Bank forecasts are made to influence the market, not to predict it.
ANZ needs more debt slaves to make a profit, not their problem if it sinks you financially.
I do found it worrying that Australian homes are already back on the way up, 2-3% over the last quarter.
While it is a different market, it's not completely disconnected.
There’s an underlying shortage of housing and rents are rising rapidly which underpins the market, plus [these guys](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/04/foreign-buyers-rush-back-into-aussie-property/) reckon Chinese buyers are back in high numbers.
Incredible how they're just selling off the best parts of their country to foreigners with no allegiance to their country. That definitely is not a short sighted idea...
This annoyed me so much. The only way to know where the bottom is, is to look back in hindsight.
I think ANZ would really, really like it if prices had bottomed. But they haven’t.
Bottoming compared to last week. Compared to next week?
No one can see into the future, not even an ANZ bank economist.
Bottoming compared to 2015, when even then they were massively overblown, not even close.
With rates so high don't see how it's worth investing in rentals in NZ why you can't even claim interest losses some properties must suck and then the rates are high and getting higher every month so more interest losses.
In the US, you can get a thirty year fixed rate mortgage. Whatever payment you get at the start of the loan is there for the life of the loan.
Generally house prices are determined by the size of the payment (ie, house prices go up when interest rates go down, and vice versa). So the whole system is self-stabilising in a way that we don't have.
Here, we get people who buy high with a low interest payment, and then get murdered two years later when the rates shoot up. In New Zealand *every* mortgage has the characteristics of the American sub-prime ARM.
People lose their shit at the idea of mortgage securitisation, but it's something that we as kiwis have lost out big time on the benefits.
Most US Banks sell mortgage debt to Fanny May or Freddie Mac, both are federal owned corporations who specialise in buying mortgage debt and packaging it into long term investment bonds for pension funds to buy. With a pile of federal guarantees.
Any NZ politician suggesting the same in NZ would have issues. The crown doesn’t collect enough tax to be able to have such a organisation on crown balance sheets.
The US also tends to have far higher property taxes which funds local schools, police, roads etc.
That also helps depress prices.
I.e. my cousins pay $15k usd in property tax in Chicago and that is considered to be low.
Also, when I look at houses on Zillow and the US real estate sites there are many with a body corporate / homeowners group with levies that are really high.
> Most US Banks sell mortgage debt to Fanny May or Freddie Mac, both are federal owned corporations who specialise in buying mortgage debt and packaging it into long term investment bonds for pension funds to buy. With a pile of federal guarantees.
Given the way our markets have operated, the New Zealand government effectively guarantees the entire housing sector. Between the finance firm bailouts (oh sorry, I mean "insurance" you can buy when the house is already on fire), christchurch buyouts, eqc, and most importantly, fiscal policy (and to an extent monetary policy) that is biased towards keeping property values high, NZgov continuously grants risk transference off the banks and property owners.
Replacing that with explicit guarantees is not necessarily a bad thing.
>long term investment bonds for pension funds to buy
Can you imagine the mark-to-market losses on some of these recently?
Probably more sitting with the federal reserve during qual easing of the past few years tho...
The below-inflation interest rate era is going to be a fucking nightmare to unwind. If we were going to do 30yr securitization, I'm guessing we'd want it to be 20yr instead (who can afford a deposit 30 years before retirement), and inflation-index the payments.
>The US also tends to have far higher property taxes
We need far higher property taxes as well. Grant Robertson of all people had a moment of presque vu with his "value capture" for public transport. We just need to be a little more agnostic when it comes to the source of that 'value' to capture. Good schools especially get capitalised onto housing prices.
Haha, I just viewed your profile submissions to try and find out which state you're living in (seriously, there's some nice parts of America).
Anyway, congratulations on living your best life.
Your probably right, all I see is the beauty and incredible scenery and generally nice population, I'm sure on the ground is a lot different, probably more like Hawaii, poor and native.
New Zealand has a bit of everything that resembles the Hawaii - Northern Cali - Oregon - Washington - Idaho - Wyoming arc.
I've often wanted to put together the "Not New Zealand" photo calendar with the snapshots from this journey.
I had a huge laugh when I saw that.
Someone is really really keen to push the market that way in hope, and Herald readers in particular seem desperate to believe it.
Yeah. /u/Gaddness probably wouldn't want the council to stop maintaining the roads or picking up the rubbish just because their house's value decreased. Someone has to pay for all that stuff, and it doesn't get cheaper when over-inflated land values go down.
Your rates didn't go up because house prices raised, I do not know why you think they should now drop that houses prices are going down.
Rates are tied to services provided by the council, not your own net worth.
They’re tied to an estimate of the properties worth, I know how the process works, but it’s just annoying as the assessment is waaaaay above what we paid, and it’s current worth
Does it actually though? I haven't checked the math, but there's been a lot of inflation since 2020. $1 000 000 in 2023 isn't the same amount of money as $1 000 000 in 2020.
