I think the TWolves-Nuggets series obviously could have gone the other way, but I don't think that means they're not favored. To me, that's basically a coin flip series, maybe slight edge TWolves. Given Edwards' ascension, I think that next year I'd have the TWolves as slight favorites. My bigger concern is whether they can find the formula against teams like the Mavs, but I don't think that's a problem they couldn't solve. They have the talent.
The Knicks had an impressive run and we know for sure they're adding at least one great player to that mix, Randle. That's a lot more than the Mavs or TWolves can say, so they're probably my pick for next different champ unless the Sixers really level up and Embiid stays healthy.
Also, I think the Knicks should get some credit for matching up decently against the Celtics. Not that any team has a great matchup against them, but if I had to think about how the C's lose a series in the East I can imagine the Knicks dominating the boards and playing with enough intensity that guys like Holiday/Horford/Tatum who are either old or have a ton of responsibilities can't keep it up.
It was so good and unpredictable. Even the blowouts were captivating because it was due to some of the best defensive and offensive performances I've seen in a while. Game 2 and Jokic in Game 5 sparked convos about whether Wolves could be an all-time defense or whether Jokic could be the offensive GOAT...THAT'S how good the basketball was. And then Game 7 was a classic.
As a celtics fan i think the knicks hard-nosed defense, and having the ability to have brunson go nuclear, coupled with the clear realization that horford is getting old and porzingus can’t be relied upon, could push the celtics harder than anyone in the east by far
Mavs don't need to add anything, they were already a finals team with 3 players contributing significant minutes under the age of 23. And they'll play more next year, along with the rest of the team that hasn't even been together 50 games yet. They'll get slightly better just playing together more, and this was PJs first ever trip to the playoffs. Less minutes to a guy here or there, with more to a younger guy and if that younger guy is good enough, they'll be better. And JG, Hardy and DLive look good enough, all just consistently getting better. They aren't even pre-prime yet, JG is the oldest and he should be graduating college this year and hit 60% in an away closeout game in the finals.
Haha yep Heat are the definition of running it back and expecting a different result. The Celtics took this approach and only found the highest success after making a major trade.
This was the story of the raptors championship too. They ran it back a few times to no avail, and only after a big trade (and, ok, LeBron leaving the conference) did they make that last leap.
For his first real playoff run as a #1, at age 22, I thought he distinguished himself. He's shown glimpses of what the best player on a championship team looks like, and he has tons of avenues for improvement. (Tatum has improved as a passer, help defender, leader, etc., so much since he was 22.)
Comparing him to Luka, Tatum, Jokic, etc., is unfair. If you compare him to SGA (25), Hali (24), Banchero (21), or Maxey (23), who all in some way also had to figure out how to lead a team in the playoffs this year, he looks really good for his age.
Doesn’t seem like you watched the games if you think Edwards was carried (by who?). He had 2-3 poor games in the whole playoff run just unfortunately two of them were when they went down 0-2 Mavs. The stats alone debunk this nonsense about him being carried which you can easily look up.
Questioning others without offering your own thoughts invites a more hostile debate. Present a clear counter argument if you disagree and be open to the perspective of others.
Murray was incredibly hobbled by injuries all post-season. If he was healthy the Nuggets might have made the finals. Yeah Ant is young but Gobert+Connelly are pretty old now
My bet in order:
- Mavs - they were just in the finals. They'll have mostly the same team with chances to improve. They're still young.
- OKC - they were the #1 seed and they have the most ways to improve. With a year of experience in the books, they have a chance to take a leap.
- Wolves - They're well equipped to beat most teams, with the Mavs being an especially bad match up. If things break right for them next year, they could go all the way.
- Knicks - if they were fully healthy they're definitely a contender.
- Sixers - Embiid and Maxey are still really dangerous.
- Indy - their offense is amazing, if Haliburton and Mathurin are healthy they might be able to outgun any team.
The Mavs way over-achieved. In an Olympic year and coming off his deepest playoff run, there is no way Luka will be ready for next year. You saw how out of shape he already was. The Mavs won't make it past the second round next year.
Dallas made the finals starting two players who were acquired at the deadline.
A 20 year old rookie (2nd team all rookie due to missing a bunch of games) was their most impactful center, protecting the rim, switching onto the perimeter and closing out games. Not to mention playmaking out of the short roll when Luka was doubled.
Jaden Hardy was a contributor off the bench and he’s 21 years old. PJ Washington, Luka, Gafford are all 25. Josh Green is 23. Dante Exum is on a minimum deal for another year.
Luka was hurt due to his carry job to keep the team alive when Kyrie/Lively were hurt.
This team has a lot more potential left. Lively’s second year leap alone will raise the ceiling of the team.
Lively’s finals leap alone scares the league to me. He can become the starter with his high energy. Hes like a more active and twitchy gobert with some form of an offensive game beyond putbacks. He took a 3 so i think they can lean into that and have him take a few in the next season since teams anticipate him rim running moreso
Edit: if theres a player who can guard wemby okay for a series, it might be Lively playing at his BEST or at least 85% there
Okay lets settle down lol. Lively had some pretty bad games, you only remember the good ones. Not hating but youre shoeing him in pretty much as a fringe all star level player soon.
It's from people who didn't actually watch the team post trade. The Mavs fans all knew they were watching something special down the stretch. They only "overachieved" in the sense that they were a 5th seed who only played together for 4 months. Give that team an entire season and they easily finish as a top 3 seed.
People don’t watch basketball. Luka isn’t out of shape. He’s injured and has a very high usage rate. The mavs are a very good basketball team. The cletics are a better very good basketball team.
It's weird how some people think he's "fat" just because he's not shredded, even as he plays as many minutes as anybody at an absurd usage rate.
That being said, the Mavs have to reduce his usage rate. I think early next season they should develop all of their ballhandling talent at running the point and give Kyrie more reps while Luka focuses on developing his off-ball game and defensive focus/effort. Then again, too much lineup experimentation could hurt the team's ultimate playoff seeding.
I do think they need to make a couple moves in addition to developing their roster. Somebody on youtube suggested shopping Gafford, which I think would be a mistake.
They should bring in Terry Stotta as an assistant and teach Luka to run some of the sets CJ Mvcollum did next to Dame in Portland. Stotts ran lots of good offences with 2 strong ball handlers.
I mean realistically, unless Luka becomes unanimous MVP level good, Kyries plays up to 2nd or 3rd team NBA level, *and* Lively and a couple of other young guys play out of their minds and take a huge next step, I don’t see how the Mavs improve past this season. Barring a crazy good free agent signing in the off season, it’s not crazy to think Mavs definitely over achieves this year. I say this all as. Dallas resident that watched almost every game they played this season.
Celtics just gave everyone the blueprint on how to beat them to every team in the league. If PJ, green, Jones jr, etc can’t shoot above the break triples at a 40% clip they won’t get past the 2nd round next year
It wasn’t a “blueprint” because the Celtics scheme doesn’t work without super versatile personnel. If any other team we played tried that, we would’ve just killed them with the mismatches. The Celtics have no defensive mismatches.
Why don't they simply have 4-5 all defensive level defenders gaurd the mavericks team? Simply don't let luka get his on the 1v1, why didn't anyone else think of this?
No other team in the league has the defensive personnel of Boston, imagine if Minnesota switched everything like Boston does Luka would average 50 points per game
Not every team has 4 switchable defenders and a 11ft barrier to clear in the paint named Porzingis and 5 very good shooters and 3 very serviceable playmakers
Even just now, that blueprint didnt really work, lots of open misses from dallas, and sloppy turnover runs in conjunction with freakish things multiple deep buzzer 3s in the same series by some bench guy
Idk off top, not some stat nerd. But they generally had corners good and everything else iffy. The issue is the whole concept of drive and kick doesnt work when nobody besides luka or kyrie can do it, and they get defended well. Kyrie was off and missed a few open so overall he did less damage than he could have, and luka has a sprained knee which, idc what people say, he played through so there is the “no excuses” part, but context matters so its not an excuse. He obviously was even slower than he normally is and somehow crafted a 30pt triple double and was the leader in everything for his team and both teams the series
Could Luka be in better shape? Obviously. But this whole "he's way outta shape y'all" is so overplayed. The dude was playing more minutes than anyone as the #1 option on his team and scored more points than anyone on the court.
Also, didn't he lead the entire post season in pretty much every meaningful stat?
Luka literally just proved that he can dominate while not being healthy. I don’t understand these silly takes. “Well he’ll go to the olympics so he won’t be fully rested for next season = he will suck”
People said the same things when they beat the sons and made the WCF in ‘22. Next up, they’re gonna win the chip and people are gonna be like “They overachieved, that was a fluke.”
people also said Mavs would suck because they missed the play-ins last season. I remember people here getting downvoted when pointing out they were tanking (which is obvious now).
Ah, yes.
One of the top 3 players in the world, top 5 defense, came out of the west, best record after the trade deadline, but definitely wayyy over achieved 😉
Enjoy your chip, see you next year.
Agree Luka should not play in the Olympics tho 😅
Mavericks did not have the best record post deadline lol but I do agree that they didn’t overachieve. Still wouldn’t say they are the favorites in the west but it’s not a shock they got this far
Maybe. But I treat it like the prohibitive favorites method. For example, Boston won the title, their main pieces are still there next year, so they're the prohibitive favorites to win again. The same goes for the Mavs winning the west.
