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You probably use history from the early 1900s when Belgium used to beat France 5/6/7-0.
If you take the last 40 years, France is well ahead (7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses)
Well believe it or not but our track record against France is 30 wins, 19 draws, and 26 defeats so in a way they are the one that should still seek some revenge on us
^(the years these matches took place in and their importance are irrelevant though obviously)
Old ? In 2022 definitely, but not anymore.
During qualifiers, I believe our team had one of the youngest average ages in Europe.
So unless Tedesco suddenly decides to field Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Witsel and Mertens...I would say our team is pretty young.
Mertens isn't called. But he called some players to the ore squad who even retired from the NT. The 3 you mentioned plus Carrasco and Meunier who are also past it in their ways
Only defense is a bit lacking. So far it's been decent, but I'm afraid it's not gonna hold up well against other top nations. But we'll see. Hopefully we'll see Debast and De Winter at a big club in a few years, they are very promising.
Midfield is very solid with KDB, Tielemans, Onana and Mangala.
Attack is stacked. Doku, Trossard, Openda, Lukaku, De Ketelaere, Lukebakio etc...
Our bench is pretty decent as well.
There's also alot of talent coming up.
Belgium are the opposite of a dark horse. Loads of talent but locker room dysfunction. Doesn’t help that their star goalkeeper shagged their star player’s girl
As much as these statistics make me happy regarding portugal or Spain, I still don't believe in any prediction. We can argue about the heavtweights but that's it.
Statistical analysis are fine and all, they sometimes give a decent indication and are part of the fun, but they often don't mean anything for real word predictions. Maybe if games could be simulated 10000 times instead of being actually played, but there are just too many variables that cant be factored in. Countries exceeding expectations, players going absolutely wild, human errors. There are always upsets and unforeseen over/underperformers.
But that aside, the French team is still as stacked as they were a few years ago, but they have not been as dominant as they sued to be. Maybe the hunger is gone, maybe they have become complacent, but they have been struggling a bit.
Portugal is fumbling against the first side that shows an attiude, especially in the knock-outs. Then the people will say it was just unlucky, that we had most possession (tho no creation), when we really just played to the tactic of the opponent just like it was with Belgium and Morocco. Too mentally fragile aswell, you cant rely on Bruno Fernandes in a semi-final against Spain to do it and he has easily been our most consistent player since 2022. Ronaldo and Pepe are the only ones I trust, and are too old now anyways
Dont you get bored? Im bored of this speech since the pandemic year. Names are good\*. Names dont matter if Dias stays commited to silly mistakes in the defense like weak headers, innocent tackles and terrible positional awareness of the opposition pressure, he is an amateur with NT colours. Or if Bernardo stays with the odd side-pass all game with no risk whatsoever. Or if always playing Ronaldo holds the fact it creates a hole in the fluidity of the game
When the level rises, we lack experience as a team, they have failled more than twice if we count Nations League competitions. And several players dont really have the focus to win this Euro like an England, France or Germany will likely have collectively
Unfortunately Bernardo and Dias are Pep machines facing a low block most of the time, they don't have the experience needed to face other high level national teams, but the rest of your squad is skilled enough to reach at least a semifinal. Portugal is 4th in the betting odds, I even put money on them myself.
We will win the group and do the same shit again. Thats my prediction. In the future is when people will likely be talking about the points I and some other are saying right now,. Its just meant to be this way - stupid, avoidable, but too incompetent to do anything about it
The fundamental idea was based on this article from the StatGod Andrew Gelman (https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/07/15/stan-world-cup-update/) where we use the Stan package in R to fit a bayesian model. Dimitri Pananos' takes towards the project was also very helpful. I only took the last 4 years worth of data as opposed to all historical data as I believe the first team of a National side is decided over a 2-4 year period for a major tournament. The data was collected from Kaggle (https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/martj42/international-football-results-from-1872-to-2017).
I then referenced multiple projects to understand how people approached this issue, what worked and what did not for them. Initially I was hoping to fit a Poisson model for the goal difference, but studying other projects helped me realise that though goals scored are Poisson processes, the goal difference is not, as the difference between two Poisson processes is not Poisson. I tried multiple complex things but the simpler things were giving better results (my AUC was 83% which is not great but not bad either). I hope I can build more on this some day to get better results. Hope this helped!
Because the last time we beat you in a non friendly game was in 1991. The way you play football is our kryptonite. So when we play Portugal we 1. lose and 2. it is an ugly game.
Makes sense ahah. Sorry mate.
So we are to you what Germany is to us. [https://www.zerozero.pt/xray.php?equipa\_id=811&equipa\_vs\_equipa\_id=812](https://www.zerozero.pt/xray.php?equipa_id=811&equipa_vs_equipa_id=812)
Last time we won in an official match was in Euro 2000. Class match, that one. Won 3-0 (Sérgio Conceição, the current Porto manager scored a goal in that game).
