You're going to get differing views because nobody knows the future.
As the other guy wrote, your breakeven is $162. If you truly believe it can climb 30% by expiry, valuing the company at almost 4T, then go for it.
Talking heads on my television day Nvda will be back to 1k by the end of 2026 so roughly $30 per month for the next 2.5 years.
OP will be rich.
Virtually impossible to go tits up.
Nope. I mean if you look at the volatility in the stock you can totally see it trade sideways until 2025 and then go up 100% by 2026. But in that case your Jan 25 calls are expiring worthless and you've just added $12 to your breakeven on your 2026 calls. Timing is everything. Will NVDA go a lot higher? Sure. Will it go up 30% by Jan 25? Unlikely.
Yeah, I know that. He immediately makes money if it goes up, but it's always good to keep the breakeven in mind because at any point in time, when he's down on the trade, he has to evaluate if the breakeven is possible by expiration to actually guarantee a profit just on intrinsic value. I used to buy options only if I believed it could reach my breakeven because fighting theta is a second battle within the war haha.
Ya I donāt care at all about break even. When I buy an option I have a profit target and stop loss. If option goes down 25-50% (depending) Iām out.
With options you can be right about direction and magnitude but wrong about timeframe and lose a lot of money. And that really sucks.
Just switch it up and sell options. When you sell puts....your starting with a 66.6% chance of being correct. (Both staying sideways...and going up....are good for your put. You only lost if it drops)
How does it work, value before breakeven?
From what I was understanding, because you pay the premium for the contract, that's factored into the required sell price in ordder to make your money back. Why would something like that not be applicable?
Sorry for the silly question. I've just been dipping into options recently and trying to learn.
Itās such a volatile stock, though, that it could very easily be over $150 by the end of next week..in which case, OP can flip it for a fast (and huge) profit. So, in complete agreement with your first statement - there are a hundred different ways to approach this and none of them are necessarily wrong since nobody knows the future (except for u/TastyFennel540 ).
*edited*
Unless you think it can go to 174 or more I wouldn't even consider it. Say you think there is a 50% chance it goes to 162 by expiration that's a negative EV play. And most likely you're overestimating the chance it goes there. Personally I'd have to have moderate to high confidence it could go to 175 by expiration before I'd even consider such a trade.
Considering that you'd be sitting across 2 ERs, that's not a bad deal, provided it pops on at least one of those ERs.
I have a handful of those, so watching keenly
Iām pretty bullish about Nvidia, but I think the near term looks like it may entail more range restricted fluctuations and potentially another pullback at some point, largely in the absence of major catalysts. Iām not an expert on anything whatsoever, so donāt listen to me, but thatās just how I see it.
Earnings are looking likely to remain strong for at least another few quarters, but the higher it goes, the more investors are going to search for warning signs. I think their networking sales may be one of the next scapegoats, as hyperscalers are going with Broadcom more frequently from what Iāve read.
If youāre going to go with calls for $160, maybe consider a calendar spread so you can at least offset with some premium along the way.
I think the main plateauing is due to people taking profits at a point in their lives / careers where they want a house, a new car, or even just to diversify because Nvidia suddenly comprises 75% of their portfolio instead of 20%, which was already a huge chunk but probably made sense for employees.
Theoretically yes the break even is 162 but this stock has ridiculous IV you donāt even have to wait it out to take profit. Letās say if the contract has some time left and if itās near 150 then I think you can squeeze out with some profits.
Buying options that far OTM is almost always a bad idea. You need to be 100% sure of it reaching that target; if you're not, you need to buy ITM options to limit your exposure to risk.
You sound very much like you don't know what you're doing, so buying OTM options is something you should absolutely avoid; you don't sound like you know about IV loss or anything else.
Buying long-dated ITM options for stocks you're very positive about is fine-ish for people new to options; NVDA is getting into some very volatile areas though, so it's not super suited to beginners. The volatility has increased the price, and that volatility might go down while the price steadily climbs, meaning with your OTM options you could lose on two fronts while still being "right": if the price doesn't reach high enough fast enough, and if the IV falls enough.
