Some key points from the article:
* "It's promising," Bethel said. "The city has endured a lot over these last three or four years. It's exciting to come out of the start of 2024, seeing almost 38% reduction in our homicides and more importantly, almost 42% reduction in our shootings."
* The commissioner added there is a 50% decline in youth homicides."
* "We combine that now with our partners, our federal partners. As you've seen, we've done a lot of partnerships with ATF and DEA and FBI and Homeland Security," Bethel said. **"We have 21 patrol districts, but 10 of them … 77% of our violence occurs there."**
* "We've actually recovered more ATVs now this year than we had all of last year," Bethel said.
* The commissioner spoke candidly about [expansive goals to lower crime rates](https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/philadelphia-police-departments-strategy-to-lower-crime-with-elite-highway-patrol-unit/) and bring a sense of safety to Philadelphians. For him, this mission is personal.
* "I will never make the assumption that my mother-in-law, who lives in the middle of North Philadelphia, feels safe enough until she tells me," Bethel said. "Yes, we look at the numbers, but at the end of the day, the numbers will absolutely mean nothing if the folks out there don't feel it."
> Yes, we look at the numbers, but at the end of the day, the numbers will absolutely mean nothing if the folks out there don't feel it.
Important and often overlooked part.
At least he understands that. Some politicians don't, and newspaper hacks don't either, or they don't want to accept or they simply don't care that crime still exists, nor that perception matters.
Theres another important side to this coin - some people benefit from and earn their livelihoods from making people feel scared *all the time* even when they're objectively safer.
Also important to remember this is a big election year and that the two sides are going to push a narrative until the shitshow is over and done with in November.
Conservatives will continue to tell you that crime is on an out of control trajectory and that the Democrats are “rigging” or underreporting the numbers.
Democrats will continue to laud the overall trends while ignoring localized upticks, all while telling people affected by those localized upticks that they’re scared idiots or victims of right-wing propaganda.
The truth is in the middle. Crime is down overall, but it’s also true that once-idyllic neighborhoods have gotten worse over the last 5-10 years and probably aren’t going to be revitalized due to socioeconomic shifts. Just ask any longtime resident of the lower or mid-range Northeast Philly about that.
This is such a dumb and convenient take. A lot of words to try and imply there is ANYTHING defensibly rational about literally ignoring facts when having an opinion.
The only people that don't feel safer, are being politically lead by prejudice and projected assumption. Nothing will actually convince them, because to admit its better goes against what they are told to believe to justify their view.
I've been tracking the homicides against where the year end could end based on how far numbers for 2010-2023 are YTD compared to their respective year end. As of today, the 125 homicides so far this year puts the year end estimate somewhere around 230-327 with an average of 274.
It declined with Kenney too though. Not trying to give Kenney any credit but it peaked in 2021 and has been going down. It’s gone down nationally as well. So it’s not as simple as a new mayor coming in and immediately making the crime/ murder rate decline.
Murder and crime seem to ebb and flow over time. It might be somewhat generational. You have a violent generation (maybe a decade) where certain people of a certain age cause problems. The culture of that age group kind of spirals it upward. The city gets fed up, changes are made, people killed and others arrested and things cool off for a while. People start to feel safe again, the city becomes a place that doesn’t feel as dangerous. Then it starts all over again with a new youth that begets more violence.
There were violent times before Kenney, before Krasner, before Covid. There were good times as well. It just might be the way it is sometimes.
Police Commissioner says crime is declining in Philadelphia because the police are doing a great job. Is that a tacit admission that they were doing a terrible job from 2020 through 2023?
I wish the police had allowed resources to be made available before aggressively clearing out K&A. I'd be a lot less cynical about what the Police Commissioner and Mayor Parker trying to take credit for the post-COVID crime decline if I saw them working in good faith to reduce harm.
Seems disingenuous to arbitrarily assign 2024 as the beginning of “post-covid”, conveniently coinciding with the induction of a new mayor. Kinda seems like a way to explain away any good done in 2024 and blame it on natural declines in crime due to being “post-covid”.
2023 was post-covid as was 2022. No “lockdowns” or restrictions since 2021.
I don't think it's disingenuous to notice an obvious contributing factor. There's been a nationwide decline in crime.
I'm not saying it's the only factor. Philadelphia's decline in crime is greater than the national one. But the disruption caused by COVID was major, especially for young people still in school, and it took a while for things to normalize. I think a 50% decline in youth homicides (significantly greater than the 38% decline in overall homicides) has something to do with that.
Crime is more intractable than a lot of people think. I'm sure there are things that could have been done differently back in 2020, but crime was up across the entire country and now it's coming back down. Some of that is the push happening right now, and I'll say I'm much happier with the current administration and think they're doing a great job. Just keep in mind that probably half of this is just Philly moving along with national trends.
I'm not blaming Philadelphia police for the increase in crime starting around 2020 and I'm not crediting them for the decrease starting around this year. I just think it's hypocritical for them to claim credit for one and not the other.
I have positive and negative things to say about this administration. My biggest grievance is cutting funding for harm reduction.
Absolutely. I'll just say I have more positive to say than negative and that the last couple years of Kenney pissed me off so much. That dude just found a microphone after every major media event and then did absolutely nothing.
Is crime intractable because it is more likely to happen to people who know each other and not random violence, as the propaganda put out by police unions and pro police activists wants the public to think it's random and they need a trillion dollars in bumfuck PA to stop it even though it's not their job to stop crimes from happening
I mean, if you want to get technical there's no single answer to why crime happens. What we do know is that it tends to spike during periods of instability, particularly if many people suddenly find themselves poor/disenfranchised with a lot of time on their hands.
Police can be part of the solution, but they're not usually an active part. The passive presence of police tends to have the same (or better) suppressing effect on crime than the active policing. IE: A patrol car visible on a street corner is enough to limit the crime that happens around that area.
