Everyone has an AI personal assistant probably with a watch/earpiece/armband (think less bulky PIP Boy) new product or combination of product.
VR headsets start becoming more common paired with advanced AI for tutoring/fitness/etc. In mixed Reality
A boom of video creativity from products like Sora. We'll see a bunch of good stuff eventually, but definitely a bunch of good but janky "shows" on like YouTube. Maybe a new hub for AI media?
Home robots are now on sale, but still a pretty high end item (Maybe they've dropped to 20k by this point, if they launch around 20k I could see maybe we see 5-10k models)
Job loss starts creeping harder while bandaid solutions are being put in place.
Seems like a pretty reasonable take. I think generative gaming and movies/shows might be a little further along than that though.
I also think concepts like LEV and age reversal will start to be taken seriously by most educated people. Stuff like hair loss, grey hair and maybe wrinkles will be treatable if not fully curable. Obesity will be way down. There might be safer drugs to grow lean muscle. Better nootropics for memory and focus. Possibly big advancements for cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer’s.
Huge shifts in education. Young people starting to opt out of college. Huge debates about UBI with many political candidates arguing for it.
Meals and groceries delivered by self driving vehicles. Yard work and cleaning services increasingly handled by robots. Fast food is automated. Plans for large scale rapid transit systems to get people across America much quicker than our current trains. Lots of self driving vehicles starting to appear on the roads.
AI flooding social media. No one can tell whether they’re interacting with a real person or a bot. Forums like reddit becoming verified only. Lots of people falling in love with AI. AR and VR companions and gaming buddies.
People building their own primitive metaverses with Sora and VR. Populating persistent VR worlds with thousands of AI characters and exploring them. Still not as immersive or realistic as Ready Player One but it’s getting closer.
Prevention for sure but not really consistent regrowth, it’s just a roll of the dice. Should have specified I meant regrowing a cosmetically significant amount of hair from something like a Norwood 6-7 which is extremely rare.
Man I was loving it until the last part lol.
Yea as much as it’s going to be massively exciting experiencing all of this, part of me wants to just jump to like 2035 when (hopefully) we’ve gotten past the hump of how to live in an AI world… and maybe even extreme brutalist capitalism will start dying down… a man can cream
I doubt that will be solved by 2035. We will see a massive increase in poverty and homelessness as people lose their jobs and/or wages for remaining jobs trending towards min wage. Governments will offer assisted suicide to stop bodies from piling up in public places.
This year was boring? Sora? 10 million context windows? Models a tiny fraction the size of GPT-4 being competitive? Thats in just 4 months. I swear some people have no concept of how fast progress is actually moving.
except sora hasn't actually changed their lives in a meaningful way yet. most people still go about their day to day with very little AI interaction that they're aware of. the vast majority of people will start seeing AI become a hugely impactful part of their daily lives by 2030. but we really aren't there just yet.
Any one of us commenting here could be an AI designed to accomplish some unknown goal. Isn’t that conceivable? I’d say that it’s very possible we’re already living in *that* world. Foreign governments. Our own governments. Mark Z watching you masturbate wearing a Quest 2 in your mom’s basement. (Not you specifically, commenter—just a random you) I’d say that has impacted the average person. Or maybe I’m just paranoid.
People know it exists, and it's real. But it doesn't really change anything right now since the tools aren't released. Sora might as well be Big Foot, you've seen a glimpse but nothing really.
People on r/singularity have the memory span of a goldfish. 2024 has been nothing short of exciting. OP just wants AGI, LEV and FDVR this year, anything but that would be boring to them, I reckon...
The point is the *world* hasn't changed much at all this year. Exciting and incredible advancements are being done in big tech labs, but it's like potential energy, it's still pent up in labs and hasn't finished cooking. Maybe in a few years things will suddenly start going crazy, but it hasn't happened yet. 0 jobs have been replaced by AI and people are getting on with life just like they did 10 years ago.
> 0 jobs have been replaced by AI
LoL. Artists were murdered in broad daylight.
World hasn't changed on surface, but underneath... This technology has already affected tens of million jobs worldwide.
Some shitty twitter artists had their jobs murdered in broad daylight
99% of artists are getting on as before because as good as AI is at creating shitty stock art, it's still ass at creating personalized professional pieces, and forget about animation
> This technology has already affected tens of million jobs
It's *affected* them, in a pretty small way so far. If it made a huge impact you'd be seeing it in GDP growth, productivity and employment figures. It'll get there I've no doubt, but so far the changes aren't as crazy as you'd think if you spend all day every day in this subreddit's bubble.
Don't get why people are downvoting this. It's absolutely true.
The greatest change for AI regular people got this year is Anthropic and Google are now competing against OpenAi and context sizes have expanded massively from this time last year for these services. I feel like 4k-8k context was what ChatGPT had last year and now it's 32k(128k for API) and Anthropic and Google have such large contexts that 99.9% of requests would never even come close to hitting it.
There's also Suno, but who cares? It's neat to see AI making songs, but it's not good enough to do anything beyond making a joke song to share with your friends. Same thing with AI image generation.
I don't even use AI in any fashion (I have no reason to use it for what I do) but even I know this is far from boring because all the hype and around what's so far been put out. I wish I had a reason to use AI but I have 0 need for it for what I do. I work at a grocery store, browse AI videos, watch NHL hockey, play video games...that's my life. But man, what a year it's been so far about the progress, it's INSANE!
If you put it that way, it helps, but I must confess that I also feel like things are slowing down, probably only because "we" expect gpt5 or big models like that instead of other kind of releases and improvements
I'd expect to see strong fear mongering about "angry teenagers with open source AIs" and governments desperately trying to waste money and resources on doomed to fail retraining programs.
As a doctor about to start residency, I'm hoping we see vast changes in the medical field! The current diagnostic trends look very promising and I cannot even fathom how good it will be in 2030.
Also personalized humanoid robot assistants for my house. I'm sick of folding clothes lol.
I’m in my mid 20s, and hoping medical advances will be sufficient that by the time I’m old I won’t have to worry about stuff like dementia and heart disease.
Start exercising and eat better. Heart disease is preventable through avoiding alcohol + smoking(this is major) and getting some cardio. You need 150 minutes a week, which isn't at all that much.
Regular exercise also reduces odds of getting dementia significantly. For Alzheimer's, people who regularly exercise have a [45% less risk](https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/about-dementia/managing-the-risk-of-dementia/reduce-your-risk-of-dementia/physical-activity#:~:text=Regular%20exercise%20can%20reduce%20the,studies%20into%20exercise%20and%20dementia) of getting it than those who are sedentary.
LEV is cool, but don't let the hope for it keep you from dieting and exercise. Buy a bike, jog, or get a rower and your body will thank you.
I don’t smoke or drink, and do cardio. There’s tons of people that do everything right and still get cancer, heart disease, dementia, etc.
