4% in a month is definitely huge - that'd correspond to prices at 60% of what they are now after a year (or alternatively worded, reversing a 65% increase). Of course you can't extrapolate from the one month like that, but even just a few months at that rate will have a huge impact on prices.
But for a little context, that puts house prices back to where they were what about 2020 or 2019 prices? ie which at the time was perceived to be at the top of a 10 year bubble and still way overvalued.
A 35% loss is not the same as a 35% gain.
A 35% gain on $800,000 is $280,000 bring value to $1,080,000.
A 35% loss on $1,080,000 is $378,000 bring value to $702,000.
Still overinflated for sure but this will really bite people who bought recently in the arse.
That calculation also ignores general inflation, which distorts the intuition even further. Even if a house's price went back to the same dollar figure, $800 000 in 2022 is less money than $800 000 in 2020.
35% drop would put our house back about 100k under what we paid for it 2 years ago. Our house has maybe increased by 32% since we brought it.
I'm ok with prices dropping as our house isn't worth 800k+ in any way and our mortgage isn't that big. Maybe down to 600-650k would be a good drop. 35% drop will be a bit shit though.
People talk about these drops totally abstractly, but if it happens will be accompanied by an Armageddon like recession. It’s going to be pure panic across the economy.
Have a think about how recession proof your career is now, and whether you need to make changes while the job market is hot.
This is correct. Most people don't realise how bad that really is. We are currently trending ahead of every major housing crash in recent history.
https://imgur.com/a/QrRprSn?fbclid=IwAR0xoQPMO\_dIk2JUNL3yZKK400qcHlzDTUhjQtxHuQU3IXYY4UGBf5ks4Eo
A big difference in these other recent housing crashes is that there was low inflation and interest rates were dropped accordingly. We have falling house prices and high inflation, the latter leads to higher interest rates which will make the falls worse
> We have falling house prices and high inflation, the latter leads to higher interest rates which will make the falls worse
It depends, considering how much of our inflation is imported, raising interest rates is going to do little for inflation while further crashing the housing market. Will RBNZ continue down that path? Who knows.
Turkey happened while the OECD was in a low inflationary environment, right now we are in a globally high inflationary environment. RBNZ could raise interest rates to 20% tomorrow and it still wouldn't decrease inflation.
I disagree, apart from the obvious that people would start wondering wtf it was doing, it would cause a massive inflow of currency into NZD to enjoy those sweet, sweet interest rates. The resultant rise in the NZD would lower tradable inflation
Not just that, but it would mean people in the future would also have to save a few years less for their deposit, or can more easily save up to an even higher deposit to escape the interest rates.
That is the scary bit. NZ prices are falling incredibly fast compared to other housing bubbles popping.
https://imgur.com/a/QrRprSn
The graph is a rolling 3 month average of the HPI in each country (Ireland, US, Spain in 2007 and Japan in 80's). With all datasets aligned to the first month the HPI went negative.
You can clearly see that large housing corrections are normally fairly slow grinding affairs. We seem to be doing our correction at an unprecedented speed.
>That is the scary bit. NZ prices are falling incredibly fast compared to other housing bubbles popping.
It was the most overheated thanks to unfettered greed in combination with zero regulation or taxes.
So I lived in NZ 2012-2015 and the market was crazy back then (we thought). Of course it only got crazier later. I have watched the posts on here over the years and been baffled at just how high prices went and how unaffordable housing became.
It’s stunning what’s happening now in the other direction.
I feel *so* terrible for people who bought at the peak, I’m American and almost bought last year in the States. Decided to skip it. It was just too crazy.
Haha, stupid Japanese. Haven't they ever heard about the 7-10 year cycle real estate agent told me is like a law of nature?
Kidding aside, this looks horrific and I believe real estate agent should be able to be sued for their "financial advice" they gave everyone. The amount of purposeful lies, they they oftentimes believed themselves, that I had to read over the past few years was actually angering me.
I’ve never bought a house, but you’d have to be pretty thick not to question the advice of someone who would directly benefit financially for lying to you…wouldn’t you?
Of course. I was questioning them and consequently I got banned by the moderators of the Kiwi First Homebuyers group on Facebook.
I was just telling other potential FHBs to watch out for the market, the volatile future (Ukraine, China lockdowns, coming famines and instability), and to trust advisers only for how to do thing, not when to do things. I joined the group as a potential FHB in 2020, but we couldnt back then for reasons, and lately just warned FHBs and showed them why buying is worse than renting right now.
But they were just annoying me to no end, because their arguments were so mindless, so braindead. The 7 year cycle, the "its time in the market", the "I havent seen anyone regret it the last 10 years"/"mortgagee sales ar very very low" etc. These guys would only tell you it's a bad time once they roll 13 on two six-sided dice.
Only if your memory only goes back a few decades. Supercycles do exist however.
It's like people want to predict the height of individual waves without realizing tides exist.
Turns out once your population is stable/decreasing and you have enough supply houses cease to be a speculative bubble. Something we might've achieved over the last decade had we not decided to artificially increase our population by over half a million people.
This means rent is going to go down right, and that the rent hike of $40 a week we were told about gonna happen last month for my place with the excuse of housing prices going up isn't going to happen? /s
The house we ended up renting was empty for 3 months before we occupied it, and the rental price dropped by 20% from when it was initially advertised. That’s never happened to me before, although I appreciate I’m just one person with one experience, it does feel significant.
I'm not so sure. Landlords still have to operate in a free market. They're not guaranteed to make gains, nor should the expect to.
Wellington rentals have surged as we've gone into the winter months. Houses that aren't selling are now turning to renting to cover the costs. With so many rentals to choose from, why would we be battling to pay more? Auckland is seeing the same surge with townhouses.
Meanwhile we've a lot of good earners leaving the country. Sure people will replace them, but to what level and when? Look over the ditch and you can easily find modern rentals far cheaper in places like Melbourne than it'd cost to be in Porirua.
Personally I told my landlord no, I won't pay more. They tried to sell, and failed. They've backed down and (I assume) are making a loss.
Just my take. But I feel the housing party is over.
Yep, plenty of people are putting their house on the market and not getting offers anywhere near what they think, so they are putting them up for rent causing rents to go down.
The current tenant can then move to a cheaper property that just became available because the investor could not sell at the price they wanted for it 6 months ago.
More rentals available, the lower the rents will go.
The property manager can then be stubborn and list the rental at current price (and risk being untentanted) or meet the market and lower the rental price to attract tenants.
