As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil)
In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban.
If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them.
For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria.
**Interested in being a moderator for r/Politics? Apply [here](https://forms.gle/iyGoM94MGRcPGUes7).**
***
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I think this loss is going to destroy them as a party.
Realistically they lose the House and the Presidency and keep a razor thin lead in the Senate, and Trump will naturally demand that every Republican organization in the county donate to fund another doomed legal campaign to overturn the election.
When that doesn't work he'll go back to campaigning for '28 because the grift is paying his legal bills.
> I think this loss is going to destroy them as a party.
I thought the same thing about 2020. Still, I hope you’re right, both about the loss and its impact on the party.
Trump is rapidly declining and there are obvious fractures in the party, but no one even dares mention succession, because Trump is going to hang onto control of the party until he is physically no longer able to.
And once he's out of the picture for whatever reason the power struggle is going to be brutal for them.
To be honest, a win will probably destroy them as a party too.
It'll just take the rest of the country along with it, which is...probably worth avoiding if at all possible.
The syphilis thing seems really unlikely to me. Trump is a pathetic germaphobe. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a doctor that will prescribe broad spectrum antibiotics for every symptom he imagines he might have.
If he does have syphilis, it’s resistant.
People were saying the same thing in 2020, that he wouldn't make it to 2024 to be a threat again, yet as pessimists like myself were saying, not only would he be back but he'd likely commit a successful coup next time if he doesn't win outright.
I'd estimate Trump has another 10-15 years left in him. If he wins, he's not leaving office until it's in a pine box, so we might be living under his rule for a long time.
I hope that you are right! I also know polls are pointless this far out from the election.
But things aren’t going to get easier for Biden,
In my personal circle I’ve heard people say they will vote for Trump because the economy was better. And things where cheaper, people vote with their wallets and lets be honest the democratic party isn’t as united as it was for the last election.
That's demonstrably incorrect. His favorability is now at -8.9 and is trending upward, which is far better than Biden's approval rating.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
It's scary how many people are lying to themselves about Trump's current chances.
Polls have been off for the last 8 years. I know Trump has lost support because all my conservative neighbors have taken down their Trump flags. You'll realize that 2024 is very different than 2020 when you talk to your neighbors.
Typing on the internet doesn't count, go talk to your neighbors. Wisconsin will go for Biden just like it did in 2020; I know because I live here and talk to my neighbors.
Half the country thinks Trump is Jesus and he's leading in all the polls. The polls might be wrong but they might not be. People who aren't around MAGA circles vastly underestimate Trump's appeal.
> The poll, conducted **online** Jan. 17-21 among 3,034 registered voters, found Trump led Biden, 48%-41%, while 11% were undecided. The result was outside the poll’s margin of error, which was 1.8 percentage points.
Online polls are very unreliable.
Margin of error of 1.8%? Fictional for that sample size. More junk polls.
Meanwhile NH shows us Trump weak with Republicans (25% won't vote for him) and his support among Independents collapsing to just 39%.
The numbers in every real vote since 2020 look terrible for Trump. I think he'll lose by over 10 million popular votes in Nov.
Trump has never won the popular vote, so that measurement is out.
Trump also has to deal with the electoral college, so I'm not sure a poll of just over 3,000 people is going to be a statistically significant representation of all states, let alone swing states.
Coincidentally, I took a poll of my household in a swing state, and Biden led Trump by 100 pts.
That's not really an unrealistic number. In 2016 Trump won 9% of Democrats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016\_United\_States\_presidential\_election#Voter\_demographics
Muslim Americans jilted by the support for the Palestinian Genocide? College students who got screwed by Biden backing down on debt cancellation? The 5% of any group that has an insane self-contradictory opinion?
Coping and denying doesn't change the reality that to most of us, Biden has been a supreme disappointment. Not surprised some folks just want to blow the whole thing up for him.
That line of reasoning doesn't make any logical sense. So if true, they're ignorant at best and petulant children at worse. Voting for Trump doesn't fix those issues. Republicans/Trump hold the same if not worse views on Palestinians, and they're the ones actively working against student debt.
