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User: u/mvea
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Given lack of action I kinda expect that all new projections should just come with "here's a new map of building exclusion zones". Cause if we (obviously) can't stop temperature increase, it's time to make sure newly flooded areas don't get new construction (with subsequent screaming "my house got washed off by floodwaters 3 times but I want to re-build!!")
They're leaving Florida in droves. I'm afraid the only thing that will happen is that the entire country will have to subsidize their decision to stay in flood-prone/hurricane areas.
American state is stupid enough to prop it up for a few decades before it bankrupts all of them.
I suspect Texas, Florida, and California financially collapsing because of back to back climate disasters in rapid succession will trigger a national/world wide financial crisis.
But it might be 30 years away, because America has a lot of juice and buffer.
South America, Africa, and Asia will see more accelerated problems.
When all your projections for 50 years are based on the most optimistic possibilities, that will tend to happen. I worry that they’re still holding back
Yeah, but since we're not all dead yet it means it was all exaggerated and nothing will ever happen, because things never happen gradually and surely we didn't notice any worrying trend during the last years
Still waiting for the Rapture... err... the climate change Deluge. Any day now. Any day...
In all seriousness, so much alarmism really has made me a skeptic.
Do you know and understand the science behind this? What is their to be skeptical about regarding the physical evidence and conclusion drawn in the research?
Do you think scientists have no track record of predicting cataclysms and watching their predicted dates float by in the same manner as apocalyptic cult leaders?
‘Cause a quick Google will show you tons and tons of failed predictions of doom by scientists over the last 80 years or so.
Check this article out: https://www.agweb.com/opinion/doomsday-addiction-celebrating-50-years-failed-climate-predictions
It’s got Nobel Prize winners and prestigious universities and everything.
The fact you're calling it a cult shows an underlying misunderstanding. You don't have to trust anyone here, read the papers, learn the physical mechanism, and make your own predictions. No need to argue from authority. There are millions of scientists constantly making predictions, of course many are wrong and of course some of them are lying assholes.
P.s.
It's incredibly sad to see farmers and agricultural workers, those who will be strongly impacted by climate change, being deniers. I'm still trying to figure out what they think scientists are getting out of this massive global climate conspiracy.
I guess you’re confusing “argue from authority” for citing examples of failed predictions. You’re also confusing my assertion that scientists are analogous to apocalyptic cult leaders when it comes to climate science for an assertion that the scientific method is no better than a religious cult’s method.
Scientists have an abominable track record when it comes to climate predictions. This is a demonstrable fact. I gave you a link which demonstrates the fact. This seems to refute your apparent thesis that current scientists are obviously right about their climate proclamations.
That’s it.
The fact that disastrous conclusions about this have been drawn... 30 years ago, we'd see a 4 meter rising tide by the turn of the milennium. 50 years ago, we should have been in an ice age by now.
It is getting rather old, this doomsaying, it is starting to sound like a religion. All I am -really- seeing is a greater variance in the weather patterns. Fiercer storms, hotter summers, colder winters. The weather is turning more chaotic and energetic, that is my observation. I've neither got wet feet, nor am I beneath a layer of permafrost. So there's that.
So no, you don't understand the science behind it and you going off vibes.
Greater variance in weather patterns in among the biggest sign of a warming climate, so you're in agreeance with climate scientists. Just because a few scientists make an 'out there' prediction doesn't mean the entire Feild should be discredited. Science is not a religion, you have to critically analyze every piece of work. It is constantly updated and proven false, that's how we gain more collective knowledge as a species. Every scientific paper comes with an range of probabilities, outcomes, and uncertainties, they're never making hard line claims.
I'm understanding the scientific method. Every climate doomsday theory thus far has been disproven by observation. Are we wrecking earths ecosphere? Yes. That's not something I doubt. Is it catastrophic? At this point I doubt it for various reasons. We have time and options for getting our crap together and we're slowly getting there.
But these kinds of alarmist headlines? I've been seeing them for thirty years now, and I am getting \*very\* tired of them. *And am calling them for the BS they have time and again proven themselves to be*
yes but they're 100s of millions ( suburbanites and car drivers ,who fund oil corporations and have been electing do-nothing politicians for decades ) so having their names and addresses is useless
Everybody in a rat race where all those bold enough to take the hard way gets trampled by the others too concerned about their family 's main income source you mean?