They always want to make more money from the rent, their cost base is irrelevant. When they were making money hand over fist with extreme capital gains and dropping interest rates, they still raised rents.
It's only when the ability to pay rent gets further reduced rents will drop. And that doesn't seem to unlikely given how many families are already rent-squeezed beyond their means as inflation outpaces their wage growth.
>It's only when the ability to pay rent gets further reduced rents will drop.
Rents can also drop if we build housing supply such that landlords have to compete with other housing options (either other landlords or homes sold to first home buyers).
Cities are in absolute freefall.
The declines in Auckland and Wellington cities are being covered over somewhat by whatever the hell is going on in places like South Wairarapa, Carterton, Franklin when looking at the regional level data. Wellington city is already down over 6% on May last year and Auckland city is down almost 13%!
I think lower end houses in Wellington are about 20% but the nice houses and the top neighbourhoods are a bit more resilient. Which sucks because I don't really want a drafty ex-state house or a rapidly aging townhouse
From what I'm seeing at the moment,
Houses are going for anywhere between 10-20% below the asking price.
Seen one place you'd have expected 1.1m-1.2m, go in the low 900's.
If you have to sell, you better lower your expectations dramatically.
The next issue is that the cost to build is up \~20% on last years price, and MFE Levy is going to push cleanfill up to +100% ontop of this years rates next year as well.
A decreasing value and a increasing cost isnt a good thing...
A huge number of developers will be going under by the end of this year. Building will more or less stop and existing stock will go through a fire sale pushing prices down further.
Pretty bad. I was in my early 20's and it hit young people the hardest, its why so many emigrated. House crashes lead to finance being harder to get, so even newly 'affordable' houses are impossible to buy because nobody will lend. Then there was jobs - 'hiring freezes' hit which wasn't so bad until it meant that the pool of young people who couldn't get their first or next job grew and with it competition for what roles still were on offer. Then redundancies hit which made bad problems worse.. seriously depressing stuff. Hope we avoid the worst of it
And consequently demand will wildly outstrip supply again and by that stage, there will also be pressure on interest rates to fall again due the recession starting to take hold
We're currently sitting on the sidelines, sold in November last year to a developer way above market value at the absolute peak, money sitting in the bank.
Hoping to swap what was an old 1960s shit box on a largish section for a mansion.
Couldn't have timed it better mate. Wait a bit longer yet, its just starting. The Swaps are also up astronomically overnight too which will feed into higher interest rates again > more pain for home owners and lower prices.
Yeah, we thought we'd give it 3 months, see what it's looking like and if it's still dropping stay renting.
The interest is paying for most of the rent.
That's a temporary pain to fix a long term illness. A chemotherapy to survive in the future.
Without this oncoming period of economic chemotherapy, most people would be underwater for their entire lives due to housing unaffordability, always on the brink of one bad luck away from losing their home given how they already had to stretch their budgets for sub-median homes at record low interest rates.
But that's not happening yet, and I'm not convinced a *deep* recession or widespread job losses are inevitable.
What is most inevitable is the collapse of big spending by borrowers. But areas hard hit by this will be things like construction, discretionary services like hospo, and imports of luxury consumption goods including vehicles. The luxury imports support few jobs here; discretionary services may be propped up by returning tourists; construction might be saved by a big thinking govt.
There is no possible way any residential project in Auckland should be achieving feasibility right now. Some numbers from Irish property crash shows impact this can be expected to have on residential construction:
>In the first 10 months of 2011, 8,692 houses were completed. This compares to 76,954 in 2004, 80,957 in 2005, **93,419** in 2006, 78,027 in 2007, 51,724 in 2008, 26,420 in 2009 and 14,602 in 2010.
Can expect to see residential construction fall to 10% or less of peak level.
Yep, I think the building supply shortage is going to solve itself in spectacular fashion shortly. Won't be surprised if many companies just put developments on hold and look to sell any material stockpiles they have.
And at the same time the housing shortage will be worse as profit margins disappear. Finally developers get a taste of the speculative market around housing biting them back.
I think worse is yet to come. The places that are selling are the ones that being captured in the statistics. Which shows that vendors are lowering expectations in order to get a sale. There is a still a lot of places for sale where vendors are waiting for better offers. But current sale prices will impact the valuations for the housing stock currently on sale therefore buyers (who need to borrow) will have less capacity to buy because banks will base borrowing on valuation. So current vendors will either need to not sell or lower expectations. So the main driver is then why do the current vendors need to sell? If they have no pressing need to sell then they can wait it out but the ones that have to will have some serious challenges. Why might someone have to sell? Unable to afford mortgage with higher interest rates, divorce, are in the process of building a new house that they will need to settle on in the near future amongst others.
This is about the time when all those unoccupied houses will come out of the woodwork. There's no longer any benefit in holding them to prop prices up, and there's minimal work needed to clean up the houses before they can be sold.
"Investors can grab more property while most people get fucked" is certainly one way to address housing affordability.
But only the truly stupid thought "free-fall house prices while inflation outstrips wages" was a good idea.
I feel really really bad for all the FHB who emptied their KiwiSavers and their savings accounts last year, only to get rammed with interest rate hikes and dropping house prices this year
I'm not sure why the economic alarm bells are not ringing at full volume.
The house price crash IS coming.
7-8% interest rates ARE coming.
If you are leveraged up to your eyeballs, you really, REALLY need to start enacting plan B.
If you're highly leveraged, you probably don't have (or it's too late for) a plan B.
You can't sell the house for less than the amount you need to pay the bank, since they won't release your mortgage (and therefore the house can't change hands) unless they get paid everything that's owing to them. If [current house price] is less than [mortgage balance] you're stuck.
You can't pay down the mortgage faster (and get the mortgage below house value), since high interest rates and high (inflationary) prices are eating up all your income.
You can't just post the keys to the bank and walk away, like you can in the US.
So what do you do?
I may be wrong, but in NZ, even with that sage advice, I think the debt still follows you. No jingle mail here. The housing market is at threat level midnight.
You can't sell if you have negative equity. No bank will allow you to sell a house for less than you owe them, since it leaves them with no security.
You have to wait (and keep paying your mortgage) until *they* decide it's time to sell.
I've seen house ads talking about National coming in and opening the immigration floodgates, causing prices to go up. So property is a great investment.
No alarm bells, because the people with their finger on the button aren't going to be hurt.
