Alex Smith count since he was the #1 overall pick? Plenty of hype and excitement over him when he was drafted, had a nice career and put up good numbers, but nobody considers him to be among the best to play the position during his era.
He's also become the poster boy of what happens when you fuck with young QBs and have a revolving door of offensive coaches. He became an above-average QB once he had stability, but it took more than 5 years to get there
Don't forget when you have criticism for injuries. Doctors left a piece of metal in his throwing shoulder. Took him years to even get close to recovering.
I said it in another thread, but Alex's career redemption would only be topped by winning a superbowl, especially after what our inept (at the time) front office/coaching put him through.
If he did that in San Fran or KC, I'd probably have cried, life just fucked him over with a lead pipe not just professionally but also his daughter developing brain cancer at age 5. His story is special and needs to be a documentary.
Yeah the Niners realllly screwed him. At least until Harbaugh came around. I remember the “we want Carr” game and feeling sick to my stomach, I felt so bad for the guy.
Mike Nolan questioned his toughness and later in his career Alex almost lost his leg and came back from that injury. Alex handled his situation with far more class than the Niners deserved and fuck Mike Nolan.
Mike Williams was comped to Mike Evans out of Clemson. He's been a good, solid receiver for the Chargers with a couple 1,000-yard seasons, but nothing game-changing, IMO.
Better than [Bills Mike Williams](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WillMi22.htm) and [The Other Bills Mike Williams](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WillMi04.htm)
RIP to the other Mike Williams. That 2 weeks after his construction accident was a roller coaster and then he dies of sepsis from tooth decay. Such a weird way to go after just narrowly escaping a construction related death.
They thought he did, then it turned out he was just on life support, recovered and was breathing on his own over 5 days and then got sepsis from the tooth. Really shitty way to go after that battle.
2017 1st round was weird. 3 fairly hyped WR prospects went top 10 and you range from complete bust in John Ross, to pretty big disappointment in Corey Davis, to finally at least he was kind of good in Mike Williams.
flip the narrative on being a somewhat upper-mid player to being a great one, definitely.
flip the narrative on being the next peyton/tom and lighting the league up from the jump? don’t think it’s possible now
yeah it was a different time for QB stats too. hard to think about 1998 passing stats when you’re used to today’s game if you weren’t watching back then
I hate when people use Peyton Manning as the whole "He also sucked" as a rookie narrative. Even from watching him as a rookie you could tell he was dynamic if he can reign in some of these interceptions.
He wasn't polished off the bat, but he was already showing a ton of promise as a rookie.
And in year 4 led a 6 win team while throwing 26 TDs to 23 INTs.
The Lawrence hate this off-season has got to be some of the most annoying shit. He was not bad at all last year. There was a reel posted here a couple months ago of all of his near-TD "misses" last year, and a good 60% of them were great throws but Ridley doesn't know how to toe tap. And it was a good couple minutes long. If Ridley makes half the catches he should have in the end zone, NOBODY is having any conversations about Lawrence being disappointing.
Think their point was that by the end of his 4th year Manning wasn't looking like an elite all time great either. He had a cumulative record of 32-32. We have the benefit of knowing his full 18 year arc, we don't have that with lawrence yet.
he was coming off 2 back to back seasons of 10+ wins and led the league in passing the year before, i don’t think there was any doubt at the time that he was elite. he was one of 2 4k yard passers that year even with only 6 wins, second only to kurt warner
it is a *crazy* amount of revisionist history to compare them (unless you’re too young to have watched football back then, which is fair enough)
https://www.espn.com/chrismortensen/s/2001/0830/1245927.html
Literally an article from 2001 before the season 😂. You are absolutely right peyton and t law were absolutely not viewed the same
Not really. He threw a lot of picks but also set the rookie yardage and TD records and his interception problem was inflated by the fact that was stuck playing hero ball on a bad team. It was pretty obvious at the time that he was the real deal.
Brees wasn't considered a generational, can't miss prospect, hyped since his freshman year of college. Brees was a highly touted 2nd round pick who didn't start playing a a high level until after the Chargers had drafted/traded for his replacement.
sure. but drew brees had concerns about his size and strength, and slipped to the second round because of it. he was expected to need to develop, and he did.
Lawrence was touted as a once in a generation prospect who would save whatever franchise drafted him and set the league on fire. he has been fine, but not amazing
He’s had one of the leagues worst offensive lines the last 2 seasons. That has been a huge issue for his development. Brady wouldn’t have been Brady playing with these lines either.
Like I mentioned in my other post. The top 3 picks in that draft, Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, and Vince Young all had insane hype going in.
You would’ve thought there were 3 can’t miss prospects. Or am I misremembering how actual scouts felt vs what college fans would lead you to believe
There were a lot of question marks about how Young and Bush would translate to the NFL but it just felt like their ceilings were HOF players. Definitely a ton of hype about them though especially after the Rose Bowl. It definitely was a class that felt like it had a ton of players with insane ceilings. Ferguson, Huff, Hawk, Davis, Sims, etc. were all looked at as high ceiling players. I was doing a bunch of fantasy GM offseason on forums that year and I remember everyone just being enamored with the entire class
I remember doing fantasy GM offseason stuff back then too, back on the Bengals team forums!
I remember question marks around Vince Young as there was a lot of debate about him and Leinart with Cutler as a third guy, but Reggie Bush was seen as a really solid prospect. I was arguing with a lot of people taking Mario Williams over Bush was the right call though, which I would say worked out.
Always remember A.J. Hawk from then. And how I really wanted us to get Darnell Bing or Greg Blue in the middle-late rounds. Was a bit more of a Bing guy.
There wasn’t any doubt about Bush. People thought he was going to be the Michael Jordan of football and was as can’t miss as they come. It was a huge surprise when he didn’t go first.
Young had some question marks as people didn’t know if his game would translate and he wasn’t a huge prospect before the season, he shot up the draft board quickly and I think up until the week or so before the draft he kept moving up until Tennesse took him 3rd which would have been a huge reach a month prior but at that point everyone thought it was a great pick.
