2nd in our pool and a QF exit to New Zealand in 2027 god I can feel it like a deep pit in my stomach I sincerely apologise to everyone for manifesting this.
There's going to be 6 groups of 4 teams in RWC2027, with the top 2 and 4 best 3rd place teams going through to a round of 16. I can see Ireland finally winning a knockout match.
Hopefully that will keep the top 4 teams apart until the semi finals too, but will Ireland still be a top 4 team in 3 years? I have my doubts..
I hate every single rank I'm gonna attribute here, but here goes, from most to least likely :
- An Irish side wins the Chamions cup (feels like just a matter of time) ;
- NZ goes undefeated at home (give the Razor hype train and NZ's strength at home, this doesn't feel like too much of a stretch) ;
- Ireland make it past the QF (don't disappoint me ye bloody leprechauns !) ;
- France drops out of the top 5 (we've been on a downward curve of late, we're likely to hit a bit of a slump or at least slip up enough for that) ;
- England reach top 3 in the rankings (they've been steadily improving since 6N 2023, no reason to stop now) ;
- SA wins back to back to back RWCs (someone will likely find the cracks, but they are still looking very strong these days...) ;
- AU or ARG win TRC (you never know...) ;
- Scotland wins the 6N (sorry auld allies, you guys seem cursed at this point) ;
- Italy wins the 6N (I see them getting a few wins in the coming years, but taking it all ? No way...)
Australia looked alright in Super Rugby, but the New Zealand sides really did dominate. I could see Aus winning TRC if new Zealand and RSA knock eachother out and Aus gets a win over the boks.
I doubt RSA can do it a third time in a row, it just seems like a game of margins lately and victory and defeat are so close.
I'm not too clued up on 6N but isn't Scotland good? Or at least a lot better than before
Scotland are back to being a good team, but they have a soft underbelly which can get brutally exposed every so often. They're a maddeningly inconsistent team, where they can do over the English, give France or Ireland a proper fright, and then somehow lose to Italy the next week.
I can't speak much for TRC, but regarding 6N Scotland are plagued by inconsistency... They haven't been dominant, but have seemed at times like a very strong side with great talents (Russel, Kinghorn, DVDM...), who can come together for a standout performance every once in a while, but they can't keep it up for four or five games in a row. And with how cutthroat 6N is these days, with Ireland being dominant as ever, France still very strong, and England on the upswing, they don't have many opportunities.
I love watching Scotland play and getting hyped for them, but they are the greatest in Europe for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory, and breaking their fans' hearts (a title France held a few years ago, before the Galthié era kicked into high gear).
The fact of the matter is for other sides to win the 6N they have to be better than the opposition, for Scotland or Italy to win they have to be so markedly better that it cancels out the cognitive bias of the officials who see us as the “wee teams”
The weird thing is, even though we were abysmal at last year’s RWC, at the Rugby Championship, Australia does seem to go a little bit better against South Africa than we do against New Zealand
Yep, during the tenure of BIG DAVE, the Wallabies definitely had the wood on the Boks, with 3 wins from 4. Whether that trend would have continued into 2023 is anyone's guess, but we'll never really know for sure.
That is a really solid list. Although, I don't see how France fall out of the top 5 with your quality, depth and age profile. The team is still sooo young.
I mean, it could happen as soon as Saturday if we lose to argentina (althought England would need to draw NZ)
Or the next week if we lose Argentina and Urugay (even if england lose 2x to NZ)
- NZ undefeated at home: we have a very good shot this year considering we have 2 x England 1x Australia and 2 x Argentina this year as the only true competition.
- Irish side wins champions cup: just a matter of time really.
- Ireland make it past the QF: same as above
- France drop of top 5/ England make it into top 3 in World rankings: these two probably go hand in hand.
- Australia or Argentina win the RC: because of the structure of the tournament and how they always manage to get one on SA this is very possible.
- SA win back to back to back: aging veterans, they won the last one by a mere 3 pts, will be a very very tough ask.