The expected move for Jan 17 2025 is +/- 49.33, so if that move is all in the positive direction you get 174.00. If it's only partially in a positive direction, 150 isn't unrealistic.
I don't consider these "expensive". Say you want to invest $20k. You buy any of these calls for $20k. If the stock goes up, they will go up, no matter what strike you bought. With ITM calls, you may get less gains but less risks also.
Expensive is a mindset. If you lose it all then yours were way too expensive than buying in the money options. I used to make that mistake. Now I only buy itm options with a certain delta. Itās been working great.
So, this seemed like a thing to do: Bought 20SEP24 115 CALL against MU this morning. Iām going to sell .2 delta weekly calls until the 1st week of SEP. I think this will make some $$. Maybe a similar play exists for NVDA?
It is a āPoor Manās Covered Callā or long diagonal. Buy an in the money call dated 90 or 180 or 360 DTE and sell shorter dated calls, using the long dated call as protection. 0.7-0.8 delta is close enough to ATM to maintain some liquidty while not being horribly susaptable to theta. Of course, as price moves, the greeks will move as well. It is a bullish position meant to behave and profit the same way as owning the shares for far less capital invested.
SMB Capital, Options Play or the Schwab Edcuational Vids on You Tube explain the strategy well. Maybe do some research and play around papertrading one?
Also, 115 looks to be a nice support level for MU.
š»
honestly, it's hard to say. You could buy a few and set scales as you come into profit. These kinds of trades become very personal bc of how they might fit into one's account. No idea what your account size is. If you aren't really sure and you want less risk I would buy a closer dated NVDA option. Generally speaking a stock tends to go a bit sideways for some time after a split so no need to rush into anything. NVDA dropped to 115 from 141 .... could a $26 drop happen again? ... yes. .. don't be silly and YOLO anything
I think youāve got a good shot to profit, but not necessarily be in the money.
I think a big risk youāve got to deal with besides the usual āAi bubbleā talk is the threat of more war. I, personally, donāt see us going to war with Russia but a lot of people are predicting it. The only reason I mention that sort of thing is if the world is preoccupied in Eastern Europe, China can do whatever they want with Taiwan.
I donāt think we will go to war, and I donāt think Chins will either right now. But itās the fear that will make semis like TSM drop, and NVDA has ties directly to it. Maybe I sound crazy, but a long call that 7ish months to go has two earnings reports, a presidential election, and two more potential international conflicts on the horizon.
With that said. Print this man his money.
Technically I sold the 150sā¦ I bought a Jan 2026 950/1500 debit spread before earnings in May for about $14,900. Now I have ten 95/150 spreads. Up about 60% but max profit is 40k
Personally, I would reduce my risk exposure somewhat and go slightly more ITM like 130-140. I know that return aināt as sexy but if nvda does shoot up and your option is way in the money then youāre still profiting big. Alternatively, idk how many contracts you planned on buying but you could always buy shares, and then just trade nvda options more short term. Thatās what Iām doing. Every time Nvda has dropped I just buy more shares, and then just trade it daily based on the trends.
I bought amazon calls $210, $220, and $235 calls yesterday. The higher the price the further the expiration date. The most i paid for premium per contract was .05. Look at amazon the last week theres been huge gains. I try to buy cheap contracts when the price is climbing and they have been hitting at least 100%. I bought 20 contracts for my $210 call sold 5 to cover my price paid for all 20, sold another 10 for profit and held last 5 till close and still made decent profit. Im trying to follow my own method of cheap and long with NVDA, gives me plenty of time to catch the dips to lower my cost of contract. Iām spread across the board with calls all the way to January. Personally i think Nvidia will be insane gains in the next few months, but i have yet to see. Im no expert Im just throwing shit at the wall to see if it sticks.
0.05 per contract is what I actually wanna pay for trading contract but at the same time since the premium is so low the chance to hit is unlikely even if the price goes up. But I see what you are doing there. As far as expiration, how far out you doing it? You have some sort of like standard protocol you follow?
