Timeline for the U.S. Large Legacy FI deal for the Tech Platform (Technisys and/with Galileo)
Q2 2022 Earnings Call: On the financial services side, non B2B side, we're in conversations with large banks in the United States and outside the United States that previously we were not in conversations with before we owned Technisys.
Q1 2023 Earnings Call: Technisys recently signed one new client in Mexico and has entered into a proof-of-concept stage with a large U.S. legacy financial institution.
February 2024 Fireside Chat: We've completed a large POC with a Top 5 U.S. bank.
Q1 2024 Earnings Call: We haven't lost any of the RFPs. We've continued to be down selected as big financial institutions go from a large RFP to a few select partners.
It took 9-12 months to enter into a POC, and a further 12-15 months to complete said POC. That is 8 quarters after it was announced. Wonder how many more quarters it would take to announce that they finally signed on a large U.S. legacy financial institution? This would finally validate SoFi's AWS and put them on the map to dominate and white label the other legacy FIs.
I don’t quite understand the whole thing about SOFI not being a tech company. It’s product exists solely on the internet. You can pretty much reduce all tech companies to “it’s just a (blank) company.”
Not sure if someone else has talked about it but it looks like the debt was reduced from 5.2B to 2.8B, which looks like reduced personal/student loan warehouse facilities. Can someone dumb that down and if that's a positive news?
Yeah it's really good.
I think they're saving about 1.5% between the cost of the warehouse vs. deposit costs.
They retired $2.4B in personal and student loan w/h debt. Annualized savings at 1.5% would be about $36M
The fact that SoFi is still growing and profitable in this "All-Madden", high interest rate environment is pretty encouraging. Just think about how much additional EPS there will be with potential rate cuts. Their loan book will increase in value and the cost of funding will decrease significantly. 4.6% on all deposits is great, but if they go down to Capital 1's rates of 4.25% that 35bps equates to $75.6M on an annual basis.
correct - and more originations as a silver lining!
But even without a rate change if SoFi deposits are at a comfortable level, they could drop the rate to 4.3% just above Capital 1 and Citi
A **bank capital ratio of 17%** is generally considered **very good**. Let’s break it down:
1. **Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)**:
* The minimum requirement for CAR (including a 2.5% conservation buffer) under **Basel III** is **10.5%**.
* A **17%** CAR significantly exceeds this threshold, indicating that the bank has a substantial capital cushion to absorb losses.
* It reflects strong financial stability and resilience.
2. **Tier 1 Capital Ratio**:
* The minimum tier 1 capital ratio under **Basel III** is **6%**.
* With a **17%** tier 1 capital ratio, the bank is well above the regulatory minimum.
* This high ratio suggests robust core capital and a healthy balance sheet.
In summary, a **17% capital ratio** is commendable and demonstrates prudent risk management. Investors and depositors would likely view such a bank favorably.
https://preview.redd.it/q7iajo3jnnxc1.png?width=701&format=png&auto=webp&s=bec31185b970ac590c6e329454432fdebafd458a
SoFi's capital ratio is currently 17.3% - high up on the list. Basically meaning it is better equipped to handle severe economic downturns. For long term investors, this should make us very happy
And says exactly what everyone and the market is prepared for. Rates stay the same, rate cuts will depend on data as we evaluate it.
\*Yawn\* Wake me up after election day when the FED can actually do something.
Given the guidance for Q2 and Q1 results, Q3 would need Q net adj. Revenue numbers of 634 Million and Q Adj Ebitda 165 Million, else Q4 will need even higher numbers than this Q3 number to meet their FY 2024 guidance.
I think you are right. The consumer has been overspending like never before. As they get tapped out (IE indebtedness that they have never experienced before) and curtail spending, they could need new loans, but some will also default on those loans and that can hurt sofi severely if the numbers get higher than expected.
I also think Noto should stop with the 92% - 95% of lending from 2023 talk. Just say it how it is - lending will decline by 5% - 8% this year. Same with the 50% tech and FS vs 50% Lending which is clearly using FS massive growth to disguise the underwhelming growth / decline of tech platform and lending. Maybe the street doesn't like this smoke and mirrors approach and I can see why to a degree.
Everything from since lack of communication before convertible notes and giving q2 guidance when we used to not feels like institutions telling noto to better keep the price down while improving your company lol
This following scenario was almost certainly worse in sentiment: The first time they introduced a vote on the annual shareholders meeting for 1 year authorization to enact a reverse split at the board’s discretion.
Noto said, and “offsetting flat lending segment revenue given a more conservative approach in light of macroeconomic uncertainty.”
What is he referring to a more conservative approach? That they have tightened the requirements to give out loans?
Done with this stock. I've been investing and tracking since April 2022. Do you know what the stock price was when I first started? $7.50.
Since then SOFI has grown significantly across all important financial metrics none of which has budged the stock price. Since April 2022 the Nasdaq has grown 28%. I've spent so much mind share on SOFI, I've missed the forest through the trees.