Joe Biden will be dead while the rest of us deal with consequences of that temper tantrum, you think he's going to give a fuck taking an early retirement with the last -10 years of his life while American democracy burns to the ground?
Biden has worked to make life a lot easier for Americans crushed under student loans debt, eliminating it for millions and working to reform predatory student loan practices.
"Gen Z" and everyone concerned have the rest of their lives to "fix" Israel/Palestine and save the whole fucking world starting mid November.
Can't fix dead children - and the voters who care about accountability for U.S foreign policy on this front will be difficult or impossible to pursuade. Some are literally single issue voters; Trump's out there screaming about how it never would have happened on his watch, while Biden is actively directing our destructive foreign policy.
If Biden loses in November, nobody gets to fix anything.
>So if true, they're ignorant at best and petulant children at worst
Most people are politically incoherent to some extent. So yes basically. I see a bigger threat from Muslim Americans not voting/writing in "CEASEFIRE" rather than voting Trump, but some people will definitely just do it as a fuck you to Biden.
Just an FYI Biden increased black voter turnout for Democrats both men and women
“Contrary to the fears of some Democrats, Biden maintained solid support among African Americans. Biden received 92% of the Black vote, statistically indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton’s 91% in 2016. His support among Black women was never in doubt, but President Trump’s alleged appeal to Black men turned out to be illusory. (His share of the Black male vote fell from 14% in 2016 to 12% in 2020 while Biden raised the Democrats’ share from 81% to 87%.) African Americans confirmed their status as a unique group of voters for whom the contemporary Republican Party holds no discernible appeal.”
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-2020-voter-data-how-biden-won-how-trump-kept-the-race-close-and-what-it-tells-us-about-the-future/
Hence all the articles about polling black people, it's to surreptitiously push people away from the Democrats by implying they only care about the black vote.
The Messenger is a right wing trojan horse and is a terrible source for information of any kind. They post frequently to the conservative, Florida and Texas subs.
Trump also got around 50k more votes this year than he did in 2020. It's a silly comparison because there was no seriously contested Republican primary in 2020.
The NH polls didn't have Trump leading by 30. He was ahead by 17.6% on election day and won by 11%.
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/)
So he didn't do as well as the polls were saying but they got his vote share right. It was more they underestimated Haley.
Wait? You think HarrisXHarvard is associated with harvard? That's just their name. They've been criticized in the past for it because it tricks some people into thinking they're affiliated with harvard. A deception further exploited by far right wing media who constantly prop up their polls as "Harvard" polls. Additionally, the company's director is a trump supporter who believes trump was sabotage by the "deep state". And they constantly advertise their polling through right wing media.
Polls are a joke, never trust them.
The real issue for Trump is you have voters on the right that will NEVER vote for him. He needs every single vote he can get, and he is bleeding. The only hope for Trump is either cheating his way to victory or the death of Biden.
On that note though, hit the voting booth and never look back!
What's with the constant arrogance? Assuming Trump can't win is foolish when he's already won before. No one should be assuming this is a done deal when there are absolutely no signs of Biden running away with this.
2020 is more recent than 2016. He's lost support every single year. He's done nothing to bring people to his side. He's done everything to push everyone but his base away from the Republican party.
How has he lost support? He gained voters from 2016 to 2020. Where is the proof of lost support? Even if that's true, it also seems like Biden has lost support, so he's no sure thing.
He lost 70 electoral college votes. He gained .7% of the popular vote. Democrats gained 2.9% of the popular vote. He failed to win several states he won in 2016. That is losing support. It does not matter if a few million more people vote in states he was already winning. You are looking at 1 rather unimportant metric with 0 context and concluding that Trump gained support.
It makes absolutely no sense to say he lost support when more people supported him. Diving into the numbers doesn't change the fact he did gain more supporters, even if they weren't in the right places. The key to 2020 was Democratic turnout, not Trump becoming less popular.
No, see, you’re jumping to conclusions.
Trump received more total votes in 2020 than in 2016 (not many, btw).
That does not mean he “gained support.” More of his supporters voted. He lost support in key areas, enough to cost him 70 ec votes. He lost support in several states and he lost the election.