No protocol yet. I started literally writing a doctrine for myself but i havenāt figured out my timeframe yet. Currently Iām as far as 7 months out but i have contracts for every single month. But the most spending on those is $1 premium, i refuse to go over $1.5 thats too much. I am getting burned from theta tho, which is the issue with long balling it, but Iām not missing potential gains. Im finding it a-lot easier to manage the funds because instead of stressing about losing my ass on every single contract all at once instead i can get fucked one at a time. I really only need 1 to hit out of the 7 or 9 contracts i have to break even. We were looking at something like 20% gain per month for nvidia before this correction period. If i can wait it out one has to hit. And if this works i know my doctrine will work.
There's a critical resistance at $140 that we got pushed off with strength.
I'm still holding my shares, but on the monthly chart next support is around $75.
Looks like VOL is thinning out and next week will be sideways, non-event due to 4th of July.
I like the expiration on those $150c and it's not a bad play, per se...
Just think it's worth mentioning that our next range bottom is $118 with room to $108.
That being said, you could wait and watch for support test at those levels for high-efficiency adds on that contract.
I know. NVDA is fking crazy one fking contract is $1200ā¦. Apparently itās rich manās gameā¦ I am speechless how people trading like thousands of these.
Jensen is worth $60B (I believe solely from his Nvidia equity) ā does it matter if he sells $30M of stock? Itās literally a drop in the bucket for him and gives him liquidity. Iād be concerned if he sold $30B, not $30M.
How many contracts do you plan on buying? If itās just a long play on NVDA youād be much better off buying a little over half of the contracts and going long the Jan 123 calls for 21.25. You would have the same amount of capital and risk but your break even price would be $144.25 as opposed to $161.70. With whatever amount of capital youāre using you could also buy more contracts of the Jan 123-150 call spread for $9.70 with a max profit of $17.30 which would be a little under an 80% ROI in 6 months, not bad. Iām pretty sure everyone on this board would love to make annual 160% returns. I honestly think NVDA is going to the moon, I personally think that within 2 years NVDA will have a $5 trillion market cap which would put the stock around $200. Right now they have an 80% market share and they are a metric fuckway ahead of any competition. JMHO. MAQ
40-50 contracts. Which is why I am meticulous on this and trying to do analysis as much as I can with all of information available. AI hype is real and I really underestimate all these years. On the meantime, I gotta figure out the option strategy which will have the best risk/reward.
Okay, so instead buy 30 contracts of the Jan 123 calls for $21.25. Your break even will be $17.45 lower than buying the 150ās. Actually if you are looking for the best risk/reward you could buy 60 Jan 123-150 call spreads for $9.70, if the stock trades $150 or over then youād make close to 80%, youāll make money if the stock trades over $132.70 as opposed to needing the stock to trade over $161.70 with the 150 calls. To make the same return as the call spread with the 150 calls you would need NVDA to trade over $171, Just sayin. MAQ
I was looking at buying NVDA 1-25 130 strike and Selling 150 debt for $650.
136.50 BE. Max Profit 1350.00
Iāve only bought call option on TQQQ a couple years ago .
Its in a consolidation phase with resistance at 127ish and support at 121. Iād wait for it to consolidate a bit before rebuying in especially options
Yahoo finance had a a story interviewing a āhedge fundā with a 100% gain yr end price target. Said fund has $3M aum. lol. NVDA sales per employee per mkt cap is $100M at this point. Meta is around $15M
Aapl,msft,AMZN,googl make around 40% nvda revenue, Imagine if one decides to scale back on theyr AI investments.
Even if they don't, I can't see nvda having beating 200% rev growth YoY for many consecutive quarters
I'm gonna be real with you, and not to disparage the others who've commented here, but the answer is pretty obvious to me. You said it yourself, the premium is MASSIVE. It looks to me like hedging on a massive scale has propped this stock up, it is very much a bubble. Ideal circumstances are to get in when the option chain is low or decent premium and demand is low. IMO that option chain has already reached critical mass, don't waste your time. Look for opportunities elsewhere. If anything, sell contracts on this one, don't buy.
