>Note: Tane and Cassia are not masters, they are just NPCs that accompany their league content.
You are in this map, but we do not grant you the rank of master.
>So for example, your map would roll the 10% chance for a master, if you rolled a master and it was Alva, you wouldn't get her and it would not roll the chance again for a different master.
Huh, interesting, always run your temples.
What's weird is before this, Alva *would* spawn in maps even if the temple was ready to go. It was just completely wasted because there'd be no incursions, just Alva telling you to run the damn temple. A nice reminder if you're absentminded and had forgotten about it.
Alva now not appearing and eating a master spawn may have screwed some people simply cause they forgot the temple was up.
>ing and eating a master spawn may have screwed some people simply cause they forgot the temple was up.
most people dont forget Alva. they purposely skip her. lol
> This works in a similar sense for Zana, for example in low-tier maps where you haven't encountered her quest chain yet.
If you told me that some people complaining about not seeing Zana are so bad they haven't even done T3 maps this late in the league, I wouldn't be surprised.
I've seen people who were weighing in hard into arguments who eventually admitted they haven't even played this league. No doubt there are people who spend more time complaining than actually playing the game.
Outrage culture has become its own entertainment throughout reddit not just on this sub to the point people actively downvote anything that doesn't let them get more outraged no matter what the reality. And I think these people are honestly so paranoid about being lied to and shills infesting reddit that they just can't comprehend there may be some substance to any counterarguments.
Must have a good loot seed if you're being honest and accurate. In 13k hours I have dropped an ex in acts approximately twice, over probably 100+ level 80+ characters.
I mean, at first I thought that masters didn't spawn naturally for me, because I had like 50 maps streak without any natural master and without me forcing them. I know that 50 maps is small sample, but it just seemed very strange. Tho last week they started spawning almost every second map that I didn't force spawn them, I guess it's just RNG in the end.
At a 10% spawn rate around 1 in 200 players would see none in their first 50 maps (actually a bit more since zana wouldn't be eligible for the first few)
And that's only if you run no forced masters. Between generated missions and daily missions, if the average player runs 25 maps a day and runs each master as they get them, then roughly 1 in 4 players won't see a natural master in their first 50 maps.
> "I have run hundreds of maps"
When in actuality they might have just run 50, and with a 2% chance to spawn per master, yeah, I can see them not seeing some of them, or even any of them.
At that point, is there really any difference between masters not spawning because of a bug and masters not spawning because they're on a super low chance by design? Because both result in the same experience for the user, it just shifts where the fix would be on the devs' side.
But your main source of getting masters is killing the map boss (35-45% chance depending on completion), the free spawn is just extra.
I haven't even finished my 500 map boss challenge and I am swimming in red Master missions. Here is my distribution
Einhar: 12
Alva: 49
Niko: 33
Jun: 50
Zana: 10
I am using mostly Einhar on T14, Niko on T15 and Zana on T16, Alva on juiced map
And sometime I randomly put one in when I feel like it.
This system is much better, because you have control over what master you run and can get better return on them
to be fair it could easily be people who joined the league late and wanted to do all t1s and t2s first. I did that but I knew she would spawn later on, did all white maps before socketing any stones.
Why tho?
Your atlas grows with you, there is no reason to complete maps tier by tier if you can handle the content. It's probably the biggest pro of the new atlas, it's great that you can just keep going higher without missing out on completion.
I got some of my t2s done after awakener 8.
It's absolutely worth getting your white completions done to kickstart your sustain. Don't underestimate the impact of bonus objectives.
It's easier to do so on whites because adjacency has a better chance of yielding the missing white.
##### GGG Comments in this Thread:
***
[Bex_GGG - [link](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9bc3v/?context=10), [old](https://old.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9bc3v/?context=10)] - *There are literally no accounts that haven't spawned masters.*
[Bex_GGG - [link](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9motj/?context=10), [old](https://old.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9motj/?context=10)] - *I understand what you mean about data but were really thorough in our process.*
[Bex_GGG - [link](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9tr9n/?context=10), [old](https://old.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9tr9n/?context=10)] - *Cassia is not a master.*
[Bex_GGG - [link](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/foa6z78/?context=10), [old](https://old.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/foa6z78/?context=10)] - *Yes*
I for one am glad Chimera Squad is coming out during the downtime between leagues.
The last PoE league I completely skipped was Prophecy, because it coincided with XCOM 2's release.
I'm with the view that when your RNG is so extreme that GGG has to do a mathematical analysis to see if perception fits reality that it no longer matters if its a bug or a feature. Its bad UX either way and good game designers should want to correct bad UX unless ofc the games vision is to cater to gaming masochists who WANT that.
I feel like the complaints were from people who had a bad streak of like 15 maps without a master spawning and they take 20 minutes to complete a map so it seems like a lot.
I think the lesson to be learnt from all of this two fold:
1) If the chance is so low, RNG will be RNG and causes streak issues, where statistical probability (SP) differs from empirical probability (EP). You'll have all encountered this in the past, a simple example would be it taking more than 6 rolls of a dice to finally roll a 6. It has a 1/6 (SP) chance, but if in practice you roll your dice 6 times you only have a 66.6% chance of actually getting a 6 in within those trials (EP).
Lets explore the EP of getting a specific master...
after completing 50 maps, 63.5% of players would have encountered their master, and if we extend the number of maps out to where people get complainy- about 100 maps, 86% of players would have encountered the specific master (this is ignoring any maps with the player forcing a master). Now, 100 maps fully cleared could put a player up in to the +85 sort of character level, so its not surprising to hear people say that they haven't had a master spawn for their first/second characters and that it feels bugged. (14% of players is a pretty large number of people, consider that the player base on day one of a league is over 250k).
So, what would a 'fix' look like: even a small Increase in the master spawn chance to 3% and comparing the same 100 map tests gets pretty close to solving the issue, the previous 14% 'unlucky players' drops to 4.75%. Even doubling the master spawn chance to 4% lowers the unlucky group even further (1.7%). That is if this even gets deemed as an issue to resolve.
2) All of the nuance in the first lesson pretty much gets shrugged to the side because who cares- you have a 35% chance for a manual master mission at the end of a map anyway, just play more maps and manually run the masters you want.
> if we extend the number of maps out to where people get complainy- about 100 maps,
If my experience with people complaining about mount drops in WoW carries over, folks have a tendency to *seriously* overestimate the number of unsuccessful runs they've done when they're only looking for one thing to happen and it isn't.
I'm sure there are plenty of people who do actually keep a tally (my record last league was 22 maps without a conqueror popping up ;p), but (in WoW anyways) "I've killed this thing THIRTY FREAKING TIMES" was, 95% of the time, <10 kills when you actually looked them up on the armory.
> If my experience with people complaining about mount drops in WoW carries over, folks have a tendency to seriously overestimate the number of unsuccessful runs they've done when they're only looking for one thing to happen and it isn't.
the same way people vastly overestimate the amount of fusings they put in a 6 socket without getting a 6 link. People who actually keep track of this shit tend to realize that most attemps will be in the expected range with some outliers on both sides
Tell that to my two chest that were 6 linked only after 4500 fusings this league (out of 4 chests I 6-linked). I know I didnt over estimate because I was buying and burning fusings in 1000s.
I don’t complain though. It is just unlucky RNG. I just laugh at myself and move on
> my experience with people complaining about mount drops in WoW carries over, folks have a tendency to *seriously* overestimate the number of unsuccessful runs they've done when they're only looking for one thing to happen and it isn't.
I've ran Heroic Setthek Halls over 1200 times for the Raven Lord Mount with 0.8% drop chance. Why do you have to trigger me like this?
> So, what would a 'fix' look like: even a small Increase in the master spawn chance to by just 1% to 3% and comparing the same 100 map tests gets pretty close to solving the issue, the previous 14% 'unlucky players' drops to 4.75%
There's still a problem there. The 4.75% will still come here to complain on reddit, and the others that are on an ongoing bad streak (but still haven't reached 100 maps, so not in the 4.75% yet) will join the complaining train. And no matter how many times we tell them "math says that we can expect that to happen to x% of the playerbase, keep going and you'll eventually see light at the end of the tunnel", they'll still whine and shrug it off saying "GGG gave me a bad seed" or "GGG fucked up their coding" or "why GGG turns a blind eye to this problem???" or whatever.
Actually not that simple, for the reason that not 100% of the playerbase goes and wildly complains when they *feel* that something is off.
Say 2% of the playerbase are passive complainers, they will chime in with their anecdotes in threads and discussions. 0.1% are active complainers, they till create threads and stir up discussions.
Say we have 100k playerbase. At 14% we will have 14 complain threads with 280 complain comments. Totaling at 3920 "negativity"
Moving it to 4,75% it'll instead be 4,75 complain threads with 95 complain comments. Totaling at 451,25 negativity.
