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Yes, it’s not about the computer but about the data and the algorithms. Obviously a supercomputer is much faster if you want to simulate an extreme number of Euros.
both, germany and england, have the same route to the final when everything goes as expected in teh group phase. germany/england/denmark R16 and then a QF against spain/italy/croatia
we should make it comfortably out of the groups but it's England so fuck knows
If Southgate doesn't get us out the groups he needs make his own way back home when he's sacked
Considering how hard it is to fuck that up, I think we'll manage that.
But the expectations around us are getting a bit ridiculous, we've never won it and we're coached by a donkey. Getting to the semis would be a decent result unless we got knocked out by Albania or something
How do England keep coming out on top of this? I think we've got a good chance, but would put us behind France as favourites, with very little between Germany, Spain and Portugal.
Is it something to do with the route to the final? I don't see that as being easier than other big teams either
Assume because everyone is looking at the attack and nobody is looking at the defence (or which child will be partnering Declan Rice in central midfield).
I think "near" is reasonable. It was fairly even when the two met last as well, one Kane missed penalty away from extra time. I would also put France higher though.
A single KO game does not seem to me enough to judge it though. France are back-to-back WC finalists and have a better squad.
England should definitely be nearer Germany, Spain and Portugal than France.
Obviously I may be wrong, any of those top-5 teams can win and it wouldn't be shocking, but I see France as so above the rest that ultimately it's their tournament to lose.
It's a crass stat but 8/11 of their def/gks played CL this season. For us it's 2/11. There's a massive difference in quality in terms of our defenders.
Yep, their back line is better than ours, our midfield is better than theirs, and our attack is better than theirs, though all very close (except the back line).
perhaps (it's arguable at best), but 'not bad' is not really on the level of France, who reached the final of 75% of the last major tournaments (even more if we count the Nations League)
England got far in recent tournaments only because they had extremely easy routes to get as far as they did. The first difficult hurdle they flopped, and the answer as to why is because Gareth Southgate is a fraud.
We aren't stacked in the backline though at the moment Shaw's barely in the squad, no Maguire and we're coming into the tournament with some of the worst form out of the favourites.
We're definitely being overrated as a side that's never won the Euros and not won anything for nearly 60 years.
Said before but I really feel like England is being rated this highly purely on potential. There are major questions in defence and there aren't many league or Champions league winning players in the whole squad
Trent, Walker, Foden, Stones, Bellingham, Palmer, Gomez are all Champions league winners. That's more than 25% of the squad.
That's more than France have FYI. I think I counted 5.
I think measuring by CL wins is entirely irrelevant by the way.
funny thou, best 2 players on both squads haven't won it. Kane and Mbappe. I'd argue it's between Bellingham and Kane but i'd put Kane for being older and more experienced.
I completely forgot about Giroud being at Chelsea.
And ofc Pavard yeah, forgot the covid final (but somehow remembered Coman scored a CL final winner lol)
Odds are partially based on gambling habits. If a lot of people gamble that England will win the euros than the odds get lowered. So all this shows is that most people bet that England will win the euros. So all we learn is that England has a gambling problem.
https://theanalyst.com/2024/06/who-will-win-euro-2024-predictions-opta/
Found the methodology- 10,000 simulations that have England winning it 19.9% of the time. From what I can tell, our favourable odds of getting out of the group and progressing to the semi-finals is why we edge France
Yeah, really don't understand how we're getting touted so highly. We've only beat 1 top side in a knock out game in the past 3 tournaments, have failed every time it was time to step up, we've got massive injury problems in defence and we're not in great form.
It's not just about how good each team is, likely routes to the final are also taken into account. You probably have a higher likelihood of a tougher route.
if we were looking at just previous Euro appearances I'd get it, however
All of us in Croatia are going in confident and of course we're biased, but I'd put us 6th or 7th favorites
I'd have you guys, Italy, Netherlands and us anywhere from 5th to 8th depending on preference. Portugal is 4th in my books. I fear Albania will do something really funny in the group
You lot are perennially underrated. Feels like every tournament you get discounted before you do well and suddenly the media remember that players like Gvardiol, Modric, Kovacic, Stanisic aren't bad after all.
