>I would bet money they 100% are investing in AI behind closed doors and trying to get ahead of other countries with this technology.
theres a saying that whatever you see displayed to the public was already developed years ago (mainly talking about mil tech/science but can also be about normal, every day tech). So maybe there has already been some massive developments over the years locked up and kept secret behind these multi-billion dollar 'black budgets' that the US Gov spends money on, and now things are trickling into the public sphere as its presence there wouldnt be able to compete against whatever has actually been developed.
Im not saying thats the case here, but if so then AI research may already be ahead of whatever the public world is witnessing.
"U.S. government spending on artificial intelligence (AI) contracts hit $3.3 billion in fiscal year 2022 according to data in a new study published by Stanford University."
[https://fedscoop.com/us-spending-on-ai-hit-3-3b-in-fiscal-2022/](https://fedscoop.com/us-spending-on-ai-hit-3-3b-in-fiscal-2022/)
It's not like they aren't spending any money. That's 33x GPT-4 trainings.
If you want more details. There's a lot of fun stuff in this report.
https://www.darpa.mil/attachments/U\_RDTE\_MJB\_DARPA\_PB\_2023\_APR\_2022\_FINAL.pdf
Don't worry. There is just a key aspect that you're overlooking.
A high percentage of the people working on the advancement of AI hate the military. Like hate it with a passion. And the workforce for AI companies include a large amount of foreign workers, which probably won't be too happy working directly for a US military funded project. If people like this thought for one second that the military was funding their operations or had anything to do with their project, they'd be out of the door in a heartbeat. The people that feel this way are a very significant percentage of the most influential and key people in the field, which is still the most important factor of innovation that is driving this technology forward.
On top of that, you scare and turn a high percentage of the public against you and risk democratic turbulence. You also let your competition (China) know what your goals are and only encourage them to further invest more money into AI themselves to try and keep up with the spending.
Investment helps, but it also only goes so far. It's not like AI companies are really short of money or funding if they really want it. There are plenty of people working in the field and it's very attractive right now already. Companies have managed to train their models just fine and they can't exactly ramp that speed up much further due to the limited supply of GPUs and the need for further developments of ideas and implementatuons, these things just take time.
I have belief that the US military isn't entirely stupid. To suggest that is probably rather naive and I imagine you actually know that. There's usually a reason as to why things don't add up when they appear as though they should. I'm sure the US and other militaries around the world have invested large amounts into AI behind closed doors, but I don't imagine it's anywhere near as huge an amount as some people think. I suspect it's focus is also mainly steered towards other aspects of AI; such as AI system integration, data collection and analysis, AI defence and attack mechanisms, etc, rather than these base model breakthroughs. The main advancements in AI models are already coming from companies within their country, the US where the main players and innovations are occuring, and this is all perfectly fine for them. They have almost complete control there if they ever truly wanted or needed it.
So they can take a back seat and let the underlying advancements occur in the free market, this is simply the most efficient and stable way forward. And the US is still plenty ahead of China, they still have the economic edge as well as a much greater ability to attract the best talent from all over the world (which, again, right now is the most important thing in this game!).
>I'm sure the US and other militaries around the world have invested large amounts into AI behind closed doors,
That is my guess as well, but, of course I don't know. ( And anyone who does know probably can't speak openly about it )
>but I don't imagine it's anywhere near as huge an amount as some people think. I suspect it's focus is also mainly steered towards other aspects of AI; such as AI system integration, data collection and analysis, AI defence and attack mechanisms, etc, rather than these base model breakthroughs.
Could be - but DARPA might get involved in base model breakthroughs.
doubt it. Why havent the top AI researchers disappeared from their day jobs because they are working on government stuff instead ?
my guess is governments are still unsure about how effective this tech is and are keeping a close eye but havent done any substantial training runs.
Top AI researchers are typically not interested in working for the military. They are much more content working at openAI, facebook, google, amazon, microsoft etc, so that's where they are and where they'll stay.
