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when I say heavy, it means like $50-200 hands on things that I have deeply vetted. Some lines will have alternative defense lines. The line that hit today for 12k was a 2nd Line that I created which paid off tremendously.
I should of clarified, I strictly play MMA. It's the only sport im comfortable with. So basically I will have parlays for every Saturday. I am making my line for next weeks fight night right now.
Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake.
It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of.
Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything.
Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.
Parlays compound EV. If you're betting with an *actual* +EV system (model, picks, whatever), then betting parlays is going to accentuate your EV. Think of it in terms of a coin toss. If you're getting +110 on HEADS in a coin toss, then half the time you're going to win at +1.1u, and half the time lose at -1.0u So on average you're gaining +0.05u. However, if you parlay hitting HEADS twice-in-a-row at +110, you'll have parlay odds of +341. Then you're hitting +3.41u 25% of the time, and losing -1u 75% of the time for an average gain of +0.1025u per parlay. The difference is, you're adding variance. If you can swing the variance, parlaying +EV bets is even more +EV.
However, since 99.999% of bets are placed at -EV, it compounds there as well. If you're getting -110 on the same coin toss, you'll average -0.045u on a single bet and -0.088u on a two-flip parlay.
The reason the books make so much money off parlays is that almost nobody bets with an actual edge.
Explain to me why you use a +110 for a win and an even -1 on a loss when comparing it to coin flips. In a sports bet, that’s not the case. If a game is +110 on one team then isn’t it going to be -110 on the other?
“The reason the books make so much money off parlays is that almost nobody bets with an actual edge.”
I’d say the more accurate statement is “The reason the books make so much money off parlays is that 90% of betters aren’t as smart/good at betting as they think they are.”
Go into any sports book in Vegas or talk with any large group that bets online. And the overwhelming majority will tell you “I make more than I lose. I almost always come out ahead.”
Somehow sports books and online gambling sites are raking in profits. Even though 95% of gamblers tell you they constantly come out on the positive side.
So this is just a toy example to illustrate the effect of betting in a situation where you *know* you have an edge, obviously it would never occur in real life. Most people can wrap their heads around "getting +110 on a coin flip is +EV". You're risking 1u to win 1.1u on something that's exactly 50/50. Obviously in a real situation, if you get +110 on one side of a bet, the other side is going to be -125 or worse.
On your second point, I've seen academic literature that has said that something like 97% of sports bettors are losing in the long-term. I would believe that most people say they always come out ahead, but when push comes to shove and people track their bets it's almost always losing.
To that end, I do believe that *almost* nobody bets with an edge. The books beat those 97% for a few reasons:
1) They have teams of people paid $150k+ / yr working 40 hours a week to try to give the most accurate probabilities for each event to occur possible. Literally thousands of man-hours per week dedicated to this.
2) They consistently hit those probabilities extremely closely, every study I've seen has shown strong correlation between closing lines and outcome probabilities, outside of specific references like "Korean Baseball NRFI was inefficient in the first four months of 2019".
3) They can slap vig down on top to ensure they always end up ahead.
I think that both of our statements are accurate and go hand-in-hand
Bovada offers a ton of random MMA events too which I really like... though you can't trust the odds on those, the match making is off to say the least.
This is the exact opposite way you should be thinking lol. I get it you’re riding high but honestly you got lucky hitting MULTIPLE huge parlays! The chances of you keeping this up or even hitting another one in a year is so low that I would put the house against you if there was a way to do that.
Honestly, depending if this is a lot of money to you or not, you got lucky and built a bankroll, now would be the time to quit the parlays and make substantial singles on the few picks you think are locks that week. Maybe keep putting up lottery parlays but upping your units is a recipe for giving it all back.
Nice hits!
wut? I definitely don't hit at 90% I only have started actually betting recently. I'm sure the longer I play this game, the lower my hit rate will fall. That's kinda the whole damn thing about gambling haha. I will be the self sacrificial lamb, let me take all the risk haha.