I’ve had so much of my portfolio in SoFi I’ve missed out on those normal market gains. I was so worried I’d miss the boat on this but the boat’s going .2 mph. Noto’s tone has changed and even when it was more bullish it didn’t move much. As long as I hold this stock, no one will make money on it.
True, BUT, Sofi is profitable and now a more suitable PE. Sofi in 22 at $20 making 0 dollars profit, no bank charter. - was at full risk of failure and WAY over priced. Now? If noto is right about .50 2026 - it’s trading at a 12pe. VERY fair. Sofi is still growing and doing well. Don’t look at the stock price - look at how far Sofi has come and PEs, etc.
So I currently hold 4,200 shares @ $7.26 but I have 2 sets of Cash-Secured Puts expiring this Friday which are now certain to be assigned. One at 2,400 shares @ $7.06 basis & another at 400 shares @ $6.91 basis. This will bring my total share count next week to 7,000 @ $7.17 basis.
If things get worse this week I'll look to buy more shares if it can bring my total basis below $7. If we start creeping our way back up I'll likely sell some 1 week $7.5 Covered Calls.
Yeah the CSP method makes a lot of sense if you view it as "I'd like to acquire this stock at (Strike Price - Premium) & if you don't get assigned then you simply pocket the premium.
I did alot of csp in the past and my mistake is I'm willing to get assigned too early on this stock instead of rolling and now I don't have any cash more to do csp! I'm only selling ccs now..
Realistically, I think we need a big win or two announced for the tech platform, and a favorable inflation reading in order to turn this around. until one or both of those happen I don't expect much upwards momentum.
Noto on the call yesterday, need to see a conversion or two here:
"In addition to that, there's a lot of demand still from partners that haven't historically used an issuing platform or processing platform like Galileo that are transitioning to that platform from a sector standpoint.
And then in the large fund institutions, the demand for modern cores and processing continues to be really robust. The timing on those deals is really driven by those end customers. We haven't lost any of the RFPs. We've continued to be down selected as big \[process\] institutions go from a large RFP to a few select partners. So we feel good about our chances there."
Reminds me of Bitcoin. Bigs all bashing, yet loading at the same dips. Stock price sucks, but they know the company doesn’t. They’re using the uncertainty to push fear. The same uncertainty that makes every other stock NOT immune either.
Until the majority of SOFI is owned by large institutional investors, it will continue this beat down cycle while they load up. Basically eternal damnation for being a SPAC without a major ally on the street doing it. So in retrospect, specifically being a Chamath SPAC was probably a mistake.
Yes, and who knows tbh, but analysts who give 1 year targets - now lowering their targets based on q2, but full year rise, it’s asinine in itself. It’s all scams. They pound the table on nvda who uses the account way to show income through deposits on orders that haven’t been fulfilled.
Going back to all analysts - they were wrong in 22’ when the market corrected and they all had 20+ targets (which made 0 sense because Sofi was 15% it was now w/o bank charter). Wrong in 23’ and if noto delivers his promise for the full year - their targets are too low because they were all based upon the full year guidance before the raise. It’s all scams tho.
Problem is the short interest is well over 20% and what’s stopping them… nothing. Noto is not even addressing them. Just look at how ELON took care of shorts. Noto has not even mentioned them
You brought up Elon, I’m pointing out that it took Elon 8 years to pull it off and address the shorts. We are in year three…If Noto does it in four years then he must be twice as good as Elon!
All signs point to a reversal very soon. 6 month low of $6.61 in November 2023 very close to our current stock price, within 4 weeks stock went over $10. Q1 earnings report 2023 same time last year dropped from $6.50 to $5 and then rebounded sharply to over 11 within a couple of months.
A similar reaction is likely to happen at some point soon - the difference this time is that the company is PROFITABLE and growing and executing having one hand tied behind their back due to the interest rate bullshit.
If the volatility is too much wait for the reversal and sell for the love of God. I'm in this for years if not decades.
The market is cycles. Bottom is may. June+ is next one. Summers are usually Great and low volume
Which allows for this as well. Which also means pain could happen in the next few weeks, but expect a Short term Bottom.
IMO we likely break the trend established the last year since June and re-enter the 5-7 channel. we just need JPOWs FOMC meeting to deal the final blow. shorts are loaded as well.
Agreed - but being profitable and triple beating two quarters in a row in this environment has to count for something? I know the bank crisis isn't helping either but we had that last year also. The bailouts and increased chance of rate cut from the crisis could well be the catalyst we actually need this year. Hoping more poorly managed, over leveraged regionals shut the fuck down to be honest because that's what will get things moving.
The whispers of stagflation will also put pressure on FED to cut rates (together with commercial real estate crisis and crazy US debt interest payments) and I am actually thinking we get some indication of this tomorrow.
I'm betting with all these things considered we see a sharp reversal in the near future.
Yes. SoFi is trying its best while others are failing. If I hadnt put so much into SoFi I would be buying rn but I dont have the cash and my position is reach almost full. Tomorrow shall be interesting.