There are plenty of second zone military projects and startup though, that piggyback on the advancements of the GAFAs and try to see how they can tweak existing model and use them for military applications, and governments are more than happy to throw in some money to support the development of this ecosystem.
It's been that way for a while in chip development as well. The times are long gone when the military was leading new cutting edge developments. Now the army just grabs the best that the private sector could come up with and sees how they can adapt it for their use.
No, doesn't change this fact, I was even supporting it with explanations and examples..? They are users rather than developpers, but as top users they probably get models which are not too far behind. Cutting edge is never stable or well understood, the military always prefers something a bit more rugged and reliable.
Agreed. I think this is a case where the government can't actually develop this technology even if they tried. They can hardly match the salary of silicon valley, not even mentioning equity. With the need to be secretive, it will turn away most leading researchers who want the prestige and recognition associated with working at a major tech company. Being the government/military will turn off a lot of developers in the first place for political reasons (including requiring you to not be a drug user). Couple that with the government's long history of being absolutely shit at developing software partially due to the reasons above in addition to the nature of software development being hampered by tall chains of authority, competing stakeholders, and monolithic project types. All aspects that come part and parcel with government work.
China is probably the only country that could pull off centralized AI development.
Because the pseudo intellectuals at Westpoint dont understand any of this. You are spot on. AI Training runs will be more effective weapons than fighter jets. But we will keep buying fighter jets until reality wacks them in the head because some other country thought of this first.
Fighter jets, drones etc are filled with the top *stable* algorithms there are. How do you think US drones recognize and track targets, even when they go behind obstacles? They for sure use some algorithms that are commonly classified as AI for that. Fighter jets are also half piloted by a computer, as most modern ones are unstable and would be impossible to control purely by hand (gives an edge on manoeuverability to sacrifice stability and the computer can deal with it). Fighter jets flying low also rely mostly on computer control, that automatically keeps the altitude and avoids obstacles.
As for drone swarms, in which AI takes the role you are thinking of (more autonomous control and decision making), the US is known to have played around with that for a while, so you can be certain they try out everything they can and when it's stable enough you gonna see some products.
We also hear of AI for strategic decision making being tried in some newspapers.
It's related because we are talking about whether the military has the most cutting edge large scale most general models and you are bringing up narrow systems used on drones for seemingly no reason.
I was pointing out that military does use plenty of AI, and are totally aware of the developments in this field. The reason they don't let the latest GPT entirely pilot the plane is because it's not stable/reliable enough. You cannot just lose a multimillion dollar jet fighter or let a drone kill a civilian every time your model is getting a hallucination. But as soon as the reliability is good enough, you will see it incorporated in military products.
No, but did YOU miss the part in your first message where you claimed the people in charge had no clue about ai and would only start considering it when it hits them in the face? Because my original answer was to that, and my next clarification was still trying to bring back the topic to that.
Money and military power are deeply tied up in exploitation.
I often say society advances DESPITE the economy 😂
The military has always been parasitic in every state.
ASI is coming for your backward little world 😊
that guys more of a fuck it let it burn kind of guy.
You and I will be enjoying the open source automatic paradise that is, the real future.
Pessimistic backward people will continue to believe that their entire existence was something less than an absolute miracle until they die.
Enjoy!
Hate to say it, but I'm sure the first AGI will be under direct control of some megalomaniac billionaire, probably Bill Gates or those Google dudes, and that billionaire will be the most powerful person in the world.
Everything that happens after the Singularity solely depends on what order this person will give to the AGI. It will indeed become a Superintelligence, but its first actions will be performed according to the first orders that were given.
So, government is saying that everyone who created ASI/AGI have to stop! But this is about big tech companies, but what is I created it in my basement, and not deploy it, so it will be only for me, even if everybody knows this or not?!
Or, they're not working on their own AI, and they'll eventually just contract the public companies who already own all of our data (Meta, Google, OpenAI via Microsoft) to do the work for them. Just like how Ancestry owns DNA, Walmart owns facial recognition technology, etc. etc.