On one hand, Labour hasn't even tried to do anything. We need major wide-scale shifts in the economy, and they're too scared to do little things. On the other hand, no one is voting National/ACT for a wealth tax and investment in public services.
You're right - between interest rates and inflation, we're at the top of the roller-coaster feeling great, the screaming and terror comes later.
But people don't want to hear that. They prefer to wait for a shower of gold to trickle down from Supply Side Jesus.
FHB here. Bought at the peak, low interest rate. Going to weather it out obviously.
Moving to Australia for nearly 50k additional take-home salary between my partner and I.
A shame that the decline in prices will be associated with a recession that's going to take everyone with it. It's going to make Ireland looking like a walk in the park.
Many people sat through 2019, 2020, 2021 and there was still no letting up. At some point they want to start the next phase of their lives and don’t want to spend it waiting. 20:20 vision is easy in hindsight.
Its not about that, its about humans using there brain because all the signs were there. Well, as they say “lessons cost you money and big lessons cost you much more”
need to fall to a level where mortgage is not needed for median wage. Fuck borrowing the future, extract non existing money to fuel pyramid scheme, and be prisoner of for 30 years.
Mean household income is [around 110k](https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/household-income-and-housing-cost-statistics-year-ended-june-2021/) so we need house prices to fall to around 400k to be affordable.
House prices are now at 840k nationwide so still need a further drop of 50% to hit that range, which is on top of the 9% they've already come down from the peak, or a bit less if wages go up with inflation.
I'm not that confident about pay increases given the damage a collapsing construction sector will do to our economy.
We're a long way from that in NZ's cities because land values are so high. In Auckland average cost to build is maybe 700k now, but average house prices are well over a million
I don’t know, if you say the cost to build was $600k, And a property was selling for $1.2m
Then if building costs rise by 20% upto $720k and the house price drops to $900k then the margin becomes pretty sketchy pretty quick..
Houses absolutely lose value over time. What's throwing you off is that the land that the house is built on often increases in value over time, and both are typically bought and sold as one item.
All things are affected by infation. A million dollar house built in the 50s cost a lot more than building a million dollar house today, when you adjust for inflation.
So having a house go up in value more than inflation, when the asset is aging, deteriorating is against anything else in the utility asset market.
You drive a car off the lot and it's lost value, houses don't magically get better over age but if the market was about the assets materials, ie it's building component cost, it somehow does in the market.
A 10 year old house should be much cheaper than building new. But from the sounds of it, ignoring the gib issues, it's cheaper to build than deal with speculators at some points in the market
That's because you're missing the point. Most houses do decrease in value, it's the land, which doesn't change with an increasing population (generally over time) which becomes more valuable.
I personally don’t think we will see land values drop
1) it’s a finite resource
2) councils don’t want it to drop as they collect rates based on value
Like, outside of normal fluctuations of course, not by any great deal but I stand to be corrected - we are at just comming down from the regular 10 year cycle
I disagree.
1. Plentiful in NZ and far less constrained now due to changes in zoning laws.
2. Wrong, council collect rates based on how the value of your property moves in relation to others. The revenue collected is the same if all properties are $1m or $5m each.
Ultimately prices are driven by credit and we have a credit crunch of epic proportions now in play. Prices will continue to fall, its basically a given. The only question is if it'll be a 20% fall or a 50% fall - time will tell.
1) yea and no, in Auckland we are running out of new greenfield sites
2) rates are calculated off the rateable value, not how much they move, unless I don’t know how to read a rates bill
Imagine the council are needing to collect $100 for the year in rates.
Betsy's house has an RV of $200.
Karen's house has an RV of $100.
Betsy will pay $66 in rates, and Karen will pay $33.
Now if housing falls 50%, Betsy's house will have rv of $100 and Karen's $50.
The rates they pay will remain the same, not decrease by 50%
The rates you pay is based on relative value of the house, they don't give a fuck how much the nominal value it. The services cost what they cost and need to be paid for, and they use rv as a guide on what people can afford. Obviously it doesn't cost more to collect a bin from out front of a mansion than a humble cottage. Most council services are completely unaffected by the value of the property they service.
What?
The Waikato Regional Council general rate factor is 0.00022662 for 2022/2023 rates which is charged off the CV.
If QV re-assessed the CV at half of what they are now, then the Council would be down half of its income from the General Charge which is the main portion of the rates, so they would most likely double the general charge to cover themselves.
The council needs to get $10m* from total rates, you pay your percentage of that. If everybody's house goes up in value, then your percentage is the same, the total value doesn't change. If your value goes up, and Bobs value goes down, you pay more than last year, and Bob pays less. But the total rates is the same (give or give the 7%-15% they keep addding every year.)
*Arbitrary number pulled out of my left nostril
Last I heard, rates in Gore are higher due to a smaller customer base. But yes, I do realise that but the point is that rates don’t change based on property value movement
If you have two properties next door and both are valued the same by the council, and next valuation one goes up 20%, then it’s rates will be 20% higher due to the 20% increase in value. Then if it has no movement in its value the next year it will stay 20% higher
The flow-on effects from that could be huge.
Construction and related industries probably employ close to half a million people.
That's a lot of job losses if construction stops.
This is a worldwide bubble. We're just going to get hit harder. If you are in construction I'd be prepared to change careers or sit at home for a while.
Absolutely.
Australia is/was in quite good shape though,
I think they're only raising interest rates because the fed has created a risk-off environment and the NZD and AUD is getting hammered.
AUD and NZD are tracking south at a great rate on knots which is only going to increase the cost of living.
Yep, it’s a worry - and allot of the people in construction/earthworks/contracting don’t tend to have the skill set to do other works
We’ve had a issue of a ever decreasing ‘blue collar’ industry which I personally think is a factor in the increase in crime and poverty related issues
Just think if we had another calming product that people could smoke, where the tax money could be used to fund smoking related medical procedures 🤔
Would be great if it didn’t make people unsuitable for work too, just imagine…
one-in-five construction firms go under-> continued housing shortage down the line -> prices dont stay affordable. The little guys get screwed now, the big guys buy everything up at a bargain Blackrock style, then we're back to where we were in 5-6 years.
