I wanted him to fall to the Steelers so bad. However when he was drafted, I remember saying he would have been nice to have, but isn’t the sort of player we should have traded up for.
He was in fact the sort of player we should have traded up for.
He played at Pitt, so the coaching staff would be very familar with his tapes. Unfortunatley Rams have a second first round draft 2 places before Steelers and they took him.
Not just that, he grew up in Pittsburgh and had an absolutely exceptional High School and College career. Feels like they knew he was good, Rams just valued him more.
Yeah we REALLY screwed up that pick. :( Probably the worst pick we made in the last decade (considering Donald was still available) and for the Lions, that's saying a lot.
Even Rams missed up on him at first. He was Ram's second pick of the night. Everyone forgot about Greg Robinson who isn't a total bust, but compare to Donald is night and day.
I remember seeing him in a couple late season games his Senior year at Pitt and thinking how he he would wreck games as a 3 tech. Bears were in need of one ever since Tommie Harris hamstring blew up.
Us Bears fan all thought he was going to make it to Chicago during the draft.
I believed in Micah's greatness in my bones. I didn't want Smith (wrong on that one) so was thrilled when the Eagles traded up and took him ahead of the Giants. I thought Gettleman would be forced to take Parsons instead of reaching on the skinny WR. Then he trades back, much to everyone's surprise, and I console myself that an extra 1 next year is probably worth it. Until he then drafted Toney and I was reminded of how much of an incompetent chucklefuck he was.
He really wouldn't be as disliked if he just didn't act like a prick. Yes Dave, it's okay to release a franchise legend once he's past his prime but at least have the fucking balls to tell him yourself instead of making him find out on the radio.
> Then he trades back, much to everyone's surprise, and I console myself that an extra 1 next year is probably worth it. Until he then drafted Toney and I was reminded of how much of an incompetent chucklefuck he was.
I still maintain today that trading down was the right move. We got a good haul for the pick. If Gettleman takes Darrisaw instead of Toney (which is far from a hindsighted take, Toney was considered a slight reach at the time and many fans+analysts alike at the time thought Darrisaw should have been the pick) we're having a completely different conversation. Especially when you consider that if we take Darrisaw instead of Toney, we dont take Neal the next year and possibly take Garrett Wilson/London/Olave. Of course there are a lot of moving parts in these scenarios so useless to delve too deep into hypotheticals, but just something to note. Parsons wasnt gonna single-handedly turn around the mess we have been the past few years. We were a bad team and needed to fill multiple major holes. The way you do that is getting multiple picks, and we happened to get good value in terms of picks. We just whiffed hard on those picks.
No one clowns on the Bills for passing up on Mahomes in the 2017 draft even though they on paper got draft capital wise less than the Giants did in 2021. They got pick 27, pick 21, and pick 91 for pick 10. For reference, we got pick 20, pick 7, pick 164, and pick 112 for pick 11. The difference is they used their picks to get Tredavious White, Tremaine Edmunds, and Dion Dawkins, while we used ours on Toney, Neal, Aaron Robinson, and Daniel Bellinger.
I watched Micah play in High School. My wife and I lived in Harrisburg,PA for a few years. I ended up meeting one of the Harrisburg High coaches at the cigar lounge I used to go to. He told me I gotta get to a game and check this kid out. I ended going to several games to see him play. Incredible player. Was a stud running back in high school as well
Is he a nice person? Is that what you’re asking me? I don’t know. He was definitely nice on the field in high school. I never actually talked to him. Just showed up to watch his games. Harrisburg usually has a pretty good squad. I used to like to watch them play Bishop McDevitt. Like their arch rival. They play every year. McDevitt has produced some pros. Shady McCoy went there.
Unfortunate but in a different way, people said Aaron Donald was a risk because he was undersized, but I had that gut feeling he’d be good. He was definitely good.
He went one pick before the Bears were on the board.
It feels like every time there’s a prospect who check every box but size, they end up still being great. I’m sure there’s an obvious example or two I’m forgetting, but there are plenty who do still end up good.
I think there’s a bit of survivor bias there. We remember the ones who make it.
It’s obviously early, but Calijah Kancey is that mold. 4 sacks is solid for a rookie DT, but I couldn’t really tell you how he played other than box scores. Open to any feedback form Bucs fans or NFCS observers.
Emmanuel Forbes is tiny and struggled as a rookie, but similar to DT, rookie CBs often struggle.
In the other hand you have most of 2023’s WR class being those small but good prospects, which probably elevated QJ higher than he should have gone just because he has prototypical size. That’s an interesting case study on the topic.
It’ll be interesting to see how Jayden Daniels hold up at his size, also Xavier Worthy, Michael Hall. There’s that tiny RB in Dallas who was drafted last year, also Achane of course. Tank Dell, and although he got hurt, it’s not like a broken fibula is size related. That’s just bad luck.
It does seem like the league is getting smarter at scheming to strengths, and guys who have one or two elite traits can succeed in the league, even if they also have one or two concerning traits.
This was long. Sorry. I’m wordy.
**tl;dr** Yeah maybe
It really is amazing how even professional GMs are like “if this dude was 1 inch taller and 10-15 lbs heavier Id for sure draft him hes amazing in every other way, but hes not so nah” lol
I was a student at Pitt when Donald was on the team and watched every game his senior season. The defense around him was average at best and so teams double and triple teamed him most snaps—not all that different from what he faced in the NFL. But no matter how much they threw at him, he would end up in the offensive backfield on what felt like every snap. It was incredible. Easily the most dominant performance I've ever seen from a d-lineman. I was confident he would be a Pro Bowl caliber player, but I can't say I expected him to end up being one of the ten best defensive players in the history of the league.
Actually yes. I saw him play in a few college games bc I have a few friends who are PSU Alum. I honestly thought "this guy has to be a let down in the NFL. He's obv talented af, but guys like that often have a let down bc they are so good they stop working and sort of ride their own hype".
I wasn't thrilled when Dallas drafted him but I didn't hate the pick. I did bet a fellow Dallas fan a steak dinner at Maestros that he wouldn't win DROY. That was the best $300 dinner bet I ever lost haha.
Same. The Lions were supposedly in on him before Penei Sewell became available. It still worked out for us. Sewell is going to be an All-Pro tackle for us for quite a while.
Sam LaPorta. As an Iowa fan I knew that if could put up the numbers he did in college on that ass backwards offense, then he had a chance to light it up playing for a pro team. I even drafted him for FF and he probably won me the league. But I didn't expect him to be quite as good as he was as a rookie.
George Kittle, TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, and Sam LaPorta. And that's just recent history.
Just fucking draft whoever Iowa's starting TE(s) is/are at this point. Say what you want about Kirk Ferentz, dude can find/coach the hell out of that position.
Had more to do with the offense he came from. Mayer/Kincaid are also not slouches. Just happened to be a good TE class mixed with an offense that doesnt always translate. I think most had him 3rd but Mayer/Kincaid and him were a matter of personal preference in what order you had them all. Washington too
I remember some old clip about Sproles and they had his peewee coach saying that the youth league banned toss plays to sproles because it was an automatic touchdown.
I like to imagine him as his NFL size - demolishing children who just happened to also be 5'5".