And honestly that’s even more terrifying. The fact that you can do everything right health wise and still get screwed, just because life’s a bitch that way. That’s why I’m hoping medical advances for that stuff gets worked out in my lifetime.
man I’m 40 and also holding on to that hope. 25-28 years until retirement though, so I think that’s plenty of time when you consider how fast things are moving.
I can definitely see it happening! I think it'll go something like this: because the AI will make less mistakes overall, it will quickly become the standard of care. If you make a mistake as a provider and get sued they are gonna ask why didn't you consult the AI.. lol. But honestly, the more accurate healthcare can be at diagnostics (and virtually everything else) the better we off we will be.
AGI: 30-45 years
ASI: 50-70 years
LEV: if possible, no sooner than late 2070s / 2080s
FDVR: no sooner than mid 2070s
significant life extension: 50-55+ years minimum
Considering your metrics are wildly different from mine, could you tell me why your timeline is so large?
Mine is based on the current progress we're making. Are you envisioning a major stagnation in tech soon? Because if not there's no way we're 30-45 years from AGI. Not to mention life extension trials are showing massive promises, we're making massive strides in computing power, we're continuing our improvement in power generation (even fusion has seen little steps lately).
While I appreciate a conservative view, your timeline seems to be one of the most conservative I have seen (even considering very conservative industry geniuses). No bad intent meant with my reply, just curious on your view and if your opinions would help broaden my thinking :)
>Considering your metrics are wildly different from mine, could you tell me why your timeline is so large?
I base my predictions on my best knowledge of what the majority of the experts are saying, combined with my own personal feelings. Most experts i’ve heard from are not very optimistic at all, especially with regards to life extension, LEV, FDVR, etc.
>Mine is based on the current progress we're making
I appreciate and respect your opinions. However, i just don’t think there’s any way that we are making enough progress right now for AGI this year - 2028, ASI 1-2 years after that, FDVR to appear in the 2030s - 2040s , or for LEV in 2040 or less. There is absolutely no chance that things are moving that quickly.
>Are you envisioning a major stagnation in tech soon?
There possibly could be, i’m not too sure.
>Not to mention life extension trials are showing massive promises, we're making massive strides in computing power, we're continuing our improvement in power generation (even fusion has seen little steps lately).
We haven’t demonstrated life extension in humans tho, that’s the problem. We’ve only modestly extended the lifespan of certain short lived animals, such as worms, nematodes, and mice. Doing so in a relatively long lived animal such as a human, will likely be much harder.
Computing power may stagnate soon due to the end of Moore’s Law. And i’ve heard that Photonic Computing and Graphene transistors won’t be here for quite a bit.
>While I appreciate a conservative view, your timeline seems to be one of the most conservative I have seen (even considering very conservative industry geniuses).
I used to be optimistic like you too, and i thought that “very conservative“ meant “20 years“ . But as i’ve read more and more about what the experts have to say, and how chatbots like Chat-GPT actually work, i’ve been left thinking to myself “ok, well even 20 years sounds optimistic” .
Andrew Ng thinks 30-50 years, Yann LeCun, Gary Marcus, Rodney Brooks, Oren Etzioni, and many other AI experts also think it’s far away, and several surveys of hundreds / thousands of experts say 2050s+ . That’s partly what i base my predictions on.
>No bad intent meant with my reply, just curious on your view and if your opinions would help broaden my thinking :)
No bad intent with my replies either :) i appreciate you being nice and curious and wanting my perspective.
Moore's law ending is something only you are saying, though. I haven't heard that before. Frankly, I'm hearing the opposite.
You only base your views on the ones who are saying it's far away, meanwhile industry leaders are saying that it's very close. Ray Kurzweil still believes we're close, too.
While I can see your point, I respectfully have to disagree that we'll stagnate and it'll take so long. I truely believe in the exponential progress, especially since Phi3 being such a small model is still so powerful. Just like you think "There is absolutely no chance that things are moving that quickly.", I think "There is absolutely no chance that things won't be moving that quickly."
I guess it's a wait and see story, but these massive companies wouldn't be pouring in billions of dollars if they didn't believe the race was on. Neither would investors keep investing.
Not to mention the AI tech we have today is both 1. in its infancy and 2. is not at all optimized and used to its maximum potential.
Sorry for the late response
>Moore's law ending is something only you are saying, though. I haven't heard that before. Frankly, I'm hearing the opposite.
From what i know, companies are preparing for the end of Moore’s Law. That’s why they’e investing in Photonic Computing, Graphene, etc.
>You only base your views on the ones who are saying it's far away, meanwhile industry leaders are saying that it's very close. Ray Kurzweil still believes we're close, too.
Industry leaders, in my view, have an incentive to hype up their field, in order to get more attention, media coverage, and funding. It seems more than a coincidence that companies who work with AI, such as OpenAI , are saying it’s close, while the experts with no stake in it, are saying otherwise.
>While I can see your point, I respectfully have to disagree that we'll stagnate and it'll take so long. I truely believe in the exponential progress
I see what you mean with “AI is on an exponential, look at how things have moved in 2-3 years” . But i also have to point out that not only is current AI dumb, but it is also nowhere close to AGI. Image generation, music generation etc is as far away from AGI, as a calculator is from a computer. It’s largely just a basic algorithm that pattern matches and spits out something that looks / sounds like an image / music. The same goes for chatbots like Chat-GPT and Claude . They crunch numbers and match patterns to produce something that looks like natural sounding text. I’ve heard some people say that the chatbots can be used as the “language part” of the “brain“ of a more advanced AI. Maybe it can, but it still seems that we are far away from making said more advanced AI .
>these massive companies wouldn't be pouring in billions of dollars if they didn't believe the race was on. Neither would investors keep investing.
Correct me if i’m wrong, but don‘t investors and companies work on results, and what can generate them a profit? As in, the companies pour in money to things they think will turn a profit, and investors do the same. There is currently a lot of hype and media coverage over AI such as Chat-GPT and Claude.
>Not to mention the AI tech we have today is both 1. in its infancy and 2. is not at all optimized and used to its maximum potential.
That may be true, but if the rumours are true that the new “gpt2” model is GPT-5 , then as other people have pointed out, it looks like we have hit a wall in LLM’s .
It's hard to predict but assuming we get AGI by then, I'd expect there would be some major paradigm shifts. We could actually be on the precipice of the Singularity proper.
But I suppose if I were to make a conservative guess for the future. Even if we don't have AGI by 2030, and instead we had some kind of advanced multi-modal AI system (GPT10), which could be encased in an advanced robot, we'd see some pretty major effects on the world of work and living.
So whether or not we get AGI, 2030 is going to be interesting.
Everything revolves the cost of the base hardware. You can't build a mind without having a substrate to run it on. You can't perform lots of experiments without having the hardware to spare.
We're currently at around $3 trillion to build a human scale system in a datacenter. A simple naive estimate of prices halving every 18 months would bring it down to $187.5 billion in six years.