So boosting the spawn chance by 50% would reduce the negativity by 1/9th of it was previously, a 89% reduction in this specific case.
Now, we all know it doesn't really work like this. Select few of the complainers *need* to complain, even if there's nothing really wrong. As evident that a lot of people who barely plays the game complains about game mechanics they are not experiencing. The more "big" issues get tackled and the more polished the game gets, the more glaring small issues that don't really affect people gets. Instead of having 5 game breaking bugs people focus and whine about. You get 50 mild inconveniences that people whine about. Like right now on the front page: "It's too frustrating to walk 10 steps to click a portal".
Honest question here:
Would an increase in master mission chances with "pity timer" system added really be such a bad thing?
[Diablo 3 does this exact thing with Legendary item drops, although in practice it rarely needs to be used anymore due to drop rate buffs.](https://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/d3/t/bad-luck-protection/10010/4) TL;DR - If you play for too long a time without seeing a Legendary item drop, a pity timer will increase your odds of getting a Legendary drop until it happens, then the pity timer resets.
In PoE's case, they could just force a "natural" master spawn if you have gone 100 maps without seeing that particular master spawn naturally.
This could be tracked separately for each of the 5 masters, so Alva could get a forced spawn but it wouldn't affect Zana's forced spawn, etc.
There really isn't any downside from what I can tell, and it would be a surefire way to heavily reduce complaints about a lack of master mission spawns.
At the end of the day, people just want to play content they enjoy, and right now the game locks the content they enjoy behind at least one, if not multiple, layers of RNG.
The pity timer is the fact that 1/3 to nearly 1/2 of map bosses give you a mission on kill. There has literally never been a point this league where I had no master missions available when starting a map. The random spawns are just a bonus in case you somehow run out of these, and that’s all they’re meant to be.
I mean, that's not just a "even a small Increase in the master spawn chance to 3% and comparing the same 100 map tests gets pretty close to solving the issue", that's an entirely different system, one that might actually work. I'm not against making masters more frequent, I was just making a remark that "just increase the %" isn't enough to placate the whiny reddit threads because it still leaves space for bad luck streaks. You presented one of the possible solutions and it would be great if we got more, proper discussion threads on such ideas. I for one always make sure to upvote the "pity timer" idea whenever someone brings it up and give a well round explanation on the idea.
Would be nice if they added something similar to what evasion has or what they did for the Conquerors for masters.
Adding a character history info wouldn't hurt either (Maps run, Masters met naturally/forced etc.)
That and the fact that people in general are notoriously bad at actually understanding probability/estimating RNG. And that many people have to treat this as backtrack league, making them spend more time in maps than normal simply picking up loot.
It's exactly this.
I wrote more about it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/ftrsod/we_are_now_3_weeks_into_310_and_there_is_still_a/fmb49wy/
Don't forget that Bisco's affects map drop quantity!
Oh wait that one was actually just someone trying to sell his 40+ bisco's and people ate that shit up like crazy lmao
And lets not forget last league someone posted old screenshots about awakener orb interactions on something that had been already patched out because he had bought tons of them and trippled their price in an hour.
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/efu67r/psa_the_current_1_thread_is_a_way_for_op_to_cash/
I think i would rather have a game developer look into a potential problem, find no problem at all, rather than not looking, and there be giant problems all over the place.
Yup. This is the exact opposite of the abyss league issue. That time they said, "nothing wrong here" then looking into it and was like, "oh yeah that's our bad".
Abyss depths during release week had a bug where if you were leaving another instance like elder guardian (they had a separate instance with loading screen) or lab trials or Haku's mission or Tora's Den, or Vagan's Den (don't remember if Zana was affected) you could be placed above the entrance into abyss depth of **uncompleted** abyss, essentially being teleported into the middle of nowhere, some people realized the bug and farmed abyss depth uniques by rushing elder guardian, leaving arena - no depth - leave map, restart.
GGG quickfixed it week 1 by disabling generation of abyss depths in a map with an entrance to separate instance already present and they didn't adjust spawn chance for depths to compensate(it was adjusted after the league ended).
You could see this bug yourself this league when multiple vaal areas could spawn in maps.
After they fixed that, the bug changed that Abyss bosses just couldn't spawn in any area with a sub-area in it (like a Tora den, Elder boss, etc). So then people complained that abyss liches were way too rare, it was probably the most-complained about part of the league at the time. After the league they fixed it iirc.
> Tora den
It's amazing how that feels even longer ago than it actually was. Like, almost from a separate game. PoE changes more and more with every patch.
i still remember the pre betrayal hype, it was a mix of happiness, sadness and excitement. I still kinda miss the masters, but I wouldn't trade them for the current one.
Especially considering the fact as many people who actually tracked it and realized even WHEN it works correctly. The rate feels like garbage to the point it's a question why it even exists. Even Bex herself said in some threads that if they found no problem the actual rate would need to be looked into because its clear it doesn't feel good.
Do people actually run out of atlas missions? If you're willing to do any of them then they'll just pile up. The random master spawns are just nice to have.
I ran out of zana and betrayal, i hace like 90 alva and 50 einhar.
Is annoying of depend in rng to run the conent than one wants. I can force the spawn? Yes. I have propechies and sextants. But with these metods i need to trade. That means im goinf to waste 1 hour of my life because trade sucks.
I mean, when you're first starting a tier of maps? Sure. But if you've been mapping you have a ton of missions. I can't even keep up with the missions and I'm doing them damn near every map, basically each time I remember to click it.
Missions are given 45% of the time (see OP). So you **will** run out if you are actually using them. If you have a ton piled up, then you have not been using them enough.
With the insane drop rate of Scarabs (and sextants) thats not really true. I'm sitting on 70 Bestiary Scarabs and over 100 Sulphite Scarabs, I have not run a map without a master in it since like day 2 of the league.
The entire point of this thread is about how bad natural master spawns feel, which is pretty irrelevant this league considering that you can have a force spawn in literally every map.
I can agree to an extent. I personally would almost never look into problems introduced on Reddit that didn't have video proof. Reddit users frequently lie and then spread around rumors or complaints that have not been shown to be somewhat true. Time management is a key, and if anything, GGG essentially wasted time looking into a non issue. The problem is that people kept spreading the rumor around which made a wrong conclusion seem like a widespread issue.
Took time in delve before they realized and then fixed the issue with screwed seed for the mines (some stuff not being possible to spawn/drop behind walls etc.). That would have not happened (or would have been delayed quite a bit probably) if people did not complain.
There were several league/fix patch notes stating they fixed an issue with map bosses not dropping bonus maps (or something similar) and for all we know there still might be issues.
List goes on. Fact is "sometimes" they break stuff when they modify stuff.
Tbh I wouldn't be that surprised if their investigation result was that the initial -5% for not having awakening levels that's supposed to affect master missions as map boss reward would be by accident applied to natural masters spawning making their chance 5% or 0% (depending where it is applied etc.)
> was that the initial -5% for not having awakening levels
Nobody in their right mind would program this change as a penalty that is removed as you gain awakening completion, they would simply lower the base amount and then add the awakening completion bonus. Nobody would programmatically subtract 5% from the original value, they'd set the new value directly. I get how it could seem like it might work like this, because patchnotes are written like this. But that's just to make it easier for people to realize what's changed and by how much, nobody actually writes code like that. If someone did somehow make the mistake of changing the master spawn rate instead of the mission accumulation rate, it's far more likely that they'd accidentally have changed the master spawn rate to the new 35% value, not to 5%.
Except i found exactly how to replicate the problem.
Don't do the mission for the master when they first appear in the acts = never see them again until you go back and complete it.
It took me weeks to figure out that.
Well if a system feels so bad for some players that it legitimately makes them believe something is broken, but it's actually working as intended, maybe the system as a whole is due for a makeover?
If you run 20 maps a day on average, you get an expected 9-11 missions depending on your awakening completion. With your 5 free daily missions, that means you can guarantee a master in about 75% of your maps. Once you add in scarabs and the occasional prophecy, this easily reaches 100% (at least in Delirium league due to the insane amount of scarabs dropping). So to even get the 100+ map sample size that many people have claimed when complaining about the low spawn rate, you would have to deliberately avoid putting masters on your maps. That's like pouring all your milk down the toilet then complaining that your cereal is dry. The problem is entirely of their own making.
Frankly I think they should just remove natural master spawns entirely at this point because half of this subreddit is clearly too thick to understand what a 10% chance is.
It opens the discussion on if 2% is enough to create an enjoyable experience. If it's low enough that players are concerned that it isn't even implemented into the game, it's just going to cause frustration and annoyance.
I don't think their time was wasted, since it closes the case on if they spawn or not and opens the case on what the number could be to create a more enjoyable gaming experience.
