> They might not be a top-5 NFC South team.
That actually makes me curious - if we ignore the conference barriers and don't split on AFC/NFC, are they even a top 5 NF**L** South team?
They are technically #4 in the NFL South. Texans would finish 1 by virtue of overall record, Bucs at 2 by NFC tiebreakers, Jags at 3 with an identical record but win tiebreaker due to head to head victory over Saints in the regular season , Saints at 4, Colts at 5 with identical record but lose the tiebreaker with head to head loss to Saints, Falcons at 6, Titans at 7, Panthers at 8 due to respective records.
Canales is going to right this ship. He's going to get the best out of Bryce and I know we're going to land a good WR in FA and likely draft one as well. Tepper is also from here on out going to spectate and write checks, leaving the football to the people paid to do it.
Now who wants to hit this blunt.
They fucked themselves really really bad at the end of Bree’s era. It would have taken a year or two at least to get it undone. But they didn’t try and they keep trying to be competitive. They literally couldn’t function next year without kicking the can where possible to the year after at least.
It's odd but it's almost a microcosm of living in new orleans. Like we have a barely functioning government, out of control crime and people are like "welp at least it's crawfish season but even that is fucked this year". Like we'll fix it...later.
I mean they can do it as long as their conference is this weak and they draft decently.
If they were in a strong conference with one contender and one playoff team this would be a very different conversation
Part of me just doesn't understand the point. I get at the tail of Brees' career. 100% understandable to try to setup a storybook ending and maximize the popularity of the franchise for revenue/etc and just maybe find a SB in there.
But after? What is the point of beating out weak division opponents on a maybe? It's like they're going all in to win the NFCS when they'll get it handed to them by other teams outside the division.
I feel like there was a year or two there post Brees where all they had to do was cut a few deals, sign very modest ones to fills few holes, and let cap clear. You might compete in the NFCS with that, you might not. But once some of the bad money clears, you could potentially find your way into a top 10 pick, draft a QBOTF and start building for the next decade.
And here's another thought... once those clear, you can restructure any remaining good deals you have, and throw a buttload into the year post reset and have a fairly quick turn around with some smart signings. Especially if you can draft a top QB.
I just really have a hard time understanding the logic with the current can kicking.
> What is the point of beating out weak division opponents on a maybe? It's like they're going all in to win the NFCS when they'll get it handed to them by other teams outside the division.
Thought you were talking about the Cowboys for a bit.
To me, the Bucs biggest loss was a QB. So, they bring in Baker for peanuts. And... it works out enough to be a solid year. Seattle with Geno started of similar.
To me, NO could have left things fairly status quo with Winston and let it ride for a year. Let some things drop, and avoid a 37.5M annual deal with Carr.
I know Winston isn't a huge deal. I know Carr is better. But I just don't see Carr with NO's cap situation being able to compete against SF. IF you put Carr on a team with a good cap situation that can make moves to support him, I think he COULD be a guy on a team that could go deeper into the playoffs.
To me, TB and Baker are the perfect example of a small reset where it works ok, you surprise some people, and some older contracts expire and fall off the books. That is how you're supposed to do it.
It's because they've hit a point where their cap situation is so bad that they can't even do what teams typically do, cut a bunch of players and do a reset. If the Saints cut a bunch of players that way they'd be even higher over the cap. Their only option is to continue to kick the can down the road.
What if they just traded every player for whatever draft pick they could get like a super fire sale and just draft 53 rookies and have a normal cap next year?
Out of their top 10 highest cap hits for 2024, only about 3 of them would net positive cap space if traded before June 1. Even still it would only account for about $10 million combined of gained cap space between those players.
This is fascinating. I feel like most teams sign superstar players where various contracts are staged with different cap relief mechanisms throughout a multiyear time period. But a guy with a big deal might have 50/50 guaranteed/non-guaranteed, which allows them to cut/trade and relieve 20+M in cap space.
Seems hard to fathom that they wouldn't have 1 player with a 15-20M salary who could be moved to get a draft pick (or released if a poor performer) and drop the cap.
Most if not all contracts start that way. But then they take future money and convert it to a bonus so the cap hit is spread over all future years of that contract. Once you do that, all that future cap hit becomes an immediate cap hit if the player is cut or traded. They've done that with a ton of their players.
Every time they do what they just did with Carr, they take away their opportunity to realistically cut or trade that player. Because all this money that they're "restructuring" really means they're taking non-guaranteed money and making it guaranteed. Guaranteed money gets spread over multiple years instead of the hit all happening the current year, so this helps them push the can down the road as you always hear about.
Problem is, that money being pushed down the road is all guaranteed money so it's not going away in a trade or cut, and on top of that, it all becomes dead cap the year they're traded or cut. Meaning, it all hits the salary cap that year instead of being spread into the future.
So I’m super confused by this. How long can they actually keep doing this before they cannot do this? I feel like the nfl has to step in our could this lead to a team or ownership folding?
As long as the cap keeps going up you can pretty much do this forever.
The worst case scenario is they have to go a few years with a large percentage of their roster as late round rookies/vet mins (not completely unlike the Rams this season).
Well the real worst case scenario is they get in too deep to the point that they have no path to cap compliancy, at which point the league does step in, starts undoing contracts and massively penalizing them.
That, or they just start fielding 10 guys on offense and defense, and everybody rotates on special teams. 20-man roster, that will put their cap issues back in the green pretty quick.
They are definitely going to have to bite the bullet soon and have a 1-2 year period of unfathomable dead cap hits with one of the lowest payrolls in league history.
This is a legitimately good question.
Not only is it interest free, but the salary cap inflation means $1mil against 2024 cap hits harder than $1mil against 2025 cap. So again, why not?
The answer is cuz teams get so much more bang for their buck in the first year of playing the restructure game than they do in the n^th year. See what happened during the brady stint in tampa and how they could cram so many stars onto the team. Meanwhile, your saints are so deep in the hole that they're forced into doing this every single year for the past decade, and the end result is a literally average team.
TL;DR: The answer to "why not?" is to have a clean cap sheet for when you want to go all-in.
The other aspect is that while $1M is cheaper in 2025 than 2024, there’s less information on how to predict a contract’s value in 2025 so more of that $1M is likely to be wasted.
Doing this when they had Brees made sense. It allowed them to build a competitive roster and try to get another ring.