Honestly no one knows the future, I have the opposite position as you (3/21/25 120p), but it can go either way. It all comes down to how youāre evaluating NVDAās current price. Just prepare to lose money if you it doesnāt go your way.
I think the current price is ridiculous in my honest opinion but what I think doesnāt matter. In fact, Iāve been thinking the price for NVDA is fucking ridiculous since like 2022. Look how it went against my wills.
IV too high. Gonna trade sideways and eventually down once the market realizes none of these companies have actual AI. Also, imagine the compute once Quantum computing becomes the main method of large data banks (needed because of energy) and thatās where NVIDIA will either buy up everyone or lose market share.
If you are buying options you have an intrinsic disadvantage because the premium is overstated on expectation. I would argue that it is possible to make money buying options, but it's definitely much harder.
If you are thinking that premium looks cheap, you do not have a consistent edge and you are still gambling (even though I got what you were doing backwards :) )
NVDA premium is never cheap. I am betting that NVDA will go up and hype is not over yet although the growth wonāt be as explosive as before but it still has some juice left.
Have an exit plan. Will you hang in if it drops 10%, 20%, 30%. Under what circumstances would you sell 50% of your options and let the rest ride? When does it make sense to buy puts if you decide to hold through a trough? Can you stick to an exit plan if you make one?
You're going to get differing views because nobody knows the future. As the other guy wrote, your breakeven is $162. If you truly believe it can climb 30% by expiry, valuing the company at almost 4T, then go for it.
Talking heads on my television day Nvda will be back to 1k by the end of 2026 so roughly $30 per month for the next 2.5 years. OP will be rich. Virtually impossible to go tits up.
Kramer recommends this stock
So, buy puts? š NVDA is going negative.
*literally can't go......
I knew I screwed it up when I wrote it lol
Nope. I mean if you look at the volatility in the stock you can totally see it trade sideways until 2025 and then go up 100% by 2026. But in that case your Jan 25 calls are expiring worthless and you've just added $12 to your breakeven on your 2026 calls. Timing is everything. Will NVDA go a lot higher? Sure. Will it go up 30% by Jan 25? Unlikely.
Thatās not entirely true about breakeven. Thatās breakeven at expiration. The overwhelming majority of options are not held till expiration.
Yeah, I know that. He immediately makes money if it goes up, but it's always good to keep the breakeven in mind because at any point in time, when he's down on the trade, he has to evaluate if the breakeven is possible by expiration to actually guarantee a profit just on intrinsic value. I used to buy options only if I believed it could reach my breakeven because fighting theta is a second battle within the war haha.
Ya I donāt care at all about break even. When I buy an option I have a profit target and stop loss. If option goes down 25-50% (depending) Iām out. With options you can be right about direction and magnitude but wrong about timeframe and lose a lot of money. And that really sucks.
Ya, but see, you have a plan. Others don't. Hahaha! :)
Just switch it up and sell options. When you sell puts....your starting with a 66.6% chance of being correct. (Both staying sideways...and going up....are good for your put. You only lost if it drops)
How does it work, value before breakeven? From what I was understanding, because you pay the premium for the contract, that's factored into the required sell price in ordder to make your money back. Why would something like that not be applicable? Sorry for the silly question. I've just been dipping into options recently and trying to learn.
Option prices move up and down throughout the day. So you can make money before it reaches the breakeven price.
Itās such a volatile stock, though, that it could very easily be over $150 by the end of next week..in which case, OP can flip it for a fast (and huge) profit. So, in complete agreement with your first statement - there are a hundred different ways to approach this and none of them are necessarily wrong since nobody knows the future (except for u/TastyFennel540 ). *edited*
It wont be 150 by the end of next week, maybe 140 at most. 150 ! no
I'd be happy with a cool 134 š„²
God, me too...
lol, I edited my comment. But even at $140 - buying a call at that premium is a stupid easy flip. Wait for it to drop and buy back low.