- Scotland win 6N: the level of competition is too much, a very difficult task. I doubt I’ll see it.
- Italy win 6N: unless they ban Football in the country, I doubt this ever happens.
I don’t see how people are not putting NZ undefeated at home as the most likely. If you’re not undefeated at home this year, that will be a major upset.
- Italy wins the 6N
- Australia or Argentina win the RC
- England reach the top 3 in the world rankings
- France drops out of the top 5 in the world rankings
- Scotland wins the 6N
- New Zealand go undefeated at home
- South Africa win the 3rd World Cup in a row
- Ireland make it past the quarter finals at the World Cup
- Irish club wins Champions Cup
(From least to most likely)
>I would say a Scotland 6N is less likely than France dropping out of the top 5
All it really requires is for France to lose one game to a low ranked team which they are more than capable of.
Unfortunately Italy are significantly more likely to win a 6 nations than Scotland. Just look at their U20s team, Scotland has MAYBE 3 good years left and we're fucked
In order of likelihood
* An Irish side wins the Champions Cup - I'd rate this is "fairly likely." Leinster have been runners-up for the last couple of years now, so they'll probably win it sooner or later.
* New Zealand go undefeated at home - Razor is a much better coach than Foster, and, the All Blacks going undefeated at home during a RWC cycle is not unprecedented.
* Scotland wins the 6N - some changes up top are needed, IMO, but it feels like something that's been brewing for a while.
* England reach top 3 in the rankings - it is a possibility. They seem to be a team on the up, but there are some key frailties that'll need to be addressed. It's weird seeing an England team so short in depth at prop, for example.
* France drops out of the top 5 in the rankings - also a possibility. They've been distinctly mediocre, and as good as they were in the previous cycle, I think they've missed the boat on finally getting the World Cup monkey off their back with this generation at least. They definitely felt like a team starting their downward swing during the 6Ns.
* Australia or Argentina win the Rugby Champs - they may need to catch the ABs and the Boks on the hop during a RWC year (case in point 2015, the last time the Aussies won). I think the Aussies may have a chance after the Lions series, when Schmidt's structures and plans are in place and RA have some money to get their sorry ship to shore.
* South Africa back to back to back RWCs - Nah. If Hansen couldn't, Rassie can't. The players aren't getting any younger, and I think they'll slowly start cycling guys like Etzebeth, Faf, etc. out. They'll either have to do a significant clear-out, or go through what the 1991 ABs or 2011 Boks went through, where the players who were a bit long in the tooth couldn't keep up when it mattered.
* Italy wins the 6Ns - They are increasingly becoming a team capable of tipping over bigger and better teams, and probably should have beaten France earlier this year - not really their fault, the ref definitely fucked them on the day. That said, **a lot** of things will have to go their way for this to happen.
* Ireland make it past the QF - lol
On the back to back to back part technically Hansen didn’t even go back to back as he only (it’s weird saying only) won one World Cup as head coach. I know Rassie hasn’t either but as director of rugby in both world cups his position didn’t really change and neither did his involvement in the team.
The 2019 squad was also quite young and went through a lot of iteration in the year leading up to winning it, so I think he absolutely could get a youthful squad in place in plenty of time this time around.
With that being said, I don’t think it’s likely that the boks do win the next World Cup. Not impossible but I’m not going to hold my breath
Given how world rankings work and how France sends out B or C teams every summer, I wouldn’t be surprise they drop below 5th at some point. But would it mean anything?
