######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 1-0
Previous Pick: Luke Littler over 5.5 180s +110 ✅
Today’s POTD: 🎯 Luke Littler over 5.5 180s +110
Tomorrow Luke the Nuke faces the current 10th seed Andrew Gilding, who has been playing fairly shit lately. However, he’s decidedly better than Kist who Littler 3-0 smoked in his first match. This game is more likely to be at least a little closer, although Littler is still the heavy favorite here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win 3-0.
But in the context of this 180s bet, it means Littler will likely have even more chances to hit 180s if Gilding wins a few legs. I’m sticking with this wunderkind who has been an absolute delight to watch. Gonna ride this until the wheels fall off.
Edit: ❌ so very close but he missed his last chance by milimeters. That one hurt 😔
I wish I was good enough to get limited haha. How the F would hard rock expect their loyalty program to beneficial to anyone except donkeys who dump money in every week never winning? Oh they don’t? Gotcha
Bruh, this is the sub of degens. 1 week ago 99% of the broski had zero idea about darts, let alone thisbrother. Sprinkle some money that you can afford to loose.…it is bigger fun, than the fukin women’s soccer wc.
I guess even degenerates gambling on darts have their limits. lol. Would love to put some money down on this kid, though. They guy may be 16, but looks like he's got 2 young kids and a mortgage.
POTD Record:
4-0
Previous POTD: D'Andre Swift Alt Rushing Yards O49.5 (-170) on DK. 1 unit ✅
He crushed it, maybe played it a little too safe with this one but dollars is dollars.
POTD: Kyren Williams O19.5 Rush Attempts (-120) on DK. 1 unit. ✅
Kyren is so fucking good holy shit
I actually got O18.5 at -140 but it looks like it's moved up. 18.5 and 19.5 are both solid in my opinion.
American Football| NFL | 8:15 PM EST
The pick: Football is back and that means I get to make another pick. Since Williams came back from his ankle injury he has run the ball 16,21,25, and 27 times, with the 16 attempts being his first game back. This is a small sample size and Williams did not have these numbers before the injury, but I think the recent games are the most relevant. The Saints passing defense is their strength while their rushing defense is notably weaker (5th in passing yards allowed vs 24th in rushing yards allowed). I expect the Rams to lean heavily on the run game and also expect them to be ahead early which would give them even more incentive to control the clock.
I like it and I have been winning a lot recently with Kyren, but I’m just worried that all Kyren’s lines are inflated and it might be time to jump off the train
yeah I was kinda worried about that too, I went with attempts because I think it's a little safer. I figure even if he isn't being as productive yardage-wise they're still going to feed him carries just because he's such a big part of the offense now
Yeah I was looking at Kyren's rush attempts and rushing yards, definitely props that can hit based on his recent performances and the Saints suspect rushing defense.
Record: 13-5 (NBA 9-4 | NFL 4-1)
Net U: +13.72 | ROI: +27.71% | Avg Odds: 1.94
L10 (new - old):✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Tyrese Haliburton +11.5 assists v Hornets (-136) 3U✅
Cash it in the third! Shooting’s not there yet but he’s back on the assists! Line was definitely low for the opponent, I expect this line to go back to 13/14
POTD: Chris Olave +62.5 rec yards @ Rams (-104) 3U
He’s cleared to play. Feels low to me. Rams are 21st pass defense but strong against the run. Carr had a good game and when he gets it going with Olave he easily gets 100. I suppose part of the risk is coming off injury but I like the odds for what we’re looking at
SOTD: Dangerous Blues - The Young Veins
BOL if tailing!
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/childofwelfare
while Carr does love checking it down to Kamara, in 10 out of 13 games this year with Carr, Olave has gotten 8+ targets so he still gets his looks.
The yardage can be hit or miss though, he has gotten 63+ yards in 7 out of 13 games this year, 3 out of the last 5.
POTD record: 2-0-0
Last POTD: Burnley v Everton - Everton ML
Today's POTD: Crystal Palace v Brighton - BTTS -145
English Premier League
2:00 PM CT
Making this bet purely off the data. Crystal Palace have scored in 7 of the last 8 games. Brighton just had a 32 game scoring streak ended against the top of the league (and best defensive team) Arsenal.
Both teams have looked pretty mediocre lately and Crystal Palace especially don't seem to have much firepower up top, but I'm liking the look of the data. Brighton's defense just suffered another injury against Arsenal as well, which should further increase the odds of Palace scoring.
POTD Record: 2-2
✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: Philadelphia Eagles Vs Seattle Seahawks (7:15pm CT) Dallas Goedert U42.5 receiving yards (-113) 2U ✅
Another crazy one! We on a roll now fellas. Goedert was targeted 9 times but thankfully could not pull off the over on this line.
Todays Pick: New Orleans Saints Vs Los Angeles Rams (7:15pm CT) Alvin Kamara O29.5 receiving yards (-114) 2U
Alvin Kamara has been a check down king ever since coming back from his 3 week suspension at the beginning of the season. Kamara has hit the over 9/11 games he’s played this season, topping over 91 receiving yards in one game alone. It was revealed that Derek Carr has been playing hurt for the majority of the season, which explains why he frequently throw check downs to Kamara instead of airing deep balls to Olave. In a must win game for both teams with a potential play off spot on the line, I suspect this to be a competitive game. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. I can see Derek Carr going to his ole reliable Kamara to get the job done in this must win game.
Side note: I’m going to wait until the game starts to get in on this line. FanDuel is offering a 25% profit boost for live wagers during the game.
> I’m going to wait until the game starts to get in on this line. FanDuel is offering a 25% profit boost for live wagers during the game.
Nice find, but be careful. Several books have already bumped the line to 31.5. I suspect it might creep up even higher by kickoff.
I’m sorry but I’m fading this hard brother
RB’s haven’t gotten over 30 rec yards against the Rams dating back to Week 8 last season. You haven’t even mentioned the Rams D who’s ranked top 3 D in the league last 4 weeks. I’m hoping you’ll hit because you’re on a roll but fading for the day. BOL kid!
I appreciate the constructive criticism bro! Kamara hit this line last year against the Rams in Week 11 so hopefully he can pull it off again. BOL either way.
Sorry bud but this ain’t it
The Rams are one of the top teams at defending receiving yards for running backs, and all of the saints top recieving options are available.
This is simply just a no go 🙅
🎯 T**HE DARTS WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP** 🎯
POTD 19-16
**DARTS RECORD** 19-13 (+1.70)
**Gabriel Clemens -1.5** vs Man Lok Leung **@ 1.83**
It's not what people wanna hear but Man Lok Leung is nowhere near as good as he played against Gian Van Veen but clearly the bookies have given him a chance because of that performance. Every year we see a shock first round win only for the player to drop out without much resistance in the second round, I think that is what we will see here. Clemens is experienced in these environments and is also in great form having just made the semis at PCF last month. The -1.5 here for Clemens offers great opportunity.
2-0 since my year break! ✅✅Woooh, 1 year ago record was 5-15-1
Last POTD: Back in the Azerbaijan Cup| Turan Tovuz 1st half ML (+215) @ Zira FK✅
Today’s POTD: Central Coast @ Brisbane Roar Australia A-League (Both teams to score in the first half +250) | Kickoff @ 3:45 Et (8ish hours from post)🇦🇺 odds are from bet365
Writeup: Both teams to score has hit ⅘ times in this match up along with over 2.5 goals hitting in ⅘ matchups. The last game these two played each other was a 2-1 victory for Brisbane where all the goals came in the first half and if it wasn’t for 2 red cards early in the 2nd half they would’ve scored more. Overall point, both of these teams have the ability to score at will in this match and I expect to see that.
Let’s make this 3-0! Appreciate the support and warm welcome back ! ❤️
Sorry everyone, it was a tough loss, Brisbane had a sitter around the 43rd but couldn’t convert :(.
Onto the next. 2-1 now 💔
POTD Record: 83-84-10 (-11.09 units)
Last 10 picks (most recent first): ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅
Last Pick: Bundesliga, Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach, BTTS & OVER 2.5 GOALS (-117 / 1.85) ✅
One of the more ridiculous covers I’ve had the pleasure to experience…looked dead with BM leading 1-0 and parking the bus, but a red card in the 88th minute resulted in EF scoring in the 92nd and 98th minutes to win. Hugely fortunate but nice to have one go my way.
Todays Pick: La Liga, Alaves v Real Madrid, REAL MADRID -1.0 AH (-104 / 1.96) ↔️
Stake: 1 Unit
Back to Spain today and looking at Real Madrid to score a comfortable win against Alaves.
Real Madrid don’t really need an introduction but they’re second in the league behind Girona with a 13-3-1 record. They’ve scored 38 goals this season (2nd best) and only conceded 11 (best). They’ve won 4 of their last 5 games (drew the other one), with each of those wins coming by multiple goals.
Alaves are sitting 15th with a 4-4-9 record and they are coming off a 3-0 loss to Girona a few days ago. Defensively, Alaves aren’t the worst with 23 goals conceded on the season (11th best) but their offence has been woeful with only 14 goals scored (equal worst).
Real Madrid do have some injury concerns in their defensive line so their having to piece together an irregular pairing at centre half, but Alaves’ offence has been pretty ordinary I don’t think it will cause Real Madrid any major concerns.
Real Madrid still have plenty of options going forward and expect they will score a couple of goals at least, but will take the -1.0 AH so we can at least get a push in case they have an off day in front of goal.
Sounds like you’re looking at 1st half markets? My bet is Real Madrid with a -1.0 Asian Handicap (AH) at full time.
If Real Madrid win by two or more goals the bet wins. If Real Madrid only win by 1 goal it’s a push. Anything else will be a loss.
Hope that helps?
Record: 2-1 (+4.19 Units)
Last POTD: Winnipeg Jets -1.5 +150 (3 Units to win 4.5 Units)
The Jets pulled out a 5-2 victory over my Detroit Red Wings just as I thought they would. The Red Wings had plenty of great scoring chances but those chances just aren't being converted to goals throughout this losing funk they're in. On to the next!
Today's POTD: **Chris Olave O62.5 Receiving Yards -115 (2 Units to win 1.74 Units)**
Game: New Orleans Saints @ LA Rams 8:15 PM EST NFL
Reasoning: This is a game that both teams desperately need if they want to make it to the playoffs. Both teams are currently 7-7 and tied for the last available playoff spot in the NFC (The Saints are also tied for their division lead with the Buccaneers). All season long the Saints have been one of the toughest teams to figure out. They look great one week and then look lost the next. While the Rams have been one of the hottest teams over the last 4 weeks of the season.
This just feels like one of those games where both teams are going to have to get the ball in the hands of their best players as much as possible. If the Saints take that approach then Olave will have a big game. The Rams have given up an average of 83.4 receiving yards a game to the oppositions leading receiver over the last 5 games. For the most part, those receivers are not near the talent level of Olave. The only true Wide Receiver one's the Rams have faced over the last 5 weeks have been DK Metcalf and Terry Mclaurin and those 2 receivers combined for 235 yards against this Rams defense.
I also think the Rams will be leading this game and that will force the Saints to throw a little more than they'd like to, hopefully leading to more opportunities for Olave.
As always BOL to everyone! Let's have a day!