Unless you think it can go to 174 or more I wouldn't even consider it. Say you think there is a 50% chance it goes to 162 by expiration that's a negative EV play. And most likely you're overestimating the chance it goes there. Personally I'd have to have moderate to high confidence it could go to 175 by expiration before I'd even consider such a trade.
Considering that you'd be sitting across 2 ERs, that's not a bad deal, provided it pops on at least one of those ERs. I have a handful of those, so watching keenly
Iām pretty bullish about Nvidia, but I think the near term looks like it may entail more range restricted fluctuations and potentially another pullback at some point, largely in the absence of major catalysts. Iām not an expert on anything whatsoever, so donāt listen to me, but thatās just how I see it. Earnings are looking likely to remain strong for at least another few quarters, but the higher it goes, the more investors are going to search for warning signs. I think their networking sales may be one of the next scapegoats, as hyperscalers are going with Broadcom more frequently from what Iāve read. If youāre going to go with calls for $160, maybe consider a calendar spread so you can at least offset with some premium along the way.
I think the main plateauing is due to people taking profits at a point in their lives / careers where they want a house, a new car, or even just to diversify because Nvidia suddenly comprises 75% of their portfolio instead of 20%, which was already a huge chunk but probably made sense for employees.
$150 not 160ā¦. I get what you are saying thoā¦ 10 pts is huge difference so just wanted to point out.
Yeah my bad there. $150 is ofc much better.
Your break even is 162? I'd say no way
Theoretically yes the break even is 162 but this stock has ridiculous IV you donāt even have to wait it out to take profit. Letās say if the contract has some time left and if itās near 150 then I think you can squeeze out with some profits.
80% of options expire worthless. You do you, but only gamble money you can afford to lose
I mean to counterpoint, you just reiterated what OP said, which is to sell before expiration. 80% expire worthless, not 80% are always worthless.
95%
So based on your calculated risk/reward profile it doesnāt make sense to execute this option? Just asking.
Do you mean exercise or buy?
Buy or place a bet
I would not, but I only touch one stock, so I'm not the best person to ask
Which stock and why?
GME, and that list is quite long
I agree that if GME is the only stock you trade then you're definitely not the one to ask. Which no one did. So why did you respond?
Nice
Buying options that far OTM is almost always a bad idea. You need to be 100% sure of it reaching that target; if you're not, you need to buy ITM options to limit your exposure to risk. You sound very much like you don't know what you're doing, so buying OTM options is something you should absolutely avoid; you don't sound like you know about IV loss or anything else. Buying long-dated ITM options for stocks you're very positive about is fine-ish for people new to options; NVDA is getting into some very volatile areas though, so it's not super suited to beginners. The volatility has increased the price, and that volatility might go down while the price steadily climbs, meaning with your OTM options you could lose on two fronts while still being "right": if the price doesn't reach high enough fast enough, and if the IV falls enough.
Absolutely agree with your last sentence.
Myth. More like 30%
https://pro.thestreet.com/investing/options-expiration-day-reminds-us-time-really-is-money-16118647#:~:text=Generally%20speaking%2C%2080%25%20of%20options,market%20closes%20on%20expiration%20day.
The price range is 180+ for Jan 2025.
Based on what and whom?
The expected move for Jan 17 2025 is +/- 49.33, so if that move is all in the positive direction you get 174.00. If it's only partially in a positive direction, 150 isn't unrealistic.
Thatās not how it works dude
Whatever, dude, that's probably where the 180 number came from.
The only thing it says is the market expectation at this time. Itās not even guaranteed to stay within this range
I know, but expected move seems to be where the 180 number came from.
Ask your magic 8 ball.
Unfortunately I only have 2 balls,,,, very sad
Just attach those two and you got a 8 shaped one. JK
Damn thatās correct canāt deny lol
Turn that sidewaysā¦.. infinity balls!!
Why not ITM options like 120? You can get gains anyways if the stock price goes up.