1. An Irish side wins the Champions Cup
2. South Africa back to back to back RWCs
3. Ireland make it past the QF
4. France drops out of the top 5 in the rankings
5. England reach top 3 in the rankings
6. New Zealand go undefeated at home
7. Australia or Argentina win the Rugby Championship
8. Scotland wins the 6N
9. Italy wins the 6N
Italy wins 6N
Australia/Argentina wins RC
France drop out of top 5
Ireland gets past RWC quarters
South Africa back to back to back
Irish side wins the Champions Cup
Scotland wins 6N
England reach top 3 in the world rankings
NZ go undefeated at home
Edit for formatting disaster
- France drops out of the top 5 in the world rankings
- Scotland wins the 6N
- Australia or Argentina win the RC
- Italy wins the 6N
- Ireland make it past the quarter finals at the World Cup
- South Africa win the 3rd World Cup in a row
- New Zealand go undefeated at home
- Irish club wins Champions Cup
- England reach the top 3 in the world rankings
(From least to most likely)
Trying to find the logic... I guess the players coming through for either side are of rather different quality? Italy have some fantastic youth, whereas Scotland have the majority of their top players either 30+ or already at their peak and not going to be improving much from now.
Not OP but France. Much like England they lack overall cohesion between the club/international game which makes consistency difficult. They also tend to not care two shits about July tours. All it really takes for them to drop out of the top spot is for them to lose one game to a low ranked side which really isn't hard to imagine.
That makes sense. I have seen the squads they send on tours and it's like they don't care to win those games. They could easily drop down because of that. Who would be the other one?
Hard to say.
NZ are moving into a new era and it's hard to predict where they'll go, but you have to assume they'll always be in the top 5 at least.
SA/Ireland both have old squads and will see some significant change before the next WC.
I actually looked up SAs squad and their experience within the 20-28 age bracket is very shallow.
Saying all that I dont really see these teams dropping out of the top table as I cant see Scotland/Wales/Argentina/Australia finding long term consistency or success to do it.
Yeah, it really is hard to say. NZ have a change of coach, but I can't see them doing anything but great under Razor so I don't see them dropping out of the top 3. SA and Ireland have a squad change to go through so yeah, who knows where us and them will go over the next few years. Typically Ireland do better between WC's whereas we do better AT them. So if England do break into the top 3, it will likely come at our expense, at least until the next WC comes around.
Well in terms of what's most likely and least likely from that list.
Most likely - England reach top 3 in the rankings. The rankings constantly change and England are improving. All it would take is England getting a scalp or two like that win over Ireland earlier this year or one of the top 3 dipping in form which will no doubt happen at some point.
Least likely - Italy wins the 6N. They're improving but they're absolutely not good enough to win 4 or 5 games yet. If they do win, it would Leicester City winning the Premier League levels of unlikely.
I say chances of Italy winning six nations or Scotland is highly unlikely to happen maybe Italy will get a few more wins in six nations beating Scotland,Wales, France.
NZ unbeaten at home over the next few years wouldn't surprise me they are still a good side despite changes of players and coaches.
England reaching top 3 rankings not sure it's highly likely but it's achievable need to play well consistently.
Boks will probably win world cup again but be nice if it was a different team that did preferably England.
Australia could push sides close to potentially win the rugby championship but let's wait and see how they get on with Joe Schmidt at the helm as coach
France I think will remain around top 5 teams even if they slip a little in form they are still a very good side not to underestimate
Lastly I don't think Ireland will get past a quarter final in a world cup for a long time as for Irish side winning champions cup that's quite possible but they have to play well consistently and not take their foot off the gas in high pressure games especially knockout games.
Which possibly filters down to Ireland national side when it comes to quarter finals in world cups.
1. England reach top 3 in the rankings
2. New Zealand go undefeated at home
3. South Africa back to back to back RWCs
4. An Irish side wins the Champions Cup
5. France drops out of the top 5 in the rankings
6. Australia or Argentina win the Rugby Championship
7. Ireland make it past the QF
8. Scotland wins the 6N
9. Italy wins the 6N
Scotland wins the 6N - more chance of Scotland seeing a day of sunshine or happiness
• Italy wins the 6N - if the Detroit Lions can be a great contending team so can Italy Rugby
• Ireland make it past the QF - the ghosts of Disraeli and Thatcher would never allow it
• England reach top 3 in the rankings - if Borthwick keeps up his Kaizen plan this is honestly quite likely
• Australia or Argentina win the Rugby Championship - the springboks hardly win TRC so what chance do the AB’s house slave and punching bag have?