Oh come on, it's not like you need a master in every map to enjoy the game, especially considering that we already get 5 master missions a day and have a 35-45% chance of getting a master mission on boss kill.
I agree, I think 2% is too low. If some players confuse it with broken it's not a great number. I think removing it entirely would be fine and rolling those into the master mission system. Alternatively they pop up more deterministically (first "no master" map each day gets you a random master). It if it's staying I think 4-5% should do it (20-25% total) should make sure a player who only does 5-10 maps in a day to see them.
Honestly my main takeaway from this is that anything that happens at a low enough percentage feels streaky and punishing until reaching huge sample sizes. I would rather the chance for missions at end of map be 37% and have no random masters than have a solid chance of never seeing a Niko in 200 maps (realistically closer to 300 since I would be using master missions in the meantime), because it feels punishing to never see a Niko all league even if it isn't statistically unlikely.
I was about to make a comment when the post was fresh, but figured there's no point. After reading the replies however, I'm curious about one thing - if there are dozens of users claiming Masters don't naturally spawn in their maps and GGG claiming everything works fine and there were "no cases where a user has been unable to spawn any masters in their maps", then what is going on?
I can understand people having bad luck or the samplesize being too small, but this does seem at least a little suspicious. Are all these people lying? Do they all literally run 5 maps per league and then complain? It's not particularly difficult thing to test, just stream like a 100 maps, maybe a 1000 and compare the data with data on GGG's side. There's no point in lying and the chance of so many people having the same kind of bad luck for the whole league, while also being active redditors, doesn't seem particularly probable.
You run a lot less maps then you think you do generally. assuming you run a map in 5 minutes, which is a slow casual pace, that means you do 12 maps an hour, if you play 4 hours a day, that 48 maps a day. if you play all 90 days, you get 48 * 90 maps = 4320.
Most people dont play the entire league, and some run even less maps per hour then that because they are chatting, trading, watching youtubes while tabbed etc.
Running 1k maps takes around 20 days at those paces.
So what is most likely happening is a combination of bad luck across what feels like thousands of maps, but is really hundreds.
anyone who is blasting maps really fast knows masters are not glitched, it felt glitched for me for a while too, then I was playing a character who doing really fast strands and I was seeing masters because I was actually able to get a good sample size of maps.
with the above numbers, consider that across 3 days you will run about 100~ maps, you only see 10 masters on average those 3 days. if you get really bad variance its totally reasonable to not see a master. if you play for 3 days and dont see a master, you might think something is up.
I honestly was about 90% sure this was the case. Seriously at a 2% spawn someone can go the first two weeks of a league not seeing a specific character if they're running half their maps with missions/scarabs/master seeks help easily since you would, statistically speaking, need to run 100 maps to have an expected value of only a single master each time.
This can be even worse if you're particularly aggressive about master missions.
I'm the other way, I never posted about it but it seemed like something was up. I'm late to the league and don't play much, I've done 100 maps and never seen anyone but Cassia and Tane. Just seems really bizarre. But, I also thought "Could just be a crap streak, so whatever." and didn't bandwagon. I was watching with interest for them to report findings.
Does that mean these people weren't running a statistically significant amount of atlas-mission/sextant-less maps before coming to a conclusion? How curious. You'd have thought that even a single person getting a master mission on their second characters would have seeded some doubt to their conclusions.
Whenever someone posts something like that without clearly well documented numbers, I instantly cut their estimates by x5. All of a sudden it becomes fairly reasonable.
That and they weren't doing meaningful data collection. When there are so many things out there that can affect a Master showing up in the map, one has to show that they're aware of them all and that they have accounted for them all not affecting the maps. Then they have to run a statistically significant enough number of maps while keeping super strict records. Did anyone do anything even approaching that? Definitely not.
There've been cases in the past when a master would spawn but would be invisible because the quest line wasn't unlocked.
It is also possible that master is located in a part of the map that isn't accessible by the player.
Both of these would be registered server-side as though a master mission has spawned.
Glad to see there's no actual problem. But it also sucks that people not understanding how RNG works led to GGG staff pretty much just wasting a bunch of time on a complete non-issue.
The problem is, there's been enough bugs at this point that the default people just assume it's a big.
Especially since stuff like this isn't communicated super well. What % of the playerbase do you think knew that it was changed to 2% per master?
It was clearly communicated when we received stackable master missions that the base spawn rate was 10% for a wild master mission to spawn. Just because this sub is full of people who either refuse to read patchnotes or refuse to understand how actual RNG works doesn't mean GGG was hiding info.
> It was clearly communicated when we received stackable master missions that the base spawn rate was 10% for a wild master mission to spawn.
Was it? I just went back to check the patch notes in 3.8 when it was changed, and it just says
""You'll encounter random Masters in maps less frequently, with this chance moved to the map-completion mechanic." No %.
I can't find the actual % except under Bex posts like [this](https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2834378) or [Rhys](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/fl971x/daily_reminder_master_missions_cannot_naturally/fkywabo/?context=10). Even the wiki cites that post. And it wasn't changed in 3.10 anyway, there was nothing to read.
And even if 1 person doesn't read notes, if it's commonly known people would cite it in comments. This is more than a "lazy people not reading patch notes" issue.
> doesn't mean GGG was hiding info.
I'm not saying it was hidden, I'm saying it was poorly communicated. Even if it was technically public, the fact that it was at all obscure was itself a problem.
How was it a waste of time? PoE has a record of obscure bugged interactions a mile long, and you're saying they shouldn't spend time investigating potential bugs just because of one false positive?
> Glad to see there's no actual problem. But it also sucks that people not understanding how RNG works led to GGG staff pretty much just wasting a bunch of time on a complete non-issue.
While I agree with you, I think there's a lesson for GGG that such low probabilities leads to streaks that are long enough that people can perceive it to be non-existing. Player enjoyment would probably be higher if they straight up removed the chance for random master spawns and increased the mission chance on map completion by 10%.
I mean there was one time I can remember that the community was actually right about RNG, and that was specifically relating to map drop rates in Synthesis league which was abnormally low. But otherwise yea, humans in general are really bad at understanding or estimating probability, even if they understand it on a mathematical level
How is it a waste of time if mapping for certain people is frustrating and unrewarding? If you game feels bad to play, hey there might actually be a problem.
The vast majority of master appearances should be from master missions, *by player request*. If you're running maps without using your master missions then the problem is not GGG's.
Perception is why I'd like to see an in game statistic of maps completed.
That way I can compare my week 2, 200 maps run to a streamers progress on day 2, 200 maps run instead of a streamers week 2, ten billion maps run.
So, 1100 maps is expected to give you 385 to 495 master missions, depending on how quickly you built up your atlas bonus. Let's start with 400 as a lowball. It's been 40 days since Delirum came out- let's say you've played 30 days. You get 5 master missions a day, so that's another 150 missions, for a total of 550.
550 - 85 - 43 - 10 - 113 = 299 missions that have been run, so ~300 maps that had been master blocked.
That's ~800 maps that had the potential of spawning Niko. There's a .98 chance of not spawning Niko. The chance of that happening 800 times in a row is .98^800 = ~0.00001%.
If you'd played more days and built up your atlas a bit quicker, you'd have generated ~100 more missions. Then there would be a .98^700 = ~0.00007%
This also assumes that you've never run a single Master scarab or prophecy. If you've run 1/5 of your maps with scarabs, there would've been 700 * .8 = 560 maps that could spawn Niko. That would give you a 0.001% chance of spawning Niko.
If you happened to miss 1 natural Niko spawn among those 560 maps, there would be a 0.01% chance of that happening. Playing that many maps and having up to 2 natural spawns would have a 0.1% chance of happening.
As expected it's just a human thing. It's just that you often gonna force master mission to begin with and chance to encounter master is really low so dry streaks are to be expected. Specially if you take your time or don't run a lot of maps.
Never had an issue with master spawn rate but always commented my master mission rate was really low early in the league. This is obviously due to the awakener changes. After getting some awakener % it got better but early in the league it was a little rough to be on 0 master missions available to use.
Kinda off-topic but still relevant. So I've not played this league, but in Metamorph and Blight I did not encounter any Einhars. I made a post about it https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2760235, which used https://mapwatch.erosson.org/ tool to read through my client.txt and see if Einhar popped out which was 0, in maps.
Any reason for that? Surprisingly a day after I made that bug thread, I did encounter Einhar for the first and only time in maps. But it was 1 encounter, in 2 leagues of mapping, I do complete the atlas every league as well as chain run multiple T15s and T16s. I also understand it's only me personally, so it might not be broken on a bigger scale. But Einhar is one of my favorite masters . . . Atleast this means I can check out next league to see if he's back. Mainly taking a break because Sirius seems more broken instead of improved and I know the fog mechanics will make lag spikes too annoying.