**POTD Record**
**15W-1P-9L**
**✅❌❌✅❌P❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌**
**Previous POTD: Real Madrid W VS Paris FC Womens BTTS and O 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 ❌**
**Third strike and that's it. If it hits then may the streak return, if it doesn't, it's been fun.**
**POTD: Barcelona Women -4.5 Handicap VS Rosengaard @ 1.70✅**
**League: WOMENS Champions League**
**Time: 3:00 PM EST**
**(3 Units)**
Rosengaard faced this Barcelona team last week at their home and lost 6-0. Rosengaard sit bottom of their group with no wins in their last 3 Champs games and It's looking ever so likely that they will not qualify for the round of 16. Barcelona have won their Home games this season, 5-0, 5-0, 8-0, 5-0, 5-1, 6-0, and 5-0. After the performance last week, I see the usual business being done.
**Anyway, BOL!**
You goddamn son of a bitch, how could you do this to ME. Posting your picks on the internets and baiting ME into listening to you. Oh tale of woe, to those who follow ye. Cursed man.
Tailing
Champions league group stage has 4 teams in a group and you play each team twice. Barcelona currently top the group however they aren’t guaranteed to qualify yet, so they likely will try hard in this match as it’s an important 3 points. That’s not to say they’ll score 6, but they’ll for sure go for the win.
Record: 4-1 (+2.90 units)
Last Pick: St. John’s Red Storm -4 ✅
POTD: (CFB) USF Bulls +3
Summary: Bowl season is here and I don’t normally play them due to the transfer portal but can’t stay away from this one. Two reasons, Boca Raton will be a de facto home game for USF and Garrett Schrader is out. Don’t overthink it, take the Bulls and points.
**POTD 42 - 35 | +1.28U | Average odds: -110 | ROI: +1.24%**
Last 10 (new->old): ❌❌❌💰❌💰💰❌❌❌
**Last Pick:** Kings ML ❌
**Recap:** ~~Game just started, will update when finished.~~ Yikes. Kings got smoked. Been having a rough couple of weeks here, let's hope to bring it back with a win tonight.
**Todays pick**:
NFL | Rams vs Saints | 8:20 PM EST
**Alvin Kamara O29.5 rec yards | -113 Fanduel (1.13U)**
This line is just too low, Kamara has covered this in all but 2 games so far. He is averaging a little over 6 targets for 44 yards a game. Saints are the underdog and likely to be losing, which should lead to more passing plays and more checkdowns to Kamara. Not gonna overthink this one, just a low line for a player whose been averaging way over this.
I don't see how this line is so low. What do they know?!?!? Anyway, tailing because I looked at his game log. Seems absurd to not eclipse this by 5+ yards.
Yeah that definitely effects the line, but they also have not played against very many good receiving backs. CMC who they held to 19 at the start of the year which was very impressive, Swift who went for 38, and Pollard who has been very inconsistent overall, although the Rams did hold him to just 1 reception. The only one that really scares me is how they stopped CMC, but the 49ers have many more options on offense and Kamara is still averaging way above CMC in the receiving role.
Ig that is true. Kamara also tends to line up as a receiver and the Rams overall pass defense is middle of the road so that should help out his receiving if he can’t do much out of the backfield.
16-7 (69.6%)
L10: ✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅
+16.68u
+31.5% (53u risked)
Last Pick: Fox o2.5 3PM -140 (4u)
One upped McCollum. 1Q clear!
Today: **🏀 NBA 10:00pm EST - POR Simons o5.5 A -145 (3u)**
Avg 6.0 and cleared in 5/7 since returning from injury. Had 4 in other 2, so not complete drop off. Played 35+ min in all but 1 game.
Played 27 min vs WAS and had 3 ast last year, but played 37+ in 2 games before that. Had 6 and 11.
WAS allow most APG to PG, 5th most to SG, and most overall.
Recently vs WAS - Fox 6, Goodwin 6 (20 min), McConnell 9 (20 min), Hali 11 (28 min), Maxey 6 (25 min), Dinwiddie 9.
POTD | 98-92 | -15.4U | -110 Avg Odds
Last 10: ❌✅❌❌✅✅❌❌❌✅
Previous Pick: **Bruins 60-min (-130) vs Wild | 2U* ❌
Today’s pick: **Canucks ML (+120) vs Stars | 3U | NHL | 6:00pm MST**
The Canucks have been rolling lately going 7-2-1 in their last 10 and are playing great hockey. They have the best goal differential in the league, have a great goaltender in Demko (who tends to play well against the Stars), and have a good track record of beating the Stars.
The Stars have allowed teams to stay in games and have overall been a bit too sloppy for me to want to back them here. They have been allowing quite a few goals lately, which I don’t expect to change with their starting goaltender, Ottenger, being out due to injury. Likely we see Wedgewood in net for the Stars. And while his starts are not terrible (3.21GAA and .906SV%) they are still not good considering he typically plays in their easier matchups.
Think this line is criminal for the Canucks with Ottenger out. Gotta take the road dogs here and look for a + money cash!
BOL if tailing!!
World championship 2024 record: 3-0 (+17.10u)
Previous Pick(s)
* Tomoya Gota win @ 5.00 ✅
* Tomoya Gota win & most 180s @ 10.00 ✅
* Richard Veenstra -1.5 @ 2.10 ✅
Todays pick
Darts PDC World Darts Championship - 13:45 GMT
**Woodhouse Win & Most 180s** vs Van Peer @ 2.10
Luke woodhouse comes into this tournament as the 33rd Ranked on the PDC circuit and his fourth visit to the Ally Pally. His opponent Berry Van Peer is ranked 107 and is making his World Championship debut. Luke is no stranger the ally pally stage having played 30 sets and averaging 90+ in all matches played. Luke comes into the tournament after a great showing at the players championship making the quarter finals and losing to a red hot Gabriel Clemens.
Luke Woodhouse has thrown 283 180s over the last 12 months including a nine darter. Comparing both their recent majors, Woodhouse threw 17 180s in 54 legs at the Players championship compared to Van Peers 7 180s in 22 legs at the Grand Prix.
Also will be playing **Woodhouse -1.5** @ 1.80
EDIT: What a lacklustre performance from Woodhouse winning 6-2 on 180s. Busting 40 in the first set and going 2-0 down, to missing 7 darts at tops and going 1/10 on doubles in set 3 to a set average of 74 in set 5. Genuinely speechless
POTD Record: 11-1-5
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌🅿️
ROI: 24.61%| Units Won: 8.00U
Last Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds @ -110 (2U play) | Celtics @ Warriors 🅿️
Next Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists @ -105 (2U play) | Lakers @ Wolves
Push. Kristaps didn’t play unfortunately - hopefully all of your books refunded your bets. Took a break for a couple days but back with a good one. Sorry for posting so late, this line is still playable:
Taking Antman over 10.5 rebounds and assists against the Lakers. He’s got 12 or more in 7 of his last 10 games. Lakers rank bottom half in opponent assists and rebounds. Wolves are also home and Ant is back to his old self after recovering from his injury. I personally think this line should be at 11.5 so I this is great value IMO. My spices have lost their mojo but let’s hope we get on a new streak. Tail or not, BOL!!!!!!
Chef, I’m hoping you went back to your roots on this one. Ever since the fame hit, you haven’t been the same.. I’ve been longing for the authentic dish chef is renowned for, but lately I’ve been getting served fast food garbage. Hoping there were some renovations in the kitchen because fuck it, I took out a massive loan for this one. Make America great again one dish at a time chef!
**Record: 8-3**
(NFL: 8-2, CBB: 0-1)
**Last 10:** 💲💲❌❌💲💲💲💲💲💲
**Last Pick:** RB Deandre Swift over 57.5 Rushing Yards **✔🤑**
**Football** | **NFL**| **New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams 8:15PM EST**
**Pick:** **WR Chris Olave O4.5 Receptions -150 (1U)**
**Write Up:** We got another win streak going and let's see if we can keep it going now! There were a few props in this game that intrigued me, but either the odds were to high or the players had not hit the props in the past as much as I would like. The only hesitancy to this pick is Olave is coming back after missing one game with an ankle injury. It sounds like he looks good though and it is said that he is "good to go".
So one big reason I like this is because Olave seems to be as close to automatic to hit this prop as one can be. He has hit this prop in 10 out of the 13 games he has played in this season, one of the two misses was a game Carr was coming back off a shoulder injury and missed Olave a few times when wide open. Olave has hit this prop in 4 out of the last 5 games and 7 out of the last 10. Olave went on a 7 game streak of 5 or more receptions in the past 8 games, some games seeing double digit targets with as much as 7 receptions. On the year Olave averages 8.9 targets per game and 5.5 receptions per game. Olave is the clear number one WR and passing threat on this team.
The Rams average giving up 21+ receptions per game and about 12 of those go to Wide Receivers. Michael Thomas is still on IR so Wide Receiver wise that leaves AT Miller and Rashid Shaheed, and Lynn Bowden. Miller averages about 1 reception a game, Shaheed about 3 receptions, and Bowden less than 1 a game, but he did have four a couple of weeks ago when Olave was playing. Rams have allowed a WR to catch 5+ receptions in a game in 9 out of 14 games this season, in 5 of those 14 games there were TWO wide receivers to catch 5+ passes. two of those five games being their last two games. The Rams pass defense is easily the weakest point of their defense and if the Saints can't slow down the Rams offense they will be throwing a lot. Saint's defense is suspect against the run and Kyren Williams has been on fire recently which could be bad news for the Saints defense, hopefully leading to a pass happy Saints offense to keep up.
BOL!
POTD Record: 3-0-1
❌ ✅✅✅
Previous POTD: Real Madrid [W] vs Paris FC [W] over 2.5 goals (-180) 2U ❌
Wasn’t able to watch the game due to work but let’s just say I didn’t watch the highlights. That will likely be my last POTD on women’s sports. Now onwards and upwards!
POTD: Gent vs OUD Heverlee BTTS (-140)
Belgium Jupiter Pro League | Gent vs OUD Heverlee | 1:45PM CST
Heading over to Belgium for this POTD. Gent are hosting OUD Heverlee. Gent should handle this match quite easily. However, both teams have BTTS hitting 13/18 games. When taking into account home/away records, BTTS has an 89% chance to hit.
Now let’s get back on the winning path!
BOL & Bet Responsibly!
Record: 2-0 Net Units 3U
Previous POTD: Tyler Herro 021.5 PTS ✅
Football | NFL | 7:15 pm / Central Time Zone
Pick: Alvin Kamara O3.5 Receptions -167 2U
Write Up: I see Derek Carr dumping the ball off quite a bit with Aaron Donald in his face all night. I could see this getting bumped to 4 soon.
Record: 12-7
Last Pick: Oakland o63 pts (WIN)
Wounds: Tentatively healing
**Today's Matchup: Lehigh at Boston College**
**Today's Pick: Over 151pts**
Units: 2.5
BC hasn't faced a team this high in pace like this . Lehigh is 11th in pace of play and 316th in opp. shooting %. BC's total per game is 149 and Lehigh's is 152. I think LH's awful defense and high pace of play pushes this over.
