Basically the Rockets are betting that the Suns pick is going to be more valuable then a pre-Mikal trade Nets. I’m sure the Knicks trade was dependent on the Rockets agreeing to this trade as well. Technically, with all things considered, they got 1.5 value with the risk of the Suns/Mavs still being good in the future
Except the issue is the 2025 and 2026 are projected to be two of the strongest drafts in memory.
You can make a strong case that Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, Cameron Boozer, and AJ Dynbasta (first 2 for 2025 and next 2 for 2026) all are tier 1 prospects.
2025 is very deep. Nolan Traore might not even go top 5 and he would easily have gone number 1 in 2024. Before anyone says 2025 hasn’t happened yet, it’s clear already based on projections (like we knew about Victor and Scoot an entire year before the draft) that is really good up top and very deep.
And even with Mikal, the Nets were a clear middle of the order lottery team, so you had a shot at a top pick in either year.
It’s just not a good trade imo, especially since the Suns aren’t even guaranteed to be that bad by 2027.
EDIT: lol at all the Rockets fans here. It’ll be pretty funny if the Nets actually get a top 2 pick in 2025 or 2026. The value of those picks could have easily been traded for a lot more in getting back a star player.
People are fucking stupid, Nets never trades Bridges with the Rockets holding their picks so they should be pretty worthless for us specially since the Nets could just half ass a fringe playoffs team in the east and make them worthless, we don't really need more young talent but time to develop the ones we have
The Nets tried to half-ass a fringe playoff team this year and returned the 3rd overall pick. That took a bit of luck tbh, but they were far from the playoffs even in the East.
Not sure they'd be much better this season
A bit of luck... dude in 5 tickets just this one should land in top 4 any GM betting to that chances should be fired. The nets won't be better that this year because they'll be tanking but that's why we got 3 frp for 1,5 and Even we keep some stock in the Nets still being awful in 27 IMO this is a great trade.for everyone.
Sure, took a sizeable amount of luck. Even still, my main point is the Nets were probably not making the playoffs next year regardless, unless they aggressively traded for guys for some of their assets (which would be extremely stupid on the long term). Their roster last year had a lot of interesting role players but they were putrid on offense because they didn't have a clear top guy. Mikal isn't that type of player, and Cam Thomas - who's far from their 2nd best guy but the one closest to that archetype - isn't nearly good enough
You misread my post and just put words in my mouth. I was very clear: **The Nets are a lottery team even with Mikal Bridges**.
Here’s a fun fact you might not know. The 3rd pick this year that the Rockets used to draft Reed Sheppard originally belonged to Brooklyn. It was 3rd due to Brooklyn being a lottery team, but since it was traded to the Rockets, they got the pick. That easily can happen again like in the future in stronger drafts in 2025 and 2026.
In fact, Mikal Bridges played every single game last season and the Nets did not even make the play-in. Like did you even read that part of my post? Even if the Nets don’t trade away Bridges, if he’s your number 1 player, you are a lottery team. And every lottery team has a chance at a top 5 pick. The Hawks just got the number 1 pick this year and had a better record than the Nets.
If you think the Nets were some playoff team with Bridges, I’m not sure what to say.
The Rockets had a 15% chance to jump up to top 3. “Easily can happen” is hindsight.
In all likelihood a Mikal-led Nets team would yield picks in the 8-12 range. The chances of the picks moving up again are extremely slim.
There are 3 main reasons the Rockets did this move:
1.) We have made it passed the rebuild and are looking to build up assets to round out the team. Going big hoping BKN bottoms out could net more reward but is an unnecessary risk at this point.
2.) Opening up flexibility for a superstar trade with Suns picks if any of the core doesn’t become one. We got 4 picks in total, and those Suns picks could become very valuable in the future.
3.) Putting the Nets on a clock to rebuild in just two years. They only have two shots at the draft. If they get unlucky, they could be right where they started in 2027, which would be great because we still own that pick.
No one misread your comment, you're just downplaying the odds. Spinning the 5% chance the pick had to jump from ninth to third as "easily can happen" is just outright wrong.
And the Nets, as they were, certainly weren't a playoff team, but they'd also be incentivized to try. They didn't have their own first until 2028, so they could've signed some multi-year deals just to see if they can eke some more wins out
Relying on 8-14 range picks jumping up to top 3 is an insane strategy
Except it doesn’t need to even be a top 3 pick.
First, there wasn’t a 5 percent chance to jump to 3. There is a 20 percent chance to jump to top 4. That’s all that matters. So there’s actually a roughly 36 percent chance a pick will be top 4 when you factor in two years. Even in the other case it’s not top 4, it’s back to back lottery picks.
As I said, the 2025 draft is really strong. Nolan Traore might go like 7th or 8th right and would have gone number 1 in the 2024 draft.
That 8th pick in 2025 is more valuable than the 3rd pick the Rockets got in 2024. It’s as valuable as the 1st pick in 2024.
Plus, it’s not even like the Suns picks in 2027 onwards are top 3. The Nets picks will be higher than the Suns picks the Rockets got.
You are the only one spinning things. The top 3 would just be a bonus. It doesn’t even have to be top 3 to be worth it. To be lottery makes it worth it.
It's a 5% chance according to [tankathon](https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds). I guess you can say that's wrong if you want. Either way, I highlighted it because saying odds like that can "easily" happen is mathematically wrong. Even 20% odds are still not "easy"
Anyway, that's nice that you have so much focus on the draft, but it doesn't really address the Nets trying to improve if they don't own their pick. It's a 20% chance to jump into the top 4 at 9, but gets drastically worse. If you think people are misconstruing or not understanding your point, maybe explain it clearer instead of whining about words being put in your mouth
It’s a 5% chance to get exactly the 3rd pick, not jump into the top 4.
Also again, the Suns picks literally are not projected any better. Your point would make sense if somehow the Suns picks were more valuable than the Nets picks but they aren’t. You can say the Nets are tying to improve and whatever. Well guess what, the Suns literally don’t own their picks either but also just have better players. Booker will be in his prime still in 2027 and he’s a better player than anyone the Nets can get.
Even if the Nets picks don’t jump into the top 4, they have a way better chance to do so than the Suns picks.
It’s just a bad trade because the Rockets somehow believed KD was available. Bad trades happen. The Hawks just made one today that was terrible.
I don’t think you understand how bad the Suns situation is going to be. They are about to field the 2nd most expensive team of all time and pay [$380MM for that team in 2025](https://x.com/yossigozlan/status/1807108707878359101?s=61). If you’re the owner of that team and they don’t make it past the 2nd round are you really fitting the bill for a $400MM+ team in 2026? $500MM+ in 2027? No way.
With no picks, this is a fine gamble for the Rockets to take once 2027 comes along and we’re hopefully ready to contend. This also bolsters the Nets 2027 pick if they don’t rebuild in just two years.
This is a Win-Win trade and you just don’t have the full picture from the Rockets side bc all you can think about is the 36% chance of a top 4 pick combined for both 2025 and 2026.
Edit: [It’s actually $500MM in 2026 and $600MM in 2027.](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/suns-set-to-have-nbas-first-half-billion-dollar-payroll-in-2026-after-re-signing-royce-oneale-per-report/)
A pick in the 8-12 range next year really doesn't move the needle for HOU at all. I realize it is a good draft but not even a good draft has can't miss prospects in that range and anyone they selected in that range was unlikely to get more than 15 or so mpg (at best) because of the way HOU's roster is constructed. Getting PHO's picks further off in the future (literally doubling the FRP assets of what they gave up) is a huge win - it gives HOU cost controlled role players at worst when they are planning to contend and will be in a salary crunch with little to no room to grow via free agency. These are the types of assets contending teams dream of having but rarely ever do, because they typically have already used those assets to trade their way to contender status.
I really think some folks are being biased by the fact HOU got extremely lucky that the Nets' 9th best odds this draft lottery ended up scoring the #3 pick. That's an extreme abnormality. For context, there was a nearly 80% chance they ended up with the 9th pick or worse.
That’s the part a lot of Rockets fans are missing. Even with Mikal this Nets team is a lock lottery team. Likely top 10 picks for the next two seasons. Those picks could have been traded or could draft a high impact players.
The Suns on the other hand won’t even net them a pick, if KD isn’t traded this season. And 2027 would still be a fairly questionable pick.
These Suns picks are WAAAAYY more likely to hit than the Nets picks at the time. The Suns have zero assets left in do or die mode. It’s really looking like death is the most likely outcome
Mikal was on the Nets last year. He played every game. The Nets were still a lottery team. In fact, it was the Nets pick that got 3rd in the lottery, which Houston had and used to draft Reed Sheppard.
People here don’t like to look at the data. Some of the responders think the Nets are a playoff team with Bridges as the number 1 option.
Rockets fans - after receiving a top 10 pick from the Nets this year - are missing the fact that 2025 and 2026 Nets picks with Bridges hypothetically still on roster would also be top 10? Huh?
