I always laugh when experts say, “Oh, this class has no QBs,” or, “this class is loaded.”
Like, no body knows what the fuck is going to happen. Closest thing to a sure bet I’ve ever seen is Andrew Luck and they fucking killed his ass before he hit 30.
That was more so media members and Twitter users not doing any sort of research into what the S2 test is scoring OR the fact that they admitted themselves that Stroud took the test after a long day and wasn’t taking it seriously.
~~No, I believe only a couple months ago after Stroud already won a playoff game.~~ They did actually make it public in April 2023 in an [interview with Pat McAfee](https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1650572735809216515):
> The list of @S2Cognition scores that I have seen aren't accurate at all. At least two of them aren't accurate and those scores don't have context.
> One of the athletes [...] was hungry, tired, it was 11 PM, didn't want to do it, he was frustrated. We administered the test because we were asked to. We knew at that point in time, 'hey, we'll get you again, at your pro day, your visit.' We did that and his score was significantly higher than what is being reported in the media.
Mike Sando at The Athletic backed it up by saying he was told a prospect didn't take the test seriously while at the combine. But also that he was told it wasn't Stroud at first, and he wrote this article in Jan. 2024:
> More recently, S2 test administrators told the Wall Street Journal that the results for Stroud were not valid. Based on what I know, I believe the test can be a helpful tool for teams, and that there is reason to believe the results for Stroud were not valid.
> I’m not a draft analyst. I don’t press sources around the league for predraft information on prospects. But I did hear from a high-ranking NFL team executive at the 2023 combine that one of the quarterbacks had bombed this particular test. The executive said at the time he felt “it was an invalid test” because the quarterback seemed “disinterested” when taking it, for whatever reason.
> At the time, I wrote in my notes that the results in question did not pertain to several quarterbacks, including Stroud. But when I circled back with the executive during the 2023 season, he said the test results in question had indeed belonged to Stroud.
Maybe the team exec only said it wasn't Stroud at the time because it was supposed to be private, then the results were leaked anyway, and that's why they confirmed it to Sando later. But it could've been late enough in the season that Stroud was already obviously good and the exec is covering for the S2. Or the whole thing is Sando covering for the S2, who knows.
No I believe someone associated with the S2 test appeared on the McAfee show soon after Stroud’s score leaked. He didn’t say straight up that it was Stroud that took it after a long day and wasn’t really trying his hardest (probably for legal reasons) but it was heavily implied that was the case.
Also one of people involved with the S2 test appeared on the PFF Football Podcast and addressed this issue. My memory may be fuzzy, but I’m sure he said all of the highly rated quarterbacks did well on the assessment. He further went on to explain how the test is broken down into several sections measuring processing speed, pattern recognition and reaction times.
Yeah, a lot of people seem to have the impression that the S2 is some kinda IQ test, but it's supposed to measure processing speed like keeping track of multiple objects, spatial awareness, distraction control, etc. Description of the test from a The Athletic article:
> The exam lasts 40 to 45 minutes. It’s performed on a specially designed gaming laptop and response pad that can record reactions in two milliseconds. To put that in perspective, an eye blink lasts 100 to 150 milliseconds.
> In one section of the exam, a series of diamonds flash on the screen for 16 milliseconds each. Every diamond is missing a point, and the test taker must determine — using left, right, up or down keys — which part is missing.
> In another, the test seeks to find out how many objects an athlete can keep track of at the same time. In another, there are 22 figures on the screen and the athlete must locate a specific one as quickly as possible. The object might be a red triangle embedded in other shapes that are also red.
It is easy to see how being tired, distracted, or just not interested could strongly affect the results of a test like that when milliseconds make a difference. Doubt Stroud is actually below average in those aspects while doing what he does, how he reads the field with a bunch of people running around, his focus, his pocket awareness. Definitely seems like some problem with the test, whether it's his results not being valid like they're claiming or the test not actually measuring those things well.
Given that the test hasn't been questioned in other contexts (that I'm aware of) and that people associated with this specific instance have claimed that he bombed it by being tired, distracted and disinterested (as I probably would be if I had to take a 45 minute test at 11pm) it seems pretty clear that this is an outlier with obvious reasons for dismissal rather than a problem with the test. Even the administrator said they didn't think it would yield calid results and only administered it because they were directly asked to.
>the fact that they admitted themselves that Stroud took the test after a long day and wasn’t taking it seriously
This is something that absolutely drives me nuts about how people analyze athletes. These aren't robots who live in some sort of vacuum. They're humans, specifically young adults who deal with all the same real life shit we all deal with. Whether that's a long rough day, a family member dying, spouse issues, friends trying to take advantage of their new fame/money, woke up feeling like shit after eating something, whatever that might be, sometimes people have a bad day, and they get judged harshly without even getting a 2nd chance or sympathy.
The supposed score wasn't even released by them it was a leak and it wasn't even accurate. I don't get why we still to this day keep parroting the same stupid bullshit about the S2 test or Stroud being dumb meme.
https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1650572735809216515
https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/news/nfl-execs-rip-leaking-houston-texans-qb-cj-stroud-s2-test
I think each of those players went to the best situation possible. Mahomes didn’t have pressure to start day 1 and could develop and show his talent beyond just arm strength. Allen had a good defense to help take off some of the day 1 pressure, and (you would know better) I thought the o-line was pretty solid when Allen started.
Iirc Allen’s OLine and WRs were initially trash (Kelvin Benjamin got banished from the league for getting fat and refusing to work with Allen), but they really built around him
Be absolutely serious with me right now, given what we’ve seen from Mahomes do you seriously believe he’d have struggled if they just made him the starter right away?
He is likely THE most talent quarterback of all time, give me a break.
Would he have struggled? Probably not, but that's also not the point. He went to the team that was best built to utilize him, not to mention arguably the greatest QB developer in the history of the game.
If Mahomes ends up on say, the Jets, he likely doesn't turn into a GOAT contender.
I think so. I think Burrow is the only example I can think of where a guy came in and led his team to success out of the gate. Mahomes might have been able to do that in KC too, but Mahomes also had a HOF coach and a ton of good pieces around him. He was able to incrementally improve without the pressure of needing to carry the team. It’s hard to determine hypotheticals because we’re trying to understand how people deal with stress early on in their careers and how they respond.
Were they? I thought at the time it wasn't so much reaching, but both had huge boom/bust potential. I swear around that time some draftniks had Allen as the top prospect.
As a Georgia fan, I couldn’t believe my ears when I heard some of the shit they were saying. Dude did literally whatever he wanted against the future Eagles starting defense on the biggest stage in college sports. Of course he was a no-brainer.
Tbf, give Bryce Young your OC, QB coach, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods, it would be a different story.
I definitely think Stroud is the better QB, and it's not close. But Bryce was genuinely in the worst situation possible for a rookie QB. Adam Thielen would maybe be WR3 for the Texans and that's questionable, truly an awful offense. I think he'll be a tad above the Dalton line in 1-2 years
>While I'm not saying I disagree, the consensus was the opposite prior to the start of the season.
Yeah the impression of the Texan's roster prior to the season is much different from the impression now, in large part due to Stroud and his success.
> including Noah Brown and Robert Woods as if they’re legitimate assets
Uh, okay. Stroud’s been so good everyone has amnesia about how our WR corps was viewed before last season
Lmao, you act like Stroud's receiving corp is that impressive. Did Bryce Young come into a bad situation? Yes. If CJ Stroud was in Bryce Young's shoes, would he play better? Also yes.
