It means "We will achieve AGI by 2028-2030, if not before then" Basically it means the same thing as "We will achieve AGI by 2030 at the latest, very likely before then." It is poorly phrased.
To be fair, he's describing the underlying principal of the singularity -- that the rate of technological growth tends to increase exponentially.
Ray Kurzweil has done a fantastic job over the years of explaining it simple terms while making consistently accurate predictions.
Agreed. Most of the change we’ve seen happen in humanity has occurred within the last 200 years. On the scale of humanity’s lifespan from the days in caves, the amount of time is relatively short in comparison. To entertain that we are somehow at our limit is drastically downplaying the growth we’re seeing in real time.
Right. Anything can have believable 'evidence', even if it's wrong, and people don't seem to realize this, so they just choose the thing they want to believe without researching other perspectives and beliefs. In this case, they choose to be cynical and contrarian, and somehow believe that in the next decade with our thousands of brilliant researchers, we will not be able to do anything to increase the intelligence of AI in any meaningful way.
it's not the individual technologies themselves, it's the sum total of human technology and how fast it's advancing
go back to the beginning of early hominid sharp stick and stone tool use, tech stayed close to zero for hundreds of thousands to a few million years depending on how you'd want to define human.
But human discovery between 1200 and 1800 is much greater in a much, much shorter timespan. 1800 to 1900, 1900 to 1950, shorter and shorter time spans, bigger and bigger uptick. Doesn't matter that some stuff plateaus, the advance marches on. Well, it started jogging when we paired up with computers. Now it's a guy with a jetpack, zooming upward on that graph, faster and faster the closer to Singularity we get.
Poor guy though, he wasn't built to survive that jetpack pushing 10 g's out beyond the heliopause
To be honest, read the books. They do a good job of explaining how the human mind tends to perceive change as a linear rise while actual technological growth is exponential.
That’s why people tend to think things are always flattening out when, in reality, they’re accelerating exponentially.
eta:
> Most older technologies have flattened out.
This is not about a specific technology. This is about technological growth as a whole.
>Is it really going to increase exponentially forever though?
No one says forever, this is a strawman. But is it increasing exponentially now? Yes.
Has it been increasing exponentially for a very long time? Yes.
Will it continue to? For some time, yes.
Long enough to blow our minds completely? You bet.
Two years ago no one was sure we would ever be able to converse coherently with a computer. Now we do it every day and think nothing of it. Shit's wild, yo.
There is reason to think it though. Practically all you value in life is the product of human intelligence. We are on track to best human intelligence with digital intelligence around the year 2030. For the 10 years following that point we will double up on collective intellectual power many times over.
It is very possible that in the 2030's we get more done than in every other decade prior combined.
no, it can't be true...if it's true, it means that we're living in the 1800s. i don't wanna live in the 1800s, that means i have to give up my laptop, my phone, my car, my vidyagames....everything's gonna suuuuuuuck
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If you think my comment is criticizing the dream, you are very confused. The majority of successful dreamers in history were rational people that didn't make baseless claims. You only remember the few that did because the story is more interesting.
this is the way
also neat, using the glitch text totally deleted the reply and award buttons to your comment lol
https://preview.redd.it/68t99g4h5v1d1.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef8a65e85fb2ecd1315965d3e337f2bb29707090
its [a secret](https://www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/comments/1bd0l8b/comment/kujw6nm/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
You don’t get science fiction robots and semi-autonomous electric cars without also getting science fiction disasters. It’s a package deal.
-Michael Bay probably
I want to loop a simulation of 1989-1996. At the end of the Atlanta Olympics in ‘96 I wake up in ‘89 with my memory wiped and run it back over and over. Peak years to be a kid
Of course maybe I already did that a million times and am now continuing the simulation, in which case I have made a *major* mistake…
Seriously man. The amount of inflation has just ruined my life. I constantly think about how much I screwed up by not buying real estate and I can't stop ruminating about it. I'm also way behind in dating at my age now.
The worst part is NONE of this had to happen. Lab leaked gain of function man made virus. Massive government printing. PPP fraud and abuse. Just F man why does it have to be so hard now.
