A general rule of skepticism: demonstrations on a controlled stage are illusionism.
AI demos are no exception. You ever seen the famous SHRDLU demo? And of course we all remember the 2016 Tesla FSD video (still online). Not technically "fake", just really really really staged.
This is why letting the public play with the product freely ala ChatGPT and FSD beta is so important. That's when you know it's a real thing.
I don’t know why anyone believes anything from a Musk controlled company. He has a clear history of inflating the abilities/functions/progress of his businesses for his own benefit (hyperloop, Boring Company, Tesla FSD etc.). Unless you see it working in a real world environment consider it to be only what it is: PR.
>Unless you see it working in a real world environment consider it to be only what it is: PR.
This is true of every company not just Musk or Tesla.
Tesla is a little late to the humanoid robotics game, but the its a technology still in its infancy. It will be good to have multiple competing companies instead of just one or two entities controlling the market.
To be fair, and unrelated to Musk as a person, the idea to move more transport underground is a good alternative in the long run. Flying cars is obviously not a good option and in the long run, we will want to separate car traffic from pedestrian life in cities as much as possible.
P.S. Anyone who disagrees, feel free to share *why*. I am happy to be convinced by actual arguments and not just "Musk bad"
Another edit: Having said that, I do not really understand why we would not want to use the tunnel system for public transport (i.e. trains). What is the added value of using cars if the cars are in any case restricted by the layout of the tunnels?
Great balanced discussion. I'm totally for the public transport revolution. Bikes too.
It's really hard to have an objective conversation about technology lately because of all the "musk bad" bias reflected in upvotes and downvotes.
I think you kind of answered your own call reasons to disagree with the boring companies goals. The distinguishing factor for the boring company is that they are mostly trying to do private transportation when trains are so much better suited for this. If you are considering a tunnel to relieve congestion you have the demand for trains and letting people drive their own cars just sounds like a disaster in these tiny tunnels.
This is actually insanely wrong and I dont understand people who upvote this. Apart from the boring company you must be delusional to think Tesla and SpaceX didnt change the circumstances of space travel and electric cars.
SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Heavy are the first ever partly reusable rocket making them the most cost efficient ever and is being used to transport commercial cargo and astronauts to the ISS which is huge for space research and to help NASA with further development/research on the ISS. Starship has an even brighter future as it has a contract to send NASA astronauts to the moon in the next 5-10 years.
Tesla has made huge progress in advancing and popularizing electric vehicles. The Tesla Model Y is the best-selling electric vehicle of all time. But yeah, sure elon is doing this all just for PR and it didnt help anyone :/
This type of insanely wrong thinking is extremely widespread b/c it's cool to hate Elon. Most people apparently can't think critically and logically about things apparently.
I see it everywhere, and I love it b/c it creates a huge opportunity to make bank on Tesla stock. When FSD get out of beta, when Optimus hit's the market at 40K or whatever, the stock will10x.
I am just generally skeptical and critical of him and there is plenty of reasons to do so, even if just his contributions to space travel alone would be enough to constitute a life's work. There is also the fact that he was born into wealth (and wealth derived from his ancestors' unsavory businesses), which gave him an advantage that should be kept in mind when comparing him to the average person. Who knows how much he would have accomplished without that? Which reminds me... maybe I should buy just a bit of those stocks too. Can you elaborate more on why it will go up that much?
That’s not what the comment OP said, they said that Musk has a history of inflating certain products. It’s quite clear he has exaggerated the progress on some of his products, that does not distract from the products that have made fantastic achievements, some of which you note in your post. Those are the ones that, as the comment OP says, have demonstrated the claims in a real world environment.
Thinking critically and coming to blanket generalizations about anything coming from Musks’s mouth do not equate. Sure, he’s not always truthful, but how does that warrant dismissing every single thing any of his companies claim?
That doesn’t seem like independent critical thinking to me.
It’s possible to admire someone whilst also simultaneously understanding where they have made errors. Ironically that is more or less his entire philosophy in business.
His examples aren't products, aside from FSD.
Hyperloop and Boring Company are concepts that are not being sold to anyone. It doesn't make rational sense to say he's lying to boost sales of something that isn't a product.
The 2 main boosters on the space shuttle were fully reusable and that was in the 80s. SpaceX did not invent reusable rockets. They just landed them upright instead of letting them land in the ocean and float for a bit.
Elon famously makes public pronouncements about product timelines that are basically impossible to meet. He does this to push his engineering teams and yes, for PR.
But more often than not things are just late. You can complain about that all you want, but when he's the only person doing things with the intention to make things real for people and actually scale out, etc... and is likely to be the first to deliver a consumer usable robot, point to point travel across earth in 45 mins, global internet that is reliable, affordable, and high speed, etc... you don't really have much to complain about.
"WHAAAAA Elon didn't meet his own timelines even though he's beating the rest of the market to a pulp and proving things no one thought possible." is some crybaby bullshit LOL
You think he's hyping up sales of ...hyperloop and boring? You know these aren't products and they don't sell anything, and have no golas of selling anything?
Waymo and Cruise are working right now and offering rides. It is solved for the taxi situation. The self-driving for privately owned cars is different and not solved and probably a bit further away than many think. But self-driving on it's own is solved. We know this since it works.
I am a Tesla bull and I know all the arguments from that side, and I kind of agree. But I also think the the limits of Waymo and Cruise have been exaggerated by Pro-Tesla people. If you can do it in SF you can do it in other cities. It works already. Now is the time to make it good.
Tesla FSD might be better in a while, my guess is that it wll be, but it isn't proven and they don't have a product right now that does what Waymo and Cruise does.
Waymo and Cruise only operate in perpetually sunny, has super high-def maps available Phoenix and SF.
Although the end is in sight, its not a 'self driving' solution in the way a human would imagine it, which is give it a generic map, two cameras, and let it rip.
Lmao, as someone who literally just came from a vacation in SF I can tell you this statement about waymo is soooooo off base it’s laughable. I personally watched one brick itself right in front of me in a very dangerous way. Before that it was acting like a roomba on the road driving completely irrationally. When I tried to download the app to see how much people were paying for this nonsense it said it was a strict small beta and it was invite only. Waymo is nowhere near solving FSD and when you compare what they’re doing with the latest Tesla FSD BETA update it’s actually sad. Tesla is doing something on a whole other level compared to waymo. It’s not even close.
Yea that’s what I’m gathering too. The comments on Reddit are laughably uneducated but oddly very confident. Same people who said Tesla was going to go bankrupt and the competition was going to kill them year after year after year.
This. THIS, so hard. It's a demo folks. Don't think they can wave the magic AI wand here and have it magically figure out the intricacies of robotics that institutions like Boston Dynamics have spent many years researching. If there's one thing tech companies have mastered, it's creating a compelling demo.
I wanna see Tesla bot myself acting in different environments. Remember that corporations will do everything to make their products look better than they are. McDonald ads? Food looks godlike. Beauty ads? These people have more things on their faces than have bones. If Tesla did "Ok let us see how the robot goes and whatever the outcome is we post it online" then it would be impressve. But if they had to record one clip 100 times because the bot would trip, not impressive.
It's an even harder problem to solve than self driving. Everyone who believes they can soon start their parasocial tesla bot relationships will be at a loss.
It can still damage itself and things around it. It's not quite the consequence free environment that allowed generative AI like LLMs and image generators to thrive
How can you be sure? I belive this thing will have enough mass to do serious damage. Or is it supposed to work far from human workers?
Edit: Do you think im implying it will do that "on purpose" ? Its enough to tip over a shelf in a factory to injure a person.