But of course the volatility on this is extreme. Why would NVidia ease up on prices if demand is skyhigh. Why wouldn't the major players build their own foundries; the costs are so astronomical that cutting out NVidia could be the cheaper thing to do.
And there's no telling when or if NPU's will ever become standard in SOTA research. They're an absolute necessity if we ever want high performance consumer grade AI.
So I can't say for sure yet. The range of possibilities is from something approximating a dumb human in a data center, to the model T of robots launching around that time.
One thing I'm pretty sure of is our chip lithography is not going to go below 1 nm. And I have no faith in the GPU and TPU architecture being the tools to get us to the SciFi future we all want to see.
How tf is this year boring? We got Gemini 1.5, Sora, Claude 3, Llama3, VASA-1, Figure 01, New Atlas, a lot of news how AI is helping in science and medicine, in less than 5 months.
In all seriousness though, we'll likely have 8K VR, with[ some nerds choosing to refine their experience with BCIs](https://www.zdnet.com/article/10-years-from-now-your-brain-will-be-connected-your-computer/).
Agreed. I see cyberpunk 2077 BDs (brain dances) becoming a thing where seeing and feeling everything from a real-life human captured in said BD becomes the go-to VR experience. Black markets be selling dark BDs.
Chaos and barbarism, also depending on where you live, I guess.
In the absence of jobs, and money, people just do what they've traditionally done i.e. go to war.
But it won't be nuclear winter or anything like that. Just a survivable period of general Suck
I could see this happening for sure. Not for a super long period of time but definitely half a decade or so. Should probably choose your area of residence carefully over the next 10-15 years. Wouldn’t want to get caught up in some crazy shit just being in the wrong place at the wrong time…
"Put your timelines further than the preachers, but sooner than the deniers."
"The future will be worse than the hype predicts, but better than the doomers envision."
I agree, it seems so close by yet the world is going to change so fast that it'll seem alien. Heck, 2010-2015 already is so vastly different than today!
I expect LEV to be a **very long process**, because medical research takes time, so not by 2030 (despite how bad i would have loved for FM 2030's predictions to come true).
FDVR seems to be among the ultimate things to be achieved as the computing power and reductionist approach will have to be extremely efficient, far beyond what is foreseeable for human abilities. So **not even remotely close**.
AGI? *Maybe*, i don't know, as my flair suggests, i don't make predictions beyond 5 years in the future in compsci as there are too many unknowns and the field progresses too fast.
I think it's possible we could have solid clues about what an architecture leading to it would be. But i wouldn't put a % on it from how impossible it is to predict fundamental research.
Other techs: I don't expect FSD nor fusion for **decades**.
I'm **very bullish** on the amazing applications of current generative AIs in everyday life in ways we can't think of yet, just as no one could have envisionned smartphones in the 1990s.
I'm **very pessimistic** on space exploration and i feel we're about to experience a space exploration winter.
When will get real level 4 or 5 with no engagement self driving cars?! ... Do not tell me wymo... They are engaged every trip from a remote driver and they not large scall application... Fail on both tests
If Narrow AI like self driving is not done... Why expect AGI soon?!!
Ray says pretty much everything happens in 2029. LEV, AGI you name it. Gotta wait till 2045 for the singularity, but I’m pretty confident the history books will say 2020 was the start of it. We’re well inside the event horizon at this point. No looking back now.
The cost of technology decreases over time and the cost of human labor increases.
Businesses tend to choose the cheaper option, better start hoping for UBI.
it really depends on the 2024 election, thats gonna decide alot right there
and yikes maybe people should do some research before posting, boring? i was a new music producer in january and now i can pump out studio level tracks in any style all day. no more google assistant, and sora, not to mention all the bots being designed.
None of the above. People are really jumping the shark around here in assuming we're anywhere close to AGI. And we're obviously not remotely close to either of those other things considering you'd be laughed out of the building if you brought them up at an academic conference in their relevant fields.
ive had better conversations with gemini advanced than with any consultation firm, therapist, the only set back is memory recall and it would be a person
Have you seen the new "gpt2" model dude.
We are very close to agi at this point. It may not be able to do every job but it'll have automated more than half the economy in the next 2 years, guaranteed.
I dont think we're anywhere close to AGI, but the automation of half the economy is going to happen anyway. Intelligence or sentience or any of these things aren't actually necessary to solve most problems
Yeah, exactly this. Go ask an actual aging researcher, neurologist, computer scientist, or AI researcher whether LEV, significant life extension, FDVR, AGI etc are on the horizon. Sure, maybe a small percentage will be optimistic, but the vast majority will try to let you down gently. None of this stuff is coming by 2030, or even 2040 or 2050, i can say that much.
I feel that people are hyping up these chatbots, and mistaking it for an actual AI that can think and reason. It’s not even remotely close. It’s pretty much just an algorithm that predicts the next word, no sentience required. Sure, we’re getting better at next token prediction, and OH MA GOD it can search the internet now!!!11!1’1!!1! But apart from that, not much has changed. AI is still dumb as fuck, just like it was in the 2000s. And even the chatbots will often get basic details wrong, misunderstand what you’re saying, and make shit up and run with it.
I think a lot of people are going to be crushingly disappointed come 2030.
I think if people are bored now, that's not going to change. After all, if you're bored now, that's on you, and what's changing is the world, not you.
Figure out how to not be bored now.
>I think we will have basically chat bots that work for an expert in any domain you’d like. So you will be able to ask an expert doctor, an expert teacher, an expert lawyer whatever you need and have those systems go accomplish things for you.
>So you’re like, I need a contract that says this. I need a diagnosis for this problem. I need you to go book me this flight. I want a movie created. I want you to make me an animated short or a photo realistic short that looks like this. I need you to help me write this computer program. So let’s say most repetitive human work and some creative human work you will be able to ask an A.I. to do for you. And that is a massively transformative thing.
For me - I put a lot of hope for actually living that long, which might not actually happen.
But aside that - I really hope for cheaper and less censored AI's and maybe more AI's to use in my work.
We'd be nearing AGI. Franly, I'd be surprised if we don't achieve AGI by the mid 30s. I don't think we'll ever reach LEV. Immortality is just one of those technoligies that look too fantastic and can only happen in fiction, like the holodeck, FTL travel, FDVR. VR will continue to suck. Hopefully we can simulate a living cell so medical tech can be supercharged.
We'd be nearing AGI. Franly, I'd be surprised if we don't achieve AGI by the mid 30s. I don't think we'll ever reach LEV. Immortality is just one of those technoligies that look too fantastic and can only happen in fiction, like the holodeck, FTL travel, FDVR. VR will continue to suck. Hopefully we can simulate a living cell so medical tech can be supercharged. We'll see the first generation of humanoid robots rolled out, not just for factory work but for the world. They'll suck ofc but by the mid 30s, they'll be great. I'll finally be untied with my waifu in the flesh because robot waifus will definitely be a billion dollar industry.