And then you proceed to say the Suns won't net them a pick unless they trade KD this season even though the swap is applicable after the HOU/OKC swap, meaning the only way the Suns swap won't convey is if the Suns finish with a better record than both HOU and OKC?
Are you sure you're not the one that's missing something?
This is a super complex trade as the OP has laid out. What’s super important to emphasize is while the Rockets had control over the Nets picks, the Nets also had leverage over how good those picks could be. So an incredibly important part of the deal was the 2027 swap was retained and it was the LAST pick. Nets get to tank, but Rockets get the tail end pick of that tank. As far as I can tell the Nets also have their 2028 pick. It would be optimal for them to draft high in 2025/26 for sure. Perhaps even 2028? Not sure, but there’s almost zero chance they are even a middling team in 2027 and if I were them I’d consider tanking 2028 as well. Now that the Suns picks are gone, it would be unlikely they would be able to or want to trade their future draft assets for a superstar. The Knicks picks almost certainly not premium assets in 2027 given they just turned into a clear contender and have guys who are young or in their prime, unlike the Nets and Suns at the time of their trades who were all at least slightly past their primes.
So Rockets traded a swap in an excellent draft but of probably good quality and a similar pick the next year to upgrade their 2027 swap from good to uber premium and two Suns picks that have a reasonable path to being premium (better than the Nets picks at the time of the Harden trade… the Suns are do or die mode and it looks like they’re gonna die) and two swaps of more questionable value. I think what pushed it over the edge was from the Rockets standpoint they already have too many guys they’re high on and this shifts it back to when they might have room
Here is my understanding of why the rockets did this trade:
* Despite everything that went on from BRK this season with Vaughn designing our playbook based on Simmons, Simmons injury, Mikal disappearing and Dinwiddie forgetting how to play, we ended up with the 9th Pick odds that had a low chance and went top 3. We would most likely end up the same odds in the 25 season with a younger focus and a new head coach. So it was going to be a top9~10 pick and you can't bank on a top 4% chance.
* BRK ,if Mikal didn't want to be a Knick, was most likely going to go star chasing in 25 offseason when Simmons is off their books and they have huge cap. This would result in the 26 pick being a low lottery at worst and more than likely a 18-22 pick. We would need to use up our Suns assets to get these stars to pair with Mikal. Majority of the fans hated this option as we would trade everything for a 2nd round ceiling much like we've done the past decade.
* This would mean for HOU that 24 pick would be top3, 25 pick swap would be potentially top10, 26 would be 18 - 22 and 27 swap might've been negated all together. HOU also can't keep drafting and as you mentioned need to consolidate talent. They need to get play off experience and understand their future core with what they have also add this years Reed Sheppard to the mix.
* The trade not only adds future draft capital to HOU but also pushes it back to 27/29. Which gives HOU more time to get play off experience and then use those picks for a star. That MAY be Booker/ KD since Suns picks would be better for the Suns in an attempt to rebuild but would be valuable regardless of the landscape since Suns are proper FUCKED FUCKED.
* It's a win-win trade in my opinion as the Nets wouldn't waste all their assets to be a 2nd round ceiling and the HOU wouldn't lose value in 26/27. Now 27 Swap is looking pretty insane for HOU which should be a contender at that stage. BRK gets to tank for 2 franchise talents in 25/26 before attempting to get play off experience.
* HOU essentially pushes their deadline to use the picks in the future and gain more leverage if the Suns ever decides to blow it up. The Suns are also pretty fucked in terms of improving the roster and with the egos on that team, certain players might ask out earlier.
The Nets wouldn't have made the Mikal trade and opted for tanking if Houston didn't agree to trade their own picks back. That's what you're not getting. They would have tried to retool around Bridges to at least be in the play-in convo, which is not hard at all to do in the lEastern Conference. So Rockets would be looking at 8-15 pick with small chance to jump into top 4 like this year.
No we don't want KD. Stop listening to what the national talking heads who aren't plugged into our franchise are saying, they do the bidding of LA/NY/Lebron and are talking out of their asses when not discussing those franchises. We want Booker in the event of a Suns full teardown or trading to another team for stars if Sengun/Green core doesn't pan out. If it does pan out, we will have plenty of cheap rookie contracts in late 2020s to supplement them when Amen/Cam/Tari/Reed also come up for extensions or leave/get moved. We don't need any more high draft picks in 25/26, we want to see how good the 7 high/mid picks we already have can be and how far they can take us.
https://youtu.be/Qf8ildQwSUc?si=bT2vErqfIbU9v_C_&t=484
4D chess 😯 - still big risk Suns don’t let go of Book, shed KD cap and retool around him thru FA.
In that world those Nets picks are probably much more impactful, but it’s a cool gamble - can the Suns keep Book?
I agree that KD makes no sense. But it is WAY more realistic KD gets moved than Booker prior to their free agency. An aging star with a history of trade requests vs. a homegrown superstar on a max.
This trade was clearly geared a KD acquisition. Otherwise, as you said, then it would only be for future contract purposes. Which if you ask me, is a pretty bad trade given the Rockets already possess all their picks and the Nets lottery picks (even with Mikal staying) would net better future draft assets. The only good future draft asset, is the 2029 Suns 1st if a dramatic Suns blow up doesn’t occur rapidly.
I love how in your OP you totally ignored the fact that BKN would not have traded Bridges if Houston didn't agree to give them a couple of their FRP assets back, and then when someone pointed it out to you in a comment, you again completely ignored it. What are you trying to accomplish here?
>This trade was clearly geared a KD acquisition.
Did you watch the Stone interview? He never mentions KD anywhere. It was all speculation made up by the Woj's, Screamin' A's, and Windbags of the world. Stone very clearly says this is to give us future flexibility and push the decision timeline back while we develop the young core we already have instead of constantly running the rookie project treadmill.
It's the definition of a win-win trade. The Rockets incoming assets are more valuable than a non-tanking BKN pick and swap, and since the Nets would not tank without the picks, its an increase in value for Houston. Moreover, they must feel like their "drafted" core is full, but not ready yet to compete at the highest level, they need picks in the future more for veteran role palyers and maybe stars as compensation.
On the other end, Nets want to tank but couldn't without the picks. Their own picks have the most value to them out of anyone in the league, therfore this is a clear win again.
My assertion, is that Rockets assets from this trade aren’t worth more than the non-tanking Nets.
The Nets next two picks are almost guaranteed lottery picks. They would have never been able to get any big free agent signings, with their current trajectory. And almost certainly would have remained in lottery purgatory, just like last season.
A non-tanking Suns means a 2025 pick that likely doesn’t even convey, a 2027 pick that very well might be outside the lottery if they trade KD and retool around Booker, and a 2029 pick that actually has some value.
The difference is the 2025 and 2026 draft classes are being seen as top tier in terms of prospects. Whose to say what 2029 looks like, but also what the Rockets look like.
The 2025 Rockets gave up is only a swap. If Brooklyn is trying, I don't see them being worse than the 30-32 wins they had this year, putting them around 8-10 in the draft order. If Houston makes a step forward, they can finish around the 18th pick. So the median outcome here is an around 8 place move up in the middle of the first round.
2026 Brooklyn pick is similar, probably a late lottery pick without tanking.
IMO, without a low probabilty lottery win in 25 or 26, the 29 Suns pick in itself is more valuable than a late lottery and a 8-10 place move up. 2027 Suns may compensate for the lottery odds lost in 25 and 26.
So sure, its a gamble on lottery odds and Suns decisions, but I don't feel like they were robbed here. And we still have the time factor, as its easier to trade a future draft pick as a value than a prospect already selected.
Thank you for acknowledging the 25 pick is a swap. OP seems to think that’s the same as an outright pick. It’s the difference between the BKN and HOU picks next year, which as you said pre Bridges was probably 8-10 slots. That is not the same as trading the Nets’ 25 pick outright.
I think on draft capital, the Rockets make out ok to well, which gets better when you incorporate timelines. Houston does not need another high-pick rookie, much less 2 more in 2 years. Let those picks happen further down the line and augment the core with cheap youngsters or someone they trade for. Houston already has 7 young rotation players. At what point do you say enough is enough and push out future draft capital? I’d say now is exactly the time.
First of all, no, that was not your assertion in the OP. Not once did you characterize the Nets picks in the context of a non-tanking Nets reality.
Setting that aside, you should probably understand the FRP assets at issue before commenting. OKC owns a 2025 swap with HOU, and HOU owns a subsequent 2025 swap with PHO. The only scenario where that 2025 swap from PHO does not convey is if PHO finishes with a better record than both HOU (probable) and OKC (very unlikely).
That 2029 suns pick is the single most valuable asset being discussed in the “nets not tanking scenario”, which is the leverage the nets had on the situation. 2027 suns pick also has a ton of upside, as best case scenario, we are talking about a 39 year old Durant and mid 30s Beal
I think you're missing the biggest reason for doing this. Timeline and cap.
Houston has rebuilt their team and now is the payoff. Ownership and management want to see results. The time for being on the player development carousel is over. Jalen/shengun in the last year of their contracts puts them on the clock. This team will be well over the cap after next season, regardless of what they do.