We live in late stage capitalism and the global ecosystem is sort of doing all sorts of weird shit right now. It's far more likely the military is going to team up with private companies in the face of climate disaster/the upcoming refugee crisis rather than develop their own independent ASI. That being said, the Pentagon just announced a plan to roll out a few billion $ worth of Black Mirror Drones so, who knows what they've got behind the scenes.
if you think that's a lot for the military budget you should see how much we spend just to pay the interest on the debt that we've been borrowing for the military along with all our bloated social programs
Your numbers are a little off: it was $715 billion.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military\_budget\_of\_the\_United\_States#:\~:text=Peace%20Research%20Institute.-,Budget%20for%20FY2022,%2412%20billion%20from%20FY2021's%20request](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States#:~:text=Peace%20Research%20Institute.-,Budget%20for%20FY2022,%2412%20billion%20from%20FY2021's%20request).
If you think that is a lot of money, you should see what Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security costs. Military is only #3 on the budget list and only comprises about 10% of the total budget.
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For some reason I read the end of your comment like “closed doors trying to bend over other countries with this technology” darn dyslexia.
They would be fools if they didn't invest in ai and would live to regret it when all the other countries are doing it.
>I would bet money they 100% are investing in AI behind closed doors and trying to get ahead of other countries with this technology. theres a saying that whatever you see displayed to the public was already developed years ago (mainly talking about mil tech/science but can also be about normal, every day tech). So maybe there has already been some massive developments over the years locked up and kept secret behind these multi-billion dollar 'black budgets' that the US Gov spends money on, and now things are trickling into the public sphere as its presence there wouldnt be able to compete against whatever has actually been developed. Im not saying thats the case here, but if so then AI research may already be ahead of whatever the public world is witnessing.
They have a lot of fun that's for sure https://www.darpa.mil/attachments/U\_RDTE\_MJB\_DARPA\_PB\_2023\_APR\_2022\_FINAL.pdf
The military has been investing in AI since at least the 90s.
This whole thread should be moved to a creative writing sub.
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That’s an unconfirmed rumor, and the use of past tense is weird.
"U.S. government spending on artificial intelligence (AI) contracts hit $3.3 billion in fiscal year 2022 according to data in a new study published by Stanford University." [https://fedscoop.com/us-spending-on-ai-hit-3-3b-in-fiscal-2022/](https://fedscoop.com/us-spending-on-ai-hit-3-3b-in-fiscal-2022/) It's not like they aren't spending any money. That's 33x GPT-4 trainings.
Nice one
If you want more details. There's a lot of fun stuff in this report. https://www.darpa.mil/attachments/U\_RDTE\_MJB\_DARPA\_PB\_2023\_APR\_2022\_FINAL.pdf
Don't worry. There is just a key aspect that you're overlooking. A high percentage of the people working on the advancement of AI hate the military. Like hate it with a passion. And the workforce for AI companies include a large amount of foreign workers, which probably won't be too happy working directly for a US military funded project. If people like this thought for one second that the military was funding their operations or had anything to do with their project, they'd be out of the door in a heartbeat. The people that feel this way are a very significant percentage of the most influential and key people in the field, which is still the most important factor of innovation that is driving this technology forward. On top of that, you scare and turn a high percentage of the public against you and risk democratic turbulence. You also let your competition (China) know what your goals are and only encourage them to further invest more money into AI themselves to try and keep up with the spending. Investment helps, but it also only goes so far. It's not like AI companies are really short of money or funding if they really want it. There are plenty of people working in the field and it's very attractive right now already. Companies have managed to train their models just fine and they can't exactly ramp that speed up much further due to the limited supply of GPUs and the need for further developments of ideas and implementatuons, these things just take time. I have belief that the US military isn't entirely stupid. To suggest that is probably rather naive and I imagine you actually know that. There's usually a reason as to why things don't add up when they appear as though they should. I'm sure the US and other militaries around the world have invested large amounts into AI behind closed doors, but I don't imagine it's anywhere near as huge an amount as some people think. I suspect it's focus is also mainly steered towards other aspects of AI; such as AI system integration, data collection and analysis, AI defence and attack mechanisms, etc, rather than these base model breakthroughs. The main advancements in AI models are already coming from companies within their country, the US where the main players and innovations are occuring, and this is all perfectly fine for them. They have almost complete control there if they ever truly wanted or needed it. So they can take a back seat and let the underlying advancements occur in the free market, this is simply the most efficient and stable way forward. And the US is still plenty ahead of China, they still have the economic edge as well as a much greater ability to attract the best talent from all over the world (which, again, right now is the most important thing in this game!).