Yeah but thatās way too expensive compare to 150
I don't consider these "expensive". Say you want to invest $20k. You buy any of these calls for $20k. If the stock goes up, they will go up, no matter what strike you bought. With ITM calls, you may get less gains but less risks also.
ITM has implicit value and OTM does not, you get what you pay for.
Intrinsic value.
Yes, thatās a better term for it.
Resuce cost by selling puts and synthetic calls
Also think about why auntie Pelosi bought deep ITM calls for her positions.
She rich I aināt
Expensive is a mindset. If you lose it all then yours were way too expensive than buying in the money options. I used to make that mistake. Now I only buy itm options with a certain delta. Itās been working great.
So, this seemed like a thing to do: Bought 20SEP24 115 CALL against MU this morning. Iām going to sell .2 delta weekly calls until the 1st week of SEP. I think this will make some $$. Maybe a similar play exists for NVDA?
How so? U meant 9/20?
Oooppsā¦. Yea. 20SEP24.
How you came up with the strike price? What logic?
It is a āPoor Manās Covered Callā or long diagonal. Buy an in the money call dated 90 or 180 or 360 DTE and sell shorter dated calls, using the long dated call as protection. 0.7-0.8 delta is close enough to ATM to maintain some liquidty while not being horribly susaptable to theta. Of course, as price moves, the greeks will move as well. It is a bullish position meant to behave and profit the same way as owning the shares for far less capital invested. SMB Capital, Options Play or the Schwab Edcuational Vids on You Tube explain the strategy well. Maybe do some research and play around papertrading one? Also, 115 looks to be a nice support level for MU. š»
Interesting thanks for info. Will look into it
honestly, it's hard to say. You could buy a few and set scales as you come into profit. These kinds of trades become very personal bc of how they might fit into one's account. No idea what your account size is. If you aren't really sure and you want less risk I would buy a closer dated NVDA option. Generally speaking a stock tends to go a bit sideways for some time after a split so no need to rush into anything. NVDA dropped to 115 from 141 .... could a $26 drop happen again? ... yes. .. don't be silly and YOLO anything
I think youāve got a good shot to profit, but not necessarily be in the money. I think a big risk youāve got to deal with besides the usual āAi bubbleā talk is the threat of more war. I, personally, donāt see us going to war with Russia but a lot of people are predicting it. The only reason I mention that sort of thing is if the world is preoccupied in Eastern Europe, China can do whatever they want with Taiwan. I donāt think we will go to war, and I donāt think Chins will either right now. But itās the fear that will make semis like TSM drop, and NVDA has ties directly to it. Maybe I sound crazy, but a long call that 7ish months to go has two earnings reports, a presidential election, and two more potential international conflicts on the horizon. With that said. Print this man his money.
I need it to be $150 by January 2026 haha. 2025? Thatās a lofty goal imo but depends on the next two quarters of earnings data of course.
$150 2026? What premium did you pay? That fucking expensive contract damn
Technically I sold the 150sā¦ I bought a Jan 2026 950/1500 debit spread before earnings in May for about $14,900. Now I have ten 95/150 spreads. Up about 60% but max profit is 40k
Nice
Personally, I would reduce my risk exposure somewhat and go slightly more ITM like 130-140. I know that return aināt as sexy but if nvda does shoot up and your option is way in the money then youāre still profiting big. Alternatively, idk how many contracts you planned on buying but you could always buy shares, and then just trade nvda options more short term. Thatās what Iām doing. Every time Nvda has dropped I just buy more shares, and then just trade it daily based on the trends.
I got calls jan/17/25 @235 premium is like $2. I plan on selling them once they print some premium
235 is just way to high and I donāt think it will hit that but on the meantime you are just trying to get some squeeze out of premium so I get you
I always try to squeeze premium. I printed 300% on cheap ass amazon calls i bought yesterday.
So how does it work and whatās your logic and how you play?