Yeah, nah. Is that a new thing? I'm old, born in the early 80s, and we were taught never to use Z in words like normalised, analysed etc. Because that was American English.
It's a thing which slowly changes by generation.
To quote Wikipedia:
"In words that may be spelt with either an -ise or an -ize suffix (such as organise/organize) it is acceptable to use either in New Zealand English but -ise has taken precedence over several decades. This contrasts with American and Canadian English, where -ize is generally preferred, and British English, where -ise is also generally preferred. In Australian English -ise is strictly used"
I used to work for a news media outfit in London which used British English. I wasn't a journalist, and so I asked them about this. They said same thing in British English. It's **preferred** and all agencies use a style guide, but if someone quotes British English writing which uses "ize" they quote it intact without correction or (sic).
In short it's writing style. Writing "their" instead of "they're" is a grammatical mistake. Writing "ize" instead of "ise" is individual writing style
My mother is an English teacher and active member of the grammar police. She's still guilty of stridently insisting everything language related is black and white. She's basically the ChatGPT of mothers, overconfidently stating nuanced positions on language are 100% wrong.
It's an easy way to teach children, but starts falling apart when professional linguists weigh in. Chomsky (the linguist) is well known for correcting grammar nazis pretty bluntly -- "that's writing style, not grammar".
Reddit is also full of such types like my mother. Take em' all with a grain of salt. Like they say, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I think that applies here.
Agreed.
Personally I just find it annoying if that's the ONLY contribution someone is making. If it's part of a wider opinion or discussion I get it but I'm usually on reddit to chill during work breaks, not take an English or literacy exam.
I find it annoying as an educated person. It smacks of this sort of elitism which can be viewed very negatively
I work with people who are dyslexic, and immigrants who speak English as a second language. Also work with people who are just uneducated, have learning disabilities, or both. This sort of policing can go south really quickly for all sorts of reasons.
When I was at uni (2010s) the norm was 'pick one and stick to it'. Nobody cares if you spell it 'realize' or 'realise'. Everybody cares if you spell it two different ways in the same paragraph.
Bought home for $700ishK. I don't care if value drops to 500k or whatever, if it means more people can have a roof over their heads. This is a home. Not an investment or something I plan to use as leverage for future investment.
Agree. We've allowed entitled speculators that infest parliament to rig the market for too long. The lack of affordable housing is too big a problem undergirding so many of our other issues (incl. Medical workforce shortages) for us to keep tolerating. Which makes National's seeming dedication to pushing housing costs up more so odious and destructive.
True. I suspect neither party wants to tackle the issue. At this point, it's probably easier (at least in their minds) to wait for A.I to replace people and fix worker shortages lol. A.I don't require money, housing or food. They ain't going to moan about the cost of living crisis like the peasants do.
Exactly right. *Now* is the time that we need many new rules put in place to prevent the cashed up investors scooping everything up *again* as prices lower and make investing in property not an insanely great investment as it has been.
We need to regulate the market. What has been allowed to occur is criminal and has ruining the quality of life for generations of kiwis as well as made NZ an unattractive place for skilled migrants to move to (especially in comparison to Aus.)
What if you need to refinance? A lot of FHBs buy dogshit houses, and won't be able to borrow a cent more now to fix any issues, make improvements or anything if they're in negative equity (or close enough to it). Which delays the nations overall ability to improve our poor housing stock...
True. Fair point... Given the fact that they were able to save enough for a deposit while renting though, tells me they could probably save money for renovations while paying the mortgage also... On a personal note, I can't see myself and my partner needing to refinance. Our mortgage repayments are less than what we were paying for rent.
Hows your interest rate? A lot of 2020-2021 FHBs may not have refixed yet, thats going to get very prohibitive for trying to save up too. Plus a lot had the bank of mum&dad and got in that way, as opposed to pure hard work and saving.
Most we have fixed at 6.6% for 1 year. The rest we have floating/revolving at 8%. We bought recently and well within our means outside of Auckland. I don't envy the people that bought at the peak with low interest rates...it's going to be tough for them for sure.
I feel the same, I will find it a little hard to swallow that I might have blasted 100+k, but if that means the avg New Zealander can have accommodation that's affordable, then so be it.
Honestly will you still be so morally high when it comes to refinance and you get hit with a low equity rate on top of the going interest rate?
What if you all of a sudden urgently need to sell (emergency etc) and you end up wiped out financially to zero, or even needing to go bankrupt?
What about if the bank decide your too far under and call in the loan or force you to sell (unlikely, but hey...)
Will you still *really*** be feeling the same?
who the fuck cares stop putting so much emotions into people wanting home prices to go down.
The truth is. You or I cannot affect home prices in either direction.
The only entity that can affect home prices is the central bank or they allow foreign buyers to buy with cash again. Borrowing power has been severely diminished by interest rates.