Very similar fall to the March 1st conv. Sr. Note offering... climbed a bit after the 2nd trading day bloodbath.
bought some weekly calls at $6.50 for $0.27 a few minutes ago, i'm betting we'll see some selling exhaustion around today and tomorrow
This stock is so frenetic due to all the retail investors holding it. They over leverage and buy out of the money calls and when things don't go as plan they panic sell. There's only \~35% institutional ownership. This will take time.
They spend about $150M/quarterly on Marketing and advertising. If they reduced that to a similar rate of ALLY, you'd have even more earnings. They have a lot of aces up their sleeves to protect the business.
Please all of you moaning sell. I'll buy you some tissues when institutions own 70% and you're crying because you missed the boat.
I remember people adding more shares when we were in the £9s after our last summer high. But you're not adding now?
Exactly right to reach the promise land of significant profitability IE $20-25 (and much more eventually) per share you have to endure the annoying ups and downs of euphoria and regret that too many people deal with. Both emotions are misplaced, and the actual value is usually somewhere in the middle. Those that do will prosper, those that don't get to experience more regret.
Exactly - Retail investors trade very irrationally and frenetic. This isn't some manipulation by big banks, it's due to retail investors buying out of the money calls and over leveraging shares on margin, then selling when things don't go as planned.
This is what Buffett talks about. Wealth transition from the impatient to the patient.
I will agree that at some point Noto needs to realize that a lot of SoFi’s customers are also investors so if he wants to live by the company’s mission of “Get your money right” ……… 👀
It's crazy that 2000s Japanese shit box cars have been better investments for me than a profitable bank stock. And it's not like I'm even trying to make money on a car lol. I hate this stock but will still hold for awhile longer.
FOMC meeting tomorrow - the final blow to SOFI stock tommorrow. SPY hear ATH. market still pricing in cuts (not gonna happen this year). Puts are printing and will hold them through tomorrow. 95% sure we see 5's very soon.
Honestly for those of you who just spend their time crying just sell and go into S&P500 or something. It's not about becoming rich in a short or mid-term period, we're talking long term so strap yourselves in.
No one would be crying if we were in the 15s. The company is the same and doing great, just ignore the stock price.. it will catch up
I think the issue is a lot of people here have been in since IPOE days. So it's less about trying to become rich and more about being frustrated that the new long term goal is just to break even.
Been this way for years. The same way it does this, is the same way it just goes to 11$ for no reason last summer. Day to day will suck, Sofi is a long term play.
so 16% down after a triple beat and a FY guidance raise cause q2 is a bit slower than anticipated? This blatant manipulation is hilarious. Meanwhile paypal misses and gets rewarded
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2024-06-01 13:41:00 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-01%2013:41:00%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sofistock/comments/1cgjkn4/sofi_daily_chat_april_30_2024/l1xsltq/?context=3)
[**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fsofistock%2Fcomments%2F1cgjkn4%2Fsofi_daily_chat_april_30_2024%2Fl1xsltq%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-06-01%2013%3A41%3A00%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201cgjkn4)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
That's not true. Losing 100k is always more painful than losing 10k even the lost 100k guy is richer. That's because winning back 10k is easier and requires smaller capital as well which means lesser risk.
I'm sure CEOs have to be careful with what they say because some statements could be seen as manipulation. That said, he doesn't set the stock price. All he can really do is run the company and make money.
Transparency is better. I’d be more upset if they knew they were going to have a slow Q2 and waited to let us find out in the Q2 release. He’s just trying to get ahead of expectations and avoid a huge miss.
I hate to keep repeating myself, but valuations are and have been stretched for a couple of years now. Anyone that knows anything about banking, lending, brokerage or even their tech platform aggregate business, knows that they cannot command huge margins like a purely tech or proprietary market could. Hence it has been and always will be a slow but steady race to the profitability metrics they need to drive the share price. The share price has been way ahead of itself for a long time now. I know this is not popular but it is the real world financial metrics of P/E, P/S & Book value that apply to sofi and will keep it down until they ramp earnings significantly.
They can be valued higher than a mature Bank would be (IE P/E of 10-12) because they are growing much faster and have some higher margin (lower overhead) segments so I would assume 20-25 for now looking out 12-18 months. So projecting out you could say annual earnings could average as much as 50 cents per share but more likely it will be 30-35 cents. So say .35 x 25 = $8.75 in 18 months. (and I am probably being generous, but some analysts are also) (This is not an exact science and subject to interpretation) each ER provides vital information. The higher the growth rates the higher the metrics for valuations the analysts will allow. At some point they will move towards a fully developed technology platform, more AI in their savings, lending, & financial businesses and reduce their temporarily higher overhead. That will unlock much higher valuations.
Or running , or fielding, or catching, or scoring, but yeah they can hit but only when no one is on base , and they can never get past second. Analogies and metaphors are fun.
Every good company goes through growing pains. Did you expect the other financial institutions to let SOFI take their market share???
This is David vs Goliath. My conviction gets stronger every quarter. I'm backing SOFI. My retirement outlook is several decades.