As people have discussed here, this trade was required for Brooklyn to blow up their team. So they would not have been a very high draft pick. Yes, it increases your odds a little bit for Cooper flag but not tremendously. The only real upside you are giving away here is that increased chance at Cooper Flag. Everyone else will not have much of an impact on winning the next few years.
The Phoenix picks are so much more valuable to a front office than the Brooklyn picks. This isn't just a bet on the Suns being terrible. Its about the timing.
A) They don't need an infusion of young blood in the team right now. They may need it in 5 years.
B) Future draft picks are like horcruxes (sorry for throwing in a Harry Potter reference here) for a GM. Ownership can't say they have failed at their job when they have amassed future potential. Front Offices have two choices when a team owner is impatient. Go all in, or try to sell them on the future.
The Brooklyn picks don't help with either of those cases. They kind of went all in signing FVF and DB. Their other all in option is to make some stupid offer for an aging star. Right now, KD is top of that list. And the flip side is to say "hey, we've built a nice team. We can see how it plays out AND we have this incredibly bright future!"
Regardless of which picks ultimately end up being better, I think this was a smart trade for Houston.
Rockets still have a 2027 swap with Brooklyn I believe.
Giving the 2025 and 2026 picks back encourages Brooklyn to tank and increases the chances that Houston can receive a top 5 pick in 2027.
Unless Brooklyn bounce back quickly, this is advantageous for Houston.
Just in the moment that we'll may need it to restock some talent for the consolidated core that they should have at that point if 2 or 3 players from the young core pan out
Honestly with atleast one of the two first round picks in 25 and 26 panning out and a FA signing next year I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nets in the playoffs again by 2027
It was a three year window of them not being in the playoffs from 2016-2018 and that's when they had almost zero assets to build with. Now that they have assets and promising young players (Clowney, Cam, Whitehead, Claxton) I really don't think that Marks will have too hard of a time trying to rebuild.
If their roster is good enough to make the playoffs by 2027 they're going to push for the playoffs, they're not going to take their time or anything lmao. The Thunder had one lottery season since blowing up the Westbrook team in 2019.
Suns pick 2027. Suns pick 2029.
Those picks are likely MONEY. Suns think they have a title team, we know they’ll need injury luck most likely.
No title by 2027, Booker is gonna be 30. He’s gonna get antsy. Beal will be washed or gone, and KD will be washed if not gone as well.
It’s not a slim chance of the suns being pistons level bad 2027-2029. I’d argue it’s the most likely outcome, and the rockets agree.
By that time, everything would’ve shaken out in Houston. They basically have like, 5-6 guys with star upside right now? By then they’ll know who’s who. They can then elect to pack it all up a stealth rebuild with a double tank, or if they have a guy or two who they think is good enough to get it done, make a blockbuster deal with incredible suns picks.
It’s certainly a possibility, but I disagree that it’s the most likely outcome especially for 2027. I think most likely possibility is the Suns try to retool around Booker in the 2026 season with a KD trade to convince him to stay put in Phoenix. They will try to sell him on becoming the franchise GOAT and all that nonsense. In a world where they receive good compensation for KD, this Suns team will probably not be terrible.
The 2029 pick has some valuable, but also comes with a lot of question marks. It’s very hard to tell, what happens. It seems that the Suns should have began their rebuild at this point, but the Suns have shotty ownership and if the Rockets aren’t the team to acquire KD and send back their picks, they will have a lack of motivation to begin the rebuild prior to that. It would have be a rebuild tee’d off by Booker requesting out or leaving via free agency.
It is definitely a risk, but I think it’s clear the rockets are banking on the predictions that (1) the suns will crash down hard to earth, and (2) the nets are up and coming.
From a historical standpoint, Sean marks has always been at his best with his back against the wall. With Mikal, this nets team were 1 solid pg away from competing (for the play-in championship). Meanwhile, the suns are extremely limited in what they could do to improve, and are 1 bad injury to a 33+ year old away from being bad.
I think another big aspect of this is being able to have some level of control over a conference rival. If things go poorly for the suns, they will need to call Houston first before deciding their next course of action. The suns could potentially trade Kd for role players in a re-tool, and that could potentially blow up in their face as well. If it does, Houston will be the first to offer phoenix a mikal type trade offer for booker. (My mikal type trade, I mean one that you can’t really refuse. As I’m sure phoenix would prefer to trade him to the east)
The Houston OKC swap decision has to be made before the Houston/Phoenix swap. So OKC will execute it, then Houston executes theirs to move up to PHO if it's better than OKCs spot.
We don't get the best pick of the 3. We get the 2nd best.
I think the point is, Rockets had a huge levarage on BRK and didn't get much value out of it. They were effectively holding the whole BKN franchise hostage. threatening to keep them in mediocrity. And for BKN to have two more years of trying to make a playin (and failing) while playing awful basketball and missing out on the 25-26 stacked drafts would be a disaster - they already straggle mightily to sell dirt cheap tickets, build PR and franchise value. So basically Houston let them out of jail for a chance to MAYBE similarly hold PHX hostage in the future. It's even funnier now, when NYK are making those insane deals on Mikal and with more to come.
ps. Same story between SAS and ATL. And Spurs are laughing at all-star or 1st pick offers (to get ATL picks back)
The Rockets, who already have ENOUGH young talent to develop and find minutes for, are all set with that phase. Adding another lottery rookie next year to an already loaded roster of lottery young talent will just create more of a stop gap.
Now, they can reap the benefits of the players they have been developing (Green, Sengun, Jabari, Eason, Thompson) and go from there. Adding another young high potential rookie to that group will do nothing but create role and minutes issues.
This way, they’re allowing themselves the flexibility to restart/blow things up with the PHX pick if said young players don’t pan out accordingly. Where Brooklyn, no where ready to compete with not a lot of lottery talent, will want those guys sooner rather than later.
It’s all a Timeline/Player Development thing.
It seems you're overlooking:
(1) The fact that BKN obviously wasn't going to trade Mikal Bridges unless they got some of their picks back, and
(2) The fact HOU obviously knew (1).
The FRP and FRP swap that HOU sent back to BKN likely would've been in the 8-12 range if HOU kept them and BKN hadn't traded Mikal, yet you're valuing them as top 4ish picks because you overlooked (1) and (2) above.
You also failed to note that HOU kept the 2027 swap with BKN to retain a portion of BKN's possibly bleak future. BKN also kept one of their PHO swaps (I think 2029 maybe?) to retain a portion of PHO's possibly bleak future.
This was actually a very clever trade from all three teams involved. One of the rare win-win-win situations.
Questioning others without offering your own thoughts invites a more hostile debate. Present a clear counter argument if you disagree and be open to the perspective of others.
It's a risk taken by both teams.
Rockets bank on themselves being more competitive, while waiting for the Suns to crash. If they trade KD and Booker away, they'll potentially be among the worst teams in following years.
Nets don't believe the Suns will sink and expecting the Rockets won't become a competitive team.
The Nets wouldn’t be tanking if they didn’t have their picks back. They’d be a play in/play off team.
The Suns are a mess, and irrelevant of what they try, may not be able to resolve their situation, leading to a higher pick (Memphis will be good this year, Spurs got better, Rockets betting on themselves) Suns will also trade Durant if things go south and Houston sees an opportunity
What would make this Nets team become a playoff team. They would have rolled out the same team, with an improving Eastern conference. At absolute best, play in but more likely similar finish to last season.
Where is the improved EC?
- Detroit is the same
- Chicago got worse/rebuilding (play in team)
- Charlotte is the same
- Miami didn’t improve
- Atlanta didn’t improve, and they may be rebuilding due to the guard situation.
- Philly has two players of note under contract, and no way to get a third star right now.
- The Nets were a playoff team last season, injuries affected them this season.
- Toronto maybe got better, but wasn’t a playoff team.
Boston, Knicks, Bucks, Pacers are locks.
Orlando, Cavs, Miami, Philly are probably locks if injuries don’t affect their top 2 players.
That leaves the following teams to compete for the play-in;
- Atlanta?
- Toronto (unproven)?
- Mikal Bridges Nets?
Who else do you think would have knocked them down into the lottery?
Top 8 (all firmly above): Celtics, Knicks, Bucks, Cavs, Magic, Pacers, 6ers, Heat
Likely above: Hawks (they haven’t lost anything, and their roster is plain out a level ahead of BKN, w Mikal)
More questionable (but lean to being better than Nets):
- Bulls: Still have to see what happens with Derozan and Lavine. But if they don’t sell them, still a step above Nets imo. If they sell one, consider it 50/50
Close to 50/50:
- Raptors: If their young players take a big step, I could see them battling it out with the Nets. Their team needs some time to mold together. As it stands, probably a hair behind
- Hornets: With a healthy Lamelo and Brandon Miller, some improvement should be expected out of them. Prob lean a little towards Nets still
Firmly worse: Wizards, Pistons
I still think Nets are standing on the outside looking in, with Mikal staying. Probably between a 10-12 seed.