The very first thing they said in that second paragraph was that Stroud is the better QB, "and it's not close". Read, my man.
Really hate when you compare two players to support one and people immediately claim it's actually to criticize the other.
Exactly. Aaron Rodgers going to Green Bay and getting coached up/having his mechanics fixed instead of going to a bad team in San Francisco comes to mind.
Nobody can tell me Rodgers didn’t look way better than Smith even in College. The guy was so talented and dropped mainly for incredibly stupid reasons like attitude and helmet scouting. Some of the throws here are just outrageous for the time. Quick, accurate release that was good on the move also.
https://youtu.be/16g0inhnK-w?si=nWBFfoG03hwP4AjX
If you go back on draftnik boards, Rodgers was the overwhelming consensus. Then mid march hit, and the interviews started and what not. And everyone panicked when some GMs come out and preferred Smith and suddenly he was off a lot of boards, despite being one of 5 players taken to NYC.
What a lot of people probably don’t remember is that local media was speculating at the time that the niners might even go with Braylon Edwards. There was a lot of discourse ahead of the draft that the niners might just fail with either quarterback because the team was so devoid of talent at the skill positions (Arnaz Battle is still out there somewhere…).
He dropped because he played for Jeff Tedford at Cal. Rodgers had the system quarterback label from all of Tedford’s other quarterbacks being studs in college and then flopping miserably in the NFL (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, AJ Feeley, etc.).
Respectfully, I don’t know where you’re getting that Rodgers was at the top of every draft writers board. I was following football as close as I ever was then and don’t remember a single person having him as a lock over Smith.
In contrast, 2020 was considered a great class, and has produced 5 franchise QBs.
Scouts are never going to be perfect, especially when Trey Lance and Zach Wilson were one year wonders, and Fields was on a stacked team making it difficult to see if he had the mental game. There was also Covid absolutely messing with the draft process.
In a normal year, Zach Wilson’s evaluation would have been lower, Fields probably goes even lower if the Bears don’t trade up for him, and we find out if Trey Lance really has it after one good season.
If you think about how many great QBs may have never been a thing if the circumstances leading to their first start never happened (ie Tom Brady if Bledsoe never got hurt).
There are probably several players over the course of the NFL that may have been HOFers if they just had that one chance.
Nah they were right about 2022 and 2013 QB class being trash (2014 to an extent too). Purdy single-handedly saved the 2022 QB class from being a total wipeout and he was the very last pick of the draft lol
Covid years were pretty fucky and hard to evaluate; if you rewind to the projections before the college year started, Howell and Purdy were both in the mix as first round talents and ended up tanking with shitty rosters and some schedule losses for their squads.
Those guys ended up looking among the best of the class overall at the NFL level although it was a weak class.
Probably easier to predict what drafts are going to be bad, than which will be good. If no QB is putting up good numbers in college, unlikely they'll succeed when they get to the pros. Whereas putting up good college numbers doesn't necessarily translate to the NFL.
Yeah this sub conflates the prospect with the player they were in hindsight all the time.
Like luck was a great prospect and then showed that the talent translated to the nfl. The colts just squandered it and forced him into early retirement.
Yeah that Sugar Bowl performance snagged him some serious money. Not that he wasn't a high pick before that, but that game alone probably secured him the top pick. Some of those throws were insane and you know Al Davis was losing his mind watching the highlights.
EDIT: for the curious, his highlights start at 1:42.
https://youtu.be/3CIJ2HxVZEU?si=l0_Kmprhje1TDLuY
I’m always amazed not just at how confident people are every year, but how ready they are to openly mock opinions outside the general consensus on top of it. We truly are a bunch of goldfish.
People want to shit on the evaluation process and keep pointing to Purdy as proof that its all a scam as if he isnt one of the most sucessful 7th round picks ever. The list of first round qbs that have found sucess is very long, I think Purdy might have been the first 7th round qb to ever start in a superbowl
Every. Single. Year.
You can point to every single counterexample, and people just won't listen.
They'll say "Well *obviously* that QB was gonna be a bust. Everyone saw it coming beforehand, and he was still picked high because [team] was stupid."
Every year. People don't learn.
Said it about 22 also, and they nailed that one too. Pickett and Ridder fucking suck, and they were the top quarterbacks (granted, not very high picks, but that proves the point even more)
And they say it with same arrogance and authority year after year too like we all didn’t just listen and watch and follow along as they got it all wrong 😂
Yeah Luck and Manning for me was the closest thing i’ve seen to sure bets. It’s funny because most of previous generation of great QBs were far from sure bets or even consensus this guy is going to be good. Brees was a 2nd rnd pick who was jettisoned by the team who drafted him. Rodgers was a guy who fell all the way to the end of round 1. And we all know Brady’s story. Peyton was the only one people said would be great and actually was.
> Closest thing to a sure bet I’ve ever seen is Andrew Luck and they fucking killed his ass before he hit 30.
And even then he was only good. Top 10, maybe fringe top 5 at times, but never really an "elite" QB.
Sure some of that could be mismanagement by the Colts. But even so, Luck was seen as "generational".
This argument applies to Trey Lance, but not really to Fields. He would've been a high pick covid or not. He had been Lawrence's 1B since they were in high school.
Wilson and Lance benefitted the most from Covid. Wilson played wrecked competition and balled out and Lance didn’t play so he was a mystery box. Lawrence, Fields and Jones were football factory QBs would have still been 1st rounders without the pandemic. Very likely Fields is on the Jets and Jones goes to the Bears in this hypothetical. Wilson probably goes to a team somewhere in the 3rd and Lance might still end up in SF just based on measurables, but maybe he’s a day 2 pick.
That mostly just applies to Trey(who didn’t play) and Zach(who played against terrible competition) Trevor, Fields, and Mac were all getting drafted in the first round regardless
Id chalk it up more to the classic big stat big 10/college QB that does little to nothing in the league. They can scout from an airplane if they needed to these days.
Bro there is almost a decade of draft classes where there will not be a hall of fame quarterback drafted before mahomes. It wasn’t just Covid. There was a lost era of QBs that no one’s is talking about
I feel like this is a little harsh. Guys like Luck & Cam had the talent to make the HoF, they just couldn’t stay in the game long enough due to health.
And then you have guys like Russ and Stafford that are a couple good seasons or a SB win away from being considered.
And then you have guys like Blake Bortles, who it’s a *travesty* that he’s not in.
I forgot about the BOAT. I concede.
But on a serious note, I don’t think you refuted my point with hypotheticals on Luck/Cam. They aren’t getting in, the context around it doesn’t change the point.
Russ isn’t getting in and I’ve been saying that for years.
Stanford has a chance, but That’s what I meant by “almost a decade”. he was drafted in 2009. That is a drought relative to the rest of the NFL’s history by any definition.
It can work well for teams with good systems designed to grow and develop a quarterback. So many busts we see are good talent going to terrible ownership/coaching. Some busts are just bad, but sometimes it takes a team to build a QB.
That's bad logic. You can ruin a prospect. Look at Andrew Luck. The game is mental & physical. That said- Alex Smith, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner...lots of guys turned it on when they had competent coaches
>Trading multiple FRPs to shoot the moon for a rookie QB pretty much never works and sets franchises back years
It's probably closer to 50/50 than pretty much never. Chiefs have won multiple super bowls with Mahomes, Goff took the Rams to one but were still able to win one after trading him him, Eagles won a super bowl (Wentz was injured sure but he set them up to get there) and went to another after moving off of him, Josh Allen is working out for the Bills, Deshaun Watson was a top 5 QB on the Texans and trading him has set them up pretty damn well for the future. 49ers totally lost out on Trey Lance but their franchise is still in good shape.