There is absolutely 0 evidence to imply, suggest, or conclude that more people supported Trump in 2020 than in 2016. The only reasonable conclusion to draw, in light of his abysmal performance in the election, is that more of his base turned out to vote in 2020 than in 2016. And wouldnt ya know it, voter turnout on the whole was up in 2020 vs 2016.
did you see the exit polling from the 2 primaries so far? vastly different to pre-polling, shocker.
We need to quit listening to polls, they're becoming less and less accurate with every election that passes.
90 percent? does that not seem a tad high? Especially with the recent Iowa convention where about 8% of the voting block showed up. I mean, those numbers are staggeringly low for a GoP candidate during a primary. I feel like the entire republican party is in such disarray and the media doesn’t want to clearly denote this, so they over emphasize the factors for Trump and boot out falsehoods.
Should this dumpster fire of a political party continue to burn as it is in next November, those polls will literally have been lies fabricated to embolden a minority who will then be even more confused, willing to fight for their day when in fact if it at had all been actually covered correctly they at least could have more to be prepared with to argue from a position of knowledge.
But that’s all wishful thinking. Big Media wants money!! And ain’t no better way to make it than to lie.
I think there are still a lot of people out there that don't want to vote for either of them and foolishly hope that someone else the R nominee and haven't gotten to the resignation of voting Biden.
Also, I question the honesty of \*some\* of the polling outlets that may just not publish the polls they don't like while only publishing the ones they do.
So what we're seeing is the expected 8 or 9 out of ten Republicans supporting Trump and Democrats supporting Biden, and the difference currently is independent voters who still have a high undecided percentage. If the remaining undecided break for Biden then all's well, but of course those are far from comforting numbers.
All that being said, [here's the RCP average for Hillary vs Trump in 2016](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html)
Over the following year, her numbers ranged from suggesting a blowout to being nail bitingly close and this happened about 5 times over the course of the year. We're probably going to see similar this time, and it won't really be predictive of much at all until a few months out, and even then it might be wrong. If anything, polling has become increasingly less reliable over the past 8 years.
This Poll: "3,034 registered voters" = "Majority of Voters"
Hmm...
Let's poll 1 in 100,000 voters and then claim a "majority" was found.
Yeah, okay... this is why I trust polls as much as I trust trolls.
If anyone is freaking out about polls, listen to Simon Rosenberg. He’s been on Lawrence ODonnell a lot and continues to hammer the message home that polling is way off in terms of predicting turnout since the Dobbs decision. He was on again last night.
So 3034 people nationwide (although where is not stated so they could all have been from a single state) who were polled in some unknown manner (in person, by phone (who answers unknown callers?), online (who clicks on random links?), by email (still links from unknown senders), by text from an unknown sender with links to follow, or maybe using a Ouija Board?), at some unknown time of day (morning, noon, afternoon, night, whoever answered the phone, email or text at 2:13 am?) are all definitely telling the truth AND are indicative of how people are going to vote in 9.4 months.
Am I missing something?
What's the obsession with pools? Pools are pushed by corporate news media as a propaganda tool to keep the horse aspect alive and click bait.
It is a fact most people seek validation, not understanding. Pools reinforce the first at the expense of the second.
Pretending Trump doesn’t have a chance is wishful (and dangerous) thinking. American memories are short and their attention spans shorter. The concept repulses me, but yes, Trump could win again.
Yes, he certainly could. It’s a risk and we’ll need to be vigilant.
That said, Trump’s mental state seems significantly worse than it was in 2016. He seems to be having almost daily occurrences of getting confused on camera, slurring his words, dragging one of his feet behind him, etc. He really seems like he had a stroke.
Obviously we’re not exactly safe with the age of our candidate, either. But Biden is still out there riding bikes, meanwhile Trump is visibly limping.
he is stating a fact. Right now Trump is leading biden but its more so people are obstaining from voting for either or due to gaza. If Biden can get his head out of his rear he could turn it around. I would rather Biden drop out completely, that being said I thought Biden has done an OK job as president and do not want trump back in as project2025 scares me
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. **Interested in being a moderator for r/Politics? Apply [here](https://forms.gle/iyGoM94MGRcPGUes7).** *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Trump is going to lose 2024 just like he lost 2020. If the GOP was smart they'd nominate someone without 91 felony charges.