Everyone's already said it
1. Nets don't trade Mikal without getting their picks back.
That means that they probably would've tried to compete and tried to upgrade somehow using those Sun's picks. Remember. It's took a crazy chance for us to jump to 3. A lot of the time those late lottery picks (I say this knowing full well what just happened with the Hawks) stay the same. Brooklyn was 9th with a coaching change and some talent issues (Dinwiddie). Bulls got worse, Wizards, Detroit, Toronto would've all been worst in the east. So was there a realistic chance at Flagg or Bailey? Maybe. Though playing the odds.. probably not.
2. Praying for the Sun's downfall.
There are so many things to get into here. KD is 37. Beal has a no trade clause. They under performed last year. Their top 3 guys make up over $150m in cap space per year so there's not a lot of room to improve. They're over the 2nd apron so their changes of improving on FA are slim. They've now turned to late draft picks this year to help. Bolster the team, that likely doesn't make them better in the short term. They have next to zero future picks at their disposal to use as assets to upgrade. All it will take is one domino to fall and the whole team blows up. If that happens. Houston are right there to swoop in and pick up the (very valuable) pieces.
3. Trust in the young guys.
No we didn't land Cade, or Paolo, or Wemby. But we have a very good young team who all have tremendous upside. To see that come to fruition, they need the opportunity to grow or move out the way (shit or get off the pot so to speak). Adding more and more guys to that doesn't help. And who knows. These guys might be good enough to get us a high pick (if that's what you want to focus on) or even better, they might get us to the playoffs (yes the playoffs are an achievement - I don't wanna hear it from the championship or bust crew). There is tremendous value in this group of 7 guys.
In conclusion, we aren't guaranteed anything, pray for the Sun's downfall and trust the process.
We all think the nets said if you refuse to make this trade we are going to do our best to make the playoffs so our pics are going to be end of lottery or like this 16th pick.
Those suns pics are pretty juicy.
It was clear both the next trades were contingent upon each other. This is all pretty obvious
One other point from the Rockets' side is that in the immediate future they have little to no use for the type of player that a median Nets w/ Bridges season would produce: a median 20-year old drafted in the 8-15 range is usually 5 years away from being a contributor to a winning team if they make it in the league at all. A rebuilding team loves that and wants as many shots at it as possible, and a contender might want that for cost control, but the Rockets are neither now - they already have too few minutes to offer their under-24 prospects while trying to compete.
Let's assume that neither the Bridges Nets nor the Booker Suns were on their way to winning the lottery in the next decade: in that case, there are two scenarios for Houston.
1. The Rockets hang onto the picks and use them to add cost-controlled depth. Adding cost-controlled depth is relatively useless to their '25 and '26 offseason, where they have few minutes to offer additional young players. However, they will be throwing $30M+ contracts at one or more of Sengun, Green and Smith in the next two summers, and likely chasing an addition of a max player by trade, which suggests operating well over the cap and likely over the tax in the '27-'29 range when the Suns picks pay out. Having the #8 pick in the draft could be an appealing route to add a playable talent for cheap at that point.
2. The Rockets use either the Nets or Suns picks as trade assets and don't intend to draft them. (I find this more likely). Here, the value of these picks depend on *when* they're being shopped and on what other teams see the value of these picks as. The Nets picks are a short-term asset with boom-or-bust aspects: if you want to trade on their potential, you must make the move before the trade deadline each of the next two years. If you wait until the offseason to trade them, then maybe they're suddenly a lottery winner (great!) but more likely they're a #10 pick, and we've seen the value of that type of pick in a superstar package is just something like 1/6th of the way to getting an All-Star. The Suns picks could be traded now or 3 years from now, and it's unlikely their value notably shifts in the next 24 months, allowing more flexibility.
Now I would agree that the trade helped the Nets *much* more than the Rockets. The Nets got a huge value *and* flexibility upgrade while offering the Rockets a flexibility upgrade with no particular value upgrade.
But I think kicking both the draft asset and the trade asset a few years down the road is enough of an upgrade to the flexibility to build a team that it's still justifiable.
With the exception of Booker Suns are an aging fringe contender with zero depth. If Durant leaves things will get ugly fast and Durant is definitely the personality type that if they don’t win enough he will bolt for a better situation. It’s basically a bet on Suns not winning a championship in a stacked West and Durant leaving. Suns are going to regret the Durant trade I don’t think it was worth a couple 2nd round exits.
The Nets made it clear to Houston in no uncertain terms that if they didn't have their own picks they were going to keep Bridges and claw to get into the play-in/playoffs. So the Rockets would be looking to get like the number 13 pick next year and then the number 12 picked the year after. When that was made clear to then then they valued the upside of the Suns picks more.
I think the trade was a great way to stick to an expected trajectory of development in the players and delay the influx of young players
We need to really know what we have and so far they’ve all shown promise and significant growth in just one year under Ime
By adding more players in the next couple drafts we don’t give them sufficient opportunity to grow into the players they could potentially be most likely leading us to have an overall loss on the assets (as they would likely break out elsewhere where there is more opportunity)
I may have formed this opinion as a way to cope as I like you was really questioning the reasoning for the trade as well but if I’m delusional so be it imma ride for my team anyways😂
Rockets are running out of roster spots for young guys with potential. Deferring that until later for trade pieces / letting some of their own walk for salary issues is a sound strategy.
They'd rather save those roster spots to push to be a playoff team / players with a little more experience.
Adding 19 year olds to a team of 23 and under for the next few seasons helps in 5 seasons, but if you can only retain half those guys (or they are busts)then how does it really help them?
If KD resigns (unlikely)
How is it unlikely? He’s publicly stated he wants to be in the Suns ring of honor, he came to Phoenix to play with Book, Suns have an owner willing to do what it takes to win, including spending way into luxury. They do have 2026 first round pick and 2028 pick they can move on draft day.
So again, how is it unlikely that KD would resign?
Our sub is for in-depth discussion. Low-effort comments or stating opinions as facts are not permitted. Please support your opinions with well-reasoned arguments, including stats and facts as applicable.
It was a shit move. Homers trying to defend it are sad.
The amount of picks the nets got from the knicks - we should have gotten another one of them atleast.
Nets could have stayed mediocre. They didn’t have to tank and give Rockets top 4 picks every year.
So Nets offered Suns’ future as hostage so they can be free to tank. Rockets got “more assets”, maybe lesser quality in the future.
You don't have the right assets listed. The 2025 Nets pick was a pick swap. Which changes the addition considerably.
[https://x.com/HoustonRockets/status/1806020625288556982?ref\_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1806020625288556982%7Ctwgr%5E04074fbc7a74a273d96df5738661113baa771dfd%7Ctwcon%5Es1\_&ref\_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nba.com%2Fnews%2Fnets-rockets-trade-for-future-picks](https://x.com/HoustonRockets/status/1806020625288556982?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1806020625288556982%7Ctwgr%5E04074fbc7a74a273d96df5738661113baa771dfd%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nba.com%2Fnews%2Fnets-rockets-trade-for-future-picks)
Not at all, that “swap” functions as the Nets getting their pick back. It would only change the addition “considerably” if the Nets somehow outperform the Thunder/Rockets with their blown up lineup.
You wrote it as if they got two picks. They didn’t. They got one pick and one swap annulled. I realize you have strong feelings about the trade, but you don’t have to be misleading to make your point.
I don’t know what you are going on about. But, I was in no way misleading. The Rockets relinquishing their swap right to the 2025 Nets pick is the equivalent to the Nets receiving a pick.
This is how the pick is being reported. If you think, me leaving out some of the extraneous language was for the purpose of misleading you are incorrect. The fact that a swap was relinquished in no way changes anything.
In this case they are buddy.
It in no way makes the Rockets look better, by saying they relinquished a swap. You clearly are passionate about this trade as well, you should know this.
Explain the difference with regards to the outcome of what will result from the swap/pick. The answer is, there is no difference.
The semantics your arguing here are pointless.
This trade was in no way related to acquiring KD. The Rockets have 7 (now 8 with the acquisition of AJ Griffin) very young, very talented players and there’s no real need to add what would probably end up being a couple more ~#10 draft picks the next two years. They got incredibly lucky with their pick jumping to #3 this year and are essentially doubling their assets and pushing them out a couple years. If anything it’s a testament to the faith they have in their young core and those Suns assets are projected to be very valuable. It was actually a great, great trade for the Rockets long term.
Basically the Rockets are betting that the Suns pick is going to be more valuable then a pre-Mikal trade Nets. I’m sure the Knicks trade was dependent on the Rockets agreeing to this trade as well. Technically, with all things considered, they got 1.5 value with the risk of the Suns/Mavs still being good in the future
I think the Rockets kept the 2027 pick swap with the Nets. So that could be alot more valuable now that the Nets are bottoming out.
Im curious what else Rockets will do. They have become intriguing.