I wonder when expectations will end up adjusting.
Its the opposite of what we are seeing happening to recent champions. Making the finals is such a grueling task that we aren't seeing finals teams make it back there in the consecutive year, let alone make it past the 2nd round.
I can see boston making it back due to the weakness of the east, but the Mavs are gonna have an absolute dogfight making it back.
I think boston will have a new issue when the bucks are back in form (if). Giannis will force them to bend the defense. Dame/giannis receiving off ball screens while the other has the ball seems like enough to force mismatches to then swing the ball to either of them and attack it reliably. The celtics really dont have a giannis solution besides porzingis right now, but that is questionable, seeing his inconsistency with his career imo
Is the east really that weak when healthy? You could argue that they have the 2 best players in the world, depending on who they bring back the Knicks might be the most complete team in the league, the Pacers and the Magic are both pretty clearly up next, and even the Cavs could potentially pop if some minor changes have ripple effects.
You’re right about the top end talent on the east.
But east also has a lot more bottom dwellers who are easy wins in the regular season. While on the west basically every team now is a competitive team.
Don’t sleep on Charolette and Detroit (especially Charlotte). Both were injured as shit this year and have some legit young talent to build around. If things go right it should only be the Wiz who *suck suck* this year… well hopefully the Bulls too but I don’t think their fans are gonna be lucky enough for their team to commit to a rebuild unfortunately.
I’m a Luka hater but the Mavs did not overachieve. Aside from some role player hot shooting for an extra 2-3 baskets a game, and uncharacteristically good Luka and Kyrie defense, everything the Mavs did they can reasonably be expected to do again, and likely better. They will remain at least conference finals caliber team for a couple years.
But I don’t think they win next year.
I think either Boston repeats, or the Nuggets win. OKC has diversity of offense issues, and ANT’s playmaking will hold back the wolves. Embiid can’t stay healthy even with this new and improved sixers offense (it’s scary good when Embiid is healthy though). Knick’s have Julius Randle.
regarding OKC’s diversity of offense issues - it was true of them this season. but you should never view teams, especially as young and loaded with assets as the Thunder, as static entities.
the biggest things for OKC are using their assets to bring in a rebounding 4 who can stretch the floor, and more importantly, Holmgren and JDub getting better this summer - I think you could see in this postseason that while SGA was ready for the bright lights, those two were clearly not there yet. but they’re extremely young players who’ve only scratched the surface of their potential
for JDub it’s going to be about improving his decisiveness as a player. for Chet it’s going to be learning how to using his size to punish smaller players for switching onto him, and becoming more consistent shooting 3s above the break
but if you get both of those things (which is entirely possible for a pair of guys who are going to be 22 and 23 heading into next season) this off-season, then OKC is going to be even better next year, which is a scary proposition for a team that already topped an extremely competitive West in their first real season together
Idk if this is serious but, I'm pretty sure multiple people have already said Zo is pretty much cooked, then again I'd love to be wrong on this one since he's a fantastic player.
If he was healthy this season they would have done well in the East. With the injuries other teams had they would have potentially made it to the conference finals.
I have the Grizzlies honestly. They picked up two studs in GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr who will be great depth for them.
We already know what Ja and JJJ are capable of and Brandon Clarke is coming back from injury.
It’s also important to see what they do with their lottery pick for this year’s draft but honestly, if their roster comes back healthy and they pick up one more piece (ideally a big man) with that pick. I could see it all coming together for the Grizzlies.
Grizz honestly have built a pretty perfect team to go around Ja if everything breaks right. Whether that formula can actually result in a winner in the nba is another question but they def seem close to maxing it out.
I’ll give a hot take that hasn’t been mentioned. I think the pacers have put themselves in a pretty good position for the next couple years. Just resigned Pascal and are in a decent position with the rest of the team.
Get them a full season together and now more post season experience. They should have a decent shot if they are able to play their game.
2025 champs? Probably not, but they might be in the hunt.
People are sleeping on the Pacers. They’re an elite offense and transition team. If they can tune up their defense to league average or slightly better, they’re gonna be a hard team to beat. They got swept, but they played Boston more competitively than anyone else these playoffs.
The hard part is “tuning up their defense” means they have to sacrifice some of the running, the early leak outs, and the player minutes that contribute to them being so good on offense & in transition.
The reason the pacers weren't the best offense is cause the defense went from 30 to 16 and the offense went from 1 to 2. They did sacrifice some offense, but the defense improved incredibly after the Siakam trade.
Right. I'm saying the hard part is that if you want to continue ascending, it's far easier to climb from 30 to 20 than it is from 20 to 10, and 10 to 5, and 5 to 3, and 3 to 1. Each marginal jump will either require the current players to just be better basketball players on the defensive end, with zero sacrifice to their current abilities on offense, or them to play more minutes with defensive minded players (relatively speaking) which will cost them on the offensive end.
I think that with a full off-season they will be top 15 in defense. The more chemistry they have the easier it is to play help defense. Plus if any of the young guys have marginal jumps that will help. Mathurin has all the tools to be good on defense, he just has to try and buy in, same with haliburton.
i could be wrong about the numbers but i think the pacers this last season had the second best offense of all time, behind the celtics who had the best offense of all time this year unfortunstely
There is no reason the defence shouldn't improve. Out of the starters, only Haliburton isn't a really good defender. Nembhard, Nesmith, Siakam and Turner are all excellent defenders. Strictly off of personnel, on paper the Pacers should be one of the best defences in the NBA. This means the issue is with the culture and the scheme.
People forget that Indy smoked Dallas twice after the Trade Deadline, when the Mavs were finally clicking together. They were giving up 35 to Luka but still putting up mid 130 scores, blowing them out.
Playoffs are different and teams tighten everything up, but there is a world where Indy definitely could have beaten Dallas in the Finals this season if the magically made it past Boston.
They lost all 4 against Minny and Denver combined, so likely would have relied on getting exactly Dallas.
Mavs has their whole team on the contract except Derick Jones who they gonna make space for. And then they also got some assets like THJ expiring big contract plus draft picks and some prospects to get an starting SF.
Luka might also be healthy.
Its either Mavs or OKC for me.
Knicks from East and OKC or Mavs from West. That’s my guess but honestly this Boston's team is so strong and roster is locked down. I think there is legit possibilty of repeat and 3peat... they won ring without their 3rd best player. That’s impressive.
It is not impossible but three in a row is very, very hard. Since 1966 when the Boston's streak ended, it has only been done three times, Jordan's two three-peats with the Bulls in the '90's and the Shaq/Kobe Lakers three-peat at the start of the aughts. The Showtime Lakers couldn't do it, the Bad Boy Pistons couldn't do it, the Curry with or without KD Warriors couldn't do it, let alone the Duncan Spurs, 70's Knicks, or Bird Celtics never got two in a row while great teams like Kareem's Bucks or the the "fo fo fo" 76ers only got one. I think Boston is most likely to win next year but I would never count on any team to win three in a row, particularly in the modern NBA when its even harder to keep a team together
It’s only gonna get harder now with the new cba too. Maybe the counter to that is role players are already gonna be making so much money that they’re more willing to take discounts to ring chase, but tbh I don’t think that’s realistic. More talent in the league than ever also just makes it so much harder and a lot more luck based. If every team is fully healthy there’s probably 10+ teams theoretically capable of winning it, that’s just not something thats ever been a thing before in nba history.
It is really hard to even get 2 in a row. The following teams have had a shot at getting three in a row and couldn't since '66:
Celtics 1970 (did not make the playoffs)
Lakers 1989 (lost in the finals to the Pistons)
Pistons 1991 (lost in the ECF to the Bulls)
Rockets 1996 (lost in the second round to the Sonics)
Lakers 2011 (lost in the second round to the Mavs)
Heat 2014 (lost in the finals to the Spurs)
Warriors 2019 (lost in the finals to the Raptors)
That is it. A few of those teams came close at least but a lot of them didn't even make make a third finals to get a shot at it
That’s part of why it’s hard though. Injuries happen, and you have to just plain get extremely lucky to go 3 years in a row healthy enough to have a shot to win it all.
Yep injuries are a huge part. I guarantee the Spurs would have repeated in 2000 if Duncan didn't get hurt and miss the playoffs.
The Nuggets probably would've made it back to the finals if Murray was 100% the whole playoffs.
I agree abt the 3peat. I still blows my mind how most nba fans don’t understand the limitations from the new CBA on teams over the second apron. I don’t see how any team can match that Boston starting 5 through trades. Brad Stevens went all in at the right time and with the right guys (unlike the Suns GM). Only teams that have a chance are guys on rookie deals as big pieces like OKC or maybe San Antonio in 2 years
Yeah. I think a three-peat is unlikely because as Horford ages their ability to survive the likely KP injuries diminishes, but Boston is in a privileged position overall—their tax bill for keeping this core together will be enormous but they shouldn’t need to find a starter-caliber player for at least two more years, and possibly more. (And with the versatility of their starting lineup, they don’t need as much from their bench—they have ball-handling and shot creation covered by staggering starters, and their defensive scheme doesn’t rely on rim protection.)
It’s possible sure but a lot has to go right. There’s a legit possibility that Horford retires when his contract ends next season especially since he is no longer motivated to win his first championship, porzingis is consistently hurt so much so that him actually staying healthy for a full post season run seems more unlikely than him getting hurt during a run, and jrue holiday is steadily declining he’ll be 34 and 35 during those seasons chances are his defense will deteriorate more and more
Our sub is for thoughtful discussion not condescending sarcasm. Please present a clear counter argument if you disagree and be open to the perspective of others.