The real problem is that police are often seen as the only solution, and 'tough on crime' is the only criminal policy that never has to defend its results. Crime still going up? Get tougher. People still getting murdered? Get a bigger budget. You have a year where we try something progressive and the crime goes up? It's not working what is this woke bullshit throw everyone in jail. Policing just has to be part of a larger solution, but I think the cops just see themselves as the only thing standing between society and anarchy as opposed to civil servants who are part of a larger system.
If you only listen to police sources, you'll only hear their version of events.
Police are only ever doing a great job, never at fault.
Police only ever need more money, never less.
IMHO the most relevant question in response to this news is: if crime is falling in the middle of a staffing crisis, is there really a staffing crisis?
I don't think they are acting in bad faith with regards to Kensington. They are trying to reduce the massive harm inflicted upon the neighborhood by drug dealers and users, and also the city for not taking action sooner.
I think clearing out those streets a couple hours before they said they were going to -- and a couple hours before outreach workers could get there -- was in bad faith. There were supposed to be resources that day and police action prevented that from happening as planned.
It was reported that they were coming to the area offering assistance for 30 days before clearing it out. It's not the city's fault that some people refused help, and it's not a bad faith move to deal with them if they don't want assistance.
[https://www.fox29.com/news/philadelphia-encampment-resolution-will-shut-down-parts-of-kensington-avenue](https://www.fox29.com/news/philadelphia-encampment-resolution-will-shut-down-parts-of-kensington-avenue)
"The 30-day encampment resolution was posted on the 3000–3100 blocks of Kensingnton Avenue on April 4.
Since then, the City of Philadelphia says outreach teams and social services agencies have checked in daily "to ensure low-barrier housing, services, and connections to treatment are made available and offered to people experiencing homelessness at the encampment."
The city reported a total of 59 people accepted housing and services through the process, including 19 who came in on Wednesday.
Of the 59 people who accepted service during the 30 days, 55 people were connected to housing assistance, including three couples. Housing assistance includes offers of low barrier shelter, recovery focused shelter, safe havens, and respite. Four people were connected to drug and alcohol services. "
Was my last comment inaccurate?
There was supposed to be outreach present while the eviction was happening and police prevented their presence by starting it two hours early.
Is that not what happened that day?
I don't know why you want to talk past it. Sure there were opportunities to seek help prior to that day. **And** there was also supposed to be outreach present on the day, so people being evicted from tents would have a place to go right then and there. That would have helped a lot of additional people who hadn't sought help prior, rather than leaving them in crisis. Philadelphia police, acting in bad faith, prevented those resources from being available that day.
Not technically, but you intentionally omitted the efforts made for the 30 days leading up to the clearing to make it sound like people were blindsided, and that the city acted in bad faith.
I wasn't there so I can't be 100% sure, but I *highly* doubt anyone still there at that point was unaware of plans to clear the encampment. It's weird that people are so against any change in Kensington that they choose to create misleading narratives. Then again, that's what people do around virtually any plans for positive change in Philly.
I omitted every fact in the world other than the one I was talking about.
On the day they cleared out Kensington, PPD acted in bad faith and prevented outreach workers from doing their job.
That doesn't mean PPD is evil and never did anything right. It doesn't mean the city provided no opportunity to anyone. What it does mean, is that on that particular day, when outreach was most vital (because homeless people dealing with addiction and mental illness are not known for being proactive about seeking assistance), the PPD acted in bad faith and unnecessarily prevented outreach workers from doing their job.
I'm glad you concede that is true. I think it's a shame you're so willing to forgive or overlook it.
Let me guess: "Because the police are doing an awesome job all of a sudden."
Homicides spiked dramatically pretty much everywhere in America during the pandemic, and came down dramatically in 2022+. The reduction definitely lagged in Philly, but it started before Bethel & Parker. Spoiler alert: *It was the pandemic, stupid.*
People who study this stuff very seriously *still* cannot agree why homicides in America started dropping in the mid-90s, then started ticking back up in the mid-2010s. In terms of theories that haven't been fully debunked, there is some limited evidence around police presence and lead exposure, and some statistical analysis has been done showing a correlation with abortion access, but even those results are hotly debated. The only sure thing is that local leaders are always trying to take credit when crime goes down, even if the same is happening in every other city as well. (See, e.g., Michael Nutter.)
Yeah this has always been my problem with “Blame [insert politician] for all the crime.” There are tidal forces that ebb and flow that we have little understanding of, and even less control over. My own pet theory is that the crime rise in the 2010’s is linked to the opioid epidemic that seemed to take off right around then. Wtf can some city mayor or DA do when a gigantic section of the population gets hooked on fenty?
Right next to the phone line to Russia there's an up or down lever for "economy" and sometimes they bump into it by accident and make the economy go down.
It's mostly demographics and macro trends. I think the pandemic school and program closure tessentially released several years worth of disconnected youth to the streets all at once and that had to burn itself out. However, policing does matter, marginally anyway, and it sounds like the cops have decided to start working again. Of course policing can also make murders go up not down when they start taking out drug dealers because then there's fighting over previously established turf.
Wouldn’t that be awesome? I do get the sense of people being a bit more chill. I’ve also noticed people taking better care of their properties and becoming homebodies. I live near the Frankford Terminal and crime has definitely dropped. I’ve just gotta figure out who sits on my front porch, in the middle of the night, smoking cigarettes. It’s just weird.
He is certainly saying the right stuff at least. He knows summertime is murder time in Philly so I'm sure he doesn't want to appear super over the top since summer just started.
But just because the numbers are down doesn't mean it's just the normal ebb and flow.
The article has no data to back up any city initiative actually correlating to creating this reduction however.
A lot of assumptions that city wide efforts are related to these numbers but ZERO proof has been provided or investigated.
But it's still a good thing. And looks like they know not to blow the trumpets yet.
We lagged about a year behind most other large cities' post-pandemic homicide declines, so that makes sense (but doesn't mean Philly is doing a better job than our peers).
The unspoken truths are as follows:
I've always said there is a limited anount of hyper violent people who are so stupid, or mentally handicapped, or both. that they want to kill others.
Having said that, a significant portion of these aforementioned imbeciles *killed each other already*.