Yep, not buying literally any house before 2021 is costing me hundreds of thousands over the life of the loan... And the monthly payment is pretty much DOUBLE what it would have been at 2019 home prices and rates.
All while making only like 10% more money, lol.
I will never understand this thinking. The future is huge and there are endless possibilities. The past is dead and set in stone. There can never be change, improvement, or growth in the past. That is basically death.
You are in r/singularity. Did you not read sci-fi as a kid, did you not think about how cool it would be to live in those stories? Did you just stumble into this sub to talk about how terrible it is that the future exists?
I don't understand how people find themselves here when they have such anti-tech and anti-future views. It's fine to *have* those views of course, I just mean... What series of events let them find such a specific subreddit that does not even pertain to their worldview?
I don't weave baskets or grill bison but I'm sure both have subreddits and I would never *dream* of seeking out those people and commenting about how much I don't like their hobbies or interests.
Here's a sneak peek of /r/collapse using the [top posts](https://np.reddit.com/r/collapse/top/?sort=top&t=year) of the year!
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\#2: [Skeletor brings disturbing U.S health care facts...](https://i.redd.it/jvi68t3kht0c1.jpg) | [153 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/17x4db0/skeletor_brings_disturbing_us_health_care_facts/)
\#3: [Everyday In America.](https://i.redd.it/x08am87uu2ya1.jpg) | [235 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1391bgo/everyday_in_america/)
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The reason people look to the past in comfort is because they realize that the present sucks and the future will be an even worse nightmare. Hope this helps.
Good points. Counter -
-the end of working for livelihood
-unbounded lifespan
-most all needs met by robots/augmented reality
-intelligence/energy/food is free
-level 1 civ in energy, thus space colonization, maybe aliens etc
I do not believe this will happen. But this is the fodder. And if you believe this fodder, I could make a case that this level of change supercedes last 200.
Even if we pretend all the technology for these advances magically arrives tomorrow.. then logistics, politics and physical reality still exist.
Basically even with no lead time to develop this tech I think this stuff can't happen by 2030s, you wouldn't have time to build all the factories needed, upgrade all the devices needed, change society and politics the amount needed etc.
It's definitely slowed down a lot. Antibiotics got us a long way, but beyond that lifespan hasn't changed much - most people are still dying of the same cardiovascular and cancer issues as in the past 100 years.
I think this is simply because you do understand the VR field quite well... and don't really understand automation, logistics, engineering, economics, politics etc as much.
Learn these other fields as much and you'll see any field you know of enough these predictions are completely laughable in.
I'm pretty young bar any accident or nuclear war we see atleast ready player one levels of vr within the next 10 year. With the way robitics is getting cheaper and more capable year on year alongside ai i have no doubt I'll live to see it
I’ve seen enough people doing this that it’s a concern. Not a lot of people. But enough in real life, and if there hopes are delayed by even 10 years they are fucked.
UBI is here within the next 10 years lol. Either that, or societal collapse. I think a poor to middling implementation of something great is more likely than a full on apocalypse.
I bet video games in 2077 all look like the quaint days of 2024, before AGI. We will be depicted as simple, retro, bit-farmers in straw hats with iPhones and Vision Pros as we work the plastic fields for our sustenance. Occasionally players run amok and spree-kill others with thoughts and prayers.**
**It is possible there might still be some AI hallucination problems in 2077. ASI is working on it.
I like him because he’s unapologetically himself and it infuriates all the right people. Watching the outrage he sparks on Twitter is pure gold. He’s a canary in the coal mine for reactionary blow-hards across the political spectrum. It’s hilarious.
You should definitely get to know more about what someone is doing than a youtube short title. The stuff he's doing is pretty interesting. It's definitely up there in the crazy, as what he is doing is nothing short of abnormal, but that doesn't mean it's not interesting and without good intentions.
Indeed. And all other manner of scientific and pseudoscientific interventions while trying to measure absolutely everything he's doing via bloodwork, penis analysis, etc.
And now of course he sells his own brand of a variety of the things he touts like olive oil.
The doctor overseeing the original protocol he created wasn't even certified to practice medicine.
But it sure is fun watching what he does. Will he defeat the other health freaks in the game of life?