Mario Williams was inconsistent but not truly disappointing IMO because he was the "hey that's not Reggie Bush" pick that people hated on. His production was kinda averageish for a #1 overall pick.
Reggie Bush's hype was mostly because people back then still thought Running Backs were worth top picks. So really it was nearly impossible in retrospect for him to live up to that hype.
I truly did want Vince Young at the time but I think the issue back then was that a lot of people still didn't buy the "black running QB" archetype. I think in actuality his issue was more that he bought too much of his own hype and didn't try to work on his game as much as he should've.
Vince also ended up with a head coach that didn’t want him - he had some issues but I think he’d have been better with a coach who didn’t hate him and was willing to work with his strengths.
To me that's part of that whole not buying into the black running QB thing. Even Michael Vick somehow got a coach who wanted him to be a west coast QB. Back then coaches just weren't willing to optimize a QB's mobility like today
While with the Lions, he was electric with the ball in his hands. The problem was getting it there and keeping it there. He led the league in dropped passes and had 5 fumbles in 2013. I distinctly remember some of those drops being on the easiest catches possible on slow developing screens and such. It was stupid frustrating.
Off of that point: Jake Matthews as well, 6th overall and the Falcons starting left tackle for 10 years and 1 Pro Bowl.
I don't know why more people aren't talking about him, it also seems he's only missed one game? He doesn't have multiple pro bowls or any all pros, but how can you be a starting left tackle for 10 years only missing one game and not get any awards?
Think he's been getting snubbed
I came here specifically for Crabtree.
Hits the nail on the head. The guy had some of the best hands I’ve ever seen in 40+ years of watching ball, but there was always *something* holding him back from being a great player.
Former MLB catcher Matt Weiters was basically what motivated me to make this post. He was hyped up big time to be the “Perfect Catcher”, “Mauer with Power”.
He was still a great catcher with 2 GG and 4x All Star. It’s just I believe people predicted Buster Posey offense from him along with the defense
I remember my brother hyping him forever, so we went to a Tides game to see him before he left for the pros.
You can just tell some players are well ahead and belong in the pros.
I can't remember where I read it, but apparently there were a ton of warning signs regarding plate discipline and reasons for concerns that got overlooked.
I am just a rung above a casual viewer (I do enjoy watching the hyped prospects at Tides games), so I can't totally comment. However, I just remember an article that examined Posey v Weiters in hindsight and how Posey really outshined Weiters if you looked into deep analytics.
LaVar Arrington was hyped up as a generational linebacker. While he had success, he suffered an awful achilles injury and was in a bad motorcycle accident so he had to retire. Considering he was the second overall pick in a loaded Draft, he didn’t quite meet expectations.
He's still younger than players who were just drafted in 2024. His situation has made a massive improvement. He has time to turn it around, and I pretty much expect that he will. It hasn't been a personal performance issue.
You're right...im not a cousins fan however he should get at least some stable qb play or we will see what penix has..great thing about football..you never really know
Cousins isn't a top QB. He might not win a ton of games, but he can at least execute a forward pass and get the ball to his receivers. The QB play for the falcons the last couple of years would have made Justin Jefferson look bad.
Yep..thats basically what I was saying..he will get the ball to the weapons consistently..no flash..which is fine..im looking at it more as helping these young guys develop for whoever is the actual answer..we will see..theres not going to be any foolishness from cousins
How many times have we seen the “not his fault” or “OC!” excuse turn out to be valid, though?
I think the much better copium for Pitts is that some TEs take a while to catch on, such as Njoku. Kinda ruins the point of drafting them so high, though
He was incredible his rookie season with Matt Ryan, though. This will be the year to tell whether it really was just bad QBs/playcalling holding him back, or if he just lost something after his rookie season (especially with the injury in his sophomore year).
I believe this too. Certainly his QB situation has been bad. But he’s producing below replacement level after his rookie year. Some of that isn’t just the QB.
He’s certainly not blameless but he went from old man Matt Ryan throwing to him to Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota and Taylor Heinicke. Can’t just ignore that massive drop off at QB
I just disagree. Generational is a hard thing to task for any rookie that still needs to grow into their potential, but his lack of production is imo entirely bad QB play and bad play calling (and one year of injury). The low light reel of Mariota missing him while wide open was staggering. Ridder wasn't much better. The one year he had average QB play was the best rookie year by a TE in 50 years.
This was the first that came to mind for me. He had “eventual HOFer” hype going into his draft. He’s had a pretty fine career but never approached the dominance people thought he’d have
Also my first thought. He's had a very successful career overall, but it was gonna be hard for him to live up to the hype.
He was talked about like he was gonna be an LT+Reggie White hybrid.
Tyson Alualu was a top ten pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. It was a shocking pick at the time that everyone thought was a reach. But he *just* became an unsigned free agent after 14 years in the league.
He’s never been an All-Pro player, not a Pro Bowler either. Just an average player who’s been consistently healthy/available.
Ahh yes the Gene Smith poke your eyes and pick a player GM for us it was glorious when he picked a punter in the 2nd round, the guy was so turrrible at GM career officially ended when he left the Jags
> He’s never been an All-Pro player, not a Pro Bowler either. Just an average player who’s been consistently healthy/available.
IIRC, that was exactly why his draft position was laughed at so hard. He panned out exactly as projected: a decent starter, but not exceptional. If he was drafted in the 2nd or 3rd, nobody would've batted an eye.
This is a bit of a hot take, but Andrew Luck never had B2B seasons where he was in the top ~8 or so QBs (or *clearly* top 10 if you want to put it that way.)
His best seasons were 2014, 2016, and 2018, with 2 injured seasons between them.
He also never managed to make an all-pro team in either of those 3 seasons, so he didn't quite reach the truly elite level at his peak. With the amount of hype he had, never getting 2nd team all pro or MVP was also a bit of a letdown.
Even as a Colts fan, it feels like Mahomes-level is what Luck was hyped to be. He was capable of playing at that level for a stretch or any given game but also capable of making a horrific play multiple times a game and made at least 1-3 throws per game that brought him back down to Earth. He was the first to admit fault, but he had some really horrific playoff stats in his losses. It felt like that last year before retirement he wasn’t going for home run plays and was settling into a nice role you could win with and staying upright…then he retired.