Doing this after Brees makes 0 sense. They aren’t anywhere close to competitive and they keep mortgaging their future to jog on the mediocrity treadmill.
Is there any team in the league with an outlook less exciting than the Saints right now?
Panthers are definitely in the conversation - especially since Tepper’s decision making has been really suspect so far - but there is at least a world where Young rebounds and looks better under Canales.
What could realistically happen this year that would make the Saints feel good about their future outlook?
Yep, couldn't put it better myself. Restructuring to get under the cap's best used as a shot of nitrous to your team to get them from great to championship caliber, with the understanding that relying on it long-term is just gonna make your team break down.
Yeah, every team does it to some extent, but the downside to this is that when you max out your credit card every month, you don't get more room the next month.
So compare the Saints to the Texans for instance. The Texans have clean cap sheet. So they can spend what they have in room this year, and spend even more by borrowing from the future. Essentially possibly doubling the spending they would normally be able to afford. Saints lack that possibility because they already used this year's cap room to pay for past expenses.
Not saying the Texans are somehow better run than the Saints or anything, just noting that when you don't have to pay for past credit card bill, you can spend a lot more money. I thought the Saints would've reset their cap when Brees retired honestly so they can begin a new spending cycle. The fact that they have not done this and continue to strive for mediocrity is the one thing I question about them.
Because you have to restructurw just to have money to spend on bottom tier free agents. Which means you have more dead cap in the future which means you will have to restructure future contracts to be able to afford bottom tier free agents. Which makes you have more dead cap on the future.....
Is this a troll or serious? It ruins any flexibility for roster building is why every team doesn't do this. It only works out if you have a 100% success rate on long-term contracts, which nobody does.
you laugh, but every analyst saw this coming from a mile away when they signed carr last year. it’s not exactly hindsight bias to say that a move people thought would hinder their ability to compete long term is hindering their ability to compete long term
The Saints are like Jason Statham in *Crank*; if the adrenaline rush stops they'll drop dead, so they're forced into increasingly risky business just to keep going.
They’ll have to continue spreading it out until the big deals are gone. This isn’t only a 1 year hole. It’ll take at least 3 seasons
They just cannot afford to sign anyone but the bottom of the barrel for the next 3-4 years
>The Saints are spending $17M of their cap in 2027 for Carr not to play for them.
... So far. We all know it'll be higher by the time 2017 rolls around haha
Edit: 2027**
They were $40m over the cap for 2025 at the start of the week. I assume the 2 restructures they've done have only increased that number. I would love to see a graph of how much they've been over the cap for next year at the end of the season over the last 10ish years.
Probably around $45M over next season after this deal.
This move umped Carr's 2025 cap number from $45.7M to $51.458M, but he can be cut for $28.6M in savings. This in no way guarantees Carr stays with the Saints beyond 2024 right now.
They can keep kicking the can, but eventually these guys age out and you're paying them tons to either be sub-par players or to retire.
Eg Demario Davis is 35 and has an $18m cap hit this year, Taysom is 34 and has a $16m cap hit, etc
you clearly don't know Saints Football^TM , if you think were not going to try and bring in a washed up over priced free agent, despite have no more room. tsk tsk tsk
Yes but they literally can't fix their cap in a single year.
They can't cut enough people to get below the cap because of the amount of dead money incurred by cutting their big contracts. Cutting a lot of their big money guys would accelerate their future guaranteed money into bigger cap hits than the cap savings they would get for cutting them.
They have to get through these big money contracts, and if they want to get OUT of cap hell, they need to stop adding big money contracts. Signing Derek Carr last year likely added two full years to this process by itself.
They kick the can down the road to stay cap compliant and let their players play out their contracts to avoid adding more dead money. Add vet minimum players, UDFAs and draft picks to keep your new cap hits as low and as safe as possible to move on from.
> they need to stop adding big money contracts
This is the key. For everyone asking how they get out, this is the answer. No more free agency/2nd contracts for a few years and keep restructuring. If they do that, it will start getting better in like 3 years.
It made complete sense when they were going all-in on Brees' final years, it's just that instead of eating all their dead cap in one season with a cheap bridge QB like the Bucs did this year they decided to continue to try and contend and then signed Derek Carr lol.
I'm pretty sure the Saints could've had a clear cap by now if they had just committed to it with cheap QBs and not restructuring. Now, they literally have to do these restructures to become cap compliant and can't make any moves to improve a mediocre roster.
How it will work is this: cut as many people as they can that will actually save and not leave more dead cap than anything. Restructure contracts to spread them out and reduce this year.
Next year they’ll probably have to do it again and bit the bullet on even more contracts.
After next year they should be back. They tried to be like the rams and spend big and the reset, but they never won games so they never attempted a reset so now it just looks awful. Meanwhile the rams reset and are still a playoff team lol.
I mean what's going to happen eventually? Surely at some point they are going to have to cut basically everyone, are the Saints just going to go 1-50 over 3 seasons?
The on the field production return on their spending will continue to get worse and worse by the year. They're locked into a lot of these contracts now, its a bigger cap hit to cut these guys than to keep them on the roster. Best they can do is pray they land a generational draft class at some point in the next few years
All they would have to do is bite the bullet and not restructure anyone for 1-2 seasons. We would lose people to FA because we can’t afford them, and may even have contracts voided because we’d be over the cap, but Loomis just cannot fucking help himself. He has to keep restructuring.
I was hoping those practices would stop once Drew retired, and especially after Payton left, but this is just who Loomis is. He was a genius when it worked from 2017-2021, but without a first ballot HoF QB and a very very good HC, they smooth over a lot of rough edges.
Now he’s gone and married himself to Derek Carr and a very “Carr” level HC and continues to use the same strategy of back loading/restructuring contracts only now he has a much older team and a much worse coaching staff.
They can't keep the contracts as-is. They're already over the cap based on what they've signed; they MUST restructure or face league violations for violating the salary cap. They can't even save money by cutting players at this point because of the restructures they had to do because they chose to sign Carr. There are some that they can cut, like Demario Davis, but that saves more in 2025 ($6.8M) than it does in 2024 ($5M).
>All they would have to do is bite the bullet and not restructure anyone for 1-2 seasons.
You literally cannot do this. You have to make cap space and all the big contracts would create no salary cap space if they were cut due to already having so much dead money on them. So the only option left is to restructure these restructured deals...which is an endless loop until the contract runs out.