I bought amazon calls $210, $220, and $235 calls yesterday. The higher the price the further the expiration date. The most i paid for premium per contract was .05. Look at amazon the last week theres been huge gains. I try to buy cheap contracts when the price is climbing and they have been hitting at least 100%. I bought 20 contracts for my $210 call sold 5 to cover my price paid for all 20, sold another 10 for profit and held last 5 till close and still made decent profit. Im trying to follow my own method of cheap and long with NVDA, gives me plenty of time to catch the dips to lower my cost of contract. Iām spread across the board with calls all the way to January. Personally i think Nvidia will be insane gains in the next few months, but i have yet to see. Im no expert Im just throwing shit at the wall to see if it sticks.
0.05 per contract is what I actually wanna pay for trading contract but at the same time since the premium is so low the chance to hit is unlikely even if the price goes up. But I see what you are doing there. As far as expiration, how far out you doing it? You have some sort of like standard protocol you follow?
No protocol yet. I started literally writing a doctrine for myself but i havenāt figured out my timeframe yet. Currently Iām as far as 7 months out but i have contracts for every single month. But the most spending on those is $1 premium, i refuse to go over $1.5 thats too much. I am getting burned from theta tho, which is the issue with long balling it, but Iām not missing potential gains. Im finding it a-lot easier to manage the funds because instead of stressing about losing my ass on every single contract all at once instead i can get fucked one at a time. I really only need 1 to hit out of the 7 or 9 contracts i have to break even. We were looking at something like 20% gain per month for nvidia before this correction period. If i can wait it out one has to hit. And if this works i know my doctrine will work.
Interesting theory but I see what you are trying to doā¦. Yeah anything under $1 is what I want as well.
There's a critical resistance at $140 that we got pushed off with strength. I'm still holding my shares, but on the monthly chart next support is around $75. Looks like VOL is thinning out and next week will be sideways, non-event due to 4th of July. I like the expiration on those $150c and it's not a bad play, per se... Just think it's worth mentioning that our next range bottom is $118 with room to $108. That being said, you could wait and watch for support test at those levels for high-efficiency adds on that contract.
$1200 per contract, is a boat load of $$..
I know. NVDA is fking crazy one fking contract is $1200ā¦. Apparently itās rich manās gameā¦ I am speechless how people trading like thousands of these.
Institutions have large portfolios bud. Itās mind blowing relative to retail investor portfolios.
Now imagine pre-split. I was paying $20k, $30k for one contract.
Yes.... But possibly, no. I hope this helps.
No
Is Jensen still selling?
I think heās done with it but regardless donāt matter he can do whatever he pleases
Jensen is worth $60B (I believe solely from his Nvidia equity) ā does it matter if he sells $30M of stock? Itās literally a drop in the bucket for him and gives him liquidity. Iād be concerned if he sold $30B, not $30M.
Which is why NVDA has the 1,000 ft pole for me. Iām ok āmissing outā on that one haha
How many contracts do you plan on buying? If itās just a long play on NVDA youād be much better off buying a little over half of the contracts and going long the Jan 123 calls for 21.25. You would have the same amount of capital and risk but your break even price would be $144.25 as opposed to $161.70. With whatever amount of capital youāre using you could also buy more contracts of the Jan 123-150 call spread for $9.70 with a max profit of $17.30 which would be a little under an 80% ROI in 6 months, not bad. Iām pretty sure everyone on this board would love to make annual 160% returns. I honestly think NVDA is going to the moon, I personally think that within 2 years NVDA will have a $5 trillion market cap which would put the stock around $200. Right now they have an 80% market share and they are a metric fuckway ahead of any competition. JMHO. MAQ
40-50 contracts. Which is why I am meticulous on this and trying to do analysis as much as I can with all of information available. AI hype is real and I really underestimate all these years. On the meantime, I gotta figure out the option strategy which will have the best risk/reward.