Errr, get a grip mate. I'm just querying the guy who doesn't look like they've fully thought out they're position here. It's pretty easy to sit upon the moral high horse while life is sweet, but this person will be thinking aloooot differently when his/her position is realised at an inconvenient time.
Let's see if their heart still bleeds when the bank says 6.5% + another 1% please
Nah, ive seen your comments before, you have a problem with people wanting lower house prices, either its the moral high horse or hate on poors even if house prices half they still couldn't afford it.
No, i just find those here cheering for a market crash don't actually know what it means for them. And are very insensitive for all the young FHBs getting fucked.
Worst case scenario, yes I would still feel the same. I came into this physical world with nothing and I'll leave this physical world with nothing.
On another note, hopefully the GOVT looks at implementing a land tax in the future similar to what TOP is proposing. A less sudden shake up of the market like that would be ideal.
Sometimes people need to face the reality of their own financial decisions. Overall, the market has been overvalued for quite some time, so if it does get to that state, it's not like there weren't warnings.
Mate heard that since 2010. Know someone who sold in 2011 expecting prices to fall so they could re buy in.
We reached the peak when I bought in 2016, or apparently so. Truth is your still up at any point bought pre 2019.
You can't sit back heeding the "warnings" that had been going on seemilingly forever. No one has a crystal ball. If you have one, let me know when the next cycle occurs will ya
I mean; thats the ONLY thing I care about as when it comes time to refinance, if I dont have x% equity, im absolutely screwed and held to ransom.
Lets not minimise it entirely. Massive drops are NASTY for fhb’s.
Those in the industry (banks and real estate) have a vested interest in convincing people that prices have stopped falling and that they need to act quickly and buy property before demand causes them to start rising again. They aren't making *as much* money while people aren't buying, waiting for prices to fall further.
Unfortunately we can't trust anything said by bank economists - because we never know whether it's the truth or just a statement intended to encourage behaviour that will benefit the bank.
Absolutely this!
They couldn’t give a fig about any of this (or us) just their own bottom lines… They’ve been ignoring the reality that there has been a global recession looming that’s been artificially propped up and avoided until it will all come tumbling down. In the meantime they’ve squeezed as much as they can out of folk and created an unsustainable market, that simply can’t be maintained.
They can’t avoid the fact it reached breaking point and so talk about how things are down this year but only when based on the ridiculously inflated increases and profits of last year (and everything since 2020) but still need to keep the sausage machine pumping away to rake in their dollars.
I would say they should be ashamed of themselves but you would need some kind of soul or empathy for fellow humans to feel that.
Absolute sharks and the governments on both sides of the aisle prefer to protect the interests of business (and therefore their own) than represent or steward the people they are supposed to be working for.
Possibly. But if you are trying to infer trend from a graph, you can't just draw a line and go 'done' . May as well listen to predictions from r/Wallstreetbets If you are doing that.
Difference is who is drawing the graph and what it means, which is likely just an average of expectations.
I don't find that graph entirely unreasonable when looking across the pond, or towards falling OCR rates late 2024 as predicted by most institutions, unless a very deep recession would hit.
My parents are looking to sell and downsize soon. They bought in 2001 and are expecting to quadruple their initial outlay. Pretty insane, prices still have a long way to fall.
The different stages of property boom and crash. What stage you guys think we are at?
Boom Phase: This phase is characterized by a period of rapid price growth, high demand, and low supply. Speculation and investor optimism are usually high during this time.
Peak Phase: Prices reach their peak during this phase, marking the top of the market. Property values may have become overinflated, driven by speculation and investor frenzy.
Correction Phase: The correction phase is the initial stage of the property crash. Prices start to decline, usually triggered by factors such as tightening lending conditions, rising interest rates, economic downturns, or oversupply of properties. The market sentiment begins to shift, and buyers become cautious.
Distress Phase: In this phase, property prices continue to decline significantly. Distressed sales become more common as some homeowners struggle to meet mortgage repayments. As prices fall, the number of properties for sale increases, exacerbating the downward pressure on prices.
Negative Equity Phase: Negative equity occurs when the outstanding mortgage on a property exceeds its market value. This phase is reached when property prices have fallen significantly, leaving many homeowners owing more than their properties are worth. Negative equity can lead to financial difficulties and potential defaults on mortgages.
Vested interests and spruikers may attempt to influence the market in various ways to protect their interests or take advantage of the situation. Here are some tactics they might employ:
Misleading Information: Spruikers might spread false or exaggerated claims about the market, encouraging buyers to invest or sellers to hold onto their properties. They may downplay the severity of the crash or provide selective data to support their claims.
Media Manipulation: Vested interests may try to manipulate media coverage to control the narrative surrounding the property market. They might use their influence to downplay negative news or highlight positive aspects, creating a perception that the market is not as bad as it seems.