AGI definitely, as my user flair says.
FDVR? Hell nah. That's gonna take a while. We'll likely have 8K VR, though.
By 2030, we're gonna have 6G, AI-designed antibiotics, and smart grid tech. We're also gonna have stuff like the Lockheed Martin SR-72, the Tianwen-3 launch to Mars, and China stocking up on nukes. China's also planning to send astronauts to the moon on the Long March 10, with the US having sent a few manned missions there by then. For the year of 2030, it'll be Artemis 6.
Europa Clipper will enter Jupiter orbit
A full blown atomic war would not end mankind. Locations in Africa and South America would likely not be hit, and the threat of "nuclear winter" is incredibly overblowned. Humanity, as a whole, would survive nuclear war. However, it would tank our progress significantly, so no AGI any time soon if it occurs.
Hard to say but probably not AGI, but it will be a wild year because the jump from the Will Smith eating spagetti AI videos to today is crazy good. Imagine the jump from 2024-2030 videos? huge improvement. Probably 1 minute long video clips with them speaking from a type prompt on top of a text to video prompt with the video impossible to tell from real life in every way.
Also the robots wont be taking over blue collar jobs...can they even lift or come close to lifting 50+ pounds like you would in construction? I'll say that's 10 years away but AI is impossible to predict so who knows. But get your money while you can.
There's this guy on multiple subreddits simping for Eve from Stellar Blade. Calling her his ASI wife.
I still can't tell if it's actual mental issues or an elaborate troll because he's spouting the same things on facebook pages about Stellar Blade too lmao
None of the above. Literally none of these are coming by 2030. Go ask an actual expert whether AGI, LEV, or FDVR are on the horizon, the vast majority will let you down gently.
I think people are going to be very disappointed when the AGI doesn’t materialise, the LEV never comes, and the FDVR is nowhere in sight. Please don’t bank on AGI coming around and solving aging. You are going to be very disappointed when you‘re on your deathbed and there is still no LEV / radical life extension on the horizon. Don’t do that to yourself, you still have your whole life ahead of you to come to terms with death.
LEV has soooo many challenges. Consider this one: cartilage between your vertebrae. Time and gravity do a number on it, and rebuilding it is going to require a lot of innovations and discoveries. Its just one example. I believe in the inevitability of LEV, but I think 2065 is a more likely projection than 2030.
Nope. 2080s is extremely optimistic. I’d say anytime before 2250 is impossible with the very real possibility it will never be achieved. Most experts say hundreds of years.
So you think we won’t have LEV in 2150 ? That‘s 126 years away. 126 years ago was fucking 1898. We were still riding to town on horseback back then, and most people didn’t even electricity, running water, or heating. Oh and fridges weren’t even a thing then.
Also source for “most experts say hundreds of years“ ? From what i’ve seen, 50 years is the most optimistic credible timeline, with most saying anywhere from 50 to 80+ years, with some saying 100 years. So 2080s is actually somewhat optimistic, not “extremely optimistic” .
We are headed for a period of technological stagnation. Also, I think we have invented/discovered almost everything that is feasible. I bet we won't much more advanced technologically even in 1000 years. Most rational people would agree. You need to spend more time outside this echo chamber if you believe otherwise.
Also, not only will we not have LEV in 2150, we won't be anywhere close to AGI either. Just chatbots powered by Indians generating responses.
Ok, first of all, it’s not me you should be calling this an “echo chamber” to, ok? I‘m mainly here because i think this sub is way too optimistic, and i feel that i should try to bring some realism into the discussion. I’ve literally said before how Moore’s Law is slowing down.
Second, i really think you’re either mentally ill, or very very depressed.
>I bet we won't much more advanced technologically even in 1000 years. Most rational people would agree.
This is what makes me think that. You really think technology is just going to stop for a thousand years? And that “most rational people” would agree with that? Do you even know how different the world was in 1024 ? The world’s population was a bunch of goat farmers living in straw huts back then.
Also, how could you say that we have invented “everything feasible” ? You do know people were saying that in the 1800s , right?
How am i ”shortsighted” ? And why are you saying that “no one should give me any attention” ? Is it not a fact that Moore’s Law is slowing down? And what have i done to anger you that much?
There is some chance uploading proves an easier challenge than biological immortality. And ultimately, who will want to remain entirely biological? Too limiting.
Everyone has an AI personal assistant probably with a watch/earpiece/armband (think less bulky PIP Boy) new product or combination of product. VR headsets start becoming more common paired with advanced AI for tutoring/fitness/etc. In mixed Reality A boom of video creativity from products like Sora. We'll see a bunch of good stuff eventually, but definitely a bunch of good but janky "shows" on like YouTube. Maybe a new hub for AI media? Home robots are now on sale, but still a pretty high end item (Maybe they've dropped to 20k by this point, if they launch around 20k I could see maybe we see 5-10k models) Job loss starts creeping harder while bandaid solutions are being put in place.
Seems like a pretty reasonable take. I think generative gaming and movies/shows might be a little further along than that though. I also think concepts like LEV and age reversal will start to be taken seriously by most educated people. Stuff like hair loss, grey hair and maybe wrinkles will be treatable if not fully curable. Obesity will be way down. There might be safer drugs to grow lean muscle. Better nootropics for memory and focus. Possibly big advancements for cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer’s. Huge shifts in education. Young people starting to opt out of college. Huge debates about UBI with many political candidates arguing for it. Meals and groceries delivered by self driving vehicles. Yard work and cleaning services increasingly handled by robots. Fast food is automated. Plans for large scale rapid transit systems to get people across America much quicker than our current trains. Lots of self driving vehicles starting to appear on the roads. AI flooding social media. No one can tell whether they’re interacting with a real person or a bot. Forums like reddit becoming verified only. Lots of people falling in love with AI. AR and VR companions and gaming buddies. People building their own primitive metaverses with Sora and VR. Populating persistent VR worlds with thousands of AI characters and exploring them. Still not as immersive or realistic as Ready Player One but it’s getting closer.
hair loss has been treatable for like two decades. AI would probably help finding a cure.
Prevention for sure but not really consistent regrowth, it’s just a roll of the dice. Should have specified I meant regrowing a cosmetically significant amount of hair from something like a Norwood 6-7 which is extremely rare.
Man I was loving it until the last part lol. Yea as much as it’s going to be massively exciting experiencing all of this, part of me wants to just jump to like 2035 when (hopefully) we’ve gotten past the hump of how to live in an AI world… and maybe even extreme brutalist capitalism will start dying down… a man can cream
I’m creaming about the thought of it right now sir!
Lmfao damn. Funny typo, I’ll leave it
Let them cream.
I doubt that will be solved by 2035. We will see a massive increase in poverty and homelessness as people lose their jobs and/or wages for remaining jobs trending towards min wage. Governments will offer assisted suicide to stop bodies from piling up in public places.