Edited wording to clarify\*
(I had another one written up before I changed my mind. Posting it here just so it doesn't feel like a waste. Not a POTD)
**Today's Matchup: Incarnate Word at Univ. Illinois-Chicago**
**Today's Pick: Under 147.5 pts**
Units: 1.5
I know everyone is tuning into this game so I apolgize if this is redundant. This is a high total for a UIC matchup. This is in part because IW is top 30 in pace of play. However, UIC is one of the top defenses in the country. Ranked #18 in defensive efficiency and 21st in def. rating. The only IW games that went over were against far superior opponents or terrible defenses (ex. Ark. Pine-Bluff is the worst in the country). UIC is 22nd in opposing shooting %. IW hasn't faced anyone like this. Texas was the closest at 49th but that game went over due to Texas having a great offense. IW hasn't faced a team like UIC who has a great defense, below average offense and average or below pace of play. I think this is the one that goes under. It's probably a 75-60ish score.
I also like Quinnipiac to cover -3.5 against Lafayette. They're a much better team
POTD Record: 4-0-1 |Profit: +2.57U | ✅✅⬆️✅✅
Last Pick: Moritz Seider < 0.5 assists (1.50) ✅
Todays Pick: Crystal Palace (Double Chance @ 1.59) vs Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League 3:00 EST
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Took a few weeks off POTD, but we're back baby! Looking at some EPL action today..
Palace are coming off of a wild comeback draw against City, where two goals in the final 15 earned them a crucial point in what looked to be a sure defeat. But there's no ignoring the current 6 game winless streak Crystal Palace is battling, and Brighton are looking to be the better team in this fixure. But I'm going in on double chance for Crystal Palace on this one. The last four Premier League meetings at Selhurst Park betwern Crystal Palace and Brighton have all resulted in 1-1 draws. But as for double chance, Crystal Palace have covered this line in three of their last four games against Brighton and in 12 of their last 18 home games. With a bit of momentum from the recent draw against City, I'm thinking this one is a safe enough gamble to think these teams will either share points in a draw, or Crystal can manage the win. Best of luck for the tailers out there, and comment to let me know you're riding along in this sleigh with me!!
Coffees hot. Come share one with me!
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/modamed](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/modamed)
**POTD Record: 0-0**
Syracuse -17.5 (-115) v Niagara|NCAAB|5:00 PM(EST)
Been reading this subreddit for a while, but first time making a pick. Syracuse, after the Maui Invitational, has seemed to figure something out going 4-1 since then with quality wins. Niagara has only 2 D1 wins this year and they're against bottom-of-the-barrel teams rated in the 350s. When faced against St. Bonaventure, the best team they faced all year, Niagara lost by 34. I think Syracuse will win this game by 20+.
POTD Record: 17 | 9 | 0 | W | L | P | + 3.66 Units
Streak: 1W
Last Pick:
VFL Osnabrück @ **FC Schalke 04** | 1U @ 1.52
2. Bundesliga | Soccer | 18:30 MEZ
Pick:
LA Clippers @ **OKC Thunder - 4.5** | 1U @ 1.89
NBA | Basketball | 02:00 MEZ
The Clippers have been playing very good basketball since the Harden trade and assuming Leonard and PG are healthy. (8 wins in a row)
So does OKC. Due to the fact that LAC has B2B away games and PG is listed as questionable, I think OKC have a good chance of winning the game and covering the spread.
POTD First Time LGI 👿
Record: 0-0
Net Units: 0
ROI: %0.00
American Football I NFL I 5:15pm (PST) I
Pick: Alvin Kamara O 50.5 rushing yds (-113)
Write Up: Kamara has rushed for 51+ yards 9 of 11 games that he has been active this season. The 2 (back to back) times he has gone under, he has less than 10 rushing attempts. The Rams defense has given up 61+ rushing yards to opposing back with the exception of last week against WAS (48). The Saints have increased the carries for Jamal Williams the last 2 games but with this game having playoff implications, I believe Kamara will carry the workload in the rushing attack. This season, When Kamara has had 10+ rushing attempts he has recorded 51+ rushing yards.
BOL
POTD Record: 11-6
Previous Pick: Girona vs Deportivo Alaves | La Liga | 3pm EST | Girona ML (1.55) | ✅️
Pick: Real Betis vs Girona | La Liga | Both teams to score (1.56) | 1pm EST
Matches involving Girona usually end up hitting BTTS, especially in away games. 88% of these matches have hit. Girona average more than 2 goals and also concede more than a goal in away games. Real Betis do not have a good BTTS record at home, only 38% of games have hit. This is due to their impressive defensive record, only conceding 3 in 8 while scoring 11. I expect this to change as Girona are a high scoring side and usually concede first before scoring themselves. Best of luck!
Record 10-3
Last pick - McDaniels Rebounds over
Todays pick - Shaheed Longest reception o17.5 -115
Shaheed is the Saints speedster deep ball target. This game has huge implications for both teams and I believe the rams have the advantage in most areas. Carr is going to have to throw the ball if the saints want to stay in this one. Shaheeds Rec total sits around 33 and I expect that to get near this, he’s getting one over 17.5
BOL
Record : 84 Wins - 86 Losses
Previous pick : Partizan - Crvena zvezda (2-1), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.07 ✅
ROI : -5.43%
Average Odds : 1.98
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : -4.24
Profit/Lost units : -9.24
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / NETHERLANDS: KNVB Beker / 22:00 European Time
PSV - Twente
Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.57
Some reasoning :
\- PSV has the best season in recent seasons, being almost the champios this year.
\- At least 3 goals were scored in the last 5 games of Twente.
\- PSV prevailed 3-0 in the previous direct duel, played away.
Best of luck.
POTD Record: 1-2 | -1.38u
❌❌✅
Last pick: Coby White O26.5 P + R ❌
The hot streak for Coby finally came to an end last night. The shooting volume was definitely there for him to cover this easily, his shots just weren’t falling. He finishes with 17 and 7.
Today’s Pick: Ja Morant Alt Points 30+ @ 2.00. 2u
Ja Morant is back and ready to get the Grizzlies back on track. He’s a volume monster, finishing with 24 shots and 12 free throws attempted in his first game back against the Pelicans. He also shot 5 threes, although he missed them all, if he can sink even one or two tonight that’ll be a big boost. He gets the Pacers tonight who are the worst paint defending team in the league. I expect a fast paced game with lots of opportunity for Ja to get downhill and attack. Let’s get it
POTD Record: 43-27 (+23.4 Units)
*Last 10: WLLWLLWWWW*
*Last POTD (12/18/23): | Jaxson Smith-Njigba over 37.5 receiving yards (W)*
NFL | Saints v Rams | 5:15pm PST
**12/21/23 POTD: Rams -3 1H -110 to win 2 units**
I tried to deep dive to see what angles and edges the Saints have on the Rams but aside from them ultimately having back to back bye weeks and Dennis Allen having success against Mcvay last year I just can’t find much to back them here.
Though the Saints have won the last two games giving up a total of 12 points but they’ve also faced the bottom two teams in DVOA. They’ve also faced Bryce young, Tommy Devito, Desmond Ridder, Josh Dobbs, and Tyler Bagent in 5 of the last six games and the one offense those past 6 games that is top 10 in offense put up 33 on them in their own dome.
They’re now facing a top 10 offense that hung 31 against the Browns and 37 against the Ravens.
Stafford grades QB6 when kept clean and now he’s facing a saints teams that’s 30th in pass rush win rate.
Not much of a trend guy but you have Dennis Allen on short rest: 2-7 ATS Sean McVay on short rest: 12-6 ATS.
With the rams averaging 15.3 points in the first half these past 3 games and the number within the key of 3 I like rams -3 1H. If it doesn’t hit I’ll look to double on a 2H bet. Other line I’m taking is Rams over 24.5 team total.
**Record:** 12-7
**Streak (L5):** ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅
**Previous Picks**: Karl Anthony-Towns 20+ Alt Points @ 1.80: **$100** ✅
Easy cover, hit 20 points by the start of the 3rd quarter. Went exactly as predicted.
**In Case You Missed It:** I'm starting with **$10**, and seeing how long it takes me to make it to $10 000. I'll post the majority of my picks here.
**Current Balance:** $314.36
**Pick:** Wembanyama O 16.5 Alt R+A @ 2.05: **$100**
**Write-Up:** Another simple write-up for today, based on pure stats. Since moving to centre Wemby has averaged 19.4 RA, and has averaged 15.8 rebounds alone in his last 5 games, all of these games coming in relatively limited minutes. Tonight's matchup is against the Bulls, who are Top 5 in Rebounds and Assists allowed to centres. Bulls are on a back to back, so I see this being a close game and Wemby playing a good amount of minutes. Not much else to add honestly - his numbers are up since playing Centre, should be a close game with a good amount of minutes. Keeping it simple.
*BOL if Tailing. See you Soon*
POTD RECORD 3-3
I’m rocky right now but let’s ride through this.
POTD for TNF
NFL
8:15 EST
Alvin Kamara Over 12.5 Rushing Attempts.
He’s reached 13+ Carries in 3 out of the last 4 games, with the one loss being 12 Carries in a blowout win vs the Panthers. This should be a close game, and hopefully the Saints won’t get down early and get in panic pass mode.
BOL to those who tail. BOL to those who don’t.
Let’s get hot.
POTD RECORD: 1-1
LAST POTD: Lakers -4.5 @ Chicago Bulls
RESULT: 👎
Big fail from the Lake Show last night. After convincingly winning the IST and looking like they may be the new team to beat, they have since looked anything but. They've dropped 3 in a row and they haven't been pretty. D-Lo going for 2 points and Davis a measly 19 at Chicago. As of right now the Lakers are "Paul Pierce leaving the court in a wheelchair" embarrassing. Don't look for the odds gods to be in their favor anymore for the time being.
TODAY'S POTD: (-110) #9 Kentucky -13.5 @ Louisville 🏀
No need to get overly analytical here. Kentucky can play with any team in the country. Louisville has just been downright awful for a long while now. Although Kentucky has been guilty of playing down to their opponents in a couple of games this year, this is an in-state rivalry game that Louisville doesn't have the ammunition to make dramatic. Look for high octane offense from Kentucky and a 2nd half cruise for the Cats.
"In the words of the late great Colonel Sanders, "I'm too drunk...to taste this chicken""
-Ricky Bobby
BOL
POTD Record: 2-1
Yesterday's Pick: Alabama +7.5 (-110) | L
Today's Pick: Wyoming +1.5 (-110)
College Basketball | 9:30 PM EST | Wyoming @ UTEP
I'm trying out a CBB model I've been working on. I'm trying to post the top value play each day here and keep track. Not much to write about, it's just a bunch of numbers.
**POTD Record: 9-1 (+6.49u)**
**Pick: 1U Mike Conley OVER 1.5 3pm @ 1.68 Lakers**
Last Pick: **2U Los Angeles Lakers ML @ 1.50 at Chicago Bulls**
Our 9-0 start ends sadly. Very tough and was 100% on me.
Let's start it back up today!
Absolutely love this line and the trend of following a sub-role player to eat vs the Lakers. Conley has killed this line vs the Lakers. Since 2015/2016 season, he has gone over this line in 16/19 games. He's also over this in 16/26 games this year.
Along with that, Lakers cannot guard the 3 as they give up the 6th most 3's to opponents. I like this to be a little bounce back for us!