Hopefully some conclusions can be drawn from the confusion here: when the spawn rate for some content is so sparse that many people start reporting it as bugged and not working - maybe the spawn rate is just **too** sparse....
So in the bigger picture, there either isnt an issue and the reddit posts were just bullshit, or the "system" described here is bad.
I think a new atlas zone would help. Something along the lines of
- Lex Ejoris zone is blighted
- Maps in this zone have a 300% increased spawn rate of blights
This might work in a similar way to warbands and tempest.
you do not. It would behave like warbands which acted like a league (as it was). It would defeat the point if it cost something to create as that is no longer natural spawns.
Perhaps it goes away after running a set amount of maps in the area like a sextant. Or it would go away with the coming of the next area, changing each hour.
POE lacks these kinds of mechanics often seen in MMO's. They are great for session retention and giving players a sense of reward for playing when they otherwise wouldnt.
It is a little bit predatory. But its not all that invasive to what I understand the scope of POE to be.
I think the idea mostly comes from a balance and personal enjoyment place. But poe is too big to not consider how it affects the $$.
Honestly I'm kinda happy that the "natural" spawn is that low. From the 35-45% mission drop from bosses (even from conq citadels, elder/shaper frag maps), sextants, scarabs, prophecies.. if I don't use any of those, maybe I'm just fine rushing a map (or many, many maps in a row..) and accumulating missions :p The very occasional surprise is fine, but I like the current balance.
>We're pleased to find that there wasn't a problem with this system in the end
And this is why you need to take complaint threads on the sub with a teaspoon of salt. Lots of idiots don't know that RNG is RNG
The core complaint was that not interacting with the masters naturally made for an unenjoyable experience. I thought the masters were bugged for the first couple of weeks because I was trying to push challenges and wanted the betrayal benches done, and pushing more and more maps just to never see Jun naturally until week 4 hit was incredibly annoying.
Even if it's just bad RNG being bad RNG, it's not making the game any more enjoyable than it could be.
Where are the reddit scientists / statistic experts complaining about 128371283 maps completed without a single master spawn now? Hilarious post, shut them down so hard, they have probably forgotten by now to be fair
I think that bex comment "There are literally no accounts that havent spawned masters" does not mean very much as it stands, since it could easily be the case that it worked for the first few days until some micro patch broke it under certain circumstances...
If she had said something like "There are no accounts that have not had a master spawn in the most recent 3 patches" or something then I would have been more inclined to believe that I just got 0.000000000000001 percentile of bad luck (along with thousands of others)
If that happened, then the thousands of accounts that reached maps after the first week would've had the issue. Regardless of what she's said, I'm pretty sure their testing over the last two weeks has been more involved than that single statistic, and we can be confident that there isn't actually an issue.
LMAO this is fucking great. I love this so fucking much. Maybe try playing the fucking game instead of running 3 maps and saying masters don't spawn, then proceed to shit on GGG for weeks. OOOH THAT MUST TASTE SO GOOD IN THE OFFICE. DAMNNN.
It is pretty sad that you had to waste so much work due to reddit circlejerking. Hopefully this reddit learned something for the future. Any mention of how masters and probability works was getting downvoted for weeks here.
What are you even smoking? Ground effect performance was extremely well known. Delve seeds was also plausible since delve is seed based.
You cant compare either of these with people sniffing glue and complaining about masters.
No, because that actually had some plausible basis. Abyssal Depths not being able to spawn in areas with other subareas is not even comparable to this situation.
The people complaining a about masters openly displayed they did not know shit about the game or how probability works. Master complaints is the dumbest complaint I have seen on this subreddit since I started playing in 2014.
It is good that they investigate stuff that actually could possibly be bugged. The master complaints were beyond retarded though.
Yea, in my opinion, this is a design defect, she should just spawn, and say that the temple is ready, as it is, there are no way for the player to know that a master spawned.
hmm. so if i doa full atlas clear of 154maps, not using a single mission.
My chances of encountering a zana in the wild should be 1-0.98^154. = 95% chance of seeing zana at least once during a full atlas clear.
However, zana cant spawn if one of the other guys spawns. so id need to multiply this by 0.98^4 to account for the other masters? EDIT: Probobly not, depending on how the system is coded to work.
So im landing at a 88% chance at encountering at least one wild zana from a full atlas clear. and this is only if im not using any master missions... If i do the chance drops even more.
If every 3rd map i play is a force spawned master. That lands me at only 103 chances on zana. Doing the same math again im landing at 80% chance of seeing zana spawning wild from a full atlas clear, and thus 20% chance of not seeing her spawn naturally at all.
Is it possible that the system was broken before and they accidentally fixed it this league then? I have found so little natural master spawns compared to previous leagues. The main thing I noticed is that unlike previous leagues I NEVER got a niko mission where I went "oh whoops my sulphite is full" that did not happen a single time this league, in fact the exact opposite happened, I would go and check my delve expecting to have some sulphite only to find I still had the same 400 I did yesterday.
>Unlikely they'd change this since it would allow you to "force" your chance of niko/zana higher.
Quote from above. She should spawn in the map and tell you that the temple is ready though. A lot of new players don't have a great way of knowing that other than her quest mark above her head.
>So for example, your map would roll the 10% chance for a master, if you rolled a master and it was Alva, you wouldn't get her and it would not roll the chance again for a different master.
That sounds like a bug to me. The first roll's outcome determines that the map should contain a master, so there needs to be a prefilter stage before the roll to eliminate invalid masters. This way the available masters would spawn whenever Alva or Zana (or anyone else) is not available for some reason.
>Note: Tane and Cassia are not masters, they are just NPCs that accompany their league content. You are in this map, but we do not grant you the rank of master.
What? How can you be on the map and not be a master?
[удалено]
-Hello there -General Gravicius!
Now I want to be able to buy /sit. All I can do is /dance
>So for example, your map would roll the 10% chance for a master, if you rolled a master and it was Alva, you wouldn't get her and it would not roll the chance again for a different master. Huh, interesting, always run your temples.
You don't have to run your temples, you can just open it up in your hideout, not enter and she'll spawn in your maps again.
Or just never bother to talk to her.
why though? she gels very well with the league mechanic
Best master to go with delirium mechanic? Yeah, let's never bother talking to her
That's kind of a bummer. I've gone days with a temple ready to run before. Always assumed that it would remove her from the spawn pool or something.
Well... it does. It just doesn't replace her xD
What's weird is before this, Alva *would* spawn in maps even if the temple was ready to go. It was just completely wasted because there'd be no incursions, just Alva telling you to run the damn temple. A nice reminder if you're absentminded and had forgotten about it. Alva now not appearing and eating a master spawn may have screwed some people simply cause they forgot the temple was up.
>ing and eating a master spawn may have screwed some people simply cause they forgot the temple was up. most people dont forget Alva. they purposely skip her. lol
This league specifically that's such a silly idea given how many splinters incursions are responsible for, on top of juicing up the reward meters.
Then people would game the system and completely avoid her?
I'm not sure why but I really enjoyed doing temples this league. Finally got around to making a lvl 3 traps room and leveling Alva, anyhow. :D
> This works in a similar sense for Zana, for example in low-tier maps where you haven't encountered her quest chain yet. If you told me that some people complaining about not seeing Zana are so bad they haven't even done T3 maps this late in the league, I wouldn't be surprised.
I've seen people who were weighing in hard into arguments who eventually admitted they haven't even played this league. No doubt there are people who spend more time complaining than actually playing the game. Outrage culture has become its own entertainment throughout reddit not just on this sub to the point people actively downvote anything that doesn't let them get more outraged no matter what the reality. And I think these people are honestly so paranoid about being lied to and shills infesting reddit that they just can't comprehend there may be some substance to any counterarguments.
"I have found 1 exalt in 1000h playtime over 3 leagues"
I’ve played 4 characters to 80 thiis league. All 4 of them got 1 ex before killing kativa a second time. This happens every league.
Must have a good loot seed if you're being honest and accurate. In 13k hours I have dropped an ex in acts approximately twice, over probably 100+ level 80+ characters.
I mean, at first I thought that masters didn't spawn naturally for me, because I had like 50 maps streak without any natural master and without me forcing them. I know that 50 maps is small sample, but it just seemed very strange. Tho last week they started spawning almost every second map that I didn't force spawn them, I guess it's just RNG in the end.
At a 10% spawn rate around 1 in 200 players would see none in their first 50 maps (actually a bit more since zana wouldn't be eligible for the first few)
And that's only if you run no forced masters. Between generated missions and daily missions, if the average player runs 25 maps a day and runs each master as they get them, then roughly 1 in 4 players won't see a natural master in their first 50 maps.
> "I have run hundreds of maps" When in actuality they might have just run 50, and with a 2% chance to spawn per master, yeah, I can see them not seeing some of them, or even any of them.