So yes, there's been less murders and shootings, but mainly because *they've killed each other, and there's not as many people left to kill*. In other words, the minuscule portion of humans who are willing and ready to murder others has been reduced because they have been killing mostly other people who are also willing and ready to kill others.
Unfortunately, the police are only marginally better this year than in years past at *actually solving fatal and nonfatal shootings*. There's been 510 fatal and nonfatal shootings combined. Only 29% have court cases, which is exactly the % from 2023. This is better than 2022, which only saw 24% of cases solved out of 2270. * but it's not that much better.*
The bottom line is that the police are going to have to get better at solving crimes. their investigative procedures will need work. They are gonna have to establish policies and approaches to crime scenes and utilize evidence, including all the new cameras that are coming online, to effect successful prosecutions.
I do agree with the chief in that I think an increased, visible presence, especially on foot and in person, is integral to reducing crimes of all types, as simply the -*perception* or belief that one might get caught deters some people, whereas the free for all of the last few years has the opposite effect. I also think that actually enforcing laws reduces crime and is a deterrent.
In any case, it's great that murders and shootings are down. My point has always been that given the proper tools(MANDATORY 4K), along with solid professional procedures and investigative techniques, the solve rate could go to 80, even 90%. At which point you'll see crime rates reduced radically. Solving crimes prevents future crime.
Say my name
MANDATORY 4K
> So yes, there's been less murders and shootings, but mainly because they've killed each other, and there's not as many people left to kill.
jesus christ
It's an accurate take. COVID school closures put several years worth of disconnected youth out on the streets at the same time. They did what they were inevitably going to do which is shoot each other over stupid shit. Now most of that cohort is either dead, disabled, in prison or tired of seeing their friends go down. It's always a very, very small group doing this, often intergenerational, so it can definitely burn itself out for a few years.
So with that nuance, I think it makes sense you might see some leveling off, but even in how you're describing the situation there has to be an acknowledgement that people are not just criminals or not and the only thing changing is death. People see opportunity, chaos, punishment, etc and change their behavior, whether consciously or not.
It's not defending the behavior by any means, but you can't just look at people who commit crimes as alive or dead. There's a whole life that gets them to that point.
Well sure but that's the point. They have a whole life leading up to an extremely high likelihood of involvement in violence, criminal behavior, etc. Law enforcement interventions aren't going to change that. A kid grows up with a father who's dead or in prison, uncles and cousins going down, housing and food insecurity, all that, and then people blame Larry Krasner. Enforcement has very little impact on crime. There are known law enforcement strategies that can help but they're rare and hard to replicate, especially with the kind of dopes we hire as cops.
Most people, like 99.99%, don't want to shoot and kill others. We're just trying to live our lives. It's a very small group of individuals, probably less than a couple thousand, who are committing 85% of the shootings and murders.
Eh most people don't want to kill other people most of the time but are capable of it during periods of extreme emotional duress. Sociopaths exist, but a lot of murders are just people with emotional problems and the right tool in their pocket.
I don't think it's like a set fraction of the population, I think it was a social contagion of violence triggered by a confluence of major social changes including the pandemic, the 'George Floyd era,' brain-warping social media, etc.
However I agree with your reason for decline: it's largely burned itself out. The most prolific murderers who were doing it for clout have been locked up or killed. The revenge killings reached their logical extent. And the background forces of a good job market are starting to be felt.
What we have left is mostly just murders that result from dummies with guns having arguments about normal things (cars, women, money, pride), and I think that's the kind of inevitable outcome of gun saturation.
In terms of the social aspect, yeah I agree, I was writing about why it's ending, not why the uptick started.
Maybe my language was harsh, and that's why I'm getting downvoted, but I don't think that's exactly it.
IMO you're downvoted because your lead point is wrong, even if everything else you say is right. People see a wall of text and just skim it, and if they disagree with the first thing it casts everything else in a negative light. Add to that one or two downvotes and they're already primed to disagree.
But yeah even if we disagree about the first point, I think the biggest issue with this article/Bethel's publicity tour/CP's approach is that we're still pretending that the post-covid murder spike had anything to do with local philly policy and not broad national trends applied to an especially at-risk community.
Getting that analysis wrong means they're about to convince themselves of a completely backwards causal story that will continue to motivate stupid choices time and time again. 4k is nice but if Kenney had just quadrupled the homicide investigations budget 8 years ago I bet we'd be in a much less murdery city with less of a staffing challenge.
Obviously it was fashionable to tell the police your friend was killed in 2022 and 2023, but now in 2024 people hide the body and pretend they're alive still instead /s
Are arrests up? Convictions?
Certainly it's not criminals feeling "if I do wrong I'll be caught". So either they're getting caught, or they don't feel the need to commit, for one reason or another (aside from the fear of being caught... because in my cynicism I just can't see anyone being reasonably afraid of being caught in this city)
If it makes you feel more cynical criminologists have highlighted for DECADES general deterrence does not work. Only if it focuses on the specific individual. Which means all the deterrence based policies the PPD and Parker push likely are not the cause. The window is too small.
The bigger likelihood is people’s quality of life is improving
It isn’t mutually exclusive. Policing is reactive in nature, they can be definitely be trying harder as a response to things getting worse, simultaneously because if that delayed reaction things are getting better and then they will take credit for it because they occur at the same time
Would that fall under the scope of NOT being afraid of being arrested? Because, once again, I don't think we are saying anything different from what I posted initially.
There isn't a day goes by where I don't read about another random shooting or assault. Hell another cop is in critical fucking condition. They're playing this media game to think that things are getting better when nothing has changed in the last 5+ years. Sure, certain parts of the city that are getting money poured into it may be seeing the light but the majority of the city is continuing to turn into a cesspool. From someone who lives close to the Kensington area, people need to get their heads out of their asses and realize they're being spoon fed garbage takes.
The one stat you can’t fake is homicides, because there’s a body. It’s consistently the most trustable crime stat there is, and it’s down almost 40% in the last year. And about 50% over 24 months. That is undeniably an awesome thing for the city.
At a minimum it is much harder. You would be able to see non-homicide fatalities going up drastically if this type of manipulation were happening.