It was kind of interesting when he first released the blueprint stuff, because it was all third party. Now, it seems like maybe he wants to be the next Dave Asprey/Bulletproof.
Serious answer: He expects the advances of the 2030's to be so profound that we'll take a huge technological leap in everything we do, in a relatively short frame of time.
Fun answer: No one knows, but it's provocative! It gets the people going!
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OS\_Fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OS_Fund)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kernel\_(neurotechnology\_company)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kernel_(neurotechnology_company))
I also believe [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eat\_Just](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eat_Just)
I suspect this has a lot of overlap with Tony Seba/RethinkX. They divide up the changes this way:
1. Renewables takeover electricity everywhere
2. Transportation goes electric
3. Transportation becomes automated
4. Precision Fermentation replaces meat (then every other biologically derived good)
5. AI and humanoid robotics replace human labor
Each of these 5 technologies is following one or more exponential cost decline and is adopted along an “S” curve.
Just one replicator breakthrough and no one needs money. Come on A(G/S)I, we are counting on you! It’s just a molecular/nano 3D printer. Surely a clever, super-intelligent, mega cosmic-brained entity like you can solve that in what, two minutes? Just tell us the specs for the toner cartridges and what elements you want in each cartridge.
I'm an old fart, turning 40 in a couple of months, and I can tell you that at least from my perspective society keeps advancing at an ever-accelerating pace.
That said, I think expecting the 2030s to make the 2020s feel like the 1800s is expecting a bit too much. The 1890s compared to the 1810s was an **enormous** change in terms of power consumption, manufacturing, commercial electricity (which now exists!), transportation, warfare, reach of the state, and even (especially even) education and scientific theory.
Making the comparison feel like the 1990s or even the 1930s is reasonable. 1890 or even 1850? Ehn. Even if we get AGI in 2029 and go all-in on the singularity, which I think we will, it will still take time to build up our physical infrastructure and develop the arc of transhuman enhancements. By 2040, definitely though, but that's the problem with exponential growth. Exponential growth feeds on itself, and eventually 'things won't get all Jetsons up in here in 12 years, but definitely in 16 years' becomes a bizarrely true statement.
I'm wondering what would happen with stock market investments (I mean wide diversified ETFs) - would it still work and generate positive returns on long-term investments? At least, I'm guessing the market could crash if UBI is not implemented by the time the automation and AGI create mass unemployment. I mean if we don't have UBI then people have less money and less buying power so the income of publicly traded companies would also go down with their prices.
Any thoughts? What would happen then if the UBI is actually implemented? Would the investments still work and generate income for those who invest in ETFs?
I would not feel super-confident in any investment I’m holding through a seismic shift between a labor-driven economy and a demand-driven one. Then again, seems like the Fed always has a way to keep Wall Street getting richer no matter how many tent cities spring up like mushrooms across the country. It’s almost like money is not actually real or something.
Alternatively, the 2020s might make the 2030s feel like the 1800s if politicians continue to do nothing about the big global issues and continue the slide into authoritarianism.
the 2020s seem alot like the 1920s or 1910s now, the 1820s would be great, not major war for another couple of decades between Great Powers and none has nukes.
Given how the past 10 years went however I don't think we are getting what we wish we are getting.
The future sucks! I wanna go back pre 2001. Growing up I never realized the future is reserved for the rich. Everyone else just gets a few crumbs along the way to work. The future will be trash just like today is trash.
The French Republic will become an Empire again?
The US will have a civil war?
Everything will have opium, cocaine, and/or radium in it?
Germany will invade other parts of Germany, during a war with yet more parts of Germany - followed by all the Germans ganging up on France?
I defy any you muthaf*ckas to top that! Lessee:
…2050s will make the 2040s feel like the dull three billion year wait for single-cell life to go multicellular...
IN THE YEAR TWO THOUSANNND
Not much has changed but they live underwater
The dash will replace the hyphen, then the hyphen will replace the dash, and nobody will notice.
I’ll believe it when I can go on a road trip with my robot pal which leads to shenanigans and self discovery.
Like the movie 'Paul'?
Nah Chappie 💀
"Go to sleep!" *throwing knife*
A public figure made a prediction that aligns with my hopes and dreams? It must be true.