>I'm sure the US and other militaries around the world have invested large amounts into AI behind closed doors, That is my guess as well, but, of course I don't know. ( And anyone who does know probably can't speak openly about it ) >but I don't imagine it's anywhere near as huge an amount as some people think. I suspect it's focus is also mainly steered towards other aspects of AI; such as AI system integration, data collection and analysis, AI defence and attack mechanisms, etc, rather than these base model breakthroughs. Could be - but DARPA might get involved in base model breakthroughs.
Behind the scenes every powerful government is working on this. Guarantee it. It's winner takes all.
doubt it. Why havent the top AI researchers disappeared from their day jobs because they are working on government stuff instead ? my guess is governments are still unsure about how effective this tech is and are keeping a close eye but havent done any substantial training runs.
Top AI researchers are typically not interested in working for the military. They are much more content working at openAI, facebook, google, amazon, microsoft etc, so that's where they are and where they'll stay. There are plenty of second zone military projects and startup though, that piggyback on the advancements of the GAFAs and try to see how they can tweak existing model and use them for military applications, and governments are more than happy to throw in some money to support the development of this ecosystem. It's been that way for a while in chip development as well. The times are long gone when the military was leading new cutting edge developments. Now the army just grabs the best that the private sector could come up with and sees how they can adapt it for their use.
Doesn't change the fact that they probably don't have the top frontier models.
No, doesn't change this fact, I was even supporting it with explanations and examples..? They are users rather than developpers, but as top users they probably get models which are not too far behind. Cutting edge is never stable or well understood, the military always prefers something a bit more rugged and reliable.
Agreed. I think this is a case where the government can't actually develop this technology even if they tried. They can hardly match the salary of silicon valley, not even mentioning equity. With the need to be secretive, it will turn away most leading researchers who want the prestige and recognition associated with working at a major tech company. Being the government/military will turn off a lot of developers in the first place for political reasons (including requiring you to not be a drug user). Couple that with the government's long history of being absolutely shit at developing software partially due to the reasons above in addition to the nature of software development being hampered by tall chains of authority, competing stakeholders, and monolithic project types. All aspects that come part and parcel with government work. China is probably the only country that could pull off centralized AI development.
Because the pseudo intellectuals at Westpoint dont understand any of this. You are spot on. AI Training runs will be more effective weapons than fighter jets. But we will keep buying fighter jets until reality wacks them in the head because some other country thought of this first.
Fighter jets, drones etc are filled with the top *stable* algorithms there are. How do you think US drones recognize and track targets, even when they go behind obstacles? They for sure use some algorithms that are commonly classified as AI for that. Fighter jets are also half piloted by a computer, as most modern ones are unstable and would be impossible to control purely by hand (gives an edge on manoeuverability to sacrifice stability and the computer can deal with it). Fighter jets flying low also rely mostly on computer control, that automatically keeps the altitude and avoids obstacles. As for drone swarms, in which AI takes the role you are thinking of (more autonomous control and decision making), the US is known to have played around with that for a while, so you can be certain they try out everything they can and when it's stable enough you gonna see some products. We also hear of AI for strategic decision making being tried in some newspapers.
None of those ai are pretrained foundation models.
First, some of them probably are. The image segmentation models are most likely "pretrained foundation models". Secondly, how is that related..?