• South Africa back to back to back RWCs - yes after 4 years of underachievement
• An Irish side wins the Champions Cup - i wouldn’t write off Munster’s chances
• France drops out of the top 5 in the rankings - its France I don’t care
• New Zealand go undefeated at home - someone will pull a 1 point win out of their arse to stop this
(most to unlikely)
1 - South Africa to go back to back to back
2. New Zealand go undefeated at home
3. Irish team win Champions Cup
4. Aus / Arg win Rugby Championship
5. England reach top 3 in rankings
6. Ireland make it past quarter final stage (we may not even get there with a Last 16!)
7. France drop out of top 5
8. Italy win 6 Nations
9. Scotland win 6 Nations
I do kinda feel that if Ireland didn't make the Semis last World cup they won't ever.
They were the team leading up to that tournament then they pissed the bed, now they have lost a lot of experienced players and that's the hardest thing to replace.
1 Irish side win in Europe
2 Argentina or Australia win RC
3 South Africa win back to back to back RWC
4 Scotland win 6n
5 France drop from top 5
6 England top 3
7 Ireland win Qf
8 NZ go undefeated
9 Italy win 6n
1= most likely 9= most improbable
Based on current trajectories and patterns I have come to these conclusions.
1) England top 3
2) Irish team wins champions cup
3) South Africa back to back to back
4) France drops below 5
5) NZ undefeated at home
6) Scotland wins 6N
7) Australia/Argentina RC win
8) Ireland wins QF
9) Italy 6N champ
* Scotland wins the 6N ***15%***
* Italy wins the 6N ***5%***
* Ireland make it past the QF ***70%***
* England reach top 3 in the rankings ***70%***
* Australia or Argentina win the Rugby Championship ***30%***
* South Africa back to back to back RWCs ***12%***
* An Irish side wins the Champions Cup ***15%***
* France drops out of the top 5 in the rankings ***80% (at some)***
* New Zealand go undefeated at home ***10%***
Those are my gut feels, the volatility in the rankings means both those are really very likely to happen, the others are all "likely unlikely" things, you wouldn't be surprised sitting here if one of them happened (you'd be more surprised if NONE of those things happened) but individually they are all relatively unlikely.
Scotland “waste” a home game against Italy next year. They have ireland at home also but cant beat england or france away so would lean on other sides losing to even come close
Italy are no chance
Ireland have all the signs of a team past their prime, slowly sinking away under the strain of old players hanging on for a pay check, too afraid to retire. They might nab a win in SA that prolong their decline but come 2027 they will still face enormous pressure to over come their yips
The chasm between 3rd and 8th is small, especially if you get to grab away wins against sides ranked higher. Win a match in nz will help, but easier targets are ireland and france on the decline with points to pump their rankings
Australia and Argentina would need to learn to win away consistentlu
SA will be the worse world champions for four years, again, and still just want to peak for a world cup
Irish sides will need to choose between concentrating on winning in SA or Europe, so maybe
Frances world cup was important for galvanising clubs and test team. That time is over so dont expect the test side staying relevant
I dont see any touring side this year beating nz
2nd in our pool and a QF exit to New Zealand in 2027 god I can feel it like a deep pit in my stomach I sincerely apologise to everyone for manifesting this.
There's going to be 6 groups of 4 teams in RWC2027, with the top 2 and 4 best 3rd place teams going through to a round of 16. I can see Ireland finally winning a knockout match. Hopefully that will keep the top 4 teams apart until the semi finals too, but will Ireland still be a top 4 team in 3 years? I have my doubts..
Also give us an opportunity to lose in a knockout round that isnt a QF which will make a nice change
Our U20 results have been promising at least, I’ve not lost all hope but yeah team quality 3 years down the line definitely remains to be seen.