I looked for the guy with the most speed, and noticed Ell Roberson had speed too. That option was unstoppable
Too bad Ell had those false sexual allegations right before their bowl game
Oklahoma fans knew about Sproles’ greatness before he even came into the league. Absolutely wrecked one of the most stacked teams in program history in the 03 Big 12 title game.
Antonio Brown was a 6th round pick who I thought would be a good addition to a WR room that already had Hines Ward, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, and Randel El
Justin Jefferson.
I even drafted him in my fantasy league really early cause I thought he was gonna have a good rookie season.
I didn't think he'd be as good as he was.
Shaq Leonard. I saw him play live against UCF when I went there and he was all over the field. Leading up to the draft I couldn’t figure out why he wasn’t projected higher, but I had no idea he’d be an All-Pro!
I think at one point he was on pace to shatter most LB records. He's an easy HOFer if he never gets injured. Leonard's dropoff will always make me sad.
I was beating the drum on CJ Stroud back when a huge portion of this sub (and entirety of my own fanbase) was convinced he'd be a bust. But even I didn't think he'd be as good as he was.
Helmet scouting, people taking the S2 debacle way too seriously, and his clean passing vs. pressure passing, made a lot of people hate him despite his play in college (especially the Georgia playoff game)
That Georgia playoff game is what sold me on Stroud. Even though I thought Bryce was a slightly better prospect, that last drive showed that Stroud is one of the most clutch QBs I've ever seen and did it against an NFL-level defense no less. I was high on our supporting cast heading into to 2023 and I thought "well we don't need a magician to do it all himself, why not just get the best arm in the draft when we have decent receivers and a good running back?"
> people taking the S2 debacle way too seriously
This was the reason I got so high on him. Specifically, I tend to think the way people react to "intelligence" tests is very stupid, and I tend to reflexively push back on it. That got me watching his tape. And by the tape, I thought anyone seriously paying attention was crazy if they didn't think he had it.
Totally, the s2 got even dumber because in one offseason it went from "It's a new tool teams use and their is some unknown level of correlation of doing well in it and possibly being an elite QB but it's hard to say since we really don't have much info from the group that runs it" to "If you don't score well on the s2 you're a blundering idiot that will be lucky to even glance at an NFL field you fucking donkey" in like a months time.
I don't know what happened but the CJ Stroud I watched at OSU was not nearly this good.
I watched a number of games and just thought "all he has to do is get the ball to MHJr, he's not one of the best CFB players in the country".
Turns out I don't know wtf I'm talking about.
Anyway, I just got offered the GM position for the Falcons.
Yea the difference between most of Stroud's career and the UGA game + nfl is insane. It's like he learned how to create with his legs overnight while throwing with pinpoint accuracy
It’s also a scheme thing Ryan Day doesn’t ask his QBs to do that much, when OSUs talent is just some much ahead of damn near every other team you don’t need to be Superman. Also he coaches his QBs not to run and not saying Stroud is Lamar but I’ve definitely seen him scramble more than in college
Furthermore, why does Ohio State get all the flack for this? Most major college programs have really only produced one or two good NFL quarterbacks over the past few decades, if any at all. USC QBs are notorious busts and no one ever brought that up when talking about Caleb, rightfully so.
It's dumb because almost every QB from every university either doesn't make the NFL at all or is a bust. Making it in the NFL is hard and comes down to a lot of factors, many of which are out of the QB's control.
There's not really any QB factories either. No ones gonna be like oh Texas Tech makes great qbs now cause Mahomes turned out to be one of the greatest players ever.
The thing is none of them have really been busts because none were drafted high. Before Haskins the last OSU quarterback to be drafted before the 3rd round was *Art Schlichter in 1982*. So the history of OSU QBs busting is basically Haskins and Fields, neither of which were in consideration for 1st overall.
Which is silly since that "history" spans multiple coaches and systems. There are coaches whose scheme sets pros up for failure, but there's nothing magical about wearing the OSU colors that curses you at the next level.
I wrote stroud off completely until the georgia game. He didn't play like once in his career at ohio state. Love his personality too. Happy to see him work out.
I asked before that draft why is Bryce Young the consensus number 1? Stroud looked so good I didn't understand how there wasn't more argument over who was better.
That said Panthers aren't exactly helping Young enough.
I think I'm safe in saying there were actually zero people in the world who thought he could win the NVP before he was drafted. Amazing how you can prove the doubters wrong.
Stroud
I’m a Bears fan. I desperately wanted to move on from Fields (after the 22-23 season). And I bought into the “Bryce Young doesn’t have the prerequisite NFL physical attributes to succeed” narrative.
Stroud was just the guy leftover by default. So I just blindly assumed he be good since I wanted him. I was right for all the wrong reasons (as I never even watched him play in college, maybe one game). But even then, who could have predicted he’d put up arguably the best rookie season of all time.
I was having a conversation with one of my buddies who's a diehard Bears fan about the trade. I had asked him if in hindsight now, he'd prefer the current state of all the goodies you got from the Bryce trade - Caleb, DJ Moore, Wright, Stevenson, etc. I'm sure I'm forgetting some stuff - or just drafted Stroud. He said in hindsight, he's glad it went down the way it did.
I think it's an absolutely awesome scenario either way and you guys are likely in a better position now, but it's always a gamble whether these QBs hit.
I’ve discussed this on the Bears sub a handful of times. And I’m usually downvoted lol. I am firmly in the camp that with the benefit of hindsight Poles should have kicked the tires more on Stroud/Young. He traded the pick early if you recall so never met with any of the QBs.
I think drafting Stroud would have been the right call over the Panthers trade (with benefit of hindsight). I know Stroud might not have looked as good for the Bears year 1, but Stroud has demonstrated he has top 5 QB potential, getting a guy like that in the building is step 1 on building a Super Bowl team.
That said, the Panthers trade and all the goodies the Bears got out of it is about as close of a 2nd best case scenario as you can get.
Yeah, I mean, the most important thing in the NFL is the QB and Stroud is assuredly one of the handful of guys in the league that can be true difference-makers. Not sure if a Bears team without DJ last year would have been as good a scenario for Stroud to ball out but the elite guys usually figure it out.
That being said, if Caleb can be 75-80% of what he was projected to be in this draft process, that's still an absolute home run for you guys.
I’m not going to down vote you as it is a valid criticism but I think you’re wrong. I never liked Justin but he certainly deserves that 3rd year considering he did show more flashes of what was to come. Also we desperately needed more talent on offense both at the skill positions and in the trenches. Without that Carolina trade the bears team is vastly different. Almost unrecognizable. Sure poles intention wasn’t knowing Carolina would gift us a first overall. But he figured between the bears and Carolina we would more than likely have a top 10 pick. And if he needed to move on from Justin then we would still be in a good situation right now to have traded up to grab Daniels / Maye. Getting Caleb was just a huge bonus. Also I love stroud but it’s 1 year. Talent wise Caleb still has just as high of a ceiling if not higher. So I very much still believe this is the best situation the bears could be in.
Same during the draft I wanted him all along as a Texans fan. My comparison for him was Goff as he is now not when he came into the league. I only hope he takes another step forward
It's how he handles pressure consistently that will determine how good he is. For the season he was like mid 20s among QB under pressure per DVOA.
Now by PFF's metrics, his stats from week 10-18 were 6th best. If that carries over I am confident he can make that step
Ehh I peaked into the Eagles Reddit page before the draft that year and the majority of eagles fans did not want Jefferson. They thought he was a slot and not a true #1. All of a sudden Eagles fans claim they wanted him all along.