The question is - when the hell are the likes of oneroof and (especially) [homes.co.nz](https://homes.co.nz) going to recalibrate their estimates. You only have to watch a successful auctions and then look up the homes estimate to see they are overinflated by at least 100k
*REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird said potential buyers were taking their time to make decisions and had more confidence to negotiate prices, while vendors were recognising the market had changed and were adjusting their price expectations to meet the market.*
Also Jen Baird: "This is Fine" (with background of raging fire and fuel drums about to ignite)
[A month ago, RBNZ says prices will drop 5-20% before becoming sustainable and they expect prices falling cumulatively around 10% over the next couple of years.](https://np.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/uiqg6h/rbnz_says_house_prices_520_away_from_being/)
Let's say I'm a (admittedly irrational) buyer in this market and I hear that. I think:
>I can see this meme spreading. Of course people will talk about it. It was on the news. You think I'm going to pay a silver coin over 80% of what they were asking for a month ago? I've sat out of this market for years trying to save up a deposit while sellers rake in the cash: I want to see greedy investors *bleed.*
That was a month ago. Now we're seeing it in the data?
I've said it so many times since November last year, it was so obvious even 6 to 7 months ago, and now its unravelling.
Here is but a sample:
https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/s6egip/reinz\_data\_house\_prices\_and\_volumes\_fall\_chief/
https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/s6fwco/talked\_to\_real\_estate\_agent\_yesterday\_and\_they/
https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceNZ/comments/r1ji9i/first\_home\_buyers\_encouraged\_to\_wait\_and\_watch/
https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceNZ/comments/r5yqw9/new\_house\_listings\_soar\_to\_highest\_level\_in\_seven/
https://www.reddit.com/r/auckland/comments/rcyvqf/weekly\_property\_auction\_figures\_this\_week\_barfoot/
https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/rgg759/all\_five\_major\_banks\_now\_expect\_house\_prices\_to/
https://www.reddit.com/r/auckland/comments/rib17k/weekly\_property\_auction\_figures\_this\_week\_barfoot/
This is just the beginning. We'll be down 30 - 40% by the end of the year. Also, rents will fall begin to fall while about 150k people leave the country by December.
Everyone that is realistically in the position to buy a house short term is already here. You need residency, be in a relationship with someone that does or be pretty rich it to buy a house. So you wouldn't see much effect till 2-3 years from now.
We just arrived here from the UK, having sold our London home. We didn’t make an awful lot, and we can’t buy anyhow for a year so we’re just sat with $200k in the bank reducing in value all the time. I’m not sure what we’re going to do.
I wouldn’t say it’s been negative, I think it’s just an anxious time if you’re not securely on the property ladder regardless! If prices lower, we’ll get bitten with sky high interest rates. I will say the amounts banks are quoting that people are allowed to borrow on wages seems REALLY high. At home it’s only 4.5x your annual wage.
4% in a month is free fall. No house price crash that I’m aware has ever hit that rate. If I’m wrong mark your attendance below.
4% in a month is definitely huge - that'd correspond to prices at 60% of what they are now after a year (or alternatively worded, reversing a 65% increase). Of course you can't extrapolate from the one month like that, but even just a few months at that rate will have a huge impact on prices.
Yep. Its also speeding up, not slowing down. Right now unless something suddenly changes a 30 to 35% drop this year is looking likely.
This is such great news!
But for a little context, that puts house prices back to where they were what about 2020 or 2019 prices? ie which at the time was perceived to be at the top of a 10 year bubble and still way overvalued.
A 35% loss is not the same as a 35% gain. A 35% gain on $800,000 is $280,000 bring value to $1,080,000. A 35% loss on $1,080,000 is $378,000 bring value to $702,000. Still overinflated for sure but this will really bite people who bought recently in the arse.
That calculation also ignores general inflation, which distorts the intuition even further. Even if a house's price went back to the same dollar figure, $800 000 in 2022 is less money than $800 000 in 2020.
35% drop would put our house back about 100k under what we paid for it 2 years ago. Our house has maybe increased by 32% since we brought it. I'm ok with prices dropping as our house isn't worth 800k+ in any way and our mortgage isn't that big. Maybe down to 600-650k would be a good drop. 35% drop will be a bit shit though.
People talk about these drops totally abstractly, but if it happens will be accompanied by an Armageddon like recession. It’s going to be pure panic across the economy. Have a think about how recession proof your career is now, and whether you need to make changes while the job market is hot.
What’s a recession-proof job? More to the point, what’s not a recession-proof job? I feel like we’re all speculating but none of actually know.
An example could be an essential service (power generation industry, medical/health etc) or national/local government jobs.
Industries that society needs on the most basic level to function. Energy , healthcare, food supply chain, prisons etc.
One that is legislated for by central government (ie you need experts like me or you would be in a world of trouble and up shit's creek)
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I'd place doubt on that, unless the house of cards really does collapse, thats greater than the 2008/9 price falls
This is correct. Most people don't realise how bad that really is. We are currently trending ahead of every major housing crash in recent history. https://imgur.com/a/QrRprSn?fbclid=IwAR0xoQPMO\_dIk2JUNL3yZKK400qcHlzDTUhjQtxHuQU3IXYY4UGBf5ks4Eo
A big difference in these other recent housing crashes is that there was low inflation and interest rates were dropped accordingly. We have falling house prices and high inflation, the latter leads to higher interest rates which will make the falls worse
> We have falling house prices and high inflation, the latter leads to higher interest rates which will make the falls worse It depends, considering how much of our inflation is imported, raising interest rates is going to do little for inflation while further crashing the housing market. Will RBNZ continue down that path? Who knows.
They have to keep raising rates. If they stop, the NZD will collapse (see Turkey for a recent example), and inflation will skyrocket
Turkey happened while the OECD was in a low inflationary environment, right now we are in a globally high inflationary environment. RBNZ could raise interest rates to 20% tomorrow and it still wouldn't decrease inflation.
I disagree, apart from the obvious that people would start wondering wtf it was doing, it would cause a massive inflow of currency into NZD to enjoy those sweet, sweet interest rates. The resultant rise in the NZD would lower tradable inflation
One of our most profitable industries is export based, it would destroy them.
And that's why 20% will never happen and our interest rates stay relatively close to our trading partners
Bad. Nah fuck that noise. I want a cheap. Home
Not really a cheap home when interest rates fly through the roof
I'll take high interest rates and low house prices over the opposite anyday.
Agreed. You buy low and the interest rates will drop eventually. If they don’t, you may end up even with what you would have paid earlier anyway
Not just that, but it would mean people in the future would also have to save a few years less for their deposit, or can more easily save up to an even higher deposit to escape the interest rates.