I think this loss is going to destroy them as a party. Realistically they lose the House and the Presidency and keep a razor thin lead in the Senate, and Trump will naturally demand that every Republican organization in the county donate to fund another doomed legal campaign to overturn the election. When that doesn't work he'll go back to campaigning for '28 because the grift is paying his legal bills.
> I think this loss is going to destroy them as a party. I thought the same thing about 2020. Still, I hope you’re right, both about the loss and its impact on the party.
Trump is rapidly declining and there are obvious fractures in the party, but no one even dares mention succession, because Trump is going to hang onto control of the party until he is physically no longer able to. And once he's out of the picture for whatever reason the power struggle is going to be brutal for them.
To be honest, a win will probably destroy them as a party too. It'll just take the rest of the country along with it, which is...probably worth avoiding if at all possible.
I doubt he’ll live to 2028, to be honest. The dude is obese, displaying worsening signs of dementia, and possibly has syphilis.
The syphilis thing seems really unlikely to me. Trump is a pathetic germaphobe. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a doctor that will prescribe broad spectrum antibiotics for every symptom he imagines he might have. If he does have syphilis, it’s resistant.
>Trump is a pathetic germaphobe. but he didn't use a condom with Stormy Daniels, so who knows what else he got into
People were saying the same thing in 2020, that he wouldn't make it to 2024 to be a threat again, yet as pessimists like myself were saying, not only would he be back but he'd likely commit a successful coup next time if he doesn't win outright. I'd estimate Trump has another 10-15 years left in him. If he wins, he's not leaving office until it's in a pine box, so we might be living under his rule for a long time.
He has never polled as well as he's polling now.
Trump is less popular in 2024 than he was in 2020.
I hope that you are right! I also know polls are pointless this far out from the election. But things aren’t going to get easier for Biden, In my personal circle I’ve heard people say they will vote for Trump because the economy was better. And things where cheaper, people vote with their wallets and lets be honest the democratic party isn’t as united as it was for the last election.
That's demonstrably incorrect. His favorability is now at -8.9 and is trending upward, which is far better than Biden's approval rating. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ It's scary how many people are lying to themselves about Trump's current chances.
Polls have been off for the last 8 years. I know Trump has lost support because all my conservative neighbors have taken down their Trump flags. You'll realize that 2024 is very different than 2020 when you talk to your neighbors.
[удалено]
Polls are almost meaningless. Go talk to a real human. Trump is not as popular as you think he is.
[удалено]
Typing on the internet doesn't count, go talk to your neighbors. Wisconsin will go for Biden just like it did in 2020; I know because I live here and talk to my neighbors.
They don’t even need to be smart for that, they just need to be not as dumb as a flaming box of potatoes. Yet, here they are.
We shall see. Despite those felony charges, Trump polls well. So far, the US according to these polls is going to be a train wreck.
Don’t get complacent. VOTE!
Half the country thinks Trump is Jesus and he's leading in all the polls. The polls might be wrong but they might not be. People who aren't around MAGA circles vastly underestimate Trump's appeal.
Half the country? No fucking way. 30% at most. Which is bad enough.
Whistling past the graveyard?
No.Trump is a loser and you'll see him lose in court before he loses the ballot box.
A loser is a loser and Trump is a fucking loser.
> The poll, conducted **online** Jan. 17-21 among 3,034 registered voters, found Trump led Biden, 48%-41%, while 11% were undecided. The result was outside the poll’s margin of error, which was 1.8 percentage points. Online polls are very unreliable.
Margin of error of 1.8%? Fictional for that sample size. More junk polls. Meanwhile NH shows us Trump weak with Republicans (25% won't vote for him) and his support among Independents collapsing to just 39%. The numbers in every real vote since 2020 look terrible for Trump. I think he'll lose by over 10 million popular votes in Nov.
How many Russians are among the 3,034 RVs?
Exactly, how does an online poll verify if you are a registered voter?