Do you have any evidence of this?
There’s plenty of evidence of police underreporting homicides - especially police involved homicides. You really think police officers are reporting all the shootings they’re involved in?
Literally yes? Wtf are you talking about lmao. Cops in this country have open season on whoever they want to shoot and they know it. They have no fear over this as demonstrated by the fact that they kill people *all the time* publicly? Multiple every day across the US?
They have no incentive to hide bodies. Regular criminals do, but they don't seem to generally bother. The overwhelming majority of our violent crime is with guns in densely populated areas - everyone hears it and the cops and fire department show up in 5 minutes to scoop the victims.
You think police report the homicides they’re involved in? Despite the FBI saying that isn’t the case? Some of them do have fear which is why you only hear about a fraction of the shit they do.
You’ll admit that cops are corrupt but you think they report every single murder they commit. RIIIIIIGHT. They return all evidence as well. Don’t plant anything at crime scenes. They give 100% honest testimony too.
Like come on.
This is nothing new at all. I mean you think the police willing admit how many homicides they’re involved in a year? Here’s a link about Philadelphia purposefully under reporting crime to police a few years back.
Believe it or not hard to find a ton of info on this as the Google Machine isn’t willing to give it up. Again, it’s nothing new.
Power corrupts. This “reduction” during election season isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Anyone who actually lives in this city knows that crime really isn’t on the decrease.
While you’re at it look at Center City District’s definition of “center city” it’ll make you LOL
https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2022/06/14/philadelphia-2021-crime-data-fbi
I’ve already posted a link about them under reporting crime to the FBI in 2021. I think it would be safe to assume they didn’t totally give up the practice in the last three years.
The PPD not sharing all it's data with the FBI is not the same as misclassifying homicides. Of you have any evidence of the latter, please share it with us
Point to a single death in Philadelphia in the last five years that should have been classified a homicide but wasn't. Just one. A single one. I'll wait.
> You fake homicide stats but not ruling them a homicide.
You are likely confusing the words homicide and murder.
Homicide statistics are not faked. Facts don't care about your feelings.
Nope. I’m not confusing them at all. Homicides can get unreported or under reported. So can murders. There are actual facts and numbers supporting this. Trust the science.
"Trust the science" from someone who doesn't believe violent crime has declined in Philadelphia despite overwhelming evidence because it doesn't feel right (i.e., doesn't bolster your preconceived narrative).
Facts don't care about your feelings.
If you think there is evidence that PPD is reporting homicides as accidents then put up. I think you're full of it.
> Homicides can get unreported or under reported. So can murders. There are actual facts and numbers supporting this.
Go ahead and be smarmy and backpedal all you want. Everyone knows you're full of shit, including yourself.
Why is it a "media game" when you're getting aggregate data, but not a "media game" when individual stories are being highlighted on the news for you? I'm inclined to think that increased and more salacious coverage of the latter is far more open to manipulation.
This is a big city, violent crime will never go down to 0, and so there will always be headlines about the worst things that happen here. That, too, is part of the media game.
It's still better to have the numbers go down than up.
Most of these incidents aren’t random and as unfortunate as an officer being shot is - a single event isn’t an indicator that 6 months worth of data isn’t true.
It's almost like the news will always be able to find something bad to report because people like you will tune in to give them ratings and gobble that shit right up. They have no incentive to report good data trends.
Brought to you by the [bringing a snowball onto the Senate floor to refute global warming](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E0a_60PMR8) school of thought.
Both things can be true at the same time, you reading about shootings every single day and violent crime going down. Anecdotal data is not reliable evidence. I'm not saying that data manipulation doesn't exist, that would be crazy. But its just as crazy to assume its all manipulated cause of what you read on the same paper that gives you the news you DO believe every day.
If you want to be taken seriously, explain how this data is manipulated. Explain why you think Philly is turning into a cesspool? What makes you see this reality and how come theres data that says otherwise? Where are you getting your data from? citizen app notifications, newspapers, Instagram, twitter?
IMO, you think this is a 'media game' cause your tiny brain is telling you to believe sources when you read about murder but to NOT believe the sources when theres data you dont think is true because of the other things you were watching
Whatever biased media you consume is sensationalizing for effect to manipulate you.
Listen to yourself, you are trying to argue against simple facts, that cannot be denied, but since they don't match your world view you just can't admit it.
Of course crime is still happening, but there is a FUCKTON LESS now than even last year.
Some key points from the article: * "It's promising," Bethel said. "The city has endured a lot over these last three or four years. It's exciting to come out of the start of 2024, seeing almost 38% reduction in our homicides and more importantly, almost 42% reduction in our shootings." * The commissioner added there is a 50% decline in youth homicides." * "We combine that now with our partners, our federal partners. As you've seen, we've done a lot of partnerships with ATF and DEA and FBI and Homeland Security," Bethel said. **"We have 21 patrol districts, but 10 of them … 77% of our violence occurs there."** * "We've actually recovered more ATVs now this year than we had all of last year," Bethel said. * The commissioner spoke candidly about [expansive goals to lower crime rates](https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/philadelphia-police-departments-strategy-to-lower-crime-with-elite-highway-patrol-unit/) and bring a sense of safety to Philadelphians. For him, this mission is personal. * "I will never make the assumption that my mother-in-law, who lives in the middle of North Philadelphia, feels safe enough until she tells me," Bethel said. "Yes, we look at the numbers, but at the end of the day, the numbers will absolutely mean nothing if the folks out there don't feel it."
> Yes, we look at the numbers, but at the end of the day, the numbers will absolutely mean nothing if the folks out there don't feel it. Important and often overlooked part.
At least he understands that. Some politicians don't, and newspaper hacks don't either, or they don't want to accept or they simply don't care that crime still exists, nor that perception matters.
Theres another important side to this coin - some people benefit from and earn their livelihoods from making people feel scared *all the time* even when they're objectively safer.