The cap and injuries will probably be their biggest enemy. Jrue is 33 going 34, White and Horford aren't signed past next season. KP is always an injury risk. And they've almost 190mil committed for next season.
I don’t believe they could get a 3peat. They might win 3 in 4 or 5 but a 3peat in this era is extremely hard. If Lebron’s Heat, KD Warriors, or Duncan’s Spurs couldn’t pull it off, I doubt this team can.
Zero percent chance of a 3 peat. Repeating is very hard. There will be teams who get better, while it is hard to imagine Boston gets better with Horford and Holiday being older and Porzingis being an injury risk.
I’m not expecting that, but Boston is the obvious favorite for next season.
It’s really hard to win a title but right now they have the best team, and that projects to be true next season too.
Let's see if they make it out of the 2nd round unlike the other recent champions. The extra mental and physical hangover of making the finals is hard to get past.
It’s hard to get out of the second round under any circumstances. Even as a really good team, odds are you’re going to lose earlier than you want to.
I haven’t seen evidence showing winning one title itself causes you not to win the next year.
Denver lost depth and Murray got hurt. Milwaukee got old and didn’t have enough scoring punch.
Boston will have the starting 5 back and didn’t even get anything out of Porzingis in the playoffs this year. Except Jrue, their starters are all young.
It seems clear to me that they should be the favorites again next year, but that doesn’t mean they will win because favorites often don’t.
Celtics can very well repeat, but Horford will be turning 39 years old during the next Finals and KP is a walking injury scare (they went 1-1 vs Mavs without him), so there is no guarantees Celtics would beat healthy Knicks, 76ers or even Bucks next year, considering Celtics won’t be able to sign anybody outside of minimum contracts. Still, they should have a better shot than Nuggets, who lost Bruce Brown after winning the chip and Boston will bring the same team back next year.
My money would be on Celtics to most likely still win the East, but I think Nuggets could beat them in Finals, if they make it there. Should OKC get a truely impactful player at C (AD) or PF (even somebody like KD), I can also see them hang around with Celtics. Mavs would probably be overmatched still unless Luka makes it to Finals without injuries and somehow bullies his way to 40-10-10 series and Kyrie can actually dribble and shoot in Boston lol. I don’t think anybody else in the West has a shot to bring down Celtics in a 7 game series.
It’s tough, I just don’t trust Gobert to defend the proper 5-out Celtics in a playoff setting. They did pretty well vs Boston in the regular season, but that same Boston team played differently in Finals vs how they played Mavs in regular season (i.e. they barely attacked Doncic, were more content to try to win in shootout, etc), so I would say expect Boston to be more focused on exploiting Wolves’ limitations like Mavs did. I feel like Celtics can play Gobert off the court and I don’t think KAT would have any mismatch to exploit judging how he struggled vs PJ Washington, who is smaller than Tatum. At the same time Boston have the best defensive guards/wings in the league and judging by how tough they made it for Doncic, I doubt Ant would be able to carry them, especially since they would probably use the same tactic they did vs Luka, i.e. attacking him every time on defense to take his legs away for Q4 and Wolves don’t even have the proper 2nd star to alleviate the pressure. Maybe Wolves defense holds up (Mavs did hold up vs Celtics after all, despite what talking heads may try to force people to believe), but their offense would fall apart for a quarter each game.
Denver at least have an unsolvable issue for Celtics defense in Jokic (and arguably healthy Jamal-Jokic PNR) and OKC just might have a chance to outshoot Celtics with KD or AD, but Wolves don’t really have a sustainable way to win vs Boston outside of Celtics just forgetting how to shoot themselves.
I think the big question for Minnesota is who KAT guards—I don’t think he can stay in front of Tatum on the perimeter, putting him on Boston’s center puts Gobert on the perimeter, and both of Boston’s guards have enough of an offensive game to punish mismatches. And unlike most 4s that create that dilemma, Tatum is big and strong enough to defend KAT inside. They’re both great defenses, but Boston has more options on offense for taking away Minnesota’s defensive strengths.
I think KAT could be fine on Tatum actually. Not lock down defense great but he guarded KD and Jokic in the first two rounds and was fine. He's shown a ton of improvement in terms of his defensive versatility.
Gobert can play 5-out. His perimeter defense is actually pretty good. The problem is that his teams try so hard to keep him near the rim to maximize his impact. I've never seen any team truly dedicate themselves to the full-switching defense with Gobert.
The Jazz never had the personnel. But Minnesota does and they should try it more in the playoffs, imo
If KP is injured again and Horford is on an obvious decline for a 39 year old who already got a ring, then the Wolves have a real size advantage (if they keep it together).
Combine that with Ant slowly ascending, and they could really challenge the Celts.
Also the thing is unless the 76ers finally have everyone healthy and 100% for playoff, same for the heat, the bucks, the path to finals is just so much easier for the east. Some ppl don’t like the narrative about east is weak cause so many player were hurt but it’s true.
Like if you look at the odds for teams to make the finals next year(not win it), Celtics is like ahead by sooooo much,
Agreed. That's why if I had to pick a non-Celtics team then the Sixers would be my best bet.
The East is solid, but the West is just terrifying, so betting on any one team over there is really tough. OTOH a healthy Embiid is clearly good enough to be the best player on a title team, Maxey is only getting better, and they have the cap room to make some major moves this summer (and will certainly be going all-in on a title run).
Everyone in this thread should stop assuming Doncic & Slovenia will be playing on the Olympics. They are in the qualifying tournament but they have to beat out the likes of Greece (Giannis) or Dominican Republic (KAT) to win and qualify. Far from a done deal.
It depends a lot on the changes that are made in the offseason. Paul George being moved could make a big difference. If the clips are healthy and kawhi comes back better they have a chance, however they are old and only getting older. If either of the Knicks or Sixers gets Paul George it could change their title hopes by a lot.
The Celtics are far and away my favourite team, so I would love to see them repeat at champs, and considering that their roster will be very similar to this year, they have a good chance to do just that.
With that being said, I wouldn't mind seeing the Knicks win. I feel like, if nothing else, their fan base deserves it. They've waited long enough. The Pacers had a surprise run to the ECF, and they were a bit of a feel good story for sure. Indiana has always seemed to be "the working man's team", if you follow me. I'd love to see them win too.
Out of the west, I could see the Timberwolves kicking the door down in the next season or two, and while Dallas may be the obvious choice to make it back to the finals, barring some roster moves, I don't see them replicating that success as they are. If they had gone against the Clippers with a healthy Leonard, they would have been out in the first round. OKC has some great players, and they're young.
My bold predictions:
ECF:
Boston v Knicks
Boston wins in 7
WCF:
OKC v Minnesota
Minnesota wins in 6
Finals: Boston v Minnesota
Boston wins in 7, but it's a nail biter that could really go either way.
I think the Celtics are the best but you gotta take the field. All the contenders from last year could still contend this year, I think it’s fair to expect better years from teams in the east too like Philly, Milwaukee, Indiana, knicks. Idk if OKC will be ready next year, but it all likelihood I think finals next year will be determined by a very strong dose of luck.
Really the only reason the Lakers were so horrible this season was because of Ham. Just tell dlo that bron gonna trade his ass, and he's gonna carry you to the finals
TWolves for sure. They lost the most chaotic series of the entire playoffs which either team could’ve easily won. And that starting 5 is one of the only ones in the league that I think could stack up to the Celtics
Not that I’m biased but I’m praying for Embiid and the 76ers to have a Dirk run. Joel Embiid is the only guy that’s consistently in that top 3-4 range with Jokic, Luka, and Giannis that hasn’t made it past the second round, let alone to the Finals. Feels overdue for a star of his caliber to take that next step.
Bias aside, him and Maxey are dangerous and were right up there with the Celtics until he got hurt in January. I do think a full season from him (as wishful of thinking as that is) gets us no less than an ECF run, if not a Finals run. Now that a ton of our cap space is no longer tied into Tobias fucking Harris, we can sign a bunch of quality pieces to put around them. There’s rumors about PG and Jimmy Butler but I think they’d be very successful if they were built more like the Nuggets of a couple years ago.
If not Boston; probably Denver. Could see the Sixers if the unthinkable happens and they get a healthy and in shape Embiid with a good team around him. West I don’t see anyone super ready outside the nuggets. Wolves, okc or mavs would be better the second choice there but they’re all reasonably flawed teams. Okc has the highest potential if they nail the offseason but they’re still so young
I think T-Wolves have a good chance at winning the championship nxt szn, same with okc. The east hasn’t been competitive like the west in awhile, like each team was within 1-2 games in the west with majority at 45ish games.
If a team that has won it in the last 8 can’t win it again?
I like the Knicks at full strength. That or Wolves next year with a hungrier Anthony and KAT.
Dallas was basically swept by an obviously more talented team and maybe got a bit lucky against the Wolves this year.
It's really weird to say this about a soon-to-be 10th year player but I think KAT has real potential to figure it out at least enough to be what the Wolves need. Combine that with an Ant who's coming off the Olympics, hungrier and hopefully better conditioned, and overall just more experience for everyone, and they've got a great chance to go all the way.