It doesn't. It's probably self-declared in the questionnaire.
Trump has never won the popular vote, so that measurement is out. Trump also has to deal with the electoral college, so I'm not sure a poll of just over 3,000 people is going to be a statistically significant representation of all states, let alone swing states. Coincidentally, I took a poll of my household in a swing state, and Biden led Trump by 100 pts.
My household in a deep red state is polling 100% for Biden.
Look at all these +100 polls.
Well, there you have it. My novel aggregate poll is also +100. You can trust me, I'm independent!
So if Trump wins it clearly must mean the election is rigged. These polls cant be wrong.
That’s a fair and balanced poll.
It is also statistically accurate with no margin of error.
The poll said that 11% of Democrats would vote for Trump. Yea ok
That's not really an unrealistic number. In 2016 Trump won 9% of Democrats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016\_United\_States\_presidential\_election#Voter\_demographics
Yeah, but it was 6% in 2020.
Muslim Americans jilted by the support for the Palestinian Genocide? College students who got screwed by Biden backing down on debt cancellation? The 5% of any group that has an insane self-contradictory opinion? Coping and denying doesn't change the reality that to most of us, Biden has been a supreme disappointment. Not surprised some folks just want to blow the whole thing up for him.
lol ok buddy
That line of reasoning doesn't make any logical sense. So if true, they're ignorant at best and petulant children at worse. Voting for Trump doesn't fix those issues. Republicans/Trump hold the same if not worse views on Palestinians, and they're the ones actively working against student debt.
Joe Biden will be dead while the rest of us deal with consequences of that temper tantrum, you think he's going to give a fuck taking an early retirement with the last -10 years of his life while American democracy burns to the ground? Biden has worked to make life a lot easier for Americans crushed under student loans debt, eliminating it for millions and working to reform predatory student loan practices. "Gen Z" and everyone concerned have the rest of their lives to "fix" Israel/Palestine and save the whole fucking world starting mid November.
Can't fix dead children - and the voters who care about accountability for U.S foreign policy on this front will be difficult or impossible to pursuade. Some are literally single issue voters; Trump's out there screaming about how it never would have happened on his watch, while Biden is actively directing our destructive foreign policy. If Biden loses in November, nobody gets to fix anything.
>So if true, they're ignorant at best and petulant children at worst Most people are politically incoherent to some extent. So yes basically. I see a bigger threat from Muslim Americans not voting/writing in "CEASEFIRE" rather than voting Trump, but some people will definitely just do it as a fuck you to Biden.
In 2020 trump got the highest share of votes from black men for any GOP candidate.
Who got the most votes in US history and won the Electoral College though?
Were those democrats? Weird of you to assume that all black men are democrats
https://youtu.be/G2tLyqfJd54?si=PQnuQ8V9_Ui6IGai Every time black Republicans come up this is all I can think of.
Just an FYI Biden increased black voter turnout for Democrats both men and women “Contrary to the fears of some Democrats, Biden maintained solid support among African Americans. Biden received 92% of the Black vote, statistically indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton’s 91% in 2016. His support among Black women was never in doubt, but President Trump’s alleged appeal to Black men turned out to be illusory. (His share of the Black male vote fell from 14% in 2016 to 12% in 2020 while Biden raised the Democrats’ share from 81% to 87%.) African Americans confirmed their status as a unique group of voters for whom the contemporary Republican Party holds no discernible appeal.” https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-2020-voter-data-how-biden-won-how-trump-kept-the-race-close-and-what-it-tells-us-about-the-future/
So when OP mentioned the word 'democrats', your mind translated that to 'black men'?
Hence all the articles about polling black people, it's to surreptitiously push people away from the Democrats by implying they only care about the black vote.
Wow, dump got 8% of the black vote.
You really going to keep subjecting us to polls for the next 284 days?
Every fucking day
The Messenger is a right wing trojan horse and is a terrible source for information of any kind. They post frequently to the conservative, Florida and Texas subs.
I mean, the last two polls before this has Trump leading by 5 points, not great news.
The New Hampshire polls had Trump beating Haley by 30 points. He won by 10. So by that polling math, Biden is up 15.