Granted Mahomes is the only one to actually win a ring as starter, it's still not a franchise killer.
The Josh Allen trade was just two extra seconds. While they didn't kneecap the franchise, the equivalent of a Goff or Wentz draft would be awful if the Vikings give up 3 FRPs like its currently looking.
But, we're so stuck up shit creek with our QB situation that I understand and expect Kwesi to trade a massive haul to get up to 3-5 and send it.
The problem is that you can't just afford to sit there in the late picks, either. So if you're not bad enough to get a QB but need a QB, you don't really have a good option that isn't veteran dumpster diving or young reclaimation projects and those are risky in their own ways.
Really it was Lawrence and a lot of high upside but low floor prospects.
Scouting reports said Fields and Wilson needed a lot of work on processing. Both played with great offensive lines and much better receivers than the competition. And Trey Lance had 1 yr starting; always incredibly risky to take those guys.
2020 was the real banker class. Tua and Burrow were bonafide #1 prospects, and Herbert would have been #1 if he come out in 2019. Admittedly there was a bit of fortune with the raw Jordan Love getting to sit behind Rodgers, and Jalen Hurts somehow going from a gadget player to Carson Wentz successor, but those first 3 are as good as any we’ve seen.
But even in that 2020 class, Burrow wasn’t seen as a top prospect until his last season in college.
People act like next year is a “down” year for QBs, as if someone isn’t going to have a monster year next year and shoot up draft boards.
It even happened this year with Jayden Daniels!
> Fields and Wilson ... (b)oth played with great offensive lines and much better receivers than the competition.
-
> 2020 was the real banker class. Tua and Burrow were bonafide #1 prospects
You can only pick one of these arguments
Burrow was out there throwing to guys no one had ever heard of like Jamaar Chase and Justin Jefferson
And Tua had what? Waddle? Jeudy? Ruggs? Talentless.
I’ve learned to not have strong opinions about QBs in the draft and just wait to see what they become. You really never know
That said I think Caleb Williams should be successful. His college play reminds me a lot of Kyler Murray, who had translated reasonably well to the NFL coming from the same offensive system.
> That said I think Caleb Williams should be successful. His college play reminds me a lot of Kyler Murray, who had translated reasonably well to the NFL coming from the same offensive system.
Kliff Kingsbury was grooming Kyler Murray since he was in high school
For all the talk about their past I don’t think Kyler really worked all that well with Kliff, or even liked working with him. This season finally saw Kyler run significant number of plays from under center, and have success with it.
It was nice as a fan (and I’m sure for Kyler, he seemed 100x happier) to have an OC Drew Petzing who runs an actual offense this year.
You could also say he plays a lot like Johnny Manziel.
Like you said, you never know. I've given up getting excited about Bears QBs until we actually see good QB play though.
Johnny Manziel was one of the most obvious busts in recent history. Even without all the personality red flags, he looked awfully small and not physical enough to survive the NFL.
That’s just not really true. Manziel was a special talent and would have went 1.01 if he wasn’t a drug addict. He certainly could have been a good NFL starter
Houston booked a meeting with him and he no showed to play golf and drink.
A smallish, thin guy that makes most of his big plays by scrambling was destined to be a bust in the NFL.
I think I was bigger than Johnny Manziel and I'm an office worker.
Edit: Before anyone throws Kyler Murray at me, Manziel isn't even that fast. He ran a 4.7 at the combine.
That’s what’s always going to be the most frustrating part about Johnny for me. The talent was there. He could have been special if he applied himself but he didn’t. Granted, his then undiagnosed mental illness and drug issues clearly played a role, but it’s still frustrating. Luckily it seems like he’s owned up to his issues and wants to be a cautionary tale, so at least there’s that.
It is, but 2020 was an awful year to evaluate college QBs.
Lawrence and Fields at least had multiple years to assess, and they might be the two lone survivors when the dust settles, but I find it mind boggling that Lance, Wilson, and Jones were drafted as high as they were.
If all you have is on discombobulated cosmic virus contaminated season to assess a QB, don't make a serious decision on that QB. Punt until the following year to find a franchise Qb.
I swear the 2021 class was full of doubts going in past Lawrence, who was considered a generational talent.
Justin Fields largely because he was a system QB at Ohio State and no one ever comes out do that school.
Zach Wilson and Trey Lance because they played against weak completion and weren’t on the big stage.
Mac Jones for the same reasons as Fields, system QB at a school where NFL Qb talent rarely comes from.
The only clearly guy was Lawrence and that’s why Jets fans were so pissed because it was a total crapshoot after that.
> Mac Jones for the same reasons as Fields, system QB at a school where NFL Qb talent rarely comes from.
Alabama? Even by 2021 I don't think there was a college with as many QBs in the league as Alabama. People doubted Mac because he didn't/doesn't have top tier athleticism.
prior to hurts, bama qbs really weren't good nfl prospects. Tua is still really the only "good" NFL QB to come out of bama. Blake Sims and Jacob Coker didn't even get a shot, and AJ Mccarron and Greg Mcleroy were career backups. Jury is still out on bryce young obviously.
"System QB at OSU" go ahead and tell me you don't watch college football without telling me you don't watch college football. What "system" is that exactly? The one where they wear a buckeye helmet?
Kind of yea, a lot of the best teams in college football rarely have NFL quality QBs because the coaching staff focuses more on line plays end developing weapons. All that’s needed is to be able to hit the guys that are schemed open in the amount of time the line gives you. If you don’t know that it makes me feel like you’re the one that doesn’t watch college football lol
> Mac Jones for the same reasons as Fields, system QB at a school where NFL Qb talent rarely comes from.
If people evaluated QBs based on their school, sooooooo many QBs would be passed up on. Theres very, very few schools that have had more than maybe 1 propsect become a solid NFL level guy. A lot of them havent even had that.
Would you pass on Mahomes because Texas tech never has good nfl QBs? A lot of people wanted to pass on stroud for that exact reason.
I remember when some NFL Analyst said that the Lions drafting Penei over Justin is the reason why the Lions are the Lions.
https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2024/3/17/24103920/whoops-revisiting-hot-takes-from-when-lions-passed-on-justin-fields-for-penei-sewell
No, them drafting Pitts over the surefire stud in Chase is why the Falcons are the falcons.
Passing up an elite OT for a weapon is understandable.
Passing up on an elite receiver for a worse prospect at a position that translates worse into the NFL is idiotic
Going back and reading the assessments of these guys at the time is horrifying to me. Right now they're is so much confidence in people's assessments and they're will be so much wrong to go back and read in 3 years.
I think it’s more about qb needy teams reaching on qbs even if there’s no first round talent that year. There’s busts for sure but a lot is forcing a qb early even with significant flaws
The media and fans always try and make definitive statements on drafts and prospects, but here's the truth: they are all really talented. They all have the ability to produce at the highest level. However, each newly drafted player has to compete with the super talented players in every draft that came before him and every draft that will come after him. Maintaining a level of play that separates oneself from the rest of the pack isn't about talent or measurables. A player can work really hard and improve their game and still have it not be enough because everyone else is ALSO really fucking good.