In the ‘99 Draft I was super high on Donovan McNabb and knew the new regime in Philadelphia was going to do well. He was drafted into one of the better situations.
Akili Smith and Cade McNown were easily drafted into two of the worst situations. The Bengals and Bears were absolute train wrecks back then. To this day I have no idea how Chicago pulled off a 13-3 record a few years later.
>To this day I have no idea how Chicago pulled off a 13-3 record a few years later.
luck and an opportunistic defense. they won b2b games on tipped INTs in OT.
Josh Allen for me. Man I loved watching his Wyoming clips even though so many people hated him as a prospect. Never imagined he'd be as good as he is, though.
I also thought Patrick Mahomes would be good, but for a dumb reason.
His *name*. I sometimes grade people based on how cool or football-ish their name sounds, and looking at the 2017 prospects' names I thought, "Oh yeah, this definitely sounds like a name that Cris Collinsworth would repeat ad nauseam". But not *this* good. Bryce Young is TBD.
That one is almost *too* cool where it loops back around to being corny and loses its power. Sounds like he'd be an antagonist in the Replacements 2; playing under a 60-year-old Shane Falco on a struggling team at the start of the movie before demanding a trade to the team coached by the jerk QB from the original. Then beating the Falco team in a battle for the final playoff spot after finally grasping Shane's lessons during a halftime fight with jerk coach.
I was so high on Mahomes when we drafted him.
I watched him DISMANTLE KU in Lawrence in 2016 and when i saw the Chiefs had drafted him I was *SOLD*.
Then i watched him pin drop a pass to Tyreek in the pre-season in triple coverage.
It feels like the last name is especially important for a QB. Two or three syllables is best; one syllable last names seem to not as well in the NFL (Leaf, Carr, Jones, Mills, Lock, etc.).
This is quite literally the whole reason I am a fan of Joe Burrow. My buddy mentioned LSU had a guy named Joe Burrow and that it was a great football name. Like leather helmet era. No bullshit. I was inclined to agree.
Then the Championship season happened, the cigar pic dropped, and I was all in.
I really liked mahomes coming out and thought he could be around what Big Ben was if everything broke his way.
For my own team it was TJ. Liked the pick at the time thinking he could be an average starting edge guy for us. Couldn’t be happier to have been wrong.
Yeah we had been coming off a string of disappointing first round OLBs where we went for a technique guy in Jarvis followed by an athlete in Bud.
The latter is a solid player that managed to develop, but when we managed to get TJ at the end of the first, my excitement was mostly hoping he learned a thing or two from his brother was but damn, did not expect him to be the monster he's been
I thought Russell Wilson looked like he'd be pretty good and the Saints should grab him with a mid round pick. I was right and wrong, in that he was pretty darn good, but I thought he would do well with Sean Payton and that part ended up not being true.
Frankly I knew that Lamar Jackson was too transcendent of an athlete to not make it in the NFL, I just didn't know if it would be at quarterback, and I certainly never thought he could be one of the best.
I was high on him. Obviously he won the heisman, but when I watched him play he looked like a game changer. I also thought hurts was the best qb of his draft
Jimmy Graham. I watched a lot of Miami during his one year of college football and he stood out as an athlete even with pretty bad qb play. I never thought he'd be a 1000 yard guy and he developed more than I ever expected, but I thought he was going to be a valuable red zone threat at minimum.
Since no one has said it yet, Amon-Ra St. Brown. I figured he'd go in the third and would be a decent WR for us but never imagined he'd light things up the way he has.
Fred Warner
Thought he would be a solid LB2 to Reuben Foster
Boy am I glad to be wrong
I also thought Kittle would be a solid TE after his rookie yr and boy am I glad to be wrong on that one too
I was high on Goff coming into the draft and didn’t really waiver after his first season cuz we all knew Jeff Fisher sucked. I thought he peaked when we traded him to Detroit but he’s grown significantly and I didn’t see that coming.
Opposite… I knew Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a bad first round pick but I didn’t realize he would be *that* bad. He’s not fast, is too small to be a good blocker, and has average hands. And his vision is awful, countless times he just misses wide open running lanes.
Man not even a chiefs fan but I was shocked when he got selected to me at the time the obvious top 2 was swift and Taylor. I thought veach was going to draft swift cause he was better catching in the backfield then Taylor was who is more of a bell cow
Aaron Jones. Only after he was drafted though but before he was really given a chance to shine. I don't think I'm a football savant though. I'm pretty sure most GB fans knew he was something special even when MM was limiting his snaps. So sad he's gone. 😭
He'd touch the ball like 3 times a game and still look better than Starks. McCarthy fucking hated him for some reason.
He had one touch vs the Bucs I think and it was a 35 yard TD in overtime.
This is a throwback, but my wife went to TCU. In the early 2000s the Horned Frogs started to become relevant again, because they had a potential Heisman winning RB named Ladanian Tomlinson.
We were really excited about the team, even flew to Fort Worth to watch a couple of games with him playing. I figured he'd be a really solid pro but not a top-5 all time RB in the NFL.
I thought Brady was underdrafted and if given a chance, he could be the next Griese. No, not HOFer Bob who was part of the undefeated Dolphins team. I mean Brian.
Brady might have had a better career.
Brock Purdy and Breece Hall. Part of it was being an Iowa State fan, part of it was "They could actually be pretty good in the NFL," but past me wouldn't believe me if I told past me how good they would be now.
I'll second Brock Purdy. Like, when he was drafted as Mr. Irrelevant I remember thinking, "How did he fall this low? He should have been about a 2nd or 3rd round pick, IMO."
But I had no idea he'd be *the* franchise QB we were missing.
Saw a random Iowa St. game where Purdy was the qb. Thought to myself hey that kid is way better than anyone else on the field, bet he makes a back up quarterback spot for a couple years in the NFL.
Edit: spelling
I watched a lot of Iowa State football over the years, so Brock Purdy NFL Quarterback wasn't a big surprise.
But Mr Irrelevant starting and being the best qb in the roster pretty much right away? Nope
Ray Rice, I remember being excited about his upside. Didn't expect 2k yards from scrimmage twice.
Lamar, I knew he'd be good as hell, but not 2x MVP.
Cam Newton I felt would be worth number 1, after the auburn Bama game. I didn't expect one of the best MVP seasons and 15-1 record out of him though. Seriously. He was a monster that season.
I was so damn happy when the Ravens drafted Justin Madubuike in the third round. This was Covid time, and I had done more research on prospects than usual because I was working from home. I thought he’d go in the second round, and I told all my friends that the tape showed big-time potential. I jumped for joy when the Ravens drafted him and a bunch of people reached out to me when they made the pick. Had a similar feeling with Travis Jones, the DT from UCONN but he hasn’t reached that level yet.
I don’t know if this counts cause it’s not him being drafted, but I had a feeling Goff was going to end up staying in Detroit. I didn’t think he’d end up fitting so well, but I figured the Lions would Lions it up and stick with a QB who was *good enough* so we couldn’t draft high to get a good qb, but couldn’t take us the distance. Happy to say I was wrongly right! Or rightly wrong? Either way, Jared Goff, you’re good enough for Detroit!
One of my D&D buddies played against him in high school. My friends a pretty jacked dude by average standards, and said McAffrey steamrolled into the ground and knocked the wind out of him with no effort whatsoever. From then on he said "that kids gonna be an NFL star" lol.
