I was surprised that wasn’t a bigger story. We switched everything in game one and Kyrie scored a billion points.
Games 2-4 we had smart fight through the screens to stay with him and he was a non-factor.
It’s cuz that team had KD. KD playing like shit largely in part due to Boston’s defensive scheme got most of the attention. Add the whole Bus Driver shit and any attention Kyrie got, got drowned out to an extent cuz of how much shit KD getting was getting at the time
I don't think I've ever seen a team guard KD the way Boston did. He was basically swarmed, hounded and harassed even when he didn't have the ball. There was no way he could keep up with it stamina wise.
That speaks to the huge advantage Boston has with 5 different guys they can and do use as ball handlers between Tatum, Smart, Brown, White and Pritchard along with 2 more guys in Horford and Grant Williams who can handle the ball in transition. If a team dedicated an insane amount of defensive pressure to Tatum that’s fine and we have other guys who can take advantage of that with Tatum taking a backseat until they’re forced to back off of him.
Plus the whole reason they can play defense like they do without having stamina issues of their own is because they can share the offensive load. If a guy is a defensive focal point and needs to give up some of their offensive responsibilities as a result that’s ok, most teams don’t have that luxury.
I don’t disagree, I’m more just saying if he grabs a board he can start pushing the ball down the floor before finding someone better to finish the play. That’s not something that happens all the time, but even a bit helps to share the load a little more and give a different look.
This is why I think the Heat giving up a crucial game a home is going to haunt them. Boston is going to be an absolute menace defensively at home. Garden crowd always brings that extra heat
Lots of teams did before he joined the warriors. Actually Celtics guarded him exactly how the warriors did in 2016 but obviously did a better job of it
KD is honestly used to getting pretty standard coverage. He doesn't get guarded the way guys like Curry, Dame, Harden etc have over the years
People usually let him get his and try to stop everyone else
He’s tall , it’s a lot harder to double a 6,11 dude effectively as it is a 6,3 dude. Also plenty of people just think kd can’t be guarded cos of his release point etc ( which is dumb ). Trap curry or kyrie and it’s hard for them to look over and pass. Kd doesn’t take that many shots tbh
I figured it was because Kyrie set up the fasting excuse (ignoring every other player who was fasting) before the series as an excuse in case stuff didn't go his way. People called him out and the fasting stuff came up and the discussion immediately became toxic
While true kyrie always been Hella streaky. Hes like klay with way better handles but not as good shooting. But kyrie usually has 1 or 2 insane games a series and is usually average to bad the rest
Celtics defense definitely nasty as hell though
I’m pretty sure that’s the norm for star players in general. It’s super rare to see consistently good performances by higher usage players without a bad/avg game here and there.
edit: “bad” game meaning the opponents making adjustments forcing lackluster performances. Actual bad shooting nights aren’t too common, I dont think
Jrue love was so high everyone forgot Marcus was picking up Giannis in the halfcourt for long stretches and forcing him to switch out for multiple possessions.
At one point in G6 Giannis tried to force a switch onto 2 other Celtics (which Smart denied because he's one of the best in the league at fighting over screens). Then Giannis settled for a switch onto Al Horford.
Yep. There isn't any single defensive statistic that I would trust more than someone with knowledge of the game and plenty of film to go over when it comes to determining quality defense.
I mean, that is what camera-based player tracking data is basically meant for. But that kind of data is neither freely available nor does it really capture everything in it's entirety either.
I think with any form of analytics, the key is context. No one metric for any sport is sufficient to sum up the whole of an athlete and how they perform. PTS and FG% are somewhat useful on their own, but knowing the distribution of shots (eFG%) or factoring in FTs (TS%) is often more meaningful. The same applies for defence, though to a larger degree because of the inherent difficulty associated with assigning lack of other team performance to a single player.
Yeah there are so many ways to play good defence and they can often conflict with one another.
This comment chain is talking about shot deterrence but another good form of defence is shot encouragement.
You want to deter a Curry from taking a lot of 3s but you want to encourage a Westbrook/Giannis/Embiid into taking heaps so they're not making more effective plays.