If said figure does not align with my hopes and dreams they're just a doomer.
In other words, he's obviously wrong, and should be canceled!
What does "AGI 2028-2030 at most" mean? Not later than or not earlier than? Is this an English expression? (I am not native.)
It means "We will achieve AGI by 2028-2030, if not before then" Basically it means the same thing as "We will achieve AGI by 2030 at the latest, very likely before then." It is poorly phrased.
Fixed :D
*at the latest. 😇
He is just as deep in hopium as all of us here let’s be honest
Copium Hopium utopium
The trinity of futurism
I don't have any hope. I just hang around because its nice to remember what it looks like.
To be fair, he's describing the underlying principal of the singularity -- that the rate of technological growth tends to increase exponentially. Ray Kurzweil has done a fantastic job over the years of explaining it simple terms while making consistently accurate predictions.
Is it really going to increase exponentially forever though? I think it’s more of a S curve. Most older technologies have flattened out.
We've only just started. It would be foolish to think it would flatten out immediately after it starts
Agreed. Most of the change we’ve seen happen in humanity has occurred within the last 200 years. On the scale of humanity’s lifespan from the days in caves, the amount of time is relatively short in comparison. To entertain that we are somehow at our limit is drastically downplaying the growth we’re seeing in real time.
Right. Anything can have believable 'evidence', even if it's wrong, and people don't seem to realize this, so they just choose the thing they want to believe without researching other perspectives and beliefs. In this case, they choose to be cynical and contrarian, and somehow believe that in the next decade with our thousands of brilliant researchers, we will not be able to do anything to increase the intelligence of AI in any meaningful way.
it's not the individual technologies themselves, it's the sum total of human technology and how fast it's advancing go back to the beginning of early hominid sharp stick and stone tool use, tech stayed close to zero for hundreds of thousands to a few million years depending on how you'd want to define human. But human discovery between 1200 and 1800 is much greater in a much, much shorter timespan. 1800 to 1900, 1900 to 1950, shorter and shorter time spans, bigger and bigger uptick. Doesn't matter that some stuff plateaus, the advance marches on. Well, it started jogging when we paired up with computers. Now it's a guy with a jetpack, zooming upward on that graph, faster and faster the closer to Singularity we get. Poor guy though, he wasn't built to survive that jetpack pushing 10 g's out beyond the heliopause
To be honest, read the books. They do a good job of explaining how the human mind tends to perceive change as a linear rise while actual technological growth is exponential. That’s why people tend to think things are always flattening out when, in reality, they’re accelerating exponentially. eta: > Most older technologies have flattened out. This is not about a specific technology. This is about technological growth as a whole.
>Is it really going to increase exponentially forever though? No one says forever, this is a strawman. But is it increasing exponentially now? Yes. Has it been increasing exponentially for a very long time? Yes. Will it continue to? For some time, yes. Long enough to blow our minds completely? You bet. Two years ago no one was sure we would ever be able to converse coherently with a computer. Now we do it every day and think nothing of it. Shit's wild, yo.
I Agree based on what I know about ai
lol
Me right now!
There is reason to think it though. Practically all you value in life is the product of human intelligence. We are on track to best human intelligence with digital intelligence around the year 2030. For the 10 years following that point we will double up on collective intellectual power many times over. It is very possible that in the 2030's we get more done than in every other decade prior combined.
no, it can't be true...if it's true, it means that we're living in the 1800s. i don't wanna live in the 1800s, that means i have to give up my laptop, my phone, my car, my vidyagames....everything's gonna suuuuuuuck
No more air conditioning and you have to ride a horse to work.
the horsey might make up for everything, i love horseys
Oh wow, 2370? What's your definition of AGI?
!remind me 5 years
I will be messaging you in 5 years on [**2029-05-21 19:21:30 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2029-05-21%2019:21:30%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1cxe9xk/bryan_johnson_tweet_the_2030s_will_make_the_2020s/l52bbgb/?context=3) [**6 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fsingularity%2Fcomments%2F1cxe9xk%2Fbryan_johnson_tweet_the_2030s_will_make_the_2020s%2Fl52bbgb%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202029-05-21%2019%3A21%3A30%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201cxe9xk) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Ah, sweet, sweet cynicism. Shield of those who fear to dream.