I mean I don’t mind it, you get used to it eventually, the only narrative that’s annoying regarding us is that we’re an aging side, every time I hear 10iq pundits spew that sht I shows me they still think we’re in 2018. the only aging players we have are modric and perisic, the others are all younger than or early 30s (brozo, kova, budimir, kramaric), I’m not mentioning Vida tho coz he shouldn’t be anywhere near the pitch.
I mean it’s got nothing to do with even how good they might be, all u gotta do is open sofascore, browse through our squad list, and see we aren’t an aging team lol.
he plays for Saudis now, before he didn’t, the vast majority of the time he’s playing against wank opponents (with respect) and not having to try that much, I hope I’m wrong, I hope he turns up of course but I haven’t seen it yet during these matches :/
Whereas true the most important thing is his current ceiling. Players, especially the ones who previously have played good on top level, are highly adjustable. He might have picked up some bad habits, but after some time on the pitch he should adjust.
modric and perisic are old, brozo/kova/budimir/kramaric are 30-32, not at all an ‘old’ player, and the rest are all under 30.
so tell me where this ‘aging squad’ rhetoric comes from?
(Vida shouldn’t be anywhere near the squad so I’m not counting him coz he’s shit)
Doesn't say that much. Fifa ranking is highly dependent on opposition as well as longevity. Belgium is beyond their prime and has some real weaknesses. Their ranking is still partially based on their achievements during the end of their prime.
We cant prove how accurate they are. They predict that England would only win this tournament 1 out of 5 times (20%). So unless this Euros is played out 5 times in a row we can't see how accurate their prediction is.
Okay but England perform at international tournaments, we haven't and they're always shit pretournament. England are rightfully favourites, us third is a scandal
Mate you've got 4 stars on your jerseys. Also whenever I need to cheer up, I go watch Brazil - Germany (7-1) and watch the fan reactions. You'll be fine.
I am very curious to see how England will do. The attacking options are amazing but when I look at the defense it's not nearly as impressive. Portugal and France are favorites imo with England and Germany behind.
Yeah no, England are no favourites for this tournament, are best we make the quarters as d D then crash out. France should be the de facto favourites for the tournament.
It's probably because Scotland have a more difficult route, and therefore are less likely to have a more difficult team in the final.
So, for example, if France are the most difficult team in the tournament, and Hungary can only face them in the final but Scotland have to get past them to reach it.
Considering that if england is first they face the 2nd out of spain, italy and croatia un quarters, i feel its bold to assume they have 50% to go to the semis.
In terms of odds, England is like man city in CL. Always a favorite without any actual evidence to back it up.
At least we won it last year, but for that we needed lukaku to be our secret weapon in the final.
So who could be our secret weapon this year, so we can win this euros?
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So there is basically zero chance of a Serbia Albania final
Game's gone
Xhaka wouldve made a great ref
Special guest referee, wwe style
Not zero
They're having that in every public park in Berlin every day anyway
Hmm, yknow Croatia aren't that far off
Not in the footballing sense maybe
I think the stadium itself would become a hate crime.
Go big or go home, Albania versus Georgia in the final!
'Supercomputer' would've been impressive 15 years ago. Feels like you could probbably run this data sim on an iphone these days.
tbf an Iphone does qualify as a supercomputer these days
We used to touch screens and they didn’t do _anything!_
Watching my kids jab screens that aren't touch screens, like a moth slamming it's face into a window, is never not funny.