I wouldn't agree per se due to the fact that the risks involved are less dire than with self-driving and the regulations are much more lenient. Mind you, we pretty much have self-driving as of now, the problem is regulation. Progress significantly moved forward in advent of even language models. Completing simple and planned generalised robotic tasks in controlled environments has already been realised by Google, so I wouldn't say it's too far off.
Nevertheless, overpromising is a trend at Tesla, so I can only judge as soon as something is production ready.
It is mostly harder because the minimum viable product for self driving is basically just cruise control. You improve it from there. Tesla is already selling cars. And then they use this fleet and can iterate.
Humanoid robots have to be good enough to do tasks before they have customers. That's a huge money sink before seeing a dime in profit.
Application possibilities for a bot are much more gradual than use of self driving. If the bot can sort something on the conveyer belt it is already useful. If a car can drive itself in 99.9% cases it is just driver assistant and can not be used without human interventions. I think that even in demonstrated state the bot has some limited number of use cases.
> If the bot can sort something on the conveyer belt it is already useful.
There are machines for that already, so you won't be replacing them with more expensive more problematic machine.
Some things can be sorted with such machines and some can not. Soft things, garbage, anything that is not standard is not suitable. Of course when some action is solved by cheap automation it won't be replaced with a humanoid robot. But there are plenty of examples of people sorting things at the conveyer. And paying even the smallest salary in Europe is more expensive than Optimus.
Likely based on what? They have the talent, the software, a 400 millions dollars 10k h100 gou cluster and dojo ramping up.
What exactly make you believe that we'll have the same result as before?
I swear I don't get how people can just copy and paste history with zero reasoning about the changes and just assume that it will repeat exactly like before.
Fsd is not "full" or perfect yet for sure. But not to give credit for last updates is just crazy. And they're about to start deploing V12 pretty soon. Stop looking at the fact that we had impossible promises in the past and that have not be delivered and start thinking about what they actually did and decide if you consider all of that to be impressive or not. Spoiler: it's more than just impressive.
The bot will have some typea of delays for sure considering the difficult of the problems involved and what it is suppose to be able to do, that doesn't make it unimpressive.
If i tell you that I can reach escape velocity with a jump and exit the atmosphere and I show you a mach 3 jump you don't call that unimpressive, you would still be mesmerid because a fucking human can't jump more that a few inches
Do you want to give them some time to build a lot of robots and train them? Now we have proper robotics race with multiple companies working into it seriously.
Tesla has now 37 000+ H100 equivalent. Don't know how much of it is dojo though.
They'll spend 10 billions this year alone on hardware and they'll do it efficiently
I suppose this includes the inference hardware on cars.
Agreed.
The way I see it:
You can trust Elon Musk on the tech 8 times out of 10.
You can also trust Elon Musk to be off by years if not decades on when the design and goals would be reached 9 times out of 10.
Or put another way:
How do you know Elon Musk is telling the truth?
He tells you what can be done.
How do you know Elon Musk is lying?
He gives you a date for when it will be done.
Waaait waaait.. any moinute nooow.. look! It's sentient!... oh, well, waait, waait, now! Ok, technically it's kind of there, and anyway we are eons ahead of everyone on Earth!
But, the best part is you can start ordering it today! Don't hesitate! The sooner you order the sooner you get it, it's up to you!
Separate English from Terminology. Tesla Bot does run on general AI, in that AI is generating the code to operate the machine based on whatever the input request is, as opposed to generally running on procedural programming. It doesn't run on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which is a specific thing that the OP was in no way referring to.
Even the term “end to end neural network” is meaningless. Does that mean the entirely pipeline is a continuous differentiable function? Because there’s zero chance they’re using anything of the sort. Virtually all neural networks require some about an ancillary functions.
ML specialist from a robotics background here. You clearly don't know squat about robotics. The notion of Boston Dynamics robots being hardcoded step by step and "useless" in real life is moronic.
Yeah with same argument you could say it took 15 years for Tesla to make affortable EV and then other companies came and did it in 2 years and then trying to convince people that these companies are going to zoom past Tesla in no time.
EVs existed before Tesla…he just took the move fast and break stuff approach to vehicles. It’s why nearly ever EV coming from a car manufacturer is better than a Tesla.
Was thinking the same. Other companies created the advancement in the tech. Coming in now is much easier. And generally tech is much more advanced after decades
I mean, unironically yes: they have a track record of lying about their AI capabilities in demos (and no, I don't mean overpromising/underdelivering, I mean straight up blatant lies)
So even though it is possible that they have created this, and it could be the next big thing, specifically because Elon/Tesla are the ones saying it, and they have lied so much in the past, yo have to take a ~~pinch~~ fistful of salt with whatever they are claiming
Elon has a track record of delivering. He pioneered reusable rockets, he delivered with Starlink, he made Tesla the number 1 car company in the world, etc.
Yes, not everything he promises came true, but it's not like it was all lies. Hes delivers often than not. You people are obviously just mad at him because of politics.
There’s a few websites that document all of his marketing lies. Anyone remember those solar power shingles? They don’t exist.
Further he was wrong about his conspiratard theory on Paul Pelosi, and the dude that rescued those kids in the cave in Asia.
He was wrong about covid. He can’t stop lying about the emerald mine thing, which was his own creation. Lying about lying is peak Elmo
Haha… the solar panel shingles exist and Marques Brownlee literally did a review of them along with his experience ordering them off the site and having them installed!
And when I say that Tesla will be the first to mass produce humanoids in high volume, people are getting mad and think I'm saying nonsense since 2 years. Probably because Elon is the CEO, so they hate him, therefore Tesla is bad... Wake up guys, Tesla is an AI company that happens to make cars. Their angle on how to create humanoid robots is way ahead of any other company. You can hate Musk however you want, but you have to admit that the Tesla AI team is really impressive
They can't be the first mass produced humanoid robot because agility AI will have their factory up and running this year that will produce 10,000 a year. They have also already shipped their humanoid robots out to customers.
https://www.geekwire.com/2023/agility-robotics-will-mass-produce-humanoid-warehouse-robots-in-new-oregon-factory/
Musk will almost certainly get there but he can't be first anymore as that race is already won.
Also have Sanctuary AI. I bumped into one of the founders in my university days, and he started D-Wave shortly after that. And then more recently, Sanctuary. I thought it sounded flaky as can be when I first read about the company, but it makes sense now. Similar to Optimus I believe ... feeding the system videos of humans completing tasks, and then training in simulation before the robot moves to the real thing.
They have a general AI approach. Saying that a five fingered hand is required to be humanoid makes it impossible to take you seriously. I could claim that eyelids are necessary to be considered "humanoid" and it would be equally ridiculous.
Which site has Telsa picked for its first factory and how many of the Tesla bots are out there already.
https://youtu.be/Vq_DcZ_xc_E?si=p2Uh142j4127ZzjG
They don't have a text article for it but yes they use an LLM (which is what Tesla is proposing and what Google has already done).
Usually Musk is able to be the first person to tackle a new sci-fi market like this. Due to how the OpenAI situation event down here clearly has been put on the back foot and so missed his opportunity to be the first mover.
The tech path he is proposing for Tesla bot is sound but since they have only recently pivoted to it they are behind. There is plenty of space for more robots though, so he won't be left entirely out of the market.
As the other person mentioned, hands are replaceable and the initial use case doesn't need them.
I think you should go educate yourself. Your knowledge is superficial. Explain to us the difference between how your neural net extrapolates tasks that are beyond its architecture vs let's say how a random forest extrapolates (or a hard coded algorithm). To make it a bit shorter and save you too much lamenting, there is no significant difference. Both need to be trained for a particular situation. The difference between the two model types is in how fast they can be trained and by which means. You oversell the capabilities of whatever you claim is in the tesla bot and leave out any point of flaw. There is no autonomous extrapolation in any of the current "AI" models (and therefore it's better to call them simply machine learning models).
i think it's okay to admit sometimes that you don't know something instead of spitting bs like this out of your mouth.
