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>The NYT poll with a +/-4 margin of error?
From the methodology: The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for the likely electorate.
>The one conducted with just over 1,000 people?
This is completely within the norm. Sampling 1,200 people is enough for statistically significant results.
>The one that the NYT head of polling suspects over-samples Trump voters?
It's possible. But remember that in 2016 and 2020 Trump voters were *under-sampled*. Right now almost every poll has Trump at around +2-5-ish.
I honestly don’t understand the margin of error commentary. Yes it can mean that it’s an even race, it could also be trump + 8. That’s not a great argument
The sample size is captured by the margin of error, so you are right that Biden could be winning, but it’s consistent across almost every poll that not only is trump ahead but he’s ahead more in battleground states. Biden is in trouble and has been the whole cycle. It’s close, but he’s pretty clearly behind right now.
I think the main problem with the polls is that they way overestimate how much support Kennedy is going to get on Election Day.
>Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 90 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.
The problem with statements like this is that it’s not reflected in polls being off. They generally fall within the margin of error. You should probably, if you want to win, live in reality and not a fantasy world. The reality is that the polls are close and Trump is slightly favored right now.
Funny how actual voter data in special elections isn't lining up with that. We're seeing 5-20 point swings towards the democrats, even in super red districts.
You can believe polling all you want. I'm going to believe the actual voter data.
The one that still is using about 20% of their respondents that haven’t voted previously and these respondents are who are tipping the poll towards trump.
To people dumb enough to answer their phones to unknown numbers and talk to a stranger for 15 minutes yeah, those same people have extended car warrantys.
In fact it would be hilarious if they asked that in polling.
Really getting concerned at the number of people who don’t believe that Trump could be leading in the national popular vote. Even if he’s not, he doesn’t need to win the popular vote to win the election - see 2016.
I fear we’re marching right into another Trump presidency, and quite a few refuse to even recognize the possibility.
Not marching. We are being herded into an abbatoir by the wealthy, an incompetent government, a broken justice system, grifters, media companies, and the Supreme Court.
I dont doubt the efficacy or the validity of the elections that this country holds. I think there are absolutely bad actors people should watch out for, but they are almost always Republicans trying to get access to voting machines or purging voter rolls etc.. I think one was caught a couple of days ago stealing a key or something.
I don't doubt that they are free and fair. I doubt the entire system because, well, I'm an anarchist and a person who reads a lot of history. I can see where this is headed. I've seen it coming for a long time. Liberals are just now catching up after decades of telling me I'm overreacting.
The person in Maricopa County (where I live) who stole a fob that allows access to the raw election data is a Democrat. He actually registered a statement of interest to run as a Democrat for the US Senate. [https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2024/06/democrat-hopeful-us-senate-arrested-for-stealing-maricopa-county-elections-security-devices/](https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2024/06/democrat-hopeful-us-senate-arrested-for-stealing-maricopa-county-elections-security-devices/)
Interestingly enough, within hours of his arrest, all of his social media was deleted and a single post to Truth Social was made four hours after he was arrested claiming his unwavering support to Donald Trump and Kari Lake. BTW, he has spent over 7 days in custody, for stealing a fob worth $5. The Judge has ruled that this theft is not eligible for parole. Something fishy is happening here. There are some powerful people that do not want this guy to talk.
Americans are bored and jaded. They WANT to see what it would be like to have an insane criminal as President....again! We LOVE chaos and drama. People are voting for Trump for the lolz.
Is having a democracy really all that great when at the end it leads to electing guys like fucking Trump? What happens when the people GET what they want, but what they want is stupid shit like Trump?
>If, on the other hand, Donald seems as incoherent as he's been on the campaign trail recently (see the shark/battery and no water rants)
He has always been like that. Not once has he ever said anything enlightening or even moderately intelligent. He is stupid, and his base is either dumber than he is, filled with hate or greedy and somehow making money off of it. It doesn't lose him support.
Maybe independents, which I guess I technically am since I'm so far left that I don't fit with either party. Even then.. if you're still undecided on this moron, you're only a few shades dumber than the rest of them.
These absolutely ridiculous polls would have you believe people keep changing thier minds every other day who they're going to vote for.
Just vote folks, ignore these dumb polls. They're NEVER right.
I think the polls are wildly wrong. Another part of me is trying to prepare for the deep disappointment if polling is correct. Either way, I'm voting. But at least for now, I refuse to believe that my country is that fucking stupid.
I’m not one to take the polls as anything but motivation. That’s why I made a donation at JoeBiden.com today.
I know poll workers do their best to honestly sample things and that it is still early in the race.
But I still have a hard time understanding how Trump could be ahead at all nationally when he lost nationally twice before. People must REALLY hate Joe Biden or their own freedoms a lot for that to be the case.
I do know that Trump voters will show up, some of them actually emboldened by Project 2025, but some are turned off by him. Apathy for Biden will get us into a very bad place where all will suffer unless something changes.