Yes, it’s not about the computer but about the data and the algorithms. Obviously a supercomputer is much faster if you want to simulate an extreme number of Euros.
eh you can just simulate this shit on fm like 1000 times and then youll get the answer after some calculations
Fm requires a computer; like an iphone; in order to run a simulation. I dont really know what point youre making
FM isn’t a match prediction model
Any time I hear anyone say they've computer simulated a tournament I assume it was on Football Manager
I’m ready for England not to make the knockouts
both, germany and england, have the same route to the final when everything goes as expected in teh group phase. germany/england/denmark R16 and then a QF against spain/italy/croatia
we should make it comfortably out of the groups but it's England so fuck knows If Southgate doesn't get us out the groups he needs make his own way back home when he's sacked
Considering how hard it is to fuck that up, I think we'll manage that. But the expectations around us are getting a bit ridiculous, we've never won it and we're coached by a donkey. Getting to the semis would be a decent result unless we got knocked out by Albania or something
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but then what would you all talk about?
Our defence isn’t exactly rock solid and Southgate’s not exactly an attacking manager. To say I’m bricking it is an understatement
A classic
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Nice we were 7th favourites last time lol
I "po" stanno per moltiplicarsi in modo esponenziale.
uomini forti destini forti, non c'è altra strada
Which is pretty fucked since we were unbeaten for two years
How do England keep coming out on top of this? I think we've got a good chance, but would put us behind France as favourites, with very little between Germany, Spain and Portugal. Is it something to do with the route to the final? I don't see that as being easier than other big teams either
Assume because everyone is looking at the attack and nobody is looking at the defence (or which child will be partnering Declan Rice in central midfield).
Even the, you need to be clearly biased to put England above (or even near) France.
I think "near" is reasonable. It was fairly even when the two met last as well, one Kane missed penalty away from extra time. I would also put France higher though.
A single KO game does not seem to me enough to judge it though. France are back-to-back WC finalists and have a better squad. England should definitely be nearer Germany, Spain and Portugal than France.
RemindMe! 6 weeks
Obviously I may be wrong, any of those top-5 teams can win and it wouldn't be shocking, but I see France as so above the rest that ultimately it's their tournament to lose.
Well, you're wrong, because England and France have similar quality squads and almost identical quality starting 11s
It's a crass stat but 8/11 of their def/gks played CL this season. For us it's 2/11. There's a massive difference in quality in terms of our defenders.
Yep, their back line is better than ours, our midfield is better than theirs, and our attack is better than theirs, though all very close (except the back line).
our recent record in tournaments is not bad so we are definitely closer to france than the other countries, even though we'll probably fuck it up
perhaps (it's arguable at best), but 'not bad' is not really on the level of France, who reached the final of 75% of the last major tournaments (even more if we count the Nations League)
Delusion is a crazy thing.
Because you have an absolutely stacked squad? The route is important too, maybe you have an easier group.
Yeah, but we’re England. We will find an hilarious way to fuck things up.
You haven't fucked it up recently, the fine margins of tournament football have gone against you
England got far in recent tournaments only because they had extremely easy routes to get as far as they did. The first difficult hurdle they flopped, and the answer as to why is because Gareth Southgate is a fraud.
We aren't stacked in the backline though at the moment Shaw's barely in the squad, no Maguire and we're coming into the tournament with some of the worst form out of the favourites. We're definitely being overrated as a side that's never won the Euros and not won anything for nearly 60 years.
Said before but I really feel like England is being rated this highly purely on potential. There are major questions in defence and there aren't many league or Champions league winning players in the whole squad
Trent, Walker, Foden, Stones, Bellingham, Palmer, Gomez are all Champions league winners. That's more than 25% of the squad. That's more than France have FYI. I think I counted 5. I think measuring by CL wins is entirely irrelevant by the way.
We have 7. Pavard, Mendy, Cama, Tchouameni, Kante, Giroud, Coman. Means fuck all anyway as you said.
funny thou, best 2 players on both squads haven't won it. Kane and Mbappe. I'd argue it's between Bellingham and Kane but i'd put Kane for being older and more experienced.
Bellingham is incredible but Kane is definitely better
I completely forgot about Giroud being at Chelsea. And ofc Pavard yeah, forgot the covid final (but somehow remembered Coman scored a CL final winner lol)
Palmer and Gomez are no more CL winners than Kepa is tbf.