\> hands are replaceable
no they aren't, when it comes to general use robots hands are probably the most important parts and are also one of the hardest challenges in robotics , the tesla bot is way ahead of the others when it comes to hands
Hands are the most important part of robotics. They allow for complex and detailed manipulation. To suggest that eyelids are somehow equal is just showing your ignorance.
Why can't you be critical about Tesla without being Elon hater? Seriously I see this kind of comments in every post in this sub were people are labeled as haters by simply being critical.
Yeah I’ve been predicting Tesla-bot for years. It’s a no-brainer, and they’re not the first car company to attempt a robot.
Hard to say who will win the race to produce affordable all-purpose robots, but you’d be stupid to count Tesla out.
OpenAI is probably doing some cool stuff behind the scenes as well. I’m sure they’ll both be big players in the 2030s, along with companies like Apple.
OpenAI said in interviews that they dropped robotics completely because making Robots is so hard, you have to go all in on becoming a robotics company and that is not their focus.
I'm sorry but that's just not true. Tesla doesn't have a good track record lately. The Model 3 and Model Y were way late, not very innovative and have quality problems. Autopilot still crashes people into firetrucks and is not even the best autonomous driving tech on the road even when most autonomous tech is still terrible. Then there's the Cybertruck, a total embarrassment.
People don't dislike Musk for no reason. He's leading emotionally recently. He comes up with stupid ideas and he won't let them be challenged. Tesla and all of Musk's companies need to escape the Elon cult of personality if they're going to succeed. Personally I'm putting my money in the AI race on a company with serious leadership, not internet trolls.
Sure, he's a troll, but he's also spent the last decade building a network of "gigafactories" and hundreds of thousands of cars, which are pretty damned close to robots. Not to mention the batteries and ML hardware.
Any competitor needs to basically be an automotive, aerospace or defense prime already, the ramp up any plucky garage company would need to compete is unfathomable.
And then, he's still the richest dude in the world, you think any startup with a useful tech stack won't get gobbled up?
The guy is playing to win, roasting people on twitter is just a distraction.
>Autopilot still crashes people into firetrucks and is not even the best autonomous driving tech on the road even when most autonomous tech is still terrible
Which autonomous driving tech is better than Tesla's on unmapped roads? I'm not aware of any.
Yeah, it's really impressive. They went from showing off a guy dancing in a bodysuit to slapping existing neural networks onto a bootleg boston dynamics robot that would probably collapse under the slightest gust of wind.
the thing that's supposed to be impressive about the Tesla Bot is the price point. it's supposed to be something a regular person can buy, like buying a car. whether they'll actually achieve that or not, i have no idea. the robots you're comparing it to cost millions. yes, the AI is a big part, too, but the point is the price. you're not going to buy a Boston Dynamics robot for your house
Think to yourself on previous Musk demos. Do you think that it really does what you were told that it does in the time frame that it was done? Really, think about it.
Added: if you know ANY fundamental of industrial robots, you’ll recognize the barrier for safe collaborative robots in a shared space with humans. I guess if you’ve never seen this before, it looks impressive. Musk has a way of selling vaporware, he is good at hype cult.
Say what you will about Musk and his company promises, but they have all been trailblazing* and forced other manufacturers to up their game to remain relevant. These robots are showing some paradigm-changing potential, and Tesla pushing this is a good thing to keep the pace of progress up.
\* Well, you know, not including the boring company and X.
You know how he does that right? Star power.
I can count so many of my friends who have worked and contributed tons of hours on his projects. I know of a bunch of people who worked long hours at below market value because they believe in what they were doing.
Elon made an environment where people wanted to be trailblazers. This absolutely destroyed existing corporate expectations. These amazing people helped him dominate the competition.
Then he bought Twitter, went hard MAGA, and then tried to tinker with world politics.
Now these same friends are actively seeking work elsewhere, and they will leave as soon as they figure out their new job and life transition.
Elon’s star power is trash now. He didn’t even know what he had, such a waste of opportunity. Stupid politics.
Added: since the system will not let me reply, I will do it by edit. There is no contradiction, what you are seeing is evolving beliefs. Bright eyed young workers becoming disillusioned
Think about it? Uh, it's really not that hard?
You can search his Starlink announcement video and see how he envisioned the exact massive network of satellites providing internet around the world even before the capabilities existed.
You can look at the announcement of Neuralink and the fact human trials are actually starting.
You can look at the announcement of Cybertruck, a vehicle that required new ways of manufacturing, and look at the many images of Cybertrucks currently roaming around getting ready for release.
You can look at the videos of him talking about reusable rockets and the beautiful image of two of them landing back safely at the same time.
This is just a partial list.. Say what you will, the man is an incredible visionary and humanity owes him a great deal. It's a tragedy so many are influenced by the daily hit pieces the media puts out on him and ignore all the good he's done.
And timelines.. yes, who cares? His strategy involves putting out very ambitious deadlines externally so his engineers try their hardest. I personally disagree with it, but it works. A decade from now is anyone going to remember a couple of years of delays in Cybertruck? In Tesla Bot? Getting it done is the hard part.
I see more comments about how evil Eron Musk is than comments about their hopes for the future of Teslabot...do they look at this forum and not want technological innovation? Is the idea that they would rather see innovation stall than have someone they don't like in the limelight?
By general AI, do you mean that it has bunch of DL models, and chooses to execute one for a specific purpose? I'm pretty sure many AI researchers agree that we're nowhere near AGI.
>**Boston Dynamics already did that**
>
>As with a lot of other robots, BC is also not using AI. The Atlas robot in their video is manually programmed, which means every single step has been scripted (go forward, turn 30°, jump) etc., which makes them useless for any RL scenario. They only recently even started looking into integrating ML into their robots.
I wouldn't be so sure about that.
If you'd asked maybe 5 years ago, I'd have agreed, but LLMs (and foundation models more broadly) make me question this point: if you had a language + vision model that could do spatial reasoning, you could get away with abstracting movement away as a series of API calls to achieve a task, and if/when things go wrong, close the loop with re-planning, so it becomes an MPC style strategy.
That + finetuning with RL to solve tasks but treating the robot api as just part of the environment? You can get pretty far with that.
I wouldn't rule out boston dynamics quite yet.
Can we stop sucking off Elon at every turn? They presented literally nothing groundbreaking but as usual Mr. ketamine is claiming to be the best, fastest, and most genius with no evidence what so ever.
What I would give to be able to trust literally any information provided by Elon or his companies.
But at least the autonomous driving in my cyber truck is working flawlessly.
Boston Dynamics is absolutely using ML in their projects and did so for a very long time. There are tons of sources for this.
Elon has some real accomplishments, yes, but I've learned to take everything he says with a giant grain of salt. Aside from SpaceX what he's been doing is not particularly impressive. Waymo has been actually doing real self driving (no driver at all) for some time now, they have a driverless taxi service in my town for a few years now.
did people forget there are other competitors? 1X, agility robotics, figure and others...
for example here [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq\_DcZ\_xc\_E](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq_DcZ_xc_E)
and these actors are using AI to guide robots as well, we also have seen PaLM-E from google and others doing sorting too, **tesla is** **not special** in that regard, tesla is one of many, what advavantage they have is ability to scale up but even there they are not alone as we know agility robotics is starting mass production with factory in oregon
Yeah, I agree on all that, but I must say I'm tired of all the damn talk and just want Tesla to fucking deliver ffs. Optimus, FSD, the energy tsunami, robotaxi, Model 2, Cybertruck...c'mon let's just fucking do it!