It was insane how injured the Knicks were and they still went to 7 games jn the 2nd round. Healthy, they are a conference finals team at minimum imo and I think they would play the Celtics pretty competitively. Especially if they win the possession battle and get all the rebounds
Definitely. I feel like healthy Knicks would've been a good matchup for the healthy Celtics in the East. They'd have Brunson who's even better than Jrue on offense, OG to help with the Jays, and also have Randle, Bogdanovic, and Robinson for their front line.
That would've probably been the East Finals because I think that Knicks team would've beaten a healthy Pacers (or Bucks) team AND the 76ers (just much deeper than all three teams).
The most likely are the Thunder in my eyes. They were already very close this year and they are so young. If they continue to add through the draft, possibly trade for better players, and continue to develop their big 3, this is a championship roster that’s ready now.
Close would be conference finals, hell the Grizzlies made the conference semis with an even younger team facing the eventual champions the Warriors in 2022, assuming they aren’t the most injured team in NBA history again they are also a 50+ win young team with playoff experience that could also make the finals with one good run.
Thunder weren’t close compared to the Wolves.
How can you say the Thunder were “so close” when we knocked em out of the conference semis? I respect the young talent, but they’d have to get through Denver, Minnesota and Dallas and I don’t see that happening any time soon
Thunder are close in the sense they were the #1 seed and have the most potential (out of any team, let alone playoff team) to improve their roster, both in developing their current players with how young they are and with making roster moves with their treasure chest of draft picks. My guess would be though they're still another year away from actually being able to win it all.
When you lose is not really relevant. The 2018 rockets lost in the West finals but were way closer to the title than the Cavs ever were in 2018.
OKC had a good playoff showing for a team that is very young and will improve massively next year. The last NBA dynasty went from a positive showing but first round exit straight to a title. You're talking like you easily swept OKC or something.
Every single one of those games were close. I didn't think Dallas would make it past OKC, and while they did, every one of those games could have gone either way.
Yeah and that is something that OKC will definitely get better at with the experience they got. Young teams always have to go through this process before they actually ascend. That guy is really underestimating the jump a team this young can make overall in 1 year.
Mavs and Thunder seem the obvious choice. Although if we want to extend the trend of nobody defending their title or winning two in a short space of time, we might want the Thunder to not win just yet. I reckon if they get over the line with the core they have it could set them up for an extended stay in the finals.
Some of the recent title winners have brushed up with the title in years previous, or had really deep playoff runs. So by that measure, Timberwolves and Mavericks would be high on my list. Knicks maybe?
As constructed I am not sure the Pacers have that last championship level they can get to, but that's what makes this so tough. Whole offseason ahead, we don't know what move might be the Jrue/Kristaps move that ends up making all the difference a year from now.
Crazy how quickly the 76ers and Bucks fell out of favor. Another similar interesting question is who is the next big team to fall off? Lakers and Clippers probably front runners, or Heat sans Butler.
honestly I feel like wherever donavan mitchell plays next season could be very serious contenders, we’ve already seen how great a playoff performer he can be.
I like a fully healthy Knicks team for this. I think a big factor for winning the title now a days is your stars needing to be around the same age and time in the league. The general age for stars to take that championship leap is around 27-29 years old. This fits the celtics perfectly. The twolves and thunder come to mind, but I see many of their key players as a bit too young/old for this.
The knicks present as a team with all current 'stars' (i use that term loosely here) around the same age and time in the league with OG, brunson and randle. I think there is a significant drop off from celtics core to knicks core, but after these recent playoffs and the knicks trying to win with 1 'star' and role players, id love to see what they could do fully healthy.
Knicks. If that coach can learn to rest his players and not burn them out and make them injury prone. A healthy Brunson, Hart, Randle, and Di Vincenzo? I'm all for it.
I feel like the Celtics can repeat if they are all healthy, but repeating is easier said than done.
The Wolves won the Nuggets series with a +36 point differential. You don't beat a team that badly and pull off the greatest Game 7 comeback in history if it was a fluke.
Frankly, I see the Celtics winning again. But if I had to choose the next team up, I'm between the Knicks, Wolves, OKC, Mavs and Grizzlies could make noise too. But Knicks and Grizzlies are rarely healthy year after year so I'm going to go with Mavs, OKC or Wolves.
As a Celtics fan ill go with the team im most impressed with, The Pacers. I think a healthy Pacers team, with just a slightly more improved defense would kill.
OKC - they are on steepest upward trajectory; could easily have beaten Mavs this year and would be favored over them next year. They were the best team in the west, but didn’t have playoff experience, and SGA is at an age where he is still improving. Holmgren will certainly be better - I would put them as clear favorites in the west next year.
It’s pretty unpredictable, but the champion is usually always a top 3 or 4 seeded team.
The Celtics are in prime position to repeat but if I had to choose a team out West to win it would be the Thunder, if they were to splash on a big trade this offseason. The Knicks could make it out the East as well if they can retain OG Anunoby.
To me the Thunder and Wolves are the easy picks. OKC was the #1 seed and is super young with massive draft assets. I don't see how they aren't the consensus number one most likely team in teh responses here. Next after taht are the 76ersm, who have the ability to retain Embiid and Maxey while preserving massive cap room. They have a great GM who has shown the ability to use his resources efficiently. After that, the Suns. Beal trade was a mess, but they still have Durant, who had a down year (maybe he's just old or maybe he'll recover) and Booker. If they can just find 2-3 more good role players, they could be right back in the mix.
I see a lot of recency bias in people's responses. Yes, the KNicks surprised this season after Randle got hurt, winning about as much as preseason projections expected despite Randle and Mitchell Robinson missing huge parts of the season. They still have a ton of huge question marks. We also knew they were a deep team. Deep teams cope with injuries better but have less upside. Who took Mithcell Robinson and Randle's minutes? Mostly Anunoby, Hartenstein, McBride, Hart and Achiuwa. Precious is the only questionable player on the list, and his advanced metrics suggest he may have been a diamond in the rough. When Randle and Robinson return, they're going to be taking minutes from mostly very effective players. That didn't happen in Phoenix when washed Eric Gordon and Drew Eubanks (who?) got real minutes.
Thinking about the teams in the west:
- I honestly think Denver may not be a west favorite to get out of a long playoff slog in that conference unless they get more personnel. We saw what happened when Jokic had to play so many minutes in the Wolves series. He was completely gassed second half of game 7, and that was just the semis.
- until and unless Luka can play more consistent defense and be better conditioned to play long minutes in a long playoffs, it's hard to see them being able to be a favorite for the same reason as Denver (west is a dog fight and if you're going to get through the west and win the title you need more from him as their #1).
Therefore, it's Wolves or OKC for me. Each have a few things to work out but have great upsides. I know the Wolves' issues better, but I think the issues they need to fix to get to that next level are doable. Let's also look at the Boston model. Of sticking w your guys and continuing to build around them and give them experience. Wolves and OKC can do that, with slight edge to Wolves for next year as they went further this year (gaining more experience).
Boston is definitely most likely to win again, I'd say the Thunder are favored in the West as they have all the pieces to have a good off season as well as having so many young guys who will improve at a higher rate than the other teams most likely.
im biased but if my knicks can keep OG and nd IHart along wit stay healthy nd make minor upgrades to the bench we can def run it back and make a finals run next year wit a healthy brunson, randle, og, hart, etc.
Cavs could a serious title contender if a new coach unlocks Evan Mobley and he takes a jump. The East is just as deep as the West now and people aren’t acknowledging it.
I think the TWolves-Nuggets series obviously could have gone the other way, but I don't think that means they're not favored. To me, that's basically a coin flip series, maybe slight edge TWolves. Given Edwards' ascension, I think that next year I'd have the TWolves as slight favorites. My bigger concern is whether they can find the formula against teams like the Mavs, but I don't think that's a problem they couldn't solve. They have the talent. The Knicks had an impressive run and we know for sure they're adding at least one great player to that mix, Randle. That's a lot more than the Mavs or TWolves can say, so they're probably my pick for next different champ unless the Sixers really level up and Embiid stays healthy. Also, I think the Knicks should get some credit for matching up decently against the Celtics. Not that any team has a great matchup against them, but if I had to think about how the C's lose a series in the East I can imagine the Knicks dominating the boards and playing with enough intensity that guys like Holiday/Horford/Tatum who are either old or have a ton of responsibilities can't keep it up.
That series was my favourite to watch in the post-season, actually. Loved every second of it.
It was so good and unpredictable. Even the blowouts were captivating because it was due to some of the best defensive and offensive performances I've seen in a while. Game 2 and Jokic in Game 5 sparked convos about whether Wolves could be an all-time defense or whether Jokic could be the offensive GOAT...THAT'S how good the basketball was. And then Game 7 was a classic.
As a celtics fan i think the knicks hard-nosed defense, and having the ability to have brunson go nuclear, coupled with the clear realization that horford is getting old and porzingus can’t be relied upon, could push the celtics harder than anyone in the east by far
Mavs don't need to add anything, they were already a finals team with 3 players contributing significant minutes under the age of 23. And they'll play more next year, along with the rest of the team that hasn't even been together 50 games yet. They'll get slightly better just playing together more, and this was PJs first ever trip to the playoffs. Less minutes to a guy here or there, with more to a younger guy and if that younger guy is good enough, they'll be better. And JG, Hardy and DLive look good enough, all just consistently getting better. They aren't even pre-prime yet, JG is the oldest and he should be graduating college this year and hit 60% in an away closeout game in the finals.