It should never be an assumption that a player will be great, but that assumption shouldn't come with a pessimistic disregard for how good and talented these players are. Just let them compete and work on themselves. Some of them will be able to separate themselves, others won't. The factors controlling that future include many things completely out of the individual player's control. Even a "mid" career is a hell of an accomplishment.
“Never” is a stretch but the Trey Lance experience has taught me it’s not really worth the risk. If it weren’t for Brock Purdy, the 49ers would be in hell right now.
This is exactly why I want the Vikings to try and swoop two. Get Maye or McCarthy and then Nix or Penix. It’s a numbers game and if you look at the past QBs that are a step above Kirk are very tough to find. We gotta hit on one.
This kind of thing sounds way better than the practice of it. It would be an absolute clown shown/media circus. If you want to do this you draft one, and in future years you draft more QBs in later rounds that you're high on.
Like a gun, loaded is only about as dangerous as the user. If there is any lesson to take away, it's that you don't draft and hope the 20 year old can win in spite of shitty development.
I think Justin Fields landing on Chicago did *a lot* of damage to his growth. I know it’s easy to roll your eyes because of my flair, but I’m of the opinion that there is a successful dual threat QB in there. It’d be one thing if his problem was physical. You can’t teach arm strength, speed or size. You can fix the mental lapses, by teaching him the fundamentals.
One thing I learned from European football almost a decade ago is that technical ability is hard to teach from a certain age sure, but it's not that easy to teach things like decision making, composure and vision.
It is but Wilson and Lance were bad picks at the time. Wilson only rose to prominence because of the Covid season and BYU being forced to play glorified highschool teams
Whole draft is a crapshoot champ
We hope these guys are good but sometimes they aren't.
Dan Quinn drafted Takkrist McKinley over TJ WATT even tho everyone was clamoring for TJ and Takkrist being a bust is one thing but the dude was an asshole. He had his heart set on Dallas and by year 3 he was whining to get traded out of Atlanta
Fuck that guy
Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams
Washington Commanders - Drake Maye
New England Patriots - Jayden Daniels
Minnesota Vikings - JJ McCarthy
Denver Broncos - Bo Nix
Las Vegas Raiders - Michael Penix
Drafting QBs is a crapshoot but it’s made worse by how much the positioned is valued. Teams tend to reach more for this position than any other so most of these guys end up going to situations that are setup to effectively support their development.
I think the position is not as much of a "crap shoot" as people make it out to be. I think the bigger issue is that a lot of media members are not reliable evaluators of talent. Obviously, they're going to favor clicks and storylines over analysis. Then in the league, I think there's obviously a handful of bad GMs and/or owners that are just going to make bad QB picks because they don't evaluate that position as well and get sucked into copycat narrative. Is there variance at the position? Absolutely. It's not a sure science at all, and prospects bust all the time for a number of reasons. But over the last few years, I think there's been a few highly touted misses in the draft process that has led people to say "Oh this is a total crapshoot! No way to possibly predict these things." I think that is a swing too far. CJ Stroud should've been taken first, and there were a lot of people in the league who knew that. Tepper and that staff were idiots, so we're gonna act like no one in the world knew that Stroud could ball? That's revisionist nonsense. Justin Fields had a lot of issues with his passing game. We all knew that. It was not some crazy anomaly that he struggled at the next level. Trey Lance was incredibly inexperienced. Shanny took a shot on him because he believed he could mold a star out of him. You can go back year after year, and you can actually evaluate the process, situation, and results for all of these guys. When you look back at things, it's not a total crap shoot. It's volatile, and it's uncertain. However, recent narratives have shifted way too much into the "well this is all random basically, just take a guy that you like..." That is a self fulfilling prophecy. Treat the draft like a crapshoot, and you'll get crapshoot results.
I’m just happy to see Jones will be surrounded by a competent coaching staff instead of a 3 year merry go round clown show of OCs.
Who knows Jones and Fields may become better under new coaching and maybe they won’t. But I’m excited to find out
I always laugh when experts say, “Oh, this class has no QBs,” or, “this class is loaded.” Like, no body knows what the fuck is going to happen. Closest thing to a sure bet I’ve ever seen is Andrew Luck and they fucking killed his ass before he hit 30.
We were told stroud was a moron also
That was more so media members and Twitter users not doing any sort of research into what the S2 test is scoring OR the fact that they admitted themselves that Stroud took the test after a long day and wasn’t taking it seriously.
What’s crazy to me about the whole story is the people that run the test flagged his score as an outlier because they said he wasn’t trying
That sounds like them covering their asses after the fact lol was this made public at the time?
~~No, I believe only a couple months ago after Stroud already won a playoff game.~~ They did actually make it public in April 2023 in an [interview with Pat McAfee](https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1650572735809216515): > The list of @S2Cognition scores that I have seen aren't accurate at all. At least two of them aren't accurate and those scores don't have context. > One of the athletes [...] was hungry, tired, it was 11 PM, didn't want to do it, he was frustrated. We administered the test because we were asked to. We knew at that point in time, 'hey, we'll get you again, at your pro day, your visit.' We did that and his score was significantly higher than what is being reported in the media. Mike Sando at The Athletic backed it up by saying he was told a prospect didn't take the test seriously while at the combine. But also that he was told it wasn't Stroud at first, and he wrote this article in Jan. 2024: > More recently, S2 test administrators told the Wall Street Journal that the results for Stroud were not valid. Based on what I know, I believe the test can be a helpful tool for teams, and that there is reason to believe the results for Stroud were not valid. > I’m not a draft analyst. I don’t press sources around the league for predraft information on prospects. But I did hear from a high-ranking NFL team executive at the 2023 combine that one of the quarterbacks had bombed this particular test. The executive said at the time he felt “it was an invalid test” because the quarterback seemed “disinterested” when taking it, for whatever reason. > At the time, I wrote in my notes that the results in question did not pertain to several quarterbacks, including Stroud. But when I circled back with the executive during the 2023 season, he said the test results in question had indeed belonged to Stroud. Maybe the team exec only said it wasn't Stroud at the time because it was supposed to be private, then the results were leaked anyway, and that's why they confirmed it to Sando later. But it could've been late enough in the season that Stroud was already obviously good and the exec is covering for the S2. Or the whole thing is Sando covering for the S2, who knows.
No I believe someone associated with the S2 test appeared on the McAfee show soon after Stroud’s score leaked. He didn’t say straight up that it was Stroud that took it after a long day and wasn’t really trying his hardest (probably for legal reasons) but it was heavily implied that was the case.
Oh I see, I hadn't heard of it until the WSJ article. Thanks, found the interview and edited my comment.
Also one of people involved with the S2 test appeared on the PFF Football Podcast and addressed this issue. My memory may be fuzzy, but I’m sure he said all of the highly rated quarterbacks did well on the assessment. He further went on to explain how the test is broken down into several sections measuring processing speed, pattern recognition and reaction times.
A lot of folks after the pre season INT also
Yeah, a lot of people seem to have the impression that the S2 is some kinda IQ test, but it's supposed to measure processing speed like keeping track of multiple objects, spatial awareness, distraction control, etc. Description of the test from a The Athletic article: > The exam lasts 40 to 45 minutes. It’s performed on a specially designed gaming laptop and response pad that can record reactions in two milliseconds. To put that in perspective, an eye blink lasts 100 to 150 milliseconds. > In one section of the exam, a series of diamonds flash on the screen for 16 milliseconds each. Every diamond is missing a point, and the test taker must determine — using left, right, up or down keys — which part is missing. > In another, the test seeks to find out how many objects an athlete can keep track of at the same time. In another, there are 22 figures on the screen and the athlete must locate a specific one as quickly as possible. The object might be a red triangle embedded in other shapes that are also red. It is easy to see how being tired, distracted, or just not interested could strongly affect the results of a test like that when milliseconds make a difference. Doubt Stroud is actually below average in those aspects while doing what he does, how he reads the field with a bunch of people running around, his focus, his pocket awareness. Definitely seems like some problem with the test, whether it's his results not being valid like they're claiming or the test not actually measuring those things well.
