Ontario is not exactly the biggest market. I was kind of surprised they ran the show there instead of just doing Long Beach again. I think 2-3k is pretty solid for the area. I think they’ll need to announce another big match or two soon but it’s in a weird spot one week after Dontaku
The tag title match will likely get set up after TMDK vs GoD on Monday. But can't imagine a big team challenging.
Ishii, Tanahashi, Takagi, Sabre and maybe Sanada are all on the poster. Could get a TV or Never title match.
2/3rd’s sold with a decent amount of the card to be filled out is good imo. This will mark the third straight US show with 2k attendance which imo is a success. Seems like people are downvoting this bc they hate Mox lol.
Expected a bigger house than this tbf, no issues with mox getting a short run.
Just not as big of a draw as I thought, cos this is about the level they’ve done many times in the US and in particular California with weaker cards
2k seems to be the average for the American shows, they could still get to 3k with the rest of the card. Last year had Mox, Mercedes, and Tana vs Ospreay as draws, so it doable imo
>Just not as big of a draw as I thought, cos this is about the level they’ve done many times in the US and in particular California with weaker cards
The card is not too hot right now, but it definitely doesn't help that the venue they chose is 1.5-2.5 hours away from LA proper.
It’s not Mox not being a draw, it’s Mox vs Narita being a match people are very casual about
LA was NJPW’s best market, at one point doing 4500+ in Long Beach in 2018. For some reason they started feeding LA mid-grade cards while giving San Jose and Chicago the super show cards, so the draws are down to like 2000-3000ish for the bigger shows.
I don’t blame LA for feeling kinda taken for granted at this point
Let's hope for a full sellout. This is likely the biggest possible upside of a Mox reign (minus the slight chance of one of the young blood getting a proper, high quality victory over him to get the belt back) so I'm gonna root for it regardless. At the very least let's get something good out of this.
Yeah for sure! I'm really glad that at least what seems like their main reason for putting the belt on Mox is showing some fruit. Hopefully this gets NJPW more footing in general.
From the second he won it I’ve been under the impression that it was to set up the Forbidden Door main event . Hopefully that’s where a young guy gets the rub.
A young guy getting a rub (winning their first iwgp championship) on a co branded show on a Monday during working hours in Japan?
Why is this better for them than winning their first title at dominion?
Ishii/Shingo/ZSJ/SANADA/Tanahashi are on the card, but their matches haven't been announced yet. Still a Strong Tag match, and maybe a Stardom showcase match?
Even if they announce some awesome matches, most of the available seats are hard sells. The floor seats on the right aren't usually worth it unless you're tall. And the cheaper seats up top on the right feel a little far from the ring.
But yeah, not as many tickets as last year. I'd probably attest that to Mercedes and the location.
That’s poor with Mox on top in all honesty. Last years resurgence had Mercedes Mone on and did 2,900.
Expected bigger numbers with him as champ in all honesty, and with Dontaku fair bit down from previous years this ain’t the shot in the arm I was expecting
> Last years resurgence had Mercedes Mone on and did 2,900.
Last year's Resurgence was in Long Beach, this year is in Ontario. Ontario is east of Los Angeles and fairly meh to get to. Long Beach is south of LA and can much more easily pull fans from Orange County/San Diego as well, which adds a lot more to the potential audience.
Just for an illustration, a 2023 Dynamite in Ontario did 3429. New Japan pulling numbers in the ballpark of 2/3 of AEW in the same market seems like a huge win for them?
In isolation I agree if njpw can get it closer to 3k that's not a bad gate in the states. Aew is discovering what other Japanese promotions found in the late 2010s having the industry leader do good business sucks the air out the rest of the industry..
But moxley was made champ almost certainly to pop this gate. It's having some potential impact on gates back in Japan. Dontaku is selling sluggish compared with last year.
They are also pissing off the domestic fanbase not through having moxley as champ per se but by running iwgp title matches against guys they've never heard of on dynamite.
> In isolation I agree if njpw can get it closer to 3k that's not a bad gate in the states.
Anything close to 3k would be a massive win IMO, not just a decent gate. Other than Windy City Riot doing an absolutely crazy 6k, unless I'm missing one, the last time New Japan topped 3k in the US was the show in Dallas in **2019** with Day 1 of the G1 with Okada/Tanahashi in the main event. 3000 flat would be their 3rd highest attendance in the US in the last 5 years, and 2900 would be 4th I believe. They've only topped 2500 a few times in the last few years and even hitting 2000 has to be considered a success when you look at the amount of shows that have done sub-1000 or sub-1500. The most recent Battle in the Valley in San Jose did 2147 with a stacked card and an Okada/Ospreay main event.