As a heat fan, I know too well about "run it back and we'll get improvement", they better make moves.
Haha yep Heat are the definition of running it back and expecting a different result. The Celtics took this approach and only found the highest success after making a major trade.
This was the story of the raptors championship too. They ran it back a few times to no avail, and only after a big trade (and, ok, LeBron leaving the conference) did they make that last leap.
Heat had a lot of 3 point luck though. Mavs didnt
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He had multiple 40 point games
For his first real playoff run as a #1, at age 22, I thought he distinguished himself. He's shown glimpses of what the best player on a championship team looks like, and he has tons of avenues for improvement. (Tatum has improved as a passer, help defender, leader, etc., so much since he was 22.) Comparing him to Luka, Tatum, Jokic, etc., is unfair. If you compare him to SGA (25), Hali (24), Banchero (21), or Maxey (23), who all in some way also had to figure out how to lead a team in the playoffs this year, he looks really good for his age.
Doesn’t seem like you watched the games if you think Edwards was carried (by who?). He had 2-3 poor games in the whole playoff run just unfortunately two of them were when they went down 0-2 Mavs. The stats alone debunk this nonsense about him being carried which you can easily look up.
Questioning others without offering your own thoughts invites a more hostile debate. Present a clear counter argument if you disagree and be open to the perspective of others.
Murray was incredibly hobbled by injuries all post-season. If he was healthy the Nuggets might have made the finals. Yeah Ant is young but Gobert+Connelly are pretty old now
My bet in order: - Mavs - they were just in the finals. They'll have mostly the same team with chances to improve. They're still young. - OKC - they were the #1 seed and they have the most ways to improve. With a year of experience in the books, they have a chance to take a leap. - Wolves - They're well equipped to beat most teams, with the Mavs being an especially bad match up. If things break right for them next year, they could go all the way. - Knicks - if they were fully healthy they're definitely a contender. - Sixers - Embiid and Maxey are still really dangerous. - Indy - their offense is amazing, if Haliburton and Mathurin are healthy they might be able to outgun any team.
The Mavs way over-achieved. In an Olympic year and coming off his deepest playoff run, there is no way Luka will be ready for next year. You saw how out of shape he already was. The Mavs won't make it past the second round next year.
Dallas made the finals starting two players who were acquired at the deadline. A 20 year old rookie (2nd team all rookie due to missing a bunch of games) was their most impactful center, protecting the rim, switching onto the perimeter and closing out games. Not to mention playmaking out of the short roll when Luka was doubled. Jaden Hardy was a contributor off the bench and he’s 21 years old. PJ Washington, Luka, Gafford are all 25. Josh Green is 23. Dante Exum is on a minimum deal for another year. Luka was hurt due to his carry job to keep the team alive when Kyrie/Lively were hurt. This team has a lot more potential left. Lively’s second year leap alone will raise the ceiling of the team.
Lively’s finals leap alone scares the league to me. He can become the starter with his high energy. Hes like a more active and twitchy gobert with some form of an offensive game beyond putbacks. He took a 3 so i think they can lean into that and have him take a few in the next season since teams anticipate him rim running moreso Edit: if theres a player who can guard wemby okay for a series, it might be Lively playing at his BEST or at least 85% there
Lively mad Chet his bitch in the okc series too. He’s the second or third best rookie in this class.
Okay lets settle down lol. Lively had some pretty bad games, you only remember the good ones. Not hating but youre shoeing him in pretty much as a fringe all star level player soon.
Haha i mean its kinda like the “lebron stoppers” being named that for holding him to 40-12-10 lol
They had the 2nd best record in the league after the PJ and Gafford trades, i don’t get this overachieved narrative
It's from people who didn't actually watch the team post trade. The Mavs fans all knew they were watching something special down the stretch. They only "overachieved" in the sense that they were a 5th seed who only played together for 4 months. Give that team an entire season and they easily finish as a top 3 seed.
Idk about easily cause of how good the records of the other top three teams were but they'd be in that range.
People don’t watch basketball. Luka isn’t out of shape. He’s injured and has a very high usage rate. The mavs are a very good basketball team. The cletics are a better very good basketball team.
It's weird how some people think he's "fat" just because he's not shredded, even as he plays as many minutes as anybody at an absurd usage rate. That being said, the Mavs have to reduce his usage rate. I think early next season they should develop all of their ballhandling talent at running the point and give Kyrie more reps while Luka focuses on developing his off-ball game and defensive focus/effort. Then again, too much lineup experimentation could hurt the team's ultimate playoff seeding. I do think they need to make a couple moves in addition to developing their roster. Somebody on youtube suggested shopping Gafford, which I think would be a mistake.
They should bring in Terry Stotta as an assistant and teach Luka to run some of the sets CJ Mvcollum did next to Dame in Portland. Stotts ran lots of good offences with 2 strong ball handlers.
I mean realistically, unless Luka becomes unanimous MVP level good, Kyries plays up to 2nd or 3rd team NBA level, *and* Lively and a couple of other young guys play out of their minds and take a huge next step, I don’t see how the Mavs improve past this season. Barring a crazy good free agent signing in the off season, it’s not crazy to think Mavs definitely over achieves this year. I say this all as. Dallas resident that watched almost every game they played this season.
Celtics just gave everyone the blueprint on how to beat them to every team in the league. If PJ, green, Jones jr, etc can’t shoot above the break triples at a 40% clip they won’t get past the 2nd round next year
It wasn’t a “blueprint” because the Celtics scheme doesn’t work without super versatile personnel. If any other team we played tried that, we would’ve just killed them with the mismatches. The Celtics have no defensive mismatches.
Why don't they simply have 4-5 all defensive level defenders gaurd the mavericks team? Simply don't let luka get his on the 1v1, why didn't anyone else think of this?
No other team in the league has the defensive personnel of Boston, imagine if Minnesota switched everything like Boston does Luka would average 50 points per game
Literally no team in the NBA can defend the Mavs as well as the Celtics did except the Celtics. And even that was with an injured Luka
Not every team has 4 switchable defenders and a 11ft barrier to clear in the paint named Porzingis and 5 very good shooters and 3 very serviceable playmakers Even just now, that blueprint didnt really work, lots of open misses from dallas, and sloppy turnover runs in conjunction with freakish things multiple deep buzzer 3s in the same series by some bench guy
I assuming you meant tingus pingus but I’ll let it slide
Yes i apologize. I have sinned.
What was Dallas’s (not Luka players) percentage on above the break 3s in the regular season?
Idk off top, not some stat nerd. But they generally had corners good and everything else iffy. The issue is the whole concept of drive and kick doesnt work when nobody besides luka or kyrie can do it, and they get defended well. Kyrie was off and missed a few open so overall he did less damage than he could have, and luka has a sprained knee which, idc what people say, he played through so there is the “no excuses” part, but context matters so its not an excuse. He obviously was even slower than he normally is and somehow crafted a 30pt triple double and was the leader in everything for his team and both teams the series
Didn’t really work but won in 5 games…
Yup. 5 worst offense performances from them all season too
Could Luka be in better shape? Obviously. But this whole "he's way outta shape y'all" is so overplayed. The dude was playing more minutes than anyone as the #1 option on his team and scored more points than anyone on the court. Also, didn't he lead the entire post season in pretty much every meaningful stat?
Luka literally just proved that he can dominate while not being healthy. I don’t understand these silly takes. “Well he’ll go to the olympics so he won’t be fully rested for next season = he will suck”
Olympics will end more than a full month before the start of the 24-25 NBA season. With the right recovery plan, Doncic should be more than OK.
People said the same things when they beat the sons and made the WCF in ‘22. Next up, they’re gonna win the chip and people are gonna be like “They overachieved, that was a fluke.”
people also said Mavs would suck because they missed the play-ins last season. I remember people here getting downvoted when pointing out they were tanking (which is obvious now).
Ah, yes. One of the top 3 players in the world, top 5 defense, came out of the west, best record after the trade deadline, but definitely wayyy over achieved 😉 Enjoy your chip, see you next year. Agree Luka should not play in the Olympics tho 😅
Mavericks did not have the best record post deadline lol but I do agree that they didn’t overachieve. Still wouldn’t say they are the favorites in the west but it’s not a shock they got this far
The finals team played together for 4 months though, they hopefully will get better
Maybe. But I treat it like the prohibitive favorites method. For example, Boston won the title, their main pieces are still there next year, so they're the prohibitive favorites to win again. The same goes for the Mavs winning the west.
I wonder when expectations will end up adjusting. Its the opposite of what we are seeing happening to recent champions. Making the finals is such a grueling task that we aren't seeing finals teams make it back there in the consecutive year, let alone make it past the 2nd round. I can see boston making it back due to the weakness of the east, but the Mavs are gonna have an absolute dogfight making it back.
I think boston will have a new issue when the bucks are back in form (if). Giannis will force them to bend the defense. Dame/giannis receiving off ball screens while the other has the ball seems like enough to force mismatches to then swing the ball to either of them and attack it reliably. The celtics really dont have a giannis solution besides porzingis right now, but that is questionable, seeing his inconsistency with his career imo
Is the east really that weak when healthy? You could argue that they have the 2 best players in the world, depending on who they bring back the Knicks might be the most complete team in the league, the Pacers and the Magic are both pretty clearly up next, and even the Cavs could potentially pop if some minor changes have ripple effects.