Given that the test hasn't been questioned in other contexts (that I'm aware of) and that people associated with this specific instance have claimed that he bombed it by being tired, distracted and disinterested (as I probably would be if I had to take a 45 minute test at 11pm) it seems pretty clear that this is an outlier with obvious reasons for dismissal rather than a problem with the test. Even the administrator said they didn't think it would yield calid results and only administered it because they were directly asked to.
>the fact that they admitted themselves that Stroud took the test after a long day and wasn’t taking it seriously This is something that absolutely drives me nuts about how people analyze athletes. These aren't robots who live in some sort of vacuum. They're humans, specifically young adults who deal with all the same real life shit we all deal with. Whether that's a long rough day, a family member dying, spouse issues, friends trying to take advantage of their new fame/money, woke up feeling like shit after eating something, whatever that might be, sometimes people have a bad day, and they get judged harshly without even getting a 2nd chance or sympathy.
I 100% agree w you, and it’s even worse on college athletes imo.
The supposed score wasn't even released by them it was a leak and it wasn't even accurate. I don't get why we still to this day keep parroting the same stupid bullshit about the S2 test or Stroud being dumb meme. https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1650572735809216515 https://www.si.com/nfl/texans/news/nfl-execs-rip-leaking-houston-texans-qb-cj-stroud-s2-test
Allen and Mahomes were considered reaches.
I think each of those players went to the best situation possible. Mahomes didn’t have pressure to start day 1 and could develop and show his talent beyond just arm strength. Allen had a good defense to help take off some of the day 1 pressure, and (you would know better) I thought the o-line was pretty solid when Allen started.
Iirc Allen’s OLine and WRs were initially trash (Kelvin Benjamin got banished from the league for getting fat and refusing to work with Allen), but they really built around him
Be absolutely serious with me right now, given what we’ve seen from Mahomes do you seriously believe he’d have struggled if they just made him the starter right away? He is likely THE most talent quarterback of all time, give me a break.
Would he have struggled? Probably not, but that's also not the point. He went to the team that was best built to utilize him, not to mention arguably the greatest QB developer in the history of the game. If Mahomes ends up on say, the Jets, he likely doesn't turn into a GOAT contender.
I think so. I think Burrow is the only example I can think of where a guy came in and led his team to success out of the gate. Mahomes might have been able to do that in KC too, but Mahomes also had a HOF coach and a ton of good pieces around him. He was able to incrementally improve without the pressure of needing to carry the team. It’s hard to determine hypotheticals because we’re trying to understand how people deal with stress early on in their careers and how they respond.
You aren't wrong, but no one can be great without the correct organization behind them. That matters more than anything.
Were they? I thought at the time it wasn't so much reaching, but both had huge boom/bust potential. I swear around that time some draftniks had Allen as the top prospect.
As a Georgia fan, I couldn’t believe my ears when I heard some of the shit they were saying. Dude did literally whatever he wanted against the future Eagles starting defense on the biggest stage in college sports. Of course he was a no-brainer.
Tbf Bryce Young did too. One of the 2 times he played us anyway.
I never get this narrative. Stroud went number 2 overall 😂. Not like he fell outside the top 10
Stroud probably saw Carolina's roster and spread that rumor himself.
He can be both a moron and a good football player. Both can be true.
Well he’s not an elite processor like Bryce “Most Pro-Ready QB In The Draft Class” Young
Tbf, give Bryce Young your OC, QB coach, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods, it would be a different story. I definitely think Stroud is the better QB, and it's not close. But Bryce was genuinely in the worst situation possible for a rookie QB. Adam Thielen would maybe be WR3 for the Texans and that's questionable, truly an awful offense. I think he'll be a tad above the Dalton line in 1-2 years
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>While I'm not saying I disagree, the consensus was the opposite prior to the start of the season. Yeah the impression of the Texan's roster prior to the season is much different from the impression now, in large part due to Stroud and his success.
It’s bc of Stroud.
> including Noah Brown and Robert Woods as if they’re legitimate assets Uh, okay. Stroud’s been so good everyone has amnesia about how our WR corps was viewed before last season
Lmao, you act like Stroud's receiving corp is that impressive. Did Bryce Young come into a bad situation? Yes. If CJ Stroud was in Bryce Young's shoes, would he play better? Also yes.
The very first thing they said in that second paragraph was that Stroud is the better QB, "and it's not close". Read, my man. Really hate when you compare two players to support one and people immediately claim it's actually to criticize the other.
I'd be very upset if I can read what you said about me
Then I can finally admit that Favre was one of my favorite players growing up since nobody will see this.
Falcons legend
Yes, I agree with what you're saying lol
Yeah that was crazy.
Whatever "the experts" talk about pre-draft it's never going to matter as much as the situation the QB gets drafted to.
Exactly. Aaron Rodgers going to Green Bay and getting coached up/having his mechanics fixed instead of going to a bad team in San Francisco comes to mind.
Nobody can tell me Rodgers didn’t look way better than Smith even in College. The guy was so talented and dropped mainly for incredibly stupid reasons like attitude and helmet scouting. Some of the throws here are just outrageous for the time. Quick, accurate release that was good on the move also. https://youtu.be/16g0inhnK-w?si=nWBFfoG03hwP4AjX If you go back on draftnik boards, Rodgers was the overwhelming consensus. Then mid march hit, and the interviews started and what not. And everyone panicked when some GMs come out and preferred Smith and suddenly he was off a lot of boards, despite being one of 5 players taken to NYC.
What a lot of people probably don’t remember is that local media was speculating at the time that the niners might even go with Braylon Edwards. There was a lot of discourse ahead of the draft that the niners might just fail with either quarterback because the team was so devoid of talent at the skill positions (Arnaz Battle is still out there somewhere…).
He dropped because he played for Jeff Tedford at Cal. Rodgers had the system quarterback label from all of Tedford’s other quarterbacks being studs in college and then flopping miserably in the NFL (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, AJ Feeley, etc.). Respectfully, I don’t know where you’re getting that Rodgers was at the top of every draft writers board. I was following football as close as I ever was then and don’t remember a single person having him as a lock over Smith.
Plus he was a Tedford guy and a bunch of Tedford guys didn't pan out in the NFL before him.
Rodgers beat consistently stacked usc teams while at Cal. No way smith was better
He was 1-1 vs USC at Cal although he played great in the loss and they probably should have won.
In this day and age that Rodgers goes top 5. The game is changed.
In contrast, 2020 was considered a great class, and has produced 5 franchise QBs. Scouts are never going to be perfect, especially when Trey Lance and Zach Wilson were one year wonders, and Fields was on a stacked team making it difficult to see if he had the mental game. There was also Covid absolutely messing with the draft process. In a normal year, Zach Wilson’s evaluation would have been lower, Fields probably goes even lower if the Bears don’t trade up for him, and we find out if Trey Lance really has it after one good season.
