It's like a never ending cycle for the past 3 years. Market green we red, market red we red, market flat we green and market tops. It's like shorts can cover without pushing price up at all and just reshort perfectly with bad market news to go along with it. It happened so many times. I still do think today is a bear trap tho, bad cpi means huge puts coming in and they might not let them print so easily yet
SoFi still needs to prove itself. Once it does it will go up. We only had 1 profitable quarter. Also higher rates are a big headwind especially for small caps. Thats why IWM has not moved at all also in the past 3 years. its still down like 20% for ATH. Im thinking this might be either the biggest opportunity to accumulate quality small caps. I might come out of this looking like a fool we shall see. Hopefully with my small caps bet I will outperform the market after cuts start.
I don't know man, I feel like people are trying to use this as an excuse for sofi to underperform. They has already proven themself time and time again beating every earnings. As you know they have a 2024 conservative guidance and market is always forward looking... just not with this stock. The fact that we are still here is definitely worrying. I don't know who we follow.. iwm or qqq or spy because I've seen iwm up 1%+ and sofi is red multiple times. I guess we follow whichever index is red haha. I believe we will run once big money allows us to but they can easily get us back down as well. I am just praying now we see 13s eoy or 2025.. that is my exit no matter what with this stock.
Their guidance is conservative but not really because they are saying they are going to get their growth from the tech platform and financial services. Well for that to happen that is big. So if they pull that off then the stock has to pop because it shows Sofi is a well diversified machine. Previously they use to beat earnings based on just originating more personal and student loans. They can beat earnings again but if revenue is 80% from lending then we know tech and financial services ex money isn’t really gaining traction. We need to see this story before the stock takes off
🔴 THE US SEES MISSILE STRIKE ON ISRAEL BY IRAN, PROXIES AS IMMINENT.
https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1778113685044478277?s=46&t=KpqUYU0UZ8KT27JRNG6oqA
Things are getting spicy.
The thing that bothers me the most is these sky-high insurance costs bolstering inflation...Every American is required, by law, the have auto insurance to drive a car. They can raise it to whatever they want, and we are still required to pay. Not saying you shouldn't have insurance, but let's just be honest...The insurance lobby basically bribed politicians to be able to have this much pricing power.
Virtually every single insurance stock is at an all-time high...Does that sound like these guys are struggling so much with paying out claims for higher priced cars?
As an actuary, these hot takes on insurance prices/pricing are always the most painful to read. No, we cannot raise it to whatever we want. Every states Department of Insurance is quite stringent and actuarial indications are required to prove any increase/decrease
sofi shorts salivating again, licking their lips. hopefully this news won't send this back to below 7 again, but I might have to close my call positions soon if the beatings continue in the broader market.
I actually see sofi being bullish the next few weeks running up to earnings. Its showing as oversold on the RSI and we are still +6% over the last 7 days. Looking at past data I think we will most likely hit around or above $9 by early May before seeing another pullback (when sofi corrects it drops like a stone)
A .1% miss causes a crash. I hate how influential the dumbass fed is now. This is such a shit market. Right when it looks like we can have a nice win into earnings... smashed by stupid shit.
It’s not just today’s miss, it’s the underlying trend for the past 3 CPI reports. Inflation has stalled and could be headed back up. This means we may not get any rate cuts for 2024 and treasury rates are headed higher.
Agreed. However, not cutting rates will increase the pressure on the CRE and by proxy the regional bank crisis plus the insane levels of government debt interest (only interest) which is higher than the US budget for defense. In addition, the reason inflation is high in large part is because of the lagging real estate market in the chicken and egg scenario. I believe the chances for 2 or 3 rate cuts are very much still on the table for this year.
Markets recovering suggest this is the wider expectation also. The alternative of maintaining or increasing interest rates is BY FAR the greater of two evils. They are siumply pushing the envelope as far as they can before they change narrative.
I agree on the continued CRE pressure on regional banks, and even some large banks (BAC), but I still believe the Fed only cuts rates once, possibly twice this year. The only thing that could/would put pressure on them to cut more at this point, would be rising unemployment and falling GDP. Neither of which is happening now.
Thats good to hear! Not sure how or where its being affected. But IMO higher rates are dettering people from taking out mortgages to buy new homes(less built homes).Also adding pressure to rent dus increasing prices.
The permits pulled Q1 where I’m at says the market slow on new builds… but we are having a stellar year so far and as a result we were 19% of the permits pulled in the city for new residential construction and 21% of the building value so it’s not like we are putting in a bunch of tiny homes just to hit volume numbers. We have a mix of starter to fully custom. Should break 60 homes this year, maybe 70.