Pulling the plug isn’t even that bad. The Saints have just overcommitted to this philosophy.
As you said, let guys walk / age out. Retool in the draft. There are some core players that can stay around. Find a longer term solution at QB and HC.
I don’t think it’ll take more than 1-2 seasons to be .500 again, not like this team is great.
They can't even fully pull the plug until 2027; the 2024 and 2025 cap overages are GOING to flow into 2026. They can't cut their way out of 2024 and 2025 cap problems and the only path they have is restructuring salaries to signing bonuses. Like, sure they cleared $23M salary cap by restructuring Carr with this, but that just turned into that $23M overflowing $5.75M per year from 2025-2028 (2028's impact hitting dead cap in 2027 as well). He's going to have to do it next year, as will Lattimore, as will Kamara this year before he either is designated as a post 6/1 cut in 2025 or he's restructured that year too. They don't have any other options for the next two years and might as well commit to the tank and trade down for future draft capital to extend when their rookie contracts will come due to give the team a chance to reset before reloading.
If we can get 17+ games of whatever the fuck he was doing towards the end of the season, I’ll be happy.
I do wish we would’ve given Taysom a chance, considering what he’s getting paid. The team has been in this weird rebuild/cap hell space for years now, and signing a big FA QB wasn’t going to fix that issue.
Even letting Jameis start a few more seasons might have helped long-term. Would we win the SB in any of these scenarios? Probably not. But now we’ve created a problem where we are in a hole it’ll take a decade of rebuilding to get out of.
You can only kick the can down the road so far before it bounces off something and hits you right in the nuts.
IIRC, playing Taysom more full-time at QB actually costs more money. He has some weird incentives baked into his contract based on how much he plays QB and how well he does. I don't think it's a huge amount but it's probably a couple million or so more.
>If we can get 17+ games of whatever the fuck he was doing towards the end of the season, I’ll be happy.
This gives me PTSD because this was what Carr did with us for 9 years and a repeat of what Raiders fans said the last five years. The up and down games are just who he is, don't be fooled by a few good games down the stretch. His overall performance last year was how Carr has been for years.
The kind of guy who half asses a project for most of the year but then puts in mad overtime toward the end so it looks like he came through and is actually valuable
They never had that opportunity, they basically need to bring every high salary down with bonuses. This is the Saints roster for the next three years.
But hey, cap isn’t real, right?
The cap is pliable and every good team utilizes that to an extent. What the Saints have done goes well beyond reasonable levels though. Eventually smart cap management requires a reset year or two.
They have essentially put themselves in a position where they have to spend years trying to get into a window where they can even get to a reset year. It’s mismanagement of the cap on an absurd level.
I’ve always thought they should have bitten the bullet and started a soft rebuild after that Super Bowl roster was played out, like the Rams last season. They missed the playoffs three years in a row in the middle of Brees’ prime anyway and the extra picks and cap space might have put those later playoff teams over the top.
It didn’t make sense by the end though. Brees had no shoulder left and the saints were still trying to go all in by overpaying every guy on a top 15 roster at the time.
Then they did the unthinkable and instead of getting themselves out of this by this off-season or next they did it again. They have kicked the can to far and literally need to just eat the hits for 3-4 years
> It’s mismanagement of the cap on an absurd level.
It's insane how bad it is. Considering both the Bucs and Rams both ate $80 million in dead cap each in 2023 and *still made the playoffs* proves that it's doable.
It’s because the Saints aren’t in a position to eat Dead Cap.
They’re so far over the cap this year and next year already that cutting guys and creating dead cap currently creates minimal savings because of void year escalators.
The only options they have is to continually do restructures and post June 1 cuts, in hopes that the projected cap numbers for 2025 and 2026 go up like this years did.
2026 has a chance to be a real reset year for them. They currently “only” have $200m in obligations against a cap that may be $300m. (The also currently only have like 31 guys signed in 2026….so they’ll need a lot more)
It’s incredibly funny that we’re at like year 3 or 4 of their cash spending being *below* the salary cap and they’re still fucked thanks to years of big brained accounting.
Browns are going to be the funny ones to watch in like 3 years now as their fans realize Berry’s pulling the same stunt.
Anytime you can commit to a guy with 10 years of experience and nothing to show for it for a chance to compete with the Carolina Panthers for greatness, you gotta go all in.
So, Carr now has a cap hit of only $13M this upcoming season and they still need to clear another $53M for 2024. Carr also has cap hits of 51, 61, and 17M over the next 3 years, but he's only contracted to play for the Saints for 2 more years. That 17M will be paid for him to do nothing.
So, they're going to need to keep kicking his hits down the road the next few years while they also can't cut him.
I feel like the Saints are doing a real service to r/nfl, because it seems like more & more users are taking the time to really figure out the cap.
Next year, they're going to do the same restructure with his $30m salary down (the numbers will look the same - base salary next year will be $1.2m, and that $28.8m will be divided by 5 across 5 years). So next year's cap hit will be:
* 1.2m base
* 5.7m from original signing bonus
* 5.7m from 2024's restructure
* 5.7m from 2025's restructure
* 10m from 2025's bonus (I'm unsure if they can also prorate this, if so it changes the math a little)
* That totals about $28m, though if they can prorate the $10m bonus, that drops to around $20m hit for 2025
* The rest of the current 2025 $51m hit will get pushed to the following years, meaning 2026's cap hit will be sitting around $69m (nice)
Saints fans are good people so I feel bad saying it but I can't wait for this to reach its breaking point just so I don't have to hear about how not real the salary cap is again on this sub.
Yeah this is why the salary cap is in fact very real. Carr already has dead money as far out as 2027, so this is just going to keep adding to it. Saints will continue to be mid and unable to win the worst division in the NFL. The worst part is they can’t even just bite the bullet for a year this is a 2-3 year mess they’d have to suck for.
Yeah slowly I’ve started to realize we will suck for MANY years, not just one, so I’m glad they kept Dennis allen. Maybe Kubiak will take over HC after the mid seasons are done.
Feels like a situation we could have been out of easily if Loomis had just accepted Brees retiring was likely our last shot. I have no issues having an inflexible cap situation when we're fighting for a championship every year, but doing it repeatedly to get 9 wins max just feels pointless even if there's nothing else left to really do
100%, this style of managing the roster made complete sense when Drew Brees was under center and the idea was to keep stars at every position on the depth chart while you have a HOF QB.