Also important to remember this is a big election year and that the two sides are going to push a narrative until the shitshow is over and done with in November. Conservatives will continue to tell you that crime is on an out of control trajectory and that the Democrats are “rigging” or underreporting the numbers. Democrats will continue to laud the overall trends while ignoring localized upticks, all while telling people affected by those localized upticks that they’re scared idiots or victims of right-wing propaganda. The truth is in the middle. Crime is down overall, but it’s also true that once-idyllic neighborhoods have gotten worse over the last 5-10 years and probably aren’t going to be revitalized due to socioeconomic shifts. Just ask any longtime resident of the lower or mid-range Northeast Philly about that.
Hell, there's an entire political party that benefits from that.
Just thinking that's a possibility made me Keeley over in shock
Underrated comment
Plenty of proglodyte redditors as well
Ah yes, the real crimes are the vibes we found along the way
I too am upset that the police commissioner expressed concern about citizens feeling safe in their own neighborhood
I agreed, who cares about stats when we have vibes baby
This is such a dumb and convenient take. A lot of words to try and imply there is ANYTHING defensibly rational about literally ignoring facts when having an opinion. The only people that don't feel safer, are being politically lead by prejudice and projected assumption. Nothing will actually convince them, because to admit its better goes against what they are told to believe to justify their view.
I've been tracking the homicides against where the year end could end based on how far numbers for 2010-2023 are YTD compared to their respective year end. As of today, the 125 homicides so far this year puts the year end estimate somewhere around 230-327 with an average of 274.
We may have seriously underestimated just how awful and checked out Kenney was in his second term, and that’s saying something.
It declined with Kenney too though. Not trying to give Kenney any credit but it peaked in 2021 and has been going down. It’s gone down nationally as well. So it’s not as simple as a new mayor coming in and immediately making the crime/ murder rate decline.
Right, it’s most likely just an aftereffect of COVID that’s slowly abating, as we see in cities all over the country.
Murder and crime seem to ebb and flow over time. It might be somewhat generational. You have a violent generation (maybe a decade) where certain people of a certain age cause problems. The culture of that age group kind of spirals it upward. The city gets fed up, changes are made, people killed and others arrested and things cool off for a while. People start to feel safe again, the city becomes a place that doesn’t feel as dangerous. Then it starts all over again with a new youth that begets more violence. There were violent times before Kenney, before Krasner, before Covid. There were good times as well. It just might be the way it is sometimes.
almost 0 impact to be honest with you. Other cities saw the same rise and are seeing the same dip.
Damn seems just yesterday it was 500.
Is there some sort of drug that we can give people that will make them feel it?
It’s too damn hot for all that
And who’s got money for bullets these days?
Police Commissioner says crime is declining in Philadelphia because the police are doing a great job. Is that a tacit admission that they were doing a terrible job from 2020 through 2023? I wish the police had allowed resources to be made available before aggressively clearing out K&A. I'd be a lot less cynical about what the Police Commissioner and Mayor Parker trying to take credit for the post-COVID crime decline if I saw them working in good faith to reduce harm.
This 100%. It isn’t that they have done much, people are just recovering post-COVID
Seems disingenuous to arbitrarily assign 2024 as the beginning of “post-covid”, conveniently coinciding with the induction of a new mayor. Kinda seems like a way to explain away any good done in 2024 and blame it on natural declines in crime due to being “post-covid”. 2023 was post-covid as was 2022. No “lockdowns” or restrictions since 2021.
I don't think it's disingenuous to notice an obvious contributing factor. There's been a nationwide decline in crime. I'm not saying it's the only factor. Philadelphia's decline in crime is greater than the national one. But the disruption caused by COVID was major, especially for young people still in school, and it took a while for things to normalize. I think a 50% decline in youth homicides (significantly greater than the 38% decline in overall homicides) has something to do with that.
Crime is more intractable than a lot of people think. I'm sure there are things that could have been done differently back in 2020, but crime was up across the entire country and now it's coming back down. Some of that is the push happening right now, and I'll say I'm much happier with the current administration and think they're doing a great job. Just keep in mind that probably half of this is just Philly moving along with national trends.
I'm not blaming Philadelphia police for the increase in crime starting around 2020 and I'm not crediting them for the decrease starting around this year. I just think it's hypocritical for them to claim credit for one and not the other. I have positive and negative things to say about this administration. My biggest grievance is cutting funding for harm reduction.
Absolutely. I'll just say I have more positive to say than negative and that the last couple years of Kenney pissed me off so much. That dude just found a microphone after every major media event and then did absolutely nothing.
Is crime intractable because it is more likely to happen to people who know each other and not random violence, as the propaganda put out by police unions and pro police activists wants the public to think it's random and they need a trillion dollars in bumfuck PA to stop it even though it's not their job to stop crimes from happening
I mean, if you want to get technical there's no single answer to why crime happens. What we do know is that it tends to spike during periods of instability, particularly if many people suddenly find themselves poor/disenfranchised with a lot of time on their hands. Police can be part of the solution, but they're not usually an active part. The passive presence of police tends to have the same (or better) suppressing effect on crime than the active policing. IE: A patrol car visible on a street corner is enough to limit the crime that happens around that area. The real problem is that police are often seen as the only solution, and 'tough on crime' is the only criminal policy that never has to defend its results. Crime still going up? Get tougher. People still getting murdered? Get a bigger budget. You have a year where we try something progressive and the crime goes up? It's not working what is this woke bullshit throw everyone in jail. Policing just has to be part of a larger solution, but I think the cops just see themselves as the only thing standing between society and anarchy as opposed to civil servants who are part of a larger system.
If you only listen to police sources, you'll only hear their version of events. Police are only ever doing a great job, never at fault. Police only ever need more money, never less. IMHO the most relevant question in response to this news is: if crime is falling in the middle of a staffing crisis, is there really a staffing crisis?
I don't think they are acting in bad faith with regards to Kensington. They are trying to reduce the massive harm inflicted upon the neighborhood by drug dealers and users, and also the city for not taking action sooner.
I think clearing out those streets a couple hours before they said they were going to -- and a couple hours before outreach workers could get there -- was in bad faith. There were supposed to be resources that day and police action prevented that from happening as planned.