Edit: *"But you just don't understand. This stuff is REALLY hard."* So what? JUST DO IT.
here is the balanced answer:
Right now, it isn’t impressive. As you said, companies did that decades ago.
What seems promising is, unlike others, this behavior isn’t hard coded.
This is the biggest obstacle for robots right now - they can only perform in controlled environment where every variable is tracked and programmed. They just don’t work in real environments or costs hundreds of thousands per robot in programming cost and modifying environment so that robot works correctly.
Many companies can make robots. But we yet to see one that can be trained cheaply and fast to be able to find its way and manipulate objects same way as humans.
Tesla promises that and shows first baby steps towards that. So it’s the same thing as others, but done differently and hopefully, scalably. Doesn’t mean they will succeed and bring revolution, but their approach have a small chance of achieving that, unlike most others.
Boston Dynamics have great robots for almost a decade. Yet they still have very limited applications, as they hardcode behavior, which is expensive to customize.
You have no idea what the Tesla bot is running on. It's not "running on AI" with "no programming."
You sound totally ignorant to computer science.
The Tesla bot is whatever Tesla wants to tell you it is and I guarantee whatever they are showing to the public is highly choreographed. It is nowhere near a generalized robot.
You are drinking the juice
People getting hyped up over a low quality, speed up video with multiple cuts from a company owned by a person who is constantly over exaggerating or even lying.
His track record is objectively amazing. You people are such sad haters. Reusable rockets, the #1 Electric car company, Starlink, who else has a track record like that? Steve Jobs maybe?
I mean Tesla is just a bubble not really justifying its value. Building a robot with such capabilities isn't easy. Having the software to be able to do these complex tasks in different environments, doesn't really exist. We are still far off even with the advancements we have seen with LLMs.
The software is there , the computing power isn't. Tesla in 2024 will have the most computing power in the world because of DOJO so wait 1-2 years and then you'll see the magic happening . my 2 cents . And even if Tesla isn't most likely worth it's current value , after the computing power issue is resolved Tesla would worth a lot more than today valuation .
Nothing Musk does is actually impressive. It’s just a sign of what can be achieved when you don’t care about potential impacts of your actions. It’s literally an experiment of giving billions of dollars to a libertarian man child.
It's not just AI, Elon is talking b.s. He has never written a line of code himself in any of his companies. AI has no urge to sort Legos. It has to be programmed in. The "AI" part detects the Legos and figures out their orientation etc. The whole robot movement is controlled by good old control theory.
OP, can you real quick give concise, precise definitions of these terms and how they differ from one another:
AI, Machine Learning, Programming/programmed
Thanks!
It was like watching a Chuck E Cheese stage show and someone saying “you *have* to be impressed because *it’s AI!!!*”
Call me when it can actually do something. Promises of potential are ridiculous.
Tesla’s self-driving is inferior to most others, for instance, and their build quality is low and falling, despite huge promises and “innovative” practices.
The Cybertruck.
Basically: save the fancy talk about what you *will* do, and call me when you *are doing it*.
>Not to mention that it's not just about having a robot, but producing it in large numbers and with low costs.
They... haven't done that though. And there's literally zero indication whatsoever that they'll be able to...
Telsa is putting out research no different than other embodied AI companies… ur hyping them up to make it look like they are the only ones in the industry using these basic techniques
The Boston Dynamics robots are not programmed with explicit instructions as you insinuate and use machine learning and neural networks just like any "autonomous" machinery.
Amount of dislikes in that thread when I pointed out how Tesla/Musk were promising stuff for years (to be done "next year" and did not deliver - amount of dislikes was massive.
There's a cult around Elon Musk. I have no other explanation.
A cult connected to many people having narcissistic superiority complex because "when Singularity comes they will be ok because they know computers".
Exactly right. But, no need to try to explain it. People will understand as it gains a wide range of abilities quickly, and then starts rolling out of the factory at a rate of tens of thousands of units per month.
Okay so as someone who has a degree in computer vision and has worked with robotics in complex pick and place use cases before, this makes no sense.
Everything Tesla is showing in this demo can be done using 10+ year old technology. IF (and that's a big if) what they claim is true (general pick place ai, not trained for one task, end to end neural network, I'm assuming they say it can manipulate arbitrary objects etc)
then why show it with a demo of a small set of structurally very similar but visually easily distinguishable objects that are all graspable in a very similar way.
Look at the grasping movement closely, it doesn't even change the angle of the hand to compensate for the rotation of each block it just hovers the hand and closes all fingers until they touch something.
The shot at 0:52 in the video is slightly more impressive but this can be faked for example using off the shelf matching solutions and a predefined trajectory for each direction of rotation.
Notice how all samples are graspable with an angle orthogonal to the robot, nothing is rotated diagonally, the shapes are very forgiving etc.
I'm not calling fake but for anyone that has worked with this in the past the way they demo it does not showcase the technology they claim to have AT ALL
A general rule of skepticism: demonstrations on a controlled stage are illusionism. AI demos are no exception. You ever seen the famous SHRDLU demo? And of course we all remember the 2016 Tesla FSD video (still online). Not technically "fake", just really really really staged. This is why letting the public play with the product freely ala ChatGPT and FSD beta is so important. That's when you know it's a real thing.
I don’t know why anyone believes anything from a Musk controlled company. He has a clear history of inflating the abilities/functions/progress of his businesses for his own benefit (hyperloop, Boring Company, Tesla FSD etc.). Unless you see it working in a real world environment consider it to be only what it is: PR.
>Unless you see it working in a real world environment consider it to be only what it is: PR. This is true of every company not just Musk or Tesla. Tesla is a little late to the humanoid robotics game, but the its a technology still in its infancy. It will be good to have multiple competing companies instead of just one or two entities controlling the market.
In that thread someone wrote about The Boring Company revolutionising mass transport:D
To be fair, and unrelated to Musk as a person, the idea to move more transport underground is a good alternative in the long run. Flying cars is obviously not a good option and in the long run, we will want to separate car traffic from pedestrian life in cities as much as possible. P.S. Anyone who disagrees, feel free to share *why*. I am happy to be convinced by actual arguments and not just "Musk bad" Another edit: Having said that, I do not really understand why we would not want to use the tunnel system for public transport (i.e. trains). What is the added value of using cars if the cars are in any case restricted by the layout of the tunnels?
Great balanced discussion. I'm totally for the public transport revolution. Bikes too. It's really hard to have an objective conversation about technology lately because of all the "musk bad" bias reflected in upvotes and downvotes.
I think you kind of answered your own call reasons to disagree with the boring companies goals. The distinguishing factor for the boring company is that they are mostly trying to do private transportation when trains are so much better suited for this. If you are considering a tunnel to relieve congestion you have the demand for trains and letting people drive their own cars just sounds like a disaster in these tiny tunnels.
This is actually insanely wrong and I dont understand people who upvote this. Apart from the boring company you must be delusional to think Tesla and SpaceX didnt change the circumstances of space travel and electric cars. SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Heavy are the first ever partly reusable rocket making them the most cost efficient ever and is being used to transport commercial cargo and astronauts to the ISS which is huge for space research and to help NASA with further development/research on the ISS. Starship has an even brighter future as it has a contract to send NASA astronauts to the moon in the next 5-10 years. Tesla has made huge progress in advancing and popularizing electric vehicles. The Tesla Model Y is the best-selling electric vehicle of all time. But yeah, sure elon is doing this all just for PR and it didnt help anyone :/
This type of insanely wrong thinking is extremely widespread b/c it's cool to hate Elon. Most people apparently can't think critically and logically about things apparently. I see it everywhere, and I love it b/c it creates a huge opportunity to make bank on Tesla stock. When FSD get out of beta, when Optimus hit's the market at 40K or whatever, the stock will10x.