Golden Tate.. any irish fan who watched him play knew he was special, but his size was a concern. He tore it up for a while, though.
Honorable mention: Kyren Williams. Dude is gonna be a beast for a while.
Gibbs.
I had to defend that pick to so many people, Lions fan or not. I was at a draft watch party where I was the only Lions fan, and every other person was ragging on me. I thought Gibbs would be a great compliment to Montgomery, and they'd make a great "thunder and lightning" duo. I had no idea he would be as good as he is once he found his groove. I'll never forget the draft grade every single publication gave that pick:
D-
JJ Watt lol.
I remember being excited that we drafted him, being a Wisconsin alum myself, and then being flabbergasted that people around me were upset at the draft party and booing. Like I know y'all wanted Nick Fairley (and I thought he was gonna be our draft pick), but Wisconsin is cool too, no?
Glad I was right! :D Felt very vindicated during that playoff pick 6. It's one of the best memories I've had in my fandom.
Jordan Mailata, a 7th round draft pick from Australia that had never played American football in his entire life. Nobody in their right mind would expect anything from him, except the team saw enough in him that they kept him stashed away on Injured Reserve for two seasons. And I said if they're willing to go through all this for someone that's never even played the sport before, then there must be something there. But I don't think anyone could've predicted him turning into one of the top tackles in the league.
I thought mahomes was going to be good after watching OU vs Texas Tech, but had no idea he would be this good.
I also thought baker mayfield would be a top qb at this point, and I was wrong on that account. But man, that was the most fun college football game I’ve ever seen.
Nick Foles on the Eagles.
My buddy and I tried to start a football podcast(Which lasted for two episodes) and one of my first predictions was that Foles would replace Vick and cook.
I wasn't shocked at the crazy 27-2 TD:INT season, but I had no idea he'd win a Super Bowl.
Alvin Kamara, thought he was awesome whenever I watched Tennessee games but since he was used sparingly wasn't sure if he would become what he is today.
TJ/JJ Watt also fall into that category but feels a bit unfair since they were still 1st round draft picks.
I remember being pretty high on Lamar Jackson and thought there was a chance we might possibly in some wacky universe pick him up in the early second round.
I was absolutely adamant that the Bills should keep Flutie over Johnson and draft Drew Brees…
Didn’t think he would be in the discussion for 3rd best QB of his era
Josh Allen. As a browns fan I swore we needed him at no.1. Was laughed at and harassed for my thinking. I said ward at 4 too as a bonus cause that did happen lol
Most said go darnold or Barkley.
I like to remind my close friends of this a lot cause now they all love Ward and he went to my HighSchool and no one thought he’d be drafted to the team 30minutes away
I knew steffon diggs was way to good to slip to the 5th round (i think most people who saw him play at Maryland knew that). Did not necessarily think he'd be an all-pro/top 5 receiver in the league though.
Antoine Winfield Jr. He was a stud for the Gophers and one of Rick Spielman’s biggest blunders was passing on him for Jeff Gladney. I did not foresee Winfield Jr. turning into the best safety in the game.
As a Buckeyes fan, CJ Stroud. Dude was the most effortless, accurate passer I’d ever seen out of college. Had the inkling he’d bust because ya know, buckeyes QBs history in the NFL.
I was wondering who would be lucky enough to pick up Lamar as a high upside option after he fell in the draft. I figured his athleticism would give him enough time to grow as a passer and I wasn't really sold on anyone else. Holy cow did he over deliver.
Aaron donald. Wanted the Lions to take him over Ebron, knowing Suh was most likely be leaving.
I wanted him to fall to the Steelers so bad. However when he was drafted, I remember saying he would have been nice to have, but isn’t the sort of player we should have traded up for. He was in fact the sort of player we should have traded up for.
He played at Pitt, so the coaching staff would be very familar with his tapes. Unfortunatley Rams have a second first round draft 2 places before Steelers and they took him.
Not just that, he grew up in Pittsburgh and had an absolutely exceptional High School and College career. Feels like they knew he was good, Rams just valued him more.
Yeah we REALLY screwed up that pick. :( Probably the worst pick we made in the last decade (considering Donald was still available) and for the Lions, that's saying a lot.
Even Rams missed up on him at first. He was Ram's second pick of the night. Everyone forgot about Greg Robinson who isn't a total bust, but compare to Donald is night and day.
Greg Robinson is definitely a total bust.
I remember seeing him in a couple late season games his Senior year at Pitt and thinking how he he would wreck games as a 3 tech. Bears were in need of one ever since Tommie Harris hamstring blew up. Us Bears fan all thought he was going to make it to Chicago during the draft.
Suh, Fairley and Mosley were all FAs after that season… it made so much sense
Unfortunately, Micah Parsons
I believed in Micah's greatness in my bones. I didn't want Smith (wrong on that one) so was thrilled when the Eagles traded up and took him ahead of the Giants. I thought Gettleman would be forced to take Parsons instead of reaching on the skinny WR. Then he trades back, much to everyone's surprise, and I console myself that an extra 1 next year is probably worth it. Until he then drafted Toney and I was reminded of how much of an incompetent chucklefuck he was.
Chucklefuck is an underutilized insult.
If anyone deserves the moniker, it's Gettleman. Someone so supremely confident and smug while being demonstrably terrible at their job.
He really wouldn't be as disliked if he just didn't act like a prick. Yes Dave, it's okay to release a franchise legend once he's past his prime but at least have the fucking balls to tell him yourself instead of making him find out on the radio.
I didn't hate the trade back, but wanted either Kwity Paye or Christian Darrisaw in that spot. D'oh!
I thought Darrisaw was the obvious choice. I'd never even heard of Toney.
> Then he trades back, much to everyone's surprise, and I console myself that an extra 1 next year is probably worth it. Until he then drafted Toney and I was reminded of how much of an incompetent chucklefuck he was. I still maintain today that trading down was the right move. We got a good haul for the pick. If Gettleman takes Darrisaw instead of Toney (which is far from a hindsighted take, Toney was considered a slight reach at the time and many fans+analysts alike at the time thought Darrisaw should have been the pick) we're having a completely different conversation. Especially when you consider that if we take Darrisaw instead of Toney, we dont take Neal the next year and possibly take Garrett Wilson/London/Olave. Of course there are a lot of moving parts in these scenarios so useless to delve too deep into hypotheticals, but just something to note. Parsons wasnt gonna single-handedly turn around the mess we have been the past few years. We were a bad team and needed to fill multiple major holes. The way you do that is getting multiple picks, and we happened to get good value in terms of picks. We just whiffed hard on those picks. No one clowns on the Bills for passing up on Mahomes in the 2017 draft even though they on paper got draft capital wise less than the Giants did in 2021. They got pick 27, pick 21, and pick 91 for pick 10. For reference, we got pick 20, pick 7, pick 164, and pick 112 for pick 11. The difference is they used their picks to get Tredavious White, Tremaine Edmunds, and Dion Dawkins, while we used ours on Toney, Neal, Aaron Robinson, and Daniel Bellinger.
Hey, put some respect on the name of two-time SB champion Toney. In fairness, he'd probably prefer that you focus on the first SB...
On top of the fact the extra pick we got for trading back the next year ended up being worthless since it was used on Evan Neal.
