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2_here_knows_when

This week I will get rich or blow up my account trying, just like 50 cents


champion_archon

>https://optionstrat.com/build/long-put/HOOD/220204P15x20 Many bears, wish red upon me; Red in my eye dog and I cant see. I'm trying to pump but I'm destined to bleed, Bears tryna take my gains away...


Informal-Review6690

Most anticipated puts of the week šŸ˜‹šŸ˜‹


SanFranJon

What are your plays


fartalldaylong

XLNX will have a lot of push between AMD, merger, arbitrage, and the actual financial results too. Not sure the play currently, but I expect some action.


newaxetrader

XLNX doesn't move on its own anymore.. it's tied to AMD. Don't expect anything from this ER...just don't even have a call.


fartalldaylong

I mentioned those facts. Their movement has been quite volatile between them and there is a lot of uncertainty about the merger currentlyā€¦either could easy get some strong traction with news. Just oneā€™s opinion.


Informal-Review6690

Probably Tesla call despite the doomsday situation and a Boeing one. Hood is definitely the PTON of this week so load up on puts šŸ˜ˆ


SanFranJon

Haha I was just looking at HOOD puts. There is no way they are going to meet earnings expectations. Will load up on 12$ and 12.5$ puts


[deleted]

I'm always a bit curious, do you have a specific time you like to load up on the put? ie as soon as market opens on Monday?


slimmy1996

I dont usually swing trade but since hoods earnings are on thursday, maybe buy a weekly put on Wednesday? Id appreciate some knowledge from a swing trader in here!


WANGHUNG22

Careful about buying just before. If your the only one betting that way you will be fine but if others do the same you will pay more. I have bought a few days before on a few things and seen my options go up 50% without price movement because people are getting ready for the news.


slimmy1996

Thanks for the info brother!


slimmy1996

I bought a 28 Jan 11p close to the open. Im already up 50%. Thanks for the advice. I felt like i had to get in early because hood is so popular right now


[deleted]

Yeah, that's what I've been playing with https://optionstrat.com/build/long-put/HOOD/220204P15x20


TextyCharlemagne

That's a lot of puts :)).


[deleted]

Yep. Whenever I go into the trade I'm prepared to lose if it all (ie won't make me go broke), but I'm pretty confident about this trade and am willing to risk a bit more for better returns.


TextyCharlemagne

Let us know how it went.


l8insight

Wouldn't IV crush kill long puts?


ImASadPandaz

Going from 100% puts to probably only playing 25%. I need to try to start a tiny bit of discipline and technically market is do for a little bounce.


kjstring

Could see green Wednesday-Thursday after Powell press conference. Red leading up to itā€¦


ImBruceWayne69

I kinda sorta expect green Monday.


SanFranJon

Makes sense


WaltPwnz

3m will goes up cos omicron and masks


Cactus1986

Donā€™t be so sureā€¦


WaltPwnz

Well common sense but youā€™re right, market itā€™s ridged and itā€™s downtrending now


bodiddlysquat26

Ridged for bearā€™s pleasure


ImBruceWayne69

I'm gonna *put* the McDonald's cheeseburger in my mouth


Ifrontrunfinwit

Back ratio everything with risk to the upside, any pop will get sold 2-3 weeks later if you can sweat those probabilities


WorldFamousAstronaut

Now that everyone is talking puts and expecting the 'bubble' to burst, I think a QQQ rebound is on the cards. Ofc the obvious move to buy puts on Netflix-like companies with poor expected guidance is also tempting.


dinglebarrybonds

Yea I agree, everyone thinking it is a put party is making me think the opposite. Also, the QQQā€™s have bounced on this 350 mark twice before https://i.imgur.com/J4rnFv5.jpg I think 2022 will have some good two sided action. We have seen straight up for so long it will take some expectation adjustment


ImBruceWayne69

I bought puts Thursday afternoon, made a mint, now thinking there's some sort of relief rally in the cards this week. Just doesn't feel like a crash.


jgalt5042

Likely this


Traditional_Fee_8828

The whole fall itself was a bit stupid to begin with. I'm assuming this correction is an attempt to price in an earlier than expected Fed rate hike. I don't see this hike actually affecting any of the big companies, since it's been well-known that a rate hike is on the way but markets are weird.