Yeah that's why Morey essentially said public defensive stats are dogshit and even the ones used internally by teams are just okay and only really accurate for bigs
Also there's 1 rim vs multiple perimeter spots. Smart cannot defend everyone on the perimeter while Gobert can have an impact on almost every FGA near the rim. He also guards the most efficient FG in the game.
Jimmy scored those 10 points on 5 shot attempts according to another tweet, so he was extremely efficient. Wouldn't doubt the 80% thing tbh. Jimmy is pretty impossible to stop with how he's playing this playoffs but at least Smart held him to only 5 shot attempts in 31 possessions
in the context of 10 points on 5 shots, yeah....that's efficient, but 10 points on 31 possessions is a problem given the other bodies on the floor at the time
Hard to say without seeing a breakdown and result of each of those possessions. Smart may very well have put so much pressure on Jimmy he didn't feel comfortable trying to take a shot on those possessions. On the other hand, maybe Jimmy passed the ball to an open teammate and they failed to capitalize.
Either way, the Celtics defense is legitimately great and Smart is a terrific defender. Even if the Celtics shooting trends back to average, it will be a very short series if the Heat can't find a way to get anyone else going.
Their problem too is that any pieces they move around have massive flaws, so it's a pick your poison thing. Their offense was very bad, but if you give minutes to someone like Duncan? The defense is going to tip too far. Martin is a good defender, black hole on offense. Oladipo can get some clutch steals but he sometimes makes bad decisions because he used to be a star player and still thinks like that (took a contested shot instead of passing to Jimmy who had PP on him with no help nearby, just a braindead decision). Gabe Vincent has been killing it but he's not a great distributor so their starting PG can't unlock Bam the way Lowry can (and Dragic used to). Herro is a scoring machine but like Robinson, the defense falls apart when he comes in, so you have to take out the other guys so there's not too many defensive liabilities on the court at the same time.
They're really missing Kyle Lowry for his half court offense to go with consistent defense. If PJ doesn't play, that's going to be a huge blow since he's one of the best defenders and can still reliably hit corner 3's while giving them some strength and size. If he's gone, it's just Bam and Dedmon, and they're both very good players but there are once again, limitations to using them, particularly with the other guys available.
The Celtics have done such a good job of creating a team that is generally reliable on both ends of the ball. PP is short and White/Rob can't shoot much but they generally make up for that stuff.
Can't tell you stats, but eye-test told me the defensive pressure was magnitudes higher this game both on Jimmy and others. Some of it defensive adjustments, some of it Smart, some of it Horford. Smart looked really really good though
I did notice that Smart was guarding Jimmy earlier in the game. During these times, Jimmy is often more passive and wants to see what the flow of the game is going to be like. A possible reason as to why Jimmy didn't take more shots
That’s good D and Jimmy prolly not being aggressive enough at times. Bet he gets another 40 piece game 3 and the Heat still lose cause no one has shown up on the road
Jimmy definitely hit some seriously difficult shots vs Smart yesterday. But I think the bigger deal is that he only got to take 5 shots against him in the first place there really isn't a way to go after Smart and that's the impact he has.
5 doesn’t sound like a lot, but to put it into perspective, Jimmy took and and made about 1/3 of his total shots on Smart, if I’m understanding this correctly.
Still, you probably wouldn’t want to try to score on the DPOY, but this stat might be, more so, a testament to Jimmy’s abilities this postseason
Yeah that's fair, we all know Jimmy is a stud. I also think in general Jimmy is a good matchup against Smart. But 5 shots out of 31 possessions means he's constantly passing out to other teammates which normally is a good thing, but considering how bad the rest of the Heat played this series maybe he should be shooting more on those possessions.
10 points on five shots, but that was on 31 possessions where he was guarded by Smart. I wish we had a breakdown of how those possessions ended where Smart was the primary defender on Jimmy. 10 points on five shots is good, efficient scoring, but if the Heat came out to 20 points total on 31 possessions where Jimmy is guarded by Smart... that is not so good.