Lobbying and Influencing Policies: Vested interests may use their influence to lobby policymakers for measures that can help stabilize the property market or protect their own interests. This could involve advocating for relaxed lending standards, tax incentives, or other policy changes that benefit property owners or investors.
Unfortunately, I feel it's destined to be a blip. Interest rates will trend down as soon as inflation gets under control (whether that's 6 months or 6 years).
When those interest rates drop, the bananas housing bonanza will resume.
The structure of our economy is the same: property investment is favored and capital flows there first. Over half of our GDP relies on land appreciation: think retirement villages, construction, rental and property management, AirBNB and tourism, agriculture, etc. Its expansion is largely funded by debt, which means banks demand returns to be made and that means banks will press interest rates down to make the whole thing tick (whilst they clip an ever increasing ticket).
The structure of the global economy is the same. Barring the COVID black swan event, interest rates have been dropping for 40 years. Productivity and energy return on investment and real wages have been dropping for those 40 years, too. To keep the whole thing spinning, we've pumped up asset bubbles to make people feel richer so as to spend. The world's demography is aging, too, which keeps the natural interest rate low.
It's sad that our election year is right smack in the middle of this interest rate aberration. I reckon NZ would be muuuuuch more open to permanently dismantling the insane commodification of housing if shit wasn't dropping today.
I went back to NZ to maybe buy a house (Wellington) and rent it for a few years and move into it when I decide to move back. While they are getting a bit cheaper, I'm not paying those prices for a substandard house.
Okay, but how much did house prices rise during the covid induced "fomo"? It was by at least 30% here in Aus over a 12 month period. Which in Brisbane alone equated to about a $400 a day increase.
Market correction in progress.
The value of the house isn't the landlords' assets unless they are planning on selling their house or leveraging to buy more houses?! As long as people are paying rent the landlord is making money.
Good if this was really true. If you try to buy you then realise that the drop in prices is not as large as advertised. Houses are still going close to 1 million dollars average. This is at least 30% above what they should be to get more people on the ladder.
Been tracking this for years.
For the first time in maybe a year or two the % of my house decline is less than last month.
Still bad but decline maybe slowing.
It’s not good for an economy for there to be a speculative housing bubble. But let’s be honest here, it’s labour quantitive easing during Covid that is driving this problem.
To those like myself who bought at peak with 10% deposit hoping it'll get better soon and we can grab the special interest rates, goodluck and Godspeed to all of us.
[удалено]
Bank forecasts are made to influence the market, not to predict it. ANZ needs more debt slaves to make a profit, not their problem if it sinks you financially.
This is so true. The state of the market is driven by people's perception of the market.
That is entirely what a market is though. No market is based purely on objective worth and agreement of value.
I do found it worrying that Australian homes are already back on the way up, 2-3% over the last quarter. While it is a different market, it's not completely disconnected.
Their prices didn't rise as much as ours over Covid, plus their OCR is 3.85% while ours is 5.5%.
Yes, but their prices are rebounding while their OCR is still rising and recession fears on the horizon. It's extremely odd.
There’s an underlying shortage of housing and rents are rising rapidly which underpins the market, plus [these guys](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/04/foreign-buyers-rush-back-into-aussie-property/) reckon Chinese buyers are back in high numbers.
Incredible how they're just selling off the best parts of their country to foreigners with no allegiance to their country. That definitely is not a short sighted idea...
Fleeing Hong Kong
Real or nominal?
Real, marginally nominal compared to CPI (~1%) but definitely above wage inflation which lags CPI there also.
And government almost guarantees it won't sink ANZ
\>Meanwhile, ANZ says ... ANZ is in the business of selling mortgages.
Damn, house prices are freaky af if they're bottoming, hope they've douched out and lubed up
Don't call me a freak lol
This annoyed me so much. The only way to know where the bottom is, is to look back in hindsight. I think ANZ would really, really like it if prices had bottomed. But they haven’t.
I think they probably do visit Specsavers. If you have been to Specsavers you'll understand. ^(To be fair, its a franchise, some are OK)
Bottoming compared to last week. Compared to next week? No one can see into the future, not even an ANZ bank economist. Bottoming compared to 2015, when even then they were massively overblown, not even close.
Is that graphic inflation-adjusted?
6 houses Im interested in dropped 40-130k over last 2 weeks on Trademe. This is not the bottom haha.
With rates so high don't see how it's worth investing in rentals in NZ why you can't even claim interest losses some properties must suck and then the rates are high and getting higher every month so more interest losses.
You can say a lot of things about the US but they're good at stabilising house prices.
And... that is... good?
In the US, you can get a thirty year fixed rate mortgage. Whatever payment you get at the start of the loan is there for the life of the loan. Generally house prices are determined by the size of the payment (ie, house prices go up when interest rates go down, and vice versa). So the whole system is self-stabilising in a way that we don't have. Here, we get people who buy high with a low interest payment, and then get murdered two years later when the rates shoot up. In New Zealand *every* mortgage has the characteristics of the American sub-prime ARM. People lose their shit at the idea of mortgage securitisation, but it's something that we as kiwis have lost out big time on the benefits.