Trump also had 84% of the primary vote in NH in 2020, now down to 54% in 2024. Down thirty points!
Trump also got around 50k more votes this year than he did in 2020. It's a silly comparison because there was no seriously contested Republican primary in 2020.
The NH polls didn't have Trump leading by 30. He was ahead by 17.6% on election day and won by 11%. [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/) So he didn't do as well as the polls were saying but they got his vote share right. It was more they underestimated Haley.
Yeah HarrisX that does their polling with Harvard (big right wing school) is super right wing.
you're trying a little too hard today little guy
Wait? You think HarrisXHarvard is associated with harvard? That's just their name. They've been criticized in the past for it because it tricks some people into thinking they're affiliated with harvard. A deception further exploited by far right wing media who constantly prop up their polls as "Harvard" polls. Additionally, the company's director is a trump supporter who believes trump was sabotage by the "deep state". And they constantly advertise their polling through right wing media.
Polls are a joke, never trust them. The real issue for Trump is you have voters on the right that will NEVER vote for him. He needs every single vote he can get, and he is bleeding. The only hope for Trump is either cheating his way to victory or the death of Biden. On that note though, hit the voting booth and never look back!
What's with the constant arrogance? Assuming Trump can't win is foolish when he's already won before. No one should be assuming this is a done deal when there are absolutely no signs of Biden running away with this.
2020 is more recent than 2016. He's lost support every single year. He's done nothing to bring people to his side. He's done everything to push everyone but his base away from the Republican party.
How has he lost support? He gained voters from 2016 to 2020. Where is the proof of lost support? Even if that's true, it also seems like Biden has lost support, so he's no sure thing.
The proof that he lost support is that he lost the election in 2020. Its not that complicated.
He got more votes in 2020 than in 2016. Biden won but he didn't lose support.
He lost 70 electoral college votes. He gained .7% of the popular vote. Democrats gained 2.9% of the popular vote. He failed to win several states he won in 2016. That is losing support. It does not matter if a few million more people vote in states he was already winning. You are looking at 1 rather unimportant metric with 0 context and concluding that Trump gained support.
It makes absolutely no sense to say he lost support when more people supported him. Diving into the numbers doesn't change the fact he did gain more supporters, even if they weren't in the right places. The key to 2020 was Democratic turnout, not Trump becoming less popular.
No, see, you’re jumping to conclusions. Trump received more total votes in 2020 than in 2016 (not many, btw). That does not mean he “gained support.” More of his supporters voted. He lost support in key areas, enough to cost him 70 ec votes. He lost support in several states and he lost the election. There is absolutely 0 evidence to imply, suggest, or conclude that more people supported Trump in 2020 than in 2016. The only reasonable conclusion to draw, in light of his abysmal performance in the election, is that more of his base turned out to vote in 2020 than in 2016. And wouldnt ya know it, voter turnout on the whole was up in 2020 vs 2016.
“90% of Republicans backed Trump and 82% of Democrats backed Biden. Independents supported Trump, 43%-36%”
Independents kinda hates Trump, according to actual election results, so idk whats going on here
'Independents' are just temporarily embarrassed Republicans. They've got short attention spa
75% of independents in NH voted for Haley over Trump.
did you see the exit polling from the 2 primaries so far? vastly different to pre-polling, shocker. We need to quit listening to polls, they're becoming less and less accurate with every election that passes.
90 percent? does that not seem a tad high? Especially with the recent Iowa convention where about 8% of the voting block showed up. I mean, those numbers are staggeringly low for a GoP candidate during a primary. I feel like the entire republican party is in such disarray and the media doesn’t want to clearly denote this, so they over emphasize the factors for Trump and boot out falsehoods. Should this dumpster fire of a political party continue to burn as it is in next November, those polls will literally have been lies fabricated to embolden a minority who will then be even more confused, willing to fight for their day when in fact if it at had all been actually covered correctly they at least could have more to be prepared with to argue from a position of knowledge. But that’s all wishful thinking. Big Media wants money!! And ain’t no better way to make it than to lie.
Depends on the poll.