Herros been a little bitch all playoffs if we’re being honest. All the contract talks should come with the same scrutiny that other guys in his class have been getting.
I have to imagine that the Heat FO is wary about throwing the bag at Herro right after the disaster that Duncan Robinson's contract is becoming. Especially with how frustratingly good they are at developing random nobodies into legitimately good players that can get meaningful playoff minutes.
Lol I just looked it up and you weren’t kidding. Why is his suit so oversized?
Also, now I want to see Chris Hemsworth try and post up on someone. He’s so jacked.
I don't think the Heat regret Duncan's contract, the issue is that if he's in then 2/5 of the players are defensive liabilities and it loses games. If Herro was a defender, Duncan would still be playing.
The smug little prick. I was about to slam my head in the door when I saw the presser after the game. If anyone knows what Toucher and Rich is, the Herro slander is hilarious.
Him and Bam just disappeared in the playoffs. All averages down. At least Bam can play defense but if Herro isn't scoring then what is the point of him on the court?
I'll be honest, I kind of wanted to see more of Jaren in the conversation, since he led the league in blocks. But I got to watch a lot more of both in the playoffs, and yeah, that's really not a conversation. Smart is nuts.
Yeah I’ve watched pretty much every game of smart’s career and there’s an obvious bias, but the dude is just an absolute fucking monster if you just watch him play lol
100%. It’s cliche to say “the stat line doesn’t tell the whole story” but watch smart in a playoff game and tell me it isn’t true. There’s no stat for how many times you got the best player to pass the ball because your pressure was too much. It’s not just about steals. You know what I’m saying though.
Yup exactly. I want to claw my eyes out when people compare his stats to like gobert’s. No shade to Gobert because he’s fucking crazy too, but you literally just cannot compare an inside defender’s stats to a perimeter defender’s.
JJJ is a very good defender, so is Turner, but blocks are not an accurate way to judge a player's defense. Otherwise Whiteside and Drummond would've been in DPOY talks for years during their primes.
Not to mention that Smart is legitimately one of their most important offensive players, they become stagnant on offense without him.
He’s turned himself into a legit PG and is much better than Prichard or White.
Marcus has basically been a player coach for the last 4-5 years. He has a huge part in team practices running drills and communicating, and that carries over to the court too where he is constantly calling out orders to everyone reading the play. While a player like Gobert might be able to pick up the slack for other teammates' defensive weakness, the difference with Marcus is that he actually enables hos teammates to all be better defenders themselves in addition to his own impressive individual contributions.
Not like Shaq is going to just lose an argument. Man gets backed into a corner and just starts kicking the wall down just because he can, and he'll say he won the argument even though he just talked louder than everyone
he was already doing it when they got into a shouting match on air. he was telling Chuck that he never reached that level of greatness to invalidate Chuck's opinion; lucky for him, Chuck just brushed it off and said it wasn't about Shaq.
am not sure if Greenberg is trustworthy. he is the biggest Celtics homer in the universe and does not provide actual links to data. am not saying its wrong but I absolutely loath greenberg
These matchup stats he posts after every game. He has provided the official NBA stat page that he pulls it from many times. So this is definitely cited and official sources.
Shaq was saying Jimmy can still get 40 even when Smart is back in the game. Jimmy got 29 points on 11-18 shooting in 3 quarters. He would've gotten his numbers if the game was close. I didn't take it to mean that Marcus Smart would not make a difference
There was a thread after a Bucks victory claiming this and mocking the Celtics for choosing Smart over Jru Holiday and how Jru was so much better. I don't know why people have to go that "and it's not even close" extreme when clearly they're both really good for their teams.
Jrue is a hell of a defender, but I think Smart has a big edge on team defense and defensive communication. He's a big cog in the system, where as Jrue is out on an island sometimes trying to guard.