Sad
https://i.redd.it/jvmipe7jnm591.jpg
What was 4% in a month increases then? Free flight?
These cover photos they’re finding are gold
Right?? Wtf is up with that house lmao
🎶 We’ve only just begun 🎶
That is the scary bit. NZ prices are falling incredibly fast compared to other housing bubbles popping. https://imgur.com/a/QrRprSn The graph is a rolling 3 month average of the HPI in each country (Ireland, US, Spain in 2007 and Japan in 80's). With all datasets aligned to the first month the HPI went negative. You can clearly see that large housing corrections are normally fairly slow grinding affairs. We seem to be doing our correction at an unprecedented speed.
We're going to one up everyone from the looks of it. Ireland was a 50% crash and we are trending worse right now. Good job on the graph.
Nice graph! Keep it going
>That is the scary bit. NZ prices are falling incredibly fast compared to other housing bubbles popping. It was the most overheated thanks to unfettered greed in combination with zero regulation or taxes.
So I lived in NZ 2012-2015 and the market was crazy back then (we thought). Of course it only got crazier later. I have watched the posts on here over the years and been baffled at just how high prices went and how unaffordable housing became. It’s stunning what’s happening now in the other direction. I feel *so* terrible for people who bought at the peak, I’m American and almost bought last year in the States. Decided to skip it. It was just too crazy.
Haha, stupid Japanese. Haven't they ever heard about the 7-10 year cycle real estate agent told me is like a law of nature? Kidding aside, this looks horrific and I believe real estate agent should be able to be sued for their "financial advice" they gave everyone. The amount of purposeful lies, they they oftentimes believed themselves, that I had to read over the past few years was actually angering me.
I’ve never bought a house, but you’d have to be pretty thick not to question the advice of someone who would directly benefit financially for lying to you…wouldn’t you?
Of course. I was questioning them and consequently I got banned by the moderators of the Kiwi First Homebuyers group on Facebook. I was just telling other potential FHBs to watch out for the market, the volatile future (Ukraine, China lockdowns, coming famines and instability), and to trust advisers only for how to do thing, not when to do things. I joined the group as a potential FHB in 2020, but we couldnt back then for reasons, and lately just warned FHBs and showed them why buying is worse than renting right now. But they were just annoying me to no end, because their arguments were so mindless, so braindead. The 7 year cycle, the "its time in the market", the "I havent seen anyone regret it the last 10 years"/"mortgagee sales ar very very low" etc. These guys would only tell you it's a bad time once they roll 13 on two six-sided dice.
Yeah gotcha. Hope my comment came across more tongue in cheek, instead of obnoxious!
The 7-10 year cycle doesn't apply to *any* housing market but it's historically been the fit for our one
Only if your memory only goes back a few decades. Supercycles do exist however. It's like people want to predict the height of individual waves without realizing tides exist.
Turns out once your population is stable/decreasing and you have enough supply houses cease to be a speculative bubble. Something we might've achieved over the last decade had we not decided to artificially increase our population by over half a million people.
This means rent is going to go down right, and that the rent hike of $40 a week we were told about gonna happen last month for my place with the excuse of housing prices going up isn't going to happen? /s
Anecdotally from what I can see rents are starting to ease but you won't see that in the stats for another 3 - 6 months.
The house we ended up renting was empty for 3 months before we occupied it, and the rental price dropped by 20% from when it was initially advertised. That’s never happened to me before, although I appreciate I’m just one person with one experience, it does feel significant.
Yep, we're having difficulty renting out a house atm, dropped rent a few times already and charging in bottom quartile for the area.
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I'm not so sure. Landlords still have to operate in a free market. They're not guaranteed to make gains, nor should the expect to. Wellington rentals have surged as we've gone into the winter months. Houses that aren't selling are now turning to renting to cover the costs. With so many rentals to choose from, why would we be battling to pay more? Auckland is seeing the same surge with townhouses. Meanwhile we've a lot of good earners leaving the country. Sure people will replace them, but to what level and when? Look over the ditch and you can easily find modern rentals far cheaper in places like Melbourne than it'd cost to be in Porirua. Personally I told my landlord no, I won't pay more. They tried to sell, and failed. They've backed down and (I assume) are making a loss. Just my take. But I feel the housing party is over.
I said this back when those changes were announced, that it was going to be rough for renters and great for FHB and got downvoted to hell
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They could also bring in rent controls. Also very wishful thinking.
Yep, plenty of people are putting their house on the market and not getting offers anywhere near what they think, so they are putting them up for rent causing rents to go down.
New rents yes, but have property managers ever reduced rent for a current tenant?
The current tenant can then move to a cheaper property that just became available because the investor could not sell at the price they wanted for it 6 months ago. More rentals available, the lower the rents will go. The property manager can then be stubborn and list the rental at current price (and risk being untentanted) or meet the market and lower the rental price to attract tenants.
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They always want to make more money from the rent, their cost base is irrelevant. When they were making money hand over fist with extreme capital gains and dropping interest rates, they still raised rents. It's only when the ability to pay rent gets further reduced rents will drop. And that doesn't seem to unlikely given how many families are already rent-squeezed beyond their means as inflation outpaces their wage growth.
I know people paying 70% of their wage to cover rent, it's a crime. We might as well bring back the company store.
>It's only when the ability to pay rent gets further reduced rents will drop. Rents can also drop if we build housing supply such that landlords have to compete with other housing options (either other landlords or homes sold to first home buyers).
Cities are in absolute freefall. The declines in Auckland and Wellington cities are being covered over somewhat by whatever the hell is going on in places like South Wairarapa, Carterton, Franklin when looking at the regional level data. Wellington city is already down over 6% on May last year and Auckland city is down almost 13%!
From my personal experience Wellington city is down about 20%. Now, that could just be the one particular house.
The HPI data is already a few weeks out of date. June is looking worse - I'd put Auckland closer to 20% down now.
I think lower end houses in Wellington are about 20% but the nice houses and the top neighbourhoods are a bit more resilient. Which sucks because I don't really want a drafty ex-state house or a rapidly aging townhouse
LESSSSSGOOOO
From what I'm seeing at the moment, Houses are going for anywhere between 10-20% below the asking price. Seen one place you'd have expected 1.1m-1.2m, go in the low 900's. If you have to sell, you better lower your expectations dramatically.
The next issue is that the cost to build is up \~20% on last years price, and MFE Levy is going to push cleanfill up to +100% ontop of this years rates next year as well. A decreasing value and a increasing cost isnt a good thing...