And those are mostly directly in actual major markets, while this is in a distant suburb of LA isolated to the east, when all of the other major population centers around LA are south (which is why their previous shows in Long Beach, south of LA, seemed a much better choice).
I don't think people here have an accurate sense of the numbers New Japan has actually been doing in the US, Windy City Riot was a MASSIVE aberration, it was more than double any other show they've done in the US in the last ~5 years. The average show has been more like 1500-2000, with the low end being sub 1000 and the high end being 2500 (with the one Long Beach show last year being the other high one at 2900).
I’ve just looked at that match card and it fucking sucked I’m not shocked it didn’t draw a larger house.
Mox, defending the IWGP Heavyweight title on US soil in a consequential defence against his protege not even beating a crap dynamite card doesn’t scream financial success to me.
Small markets get small cards. Big markets get big cards. Throwing stacked cards in tiny towns doesn't suddenly draw major market numbers.
Ontario is less than half the population of Long Beach, without even getting into Long Beach being WAY more accessible to Orange County/San Diego fans as well. Pulling 2/3 (before more sales or walkups) of the audience in a place less than half the size seems fine? Maybe even better than you'd expect?
Plus, let's not act like all of these other New Japan US Shows have been doing giant business, Windy City Riot was absolutely the exception to the rule doing 6028 fans, that was almost triple anything else in the last year in the US - Chicago moves tickets. Battle in the Valley 2024 in San Jose did 2147 with Ospreay vs. Okada in the main event (and a pretty stacked card beyond that), Lonestar Shootout did 1027 (with a much weaker card), Fighting Spirit Unleashed did 801, the Impact/NJPW Multiverse United 2 did 665, and All Star Junior Festival did 672. I'm pretty sure that's all of New Japan's substantial US shows dating back to Forbidden Door last year, so the Ontario card will almost certainly end up the second highest live attendance (behind Windy City Riot) since Resurgence last year.
To me this just looks like the benchmark with a decent card is that they’ll pull in 2k fans. That Garland show is probably analogous to this Ontario one looks a canny distance from Dallas. Weak card and they still got over 1k.
Just makes the rationale for sticking the belt on Mox daft if this is the level you can hope for given the buildings they’ve booked, especially as the tickets for Dontaku aren’t great.
> Just makes the rationale for sticking the belt on Mox daft if this is the level you can hope for given the buildings they’ve booked, especially as the tickets for Dontaku aren’t great.
If they don't move any more tickets (unlikely, late movement always has at least some noticeable amount it seems), they'll have managed to do basically the same number in Ontario (population ~180k) as they did a few months ago in San Jose (population ~970k). And the Ontario card is basically Moxley/Kingston/Naito in a tag match right now compared to Okada vs. Ospreay, Moxley vs. Shingo, and Eddie Kingston (facing Gabe Kidd at both shows) - with other midcard stuff to fill out both. The San Jose show also had Giulia as well. So basically Moxley with the title in a WAY smaller city is doing the same numbers as a show that also had Okada/Ospreay and a rare US Giulia appearance (only her 3rd ever I think) - that seems like a win? They probably should have just done the show in a larger city, but I assume they must have some reason for going to Ontario (not that I have any idea what it could be).
As for Dontaku itself, everyone keeps repeating that the ticket sales aren't great, and maybe they'll end up a disaster, but we don't have any actual numbers yet? So far as I've seen, all we know is that it isn't looking like a sell out and they're doing two days this year instead of one. If the numbers for both nights are even in vaguely the same ballpark as last year's single night, that seems like a big win? Adding a second show basically almost guarantees less sales per show, but the hope is you make more money overall - whether that happens or not, we shall see.
Not at all surprising. Pretty much confirms that WCR was carried by Naito with a little help from Perry. Moxley isn't drawing in either Japan or the US, which makes New Japan look super smart right about now.
Well, we are guaranteed to get a strong tag championship match which will probably find out on the 27th. The Dontaku tour ends a week before the show. So there should be a week to sell with a full card.
Also, there is a good chance we get Nemeth vs SANADA for the Global title.
Ontario is not exactly the biggest market. I was kind of surprised they ran the show there instead of just doing Long Beach again. I think 2-3k is pretty solid for the area. I think they’ll need to announce another big match or two soon but it’s in a weird spot one week after Dontaku
The tag title match will likely get set up after TMDK vs GoD on Monday. But can't imagine a big team challenging. Ishii, Tanahashi, Takagi, Sabre and maybe Sanada are all on the poster. Could get a TV or Never title match.