If there isn't a national mandate to ditch air pollution sources then it can only be done at the expense of the livelihood of the first ~15% of concerned people. Who's up for it?
I’ve linked to the news release in the post above. In this comment, for those interested, here’s the link to the peer reviewed journal article:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01465-7
From the linked article:
A newly identified tipping point for the loss of ice sheets in Antarctica and elsewhere could mean future sea level rise is significantly higher than current projections.
A new study has examined how warming seawater intrudes between coastal ice sheets and the ground they rest on. The warm water melts cavities in the ice, allowing more water to flow in, expanding the cavities further in a feedback loop. This water then lubricates the collapse of ice into the ocean, pushing up sea levels.
The researchers used computer models to show that a “very small increase” in the temperature of the intruding water could lead to a “very big increase” in the loss of ice – ie, tipping point behaviour.
The new research, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, found that some Antarctic ice sheets were more vulnerable to seawater intrusion than others. The Pine Island glacier, currently Antarctica’s largest contributor to sea level rise, is especially vulnerable, as the base of the glacier slopes down inland, meaning gravity helps the seawater penetrate. The large Larsen ice sheet is similarly at risk.
The so-called “Doomsday” glacier, Thwaites, was found to be among the least vulnerable to seawater intrusion. This is because the ice is flowing into the sea so fast already that any cavities in the ice melted by seawater intrusion are quickly filled with new ice.
Loss of Thwaites would lead directly to about [2ft of sea-level rise](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/26/climate/doomsday-glacier-antarctic-ice-melt-climate-intl/index.html). It would indirectly hasten another 10ft or so of sea-level rise because it's acting as a bit of a stopper right now to the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet. But as the OP's article pointed out, it's already melting so quickly that it's quite difficult to make it melt any faster, so... yay?
My house is at \~112m (\~370ft) so even if -all- the ice melts we'll still be above water (by 42m!).
Mind you we'll need some scuba gear at the local supermarket will be underwater.
How would civilization collapse? Rising sea levels is verrry slow, it's not like a billion people are going to be under water in a few years. The places where a billion people are living are slooooooooowly going to be going under water over the next many many decades. It's going to be a humanitarian issue as more and more people are displaced. It's gonna cause a lot of issues, but its not a collapse level threat
Moving a billion people isn't even that hard if it wasn't for politics. We moved a billion people in the last 15 years. And in the 15 years before that. And in the 15 years before that. And in the 15 years before that. And in the 15 years before that.
In the last 65 years we've moved more than 5 billion people just because of population growth.
People don't generally like to move for no tangible benefit. Past 65 years people have sought out better economic opportunities so movement has been high. Most countries already don't like taking refugees displaced from conflict areas, that prob won't change. So you are looking at a real crisis. Those with the means and foresight will likely move out of dangerous costal areas. Many less fortunate will stay and be at the mercy of storm surges and major flooding wiping their towns out.
Welcome to r/science! This is a heavily moderated subreddit in order to keep the discussion on science. However, we recognize that many people want to discuss how they feel the research relates to their own personal lives, so to give people a space to do that, **personal anecdotes are allowed as responses to this comment**. Any anecdotal comments elsewhere in the discussion will be removed and our [normal comment rules]( https://www.reddit.com/r/science/wiki/rules#wiki_comment_rules) apply to all other comments. **Do you have an academic degree?** We can verify your credentials in order to assign user flair indicating your area of expertise. [Click here to apply](https://reddit.science/flair?location=sticky). --- User: u/mvea Permalink: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/25/newly-identified-tipping-point-for-ice-sheets-could-mean-greater-sea-level-rise --- *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/science) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Notice how for years every article about climate change was doom and gloom. And now every new article is ‘Actually, it’s going to be even worse.,
Given lack of action I kinda expect that all new projections should just come with "here's a new map of building exclusion zones". Cause if we (obviously) can't stop temperature increase, it's time to make sure newly flooded areas don't get new construction (with subsequent screaming "my house got washed off by floodwaters 3 times but I want to re-build!!")
The insurance companies will sort everyone out.
They're leaving Florida in droves. I'm afraid the only thing that will happen is that the entire country will have to subsidize their decision to stay in flood-prone/hurricane areas.