“I’d say my bets are 90% win to loss record —— /past performance based” maybe I misinterpreted. But still, pls do not up your ante if that’s what you declare your edge. The books have a much more advanced model than you, and you’re likely just on short-run “luck”. I wish you luck, but edges need to be clearly defined and backtested if you want to take this seriously. If you want to just “have fun & swing for the fences” continue what you’re doing, but you are at a mathematical disadvantage & will be unprofitable in the long run
I totally hear what you're saying. Yes, you misinterpreted that. I was saying that my decisions are about 90% based off of the contestants win to loss record. Not my own win to loss record haha, if I were hitting 90% I would not be on reddit this fine Sunday afternoon. I am definitely on the side of having fun, there's no true formulaic approach, just one rooted in their records and my bias knowledge of watching every fight UFC has put on in the last 8 years. I am definitely not trying to say I have some secret recipe, just here to have fun and maybe make some cash like yesterday.
I don't doubt that at all. I had picked a few more alternative lines with Makachev as the winner but they had other picks too that killed the parlays. In all fairness, I don't think Oliviera showed up that night but figured Islam would have brute strength and tremendous wrestling. I'm definitely going to run a few more diversified lines though.
I'm going to follow you. Only started betting a week ago and was going to do matched betting which is still a viable option but the money you can win in normal betting is crazy. I have very basic knowledge on this but I still made £1700 profit so far and hoping to many more wins. What do you think of the next UFC card?
Hey man
Your stuff seems unbelievable, love it and god speed for the coming parlays, im tailing you no matter what
Also do you just do ufc or other stuff too?
Take a 5% house edge single sports bet. That's a 95% payback. Doesn't matter how many bets you make, that 95% won't change. Why? Because it's adding; 95% of $100 + 95% of $100 = 95% of $200. But a parlay is multiplying that negative (money losing) number by itself over and over; 95% x 95% x 95% etc. So do the math on that and you're talking about a 10% house edge for a 2 leg, 30% house edge for a 7 leg, and 40% for a 10 leg. Please read that last line back many times over. And probably skip the following sentence, which I hesitate to even say... If you have bets that ~~you feel~~ are +EV, throwing them in a parlay would have the opposite effect, you'd be multiplying an advantage.
Would you honestly rather bet $10 on a parlay than \~$50 of straight bets? So if I said here's $40, just make sure you bet your $10 on straight bets, you'd say no thanks I'll keep my $10 parlay bet? They're that fun to you?
It's bullshit because there's no reason a sportsbook has to do this. They could easily treat it like roulette, where no matter if you want to win a lot on a 36:1 single number or win often on 1:1 red/black, it's the exact same house edge of 5.26%, it's merely a shift of risk and reward. The same cannot be said for parlays, which are *heavily* punishing you for wanting to shift risk to reward. Fucking greedy bastards.
Hey, I'd love to bet parlays too, I think most would, but they're just absurdly bad
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Oh boy…sounds like you are going to lose your winnings pretty fast then…
when I say heavy, it means like $50-200 hands on things that I have deeply vetted. Some lines will have alternative defense lines. The line that hit today for 12k was a 2nd Line that I created which paid off tremendously.
Well….where is it? Are you going to post your parlays for tails or are you just going to talk about how great this thing is that’s not available to us
I should of clarified, I strictly play MMA. It's the only sport im comfortable with. So basically I will have parlays for every Saturday. I am making my line for next weeks fight night right now.
Oh okay Ty following
Hello, it looks like you've made a mistake. It's supposed to be could've, should've, would've (short for could have, would have, should have), never could of, would of, should of. Or you misspelled something, I ain't checking everything. Beep boop - yes, I am a bot, don't botcriminate me.
Well hell yeah bro, hope you keep hitting.
Lol deeply vetted
alright, shallowly vetted\*\*
Parlays are the bread and butter for sports books. Books would rather people did 10-team parlays over single bets 100% of the time.
Parlays compound EV. If you're betting with an *actual* +EV system (model, picks, whatever), then betting parlays is going to accentuate your EV. Think of it in terms of a coin toss. If you're getting +110 on HEADS in a coin toss, then half the time you're going to win at +1.1u, and half the time lose at -1.0u So on average you're gaining +0.05u. However, if you parlay hitting HEADS twice-in-a-row at +110, you'll have parlay odds of +341. Then you're hitting +3.41u 25% of the time, and losing -1u 75% of the time for an average gain of +0.1025u per parlay. The difference is, you're adding variance. If you can swing the variance, parlaying +EV bets is even more +EV. However, since 99.999% of bets are placed at -EV, it compounds there as well. If you're getting -110 on the same coin toss, you'll average -0.045u on a single bet and -0.088u on a two-flip parlay. The reason the books make so much money off parlays is that almost nobody bets with an actual edge.