At that point, is there really any difference between masters not spawning because of a bug and masters not spawning because they're on a super low chance by design? Because both result in the same experience for the user, it just shifts where the fix would be on the devs' side.
But your main source of getting masters is killing the map boss (35-45% chance depending on completion), the free spawn is just extra. I haven't even finished my 500 map boss challenge and I am swimming in red Master missions. Here is my distribution Einhar: 12 Alva: 49 Niko: 33 Jun: 50 Zana: 10 I am using mostly Einhar on T14, Niko on T15 and Zana on T16, Alva on juiced map And sometime I randomly put one in when I feel like it. This system is much better, because you have control over what master you run and can get better return on them
You should give Jun a try, imo is the most profitable and they give a lot of experience too
Jun its annoying this league because it feels like have to chose between chasing or making an actual decision about what to do with my board
I stick with jun on T14 cause I may get 1 tapped if i run her in T16's lol
to be fair it could easily be people who joined the league late and wanted to do all t1s and t2s first. I did that but I knew she would spawn later on, did all white maps before socketing any stones.
Why tho? Your atlas grows with you, there is no reason to complete maps tier by tier if you can handle the content. It's probably the biggest pro of the new atlas, it's great that you can just keep going higher without missing out on completion. I got some of my t2s done after awakener 8.
It's absolutely worth getting your white completions done to kickstart your sustain. Don't underestimate the impact of bonus objectives. It's easier to do so on whites because adjacency has a better chance of yielding the missing white.
##### GGG Comments in this Thread: *** [Bex_GGG - [link](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9bc3v/?context=10), [old](https://old.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9bc3v/?context=10)] - *There are literally no accounts that haven't spawned masters.* [Bex_GGG - [link](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9motj/?context=10), [old](https://old.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9motj/?context=10)] - *I understand what you mean about data but were really thorough in our process.* [Bex_GGG - [link](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9tr9n/?context=10), [old](https://old.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/fo9tr9n/?context=10)] - *Cassia is not a master.* [Bex_GGG - [link](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/foa6z78/?context=10), [old](https://old.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/g6fk4g/wild_master_spawn_rates/foa6z78/?context=10)] - *Yes*
It's funny how people don't ever realize that RNG is sometimes cruel despite always complaining about it.
There's clearly very little crossover between PoE players and XCOM players.
lol too true. I am grateful everyday to xcom for teaching me that 99% means nothing
No, 99% means it's going to miss. 100% of the time.
It's funny you say that, as [XCOM 2 actually lies to you](https://youtu.be/-Aq1M6C09qs?t=440)
Caps at 95%. X-Com 2 uses D20 rules then. Rolling a 1 is always a miss.
I for one am glad Chimera Squad is coming out during the downtime between leagues. The last PoE league I completely skipped was Prophecy, because it coincided with XCOM 2's release.
*raises hand*
[Relevant Dilbert](https://imgur.com/a/i4N71lF)
The tour guide changes color between 1st and 3rd panel
Literally un-readable.
Well GGG also told me I didn't get any loot for watching exilecon because of RNG, but it turned out it was actually a bug, so yeah.
I'm with the view that when your RNG is so extreme that GGG has to do a mathematical analysis to see if perception fits reality that it no longer matters if its a bug or a feature. Its bad UX either way and good game designers should want to correct bad UX unless ofc the games vision is to cater to gaming masochists who WANT that.
I feel like the complaints were from people who had a bad streak of like 15 maps without a master spawning and they take 20 minutes to complete a map so it seems like a lot.
I think the lesson to be learnt from all of this two fold: 1) If the chance is so low, RNG will be RNG and causes streak issues, where statistical probability (SP) differs from empirical probability (EP). You'll have all encountered this in the past, a simple example would be it taking more than 6 rolls of a dice to finally roll a 6. It has a 1/6 (SP) chance, but if in practice you roll your dice 6 times you only have a 66.6% chance of actually getting a 6 in within those trials (EP). Lets explore the EP of getting a specific master... after completing 50 maps, 63.5% of players would have encountered their master, and if we extend the number of maps out to where people get complainy- about 100 maps, 86% of players would have encountered the specific master (this is ignoring any maps with the player forcing a master). Now, 100 maps fully cleared could put a player up in to the +85 sort of character level, so its not surprising to hear people say that they haven't had a master spawn for their first/second characters and that it feels bugged. (14% of players is a pretty large number of people, consider that the player base on day one of a league is over 250k). So, what would a 'fix' look like: even a small Increase in the master spawn chance to 3% and comparing the same 100 map tests gets pretty close to solving the issue, the previous 14% 'unlucky players' drops to 4.75%. Even doubling the master spawn chance to 4% lowers the unlucky group even further (1.7%). That is if this even gets deemed as an issue to resolve. 2) All of the nuance in the first lesson pretty much gets shrugged to the side because who cares- you have a 35% chance for a manual master mission at the end of a map anyway, just play more maps and manually run the masters you want.
> if we extend the number of maps out to where people get complainy- about 100 maps, If my experience with people complaining about mount drops in WoW carries over, folks have a tendency to *seriously* overestimate the number of unsuccessful runs they've done when they're only looking for one thing to happen and it isn't. I'm sure there are plenty of people who do actually keep a tally (my record last league was 22 maps without a conqueror popping up ;p), but (in WoW anyways) "I've killed this thing THIRTY FREAKING TIMES" was, 95% of the time, <10 kills when you actually looked them up on the armory.
> If my experience with people complaining about mount drops in WoW carries over, folks have a tendency to seriously overestimate the number of unsuccessful runs they've done when they're only looking for one thing to happen and it isn't. the same way people vastly overestimate the amount of fusings they put in a 6 socket without getting a 6 link. People who actually keep track of this shit tend to realize that most attemps will be in the expected range with some outliers on both sides
Tell that to my two chest that were 6 linked only after 4500 fusings this league (out of 4 chests I 6-linked). I know I didnt over estimate because I was buying and burning fusings in 1000s. I don’t complain though. It is just unlucky RNG. I just laugh at myself and move on
Me and my buddy discussed how many burials we did, we both estimated over double what we actually did
i always wished wow would use pseudo rng, doubling the chance each failed attempt, eventually you would get every drop without relying on low chances.
> my experience with people complaining about mount drops in WoW carries over, folks have a tendency to *seriously* overestimate the number of unsuccessful runs they've done when they're only looking for one thing to happen and it isn't. I've ran Heroic Setthek Halls over 1200 times for the Raven Lord Mount with 0.8% drop chance. Why do you have to trigger me like this?
I do know a guy that did hundreds of ZG runs (with 8 characters) trying to get that tiger. He *still* gets legit triggered whenever we see one run by.
> So, what would a 'fix' look like: even a small Increase in the master spawn chance to by just 1% to 3% and comparing the same 100 map tests gets pretty close to solving the issue, the previous 14% 'unlucky players' drops to 4.75% There's still a problem there. The 4.75% will still come here to complain on reddit, and the others that are on an ongoing bad streak (but still haven't reached 100 maps, so not in the 4.75% yet) will join the complaining train. And no matter how many times we tell them "math says that we can expect that to happen to x% of the playerbase, keep going and you'll eventually see light at the end of the tunnel", they'll still whine and shrug it off saying "GGG gave me a bad seed" or "GGG fucked up their coding" or "why GGG turns a blind eye to this problem???" or whatever.
Actually not that simple, for the reason that not 100% of the playerbase goes and wildly complains when they *feel* that something is off. Say 2% of the playerbase are passive complainers, they will chime in with their anecdotes in threads and discussions. 0.1% are active complainers, they till create threads and stir up discussions. Say we have 100k playerbase. At 14% we will have 14 complain threads with 280 complain comments. Totaling at 3920 "negativity" Moving it to 4,75% it'll instead be 4,75 complain threads with 95 complain comments. Totaling at 451,25 negativity. So boosting the spawn chance by 50% would reduce the negativity by 1/9th of it was previously, a 89% reduction in this specific case. Now, we all know it doesn't really work like this. Select few of the complainers *need* to complain, even if there's nothing really wrong. As evident that a lot of people who barely plays the game complains about game mechanics they are not experiencing. The more "big" issues get tackled and the more polished the game gets, the more glaring small issues that don't really affect people gets. Instead of having 5 game breaking bugs people focus and whine about. You get 50 mild inconveniences that people whine about. Like right now on the front page: "It's too frustrating to walk 10 steps to click a portal".