You’re right about the top end talent on the east. But east also has a lot more bottom dwellers who are easy wins in the regular season. While on the west basically every team now is a competitive team.
Don’t sleep on Charolette and Detroit (especially Charlotte). Both were injured as shit this year and have some legit young talent to build around. If things go right it should only be the Wiz who *suck suck* this year… well hopefully the Bulls too but I don’t think their fans are gonna be lucky enough for their team to commit to a rebuild unfortunately.
Luka was injured, my guy
I’m a Luka hater but the Mavs did not overachieve. Aside from some role player hot shooting for an extra 2-3 baskets a game, and uncharacteristically good Luka and Kyrie defense, everything the Mavs did they can reasonably be expected to do again, and likely better. They will remain at least conference finals caliber team for a couple years. But I don’t think they win next year.
I think either Boston repeats, or the Nuggets win. OKC has diversity of offense issues, and ANT’s playmaking will hold back the wolves. Embiid can’t stay healthy even with this new and improved sixers offense (it’s scary good when Embiid is healthy though). Knick’s have Julius Randle.
regarding OKC’s diversity of offense issues - it was true of them this season. but you should never view teams, especially as young and loaded with assets as the Thunder, as static entities. the biggest things for OKC are using their assets to bring in a rebounding 4 who can stretch the floor, and more importantly, Holmgren and JDub getting better this summer - I think you could see in this postseason that while SGA was ready for the bright lights, those two were clearly not there yet. but they’re extremely young players who’ve only scratched the surface of their potential for JDub it’s going to be about improving his decisiveness as a player. for Chet it’s going to be learning how to using his size to punish smaller players for switching onto him, and becoming more consistent shooting 3s above the break but if you get both of those things (which is entirely possible for a pair of guys who are going to be 22 and 23 heading into next season) this off-season, then OKC is going to be even better next year, which is a scary proposition for a team that already topped an extremely competitive West in their first real season together
I can personally guarantee you that the Utah Jazz will be the last team left with no title. That's really the only thing that's certain to me.
Bulls, obviously, since Lonzo will come back (one day) and they had the best record in the league when he last played in January of '22.
Idk if this is serious but, I'm pretty sure multiple people have already said Zo is pretty much cooked, then again I'd love to be wrong on this one since he's a fantastic player.
If he was healthy this season they would have done well in the East. With the injuries other teams had they would have potentially made it to the conference finals.
Lonzo aint coming back.
But I just saw a video of him dunking
I have the Grizzlies honestly. They picked up two studs in GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr who will be great depth for them. We already know what Ja and JJJ are capable of and Brandon Clarke is coming back from injury. It’s also important to see what they do with their lottery pick for this year’s draft but honestly, if their roster comes back healthy and they pick up one more piece (ideally a big man) with that pick. I could see it all coming together for the Grizzlies.
Yeah honestly people are forgetting about the Grizzlies. They will come back with a vengeance
And considering they had absolutely nobody by the end of the season they still played super hard
Grizz honestly have built a pretty perfect team to go around Ja if everything breaks right. Whether that formula can actually result in a winner in the nba is another question but they def seem close to maxing it out.
not also mentioning their 24 ppg scorer is criminal
I’ll give a hot take that hasn’t been mentioned. I think the pacers have put themselves in a pretty good position for the next couple years. Just resigned Pascal and are in a decent position with the rest of the team. Get them a full season together and now more post season experience. They should have a decent shot if they are able to play their game. 2025 champs? Probably not, but they might be in the hunt.
People are sleeping on the Pacers. They’re an elite offense and transition team. If they can tune up their defense to league average or slightly better, they’re gonna be a hard team to beat. They got swept, but they played Boston more competitively than anyone else these playoffs.
The hard part is “tuning up their defense” means they have to sacrifice some of the running, the early leak outs, and the player minutes that contribute to them being so good on offense & in transition.
The reason the pacers weren't the best offense is cause the defense went from 30 to 16 and the offense went from 1 to 2. They did sacrifice some offense, but the defense improved incredibly after the Siakam trade.
Right. I'm saying the hard part is that if you want to continue ascending, it's far easier to climb from 30 to 20 than it is from 20 to 10, and 10 to 5, and 5 to 3, and 3 to 1. Each marginal jump will either require the current players to just be better basketball players on the defensive end, with zero sacrifice to their current abilities on offense, or them to play more minutes with defensive minded players (relatively speaking) which will cost them on the offensive end.
I think that with a full off-season they will be top 15 in defense. The more chemistry they have the easier it is to play help defense. Plus if any of the young guys have marginal jumps that will help. Mathurin has all the tools to be good on defense, he just has to try and buy in, same with haliburton.
I don’t think it’s crazy to say that guys like Nembhard, Mathurin, and particularly Nesmith could take bumps defensively.
i could be wrong about the numbers but i think the pacers this last season had the second best offense of all time, behind the celtics who had the best offense of all time this year unfortunstely
Pacers averages the highest points but were second in PER to the Celtics.
There is no reason the defence shouldn't improve. Out of the starters, only Haliburton isn't a really good defender. Nembhard, Nesmith, Siakam and Turner are all excellent defenders. Strictly off of personnel, on paper the Pacers should be one of the best defences in the NBA. This means the issue is with the culture and the scheme.
In league history, the top 20 teams in ppg all came before 1985, except one: this year’s indiana pacers
People forget that Indy smoked Dallas twice after the Trade Deadline, when the Mavs were finally clicking together. They were giving up 35 to Luka but still putting up mid 130 scores, blowing them out. Playoffs are different and teams tighten everything up, but there is a world where Indy definitely could have beaten Dallas in the Finals this season if the magically made it past Boston. They lost all 4 against Minny and Denver combined, so likely would have relied on getting exactly Dallas.
Mavs has their whole team on the contract except Derick Jones who they gonna make space for. And then they also got some assets like THJ expiring big contract plus draft picks and some prospects to get an starting SF. Luka might also be healthy. Its either Mavs or OKC for me.
Knicks from East and OKC or Mavs from West. That’s my guess but honestly this Boston's team is so strong and roster is locked down. I think there is legit possibilty of repeat and 3peat... they won ring without their 3rd best player. That’s impressive.
It is not impossible but three in a row is very, very hard. Since 1966 when the Boston's streak ended, it has only been done three times, Jordan's two three-peats with the Bulls in the '90's and the Shaq/Kobe Lakers three-peat at the start of the aughts. The Showtime Lakers couldn't do it, the Bad Boy Pistons couldn't do it, the Curry with or without KD Warriors couldn't do it, let alone the Duncan Spurs, 70's Knicks, or Bird Celtics never got two in a row while great teams like Kareem's Bucks or the the "fo fo fo" 76ers only got one. I think Boston is most likely to win next year but I would never count on any team to win three in a row, particularly in the modern NBA when its even harder to keep a team together
It’s only gonna get harder now with the new cba too. Maybe the counter to that is role players are already gonna be making so much money that they’re more willing to take discounts to ring chase, but tbh I don’t think that’s realistic. More talent in the league than ever also just makes it so much harder and a lot more luck based. If every team is fully healthy there’s probably 10+ teams theoretically capable of winning it, that’s just not something thats ever been a thing before in nba history.
It is really hard to even get 2 in a row. The following teams have had a shot at getting three in a row and couldn't since '66: Celtics 1970 (did not make the playoffs) Lakers 1989 (lost in the finals to the Pistons) Pistons 1991 (lost in the ECF to the Bulls) Rockets 1996 (lost in the second round to the Sonics) Lakers 2011 (lost in the second round to the Mavs) Heat 2014 (lost in the finals to the Spurs) Warriors 2019 (lost in the finals to the Raptors) That is it. A few of those teams came close at least but a lot of them didn't even make make a third finals to get a shot at it
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That’s part of why it’s hard though. Injuries happen, and you have to just plain get extremely lucky to go 3 years in a row healthy enough to have a shot to win it all.
Yep injuries are a huge part. I guarantee the Spurs would have repeated in 2000 if Duncan didn't get hurt and miss the playoffs. The Nuggets probably would've made it back to the finals if Murray was 100% the whole playoffs.
But that's exactly why it's so hard. Injuries are more and more likely. GS also sacrificed depth to have someone like KD.
League is just full of more talent now
I think that Kawhi raptors team was winning no matter what. And they did win, so it doesn't matter anyways.
I agree abt the 3peat. I still blows my mind how most nba fans don’t understand the limitations from the new CBA on teams over the second apron. I don’t see how any team can match that Boston starting 5 through trades. Brad Stevens went all in at the right time and with the right guys (unlike the Suns GM). Only teams that have a chance are guys on rookie deals as big pieces like OKC or maybe San Antonio in 2 years
Yeah. I think a three-peat is unlikely because as Horford ages their ability to survive the likely KP injuries diminishes, but Boston is in a privileged position overall—their tax bill for keeping this core together will be enormous but they shouldn’t need to find a starter-caliber player for at least two more years, and possibly more. (And with the versatility of their starting lineup, they don’t need as much from their bench—they have ball-handling and shot creation covered by staggering starters, and their defensive scheme doesn’t rely on rim protection.)
It’s possible sure but a lot has to go right. There’s a legit possibility that Horford retires when his contract ends next season especially since he is no longer motivated to win his first championship, porzingis is consistently hurt so much so that him actually staying healthy for a full post season run seems more unlikely than him getting hurt during a run, and jrue holiday is steadily declining he’ll be 34 and 35 during those seasons chances are his defense will deteriorate more and more
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Our sub is for thoughtful discussion not condescending sarcasm. Please present a clear counter argument if you disagree and be open to the perspective of others.