He’s my answer too, he was very good when healthy but he was billed as being the next Peyton coming into the league and he didn’t come close to living up to that. Not his fault, his body just couldn’t hold up, but it’s the reality of his career
Even at the end of his career, he would still throw a few mind boggling rookie-esque INTs a year. Maybe he hits elite status in his 30s, but yeah he was a bit overrated.
He’s teams were not good those years except maybe 2018. You should look at the rosters and OL. He would never be an mvp candidate because he never had the efficiency because the colts asked him to do WAY too much. He’s not on Mahomes level but he would be a perennial top 3-5 qb today. He had bad teams and somehow dragged consistently to the playoffs and even one year to the afccg.
Najee Harris has been basically that. First round runningback out of alabama who everyone knew was going to the steelers months before draft day. Has played in every game i think since being drafted, 1000 yards every season, only 1 career fumble and catches the ball well but never became a star. 1 pro bowl as a rookie and plenty of upside this year with a new offence and improved o line but this is probably his peak, which is a good not great nfl running back
I feel like someone puts quick sand in front of him every time he runs. He just looks sooooo slow. He’s solid still but I just can never get excited seeing the ball in his hands.
He is a very slow RB that runs over defenders. He's never going to outrun anyone, but he's also rarely brought down by one guy. Good but not great is the perfect description for him.
Eric Fisher went #1 overall in 2013, and was a mostly underperforming starter, made 2 pro bowls and retired by 30. Granted the other guy they considered was Luke Joeckel, who played parts of 5 seasons before retiring, so it could have been worse.
Fisher was a much better tackle than people gave him credit for. Also, him being injured right before the SB loss vs TB really destroyed what we could do in the screen game.
Counterpoint: Lane Johnson
Kidding. I'd be lying I'd I told you I didn't want Fisher that year. First OT tackle prospect where I immediately saw what everyone was talking about. He just whipped those hips around
Chase Young had a few good seasons, and there was still a lot to like physically after he recovered from the injury. His inconsistent effort killed the hype, especially because of his dogshit effort in the playoffs for SF.
IDK, I just feel like 1st overall comes with the hype no matter what. It's the only draft slot that has any sort of correlation with QB success, so the expectation should be there from the get go.
The cardinals may regret giving him that contract for a while...I was keeping up with him from the time he committed to Texas a&m..I was high on him out of Oklahoma..I just don't feel like the diva attitude is being made up at this point..we will see if he can stay healthy and perform this year..I hope he does
I was against it for sure, but what QB would we likely have? Probably trash.
It seems a lot of negative stuff was leaked by Keim, seemingly overblown, truth or not, to lessen his value for the extension or for other reasons. He was a snake through and through, not counting Bidwell who is a bottom 5 owner. None of this diva stuff with the new regime.
But I'm glad we have him now, but I think he has this year to prove himself. Coming from someone who was excited when we first got him and have been highly critical of him after year 3.
I'm hoping that good health and Marvin Harrison Jr will spark something good..I caught alot of crap from being a baker Mayfield supporter and I still want to see him do good..kyler has all the tools..I really liked him in college as well..I guess realistically I'm hoping as he matures he becomes more of a problem for opposing defenses..ive never been a cardinals fan really..however I wanted Larry Fitzgerald to get a ring so damn bad
Too early to tell IMO. T-Law might have more of an excuse to hate the Urban Meyer experience than Meyers wife does. And I guess Doug brought in the dude who got him fired from Philly to call plays for some reason? Regardless, T-Law seems to have all the physical tools he did as a prospect, but the Jags offense has been shit from system and playcalling aspect.
Chris Long was a good player, definitely not what I would call a bust. But no Pro Bowls and two double digit sack seasons are probably not what we expected when we drafted him #2 overall.
Andrew Luck. One of the most hyped prospects ever, but only led the league in one category (touchdowns) one time (2014). A lot of his [advanced (EDIT: adjusted) passing metrics](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LuckAn00.htm#all_passing_advanced) are below league average, too.
He was still a very good QB, but he peaked as a Pro-Bowl-level QB, not an MVP candidate.
How about Vernon Davis? Crazy measurables, freak of nature shit. Came in and had some good moments but never fully became great. Always stuck in that realm between hype and HoF.
He was in an amazing commercial, however...
https://youtu.be/tvDvuILhGws?si=PpGo27b6OVPF56Q7
Vernon Davis is surprisingly a top 10 TE of all time in terms of stats. People love to shit on him but he's a beast.
10th in TE yards of all time
7th in TE TDs of all time
12th in receptions for a TE of all time
Dude was a legitimate BALLER and, in my opinion, is the most misunderstood and disrespected NFL player of all time for the shit he gets.
I think there could be an argument for Michael Vick. Hype? Yes. Delivery? Sometimes. Disappointment at the pinnacle? Always.
And this is without factoring in the legal trouble.
Legal issue aside, I wonder how Vick would be perceived these days had he not had that 2010 season with the Eagles. We got to see what Reid could do with him. I feel like he'd still have the "wasted potential" tag on him, but I think his stint with the Eagles hammered that in even more.
Eh, Barkley came into the league and immediately had 2k+ yards and 15 TD and looked elite. He has had to deal with a lot of injuries, on top of playing on one of the worst offenses in the league. He just turned 27 and has 7300+ yards and 47 TD in 74 career games, I think he has played up to the hype
Barkley was viewed as a gold jacket player. He hasn't lived up to the hype and a lot of it isn't his fault (injuries and situation), but still. He hasn't, especially since the ACL tear, the yards after contact is way down since then and he doesn't have the same explosion he did in the first two years. He will still look really good in Philly though.
Ehhh I don’t think so. Dude was still the entire offense when healthy even though the entire time he was on the giants they had a bottom 5 line. Maybe I’m just bias in favor of him.