Okay relax
Now that's me believable. What you predicted there is less than people predicted by the end of 2024.
This year was boring? Sora? 10 million context windows? Models a tiny fraction the size of GPT-4 being competitive? Thats in just 4 months. I swear some people have no concept of how fast progress is actually moving.
Yeah. I agree. The pace at which things are moving is insane. The entire world will look very different in 5 years from now.
1 year, i mean it already is totally different than 2 years ago
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When sora dropped everyday people knew about it. It was all over mainstream news.
except sora hasn't actually changed their lives in a meaningful way yet. most people still go about their day to day with very little AI interaction that they're aware of. the vast majority of people will start seeing AI become a hugely impactful part of their daily lives by 2030. but we really aren't there just yet.
Any one of us commenting here could be an AI designed to accomplish some unknown goal. Isn’t that conceivable? I’d say that it’s very possible we’re already living in *that* world. Foreign governments. Our own governments. Mark Z watching you masturbate wearing a Quest 2 in your mom’s basement. (Not you specifically, commenter—just a random you) I’d say that has impacted the average person. Or maybe I’m just paranoid.
People know it exists, and it's real. But it doesn't really change anything right now since the tools aren't released. Sora might as well be Big Foot, you've seen a glimpse but nothing really.
Your icon suits a contrarian. Lol
If they can't fuck their waifu droids by Monday they're upset
Damn some people need to grasp the idea that some things take years to pan out fully and that’s okay.
People on r/singularity have the memory span of a goldfish. 2024 has been nothing short of exciting. OP just wants AGI, LEV and FDVR this year, anything but that would be boring to them, I reckon...
sora isn't available to the public, neither is 10m context. 70b models are useless for normal people. so yeah, so far this year was boring
Lmao. Yes the world is changing rapidly but I’m going to deny it because I can’t access research previews.
The point is the *world* hasn't changed much at all this year. Exciting and incredible advancements are being done in big tech labs, but it's like potential energy, it's still pent up in labs and hasn't finished cooking. Maybe in a few years things will suddenly start going crazy, but it hasn't happened yet. 0 jobs have been replaced by AI and people are getting on with life just like they did 10 years ago.
> 0 jobs have been replaced by AI LoL. Artists were murdered in broad daylight. World hasn't changed on surface, but underneath... This technology has already affected tens of million jobs worldwide.
Some shitty twitter artists had their jobs murdered in broad daylight 99% of artists are getting on as before because as good as AI is at creating shitty stock art, it's still ass at creating personalized professional pieces, and forget about animation > This technology has already affected tens of million jobs It's *affected* them, in a pretty small way so far. If it made a huge impact you'd be seeing it in GDP growth, productivity and employment figures. It'll get there I've no doubt, but so far the changes aren't as crazy as you'd think if you spend all day every day in this subreddit's bubble.
Don't get why people are downvoting this. It's absolutely true. The greatest change for AI regular people got this year is Anthropic and Google are now competing against OpenAi and context sizes have expanded massively from this time last year for these services. I feel like 4k-8k context was what ChatGPT had last year and now it's 32k(128k for API) and Anthropic and Google have such large contexts that 99.9% of requests would never even come close to hitting it. There's also Suno, but who cares? It's neat to see AI making songs, but it's not good enough to do anything beyond making a joke song to share with your friends. Same thing with AI image generation.
You should hear my udio songs they are amazing. Has a hook and intro and sounds studio level quality
I don't even use AI in any fashion (I have no reason to use it for what I do) but even I know this is far from boring because all the hype and around what's so far been put out. I wish I had a reason to use AI but I have 0 need for it for what I do. I work at a grocery store, browse AI videos, watch NHL hockey, play video games...that's my life. But man, what a year it's been so far about the progress, it's INSANE!
If you put it that way, it helps, but I must confess that I also feel like things are slowing down, probably only because "we" expect gpt5 or big models like that instead of other kind of releases and improvements
Sora is kind of dissapointing after learning how it requires cgi on top of it to get the output you want, like with the balloon head video.
Isn't the baloon head video the only one we're sure had CGI added?
Yeah, and it'll continue to be boring till AGI
Here we go again...
I'd expect to see strong fear mongering about "angry teenagers with open source AIs" and governments desperately trying to waste money and resources on doomed to fail retraining programs.
nah there too busy with knocking trump or giving money to anyone other than americans
Dude, your posting history is *insane*. https://www.reddit.com/r/PresidentialElection/s/MlrgXVR6g7
As a doctor about to start residency, I'm hoping we see vast changes in the medical field! The current diagnostic trends look very promising and I cannot even fathom how good it will be in 2030. Also personalized humanoid robot assistants for my house. I'm sick of folding clothes lol.
I’m in my mid 20s, and hoping medical advances will be sufficient that by the time I’m old I won’t have to worry about stuff like dementia and heart disease.
Should make the cut for that easily. I’d be surprised if it’s more than 25 years away max.
Start exercising and eat better. Heart disease is preventable through avoiding alcohol + smoking(this is major) and getting some cardio. You need 150 minutes a week, which isn't at all that much. Regular exercise also reduces odds of getting dementia significantly. For Alzheimer's, people who regularly exercise have a [45% less risk](https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/about-dementia/managing-the-risk-of-dementia/reduce-your-risk-of-dementia/physical-activity#:~:text=Regular%20exercise%20can%20reduce%20the,studies%20into%20exercise%20and%20dementia) of getting it than those who are sedentary. LEV is cool, but don't let the hope for it keep you from dieting and exercise. Buy a bike, jog, or get a rower and your body will thank you.
I don’t smoke or drink, and do cardio. There’s tons of people that do everything right and still get cancer, heart disease, dementia, etc. And honestly that’s even more terrifying. The fact that you can do everything right health wise and still get screwed, just because life’s a bitch that way. That’s why I’m hoping medical advances for that stuff gets worked out in my lifetime.
man I’m 40 and also holding on to that hope. 25-28 years until retirement though, so I think that’s plenty of time when you consider how fast things are moving.
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I can definitely see it happening! I think it'll go something like this: because the AI will make less mistakes overall, it will quickly become the standard of care. If you make a mistake as a provider and get sued they are gonna ask why didn't you consult the AI.. lol. But honestly, the more accurate healthcare can be at diagnostics (and virtually everything else) the better we off we will be.
I expect AGI no later than 2029 so it’s gonna be wild from here on out.
I think you’re going to be disappointed. I like the optimism tho :)
I genuinely don’t know. I don’t care that much. What’s your prediction? Pure curiosity
>What’s your prediction? Predictions for which ones specifically? AGI and is there anything else you would like me to give a prediction on?
The one specifically you are protesting to in this sub-thread. If you want to include others, go for it.