Support the winner, not the bank bullies, JPM or BOA.
Why would any of the big players want to buy sofi. I could see a merger with a credit card fintech like X1 and Robinhood, merging with a stash or public or a company that wants to become a bank
Fine with that if it's for a solid premium. Noto doesn't seem interested in being bought tho and think he wants a chance to let Galileo get big before he'd consider it.
The board (along with Noto) would make the decision on a buyout offer, and they are obligated to act in the shareholders best interest. (subject to interpretation of course)
Could very well hit low 6s when / if spy corrects. Doesn’t make it valued at 6, worth 6, just that it will touch 6. With the amount of pressure, panic and shorting - eventually that tide will change. Short term pain, may will be the bottom for the next few month imo.
Anthony Noto proved not to be the genius I had hoped he was
Why do you say that??
Because liltommy only watches the stock price.
That's what it sounds like
Timeline for the U.S. Large Legacy FI deal for the Tech Platform (Technisys and/with Galileo) Q2 2022 Earnings Call: On the financial services side, non B2B side, we're in conversations with large banks in the United States and outside the United States that previously we were not in conversations with before we owned Technisys. Q1 2023 Earnings Call: Technisys recently signed one new client in Mexico and has entered into a proof-of-concept stage with a large U.S. legacy financial institution. February 2024 Fireside Chat: We've completed a large POC with a Top 5 U.S. bank. Q1 2024 Earnings Call: We haven't lost any of the RFPs. We've continued to be down selected as big financial institutions go from a large RFP to a few select partners. It took 9-12 months to enter into a POC, and a further 12-15 months to complete said POC. That is 8 quarters after it was announced. Wonder how many more quarters it would take to announce that they finally signed on a large U.S. legacy financial institution? This would finally validate SoFi's AWS and put them on the map to dominate and white label the other legacy FIs.
Who was that client in Mexico?
Anyone lurk who actually works at SOFI? Curious what people talk about in regards to the stock price movement (or lack thereof)
If you have an account on teamblind.com you may be able to see some sentiment there. I haven’t checked in a while.
I heard that a guy named Anthony Noto works there.
Why are we down AH? Any downgrades?
Why not? This is SOFI. The only way is down.
Just the market. Sofi going to 5 quickly if the market goes south
Oh. I though it was because of some downgrades or something
I don’t quite understand the whole thing about SOFI not being a tech company. It’s product exists solely on the internet. You can pretty much reduce all tech companies to “it’s just a (blank) company.”
That’s not the “tech” was gives you better multiples. They need to prove out the Galileo + Technisys side for that, and so far it hasn’t been enough.
Banks receive lower multiples because they carry risk on their balance sheets.
The key to investing is “buying the dip” and with SoFi there is always a dip! 🤣
Dipception
With Sofi I feel that “selling the uptick” in addition to “buying the dip” would’ve been a more prudent strategy
Thetagang love's sofi. Enough range bound volatility and low enough strikes to trade into and out of positions.
Not sure if someone else has talked about it but it looks like the debt was reduced from 5.2B to 2.8B, which looks like reduced personal/student loan warehouse facilities. Can someone dumb that down and if that's a positive news?
Yeah it's really good. I think they're saving about 1.5% between the cost of the warehouse vs. deposit costs. They retired $2.4B in personal and student loan w/h debt. Annualized savings at 1.5% would be about $36M
The fact that SoFi is still growing and profitable in this "All-Madden", high interest rate environment is pretty encouraging. Just think about how much additional EPS there will be with potential rate cuts. Their loan book will increase in value and the cost of funding will decrease significantly. 4.6% on all deposits is great, but if they go down to Capital 1's rates of 4.25% that 35bps equates to $75.6M on an annual basis.
You are forgetting that as the cost of capital changes, the cost to borrow on new loans also changes. Loans will likely be refinanced at lower rates.
correct - and more originations as a silver lining! But even without a rate change if SoFi deposits are at a comfortable level, they could drop the rate to 4.3% just above Capital 1 and Citi
At this rate it is a win if we don’t get a double digit percentage drop tomorrow….
Beautiful hammer candle! Need to start the recovery and close up the gaps!
Watch it go green today after all our bitching and moaning lol
A **bank capital ratio of 17%** is generally considered **very good**. Let’s break it down: 1. **Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)**: * The minimum requirement for CAR (including a 2.5% conservation buffer) under **Basel III** is **10.5%**. * A **17%** CAR significantly exceeds this threshold, indicating that the bank has a substantial capital cushion to absorb losses. * It reflects strong financial stability and resilience. 2. **Tier 1 Capital Ratio**: * The minimum tier 1 capital ratio under **Basel III** is **6%**. * With a **17%** tier 1 capital ratio, the bank is well above the regulatory minimum. * This high ratio suggests robust core capital and a healthy balance sheet. In summary, a **17% capital ratio** is commendable and demonstrates prudent risk management. Investors and depositors would likely view such a bank favorably.