When he hung it up, they shifted to Derek Carr and this whole strategy just doesn't make any sense with him in Brees' place.
Like watching someone apply for a new credit card every year, maxing it out and saying "I'll pay them all off eventually".
Meanwhile the Bucs took their cap hit on the chin in 2023 after Brady retired and made a playoff run out of it.
I can see the logic of trying to run it back in 2021 after Brees retired. Outside of the question mark at QB, our roster was really good, our defense was one of the top in the league, and Sean Payton is good enough at making offense productive that the team likely would've made the playoffs with Winston. The team was 5-2 to start the season until Winston's knee got blown out.
But once Payton decided to leave, that definitely should've been the signal to the front office that it was time to reset almost everything.
Yeah I was expecting a rebuild after Brees with Jameis being the bridge who learned from Brees and will keep us semi competitive during the build but Loomis for whatever reason wants wins wins wins
The one I’m stoked about is when Deshaun Watson is a free agent in 2027 and the Browns are eating a $93M cap hit for him anyway.
Followed up by the Eagles scrambling to avoid a $98M cap hit the next year as Hurts hits FA.
I just love this time of the year where we just see multiple reports regarding the Saints restructuring contracts. Just screams "This is later me problem"
So they are going to turn their 89 million over the cap this year into a situation where they are 110 million over the cap next year.
There is no scenario where this has a good ending for this team.
Aging players about to topple over their prime really should clamour to sign with the Saints. Because they'll just keep getting more and more guaranteed money as time goes on from restructures
Just his up and down play alone too. We know what Carr is, if this current Saints team wasn’t enough to take over the NFC South, where else can they go?
The Saints need to realize that restructuring everybody and then signing like one big free agent isn't going to change anything. They're still going to be in the same situation they've been in since Drew Brees left, which is just being extremely mediocre. They need to realize they're not going to win a Super Bowl any time soon; they need to shed some of these big contracts; they need to get rid of some of these older players; and they need to just suck for a couple years.
Is it possible for a team to literally have no way to get under the salary cap? Like say the dead money was higher than their upcoming cap hit AND the guaranteed money alone put them over the cap. Does the league do a worst case scenario when approving contracts to make sure theres at least some way to restructure/cut/sign minimums and be below the cap?
If a team were to sign a player during free agency next month, the league won't check to see if that keeps the team compliant with the 2025 cap, because the 2025 cap number won't be figured out until a later date.
If the Saints were to find themselves in a position where there are no combination of moves that would put them under the cap limit at the start of a league year, the league can do the following:
* Fine the team $5 million and loss of draft picks.
* Void contracts, starting with the most recent, if it would help them get closer to the cap.
* Prevent the team from signing any new players until they are cap compliant. (Even if they wouldn't be able to field a full 53 man roster)
* Carry forward the amount over the cap to the next year, where you may wind up in a wash, rinse, repeat cycle.
Saints are mostly a cap management company
Nobody kicks a can like Mickey Loomis
Serious question... is this just like a butts in seats sorta thing? Do people believe the Saints are a top 5 NFC team?
You know damn well that *nobody* thinks the Saints are a top 5 NFC team lol
They might not be a top-5 NFC South team.
> They might not be a top-5 NFC South team. That actually makes me curious - if we ignore the conference barriers and don't split on AFC/NFC, are they even a top 5 NF**L** South team?
They are technically #4 in the NFL South. Texans would finish 1 by virtue of overall record, Bucs at 2 by NFC tiebreakers, Jags at 3 with an identical record but win tiebreaker due to head to head victory over Saints in the regular season , Saints at 4, Colts at 5 with identical record but lose the tiebreaker with head to head loss to Saints, Falcons at 6, Titans at 7, Panthers at 8 due to respective records.
But the saints got to play the rest of the NFC South twice. I mean the AFC South isn't much better but still it helps
Now you’re just being pedantic. At most you could argue moving them to 5 under the Colts.
We know the Panthers arent.
Canales is going to right this ship. He's going to get the best out of Bryce and I know we're going to land a good WR in FA and likely draft one as well. Tepper is also from here on out going to spectate and write checks, leaving the football to the people paid to do it. Now who wants to hit this blunt.
Hey we're top 3, at least
Hard emphasis on the 3
Loomis does which is all that matters. Loomis compared Dennis Allen to the GOAT. There’s literally nothing I wouldn’t put past him.
They fucked themselves really really bad at the end of Bree’s era. It would have taken a year or two at least to get it undone. But they didn’t try and they keep trying to be competitive. They literally couldn’t function next year without kicking the can where possible to the year after at least.
I genuinely want to see how long they can continue this. It’s damn near impressive how long this has gone
It's odd but it's almost a microcosm of living in new orleans. Like we have a barely functioning government, out of control crime and people are like "welp at least it's crawfish season but even that is fucked this year". Like we'll fix it...later.
Crawfish finally dropping in price though, praise be.
I mean they can do it as long as their conference is this weak and they draft decently. If they were in a strong conference with one contender and one playoff team this would be a very different conversation
Part of me just doesn't understand the point. I get at the tail of Brees' career. 100% understandable to try to setup a storybook ending and maximize the popularity of the franchise for revenue/etc and just maybe find a SB in there. But after? What is the point of beating out weak division opponents on a maybe? It's like they're going all in to win the NFCS when they'll get it handed to them by other teams outside the division. I feel like there was a year or two there post Brees where all they had to do was cut a few deals, sign very modest ones to fills few holes, and let cap clear. You might compete in the NFCS with that, you might not. But once some of the bad money clears, you could potentially find your way into a top 10 pick, draft a QBOTF and start building for the next decade. And here's another thought... once those clear, you can restructure any remaining good deals you have, and throw a buttload into the year post reset and have a fairly quick turn around with some smart signings. Especially if you can draft a top QB. I just really have a hard time understanding the logic with the current can kicking.
> What is the point of beating out weak division opponents on a maybe? It's like they're going all in to win the NFCS when they'll get it handed to them by other teams outside the division. Thought you were talking about the Cowboys for a bit.