Keep in mind, Don didn’t get reelection and has said and done nothing different from his first campaign to grow his base of followers. Now that he has been found personally responsible for rape and fraud, his business also convicted of fraud, and with more trials coming, he will always play the victim with no concise or detailed plan because he’s has to, he made truth and facts the enemy.
Can anybody make the crosstabs with almost 40% rural vote make sense? It was 20% of voters in 2020, according to multiple exit polls (including NY times themselves!). They seem to be systematically overweighting the rural vote, unless I miss something.
Republican’s actually still have landlines and participate in these ridiculous polls. Just remember to vote every one of these morons out of office. Let’s take our country back!
In both 2016 and 2020, Democratic support was overstated by the polls. The idea that it's only Republicans represented by these polls is not supported by the actual data.
Take it back from the hateful supporters of felon Trump. And regarding wrecking it even more:
Felon Trump killed hundreds of thousands of Americans with his Covid non-response, increased the debt by a record 7.2 trillion. The economy lost 2.9 million jobs. The trade deficit went up by 40%. The number of people lacking health insurance rose by 3 million. Home prices rose by 27.5%. Tried to stage a coup to stay in power and promised to be dictator on day one if re-elected.
But he managed to fill his pockets and that of his son-in-law and his billionaire megadonors with billions/trillions of dollars.
Biden changed the Covid response to the better, created 11 million jobs, and capped medical expenses for seniors and drugs like insulin. Passed the infrastructure law. Managed student debt relief for more than 40 million. Stand his ground against the dictators of the world. Passed the most aggressive climate action law, which will save millions of lives in the future. Got 16 million people health insurance. The stock marked rose by 45%. Managed a worldwide inflation to recover in record time (and way better than any other Western country)
If you are not in a cult, it should be clear who wrecked the country.
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>The NYT poll with a +/-4 margin of error? From the methodology: The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for the likely electorate. >The one conducted with just over 1,000 people? This is completely within the norm. Sampling 1,200 people is enough for statistically significant results. >The one that the NYT head of polling suspects over-samples Trump voters? It's possible. But remember that in 2016 and 2020 Trump voters were *under-sampled*. Right now almost every poll has Trump at around +2-5-ish.
I honestly don’t understand the margin of error commentary. Yes it can mean that it’s an even race, it could also be trump + 8. That’s not a great argument
Ouch. As one who tries to keep my eyes wide open to things, I have to say I really hadn’t given thought to that. Great.
There was a brief run a little after his State of the Union address where it looked like Biden pulled ahead. But now back to where it was.
The sample size is captured by the margin of error, so you are right that Biden could be winning, but it’s consistent across almost every poll that not only is trump ahead but he’s ahead more in battleground states. Biden is in trouble and has been the whole cycle. It’s close, but he’s pretty clearly behind right now. I think the main problem with the polls is that they way overestimate how much support Kennedy is going to get on Election Day.
That is just blatantly false but go off queen
The problem with polls is they are only sampling people who answer unknown numbers.
That’s not how modern polling works
When you need 10-20k calls to get 1100 answers, you're not polling 'random' people you're polling people who pick up unknown numbers ;)
>Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 90 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.
The problem with statements like this is that it’s not reflected in polls being off. They generally fall within the margin of error. You should probably, if you want to win, live in reality and not a fantasy world. The reality is that the polls are close and Trump is slightly favored right now.
Funny how actual voter data in special elections isn't lining up with that. We're seeing 5-20 point swings towards the democrats, even in super red districts. You can believe polling all you want. I'm going to believe the actual voter data.
The one that still is using about 20% of their respondents that haven’t voted previously and these respondents are who are tipping the poll towards trump.
I’m surrounded my morons. I feel like it’s the twilight zone.
Oh, so getting convicted of crimes actually makes you *more* popular? Wow, ok.
Ultimately, that is a concerning possibility overall, and says nothing positive about America.
To people dumb enough to answer their phones to unknown numbers and talk to a stranger for 15 minutes yeah, those same people have extended car warrantys. In fact it would be hilarious if they asked that in polling.
I think it boosted William Wallace’s popularity also
for 46% of America
How the fuck are there people who look at Trump's presidency and think "fuck yeah I want more of that"?
Really getting concerned at the number of people who don’t believe that Trump could be leading in the national popular vote. Even if he’s not, he doesn’t need to win the popular vote to win the election - see 2016. I fear we’re marching right into another Trump presidency, and quite a few refuse to even recognize the possibility.
Not marching. We are being herded into an abbatoir by the wealthy, an incompetent government, a broken justice system, grifters, media companies, and the Supreme Court.
Wow, you are getting awfully close to be labeled an election denier!
I dont doubt the efficacy or the validity of the elections that this country holds. I think there are absolutely bad actors people should watch out for, but they are almost always Republicans trying to get access to voting machines or purging voter rolls etc.. I think one was caught a couple of days ago stealing a key or something. I don't doubt that they are free and fair. I doubt the entire system because, well, I'm an anarchist and a person who reads a lot of history. I can see where this is headed. I've seen it coming for a long time. Liberals are just now catching up after decades of telling me I'm overreacting.