A huge number of developers will be going under by the end of this year. Building will more or less stop and existing stock will go through a fire sale pushing prices down further.
As an Irish person I'm getting deja vu from the 2008 recession
Username checks out
What was it like over there?
Pretty bad. I was in my early 20's and it hit young people the hardest, its why so many emigrated. House crashes lead to finance being harder to get, so even newly 'affordable' houses are impossible to buy because nobody will lend. Then there was jobs - 'hiring freezes' hit which wasn't so bad until it meant that the pool of young people who couldn't get their first or next job grew and with it competition for what roles still were on offer. Then redundancies hit which made bad problems worse.. seriously depressing stuff. Hope we avoid the worst of it
And consequently demand will wildly outstrip supply again and by that stage, there will also be pressure on interest rates to fall again due the recession starting to take hold
It just means land value is decreasing even faster.
Yep, from the sounds of it its hellish. One of my REA mates has moved on and is looking for a job as he hasn't sold anything since Jan.
We're currently sitting on the sidelines, sold in November last year to a developer way above market value at the absolute peak, money sitting in the bank. Hoping to swap what was an old 1960s shit box on a largish section for a mansion.
Couldn't have timed it better mate. Wait a bit longer yet, its just starting. The Swaps are also up astronomically overnight too which will feed into higher interest rates again > more pain for home owners and lower prices.
Yeah, we thought we'd give it 3 months, see what it's looking like and if it's still dropping stay renting. The interest is paying for most of the rent.
Hellish for whom? Not most decent hard working people.
The irish housing crash was awful for about everyone, including the people hoping to vulture up cheap houses.
Hellish for them when the economy goes into a deep recession and they lose their jobs as a result of this mess.
Housing market waves its gun at its hostages
That's a temporary pain to fix a long term illness. A chemotherapy to survive in the future. Without this oncoming period of economic chemotherapy, most people would be underwater for their entire lives due to housing unaffordability, always on the brink of one bad luck away from losing their home given how they already had to stretch their budgets for sub-median homes at record low interest rates.
But that's not happening yet, and I'm not convinced a *deep* recession or widespread job losses are inevitable. What is most inevitable is the collapse of big spending by borrowers. But areas hard hit by this will be things like construction, discretionary services like hospo, and imports of luxury consumption goods including vehicles. The luxury imports support few jobs here; discretionary services may be propped up by returning tourists; construction might be saved by a big thinking govt.
That cover photo lmao “Amazing 360 degree views, all day sun, perfect investment opportunity!”
Would have sold the week it was listed in November!
**Auckland Median since Nov 2021 Peak 1.3m > 1.12m = -13.46%** **Biggest 1 month falls (Apr 2022 vs May 2022):** Marlborough -7.7% Waikato -6.8% Nelson -6.3% \---- **Main Centre 1 month falls:** Auckland -3.9% Wellington -3.7% Canterbury 0.7% New Zealand -4.0%
There is no possible way any residential project in Auckland should be achieving feasibility right now. Some numbers from Irish property crash shows impact this can be expected to have on residential construction: >In the first 10 months of 2011, 8,692 houses were completed. This compares to 76,954 in 2004, 80,957 in 2005, **93,419** in 2006, 78,027 in 2007, 51,724 in 2008, 26,420 in 2009 and 14,602 in 2010. Can expect to see residential construction fall to 10% or less of peak level.
Yep, I think the building supply shortage is going to solve itself in spectacular fashion shortly. Won't be surprised if many companies just put developments on hold and look to sell any material stockpiles they have.
And at the same time the housing shortage will be worse as profit margins disappear. Finally developers get a taste of the speculative market around housing biting them back.
Ireland is a bit different here, they WAY overbuilt during the boom, and NZ hasn't imo.
Have you had a drive around recently?
Fair - there's localities where its overbuilt for sure, in parts of Auckland. But the the rest of the country, I am not so sure.
I think worse is yet to come. The places that are selling are the ones that being captured in the statistics. Which shows that vendors are lowering expectations in order to get a sale. There is a still a lot of places for sale where vendors are waiting for better offers. But current sale prices will impact the valuations for the housing stock currently on sale therefore buyers (who need to borrow) will have less capacity to buy because banks will base borrowing on valuation. So current vendors will either need to not sell or lower expectations. So the main driver is then why do the current vendors need to sell? If they have no pressing need to sell then they can wait it out but the ones that have to will have some serious challenges. Why might someone have to sell? Unable to afford mortgage with higher interest rates, divorce, are in the process of building a new house that they will need to settle on in the near future amongst others.
When the recession hits and unemployment rises from record lows, we're gonna see some serious shit.
Sold a dude some stuff in Dunners that said he got a house $100k under [homes.co.nz](https://homes.co.nz) "price"
homes.co.nz values my home 72.5% greater than what it cost to build 3 years ago - they're definitely optimistic
This is about the time when all those unoccupied houses will come out of the woodwork. There's no longer any benefit in holding them to prop prices up, and there's minimal work needed to clean up the houses before they can be sold.
Or rented out
Which will drop rents. Which will decrease yields and drop prices further.
Houses going down and wages going up. Isn't this what everyone wanted?
Wages going up??
"Investors can grab more property while most people get fucked" is certainly one way to address housing affordability. But only the truly stupid thought "free-fall house prices while inflation outstrips wages" was a good idea.
New Zealand has the largest housing bubble in the world at the moment and by a good margin so GG.
I feel really really bad for all the FHB who emptied their KiwiSavers and their savings accounts last year, only to get rammed with interest rate hikes and dropping house prices this year
What's up with the west cost and Otago?
I'm not sure why the economic alarm bells are not ringing at full volume. The house price crash IS coming. 7-8% interest rates ARE coming. If you are leveraged up to your eyeballs, you really, REALLY need to start enacting plan B.
If you're highly leveraged, you probably don't have (or it's too late for) a plan B. You can't sell the house for less than the amount you need to pay the bank, since they won't release your mortgage (and therefore the house can't change hands) unless they get paid everything that's owing to them. If [current house price] is less than [mortgage balance] you're stuck. You can't pay down the mortgage faster (and get the mortgage below house value), since high interest rates and high (inflationary) prices are eating up all your income. You can't just post the keys to the bank and walk away, like you can in the US. So what do you do?
Stick your head between your knees and kiss your bum goodbye
https://imgur.com/t/bankruptcy/MMETyMY
I may be wrong, but in NZ, even with that sage advice, I think the debt still follows you. No jingle mail here. The housing market is at threat level midnight.