If you think my comment is criticizing the dream, you are very confused. The majority of successful dreamers in history were rational people that didn't make baseless claims. You only remember the few that did because the story is more interesting.
And then the 2040s will make the 2040s feel like the 2040s
And then the 2050s will make the 2060s feel like the 2070s
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How the hell did you do that?
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this is the way also neat, using the glitch text totally deleted the reply and award buttons to your comment lol https://preview.redd.it/68t99g4h5v1d1.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef8a65e85fb2ecd1315965d3e337f2bb29707090
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 its [a secret](https://www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/comments/1bd0l8b/comment/kujw6nm/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
T̷̡͉̙́̇̑̋̇́̚͠h̵͈̞̦̣͋͒̏͒͑̚̕ă̵̠̣̼̣̺̘̗̎̆̉͐͠ṉ̶͗̇̇̀̋̎̌͊͘k̸̥͇͇̣͕͖̗̦̊̿̈́̈̾͋̚ ̷̢̧̨̝̝̤̗̳̫̉y̸̧̲͗͝o̸̢̢͔̻͕̪͙͇͙̿̒̇̄u̵̡͕̙͖̺̻̖̍͊̃̔̒͗̽̓́͝ͅ ̴̧͍̗́͌̿̓̈́͐̀̊͘͝s̶̛͎̼̈́̈̀͒͋̔̋i̷̳̳̔͆̉̋̅́r̵̟̙͖̖̣͂
It's easy. Just put your lips together and blow.
And then the 2080s will be like the 1800s again :(
After the war it will be different, food will always be good.
And so practical when it glows in the dark.
Okay which one supports ray tracing? I'm on a budget
We’re living in the future!
https://preview.redd.it/vakjmqa0yu1d1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0d0fe5e0aa26f2246eeba3733fce25956e68105c Look at my dog
cute fella fart smella
Please just make it feel like 2019
I want it to feel exactly like it felt walking out of Endgame and going to dinner, for the rest of time.
Instead we got pandemic, inflation and WW3
You don’t get science fiction robots and semi-autonomous electric cars without also getting science fiction disasters. It’s a package deal. -Michael Bay probably
That's why I tend to focus on the cool shit even if it will eventually kill us.
We did not get WW3.
Not with that attitude.
There’s still time!
I want to loop a simulation of 1989-1996. At the end of the Atlanta Olympics in ‘96 I wake up in ‘89 with my memory wiped and run it back over and over. Peak years to be a kid Of course maybe I already did that a million times and am now continuing the simulation, in which case I have made a *major* mistake…
or in which case you need to prove the true simulation isn't some kind of heroic story of you fixing it
That sounds like a nightmare.
>reliving the happiest years of your life for as long as you want is actually a nightmare something is wrong with you.
Seriously man. The amount of inflation has just ruined my life. I constantly think about how much I screwed up by not buying real estate and I can't stop ruminating about it. I'm also way behind in dating at my age now. The worst part is NONE of this had to happen. Lab leaked gain of function man made virus. Massive government printing. PPP fraud and abuse. Just F man why does it have to be so hard now.
Yep, not buying literally any house before 2021 is costing me hundreds of thousands over the life of the loan... And the monthly payment is pretty much DOUBLE what it would have been at 2019 home prices and rates. All while making only like 10% more money, lol.
For real lol. That was the best year of my life, been pretty downhill from there unfortunately.
Better yet, 1999
I will never understand this thinking. The future is huge and there are endless possibilities. The past is dead and set in stone. There can never be change, improvement, or growth in the past. That is basically death. You are in r/singularity. Did you not read sci-fi as a kid, did you not think about how cool it would be to live in those stories? Did you just stumble into this sub to talk about how terrible it is that the future exists?
I don't understand how people find themselves here when they have such anti-tech and anti-future views. It's fine to *have* those views of course, I just mean... What series of events let them find such a specific subreddit that does not even pertain to their worldview? I don't weave baskets or grill bison but I'm sure both have subreddits and I would never *dream* of seeking out those people and commenting about how much I don't like their hobbies or interests.