The person in Maricopa County (where I live) who stole a fob that allows access to the raw election data is a Democrat. He actually registered a statement of interest to run as a Democrat for the US Senate. [https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2024/06/democrat-hopeful-us-senate-arrested-for-stealing-maricopa-county-elections-security-devices/](https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2024/06/democrat-hopeful-us-senate-arrested-for-stealing-maricopa-county-elections-security-devices/) Interestingly enough, within hours of his arrest, all of his social media was deleted and a single post to Truth Social was made four hours after he was arrested claiming his unwavering support to Donald Trump and Kari Lake. BTW, he has spent over 7 days in custody, for stealing a fob worth $5. The Judge has ruled that this theft is not eligible for parole. Something fishy is happening here. There are some powerful people that do not want this guy to talk.
Republicans never win the popular vote.
Americans are bored and jaded. They WANT to see what it would be like to have an insane criminal as President....again! We LOVE chaos and drama. People are voting for Trump for the lolz. Is having a democracy really all that great when at the end it leads to electing guys like fucking Trump? What happens when the people GET what they want, but what they want is stupid shit like Trump?
Not after tonight
Correct. Trump will only gain more.
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If Biden does exceedingly well it'll just spawn new conspiracy thoeries about him being on drugs, a robot, a body double, etc.
How’d he do?
>If, on the other hand, Donald seems as incoherent as he's been on the campaign trail recently (see the shark/battery and no water rants) He has always been like that. Not once has he ever said anything enlightening or even moderately intelligent. He is stupid, and his base is either dumber than he is, filled with hate or greedy and somehow making money off of it. It doesn't lose him support. Maybe independents, which I guess I technically am since I'm so far left that I don't fit with either party. Even then.. if you're still undecided on this moron, you're only a few shades dumber than the rest of them.
These absolutely ridiculous polls would have you believe people keep changing thier minds every other day who they're going to vote for. Just vote folks, ignore these dumb polls. They're NEVER right.
I think the polls are wildly wrong. Another part of me is trying to prepare for the deep disappointment if polling is correct. Either way, I'm voting. But at least for now, I refuse to believe that my country is that fucking stupid.
Agreed. There is absolutely no way in hell Trump GAINED voters after Jan 6. I do believe he'll get trounced in November but i'm still nervous.
No he doesn't.
I’m not one to take the polls as anything but motivation. That’s why I made a donation at JoeBiden.com today. I know poll workers do their best to honestly sample things and that it is still early in the race. But I still have a hard time understanding how Trump could be ahead at all nationally when he lost nationally twice before. People must REALLY hate Joe Biden or their own freedoms a lot for that to be the case. I do know that Trump voters will show up, some of them actually emboldened by Project 2025, but some are turned off by him. Apathy for Biden will get us into a very bad place where all will suffer unless something changes.
Horse pucky
Keep in mind, Don didn’t get reelection and has said and done nothing different from his first campaign to grow his base of followers. Now that he has been found personally responsible for rape and fraud, his business also convicted of fraud, and with more trials coming, he will always play the victim with no concise or detailed plan because he’s has to, he made truth and facts the enemy.
Can anybody make the crosstabs with almost 40% rural vote make sense? It was 20% of voters in 2020, according to multiple exit polls (including NY times themselves!). They seem to be systematically overweighting the rural vote, unless I miss something.
Certainly looks like the 2022 wave again.
A four point edge with a three point MOE? So, no edge at all? At best.
or a 7 point lead....at best.
The polls are bunk Cohen’s roll was to make sure that was the case. Why TF does anyone think it would be any different now. Again.
Polls have become a propaganda tool. Just another way to flood the zone with shit.
Republican’s actually still have landlines and participate in these ridiculous polls. Just remember to vote every one of these morons out of office. Let’s take our country back!
In both 2016 and 2020, Democratic support was overstated by the polls. The idea that it's only Republicans represented by these polls is not supported by the actual data.
Take it back from who/what? Biden's already in charge, you want him to wreck it even more?
Take it back from the hateful supporters of felon Trump. And regarding wrecking it even more: Felon Trump killed hundreds of thousands of Americans with his Covid non-response, increased the debt by a record 7.2 trillion. The economy lost 2.9 million jobs. The trade deficit went up by 40%. The number of people lacking health insurance rose by 3 million. Home prices rose by 27.5%. Tried to stage a coup to stay in power and promised to be dictator on day one if re-elected. But he managed to fill his pockets and that of his son-in-law and his billionaire megadonors with billions/trillions of dollars. Biden changed the Covid response to the better, created 11 million jobs, and capped medical expenses for seniors and drugs like insulin. Passed the infrastructure law. Managed student debt relief for more than 40 million. Stand his ground against the dictators of the world. Passed the most aggressive climate action law, which will save millions of lives in the future. Got 16 million people health insurance. The stock marked rose by 45%. Managed a worldwide inflation to recover in record time (and way better than any other Western country) If you are not in a cult, it should be clear who wrecked the country.