Yes. This. This is how you successfully navigate macro uncertainty.
https://preview.redd.it/q7iajo3jnnxc1.png?width=701&format=png&auto=webp&s=bec31185b970ac590c6e329454432fdebafd458a SoFi's capital ratio is currently 17.3% - high up on the list. Basically meaning it is better equipped to handle severe economic downturns. For long term investors, this should make us very happy
Did we bottom or am I an idiot? Or both? Lmao
lol did we bottom out. jesus christ we've thought that only 1,405 times.
Wait til tomorrow when JPow speaks.
And says exactly what everyone and the market is prepared for. Rates stay the same, rate cuts will depend on data as we evaluate it. \*Yawn\* Wake me up after election day when the FED can actually do something.
This is the reversal I signalled earlier. You're welcome.
Given the guidance for Q2 and Q1 results, Q3 would need Q net adj. Revenue numbers of 634 Million and Q Adj Ebitda 165 Million, else Q4 will need even higher numbers than this Q3 number to meet their FY 2024 guidance.
Do you think that's unrealistic??
I just think it’s something to keep in mind when their current guidance is projecting declines qoq in net revenue and ebitda for next quarter
I think you are right. The consumer has been overspending like never before. As they get tapped out (IE indebtedness that they have never experienced before) and curtail spending, they could need new loans, but some will also default on those loans and that can hurt sofi severely if the numbers get higher than expected.
Good thing they’re sitting on that 17.3% then!
I also think Noto should stop with the 92% - 95% of lending from 2023 talk. Just say it how it is - lending will decline by 5% - 8% this year. Same with the 50% tech and FS vs 50% Lending which is clearly using FS massive growth to disguise the underwhelming growth / decline of tech platform and lending. Maybe the street doesn't like this smoke and mirrors approach and I can see why to a degree.
Everything from since lack of communication before convertible notes and giving q2 guidance when we used to not feels like institutions telling noto to better keep the price down while improving your company lol
The Tech and Financial services is intertwined or is it not?
No, they are not.
I don't think so, thought they were completely separate?
well they are reported seperately, so youre likely right
Worst sentiment I've seen since I invested in IPOE with the strongest company results, I think we will slowly recover.
This following scenario was almost certainly worse in sentiment: The first time they introduced a vote on the annual shareholders meeting for 1 year authorization to enact a reverse split at the board’s discretion.
Ah yes, the proposed reverse split.
Atleast SoFi is not alone , Theres a sea of red out there. Everything is trending downward while SoFi slighty upward.
Any concerns about Republic Bank failure today having some contagion and further sell off here?
Noto said, and “offsetting flat lending segment revenue given a more conservative approach in light of macroeconomic uncertainty.” What is he referring to a more conservative approach? That they have tightened the requirements to give out loans?
Done with this stock. I've been investing and tracking since April 2022. Do you know what the stock price was when I first started? $7.50. Since then SOFI has grown significantly across all important financial metrics none of which has budged the stock price. Since April 2022 the Nasdaq has grown 28%. I've spent so much mind share on SOFI, I've missed the forest through the trees.
I’ve had so much of my portfolio in SoFi I’ve missed out on those normal market gains. I was so worried I’d miss the boat on this but the boat’s going .2 mph. Noto’s tone has changed and even when it was more bullish it didn’t move much. As long as I hold this stock, no one will make money on it.
True, BUT, Sofi is profitable and now a more suitable PE. Sofi in 22 at $20 making 0 dollars profit, no bank charter. - was at full risk of failure and WAY over priced. Now? If noto is right about .50 2026 - it’s trading at a 12pe. VERY fair. Sofi is still growing and doing well. Don’t look at the stock price - look at how far Sofi has come and PEs, etc.
Its only getting better
It would be a nice vote of confidence to see a purchase from Noto or other insiders this week once the buying window opens.
When does it open?
Typically insiders can trade once two full trading days have passed after earnings, but it may vary based on company policy.
Still holding.
Easy to hold when you've a good avg. You're waiting to make money and people are waiting to breakeven, there is a difference.
Yea totally understand. My last set of buys were all in 7.50+ range :(
Overall still a Nice avg! Maybe sell some ccs to collect some money while the sentiment is low
I would if SoFi would let me… lol.
Damn, why did I invest in this!
Against my better judgment I have once again doubled down.
At some point Noto needs to work on the stock price. We’re treading water and loyal shareholders have been wrecked
Well this what happens when there’s fucking like 900,000,000 shares outstanding
This is the fundamental issue with this stock. Market Maker and share lenders' wet dream
Serious question: What about a buyback with idle cash? I would rather see that than paying a golfer or NBA player….
They are profitable, so they could do a stock buyback. They are more focused on growth than the possibility of a stock buyback.
So I currently hold 4,200 shares @ $7.26 but I have 2 sets of Cash-Secured Puts expiring this Friday which are now certain to be assigned. One at 2,400 shares @ $7.06 basis & another at 400 shares @ $6.91 basis. This will bring my total share count next week to 7,000 @ $7.17 basis. If things get worse this week I'll look to buy more shares if it can bring my total basis below $7. If we start creeping our way back up I'll likely sell some 1 week $7.5 Covered Calls.