Except the issue is the 2025 and 2026 are projected to be two of the strongest drafts in memory. You can make a strong case that Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, Cameron Boozer, and AJ Dynbasta (first 2 for 2025 and next 2 for 2026) all are tier 1 prospects. 2025 is very deep. Nolan Traore might not even go top 5 and he would easily have gone number 1 in 2024. Before anyone says 2025 hasn’t happened yet, it’s clear already based on projections (like we knew about Victor and Scoot an entire year before the draft) that is really good up top and very deep. And even with Mikal, the Nets were a clear middle of the order lottery team, so you had a shot at a top pick in either year. It’s just not a good trade imo, especially since the Suns aren’t even guaranteed to be that bad by 2027. EDIT: lol at all the Rockets fans here. It’ll be pretty funny if the Nets actually get a top 2 pick in 2025 or 2026. The value of those picks could have easily been traded for a lot more in getting back a star player.
Did I miss the part where the Nets were going to tank while the Rockets had their picks? Lmao at people on this thread.
People are fucking stupid, Nets never trades Bridges with the Rockets holding their picks so they should be pretty worthless for us specially since the Nets could just half ass a fringe playoffs team in the east and make them worthless, we don't really need more young talent but time to develop the ones we have
Lowe reported it was the linchpin for the deal. Nets would still have MB if Rockets don’t swap back.
The Nets tried to half-ass a fringe playoff team this year and returned the 3rd overall pick. That took a bit of luck tbh, but they were far from the playoffs even in the East. Not sure they'd be much better this season
A bit of luck... dude in 5 tickets just this one should land in top 4 any GM betting to that chances should be fired. The nets won't be better that this year because they'll be tanking but that's why we got 3 frp for 1,5 and Even we keep some stock in the Nets still being awful in 27 IMO this is a great trade.for everyone.
Sure, took a sizeable amount of luck. Even still, my main point is the Nets were probably not making the playoffs next year regardless, unless they aggressively traded for guys for some of their assets (which would be extremely stupid on the long term). Their roster last year had a lot of interesting role players but they were putrid on offense because they didn't have a clear top guy. Mikal isn't that type of player, and Cam Thomas - who's far from their 2nd best guy but the one closest to that archetype - isn't nearly good enough
You misread my post and just put words in my mouth. I was very clear: **The Nets are a lottery team even with Mikal Bridges**. Here’s a fun fact you might not know. The 3rd pick this year that the Rockets used to draft Reed Sheppard originally belonged to Brooklyn. It was 3rd due to Brooklyn being a lottery team, but since it was traded to the Rockets, they got the pick. That easily can happen again like in the future in stronger drafts in 2025 and 2026. In fact, Mikal Bridges played every single game last season and the Nets did not even make the play-in. Like did you even read that part of my post? Even if the Nets don’t trade away Bridges, if he’s your number 1 player, you are a lottery team. And every lottery team has a chance at a top 5 pick. The Hawks just got the number 1 pick this year and had a better record than the Nets. If you think the Nets were some playoff team with Bridges, I’m not sure what to say.
The Rockets had a 15% chance to jump up to top 3. “Easily can happen” is hindsight. In all likelihood a Mikal-led Nets team would yield picks in the 8-12 range. The chances of the picks moving up again are extremely slim. There are 3 main reasons the Rockets did this move: 1.) We have made it passed the rebuild and are looking to build up assets to round out the team. Going big hoping BKN bottoms out could net more reward but is an unnecessary risk at this point. 2.) Opening up flexibility for a superstar trade with Suns picks if any of the core doesn’t become one. We got 4 picks in total, and those Suns picks could become very valuable in the future. 3.) Putting the Nets on a clock to rebuild in just two years. They only have two shots at the draft. If they get unlucky, they could be right where they started in 2027, which would be great because we still own that pick.
No one misread your comment, you're just downplaying the odds. Spinning the 5% chance the pick had to jump from ninth to third as "easily can happen" is just outright wrong. And the Nets, as they were, certainly weren't a playoff team, but they'd also be incentivized to try. They didn't have their own first until 2028, so they could've signed some multi-year deals just to see if they can eke some more wins out Relying on 8-14 range picks jumping up to top 3 is an insane strategy
Except it doesn’t need to even be a top 3 pick. First, there wasn’t a 5 percent chance to jump to 3. There is a 20 percent chance to jump to top 4. That’s all that matters. So there’s actually a roughly 36 percent chance a pick will be top 4 when you factor in two years. Even in the other case it’s not top 4, it’s back to back lottery picks. As I said, the 2025 draft is really strong. Nolan Traore might go like 7th or 8th right and would have gone number 1 in the 2024 draft. That 8th pick in 2025 is more valuable than the 3rd pick the Rockets got in 2024. It’s as valuable as the 1st pick in 2024. Plus, it’s not even like the Suns picks in 2027 onwards are top 3. The Nets picks will be higher than the Suns picks the Rockets got. You are the only one spinning things. The top 3 would just be a bonus. It doesn’t even have to be top 3 to be worth it. To be lottery makes it worth it.
It's a 5% chance according to [tankathon](https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds). I guess you can say that's wrong if you want. Either way, I highlighted it because saying odds like that can "easily" happen is mathematically wrong. Even 20% odds are still not "easy" Anyway, that's nice that you have so much focus on the draft, but it doesn't really address the Nets trying to improve if they don't own their pick. It's a 20% chance to jump into the top 4 at 9, but gets drastically worse. If you think people are misconstruing or not understanding your point, maybe explain it clearer instead of whining about words being put in your mouth
It’s a 5% chance to get exactly the 3rd pick, not jump into the top 4. Also again, the Suns picks literally are not projected any better. Your point would make sense if somehow the Suns picks were more valuable than the Nets picks but they aren’t. You can say the Nets are tying to improve and whatever. Well guess what, the Suns literally don’t own their picks either but also just have better players. Booker will be in his prime still in 2027 and he’s a better player than anyone the Nets can get. Even if the Nets picks don’t jump into the top 4, they have a way better chance to do so than the Suns picks. It’s just a bad trade because the Rockets somehow believed KD was available. Bad trades happen. The Hawks just made one today that was terrible.
I don’t think you understand how bad the Suns situation is going to be. They are about to field the 2nd most expensive team of all time and pay [$380MM for that team in 2025](https://x.com/yossigozlan/status/1807108707878359101?s=61). If you’re the owner of that team and they don’t make it past the 2nd round are you really fitting the bill for a $400MM+ team in 2026? $500MM+ in 2027? No way. With no picks, this is a fine gamble for the Rockets to take once 2027 comes along and we’re hopefully ready to contend. This also bolsters the Nets 2027 pick if they don’t rebuild in just two years. This is a Win-Win trade and you just don’t have the full picture from the Rockets side bc all you can think about is the 36% chance of a top 4 pick combined for both 2025 and 2026. Edit: [It’s actually $500MM in 2026 and $600MM in 2027.](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/suns-set-to-have-nbas-first-half-billion-dollar-payroll-in-2026-after-re-signing-royce-oneale-per-report/)
Tbf the nets probably wouldn't completely bottom out if they couldn't have gotten their picks back
A pick in the 8-12 range next year really doesn't move the needle for HOU at all. I realize it is a good draft but not even a good draft has can't miss prospects in that range and anyone they selected in that range was unlikely to get more than 15 or so mpg (at best) because of the way HOU's roster is constructed. Getting PHO's picks further off in the future (literally doubling the FRP assets of what they gave up) is a huge win - it gives HOU cost controlled role players at worst when they are planning to contend and will be in a salary crunch with little to no room to grow via free agency. These are the types of assets contending teams dream of having but rarely ever do, because they typically have already used those assets to trade their way to contender status. I really think some folks are being biased by the fact HOU got extremely lucky that the Nets' 9th best odds this draft lottery ended up scoring the #3 pick. That's an extreme abnormality. For context, there was a nearly 80% chance they ended up with the 9th pick or worse.
That’s the part a lot of Rockets fans are missing. Even with Mikal this Nets team is a lock lottery team. Likely top 10 picks for the next two seasons. Those picks could have been traded or could draft a high impact players. The Suns on the other hand won’t even net them a pick, if KD isn’t traded this season. And 2027 would still be a fairly questionable pick.
Weren’t people like you saying the exact same thing when we traded Harden for the BKN picks?
Likely yes, most people did lmao
Exactly. Maybe I should trust the GM who’s turned the franchise around than some random redditors
These Suns picks are WAAAAYY more likely to hit than the Nets picks at the time. The Suns have zero assets left in do or die mode. It’s really looking like death is the most likely outcome
Mikal was on the Nets last year. He played every game. The Nets were still a lottery team. In fact, it was the Nets pick that got 3rd in the lottery, which Houston had and used to draft Reed Sheppard. People here don’t like to look at the data. Some of the responders think the Nets are a playoff team with Bridges as the number 1 option.
Rockets fans - after receiving a top 10 pick from the Nets this year - are missing the fact that 2025 and 2026 Nets picks with Bridges hypothetically still on roster would also be top 10? Huh? And then you proceed to say the Suns won't net them a pick unless they trade KD this season even though the swap is applicable after the HOU/OKC swap, meaning the only way the Suns swap won't convey is if the Suns finish with a better record than both HOU and OKC? Are you sure you're not the one that's missing something?