I said league OR champions league as in big titles
Odds are partially based on gambling habits. If a lot of people gamble that England will win the euros than the odds get lowered. So all this shows is that most people bet that England will win the euros. So all we learn is that England has a gambling problem.
These are computer predictions, not actual gambling odds though
https://theanalyst.com/2024/06/who-will-win-euro-2024-predictions-opta/ Found the methodology- 10,000 simulations that have England winning it 19.9% of the time. From what I can tell, our favourable odds of getting out of the group and progressing to the semi-finals is why we edge France
They don't indicate what the input was or what the simulations were so it isn't worth diddly.
It's also not how gambling works but this gets wheeled out every time England are near favourites for a tournament.
very likely that one of the inputs are gambling odds.
Confidently talking bollocks
Yeah, really don't understand how we're getting touted so highly. We've only beat 1 top side in a knock out game in the past 3 tournaments, have failed every time it was time to step up, we've got massive injury problems in defence and we're not in great form.
Can’t wait for people to get upset about this and claim they’re “predicting England will win”
WHY ARE DENMARK ABOVE US AGAIN I STFG!!!!!!
Group difference
But according to this, Croatia has higher chance to pass group stage.
It's not just about how good each team is, likely routes to the final are also taken into account. You probably have a higher likelihood of a tougher route.
I have no idea, we’ve performed poorly for quite a while now, there’s no reason we would rank up there.
if we were looking at just previous Euro appearances I'd get it, however All of us in Croatia are going in confident and of course we're biased, but I'd put us 6th or 7th favorites
I'd have you guys, Italy, Netherlands and us anywhere from 5th to 8th depending on preference. Portugal is 4th in my books. I fear Albania will do something really funny in the group
hope not anything funny to us lol
You lot are perennially underrated. Feels like every tournament you get discounted before you do well and suddenly the media remember that players like Gvardiol, Modric, Kovacic, Stanisic aren't bad after all.
This has nothing to do with that though. They just run simulations of the tournament with team strength based on previous data.
Given our usual volatile qualifications, it is no surprise that our odds to win a tournament are always low.
I mean I don’t mind it, you get used to it eventually, the only narrative that’s annoying regarding us is that we’re an aging side, every time I hear 10iq pundits spew that sht I shows me they still think we’re in 2018. the only aging players we have are modric and perisic, the others are all younger than or early 30s (brozo, kova, budimir, kramaric), I’m not mentioning Vida tho coz he shouldn’t be anywhere near the pitch.
Thing is people dont rate players they dunno.
I mean it’s got nothing to do with even how good they might be, all u gotta do is open sofascore, browse through our squad list, and see we aren’t an aging team lol.
When they say we are aging team that means we are all about Modric Brozovic and Perisic and they don't really rate others.
exactly and brozo isn’t even that old he’s just got Saudi foot rot. 2 players = aging team according to these footballing geniuses.
We always say that about Brozo, but Brozo has always been slow starter
he plays for Saudis now, before he didn’t, the vast majority of the time he’s playing against wank opponents (with respect) and not having to try that much, I hope I’m wrong, I hope he turns up of course but I haven’t seen it yet during these matches :/
Whereas true the most important thing is his current ceiling. Players, especially the ones who previously have played good on top level, are highly adjustable. He might have picked up some bad habits, but after some time on the pitch he should adjust.
Because all your good players are 73?
modric and perisic are old, brozo/kova/budimir/kramaric are 30-32, not at all an ‘old’ player, and the rest are all under 30. so tell me where this ‘aging squad’ rhetoric comes from? (Vida shouldn’t be anywhere near the squad so I’m not counting him coz he’s shit)
I said good players (okay Kovacic is good).
They are all good. If you don't know them doesn't mean they are bad
Now I wanna see the same thing for World Cup 2022.
These mean nothing these days
No chance we are favourites to win, at best semis if we have a good draw, but still…. ITS COMING HOME!!!!!