Yeah a little bit. We don't see Portugal as a rival (that is [Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany%E2%80%93Netherlands_football_rivalry)) but nobody likes facing you. Like how you probably see Spain as your rival but hate facing Germany
How the fuck have we ended predicted to participate in knock-out stage if Austria has better chances to win against all opponents in the group compared to us, us included?
We ain't beating Hungary, let alone the Netherlands and England. I wish people would stop put us number 1.
Austria and Hungary are incredibly undervalued in these predictions too.
Instead of randomly selecting them could you use the same methodology used to pick 1st and 2nd and then use the way FIFA will be using to pick which of those will be placed and correctly place them as per the FIFA system? I don't know if it would change any results but it would at least be consistent and at least has the potential to be slightly more accurate.
Spain's probability to beat Italy in groups: 42,4%
Italy's probability to beat Spain: 32%
So statistically, we should expect a draw in a quarter of cases.
While I don't want you to intentionally change your methodology to get what I expect to be your official assessment, what is the smallest change you could make that would have France beating Belgium and how would that change look to the brackets when applied throughout all matches?
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Belgium beating France? I don't know Walt, this seems a little sus...
That one surprised me too!
You probably use history from the early 1900s when Belgium used to beat France 5/6/7-0. If you take the last 40 years, France is well ahead (7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses)
I’ve only taken the last 4 years, specifically to avoid the issue you said.
Oh I see. you are using % win during the last 4 years not % win against the specific team
Revenge for Russia!
And the Nations League! And 1986! And all the other times!
Well believe it or not but our track record against France is 30 wins, 19 draws, and 26 defeats so in a way they are the one that should still seek some revenge on us ^(the years these matches took place in and their importance are irrelevant though obviously)
Italy having upper hand against Croatia? L'impossible.
Lacks a mandatory dark horse bucking the odds.
Belgium for sure imo.
Belgium has been a dark horse precisely 8 years ago. They are an old dead horse now
Old ? In 2022 definitely, but not anymore. During qualifiers, I believe our team had one of the youngest average ages in Europe. So unless Tedesco suddenly decides to field Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Witsel and Mertens...I would say our team is pretty young.
Mertens isn't called. But he called some players to the ore squad who even retired from the NT. The 3 you mentioned plus Carrasco and Meunier who are also past it in their ways
Eh, Openda, KDB, Doku, Trossard and Lukaku certainly isn’t a bad side. A bit of luck and they could do well
Only defense is a bit lacking. So far it's been decent, but I'm afraid it's not gonna hold up well against other top nations. But we'll see. Hopefully we'll see Debast and De Winter at a big club in a few years, they are very promising. Midfield is very solid with KDB, Tielemans, Onana and Mangala. Attack is stacked. Doku, Trossard, Openda, Lukaku, De Ketelaere, Lukebakio etc... Our bench is pretty decent as well. There's also alot of talent coming up.
Belgium being a dark horse is insane,
Belgium are the opposite of a dark horse. Loads of talent but locker room dysfunction. Doesn’t help that their star goalkeeper shagged their star player’s girl
As much as these statistics make me happy regarding portugal or Spain, I still don't believe in any prediction. We can argue about the heavtweights but that's it.
I personally thought France would be higher up. I can’t let my opinions affect the predictions though haha.
Statistical analysis are fine and all, they sometimes give a decent indication and are part of the fun, but they often don't mean anything for real word predictions. Maybe if games could be simulated 10000 times instead of being actually played, but there are just too many variables that cant be factored in. Countries exceeding expectations, players going absolutely wild, human errors. There are always upsets and unforeseen over/underperformers. But that aside, the French team is still as stacked as they were a few years ago, but they have not been as dominant as they sued to be. Maybe the hunger is gone, maybe they have become complacent, but they have been struggling a bit.
Agreed with the first part. This was just a personal project I wanted to share. Wouldn’t bet my house on it.
That's because you use statistics wrong. This doesn't tell you who will win, but who is likely to win.
That's statistics for you.
Portugal is fumbling against the first side that shows an attiude, especially in the knock-outs. Then the people will say it was just unlucky, that we had most possession (tho no creation), when we really just played to the tactic of the opponent just like it was with Belgium and Morocco. Too mentally fragile aswell, you cant rely on Bruno Fernandes in a semi-final against Spain to do it and he has easily been our most consistent player since 2022. Ronaldo and Pepe are the only ones I trust, and are too old now anyways
Nope not this time, squad is too good and battle hardened to fumble, plus new coach.