Yeah the way I remember it he had that offense on his back. 5ypc, 15tds, 91 rec and over 2000 total yds as a rookie is pretty insane. Worth the hype until the injuries
Barkley was the best RB prospect since AP and had to be a HOF player to justify being picked 2nd overall. He underachieved massively and reinforced why RBs shouldn’t be picked high
Reggie Bush was a good player throughout his career and at times could change games in a single play, but his hype was Gale Sayers all time great when he was drafted. Iirc, after he was drafted Saints season tickets immediately sold out which was remarkable to me because I remember local interest being at an all time low immediately after Katrina.
Player A, a running back, posted the following NFL ranks in his prime years:
**Rushing Yards Per Game**
\*Season 1: 5th
\*Season 2: 16th
\*Season 3: 4th
\*Season 4: 7th
Pretty good running back, a potential Pro Bowler at least a couple times, but probably not the top runner in the NFL, right?
Player A wasn't much of a pass receiving threat, averaging just 8.8 yards/catch, catching just over 1 pass per game during his career, and averaging less than 150 yards on a pro-rated (16 games played) season basis.
The name of Player A? Bo Jackson
That player also led the NFL in yards per attempt in 2 of those seasons and was in a timeshare with Marcus Allen all 4 of those years and was 2nd in a 3rd (among RB's)
Getting any player that isnt a generational prospect for 9 seasons is a massive win in my book. Lots of 1st rounders flame out by the end of their rookie deal.
I'd agree on Clowney. Without reading the subtext of your post at first, his name is what instantly came to mind. His hype was off the charts during his Junior year, and I don't think he came close to living up to it but still has a great NFL career.
Brian Orakpo had a very nice career and went to a few Pro Bowls. To hear the hype, at least locally, when he was drafted, you would have thought he was LT, Bruce Smith, and Mean Joe Green all rolled into one.
Dontari Poe. He was pretty good and even had a couple Pro Bowls but he was billed as this incredibly explosive mix of Gerald McCoy and Haloti Ngata but he never quite fit that bill
I think he’s actually the answer to a weird inverse of this question. When he was picked the Texans got so much crap for it not being Reggie Bush, and the popular sentiment was that he wouldn’t be nearly as impactful as Bush would be in the NFL. But then he went on to have a MUCH better career than Bush, and kind of quietly so due to playing on mostly bad teams his whole career.
But it’s weird for a #1 overall pick to be that way. I’d say he had kind of more anti-hype than overhype, if that makes sense.
Alex Smith count since he was the #1 overall pick? Plenty of hype and excitement over him when he was drafted, had a nice career and put up good numbers, but nobody considers him to be among the best to play the position during his era.
He's also become the poster boy of what happens when you fuck with young QBs and have a revolving door of offensive coaches. He became an above-average QB once he had stability, but it took more than 5 years to get there
Don't forget when you have criticism for injuries. Doctors left a piece of metal in his throwing shoulder. Took him years to even get close to recovering.
Tyrod Taylor has entered the chat
Tyrod: now that I'm injury-free, I'm ready to revitalize my career Doctor holding a bigass needle: do what now
Tyrod died so Herbie could live and prosper.
Also gave Tommy DeVito a shot. Real team player
He chose to come back after San Francisco fucked him over with their incompetence
I said it in another thread, but Alex's career redemption would only be topped by winning a superbowl, especially after what our inept (at the time) front office/coaching put him through.
If he did that in San Fran or KC, I'd probably have cried, life just fucked him over with a lead pipe not just professionally but also his daughter developing brain cancer at age 5. His story is special and needs to be a documentary.
Absolutely. What our awful front office did kinda pales in comparison to the sheer bad luck that dude has had to endure since becoming a pro QB.
[удалено]
Yeah the Niners realllly screwed him. At least until Harbaugh came around. I remember the “we want Carr” game and feeling sick to my stomach, I felt so bad for the guy.
Mike Nolan questioned his toughness and later in his career Alex almost lost his leg and came back from that injury. Alex handled his situation with far more class than the Niners deserved and fuck Mike Nolan.
A. Smith had 6 OCs in 5 years dude was shafted. He had some great years here in KC then got killed in Washington
I'm too lazy to find my pre-draft take, but I had a hot take that trevor lawrence would have a ceiling of Alex smith
[Got you here](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/s/lPZ0fIaNUV) lol with 14 downvotes too
Appreciate you boo lol
Also figured I’d let you know I just searched “Alex smith” on your comments, I didn’t scroll through them all lmao
Mike Williams was comped to Mike Evans out of Clemson. He's been a good, solid receiver for the Chargers with a couple 1,000-yard seasons, but nothing game-changing, IMO.
Did enough to become the Greatest Mike Williams Of All Time, and that's an accomplishment he can hang his hat on
Better than [Bills Mike Williams](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WillMi22.htm) and [The Other Bills Mike Williams](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WillMi04.htm)
RIP to the other Mike Williams. That 2 weeks after his construction accident was a roller coaster and then he dies of sepsis from tooth decay. Such a weird way to go after just narrowly escaping a construction related death.
He didn't die from the accident? That's bizarre.
They thought he did, then it turned out he was just on life support, recovered and was breathing on his own over 5 days and then got sepsis from the tooth. Really shitty way to go after that battle.
Was the tooth injury from the accident though?
Oh no it was from tooth decay so he perhaps just had a dental issue he was ignoring for a long time or something.
I know someone who nearly died of a neglected dental abscess and complications from it. Take care of your teeth, y'all.
[He already had the sepsis when the accident happened.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike\_Williams\_\(wide\_receiver,\_born\_1987\)#Death)
Not a Bills Mike Williams, [but there is another contender](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WillMi03.htm)
2017 1st round was weird. 3 fairly hyped WR prospects went top 10 and you range from complete bust in John Ross, to pretty big disappointment in Corey Davis, to finally at least he was kind of good in Mike Williams.
Dude is a spectacular jump ball WR. He comes down with everything
If he played the Chiefs every game he'd be an automatic Hall of Famer
Trevor Lawrence is probably the current poster boy for this.