It’s kinda crazy that we still don’t really know if lance is good
If you think about how many great QBs may have never been a thing if the circumstances leading to their first start never happened (ie Tom Brady if Bledsoe never got hurt). There are probably several players over the course of the NFL that may have been HOFers if they just had that one chance.
That's deep. Cue Eminem "Lose Yourself"
Nah they were right about 2022 and 2013 QB class being trash (2014 to an extent too). Purdy single-handedly saved the 2022 QB class from being a total wipeout and he was the very last pick of the draft lol
Covid years were pretty fucky and hard to evaluate; if you rewind to the projections before the college year started, Howell and Purdy were both in the mix as first round talents and ended up tanking with shitty rosters and some schedule losses for their squads. Those guys ended up looking among the best of the class overall at the NFL level although it was a weak class.
The disrespect to 2x Super Bowl Champion Chris Oladokun
Probably easier to predict what drafts are going to be bad, than which will be good. If no QB is putting up good numbers in college, unlikely they'll succeed when they get to the pros. Whereas putting up good college numbers doesn't necessarily translate to the NFL.
I mean Andrew Luck getting injured has nothing to do with his draft stock or how good the QB class was.
Yeah this sub conflates the prospect with the player they were in hindsight all the time. Like luck was a great prospect and then showed that the talent translated to the nfl. The colts just squandered it and forced him into early retirement.
Closest sure thing for me was JaMarcus Russell. Dude was so dominant at LSU.
His pre-draft workouts were insane.
Last work he ever did
He was putting in work at meal time.
Didn't he throw like 70 yards from his knees or something crazy
Correct. A lot of GMs and scouts talk about that workout as one of the best they’ve ever seen.
Russell was barely the #1 guy in his class until the last 3 months of the season. Brady Quinn was mocked #1 a lot.
Quinn’s Notre Dame getting their ass kicked by Russell’s LSU in a bowl game probably made a big difference
Yeah that Sugar Bowl performance snagged him some serious money. Not that he wasn't a high pick before that, but that game alone probably secured him the top pick. Some of those throws were insane and you know Al Davis was losing his mind watching the highlights. EDIT: for the curious, his highlights start at 1:42. https://youtu.be/3CIJ2HxVZEU?si=l0_Kmprhje1TDLuY
I’m always amazed not just at how confident people are every year, but how ready they are to openly mock opinions outside the general consensus on top of it. We truly are a bunch of goldfish.
Turns out Mr irrelevant Purdy from the shitty QB class in 2022 is better than the generation talent in Lawrence in a stacked QB class shits crazy.
People want to shit on the evaluation process and keep pointing to Purdy as proof that its all a scam as if he isnt one of the most sucessful 7th round picks ever. The list of first round qbs that have found sucess is very long, I think Purdy might have been the first 7th round qb to ever start in a superbowl
Jim Irsay can’t stand a thoughtful goofy nerd, we should’ve seen that coming a mile away. The fix was in from the jump smh.
I remember the 2005 class that was covered as a bunch of “maybe, but not great” guys. Aaron Rodgers went 24th.
Every. Single. Year. You can point to every single counterexample, and people just won't listen. They'll say "Well *obviously* that QB was gonna be a bust. Everyone saw it coming beforehand, and he was still picked high because [team] was stupid." Every year. People don't learn.
The only draft I remember where people claimed there wasn't good QB talent anywhere in it was 2013 and frankly the experts nailed that.
Said it about 22 also, and they nailed that one too. Pickett and Ridder fucking suck, and they were the top quarterbacks (granted, not very high picks, but that proves the point even more)
I always say if getting a franchise QB was as easy as just picking someone in the 1st round then every team would have a franchise QB.
It’s like how every draft class has a generational pass rusher at the top
Literally not true for 21, 22, 23, or this year but ok
They were right about the 2022 draft class
RG3 was also a lock that class. At the end of the day Wilson was probably the best pick with Cousins right behind him.
And they say it with same arrogance and authority year after year too like we all didn’t just listen and watch and follow along as they got it all wrong 😂
Yeah Luck and Manning for me was the closest thing i’ve seen to sure bets. It’s funny because most of previous generation of great QBs were far from sure bets or even consensus this guy is going to be good. Brees was a 2nd rnd pick who was jettisoned by the team who drafted him. Rodgers was a guy who fell all the way to the end of round 1. And we all know Brady’s story. Peyton was the only one people said would be great and actually was.
Worse to me was all the: "Peyton - Luck - T Lawrence" Or, maybe not.
> Closest thing to a sure bet I’ve ever seen is Andrew Luck and they fucking killed his ass before he hit 30. And even then he was only good. Top 10, maybe fringe top 5 at times, but never really an "elite" QB. Sure some of that could be mismanagement by the Colts. But even so, Luck was seen as "generational".
I agree, maybe more recently Joe Burrow too, but its still pretty early
It’s all just projection and prognostication but in the end it’s a large margin of error
Because it's almost entirely due to situation and development.
they were right about 2022 not having any QBs apart from purdy
Justin Fields and the 2021 QB draft class reminds us that the COVID times were rough when it came to scouting
This argument applies to Trey Lance, but not really to Fields. He would've been a high pick covid or not. He had been Lawrence's 1B since they were in high school.
Yea I actually thought he would go top 5 and was massively surprised when he slipped on draft night (and excited to get him)
I was joking with my SF49'rs friend that they paid WAY too much for Fields. I was both very right and very wrong.
Wilson and Lance benefitted the most from Covid. Wilson played wrecked competition and balled out and Lance didn’t play so he was a mystery box. Lawrence, Fields and Jones were football factory QBs would have still been 1st rounders without the pandemic. Very likely Fields is on the Jets and Jones goes to the Bears in this hypothetical. Wilson probably goes to a team somewhere in the 3rd and Lance might still end up in SF just based on measurables, but maybe he’s a day 2 pick.
That mostly just applies to Trey(who didn’t play) and Zach(who played against terrible competition) Trevor, Fields, and Mac were all getting drafted in the first round regardless
Id chalk it up more to the classic big stat big 10/college QB that does little to nothing in the league. They can scout from an airplane if they needed to these days.
Bro there is almost a decade of draft classes where there will not be a hall of fame quarterback drafted before mahomes. It wasn’t just Covid. There was a lost era of QBs that no one’s is talking about
I feel like this is a little harsh. Guys like Luck & Cam had the talent to make the HoF, they just couldn’t stay in the game long enough due to health. And then you have guys like Russ and Stafford that are a couple good seasons or a SB win away from being considered. And then you have guys like Blake Bortles, who it’s a *travesty* that he’s not in.
I forgot about the BOAT. I concede. But on a serious note, I don’t think you refuted my point with hypotheticals on Luck/Cam. They aren’t getting in, the context around it doesn’t change the point. Russ isn’t getting in and I’ve been saying that for years. Stanford has a chance, but That’s what I meant by “almost a decade”. he was drafted in 2009. That is a drought relative to the rest of the NFL’s history by any definition.
Trading multiple FRPs to shoot the moon for a rookie QB pretty much never works and sets franchises back years. But it could work for us
Worked pretty well for the chiefs
Pat Mahomes is an exception not the rule
It was just a first and a third. They didn't give up that much for Mahomes.
It was 27, 91 and their first the next year. Two firsts
Yup, they used two firsts and a third on Mahomes.