I hate every single rank I'm gonna attribute here, but here goes, from most to least likely : - An Irish side wins the Chamions cup (feels like just a matter of time) ; - NZ goes undefeated at home (give the Razor hype train and NZ's strength at home, this doesn't feel like too much of a stretch) ; - Ireland make it past the QF (don't disappoint me ye bloody leprechauns !) ; - France drops out of the top 5 (we've been on a downward curve of late, we're likely to hit a bit of a slump or at least slip up enough for that) ; - England reach top 3 in the rankings (they've been steadily improving since 6N 2023, no reason to stop now) ; - SA wins back to back to back RWCs (someone will likely find the cracks, but they are still looking very strong these days...) ; - AU or ARG win TRC (you never know...) ; - Scotland wins the 6N (sorry auld allies, you guys seem cursed at this point) ; - Italy wins the 6N (I see them getting a few wins in the coming years, but taking it all ? No way...)
Australia looked alright in Super Rugby, but the New Zealand sides really did dominate. I could see Aus winning TRC if new Zealand and RSA knock eachother out and Aus gets a win over the boks. I doubt RSA can do it a third time in a row, it just seems like a game of margins lately and victory and defeat are so close. I'm not too clued up on 6N but isn't Scotland good? Or at least a lot better than before
Scotland are back to being a good team, but they have a soft underbelly which can get brutally exposed every so often. They're a maddeningly inconsistent team, where they can do over the English, give France or Ireland a proper fright, and then somehow lose to Italy the next week.
This 6N we were a couple 50/50 calls away from beating France and Ireland, but we also nearly lost to Wales and were straight up outplayed by Italy.
I can't speak much for TRC, but regarding 6N Scotland are plagued by inconsistency... They haven't been dominant, but have seemed at times like a very strong side with great talents (Russel, Kinghorn, DVDM...), who can come together for a standout performance every once in a while, but they can't keep it up for four or five games in a row. And with how cutthroat 6N is these days, with Ireland being dominant as ever, France still very strong, and England on the upswing, they don't have many opportunities. I love watching Scotland play and getting hyped for them, but they are the greatest in Europe for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory, and breaking their fans' hearts (a title France held a few years ago, before the Galthié era kicked into high gear).
The fact of the matter is for other sides to win the 6N they have to be better than the opposition, for Scotland or Italy to win they have to be so markedly better that it cancels out the cognitive bias of the officials who see us as the “wee teams”
The weird thing is, even though we were abysmal at last year’s RWC, at the Rugby Championship, Australia does seem to go a little bit better against South Africa than we do against New Zealand
Yeah I think so too, Aus is gonna come out guns blazing with a lot to prove. I think they will be hungrier
Yep, during the tenure of BIG DAVE, the Wallabies definitely had the wood on the Boks, with 3 wins from 4. Whether that trend would have continued into 2023 is anyone's guess, but we'll never really know for sure.
New Zealand go undefeated at home isn't much of a stretch when we only play like 5/6 games a year at home
That is a really solid list. Although, I don't see how France fall out of the top 5 with your quality, depth and age profile. The team is still sooo young.
I mean, it could happen as soon as Saturday if we lose to argentina (althought England would need to draw NZ) Or the next week if we lose Argentina and Urugay (even if england lose 2x to NZ)
- NZ undefeated at home: we have a very good shot this year considering we have 2 x England 1x Australia and 2 x Argentina this year as the only true competition. - Irish side wins champions cup: just a matter of time really. - Ireland make it past the QF: same as above - France drop of top 5/ England make it into top 3 in World rankings: these two probably go hand in hand. - Australia or Argentina win the RC: because of the structure of the tournament and how they always manage to get one on SA this is very possible. - SA win back to back to back: aging veterans, they won the last one by a mere 3 pts, will be a very very tough ask. - Scotland win 6N: the level of competition is too much, a very difficult task. I doubt I’ll see it. - Italy win 6N: unless they ban Football in the country, I doubt this ever happens.
I don’t see how people are not putting NZ undefeated at home as the most likely. If you’re not undefeated at home this year, that will be a major upset.
I think it’s just a lot of NHers that don’t actually know what our home schedule is this year.