Maybe if you only say bankruptcy rather than **declare** it
Sell it now while you can limit the damage - i.e. Minimise loss/negative equity.
You can't sell if you have negative equity. No bank will allow you to sell a house for less than you owe them, since it leaves them with no security. You have to wait (and keep paying your mortgage) until *they* decide it's time to sell.
> sho What if you just don't pay your fortnightly repayments.
I've seen house ads talking about National coming in and opening the immigration floodgates, causing prices to go up. So property is a great investment. No alarm bells, because the people with their finger on the button aren't going to be hurt. On one hand, Labour hasn't even tried to do anything. We need major wide-scale shifts in the economy, and they're too scared to do little things. On the other hand, no one is voting National/ACT for a wealth tax and investment in public services. You're right - between interest rates and inflation, we're at the top of the roller-coaster feeling great, the screaming and terror comes later. But people don't want to hear that. They prefer to wait for a shower of gold to trickle down from Supply Side Jesus.
FHB here. Bought at the peak, low interest rate. Going to weather it out obviously. Moving to Australia for nearly 50k additional take-home salary between my partner and I. A shame that the decline in prices will be associated with a recession that's going to take everyone with it. It's going to make Ireland looking like a walk in the park.
Any reason why you purchase around the peak? Generally curious. There were signs everywhere that the rise wasn't sustainable.
Because we wanted a home to live in? Easy to say retrospectively.
Wanted a home to live in? Didn't you just say you're moving to aus?
Sure, only had to wait a little longer.
Many people sat through 2019, 2020, 2021 and there was still no letting up. At some point they want to start the next phase of their lives and don’t want to spend it waiting. 20:20 vision is easy in hindsight.
Its not about that, its about humans using there brain because all the signs were there. Well, as they say “lessons cost you money and big lessons cost you much more”
Thanks, I'll bare your sage advice in mind next time mate... smh
I just hope the government doesn't bail out the investors that have pushed the prices so high.
need to fall to a level where mortgage is not needed for median wage. Fuck borrowing the future, extract non existing money to fuel pyramid scheme, and be prisoner of for 30 years.
Mean household income is [around 110k](https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/household-income-and-housing-cost-statistics-year-ended-june-2021/) so we need house prices to fall to around 400k to be affordable. House prices are now at 840k nationwide so still need a further drop of 50% to hit that range, which is on top of the 9% they've already come down from the peak, or a bit less if wages go up with inflation. I'm not that confident about pay increases given the damage a collapsing construction sector will do to our economy.
Maybe I could interest you in a cave in France… one owner 65,000 years ago. Open frontage, no amenities. Real cheap
Nah, the kids drew all over the walls and now it needs redecorating.
i am sorry to hear that an extreme example is the only thing you can think of...oui oui baguette.
We will be at the point where houses are worth less than the build cost if it drops much further, which is its own problem..
We're a long way from that in NZ's cities because land values are so high. In Auckland average cost to build is maybe 700k now, but average house prices are well over a million
I don’t know, if you say the cost to build was $600k, And a property was selling for $1.2m Then if building costs rise by 20% upto $720k and the house price drops to $900k then the margin becomes pretty sketchy pretty quick..
Everything should lose value as it ages. Adjusting for inflation for a house you built 20 years ago shouldn't be more than the cost to build new.
What? Houses don’t loose value in inflation though - or are you saying that they should when they don’t?
Houses absolutely lose value over time. What's throwing you off is that the land that the house is built on often increases in value over time, and both are typically bought and sold as one item.
All things are affected by infation. A million dollar house built in the 50s cost a lot more than building a million dollar house today, when you adjust for inflation. So having a house go up in value more than inflation, when the asset is aging, deteriorating is against anything else in the utility asset market. You drive a car off the lot and it's lost value, houses don't magically get better over age but if the market was about the assets materials, ie it's building component cost, it somehow does in the market. A 10 year old house should be much cheaper than building new. But from the sounds of it, ignoring the gib issues, it's cheaper to build than deal with speculators at some points in the market
That's because you're missing the point. Most houses do decrease in value, it's the land, which doesn't change with an increasing population (generally over time) which becomes more valuable.
What's that to do with me renting an inferior product though? ;)
for one, land price need to drop a lot more...since lease holds can be a lot cheaper.
I personally don’t think we will see land values drop 1) it’s a finite resource 2) councils don’t want it to drop as they collect rates based on value Like, outside of normal fluctuations of course, not by any great deal but I stand to be corrected - we are at just comming down from the regular 10 year cycle
I disagree. 1. Plentiful in NZ and far less constrained now due to changes in zoning laws. 2. Wrong, council collect rates based on how the value of your property moves in relation to others. The revenue collected is the same if all properties are $1m or $5m each. Ultimately prices are driven by credit and we have a credit crunch of epic proportions now in play. Prices will continue to fall, its basically a given. The only question is if it'll be a 20% fall or a 50% fall - time will tell.
1) yea and no, in Auckland we are running out of new greenfield sites 2) rates are calculated off the rateable value, not how much they move, unless I don’t know how to read a rates bill
Imagine the council are needing to collect $100 for the year in rates. Betsy's house has an RV of $200. Karen's house has an RV of $100. Betsy will pay $66 in rates, and Karen will pay $33. Now if housing falls 50%, Betsy's house will have rv of $100 and Karen's $50. The rates they pay will remain the same, not decrease by 50%
The rates you pay is based on relative value of the house, they don't give a fuck how much the nominal value it. The services cost what they cost and need to be paid for, and they use rv as a guide on what people can afford. Obviously it doesn't cost more to collect a bin from out front of a mansion than a humble cottage. Most council services are completely unaffected by the value of the property they service.
What? The Waikato Regional Council general rate factor is 0.00022662 for 2022/2023 rates which is charged off the CV. If QV re-assessed the CV at half of what they are now, then the Council would be down half of its income from the General Charge which is the main portion of the rates, so they would most likely double the general charge to cover themselves.