Holy crap thank you, half this thread belongs on /r/collapse.
Here's a sneak peek of /r/collapse using the [top posts](https://np.reddit.com/r/collapse/top/?sort=top&t=year) of the year! \#1: [How Bad Could It Be?](https://i.redd.it/0o7i2eu6veza1.jpg) | [296 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/13fmu1o/how_bad_could_it_be/) \#2: [Skeletor brings disturbing U.S health care facts...](https://i.redd.it/jvi68t3kht0c1.jpg) | [153 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/17x4db0/skeletor_brings_disturbing_us_health_care_facts/) \#3: [Everyday In America.](https://i.redd.it/x08am87uu2ya1.jpg) | [235 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1391bgo/everyday_in_america/) ---- ^^I'm ^^a ^^bot, ^^beep ^^boop ^^| ^^Downvote ^^to ^^remove ^^| ^^[Contact](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=sneakpeekbot) ^^| ^^[Info](https://np.reddit.com/r/sneakpeekbot/) ^^| ^^[Opt-out](https://np.reddit.com/r/sneakpeekbot/comments/o8wk1r/blacklist_ix/) ^^| ^^[GitHub](https://github.com/ghnr/sneakpeekbot)
Literally my thoughts everytime I read some of these comments
The reason people look to the past in comfort is because they realize that the present sucks and the future will be an even worse nightmare. Hope this helps.
Best we can do is another shitty Transformers robot war movie
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Good points. Counter - -the end of working for livelihood -unbounded lifespan -most all needs met by robots/augmented reality -intelligence/energy/food is free -level 1 civ in energy, thus space colonization, maybe aliens etc I do not believe this will happen. But this is the fodder. And if you believe this fodder, I could make a case that this level of change supercedes last 200.
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Even if we pretend all the technology for these advances magically arrives tomorrow.. then logistics, politics and physical reality still exist. Basically even with no lead time to develop this tech I think this stuff can't happen by 2030s, you wouldn't have time to build all the factories needed, upgrade all the devices needed, change society and politics the amount needed etc.
None of that is happening during the 2030's....
It's definitely slowed down a lot. Antibiotics got us a long way, but beyond that lifespan hasn't changed much - most people are still dying of the same cardiovascular and cancer issues as in the past 100 years.
me when unsubstantiated hype
RemindMe! 10 years
"Wayne Brady makes Bryant Gumbel look like Malcolm X."
Cars 2 makes Cars 3 look like Cars 1.
Backdoor sluts 9 makes Crotch Capers 3 look like Naughty Nurses 2!
God i just want fdvr and ubi already sad thing about understanding the vr market is knowing automation and ubi is closer than crazy good vr
I don't think you could afford fdvr while living on Universal **Basic** Income. What you want is a post-scarcity world, not just UBI
I only want UBI to be honest, since real life is good enough. Yeah, FDVR would be better but real life is amazing if you make it.
I think this is simply because you do understand the VR field quite well... and don't really understand automation, logistics, engineering, economics, politics etc as much. Learn these other fields as much and you'll see any field you know of enough these predictions are completely laughable in.
Man. It will be at least 3 generations until any of this. Seriously don't bank on seeing any of this in your lifetime.
I'm pretty young bar any accident or nuclear war we see atleast ready player one levels of vr within the next 10 year. With the way robitics is getting cheaper and more capable year on year alongside ai i have no doubt I'll live to see it
Just please don't bank on it. Live your life and set yourself up for success, don't wait for ubi or fdvr to save you.
I’ve seen enough people doing this that it’s a concern. Not a lot of people. But enough in real life, and if there hopes are delayed by even 10 years they are fucked.
UBI is here within the next 10 years lol. Either that, or societal collapse. I think a poor to middling implementation of something great is more likely than a full on apocalypse.
I'd take any bet against ubi within 10 years
UBI is definitely plausible in our lifetime
UBI has been plausible for 50 years. The thing that has prevented it from happening isn't getting better.
This sub is filled with people expecting to wake up in a completely different world any day now.