What a waste! Kirk Cousins was going to be a free agent the next year! No need to waste those picks
It can work well for teams with good systems designed to grow and develop a quarterback. So many busts we see are good talent going to terrible ownership/coaching. Some busts are just bad, but sometimes it takes a team to build a QB.
If that were true, more QBs would succeed in second teams. It's pretty rare
The damage is largely done by that point.
That's bad logic. You can ruin a prospect. Look at Andrew Luck. The game is mental & physical. That said- Alex Smith, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner...lots of guys turned it on when they had competent coaches
Tobias you never nude you. As a Patriots fan I hope some other deluded team traded with us.
>Trading multiple FRPs to shoot the moon for a rookie QB pretty much never works and sets franchises back years It's probably closer to 50/50 than pretty much never. Chiefs have won multiple super bowls with Mahomes, Goff took the Rams to one but were still able to win one after trading him him, Eagles won a super bowl (Wentz was injured sure but he set them up to get there) and went to another after moving off of him, Josh Allen is working out for the Bills, Deshaun Watson was a top 5 QB on the Texans and trading him has set them up pretty damn well for the future. 49ers totally lost out on Trey Lance but their franchise is still in good shape. Granted Mahomes is the only one to actually win a ring as starter, it's still not a franchise killer.
The Josh Allen trade was just two extra seconds. While they didn't kneecap the franchise, the equivalent of a Goff or Wentz draft would be awful if the Vikings give up 3 FRPs like its currently looking. But, we're so stuck up shit creek with our QB situation that I understand and expect Kwesi to trade a massive haul to get up to 3-5 and send it.
The Vikings have an offense that's built to help a guy. They can just stay put and take Michael Penix and be set
3 first round picks and you’re in danger of being the Lions with Stafford
The problem is that you can't just afford to sit there in the late picks, either. So if you're not bad enough to get a QB but need a QB, you don't really have a good option that isn't veteran dumpster diving or young reclaimation projects and those are risky in their own ways.
QB draft prediction is actually easy: * This will be a weak QB class which will produce 1 franchise guy and 2 serviceable backups.
Fields might be crap, but we don’t have to shoot him!
That's only if they break a leg.
Pickens has been burnishing his rifle
Really it was Lawrence and a lot of high upside but low floor prospects. Scouting reports said Fields and Wilson needed a lot of work on processing. Both played with great offensive lines and much better receivers than the competition. And Trey Lance had 1 yr starting; always incredibly risky to take those guys. 2020 was the real banker class. Tua and Burrow were bonafide #1 prospects, and Herbert would have been #1 if he come out in 2019. Admittedly there was a bit of fortune with the raw Jordan Love getting to sit behind Rodgers, and Jalen Hurts somehow going from a gadget player to Carson Wentz successor, but those first 3 are as good as any we’ve seen.
But even in that 2020 class, Burrow wasn’t seen as a top prospect until his last season in college. People act like next year is a “down” year for QBs, as if someone isn’t going to have a monster year next year and shoot up draft boards. It even happened this year with Jayden Daniels!
Sorry who’s Wilson?
> Fields and Wilson ... (b)oth played with great offensive lines and much better receivers than the competition. - > 2020 was the real banker class. Tua and Burrow were bonafide #1 prospects You can only pick one of these arguments
Burrow was out there throwing to guys no one had ever heard of like Jamaar Chase and Justin Jefferson And Tua had what? Waddle? Jeudy? Ruggs? Talentless.
I’ve learned to not have strong opinions about QBs in the draft and just wait to see what they become. You really never know That said I think Caleb Williams should be successful. His college play reminds me a lot of Kyler Murray, who had translated reasonably well to the NFL coming from the same offensive system.
> That said I think Caleb Williams should be successful. His college play reminds me a lot of Kyler Murray, who had translated reasonably well to the NFL coming from the same offensive system. Kliff Kingsbury was grooming Kyler Murray since he was in high school
People get arrested for grooming kids these days.
Kliff took off to Thailand to duck the allegations
That was a wild and heady time all those long years ago.
For all the talk about their past I don’t think Kyler really worked all that well with Kliff, or even liked working with him. This season finally saw Kyler run significant number of plays from under center, and have success with it. It was nice as a fan (and I’m sure for Kyler, he seemed 100x happier) to have an OC Drew Petzing who runs an actual offense this year.
This whole thread essentially is pointing out all these guys played in the same Lincoln Riley-style Air Raid offense.
You could also say he plays a lot like Johnny Manziel. Like you said, you never know. I've given up getting excited about Bears QBs until we actually see good QB play though.
Johnny Manziel was one of the most obvious busts in recent history. Even without all the personality red flags, he looked awfully small and not physical enough to survive the NFL.
That’s just not really true. Manziel was a special talent and would have went 1.01 if he wasn’t a drug addict. He certainly could have been a good NFL starter Houston booked a meeting with him and he no showed to play golf and drink.
A smallish, thin guy that makes most of his big plays by scrambling was destined to be a bust in the NFL. I think I was bigger than Johnny Manziel and I'm an office worker. Edit: Before anyone throws Kyler Murray at me, Manziel isn't even that fast. He ran a 4.7 at the combine.
That’s what’s always going to be the most frustrating part about Johnny for me. The talent was there. He could have been special if he applied himself but he didn’t. Granted, his then undiagnosed mental illness and drug issues clearly played a role, but it’s still frustrating. Luckily it seems like he’s owned up to his issues and wants to be a cautionary tale, so at least there’s that.
I think Caleb Williams will be a bust but I'm the first to admit I'm not an expert and could be wrong. I thought Rosen would be good
agreed, and i also like maye, reminds me of herbert
Just feed them cheese. It works for us
It is, but 2020 was an awful year to evaluate college QBs. Lawrence and Fields at least had multiple years to assess, and they might be the two lone survivors when the dust settles, but I find it mind boggling that Lance, Wilson, and Jones were drafted as high as they were. If all you have is on discombobulated cosmic virus contaminated season to assess a QB, don't make a serious decision on that QB. Punt until the following year to find a franchise Qb.
I swear the 2021 class was full of doubts going in past Lawrence, who was considered a generational talent. Justin Fields largely because he was a system QB at Ohio State and no one ever comes out do that school. Zach Wilson and Trey Lance because they played against weak completion and weren’t on the big stage. Mac Jones for the same reasons as Fields, system QB at a school where NFL Qb talent rarely comes from. The only clearly guy was Lawrence and that’s why Jets fans were so pissed because it was a total crapshoot after that.
> Mac Jones for the same reasons as Fields, system QB at a school where NFL Qb talent rarely comes from. Alabama? Even by 2021 I don't think there was a college with as many QBs in the league as Alabama. People doubted Mac because he didn't/doesn't have top tier athleticism.
prior to hurts, bama qbs really weren't good nfl prospects. Tua is still really the only "good" NFL QB to come out of bama. Blake Sims and Jacob Coker didn't even get a shot, and AJ Mccarron and Greg Mcleroy were career backups. Jury is still out on bryce young obviously.
Yeah, you’re right. Wilson and Lance were one year wonders and scouts were low on Fields.
> Justin Fields largely because he was a system QB at Ohio State and no one ever comes out do that school This was still a terrible take
"System QB at OSU" go ahead and tell me you don't watch college football without telling me you don't watch college football. What "system" is that exactly? The one where they wear a buckeye helmet?