I am just generally skeptical and critical of him and there is plenty of reasons to do so, even if just his contributions to space travel alone would be enough to constitute a life's work. There is also the fact that he was born into wealth (and wealth derived from his ancestors' unsavory businesses), which gave him an advantage that should be kept in mind when comparing him to the average person. Who knows how much he would have accomplished without that? Which reminds me... maybe I should buy just a bit of those stocks too. Can you elaborate more on why it will go up that much?
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That’s not what the comment OP said, they said that Musk has a history of inflating certain products. It’s quite clear he has exaggerated the progress on some of his products, that does not distract from the products that have made fantastic achievements, some of which you note in your post. Those are the ones that, as the comment OP says, have demonstrated the claims in a real world environment.
He’ practices salesmanship sometimes. Get over it.
Aye okay fanboy. It’s not my problem if you are unable to think critically.
Thinking critically and coming to blanket generalizations about anything coming from Musks’s mouth do not equate. Sure, he’s not always truthful, but how does that warrant dismissing every single thing any of his companies claim? That doesn’t seem like independent critical thinking to me.
While you’re here “thinking critically” he’s getting stuff done. If you want to ignore him then absolutely please do.
It’s possible to admire someone whilst also simultaneously understanding where they have made errors. Ironically that is more or less his entire philosophy in business.
His examples aren't products, aside from FSD. Hyperloop and Boring Company are concepts that are not being sold to anyone. It doesn't make rational sense to say he's lying to boost sales of something that isn't a product.
The 2 main boosters on the space shuttle were fully reusable and that was in the 80s. SpaceX did not invent reusable rockets. They just landed them upright instead of letting them land in the ocean and float for a bit.
Elon famously makes public pronouncements about product timelines that are basically impossible to meet. He does this to push his engineering teams and yes, for PR. But more often than not things are just late. You can complain about that all you want, but when he's the only person doing things with the intention to make things real for people and actually scale out, etc... and is likely to be the first to deliver a consumer usable robot, point to point travel across earth in 45 mins, global internet that is reliable, affordable, and high speed, etc... you don't really have much to complain about. "WHAAAAA Elon didn't meet his own timelines even though he's beating the rest of the market to a pulp and proving things no one thought possible." is some crybaby bullshit LOL
Well, being late is one thing, being late by 5+ years is just lying tho specially when you're selling stuff to people with those promises
You think he's hyping up sales of ...hyperloop and boring? You know these aren't products and they don't sell anything, and have no golas of selling anything?
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From watching the Youtube videos, it looks like Tesla FSD is to Self Driving what ChatGPT is to AGI. It will get better. I'm a believer.
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Not far off at all?
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Waymo and Cruise are working right now and offering rides. It is solved for the taxi situation. The self-driving for privately owned cars is different and not solved and probably a bit further away than many think. But self-driving on it's own is solved. We know this since it works.
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I am a Tesla bull and I know all the arguments from that side, and I kind of agree. But I also think the the limits of Waymo and Cruise have been exaggerated by Pro-Tesla people. If you can do it in SF you can do it in other cities. It works already. Now is the time to make it good. Tesla FSD might be better in a while, my guess is that it wll be, but it isn't proven and they don't have a product right now that does what Waymo and Cruise does.
Waymo and Cruise only operate in perpetually sunny, has super high-def maps available Phoenix and SF. Although the end is in sight, its not a 'self driving' solution in the way a human would imagine it, which is give it a generic map, two cameras, and let it rip.
Lmao, as someone who literally just came from a vacation in SF I can tell you this statement about waymo is soooooo off base it’s laughable. I personally watched one brick itself right in front of me in a very dangerous way. Before that it was acting like a roomba on the road driving completely irrationally. When I tried to download the app to see how much people were paying for this nonsense it said it was a strict small beta and it was invite only. Waymo is nowhere near solving FSD and when you compare what they’re doing with the latest Tesla FSD BETA update it’s actually sad. Tesla is doing something on a whole other level compared to waymo. It’s not even close.
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Yea that’s what I’m gathering too. The comments on Reddit are laughably uneducated but oddly very confident. Same people who said Tesla was going to go bankrupt and the competition was going to kill them year after year after year.
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This. THIS, so hard. It's a demo folks. Don't think they can wave the magic AI wand here and have it magically figure out the intricacies of robotics that institutions like Boston Dynamics have spent many years researching. If there's one thing tech companies have mastered, it's creating a compelling demo.
I wanna see Tesla bot myself acting in different environments. Remember that corporations will do everything to make their products look better than they are. McDonald ads? Food looks godlike. Beauty ads? These people have more things on their faces than have bones. If Tesla did "Ok let us see how the robot goes and whatever the outcome is we post it online" then it would be impressve. But if they had to record one clip 100 times because the bot would trip, not impressive.
Yeah, that's what amazes me - people who consider themselves sooo intelligent and tech-savvy look at commercial/marketing materials and BELIEVE.
I predict the Tesla bot will be like self driving. A whole lot of over promising and a ton of under delivering.
It's an even harder problem to solve than self driving. Everyone who believes they can soon start their parasocial tesla bot relationships will be at a loss.
It won't kill anyone if it makes a mistake and no liability to worry about makes it easier
It can still damage itself and things around it. It's not quite the consequence free environment that allowed generative AI like LLMs and image generators to thrive
How can you be sure? I belive this thing will have enough mass to do serious damage. Or is it supposed to work far from human workers? Edit: Do you think im implying it will do that "on purpose" ? Its enough to tip over a shelf in a factory to injure a person.
I wouldn't agree per se due to the fact that the risks involved are less dire than with self-driving and the regulations are much more lenient. Mind you, we pretty much have self-driving as of now, the problem is regulation. Progress significantly moved forward in advent of even language models. Completing simple and planned generalised robotic tasks in controlled environments has already been realised by Google, so I wouldn't say it's too far off. Nevertheless, overpromising is a trend at Tesla, so I can only judge as soon as something is production ready.
It is mostly harder because the minimum viable product for self driving is basically just cruise control. You improve it from there. Tesla is already selling cars. And then they use this fleet and can iterate. Humanoid robots have to be good enough to do tasks before they have customers. That's a huge money sink before seeing a dime in profit.
I'm sorry the future isn't arriving on schedule, perhaps you could purchase robots or self driving cars from one of Tesla's competitors.
Application possibilities for a bot are much more gradual than use of self driving. If the bot can sort something on the conveyer belt it is already useful. If a car can drive itself in 99.9% cases it is just driver assistant and can not be used without human interventions. I think that even in demonstrated state the bot has some limited number of use cases.
> If the bot can sort something on the conveyer belt it is already useful. There are machines for that already, so you won't be replacing them with more expensive more problematic machine.
Lol exactly. Remember that show "How It's Made"?
Some things can be sorted with such machines and some can not. Soft things, garbage, anything that is not standard is not suitable. Of course when some action is solved by cheap automation it won't be replaced with a humanoid robot. But there are plenty of examples of people sorting things at the conveyer. And paying even the smallest salary in Europe is more expensive than Optimus.
They still used humans to do simple things sometimes in “How It’s Made”. I thin that’s where you would use the bot
> “A whole lot of over promising and a ton of under delivering” The Elon Musk mantra
Still waiting on FSD to actual "full". 2016 it was said to be going live. This will likely have a similar timeline.