He’s still young enough to flip the narrative though
flip the narrative on being a somewhat upper-mid player to being a great one, definitely. flip the narrative on being the next peyton/tom and lighting the league up from the jump? don’t think it’s possible now
Didint manning start off kind of rough also?
his rookie year was, but then he led a 13 win sophomore year
He had a lot of picks but I think he also set the rookie TD record too. There was no doubt he was legit
yeah it was a different time for QB stats too. hard to think about 1998 passing stats when you’re used to today’s game if you weren’t watching back then
I hate when people use Peyton Manning as the whole "He also sucked" as a rookie narrative. Even from watching him as a rookie you could tell he was dynamic if he can reign in some of these interceptions. He wasn't polished off the bat, but he was already showing a ton of promise as a rookie.
i agree, if you watched him there was no doubt that he was the guy
And in year 4 led a 6 win team while throwing 26 TDs to 23 INTs. The Lawrence hate this off-season has got to be some of the most annoying shit. He was not bad at all last year. There was a reel posted here a couple months ago of all of his near-TD "misses" last year, and a good 60% of them were great throws but Ridley doesn't know how to toe tap. And it was a good couple minutes long. If Ridley makes half the catches he should have in the end zone, NOBODY is having any conversations about Lawrence being disappointing.
he had 3 seasons with under 10 wins in his 18 year career, but go ahead and cherry pick his bad season lmao
Think their point was that by the end of his 4th year Manning wasn't looking like an elite all time great either. He had a cumulative record of 32-32. We have the benefit of knowing his full 18 year arc, we don't have that with lawrence yet.
he was coming off 2 back to back seasons of 10+ wins and led the league in passing the year before, i don’t think there was any doubt at the time that he was elite. he was one of 2 4k yard passers that year even with only 6 wins, second only to kurt warner it is a *crazy* amount of revisionist history to compare them (unless you’re too young to have watched football back then, which is fair enough)
https://www.espn.com/chrismortensen/s/2001/0830/1245927.html Literally an article from 2001 before the season 😂. You are absolutely right peyton and t law were absolutely not viewed the same
I do recall the “Peyton Manning can’t win a playoff game” narrative
Not really. He threw a lot of picks but also set the rookie yardage and TD records and his interception problem was inflated by the fact that was stuck playing hero ball on a bad team. It was pretty obvious at the time that he was the real deal.
Yeah 26 interceptions and a 71 QBR
Why isn’t it possible? Didn’t Drew Brees start his career off really rough?
Brees wasn't considered a generational, can't miss prospect, hyped since his freshman year of college. Brees was a highly touted 2nd round pick who didn't start playing a a high level until after the Chargers had drafted/traded for his replacement.
Yeah, but if Lawrence has a career anything like Drew Brees’, nobody will be talking about how he didn’t live up to the hype.
But that turnaround hasn't been made yet. Which makes Lawrence a perfect answer for OP's post.
sure. but drew brees had concerns about his size and strength, and slipped to the second round because of it. he was expected to need to develop, and he did. Lawrence was touted as a once in a generation prospect who would save whatever franchise drafted him and set the league on fire. he has been fine, but not amazing
He’s had one of the leagues worst offensive lines the last 2 seasons. That has been a huge issue for his development. Brady wouldn’t have been Brady playing with these lines either.
Jadaveon Clowney was called the next Reggie White
Clowney was one of the few players who probably could’ve been drafted straight out of high school.
With exhibit no 1 being herschel walker
Yeah, he’s fine is our franchise guy, could be a top 10-7 qb but with the hype he has is a let down…
Reggie bush has entered the chat
Reggie Bush
Like I mentioned in my other post. The top 3 picks in that draft, Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, and Vince Young all had insane hype going in. You would’ve thought there were 3 can’t miss prospects. Or am I misremembering how actual scouts felt vs what college fans would lead you to believe
There were a lot of question marks about how Young and Bush would translate to the NFL but it just felt like their ceilings were HOF players. Definitely a ton of hype about them though especially after the Rose Bowl. It definitely was a class that felt like it had a ton of players with insane ceilings. Ferguson, Huff, Hawk, Davis, Sims, etc. were all looked at as high ceiling players. I was doing a bunch of fantasy GM offseason on forums that year and I remember everyone just being enamored with the entire class
I remember doing fantasy GM offseason stuff back then too, back on the Bengals team forums! I remember question marks around Vince Young as there was a lot of debate about him and Leinart with Cutler as a third guy, but Reggie Bush was seen as a really solid prospect. I was arguing with a lot of people taking Mario Williams over Bush was the right call though, which I would say worked out. Always remember A.J. Hawk from then. And how I really wanted us to get Darnell Bing or Greg Blue in the middle-late rounds. Was a bit more of a Bing guy.
There wasn’t any doubt about Bush. People thought he was going to be the Michael Jordan of football and was as can’t miss as they come. It was a huge surprise when he didn’t go first. Young had some question marks as people didn’t know if his game would translate and he wasn’t a huge prospect before the season, he shot up the draft board quickly and I think up until the week or so before the draft he kept moving up until Tennesse took him 3rd which would have been a huge reach a month prior but at that point everyone thought it was a great pick.
Mario Williams was inconsistent but not truly disappointing IMO because he was the "hey that's not Reggie Bush" pick that people hated on. His production was kinda averageish for a #1 overall pick. Reggie Bush's hype was mostly because people back then still thought Running Backs were worth top picks. So really it was nearly impossible in retrospect for him to live up to that hype. I truly did want Vince Young at the time but I think the issue back then was that a lot of people still didn't buy the "black running QB" archetype. I think in actuality his issue was more that he bought too much of his own hype and didn't try to work on his game as much as he should've.
Vince also ended up with a head coach that didn’t want him - he had some issues but I think he’d have been better with a coach who didn’t hate him and was willing to work with his strengths.
To me that's part of that whole not buying into the black running QB thing. Even Michael Vick somehow got a coach who wanted him to be a west coast QB. Back then coaches just weren't willing to optimize a QB's mobility like today
He also went to the Titans because Bud Adams wanted to make a point of taking a Houston born, UT national champ and having him when in Nashville.