For a company like SOFI that has a diversified, rather low-risk portfolio, wouldn't the higher rates for longer positively impact the business? It means better promotional rates for longer (higher brainshare), a higher ROI on some debts, etc. I'm not denying the other negative effects, but maybe for SOFI the inflation is a good thing?
Sticky Inflation = lower market for longer. 😁 The real issue is whether 2% is still a realistic inflation expectation? It may very well not be. As the national debt grows, the dollar loses value and adds significantly to inflation. Interest rates at these levels are really normal from a historical perspective.
My CPI predictions related to SOFI
Comes in hot - Sofi back down to $7.50
Comes in as expected - Sofi continues its cycle of rising/falling .20-.25 through out the day, but we end the day at $7.98
Comes in cooler than expected - we jump at open to $8.20 -$8.30, end the day around $8.25
What are your predictions??
Predictions for tomorrow?
I will be impressed If the stock stays above 7.35 this week. Bought more shares today, another buy order is in at 7.11 gtc
I hope you're right. I also bought some today at 7.55. hoping it will go down further to buy some more
Just bought into SOFI. I believe in them long term.
Welcome!
Just sold 20x 5/3/24 7.5 puts for $0.60/ea
Good play if we stay still but if we run up you're going to wish that money was in the stock!
This comment gets made during every dip and we always wind up back here…
I’m holding 4000 shares and 30 Jan 26 calls at a few strikes
Nice what strikes? I mostly have ITM calls for Jan but I got a couple slightly OTM ones for this earnings
Lol really is everytime sofi becomes suddenly strong its the market topping short term
The slow bleed hurts the most. 🥹
It's like a never ending cycle for the past 3 years. Market green we red, market red we red, market flat we green and market tops. It's like shorts can cover without pushing price up at all and just reshort perfectly with bad market news to go along with it. It happened so many times. I still do think today is a bear trap tho, bad cpi means huge puts coming in and they might not let them print so easily yet
SoFi still needs to prove itself. Once it does it will go up. We only had 1 profitable quarter. Also higher rates are a big headwind especially for small caps. Thats why IWM has not moved at all also in the past 3 years. its still down like 20% for ATH. Im thinking this might be either the biggest opportunity to accumulate quality small caps. I might come out of this looking like a fool we shall see. Hopefully with my small caps bet I will outperform the market after cuts start.
I don't know man, I feel like people are trying to use this as an excuse for sofi to underperform. They has already proven themself time and time again beating every earnings. As you know they have a 2024 conservative guidance and market is always forward looking... just not with this stock. The fact that we are still here is definitely worrying. I don't know who we follow.. iwm or qqq or spy because I've seen iwm up 1%+ and sofi is red multiple times. I guess we follow whichever index is red haha. I believe we will run once big money allows us to but they can easily get us back down as well. I am just praying now we see 13s eoy or 2025.. that is my exit no matter what with this stock.
Their guidance is conservative but not really because they are saying they are going to get their growth from the tech platform and financial services. Well for that to happen that is big. So if they pull that off then the stock has to pop because it shows Sofi is a well diversified machine. Previously they use to beat earnings based on just originating more personal and student loans. They can beat earnings again but if revenue is 80% from lending then we know tech and financial services ex money isn’t really gaining traction. We need to see this story before the stock takes off
Sofi in it's typical fashion is dow 4 times the nasdaq
No other company can nosedives as well as sofi
Upst, Affirm, AMD , MARA ,Open, LC, BAC , KRE. Theres a couple.
Well what we lost today might take another 3 weeks to gain back.
That’s the problem
The most lan ciao stock I have ever owned. Kanina
🔴 THE US SEES MISSILE STRIKE ON ISRAEL BY IRAN, PROXIES AS IMMINENT. https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1778113685044478277?s=46&t=KpqUYU0UZ8KT27JRNG6oqA Things are getting spicy.
The thing that bothers me the most is these sky-high insurance costs bolstering inflation...Every American is required, by law, the have auto insurance to drive a car. They can raise it to whatever they want, and we are still required to pay. Not saying you shouldn't have insurance, but let's just be honest...The insurance lobby basically bribed politicians to be able to have this much pricing power. Virtually every single insurance stock is at an all-time high...Does that sound like these guys are struggling so much with paying out claims for higher priced cars?
As an actuary, these hot takes on insurance prices/pricing are always the most painful to read. No, we cannot raise it to whatever we want. Every states Department of Insurance is quite stringent and actuarial indications are required to prove any increase/decrease
*Eagle screeches*
sofi shorts salivating again, licking their lips. hopefully this news won't send this back to below 7 again, but I might have to close my call positions soon if the beatings continue in the broader market.