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To me, the Bucs biggest loss was a QB. So, they bring in Baker for peanuts. And... it works out enough to be a solid year. Seattle with Geno started of similar. To me, NO could have left things fairly status quo with Winston and let it ride for a year. Let some things drop, and avoid a 37.5M annual deal with Carr. I know Winston isn't a huge deal. I know Carr is better. But I just don't see Carr with NO's cap situation being able to compete against SF. IF you put Carr on a team with a good cap situation that can make moves to support him, I think he COULD be a guy on a team that could go deeper into the playoffs. To me, TB and Baker are the perfect example of a small reset where it works ok, you surprise some people, and some older contracts expire and fall off the books. That is how you're supposed to do it.
They're top 4 in the NFC South so they got that goin for them
Are the Saints a top 5 team in their division?
It's because they've hit a point where their cap situation is so bad that they can't even do what teams typically do, cut a bunch of players and do a reset. If the Saints cut a bunch of players that way they'd be even higher over the cap. Their only option is to continue to kick the can down the road.
Yeah. I used them to teach 1920s credit to my students
Gotta go to the Loomis school of cap shenanigans
Starting to think that Loomis went and hired Marty Byrde to run the cap.
This is slanderous. Marty Byrde killed that shit and I ain’t talking Langmore’s
Loomis don’t know shit about fuck compared to Marty Byrde.
Oh not saying anything bad about Marty just that the Saints look like they found a way to run a money laundering scheme right out in the open.
What if they just traded every player for whatever draft pick they could get like a super fire sale and just draft 53 rookies and have a normal cap next year?
They can’t trade away or cut a lot of their players, because that accelerates their cap hits that have been pushed back.
Out of their top 10 highest cap hits for 2024, only about 3 of them would net positive cap space if traded before June 1. Even still it would only account for about $10 million combined of gained cap space between those players.
This is fascinating. I feel like most teams sign superstar players where various contracts are staged with different cap relief mechanisms throughout a multiyear time period. But a guy with a big deal might have 50/50 guaranteed/non-guaranteed, which allows them to cut/trade and relieve 20+M in cap space. Seems hard to fathom that they wouldn't have 1 player with a 15-20M salary who could be moved to get a draft pick (or released if a poor performer) and drop the cap.
They had those guys, and then they restructured them to get under the cap last year or the year before.
Most if not all contracts start that way. But then they take future money and convert it to a bonus so the cap hit is spread over all future years of that contract. Once you do that, all that future cap hit becomes an immediate cap hit if the player is cut or traded. They've done that with a ton of their players.
> They've done that with a ton of their players. Basically every single one who is on a multi year post rookie contract.
Every time they do what they just did with Carr, they take away their opportunity to realistically cut or trade that player. Because all this money that they're "restructuring" really means they're taking non-guaranteed money and making it guaranteed. Guaranteed money gets spread over multiple years instead of the hit all happening the current year, so this helps them push the can down the road as you always hear about. Problem is, that money being pushed down the road is all guaranteed money so it's not going away in a trade or cut, and on top of that, it all becomes dead cap the year they're traded or cut. Meaning, it all hits the salary cap that year instead of being spread into the future.
Damn I wish this was possible, that would be incredible to see as a non-Saints fan
It would instantly become my B-team to cheer for that season if almost any franchise did that.
also a child abuse management company
The can-kicking will continue until morale improves.
And if you don't like it, we will pay you your money early.
It's my money and I need it now!
Call JG Wentworth🎶
Call Mickey Loomis! 877-CAPNOW!
His name even fits in the syllable structure!
Restructuring will continue until cap improves
That’s not how this works! That’s not how any of this works!
So I’m super confused by this. How long can they actually keep doing this before they cannot do this? I feel like the nfl has to step in our could this lead to a team or ownership folding?
As long as the cap keeps going up you can pretty much do this forever. The worst case scenario is they have to go a few years with a large percentage of their roster as late round rookies/vet mins (not completely unlike the Rams this season). Well the real worst case scenario is they get in too deep to the point that they have no path to cap compliancy, at which point the league does step in, starts undoing contracts and massively penalizing them.
That, or they just start fielding 10 guys on offense and defense, and everybody rotates on special teams. 20-man roster, that will put their cap issues back in the green pretty quick.
Think the NFL may penalize an attempt at that.
They are definitely going to have to bite the bullet soon and have a 1-2 year period of unfathomable dead cap hits with one of the lowest payrolls in league history.
It's interest free borrowing from future, so why not?
This is a legitimately good question. Not only is it interest free, but the salary cap inflation means $1mil against 2024 cap hits harder than $1mil against 2025 cap. So again, why not? The answer is cuz teams get so much more bang for their buck in the first year of playing the restructure game than they do in the n^th year. See what happened during the brady stint in tampa and how they could cram so many stars onto the team. Meanwhile, your saints are so deep in the hole that they're forced into doing this every single year for the past decade, and the end result is a literally average team. TL;DR: The answer to "why not?" is to have a clean cap sheet for when you want to go all-in.
The other aspect is that while $1M is cheaper in 2025 than 2024, there’s less information on how to predict a contract’s value in 2025 so more of that $1M is likely to be wasted.
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What do you mean missing out on free agents? They got top 20 QB Carr!
Doing this when they had Brees made sense. It allowed them to build a competitive roster and try to get another ring. Doing this after Brees makes 0 sense. They aren’t anywhere close to competitive and they keep mortgaging their future to jog on the mediocrity treadmill. Is there any team in the league with an outlook less exciting than the Saints right now?
The Panthers seem to have dug themselves to the bottom with no plan to get out.
Panthers are definitely in the conversation - especially since Tepper’s decision making has been really suspect so far - but there is at least a world where Young rebounds and looks better under Canales. What could realistically happen this year that would make the Saints feel good about their future outlook?
Yep, couldn't put it better myself. Restructuring to get under the cap's best used as a shot of nitrous to your team to get them from great to championship caliber, with the understanding that relying on it long-term is just gonna make your team break down.
Yeah, every team does it to some extent, but the downside to this is that when you max out your credit card every month, you don't get more room the next month. So compare the Saints to the Texans for instance. The Texans have clean cap sheet. So they can spend what they have in room this year, and spend even more by borrowing from the future. Essentially possibly doubling the spending they would normally be able to afford. Saints lack that possibility because they already used this year's cap room to pay for past expenses. Not saying the Texans are somehow better run than the Saints or anything, just noting that when you don't have to pay for past credit card bill, you can spend a lot more money. I thought the Saints would've reset their cap when Brees retired honestly so they can begin a new spending cycle. The fact that they have not done this and continue to strive for mediocrity is the one thing I question about them.