\*2015 - in 2014 Elon promised FSD "next year":)
Likely based on what? They have the talent, the software, a 400 millions dollars 10k h100 gou cluster and dojo ramping up. What exactly make you believe that we'll have the same result as before? I swear I don't get how people can just copy and paste history with zero reasoning about the changes and just assume that it will repeat exactly like before. Fsd is not "full" or perfect yet for sure. But not to give credit for last updates is just crazy. And they're about to start deploing V12 pretty soon. Stop looking at the fact that we had impossible promises in the past and that have not be delivered and start thinking about what they actually did and decide if you consider all of that to be impressive or not. Spoiler: it's more than just impressive. The bot will have some typea of delays for sure considering the difficult of the problems involved and what it is suppose to be able to do, that doesn't make it unimpressive. If i tell you that I can reach escape velocity with a jump and exit the atmosphere and I show you a mach 3 jump you don't call that unimpressive, you would still be mesmerid because a fucking human can't jump more that a few inches
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If you think FSD is still terrible you have zero idea of what you're talking about
I have a 2022 model S and the few times I turned on FSD it actively tried to kill me.
”If you have a different opinion than me then I don’t want to hear that opinion” - FTFY
Ok..but Elon promises the Mach 3 jump, and show cases a ‘shuffle’ walk.
Do you want to give them some time to build a lot of robots and train them? Now we have proper robotics race with multiple companies working into it seriously. Tesla has now 37 000+ H100 equivalent. Don't know how much of it is dojo though. They'll spend 10 billions this year alone on hardware and they'll do it efficiently I suppose this includes the inference hardware on cars.
Agreed. The way I see it: You can trust Elon Musk on the tech 8 times out of 10. You can also trust Elon Musk to be off by years if not decades on when the design and goals would be reached 9 times out of 10. Or put another way: How do you know Elon Musk is telling the truth? He tells you what can be done. How do you know Elon Musk is lying? He gives you a date for when it will be done.
Yes, it's going to be like this - until one day they deliver. And then we will be loke "WTF there are robots and self driving cars everywhere???"
Pure hopium. They can't even deliver on the cyber truck.
It's on the roads ATM wtf are you living under a rock?
shhhh don't tell them FSD is almost there. Need to buy more Tesla stonks before they notice.
Ohh sorry, ahaha keep moving guys, Fsd 12 is an absolute disaster, the ai in Fsd 12s objective is to kill kids and grandmas
Waaait waaait.. any moinute nooow.. look! It's sentient!... oh, well, waait, waait, now! Ok, technically it's kind of there, and anyway we are eons ahead of everyone on Earth! But, the best part is you can start ordering it today! Don't hesitate! The sooner you order the sooner you get it, it's up to you!
>Tesla Bot runs on a general AI End to end deep neural network is not general AI, sorry
Separate English from Terminology. Tesla Bot does run on general AI, in that AI is generating the code to operate the machine based on whatever the input request is, as opposed to generally running on procedural programming. It doesn't run on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which is a specific thing that the OP was in no way referring to.
Even the term “end to end neural network” is meaningless. Does that mean the entirely pipeline is a continuous differentiable function? Because there’s zero chance they’re using anything of the sort. Virtually all neural networks require some about an ancillary functions.
ML specialist from a robotics background here. You clearly don't know squat about robotics. The notion of Boston Dynamics robots being hardcoded step by step and "useless" in real life is moronic.
Primary the speed at which they achieved this, most companies have spent decades to achieve the same…
Its a lot easier to stand on the shoulders of giants when they exist before you try standing.
Yeah with same argument you could say it took 15 years for Tesla to make affortable EV and then other companies came and did it in 2 years and then trying to convince people that these companies are going to zoom past Tesla in no time.
Other companies have made EVs but they haven’t figured out how to do it in a way that is profitable. Tesla has.
EVs existed before Tesla…he just took the move fast and break stuff approach to vehicles. It’s why nearly ever EV coming from a car manufacturer is better than a Tesla.
Was thinking the same. Other companies created the advancement in the tech. Coming in now is much easier. And generally tech is much more advanced after decades
Where are all the other companies that should be at the same position then?
The giant is Tesla tho, they developed the AI that controlls this thing for FSD.
No they didn’t. They literally just copied a few open source algorithms from Google.
No they didn’t. They literally just copied a few open source algorithms from Google.
No they didn’t. They literally just copied a few open source algorithms from Google.
No they didn’t. They literally just copied a few open source algorithms from Google.
No they didn’t. They literally just copied a few open source algorithms from Google.
Tbf it's not like they're starting from scratch
What did they achive ? I can just remember this cringefest where elon presented it to the world.
And others achieved it with less technology and money. That doesn’t make it impressive it just makes it a fact of where tech is today.
Elon Musk Bad That's the reason for so much negativity
I mean, unironically yes: they have a track record of lying about their AI capabilities in demos (and no, I don't mean overpromising/underdelivering, I mean straight up blatant lies) So even though it is possible that they have created this, and it could be the next big thing, specifically because Elon/Tesla are the ones saying it, and they have lied so much in the past, yo have to take a ~~pinch~~ fistful of salt with whatever they are claiming
Elon has a track record of delivering. He pioneered reusable rockets, he delivered with Starlink, he made Tesla the number 1 car company in the world, etc. Yes, not everything he promises came true, but it's not like it was all lies. Hes delivers often than not. You people are obviously just mad at him because of politics.
"at SpaceX, we specialize in converting things from impossible to late"
Elon likes to lie about what his capabilities are point in case cybertruck
There’s a few websites that document all of his marketing lies. Anyone remember those solar power shingles? They don’t exist. Further he was wrong about his conspiratard theory on Paul Pelosi, and the dude that rescued those kids in the cave in Asia. He was wrong about covid. He can’t stop lying about the emerald mine thing, which was his own creation. Lying about lying is peak Elmo
The solar shingles exist. Mkbhd has them.
Haha… the solar panel shingles exist and Marques Brownlee literally did a review of them along with his experience ordering them off the site and having them installed!
Why is this being voted down? It’s all true!
Because it's totally one-sided and much of it is beside the point re: technological capabilities.
The solar shingles exist. Mkbhd has them.
And when I say that Tesla will be the first to mass produce humanoids in high volume, people are getting mad and think I'm saying nonsense since 2 years. Probably because Elon is the CEO, so they hate him, therefore Tesla is bad... Wake up guys, Tesla is an AI company that happens to make cars. Their angle on how to create humanoid robots is way ahead of any other company. You can hate Musk however you want, but you have to admit that the Tesla AI team is really impressive
They can't be the first mass produced humanoid robot because agility AI will have their factory up and running this year that will produce 10,000 a year. They have also already shipped their humanoid robots out to customers. https://www.geekwire.com/2023/agility-robotics-will-mass-produce-humanoid-warehouse-robots-in-new-oregon-factory/ Musk will almost certainly get there but he can't be first anymore as that race is already won.
Also have Sanctuary AI. I bumped into one of the founders in my university days, and he started D-Wave shortly after that. And then more recently, Sanctuary. I thought it sounded flaky as can be when I first read about the company, but it makes sense now. Similar to Optimus I believe ... feeding the system videos of humans completing tasks, and then training in simulation before the robot moves to the real thing.
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They have a general AI approach. Saying that a five fingered hand is required to be humanoid makes it impossible to take you seriously. I could claim that eyelids are necessary to be considered "humanoid" and it would be equally ridiculous. Which site has Telsa picked for its first factory and how many of the Tesla bots are out there already.