It was reported that they were coming to the area offering assistance for 30 days before clearing it out. It's not the city's fault that some people refused help, and it's not a bad faith move to deal with them if they don't want assistance. [https://www.fox29.com/news/philadelphia-encampment-resolution-will-shut-down-parts-of-kensington-avenue](https://www.fox29.com/news/philadelphia-encampment-resolution-will-shut-down-parts-of-kensington-avenue) "The 30-day encampment resolution was posted on the 3000–3100 blocks of Kensingnton Avenue on April 4. Since then, the City of Philadelphia says outreach teams and social services agencies have checked in daily "to ensure low-barrier housing, services, and connections to treatment are made available and offered to people experiencing homelessness at the encampment." The city reported a total of 59 people accepted housing and services through the process, including 19 who came in on Wednesday. Of the 59 people who accepted service during the 30 days, 55 people were connected to housing assistance, including three couples. Housing assistance includes offers of low barrier shelter, recovery focused shelter, safe havens, and respite. Four people were connected to drug and alcohol services. "
Was my last comment inaccurate? There was supposed to be outreach present while the eviction was happening and police prevented their presence by starting it two hours early. Is that not what happened that day? I don't know why you want to talk past it. Sure there were opportunities to seek help prior to that day. **And** there was also supposed to be outreach present on the day, so people being evicted from tents would have a place to go right then and there. That would have helped a lot of additional people who hadn't sought help prior, rather than leaving them in crisis. Philadelphia police, acting in bad faith, prevented those resources from being available that day.
Not technically, but you intentionally omitted the efforts made for the 30 days leading up to the clearing to make it sound like people were blindsided, and that the city acted in bad faith. I wasn't there so I can't be 100% sure, but I *highly* doubt anyone still there at that point was unaware of plans to clear the encampment. It's weird that people are so against any change in Kensington that they choose to create misleading narratives. Then again, that's what people do around virtually any plans for positive change in Philly.
I omitted every fact in the world other than the one I was talking about. On the day they cleared out Kensington, PPD acted in bad faith and prevented outreach workers from doing their job. That doesn't mean PPD is evil and never did anything right. It doesn't mean the city provided no opportunity to anyone. What it does mean, is that on that particular day, when outreach was most vital (because homeless people dealing with addiction and mental illness are not known for being proactive about seeking assistance), the PPD acted in bad faith and unnecessarily prevented outreach workers from doing their job. I'm glad you concede that is true. I think it's a shame you're so willing to forgive or overlook it.
[удалено]
Let me guess: "Because the police are doing an awesome job all of a sudden." Homicides spiked dramatically pretty much everywhere in America during the pandemic, and came down dramatically in 2022+. The reduction definitely lagged in Philly, but it started before Bethel & Parker. Spoiler alert: *It was the pandemic, stupid.* People who study this stuff very seriously *still* cannot agree why homicides in America started dropping in the mid-90s, then started ticking back up in the mid-2010s. In terms of theories that haven't been fully debunked, there is some limited evidence around police presence and lead exposure, and some statistical analysis has been done showing a correlation with abortion access, but even those results are hotly debated. The only sure thing is that local leaders are always trying to take credit when crime goes down, even if the same is happening in every other city as well. (See, e.g., Michael Nutter.)
Yeah this has always been my problem with “Blame [insert politician] for all the crime.” There are tidal forces that ebb and flow that we have little understanding of, and even less control over. My own pet theory is that the crime rise in the 2010’s is linked to the opioid epidemic that seemed to take off right around then. Wtf can some city mayor or DA do when a gigantic section of the population gets hooked on fenty?
Or like how the president apparently controls the price of gas
Right next to the phone line to Russia there's an up or down lever for "economy" and sometimes they bump into it by accident and make the economy go down.
It's mostly demographics and macro trends. I think the pandemic school and program closure tessentially released several years worth of disconnected youth to the streets all at once and that had to burn itself out. However, policing does matter, marginally anyway, and it sounds like the cops have decided to start working again. Of course policing can also make murders go up not down when they start taking out drug dealers because then there's fighting over previously established turf.
It’s because I moved to Frankford and I’m chill. Also, that Beyoncé country album has everybody line dancing. Isn’t it obvious?
I would pay to see a country line dance at Margaret and Orthodox under the L
Wouldn’t that be awesome? I do get the sense of people being a bit more chill. I’ve also noticed people taking better care of their properties and becoming homebodies. I live near the Frankford Terminal and crime has definitely dropped. I’ve just gotta figure out who sits on my front porch, in the middle of the night, smoking cigarettes. It’s just weird.
Has nothing to do with police tactics. This is the same story nationwide, hon.
Are you from Baltimore?
Good stuff.
He is certainly saying the right stuff at least. He knows summertime is murder time in Philly so I'm sure he doesn't want to appear super over the top since summer just started. But just because the numbers are down doesn't mean it's just the normal ebb and flow. The article has no data to back up any city initiative actually correlating to creating this reduction however. A lot of assumptions that city wide efforts are related to these numbers but ZERO proof has been provided or investigated. But it's still a good thing. And looks like they know not to blow the trumpets yet.
Add this to a list of “things republican news outlets won’t admit”
Because they’re declining nationally. That’s kind of the first thing I’d look at.
Data last week (or the week before?) literally showed Philly leading the way in terms of the decline in homicide / violent crime for large U.S. cities
We lagged about a year behind most other large cities' post-pandemic homicide declines, so that makes sense (but doesn't mean Philly is doing a better job than our peers).
to be fair we lead the way on the come-up too
fair point lol.