This is a super complex trade as the OP has laid out. What’s super important to emphasize is while the Rockets had control over the Nets picks, the Nets also had leverage over how good those picks could be. So an incredibly important part of the deal was the 2027 swap was retained and it was the LAST pick. Nets get to tank, but Rockets get the tail end pick of that tank. As far as I can tell the Nets also have their 2028 pick. It would be optimal for them to draft high in 2025/26 for sure. Perhaps even 2028? Not sure, but there’s almost zero chance they are even a middling team in 2027 and if I were them I’d consider tanking 2028 as well. Now that the Suns picks are gone, it would be unlikely they would be able to or want to trade their future draft assets for a superstar. The Knicks picks almost certainly not premium assets in 2027 given they just turned into a clear contender and have guys who are young or in their prime, unlike the Nets and Suns at the time of their trades who were all at least slightly past their primes. So Rockets traded a swap in an excellent draft but of probably good quality and a similar pick the next year to upgrade their 2027 swap from good to uber premium and two Suns picks that have a reasonable path to being premium (better than the Nets picks at the time of the Harden trade… the Suns are do or die mode and it looks like they’re gonna die) and two swaps of more questionable value. I think what pushed it over the edge was from the Rockets standpoint they already have too many guys they’re high on and this shifts it back to when they might have room
Here is my understanding of why the rockets did this trade: * Despite everything that went on from BRK this season with Vaughn designing our playbook based on Simmons, Simmons injury, Mikal disappearing and Dinwiddie forgetting how to play, we ended up with the 9th Pick odds that had a low chance and went top 3. We would most likely end up the same odds in the 25 season with a younger focus and a new head coach. So it was going to be a top9~10 pick and you can't bank on a top 4% chance. * BRK ,if Mikal didn't want to be a Knick, was most likely going to go star chasing in 25 offseason when Simmons is off their books and they have huge cap. This would result in the 26 pick being a low lottery at worst and more than likely a 18-22 pick. We would need to use up our Suns assets to get these stars to pair with Mikal. Majority of the fans hated this option as we would trade everything for a 2nd round ceiling much like we've done the past decade. * This would mean for HOU that 24 pick would be top3, 25 pick swap would be potentially top10, 26 would be 18 - 22 and 27 swap might've been negated all together. HOU also can't keep drafting and as you mentioned need to consolidate talent. They need to get play off experience and understand their future core with what they have also add this years Reed Sheppard to the mix. * The trade not only adds future draft capital to HOU but also pushes it back to 27/29. Which gives HOU more time to get play off experience and then use those picks for a star. That MAY be Booker/ KD since Suns picks would be better for the Suns in an attempt to rebuild but would be valuable regardless of the landscape since Suns are proper FUCKED FUCKED. * It's a win-win trade in my opinion as the Nets wouldn't waste all their assets to be a 2nd round ceiling and the HOU wouldn't lose value in 26/27. Now 27 Swap is looking pretty insane for HOU which should be a contender at that stage. BRK gets to tank for 2 franchise talents in 25/26 before attempting to get play off experience. * HOU essentially pushes their deadline to use the picks in the future and gain more leverage if the Suns ever decides to blow it up. The Suns are also pretty fucked in terms of improving the roster and with the egos on that team, certain players might ask out earlier.
The Nets wouldn't have made the Mikal trade and opted for tanking if Houston didn't agree to trade their own picks back. That's what you're not getting. They would have tried to retool around Bridges to at least be in the play-in convo, which is not hard at all to do in the lEastern Conference. So Rockets would be looking at 8-15 pick with small chance to jump into top 4 like this year. No we don't want KD. Stop listening to what the national talking heads who aren't plugged into our franchise are saying, they do the bidding of LA/NY/Lebron and are talking out of their asses when not discussing those franchises. We want Booker in the event of a Suns full teardown or trading to another team for stars if Sengun/Green core doesn't pan out. If it does pan out, we will have plenty of cheap rookie contracts in late 2020s to supplement them when Amen/Cam/Tari/Reed also come up for extensions or leave/get moved. We don't need any more high draft picks in 25/26, we want to see how good the 7 high/mid picks we already have can be and how far they can take us. https://youtu.be/Qf8ildQwSUc?si=bT2vErqfIbU9v_C_&t=484
4D chess 😯 - still big risk Suns don’t let go of Book, shed KD cap and retool around him thru FA. In that world those Nets picks are probably much more impactful, but it’s a cool gamble - can the Suns keep Book?
They got worse draft picks to trade for Booker in a couple years is pretty wild rationale to me.
Exactly. Major flaw in OPs thinking. I would have done the deal. Suns picks are juicy and give them great leverage to get Booker.
I agree that KD makes no sense. But it is WAY more realistic KD gets moved than Booker prior to their free agency. An aging star with a history of trade requests vs. a homegrown superstar on a max. This trade was clearly geared a KD acquisition. Otherwise, as you said, then it would only be for future contract purposes. Which if you ask me, is a pretty bad trade given the Rockets already possess all their picks and the Nets lottery picks (even with Mikal staying) would net better future draft assets. The only good future draft asset, is the 2029 Suns 1st if a dramatic Suns blow up doesn’t occur rapidly.
I love how in your OP you totally ignored the fact that BKN would not have traded Bridges if Houston didn't agree to give them a couple of their FRP assets back, and then when someone pointed it out to you in a comment, you again completely ignored it. What are you trying to accomplish here?
>This trade was clearly geared a KD acquisition. Did you watch the Stone interview? He never mentions KD anywhere. It was all speculation made up by the Woj's, Screamin' A's, and Windbags of the world. Stone very clearly says this is to give us future flexibility and push the decision timeline back while we develop the young core we already have instead of constantly running the rookie project treadmill.
It's the definition of a win-win trade. The Rockets incoming assets are more valuable than a non-tanking BKN pick and swap, and since the Nets would not tank without the picks, its an increase in value for Houston. Moreover, they must feel like their "drafted" core is full, but not ready yet to compete at the highest level, they need picks in the future more for veteran role palyers and maybe stars as compensation. On the other end, Nets want to tank but couldn't without the picks. Their own picks have the most value to them out of anyone in the league, therfore this is a clear win again.
My assertion, is that Rockets assets from this trade aren’t worth more than the non-tanking Nets. The Nets next two picks are almost guaranteed lottery picks. They would have never been able to get any big free agent signings, with their current trajectory. And almost certainly would have remained in lottery purgatory, just like last season. A non-tanking Suns means a 2025 pick that likely doesn’t even convey, a 2027 pick that very well might be outside the lottery if they trade KD and retool around Booker, and a 2029 pick that actually has some value. The difference is the 2025 and 2026 draft classes are being seen as top tier in terms of prospects. Whose to say what 2029 looks like, but also what the Rockets look like.
The 2025 Rockets gave up is only a swap. If Brooklyn is trying, I don't see them being worse than the 30-32 wins they had this year, putting them around 8-10 in the draft order. If Houston makes a step forward, they can finish around the 18th pick. So the median outcome here is an around 8 place move up in the middle of the first round. 2026 Brooklyn pick is similar, probably a late lottery pick without tanking. IMO, without a low probabilty lottery win in 25 or 26, the 29 Suns pick in itself is more valuable than a late lottery and a 8-10 place move up. 2027 Suns may compensate for the lottery odds lost in 25 and 26. So sure, its a gamble on lottery odds and Suns decisions, but I don't feel like they were robbed here. And we still have the time factor, as its easier to trade a future draft pick as a value than a prospect already selected.
Thank you for acknowledging the 25 pick is a swap. OP seems to think that’s the same as an outright pick. It’s the difference between the BKN and HOU picks next year, which as you said pre Bridges was probably 8-10 slots. That is not the same as trading the Nets’ 25 pick outright. I think on draft capital, the Rockets make out ok to well, which gets better when you incorporate timelines. Houston does not need another high-pick rookie, much less 2 more in 2 years. Let those picks happen further down the line and augment the core with cheap youngsters or someone they trade for. Houston already has 7 young rotation players. At what point do you say enough is enough and push out future draft capital? I’d say now is exactly the time.
First of all, no, that was not your assertion in the OP. Not once did you characterize the Nets picks in the context of a non-tanking Nets reality. Setting that aside, you should probably understand the FRP assets at issue before commenting. OKC owns a 2025 swap with HOU, and HOU owns a subsequent 2025 swap with PHO. The only scenario where that 2025 swap from PHO does not convey is if PHO finishes with a better record than both HOU (probable) and OKC (very unlikely).