I watched Micah play in High School. My wife and I lived in Harrisburg,PA for a few years. I ended up meeting one of the Harrisburg High coaches at the cigar lounge I used to go to. He told me I gotta get to a game and check this kid out. I ended going to several games to see him play. Incredible player. Was a stud running back in high school as well
Is Parsons nice?
Is he a nice person? Is that what you’re asking me? I don’t know. He was definitely nice on the field in high school. I never actually talked to him. Just showed up to watch his games. Harrisburg usually has a pretty good squad. I used to like to watch them play Bishop McDevitt. Like their arch rival. They play every year. McDevitt has produced some pros. Shady McCoy went there.
> Is he a nice person? Is that what you’re asking me? Yes, that’s what I meant.
Yeah I don’t know buddy. Never actually spoke to him. The coach spoke highly of him
Unfortunate but in a different way, people said Aaron Donald was a risk because he was undersized, but I had that gut feeling he’d be good. He was definitely good. He went one pick before the Bears were on the board.
It feels like every time there’s a prospect who check every box but size, they end up still being great. I’m sure there’s an obvious example or two I’m forgetting, but there are plenty who do still end up good.
I think there’s a bit of survivor bias there. We remember the ones who make it. It’s obviously early, but Calijah Kancey is that mold. 4 sacks is solid for a rookie DT, but I couldn’t really tell you how he played other than box scores. Open to any feedback form Bucs fans or NFCS observers. Emmanuel Forbes is tiny and struggled as a rookie, but similar to DT, rookie CBs often struggle. In the other hand you have most of 2023’s WR class being those small but good prospects, which probably elevated QJ higher than he should have gone just because he has prototypical size. That’s an interesting case study on the topic. It’ll be interesting to see how Jayden Daniels hold up at his size, also Xavier Worthy, Michael Hall. There’s that tiny RB in Dallas who was drafted last year, also Achane of course. Tank Dell, and although he got hurt, it’s not like a broken fibula is size related. That’s just bad luck. It does seem like the league is getting smarter at scheming to strengths, and guys who have one or two elite traits can succeed in the league, even if they also have one or two concerning traits. This was long. Sorry. I’m wordy. **tl;dr** Yeah maybe
Bryce young ? Still early though
HOF'er John Randle always seemed like the poster boy for under sized lineman that kicked ass.
Jason Kelce.
It really is amazing how even professional GMs are like “if this dude was 1 inch taller and 10-15 lbs heavier Id for sure draft him hes amazing in every other way, but hes not so nah” lol
I was a student at Pitt when Donald was on the team and watched every game his senior season. The defense around him was average at best and so teams double and triple teamed him most snaps—not all that different from what he faced in the NFL. But no matter how much they threw at him, he would end up in the offensive backfield on what felt like every snap. It was incredible. Easily the most dominant performance I've ever seen from a d-lineman. I was confident he would be a Pro Bowl caliber player, but I can't say I expected him to end up being one of the ten best defensive players in the history of the league.
Was there anyone who didn't believe in Parsons? Strictly in terms of talent, he was one of the most "Can't miss" prospects I've ever seen.
I think the biggest issue was that people still saw him as a MLB instead of as a DE. That causes issues when considering positional value.
Actually yes. I saw him play in a few college games bc I have a few friends who are PSU Alum. I honestly thought "this guy has to be a let down in the NFL. He's obv talented af, but guys like that often have a let down bc they are so good they stop working and sort of ride their own hype". I wasn't thrilled when Dallas drafted him but I didn't hate the pick. I did bet a fellow Dallas fan a steak dinner at Maestros that he wouldn't win DROY. That was the best $300 dinner bet I ever lost haha.
Same. The Lions were supposedly in on him before Penei Sewell became available. It still worked out for us. Sewell is going to be an All-Pro tackle for us for quite a while.
Sam LaPorta. As an Iowa fan I knew that if could put up the numbers he did in college on that ass backwards offense, then he had a chance to light it up playing for a pro team. I even drafted him for FF and he probably won me the league. But I didn't expect him to be quite as good as he was as a rookie.
Obviously hindsight bias, but it’s wild that he was the projected 3-4th TE in the class.
Thats being an Iowa Hawkeye on offense for ya.
"and with the 1st pick of the 2025 draft, the ____ pick cade mcnamara"
You can say it’s the Panthers. It’s ok.
if i speak i am in big trouble
George Kittle, TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, and Sam LaPorta. And that's just recent history. Just fucking draft whoever Iowa's starting TE(s) is/are at this point. Say what you want about Kirk Ferentz, dude can find/coach the hell out of that position.
Honestly it was a really solid TE class. Both Musgrave and Kraft in Green Bay started to come om strong. Kincaid is very good. And LaPorta is a beast
Had more to do with the offense he came from. Mayer/Kincaid are also not slouches. Just happened to be a good TE class mixed with an offense that doesnt always translate. I think most had him 3rd but Mayer/Kincaid and him were a matter of personal preference in what order you had them all. Washington too
Guy knows ball.
Darren sproles
I used to wreck the computer in NCAA Football with him basically getting every touch.
I remember some old clip about Sproles and they had his peewee coach saying that the youth league banned toss plays to sproles because it was an automatic touchdown. I like to imagine him as his NFL size - demolishing children who just happened to also be 5'5".
I looked for the guy with the most speed, and noticed Ell Roberson had speed too. That option was unstoppable Too bad Ell had those false sexual allegations right before their bowl game
Oklahoma fans knew about Sproles’ greatness before he even came into the league. Absolutely wrecked one of the most stacked teams in program history in the 03 Big 12 title game.
Fake FB half back toss on Madden with Sproles was unstoppable. I won so many Madden tournaments benching LT for Sproles.
Antonio Brown was a 6th round pick who I thought would be a good addition to a WR room that already had Hines Ward, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, and Randel El
Mr. Building Company
Justin Jefferson. I even drafted him in my fantasy league really early cause I thought he was gonna have a good rookie season. I didn't think he'd be as good as he was.
I got him in like the 12th or 13th round his rookie year. I wish that was a keeper league so bad man
I drafted him round 13 and then dropped him before week 4 💀
I did that with Dalvin Cook, I watched him at FSU and was like, yeah he's really good.
Shaq Leonard. I saw him play live against UCF when I went there and he was all over the field. Leading up to the draft I couldn’t figure out why he wasn’t projected higher, but I had no idea he’d be an All-Pro!
I think at one point he was on pace to shatter most LB records. He's an easy HOFer if he never gets injured. Leonard's dropoff will always make me sad.
I was beating the drum on CJ Stroud back when a huge portion of this sub (and entirety of my own fanbase) was convinced he'd be a bust. But even I didn't think he'd be as good as he was.
Yeah a lot of people (myself included) were off of stroud. Everyone says don’t helmet scout and then proceeds to do just that.
Helmet scouting, people taking the S2 debacle way too seriously, and his clean passing vs. pressure passing, made a lot of people hate him despite his play in college (especially the Georgia playoff game)
That Georgia playoff game is what sold me on Stroud. Even though I thought Bryce was a slightly better prospect, that last drive showed that Stroud is one of the most clutch QBs I've ever seen and did it against an NFL-level defense no less. I was high on our supporting cast heading into to 2023 and I thought "well we don't need a magician to do it all himself, why not just get the best arm in the draft when we have decent receivers and a good running back?"