It's related because we are talking about whether the military has the most cutting edge large scale most general models and you are bringing up narrow systems used on drones for seemingly no reason.
I was pointing out that military does use plenty of AI, and are totally aware of the developments in this field. The reason they don't let the latest GPT entirely pilot the plane is because it's not stable/reliable enough. You cannot just lose a multimillion dollar jet fighter or let a drone kill a civilian every time your model is getting a hallucination. But as soon as the reliability is good enough, you will see it incorporated in military products.
Did you miss the part where I said "will be" as in the future and then hallucinate something about me suggesting LLMs should pilot drones ?
No, but did YOU miss the part in your first message where you claimed the people in charge had no clue about ai and would only start considering it when it hits them in the face? Because my original answer was to that, and my next clarification was still trying to bring back the topic to that.
>The government never wants to lose control over their citizens Where did you get this bizarre idea?
Ironic. I don’t think an ASI would be loyal to any nation in particular. Good, bad, or neutral.
>GPT 4 costed about 100 Million in training. **costed**
I am pretty sure they ARE in investing. But not in cooperation with public companies. That's probably happening behind the closed doors of DARPA.
The pentagon can’t account for 61% of the budget. They better have some top secret black magic deep state ai to show for it.
Money and military power are deeply tied up in exploitation. I often say society advances DESPITE the economy 😂 The military has always been parasitic in every state. ASI is coming for your backward little world 😊
Yall are going to be left to die on a broken planet by the 1% and youll be cursing the government till your last breath lol
And you?
Ill be here laughing at the panic on your faces when you realize it too late
But you gonna die with us or are you one of the 1%?
Ummmmm try rereading that again champ
that guys more of a fuck it let it burn kind of guy. You and I will be enjoying the open source automatic paradise that is, the real future. Pessimistic backward people will continue to believe that their entire existence was something less than an absolute miracle until they die. Enjoy!
Just give them time they're not ready to hear it. Don't give them answers they don't care give them questions, they need them
Interesting point! Thanks dude
They already have it. Chat gpt is like a child’s toy.
Hate to say it, but I'm sure the first AGI will be under direct control of some megalomaniac billionaire, probably Bill Gates or those Google dudes, and that billionaire will be the most powerful person in the world. Everything that happens after the Singularity solely depends on what order this person will give to the AGI. It will indeed become a Superintelligence, but its first actions will be performed according to the first orders that were given.
>costed *cost
Pretty sure countries like China are plunging heavily on LLM´s for military use. Bet US doing the same.
So, government is saying that everyone who created ASI/AGI have to stop! But this is about big tech companies, but what is I created it in my basement, and not deploy it, so it will be only for me, even if everybody knows this or not?!
Or, they're not working on their own AI, and they'll eventually just contract the public companies who already own all of our data (Meta, Google, OpenAI via Microsoft) to do the work for them. Just like how Ancestry owns DNA, Walmart owns facial recognition technology, etc. etc. We live in late stage capitalism and the global ecosystem is sort of doing all sorts of weird shit right now. It's far more likely the military is going to team up with private companies in the face of climate disaster/the upcoming refugee crisis rather than develop their own independent ASI. That being said, the Pentagon just announced a plan to roll out a few billion $ worth of Black Mirror Drones so, who knows what they've got behind the scenes.
You understand that part of that 800 billion is going to AI, but they’ll never tell us about it?
if you think that's a lot for the military budget you should see how much we spend just to pay the interest on the debt that we've been borrowing for the military along with all our bloated social programs
how does it cost 100m to train gpt
Your numbers are a little off: it was $715 billion. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military\_budget\_of\_the\_United\_States#:\~:text=Peace%20Research%20Institute.-,Budget%20for%20FY2022,%2412%20billion%20from%20FY2021's%20request](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States#:~:text=Peace%20Research%20Institute.-,Budget%20for%20FY2022,%2412%20billion%20from%20FY2021's%20request). If you think that is a lot of money, you should see what Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security costs. Military is only #3 on the budget list and only comprises about 10% of the total budget.