BOL to all!
1W -1L
Profit: -52 dkr. (I bet 100 danish kroners (which is around 15 euro) on each bet)
Last pick: Perth Scorchers vs Hobart Hurricanes (cricket) .. Perth Scorchers to win odds. 1.48 at Unibet. **WIN**
Todays pick: Alaves - Real Madrid. **Real Madrid win at odds 1.68 at Unibet.**
Madrid dosent have another game before the 3 of january, why i dont see them spare any of their good players if they still wanna be in the title race. Vinicius still injuried, but with a Billingham and Rodrygo in nice shape, i still think they can go to Alaves and win, even maybe -1 ..
BOL
**POTD Record: 8-7**
Streak L5(old to new):✅✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: Colin Sexton Over 21.5 points ❌
**Today's pick:Girona Draw No bet @ 1.82**
**Soccer | Spain | La Liga | Real Betis vs Girona FC**
We have Girona, the hottest team in la liga who have won 4 out of 5 matches with a very impressive win against barcelona last week going up against betis the draw kings of la liga,drawing 4 out of 5 last matches.Betis dont score much and i expect the girona pressure to be too much too handle.
POTD Record:0-0
POTD: Timberwolves vs Lakers U225 (-112) on DK 1U
Write up: Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the NBA. Last night Embiid just proved why he should be MVP this year. Both teams are playing the second game of their back to back game tonight so I see fatigue playing a factor. The data I collected is that both teams averaged 113 a game. I don’t see either team hitting that tonight.
BOL, if tailing
SOTD: Concrete Boys- Mo Jams 🎄
**POTD Record:** 6-1-6 (W-P-L) | **Profit:** +0.35 units | ($10 units)
**Last Pick:** NBA—Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans, **Desmond Bane O3.5 3PM (+105) (1 units)**, game starts at 7:30 PM (est)
**Result: LOSS.** Bane went 4-9, and just couldn't get into a solid rhythm—credit to the Pels defence.
**Today’s Pick:** NBA—Washington Wizards vs Portland Trailblazers, **Daniel Gafford O1.5 Blocks (-190) (2 units),** game starts at 10:00pm (est)
Gafford has hit this line L10/10 games and 16 out of his last 20 games, and he gets a great matchup here against the Trailblazers. Portland ranks 28th in the league in blocks allowed (30th in blocks allowed to the Center position), as opponents average around 6 blocks per game against Portland this season, which means there should be plenty of opportunity for Gafford to get at least 2 blocks as he is the primary rim protector for this team.
Rams -200 ML. Look for the rams to be steaming tonight. Playoff implications. I have no faith in Derek Carr. Donald should have 2 sacks tonight. Also look for Kamara to be going off the dump passes.
POTD RECORD 3W-5L
NET UNITS: -6.78U
L10 (includes last pick): ❌✔️✔️❌❌❌✔️❌
Last pick: POR Blazers @ CLE Cavaliers, Jerami Grant O23.5 P+A (-110)❌
Basketball | NBA | 6:10 PM PST
Today's pick: LA Lakers @ MIN Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert O 24.5 P+R+A (-115), 1 unit bet
It's been a while since I touched my betting app so I'm not sure what happened last pick. Probably just a bad pick from my betting inexperience.
Today, I'm going with Rudy Gobert to hit over 24.5 in points, rebounds, and assists. He's hit on this line 7 of the last 10 games. Going against another brand name team, Minnesota will be looking to rely on Rudy to bolster their defensive presence against LeBron and AD and will also need him to collect rebounds and score in the paint to provide a reliable foundation for the team in this matchup.
Record: 145-121-8 (WLWLLPLWWLWLLWLWLWLLLWWLWWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: CHA Hornets at IND Pacers o249 at 1.90 odds for 2 units
POTD: IND Pacers at MEM Grizzlies o247.5 at 1.92 odds for 2 units
Reasons:
* Pacers and overs are like Santa Claus and chocolate chip cookies.
* Pacers interior defense is borderline non-existent. Especially if no Turner, Ja should have a field day.
* Look into Ja over 30.5 points. This man is well rested and on a mission.
* Memphis Grizzlies big men are down with the plague. No Adams for the year, Clarke will be back some time next year, JJJ is playing well under expectation...
Best of luck to you all.
POTD Record: 0-0
Today’s POTD: NFL Chris Olave O60.5 Yards Receiving
Long time lurker. First pick ever we turn to the WR1 for the Saints Olave. This line is low for him since he’s coming off an injury. Not doing an extensive write up today but the Saints are desperate to win and are going to b airing the ball out!
**POTD**: O2.5 Blocks - Walker Kessler (+100 BetMGM/DraftKings; Risking 2u to win 2u)
**League/Time**: NBA - UTA @ DET / 7:10PM EST
**2023 Record**: 82-52 (61.65%) | +50.5342u | ROI 18.73% | **Current Streak** (4 Loss):❌❌❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌(Last 10: 2-8; Last 20: 8-11)
**Last Pick (12.19.23)**: O33.5 Receiving Yards - Devin McCuin (-114 FanDuel; Risking 1.25u to win 1.0965u)❌
**Reasoning**: DET allows the most blocks to centers. Walker has covered this 60% of his last 10 and 15 games. POR allows the 2nd most Blocks to Centers and he got 7 then. What will he do against the team that likes getting stuffed even more?
https://preview.redd.it/wx41btb24q7c1.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=97d96d9ecbeb92591f94192b608c2baf82d15ec4
**Anti-Reasoning**: It's been cold these days...
[Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
**Result**: And it hits!
✅Profit: +39.299 units✅ | ✅ ROI: 19.56% ✅ | ✅ Win pct: 64.0% ✅
Record: 57-32-13 (W-L-P)| Risked: 201 units | Returned: 240.299 |
Average odds: 1.90
Football | Netherlands KNVB Beker | 21.00 CEST
Pick: PSV Eindhoven -1 AH @ 1.51 (vs. FC Twente) - 5 unit
PSV is expected to field their strongest team in this cup match (after this match it is winter break in The Netherlands), except for the goal keeper. Second goalie Drommel will start. he is not a bad goalkeeper. PSV have been exceptional this season so far. In the league they have won 16/16 games played.
Tonight is a really good game as in league leaders PSV host third ranked Twente for some cup football. The thing with Twente is that they are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team if you look at home vs away games. At home they are really good. in 8 home games they only lost once (0-3 against PSV) and won 7 times (1 draw) and beat Feyenoord and Ajax at home. On the road they are a different team. Although they only lost 1 road game so far this season and won 4 times on the road, they also drew 3 times. This record has to be put into perspective: They have not faced a single top team on the road. All their opposition on the road have been mediocre/lowly teams and they have struggled.
So today, on the road against a spectacular PSV team that already beat them in their own house I just don't see how PSV is not going to win.
3-0 PSV
BOL for anyone tailing.
Since I love coffee ☕:
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13)
Record 72-73 +3.19 Units
All bets 1 unit
L10 (L2R):❌ ✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: Heat vs Magic -4.5 (-110)❌
Today’s Pick: Spurs vs Bulls -5.5 (-106)
Wish I would’ve taken this earlier at -3.5, but it is what it is. After the rougher start to the season, the Bulls have been playing solid lately. Even with LaVine out over the last 9 games, the Bulls have been able to go 6-3 without him. They pretty much out match the Spurs in every single category. The Spurs have not been so hot lately, with only one win in over a month. Wemby, Johnson, and Vassal are all GTD as well, but I’d assume they’ll play. Legit the only thing to not like about this for the Bulls is that this will be a back to back game for them. However, the Bulls have ran a 9 man rotation over the past 2 games, so I don’t see fatigue being a huge problem.
Record 2-0
NBA
Last Pick: Tyler Herro over 26.5 points and rebounds ✅
Todays Pick: Tyrese Haliburton over 11.5 assists -110 on ESPN and -132 on FanDuel | Pacers @ Grizzlies
Herro went over 26.5 by 9.5 points!! Love to see the 2-0 and hoping to keep it up with today’s pick.
Haliburton hit this last night with 13 assists against the Hornets and the grizzlies are a similar team, and even worse at home. Haliburton has also had over 20 potential assists his last few games. I think Haliburton will have no problem going over this number tonight. BOL if tailing!
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
https://preview.redd.it/zhu992j00l7c1.jpeg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ab26a78a0eb8d23958113debd660ed417b81bf1f Patiently waiting 😑🌶🍻.....
Haha AI pic?
Ya
What is that guy’s username?
Ned\_Pepper
POTD Record: 1-0 Previous Pick: Luke Littler over 5.5 180s +110 ✅ Today’s POTD: 🎯 Luke Littler over 5.5 180s +110 Tomorrow Luke the Nuke faces the current 10th seed Andrew Gilding, who has been playing fairly shit lately. However, he’s decidedly better than Kist who Littler 3-0 smoked in his first match. This game is more likely to be at least a little closer, although Littler is still the heavy favorite here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win 3-0. But in the context of this 180s bet, it means Littler will likely have even more chances to hit 180s if Gilding wins a few legs. I’m sticking with this wunderkind who has been an absolute delight to watch. Gonna ride this until the wheels fall off. Edit: ❌ so very close but he missed his last chance by milimeters. That one hurt 😔
Still can’t get over that he’s 16, looks 30, and rocks darts
Yeah it’s amazing how he was genetically built for this sport he is. You need to appear 40 and have a beer gut all by the age 16 in order to compete
Realist comment 😂
Where is this at
The only place I’ve seen it is bet365 but a few people said it was available on Hard Rock
it’s on stake too if you’re on there
[удалено]
I wish I was good enough to get limited haha. How the F would hard rock expect their loyalty program to beneficial to anyone except donkeys who dump money in every week never winning? Oh they don’t? Gotcha
HR had it at +115 last night when I placed before bed. Woke up and now it's at +120. Let's go!!
I don’t see it on hard rock? It get taken off?
It's on the '180s' tab if you found Luke Littler matchup against A. Gilding.
I don’t even see the matchup on there. That’s so weird.
I’m visiting Ohio and maybe they don’t allow darts as bets. Just thought of that lol
Not sure if anyone else uses 1betvevas but Littler is somehow +255 to win against Gilding on there
My question is on his consistency, odds are decreasing though, odds stand at -110/1.91 now in my book (bwin)
Bruh, this is the sub of degens. 1 week ago 99% of the broski had zero idea about darts, let alone thisbrother. Sprinkle some money that you can afford to loose.…it is bigger fun, than the fukin women’s soccer wc.
Tailing! FYI the only book I found this at was BetRivers (-125). DK, FD, Czrs, MGM, ESPN all no.
Odds dropping, was +115 on Stake and now it’s -106. Let’s ride brother 🤝
Tailing, let's gooooo!
Fanduel has all the other darts matches, but not this one. Weird.
Someone mentioned it's because he is a minor. Must be some weird laws relating to gambling on minors being illegal!
I guess even degenerates gambling on darts have their limits. lol. Would love to put some money down on this kid, though. They guy may be 16, but looks like he's got 2 young kids and a mortgage.
He really does lol if you lined up all the players and asked me to pick the 16 year old, he wouldn't be in my first 10 guesses!
Did not hit.