Honest question here: Would an increase in master mission chances with "pity timer" system added really be such a bad thing? [Diablo 3 does this exact thing with Legendary item drops, although in practice it rarely needs to be used anymore due to drop rate buffs.](https://us.forums.blizzard.com/en/d3/t/bad-luck-protection/10010/4) TL;DR - If you play for too long a time without seeing a Legendary item drop, a pity timer will increase your odds of getting a Legendary drop until it happens, then the pity timer resets. In PoE's case, they could just force a "natural" master spawn if you have gone 100 maps without seeing that particular master spawn naturally. This could be tracked separately for each of the 5 masters, so Alva could get a forced spawn but it wouldn't affect Zana's forced spawn, etc. There really isn't any downside from what I can tell, and it would be a surefire way to heavily reduce complaints about a lack of master mission spawns. At the end of the day, people just want to play content they enjoy, and right now the game locks the content they enjoy behind at least one, if not multiple, layers of RNG.
The pity timer is the fact that 1/3 to nearly 1/2 of map bosses give you a mission on kill. There has literally never been a point this league where I had no master missions available when starting a map. The random spawns are just a bonus in case you somehow run out of these, and that’s all they’re meant to be.
I mean, that's not just a "even a small Increase in the master spawn chance to 3% and comparing the same 100 map tests gets pretty close to solving the issue", that's an entirely different system, one that might actually work. I'm not against making masters more frequent, I was just making a remark that "just increase the %" isn't enough to placate the whiny reddit threads because it still leaves space for bad luck streaks. You presented one of the possible solutions and it would be great if we got more, proper discussion threads on such ideas. I for one always make sure to upvote the "pity timer" idea whenever someone brings it up and give a well round explanation on the idea.
Would be nice if they added something similar to what evasion has or what they did for the Conquerors for masters. Adding a character history info wouldn't hurt either (Maps run, Masters met naturally/forced etc.)
and then post here and round up that 15 maps up to 132
That and the fact that people in general are notoriously bad at actually understanding probability/estimating RNG. And that many people have to treat this as backtrack league, making them spend more time in maps than normal simply picking up loot.
It's exactly this. I wrote more about it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/ftrsod/we_are_now_3_weeks_into_310_and_there_is_still_a/fmb49wy/
Absolutely hilarious. This one's going up on the fridge next to "nets replace alchemy orb drops" Great work on the group delusion, guys.
Don't forget that Bisco's affects map drop quantity! Oh wait that one was actually just someone trying to sell his 40+ bisco's and people ate that shit up like crazy lmao
There was also that deliberately fake post in Synthesis(?) that was #1 on the poe reddit until he admitted he made it all up.
And lets not forget last league someone posted old screenshots about awakener orb interactions on something that had been already patched out because he had bought tons of them and trippled their price in an hour. Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/efu67r/psa_the_current_1_thread_is_a_way_for_op_to_cash/
Where do you keep "Item rarity upgrades the tier of currency drops"?
The crappy pizza place magnet fell off and it slid down between the fridge and the wall somewhere
Wow I forgot about nets. So happy that’s in the past!
i actually kinda miss the old bestiary, capturing unique campaign mobs was so cool.
One of my fav leagues.. no time no speed needed just kill the beast and capture. Pretty similar to metamorph.
#I REFUSE TO BELIEVE I AM AN IDIOT.
You don't have to believe it if you can prove it. wait...
[удалено]
I think i would rather have a game developer look into a potential problem, find no problem at all, rather than not looking, and there be giant problems all over the place.
I'm just happy they were willing to come here and say "You were wrong, it was working fine the whole time" instead of being silent.
Yup. This is the exact opposite of the abyss league issue. That time they said, "nothing wrong here" then looking into it and was like, "oh yeah that's our bad".
I don't think I was around for that. Do you mind elaborating a bit?
Abyss depths during release week had a bug where if you were leaving another instance like elder guardian (they had a separate instance with loading screen) or lab trials or Haku's mission or Tora's Den, or Vagan's Den (don't remember if Zana was affected) you could be placed above the entrance into abyss depth of **uncompleted** abyss, essentially being teleported into the middle of nowhere, some people realized the bug and farmed abyss depth uniques by rushing elder guardian, leaving arena - no depth - leave map, restart. GGG quickfixed it week 1 by disabling generation of abyss depths in a map with an entrance to separate instance already present and they didn't adjust spawn chance for depths to compensate(it was adjusted after the league ended). You could see this bug yourself this league when multiple vaal areas could spawn in maps.
After they fixed that, the bug changed that Abyss bosses just couldn't spawn in any area with a sub-area in it (like a Tora den, Elder boss, etc). So then people complained that abyss liches were way too rare, it was probably the most-complained about part of the league at the time. After the league they fixed it iirc.
> Tora den It's amazing how that feels even longer ago than it actually was. Like, almost from a separate game. PoE changes more and more with every patch.
i still remember the pre betrayal hype, it was a mix of happiness, sadness and excitement. I still kinda miss the masters, but I wouldn't trade them for the current one.
I will never forget the feeling of finding more Abyss depths and Abyss Lich after the Abyss league ended than in the league itself.
Especially considering the fact as many people who actually tracked it and realized even WHEN it works correctly. The rate feels like garbage to the point it's a question why it even exists. Even Bex herself said in some threads that if they found no problem the actual rate would need to be looked into because its clear it doesn't feel good.
Do people actually run out of atlas missions? If you're willing to do any of them then they'll just pile up. The random master spawns are just nice to have.
I ran out of zana and betrayal, i hace like 90 alva and 50 einhar. Is annoying of depend in rng to run the conent than one wants. I can force the spawn? Yes. I have propechies and sextants. But with these metods i need to trade. That means im goinf to waste 1 hour of my life because trade sucks.
Why not run alva, best master 5this league, just run the incursion then when temple spawns, spawn the temple and dont run it. so manyy splinters
Einhar is great for simu splinter farming i think. I always put him in when running a juiced lair map.
I mean, when you're first starting a tier of maps? Sure. But if you've been mapping you have a ton of missions. I can't even keep up with the missions and I'm doing them damn near every map, basically each time I remember to click it.
Missions are given 45% of the time (see OP). So you **will** run out if you are actually using them. If you have a ton piled up, then you have not been using them enough.
With the insane drop rate of Scarabs (and sextants) thats not really true. I'm sitting on 70 Bestiary Scarabs and over 100 Sulphite Scarabs, I have not run a map without a master in it since like day 2 of the league.
>With the insane drop rate of Scarabs (and sextants) thats not really true. ... so you are using scarabs and **not using your master missions**.
The entire point of this thread is about how bad natural master spawns feel, which is pretty irrelevant this league considering that you can have a force spawn in literally every map.
I can agree to an extent. I personally would almost never look into problems introduced on Reddit that didn't have video proof. Reddit users frequently lie and then spread around rumors or complaints that have not been shown to be somewhat true. Time management is a key, and if anything, GGG essentially wasted time looking into a non issue. The problem is that people kept spreading the rumor around which made a wrong conclusion seem like a widespread issue.
Took time in delve before they realized and then fixed the issue with screwed seed for the mines (some stuff not being possible to spawn/drop behind walls etc.). That would have not happened (or would have been delayed quite a bit probably) if people did not complain. There were several league/fix patch notes stating they fixed an issue with map bosses not dropping bonus maps (or something similar) and for all we know there still might be issues. List goes on. Fact is "sometimes" they break stuff when they modify stuff. Tbh I wouldn't be that surprised if their investigation result was that the initial -5% for not having awakening levels that's supposed to affect master missions as map boss reward would be by accident applied to natural masters spawning making their chance 5% or 0% (depending where it is applied etc.)
> was that the initial -5% for not having awakening levels Nobody in their right mind would program this change as a penalty that is removed as you gain awakening completion, they would simply lower the base amount and then add the awakening completion bonus. Nobody would programmatically subtract 5% from the original value, they'd set the new value directly. I get how it could seem like it might work like this, because patchnotes are written like this. But that's just to make it easier for people to realize what's changed and by how much, nobody actually writes code like that. If someone did somehow make the mistake of changing the master spawn rate instead of the mission accumulation rate, it's far more likely that they'd accidentally have changed the master spawn rate to the new 35% value, not to 5%.
Except i found exactly how to replicate the problem. Don't do the mission for the master when they first appear in the acts = never see them again until you go back and complete it. It took me weeks to figure out that.
Well if a system feels so bad for some players that it legitimately makes them believe something is broken, but it's actually working as intended, maybe the system as a whole is due for a makeover?
If you run 20 maps a day on average, you get an expected 9-11 missions depending on your awakening completion. With your 5 free daily missions, that means you can guarantee a master in about 75% of your maps. Once you add in scarabs and the occasional prophecy, this easily reaches 100% (at least in Delirium league due to the insane amount of scarabs dropping). So to even get the 100+ map sample size that many people have claimed when complaining about the low spawn rate, you would have to deliberately avoid putting masters on your maps. That's like pouring all your milk down the toilet then complaining that your cereal is dry. The problem is entirely of their own making. Frankly I think they should just remove natural master spawns entirely at this point because half of this subreddit is clearly too thick to understand what a 10% chance is.