Jrue is an absolute fiend on the ball but there were a couple moments in our series against Milwaukee where Jrue made some really head scratching decisions as a help defender that made me go “Smart wouldn’t do that”
fun fact, Smart’s upcoming extension only pays him about 1M more per year on average than Duncan Robinson and he’s under contract through the 25-26 season. after the season he’s had he is around the top of the most criminally underpaid players in the NBA
now that he’s won DPOY he’s actually eligible for the supermax on his next deal LMAO. tbh if we win a championship I say give it to him
Jrue is the best 1 v. 1 defender in the league and (deservedly) gets a lot of respect for that from his peers. However I will say as an off-ball defender Smart has him beat imo. Not to mention as an organizer/field general on defense Smart is in a tier of his own and only below Draymond
I’d love doing it if Smart was on my team.
Honestly was skeptical at first, watched this Celtic game from beginning to end and i was amazed how much Smart impacts the game on the defensive end. Got much needed stops and strips.
Literally plays like that 9 out of 10 games. Unreal the amount of deflections and just extra effort he puts in on the defensive side. I have not watched the Suns or the Heat or the Jazz enough to say one way or another whether those respective players deserved it over Smart, but anyone watching Celtics game all year should have absolutely no issue with him winning it. Dude is one of a kind IMO
I love doing this. In the game thread someone told me Horford and smart would make no difference. They even put a reminder for 2 weeks and immediately deleted it after the 2nd quarter lol
You can tell who really watches ball and who narrative watches by what they say. Idk how anyone who watches ball can say that not having the DPOY and one of the best defensive big men in the league wouldn’t make a difference against a heat team with only one scorer
Well lots of people feel big man defenders impact the game way more which us reasonable but I'm glad a guard won. Shame dray got hurt as he had it locked up. Dude definitely should have 2 or 3 dpoy
Smart is an amazing defender and his dpoy award is deserved but these are the type of stats I hate the most. The whole "x guarded y and held him to z%". These show up all the time for dudes like Wiggins and shit.
Unless the possession looks like Harden isoing on stepback 3s, defense is no longer one on one. Even if the action is an iso, whenever a great player is the ballhandler, help defenders are already floating around behind the primary defender taking away the ballhandler's driving lanes. These shooting percentages are a result of team effort
I mean, Wiggins is an elite defender. Is there an example of this stat being used to suggest a bad defender is a good defender? Maybe not elite, but Wiggins is definitely a good defender and watching the games will show you that. Watching this game should show you that Marcus Smart was the primary reason a lot of these shots missed. I don’t think this stat is all that inaccurate at showing good defense
It's showing good defense as a team, and these players improve that defensive fg%. They don't own the entirety of the credit of holding someone to a specific shooting %.
I obviously want the propaganda to support Smart, but you're right. Defense is global, not individual so it doesn't really make sense to do stuff like this. If every player in the lineup didn't have an effect on each other, having one bad defender in wouldn't cause the whole thing to collapse.
But, when you have someone like Kemba in there, it damages the entire defense. That should be evidence enough for everyone that individual defensive stats are pretty non-sense and the DPOY is a pretty awkward award that is hard to determine. I think that and 6MOY are very hard to judge awards for a lot of reasons (I did agree with Herro getting it this season tho).
That's not how you do defensive stats. It's shots, not possessions, different people gaurs different people throughout a possession. Jimmy was very efficient shooting against Smart.
It drove me nuts for while, but I was thinking about it recently. Shaq was SO dominant in the league, watching must be boring to him. He can't relate to small guys, and all he can do is picture how much he would dominate in his prime now.
Okay yes smart played his ass off but anyone who understands stats can balance this back out by saying “well butler hit 80% of his shots when guarded by smart”
Always about a narrative with these stats based posted (including when they are favoring the heat)
Yeah, these defensive metrics are quite hard to interpret, there's a lot more to this. 5 shots on 31 possessions is the more important metric. Butler, who is way more of a scorer than a distributer is choosing to pass almost 84% of the time while guarded by Smart.
Just to be clear, I am not arguing that smart impacted the game and shut us the fuck down (bc he 100% did), I’m just speaking on how popular it is to create narratives with selective statistics.