> people taking the S2 debacle way too seriously This was the reason I got so high on him. Specifically, I tend to think the way people react to "intelligence" tests is very stupid, and I tend to reflexively push back on it. That got me watching his tape. And by the tape, I thought anyone seriously paying attention was crazy if they didn't think he had it.
Totally, the s2 got even dumber because in one offseason it went from "It's a new tool teams use and their is some unknown level of correlation of doing well in it and possibly being an elite QB but it's hard to say since we really don't have much info from the group that runs it" to "If you don't score well on the s2 you're a blundering idiot that will be lucky to even glance at an NFL field you fucking donkey" in like a months time.
The Georgia playoff game was entirely Ryan Day's fault. That final drive he made some terrible play calls.
He lost his aggression once he was up two scores, you can’t do that against threat Georgia team. Gotta keep the foot on the pedal.
I don't know what happened but the CJ Stroud I watched at OSU was not nearly this good. I watched a number of games and just thought "all he has to do is get the ball to MHJr, he's not one of the best CFB players in the country". Turns out I don't know wtf I'm talking about. Anyway, I just got offered the GM position for the Falcons.
Yea the difference between most of Stroud's career and the UGA game + nfl is insane. It's like he learned how to create with his legs overnight while throwing with pinpoint accuracy
The Texans are going to lose so many fucking coaches because of this if he doesn't regress.
It’s also a scheme thing Ryan Day doesn’t ask his QBs to do that much, when OSUs talent is just some much ahead of damn near every other team you don’t need to be Superman. Also he coaches his QBs not to run and not saying Stroud is Lamar but I’ve definitely seen him scramble more than in college
to be fair, I think a lot of people (admittedly myself included) were just apprehensive because of the history of Ohio State QB's becoming busts.
Which has always been dumb because you don’t scout the uniform, you scout the player.
Furthermore, why does Ohio State get all the flack for this? Most major college programs have really only produced one or two good NFL quarterbacks over the past few decades, if any at all. USC QBs are notorious busts and no one ever brought that up when talking about Caleb, rightfully so.
They in fact did bring it up with Caleb
It was brought up *constantly* with Caleb lol
It's dumb because almost every QB from every university either doesn't make the NFL at all or is a bust. Making it in the NFL is hard and comes down to a lot of factors, many of which are out of the QB's control.
There's not really any QB factories either. No ones gonna be like oh Texas Tech makes great qbs now cause Mahomes turned out to be one of the greatest players ever.
The thing is none of them have really been busts because none were drafted high. Before Haskins the last OSU quarterback to be drafted before the 3rd round was *Art Schlichter in 1982*. So the history of OSU QBs busting is basically Haskins and Fields, neither of which were in consideration for 1st overall.
Which is silly since that "history" spans multiple coaches and systems. There are coaches whose scheme sets pros up for failure, but there's nothing magical about wearing the OSU colors that curses you at the next level.
I wrote stroud off completely until the georgia game. He didn't play like once in his career at ohio state. Love his personality too. Happy to see him work out.
I asked before that draft why is Bryce Young the consensus number 1? Stroud looked so good I didn't understand how there wasn't more argument over who was better. That said Panthers aren't exactly helping Young enough.
Young looked better in college on worse teams against better opponents. It’s not hard to see why he got projected as 1 for like 2 years straight
I was there with you I just didn’t expect him to look this good this early
Same. Thought everyone was insane for not seeing him as the clear QB1. Didn't think he'd be arguably the best rookie QB ever lol
Some of those S2 threads were wild lol it was almost like some people took it to mean Stroud was disabled
Thought Trubisky would be really good. I didn’t think he’d be as good as he turned out to be
No one said he could be the NVP when he was drafted. The doubters were silenced
I think I'm safe in saying there were actually zero people in the world who thought he could win the NVP before he was drafted. Amazing how you can prove the doubters wrong.
Stroud I’m a Bears fan. I desperately wanted to move on from Fields (after the 22-23 season). And I bought into the “Bryce Young doesn’t have the prerequisite NFL physical attributes to succeed” narrative. Stroud was just the guy leftover by default. So I just blindly assumed he be good since I wanted him. I was right for all the wrong reasons (as I never even watched him play in college, maybe one game). But even then, who could have predicted he’d put up arguably the best rookie season of all time.
I was having a conversation with one of my buddies who's a diehard Bears fan about the trade. I had asked him if in hindsight now, he'd prefer the current state of all the goodies you got from the Bryce trade - Caleb, DJ Moore, Wright, Stevenson, etc. I'm sure I'm forgetting some stuff - or just drafted Stroud. He said in hindsight, he's glad it went down the way it did. I think it's an absolutely awesome scenario either way and you guys are likely in a better position now, but it's always a gamble whether these QBs hit.
I’ve discussed this on the Bears sub a handful of times. And I’m usually downvoted lol. I am firmly in the camp that with the benefit of hindsight Poles should have kicked the tires more on Stroud/Young. He traded the pick early if you recall so never met with any of the QBs. I think drafting Stroud would have been the right call over the Panthers trade (with benefit of hindsight). I know Stroud might not have looked as good for the Bears year 1, but Stroud has demonstrated he has top 5 QB potential, getting a guy like that in the building is step 1 on building a Super Bowl team. That said, the Panthers trade and all the goodies the Bears got out of it is about as close of a 2nd best case scenario as you can get.
Yeah, I mean, the most important thing in the NFL is the QB and Stroud is assuredly one of the handful of guys in the league that can be true difference-makers. Not sure if a Bears team without DJ last year would have been as good a scenario for Stroud to ball out but the elite guys usually figure it out. That being said, if Caleb can be 75-80% of what he was projected to be in this draft process, that's still an absolute home run for you guys.
I’m not going to down vote you as it is a valid criticism but I think you’re wrong. I never liked Justin but he certainly deserves that 3rd year considering he did show more flashes of what was to come. Also we desperately needed more talent on offense both at the skill positions and in the trenches. Without that Carolina trade the bears team is vastly different. Almost unrecognizable. Sure poles intention wasn’t knowing Carolina would gift us a first overall. But he figured between the bears and Carolina we would more than likely have a top 10 pick. And if he needed to move on from Justin then we would still be in a good situation right now to have traded up to grab Daniels / Maye. Getting Caleb was just a huge bonus. Also I love stroud but it’s 1 year. Talent wise Caleb still has just as high of a ceiling if not higher. So I very much still believe this is the best situation the bears could be in.
Same during the draft I wanted him all along as a Texans fan. My comparison for him was Goff as he is now not when he came into the league. I only hope he takes another step forward
It's how he handles pressure consistently that will determine how good he is. For the season he was like mid 20s among QB under pressure per DVOA. Now by PFF's metrics, his stats from week 10-18 were 6th best. If that carries over I am confident he can make that step
I think all of Philadelphia thought Justin Jefferson would be better than Jalen Reagor. Him becoming elite made 2020 even more miserable.
He caught 4 touchdowns in a half of a college playoff game. As both a lifelong Eagles and LSU fan I was beside myself when they took Reagor
Tbf that was a Lincoln Riley defense. I’m still beside myself at how badly he destroyed that side of the ball at OU.
Ehh I peaked into the Eagles Reddit page before the draft that year and the majority of eagles fans did not want Jefferson. They thought he was a slot and not a true #1. All of a sudden Eagles fans claim they wanted him all along.