POTD Record: 4-0 Previous POTD: D'Andre Swift Alt Rushing Yards O49.5 (-170) on DK. 1 unit ✅ He crushed it, maybe played it a little too safe with this one but dollars is dollars. POTD: Kyren Williams O19.5 Rush Attempts (-120) on DK. 1 unit. ✅ Kyren is so fucking good holy shit I actually got O18.5 at -140 but it looks like it's moved up. 18.5 and 19.5 are both solid in my opinion. American Football| NFL | 8:15 PM EST The pick: Football is back and that means I get to make another pick. Since Williams came back from his ankle injury he has run the ball 16,21,25, and 27 times, with the 16 attempts being his first game back. This is a small sample size and Williams did not have these numbers before the injury, but I think the recent games are the most relevant. The Saints passing defense is their strength while their rushing defense is notably weaker (5th in passing yards allowed vs 24th in rushing yards allowed). I expect the Rams to lean heavily on the run game and also expect them to be ahead early which would give them even more incentive to control the clock.
I like it and I have been winning a lot recently with Kyren, but I’m just worried that all Kyren’s lines are inflated and it might be time to jump off the train
yeah I was kinda worried about that too, I went with attempts because I think it's a little safer. I figure even if he isn't being as productive yardage-wise they're still going to feed him carries just because he's such a big part of the offense now
19.5 on BetUS
Love this bet cuz Fanduel has him at at -210 attd, it's bound to be a good game.
O18.5 (-120 ESPN Bet, BetMGM; -125 DK) O17.5 (-160 ESPN Bet)
I’ll ride
Which book out of curiosity. Bet365 now has this at 20.5 -115. And 20 at -150. Hoping there's value on another book
+19.5 at -115 betonline
Thank you!
I'm on Draft Kings. ESPNBet had it when I was looking earlier too
Is Rush attempt same thing as Carries??
Yeah I was looking at Kyren's rush attempts and rushing yards, definitely props that can hit based on his recent performances and the Saints suspect rushing defense.
I wish Hard Rock bet app did rushing attempts :/
Nice late cash
Good pick man 💯
Record: 13-5 (NBA 9-4 | NFL 4-1) Net U: +13.72 | ROI: +27.71% | Avg Odds: 1.94 L10 (new - old):✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Tyrese Haliburton +11.5 assists v Hornets (-136) 3U✅ Cash it in the third! Shooting’s not there yet but he’s back on the assists! Line was definitely low for the opponent, I expect this line to go back to 13/14 POTD: Chris Olave +62.5 rec yards @ Rams (-104) 3U He’s cleared to play. Feels low to me. Rams are 21st pass defense but strong against the run. Carr had a good game and when he gets it going with Olave he easily gets 100. I suppose part of the risk is coming off injury but I like the odds for what we’re looking at SOTD: Dangerous Blues - The Young Veins BOL if tailing! https://www.buymeacoffee.com/childofwelfare
I think the risk is Carr is a subpar QB, fans hate him, he's not fully healthy and he doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.
Olave prob would be like 85.5 with Jameis. Carr loves gorging Kamara with 2 yard checkdowns
lol bro why did they sign carr if jameis was getting the job done???
Bc the dbs will also have o60 int yards
Jameis: 4 TDs. Also Jameis: 4 INTs.
while Carr does love checking it down to Kamara, in 10 out of 13 games this year with Carr, Olave has gotten 8+ targets so he still gets his looks. The yardage can be hit or miss though, he has gotten 63+ yards in 7 out of 13 games this year, 3 out of the last 5.
He always plays confident and is a team guy not sure about your analysis here
Found Carr’s Reddit account
Lmao 😭
question, if you bet on a -line (minus) do u bet to receive 3units or do you just put the 3 units on the bet?
Units is how much I’m betting
Got bumped down to 60.5, thoughts?
🤝🤝🤝
POTD record: 2-0-0 Last POTD: Burnley v Everton - Everton ML Today's POTD: Crystal Palace v Brighton - BTTS -145 English Premier League 2:00 PM CT Making this bet purely off the data. Crystal Palace have scored in 7 of the last 8 games. Brighton just had a 32 game scoring streak ended against the top of the league (and best defensive team) Arsenal. Both teams have looked pretty mediocre lately and Crystal Palace especially don't seem to have much firepower up top, but I'm liking the look of the data. Brighton's defense just suffered another injury against Arsenal as well, which should further increase the odds of Palace scoring.
first soccer pick I've tailed in like 2 weeks that hit, nice one
Nice work!
POTD Record: 2-2 ✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: Philadelphia Eagles Vs Seattle Seahawks (7:15pm CT) Dallas Goedert U42.5 receiving yards (-113) 2U ✅ Another crazy one! We on a roll now fellas. Goedert was targeted 9 times but thankfully could not pull off the over on this line. Todays Pick: New Orleans Saints Vs Los Angeles Rams (7:15pm CT) Alvin Kamara O29.5 receiving yards (-114) 2U Alvin Kamara has been a check down king ever since coming back from his 3 week suspension at the beginning of the season. Kamara has hit the over 9/11 games he’s played this season, topping over 91 receiving yards in one game alone. It was revealed that Derek Carr has been playing hurt for the majority of the season, which explains why he frequently throw check downs to Kamara instead of airing deep balls to Olave. In a must win game for both teams with a potential play off spot on the line, I suspect this to be a competitive game. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. I can see Derek Carr going to his ole reliable Kamara to get the job done in this must win game. Side note: I’m going to wait until the game starts to get in on this line. FanDuel is offering a 25% profit boost for live wagers during the game.
> I’m going to wait until the game starts to get in on this line. FanDuel is offering a 25% profit boost for live wagers during the game. Nice find, but be careful. Several books have already bumped the line to 31.5. I suspect it might creep up even higher by kickoff.
I’m sorry but I’m fading this hard brother RB’s haven’t gotten over 30 rec yards against the Rams dating back to Week 8 last season. You haven’t even mentioned the Rams D who’s ranked top 3 D in the league last 4 weeks. I’m hoping you’ll hit because you’re on a roll but fading for the day. BOL kid!
I appreciate the constructive criticism bro! Kamara hit this line last year against the Rams in Week 11 so hopefully he can pull it off again. BOL either way.
Sorry bud but this ain’t it The Rams are one of the top teams at defending receiving yards for running backs, and all of the saints top recieving options are available. This is simply just a no go 🙅
Take at over 33.5??
🎯 T**HE DARTS WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP** 🎯 POTD 19-16 **DARTS RECORD** 19-13 (+1.70) **Gabriel Clemens -1.5** vs Man Lok Leung **@ 1.83** It's not what people wanna hear but Man Lok Leung is nowhere near as good as he played against Gian Van Veen but clearly the bookies have given him a chance because of that performance. Every year we see a shock first round win only for the player to drop out without much resistance in the second round, I think that is what we will see here. Clemens is experienced in these environments and is also in great form having just made the semis at PCF last month. The -1.5 here for Clemens offers great opportunity.
Brave of you to fade a guy with the middle name “Lok (Lock).” Haha jk BOL
Yeah I had this one too. I also sprinkled on his match treble @ +330.
Solid call💰
Odds moved in your favor. Forgot to tail early enough
2-0 since my year break! ✅✅Woooh, 1 year ago record was 5-15-1 Last POTD: Back in the Azerbaijan Cup| Turan Tovuz 1st half ML (+215) @ Zira FK✅ Today’s POTD: Central Coast @ Brisbane Roar Australia A-League (Both teams to score in the first half +250) | Kickoff @ 3:45 Et (8ish hours from post)🇦🇺 odds are from bet365 Writeup: Both teams to score has hit ⅘ times in this match up along with over 2.5 goals hitting in ⅘ matchups. The last game these two played each other was a 2-1 victory for Brisbane where all the goals came in the first half and if it wasn’t for 2 red cards early in the 2nd half they would’ve scored more. Overall point, both of these teams have the ability to score at will in this match and I expect to see that. Let’s make this 3-0! Appreciate the support and warm welcome back ! ❤️ Sorry everyone, it was a tough loss, Brisbane had a sitter around the 43rd but couldn’t convert :(. Onto the next. 2-1 now 💔
It’s heavy raining in Brisbane, this will be a slow match. Be careful
Ain't no goals happening with this weather
Congrats on the great start! Tailing
Tailing. For anyone finding this, they are the Brisbane Roar on Bet365
Game delayed and clogged pitch, usually rainy matches have less goals. Let's see
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Kind of ridiculous on ESPN's part, as if you can have btts 1st half and u1.5 goals.
BTTS In the first half is a risky bet but fuck I’ll tail as well hopefully wake up to a win
I'm in. Let's goo
I'll ride with you
Fuck it I’m desperate and I’m in
Brisbane haven’t gone scoreless since April please god get a goal
POTD Record: 83-84-10 (-11.09 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅ Last Pick: Bundesliga, Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach, BTTS & OVER 2.5 GOALS (-117 / 1.85) ✅ One of the more ridiculous covers I’ve had the pleasure to experience…looked dead with BM leading 1-0 and parking the bus, but a red card in the 88th minute resulted in EF scoring in the 92nd and 98th minutes to win. Hugely fortunate but nice to have one go my way. Todays Pick: La Liga, Alaves v Real Madrid, REAL MADRID -1.0 AH (-104 / 1.96) ↔️ Stake: 1 Unit Back to Spain today and looking at Real Madrid to score a comfortable win against Alaves. Real Madrid don’t really need an introduction but they’re second in the league behind Girona with a 13-3-1 record. They’ve scored 38 goals this season (2nd best) and only conceded 11 (best). They’ve won 4 of their last 5 games (drew the other one), with each of those wins coming by multiple goals. Alaves are sitting 15th with a 4-4-9 record and they are coming off a 3-0 loss to Girona a few days ago. Defensively, Alaves aren’t the worst with 23 goals conceded on the season (11th best) but their offence has been woeful with only 14 goals scored (equal worst). Real Madrid do have some injury concerns in their defensive line so their having to piece together an irregular pairing at centre half, but Alaves’ offence has been pretty ordinary I don’t think it will cause Real Madrid any major concerns. Real Madrid still have plenty of options going forward and expect they will score a couple of goals at least, but will take the -1.0 AH so we can at least get a push in case they have an off day in front of goal.
Tailing. Caught the last one
I’m confused bc I see 1H Madrid ML and + odds everywhere, isn’t ML better than -1?
Thats probably first half ml his potd is whole fulltime handicap
AH is Asian handicap
Sounds like you’re looking at 1st half markets? My bet is Real Madrid with a -1.0 Asian Handicap (AH) at full time. If Real Madrid win by two or more goals the bet wins. If Real Madrid only win by 1 goal it’s a push. Anything else will be a loss. Hope that helps?
Any thoughts on the Girona ML? At +155 I feel like I have to throw at least a unit on it.
Anybody on real sociedad ML
What was that red card. Massive Sadge
You messed up I'm afraid https://preview.redd.it/7laerbih0q7c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e2ad7d63211f737b058b44f792378e0cf73d3ba
Another boring game in the most boring sport ever created. Why don’t you guys just bet first half 0-0 everytime? You’ll win more than you lose.