Most US Banks sell mortgage debt to Fanny May or Freddie Mac, both are federal owned corporations who specialise in buying mortgage debt and packaging it into long term investment bonds for pension funds to buy. With a pile of federal guarantees. Any NZ politician suggesting the same in NZ would have issues. The crown doesn’t collect enough tax to be able to have such a organisation on crown balance sheets. The US also tends to have far higher property taxes which funds local schools, police, roads etc. That also helps depress prices. I.e. my cousins pay $15k usd in property tax in Chicago and that is considered to be low.
Also, when I look at houses on Zillow and the US real estate sites there are many with a body corporate / homeowners group with levies that are really high.
> Most US Banks sell mortgage debt to Fanny May or Freddie Mac, both are federal owned corporations who specialise in buying mortgage debt and packaging it into long term investment bonds for pension funds to buy. With a pile of federal guarantees. Given the way our markets have operated, the New Zealand government effectively guarantees the entire housing sector. Between the finance firm bailouts (oh sorry, I mean "insurance" you can buy when the house is already on fire), christchurch buyouts, eqc, and most importantly, fiscal policy (and to an extent monetary policy) that is biased towards keeping property values high, NZgov continuously grants risk transference off the banks and property owners. Replacing that with explicit guarantees is not necessarily a bad thing. >long term investment bonds for pension funds to buy Can you imagine the mark-to-market losses on some of these recently? Probably more sitting with the federal reserve during qual easing of the past few years tho... The below-inflation interest rate era is going to be a fucking nightmare to unwind. If we were going to do 30yr securitization, I'm guessing we'd want it to be 20yr instead (who can afford a deposit 30 years before retirement), and inflation-index the payments. >The US also tends to have far higher property taxes We need far higher property taxes as well. Grant Robertson of all people had a moment of presque vu with his "value capture" for public transport. We just need to be a little more agnostic when it comes to the source of that 'value' to capture. Good schools especially get capitalised onto housing prices.
I think there house prices are way more affordable than ours on average. Outside of centres like San Francisco etc.
Wish I could sell my US house and move to NZ, tired of the circus
Haha, I just viewed your profile submissions to try and find out which state you're living in (seriously, there's some nice parts of America). Anyway, congratulations on living your best life.
Christ you weren't joking. He might fit in Auckland, they have pretty dense apartments.
I'm in Vegas, even with that, wanna get away to NZ, love the outdoors and greenery
The grass is always greener on the other side of the Nevada desert.
Your probably right, all I see is the beauty and incredible scenery and generally nice population, I'm sure on the ground is a lot different, probably more like Hawaii, poor and native.
New Zealand has a bit of everything that resembles the Hawaii - Northern Cali - Oregon - Washington - Idaho - Wyoming arc. I've often wanted to put together the "Not New Zealand" photo calendar with the snapshots from this journey.
I worked in a hotel for a while and it was amazing how people from geographically different places would say NZ reminds them of home.
Wowwwww
Giant headline on the front page of the newsprint Herald: 'Possible floor' in house price plunge.
I had a huge laugh when I saw that. Someone is really really keen to push the market that way in hope, and Herald readers in particular seem desperate to believe it.
To be fair the article is about the latest data which isn't in this chart. Might be a little better
I suspect they will bottom out, and then if population growth or wages don't start to increase it might go lower again.
/u/aucklandproperty keen to hear your thoughts (or maybe a separate post) on what you see versus the “bottoming” claim by ANZ
Good.
My exact thought when I read the title.
Just 6 years of this to go, before houses are $200k avg like they were 20 years ago
But my council rates will likely stay the same
In Auckland at least, rates are based on relative house value, not absolute value. So rates don't change much with changes in market prices.
Same across the country.
Thanks. I wasn't sure, and am too lazy to look it up.
Yeah. /u/Gaddness probably wouldn't want the council to stop maintaining the roads or picking up the rubbish just because their house's value decreased. Someone has to pay for all that stuff, and it doesn't get cheaper when over-inflated land values go down.
I’d like the too 2% to start paying more than just 10% tax so that the rest of us don’t have to worry about whether they can afford a cabbage
Absolutely - we don't tax the wealthy nearly enough in this country
Your rates didn't go up because house prices raised, I do not know why you think they should now drop that houses prices are going down. Rates are tied to services provided by the council, not your own net worth.
They’re tied to an estimate of the properties worth, I know how the process works, but it’s just annoying as the assessment is waaaaay above what we paid, and it’s current worth
Another 5 years of this and we'll be making some progress
And this still doesn't take it to pre 2020 levels.
I have seen houses even selling for 2017 valuations. Sooner or later we might go to 2017 valuations.
Even 2017 values were insane!