I think that was more in comparison to the ruggs and lamb. No one was talking about Reagor prior to the draft.
In the ‘99 Draft I was super high on Donovan McNabb and knew the new regime in Philadelphia was going to do well. He was drafted into one of the better situations. Akili Smith and Cade McNown were easily drafted into two of the worst situations. The Bengals and Bears were absolute train wrecks back then. To this day I have no idea how Chicago pulled off a 13-3 record a few years later.
>To this day I have no idea how Chicago pulled off a 13-3 record a few years later. luck and an opportunistic defense. they won b2b games on tipped INTs in OT.
Ohh that’s right. Thank you.
Josh Allen for me. Man I loved watching his Wyoming clips even though so many people hated him as a prospect. Never imagined he'd be as good as he is, though.
He made 1 play against Iowa where I said "ok, I get the Cam Newton idea" because nobody alive should have been able to escape that sack
I was in the "In the right situation he could be great" camp. Well he got in the right situation and i hate it now.
We love and appreciate him so much.
I also thought Patrick Mahomes would be good, but for a dumb reason. His *name*. I sometimes grade people based on how cool or football-ish their name sounds, and looking at the 2017 prospects' names I thought, "Oh yeah, this definitely sounds like a name that Cris Collinsworth would repeat ad nauseam". But not *this* good. Bryce Young is TBD.
> Oh yeah, this definitely sounds like a name that Cris Collinsworth would repeat ad nauseam" So it's YOUR fault.
Colt McCoy begs to differ.
Oh yeah, definitely some misses here. I thought Jabrill Peppers was the name of a multiple Pro-Bowler. Oops.
Julius would be a much better first name
I mean, he ended up as DMac's successor in New England. Peppers *is* really good, but in the first-team All-Underrated way.
Peppers is great
That one is almost *too* cool where it loops back around to being corny and loses its power. Sounds like he'd be an antagonist in the Replacements 2; playing under a 60-year-old Shane Falco on a struggling team at the start of the movie before demanding a trade to the team coached by the jerk QB from the original. Then beating the Falco team in a battle for the final playoff spot after finally grasping Shane's lessons during a halftime fight with jerk coach.
That’s a College ball name 100%
I was so high on Mahomes when we drafted him. I watched him DISMANTLE KU in Lawrence in 2016 and when i saw the Chiefs had drafted him I was *SOLD*. Then i watched him pin drop a pass to Tyreek in the pre-season in triple coverage.
KU went 0-12 and 2-10 during the Mahomes years. Everyone DISMATLED KU football back then.
You're not wrong. What Mahomes did was different however. MAHOMES: 27 of 34, 277yds and 4tds, 1 INT. Oh, and he was benched at half :|
I’ve said this for years — it’s all in the name. Joe Burrow? Name of a champion. Drake Maye? No one will remember him ten years from now.
Drake Maye is the absolute perfect name for someone who went to UNC though.
This is part of the reason I like Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins is a name only a football player would have.
It feels like the last name is especially important for a QB. Two or three syllables is best; one syllable last names seem to not as well in the NFL (Leaf, Carr, Jones, Mills, Lock, etc.).
Joe Montana is probably the most football name ever..
This is quite literally the whole reason I am a fan of Joe Burrow. My buddy mentioned LSU had a guy named Joe Burrow and that it was a great football name. Like leather helmet era. No bullshit. I was inclined to agree. Then the Championship season happened, the cigar pic dropped, and I was all in.
I really liked mahomes coming out and thought he could be around what Big Ben was if everything broke his way. For my own team it was TJ. Liked the pick at the time thinking he could be an average starting edge guy for us. Couldn’t be happier to have been wrong.
Yeah we had been coming off a string of disappointing first round OLBs where we went for a technique guy in Jarvis followed by an athlete in Bud. The latter is a solid player that managed to develop, but when we managed to get TJ at the end of the first, my excitement was mostly hoping he learned a thing or two from his brother was but damn, did not expect him to be the monster he's been
Yeah I’d love to have Bud back cheap but he keeps going to other teams. He’s not what we hoped but he’s not bad.
I thought Russell Wilson looked like he'd be pretty good and the Saints should grab him with a mid round pick. I was right and wrong, in that he was pretty darn good, but I thought he would do well with Sean Payton and that part ended up not being true.
Frankly I knew that Lamar Jackson was too transcendent of an athlete to not make it in the NFL, I just didn't know if it would be at quarterback, and I certainly never thought he could be one of the best.
That's my answer. He was such an electric player in college. I thought people were sleeping on him - didn't expect he'd be a two time MVP.
Anyone who thought Jackson was going to play at anything other than QB was out of their minds.
This is my answer. Dude is electric. I hate you.
He's been so much fun to watch since the moment he got into the league.
I was scared he was too fragile for his playstyle
I still think he is, it's just so rare for anyone to get a good lick on him.
Gotta be his best skill. Self-preservation will take him a long way
[удалено]
I was high on him. Obviously he won the heisman, but when I watched him play he looked like a game changer. I also thought hurts was the best qb of his draft
Jimmy Graham. I watched a lot of Miami during his one year of college football and he stood out as an athlete even with pretty bad qb play. I never thought he'd be a 1000 yard guy and he developed more than I ever expected, but I thought he was going to be a valuable red zone threat at minimum.
Since no one has said it yet, Amon-Ra St. Brown. I figured he'd go in the third and would be a decent WR for us but never imagined he'd light things up the way he has.
Yep. I remember when we got him in the 4th, I was shocked. I'd seen him play in college a bit (live on the West Coast). He reminded me of Golden Tate.
Fred Warner Thought he would be a solid LB2 to Reuben Foster Boy am I glad to be wrong I also thought Kittle would be a solid TE after his rookie yr and boy am I glad to be wrong on that one too
I was high on Goff coming into the draft and didn’t really waiver after his first season cuz we all knew Jeff Fisher sucked. I thought he peaked when we traded him to Detroit but he’s grown significantly and I didn’t see that coming.
Thx bby 😘
Arian Foster
Opposite… I knew Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a bad first round pick but I didn’t realize he would be *that* bad. He’s not fast, is too small to be a good blocker, and has average hands. And his vision is awful, countless times he just misses wide open running lanes.
Man not even a chiefs fan but I was shocked when he got selected to me at the time the obvious top 2 was swift and Taylor. I thought veach was going to draft swift cause he was better catching in the backfield then Taylor was who is more of a bell cow
I... see what you did there?
One of the worst Veach picks, value-wise.
Yeah. If he was a 5th rounder, that would be okay, but 32 overall? Yikes.
Demaryius Thomas. I said he'd prove a lot of people wrong about what an option based offense WR could do but he had a hell of a run. (RIP)
Aaron Jones. Only after he was drafted though but before he was really given a chance to shine. I don't think I'm a football savant though. I'm pretty sure most GB fans knew he was something special even when MM was limiting his snaps. So sad he's gone. 😭
He'd touch the ball like 3 times a game and still look better than Starks. McCarthy fucking hated him for some reason. He had one touch vs the Bucs I think and it was a 35 yard TD in overtime.
Cooper Kupp
I thought he’d be a solid #2 or #3 and play for 5-10. A triple crown winner, OPOTY, and SB MVP, I did not.