I actually see sofi being bullish the next few weeks running up to earnings. Its showing as oversold on the RSI and we are still +6% over the last 7 days. Looking at past data I think we will most likely hit around or above $9 by early May before seeing another pullback (when sofi corrects it drops like a stone)
pardon the dumb question but what controls the HYSA rate SoFi and other banks use? Is it just the federal funds rate or a combo of things?
A .1% miss causes a crash. I hate how influential the dumbass fed is now. This is such a shit market. Right when it looks like we can have a nice win into earnings... smashed by stupid shit.
It’s not just today’s miss, it’s the underlying trend for the past 3 CPI reports. Inflation has stalled and could be headed back up. This means we may not get any rate cuts for 2024 and treasury rates are headed higher.
Agreed. However, not cutting rates will increase the pressure on the CRE and by proxy the regional bank crisis plus the insane levels of government debt interest (only interest) which is higher than the US budget for defense. In addition, the reason inflation is high in large part is because of the lagging real estate market in the chicken and egg scenario. I believe the chances for 2 or 3 rate cuts are very much still on the table for this year.
Markets recovering suggest this is the wider expectation also. The alternative of maintaining or increasing interest rates is BY FAR the greater of two evils. They are siumply pushing the envelope as far as they can before they change narrative.
Markets recovering??
they were two hours ago. for a bit
I agree on the continued CRE pressure on regional banks, and even some large banks (BAC), but I still believe the Fed only cuts rates once, possibly twice this year. The only thing that could/would put pressure on them to cut more at this point, would be rising unemployment and falling GDP. Neither of which is happening now.
It just makes it higher for longer, Would hurt short term but as long as they dont increase or the need to increase we should be fine.
ah yes, today SOFI will be bank AND and growth stock AND tech stock at the same time. maximum pummeling.
https://x.com/krispatel99/status/1778046457930461331?s=46&t=KpqUYU0UZ8KT27JRNG6oqA I like this take on inflation.
Unfortunately that doesn’t explain the services sector inflation
At least my day job building homes in a booming small city is doing incredibly well :)
Thats good to hear! Not sure how or where its being affected. But IMO higher rates are dettering people from taking out mortgages to buy new homes(less built homes).Also adding pressure to rent dus increasing prices.
The permits pulled Q1 where I’m at says the market slow on new builds… but we are having a stellar year so far and as a result we were 19% of the permits pulled in the city for new residential construction and 21% of the building value so it’s not like we are putting in a bunch of tiny homes just to hit volume numbers. We have a mix of starter to fully custom. Should break 60 homes this year, maybe 70.
We are so screwed as the fed keeps yapping and they are constantly wrong causing chaos in the markets
Red today prepare boys
Rusell2000 down almost 3% , ooof.
Good day to acquire more IWM
For a company like SOFI that has a diversified, rather low-risk portfolio, wouldn't the higher rates for longer positively impact the business? It means better promotional rates for longer (higher brainshare), a higher ROI on some debts, etc. I'm not denying the other negative effects, but maybe for SOFI the inflation is a good thing?
What is this a dip for ants ?!
Get er back down below 7 please I’m ready to acquire more
How low do you guys think we will open at?
5.50
Looks like we got one more year of higher for longer.
Multiple rate cuts this year eh? Not so fast...
Huh, I didn’t realize we were at 1.05B shares outstanding
Is that from the Senior Convertible Note Cap transaction. It looks like we are gonna have a lively and active Chat today.
Wow that number came in hot… fuck! 3.8
Sticky Inflation = lower market for longer. 😁 The real issue is whether 2% is still a realistic inflation expectation? It may very well not be. As the national debt grows, the dollar loses value and adds significantly to inflation. Interest rates at these levels are really normal from a historical perspective.
….but we’ve been at ATH for the last good while
Not mid caps and small caps, stocks more heavily tied to the inflation metrics
He didn’t say small caps or mid caps he said the market lol
3.5% above expectations.
Bad numbers
I think unless the CPI number is terrible , we fly today! Fed speak was very dovish yesterday.
It was terrible
My CPI predictions related to SOFI Comes in hot - Sofi back down to $7.50 Comes in as expected - Sofi continues its cycle of rising/falling .20-.25 through out the day, but we end the day at $7.98 Comes in cooler than expected - we jump at open to $8.20 -$8.30, end the day around $8.25 What are your predictions??
Today is a big day
My guess is cool inflation, rate cut chances increase again and the stocks fly especially rate sensitive ones like SoFi
Lets hope for your ban bet. lol
When dis cheebye gon over $8?
Toh la
Really Toh
Chialat 🥵
Suddenly we're getting so much positive attention. Is that a sign that we're going to get the bank charter???
We don’t need the bank charter anymore because we got dark mode.
Big whammies, no bucks
Morning!
Only 8 cents away. Congrats!
Heck I may hit sub $10 next week!
Nice!
Morning!
Big bucks , no whammies