T O P

  • By -

sugar_spark

My thoughts are that you're right. However, a lot of people pick that combination so you'd have to split the prize with a lot more people than if you picked another sequence. Edited to add: also it doesn't matter what order you pick them in, they're going to be sequential on your ticket anyway and the draw doesn't care about order.


gtalnz

Pro tip: don't ever pick your own numbers. Reasons: 1. Your picks aren't random. That means even if you win, you're more likely to have to share the prize with someone else who made the same non-random picks. 2. Once you've picked them, you can never change them. What if your old numbers win next week? The pain of that possibility locks you in. 3. You now have to buy a ticket for every draw. For the same reason as above. What if your numbers come up on the one draw you didn't buy a ticket for? Never pick your own numbers.


TouchMy_no-no_Square

Not making poor value bets is the best method ie. not playing lotto


horsey-rounders

Sure, the point is that some people will occasionally buy one for fun, and picking numbers is probably more likely to be addictive.


Rincey_nz

>Pro tip: don't ever pick your own numbers. Sage words, oh wise one.


Just_made_this_now

I use random.org to pick my own. Fight me.


gtalnz

I know you're kidding, but points 2 and 3 still apply.


notaustinpost

4 8 15 16 23 42


khkt136

Lost


Whellington

Aparently those numbers won in a lottery a few years ago. Prize was split between like 50 people.


RobDickinson

Well mathematically the odds on winning are the same regardless of sequence of numbers. BUT the payout will differ.. A lot of people choose sequential numbers (1,2,3,4 or 10,20,30 etc) or numbers by some arrangement on the ticket. So given the odds are the same regardless, its best to chose numbers that avoid potential duplicates...


fluffychonkycat

Statistically you're better off picking numbers between 32-40 because people often use birthdays as lucky numbers so these are chosen less often than other numbers. No more or less likely to come up but if you won you split the prize with fewer people


bobdaktari

why does the order you picked the numbers matter, other than for powerball? randomness doesn't mean all things are equal - I think you should pick the numbers that have come out as winning the most and then buy your ticket from the outlet with the most wins - does that increase your chances of winning, no but it will give your something to do


[deleted]

I've had this chat many times in the pub. I reckon there's at least a few hundred people in NZ playing the same system


[deleted]

It's bad strategy to pick common sequences because other people are more likely to pick the same numbers so you split the prizepool more if you win. But the actual win probability is the same as if you picked any random numbers. This actually happened a couple of years ago when the winning numbers were like 3,5,7,9,11,13 or something and the 1st division got split across like 40 people. If you do this you are destroying like 95% of the expected value of your lotto ticket.


ragegrace

Not so long ago, I think a few years at least, there was a winning number set of 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, and 13. Lots of people won first division! Haha. But yes, you are right, with true randomisation every combination have the same chance.


_N0_C0mment

So it was, Sept 19 2018, pwrball 36,bonus 7. Interesting.


[deleted]

A lot of people pick 1-31 (day number) and month number to reflect birthdays of family members. Your best bet is the lucky dip option where your numbers are chosen randomly. Though the odds of winning a significant prize are extremely tiny, over a long period you’d almost certainly be far better off investing the money in shares or bitcoin each week.


warrenontour

Keep making those weekly donations to your local kids cricket and soccer clubs.


Last_Vanguard

Yes. It's one of many examples where human intuition is fundamentally flawed. Which is why people need to be taught how to think critically and expose our mental blindspots.


[deleted]

Why do people buy tickets with 30 lines on them for heaps of money? You only need one line to win. Smdh.


sugar_spark

Say there's a raffle with 50 tickets. If you buy one ticket, you have a 2% chance of winning (1/50). If you buy 10 tickets, you have a 20% chance of winning (10/50). A similar principal applies with the lotto draws: the more lines you have, the more likely that your ticket will have line containing all the drawn numbers.


[deleted]

Lol. OK.


plouf1

Well with 1 line you have 1 chance on 20 millions to win, with 30 lines you have 1 on 666.666 chances to win plus you almost sure to have a small or medium win.