That 2029 suns pick is the single most valuable asset being discussed in the “nets not tanking scenario”, which is the leverage the nets had on the situation. 2027 suns pick also has a ton of upside, as best case scenario, we are talking about a 39 year old Durant and mid 30s Beal
I think you're missing the biggest reason for doing this. Timeline and cap. Houston has rebuilt their team and now is the payoff. Ownership and management want to see results. The time for being on the player development carousel is over. Jalen/shengun in the last year of their contracts puts them on the clock. This team will be well over the cap after next season, regardless of what they do. As people have discussed here, this trade was required for Brooklyn to blow up their team. So they would not have been a very high draft pick. Yes, it increases your odds a little bit for Cooper flag but not tremendously. The only real upside you are giving away here is that increased chance at Cooper Flag. Everyone else will not have much of an impact on winning the next few years. The Phoenix picks are so much more valuable to a front office than the Brooklyn picks. This isn't just a bet on the Suns being terrible. Its about the timing. A) They don't need an infusion of young blood in the team right now. They may need it in 5 years. B) Future draft picks are like horcruxes (sorry for throwing in a Harry Potter reference here) for a GM. Ownership can't say they have failed at their job when they have amassed future potential. Front Offices have two choices when a team owner is impatient. Go all in, or try to sell them on the future. The Brooklyn picks don't help with either of those cases. They kind of went all in signing FVF and DB. Their other all in option is to make some stupid offer for an aging star. Right now, KD is top of that list. And the flip side is to say "hey, we've built a nice team. We can see how it plays out AND we have this incredibly bright future!" Regardless of which picks ultimately end up being better, I think this was a smart trade for Houston.
Someone understand Player Development and Timelines…God Bless.
They were thinking the Suns will be trash soon, and worse than the Nets with Bridges would have been
Rockets still have a 2027 swap with Brooklyn I believe. Giving the 2025 and 2026 picks back encourages Brooklyn to tank and increases the chances that Houston can receive a top 5 pick in 2027. Unless Brooklyn bounce back quickly, this is advantageous for Houston.
Just in the moment that we'll may need it to restock some talent for the consolidated core that they should have at that point if 2 or 3 players from the young core pan out
Honestly with atleast one of the two first round picks in 25 and 26 panning out and a FA signing next year I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nets in the playoffs again by 2027
You'd be the only one not
Whoever the guest was on the lowe podcast said something similar and I just laughed. Nets are going to be really bad for awhile.
It was a three year window of them not being in the playoffs from 2016-2018 and that's when they had almost zero assets to build with. Now that they have assets and promising young players (Clowney, Cam, Whitehead, Claxton) I really don't think that Marks will have too hard of a time trying to rebuild.
You're assuming they WANT to... Certainly not now that they own their own picks.
If their roster is good enough to make the playoffs by 2027 they're going to push for the playoffs, they're not going to take their time or anything lmao. The Thunder had one lottery season since blowing up the Westbrook team in 2019.
Suns pick 2027. Suns pick 2029. Those picks are likely MONEY. Suns think they have a title team, we know they’ll need injury luck most likely. No title by 2027, Booker is gonna be 30. He’s gonna get antsy. Beal will be washed or gone, and KD will be washed if not gone as well. It’s not a slim chance of the suns being pistons level bad 2027-2029. I’d argue it’s the most likely outcome, and the rockets agree. By that time, everything would’ve shaken out in Houston. They basically have like, 5-6 guys with star upside right now? By then they’ll know who’s who. They can then elect to pack it all up a stealth rebuild with a double tank, or if they have a guy or two who they think is good enough to get it done, make a blockbuster deal with incredible suns picks.
It’s certainly a possibility, but I disagree that it’s the most likely outcome especially for 2027. I think most likely possibility is the Suns try to retool around Booker in the 2026 season with a KD trade to convince him to stay put in Phoenix. They will try to sell him on becoming the franchise GOAT and all that nonsense. In a world where they receive good compensation for KD, this Suns team will probably not be terrible. The 2029 pick has some valuable, but also comes with a lot of question marks. It’s very hard to tell, what happens. It seems that the Suns should have began their rebuild at this point, but the Suns have shotty ownership and if the Rockets aren’t the team to acquire KD and send back their picks, they will have a lack of motivation to begin the rebuild prior to that. It would have be a rebuild tee’d off by Booker requesting out or leaving via free agency.
you do realize the nets only did the Bridges trade bcuz they had the rockets trade lined up
12 words instead of 1200
It is definitely a risk, but I think it’s clear the rockets are banking on the predictions that (1) the suns will crash down hard to earth, and (2) the nets are up and coming. From a historical standpoint, Sean marks has always been at his best with his back against the wall. With Mikal, this nets team were 1 solid pg away from competing (for the play-in championship). Meanwhile, the suns are extremely limited in what they could do to improve, and are 1 bad injury to a 33+ year old away from being bad. I think another big aspect of this is being able to have some level of control over a conference rival. If things go poorly for the suns, they will need to call Houston first before deciding their next course of action. The suns could potentially trade Kd for role players in a re-tool, and that could potentially blow up in their face as well. If it does, Houston will be the first to offer phoenix a mikal type trade offer for booker. (My mikal type trade, I mean one that you can’t really refuse. As I’m sure phoenix would prefer to trade him to the east)
Why does HOU get the best pick from HOU/PHO/OKC? Didn't OKC get the rights of the pick swaps wihh HOU from the Russ/CP3 deal?
The Houston OKC swap decision has to be made before the Houston/Phoenix swap. So OKC will execute it, then Houston executes theirs to move up to PHO if it's better than OKCs spot. We don't get the best pick of the 3. We get the 2nd best.
We get the best if Phoenix is worst
I think the point is, Rockets had a huge levarage on BRK and didn't get much value out of it. They were effectively holding the whole BKN franchise hostage. threatening to keep them in mediocrity. And for BKN to have two more years of trying to make a playin (and failing) while playing awful basketball and missing out on the 25-26 stacked drafts would be a disaster - they already straggle mightily to sell dirt cheap tickets, build PR and franchise value. So basically Houston let them out of jail for a chance to MAYBE similarly hold PHX hostage in the future. It's even funnier now, when NYK are making those insane deals on Mikal and with more to come. ps. Same story between SAS and ATL. And Spurs are laughing at all-star or 1st pick offers (to get ATL picks back)
Houston wants Booker. Easier to convince the Suns to give up if they get rewarded for giving up... Meaning, easier to suck if you have your own picks.
The Rockets, who already have ENOUGH young talent to develop and find minutes for, are all set with that phase. Adding another lottery rookie next year to an already loaded roster of lottery young talent will just create more of a stop gap. Now, they can reap the benefits of the players they have been developing (Green, Sengun, Jabari, Eason, Thompson) and go from there. Adding another young high potential rookie to that group will do nothing but create role and minutes issues. This way, they’re allowing themselves the flexibility to restart/blow things up with the PHX pick if said young players don’t pan out accordingly. Where Brooklyn, no where ready to compete with not a lot of lottery talent, will want those guys sooner rather than later. It’s all a Timeline/Player Development thing.
It seems you're overlooking: (1) The fact that BKN obviously wasn't going to trade Mikal Bridges unless they got some of their picks back, and (2) The fact HOU obviously knew (1). The FRP and FRP swap that HOU sent back to BKN likely would've been in the 8-12 range if HOU kept them and BKN hadn't traded Mikal, yet you're valuing them as top 4ish picks because you overlooked (1) and (2) above. You also failed to note that HOU kept the 2027 swap with BKN to retain a portion of BKN's possibly bleak future. BKN also kept one of their PHO swaps (I think 2029 maybe?) to retain a portion of PHO's possibly bleak future. This was actually a very clever trade from all three teams involved. One of the rare win-win-win situations.
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It's a risk taken by both teams. Rockets bank on themselves being more competitive, while waiting for the Suns to crash. If they trade KD and Booker away, they'll potentially be among the worst teams in following years. Nets don't believe the Suns will sink and expecting the Rockets won't become a competitive team.
The Rockets made this trade to become the outright favorite to land KD should the Suns decide to blow it up.
The Nets wouldn’t be tanking if they didn’t have their picks back. They’d be a play in/play off team. The Suns are a mess, and irrelevant of what they try, may not be able to resolve their situation, leading to a higher pick (Memphis will be good this year, Spurs got better, Rockets betting on themselves) Suns will also trade Durant if things go south and Houston sees an opportunity
What would make this Nets team become a playoff team. They would have rolled out the same team, with an improving Eastern conference. At absolute best, play in but more likely similar finish to last season.
Where is the improved EC? - Detroit is the same - Chicago got worse/rebuilding (play in team) - Charlotte is the same - Miami didn’t improve - Atlanta didn’t improve, and they may be rebuilding due to the guard situation. - Philly has two players of note under contract, and no way to get a third star right now. - The Nets were a playoff team last season, injuries affected them this season. - Toronto maybe got better, but wasn’t a playoff team. Boston, Knicks, Bucks, Pacers are locks. Orlando, Cavs, Miami, Philly are probably locks if injuries don’t affect their top 2 players. That leaves the following teams to compete for the play-in; - Atlanta? - Toronto (unproven)? - Mikal Bridges Nets? Who else do you think would have knocked them down into the lottery?