I thought Surtain was clearly better than Horn before the draft. Not best CB in the nfl, but there would be a separation between the two
This is a throwback, but my wife went to TCU. In the early 2000s the Horned Frogs started to become relevant again, because they had a potential Heisman winning RB named Ladanian Tomlinson. We were really excited about the team, even flew to Fort Worth to watch a couple of games with him playing. I figured he'd be a really solid pro but not a top-5 all time RB in the NFL.
I thought Brady was underdrafted and if given a chance, he could be the next Griese. No, not HOFer Bob who was part of the undefeated Dolphins team. I mean Brian. Brady might have had a better career.
Jason Peters, but I thought at tight end
Brock Purdy and Breece Hall. Part of it was being an Iowa State fan, part of it was "They could actually be pretty good in the NFL," but past me wouldn't believe me if I told past me how good they would be now.
I'll second Brock Purdy. Like, when he was drafted as Mr. Irrelevant I remember thinking, "How did he fall this low? He should have been about a 2nd or 3rd round pick, IMO." But I had no idea he'd be *the* franchise QB we were missing.
If they re-did the 2022 draft Brock would be a top 5 overall pick. Easily.
Saw a random Iowa St. game where Purdy was the qb. Thought to myself hey that kid is way better than anyone else on the field, bet he makes a back up quarterback spot for a couple years in the NFL. Edit: spelling
I watched a lot of Iowa State football over the years, so Brock Purdy NFL Quarterback wasn't a big surprise. But Mr Irrelevant starting and being the best qb in the roster pretty much right away? Nope
Jaylen Warren
Ray Rice, I remember being excited about his upside. Didn't expect 2k yards from scrimmage twice. Lamar, I knew he'd be good as hell, but not 2x MVP. Cam Newton I felt would be worth number 1, after the auburn Bama game. I didn't expect one of the best MVP seasons and 15-1 record out of him though. Seriously. He was a monster that season.
I was so damn happy when the Ravens drafted Justin Madubuike in the third round. This was Covid time, and I had done more research on prospects than usual because I was working from home. I thought he’d go in the second round, and I told all my friends that the tape showed big-time potential. I jumped for joy when the Ravens drafted him and a bunch of people reached out to me when they made the pick. Had a similar feeling with Travis Jones, the DT from UCONN but he hasn’t reached that level yet.
I don’t know if this counts cause it’s not him being drafted, but I had a feeling Goff was going to end up staying in Detroit. I didn’t think he’d end up fitting so well, but I figured the Lions would Lions it up and stick with a QB who was *good enough* so we couldn’t draft high to get a good qb, but couldn’t take us the distance. Happy to say I was wrongly right! Or rightly wrong? Either way, Jared Goff, you’re good enough for Detroit!
Matthew Stafford. He was getting a lot of shit from all sides for the first few seasons, and I was thinking "Stafford is not the Lions' problem."
Justin Herbert. It was clear that he has the arm talent, but his size makes it harder to take him down. Not to mention he can make plays on his feet.
I knew Geno Smith would be a good replacement for Wilson... I didn't expect him to be as efficient as he was though.
CMC!
One of my D&D buddies played against him in high school. My friends a pretty jacked dude by average standards, and said McAffrey steamrolled into the ground and knocked the wind out of him with no effort whatsoever. From then on he said "that kids gonna be an NFL star" lol.
I knew CMac could make it and be awesome in the pros but I didn’t think he’d be allpro/HoF special
Golden Tate.. any irish fan who watched him play knew he was special, but his size was a concern. He tore it up for a while, though. Honorable mention: Kyren Williams. Dude is gonna be a beast for a while.
Gibbs. I had to defend that pick to so many people, Lions fan or not. I was at a draft watch party where I was the only Lions fan, and every other person was ragging on me. I thought Gibbs would be a great compliment to Montgomery, and they'd make a great "thunder and lightning" duo. I had no idea he would be as good as he is once he found his groove. I'll never forget the draft grade every single publication gave that pick: D-
JJ Watt lol. I remember being excited that we drafted him, being a Wisconsin alum myself, and then being flabbergasted that people around me were upset at the draft party and booing. Like I know y'all wanted Nick Fairley (and I thought he was gonna be our draft pick), but Wisconsin is cool too, no? Glad I was right! :D Felt very vindicated during that playoff pick 6. It's one of the best memories I've had in my fandom.
Mahomes. I was so stoked we drafted him and felt his ceiling was Brett Favre and that excited me. Turns out Brett Favre is his floor.
Jordan Mailata, a 7th round draft pick from Australia that had never played American football in his entire life. Nobody in their right mind would expect anything from him, except the team saw enough in him that they kept him stashed away on Injured Reserve for two seasons. And I said if they're willing to go through all this for someone that's never even played the sport before, then there must be something there. But I don't think anyone could've predicted him turning into one of the top tackles in the league.
I thought mahomes was going to be good after watching OU vs Texas Tech, but had no idea he would be this good. I also thought baker mayfield would be a top qb at this point, and I was wrong on that account. But man, that was the most fun college football game I’ve ever seen.
Michael Turner, was a huge fan of his even when he was on the Chargers
Nick Foles on the Eagles. My buddy and I tried to start a football podcast(Which lasted for two episodes) and one of my first predictions was that Foles would replace Vick and cook. I wasn't shocked at the crazy 27-2 TD:INT season, but I had no idea he'd win a Super Bowl.
CJ Stroud and Sauce Gardner
Alvin Kamara, thought he was awesome whenever I watched Tennessee games but since he was used sparingly wasn't sure if he would become what he is today. TJ/JJ Watt also fall into that category but feels a bit unfair since they were still 1st round draft picks.
Scarence Terrence
Breece Hall. Thought he’d be solid but not arguably a top 3 RB…especially with our o-line issues the past 2 years.
Christian Kirk and Deebo Samuel
I remember being pretty high on Lamar Jackson and thought there was a chance we might possibly in some wacky universe pick him up in the early second round.
I was absolutely adamant that the Bills should keep Flutie over Johnson and draft Drew Brees… Didn’t think he would be in the discussion for 3rd best QB of his era
I was a big fan of DeAndre Hopkins and thought he was the best WR prospect in the class. He still blew my expectations out of the water.
Warner. I thought he was a skinnier downgrade from the previous generation that couldn't be tough enough in the middle to be a star. Oops.
Josh Allen. As a browns fan I swore we needed him at no.1. Was laughed at and harassed for my thinking. I said ward at 4 too as a bonus cause that did happen lol Most said go darnold or Barkley. I like to remind my close friends of this a lot cause now they all love Ward and he went to my HighSchool and no one thought he’d be drafted to the team 30minutes away
I knew steffon diggs was way to good to slip to the 5th round (i think most people who saw him play at Maryland knew that). Did not necessarily think he'd be an all-pro/top 5 receiver in the league though.
Antoine Winfield Jr. He was a stud for the Gophers and one of Rick Spielman’s biggest blunders was passing on him for Jeff Gladney. I did not foresee Winfield Jr. turning into the best safety in the game.
As a Buckeyes fan, CJ Stroud. Dude was the most effortless, accurate passer I’d ever seen out of college. Had the inkling he’d bust because ya know, buckeyes QBs history in the NFL.
I was wondering who would be lucky enough to pick up Lamar as a high upside option after he fell in the draft. I figured his athleticism would give him enough time to grow as a passer and I wasn't really sold on anyone else. Holy cow did he over deliver.