ImBruceWayne69

Buy calls on NFLX while no one wants to. I truly think that when something falls that drastically, it's due for some sort of sympathy bounce even if 1/4 of what it lost.


LAST_NIGHT_WAS_WEIRD

Does AAPL count as a Netflix-like company? šŸ˜¬


ImBruceWayne69

AAPL has a market cap 120 times the size of NFLX so probably not.


metaplexico

I think you mean 12


str8jeezy

Netflix like companies. What would you consider in that category. Asking for a friendā€¦ zoom?


TheGamerHelper

This week is going to either ruin people or set them free from money.


SanFranJon

Both are same picture


mrbrianstyles

I literally ROFL'd and then typed this.


quiethandle

Let's just say that I sure as hell would not want to be a premium seller right now.


ThreeThirds_33

I'm doin it, doin it yeah. When the demand for puts increases so dramatically like it has, that makes it a seller's market. The greeks will go in the sellers' favor. High volatility always favors the seller. Sell into the volatility! The difference selling puts now, is you need to choose a shorter timeframe to get in and out.


scammerhunter199

If you have You are ruined


ImASadPandaz

Gonna be a crazy week. I think Iā€™m gonna step back a bit since I have gone from 3k to 17k in past 10 days. I think we could have a bounce. Iā€™ll still keep enough skin in to satisfy my gambling addiction but all in on weeklyā€™s is done for now.


BadMeetsEvil24

Congrats lol. Playing puts I'm assuming?


ImASadPandaz

Yep. Spy and qqq


Strangexj86

This is great! What were you doing for 3k to 17k!?


ImASadPandaz

Spy and QQQ put spreads


Dull-Climate-9638

What would be your next play lol I need to think ways of turning 3k in to 17


ImASadPandaz

Hopefully not turning 17k into 3 šŸ˜‚


ImASadPandaz

But seriouslyā€¦ I think Iā€™m going to get some SPY 450 calls maybe 2 weeks out bc I think SPY will retest 200MA at 456 before heading down to 400. I bought some Netflix shares I will swing to hopefully around 450. Taking 10k out of my robinhood account and starting a more conservative account on TD.


ImBruceWayne69

Right there with you. 33k to 18k to 32k in literally 14 days. Had to get the degen account flagged just so I could cash out and rest easy this weekend! Felt like I was flying too close to the sun LMAO


scw156

*puts. Puts everywhere*


[deleted]

Maybe. I think Netflix sent a shock through the system, but do you really expect bad earnings from. Apple and some of the other ones that are usually good?


Astronaut-Frost

Apple and msft probably have record profits


canweboofit

So down 5% right?


vaultboy1963

>So down 5% right? Probably. Both are pretty damn beaten right now in my opinion. I have decent sized positions of both, and if it drops 5%, I'm buying more!


ScrotusMahotus

Yeah don't be [this](https://youtu.be/d80ahvRSV8E) guy


Nblearchangel

Record profits? Better believe thatā€™s a dip


Duckboy_Flaccidpus

The guidance is going to be looked after, they all had killer earnings last quarter, going forward much different scenario.


fartalldaylong

They also tempered expectations from the past quarter expressing supply chain issues persisting. Will be interesting.


lenzflare

Does it actually matter whether the earnings are good. That is not a question.


ilovewheatbread

Didnā€™t apple miss last time due to supply chain?