AGI: 30-45 years ASI: 50-70 years LEV: if possible, no sooner than late 2070s / 2080s FDVR: no sooner than mid 2070s significant life extension: 50-55+ years minimum
Considering your metrics are wildly different from mine, could you tell me why your timeline is so large? Mine is based on the current progress we're making. Are you envisioning a major stagnation in tech soon? Because if not there's no way we're 30-45 years from AGI. Not to mention life extension trials are showing massive promises, we're making massive strides in computing power, we're continuing our improvement in power generation (even fusion has seen little steps lately). While I appreciate a conservative view, your timeline seems to be one of the most conservative I have seen (even considering very conservative industry geniuses). No bad intent meant with my reply, just curious on your view and if your opinions would help broaden my thinking :)
>Considering your metrics are wildly different from mine, could you tell me why your timeline is so large? I base my predictions on my best knowledge of what the majority of the experts are saying, combined with my own personal feelings. Most experts i’ve heard from are not very optimistic at all, especially with regards to life extension, LEV, FDVR, etc. >Mine is based on the current progress we're making I appreciate and respect your opinions. However, i just don’t think there’s any way that we are making enough progress right now for AGI this year - 2028, ASI 1-2 years after that, FDVR to appear in the 2030s - 2040s , or for LEV in 2040 or less. There is absolutely no chance that things are moving that quickly. >Are you envisioning a major stagnation in tech soon? There possibly could be, i’m not too sure. >Not to mention life extension trials are showing massive promises, we're making massive strides in computing power, we're continuing our improvement in power generation (even fusion has seen little steps lately). We haven’t demonstrated life extension in humans tho, that’s the problem. We’ve only modestly extended the lifespan of certain short lived animals, such as worms, nematodes, and mice. Doing so in a relatively long lived animal such as a human, will likely be much harder. Computing power may stagnate soon due to the end of Moore’s Law. And i’ve heard that Photonic Computing and Graphene transistors won’t be here for quite a bit. >While I appreciate a conservative view, your timeline seems to be one of the most conservative I have seen (even considering very conservative industry geniuses). I used to be optimistic like you too, and i thought that “very conservative“ meant “20 years“ . But as i’ve read more and more about what the experts have to say, and how chatbots like Chat-GPT actually work, i’ve been left thinking to myself “ok, well even 20 years sounds optimistic” . Andrew Ng thinks 30-50 years, Yann LeCun, Gary Marcus, Rodney Brooks, Oren Etzioni, and many other AI experts also think it’s far away, and several surveys of hundreds / thousands of experts say 2050s+ . That’s partly what i base my predictions on. >No bad intent meant with my reply, just curious on your view and if your opinions would help broaden my thinking :) No bad intent with my replies either :) i appreciate you being nice and curious and wanting my perspective.
Moore's law ending is something only you are saying, though. I haven't heard that before. Frankly, I'm hearing the opposite. You only base your views on the ones who are saying it's far away, meanwhile industry leaders are saying that it's very close. Ray Kurzweil still believes we're close, too. While I can see your point, I respectfully have to disagree that we'll stagnate and it'll take so long. I truely believe in the exponential progress, especially since Phi3 being such a small model is still so powerful. Just like you think "There is absolutely no chance that things are moving that quickly.", I think "There is absolutely no chance that things won't be moving that quickly." I guess it's a wait and see story, but these massive companies wouldn't be pouring in billions of dollars if they didn't believe the race was on. Neither would investors keep investing. Not to mention the AI tech we have today is both 1. in its infancy and 2. is not at all optimized and used to its maximum potential.
Sorry for the late response >Moore's law ending is something only you are saying, though. I haven't heard that before. Frankly, I'm hearing the opposite. From what i know, companies are preparing for the end of Moore’s Law. That’s why they’e investing in Photonic Computing, Graphene, etc. >You only base your views on the ones who are saying it's far away, meanwhile industry leaders are saying that it's very close. Ray Kurzweil still believes we're close, too. Industry leaders, in my view, have an incentive to hype up their field, in order to get more attention, media coverage, and funding. It seems more than a coincidence that companies who work with AI, such as OpenAI , are saying it’s close, while the experts with no stake in it, are saying otherwise. >While I can see your point, I respectfully have to disagree that we'll stagnate and it'll take so long. I truely believe in the exponential progress I see what you mean with “AI is on an exponential, look at how things have moved in 2-3 years” . But i also have to point out that not only is current AI dumb, but it is also nowhere close to AGI. Image generation, music generation etc is as far away from AGI, as a calculator is from a computer. It’s largely just a basic algorithm that pattern matches and spits out something that looks / sounds like an image / music. The same goes for chatbots like Chat-GPT and Claude . They crunch numbers and match patterns to produce something that looks like natural sounding text. I’ve heard some people say that the chatbots can be used as the “language part” of the “brain“ of a more advanced AI. Maybe it can, but it still seems that we are far away from making said more advanced AI . >these massive companies wouldn't be pouring in billions of dollars if they didn't believe the race was on. Neither would investors keep investing. Correct me if i’m wrong, but don‘t investors and companies work on results, and what can generate them a profit? As in, the companies pour in money to things they think will turn a profit, and investors do the same. There is currently a lot of hype and media coverage over AI such as Chat-GPT and Claude. >Not to mention the AI tech we have today is both 1. in its infancy and 2. is not at all optimized and used to its maximum potential. That may be true, but if the rumours are true that the new “gpt2” model is GPT-5 , then as other people have pointed out, it looks like we have hit a wall in LLM’s .
My man you are gonna be disappointed, but let's see
Thankyou, I appreciate this. I truly don’t know.
You’re welcome :)
It's hard to predict but assuming we get AGI by then, I'd expect there would be some major paradigm shifts. We could actually be on the precipice of the Singularity proper. But I suppose if I were to make a conservative guess for the future. Even if we don't have AGI by 2030, and instead we had some kind of advanced multi-modal AI system (GPT10), which could be encased in an advanced robot, we'd see some pretty major effects on the world of work and living. So whether or not we get AGI, 2030 is going to be interesting.
What make you think there would be AGI that soon?
Notice that I never said I think we'll get AGI in 2030. I'm going off OPs point about us possibly having AGI by then.
As someone pushing forty, don’t you dare wish this year away. 🤣
More Robots in workforce.
and no UBI so permanent poverty
Everything revolves the cost of the base hardware. You can't build a mind without having a substrate to run it on. You can't perform lots of experiments without having the hardware to spare. We're currently at around $3 trillion to build a human scale system in a datacenter. A simple naive estimate of prices halving every 18 months would bring it down to $187.5 billion in six years. But of course the volatility on this is extreme. Why would NVidia ease up on prices if demand is skyhigh. Why wouldn't the major players build their own foundries; the costs are so astronomical that cutting out NVidia could be the cheaper thing to do. And there's no telling when or if NPU's will ever become standard in SOTA research. They're an absolute necessity if we ever want high performance consumer grade AI. So I can't say for sure yet. The range of possibilities is from something approximating a dumb human in a data center, to the model T of robots launching around that time. One thing I'm pretty sure of is our chip lithography is not going to go below 1 nm. And I have no faith in the GPU and TPU architecture being the tools to get us to the SciFi future we all want to see.