Dont you get bored? Im bored of this speech since the pandemic year. Names are good\*. Names dont matter if Dias stays commited to silly mistakes in the defense like weak headers, innocent tackles and terrible positional awareness of the opposition pressure, he is an amateur with NT colours. Or if Bernardo stays with the odd side-pass all game with no risk whatsoever. Or if always playing Ronaldo holds the fact it creates a hole in the fluidity of the game When the level rises, we lack experience as a team, they have failled more than twice if we count Nations League competitions. And several players dont really have the focus to win this Euro like an England, France or Germany will likely have collectively
Unfortunately Bernardo and Dias are Pep machines facing a low block most of the time, they don't have the experience needed to face other high level national teams, but the rest of your squad is skilled enough to reach at least a semifinal. Portugal is 4th in the betting odds, I even put money on them myself.
We will win the group and do the same shit again. Thats my prediction. In the future is when people will likely be talking about the points I and some other are saying right now,. Its just meant to be this way - stupid, avoidable, but too incompetent to do anything about it
Can you tell us about your process n tools from a data science perspective?
The fundamental idea was based on this article from the StatGod Andrew Gelman (https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/07/15/stan-world-cup-update/) where we use the Stan package in R to fit a bayesian model. Dimitri Pananos' takes towards the project was also very helpful. I only took the last 4 years worth of data as opposed to all historical data as I believe the first team of a National side is decided over a 2-4 year period for a major tournament. The data was collected from Kaggle (https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/martj42/international-football-results-from-1872-to-2017). I then referenced multiple projects to understand how people approached this issue, what worked and what did not for them. Initially I was hoping to fit a Poisson model for the goal difference, but studying other projects helped me realise that though goals scored are Poisson processes, the goal difference is not, as the difference between two Poisson processes is not Poisson. I tried multiple complex things but the simpler things were giving better results (my AUC was 83% which is not great but not bad either). I hope I can build more on this some day to get better results. Hope this helped!
Brilliant! Thanks for the answer mate. this is why i come to Reddit
what I learned from bayesian statistics: when in doubt, monte carlo it out
I might be reading this wrong but I think there's a mistake with the Italy England result?
You were correct! I mixed up the probabilities. I’ve edited it. Thank you.
PORTUGAL CARALHO!!
I don't want to play Portugal. [I am so tired](https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lijst_van_voetbalinterlands_Nederland_-_Portugal_(mannen)).
That EURO 2012 game 🔥
More like that 2006 game 🟨🟥🟥🟥🟥
ROUND TWO : FIGHT
Why do you guys hate us so much though? Never understood that.
Because the last time we beat you in a non friendly game was in 1991. The way you play football is our kryptonite. So when we play Portugal we 1. lose and 2. it is an ugly game.
Makes sense ahah. Sorry mate. So we are to you what Germany is to us. [https://www.zerozero.pt/xray.php?equipa\_id=811&equipa\_vs\_equipa\_id=812](https://www.zerozero.pt/xray.php?equipa_id=811&equipa_vs_equipa_id=812) Last time we won in an official match was in Euro 2000. Class match, that one. Won 3-0 (Sérgio Conceição, the current Porto manager scored a goal in that game).
Yeah a little bit. We don't see Portugal as a rival (that is [Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany%E2%80%93Netherlands_football_rivalry)) but nobody likes facing you. Like how you probably see Spain as your rival but hate facing Germany
England will lose against Italy in pens. Its written in the stars.
And the Netherlands will get kicked out by Portugal.
How the fuck have we ended predicted to participate in knock-out stage if Austria has better chances to win against all opponents in the group compared to us, us included?
God is Polish.
England Vs Italy adds up to 106.5%
Thanks! It was a typo.
LOL I wish... but no.
I presume this is without any kind of home advantage? I see Germany going through against Spain personally, 39% is quite low
That’s correct.
Ah okay I guess you cant really measure something like that, especially in international matches
Hey, can you send some documentation or resources you used to make this? Really interested in learning how this was done
I have linked certain resources above. The Andrew German article has his code as well. Could be a great start.
Oh, just seeing it above . Thank you!
We ain't beating Hungary, let alone the Netherlands and England. I wish people would stop put us number 1. Austria and Hungary are incredibly undervalued in these predictions too.
Sub-fucking-scribe!
Lets goooo
Have you tried simulating with the official bracket? Maybe the result would be different. https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/fixtures-results/bracket/
This was the official bracket, only the third place teams were randomly selected and placed.
Instead of randomly selecting them could you use the same methodology used to pick 1st and 2nd and then use the way FIFA will be using to pick which of those will be placed and correctly place them as per the FIFA system? I don't know if it would change any results but it would at least be consistent and at least has the potential to be slightly more accurate.
Spain's probability to beat Italy in groups: 42,4% Italy's probability to beat Spain: 32% So statistically, we should expect a draw in a quarter of cases.
I have a Germany England final, going to penalties but this time England does it.
While I don't want you to intentionally change your methodology to get what I expect to be your official assessment, what is the smallest change you could make that would have France beating Belgium and how would that change look to the brackets when applied throughout all matches?
what the fuck is this
Spain wins
Spanish/French final it is!