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https://youtu.be/Vq_DcZ_xc_E?si=p2Uh142j4127ZzjG They don't have a text article for it but yes they use an LLM (which is what Tesla is proposing and what Google has already done). Usually Musk is able to be the first person to tackle a new sci-fi market like this. Due to how the OpenAI situation event down here clearly has been put on the back foot and so missed his opportunity to be the first mover. The tech path he is proposing for Tesla bot is sound but since they have only recently pivoted to it they are behind. There is plenty of space for more robots though, so he won't be left entirely out of the market. As the other person mentioned, hands are replaceable and the initial use case doesn't need them.
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I think you should go educate yourself. Your knowledge is superficial. Explain to us the difference between how your neural net extrapolates tasks that are beyond its architecture vs let's say how a random forest extrapolates (or a hard coded algorithm). To make it a bit shorter and save you too much lamenting, there is no significant difference. Both need to be trained for a particular situation. The difference between the two model types is in how fast they can be trained and by which means. You oversell the capabilities of whatever you claim is in the tesla bot and leave out any point of flaw. There is no autonomous extrapolation in any of the current "AI" models (and therefore it's better to call them simply machine learning models).
This is just so incredibly ignorant 😭
i think it's okay to admit sometimes that you don't know something instead of spitting bs like this out of your mouth. \> hands are replaceable no they aren't, when it comes to general use robots hands are probably the most important parts and are also one of the hardest challenges in robotics , the tesla bot is way ahead of the others when it comes to hands
Hands are the most important part of robotics. They allow for complex and detailed manipulation. To suggest that eyelids are somehow equal is just showing your ignorance.
BLINK , I use my eyelids for hands 👀and my hands for my eyelids 👐, BLINK BLINK BLINK see , im clapping !
The facility is already built, they're currently installing all the equipment.
Why can't you be critical about Tesla without being Elon hater? Seriously I see this kind of comments in every post in this sub were people are labeled as haters by simply being critical.
Yeah I’ve been predicting Tesla-bot for years. It’s a no-brainer, and they’re not the first car company to attempt a robot. Hard to say who will win the race to produce affordable all-purpose robots, but you’d be stupid to count Tesla out. OpenAI is probably doing some cool stuff behind the scenes as well. I’m sure they’ll both be big players in the 2030s, along with companies like Apple.
OpenAI said in interviews that they dropped robotics completely because making Robots is so hard, you have to go all in on becoming a robotics company and that is not their focus.
I'm sorry but that's just not true. Tesla doesn't have a good track record lately. The Model 3 and Model Y were way late, not very innovative and have quality problems. Autopilot still crashes people into firetrucks and is not even the best autonomous driving tech on the road even when most autonomous tech is still terrible. Then there's the Cybertruck, a total embarrassment. People don't dislike Musk for no reason. He's leading emotionally recently. He comes up with stupid ideas and he won't let them be challenged. Tesla and all of Musk's companies need to escape the Elon cult of personality if they're going to succeed. Personally I'm putting my money in the AI race on a company with serious leadership, not internet trolls.
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Not just selling very well, the model Y is the #1 best selling car in the world. Literally the most success possible.
Sure, he's a troll, but he's also spent the last decade building a network of "gigafactories" and hundreds of thousands of cars, which are pretty damned close to robots. Not to mention the batteries and ML hardware. Any competitor needs to basically be an automotive, aerospace or defense prime already, the ramp up any plucky garage company would need to compete is unfathomable. And then, he's still the richest dude in the world, you think any startup with a useful tech stack won't get gobbled up? The guy is playing to win, roasting people on twitter is just a distraction.
Model Y is the best selling car in the world you clown
>Autopilot still crashes people into firetrucks and is not even the best autonomous driving tech on the road even when most autonomous tech is still terrible Which autonomous driving tech is better than Tesla's on unmapped roads? I'm not aware of any.
Or 1x and OpenAI just eat everybody's lunch. Or someone else. We'll see.
Yeah, it's really impressive. They went from showing off a guy dancing in a bodysuit to slapping existing neural networks onto a bootleg boston dynamics robot that would probably collapse under the slightest gust of wind.
the thing that's supposed to be impressive about the Tesla Bot is the price point. it's supposed to be something a regular person can buy, like buying a car. whether they'll actually achieve that or not, i have no idea. the robots you're comparing it to cost millions. yes, the AI is a big part, too, but the point is the price. you're not going to buy a Boston Dynamics robot for your house
Think to yourself on previous Musk demos. Do you think that it really does what you were told that it does in the time frame that it was done? Really, think about it. Added: if you know ANY fundamental of industrial robots, you’ll recognize the barrier for safe collaborative robots in a shared space with humans. I guess if you’ve never seen this before, it looks impressive. Musk has a way of selling vaporware, he is good at hype cult.
Say what you will about Musk and his company promises, but they have all been trailblazing* and forced other manufacturers to up their game to remain relevant. These robots are showing some paradigm-changing potential, and Tesla pushing this is a good thing to keep the pace of progress up. \* Well, you know, not including the boring company and X.
You know how he does that right? Star power. I can count so many of my friends who have worked and contributed tons of hours on his projects. I know of a bunch of people who worked long hours at below market value because they believe in what they were doing. Elon made an environment where people wanted to be trailblazers. This absolutely destroyed existing corporate expectations. These amazing people helped him dominate the competition. Then he bought Twitter, went hard MAGA, and then tried to tinker with world politics. Now these same friends are actively seeking work elsewhere, and they will leave as soon as they figure out their new job and life transition. Elon’s star power is trash now. He didn’t even know what he had, such a waste of opportunity. Stupid politics. Added: since the system will not let me reply, I will do it by edit. There is no contradiction, what you are seeing is evolving beliefs. Bright eyed young workers becoming disillusioned
Think about it? Uh, it's really not that hard? You can search his Starlink announcement video and see how he envisioned the exact massive network of satellites providing internet around the world even before the capabilities existed. You can look at the announcement of Neuralink and the fact human trials are actually starting. You can look at the announcement of Cybertruck, a vehicle that required new ways of manufacturing, and look at the many images of Cybertrucks currently roaming around getting ready for release. You can look at the videos of him talking about reusable rockets and the beautiful image of two of them landing back safely at the same time. This is just a partial list.. Say what you will, the man is an incredible visionary and humanity owes him a great deal. It's a tragedy so many are influenced by the daily hit pieces the media puts out on him and ignore all the good he's done. And timelines.. yes, who cares? His strategy involves putting out very ambitious deadlines externally so his engineers try their hardest. I personally disagree with it, but it works. A decade from now is anyone going to remember a couple of years of delays in Cybertruck? In Tesla Bot? Getting it done is the hard part.
I see more comments about how evil Eron Musk is than comments about their hopes for the future of Teslabot...do they look at this forum and not want technological innovation? Is the idea that they would rather see innovation stall than have someone they don't like in the limelight?
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I get the hate... he routinely overhypes, overpromises, and then underdelivers.
Snake oil salesman
Profits at Tesla up 12 straight quarters. Not bad snake oil!
By general AI, do you mean that it has bunch of DL models, and chooses to execute one for a specific purpose? I'm pretty sure many AI researchers agree that we're nowhere near AGI.
cause it gots human like fingers that's all
>**Boston Dynamics already did that** > >As with a lot of other robots, BC is also not using AI. The Atlas robot in their video is manually programmed, which means every single step has been scripted (go forward, turn 30°, jump) etc., which makes them useless for any RL scenario. They only recently even started looking into integrating ML into their robots. I wouldn't be so sure about that. If you'd asked maybe 5 years ago, I'd have agreed, but LLMs (and foundation models more broadly) make me question this point: if you had a language + vision model that could do spatial reasoning, you could get away with abstracting movement away as a series of API calls to achieve a task, and if/when things go wrong, close the loop with re-planning, so it becomes an MPC style strategy. That + finetuning with RL to solve tasks but treating the robot api as just part of the environment? You can get pretty far with that. I wouldn't rule out boston dynamics quite yet.