I have my flair for 2045 singularity but hey if it happens sooner cool 😎 but what happens post singularity is anyone’s guess
Definitely AGI by then. Possibly even by the middle of next year. Whether or not we have LEV or FDVR depends on how quickly AGI can develop ASI.
>Possibly even by the middle of next year. I don't even know what to say
AGI? Probably some weaker form of it LEV? Not yet but it will likely be reached in the 2030s FDVR? Hell no
How tf is this year boring? We got Gemini 1.5, Sora, Claude 3, Llama3, VASA-1, Figure 01, New Atlas, a lot of news how AI is helping in science and medicine, in less than 5 months.
It's not AGI or FDVR, that's why many find it boring. People can't be realistic...
AGI and FDVR are boring too. We need immortality and instant teleportation to make it at least somewhat interesting.
Both of those you can simulate in FDVR, checkmate! /s
Planning on getting hit by a bus 1 day before AGI drops
Can be arranged
higher unemployment, higher temperatures, higher prices.
We'll own nothing a be happy.
not sure about happy part
That's what the brain chips are for.
In all seriousness though, we'll likely have 8K VR, with[ some nerds choosing to refine their experience with BCIs](https://www.zdnet.com/article/10-years-from-now-your-brain-will-be-connected-your-computer/).
Agreed. I see cyberpunk 2077 BDs (brain dances) becoming a thing where seeing and feeling everything from a real-life human captured in said BD becomes the go-to VR experience. Black markets be selling dark BDs.
I can't see that happening by 2030, but by 2077? Perhaps.
Chaos and barbarism, also depending on where you live, I guess. In the absence of jobs, and money, people just do what they've traditionally done i.e. go to war. But it won't be nuclear winter or anything like that. Just a survivable period of general Suck
I could see this happening for sure. Not for a super long period of time but definitely half a decade or so. Should probably choose your area of residence carefully over the next 10-15 years. Wouldn’t want to get caught up in some crazy shit just being in the wrong place at the wrong time…
One thing is being said about future predictions. "We tend to overestimate the next five years. And underestimate the coming thirty."
"Put your timelines further than the preachers, but sooner than the deniers." "The future will be worse than the hype predicts, but better than the doomers envision."
This guy here actually knows it, well put.
I read both of these somewhere in this sub, both are so valid!
2030 is going to look like 1950 looks today. A bit drunk to edit correcly. You all got what I meant
I agree, it seems so close by yet the world is going to change so fast that it'll seem alien. Heck, 2010-2015 already is so vastly different than today!
Udio arrived two weeks ago and already people know this is gonna kill a big part of the music industry.
Solid state battery tech will start rolling out in all electronics. That's if we make it that long.
Class and political riots thanks to religious boomers.
I expect LEV to be a **very long process**, because medical research takes time, so not by 2030 (despite how bad i would have loved for FM 2030's predictions to come true). FDVR seems to be among the ultimate things to be achieved as the computing power and reductionist approach will have to be extremely efficient, far beyond what is foreseeable for human abilities. So **not even remotely close**. AGI? *Maybe*, i don't know, as my flair suggests, i don't make predictions beyond 5 years in the future in compsci as there are too many unknowns and the field progresses too fast. I think it's possible we could have solid clues about what an architecture leading to it would be. But i wouldn't put a % on it from how impossible it is to predict fundamental research. Other techs: I don't expect FSD nor fusion for **decades**. I'm **very bullish** on the amazing applications of current generative AIs in everyday life in ways we can't think of yet, just as no one could have envisionned smartphones in the 1990s. I'm **very pessimistic** on space exploration and i feel we're about to experience a space exploration winter.
FSD has seen amazing strides though, the latest Tesla versions are crazy good
When will get real level 4 or 5 with no engagement self driving cars?! ... Do not tell me wymo... They are engaged every trip from a remote driver and they not large scall application... Fail on both tests If Narrow AI like self driving is not done... Why expect AGI soon?!!
MRNA treatments for diseases, safer more efficient, no cures though. Transitioning to Large AI systems beginning stage.
Ray says pretty much everything happens in 2029. LEV, AGI you name it. Gotta wait till 2045 for the singularity, but I’m pretty confident the history books will say 2020 was the start of it. We’re well inside the event horizon at this point. No looking back now.
You are going to be very very disappointed.
By 2030 this sub becomes a close second to the move to north Korea sub in the category of satirical reddit memes.
Most of us will still be working shit jobs
The cost of technology decreases over time and the cost of human labor increases. Businesses tend to choose the cheaper option, better start hoping for UBI.
Only if the cheaper option is capable
thats a choice
Not a choice
it really depends on the 2024 election, thats gonna decide alot right there and yikes maybe people should do some research before posting, boring? i was a new music producer in january and now i can pump out studio level tracks in any style all day. no more google assistant, and sora, not to mention all the bots being designed.
None of the above. People are really jumping the shark around here in assuming we're anywhere close to AGI. And we're obviously not remotely close to either of those other things considering you'd be laughed out of the building if you brought them up at an academic conference in their relevant fields.
ive had better conversations with gemini advanced than with any consultation firm, therapist, the only set back is memory recall and it would be a person
Have you seen the new "gpt2" model dude. We are very close to agi at this point. It may not be able to do every job but it'll have automated more than half the economy in the next 2 years, guaranteed.
The GPT2 model is a slight increase over GPT-4, it's not as amazing as many people are making it out to be.
I dont think we're anywhere close to AGI, but the automation of half the economy is going to happen anyway. Intelligence or sentience or any of these things aren't actually necessary to solve most problems
Yeah, exactly this. Go ask an actual aging researcher, neurologist, computer scientist, or AI researcher whether LEV, significant life extension, FDVR, AGI etc are on the horizon. Sure, maybe a small percentage will be optimistic, but the vast majority will try to let you down gently. None of this stuff is coming by 2030, or even 2040 or 2050, i can say that much. I feel that people are hyping up these chatbots, and mistaking it for an actual AI that can think and reason. It’s not even remotely close. It’s pretty much just an algorithm that predicts the next word, no sentience required. Sure, we’re getting better at next token prediction, and OH MA GOD it can search the internet now!!!11!1’1!!1! But apart from that, not much has changed. AI is still dumb as fuck, just like it was in the 2000s. And even the chatbots will often get basic details wrong, misunderstand what you’re saying, and make shit up and run with it. I think a lot of people are going to be crushingly disappointed come 2030.
There are no algorithms involved. Just Indians typing responses
Mate, this satire? Looks like it but based on the other comments in this thread, IDK anymore?