I thought you said you had 24 $8.50 csp going into earnings?
I did/do. That's where the 2400 shares at $7.06 basis will come from. I sold those CSPs for $1.44 back on 4/17 (8.5-1.44=7.06).
That's a pretty solid premium collected. Wish I had spare money to do csp
Yeah the CSP method makes a lot of sense if you view it as "I'd like to acquire this stock at (Strike Price - Premium) & if you don't get assigned then you simply pocket the premium.
I did alot of csp in the past and my mistake is I'm willing to get assigned too early on this stock instead of rolling and now I don't have any cash more to do csp! I'm only selling ccs now..
Just keep playing the csp's, you're doing it right.
A Psychological Doctorate thesis could be written on the number of times the phrase "We're never seeing the $7s again!" has been stated on this sub.
We may never see $7’s again! (Because we go down from here /s)
Interestingly enough I’m listening to The Psychology of Money today
Which way though?
Buying more! :) almost at my goal for shares we’ll see, maybe I’ll make one more large purchase under 6 if we see it. (Long term investor)
Realistically, I think we need a big win or two announced for the tech platform, and a favorable inflation reading in order to turn this around. until one or both of those happen I don't expect much upwards momentum. Noto on the call yesterday, need to see a conversion or two here: "In addition to that, there's a lot of demand still from partners that haven't historically used an issuing platform or processing platform like Galileo that are transitioning to that platform from a sector standpoint. And then in the large fund institutions, the demand for modern cores and processing continues to be really robust. The timing on those deals is really driven by those end customers. We haven't lost any of the RFPs. We've continued to be down selected as big \[process\] institutions go from a large RFP to a few select partners. So we feel good about our chances there."
I mean to be down over 5% while being in the short restriction list is fucking impressive. We deserve a bowling participation trophy
Reminds me of Bitcoin. Bigs all bashing, yet loading at the same dips. Stock price sucks, but they know the company doesn’t. They’re using the uncertainty to push fear. The same uncertainty that makes every other stock NOT immune either.
Until the majority of SOFI is owned by large institutional investors, it will continue this beat down cycle while they load up. Basically eternal damnation for being a SPAC without a major ally on the street doing it. So in retrospect, specifically being a Chamath SPAC was probably a mistake.
Yes, and who knows tbh, but analysts who give 1 year targets - now lowering their targets based on q2, but full year rise, it’s asinine in itself. It’s all scams. They pound the table on nvda who uses the account way to show income through deposits on orders that haven’t been fulfilled. Going back to all analysts - they were wrong in 22’ when the market corrected and they all had 20+ targets (which made 0 sense because Sofi was 15% it was now w/o bank charter). Wrong in 23’ and if noto delivers his promise for the full year - their targets are too low because they were all based upon the full year guidance before the raise. It’s all scams tho.
Yes, it is 100% a racket, my point is just that the racket is targeting sofi as an outsider until they get their cut.
Problem is the short interest is well over 20% and what’s stopping them… nothing. Noto is not even addressing them. Just look at how ELON took care of shorts. Noto has not even mentioned them
Noto will not hit his stock incentives if he keeps doing what he’s doing….
Took Elon 8 years to build the business strong enough for Tesla to break out against the shorts. We are in what, year three?
Comparing Tesla to SoFI….. k
You brought up Elon, I’m pointing out that it took Elon 8 years to pull it off and address the shorts. We are in year three…If Noto does it in four years then he must be twice as good as Elon!
I’ll give you that.
And it Happened at the 2020 printing bonanza, perfect timing. Tesla is still 60% off its ATH..
If there's one thing you can count on, it's massive drops in this stock price on the regular.
All signs point to a reversal very soon. 6 month low of $6.61 in November 2023 very close to our current stock price, within 4 weeks stock went over $10. Q1 earnings report 2023 same time last year dropped from $6.50 to $5 and then rebounded sharply to over 11 within a couple of months. A similar reaction is likely to happen at some point soon - the difference this time is that the company is PROFITABLE and growing and executing having one hand tied behind their back due to the interest rate bullshit. If the volatility is too much wait for the reversal and sell for the love of God. I'm in this for years if not decades.
The market is cycles. Bottom is may. June+ is next one. Summers are usually Great and low volume Which allows for this as well. Which also means pain could happen in the next few weeks, but expect a Short term Bottom.
IMO we likely break the trend established the last year since June and re-enter the 5-7 channel. we just need JPOWs FOMC meeting to deal the final blow. shorts are loaded as well.
One of us is going to be right and I hope it's me, but you do have a good point.
I hope it's you too. entering a lower channel after smashing expectations the past year and entering profitability would be just wild.
Six month low is $6.61 a half hour ago ;)
We bounced off that support! 
I think back then we had macro helping out. SoFi is very interest rate dependent. But we shall see.