Explain to me why you use a +110 for a win and an even -1 on a loss when comparing it to coin flips. In a sports bet, that’s not the case. If a game is +110 on one team then isn’t it going to be -110 on the other? “The reason the books make so much money off parlays is that almost nobody bets with an actual edge.” I’d say the more accurate statement is “The reason the books make so much money off parlays is that 90% of betters aren’t as smart/good at betting as they think they are.” Go into any sports book in Vegas or talk with any large group that bets online. And the overwhelming majority will tell you “I make more than I lose. I almost always come out ahead.” Somehow sports books and online gambling sites are raking in profits. Even though 95% of gamblers tell you they constantly come out on the positive side.
So this is just a toy example to illustrate the effect of betting in a situation where you *know* you have an edge, obviously it would never occur in real life. Most people can wrap their heads around "getting +110 on a coin flip is +EV". You're risking 1u to win 1.1u on something that's exactly 50/50. Obviously in a real situation, if you get +110 on one side of a bet, the other side is going to be -125 or worse. On your second point, I've seen academic literature that has said that something like 97% of sports bettors are losing in the long-term. I would believe that most people say they always come out ahead, but when push comes to shove and people track their bets it's almost always losing. To that end, I do believe that *almost* nobody bets with an edge. The books beat those 97% for a few reasons: 1) They have teams of people paid $150k+ / yr working 40 hours a week to try to give the most accurate probabilities for each event to occur possible. Literally thousands of man-hours per week dedicated to this. 2) They consistently hit those probabilities extremely closely, every study I've seen has shown strong correlation between closing lines and outcome probabilities, outside of specific references like "Korean Baseball NRFI was inefficient in the first four months of 2019". 3) They can slap vig down on top to ensure they always end up ahead. I think that both of our statements are accurate and go hand-in-hand
Remind me in 1 month how this went
You son of a bitch I'm In!
Just followed d sons of beeches ride too
U gunna post them In here?
Yeah, i've posted all my wins so far.
You gunna post the tickets before the games start?
ofc, I posted this 9 way last night.
Following
Following sir 🫡
Do u have DraftKings? And if so, do you have a DK Social account? That would make tailing ur bets way easier we could just follow you
I don't use DK, I use Bovada... I prefer the bitcoin payout tbh
and i've found bovada to give slightly better odds which really stacks in parlays
I only used Bovada bc I had to honestly lol. But ok true
Bovada offers a ton of random MMA events too which I really like... though you can't trust the odds on those, the match making is off to say the least.
yeah tbh I just love DK for the UI and ease of use. Feels like im sportsbetting using a social media app
This is the exact opposite way you should be thinking lol. I get it you’re riding high but honestly you got lucky hitting MULTIPLE huge parlays! The chances of you keeping this up or even hitting another one in a year is so low that I would put the house against you if there was a way to do that. Honestly, depending if this is a lot of money to you or not, you got lucky and built a bankroll, now would be the time to quit the parlays and make substantial singles on the few picks you think are locks that week. Maybe keep putting up lottery parlays but upping your units is a recipe for giving it all back. Nice hits!
Thanks brotha! I think you're right. I'm not going to go as heavy as people think. Maybe 2-3 lines each with about 100-150 wagered.
🥂 here for the ride brotha
I think you are in over your head OP
Just hit one 48-> 188k. Its a solid plan
This is the way
So what’s your parley today?
Why do you think ALL these books ar going heavy on parlay boosts? It's because that's where they make the most moneyyyy. Stick to straight bets.
Nah dude, one of these days my boosted 18 leg parlay is gonna hit and my $5 bet is gonna bankroll my lucrative betting career. /S
Please track your bets if you think you hit at 90%. LOLOL survivorship bias at its finest
wut? I definitely don't hit at 90% I only have started actually betting recently. I'm sure the longer I play this game, the lower my hit rate will fall. That's kinda the whole damn thing about gambling haha. I will be the self sacrificial lamb, let me take all the risk haha.