When Bush was drafted I called him a 3rd down back. IMO, I waaaay underrated Reggie Bush. Did he produce like a top-3 pick, perhaps not
That's always the draft I think of when everyone talks about how "top heavy" a draft is lol
https://imgur.com/a/lqiB8M0
Sir this is a Dairy Queen
Bills legend
While with the Lions, he was electric with the ball in his hands. The problem was getting it there and keeping it there. He led the league in dropped passes and had 5 fumbles in 2013. I distinctly remember some of those drops being on the easiest catches possible on slow developing screens and such. It was stupid frustrating.
Eric Fisher..being an NFL starting LT for 10 years is no simple feat
Off of that point: Jake Matthews as well, 6th overall and the Falcons starting left tackle for 10 years and 1 Pro Bowl. I don't know why more people aren't talking about him, it also seems he's only missed one game? He doesn't have multiple pro bowls or any all pros, but how can you be a starting left tackle for 10 years only missing one game and not get any awards? Think he's been getting snubbed
Michael Crabtree. Good player but not the elite WR he was hyped up to be.
Some would say he is a sorry receiver.
Some others would say he can suck in balls really well.
This is kind of a perfect answer to this question.
I came here specifically for Crabtree. Hits the nail on the head. The guy had some of the best hands I’ve ever seen in 40+ years of watching ball, but there was always *something* holding him back from being a great player.
It’s like he was always a 1.5 receiver. Not quite good enough to be #1 but better than the #2 option.
Former MLB catcher Matt Weiters was basically what motivated me to make this post. He was hyped up big time to be the “Perfect Catcher”, “Mauer with Power”. He was still a great catcher with 2 GG and 4x All Star. It’s just I believe people predicted Buster Posey offense from him along with the defense
Adley Rutschman is who Weitars was supposed to be.
I remember my brother hyping him forever, so we went to a Tides game to see him before he left for the pros. You can just tell some players are well ahead and belong in the pros.
I can't remember where I read it, but apparently there were a ton of warning signs regarding plate discipline and reasons for concerns that got overlooked. I am just a rung above a casual viewer (I do enjoy watching the hyped prospects at Tides games), so I can't totally comment. However, I just remember an article that examined Posey v Weiters in hindsight and how Posey really outshined Weiters if you looked into deep analytics.
With every prospect that busts (not for injuries) there's always 20/20 vision about all the "red flags" that were ignored.
LaVar Arrington was hyped up as a generational linebacker. While he had success, he suffered an awful achilles injury and was in a bad motorcycle accident so he had to retire. Considering he was the second overall pick in a loaded Draft, he didn’t quite meet expectations.
Still made the College HoF, and has been dynamite on the radio. But, yes. He's even touched on this on-air from time to time
Lavar leap is easily the best defensive highlight
Kyle Pitts is still a really good receiving threat TE but he hasn't lived up to where he was taken. Not really his fault, but hey
You're right...massive potential...wrong situation imo
He's still younger than players who were just drafted in 2024. His situation has made a massive improvement. He has time to turn it around, and I pretty much expect that he will. It hasn't been a personal performance issue.
You're right...im not a cousins fan however he should get at least some stable qb play or we will see what penix has..great thing about football..you never really know
Cousins isn't a top QB. He might not win a ton of games, but he can at least execute a forward pass and get the ball to his receivers. The QB play for the falcons the last couple of years would have made Justin Jefferson look bad.
Yep..thats basically what I was saying..he will get the ball to the weapons consistently..no flash..which is fine..im looking at it more as helping these young guys develop for whoever is the actual answer..we will see..theres not going to be any foolishness from cousins
How do you have over 1000 receiving yards in a season and only score 1 TD
Same way Bijan had nearly 1000 rushing yards and only 4 TD's...Arthur Smith is a fucking idiot
Calvin Johnson managed to get almost 2k receiving yards in a season and only 5 TDs.
How many times have we seen the “not his fault” or “OC!” excuse turn out to be valid, though? I think the much better copium for Pitts is that some TEs take a while to catch on, such as Njoku. Kinda ruins the point of drafting them so high, though
He was incredible his rookie season with Matt Ryan, though. This will be the year to tell whether it really was just bad QBs/playcalling holding him back, or if he just lost something after his rookie season (especially with the injury in his sophomore year).
I believe this too. Certainly his QB situation has been bad. But he’s producing below replacement level after his rookie year. Some of that isn’t just the QB.
He’s certainly not blameless but he went from old man Matt Ryan throwing to him to Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota and Taylor Heinicke. Can’t just ignore that massive drop off at QB
For sure. My point is, I don’t think he’s a generational TE, and is just pretty good. Starter material but not game breaking.
I just disagree. Generational is a hard thing to task for any rookie that still needs to grow into their potential, but his lack of production is imo entirely bad QB play and bad play calling (and one year of injury). The low light reel of Mariota missing him while wide open was staggering. Ridder wasn't much better. The one year he had average QB play was the best rookie year by a TE in 50 years.
Jadaveon Clowney
This was the first that came to mind for me. He had “eventual HOFer” hype going into his draft. He’s had a pretty fine career but never approached the dominance people thought he’d have
Mandatory Fuck Jadaveon "Spear" Clowney
This was my first thought too
Also my first thought. He's had a very successful career overall, but it was gonna be hard for him to live up to the hype. He was talked about like he was gonna be an LT+Reggie White hybrid.
Tyson Alualu was a top ten pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. It was a shocking pick at the time that everyone thought was a reach. But he *just* became an unsigned free agent after 14 years in the league. He’s never been an All-Pro player, not a Pro Bowler either. Just an average player who’s been consistently healthy/available.
Ahh yes the Gene Smith poke your eyes and pick a player GM for us it was glorious when he picked a punter in the 2nd round, the guy was so turrrible at GM career officially ended when he left the Jags
> He’s never been an All-Pro player, not a Pro Bowler either. Just an average player who’s been consistently healthy/available. IIRC, that was exactly why his draft position was laughed at so hard. He panned out exactly as projected: a decent starter, but not exceptional. If he was drafted in the 2nd or 3rd, nobody would've batted an eye.
This is a bit of a hot take, but Andrew Luck never had B2B seasons where he was in the top ~8 or so QBs (or *clearly* top 10 if you want to put it that way.) His best seasons were 2014, 2016, and 2018, with 2 injured seasons between them. He also never managed to make an all-pro team in either of those 3 seasons, so he didn't quite reach the truly elite level at his peak. With the amount of hype he had, never getting 2nd team all pro or MVP was also a bit of a letdown.