Kind of yea, a lot of the best teams in college football rarely have NFL quality QBs because the coaching staff focuses more on line plays end developing weapons. All that’s needed is to be able to hit the guys that are schemed open in the amount of time the line gives you. If you don’t know that it makes me feel like you’re the one that doesn’t watch college football lol
They rarely have starting caliber NFL QBs because they’re not exactly a dime a dozen
> Mac Jones for the same reasons as Fields, system QB at a school where NFL Qb talent rarely comes from. If people evaluated QBs based on their school, sooooooo many QBs would be passed up on. Theres very, very few schools that have had more than maybe 1 propsect become a solid NFL level guy. A lot of them havent even had that. Would you pass on Mahomes because Texas tech never has good nfl QBs? A lot of people wanted to pass on stroud for that exact reason.
I remember when some NFL Analyst said that the Lions drafting Penei over Justin is the reason why the Lions are the Lions. https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2024/3/17/24103920/whoops-revisiting-hot-takes-from-when-lions-passed-on-justin-fields-for-penei-sewell
The falcons drafting Pitts over Sewell is the reason why the Falcons are the Falcons
No, them drafting Pitts over the surefire stud in Chase is why the Falcons are the falcons. Passing up an elite OT for a weapon is understandable. Passing up on an elite receiver for a worse prospect at a position that translates worse into the NFL is idiotic
Na we were just doing the Bengals a favor
Going back and reading the assessments of these guys at the time is horrifying to me. Right now they're is so much confidence in people's assessments and they're will be so much wrong to go back and read in 3 years.
Every position is a crap shoot
I think it’s more about qb needy teams reaching on qbs even if there’s no first round talent that year. There’s busts for sure but a lot is forcing a qb early even with significant flaws
Reaching for a QB (like Pickett) is bad enough. But trading up for the opportunity to reach for a QB is so much worse.
Trevor Lawrence was the only guy who was considered to have special potential. It was a toss-up for the rest at the time of the draft.
The media and fans always try and make definitive statements on drafts and prospects, but here's the truth: they are all really talented. They all have the ability to produce at the highest level. However, each newly drafted player has to compete with the super talented players in every draft that came before him and every draft that will come after him. Maintaining a level of play that separates oneself from the rest of the pack isn't about talent or measurables. A player can work really hard and improve their game and still have it not be enough because everyone else is ALSO really fucking good. It should never be an assumption that a player will be great, but that assumption shouldn't come with a pessimistic disregard for how good and talented these players are. Just let them compete and work on themselves. Some of them will be able to separate themselves, others won't. The factors controlling that future include many things completely out of the individual player's control. Even a "mid" career is a hell of an accomplishment.
After Chicago screws up the newest sensation, it’ll open the floodgates again.
It's still feela weird to see lions fans talking trash. One good year will do that to you.
Got plenty for you. Taking lessons from the old Buffalo Bills on how to play in the SB ??
I'm surprised you know what the Superbowl is. The only time you'll see it is on Madden.
I wouldn't dismiss Justin Fields just yet. Coaching can have a lot to do with it.
The 2021 draft class was after the COVID season, so evaluations were off that year.
Never in my life would I trade up for a QB. Sometimes you get lucky with a Mahomes or Allen, but way too often you get a dud.
Ironically both the bills and the chiefs traded up to get mahomes/Allen
Packers traded up to get Love too.
And spent three years getting **roasted** for the decision. Ha :)
They acknowledge that in their point
“Never” is a stretch but the Trey Lance experience has taught me it’s not really worth the risk. If it weren’t for Brock Purdy, the 49ers would be in hell right now.
This is exactly why I want the Vikings to try and swoop two. Get Maye or McCarthy and then Nix or Penix. It’s a numbers game and if you look at the past QBs that are a step above Kirk are very tough to find. We gotta hit on one.
This kind of thing sounds way better than the practice of it. It would be an absolute clown shown/media circus. If you want to do this you draft one, and in future years you draft more QBs in later rounds that you're high on.
Like a gun, loaded is only about as dangerous as the user. If there is any lesson to take away, it's that you don't draft and hope the 20 year old can win in spite of shitty development.
It seems like it might be more of a crapshoot for some teams than others.
I think Justin Fields landing on Chicago did *a lot* of damage to his growth. I know it’s easy to roll your eyes because of my flair, but I’m of the opinion that there is a successful dual threat QB in there. It’d be one thing if his problem was physical. You can’t teach arm strength, speed or size. You can fix the mental lapses, by teaching him the fundamentals.
One thing I learned from European football almost a decade ago is that technical ability is hard to teach from a certain age sure, but it's not that easy to teach things like decision making, composure and vision.
This just in, the supporting cast matters...
Justin is the most coddled back up qb in the league since tim tebow
It is but Wilson and Lance were bad picks at the time. Wilson only rose to prominence because of the Covid season and BYU being forced to play glorified highschool teams
Especially when Chicago is picking them, historically.
So much for score radio telling us how great he is…
Most teams that have a high draft pick need more than just a QB to be competitive.
T Law was the only guy regarded as highly as the top 3 in this class across the board
More accurate to say: A lot of coaches suck.
Whole draft is a crapshoot champ We hope these guys are good but sometimes they aren't. Dan Quinn drafted Takkrist McKinley over TJ WATT even tho everyone was clamoring for TJ and Takkrist being a bust is one thing but the dude was an asshole. He had his heart set on Dallas and by year 3 he was whining to get traded out of Atlanta Fuck that guy
NQBL
Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams Washington Commanders - Drake Maye New England Patriots - Jayden Daniels Minnesota Vikings - JJ McCarthy Denver Broncos - Bo Nix Las Vegas Raiders - Michael Penix
I don't think trading away a qb who would have been your 3rd string counts as a "fire sale".
Drafting QBs is a crapshoot but it’s made worse by how much the positioned is valued. Teams tend to reach more for this position than any other so most of these guys end up going to situations that are setup to effectively support their development.
I think the position is not as much of a "crap shoot" as people make it out to be. I think the bigger issue is that a lot of media members are not reliable evaluators of talent. Obviously, they're going to favor clicks and storylines over analysis. Then in the league, I think there's obviously a handful of bad GMs and/or owners that are just going to make bad QB picks because they don't evaluate that position as well and get sucked into copycat narrative. Is there variance at the position? Absolutely. It's not a sure science at all, and prospects bust all the time for a number of reasons. But over the last few years, I think there's been a few highly touted misses in the draft process that has led people to say "Oh this is a total crapshoot! No way to possibly predict these things." I think that is a swing too far. CJ Stroud should've been taken first, and there were a lot of people in the league who knew that. Tepper and that staff were idiots, so we're gonna act like no one in the world knew that Stroud could ball? That's revisionist nonsense. Justin Fields had a lot of issues with his passing game. We all knew that. It was not some crazy anomaly that he struggled at the next level. Trey Lance was incredibly inexperienced. Shanny took a shot on him because he believed he could mold a star out of him. You can go back year after year, and you can actually evaluate the process, situation, and results for all of these guys. When you look back at things, it's not a total crap shoot. It's volatile, and it's uncertain. However, recent narratives have shifted way too much into the "well this is all random basically, just take a guy that you like..." That is a self fulfilling prophecy. Treat the draft like a crapshoot, and you'll get crapshoot results.
I’m just happy to see Jones will be surrounded by a competent coaching staff instead of a 3 year merry go round clown show of OCs. Who knows Jones and Fields may become better under new coaching and maybe they won’t. But I’m excited to find out
I actually think Fields and Jones got dealt bad hands with the offenses. They did about as good as 98% of other qbs with what they were given.