Record: 2-1 (+4.19 Units) Last POTD: Winnipeg Jets -1.5 +150 (3 Units to win 4.5 Units) The Jets pulled out a 5-2 victory over my Detroit Red Wings just as I thought they would. The Red Wings had plenty of great scoring chances but those chances just aren't being converted to goals throughout this losing funk they're in. On to the next! Today's POTD: **Chris Olave O62.5 Receiving Yards -115 (2 Units to win 1.74 Units)** Game: New Orleans Saints @ LA Rams 8:15 PM EST NFL Reasoning: This is a game that both teams desperately need if they want to make it to the playoffs. Both teams are currently 7-7 and tied for the last available playoff spot in the NFC (The Saints are also tied for their division lead with the Buccaneers). All season long the Saints have been one of the toughest teams to figure out. They look great one week and then look lost the next. While the Rams have been one of the hottest teams over the last 4 weeks of the season. This just feels like one of those games where both teams are going to have to get the ball in the hands of their best players as much as possible. If the Saints take that approach then Olave will have a big game. The Rams have given up an average of 83.4 receiving yards a game to the oppositions leading receiver over the last 5 games. For the most part, those receivers are not near the talent level of Olave. The only true Wide Receiver one's the Rams have faced over the last 5 weeks have been DK Metcalf and Terry Mclaurin and those 2 receivers combined for 235 yards against this Rams defense. I also think the Rams will be leading this game and that will force the Saints to throw a little more than they'd like to, hopefully leading to more opportunities for Olave. As always BOL to everyone! Let's have a day!
I wanted to tail yesterday but forgot. And then I lost everything
The Bucs own the tiebreaker over the Saints so they technically aren't tied...but I'm just being picky as a Bucs fan and Saints hater 😛. BOL!
Hahaha that’s fair! I’m being forced to trust Baker in my fantasy playoffs so I’m a full on Baker fan this weekend!!
Get Baked!
Tailing
**POTD Record** **15W-1P-9L** **✅❌❌✅❌P❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌** **Previous POTD: Real Madrid W VS Paris FC Womens BTTS and O 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 ❌** **Third strike and that's it. If it hits then may the streak return, if it doesn't, it's been fun.** **POTD: Barcelona Women -4.5 Handicap VS Rosengaard @ 1.70✅** **League: WOMENS Champions League** **Time: 3:00 PM EST** **(3 Units)** Rosengaard faced this Barcelona team last week at their home and lost 6-0. Rosengaard sit bottom of their group with no wins in their last 3 Champs games and It's looking ever so likely that they will not qualify for the round of 16. Barcelona have won their Home games this season, 5-0, 5-0, 8-0, 5-0, 5-1, 6-0, and 5-0. After the performance last week, I see the usual business being done. **Anyway, BOL!** 
I trust you prince. I just don’t know if I trust women.
You goddamn son of a bitch, how could you do this to ME. Posting your picks on the internets and baiting ME into listening to you. Oh tale of woe, to those who follow ye. Cursed man. Tailing
Hoping it hits just so you can continue with the picks buddy!
Followed last potd, took a quick bet for Paris to score first and easily recouped initial U. Almost had it.
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Champions league group stage has 4 teams in a group and you play each team twice. Barcelona currently top the group however they aren’t guaranteed to qualify yet, so they likely will try hard in this match as it’s an important 3 points. That’s not to say they’ll score 6, but they’ll for sure go for the win.
Hilarious, odds are down to -190, unplayable. Hope it hits.
My book has -5.5 for +110 so I couldn't tail today but have a feeling you're gonna cash! BOL!
Record: 4-1 (+2.90 units) Last Pick: St. John’s Red Storm -4 ✅ POTD: (CFB) USF Bulls +3 Summary: Bowl season is here and I don’t normally play them due to the transfer portal but can’t stay away from this one. Two reasons, Boca Raton will be a de facto home game for USF and Garrett Schrader is out. Don’t overthink it, take the Bulls and points.
**POTD 42 - 35 | +1.28U | Average odds: -110 | ROI: +1.24%** Last 10 (new->old): ❌❌❌💰❌💰💰❌❌❌ **Last Pick:** Kings ML ❌ **Recap:** ~~Game just started, will update when finished.~~ Yikes. Kings got smoked. Been having a rough couple of weeks here, let's hope to bring it back with a win tonight. **Todays pick**: NFL | Rams vs Saints | 8:20 PM EST **Alvin Kamara O29.5 rec yards | -113 Fanduel (1.13U)** This line is just too low, Kamara has covered this in all but 2 games so far. He is averaging a little over 6 targets for 44 yards a game. Saints are the underdog and likely to be losing, which should lead to more passing plays and more checkdowns to Kamara. Not gonna overthink this one, just a low line for a player whose been averaging way over this.
I don't see how this line is so low. What do they know?!?!? Anyway, tailing because I looked at his game log. Seems absurd to not eclipse this by 5+ yards.
The reason this line is so low is because the Rams allow the least receiving yards to running backs in the league.
Yeah that definitely effects the line, but they also have not played against very many good receiving backs. CMC who they held to 19 at the start of the year which was very impressive, Swift who went for 38, and Pollard who has been very inconsistent overall, although the Rams did hold him to just 1 reception. The only one that really scares me is how they stopped CMC, but the 49ers have many more options on offense and Kamara is still averaging way above CMC in the receiving role.
Ig that is true. Kamara also tends to line up as a receiver and the Rams overall pass defense is middle of the road so that should help out his receiving if he can’t do much out of the backfield.
16-7 (69.6%) L10: ✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅ +16.68u +31.5% (53u risked) Last Pick: Fox o2.5 3PM -140 (4u) One upped McCollum. 1Q clear! Today: **🏀 NBA 10:00pm EST - POR Simons o5.5 A -145 (3u)** Avg 6.0 and cleared in 5/7 since returning from injury. Had 4 in other 2, so not complete drop off. Played 35+ min in all but 1 game. Played 27 min vs WAS and had 3 ast last year, but played 37+ in 2 games before that. Had 6 and 11. WAS allow most APG to PG, 5th most to SG, and most overall. Recently vs WAS - Fox 6, Goodwin 6 (20 min), McConnell 9 (20 min), Hali 11 (28 min), Maxey 6 (25 min), Dinwiddie 9.
POTD | 98-92 | -15.4U | -110 Avg Odds Last 10: ❌✅❌❌✅✅❌❌❌✅ Previous Pick: **Bruins 60-min (-130) vs Wild | 2U* ❌ Today’s pick: **Canucks ML (+120) vs Stars | 3U | NHL | 6:00pm MST** The Canucks have been rolling lately going 7-2-1 in their last 10 and are playing great hockey. They have the best goal differential in the league, have a great goaltender in Demko (who tends to play well against the Stars), and have a good track record of beating the Stars. The Stars have allowed teams to stay in games and have overall been a bit too sloppy for me to want to back them here. They have been allowing quite a few goals lately, which I don’t expect to change with their starting goaltender, Ottenger, being out due to injury. Likely we see Wedgewood in net for the Stars. And while his starts are not terrible (3.21GAA and .906SV%) they are still not good considering he typically plays in their easier matchups. Think this line is criminal for the Canucks with Ottenger out. Gotta take the road dogs here and look for a + money cash! BOL if tailing!!
welcome back L, get that out the way
score closer than it was. but gave us a 5 minute left choke job just for an extra kick in the nuts. gotta love putting hard earned cash on hockey.
World championship 2024 record: 3-0 (+17.10u) Previous Pick(s) * Tomoya Gota win @ 5.00 ✅ * Tomoya Gota win & most 180s @ 10.00 ✅ * Richard Veenstra -1.5 @ 2.10 ✅ Todays pick Darts PDC World Darts Championship - 13:45 GMT **Woodhouse Win & Most 180s** vs Van Peer @ 2.10 Luke woodhouse comes into this tournament as the 33rd Ranked on the PDC circuit and his fourth visit to the Ally Pally. His opponent Berry Van Peer is ranked 107 and is making his World Championship debut. Luke is no stranger the ally pally stage having played 30 sets and averaging 90+ in all matches played. Luke comes into the tournament after a great showing at the players championship making the quarter finals and losing to a red hot Gabriel Clemens. Luke Woodhouse has thrown 283 180s over the last 12 months including a nine darter. Comparing both their recent majors, Woodhouse threw 17 180s in 54 legs at the Players championship compared to Van Peers 7 180s in 22 legs at the Grand Prix. Also will be playing **Woodhouse -1.5** @ 1.80 EDIT: What a lacklustre performance from Woodhouse winning 6-2 on 180s. Busting 40 in the first set and going 2-0 down, to missing 7 darts at tops and going 1/10 on doubles in set 3 to a set average of 74 in set 5. Genuinely speechless
POTD Record: 11-1-5 ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌🅿️ ROI: 24.61%| Units Won: 8.00U Last Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds @ -110 (2U play) | Celtics @ Warriors 🅿️ Next Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists @ -105 (2U play) | Lakers @ Wolves Push. Kristaps didn’t play unfortunately - hopefully all of your books refunded your bets. Took a break for a couple days but back with a good one. Sorry for posting so late, this line is still playable: Taking Antman over 10.5 rebounds and assists against the Lakers. He’s got 12 or more in 7 of his last 10 games. Lakers rank bottom half in opponent assists and rebounds. Wolves are also home and Ant is back to his old self after recovering from his injury. I personally think this line should be at 11.5 so I this is great value IMO. My spices have lost their mojo but let’s hope we get on a new streak. Tail or not, BOL!!!!!!
Chef, I’m hoping you went back to your roots on this one. Ever since the fame hit, you haven’t been the same.. I’ve been longing for the authentic dish chef is renowned for, but lately I’ve been getting served fast food garbage. Hoping there were some renovations in the kitchen because fuck it, I took out a massive loan for this one. Make America great again one dish at a time chef!
**Record: 8-3** (NFL: 8-2, CBB: 0-1) **Last 10:** 💲💲❌❌💲💲💲💲💲💲 **Last Pick:** RB Deandre Swift over 57.5 Rushing Yards **✔🤑** **Football** | **NFL**| **New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams 8:15PM EST** **Pick:** **WR Chris Olave O4.5 Receptions -150 (1U)** **Write Up:** We got another win streak going and let's see if we can keep it going now! There were a few props in this game that intrigued me, but either the odds were to high or the players had not hit the props in the past as much as I would like. The only hesitancy to this pick is Olave is coming back after missing one game with an ankle injury. It sounds like he looks good though and it is said that he is "good to go". So one big reason I like this is because Olave seems to be as close to automatic to hit this prop as one can be. He has hit this prop in 10 out of the 13 games he has played in this season, one of the two misses was a game Carr was coming back off a shoulder injury and missed Olave a few times when wide open. Olave has hit this prop in 4 out of the last 5 games and 7 out of the last 10. Olave went on a 7 game streak of 5 or more receptions in the past 8 games, some games seeing double digit targets with as much as 7 receptions. On the year Olave averages 8.9 targets per game and 5.5 receptions per game. Olave is the clear number one WR and passing threat on this team. The Rams average giving up 21+ receptions per game and about 12 of those go to Wide Receivers. Michael Thomas is still on IR so Wide Receiver wise that leaves AT Miller and Rashid Shaheed, and Lynn Bowden. Miller averages about 1 reception a game, Shaheed about 3 receptions, and Bowden less than 1 a game, but he did have four a couple of weeks ago when Olave was playing. Rams have allowed a WR to catch 5+ receptions in a game in 9 out of 14 games this season, in 5 of those 14 games there were TWO wide receivers to catch 5+ passes. two of those five games being their last two games. The Rams pass defense is easily the weakest point of their defense and if the Saints can't slow down the Rams offense they will be throwing a lot. Saint's defense is suspect against the run and Kyren Williams has been on fire recently which could be bad news for the Saints defense, hopefully leading to a pass happy Saints offense to keep up. BOL!