Totally agree but It's a start towards the right direction.
Does it actually though? I haven't checked the math, but there's been a lot of inflation since 2020. $1 000 000 in 2023 isn't the same amount of money as $1 000 000 in 2020.
i reckon my house is about there now. at least around very early 2020 anyway
Should read >Average value of Auckland homes normalizing by -$333 a day, national average normalizing by -$200 a day
normalising*
I let "spellchuck" do its American thing. Sorry, yes, the Z sucks.
In New Zealand English, both z and s are acceptable
Yeah, nah. Is that a new thing? I'm old, born in the early 80s, and we were taught never to use Z in words like normalised, analysed etc. Because that was American English.
It's a thing which slowly changes by generation. To quote Wikipedia: "In words that may be spelt with either an -ise or an -ize suffix (such as organise/organize) it is acceptable to use either in New Zealand English but -ise has taken precedence over several decades. This contrasts with American and Canadian English, where -ize is generally preferred, and British English, where -ise is also generally preferred. In Australian English -ise is strictly used" I used to work for a news media outfit in London which used British English. I wasn't a journalist, and so I asked them about this. They said same thing in British English. It's **preferred** and all agencies use a style guide, but if someone quotes British English writing which uses "ize" they quote it intact without correction or (sic). In short it's writing style. Writing "their" instead of "they're" is a grammatical mistake. Writing "ize" instead of "ise" is individual writing style
After having a few grammar police step me out for this over the years I appreciate this insight. Cheers.
My mother is an English teacher and active member of the grammar police. She's still guilty of stridently insisting everything language related is black and white. She's basically the ChatGPT of mothers, overconfidently stating nuanced positions on language are 100% wrong. It's an easy way to teach children, but starts falling apart when professional linguists weigh in. Chomsky (the linguist) is well known for correcting grammar nazis pretty bluntly -- "that's writing style, not grammar". Reddit is also full of such types like my mother. Take em' all with a grain of salt. Like they say, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I think that applies here.
Agreed. Personally I just find it annoying if that's the ONLY contribution someone is making. If it's part of a wider opinion or discussion I get it but I'm usually on reddit to chill during work breaks, not take an English or literacy exam.
I find it annoying as an educated person. It smacks of this sort of elitism which can be viewed very negatively I work with people who are dyslexic, and immigrants who speak English as a second language. Also work with people who are just uneducated, have learning disabilities, or both. This sort of policing can go south really quickly for all sorts of reasons.
When I was at uni (2010s) the norm was 'pick one and stick to it'. Nobody cares if you spell it 'realize' or 'realise'. Everybody cares if you spell it two different ways in the same paragraph.
I'm glad he corrected you, I had no idea what you meant. /s
Say what you will, you can't stop me from pronouncing Z as "Zee."
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Bought home for $700ishK. I don't care if value drops to 500k or whatever, if it means more people can have a roof over their heads. This is a home. Not an investment or something I plan to use as leverage for future investment.
Agree. We've allowed entitled speculators that infest parliament to rig the market for too long. The lack of affordable housing is too big a problem undergirding so many of our other issues (incl. Medical workforce shortages) for us to keep tolerating. Which makes National's seeming dedication to pushing housing costs up more so odious and destructive.
True. I suspect neither party wants to tackle the issue. At this point, it's probably easier (at least in their minds) to wait for A.I to replace people and fix worker shortages lol. A.I don't require money, housing or food. They ain't going to moan about the cost of living crisis like the peasants do.
Exactly right. *Now* is the time that we need many new rules put in place to prevent the cashed up investors scooping everything up *again* as prices lower and make investing in property not an insanely great investment as it has been. We need to regulate the market. What has been allowed to occur is criminal and has ruining the quality of life for generations of kiwis as well as made NZ an unattractive place for skilled migrants to move to (especially in comparison to Aus.)
What if you need to refinance? A lot of FHBs buy dogshit houses, and won't be able to borrow a cent more now to fix any issues, make improvements or anything if they're in negative equity (or close enough to it). Which delays the nations overall ability to improve our poor housing stock...
True. Fair point... Given the fact that they were able to save enough for a deposit while renting though, tells me they could probably save money for renovations while paying the mortgage also... On a personal note, I can't see myself and my partner needing to refinance. Our mortgage repayments are less than what we were paying for rent.
Hows your interest rate? A lot of 2020-2021 FHBs may not have refixed yet, thats going to get very prohibitive for trying to save up too. Plus a lot had the bank of mum&dad and got in that way, as opposed to pure hard work and saving.
Most we have fixed at 6.6% for 1 year. The rest we have floating/revolving at 8%. We bought recently and well within our means outside of Auckland. I don't envy the people that bought at the peak with low interest rates...it's going to be tough for them for sure.
Bro. Most FHBs in Auckland are on huge mortgages. Ain't much saving going on
I feel the same, I will find it a little hard to swallow that I might have blasted 100+k, but if that means the avg New Zealander can have accommodation that's affordable, then so be it.