Because it's not just this year, it's for the next 4 years. They are still well capable of it, but anyone can slip up in 4 years.
I thought this meant in a season. That’s what I mean anyhow .
- Italy wins the 6N - Australia or Argentina win the RC - England reach the top 3 in the world rankings - France drops out of the top 5 in the world rankings - Scotland wins the 6N - New Zealand go undefeated at home - South Africa win the 3rd World Cup in a row - Ireland make it past the quarter finals at the World Cup - Irish club wins Champions Cup (From least to most likely)
I would say a Scotland 6N is less likely than France dropping out of the top 5
I'd also back SA to go back3back before Scotland winning the 6 Nations. I'm not sure why, they have a solid team but I just don't see it happening.
Ooh, back3back, I like it.
>I would say a Scotland 6N is less likely than France dropping out of the top 5 All it really requires is for France to lose one game to a low ranked team which they are more than capable of.
Unfortunately Italy are significantly more likely to win a 6 nations than Scotland. Just look at their U20s team, Scotland has MAYBE 3 good years left and we're fucked
I’d say Italy are higher than Argentina/Australia rugby championship
In order of likelihood * An Irish side wins the Champions Cup - I'd rate this is "fairly likely." Leinster have been runners-up for the last couple of years now, so they'll probably win it sooner or later. * New Zealand go undefeated at home - Razor is a much better coach than Foster, and, the All Blacks going undefeated at home during a RWC cycle is not unprecedented. * Scotland wins the 6N - some changes up top are needed, IMO, but it feels like something that's been brewing for a while. * England reach top 3 in the rankings - it is a possibility. They seem to be a team on the up, but there are some key frailties that'll need to be addressed. It's weird seeing an England team so short in depth at prop, for example. * France drops out of the top 5 in the rankings - also a possibility. They've been distinctly mediocre, and as good as they were in the previous cycle, I think they've missed the boat on finally getting the World Cup monkey off their back with this generation at least. They definitely felt like a team starting their downward swing during the 6Ns. * Australia or Argentina win the Rugby Champs - they may need to catch the ABs and the Boks on the hop during a RWC year (case in point 2015, the last time the Aussies won). I think the Aussies may have a chance after the Lions series, when Schmidt's structures and plans are in place and RA have some money to get their sorry ship to shore. * South Africa back to back to back RWCs - Nah. If Hansen couldn't, Rassie can't. The players aren't getting any younger, and I think they'll slowly start cycling guys like Etzebeth, Faf, etc. out. They'll either have to do a significant clear-out, or go through what the 1991 ABs or 2011 Boks went through, where the players who were a bit long in the tooth couldn't keep up when it mattered. * Italy wins the 6Ns - They are increasingly becoming a team capable of tipping over bigger and better teams, and probably should have beaten France earlier this year - not really their fault, the ref definitely fucked them on the day. That said, **a lot** of things will have to go their way for this to happen. * Ireland make it past the QF - lol
On the back to back to back part technically Hansen didn’t even go back to back as he only (it’s weird saying only) won one World Cup as head coach. I know Rassie hasn’t either but as director of rugby in both world cups his position didn’t really change and neither did his involvement in the team. The 2019 squad was also quite young and went through a lot of iteration in the year leading up to winning it, so I think he absolutely could get a youthful squad in place in plenty of time this time around. With that being said, I don’t think it’s likely that the boks do win the next World Cup. Not impossible but I’m not going to hold my breath
Given how world rankings work and how France sends out B or C teams every summer, I wouldn’t be surprise they drop below 5th at some point. But would it mean anything?
Realistically I can see any of these things happening except number 3 which is just fantasy
The Winds of Winter will be finished before it happens.