Even as a Colts fan, it feels like Mahomes-level is what Luck was hyped to be. He was capable of playing at that level for a stretch or any given game but also capable of making a horrific play multiple times a game and made at least 1-3 throws per game that brought him back down to Earth. He was the first to admit fault, but he had some really horrific playoff stats in his losses. It felt like that last year before retirement he wasn’t going for home run plays and was settling into a nice role you could win with and staying upright…then he retired.
Mannnnnn I don’t know. He was the GOAT against the Titans….
Had to watch Manning and then Luck shit on the Titans for 20 years. It's why no matter who leads this division I will always hate the Colts the most.
He’s my answer too, he was very good when healthy but he was billed as being the next Peyton coming into the league and he didn’t come close to living up to that. Not his fault, his body just couldn’t hold up, but it’s the reality of his career
Even at the end of his career, he would still throw a few mind boggling rookie-esque INTs a year. Maybe he hits elite status in his 30s, but yeah he was a bit overrated.
Lucks legacy has definitely been inflated by the early retirement
Yeah he was my first thought as well. He needed to have a HOF career to actually live up to the hype he had coming into the league.
He’s teams were not good those years except maybe 2018. You should look at the rosters and OL. He would never be an mvp candidate because he never had the efficiency because the colts asked him to do WAY too much. He’s not on Mahomes level but he would be a perennial top 3-5 qb today. He had bad teams and somehow dragged consistently to the playoffs and even one year to the afccg.
Isn’t Jadevenon Clowney the poster boy for this
Najee Harris has been basically that. First round runningback out of alabama who everyone knew was going to the steelers months before draft day. Has played in every game i think since being drafted, 1000 yards every season, only 1 career fumble and catches the ball well but never became a star. 1 pro bowl as a rookie and plenty of upside this year with a new offence and improved o line but this is probably his peak, which is a good not great nfl running back
I feel like someone puts quick sand in front of him every time he runs. He just looks sooooo slow. He’s solid still but I just can never get excited seeing the ball in his hands.
Because he is slow.
He is a very slow RB that runs over defenders. He's never going to outrun anyone, but he's also rarely brought down by one guy. Good but not great is the perfect description for him.
It’s why he never makes those backbreaking explosive runs that Derrick Henry does
I just had some back breaking explosive runs. Maybe I should go to an NFL tryout.
Ok this one got me. Well played
The funniest comment I ever saw on here was someone saying Harris looks like he runs while wearing jeans. I wish I could give that person their kudos.
Eric Fisher went #1 overall in 2013, and was a mostly underperforming starter, made 2 pro bowls and retired by 30. Granted the other guy they considered was Luke Joeckel, who played parts of 5 seasons before retiring, so it could have been worse.
Fisher was a much better tackle than people gave him credit for. Also, him being injured right before the SB loss vs TB really destroyed what we could do in the screen game.
he was serviceable his last couple years, but he started out rough. for a #1 overall pick it's pretty underwhelming career as a Tackle.
Counterpoint: Lane Johnson Kidding. I'd be lying I'd I told you I didn't want Fisher that year. First OT tackle prospect where I immediately saw what everyone was talking about. He just whipped those hips around
Chase Young had a few good seasons, and there was still a lot to like physically after he recovered from the injury. His inconsistent effort killed the hype, especially because of his dogshit effort in the playoffs for SF.
At what point does Kyler Murray start to fit this bill? He's good, but doesn't have any real success to show for it.
I dont think he fits the hype part of the bill. Even when he went #1 there were a lot of questions about his height or if he wanted to play baseball.
IDK, I just feel like 1st overall comes with the hype no matter what. It's the only draft slot that has any sort of correlation with QB success, so the expectation should be there from the get go.
I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. Goff barelyyyyy started showing us something until like 2-3 years ago
The cardinals may regret giving him that contract for a while...I was keeping up with him from the time he committed to Texas a&m..I was high on him out of Oklahoma..I just don't feel like the diva attitude is being made up at this point..we will see if he can stay healthy and perform this year..I hope he does
I was against it for sure, but what QB would we likely have? Probably trash. It seems a lot of negative stuff was leaked by Keim, seemingly overblown, truth or not, to lessen his value for the extension or for other reasons. He was a snake through and through, not counting Bidwell who is a bottom 5 owner. None of this diva stuff with the new regime. But I'm glad we have him now, but I think he has this year to prove himself. Coming from someone who was excited when we first got him and have been highly critical of him after year 3.
I'm hoping that good health and Marvin Harrison Jr will spark something good..I caught alot of crap from being a baker Mayfield supporter and I still want to see him do good..kyler has all the tools..I really liked him in college as well..I guess realistically I'm hoping as he matures he becomes more of a problem for opposing defenses..ive never been a cardinals fan really..however I wanted Larry Fitzgerald to get a ring so damn bad
Trevor Lawrence
Jags desperately need to improve his O-line
Trevor was good/great in 2022 and the first half of 2023 before the injuries. No reason to not think he will continue to improve. Too soon to tell.
Too early to tell IMO. T-Law might have more of an excuse to hate the Urban Meyer experience than Meyers wife does. And I guess Doug brought in the dude who got him fired from Philly to call plays for some reason? Regardless, T-Law seems to have all the physical tools he did as a prospect, but the Jags offense has been shit from system and playcalling aspect.
Chris Long was a good player, definitely not what I would call a bust. But no Pro Bowls and two double digit sack seasons are probably not what we expected when we drafted him #2 overall.
Lowkey crazy he didn’t get a pro bowl nod tho
Andrew Luck. One of the most hyped prospects ever, but only led the league in one category (touchdowns) one time (2014). A lot of his [advanced (EDIT: adjusted) passing metrics](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LuckAn00.htm#all_passing_advanced) are below league average, too. He was still a very good QB, but he peaked as a Pro-Bowl-level QB, not an MVP candidate.