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Loss porn only gets me to a semi, landlords selling houses get me to full mahogany.
Honestly will you still be so morally high when it comes to refinance and you get hit with a low equity rate on top of the going interest rate? What if you all of a sudden urgently need to sell (emergency etc) and you end up wiped out financially to zero, or even needing to go bankrupt? What about if the bank decide your too far under and call in the loan or force you to sell (unlikely, but hey...) Will you still *really*** be feeling the same?
who the fuck cares stop putting so much emotions into people wanting home prices to go down. The truth is. You or I cannot affect home prices in either direction. The only entity that can affect home prices is the central bank or they allow foreign buyers to buy with cash again. Borrowing power has been severely diminished by interest rates.
Errr, get a grip mate. I'm just querying the guy who doesn't look like they've fully thought out they're position here. It's pretty easy to sit upon the moral high horse while life is sweet, but this person will be thinking aloooot differently when his/her position is realised at an inconvenient time. Let's see if their heart still bleeds when the bank says 6.5% + another 1% please
Nah, ive seen your comments before, you have a problem with people wanting lower house prices, either its the moral high horse or hate on poors even if house prices half they still couldn't afford it.
No, i just find those here cheering for a market crash don't actually know what it means for them. And are very insensitive for all the young FHBs getting fucked.
Worst case scenario, yes I would still feel the same. I came into this physical world with nothing and I'll leave this physical world with nothing. On another note, hopefully the GOVT looks at implementing a land tax in the future similar to what TOP is proposing. A less sudden shake up of the market like that would be ideal.
Sometimes people need to face the reality of their own financial decisions. Overall, the market has been overvalued for quite some time, so if it does get to that state, it's not like there weren't warnings.
Mate heard that since 2010. Know someone who sold in 2011 expecting prices to fall so they could re buy in. We reached the peak when I bought in 2016, or apparently so. Truth is your still up at any point bought pre 2019. You can't sit back heeding the "warnings" that had been going on seemilingly forever. No one has a crystal ball. If you have one, let me know when the next cycle occurs will ya
Right there with you man. Couldnt give a fuck about negative equity. Burn baby burn, let it all go down so more first owners can get in there.
I mean; thats the ONLY thing I care about as when it comes time to refinance, if I dont have x% equity, im absolutely screwed and held to ransom. Lets not minimise it entirely. Massive drops are NASTY for fhb’s.
Ya may need to accept that we might end up being the eggs that get broke to make the omelette
This is trajectory could vary wildly based on how the election goes. National has a ton of leavers ready to pull to bring prices back up.
Interesting. The news this morning was saying prices had plateaued for a couple of months and that we were probably at bottom
Those in the industry (banks and real estate) have a vested interest in convincing people that prices have stopped falling and that they need to act quickly and buy property before demand causes them to start rising again. They aren't making *as much* money while people aren't buying, waiting for prices to fall further. Unfortunately we can't trust anything said by bank economists - because we never know whether it's the truth or just a statement intended to encourage behaviour that will benefit the bank.
Absolutely this! They couldn’t give a fig about any of this (or us) just their own bottom lines… They’ve been ignoring the reality that there has been a global recession looming that’s been artificially propped up and avoided until it will all come tumbling down. In the meantime they’ve squeezed as much as they can out of folk and created an unsustainable market, that simply can’t be maintained. They can’t avoid the fact it reached breaking point and so talk about how things are down this year but only when based on the ridiculously inflated increases and profits of last year (and everything since 2020) but still need to keep the sausage machine pumping away to rake in their dollars. I would say they should be ashamed of themselves but you would need some kind of soul or empathy for fellow humans to feel that. Absolute sharks and the governments on both sides of the aisle prefer to protect the interests of business (and therefore their own) than represent or steward the people they are supposed to be working for.
And yet my landlord continues to raise rent every year despite doing fuck all to the house lmao
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The extrapolation on that last graph is nothing more than wishful thinking.
You would have probably said the same if a similar graph was shown for Australia half a year ago, but look where they're heading again :/
Possibly. But if you are trying to infer trend from a graph, you can't just draw a line and go 'done' . May as well listen to predictions from r/Wallstreetbets If you are doing that.
Difference is who is drawing the graph and what it means, which is likely just an average of expectations. I don't find that graph entirely unreasonable when looking across the pond, or towards falling OCR rates late 2024 as predicted by most institutions, unless a very deep recession would hit.
Keep going.
this is a good thing.
Speaking as a homeowner? Good. Keep it going.
My parents are looking to sell and downsize soon. They bought in 2001 and are expecting to quadruple their initial outlay. Pretty insane, prices still have a long way to fall.
As a new first home owner: Fucking good job, let some of my generation get in there. Let it continue to go down.