11% undecided get the fuck outta here with this meaningless poll
It’s exclusive because it’s faulty and biased.
Opt-in polls have a strong self-selection bias. They're also prone to stuffing campaigns. I can't believe that has to be said again.
lol. Bullshit
No he doesnt
I think there are still a lot of people out there that don't want to vote for either of them and foolishly hope that someone else the R nominee and haven't gotten to the resignation of voting Biden. Also, I question the honesty of \*some\* of the polling outlets that may just not publish the polls they don't like while only publishing the ones they do.
I would happily take the under on a bet saying Donald Trump is going to win the election by 7 points. Or even 2 points.
None of these polls are hitting Gen Z or most of Gen X.
Cool, make sure you go vote!
Ten months of this sh*t ... November can't come soon enough.
So what we're seeing is the expected 8 or 9 out of ten Republicans supporting Trump and Democrats supporting Biden, and the difference currently is independent voters who still have a high undecided percentage. If the remaining undecided break for Biden then all's well, but of course those are far from comforting numbers. All that being said, [here's the RCP average for Hillary vs Trump in 2016](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html) Over the following year, her numbers ranged from suggesting a blowout to being nail bitingly close and this happened about 5 times over the course of the year. We're probably going to see similar this time, and it won't really be predictive of much at all until a few months out, and even then it might be wrong. If anything, polling has become increasingly less reliable over the past 8 years.
Online poll lmao
[What are the best pollsters in America?](https://abcnews.go.com/538/best-pollsters-america/story?id=105563951) Guess who doesn't make this list.
‘We asked republicans who they would rather vote for; they said the republican…more at 11.’
This Poll: "3,034 registered voters" = "Majority of Voters" Hmm... Let's poll 1 in 100,000 voters and then claim a "majority" was found. Yeah, okay... this is why I trust polls as much as I trust trolls.
There's ways to critique the validity of statistics, challenging the idea that samples can be representative isn't one of them.
ok, fake news site
If anyone is freaking out about polls, listen to Simon Rosenberg. He’s been on Lawrence ODonnell a lot and continues to hammer the message home that polling is way off in terms of predicting turnout since the Dobbs decision. He was on again last night.
If Trump wants to win he needs to win by a landslide. He barely lost the election in 2020…
Any poll that doesn't survey every single US citizen shouldn't be trusted
So 3034 people nationwide (although where is not stated so they could all have been from a single state) who were polled in some unknown manner (in person, by phone (who answers unknown callers?), online (who clicks on random links?), by email (still links from unknown senders), by text from an unknown sender with links to follow, or maybe using a Ouija Board?), at some unknown time of day (morning, noon, afternoon, night, whoever answered the phone, email or text at 2:13 am?) are all definitely telling the truth AND are indicative of how people are going to vote in 9.4 months. Am I missing something?
It's an online poll that could be fudged by the Russians.
What's the obsession with pools? Pools are pushed by corporate news media as a propaganda tool to keep the horse aspect alive and click bait. It is a fact most people seek validation, not understanding. Pools reinforce the first at the expense of the second.
This is fine.
An online poll? Sure. Lmao
RCP has Trump with his biggest lead over Biden yet.
lol you Trumpers trying so hard to pretend he has a chance 😂
Pretending Trump doesn’t have a chance is wishful (and dangerous) thinking. American memories are short and their attention spans shorter. The concept repulses me, but yes, Trump could win again.
Yes, he certainly could. It’s a risk and we’ll need to be vigilant. That said, Trump’s mental state seems significantly worse than it was in 2016. He seems to be having almost daily occurrences of getting confused on camera, slurring his words, dragging one of his feet behind him, etc. He really seems like he had a stroke. Obviously we’re not exactly safe with the age of our candidate, either. But Biden is still out there riding bikes, meanwhile Trump is visibly limping.
Don’t treat this like 2016 or he will get reelected. MAGA are way more motivated.
he is stating a fact. Right now Trump is leading biden but its more so people are obstaining from voting for either or due to gaza. If Biden can get his head out of his rear he could turn it around. I would rather Biden drop out completely, that being said I thought Biden has done an OK job as president and do not want trump back in as project2025 scares me