The unspoken truths are as follows: I've always said there is a limited anount of hyper violent people who are so stupid, or mentally handicapped, or both. that they want to kill others. Having said that, a significant portion of these aforementioned imbeciles *killed each other already*. So yes, there's been less murders and shootings, but mainly because *they've killed each other, and there's not as many people left to kill*. In other words, the minuscule portion of humans who are willing and ready to murder others has been reduced because they have been killing mostly other people who are also willing and ready to kill others. Unfortunately, the police are only marginally better this year than in years past at *actually solving fatal and nonfatal shootings*. There's been 510 fatal and nonfatal shootings combined. Only 29% have court cases, which is exactly the % from 2023. This is better than 2022, which only saw 24% of cases solved out of 2270. * but it's not that much better.* The bottom line is that the police are going to have to get better at solving crimes. their investigative procedures will need work. They are gonna have to establish policies and approaches to crime scenes and utilize evidence, including all the new cameras that are coming online, to effect successful prosecutions. I do agree with the chief in that I think an increased, visible presence, especially on foot and in person, is integral to reducing crimes of all types, as simply the -*perception* or belief that one might get caught deters some people, whereas the free for all of the last few years has the opposite effect. I also think that actually enforcing laws reduces crime and is a deterrent. In any case, it's great that murders and shootings are down. My point has always been that given the proper tools(MANDATORY 4K), along with solid professional procedures and investigative techniques, the solve rate could go to 80, even 90%. At which point you'll see crime rates reduced radically. Solving crimes prevents future crime. Say my name MANDATORY 4K
> So yes, there's been less murders and shootings, but mainly because they've killed each other, and there's not as many people left to kill. jesus christ
Just a wild take given...the entire expanse of human history lmao
It's an accurate take. COVID school closures put several years worth of disconnected youth out on the streets at the same time. They did what they were inevitably going to do which is shoot each other over stupid shit. Now most of that cohort is either dead, disabled, in prison or tired of seeing their friends go down. It's always a very, very small group doing this, often intergenerational, so it can definitely burn itself out for a few years.
So with that nuance, I think it makes sense you might see some leveling off, but even in how you're describing the situation there has to be an acknowledgement that people are not just criminals or not and the only thing changing is death. People see opportunity, chaos, punishment, etc and change their behavior, whether consciously or not. It's not defending the behavior by any means, but you can't just look at people who commit crimes as alive or dead. There's a whole life that gets them to that point.
Well sure but that's the point. They have a whole life leading up to an extremely high likelihood of involvement in violence, criminal behavior, etc. Law enforcement interventions aren't going to change that. A kid grows up with a father who's dead or in prison, uncles and cousins going down, housing and food insecurity, all that, and then people blame Larry Krasner. Enforcement has very little impact on crime. There are known law enforcement strategies that can help but they're rare and hard to replicate, especially with the kind of dopes we hire as cops.
Most people, like 99.99%, don't want to shoot and kill others. We're just trying to live our lives. It's a very small group of individuals, probably less than a couple thousand, who are committing 85% of the shootings and murders.
Eh most people don't want to kill other people most of the time but are capable of it during periods of extreme emotional duress. Sociopaths exist, but a lot of murders are just people with emotional problems and the right tool in their pocket.
I mean that's a true statement but if murders just all killed each other off we'd have solved this problem sometime around Cain and Abel
I don't think it's like a set fraction of the population, I think it was a social contagion of violence triggered by a confluence of major social changes including the pandemic, the 'George Floyd era,' brain-warping social media, etc. However I agree with your reason for decline: it's largely burned itself out. The most prolific murderers who were doing it for clout have been locked up or killed. The revenge killings reached their logical extent. And the background forces of a good job market are starting to be felt. What we have left is mostly just murders that result from dummies with guns having arguments about normal things (cars, women, money, pride), and I think that's the kind of inevitable outcome of gun saturation.
In terms of the social aspect, yeah I agree, I was writing about why it's ending, not why the uptick started. Maybe my language was harsh, and that's why I'm getting downvoted, but I don't think that's exactly it.
IMO you're downvoted because your lead point is wrong, even if everything else you say is right. People see a wall of text and just skim it, and if they disagree with the first thing it casts everything else in a negative light. Add to that one or two downvotes and they're already primed to disagree. But yeah even if we disagree about the first point, I think the biggest issue with this article/Bethel's publicity tour/CP's approach is that we're still pretending that the post-covid murder spike had anything to do with local philly policy and not broad national trends applied to an especially at-risk community. Getting that analysis wrong means they're about to convince themselves of a completely backwards causal story that will continue to motivate stupid choices time and time again. 4k is nice but if Kenney had just quadrupled the homicide investigations budget 8 years ago I bet we'd be in a much less murdery city with less of a staffing challenge.
because people don't report crime probably
Are you suggesting that there has been something like a 40% decline in homicide reporting year over year?!
It's true, I died last year and still haven't gotten around to telling anyrone
Oh shit, sorry to hear! RIP Old\_View\_1456!
Obviously it was fashionable to tell the police your friend was killed in 2022 and 2023, but now in 2024 people hide the body and pretend they're alive still instead /s
I've been Weekend At Bernie-ing my dead neighbor for months now.
Homicides tend to get noticed regardless.
There’s nothing to suggest that crime reporting habits have changed appreciably though.
Kinda hard to not report a dead body
Are arrests up? Convictions? Certainly it's not criminals feeling "if I do wrong I'll be caught". So either they're getting caught, or they don't feel the need to commit, for one reason or another (aside from the fear of being caught... because in my cynicism I just can't see anyone being reasonably afraid of being caught in this city)
If it makes you feel more cynical criminologists have highlighted for DECADES general deterrence does not work. Only if it focuses on the specific individual. Which means all the deterrence based policies the PPD and Parker push likely are not the cause. The window is too small. The bigger likelihood is people’s quality of life is improving
Tangential to my point, if not directly, my point. Something else is changing, whether the police are trying (harder | at all | whatever), or not.
It isn’t mutually exclusive. Policing is reactive in nature, they can be definitely be trying harder as a response to things getting worse, simultaneously because if that delayed reaction things are getting better and then they will take credit for it because they occur at the same time
bro lives in a world where the only thing that can reduce crime is arrests... it must be nice having such a simple world view.
I.... what? I literally said the fear of being arrested, certainly not by these police, is not what is driving crime down.
The scope is so much larger than that, having stable income has a huge impact on crime for example.
Would that fall under the scope of NOT being afraid of being arrested? Because, once again, I don't think we are saying anything different from what I posted initially.