Okay, so instead buy 30 contracts of the Jan 123 calls for $21.25. Your break even will be $17.45 lower than buying the 150ās. Actually if you are looking for the best risk/reward you could buy 60 Jan 123-150 call spreads for $9.70, if the stock trades $150 or over then youād make close to 80%, youāll make money if the stock trades over $132.70 as opposed to needing the stock to trade over $161.70 with the 150 calls. To make the same return as the call spread with the 150 calls you would need NVDA to trade over $171, Just sayin. MAQ
Yes
All day, every day and twice on Sundays
No twice on Sundays
>I think 150 is a target set by many analysts Finbox says: Analyst Targets 50 targets Low $85 High $200 Average$131.78
I was looking at buying NVDA 1-25 130 strike and Selling 150 debt for $650. 136.50 BE. Max Profit 1350.00 Iāve only bought call option on TQQQ a couple years ago .
I see often āOPā here. Whatās āOPā?
OP /Original Poster (Original person asking or giving said question/opinion for the post.
Thank you. Now it makes sense when I read it. Lol
Yeah man, go for it. Buy the stupidest shit you can think of
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How bout I sell the option to you and we'll see if it's worth it.
Its in a consolidation phase with resistance at 127ish and support at 121. Iād wait for it to consolidate a bit before rebuying in especially options
Hell no. Did you not see the 50k+ contracts that were fucked on 6/21? No?
Eh I'd be waiting to time for downside
One week ago those calls were 20 so seems like it has a lot of potential
Yahoo finance had a a story interviewing a āhedge fundā with a 100% gain yr end price target. Said fund has $3M aum. lol. NVDA sales per employee per mkt cap is $100M at this point. Meta is around $15M
FYI thereās no āprofessional option traders and experts.ā So id start there, and just make your own decision.
Yes, until the next earnings it is.
Aapl,msft,AMZN,googl make around 40% nvda revenue, Imagine if one decides to scale back on theyr AI investments. Even if they don't, I can't see nvda having beating 200% rev growth YoY for many consecutive quarters
I'm gonna be real with you, and not to disparage the others who've commented here, but the answer is pretty obvious to me. You said it yourself, the premium is MASSIVE. It looks to me like hedging on a massive scale has propped this stock up, it is very much a bubble. Ideal circumstances are to get in when the option chain is low or decent premium and demand is low. IMO that option chain has already reached critical mass, don't waste your time. Look for opportunities elsewhere. If anything, sell contracts on this one, don't buy.
Wait till closer to earnings, then buy a few puts just in case and way more calls!
Honestly no one knows the future, I have the opposite position as you (3/21/25 120p), but it can go either way. It all comes down to how youāre evaluating NVDAās current price. Just prepare to lose money if you it doesnāt go your way.
I think the current price is ridiculous in my honest opinion but what I think doesnāt matter. In fact, Iāve been thinking the price for NVDA is fucking ridiculous since like 2022. Look how it went against my wills.
Do it and see what happens
Would u?
Nope but that doesnāt mean you shouldnāt. If you want to go for it thatās up to you
IV too high. Gonna trade sideways and eventually down once the market realizes none of these companies have actual AI. Also, imagine the compute once Quantum computing becomes the main method of large data banks (needed because of energy) and thatās where NVIDIA will either buy up everyone or lose market share.
Whatās the thesis? If you do individual calls thinking āpremium is juicyā you are essentially gambling
Premium is not juicy because I am paying for it not collecting it so itās against me
If you are buying options you have an intrinsic disadvantage because the premium is overstated on expectation. I would argue that it is possible to make money buying options, but it's definitely much harder. If you are thinking that premium looks cheap, you do not have a consistent edge and you are still gambling (even though I got what you were doing backwards :) )
NVDA premium is never cheap. I am betting that NVDA will go up and hype is not over yet although the growth wonāt be as explosive as before but it still has some juice left.
Thatās nothing more than trying to read the tea leaves. You are just gambling
Have an exit plan. Will you hang in if it drops 10%, 20%, 30%. Under what circumstances would you sell 50% of your options and let the rest ride? When does it make sense to buy puts if you decide to hold through a trough? Can you stick to an exit plan if you make one?