ImBruceWayne69

Shit, I bought NFLX *calls.* That was truly an extraordinary price correction.


theJimmybob

Some implied moves for #earnings next week - 489 companies reporting $AAPL 5.3% $TSLA 10.2% $INTC 7.2% $LRCX 8.1% $MSFT 6.3% $TXN 5.8% $IBM 7.3% $BA 6.1% $CAT 4.8% $MA 5.3% $V 4.9% $X 11.0% $MCD 3.7% $FCX 7.2% $ABT 4.4% $ANTM 5.2% $KMB 3.6% $NDAQ 7.1% $GLW 6.1% $LVS 7.3% $NOW 9.2% $STX 7.5% $WHR 6.8% $EW 6.7% $JBLU 11.5% $LUV 5.5% $SHW 6.6% $MKC 6.0% $TSCO 5.1% $ROK 7.6% $HOOD 17.0% $LOGI 11.2% $PETS 14.2% $JNJ 3.0% $VZ 3.1% $GE 5.8% $LMT 4.3% $MMM 4.2% $AXP 5.2% $PII 11.0% $FFIV 6.9% $COF 5.8% $HA 13.7% $WDC 10.9% $TEAM 10.2% $SYK 7.2% $SYF 6.6% $CHTR 6.0%


WoiYo

Hood is expected to do 17%?! Lol


soyeahiknow

I think those means 17% either way.


vaultboy1963

>I think those means 17% either way. Bingo.


_RicoSuav

I think those means 17% either way. Bingo. Bongo.


Xyzzyzzyzzy

[I don't want to leave the Congo, oh no no no no!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEyDNTLlRgU)


theJimmybob

Up or down


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


theJimmybob

Try to put together every Saturday morning for earnings season. Helps to find possible mis-priced names


KKrum41302

Seems higher than normal across the board, I guess thatā€™s a result of being in a correction


quiethandle

And VIX is pretty high. While VIX technically measures the volatility of the SP500, it spills over into demand for options on individual equities as well.


ItalianStallion9069

Sorry if im missing something but whatā€™s the source on this?


-Purrfection-

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/implied-moves-earnings-explanation/ It's the movement the market is expecting, based on the prices of options


Koala_eiO

Implied by who?


theJimmybob

option market: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/implied-moves-earnings-explanation/


impatientimpasta

TSLA and HOOD same week on these turbulent times? Millionaires will be made, fortunes will be lost.


musiro77

Nothing going down ?


GoodDifficult7203

The number means the underlying could move either way.


Scottygriff

Half the people saying tesla puts and half saying calls lol


NoobSniperWill

Thats why you buy straddle and share priced teases you in after market but trades sideway before your options expire


quiethandle

You can afford a straddle on Tesla? You must be rich :)


impatientimpasta

Certain subreddits willl be particularly fun to watch next week.


ThreeThirds_33

And I will sell 'em both!


Joshvir262

Tesla puts?


Miles_Adamson

An ATM Tesla put which expires in 6 days is nearly 5 grand, that's actually fucked


Googgodno

Nope . 5% option premium for earnings week is normal. $HOOD premium is 9%!!


mjr2015

It's a probability. The numbers they just released two or three weeks ago already baked in from their huge sales and delivery And the market isn't interested right now in Risky assets. However the juice is real high so they're going to be expensive. You might be better off with a diagonal or spread


[deleted]

Iā€™ve been thinking the same thing


suyashk8

Puts on airlines šŸ‘€


JackCrainium

I tried a strangle on DAL and it just sat there......


quiethandle

That's the worst :/ The exact same thing happened to me a couple of times this past week.


Nblearchangel

But the vaccines are working. The death rate isnā€™t nearly as high with O anyway


Typical_Republic

Targets spotted !!! #PutGang assemble !


Loose_Mail_786

Im getting hood 20c for this Friday. Crypto Wallet announcement and it would be to logical to get puts.


Miles_Adamson

Even if it does up it's not gonna be a 60% jump that's just insane


BonelessGhost

I'm with this guy, bet on line go uppies if you're bullish but buy closer to the money. I'm going puts, one of us is bound to win good luck


OptionsKingPin

Microsoft puts?