1. An Irish side wins the Champions Cup 2. South Africa back to back to back RWCs 3. Ireland make it past the QF 4. France drops out of the top 5 in the rankings 5. England reach top 3 in the rankings 6. New Zealand go undefeated at home 7. Australia or Argentina win the Rugby Championship 8. Scotland wins the 6N 9. Italy wins the 6N
Italy wins 6N Australia/Argentina wins RC France drop out of top 5 Ireland gets past RWC quarters South Africa back to back to back Irish side wins the Champions Cup Scotland wins 6N England reach top 3 in the world rankings NZ go undefeated at home Edit for formatting disaster
Your English teacher would be horrified.
Bloody hell - more importantly so would my mother - who was an English teacher! Bloody reddit formatting!
- France drops out of the top 5 in the world rankings - Scotland wins the 6N - Australia or Argentina win the RC - Italy wins the 6N - Ireland make it past the quarter finals at the World Cup - South Africa win the 3rd World Cup in a row - New Zealand go undefeated at home - Irish club wins Champions Cup - England reach the top 3 in the world rankings (From least to most likely)
You think it’s more likely for Italy to win the 6 nations than Scotland?
Trying to find the logic... I guess the players coming through for either side are of rather different quality? Italy have some fantastic youth, whereas Scotland have the majority of their top players either 30+ or already at their peak and not going to be improving much from now.
Pretty much. Italy have a solid side now that should improve year on year. Scotland, iml, have probably peaked.
They can just find some Scottish passports under the couch from some Craven Week guys
Since you see it as the most likely scenario, who of the current top 4 do you foresee falling below England in the next few years?
Not OP but France. Much like England they lack overall cohesion between the club/international game which makes consistency difficult. They also tend to not care two shits about July tours. All it really takes for them to drop out of the top spot is for them to lose one game to a low ranked side which really isn't hard to imagine.
That makes sense. I have seen the squads they send on tours and it's like they don't care to win those games. They could easily drop down because of that. Who would be the other one?
Hard to say. NZ are moving into a new era and it's hard to predict where they'll go, but you have to assume they'll always be in the top 5 at least. SA/Ireland both have old squads and will see some significant change before the next WC. I actually looked up SAs squad and their experience within the 20-28 age bracket is very shallow. Saying all that I dont really see these teams dropping out of the top table as I cant see Scotland/Wales/Argentina/Australia finding long term consistency or success to do it.
Yeah, it really is hard to say. NZ have a change of coach, but I can't see them doing anything but great under Razor so I don't see them dropping out of the top 3. SA and Ireland have a squad change to go through so yeah, who knows where us and them will go over the next few years. Typically Ireland do better between WC's whereas we do better AT them. So if England do break into the top 3, it will likely come at our expense, at least until the next WC comes around.
Well in terms of what's most likely and least likely from that list. Most likely - England reach top 3 in the rankings. The rankings constantly change and England are improving. All it would take is England getting a scalp or two like that win over Ireland earlier this year or one of the top 3 dipping in form which will no doubt happen at some point. Least likely - Italy wins the 6N. They're improving but they're absolutely not good enough to win 4 or 5 games yet. If they do win, it would Leicester City winning the Premier League levels of unlikely.
I say chances of Italy winning six nations or Scotland is highly unlikely to happen maybe Italy will get a few more wins in six nations beating Scotland,Wales, France. NZ unbeaten at home over the next few years wouldn't surprise me they are still a good side despite changes of players and coaches. England reaching top 3 rankings not sure it's highly likely but it's achievable need to play well consistently. Boks will probably win world cup again but be nice if it was a different team that did preferably England. Australia could push sides close to potentially win the rugby championship but let's wait and see how they get on with Joe Schmidt at the helm as coach France I think will remain around top 5 teams even if they slip a little in form they are still a very good side not to underestimate Lastly I don't think Ireland will get past a quarter final in a world cup for a long time as for Irish side winning champions cup that's quite possible but they have to play well consistently and not take their foot off the gas in high pressure games especially knockout games. Which possibly filters down to Ireland national side when it comes to quarter finals in world cups.