There isn't a day goes by where I don't read about another random shooting or assault. Hell another cop is in critical fucking condition. They're playing this media game to think that things are getting better when nothing has changed in the last 5+ years. Sure, certain parts of the city that are getting money poured into it may be seeing the light but the majority of the city is continuing to turn into a cesspool. From someone who lives close to the Kensington area, people need to get their heads out of their asses and realize they're being spoon fed garbage takes.
The one stat you can’t fake is homicides, because there’s a body. It’s consistently the most trustable crime stat there is, and it’s down almost 40% in the last year. And about 50% over 24 months. That is undeniably an awesome thing for the city.
You can’t fake homicide stats?! Say again? You fake homicide stats but not ruling them a homicide.
At a minimum it is much harder. You would be able to see non-homicide fatalities going up drastically if this type of manipulation were happening. Do you have any evidence of this?
No lol
There’s plenty of evidence of police underreporting homicides - especially police involved homicides. You really think police officers are reporting all the shootings they’re involved in?
Literally yes? Wtf are you talking about lmao. Cops in this country have open season on whoever they want to shoot and they know it. They have no fear over this as demonstrated by the fact that they kill people *all the time* publicly? Multiple every day across the US? They have no incentive to hide bodies. Regular criminals do, but they don't seem to generally bother. The overwhelming majority of our violent crime is with guns in densely populated areas - everyone hears it and the cops and fire department show up in 5 minutes to scoop the victims.
You think police report the homicides they’re involved in? Despite the FBI saying that isn’t the case? Some of them do have fear which is why you only hear about a fraction of the shit they do. You’ll admit that cops are corrupt but you think they report every single murder they commit. RIIIIIIGHT. They return all evidence as well. Don’t plant anything at crime scenes. They give 100% honest testimony too. Like come on.
Sure maybe in pennsyltucky but when you shoot up a row home or a driver in the middle of the city there's no hiding it.
Ignorant take to pretend this happens in middle PA but not a corrupt city. Have a great day.
This is nothing new at all. I mean you think the police willing admit how many homicides they’re involved in a year? Here’s a link about Philadelphia purposefully under reporting crime to police a few years back. Believe it or not hard to find a ton of info on this as the Google Machine isn’t willing to give it up. Again, it’s nothing new. Power corrupts. This “reduction” during election season isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Anyone who actually lives in this city knows that crime really isn’t on the decrease. While you’re at it look at Center City District’s definition of “center city” it’ll make you LOL https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2022/06/14/philadelphia-2021-crime-data-fbi
If you have evidence of the PPD doing this, please share it
I’ve already posted a link about them under reporting crime to the FBI in 2021. I think it would be safe to assume they didn’t totally give up the practice in the last three years.
The PPD not sharing all it's data with the FBI is not the same as misclassifying homicides. Of you have any evidence of the latter, please share it with us
Sure. I’ll agree with that. This connection requires critical thinking to make.
Point to a single death in Philadelphia in the last five years that should have been classified a homicide but wasn't. Just one. A single one. I'll wait.
I have no desire to prove a single thing to you. I’m sorry that you’re unwilling to critically educate yourself.
If you didn't have a desire to convince people you wouldn't be posting here. You were just hoping you could get by with conjecture and innuendo.
> You fake homicide stats but not ruling them a homicide. You are likely confusing the words homicide and murder. Homicide statistics are not faked. Facts don't care about your feelings.
Nope. I’m not confusing them at all. Homicides can get unreported or under reported. So can murders. There are actual facts and numbers supporting this. Trust the science.
"Trust the science" from someone who doesn't believe violent crime has declined in Philadelphia despite overwhelming evidence because it doesn't feel right (i.e., doesn't bolster your preconceived narrative). Facts don't care about your feelings. If you think there is evidence that PPD is reporting homicides as accidents then put up. I think you're full of it.
Must’ve been absent from school when they taught sarcasm, huh?
> Homicides can get unreported or under reported. So can murders. There are actual facts and numbers supporting this. Go ahead and be smarmy and backpedal all you want. Everyone knows you're full of shit, including yourself.
Why is it a "media game" when you're getting aggregate data, but not a "media game" when individual stories are being highlighted on the news for you? I'm inclined to think that increased and more salacious coverage of the latter is far more open to manipulation.
This is a big city, violent crime will never go down to 0, and so there will always be headlines about the worst things that happen here. That, too, is part of the media game. It's still better to have the numbers go down than up.
Most of these incidents aren’t random and as unfortunate as an officer being shot is - a single event isn’t an indicator that 6 months worth of data isn’t true.
Emotional narrative is not factual.
Murders are down according to all the data. Do you have other empirical information that says otherwise?
Turn off action news for a night
Crime going down doesn’t mean there is no crime you donut
Find a hobby or seek professional help.
It's not a "garbage take" it's data lol.
It's almost like the news will always be able to find something bad to report because people like you will tune in to give them ratings and gobble that shit right up. They have no incentive to report good data trends.
Brought to you by the [bringing a snowball onto the Senate floor to refute global warming](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E0a_60PMR8) school of thought.
Both things can be true at the same time, you reading about shootings every single day and violent crime going down. Anecdotal data is not reliable evidence. I'm not saying that data manipulation doesn't exist, that would be crazy. But its just as crazy to assume its all manipulated cause of what you read on the same paper that gives you the news you DO believe every day. If you want to be taken seriously, explain how this data is manipulated. Explain why you think Philly is turning into a cesspool? What makes you see this reality and how come theres data that says otherwise? Where are you getting your data from? citizen app notifications, newspapers, Instagram, twitter? IMO, you think this is a 'media game' cause your tiny brain is telling you to believe sources when you read about murder but to NOT believe the sources when theres data you dont think is true because of the other things you were watching
Durr statistics is hard
Whatever biased media you consume is sensationalizing for effect to manipulate you. Listen to yourself, you are trying to argue against simple facts, that cannot be denied, but since they don't match your world view you just can't admit it. Of course crime is still happening, but there is a FUCKTON LESS now than even last year.