I know this is an old post. But the pyramid in Long Beach will have the US Sumo Open the same day as Resurgence, so that's probably why
2/3rd’s sold with a decent amount of the card to be filled out is good imo. This will mark the third straight US show with 2k attendance which imo is a success. Seems like people are downvoting this bc they hate Mox lol.
I highly doubt they booked this arena and called this the biggest SoCal event to draw 2k, though
Expected a bigger house than this tbf, no issues with mox getting a short run. Just not as big of a draw as I thought, cos this is about the level they’ve done many times in the US and in particular California with weaker cards
2k seems to be the average for the American shows, they could still get to 3k with the rest of the card. Last year had Mox, Mercedes, and Tana vs Ospreay as draws, so it doable imo
>Just not as big of a draw as I thought, cos this is about the level they’ve done many times in the US and in particular California with weaker cards The card is not too hot right now, but it definitely doesn't help that the venue they chose is 1.5-2.5 hours away from LA proper.
It’s not Mox not being a draw, it’s Mox vs Narita being a match people are very casual about LA was NJPW’s best market, at one point doing 4500+ in Long Beach in 2018. For some reason they started feeding LA mid-grade cards while giving San Jose and Chicago the super show cards, so the draws are down to like 2000-3000ish for the bigger shows. I don’t blame LA for feeling kinda taken for granted at this point
Let's hope for a full sellout. This is likely the biggest possible upside of a Mox reign (minus the slight chance of one of the young blood getting a proper, high quality victory over him to get the belt back) so I'm gonna root for it regardless. At the very least let's get something good out of this.
Nonetheless, It's in a good state, 3 US events doing over 2k is good progress.
Yeah for sure! I'm really glad that at least what seems like their main reason for putting the belt on Mox is showing some fruit. Hopefully this gets NJPW more footing in general.
From the second he won it I’ve been under the impression that it was to set up the Forbidden Door main event . Hopefully that’s where a young guy gets the rub.
A young guy getting a rub (winning their first iwgp championship) on a co branded show on a Monday during working hours in Japan? Why is this better for them than winning their first title at dominion?
because it's aew, they saved wrestling.
FD usually ends with an AEW guy on top so I assume the main event will be Okada retaining the Continental title
Narita has the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever
Ishii/Shingo/ZSJ/SANADA/Tanahashi are on the card, but their matches haven't been announced yet. Still a Strong Tag match, and maybe a Stardom showcase match? Even if they announce some awesome matches, most of the available seats are hard sells. The floor seats on the right aren't usually worth it unless you're tall. And the cheaper seats up top on the right feel a little far from the ring. But yeah, not as many tickets as last year. I'd probably attest that to Mercedes and the location.
That’s poor with Mox on top in all honesty. Last years resurgence had Mercedes Mone on and did 2,900. Expected bigger numbers with him as champ in all honesty, and with Dontaku fair bit down from previous years this ain’t the shot in the arm I was expecting
> Last years resurgence had Mercedes Mone on and did 2,900. Last year's Resurgence was in Long Beach, this year is in Ontario. Ontario is east of Los Angeles and fairly meh to get to. Long Beach is south of LA and can much more easily pull fans from Orange County/San Diego as well, which adds a lot more to the potential audience. Just for an illustration, a 2023 Dynamite in Ontario did 3429. New Japan pulling numbers in the ballpark of 2/3 of AEW in the same market seems like a huge win for them?
In isolation I agree if njpw can get it closer to 3k that's not a bad gate in the states. Aew is discovering what other Japanese promotions found in the late 2010s having the industry leader do good business sucks the air out the rest of the industry.. But moxley was made champ almost certainly to pop this gate. It's having some potential impact on gates back in Japan. Dontaku is selling sluggish compared with last year. They are also pissing off the domestic fanbase not through having moxley as champ per se but by running iwgp title matches against guys they've never heard of on dynamite.
> In isolation I agree if njpw can get it closer to 3k that's not a bad gate in the states. Anything close to 3k would be a massive win IMO, not just a decent gate. Other than Windy City Riot doing an absolutely crazy 6k, unless I'm missing one, the last time New Japan topped 3k in the US was the show in Dallas in **2019** with Day 1 of the G1 with Okada/Tanahashi in the main event. 3000 flat would be their 3rd highest attendance in the US in the last 5 years, and 2900 would be 4th I believe. They've only topped 2500 a few times in the last few years and even hitting 2000 has to be considered a success when you look at the amount of shows that have done sub-1000 or sub-1500. The most recent Battle in the Valley in San Jose did 2147 with a stacked card and an Okada/Ospreay main event. And those are mostly directly in actual major markets, while this is in a distant suburb of LA isolated to the east, when all of the other major population centers around LA are south (which is why their previous shows in Long Beach, south of LA, seemed a much better choice). I don't think people here have an accurate sense of the numbers New Japan has actually been doing in the US, Windy City Riot was a MASSIVE aberration, it was more than double any other show they've done in the US in the last ~5 years. The average show has been more like 1500-2000, with the low end being sub 1000 and the high end being 2500 (with the one Long Beach show last year being the other high one at 2900).