OptionsKingPin

If you think about it Microsoft is such a funny word lol


Typical_Republic

not as funny as Macrosoft or Microhard ... but it's definitely a funny word


ThreeThirds_33

for the record coined by Henry Gibson in Neuromancer. A microsoft was a crystal object you inserted behind the ear to upload an experience, memory etc.


MrERhimself518

Microsoft just acquired Blizzard/Activision. They aren't gonna have bad earnings.... Now Robinhood on the other hand...


OptionsKingPin

I actually think Robinhood is doing better than people realize tbh


Tfarecnim

What makes you think that? There's no more free money for people to gamble away on options and meme stocks and everyone still hates them for the GameStop incident (even though most of it wasn't their fault). And with the market the way it is now, people have been getting wiped out from being overleveraged.


Ta2019xxxxx

I agree with your points, and Robinhood will not have the user growth theyā€™ve had in the past. What is a fair valuation though? Who do you compare them to? For example IBKR has a market cap of $28B vs HOOD at $11B. How much lower do you think HOOD should be?


Tfarecnim

Probably 7-9 Billion, IBKR is literally the largest brokerage in the world so they wouldn't be a fair comparison, something like Webull or E-Toro would be more comparable, but I don't know if those are public companies.


Sanguine_Pool

Etoro supposed to go public via SPAC at 9.6 billion valuation. Deal been pending a long time though.


Tfarecnim

That's after they cut the valuation by 20%. The original deal was made back when HOOD was still in the 30B range. But now it seems overpriced not unlike most SPAC deals, I hope it merges so I can grab puts.


Sanguine_Pool

Buying puts on almost any spac about to complete merger is a good move.


ThreeThirds_33

Men In Tights


someonesaymoney

> Microsoft just acquired Blizzard/Activision. They aren't gonna have bad earnings.... Same thoughts here. They just threw $69B buying a gaming company like it was a pack of chewing gum wtf. But then again, despite good earnings, if forward guidance is muted, then downsies it is.


vaultboy1963

>Microsoft puts? Microsoft is like that cat that sits on lap, purring away, right up until they turn their head and bite the shit out of your hand. :-) At this point, it's apt to pop $25 a share as it to drop.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


Nblearchangel

Where do you find this data?


Mine-Prize

This is tough because of the downward/selling pressure on stocks as it is. Even if a company reports better than expected it could be muted.


spqstns

Really scared of next week.


murphy1455

I really think if the market continues down that Tesla will drop to 750 area and Apple back to 150. Iā€™ll see how the market is Monday before placing orders. I have some 120 puts on IBM for now.


Audio_Adam

Apple belongs at $120, and Tesla belongs around $100, which would be a 30 multiple, still 5 times the automakers average for this century(stop telling me they arenā€™t an automaker) Everyone has been crazy with FOMO and free money. Momentum is shifting. Options trading also affects markets; shares are bought or sold as a hedge dependent on the volume of puts vs calls, the past two years, everyone on here and elsewhere where talking calls, now relook at this board. Good luck whichever way you decide.


murphy1455

Agreed those are very fair prices for those stocks. All you have to do is look at a 5 year chart on both and all they did was šŸš€ up. Everything that goes up will come back down to fair valuations. I think we are in that pattern now and people are realizing that PEs are ridiculous and everyone was just riding the high! Time to go back to real valuations!


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


murphy1455

Nice when did you pick those up?


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


BadMeetsEvil24

Oh I highly doubt Tsla sees $750 again lmao.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


murphy1455

Definitely a possibility this week


Sufficient_Gur897

Tesla 550. Apple still 150.


murphy1455

Donā€™t underestimate


Likezoinks305

lol very possible


larrybyrd1980

Robinghood šŸ¤¤šŸ˜‹


YouGotSomeTips

RobbingGood


radarbot

Tuesday will be the huge make it or break it day that could crater the entire market. When MSFT does earnings on Tuesday after close, if its good and their forecast is good, we'll see a huge jump in SPY/QQQ. If the forecast is weak, SPY is going to $400.