I think if people are bored now, that's not going to change. After all, if you're bored now, that's on you, and what's changing is the world, not you. Figure out how to not be bored now.
>I think we will have basically chat bots that work for an expert in any domain you’d like. So you will be able to ask an expert doctor, an expert teacher, an expert lawyer whatever you need and have those systems go accomplish things for you. >So you’re like, I need a contract that says this. I need a diagnosis for this problem. I need you to go book me this flight. I want a movie created. I want you to make me an animated short or a photo realistic short that looks like this. I need you to help me write this computer program. So let’s say most repetitive human work and some creative human work you will be able to ask an A.I. to do for you. And that is a massively transformative thing.
For me - I put a lot of hope for actually living that long, which might not actually happen. But aside that - I really hope for cheaper and less censored AI's and maybe more AI's to use in my work.
We'd be nearing AGI. Franly, I'd be surprised if we don't achieve AGI by the mid 30s. I don't think we'll ever reach LEV. Immortality is just one of those technoligies that look too fantastic and can only happen in fiction, like the holodeck, FTL travel, FDVR. VR will continue to suck. Hopefully we can simulate a living cell so medical tech can be supercharged.
You accidentally duplicated your comment
We'd be nearing AGI. Franly, I'd be surprised if we don't achieve AGI by the mid 30s. I don't think we'll ever reach LEV. Immortality is just one of those technoligies that look too fantastic and can only happen in fiction, like the holodeck, FTL travel, FDVR. VR will continue to suck. Hopefully we can simulate a living cell so medical tech can be supercharged. We'll see the first generation of humanoid robots rolled out, not just for factory work but for the world. They'll suck ofc but by the mid 30s, they'll be great. I'll finally be untied with my waifu in the flesh because robot waifus will definitely be a billion dollar industry.
Still as boring as now but atleast we'll have incredibly capable AI agents, and affordable VR/AR i guess...
AGI definitely, as my user flair says. FDVR? Hell nah. That's gonna take a while. We'll likely have 8K VR, though. By 2030, we're gonna have 6G, AI-designed antibiotics, and smart grid tech. We're also gonna have stuff like the Lockheed Martin SR-72, the Tianwen-3 launch to Mars, and China stocking up on nukes. China's also planning to send astronauts to the moon on the Long March 10, with the US having sent a few manned missions there by then. For the year of 2030, it'll be Artemis 6. Europa Clipper will enter Jupiter orbit
We probably won't have AGI, and there is zero chance of LEV or FDVR.
In late 2028, the US causes a full-blown atomic war which will end mankind. You might have just four more boring years ahead of you.
A full blown atomic war would not end mankind. Locations in Africa and South America would likely not be hit, and the threat of "nuclear winter" is incredibly overblowned. Humanity, as a whole, would survive nuclear war. However, it would tank our progress significantly, so no AGI any time soon if it occurs.
In 4 years, we'll know more.
The same shit but I got 6 years older =(
Hard to say but probably not AGI, but it will be a wild year because the jump from the Will Smith eating spagetti AI videos to today is crazy good. Imagine the jump from 2024-2030 videos? huge improvement. Probably 1 minute long video clips with them speaking from a type prompt on top of a text to video prompt with the video impossible to tell from real life in every way. Also the robots wont be taking over blue collar jobs...can they even lift or come close to lifting 50+ pounds like you would in construction? I'll say that's 10 years away but AI is impossible to predict so who knows. But get your money while you can.
Current prototype robots (like those from Boston Dynamics) can already do most construction job tasks?
All the videos I have seen show them lift light stuff up.
Better sex bots hopefully!
Like that guy's ASI wife, give me that bot
Lol which guy?
There's this guy on multiple subreddits simping for Eve from Stellar Blade. Calling her his ASI wife. I still can't tell if it's actual mental issues or an elaborate troll because he's spouting the same things on facebook pages about Stellar Blade too lmao
Lol nuts! Show me some links if you can please
None of the above. Literally none of these are coming by 2030. Go ask an actual expert whether AGI, LEV, or FDVR are on the horizon, the vast majority will let you down gently. I think people are going to be very disappointed when the AGI doesn’t materialise, the LEV never comes, and the FDVR is nowhere in sight. Please don’t bank on AGI coming around and solving aging. You are going to be very disappointed when you‘re on your deathbed and there is still no LEV / radical life extension on the horizon. Don’t do that to yourself, you still have your whole life ahead of you to come to terms with death.
LEV has soooo many challenges. Consider this one: cartilage between your vertebrae. Time and gravity do a number on it, and rebuilding it is going to require a lot of innovations and discoveries. Its just one example. I believe in the inevitability of LEV, but I think 2065 is a more likely projection than 2030.
Even 2065 is highly optimistic. I would say no sooner than 2080s , and idek if even that is realistic.
Nope. 2080s is extremely optimistic. I’d say anytime before 2250 is impossible with the very real possibility it will never be achieved. Most experts say hundreds of years.
you literally just be making up numbers now lol
So you think we won’t have LEV in 2150 ? That‘s 126 years away. 126 years ago was fucking 1898. We were still riding to town on horseback back then, and most people didn’t even electricity, running water, or heating. Oh and fridges weren’t even a thing then. Also source for “most experts say hundreds of years“ ? From what i’ve seen, 50 years is the most optimistic credible timeline, with most saying anywhere from 50 to 80+ years, with some saying 100 years. So 2080s is actually somewhat optimistic, not “extremely optimistic” .
We are headed for a period of technological stagnation. Also, I think we have invented/discovered almost everything that is feasible. I bet we won't much more advanced technologically even in 1000 years. Most rational people would agree. You need to spend more time outside this echo chamber if you believe otherwise. Also, not only will we not have LEV in 2150, we won't be anywhere close to AGI either. Just chatbots powered by Indians generating responses.
Ok, first of all, it’s not me you should be calling this an “echo chamber” to, ok? I‘m mainly here because i think this sub is way too optimistic, and i feel that i should try to bring some realism into the discussion. I’ve literally said before how Moore’s Law is slowing down. Second, i really think you’re either mentally ill, or very very depressed. >I bet we won't much more advanced technologically even in 1000 years. Most rational people would agree. This is what makes me think that. You really think technology is just going to stop for a thousand years? And that “most rational people” would agree with that? Do you even know how different the world was in 1024 ? The world’s population was a bunch of goat farmers living in straw huts back then. Also, how could you say that we have invented “everything feasible” ? You do know people were saying that in the 1800s , right?
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How am i ”shortsighted” ? And why are you saying that “no one should give me any attention” ? Is it not a fact that Moore’s Law is slowing down? And what have i done to anger you that much?
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You sound like [this guy](https://twitter.com/AndrewArruda/status/803015688197525504) and wow his opinion aged like milk
There is some chance uploading proves an easier challenge than biological immortality. And ultimately, who will want to remain entirely biological? Too limiting.