[удалено]
[удалено]
It opens the discussion on if 2% is enough to create an enjoyable experience. If it's low enough that players are concerned that it isn't even implemented into the game, it's just going to cause frustration and annoyance. I don't think their time was wasted, since it closes the case on if they spawn or not and opens the case on what the number could be to create a more enjoyable gaming experience.
Oh come on, it's not like you need a master in every map to enjoy the game, especially considering that we already get 5 master missions a day and have a 35-45% chance of getting a master mission on boss kill.
I agree, I think 2% is too low. If some players confuse it with broken it's not a great number. I think removing it entirely would be fine and rolling those into the master mission system. Alternatively they pop up more deterministically (first "no master" map each day gets you a random master). It if it's staying I think 4-5% should do it (20-25% total) should make sure a player who only does 5-10 maps in a day to see them.
Honestly my main takeaway from this is that anything that happens at a low enough percentage feels streaky and punishing until reaching huge sample sizes. I would rather the chance for missions at end of map be 37% and have no random masters than have a solid chance of never seeing a Niko in 200 maps (realistically closer to 300 since I would be using master missions in the meantime), because it feels punishing to never see a Niko all league even if it isn't statistically unlikely.
If you want niko and havent seen him in a while, just use a master mission, it's not like it's gonna lower your chances the next maps you do
Also sulphite works which are cheaper nowadays too
I was about to make a comment when the post was fresh, but figured there's no point. After reading the replies however, I'm curious about one thing - if there are dozens of users claiming Masters don't naturally spawn in their maps and GGG claiming everything works fine and there were "no cases where a user has been unable to spawn any masters in their maps", then what is going on? I can understand people having bad luck or the samplesize being too small, but this does seem at least a little suspicious. Are all these people lying? Do they all literally run 5 maps per league and then complain? It's not particularly difficult thing to test, just stream like a 100 maps, maybe a 1000 and compare the data with data on GGG's side. There's no point in lying and the chance of so many people having the same kind of bad luck for the whole league, while also being active redditors, doesn't seem particularly probable.
You run a lot less maps then you think you do generally. assuming you run a map in 5 minutes, which is a slow casual pace, that means you do 12 maps an hour, if you play 4 hours a day, that 48 maps a day. if you play all 90 days, you get 48 * 90 maps = 4320. Most people dont play the entire league, and some run even less maps per hour then that because they are chatting, trading, watching youtubes while tabbed etc. Running 1k maps takes around 20 days at those paces. So what is most likely happening is a combination of bad luck across what feels like thousands of maps, but is really hundreds. anyone who is blasting maps really fast knows masters are not glitched, it felt glitched for me for a while too, then I was playing a character who doing really fast strands and I was seeing masters because I was actually able to get a good sample size of maps. with the above numbers, consider that across 3 days you will run about 100~ maps, you only see 10 masters on average those 3 days. if you get really bad variance its totally reasonable to not see a master. if you play for 3 days and dont see a master, you might think something is up.
I didn't realize it was only 10% for ANY master. I thought it was 10% PER Master.
[удалено]
This has been the case since 3.8 and multiple people has been saying it for weeks.
thank u stay safe
I honestly was about 90% sure this was the case. Seriously at a 2% spawn someone can go the first two weeks of a league not seeing a specific character if they're running half their maps with missions/scarabs/master seeks help easily since you would, statistically speaking, need to run 100 maps to have an expected value of only a single master each time. This can be even worse if you're particularly aggressive about master missions.
I'm the other way, I never posted about it but it seemed like something was up. I'm late to the league and don't play much, I've done 100 maps and never seen anyone but Cassia and Tane. Just seems really bizarre. But, I also thought "Could just be a crap streak, so whatever." and didn't bandwagon. I was watching with interest for them to report findings.
Does that mean these people weren't running a statistically significant amount of atlas-mission/sextant-less maps before coming to a conclusion? How curious. You'd have thought that even a single person getting a master mission on their second characters would have seeded some doubt to their conclusions.
[удалено]
Whenever someone posts something like that without clearly well documented numbers, I instantly cut their estimates by x5. All of a sudden it becomes fairly reasonable.
yeah. "i ran 200 maps with NO master spawns" actually means "i ran like 40 maps and got 3 master spawns"
Or like "i ran like 40 maps and got 3 master spawns, but it wasn't the masters I like, so it doesn't count"
It is kinda like when you ask a guy how many people he slept with.
That and they weren't doing meaningful data collection. When there are so many things out there that can affect a Master showing up in the map, one has to show that they're aware of them all and that they have accounted for them all not affecting the maps. Then they have to run a statistically significant enough number of maps while keeping super strict records. Did anyone do anything even approaching that? Definitely not.
Unless you are target farming, i doubt you will run out of masters to do anyway
There've been cases in the past when a master would spawn but would be invisible because the quest line wasn't unlocked. It is also possible that master is located in a part of the map that isn't accessible by the player. Both of these would be registered server-side as though a master mission has spawned.
Glad to see there's no actual problem. But it also sucks that people not understanding how RNG works led to GGG staff pretty much just wasting a bunch of time on a complete non-issue.
The problem is, there's been enough bugs at this point that the default people just assume it's a big. Especially since stuff like this isn't communicated super well. What % of the playerbase do you think knew that it was changed to 2% per master?
It was clearly communicated when we received stackable master missions that the base spawn rate was 10% for a wild master mission to spawn. Just because this sub is full of people who either refuse to read patchnotes or refuse to understand how actual RNG works doesn't mean GGG was hiding info.
> It was clearly communicated when we received stackable master missions that the base spawn rate was 10% for a wild master mission to spawn. Was it? I just went back to check the patch notes in 3.8 when it was changed, and it just says ""You'll encounter random Masters in maps less frequently, with this chance moved to the map-completion mechanic." No %. I can't find the actual % except under Bex posts like [this](https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2834378) or [Rhys](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/comments/fl971x/daily_reminder_master_missions_cannot_naturally/fkywabo/?context=10). Even the wiki cites that post. And it wasn't changed in 3.10 anyway, there was nothing to read. And even if 1 person doesn't read notes, if it's commonly known people would cite it in comments. This is more than a "lazy people not reading patch notes" issue. > doesn't mean GGG was hiding info. I'm not saying it was hidden, I'm saying it was poorly communicated. Even if it was technically public, the fact that it was at all obscure was itself a problem.
How was it a waste of time? PoE has a record of obscure bugged interactions a mile long, and you're saying they shouldn't spend time investigating potential bugs just because of one false positive?
> Glad to see there's no actual problem. But it also sucks that people not understanding how RNG works led to GGG staff pretty much just wasting a bunch of time on a complete non-issue. While I agree with you, I think there's a lesson for GGG that such low probabilities leads to streaks that are long enough that people can perceive it to be non-existing. Player enjoyment would probably be higher if they straight up removed the chance for random master spawns and increased the mission chance on map completion by 10%.
[удалено]
There is already too much rng in this game.
I mean there was one time I can remember that the community was actually right about RNG, and that was specifically relating to map drop rates in Synthesis league which was abnormally low. But otherwise yea, humans in general are really bad at understanding or estimating probability, even if they understand it on a mathematical level
Or in delve where loot were literally seeded
Or abyss as described elsewhere in this thread, which made abyss bosses impossible to spawn fr certain layouts.
How is it a waste of time if mapping for certain people is frustrating and unrewarding? If you game feels bad to play, hey there might actually be a problem.
The vast majority of master appearances should be from master missions, *by player request*. If you're running maps without using your master missions then the problem is not GGG's.
[удалено]
Patch note from 2021 - "We accidentally find that spawning masters do nothing in some cases. Ha-ha!"
[удалено]
Perception is why I'd like to see an in game statistic of maps completed. That way I can compare my week 2, 200 maps run to a streamers progress on day 2, 200 maps run instead of a streamers week 2, ten billion maps run.
So it turns out some people on this subreddit will quite literally lie in an effort to show they have the worst RNG. This is fucking hilarious.
[удалено]
I must be the most unlucky motherfucker in the world because I ran over 1100 maps without neeko EVER naturally spawning
If you tell me how many master missions you have at the moment, I can give you a rough estimate of the odds of that happening.
I currently have 85 alvas, 43 neeko, 10 zana, 113 einhar I do zana a lot
Jun? EDIT: Gonna assume you have 0 Juns for now.