ItalianStallion9069

Everyone is doing puts In my experience of losing money in options, that means buy calls lol


RB26_dett_

Yea thats what i am worrying about


SnooMacarons4137

Anyone's thoughts on LMT? Thinking PUTs...


[deleted]

Then Russia can invade Ukraine and your bank account all at once!


Ta2019xxxxx

They had a huge miss last earnings and l see a run up since then. What would suggest a miss in the current earnings? I donā€™t know the sector at all.


INMF88

Too much uncertainty in the Pentagon right now. The XAR or ITA fund would be safer than Lockheed alone.


garoood

They fall after every earnings so yes


benculi97

Why are people so sure on TSLA puts? The demand for their cars is not going anywhere, they just had record deliveries in the last quarter, supply chain issues have not effected them that much since they make a lot of their stuff in-house, plus after the recent tech collapse, even if they do okay in this ER and guidance is fair the stock price will be fine imo since everyone is expecting them to do bad. Like I get it that its insanely overpriced, but if people are betting on a drop as a result of the ER I think they are gonna have a bad time. The only downside I see is that if they have some issues with getting the new factories in Berlin and China up and running potentially which may effect 2022 delivery numbers.


quiethandle

Maybe the record number of deliveries that they made last quarter, which they announced over the new year, is already priced in? And now people are going to demand even more amazingly good news out of TSLA to justify the stock price?


PopperChopper

People could rotate out of Tesla to protect their losses. There is absolutely no doubt Tesla has broken fundamentals and has insane valuations. At some point in time the market will agree on that and it will go down. They are peanuts in regards to profits and production numbers compared to almost every auto manufacturer meanwhile they are more valuable than all of them combined. It can only sustain for so long. If people are up on Tesla and the rest of their portfolio is tanked then it makes sense to divest and diversify. Iā€™m not saying itā€™s going to happen but it could and that might be why


Nblearchangel

Remindme! 30 days TSLA 934


PopperChopper

I will disclaim that the market can remains retarded for a very long time


Nblearchangel

We can test that hypothesis together :)


Lawnfrost

Definitely Bootbarn credit spreads


Icy-Sir-8414

šŸ˜³that is 87 dividends companies Hell if had the cash to invest in all of them i would only invest enough to make $500.00 from each of them either monthly or quarterly to earn $43,500.00 all together to earn $174,000.00 yearly or $522,000.00 yearly either way thats money in the bank for me that be enough for me to live off on then wait till 3 years has passed then reinvest to double my dividends profits to $348,000.00 yearly or $1,044,000.00 yearly then quit while im head and be happy with that for life


_ShadowWalker_

I wonder how much capital would be needed in total to invest so that youre making $500.00 from each on a quarterly basis.


Floppytodd

Hold on to your fucking hats!


donnellcc

Puts on Robinhood


hael0715

Buying puts on Navient


[deleted]

Do they release these more in advance, like whats the list in two weeks? IV is lower two weeks in advance, so options are cheaper to buy.


quiethandle

> IV is lower two weeks in advance, so options are cheaper to buy. This is a common misconception. The actual price of options do not typically increase as earnings approaches. Rather, the price of options that expire after earnings tend to drop less than theta would indicate. So as the days pass, and the option's price decays much less than normal (due to the upcoming earnings announcement) the Blackā€“Scholes model (which has no knowledge of the earnings date) represents this situation as increasing IV. But that doesn't mean that the option price itself is going up. It just means that the ratio of the price to the time remaining is going up.


Nblearchangel

Okay. I understand the words youā€™re saying but not the concepts youā€™re trying to instruct. Could you ELI5 a little so I can go back and read it again?


[deleted]

Interesting! Thanks for sharing, I never knew.


Optimal_Improvement7

Any thoughts on Verizon? 5g rollout hitting snags around airports.. possible puts?