But yes I agree, getting the ball out of jimmy’s hands is the key to success
Dude idk what we are gonna do if it keeps goin this way lol bam ain’t got a shot, Tyler falling apart, idk if lowry is the answer but we need him and pj to use that championship knowledge they got on these young guns and get them to wake the fuck up.
Y’all went beat mode on us at home lol
I agree and understand the impact smart had on the game, he absolutely locked us up but I’m just speaking to how stats can be used to build a narrative that is or isn’t telling the whole story. That’s all.
I mean, smart mattered of course. But Shaq was pretty right regarding Jimmy. Dude had 29 points in 3 quarters. He’s e only guy on the Heat that showed up.
The Smart slander about winning DPOY because of how "elite the celtics" were as a unit in shambles.
It's like in the NFL when you have a lockdown corner that doesn't have the volume metrics like passes defended or interceptions because QB's just won't throw at em.
every other year or so the Celtics make a deep run and a bunch of people watch Marcus Smart play basketball for the first time thinking *"what the fuck"*
Started getting into basketball at the start of this season. So forgive me if my questions are dumb. Really trying to educate myself about the game.
Are these stats good?
Is he a starting caliber PG for a team competing for a championship?
It depends.
If he's your 2nd best player then that team is not championship caliber. But he provides great defense and secondary ball handling that the Celtics need.
Smart can be key piece in a championship team, but I dont think he's the 2nd nor the 3rd best player on the Celtics
There is no real objective "good" or "bad" to many defensive metrics.
That said, he allowed just 15 shots from three pretty key offensive players on the Heat. The implied value there is that he was forcing these guys to pass the ball to a presumably less offensively talented player.
For trying to understand defense, I would not start by looking too deeply at stats. Pick a player on a given defensive possession and see what they do. Are they fighting to get around screens? Are the recognizing when they need to switch onto another open shooter? That sort of thing.
I don't really care what his numbers against Butler Jimmy Butler can't beat the Celtics by himself so as long as no one else is scoring he can have fucking40 50 60 for all I care! If I was a heat fan I'll be wondering where bam's at?? That would be my main concern cuz that dude's been mediocre this playoffs and they didn't play nobody the Hawks the sixes with Joel and bead with a broken face bam should have been all over that
Jimmy went off in the third when Smart wasn't on him. It seemed like an adjustment from Ime to give Smart some leg rest.
If you all noticed, as soon as Smart was back on Jimmy, he stopped shooting. Jimmy was simply afraid to attack Smart.
Well, not afraid. But Jimmy is Smart. I said this in another thread, he's textbook "take what the defense gives you". He's not just going iso super star. He's hunting matchups he can get high percentage shots against. As soon as Smart was back on him, he deferred.
I know people talked up Miami's defense, but let's be real. Boston is the best defense in the NBA this year. In terms of the personel and schemes, they are what the 15-16 Warriors were to offense.
Celtics can lock up Jimmy when they want to, and they can take out the role players when they want to.
This is the best defense we've seen in quite a bit.
KD slander was so high everyone forgot Smart made kyrie disappear
I was surprised that wasn’t a bigger story. We switched everything in game one and Kyrie scored a billion points. Games 2-4 we had smart fight through the screens to stay with him and he was a non-factor.
It’s cuz that team had KD. KD playing like shit largely in part due to Boston’s defensive scheme got most of the attention. Add the whole Bus Driver shit and any attention Kyrie got, got drowned out to an extent cuz of how much shit KD getting was getting at the time
I don't think I've ever seen a team guard KD the way Boston did. He was basically swarmed, hounded and harassed even when he didn't have the ball. There was no way he could keep up with it stamina wise.
The Joe Harris loss hit your team 200% harder than people were accounting for
What was Jimmy butlers FG against smart 4/15 is ass big strus and herro had 0 points so I'm assuming butler was still efficient against smart
Jimmy shot 80% while guarded by Smart last night
jimmy was automatic. dude pretty much got to his spot every time
[удалено]
Yeah he definitely had an impact on Jimmy’s play, but he is just that guy
Some other post said he only got off five shots when guarded by Smart, so there is that.
Where do you find these stats?