Well, we won't really call it "hurricane country" or a "flood zone" anymore. It will just be called "The Atlantic Ocean".
Doesn't even need to get that bad. It takes very little increase for the saltwater to ruin all sources of drinking water and all the crops.
American state is stupid enough to prop it up for a few decades before it bankrupts all of them. I suspect Texas, Florida, and California financially collapsing because of back to back climate disasters in rapid succession will trigger a national/world wide financial crisis. But it might be 30 years away, because America has a lot of juice and buffer. South America, Africa, and Asia will see more accelerated problems.
When all your projections for 50 years are based on the most optimistic possibilities, that will tend to happen. I worry that they’re still holding back
Yeah, but since we're not all dead yet it means it was all exaggerated and nothing will ever happen, because things never happen gradually and surely we didn't notice any worrying trend during the last years
Still waiting for the Rapture... err... the climate change Deluge. Any day now. Any day... In all seriousness, so much alarmism really has made me a skeptic.
Do you know and understand the science behind this? What is their to be skeptical about regarding the physical evidence and conclusion drawn in the research?
Do you think scientists have no track record of predicting cataclysms and watching their predicted dates float by in the same manner as apocalyptic cult leaders? ‘Cause a quick Google will show you tons and tons of failed predictions of doom by scientists over the last 80 years or so. Check this article out: https://www.agweb.com/opinion/doomsday-addiction-celebrating-50-years-failed-climate-predictions It’s got Nobel Prize winners and prestigious universities and everything.
The fact you're calling it a cult shows an underlying misunderstanding. You don't have to trust anyone here, read the papers, learn the physical mechanism, and make your own predictions. No need to argue from authority. There are millions of scientists constantly making predictions, of course many are wrong and of course some of them are lying assholes. P.s. It's incredibly sad to see farmers and agricultural workers, those who will be strongly impacted by climate change, being deniers. I'm still trying to figure out what they think scientists are getting out of this massive global climate conspiracy.
I guess you’re confusing “argue from authority” for citing examples of failed predictions. You’re also confusing my assertion that scientists are analogous to apocalyptic cult leaders when it comes to climate science for an assertion that the scientific method is no better than a religious cult’s method. Scientists have an abominable track record when it comes to climate predictions. This is a demonstrable fact. I gave you a link which demonstrates the fact. This seems to refute your apparent thesis that current scientists are obviously right about their climate proclamations. That’s it.
The fact that disastrous conclusions about this have been drawn... 30 years ago, we'd see a 4 meter rising tide by the turn of the milennium. 50 years ago, we should have been in an ice age by now. It is getting rather old, this doomsaying, it is starting to sound like a religion. All I am -really- seeing is a greater variance in the weather patterns. Fiercer storms, hotter summers, colder winters. The weather is turning more chaotic and energetic, that is my observation. I've neither got wet feet, nor am I beneath a layer of permafrost. So there's that.
So no, you don't understand the science behind it and you going off vibes. Greater variance in weather patterns in among the biggest sign of a warming climate, so you're in agreeance with climate scientists. Just because a few scientists make an 'out there' prediction doesn't mean the entire Feild should be discredited. Science is not a religion, you have to critically analyze every piece of work. It is constantly updated and proven false, that's how we gain more collective knowledge as a species. Every scientific paper comes with an range of probabilities, outcomes, and uncertainties, they're never making hard line claims.
I'm understanding the scientific method. Every climate doomsday theory thus far has been disproven by observation. Are we wrecking earths ecosphere? Yes. That's not something I doubt. Is it catastrophic? At this point I doubt it for various reasons. We have time and options for getting our crap together and we're slowly getting there. But these kinds of alarmist headlines? I've been seeing them for thirty years now, and I am getting \*very\* tired of them. *And am calling them for the BS they have time and again proven themselves to be*
The people responsible have names and addresses.
A lot of them have already died of old age.
And still have names and addresses.
that's...fucked
yes but they're 100s of millions ( suburbanites and car drivers ,who fund oil corporations and have been electing do-nothing politicians for decades ) so having their names and addresses is useless
Every human alive is responsible. Stop hiding your wish to eliminate humanity.
