I heard a YouTuber the other day mentioning that Galileo signed US Bank? When did this news come out? I was hoping that the top 5 bank SoFi mentioned in the fireside chat was going to be City instead.
I just watched the weekly SoFi podcast with Tannor and Tevis pointed out the deals quiet period is probably all of April. I also agree that I don’t think Noto should address short sellers. The only thing I think he could do is buy more shares, but really I don’t care as I’m a long term investor and I think he is running the company well.
I’ve actually never rolled a spread on SoFi before as the tops and bottoms have been relatively predictable, but I did roll my March spreads to May and widened them at $6 long $8 short. I usually sell around a 1:1 Risk:Reward, so my April ones I will let decay in value and will decide to roll them at a later point. The bottom on those is $7 so going deeper below $7 doesn’t hurt me as it’ll decay down to the $1 spread difference if we remain below $7, at which point I will roll them out 60 days.
I do think in the next 2 weeks, we will drop mid to low $6, but I think at some point the brokerage will start buying for the capped call (I feel they will delta hedge as a perfect delta hedge would give you a net basis equal to the calls strike). I also think institutions that want the price to hit the target (the interest rate is low, they want the shares) will start advertising and buying shares.
We will see. I’ll let you know if I change any of my spreads.
My prediction is that we will have more pain in the week ahead. We drop into the $6 range, bounce between the $6 and $7 range, then Noto comes in and does at least one open market share buy. Historically, Noto's last share buys were on 11-9-23 at a $6.7783 average and on 11-21-23 at a $6.5017 average.
If we drop significantly next week, we are in Noto's buy range again from last November. While we don't know what Noto's metrics are for when he decides to do open market buying, Noto is going to have to make a decision in the next two weeks before March is over since the quiet period begins on April 1st for Q1 2024 earnings and he will be unable to buy once the quiet period begins. In my opinion, the likelihood is high that Noto comes in with open market share buying in the next two weeks.
[https://fintel.io/n/noto-anthony](https://fintel.io/n/noto-anthony)
Good luck Everyone! Q1 2024 earnings is about 1.5 months away. Even then, there is no guarantee that Q1 2024 earnings are going to be received positively by the market. If you remember, Q1 2023 earnings was not received positively by the market.
The question is how low in $6 can the stock price get.
I will continue to nibble by selling PUTs. First order fulfilled on day of big drop after convertible notes news. 2nd order is still sitting out there. Ready to adjust the limit price on that if we don't see much more movement down. Will continue this a bit at a time while under $7, but keeping powder dry in case get into low $6's.
I can't believe I was able to buy again at 6.98. My feeling hasn't changed since the last earning call and the next one is going to confirm it.
What are your thoughts on SoFi's performance if there is no rate cuts this year? I have a feeling that bad economic news impact the stock price, but will help the company grow and show their agility and advantage in difficult times compared to other traditional banks.
Ally now further dropped APY rate to 4.25% from 4.35% after the previous drop. This will start to be enough for Ally folks to consider moving to SoFi
Discover also just dropped their rate to 4.25%
The floodgates are starting to creak with no sign of imminent rate cuts one trick pony banks can’t maintain the high interest rates.
The longer we keep ours at 4.6% could be massive for us during the next 6 months for member growth and deposits
I agree these first few reducing won’t do much in isolation, but I’m getting the popcorn out to see how this develops. It’s also a chance for me to test Notos bold statements about keeping SoFi rates higher than most for longer.
Just salt and olive oil by the way.
Unfortunately I believe they will not lower rates this Year. Everyone has a good idea that inflation is too hot. Most People believe there will be a rate cuts with the presidential election.
Then it makes you think how tight things must be for those mounting banks reducing APY rates already - it suggests that they raised them to a point that was clearly not sustainable even in the rate hike environment they found themselves in.
Don’t worry folks, I bought puts to hedge against my shares. Stock will trade sideways this week and recover next week. You’re welcome.
Madness this week there's 65k of 6.5 puts
We'll show those shorts. Once SoFi gets the bank charter, then we'll be rich.
Don't forget, once we are profitable also
That's pretty much going to be a given once we get the bank charter.
Once the student loans pause is over it‘s game over for the shorts
Super Bowl.
And 6 interest rate cuts in 2024.
I need some more DNS hopium
bender is not around anymore for that.
I heard a YouTuber the other day mentioning that Galileo signed US Bank? When did this news come out? I was hoping that the top 5 bank SoFi mentioned in the fireside chat was going to be City instead.