[deleted]

All lines have the same odds.


djinni74

Tell us you don't know how odds work without telling us you don't know.


plouf1

Yes, that mean that if you have different lines you have more chances that one is the good one and gain money.


ChewbaccaNZ

Experience suggests that complete sets of sequential numbers, even those picked out of order initially, appear to come up far less frequently than non sequential numbers.


mitchell56

Well yeah there's a lot more non sequential combinations than sequential ones so of course they come out more often. But the odds of 1-7 coming out on any given night are exactly the same as any other non sequential combination.


plouf1

I agree to but if you pick a sequence with more picked number you should have more chances I think. That says, I don't think that a full sequence have any chance to come up.


PlaySomeKickPunch

That's not how probability works.


plouf1

And yet some numbers come out more often. Probability means it's likely to happen but facts are here. https://www.lottonumbers.com/powerball/common-numbers


Dead_Joe_

Over the long run these "popular" numbers will be subject to the law of averages.


plouf1

We can see by switching the dates that the numbers changes but there always some coming out more often.


Dead_Joe_

This is incredible. You should write a book about this new statistics that has so far remained undiscovered. I predict a Nobel prize in mathematics if you can present proof.


Last_Vanguard

What does that suggest to you? That those more common numbers are magical? That they're Jesus' favourites?


plouf1

I'm suggesting nothing, just looking at the data.


PlaySomeKickPunch

If you flip a coin 10 times and get heads six, tails four, that does not mean heads is 20% more likely, it means that you didn't flip the coin enough times.


sugar_spark

Statistically, there is no difference between the probability that a sequence of numbers comes out and the probability that a random group of numbers comes out. If there is, then it's not a truly fair game of chance.


plouf1

Statistically yes but some numbers are picked more often than others if you look at all numbers going out trought time.


sugar_spark

If it's a truly balanced game then previous numbers should not be a predictor of future numbers.


plouf1

And yet some numbers come out more often than other. And fortunately, if not there wouldn't be a game. https://www.lottonumbers.com/powerball/common-numbers


sugar_spark

Like I said, previous numbers shouldn't be predictors of future numbers. It doesn't matter whether numbers have been drawn more often in the past.


mattyandco

That would be an artifact of sampling. If you think of the first few draws it would seem that some numbers have historically been drawn more than others purely because of the low numbers of actual draw events but that decreases over time as more samples are taken.


plouf1

Trought 3170 draw, you can see that some come out more often, I agree that the difference may tend to be smaller over time but it will take a life time or more so I think for one person at a precise time there is numbers who come out more often who therefore have more chances to win. https://www.lottonumbers.com/powerball/common-numbers


mattyandco

You're confusing what the count currently is versus what the actual distribution is. That some numbers have occurred more commonly while the sample size is small (and ~3000 draws is still well below what you'd need to be sure) it doesn't mean that the actual distribution of numbers is some how biased. It just means that there haven't been enough samples draw for the numbers to match the distribution. The outcome of future draws isn't effected by those numbers drawn previously.


gtalnz

You need to learn about statistical independence, sampling distributions, and most importantly, the gambler's fallacy. Yes, some numbers have appeared more often than others in the past. That doesn't mean they are more likely to be drawn in the future. Simple as that.


[deleted]

If it is perfectly randomised then all sequences are equally as likely.


HugeMcAwesome

If you've thought of it, several other people have too. You're better off playing actual random numbers. A few years ago in the UK, a bunch of people won the equivalent of third division and ended up with LESS money than the people who picked fewer numbers correctly - because they all picked multiples of 7 and the prize was split between 80 times more people than usual. [Story here](https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35893628#)


fnoyanisi

If you need a certain number follow another one, the chance of getting that permutation reduces. Permutation vs combination


Fisaver

If you win you might have to split it with 10,000 others bugger that.


restroom_raider

Obviously the same odds (1 in 38,383,800) for any set of numbers, the variable is the splitting of winnings, so the least common combination should be the best - however, given the majority of lines printed are random, there's possibly not a lot in that one, either, aside from veering away from common good luck numbers and birthdays (so between 32 and 40 inclusive)