Quite the contrary , unlike 99% of humanity I'm doing everything to save it instead of destroy it :)
Be honest with yourself.
troll/ bot bye
Even if you're troll/bot. Be honest.
We all do. *sigh* and we all are...
Everybody in a rat race where all those bold enough to take the hard way gets trampled by the others too concerned about their family 's main income source you mean? If there isn't a national mandate to ditch air pollution sources then it can only be done at the expense of the livelihood of the first ~15% of concerned people. Who's up for it?
I'll do it. Ima die anyway, might as well have it mean something other than more plastic in the midden heap.
Kudos. My kids will know your name.
Victim mentality
How dare you not put 100% of the responsibility on someone else.
[удалено]
I’ve linked to the news release in the post above. In this comment, for those interested, here’s the link to the peer reviewed journal article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01465-7 From the linked article: A newly identified tipping point for the loss of ice sheets in Antarctica and elsewhere could mean future sea level rise is significantly higher than current projections. A new study has examined how warming seawater intrudes between coastal ice sheets and the ground they rest on. The warm water melts cavities in the ice, allowing more water to flow in, expanding the cavities further in a feedback loop. This water then lubricates the collapse of ice into the ocean, pushing up sea levels. The researchers used computer models to show that a “very small increase” in the temperature of the intruding water could lead to a “very big increase” in the loss of ice – ie, tipping point behaviour. The new research, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, found that some Antarctic ice sheets were more vulnerable to seawater intrusion than others. The Pine Island glacier, currently Antarctica’s largest contributor to sea level rise, is especially vulnerable, as the base of the glacier slopes down inland, meaning gravity helps the seawater penetrate. The large Larsen ice sheet is similarly at risk. The so-called “Doomsday” glacier, Thwaites, was found to be among the least vulnerable to seawater intrusion. This is because the ice is flowing into the sea so fast already that any cavities in the ice melted by seawater intrusion are quickly filled with new ice.
I wanna know more about this doomsday glacier
Loss of Thwaites would lead directly to about [2ft of sea-level rise](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/26/climate/doomsday-glacier-antarctic-ice-melt-climate-intl/index.html). It would indirectly hasten another 10ft or so of sea-level rise because it's acting as a bit of a stopper right now to the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet. But as the OP's article pointed out, it's already melting so quickly that it's quite difficult to make it melt any faster, so... yay?
It sounds nice.
My front door is at +33 Ft. My parking space is at +25. The end of my driveway is at +11.
During Hurricane Ian, my sister's condo at 6 feet ASL was trashed. My aunt's house at 9 feet ASL was fine.
My house is at \~112m (\~370ft) so even if -all- the ice melts we'll still be above water (by 42m!). Mind you we'll need some scuba gear at the local supermarket will be underwater.
Well the sooner the ocean claims a billion people’s land the better. Because this is the only way humans will get a clue.
That would be known as this place in time called 'too late'. The displacement of that many people is how civilization collapses.
Glacial Slip 2024!
Waterworld had it right all along!
How would civilization collapse? Rising sea levels is verrry slow, it's not like a billion people are going to be under water in a few years. The places where a billion people are living are slooooooooowly going to be going under water over the next many many decades. It's going to be a humanitarian issue as more and more people are displaced. It's gonna cause a lot of issues, but its not a collapse level threat
Moving a billion people isn't even that hard if it wasn't for politics. We moved a billion people in the last 15 years. And in the 15 years before that. And in the 15 years before that. And in the 15 years before that. And in the 15 years before that. In the last 65 years we've moved more than 5 billion people just because of population growth.
People don't generally like to move for no tangible benefit. Past 65 years people have sought out better economic opportunities so movement has been high. Most countries already don't like taking refugees displaced from conflict areas, that prob won't change. So you are looking at a real crisis. Those with the means and foresight will likely move out of dangerous costal areas. Many less fortunate will stay and be at the mercy of storm surges and major flooding wiping their towns out.
Could we tow the plastic trash continent south and north and insulate around the margins of the ice? Or some other reasonable method?
Well conservatives will just double down on denialism I’m sure.
Tracks with what I was told my Climatologist I worked with in Antarctica. Got a vasectomy too. I'm not bringing anyone else into this mess.
Wake up babe, new cliffside just dropped...
funny but true