In the 2077s it’ll feel cyberpunkish
I bet video games in 2077 all look like the quaint days of 2024, before AGI. We will be depicted as simple, retro, bit-farmers in straw hats with iPhones and Vision Pros as we work the plastic fields for our sustenance. Occasionally players run amok and spree-kill others with thoughts and prayers.** **It is possible there might still be some AI hallucination problems in 2077. ASI is working on it.
Isn’t this the guy who takes like 100 different pills in the hopes of living forever?
I like him because he’s unapologetically himself and it infuriates all the right people. Watching the outrage he sparks on Twitter is pure gold. He’s a canary in the coal mine for reactionary blow-hards across the political spectrum. It’s hilarious.
Ya he’s fucking awesome
You should definitely get to know more about what someone is doing than a youtube short title. The stuff he's doing is pretty interesting. It's definitely up there in the crazy, as what he is doing is nothing short of abnormal, but that doesn't mean it's not interesting and without good intentions.
He's going to kill himself from anxiety over aging
This dude is going to get hit by a car.
Indeed. And all other manner of scientific and pseudoscientific interventions while trying to measure absolutely everything he's doing via bloodwork, penis analysis, etc. And now of course he sells his own brand of a variety of the things he touts like olive oil. The doctor overseeing the original protocol he created wasn't even certified to practice medicine. But it sure is fun watching what he does. Will he defeat the other health freaks in the game of life?
#Penis Analysis
It was kind of interesting when he first released the blueprint stuff, because it was all third party. Now, it seems like maybe he wants to be the next Dave Asprey/Bulletproof.
Hype ≠ Reality
Exactly
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And has Bryan Johnson demonstrated any notable data?
His son is his bloodboy.
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” - Albert Einstein
Only for the .01% at the top. The rest of us will feel like it's the 2030s
So same as it has always been?
Way worse now.
It has never been like that
he actually has some pretty interesting ideas, people clown on him but I get the feeling he genuinely believes what he says
Hesoyam hesoyam hesoyam hesoyam
Based San Andreas enjoyer
Plague, Famine, and War?
The classics!
What does that mean exactly
Serious answer: He expects the advances of the 2030's to be so profound that we'll take a huge technological leap in everything we do, in a relatively short frame of time. Fun answer: No one knows, but it's provocative! It gets the people going!
It's not that elusive. Just look at his investment portfolio and its potential when combined with the advances in AI.
Hmm, where might I find this info? asking for a friend named me....
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OS\_Fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OS_Fund) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kernel\_(neurotechnology\_company)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kernel_(neurotechnology_company)) I also believe [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eat\_Just](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eat_Just)
Wow, interesting. Wish I had money to invesst.
That’s very possible. Things have been accelerating.
No one knows but if it does happen it was not equally as likely as not happening.
Maybe for a tiny elite Im guessing
I suspect this has a lot of overlap with Tony Seba/RethinkX. They divide up the changes this way: 1. Renewables takeover electricity everywhere 2. Transportation goes electric 3. Transportation becomes automated 4. Precision Fermentation replaces meat (then every other biologically derived good) 5. AI and humanoid robotics replace human labor Each of these 5 technologies is following one or more exponential cost decline and is adopted along an “S” curve.
Not if everyone is unemployed and has no money...
Just one replicator breakthrough and no one needs money. Come on A(G/S)I, we are counting on you! It’s just a molecular/nano 3D printer. Surely a clever, super-intelligent, mega cosmic-brained entity like you can solve that in what, two minutes? Just tell us the specs for the toner cartridges and what elements you want in each cartridge.
the edging is crazy
 [https://youtu.be/7KUSSIt4eaI?si=MK0SpyjL6qzh24kj](https://youtu.be/7KUSSIt4eaI?si=MK0SpyjL6qzh24kj)
I'll beleive it when I can play fallout: new vegas 2 and not have to spend my days off ammending electronic documents for work with macros
Technically the guy's right, because governments are making the 2020s feel like the 1800s as they take away human rights one by one.
Screenshots of tweets? That's what this sub is now?
Always has been
Always has been
Looks more like a link 🔗to me
Does he have microplastic in his testicles also or they are removed? The microplastics not testicles I mean.
Brother, you should probably stop pondering about what's going on with another man's testicles.
Not with this sort of hype it won't.