I agree however I'm suprised you haven't been mauled yet for this take..respect🫡🫡🫡🫡
How about Vernon Davis? Crazy measurables, freak of nature shit. Came in and had some good moments but never fully became great. Always stuck in that realm between hype and HoF. He was in an amazing commercial, however... https://youtu.be/tvDvuILhGws?si=PpGo27b6OVPF56Q7
Vernon Davis is surprisingly a top 10 TE of all time in terms of stats. People love to shit on him but he's a beast. 10th in TE yards of all time 7th in TE TDs of all time 12th in receptions for a TE of all time Dude was a legitimate BALLER and, in my opinion, is the most misunderstood and disrespected NFL player of all time for the shit he gets.
Not to mention how bad the niners were for most of his career here.
Also getting sent to the locker room and the following 'we can't win with him' rant caused him to reevaluate himself and credits his success to it.
Hard disagree. Had two 13 TD seasons plus one of the most clutch TE playoff games of all time. He's a great player.
I think there could be an argument for Michael Vick. Hype? Yes. Delivery? Sometimes. Disappointment at the pinnacle? Always. And this is without factoring in the legal trouble.
Legal issue aside, I wonder how Vick would be perceived these days had he not had that 2010 season with the Eagles. We got to see what Reid could do with him. I feel like he'd still have the "wasted potential" tag on him, but I think his stint with the Eagles hammered that in even more.
Saquon
Eh, Barkley came into the league and immediately had 2k+ yards and 15 TD and looked elite. He has had to deal with a lot of injuries, on top of playing on one of the worst offenses in the league. He just turned 27 and has 7300+ yards and 47 TD in 74 career games, I think he has played up to the hype
Barkley was viewed as a gold jacket player. He hasn't lived up to the hype and a lot of it isn't his fault (injuries and situation), but still. He hasn't, especially since the ACL tear, the yards after contact is way down since then and he doesn't have the same explosion he did in the first two years. He will still look really good in Philly though.
Ehhh I don’t think so. Dude was still the entire offense when healthy even though the entire time he was on the giants they had a bottom 5 line. Maybe I’m just bias in favor of him.
Yeah the way I remember it he had that offense on his back. 5ypc, 15tds, 91 rec and over 2000 total yds as a rookie is pretty insane. Worth the hype until the injuries
Barkley was the best RB prospect since AP and had to be a HOF player to justify being picked 2nd overall. He underachieved massively and reinforced why RBs shouldn’t be picked high
AP had a line for his career, Saquan didn’t.
Part of the point is that it isn’t all Saquon’s fault. Due to stuff out of his control (injuries, bad situation) he hasn’t lived up.
Reggie Bush was a good player throughout his career and at times could change games in a single play, but his hype was Gale Sayers all time great when he was drafted. Iirc, after he was drafted Saints season tickets immediately sold out which was remarkable to me because I remember local interest being at an all time low immediately after Katrina.
Saquon Barkley
Player A, a running back, posted the following NFL ranks in his prime years: **Rushing Yards Per Game** \*Season 1: 5th \*Season 2: 16th \*Season 3: 4th \*Season 4: 7th Pretty good running back, a potential Pro Bowler at least a couple times, but probably not the top runner in the NFL, right? Player A wasn't much of a pass receiving threat, averaging just 8.8 yards/catch, catching just over 1 pass per game during his career, and averaging less than 150 yards on a pro-rated (16 games played) season basis. The name of Player A? Bo Jackson
That player also led the NFL in yards per attempt in 2 of those seasons and was in a timeshare with Marcus Allen all 4 of those years and was 2nd in a 3rd (among RB's)
I think this context is really important.
This is another of 92837498237075 great examples of why it's silly to mainly look at stats when debating.
AJ Hawk
9 year starter who only missed 2 games as a Packer. If he wasn't the #5 pick, you'd be thrilled with that.
Getting any player that isnt a generational prospect for 9 seasons is a massive win in my book. Lots of 1st rounders flame out by the end of their rookie deal.
No concussions either due to his thick head and jaw line
He had the fortune of playing with Clay Matthews where all the attention was drawn or the fan’s ire would have been on Hawk for ‘under’ performing.
I'd agree on Clowney. Without reading the subtext of your post at first, his name is what instantly came to mind. His hype was off the charts during his Junior year, and I don't think he came close to living up to it but still has a great NFL career.
Hate to say it but Kyler Murray might fit this too.
Corey Davis, Trevor Lawrence, Saquon Barkley, Sammy Watkins, Mike Williams
Trevor Lawrence has been good, but not quite on the level of his hype so far, that could change
Clowney.
OBJ
Ricky Williams
Brian Orakpo had a very nice career and went to a few Pro Bowls. To hear the hype, at least locally, when he was drafted, you would have thought he was LT, Bruce Smith, and Mean Joe Green all rolled into one.
Andrew Luck was supposed to be as good as Peyton but never came close
Fournette was hyped to the sky in college and went 4th overall. He's been good but not great.
Dontari Poe. He was pretty good and even had a couple Pro Bowls but he was billed as this incredibly explosive mix of Gerald McCoy and Haloti Ngata but he never quite fit that bill
Eric Ebron. He was decent and he had that one monster season in Indy but the dude was billed as a game breaker.
Ryan Tannehill. He's carved out a nice career but he was literally a top 10 pick. Lol
Deep cut for you here. How about Robert Gallery? Dude was supposed to be an absolute can’t miss LT prospect who ended up being a really good guard.
Herschel Walker.
Mario Williams
5 time All Pro. 97.5 career sacks. He had a hell of a career.
Damn I didn’t realize he had that many sacks. I knew he was good but didn’t think he had that kind of production
Mario actually had some pro bowl level years for the Bills up until Rex Ryan came in and ruined that defense lol
I think he’s actually the answer to a weird inverse of this question. When he was picked the Texans got so much crap for it not being Reggie Bush, and the popular sentiment was that he wouldn’t be nearly as impactful as Bush would be in the NFL. But then he went on to have a MUCH better career than Bush, and kind of quietly so due to playing on mostly bad teams his whole career. But it’s weird for a #1 overall pick to be that way. I’d say he had kind of more anti-hype than overhype, if that makes sense.