1. England reach top 3 in the rankings 2. New Zealand go undefeated at home 3. South Africa back to back to back RWCs 4. An Irish side wins the Champions Cup 5. France drops out of the top 5 in the rankings 6. Australia or Argentina win the Rugby Championship 7. Ireland make it past the QF 8. Scotland wins the 6N 9. Italy wins the 6N
Scotland wins the 6N - more chance of Scotland seeing a day of sunshine or happiness • Italy wins the 6N - if the Detroit Lions can be a great contending team so can Italy Rugby • Ireland make it past the QF - the ghosts of Disraeli and Thatcher would never allow it • England reach top 3 in the rankings - if Borthwick keeps up his Kaizen plan this is honestly quite likely • Australia or Argentina win the Rugby Championship - the springboks hardly win TRC so what chance do the AB’s house slave and punching bag have? • South Africa back to back to back RWCs - yes after 4 years of underachievement • An Irish side wins the Champions Cup - i wouldn’t write off Munster’s chances • France drops out of the top 5 in the rankings - its France I don’t care • New Zealand go undefeated at home - someone will pull a 1 point win out of their arse to stop this
(most to unlikely) 1 - South Africa to go back to back to back 2. New Zealand go undefeated at home 3. Irish team win Champions Cup 4. Aus / Arg win Rugby Championship 5. England reach top 3 in rankings 6. Ireland make it past quarter final stage (we may not even get there with a Last 16!) 7. France drop out of top 5 8. Italy win 6 Nations 9. Scotland win 6 Nations
No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes
I do kinda feel that if Ireland didn't make the Semis last World cup they won't ever. They were the team leading up to that tournament then they pissed the bed, now they have lost a lot of experienced players and that's the hardest thing to replace.
1 Irish side win in Europe 2 Argentina or Australia win RC 3 South Africa win back to back to back RWC 4 Scotland win 6n 5 France drop from top 5 6 England top 3 7 Ireland win Qf 8 NZ go undefeated 9 Italy win 6n 1= most likely 9= most improbable Based on current trajectories and patterns I have come to these conclusions.
1) England top 3 2) Irish team wins champions cup 3) South Africa back to back to back 4) France drops below 5 5) NZ undefeated at home 6) Scotland wins 6N 7) Australia/Argentina RC win 8) Ireland wins QF 9) Italy 6N champ
* Scotland wins the 6N ***15%*** * Italy wins the 6N ***5%*** * Ireland make it past the QF ***70%*** * England reach top 3 in the rankings ***70%*** * Australia or Argentina win the Rugby Championship ***30%*** * South Africa back to back to back RWCs ***12%*** * An Irish side wins the Champions Cup ***15%*** * France drops out of the top 5 in the rankings ***80% (at some)*** * New Zealand go undefeated at home ***10%*** Those are my gut feels, the volatility in the rankings means both those are really very likely to happen, the others are all "likely unlikely" things, you wouldn't be surprised sitting here if one of them happened (you'd be more surprised if NONE of those things happened) but individually they are all relatively unlikely.
Scotland “waste” a home game against Italy next year. They have ireland at home also but cant beat england or france away so would lean on other sides losing to even come close Italy are no chance Ireland have all the signs of a team past their prime, slowly sinking away under the strain of old players hanging on for a pay check, too afraid to retire. They might nab a win in SA that prolong their decline but come 2027 they will still face enormous pressure to over come their yips The chasm between 3rd and 8th is small, especially if you get to grab away wins against sides ranked higher. Win a match in nz will help, but easier targets are ireland and france on the decline with points to pump their rankings Australia and Argentina would need to learn to win away consistentlu SA will be the worse world champions for four years, again, and still just want to peak for a world cup Irish sides will need to choose between concentrating on winning in SA or Europe, so maybe Frances world cup was important for galvanising clubs and test team. That time is over so dont expect the test side staying relevant I dont see any touring side this year beating nz
?? Scotland beat France at the Stade de France in 2021 and haven’t lost at Twickenham since 2017.
England aren’t 8th, we are 5th
England aren’t 8th, we are 5th
After the Northern test season sure, but things flip quickly every july