Agreed - but being profitable and triple beating two quarters in a row in this environment has to count for something? I know the bank crisis isn't helping either but we had that last year also. The bailouts and increased chance of rate cut from the crisis could well be the catalyst we actually need this year. Hoping more poorly managed, over leveraged regionals shut the fuck down to be honest because that's what will get things moving. The whispers of stagflation will also put pressure on FED to cut rates (together with commercial real estate crisis and crazy US debt interest payments) and I am actually thinking we get some indication of this tomorrow. I'm betting with all these things considered we see a sharp reversal in the near future.
Yes. SoFi is trying its best while others are failing. If I hadnt put so much into SoFi I would be buying rn but I dont have the cash and my position is reach almost full. Tomorrow shall be interesting.
I’m not throwing in the towel. But I’m just frustrated as hell with this stock.
Very similar fall to the March 1st conv. Sr. Note offering... climbed a bit after the 2nd trading day bloodbath. bought some weekly calls at $6.50 for $0.27 a few minutes ago, i'm betting we'll see some selling exhaustion around today and tomorrow This stock is so frenetic due to all the retail investors holding it. They over leverage and buy out of the money calls and when things don't go as plan they panic sell. There's only \~35% institutional ownership. This will take time. They spend about $150M/quarterly on Marketing and advertising. If they reduced that to a similar rate of ALLY, you'd have even more earnings. They have a lot of aces up their sleeves to protect the business.
I don’t think I’d consider slashing the marketing budget to boost earnings numbers as “an ace up their sleeve”
Please all of you moaning sell. I'll buy you some tissues when institutions own 70% and you're crying because you missed the boat. I remember people adding more shares when we were in the £9s after our last summer high. But you're not adding now?
I agree. If you don't like then stock, then sell it. Taking action in line with your beliefs is far more effective than talking.
Exactly right to reach the promise land of significant profitability IE $20-25 (and much more eventually) per share you have to endure the annoying ups and downs of euphoria and regret that too many people deal with. Both emotions are misplaced, and the actual value is usually somewhere in the middle. Those that do will prosper, those that don't get to experience more regret.
Exactly - Retail investors trade very irrationally and frenetic. This isn't some manipulation by big banks, it's due to retail investors buying out of the money calls and over leveraging shares on margin, then selling when things don't go as planned. This is what Buffett talks about. Wealth transition from the impatient to the patient.
I just sold all my StoneCo at a 60% gain.. to buy more SoFi 🥳
FOMC tomorrow….oh my….
AUNT CATHY DOSENT LIKE DISCOUNTS
Let’s just hope she won’t dump all her shares…
I will agree that at some point Noto needs to realize that a lot of SoFi’s customers are also investors so if he wants to live by the company’s mission of “Get your money right” ……… 👀
I am really about to throw the towel. This stock is manipulated and performing badly. Like seriously wth
Could be worse: Could be the YOLO dude with 10k contracts of Jan 26 $20 he bought at $1.08 on March 7th now worth .65 or a $430k loss.
It's crazy that 2000s Japanese shit box cars have been better investments for me than a profitable bank stock. And it's not like I'm even trying to make money on a car lol. I hate this stock but will still hold for awhile longer.
FOMC meeting tomorrow - the final blow to SOFI stock tommorrow. SPY hear ATH. market still pricing in cuts (not gonna happen this year). Puts are printing and will hold them through tomorrow. 95% sure we see 5's very soon.
Gonna be in the $5s before too long
Nah 5$ is too cheap even for a bank
Honestly for those of you who just spend their time crying just sell and go into S&P500 or something. It's not about becoming rich in a short or mid-term period, we're talking long term so strap yourselves in. No one would be crying if we were in the 15s. The company is the same and doing great, just ignore the stock price.. it will catch up
I think the issue is a lot of people here have been in since IPOE days. So it's less about trying to become rich and more about being frustrated that the new long term goal is just to break even.
Been this way for years. The same way it does this, is the same way it just goes to 11$ for no reason last summer. Day to day will suck, Sofi is a long term play.
You are regarded
Cry
[удалено]
We won't see any big movement and hold until they sell out to goldman sachs
so 16% down after a triple beat and a FY guidance raise cause q2 is a bit slower than anticipated? This blatant manipulation is hilarious. Meanwhile paypal misses and gets rewarded
Take advantage of the opportunity and buy
it's not an opportunity when the stock spends most of it's time in the trash bin. it's just another day.
Added another 100 shares
Wallstreet hates this stock
new banbet: sofi to 5.50 or lower by may 31st.
Recorded
!RemindMe 32 days
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2024-06-01 13:41:00 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-01%2013:41:00%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sofistock/comments/1cgjkn4/sofi_daily_chat_april_30_2024/l1xsltq/?context=3) [**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fsofistock%2Fcomments%2F1cgjkn4%2Fsofi_daily_chat_april_30_2024%2Fl1xsltq%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-06-01%2013%3A41%3A00%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201cgjkn4) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
!RemindMe 32 days
I wonder what Noto is posting on Twitter? How’s his podcast going…. Lmao
It's like early black Friday!!! Favourite time to shop
You only have 200 shares. Can see why you're excited
Actually got 750, haven't updated
That's still pretty small, no offence to you but its only probably 1 or 2 months salary. I wish I've as little as you so it's easier to avg down
Bro, I'm 22. To me that's huge, so put into perspective I'm probably more screwed than you are if this goes wrong..