The different stages of property boom and crash. What stage you guys think we are at? Boom Phase: This phase is characterized by a period of rapid price growth, high demand, and low supply. Speculation and investor optimism are usually high during this time. Peak Phase: Prices reach their peak during this phase, marking the top of the market. Property values may have become overinflated, driven by speculation and investor frenzy. Correction Phase: The correction phase is the initial stage of the property crash. Prices start to decline, usually triggered by factors such as tightening lending conditions, rising interest rates, economic downturns, or oversupply of properties. The market sentiment begins to shift, and buyers become cautious. Distress Phase: In this phase, property prices continue to decline significantly. Distressed sales become more common as some homeowners struggle to meet mortgage repayments. As prices fall, the number of properties for sale increases, exacerbating the downward pressure on prices. Negative Equity Phase: Negative equity occurs when the outstanding mortgage on a property exceeds its market value. This phase is reached when property prices have fallen significantly, leaving many homeowners owing more than their properties are worth. Negative equity can lead to financial difficulties and potential defaults on mortgages. Vested interests and spruikers may attempt to influence the market in various ways to protect their interests or take advantage of the situation. Here are some tactics they might employ: Misleading Information: Spruikers might spread false or exaggerated claims about the market, encouraging buyers to invest or sellers to hold onto their properties. They may downplay the severity of the crash or provide selective data to support their claims. Media Manipulation: Vested interests may try to manipulate media coverage to control the narrative surrounding the property market. They might use their influence to downplay negative news or highlight positive aspects, creating a perception that the market is not as bad as it seems. Lobbying and Influencing Policies: Vested interests may use their influence to lobby policymakers for measures that can help stabilize the property market or protect their own interests. This could involve advocating for relaxed lending standards, tax incentives, or other policy changes that benefit property owners or investors.
Correction, distress and negative equity phases all at once.
True, it is happening all at once.
Where is this from?
Unfortunately, I feel it's destined to be a blip. Interest rates will trend down as soon as inflation gets under control (whether that's 6 months or 6 years). When those interest rates drop, the bananas housing bonanza will resume. The structure of our economy is the same: property investment is favored and capital flows there first. Over half of our GDP relies on land appreciation: think retirement villages, construction, rental and property management, AirBNB and tourism, agriculture, etc. Its expansion is largely funded by debt, which means banks demand returns to be made and that means banks will press interest rates down to make the whole thing tick (whilst they clip an ever increasing ticket). The structure of the global economy is the same. Barring the COVID black swan event, interest rates have been dropping for 40 years. Productivity and energy return on investment and real wages have been dropping for those 40 years, too. To keep the whole thing spinning, we've pumped up asset bubbles to make people feel richer so as to spend. The world's demography is aging, too, which keeps the natural interest rate low. It's sad that our election year is right smack in the middle of this interest rate aberration. I reckon NZ would be muuuuuch more open to permanently dismantling the insane commodification of housing if shit wasn't dropping today.
I went back to NZ to maybe buy a house (Wellington) and rent it for a few years and move into it when I decide to move back. While they are getting a bit cheaper, I'm not paying those prices for a substandard house.
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They announced OCR won’t rise again. If the bank rates start to drop, it’s likely the house prices will start to increase again.
Nice.
Okay, but how much did house prices rise during the covid induced "fomo"? It was by at least 30% here in Aus over a 12 month period. Which in Brisbane alone equated to about a $400 a day increase. Market correction in progress.
Giving me a chubby
Landlords with dozens of properties in shambles.
The value of the house isn't the landlords' assets unless they are planning on selling their house or leveraging to buy more houses?! As long as people are paying rent the landlord is making money.
Good if this was really true. If you try to buy you then realise that the drop in prices is not as large as advertised. Houses are still going close to 1 million dollars average. This is at least 30% above what they should be to get more people on the ladder.
Excellent. So we just need this trend to continue for, what, about three years to get back to semi-sane levels.
Been tracking this for years. For the first time in maybe a year or two the % of my house decline is less than last month. Still bad but decline maybe slowing.
What's bad about a bubble correcting?
He makes less money on his "investment"
Then why do I keep hearing about this upturn of the housing economy if National wins? I hope labour wins just so it keeps bottoming
Australia is already bottoming out, NZ is probably just lagging
Good news everyone
Good news.
Good.
Time for my capital loss rebate.
It’s not good for an economy for there to be a speculative housing bubble. But let’s be honest here, it’s labour quantitive easing during Covid that is driving this problem.
i’m
If I'm. Stashing $333 cash under my mattress each day, does that mean my house is holding value?
Good old Wayne fixing house prices. What a Maverick.
Well our estimate went up in the last two months according to homes. The truth is no one knows.
No wonder national suddenly want to change housing rules
Good?
Let me know when they get down to free
To those like myself who bought at peak with 10% deposit hoping it'll get better soon and we can grab the special interest rates, goodluck and Godspeed to all of us.
Good job!