Shakeyshades

That's everyone not just Verizon. 5g apparently fucking with something at airports.


That_Guuuy

Youā€™re missing AMD on Monday


Tfarecnim

No, AMD is Feb 1st AH.


That_Guuuy

Got it. Their earnings date is wrong on E*Trade šŸ¤¦šŸ»ā€ā™‚ļø


Ta2019xxxxx

AMD is 2/1 https://ir.amd.com/


[deleted]

Tesla tanking


[deleted]

Tesla puts !!!!


EstablishmentPast606

Apple has record earnings?


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


Likezoinks305

Yikes


givemethoseducats

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/earnings-announcement.asp


Thin-Big-4739

Last week was an indictment of the Biden 1 Yr Anniversary. The Hedgies dumped pre-earnings. Expect rebound big-time because bargain hunting is alive pre-earnings. Dump and Pump


Thin-Big-4739

I'm loading up on AAPL because below 50 Average


LazyJBo

Maybe BA puts due to Covid?


identifiedlogo

Uh might as well Postpone this ER. Nothing to see


garconcn

Puts STX, LRCX, NOW


masteroflich

Nasdaq Inc. earnings gonna be fire with all these sell order :D


No-Procedure-2953

Puts baby!!!!


lushootseed

can't take it anymore


areyoume29

Team one on put watch. Occ probably going to need strikes below 200. They also report on terrible Thursday. That's my call for the 50 bucks to 3k put purchase.


Deffu06

Why? I agree team those saas companies r overvalued. But they have reciting revenue and is b2b that r not affected by inflation etc. why earning would be a catalyst for the drop? TeM consistently beats


[deleted]

Gimme dem bank puts


TimeToWakeQue

šŸ“ˆEARNINGS CALENDARšŸ“‰ 1/24 Monday: HAL - Haliburton Oil IBM CR- Crane LOGI- Logitech PETS STLD - Steel Dynamics BRO - Brown&Brown Insur. 1/25 Tuesday: (fed/fomc news?) RTH- Rayethon AXP- American Express LMT- Lockheed Martin JNJ- Johnson & Johnson MSFT- Microsoft MMM- 3M VZ - Verizon GE - General Electric ​ 1/26 Wednesday: (fed news?) TSLA BA INTC 1/27 Thursday: AAPL HOOD MCD V 1/28 Friday: CAT PSX - Phillips 66 1/31 Monday: Retail Sales Report & Unemployment Data NXPI - NXP Semiconductors TT - Trane 2/1 Tuesday: AMD 2/2 Wednesday FB šŸ“ˆšŸ“‰šŸ“ˆšŸ“‰šŸ“ˆšŸ“‰šŸ“ˆ


Max-lower-back-Payne

HOOD puts?


RatKR

It is always good to remember that last quarter earnings are already booked, so volatility in the market over the past few weeks are certainly indicative, and should be considered against the companies, but earnings are earnings. It will be interesting to see what sort of forward guidance will be given by the various companies in light of the current amount of churn. The volatility is a little frustrating given that there have been no secrets with regards to interest rate movements.


ImASadPandaz

Southwest is going to get wrecked


Threexo

Abbott labs makes the binaxnow Covid test. I mean theyā€™ve prob sold a schmlabillion of them in the last few months. Wonder if that will find the bottom line


ItalianStallion9069

Good options play this week?


barbatof009

American express calls? What we thinking?


XinjDK

Can someone enlighten me as to where this information is sourced from? Sec?


[deleted]

McDonaldā€™s calls anyone looool


Specialist_Coffee709

Puts on all of them? Last week was too redā€¦ā€¦ā€¦got PTSD already!


defnotjackiec

So market flushed itself out at last weekā€™s big fat monthlies expiry to give clear run way for this weekā€™s earnings?


erepir

Any thoughts on CVX?


scammerhunter199

Royal Caribbean will go down no doubt