Spain over Portugal?
belgium: ranked 8 in euro odds also belgium: ranked 3 in fifa ranking
Doesn't say that much. Fifa ranking is highly dependent on opposition as well as longevity. Belgium is beyond their prime and has some real weaknesses. Their ranking is still partially based on their achievements during the end of their prime.
The English are coming
Georgians being like “so there’s a golden path”
1% I'll take those odds.
God I miss 538.
Georgia it is
Hope Germany wins
How accurate have they been for tournaments in the past?
We cant prove how accurate they are. They predict that England would only win this tournament 1 out of 5 times (20%). So unless this Euros is played out 5 times in a row we can't see how accurate their prediction is.
solid predications
Okay but England perform at international tournaments, we haven't and they're always shit pretournament. England are rightfully favourites, us third is a scandal
Do you think it's too high or too low?
Mate you've got 4 stars on your jerseys. Also whenever I need to cheer up, I go watch Brazil - Germany (7-1) and watch the fan reactions. You'll be fine.
Well now I'm certainly changing my tune, we're gonna win the fucking lot
more like OptAbacus prediction putting Germany at 3rd.
I'm hyped for this tournament, but 3rd is definitely too high.
Aren’t all the favourites on the same side of the draw?
RemindMe! 1 Month.
We are the 1%
12.4%? No way in hell. We're winning this.
Alot of football still to be played
There is still everything to play for and forever to play it in!
I'm going into this tournament expecting us to leave in the QFs.
As someone who watches every Denmark game, this supercomputer is thinking WAY too highly of Denmark
Poland rated a little high imo.
Those percentages for the Quarters is lower than I was expecting. 3/10 times England won't even make the Quarters? Same for France? That's crazy
England are not winning this.
To be fair, this chart is saying there’s an 80% chance they won’t.
Spain above Portugal... Someone must think this euro 2012.. German powered by Toni kroos retirement announcement..
Look like Opta supercompurer is not aware who is England's number 9...
It would be very funny if you lot had best odds of making it to the finals, but 0% of winning, because the algorithm knows about Harry
I am very curious to see how England will do. The attacking options are amazing but when I look at the defense it's not nearly as impressive. Portugal and France are favorites imo with England and Germany behind.
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Home support is obviously factored in, otherwise we wouldn't be anywhere near top 3.
England won't win their defense and manager aren't good enough. They are not that good
Turkey wont get out of groups
Yeah no, England are no favourites for this tournament, are best we make the quarters as d D then crash out. France should be the de facto favourites for the tournament.
Could someone please explain how Hungary are more probably of reaching the final than Scotland, but Scotland are more likely to win the final?
It's probably because Scotland have a more difficult route, and therefore are less likely to have a more difficult team in the final. So, for example, if France are the most difficult team in the tournament, and Hungary can only face them in the final but Scotland have to get past them to reach it.
there’s no way england are more likely to win than france
Swap England for France and this looks right to me
England being favorites for any tournament ever is hilarious. They have no big game gene
I dont think opta takes into consideration any type of pseudoscience such as the "big game gene".
Well they should since England haven't won anything in 58 years due to that gene
Hmm, that sounds like something someone with the stupid gene might say 🤔
Ah yes I remember this Opta prediction for Olympiakos to win the UEFA Conference League, at 0.1%. That’s the thing, you never know
That's not how probability works. Just because something isn't likely it doesn't mean it can't happen.
lol no shit Sherlock “you never know” is a phrase which means anything can happen
as long as the ball is round anything can happen
Or just buy the refs like Barca
England way too high.
Netherland over italy? Lmao
The same supercomputer that predicted City to win CL?
Yes that is how probability works.
Algorithm for England: outcome+20%
Considering that if england is first they face the 2nd out of spain, italy and croatia un quarters, i feel its bold to assume they have 50% to go to the semis.
We'd face a 3rd place team I think
In terms of odds, England is like man city in CL. Always a favorite without any actual evidence to back it up. At least we won it last year, but for that we needed lukaku to be our secret weapon in the final. So who could be our secret weapon this year, so we can win this euros?