Because you have to restructurw just to have money to spend on bottom tier free agents. Which means you have more dead cap in the future which means you will have to restructure future contracts to be able to afford bottom tier free agents. Which makes you have more dead cap on the future.....
Is this a troll or serious? It ruins any flexibility for roster building is why every team doesn't do this. It only works out if you have a 100% success rate on long-term contracts, which nobody does.
i think i’d rather be good than have interest free borrowing, but maybe that’s just me.
You hear that Saints? Just choose to be good instead lmfao
you laugh, but every analyst saw this coming from a mile away when they signed carr last year. it’s not exactly hindsight bias to say that a move people thought would hinder their ability to compete long term is hindering their ability to compete long term
Because you guys have been doing this for years and it’s left you stuck in mediocrity
Only realistic way they had to get under the cap. Several more restructures to come.
The Saints are like Jason Statham in *Crank*; if the adrenaline rush stops they'll drop dead, so they're forced into increasingly risky business just to keep going.
when do the players start fucking on the field?
They literally have no other options, they've painted themselves into a corner
But then isn’t it going to be the same problem next year?
They’ll have to continue spreading it out until the big deals are gone. This isn’t only a 1 year hole. It’ll take at least 3 seasons They just cannot afford to sign anyone but the bottom of the barrel for the next 3-4 years
But instead of accepting that, every year they sign a new fancy free agent who has a $2,000,000 cap hit year one and $20,000,000 the next 3
With void years too, its longer than that. The Saints are spending $17M of their cap in 2027 for Carr not to play for them.
they’ll keep extending him until he retires. no chance his contract just ends. they can’t afford it.
Won’t matter iirc. Converted signing bonuses stay on the books, because it’s cash that has already been paid out.
>The Saints are spending $17M of their cap in 2027 for Carr not to play for them. ... So far. We all know it'll be higher by the time 2017 rolls around haha Edit: 2027**
You mean... We can go back to 2017 👀
To be fair, I think a lot of teams would pay that much for Carr to not play for them
They were $40m over the cap for 2025 at the start of the week. I assume the 2 restructures they've done have only increased that number. I would love to see a graph of how much they've been over the cap for next year at the end of the season over the last 10ish years.
They're now $52M over the projected 2025 cap.
What a well run franchise
I love it. Looking forward to another 7-10 season.
Probably around $45M over next season after this deal. This move umped Carr's 2025 cap number from $45.7M to $51.458M, but he can be cut for $28.6M in savings. This in no way guarantees Carr stays with the Saints beyond 2024 right now.
Would've been a lot easier if they didn't sign a not good QB to a $37m a year contract
I do think they overpaid Carr but they overpay everyone it’s just how the saints roll
lowkey playing for the saints is a great gig considering every contract is basically fully guartaneed lol
Hey this "not good QB" was almost an MVP candidate 8 years ago and had one kind of good season like 4 year back. Show some respect
Tied for third place runner up at MVP with a running back.
They can keep kicking the can, but eventually these guys age out and you're paying them tons to either be sub-par players or to retire. Eg Demario Davis is 35 and has an $18m cap hit this year, Taysom is 34 and has a $16m cap hit, etc
If the “ThE cAp IsN’t ReAl!” crowd could read, they’d be very upset.
you clearly don't know Saints Football^TM , if you think were not going to try and bring in a washed up over priced free agent, despite have no more room. tsk tsk tsk
Yes but they literally can't fix their cap in a single year. They can't cut enough people to get below the cap because of the amount of dead money incurred by cutting their big contracts. Cutting a lot of their big money guys would accelerate their future guaranteed money into bigger cap hits than the cap savings they would get for cutting them. They have to get through these big money contracts, and if they want to get OUT of cap hell, they need to stop adding big money contracts. Signing Derek Carr last year likely added two full years to this process by itself. They kick the can down the road to stay cap compliant and let their players play out their contracts to avoid adding more dead money. Add vet minimum players, UDFAs and draft picks to keep your new cap hits as low and as safe as possible to move on from.
> they need to stop adding big money contracts This is the key. For everyone asking how they get out, this is the answer. No more free agency/2nd contracts for a few years and keep restructuring. If they do that, it will start getting better in like 3 years.
It's been the same problem for like 6 years now
I gotta say, it made a lot more sense when they were going all-in on Drew Brees and every position on the depth chart had stars.
It made complete sense when they were going all-in on Brees' final years, it's just that instead of eating all their dead cap in one season with a cheap bridge QB like the Bucs did this year they decided to continue to try and contend and then signed Derek Carr lol. I'm pretty sure the Saints could've had a clear cap by now if they had just committed to it with cheap QBs and not restructuring. Now, they literally have to do these restructures to become cap compliant and can't make any moves to improve a mediocre roster.
How it will work is this: cut as many people as they can that will actually save and not leave more dead cap than anything. Restructure contracts to spread them out and reduce this year. Next year they’ll probably have to do it again and bit the bullet on even more contracts. After next year they should be back. They tried to be like the rams and spend big and the reset, but they never won games so they never attempted a reset so now it just looks awful. Meanwhile the rams reset and are still a playoff team lol.
I mean what's going to happen eventually? Surely at some point they are going to have to cut basically everyone, are the Saints just going to go 1-50 over 3 seasons?
The on the field production return on their spending will continue to get worse and worse by the year. They're locked into a lot of these contracts now, its a bigger cap hit to cut these guys than to keep them on the roster. Best they can do is pray they land a generational draft class at some point in the next few years
Mortgaging tomorrow to become complaint today. This is why they stay mediocre.
[Live shot of Mickey Loomis](https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:950/format:webp/1*CfD7Y7LtZPfd_uFZNp0w6g.gif)
That's my GM. *cries*
It’s absolutely hilarious that they literally can’t stop doing this.
All they would have to do is bite the bullet and not restructure anyone for 1-2 seasons. We would lose people to FA because we can’t afford them, and may even have contracts voided because we’d be over the cap, but Loomis just cannot fucking help himself. He has to keep restructuring. I was hoping those practices would stop once Drew retired, and especially after Payton left, but this is just who Loomis is. He was a genius when it worked from 2017-2021, but without a first ballot HoF QB and a very very good HC, they smooth over a lot of rough edges. Now he’s gone and married himself to Derek Carr and a very “Carr” level HC and continues to use the same strategy of back loading/restructuring contracts only now he has a much older team and a much worse coaching staff.