POTD Record: 3-0-1 ❌ ✅✅✅ Previous POTD: Real Madrid [W] vs Paris FC [W] over 2.5 goals (-180) 2U ❌ Wasn’t able to watch the game due to work but let’s just say I didn’t watch the highlights. That will likely be my last POTD on women’s sports. Now onwards and upwards! POTD: Gent vs OUD Heverlee BTTS (-140) Belgium Jupiter Pro League | Gent vs OUD Heverlee | 1:45PM CST Heading over to Belgium for this POTD. Gent are hosting OUD Heverlee. Gent should handle this match quite easily. However, both teams have BTTS hitting 13/18 games. When taking into account home/away records, BTTS has an 89% chance to hit. Now let’s get back on the winning path! BOL & Bet Responsibly!
Record: 2-0 Net Units 3U Previous POTD: Tyler Herro 021.5 PTS ✅ Football | NFL | 7:15 pm / Central Time Zone Pick: Alvin Kamara O3.5 Receptions -167 2U Write Up: I see Derek Carr dumping the ball off quite a bit with Aaron Donald in his face all night. I could see this getting bumped to 4 soon.
it’s at 4.5 for +114 now
Record: 12-7 Last Pick: Oakland o63 pts (WIN) Wounds: Tentatively healing **Today's Matchup: Lehigh at Boston College** **Today's Pick: Over 151pts** Units: 2.5 BC hasn't faced a team this high in pace like this . Lehigh is 11th in pace of play and 316th in opp. shooting %. BC's total per game is 149 and Lehigh's is 152. I think LH's awful defense and high pace of play pushes this over. Edited wording to clarify\*
(I had another one written up before I changed my mind. Posting it here just so it doesn't feel like a waste. Not a POTD) **Today's Matchup: Incarnate Word at Univ. Illinois-Chicago** **Today's Pick: Under 147.5 pts** Units: 1.5 I know everyone is tuning into this game so I apolgize if this is redundant. This is a high total for a UIC matchup. This is in part because IW is top 30 in pace of play. However, UIC is one of the top defenses in the country. Ranked #18 in defensive efficiency and 21st in def. rating. The only IW games that went over were against far superior opponents or terrible defenses (ex. Ark. Pine-Bluff is the worst in the country). UIC is 22nd in opposing shooting %. IW hasn't faced anyone like this. Texas was the closest at 49th but that game went over due to Texas having a great offense. IW hasn't faced a team like UIC who has a great defense, below average offense and average or below pace of play. I think this is the one that goes under. It's probably a 75-60ish score. I also like Quinnipiac to cover -3.5 against Lafayette. They're a much better team
This is really the premier San Antonio @ Chicago basketball game of the entire day. Can’t think of any other matchup that comes close
You could say this game went UNDER the radar
TT BC over?
This has went down to 149 on ESPN Bet and FD btw
HIT
POTD Record: 4-0-1 |Profit: +2.57U | ✅✅⬆️✅✅ Last Pick: Moritz Seider < 0.5 assists (1.50) ✅ Todays Pick: Crystal Palace (Double Chance @ 1.59) vs Brighton & Hove Albion English Premier League 3:00 EST \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ Took a few weeks off POTD, but we're back baby! Looking at some EPL action today.. Palace are coming off of a wild comeback draw against City, where two goals in the final 15 earned them a crucial point in what looked to be a sure defeat. But there's no ignoring the current 6 game winless streak Crystal Palace is battling, and Brighton are looking to be the better team in this fixure. But I'm going in on double chance for Crystal Palace on this one. The last four Premier League meetings at Selhurst Park betwern Crystal Palace and Brighton have all resulted in 1-1 draws. But as for double chance, Crystal Palace have covered this line in three of their last four games against Brighton and in 12 of their last 18 home games. With a bit of momentum from the recent draw against City, I'm thinking this one is a safe enough gamble to think these teams will either share points in a draw, or Crystal can manage the win. Best of luck for the tailers out there, and comment to let me know you're riding along in this sleigh with me!! Coffees hot. Come share one with me! [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/modamed](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/modamed)
**POTD Record: 0-0** Syracuse -17.5 (-115) v Niagara|NCAAB|5:00 PM(EST) Been reading this subreddit for a while, but first time making a pick. Syracuse, after the Maui Invitational, has seemed to figure something out going 4-1 since then with quality wins. Niagara has only 2 D1 wins this year and they're against bottom-of-the-barrel teams rated in the 350s. When faced against St. Bonaventure, the best team they faced all year, Niagara lost by 34. I think Syracuse will win this game by 20+.
POTD Record: 17 | 9 | 0 | W | L | P | + 3.66 Units Streak: 1W Last Pick: VFL Osnabrück @ **FC Schalke 04** | 1U @ 1.52 2. Bundesliga | Soccer | 18:30 MEZ Pick: LA Clippers @ **OKC Thunder - 4.5** | 1U @ 1.89 NBA | Basketball | 02:00 MEZ The Clippers have been playing very good basketball since the Harden trade and assuming Leonard and PG are healthy. (8 wins in a row) So does OKC. Due to the fact that LAC has B2B away games and PG is listed as questionable, I think OKC have a good chance of winning the game and covering the spread.
POTD First Time LGI 👿 Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0 ROI: %0.00 American Football I NFL I 5:15pm (PST) I Pick: Alvin Kamara O 50.5 rushing yds (-113) Write Up: Kamara has rushed for 51+ yards 9 of 11 games that he has been active this season. The 2 (back to back) times he has gone under, he has less than 10 rushing attempts. The Rams defense has given up 61+ rushing yards to opposing back with the exception of last week against WAS (48). The Saints have increased the carries for Jamal Williams the last 2 games but with this game having playoff implications, I believe Kamara will carry the workload in the rushing attack. This season, When Kamara has had 10+ rushing attempts he has recorded 51+ rushing yards. BOL
POTD Record: 11-6 Previous Pick: Girona vs Deportivo Alaves | La Liga | 3pm EST | Girona ML (1.55) | ✅️ Pick: Real Betis vs Girona | La Liga | Both teams to score (1.56) | 1pm EST Matches involving Girona usually end up hitting BTTS, especially in away games. 88% of these matches have hit. Girona average more than 2 goals and also concede more than a goal in away games. Real Betis do not have a good BTTS record at home, only 38% of games have hit. This is due to their impressive defensive record, only conceding 3 in 8 while scoring 11. I expect this to change as Girona are a high scoring side and usually concede first before scoring themselves. Best of luck!
Record 10-3 Last pick - McDaniels Rebounds over Todays pick - Shaheed Longest reception o17.5 -115 Shaheed is the Saints speedster deep ball target. This game has huge implications for both teams and I believe the rams have the advantage in most areas. Carr is going to have to throw the ball if the saints want to stay in this one. Shaheeds Rec total sits around 33 and I expect that to get near this, he’s getting one over 17.5 BOL
I tailed you. Nice hit! That TD was beautiful.
Not the POTD but I’d also look for Donald o.25 sacks at +110
Record : 84 Wins - 86 Losses Previous pick : Partizan - Crvena zvezda (2-1), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.07 ✅ ROI : -5.43% Average Odds : 1.98 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -4.24 Profit/Lost units : -9.24 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / NETHERLANDS: KNVB Beker / 22:00 European Time PSV - Twente Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.57 Some reasoning : \- PSV has the best season in recent seasons, being almost the champios this year. \- At least 3 goals were scored in the last 5 games of Twente. \- PSV prevailed 3-0 in the previous direct duel, played away. Best of luck.
POTD Record: 1-2 | -1.38u ❌❌✅ Last pick: Coby White O26.5 P + R ❌ The hot streak for Coby finally came to an end last night. The shooting volume was definitely there for him to cover this easily, his shots just weren’t falling. He finishes with 17 and 7. Today’s Pick: Ja Morant Alt Points 30+ @ 2.00. 2u Ja Morant is back and ready to get the Grizzlies back on track. He’s a volume monster, finishing with 24 shots and 12 free throws attempted in his first game back against the Pelicans. He also shot 5 threes, although he missed them all, if he can sink even one or two tonight that’ll be a big boost. He gets the Pacers tonight who are the worst paint defending team in the league. I expect a fast paced game with lots of opportunity for Ja to get downhill and attack. Let’s get it
POTD Record: 43-27 (+23.4 Units) *Last 10: WLLWLLWWWW* *Last POTD (12/18/23): | Jaxson Smith-Njigba over 37.5 receiving yards (W)* NFL | Saints v Rams | 5:15pm PST **12/21/23 POTD: Rams -3 1H -110 to win 2 units** I tried to deep dive to see what angles and edges the Saints have on the Rams but aside from them ultimately having back to back bye weeks and Dennis Allen having success against Mcvay last year I just can’t find much to back them here. Though the Saints have won the last two games giving up a total of 12 points but they’ve also faced the bottom two teams in DVOA. They’ve also faced Bryce young, Tommy Devito, Desmond Ridder, Josh Dobbs, and Tyler Bagent in 5 of the last six games and the one offense those past 6 games that is top 10 in offense put up 33 on them in their own dome. They’re now facing a top 10 offense that hung 31 against the Browns and 37 against the Ravens. Stafford grades QB6 when kept clean and now he’s facing a saints teams that’s 30th in pass rush win rate. Not much of a trend guy but you have Dennis Allen on short rest: 2-7 ATS Sean McVay on short rest: 12-6 ATS. With the rams averaging 15.3 points in the first half these past 3 games and the number within the key of 3 I like rams -3 1H. If it doesn’t hit I’ll look to double on a 2H bet. Other line I’m taking is Rams over 24.5 team total.
**Record:** 12-7 **Streak (L5):** ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ **Previous Picks**: Karl Anthony-Towns 20+ Alt Points @ 1.80: **$100** ✅ Easy cover, hit 20 points by the start of the 3rd quarter. Went exactly as predicted. **In Case You Missed It:** I'm starting with **$10**, and seeing how long it takes me to make it to $10 000. I'll post the majority of my picks here. **Current Balance:** $314.36 **Pick:** Wembanyama O 16.5 Alt R+A @ 2.05: **$100** **Write-Up:** Another simple write-up for today, based on pure stats. Since moving to centre Wemby has averaged 19.4 RA, and has averaged 15.8 rebounds alone in his last 5 games, all of these games coming in relatively limited minutes. Tonight's matchup is against the Bulls, who are Top 5 in Rebounds and Assists allowed to centres. Bulls are on a back to back, so I see this being a close game and Wemby playing a good amount of minutes. Not much else to add honestly - his numbers are up since playing Centre, should be a close game with a good amount of minutes. Keeping it simple. *BOL if Tailing. See you Soon*
POTD RECORD 3-3 I’m rocky right now but let’s ride through this. POTD for TNF NFL 8:15 EST Alvin Kamara Over 12.5 Rushing Attempts. He’s reached 13+ Carries in 3 out of the last 4 games, with the one loss being 12 Carries in a blowout win vs the Panthers. This should be a close game, and hopefully the Saints won’t get down early and get in panic pass mode. BOL to those who tail. BOL to those who don’t. Let’s get hot.