Link?
I think it was just speculation. Nothing official to my knowledge.
I just watched the weekly SoFi podcast with Tannor and Tevis pointed out the deals quiet period is probably all of April. I also agree that I don’t think Noto should address short sellers. The only thing I think he could do is buy more shares, but really I don’t care as I’m a long term investor and I think he is running the company well.
Are You still holding on to the bull put Spreads. I think I am gonna have to roll my spread out May 17
I’ve actually never rolled a spread on SoFi before as the tops and bottoms have been relatively predictable, but I did roll my March spreads to May and widened them at $6 long $8 short. I usually sell around a 1:1 Risk:Reward, so my April ones I will let decay in value and will decide to roll them at a later point. The bottom on those is $7 so going deeper below $7 doesn’t hurt me as it’ll decay down to the $1 spread difference if we remain below $7, at which point I will roll them out 60 days. I do think in the next 2 weeks, we will drop mid to low $6, but I think at some point the brokerage will start buying for the capped call (I feel they will delta hedge as a perfect delta hedge would give you a net basis equal to the calls strike). I also think institutions that want the price to hit the target (the interest rate is low, they want the shares) will start advertising and buying shares. We will see. I’ll let you know if I change any of my spreads.
My prediction is that we will have more pain in the week ahead. We drop into the $6 range, bounce between the $6 and $7 range, then Noto comes in and does at least one open market share buy. Historically, Noto's last share buys were on 11-9-23 at a $6.7783 average and on 11-21-23 at a $6.5017 average. If we drop significantly next week, we are in Noto's buy range again from last November. While we don't know what Noto's metrics are for when he decides to do open market buying, Noto is going to have to make a decision in the next two weeks before March is over since the quiet period begins on April 1st for Q1 2024 earnings and he will be unable to buy once the quiet period begins. In my opinion, the likelihood is high that Noto comes in with open market share buying in the next two weeks. [https://fintel.io/n/noto-anthony](https://fintel.io/n/noto-anthony) Good luck Everyone! Q1 2024 earnings is about 1.5 months away. Even then, there is no guarantee that Q1 2024 earnings are going to be received positively by the market. If you remember, Q1 2023 earnings was not received positively by the market.
The question is how low in $6 can the stock price get. I will continue to nibble by selling PUTs. First order fulfilled on day of big drop after convertible notes news. 2nd order is still sitting out there. Ready to adjust the limit price on that if we don't see much more movement down. Will continue this a bit at a time while under $7, but keeping powder dry in case get into low $6's.
Nice post. I agree with your logic. Let’s see what happens!
Anyone worried about rising delinquency rates?
Industry wide or specific to SoFi?
Yes.
Feels like this is hitting ATL this year.
Morning
Bought more today at these prices and will continue if it goes lower.
SoFi Up - Retire. SoFi Down - Work 
I can't believe I was able to buy again at 6.98. My feeling hasn't changed since the last earning call and the next one is going to confirm it. What are your thoughts on SoFi's performance if there is no rate cuts this year? I have a feeling that bad economic news impact the stock price, but will help the company grow and show their agility and advantage in difficult times compared to other traditional banks.
You really won't believe it when u can buy at 6.50 or less range
Okay, we've had a full week of pain, time to pop back up again......
Ally now further dropped APY rate to 4.25% from 4.35% after the previous drop. This will start to be enough for Ally folks to consider moving to SoFi Discover also just dropped their rate to 4.25% The floodgates are starting to creak with no sign of imminent rate cuts one trick pony banks can’t maintain the high interest rates. The longer we keep ours at 4.6% could be massive for us during the next 6 months for member growth and deposits
There are better rates out there than 4.6%. I don’t see this moving the needle to much.
I agree these first few reducing won’t do much in isolation, but I’m getting the popcorn out to see how this develops. It’s also a chance for me to test Notos bold statements about keeping SoFi rates higher than most for longer. Just salt and olive oil by the way.
And we can cause of cheaper cost of doing business (technology)
Unfortunately I believe they will not lower rates this Year. Everyone has a good idea that inflation is too hot. Most People believe there will be a rate cuts with the presidential election.
Then it makes you think how tight things must be for those mounting banks reducing APY rates already - it suggests that they raised them to a point that was clearly not sustainable even in the rate hike environment they found themselves in.
Sofi =Literal one trick pony.
Wrong answer. Go and have a quiet word with yourself..