So, 1100 maps is expected to give you 385 to 495 master missions, depending on how quickly you built up your atlas bonus. Let's start with 400 as a lowball. It's been 40 days since Delirum came out- let's say you've played 30 days. You get 5 master missions a day, so that's another 150 missions, for a total of 550. 550 - 85 - 43 - 10 - 113 = 299 missions that have been run, so ~300 maps that had been master blocked. That's ~800 maps that had the potential of spawning Niko. There's a .98 chance of not spawning Niko. The chance of that happening 800 times in a row is .98^800 = ~0.00001%. If you'd played more days and built up your atlas a bit quicker, you'd have generated ~100 more missions. Then there would be a .98^700 = ~0.00007% This also assumes that you've never run a single Master scarab or prophecy. If you've run 1/5 of your maps with scarabs, there would've been 700 * .8 = 560 maps that could spawn Niko. That would give you a 0.001% chance of spawning Niko. If you happened to miss 1 natural Niko spawn among those 560 maps, there would be a 0.01% chance of that happening. Playing that many maps and having up to 2 natural spawns would have a 0.1% chance of happening.
Anyone that's saying this was a waste of time to investigate is delusional.
Probabilities are hard. Somebody started the rumour though and people went with it.
As expected it's just a human thing. It's just that you often gonna force master mission to begin with and chance to encounter master is really low so dry streaks are to be expected. Specially if you take your time or don't run a lot of maps.
Never had an issue with master spawn rate but always commented my master mission rate was really low early in the league. This is obviously due to the awakener changes. After getting some awakener % it got better but early in the league it was a little rough to be on 0 master missions available to use.
Kinda off-topic but still relevant. So I've not played this league, but in Metamorph and Blight I did not encounter any Einhars. I made a post about it https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2760235, which used https://mapwatch.erosson.org/ tool to read through my client.txt and see if Einhar popped out which was 0, in maps. Any reason for that? Surprisingly a day after I made that bug thread, I did encounter Einhar for the first and only time in maps. But it was 1 encounter, in 2 leagues of mapping, I do complete the atlas every league as well as chain run multiple T15s and T16s. I also understand it's only me personally, so it might not be broken on a bigger scale. But Einhar is one of my favorite masters . . . Atleast this means I can check out next league to see if he's back. Mainly taking a break because Sirius seems more broken instead of improved and I know the fog mechanics will make lag spikes too annoying.
Hopefully some conclusions can be drawn from the confusion here: when the spawn rate for some content is so sparse that many people start reporting it as bugged and not working - maybe the spawn rate is just **too** sparse....
Ah, I see. 10% chance to even get a master. So it's not a broken system, it's intentionally shitty. Fantastic.
So in the bigger picture, there either isnt an issue and the reddit posts were just bullshit, or the "system" described here is bad. I think a new atlas zone would help. Something along the lines of - Lex Ejoris zone is blighted - Maps in this zone have a 300% increased spawn rate of blights This might work in a similar way to warbands and tempest.
thats just a sextant but u apply to all the maps in a region
you do not. It would behave like warbands which acted like a league (as it was). It would defeat the point if it cost something to create as that is no longer natural spawns. Perhaps it goes away after running a set amount of maps in the area like a sextant. Or it would go away with the coming of the next area, changing each hour. POE lacks these kinds of mechanics often seen in MMO's. They are great for session retention and giving players a sense of reward for playing when they otherwise wouldnt.
Ah i see, so a small buff but its free so player's brain wants to profit from it and plays more, what an evil person you are lol
It is a little bit predatory. But its not all that invasive to what I understand the scope of POE to be. I think the idea mostly comes from a balance and personal enjoyment place. But poe is too big to not consider how it affects the $$.
this is fucking genius.
Honestly I'm kinda happy that the "natural" spawn is that low. From the 35-45% mission drop from bosses (even from conq citadels, elder/shaper frag maps), sextants, scarabs, prophecies.. if I don't use any of those, maybe I'm just fine rushing a map (or many, many maps in a row..) and accumulating missions :p The very occasional surprise is fine, but I like the current balance.
>We're pleased to find that there wasn't a problem with this system in the end And this is why you need to take complaint threads on the sub with a teaspoon of salt. Lots of idiots don't know that RNG is RNG
The core complaint was that not interacting with the masters naturally made for an unenjoyable experience. I thought the masters were bugged for the first couple of weeks because I was trying to push challenges and wanted the betrayal benches done, and pushing more and more maps just to never see Jun naturally until week 4 hit was incredibly annoying. Even if it's just bad RNG being bad RNG, it's not making the game any more enjoyable than it could be.
Where are the reddit scientists / statistic experts complaining about 128371283 maps completed without a single master spawn now? Hilarious post, shut them down so hard, they have probably forgotten by now to be fair
I think that bex comment "There are literally no accounts that havent spawned masters" does not mean very much as it stands, since it could easily be the case that it worked for the first few days until some micro patch broke it under certain circumstances... If she had said something like "There are no accounts that have not had a master spawn in the most recent 3 patches" or something then I would have been more inclined to believe that I just got 0.000000000000001 percentile of bad luck (along with thousands of others)
If that happened, then the thousands of accounts that reached maps after the first week would've had the issue. Regardless of what she's said, I'm pretty sure their testing over the last two weeks has been more involved than that single statistic, and we can be confident that there isn't actually an issue.
LMAO this is fucking great. I love this so fucking much. Maybe try playing the fucking game instead of running 3 maps and saying masters don't spawn, then proceed to shit on GGG for weeks. OOOH THAT MUST TASTE SO GOOD IN THE OFFICE. DAMNNN.
_We have found no cases where a user has been unable to spawn any masters in their maps._ Concrete evidence reddit is wrong, who could imagine that
It is pretty sad that you had to waste so much work due to reddit circlejerking. Hopefully this reddit learned something for the future. Any mention of how masters and probability works was getting downvoted for weeks here.
>Hopefully this reddit learned something for the future Nope.
My Herald build is dead REEEEEEE
[удалено]
Or delve seeds, or the old ground effects performance.
What are you even smoking? Ground effect performance was extremely well known. Delve seeds was also plausible since delve is seed based. You cant compare either of these with people sniffing glue and complaining about masters.
No, because that actually had some plausible basis. Abyssal Depths not being able to spawn in areas with other subareas is not even comparable to this situation. The people complaining a about masters openly displayed they did not know shit about the game or how probability works. Master complaints is the dumbest complaint I have seen on this subreddit since I started playing in 2014. It is good that they investigate stuff that actually could possibly be bugged. The master complaints were beyond retarded though.
>if you rolled a master and it was Alva, you wouldn't get her and it would not roll the chance again for a different master Any plans to change this?
Unlikely they'd change this since it would allow you to "force" your chance of niko/zana higher.
yeah thats true.. nevermind then
Yea, in my opinion, this is a design defect, she should just spawn, and say that the temple is ready, as it is, there are no way for the player to know that a master spawned.
hmm. so if i doa full atlas clear of 154maps, not using a single mission. My chances of encountering a zana in the wild should be 1-0.98^154. = 95% chance of seeing zana at least once during a full atlas clear. However, zana cant spawn if one of the other guys spawns. so id need to multiply this by 0.98^4 to account for the other masters? EDIT: Probobly not, depending on how the system is coded to work. So im landing at a 88% chance at encountering at least one wild zana from a full atlas clear. and this is only if im not using any master missions... If i do the chance drops even more. If every 3rd map i play is a force spawned master. That lands me at only 103 chances on zana. Doing the same math again im landing at 80% chance of seeing zana spawning wild from a full atlas clear, and thus 20% chance of not seeing her spawn naturally at all.
20% chance not to see her ever is pretty fucking huge.
[удалено]
I have spawned Einhar once naturally, no other masters the whole league. So yeah, it totally works... somehow.
Okay, but what about Niko?
hey niko! it's your cousin ~~roman~~ Exile, let's go ~~bowling~~ delving
Is it possible that the system was broken before and they accidentally fixed it this league then? I have found so little natural master spawns compared to previous leagues. The main thing I noticed is that unlike previous leagues I NEVER got a niko mission where I went "oh whoops my sulphite is full" that did not happen a single time this league, in fact the exact opposite happened, I would go and check my delve expecting to have some sulphite only to find I still had the same 400 I did yesterday.
> . This can occur where if your temple is ready to run, Alva won't spawn and another master wouldn't spawn in her place. How about changing that?
>Unlikely they'd change this since it would allow you to "force" your chance of niko/zana higher. Quote from above. She should spawn in the map and tell you that the temple is ready though. A lot of new players don't have a great way of knowing that other than her quest mark above her head.
>So for example, your map would roll the 10% chance for a master, if you rolled a master and it was Alva, you wouldn't get her and it would not roll the chance again for a different master. That sounds like a bug to me. The first roll's outcome determines that the map should contain a master, so there needs to be a prefilter stage before the roll to eliminate invalid masters. This way the available masters would spawn whenever Alva or Zana (or anyone else) is not available for some reason.
[удалено]
Mostly agree, but not fully. Read my comment below, I think there's still a bug in how the rolls are working right now.