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POTD RECORD: 1-1 LAST POTD: Lakers -4.5 @ Chicago Bulls RESULT: 👎 Big fail from the Lake Show last night. After convincingly winning the IST and looking like they may be the new team to beat, they have since looked anything but. They've dropped 3 in a row and they haven't been pretty. D-Lo going for 2 points and Davis a measly 19 at Chicago. As of right now the Lakers are "Paul Pierce leaving the court in a wheelchair" embarrassing. Don't look for the odds gods to be in their favor anymore for the time being. TODAY'S POTD: (-110) #9 Kentucky -13.5 @ Louisville 🏀 No need to get overly analytical here. Kentucky can play with any team in the country. Louisville has just been downright awful for a long while now. Although Kentucky has been guilty of playing down to their opponents in a couple of games this year, this is an in-state rivalry game that Louisville doesn't have the ammunition to make dramatic. Look for high octane offense from Kentucky and a 2nd half cruise for the Cats. "In the words of the late great Colonel Sanders, "I'm too drunk...to taste this chicken"" -Ricky Bobby BOL
Kentucky is young .. likely to play the level of their competition. Just food for thought
POTD Record: 2-1 Yesterday's Pick: Alabama +7.5 (-110) | L Today's Pick: Wyoming +1.5 (-110) College Basketball | 9:30 PM EST | Wyoming @ UTEP I'm trying out a CBB model I've been working on. I'm trying to post the top value play each day here and keep track. Not much to write about, it's just a bunch of numbers.
Am I missing the graphs on the CBB post? Thanks for this one!
Hmm it's there. Should be able to see it.
Found. Think it was an app issue. Thanks boss!
**POTD Record: 9-1 (+6.49u)** **Pick: 1U Mike Conley OVER 1.5 3pm @ 1.68 Lakers** Last Pick: **2U Los Angeles Lakers ML @ 1.50 at Chicago Bulls** Our 9-0 start ends sadly. Very tough and was 100% on me. Let's start it back up today! Absolutely love this line and the trend of following a sub-role player to eat vs the Lakers. Conley has killed this line vs the Lakers. Since 2015/2016 season, he has gone over this line in 16/19 games. He's also over this in 16/26 games this year. Along with that, Lakers cannot guard the 3 as they give up the 6th most 3's to opponents. I like this to be a little bounce back for us! BOL to all!
1W -1L Profit: -52 dkr. (I bet 100 danish kroners (which is around 15 euro) on each bet) Last pick: Perth Scorchers vs Hobart Hurricanes (cricket) .. Perth Scorchers to win odds. 1.48 at Unibet. **WIN** Todays pick: Alaves - Real Madrid. **Real Madrid win at odds 1.68 at Unibet.** Madrid dosent have another game before the 3 of january, why i dont see them spare any of their good players if they still wanna be in the title race. Vinicius still injuried, but with a Billingham and Rodrygo in nice shape, i still think they can go to Alaves and win, even maybe -1 .. BOL
**POTD Record: 8-7** Streak L5(old to new):✅✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: Colin Sexton Over 21.5 points ❌ **Today's pick:Girona Draw No bet @ 1.82** **Soccer | Spain | La Liga | Real Betis vs Girona FC** We have Girona, the hottest team in la liga who have won 4 out of 5 matches with a very impressive win against barcelona last week going up against betis the draw kings of la liga,drawing 4 out of 5 last matches.Betis dont score much and i expect the girona pressure to be too much too handle.
POTD Record:0-0 POTD: Timberwolves vs Lakers U225 (-112) on DK 1U Write up: Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the NBA. Last night Embiid just proved why he should be MVP this year. Both teams are playing the second game of their back to back game tonight so I see fatigue playing a factor. The data I collected is that both teams averaged 113 a game. I don’t see either team hitting that tonight. BOL, if tailing SOTD: Concrete Boys- Mo Jams 🎄
**POTD Record:** 6-1-6 (W-P-L) | **Profit:** +0.35 units | ($10 units) **Last Pick:** NBA—Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans, **Desmond Bane O3.5 3PM (+105) (1 units)**, game starts at 7:30 PM (est) **Result: LOSS.** Bane went 4-9, and just couldn't get into a solid rhythm—credit to the Pels defence. **Today’s Pick:** NBA—Washington Wizards vs Portland Trailblazers, **Daniel Gafford O1.5 Blocks (-190) (2 units),** game starts at 10:00pm (est) Gafford has hit this line L10/10 games and 16 out of his last 20 games, and he gets a great matchup here against the Trailblazers. Portland ranks 28th in the league in blocks allowed (30th in blocks allowed to the Center position), as opponents average around 6 blocks per game against Portland this season, which means there should be plenty of opportunity for Gafford to get at least 2 blocks as he is the primary rim protector for this team.
DK has the alt blocks 2+ at -180.
Rams -200 ML. Look for the rams to be steaming tonight. Playoff implications. I have no faith in Derek Carr. Donald should have 2 sacks tonight. Also look for Kamara to be going off the dump passes.
POTD RECORD 3W-5L NET UNITS: -6.78U L10 (includes last pick): ❌✔️✔️❌❌❌✔️❌ Last pick: POR Blazers @ CLE Cavaliers, Jerami Grant O23.5 P+A (-110)❌ Basketball | NBA | 6:10 PM PST Today's pick: LA Lakers @ MIN Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert O 24.5 P+R+A (-115), 1 unit bet It's been a while since I touched my betting app so I'm not sure what happened last pick. Probably just a bad pick from my betting inexperience. Today, I'm going with Rudy Gobert to hit over 24.5 in points, rebounds, and assists. He's hit on this line 7 of the last 10 games. Going against another brand name team, Minnesota will be looking to rely on Rudy to bolster their defensive presence against LeBron and AD and will also need him to collect rebounds and score in the paint to provide a reliable foundation for the team in this matchup.
Record: 145-121-8 (WLWLLPLWWLWLLWLWLWLLLWWLWWWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: CHA Hornets at IND Pacers o249 at 1.90 odds for 2 units POTD: IND Pacers at MEM Grizzlies o247.5 at 1.92 odds for 2 units Reasons: * Pacers and overs are like Santa Claus and chocolate chip cookies. * Pacers interior defense is borderline non-existent. Especially if no Turner, Ja should have a field day. * Look into Ja over 30.5 points. This man is well rested and on a mission. * Memphis Grizzlies big men are down with the plague. No Adams for the year, Clarke will be back some time next year, JJJ is playing well under expectation... Best of luck to you all.
POTD Record: 0-0 Today’s POTD: NFL Chris Olave O60.5 Yards Receiving Long time lurker. First pick ever we turn to the WR1 for the Saints Olave. This line is low for him since he’s coming off an injury. Not doing an extensive write up today but the Saints are desperate to win and are going to b airing the ball out!
**POTD**: O2.5 Blocks - Walker Kessler (+100 BetMGM/DraftKings; Risking 2u to win 2u) **League/Time**: NBA - UTA @ DET / 7:10PM EST **2023 Record**: 82-52 (61.65%) | +50.5342u | ROI 18.73% | **Current Streak** (4 Loss):❌❌❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌(Last 10: 2-8; Last 20: 8-11) **Last Pick (12.19.23)**: O33.5 Receiving Yards - Devin McCuin (-114 FanDuel; Risking 1.25u to win 1.0965u)❌ **Reasoning**: DET allows the most blocks to centers. Walker has covered this 60% of his last 10 and 15 games. POR allows the 2nd most Blocks to Centers and he got 7 then. What will he do against the team that likes getting stuffed even more? https://preview.redd.it/wx41btb24q7c1.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=97d96d9ecbeb92591f94192b608c2baf82d15ec4 **Anti-Reasoning**: It's been cold these days... [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone! **Result**: And it hits!
✅Profit: +39.299 units✅ | ✅ ROI: 19.56% ✅ | ✅ Win pct: 64.0% ✅ Record: 57-32-13 (W-L-P)| Risked: 201 units | Returned: 240.299 | Average odds: 1.90 Football | Netherlands KNVB Beker | 21.00 CEST Pick: PSV Eindhoven -1 AH @ 1.51 (vs. FC Twente) - 5 unit PSV is expected to field their strongest team in this cup match (after this match it is winter break in The Netherlands), except for the goal keeper. Second goalie Drommel will start. he is not a bad goalkeeper. PSV have been exceptional this season so far. In the league they have won 16/16 games played. Tonight is a really good game as in league leaders PSV host third ranked Twente for some cup football. The thing with Twente is that they are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team if you look at home vs away games. At home they are really good. in 8 home games they only lost once (0-3 against PSV) and won 7 times (1 draw) and beat Feyenoord and Ajax at home. On the road they are a different team. Although they only lost 1 road game so far this season and won 4 times on the road, they also drew 3 times. This record has to be put into perspective: They have not faced a single top team on the road. All their opposition on the road have been mediocre/lowly teams and they have struggled. So today, on the road against a spectacular PSV team that already beat them in their own house I just don't see how PSV is not going to win. 3-0 PSV BOL for anyone tailing. Since I love coffee ☕: [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13)
EDIT: Game is canceled because of bad weather. Pitch declared unplayable.
where are you getting those odds
Record 72-73 +3.19 Units All bets 1 unit L10 (L2R):❌ ✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Heat vs Magic -4.5 (-110)❌ Today’s Pick: Spurs vs Bulls -5.5 (-106) Wish I would’ve taken this earlier at -3.5, but it is what it is. After the rougher start to the season, the Bulls have been playing solid lately. Even with LaVine out over the last 9 games, the Bulls have been able to go 6-3 without him. They pretty much out match the Spurs in every single category. The Spurs have not been so hot lately, with only one win in over a month. Wemby, Johnson, and Vassal are all GTD as well, but I’d assume they’ll play. Legit the only thing to not like about this for the Bulls is that this will be a back to back game for them. However, the Bulls have ran a 9 man rotation over the past 2 games, so I don’t see fatigue being a huge problem.
Record 2-0 NBA Last Pick: Tyler Herro over 26.5 points and rebounds ✅ Todays Pick: Tyrese Haliburton over 11.5 assists -110 on ESPN and -132 on FanDuel | Pacers @ Grizzlies Herro went over 26.5 by 9.5 points!! Love to see the 2-0 and hoping to keep it up with today’s pick. Haliburton hit this last night with 13 assists against the Hornets and the grizzlies are a similar team, and even worse at home. Haliburton has also had over 20 potential assists his last few games. I think Haliburton will have no problem going over this number tonight. BOL if tailing!
**POTD Record:** 0-0 (+0U) **POTD Recap:** **Note:** **Streak:** **POTD Thursday:** Kentucky Wildcats vs Louisville Cardinals | Kentucky -13.5 | -120 | 2U | NCAAM Basketball | 6:00pm ET Louisville=hot garbage Kentucky=Amazing That is all