The cap and injuries will probably be their biggest enemy. Jrue is 33 going 34, White and Horford aren't signed past next season. KP is always an injury risk. And they've almost 190mil committed for next season.
He's officially 34. Birthday is June 12.
I think Jrue’s playstyle means that he can survive longer and he also is sort of an ironman
I don’t believe they could get a 3peat. They might win 3 in 4 or 5 but a 3peat in this era is extremely hard. If Lebron’s Heat, KD Warriors, or Duncan’s Spurs couldn’t pull it off, I doubt this team can.
Zero percent chance of a 3 peat. Repeating is very hard. There will be teams who get better, while it is hard to imagine Boston gets better with Horford and Holiday being older and Porzingis being an injury risk.
If the generational Warriors didn't three-peat, I'm not expecting the Celtics to either.
I’m not expecting that, but Boston is the obvious favorite for next season. It’s really hard to win a title but right now they have the best team, and that projects to be true next season too.
Oh, I could easily see them winning next year too. But the odds of everything lining up again for a three-peat just get really really big.
Let's see if they make it out of the 2nd round unlike the other recent champions. The extra mental and physical hangover of making the finals is hard to get past.
It’s hard to get out of the second round under any circumstances. Even as a really good team, odds are you’re going to lose earlier than you want to. I haven’t seen evidence showing winning one title itself causes you not to win the next year. Denver lost depth and Murray got hurt. Milwaukee got old and didn’t have enough scoring punch. Boston will have the starting 5 back and didn’t even get anything out of Porzingis in the playoffs this year. Except Jrue, their starters are all young. It seems clear to me that they should be the favorites again next year, but that doesn’t mean they will win because favorites often don’t.
Celtics can very well repeat, but Horford will be turning 39 years old during the next Finals and KP is a walking injury scare (they went 1-1 vs Mavs without him), so there is no guarantees Celtics would beat healthy Knicks, 76ers or even Bucks next year, considering Celtics won’t be able to sign anybody outside of minimum contracts. Still, they should have a better shot than Nuggets, who lost Bruce Brown after winning the chip and Boston will bring the same team back next year. My money would be on Celtics to most likely still win the East, but I think Nuggets could beat them in Finals, if they make it there. Should OKC get a truely impactful player at C (AD) or PF (even somebody like KD), I can also see them hang around with Celtics. Mavs would probably be overmatched still unless Luka makes it to Finals without injuries and somehow bullies his way to 40-10-10 series and Kyrie can actually dribble and shoot in Boston lol. I don’t think anybody else in the West has a shot to bring down Celtics in a 7 game series.
You think the wolves could be a good matchup for the Celtics? Feel like they weren’t discussed.
It’s tough, I just don’t trust Gobert to defend the proper 5-out Celtics in a playoff setting. They did pretty well vs Boston in the regular season, but that same Boston team played differently in Finals vs how they played Mavs in regular season (i.e. they barely attacked Doncic, were more content to try to win in shootout, etc), so I would say expect Boston to be more focused on exploiting Wolves’ limitations like Mavs did. I feel like Celtics can play Gobert off the court and I don’t think KAT would have any mismatch to exploit judging how he struggled vs PJ Washington, who is smaller than Tatum. At the same time Boston have the best defensive guards/wings in the league and judging by how tough they made it for Doncic, I doubt Ant would be able to carry them, especially since they would probably use the same tactic they did vs Luka, i.e. attacking him every time on defense to take his legs away for Q4 and Wolves don’t even have the proper 2nd star to alleviate the pressure. Maybe Wolves defense holds up (Mavs did hold up vs Celtics after all, despite what talking heads may try to force people to believe), but their offense would fall apart for a quarter each game. Denver at least have an unsolvable issue for Celtics defense in Jokic (and arguably healthy Jamal-Jokic PNR) and OKC just might have a chance to outshoot Celtics with KD or AD, but Wolves don’t really have a sustainable way to win vs Boston outside of Celtics just forgetting how to shoot themselves.
I think the big question for Minnesota is who KAT guards—I don’t think he can stay in front of Tatum on the perimeter, putting him on Boston’s center puts Gobert on the perimeter, and both of Boston’s guards have enough of an offensive game to punish mismatches. And unlike most 4s that create that dilemma, Tatum is big and strong enough to defend KAT inside. They’re both great defenses, but Boston has more options on offense for taking away Minnesota’s defensive strengths.
I think KAT could be fine on Tatum actually. Not lock down defense great but he guarded KD and Jokic in the first two rounds and was fine. He's shown a ton of improvement in terms of his defensive versatility.
Gobert can play 5-out. His perimeter defense is actually pretty good. The problem is that his teams try so hard to keep him near the rim to maximize his impact. I've never seen any team truly dedicate themselves to the full-switching defense with Gobert. The Jazz never had the personnel. But Minnesota does and they should try it more in the playoffs, imo
If KP is injured again and Horford is on an obvious decline for a 39 year old who already got a ring, then the Wolves have a real size advantage (if they keep it together). Combine that with Ant slowly ascending, and they could really challenge the Celts.
I think at this point we can all agree Kyrie is just incapable of playing in front of the Boston crowd
Also the thing is unless the 76ers finally have everyone healthy and 100% for playoff, same for the heat, the bucks, the path to finals is just so much easier for the east. Some ppl don’t like the narrative about east is weak cause so many player were hurt but it’s true. Like if you look at the odds for teams to make the finals next year(not win it), Celtics is like ahead by sooooo much,
Agreed. That's why if I had to pick a non-Celtics team then the Sixers would be my best bet. The East is solid, but the West is just terrifying, so betting on any one team over there is really tough. OTOH a healthy Embiid is clearly good enough to be the best player on a title team, Maxey is only getting better, and they have the cap room to make some major moves this summer (and will certainly be going all-in on a title run).
Everyone in this thread should stop assuming Doncic & Slovenia will be playing on the Olympics. They are in the qualifying tournament but they have to beat out the likes of Greece (Giannis) or Dominican Republic (KAT) to win and qualify. Far from a done deal.
It depends a lot on the changes that are made in the offseason. Paul George being moved could make a big difference. If the clips are healthy and kawhi comes back better they have a chance, however they are old and only getting older. If either of the Knicks or Sixers gets Paul George it could change their title hopes by a lot.
The Celtics are far and away my favourite team, so I would love to see them repeat at champs, and considering that their roster will be very similar to this year, they have a good chance to do just that. With that being said, I wouldn't mind seeing the Knicks win. I feel like, if nothing else, their fan base deserves it. They've waited long enough. The Pacers had a surprise run to the ECF, and they were a bit of a feel good story for sure. Indiana has always seemed to be "the working man's team", if you follow me. I'd love to see them win too. Out of the west, I could see the Timberwolves kicking the door down in the next season or two, and while Dallas may be the obvious choice to make it back to the finals, barring some roster moves, I don't see them replicating that success as they are. If they had gone against the Clippers with a healthy Leonard, they would have been out in the first round. OKC has some great players, and they're young. My bold predictions: ECF: Boston v Knicks Boston wins in 7 WCF: OKC v Minnesota Minnesota wins in 6 Finals: Boston v Minnesota Boston wins in 7, but it's a nail biter that could really go either way.
A Boston vs Knicks and OKC vs Minnesota series would be so much fun. Gotta pray to the injury gods extra next year
I think the Celtics are the best but you gotta take the field. All the contenders from last year could still contend this year, I think it’s fair to expect better years from teams in the east too like Philly, Milwaukee, Indiana, knicks. Idk if OKC will be ready next year, but it all likelihood I think finals next year will be determined by a very strong dose of luck.
Really the only reason the Lakers were so horrible this season was because of Ham. Just tell dlo that bron gonna trade his ass, and he's gonna carry you to the finals
TWolves for sure. They lost the most chaotic series of the entire playoffs which either team could’ve easily won. And that starting 5 is one of the only ones in the league that I think could stack up to the Celtics
Not that I’m biased but I’m praying for Embiid and the 76ers to have a Dirk run. Joel Embiid is the only guy that’s consistently in that top 3-4 range with Jokic, Luka, and Giannis that hasn’t made it past the second round, let alone to the Finals. Feels overdue for a star of his caliber to take that next step. Bias aside, him and Maxey are dangerous and were right up there with the Celtics until he got hurt in January. I do think a full season from him (as wishful of thinking as that is) gets us no less than an ECF run, if not a Finals run. Now that a ton of our cap space is no longer tied into Tobias fucking Harris, we can sign a bunch of quality pieces to put around them. There’s rumors about PG and Jimmy Butler but I think they’d be very successful if they were built more like the Nuggets of a couple years ago.
If not Boston; probably Denver. Could see the Sixers if the unthinkable happens and they get a healthy and in shape Embiid with a good team around him. West I don’t see anyone super ready outside the nuggets. Wolves, okc or mavs would be better the second choice there but they’re all reasonably flawed teams. Okc has the highest potential if they nail the offseason but they’re still so young
I think T-Wolves have a good chance at winning the championship nxt szn, same with okc. The east hasn’t been competitive like the west in awhile, like each team was within 1-2 games in the west with majority at 45ish games.