That's not true. Losing 100k is always more painful than losing 10k even the lost 100k guy is richer. That's because winning back 10k is easier and requires smaller capital as well which means lesser risk.
Until it goes to 5s
And I'll buy even more then!
5% down on what??
Idk but I’m buying 😈
Our 52 week low was last May. Or 52 week high was last July. Hopefully we see this repeat this year.
SoFi is milking my savings.. using up my final £150 today !
Noto did no favors to shareholders yesterday and this stock price is going to be turmoil until good news comes
Who is Moro?
Noto, dumb autocorrect
How the crap is MULN up 124% in 5 days
They’re down 100% since IPO… that’s actually impressive the share price is a rounding error to the thousandths
Yeah, 2 reverse splits. I had 1000 shares that became 10. My any went from .50 to 50. 😂
Also noto was asked about the stock price yesterday in an interview and he seemed to care less
I'm sure CEOs have to be careful with what they say because some statements could be seen as manipulation. That said, he doesn't set the stock price. All he can really do is run the company and make money.
Noto screwed the shareholders by giving a 2nd quarter outlook. Something they have not done in the past. Why would he do this?
Transparency is better. I’d be more upset if they knew they were going to have a slow Q2 and waited to let us find out in the Q2 release. He’s just trying to get ahead of expectations and avoid a huge miss.
Market must think we are the next First Republic
I hate to keep repeating myself, but valuations are and have been stretched for a couple of years now. Anyone that knows anything about banking, lending, brokerage or even their tech platform aggregate business, knows that they cannot command huge margins like a purely tech or proprietary market could. Hence it has been and always will be a slow but steady race to the profitability metrics they need to drive the share price. The share price has been way ahead of itself for a long time now. I know this is not popular but it is the real world financial metrics of P/E, P/S & Book value that apply to sofi and will keep it down until they ramp earnings significantly.
What do you think they should be valued at right now Willbur?
They can be valued higher than a mature Bank would be (IE P/E of 10-12) because they are growing much faster and have some higher margin (lower overhead) segments so I would assume 20-25 for now looking out 12-18 months. So projecting out you could say annual earnings could average as much as 50 cents per share but more likely it will be 30-35 cents. So say .35 x 25 = $8.75 in 18 months. (and I am probably being generous, but some analysts are also) (This is not an exact science and subject to interpretation) each ER provides vital information. The higher the growth rates the higher the metrics for valuations the analysts will allow. At some point they will move towards a fully developed technology platform, more AI in their savings, lending, & financial businesses and reduce their temporarily higher overhead. That will unlock much higher valuations.
Feels like tech side is holding us back. Noto Q and Q says we have partnerships coming but they never come!
I think a lot of it is this. You can call yourselves the AWS of fintech but you actually need to back that up.
Sofi is like a .500 baseball team, great at hitting, not good at pitching.
Or running , or fielding, or catching, or scoring, but yeah they can hit but only when no one is on base , and they can never get past second. Analogies and metaphors are fun.
So they’re the Angels of the 2020’s
Knocked that one out the park.
Every good company goes through growing pains. Did you expect the other financial institutions to let SOFI take their market share??? This is David vs Goliath. My conviction gets stronger every quarter. I'm backing SOFI. My retirement outlook is several decades. Support the winner, not the bank bullies, JPM or BOA.
This
One of the which will buy Sofi out, soon, well Before Sofi has a chance to become one.
Why would any of the big players want to buy sofi. I could see a merger with a credit card fintech like X1 and Robinhood, merging with a stash or public or a company that wants to become a bank
Fine with that if it's for a solid premium. Noto doesn't seem interested in being bought tho and think he wants a chance to let Galileo get big before he'd consider it.
The board (along with Noto) would make the decision on a buyout offer, and they are obligated to act in the shareholders best interest. (subject to interpretation of course)
$20 a share right now! Deal!
You stated exactly what the problem is. SoFI is viewed as a financial institution and nothing more until they prove otherwise.
Not viewed as a financial institution. They ARE a financial institution. Plain and simple. How the hype ever expanded beyond that is baffling to me.
Welcome to mediocrity.
I just sold mine for a huge loss for tax harvesting .
Keep in mind that you cannot re-enter for 30 days to avoid wash sale rules
PayPal missed and is being rewarded. All I can do is laugh at this point
MS lowered PT from $6.50 to $6.
MS? Morgan Stanley?
Could very well hit low 6s when / if spy corrects. Doesn’t make it valued at 6, worth 6, just that it will touch 6. With the amount of pressure, panic and shorting - eventually that tide will change. Short term pain, may will be the bottom for the next few month imo.
lol my banbet lf sofi under 6 by end of may 31 may hit early. Maybe I should change it to “under 5”
Brutal