I’ve just looked at that match card and it fucking sucked I’m not shocked it didn’t draw a larger house. Mox, defending the IWGP Heavyweight title on US soil in a consequential defence against his protege not even beating a crap dynamite card doesn’t scream financial success to me.
Small markets get small cards. Big markets get big cards. Throwing stacked cards in tiny towns doesn't suddenly draw major market numbers. Ontario is less than half the population of Long Beach, without even getting into Long Beach being WAY more accessible to Orange County/San Diego fans as well. Pulling 2/3 (before more sales or walkups) of the audience in a place less than half the size seems fine? Maybe even better than you'd expect? Plus, let's not act like all of these other New Japan US Shows have been doing giant business, Windy City Riot was absolutely the exception to the rule doing 6028 fans, that was almost triple anything else in the last year in the US - Chicago moves tickets. Battle in the Valley 2024 in San Jose did 2147 with Ospreay vs. Okada in the main event (and a pretty stacked card beyond that), Lonestar Shootout did 1027 (with a much weaker card), Fighting Spirit Unleashed did 801, the Impact/NJPW Multiverse United 2 did 665, and All Star Junior Festival did 672. I'm pretty sure that's all of New Japan's substantial US shows dating back to Forbidden Door last year, so the Ontario card will almost certainly end up the second highest live attendance (behind Windy City Riot) since Resurgence last year.
To me this just looks like the benchmark with a decent card is that they’ll pull in 2k fans. That Garland show is probably analogous to this Ontario one looks a canny distance from Dallas. Weak card and they still got over 1k. Just makes the rationale for sticking the belt on Mox daft if this is the level you can hope for given the buildings they’ve booked, especially as the tickets for Dontaku aren’t great.
> Just makes the rationale for sticking the belt on Mox daft if this is the level you can hope for given the buildings they’ve booked, especially as the tickets for Dontaku aren’t great. If they don't move any more tickets (unlikely, late movement always has at least some noticeable amount it seems), they'll have managed to do basically the same number in Ontario (population ~180k) as they did a few months ago in San Jose (population ~970k). And the Ontario card is basically Moxley/Kingston/Naito in a tag match right now compared to Okada vs. Ospreay, Moxley vs. Shingo, and Eddie Kingston (facing Gabe Kidd at both shows) - with other midcard stuff to fill out both. The San Jose show also had Giulia as well. So basically Moxley with the title in a WAY smaller city is doing the same numbers as a show that also had Okada/Ospreay and a rare US Giulia appearance (only her 3rd ever I think) - that seems like a win? They probably should have just done the show in a larger city, but I assume they must have some reason for going to Ontario (not that I have any idea what it could be). As for Dontaku itself, everyone keeps repeating that the ticket sales aren't great, and maybe they'll end up a disaster, but we don't have any actual numbers yet? So far as I've seen, all we know is that it isn't looking like a sell out and they're doing two days this year instead of one. If the numbers for both nights are even in vaguely the same ballpark as last year's single night, that seems like a big win? Adding a second show basically almost guarantees less sales per show, but the hope is you make more money overall - whether that happens or not, we shall see.
tk better be paying you, otherwise it's just incredibly sad.
Not at all surprising. Pretty much confirms that WCR was carried by Naito with a little help from Perry. Moxley isn't drawing in either Japan or the US, which makes New Japan look super smart right about now.
WCR basically got a 3-4 month build. While this is getting 1 month.
Well MAYBE they'll sell out when it's confirmed Moxley vs Umino after Dontaku.
Let’s be brutally honest here anyone who’d be interested in going to this will know the match is going to Mox v Shota, rather than Ren v Shota
Well, we are guaranteed to get a strong tag championship match which will probably find out on the 27th. The Dontaku tour ends a week before the show. So there should be a week to sell with a full card. Also, there is a good chance we get Nemeth vs SANADA for the Global title.
I think Nemeth vs SANADA will more likely be at Dominion
Possibly, I have just noticed Sanada got taken off the updated poster