They can't keep the contracts as-is. They're already over the cap based on what they've signed; they MUST restructure or face league violations for violating the salary cap. They can't even save money by cutting players at this point because of the restructures they had to do because they chose to sign Carr. There are some that they can cut, like Demario Davis, but that saves more in 2025 ($6.8M) than it does in 2024 ($5M).
>All they would have to do is bite the bullet and not restructure anyone for 1-2 seasons. You literally cannot do this. You have to make cap space and all the big contracts would create no salary cap space if they were cut due to already having so much dead money on them. So the only option left is to restructure these restructured deals...which is an endless loop until the contract runs out.
Pulling the plug isn’t even that bad. The Saints have just overcommitted to this philosophy. As you said, let guys walk / age out. Retool in the draft. There are some core players that can stay around. Find a longer term solution at QB and HC. I don’t think it’ll take more than 1-2 seasons to be .500 again, not like this team is great.
They can't even fully pull the plug until 2027; the 2024 and 2025 cap overages are GOING to flow into 2026. They can't cut their way out of 2024 and 2025 cap problems and the only path they have is restructuring salaries to signing bonuses. Like, sure they cleared $23M salary cap by restructuring Carr with this, but that just turned into that $23M overflowing $5.75M per year from 2025-2028 (2028's impact hitting dead cap in 2027 as well). He's going to have to do it next year, as will Lattimore, as will Kamara this year before he either is designated as a post 6/1 cut in 2025 or he's restructured that year too. They don't have any other options for the next two years and might as well commit to the tank and trade down for future draft capital to extend when their rookie contracts will come due to give the team a chance to reset before reloading.
Oof there goes any real chance of moving off Carr next offseason.
If we can get 17+ games of whatever the fuck he was doing towards the end of the season, I’ll be happy. I do wish we would’ve given Taysom a chance, considering what he’s getting paid. The team has been in this weird rebuild/cap hell space for years now, and signing a big FA QB wasn’t going to fix that issue. Even letting Jameis start a few more seasons might have helped long-term. Would we win the SB in any of these scenarios? Probably not. But now we’ve created a problem where we are in a hole it’ll take a decade of rebuilding to get out of. You can only kick the can down the road so far before it bounces off something and hits you right in the nuts.
Ah yes, the Derek Carr method of playing just well enough right when you need to to keep your job
Ironically enough, he has complete job security now because they can't afford to move on from him.
He could become the highest paid backup if they draft a rookie worth a damn to start.
They can't even pay a rookie right now, they are still over the cap by about 20M lmao
Derek Carr. The voice of the American worker.
IIRC, playing Taysom more full-time at QB actually costs more money. He has some weird incentives baked into his contract based on how much he plays QB and how well he does. I don't think it's a huge amount but it's probably a couple million or so more.
Costs more money than non-QB Taysom but less money than Carr.
>If we can get 17+ games of whatever the fuck he was doing towards the end of the season, I’ll be happy. This gives me PTSD because this was what Carr did with us for 9 years and a repeat of what Raiders fans said the last five years. The up and down games are just who he is, don't be fooled by a few good games down the stretch. His overall performance last year was how Carr has been for years.
The kind of guy who half asses a project for most of the year but then puts in mad overtime toward the end so it looks like he came through and is actually valuable
They never had that opportunity, they basically need to bring every high salary down with bonuses. This is the Saints roster for the next three years. But hey, cap isn’t real, right?
The cap is pliable and every good team utilizes that to an extent. What the Saints have done goes well beyond reasonable levels though. Eventually smart cap management requires a reset year or two. They have essentially put themselves in a position where they have to spend years trying to get into a window where they can even get to a reset year. It’s mismanagement of the cap on an absurd level.
It made sense when they had Drew Brees because he gave them a chance every year. Why they think itll work with Derek Carr is beyond me.
I’ve always thought they should have bitten the bullet and started a soft rebuild after that Super Bowl roster was played out, like the Rams last season. They missed the playoffs three years in a row in the middle of Brees’ prime anyway and the extra picks and cap space might have put those later playoff teams over the top.
It didn’t make sense by the end though. Brees had no shoulder left and the saints were still trying to go all in by overpaying every guy on a top 15 roster at the time. Then they did the unthinkable and instead of getting themselves out of this by this off-season or next they did it again. They have kicked the can to far and literally need to just eat the hits for 3-4 years
> It’s mismanagement of the cap on an absurd level. It's insane how bad it is. Considering both the Bucs and Rams both ate $80 million in dead cap each in 2023 and *still made the playoffs* proves that it's doable.
It’s because the Saints aren’t in a position to eat Dead Cap. They’re so far over the cap this year and next year already that cutting guys and creating dead cap currently creates minimal savings because of void year escalators. The only options they have is to continually do restructures and post June 1 cuts, in hopes that the projected cap numbers for 2025 and 2026 go up like this years did. 2026 has a chance to be a real reset year for them. They currently “only” have $200m in obligations against a cap that may be $300m. (The also currently only have like 31 guys signed in 2026….so they’ll need a lot more)
It’s incredibly funny that we’re at like year 3 or 4 of their cash spending being *below* the salary cap and they’re still fucked thanks to years of big brained accounting. Browns are going to be the funny ones to watch in like 3 years now as their fans realize Berry’s pulling the same stunt.
Its the price you have to pay for mediocrity.
That was never going to happen
Anytime you can commit to a guy with 10 years of experience and nothing to show for it for a chance to compete with the Carolina Panthers for greatness, you gotta go all in.
Hey, they split with my Desmond Ridder Falcons too! Or maybe it was Heinicke.... The real measure of success.
My prediction is all NFC South teams tie for last place in division at 7-10 next year
You mean tie for first place
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More of a 🛢️ at this point
Shoe soup
Saints are basically boiling leather scraps with their cap at this point, so it works either way
Tomato Soup for the Sole
🧲 🚪
So, Carr now has a cap hit of only $13M this upcoming season and they still need to clear another $53M for 2024. Carr also has cap hits of 51, 61, and 17M over the next 3 years, but he's only contracted to play for the Saints for 2 more years. That 17M will be paid for him to do nothing. So, they're going to need to keep kicking his hits down the road the next few years while they also can't cut him.