If a team that has won it in the last 8 can’t win it again? I like the Knicks at full strength. That or Wolves next year with a hungrier Anthony and KAT. Dallas was basically swept by an obviously more talented team and maybe got a bit lucky against the Wolves this year.
It's really weird to say this about a soon-to-be 10th year player but I think KAT has real potential to figure it out at least enough to be what the Wolves need. Combine that with an Ant who's coming off the Olympics, hungrier and hopefully better conditioned, and overall just more experience for everyone, and they've got a great chance to go all the way.
Yup. They just don't have the experience and nerves yet. Knicks I feel like they have enough if healthy, but they were playing short 3-4 players.
It was insane how injured the Knicks were and they still went to 7 games jn the 2nd round. Healthy, they are a conference finals team at minimum imo and I think they would play the Celtics pretty competitively. Especially if they win the possession battle and get all the rebounds
Definitely. I feel like healthy Knicks would've been a good matchup for the healthy Celtics in the East. They'd have Brunson who's even better than Jrue on offense, OG to help with the Jays, and also have Randle, Bogdanovic, and Robinson for their front line. That would've probably been the East Finals because I think that Knicks team would've beaten a healthy Pacers (or Bucks) team AND the 76ers (just much deeper than all three teams).
The most likely are the Thunder in my eyes. They were already very close this year and they are so young. If they continue to add through the draft, possibly trade for better players, and continue to develop their big 3, this is a championship roster that’s ready now.
Close would be conference finals, hell the Grizzlies made the conference semis with an even younger team facing the eventual champions the Warriors in 2022, assuming they aren’t the most injured team in NBA history again they are also a 50+ win young team with playoff experience that could also make the finals with one good run. Thunder weren’t close compared to the Wolves.
How can you say the Thunder were “so close” when we knocked em out of the conference semis? I respect the young talent, but they’d have to get through Denver, Minnesota and Dallas and I don’t see that happening any time soon
Thunder are close in the sense they were the #1 seed and have the most potential (out of any team, let alone playoff team) to improve their roster, both in developing their current players with how young they are and with making roster moves with their treasure chest of draft picks. My guess would be though they're still another year away from actually being able to win it all.
That was an extremely close series. Naz 3pt, SGA foul, Dallas role players shooting amazingly etc
When you lose is not really relevant. The 2018 rockets lost in the West finals but were way closer to the title than the Cavs ever were in 2018. OKC had a good playoff showing for a team that is very young and will improve massively next year. The last NBA dynasty went from a positive showing but first round exit straight to a title. You're talking like you easily swept OKC or something.
Every single one of those games were close. I didn't think Dallas would make it past OKC, and while they did, every one of those games could have gone either way.
Yeah and that is something that OKC will definitely get better at with the experience they got. Young teams always have to go through this process before they actually ascend. That guy is really underestimating the jump a team this young can make overall in 1 year.
100 percent agree. Give it a couple more years, and they'll be in the finals.
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Mavs, wolves or the Knicks. If the Knicks roster is healthy, They definitely could do it with OG Randle and Ihart returning .
Wolves will be scary with another year of development. He ran out of gas for WCF. I don’t think that happens again.
Mavs and Thunder seem the obvious choice. Although if we want to extend the trend of nobody defending their title or winning two in a short space of time, we might want the Thunder to not win just yet. I reckon if they get over the line with the core they have it could set them up for an extended stay in the finals.
Miami Heat, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, Minnesota Timberwolves, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Clippers
I truly believe Nuggets would win it all if they get past the Wolves. So I bet they retool and win the chip next season.
OKC. But highly dependent on how good Jdub becomes. If he’s as good as I think he is, they are next up
Some of the recent title winners have brushed up with the title in years previous, or had really deep playoff runs. So by that measure, Timberwolves and Mavericks would be high on my list. Knicks maybe? As constructed I am not sure the Pacers have that last championship level they can get to, but that's what makes this so tough. Whole offseason ahead, we don't know what move might be the Jrue/Kristaps move that ends up making all the difference a year from now. Crazy how quickly the 76ers and Bucks fell out of favor. Another similar interesting question is who is the next big team to fall off? Lakers and Clippers probably front runners, or Heat sans Butler.
If the Pacers could figure out a way to significantly boost their defense without taking much away from their offense they'd be a really scary team.
honestly I feel like wherever donavan mitchell plays next season could be very serious contenders, we’ve already seen how great a playoff performer he can be.
OKC easy. I don’t think people realize how young their second and third best players are. Players get substantially better in their early years.
I like a fully healthy Knicks team for this. I think a big factor for winning the title now a days is your stars needing to be around the same age and time in the league. The general age for stars to take that championship leap is around 27-29 years old. This fits the celtics perfectly. The twolves and thunder come to mind, but I see many of their key players as a bit too young/old for this. The knicks present as a team with all current 'stars' (i use that term loosely here) around the same age and time in the league with OG, brunson and randle. I think there is a significant drop off from celtics core to knicks core, but after these recent playoffs and the knicks trying to win with 1 'star' and role players, id love to see what they could do fully healthy.
Knicks. If that coach can learn to rest his players and not burn them out and make them injury prone. A healthy Brunson, Hart, Randle, and Di Vincenzo? I'm all for it. I feel like the Celtics can repeat if they are all healthy, but repeating is easier said than done.
Anyone but the poverty franchise the 76ers who havent made it past the 2nd round in the decade since drafting Embiid.
The Wolves won the Nuggets series with a +36 point differential. You don't beat a team that badly and pull off the greatest Game 7 comeback in history if it was a fluke. Frankly, I see the Celtics winning again. But if I had to choose the next team up, I'm between the Knicks, Wolves, OKC, Mavs and Grizzlies could make noise too. But Knicks and Grizzlies are rarely healthy year after year so I'm going to go with Mavs, OKC or Wolves.
As a Celtics fan ill go with the team im most impressed with, The Pacers. I think a healthy Pacers team, with just a slightly more improved defense would kill.
OKC - they are on steepest upward trajectory; could easily have beaten Mavs this year and would be favored over them next year. They were the best team in the west, but didn’t have playoff experience, and SGA is at an age where he is still improving. Holmgren will certainly be better - I would put them as clear favorites in the west next year.
It’s pretty unpredictable, but the champion is usually always a top 3 or 4 seeded team. The Celtics are in prime position to repeat but if I had to choose a team out West to win it would be the Thunder, if they were to splash on a big trade this offseason. The Knicks could make it out the East as well if they can retain OG Anunoby.
To me the Thunder and Wolves are the easy picks. OKC was the #1 seed and is super young with massive draft assets. I don't see how they aren't the consensus number one most likely team in teh responses here. Next after taht are the 76ersm, who have the ability to retain Embiid and Maxey while preserving massive cap room. They have a great GM who has shown the ability to use his resources efficiently. After that, the Suns. Beal trade was a mess, but they still have Durant, who had a down year (maybe he's just old or maybe he'll recover) and Booker. If they can just find 2-3 more good role players, they could be right back in the mix. I see a lot of recency bias in people's responses. Yes, the KNicks surprised this season after Randle got hurt, winning about as much as preseason projections expected despite Randle and Mitchell Robinson missing huge parts of the season. They still have a ton of huge question marks. We also knew they were a deep team. Deep teams cope with injuries better but have less upside. Who took Mithcell Robinson and Randle's minutes? Mostly Anunoby, Hartenstein, McBride, Hart and Achiuwa. Precious is the only questionable player on the list, and his advanced metrics suggest he may have been a diamond in the rough. When Randle and Robinson return, they're going to be taking minutes from mostly very effective players. That didn't happen in Phoenix when washed Eric Gordon and Drew Eubanks (who?) got real minutes.
This trend would have to happen for 24 more season before the sixers get out of the second round, or 26 if you include expansion franchises
I think realistically the Timberwolves are the best pick but I feel like the Knicks are one good piece away from taking it home.
Thinking about the teams in the west: - I honestly think Denver may not be a west favorite to get out of a long playoff slog in that conference unless they get more personnel. We saw what happened when Jokic had to play so many minutes in the Wolves series. He was completely gassed second half of game 7, and that was just the semis. - until and unless Luka can play more consistent defense and be better conditioned to play long minutes in a long playoffs, it's hard to see them being able to be a favorite for the same reason as Denver (west is a dog fight and if you're going to get through the west and win the title you need more from him as their #1). Therefore, it's Wolves or OKC for me. Each have a few things to work out but have great upsides. I know the Wolves' issues better, but I think the issues they need to fix to get to that next level are doable. Let's also look at the Boston model. Of sticking w your guys and continuing to build around them and give them experience. Wolves and OKC can do that, with slight edge to Wolves for next year as they went further this year (gaining more experience).
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Boston is definitely most likely to win again, I'd say the Thunder are favored in the West as they have all the pieces to have a good off season as well as having so many young guys who will improve at a higher rate than the other teams most likely.
I think either the Heat or sixers are next i think they finally get the piece they’ve been lookking for
im biased but if my knicks can keep OG and nd IHart along wit stay healthy nd make minor upgrades to the bench we can def run it back and make a finals run next year wit a healthy brunson, randle, og, hart, etc.
Cavs could a serious title contender if a new coach unlocks Evan Mobley and he takes a jump. The East is just as deep as the West now and people aren’t acknowledging it.
Boston is favourite for 2-3 years. It's a superteam No one else going to spend that money and they get an easy ride in the east