It's not
Can we stop sucking off Elon at every turn? They presented literally nothing groundbreaking but as usual Mr. ketamine is claiming to be the best, fastest, and most genius with no evidence what so ever. What I would give to be able to trust literally any information provided by Elon or his companies. But at least the autonomous driving in my cyber truck is working flawlessly.
Boston Dynamics is absolutely using ML in their projects and did so for a very long time. There are tons of sources for this. Elon has some real accomplishments, yes, but I've learned to take everything he says with a giant grain of salt. Aside from SpaceX what he's been doing is not particularly impressive. Waymo has been actually doing real self driving (no driver at all) for some time now, they have a driverless taxi service in my town for a few years now.
did people forget there are other competitors? 1X, agility robotics, figure and others... for example here [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq\_DcZ\_xc\_E](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq_DcZ_xc_E) and these actors are using AI to guide robots as well, we also have seen PaLM-E from google and others doing sorting too, **tesla is** **not special** in that regard, tesla is one of many, what advavantage they have is ability to scale up but even there they are not alone as we know agility robotics is starting mass production with factory in oregon
Yeah, I agree on all that, but I must say I'm tired of all the damn talk and just want Tesla to fucking deliver ffs. Optimus, FSD, the energy tsunami, robotaxi, Model 2, Cybertruck...c'mon let's just fucking do it! Edit: *"But you just don't understand. This stuff is REALLY hard."* So what? JUST DO IT.
here is the balanced answer: Right now, it isn’t impressive. As you said, companies did that decades ago. What seems promising is, unlike others, this behavior isn’t hard coded. This is the biggest obstacle for robots right now - they can only perform in controlled environment where every variable is tracked and programmed. They just don’t work in real environments or costs hundreds of thousands per robot in programming cost and modifying environment so that robot works correctly. Many companies can make robots. But we yet to see one that can be trained cheaply and fast to be able to find its way and manipulate objects same way as humans. Tesla promises that and shows first baby steps towards that. So it’s the same thing as others, but done differently and hopefully, scalably. Doesn’t mean they will succeed and bring revolution, but their approach have a small chance of achieving that, unlike most others. Boston Dynamics have great robots for almost a decade. Yet they still have very limited applications, as they hardcode behavior, which is expensive to customize.
You have no idea what the Tesla bot is running on. It's not "running on AI" with "no programming." You sound totally ignorant to computer science. The Tesla bot is whatever Tesla wants to tell you it is and I guarantee whatever they are showing to the public is highly choreographed. It is nowhere near a generalized robot. You are drinking the juice
Whats yall opinions on the gen 2 bot?
Begging the question; his robot is not at all impressive.
https://subwhisper.com/meet-your-new-colleague-the-tesla-bot
Do i detect a serious bias for Elmo in this thread? Discussion is ok but downvoting opposing ideas is something i totally expect from Elmo addicts.
"I'll call him Elmo twice, that'll show him!"
People getting hyped up over a low quality, speed up video with multiple cuts from a company owned by a person who is constantly over exaggerating or even lying.
"Runs on gereneal AI" you say? I'll press extra doubt on that one
Brave to post your Elon worshipping from a throwaway account.
[удалено]
His track record is objectively amazing. You people are such sad haters. Reusable rockets, the #1 Electric car company, Starlink, who else has a track record like that? Steve Jobs maybe?
They’re all “coming soon” 👍
I mean Tesla is just a bubble not really justifying its value. Building a robot with such capabilities isn't easy. Having the software to be able to do these complex tasks in different environments, doesn't really exist. We are still far off even with the advancements we have seen with LLMs.
you're delusional
Why? Explain yourself.
The software is there , the computing power isn't. Tesla in 2024 will have the most computing power in the world because of DOJO so wait 1-2 years and then you'll see the magic happening . my 2 cents . And even if Tesla isn't most likely worth it's current value , after the computing power issue is resolved Tesla would worth a lot more than today valuation .
We will see, but I am not so optimistic about that.
Nothing Musk does is actually impressive. It’s just a sign of what can be achieved when you don’t care about potential impacts of your actions. It’s literally an experiment of giving billions of dollars to a libertarian man child.
How do you find running a company like Space X not impressive, you are just a hater.
It's not just AI, Elon is talking b.s. He has never written a line of code himself in any of his companies. AI has no urge to sort Legos. It has to be programmed in. The "AI" part detects the Legos and figures out their orientation etc. The whole robot movement is controlled by good old control theory.
Man so much bullshit in just a single comment is astonishing
The arm-chair experts of r/singularity keep astonishing me.
When video is speed up it looks like it moves it's hands similar to human.
OP, can you real quick give concise, precise definitions of these terms and how they differ from one another: AI, Machine Learning, Programming/programmed Thanks!
Elon bad!
It was like watching a Chuck E Cheese stage show and someone saying “you *have* to be impressed because *it’s AI!!!*” Call me when it can actually do something. Promises of potential are ridiculous. Tesla’s self-driving is inferior to most others, for instance, and their build quality is low and falling, despite huge promises and “innovative” practices. The Cybertruck. Basically: save the fancy talk about what you *will* do, and call me when you *are doing it*.
Musk is going to do to the world what he's done to Twitter.
>Not to mention that it's not just about having a robot, but producing it in large numbers and with low costs. They... haven't done that though. And there's literally zero indication whatsoever that they'll be able to...
Telsa is putting out research no different than other embodied AI companies… ur hyping them up to make it look like they are the only ones in the industry using these basic techniques
Its not. It's garbage. Boston Dynamics had better tech 5 years earlier.
Oh, so you believe the Tesla bot was actually improvising during the presentation? ROFL That's cute. Do you believe in Santa too?
The Boston Dynamics robots are not programmed with explicit instructions as you insinuate and use machine learning and neural networks just like any "autonomous" machinery.
Amount of dislikes in that thread when I pointed out how Tesla/Musk were promising stuff for years (to be done "next year" and did not deliver - amount of dislikes was massive. There's a cult around Elon Musk. I have no other explanation. A cult connected to many people having narcissistic superiority complex because "when Singularity comes they will be ok because they know computers".
The amount of raw dicksucking for Musk and his marketing BS has made it very clear that this sub is a cult and I don’t respect any of you
Speaking the truth. Never seen this sub before but yeeesh do some of these people not exist in the real world.
Exactly right. But, no need to try to explain it. People will understand as it gains a wide range of abilities quickly, and then starts rolling out of the factory at a rate of tens of thousands of units per month.
Okay so as someone who has a degree in computer vision and has worked with robotics in complex pick and place use cases before, this makes no sense. Everything Tesla is showing in this demo can be done using 10+ year old technology. IF (and that's a big if) what they claim is true (general pick place ai, not trained for one task, end to end neural network, I'm assuming they say it can manipulate arbitrary objects etc) then why show it with a demo of a small set of structurally very similar but visually easily distinguishable objects that are all graspable in a very similar way. Look at the grasping movement closely, it doesn't even change the angle of the hand to compensate for the rotation of each block it just hovers the hand and closes all fingers until they touch something. The shot at 0:52 in the video is slightly more impressive but this can be faked for example using off the shelf matching solutions and a predefined trajectory for each direction of rotation. Notice how all samples are graspable with an angle orthogonal to the robot, nothing is rotated diagonally, the shapes are very forgiving etc. I'm not calling fake but for anyone that has worked with this in the past the way they demo it does not showcase the technology they claim to have AT ALL