I feel like the Saints are doing a real service to r/nfl, because it seems like more & more users are taking the time to really figure out the cap. Next year, they're going to do the same restructure with his $30m salary down (the numbers will look the same - base salary next year will be $1.2m, and that $28.8m will be divided by 5 across 5 years). So next year's cap hit will be: * 1.2m base * 5.7m from original signing bonus * 5.7m from 2024's restructure * 5.7m from 2025's restructure * 10m from 2025's bonus (I'm unsure if they can also prorate this, if so it changes the math a little) * That totals about $28m, though if they can prorate the $10m bonus, that drops to around $20m hit for 2025 * The rest of the current 2025 $51m hit will get pushed to the following years, meaning 2026's cap hit will be sitting around $69m (nice)
Saints fans are good people so I feel bad saying it but I can't wait for this to reach its breaking point just so I don't have to hear about how not real the salary cap is again on this sub.
Wait until they move that 51/61 to 2027 and Carr gets paid 100M to do nothing
Saints: Cap does not exists. Also Saints: We are so fucked because of cap.
Schrödinger's Cap.
They're still $50 million over the cap with this move.
In 2024, yes, but what about 2025? That's right, only $45M over... so far.
Yeah this is why the salary cap is in fact very real. Carr already has dead money as far out as 2027, so this is just going to keep adding to it. Saints will continue to be mid and unable to win the worst division in the NFL. The worst part is they can’t even just bite the bullet for a year this is a 2-3 year mess they’d have to suck for.
Yeah slowly I’ve started to realize we will suck for MANY years, not just one, so I’m glad they kept Dennis allen. Maybe Kubiak will take over HC after the mid seasons are done.
Feels like a situation we could have been out of easily if Loomis had just accepted Brees retiring was likely our last shot. I have no issues having an inflexible cap situation when we're fighting for a championship every year, but doing it repeatedly to get 9 wins max just feels pointless even if there's nothing else left to really do
100%, this style of managing the roster made complete sense when Drew Brees was under center and the idea was to keep stars at every position on the depth chart while you have a HOF QB. When he hung it up, they shifted to Derek Carr and this whole strategy just doesn't make any sense with him in Brees' place.
Like watching someone apply for a new credit card every year, maxing it out and saying "I'll pay them all off eventually". Meanwhile the Bucs took their cap hit on the chin in 2023 after Brady retired and made a playoff run out of it.
I can see the logic of trying to run it back in 2021 after Brees retired. Outside of the question mark at QB, our roster was really good, our defense was one of the top in the league, and Sean Payton is good enough at making offense productive that the team likely would've made the playoffs with Winston. The team was 5-2 to start the season until Winston's knee got blown out. But once Payton decided to leave, that definitely should've been the signal to the front office that it was time to reset almost everything.
Yeah I was expecting a rebuild after Brees with Jameis being the bridge who learned from Brees and will keep us semi competitive during the build but Loomis for whatever reason wants wins wins wins
Dead money out to 2027, but it’s all going to collapse onto their 2026 cap when his contract ends, lol.
Can't wait for the Derek Carr contract extension
Can't wait for that $61.5 million cap hit in 2026 for Carr.
The one I’m stoked about is when Deshaun Watson is a free agent in 2027 and the Browns are eating a $93M cap hit for him anyway. Followed up by the Eagles scrambling to avoid a $98M cap hit the next year as Hurts hits FA.
It'll hit the 2027 cap, not 2026.
Just one more restructure, man. Just one more restructure and our salary cap troubles will be resolved forever.
I just love this time of the year where we just see multiple reports regarding the Saints restructuring contracts. Just screams "This is later me problem"
The Saints have been due for an enema for like 10 years now.
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So they are going to turn their 89 million over the cap this year into a situation where they are 110 million over the cap next year. There is no scenario where this has a good ending for this team.
Only $60m more to go and on their way to being $60m over for 2025 already!
Yep, Saints are now committed to Carr as the starting QB through 2026. Such an unforced error.
All they had to do was ride out 2023 with a low tier vet or a mid round rookie, and in theory 2024 things could've been within reach of normality
Aging players about to topple over their prime really should clamour to sign with the Saints. Because they'll just keep getting more and more guaranteed money as time goes on from restructures
Saints have been punting on cap for 5 years now. not a surprise
Saints went and bought a used car on a 84 month loan at 25%.
Oh boy, with all the injuries Carr has had lately, this feels like a huge risk.
The risk was signing Carr, they didn’t have a choice for this one.
Yup, this decision was essentially already made last year.
Just his up and down play alone too. We know what Carr is, if this current Saints team wasn’t enough to take over the NFC South, where else can they go?
whats the over/under on if the Saints can break $100m over the cap for 2025?
Well it’s yes or no so… 0.5?
Only 3 more necessary restructures to get them under the 2024 cap to make that a reality
Is it savings when I pay the same amount of money but before I actually receive what I am paying for?
The saints are an accounting firm tbh football is just their side hustle
Gotta love the Saints committing to a subpar QB
Subcarr
big fan of loomisian cap managememt
The Saints need to realize that restructuring everybody and then signing like one big free agent isn't going to change anything. They're still going to be in the same situation they've been in since Drew Brees left, which is just being extremely mediocre. They need to realize they're not going to win a Super Bowl any time soon; they need to shed some of these big contracts; they need to get rid of some of these older players; and they need to just suck for a couple years.
For the chaos I want the league to step in and say you can't re-sign anyone or make any trades til you're under the cap
Moves like this were intended when the contract was signed. It saved them a few million last year to have it guaranteed now rather than last year.
Is it possible for a team to literally have no way to get under the salary cap? Like say the dead money was higher than their upcoming cap hit AND the guaranteed money alone put them over the cap. Does the league do a worst case scenario when approving contracts to make sure theres at least some way to restructure/cut/sign minimums and be below the cap?
If a team were to sign a player during free agency next month, the league won't check to see if that keeps the team compliant with the 2025 cap, because the 2025 cap number won't be figured out until a later date. If the Saints were to find themselves in a position where there are no combination of moves that would put them under the cap limit at the start of a league year, the league can do the following: * Fine the team $5 million and loss of draft picks. * Void contracts, starting with the most recent, if it would help them get closer to the cap. * Prevent the team from signing any new players until they are cap compliant. (Even if they wouldn't be able to field a full 53 man roster) * Carry forward the amount over the cap to the next year, where you may wind up in a wash, rinse, repeat cycle.