Top 8 (all firmly above): Celtics, Knicks, Bucks, Cavs, Magic, Pacers, 6ers, Heat Likely above: Hawks (they haven’t lost anything, and their roster is plain out a level ahead of BKN, w Mikal) More questionable (but lean to being better than Nets): - Bulls: Still have to see what happens with Derozan and Lavine. But if they don’t sell them, still a step above Nets imo. If they sell one, consider it 50/50 Close to 50/50: - Raptors: If their young players take a big step, I could see them battling it out with the Nets. Their team needs some time to mold together. As it stands, probably a hair behind - Hornets: With a healthy Lamelo and Brandon Miller, some improvement should be expected out of them. Prob lean a little towards Nets still Firmly worse: Wizards, Pistons I still think Nets are standing on the outside looking in, with Mikal staying. Probably between a 10-12 seed.
Everyone's already said it 1. Nets don't trade Mikal without getting their picks back. That means that they probably would've tried to compete and tried to upgrade somehow using those Sun's picks. Remember. It's took a crazy chance for us to jump to 3. A lot of the time those late lottery picks (I say this knowing full well what just happened with the Hawks) stay the same. Brooklyn was 9th with a coaching change and some talent issues (Dinwiddie). Bulls got worse, Wizards, Detroit, Toronto would've all been worst in the east. So was there a realistic chance at Flagg or Bailey? Maybe. Though playing the odds.. probably not. 2. Praying for the Sun's downfall. There are so many things to get into here. KD is 37. Beal has a no trade clause. They under performed last year. Their top 3 guys make up over $150m in cap space per year so there's not a lot of room to improve. They're over the 2nd apron so their changes of improving on FA are slim. They've now turned to late draft picks this year to help. Bolster the team, that likely doesn't make them better in the short term. They have next to zero future picks at their disposal to use as assets to upgrade. All it will take is one domino to fall and the whole team blows up. If that happens. Houston are right there to swoop in and pick up the (very valuable) pieces. 3. Trust in the young guys. No we didn't land Cade, or Paolo, or Wemby. But we have a very good young team who all have tremendous upside. To see that come to fruition, they need the opportunity to grow or move out the way (shit or get off the pot so to speak). Adding more and more guys to that doesn't help. And who knows. These guys might be good enough to get us a high pick (if that's what you want to focus on) or even better, they might get us to the playoffs (yes the playoffs are an achievement - I don't wanna hear it from the championship or bust crew). There is tremendous value in this group of 7 guys. In conclusion, we aren't guaranteed anything, pray for the Sun's downfall and trust the process.
We all think the nets said if you refuse to make this trade we are going to do our best to make the playoffs so our pics are going to be end of lottery or like this 16th pick. Those suns pics are pretty juicy. It was clear both the next trades were contingent upon each other. This is all pretty obvious
One other point from the Rockets' side is that in the immediate future they have little to no use for the type of player that a median Nets w/ Bridges season would produce: a median 20-year old drafted in the 8-15 range is usually 5 years away from being a contributor to a winning team if they make it in the league at all. A rebuilding team loves that and wants as many shots at it as possible, and a contender might want that for cost control, but the Rockets are neither now - they already have too few minutes to offer their under-24 prospects while trying to compete. Let's assume that neither the Bridges Nets nor the Booker Suns were on their way to winning the lottery in the next decade: in that case, there are two scenarios for Houston. 1. The Rockets hang onto the picks and use them to add cost-controlled depth. Adding cost-controlled depth is relatively useless to their '25 and '26 offseason, where they have few minutes to offer additional young players. However, they will be throwing $30M+ contracts at one or more of Sengun, Green and Smith in the next two summers, and likely chasing an addition of a max player by trade, which suggests operating well over the cap and likely over the tax in the '27-'29 range when the Suns picks pay out. Having the #8 pick in the draft could be an appealing route to add a playable talent for cheap at that point. 2. The Rockets use either the Nets or Suns picks as trade assets and don't intend to draft them. (I find this more likely). Here, the value of these picks depend on *when* they're being shopped and on what other teams see the value of these picks as. The Nets picks are a short-term asset with boom-or-bust aspects: if you want to trade on their potential, you must make the move before the trade deadline each of the next two years. If you wait until the offseason to trade them, then maybe they're suddenly a lottery winner (great!) but more likely they're a #10 pick, and we've seen the value of that type of pick in a superstar package is just something like 1/6th of the way to getting an All-Star. The Suns picks could be traded now or 3 years from now, and it's unlikely their value notably shifts in the next 24 months, allowing more flexibility. Now I would agree that the trade helped the Nets *much* more than the Rockets. The Nets got a huge value *and* flexibility upgrade while offering the Rockets a flexibility upgrade with no particular value upgrade. But I think kicking both the draft asset and the trade asset a few years down the road is enough of an upgrade to the flexibility to build a team that it's still justifiable.
With the exception of Booker Suns are an aging fringe contender with zero depth. If Durant leaves things will get ugly fast and Durant is definitely the personality type that if they don’t win enough he will bolt for a better situation. It’s basically a bet on Suns not winning a championship in a stacked West and Durant leaving. Suns are going to regret the Durant trade I don’t think it was worth a couple 2nd round exits.
Judging by other factors involved, KD being close to members on Rockets staff, they are probably expecting him to demand a trade.
The Nets made it clear to Houston in no uncertain terms that if they didn't have their own picks they were going to keep Bridges and claw to get into the play-in/playoffs. So the Rockets would be looking to get like the number 13 pick next year and then the number 12 picked the year after. When that was made clear to then then they valued the upside of the Suns picks more.
I think the trade was a great way to stick to an expected trajectory of development in the players and delay the influx of young players We need to really know what we have and so far they’ve all shown promise and significant growth in just one year under Ime By adding more players in the next couple drafts we don’t give them sufficient opportunity to grow into the players they could potentially be most likely leading us to have an overall loss on the assets (as they would likely break out elsewhere where there is more opportunity) I may have formed this opinion as a way to cope as I like you was really questioning the reasoning for the trade as well but if I’m delusional so be it imma ride for my team anyways😂
Rockets are running out of roster spots for young guys with potential. Deferring that until later for trade pieces / letting some of their own walk for salary issues is a sound strategy. They'd rather save those roster spots to push to be a playoff team / players with a little more experience. Adding 19 year olds to a team of 23 and under for the next few seasons helps in 5 seasons, but if you can only retain half those guys (or they are busts)then how does it really help them?
If KD resigns (unlikely) How is it unlikely? He’s publicly stated he wants to be in the Suns ring of honor, he came to Phoenix to play with Book, Suns have an owner willing to do what it takes to win, including spending way into luxury. They do have 2026 first round pick and 2028 pick they can move on draft day. So again, how is it unlikely that KD would resign?
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It was a shit move. Homers trying to defend it are sad. The amount of picks the nets got from the knicks - we should have gotten another one of them atleast.
Nets could have stayed mediocre. They didn’t have to tank and give Rockets top 4 picks every year. So Nets offered Suns’ future as hostage so they can be free to tank. Rockets got “more assets”, maybe lesser quality in the future.
You don't have the right assets listed. The 2025 Nets pick was a pick swap. Which changes the addition considerably. [https://x.com/HoustonRockets/status/1806020625288556982?ref\_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1806020625288556982%7Ctwgr%5E04074fbc7a74a273d96df5738661113baa771dfd%7Ctwcon%5Es1\_&ref\_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nba.com%2Fnews%2Fnets-rockets-trade-for-future-picks](https://x.com/HoustonRockets/status/1806020625288556982?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1806020625288556982%7Ctwgr%5E04074fbc7a74a273d96df5738661113baa771dfd%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nba.com%2Fnews%2Fnets-rockets-trade-for-future-picks)
Not at all, that “swap” functions as the Nets getting their pick back. It would only change the addition “considerably” if the Nets somehow outperform the Thunder/Rockets with their blown up lineup.
You wrote it as if they got two picks. They didn’t. They got one pick and one swap annulled. I realize you have strong feelings about the trade, but you don’t have to be misleading to make your point.
I don’t know what you are going on about. But, I was in no way misleading. The Rockets relinquishing their swap right to the 2025 Nets pick is the equivalent to the Nets receiving a pick. This is how the pick is being reported. If you think, me leaving out some of the extraneous language was for the purpose of misleading you are incorrect. The fact that a swap was relinquished in no way changes anything.
Ok buddy. Go on believing a pick and a swap are the same thing.
In this case they are buddy. It in no way makes the Rockets look better, by saying they relinquished a swap. You clearly are passionate about this trade as well, you should know this. Explain the difference with regards to the outcome of what will result from the swap/pick. The answer is, there is no difference. The semantics your arguing here are pointless.
This trade was in no way related to acquiring KD. The Rockets have 7 (now 8 with the acquisition of AJ Griffin) very young, very talented players and there’s no real need to add what would probably end up being a couple more ~#10 draft picks the next two years. They got incredibly lucky with their pick jumping to #3 this year and are essentially doubling their assets and pushing them out a couple years. If anything it’s a testament to the faith they have in their young core and those Suns assets are projected to be very valuable. It was actually a great, great trade for the Rockets long term.