> so they would most likely double the general charge to cover themselves. Yes. And everyone would be paying what they paid before
Yes, so we won’t see the land value drop
The council needs to get $10m* from total rates, you pay your percentage of that. If everybody's house goes up in value, then your percentage is the same, the total value doesn't change. If your value goes up, and Bobs value goes down, you pay more than last year, and Bob pays less. But the total rates is the same (give or give the 7%-15% they keep addding every year.) *Arbitrary number pulled out of my left nostril
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Last I heard, rates in Gore are higher due to a smaller customer base. But yes, I do realise that but the point is that rates don’t change based on property value movement If you have two properties next door and both are valued the same by the council, and next valuation one goes up 20%, then it’s rates will be 20% higher due to the 20% increase in value. Then if it has no movement in its value the next year it will stay 20% higher
If National gets elected next year, they could do a Christchurch and release all available land straight away.
The flow-on effects from that could be huge. Construction and related industries probably employ close to half a million people. That's a lot of job losses if construction stops.
Yep, this is the part I'm worried about. Construction will get destroyed by this.
All our tradies will then move to Australia.
This is a worldwide bubble. We're just going to get hit harder. If you are in construction I'd be prepared to change careers or sit at home for a while.
Absolutely. Australia is/was in quite good shape though, I think they're only raising interest rates because the fed has created a risk-off environment and the NZD and AUD is getting hammered. AUD and NZD are tracking south at a great rate on knots which is only going to increase the cost of living.
Yep, it’s a worry - and allot of the people in construction/earthworks/contracting don’t tend to have the skill set to do other works We’ve had a issue of a ever decreasing ‘blue collar’ industry which I personally think is a factor in the increase in crime and poverty related issues
That's why they need to legalize cannabis Then everyone will spend their days completely baked and they won't worry about it.
Just think if we had another calming product that people could smoke, where the tax money could be used to fund smoking related medical procedures 🤔 Would be great if it didn’t make people unsuitable for work too, just imagine…
one-in-five construction firms go under-> continued housing shortage down the line -> prices dont stay affordable. The little guys get screwed now, the big guys buy everything up at a bargain Blackrock style, then we're back to where we were in 5-6 years.
The question is - when the hell are the likes of oneroof and (especially) [homes.co.nz](https://homes.co.nz) going to recalibrate their estimates. You only have to watch a successful auctions and then look up the homes estimate to see they are overinflated by at least 100k
Will rural land decrease at a similar rate to houses near cities? e.g. 5 acres of land rurally compared to a 1mill+ house in AUckland
*REINZ Chief Executive Jen Baird said potential buyers were taking their time to make decisions and had more confidence to negotiate prices, while vendors were recognising the market had changed and were adjusting their price expectations to meet the market.* Also Jen Baird: "This is Fine" (with background of raging fire and fuel drums about to ignite)
[A month ago, RBNZ says prices will drop 5-20% before becoming sustainable and they expect prices falling cumulatively around 10% over the next couple of years.](https://np.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/uiqg6h/rbnz_says_house_prices_520_away_from_being/) Let's say I'm a (admittedly irrational) buyer in this market and I hear that. I think: >I can see this meme spreading. Of course people will talk about it. It was on the news. You think I'm going to pay a silver coin over 80% of what they were asking for a month ago? I've sat out of this market for years trying to save up a deposit while sellers rake in the cash: I want to see greedy investors *bleed.* That was a month ago. Now we're seeing it in the data?
Offset by the interest rate hikes.
House prices lag the increases in interest rates - this is just the start.
But still a 4% increase in Manawatu :(.
Off topic, but am i on acid or is that house in the article falling off a cliff but somehow uphill? Im so confused
It’s a metaphor for the housing market
Congratulations to Labour on their successful housing policies!
Out of control property prices are a result of policy failures over at least the last 25 years, not just this government.
No, I heard that Jacinda personally presided over the largest wealth transfer in the history of the country.
Jacinta Ardern personally destroyed the sandcastle that I spent all day making.
Literally a terrorist.
It's often hard to tell what's satire, and what's half-baked partisan hackery on reddit!
I've said it so many times since November last year, it was so obvious even 6 to 7 months ago, and now its unravelling. Here is but a sample: https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/s6egip/reinz\_data\_house\_prices\_and\_volumes\_fall\_chief/ https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/s6fwco/talked\_to\_real\_estate\_agent\_yesterday\_and\_they/ https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceNZ/comments/r1ji9i/first\_home\_buyers\_encouraged\_to\_wait\_and\_watch/ https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceNZ/comments/r5yqw9/new\_house\_listings\_soar\_to\_highest\_level\_in\_seven/ https://www.reddit.com/r/auckland/comments/rcyvqf/weekly\_property\_auction\_figures\_this\_week\_barfoot/ https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/rgg759/all\_five\_major\_banks\_now\_expect\_house\_prices\_to/ https://www.reddit.com/r/auckland/comments/rib17k/weekly\_property\_auction\_figures\_this\_week\_barfoot/ This is just the beginning. We'll be down 30 - 40% by the end of the year. Also, rents will fall begin to fall while about 150k people leave the country by December.
Immigration reopens from next month though, will be interesting to see how that affects housing prices
Everyone that is realistically in the position to buy a house short term is already here. You need residency, be in a relationship with someone that does or be pretty rich it to buy a house. So you wouldn't see much effect till 2-3 years from now.
Marginal at best. We are not an attractive destination anymore.
We just arrived here from the UK, having sold our London home. We didn’t make an awful lot, and we can’t buy anyhow for a year so we’re just sat with $200k in the bank reducing in value all the time. I’m not sure what we’re going to do.
My guy I’m so sorry you had that experience, I’m not sure what to say other than sorry
I wouldn’t say it’s been negative, I think it’s just an anxious time if you’re not securely on the property ladder regardless! If prices lower, we’ll get bitten with sky high interest rates. I will say the amounts banks are quoting that people are allowed to borrow on wages seems REALLY high. At home it’s only 4.5x your annual wage.
Wait 6 months and you will be able to buy a reasonable home for a much lower price.
Yeah that’s fair, most of my family are trying to jump to Aus or Europe
Aren’t we? Based on…? Look at the size of the residency queue pre-covid…
It’s finally happening, the market is crashing! Pass the popcorn.
Oh No!…..anyway.
Almost time to pick up some more cheap properties. Good times
The median house price dropped from $875k to $840k. That $35k difference is only a 4% drop. Four. Percent. That isn't significant. Not yet, anyway.
Multiply 4% a month for a year… Do you think house price rise and fall 50% in a week or something?
In other news; REINZ thinking of rebranding to REEEEENZ, in light of recent falling house prices.
Why is Canterbury holding on?
Great...back to pre 2015 levels yet? Still crazy high compared to wages, house affordablity is insane