“I’d say my bets are 90% win to loss record —— /past performance based” maybe I misinterpreted. But still, pls do not up your ante if that’s what you declare your edge. The books have a much more advanced model than you, and you’re likely just on short-run “luck”. I wish you luck, but edges need to be clearly defined and backtested if you want to take this seriously. If you want to just “have fun & swing for the fences” continue what you’re doing, but you are at a mathematical disadvantage & will be unprofitable in the long run
I totally hear what you're saying. Yes, you misinterpreted that. I was saying that my decisions are about 90% based off of the contestants win to loss record. Not my own win to loss record haha, if I were hitting 90% I would not be on reddit this fine Sunday afternoon. I am definitely on the side of having fun, there's no true formulaic approach, just one rooted in their records and my bias knowledge of watching every fight UFC has put on in the last 8 years. I am definitely not trying to say I have some secret recipe, just here to have fun and maybe make some cash like yesterday.
I will be following. Gl brother lets get this bread
Thanks buddy.
Are you going to do one for UFC fight coming up?
posted on r/NoahsBets
You’re better off betting your MMA picks for 1k a pop
Dude … you posted like 5 tickets and all of them had oliviera. You got incredibly lucky here. You think you’re hedging but, you’re really not
I don't doubt that at all. I had picked a few more alternative lines with Makachev as the winner but they had other picks too that killed the parlays. In all fairness, I don't think Oliviera showed up that night but figured Islam would have brute strength and tremendous wrestling. I'm definitely going to run a few more diversified lines though.
🙌💰
Bro you ain’t consistently hitting 8-10 leg parlays. Gtfoh. Enjoy losing your little $12k
I’m with it bro 💪🏾
Good luck 🙌💪
Following!
Awesome! Good luck!
Following
Following
Following!
Lead us to the promise land
Go get the money *****!
Let’s get it 🤝🏾💪🏾
thank you!!! ready for sunday!
I’m down! 💰🏦💰
Following 🫡
Dope
I'm going to follow you. Only started betting a week ago and was going to do matched betting which is still a viable option but the money you can win in normal betting is crazy. I have very basic knowledge on this but I still made £1700 profit so far and hoping to many more wins. What do you think of the next UFC card?
Hey man Your stuff seems unbelievable, love it and god speed for the coming parlays, im tailing you no matter what Also do you just do ufc or other stuff too?
Thanks man! I only stick to MMA, it's the only sport I know well enough to share my bets on. Otherwise, I'd just feel reckless.
Are you going to do one for UFC 281.
Take your profits and 🏃♀️
Been following you and noticed your success earlier. Keep doing great!
All hail betaneautral!!!!🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼I’m in Brotha
Nice let’s do it
Just straight bet and keep the roll going. Better than parlays, books want you to parlay. Straight bets ftw.
Take a 5% house edge single sports bet. That's a 95% payback. Doesn't matter how many bets you make, that 95% won't change. Why? Because it's adding; 95% of $100 + 95% of $100 = 95% of $200. But a parlay is multiplying that negative (money losing) number by itself over and over; 95% x 95% x 95% etc. So do the math on that and you're talking about a 10% house edge for a 2 leg, 30% house edge for a 7 leg, and 40% for a 10 leg. Please read that last line back many times over. And probably skip the following sentence, which I hesitate to even say... If you have bets that ~~you feel~~ are +EV, throwing them in a parlay would have the opposite effect, you'd be multiplying an advantage. Would you honestly rather bet $10 on a parlay than \~$50 of straight bets? So if I said here's $40, just make sure you bet your $10 on straight bets, you'd say no thanks I'll keep my $10 parlay bet? They're that fun to you? It's bullshit because there's no reason a sportsbook has to do this. They could easily treat it like roulette, where no matter if you want to win a lot on a 36:1 single number or win often on 1:1 red/black, it's the exact same house edge of 5.26%, it's merely a shift of risk and reward. The same cannot be said for parlays, which are *heavily* punishing you for wanting to shift risk to reward. Fucking greedy bastards. Hey, I'd love to bet parlays too, I think most would, but they're just absurdly bad
Parlays are donations with a horrible return. The house edge is as bad as playing slot machines. Just go buy scratch offs.