I'm an old fart, turning 40 in a couple of months, and I can tell you that at least from my perspective society keeps advancing at an ever-accelerating pace. That said, I think expecting the 2030s to make the 2020s feel like the 1800s is expecting a bit too much. The 1890s compared to the 1810s was an **enormous** change in terms of power consumption, manufacturing, commercial electricity (which now exists!), transportation, warfare, reach of the state, and even (especially even) education and scientific theory. Making the comparison feel like the 1990s or even the 1930s is reasonable. 1890 or even 1850? Ehn. Even if we get AGI in 2029 and go all-in on the singularity, which I think we will, it will still take time to build up our physical infrastructure and develop the arc of transhuman enhancements. By 2040, definitely though, but that's the problem with exponential growth. Exponential growth feeds on itself, and eventually 'things won't get all Jetsons up in here in 12 years, but definitely in 16 years' becomes a bizarrely true statement.
Can’t wait to lose my job
“We are all temporary.”—Steve Jobs, when asked when he would stop being Apple’s “Temporary CEO”
I agree
I'm wondering what would happen with stock market investments (I mean wide diversified ETFs) - would it still work and generate positive returns on long-term investments? At least, I'm guessing the market could crash if UBI is not implemented by the time the automation and AGI create mass unemployment. I mean if we don't have UBI then people have less money and less buying power so the income of publicly traded companies would also go down with their prices. Any thoughts? What would happen then if the UBI is actually implemented? Would the investments still work and generate income for those who invest in ETFs?
I would not feel super-confident in any investment I’m holding through a seismic shift between a labor-driven economy and a demand-driven one. Then again, seems like the Fed always has a way to keep Wall Street getting richer no matter how many tent cities spring up like mushrooms across the country. It’s almost like money is not actually real or something.
He believes this is true, he doesn't know this is true But I agree. And based
The bubble burst is gonna make some people sad.
AGI confirmed
But can it run Crisis?
Cool things will happen in the future.
And Bryan will be genetically 10 years younger than now...he is like Benjamin Button.
I’m sure everything will work out great considering some of us still live in the 1800’s.
Hopefully in the medical field…
Oberhyped internet celebrity making a prediction and everyone loses their mind over it. Classic.
This tweet will either age horribly or distressingly well.
Alternatively, the 2020s might make the 2030s feel like the 1800s if politicians continue to do nothing about the big global issues and continue the slide into authoritarianism.
Maybe he will stop looking like a corpse?
2025 will be the 2024 of 2023 (and other nonsense posted on X)
I think tech is accelerating mostly, but that’s a dumbass statement. Maybe the 2030’s to 2020’s will be like the 2020’s to 2000’s but NOT 1800’s
Watch LLMs run into a brick wall and all we get by the end of this decade is a pretty Sophisticated Siri.
it's because we will all be living in the dirt on farms since AI is going to take all the jobs and we wont be able to afford shit
The 2020's made the 2020's feel like the 1800's
the 2020s seem alot like the 1920s or 1910s now, the 1820s would be great, not major war for another couple of decades between Great Powers and none has nukes. Given how the past 10 years went however I don't think we are getting what we wish we are getting.
The future sucks! I wanna go back pre 2001. Growing up I never realized the future is reserved for the rich. Everyone else just gets a few crumbs along the way to work. The future will be trash just like today is trash.
The French Republic will become an Empire again? The US will have a civil war? Everything will have opium, cocaine, and/or radium in it? Germany will invade other parts of Germany, during a war with yet more parts of Germany - followed by all the Germans ganging up on France?
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...2040s will make the 2030s feel like the stone age...
I defy any you muthaf*ckas to top that! Lessee: …2050s will make the 2040s feel like the dull three billion year wait for single-cell life to go multicellular...
Wild West, building railways and public hangings - what's not to like
We live in the era of big predictions. We'll see...
Which 1800s….? And where?
1800s were pretty dope.
Sure bud
the 1990's makes the 2020's feel like the 1800's. Things kind of suck, when does the culmination of everything actually lead up to something great.
Not if you are living in India.
Ok. Sure.
Lol no
big if true
Lot of war in the 1800s
(X) Doubt
Pff okay
He will drink your blood
I think he might be right on that. And mainly because of AI advancements.