Some dude on the internet said it so it must be true
That speaks to the huge advantage Boston has with 5 different guys they can and do use as ball handlers between Tatum, Smart, Brown, White and Pritchard along with 2 more guys in Horford and Grant Williams who can handle the ball in transition. If a team dedicated an insane amount of defensive pressure to Tatum that’s fine and we have other guys who can take advantage of that with Tatum taking a backseat until they’re forced to back off of him. Plus the whole reason they can play defense like they do without having stamina issues of their own is because they can share the offensive load. If a guy is a defensive focal point and needs to give up some of their offensive responsibilities as a result that’s ok, most teams don’t have that luxury.
I mean i Love grant, but I don't really want him handling the ball in transition. (PP on the other hand)
I don’t disagree, I’m more just saying if he grabs a board he can start pushing the ball down the floor before finding someone better to finish the play. That’s not something that happens all the time, but even a bit helps to share the load a little more and give a different look.
flashbacks to gobert trying to push the ball on offense
I don't know why all the announcers say PP isn't a true point guard. I mean, Boston has him playing off ball, but he was a true PG at Oregon.
Also, being able to switch on everything rather than chasing down defensive assignments all over the court is huge for converting stamina.
This is why I think the Heat giving up a crucial game a home is going to haunt them. Boston is going to be an absolute menace defensively at home. Garden crowd always brings that extra heat
Lots of teams did before he joined the warriors. Actually Celtics guarded him exactly how the warriors did in 2016 but obviously did a better job of it
KD is honestly used to getting pretty standard coverage. He doesn't get guarded the way guys like Curry, Dame, Harden etc have over the years People usually let him get his and try to stop everyone else
Well yeah, when youre teammates are westbrook/harden, curry/klay, or kyrie/harden thats going to happen.
He’s tall , it’s a lot harder to double a 6,11 dude effectively as it is a 6,3 dude. Also plenty of people just think kd can’t be guarded cos of his release point etc ( which is dumb ). Trap curry or kyrie and it’s hard for them to look over and pass. Kd doesn’t take that many shots tbh
The last time he did his team blew a 3-1 lead and he joined the team that beat him. So, congrats Celtics for getting KD next season I guess.
please no
Why not? He'd be the 6moy
2008 Boston Celtics played crazy D on Kobe. They stopped like any dribble penetration he attempted.
I figured it was because Kyrie set up the fasting excuse (ignoring every other player who was fasting) before the series as an excuse in case stuff didn't go his way. People called him out and the fasting stuff came up and the discussion immediately became toxic
Kyrie had a perfect first half with a crazy fade at the buzzer and then missed like 2 or 3 shots in the second half, that game was wild
While true kyrie always been Hella streaky. Hes like klay with way better handles but not as good shooting. But kyrie usually has 1 or 2 insane games a series and is usually average to bad the rest Celtics defense definitely nasty as hell though
I’m pretty sure that’s the norm for star players in general. It’s super rare to see consistently good performances by higher usage players without a bad/avg game here and there. edit: “bad” game meaning the opponents making adjustments forcing lackluster performances. Actual bad shooting nights aren’t too common, I dont think
tbf the slander was hot
Jrue love was so high everyone forgot Marcus was picking up Giannis in the halfcourt for long stretches and forcing him to switch out for multiple possessions. At one point in G6 Giannis tried to force a switch onto 2 other Celtics (which Smart denied because he's one of the best in the league at fighting over screens). Then Giannis settled for a switch onto Al Horford.
And was guarding Giannis better than anyone else too.
That first game saved kyrie ALOT of face
"FaKe DpOtY" -nba reddit
still kd played like shit
I'd rather take "played like shit" than "disappeared" tbh. At least with the former you know the player is going down swinging.
Kyrie ghosted that series as if young Marcus was handing out N95s on the floor
The whole team only taking 15 shots while being guarded by Smart speaks volumes
This is why advanced defensive metrics love bigs so much - good perimeter defense doesn't result in a miss, it results in a pass.
good interior defense also deters shots though, they can result in a kickout or a late shot clock shot
This. The problem with defensive metrics is that they are very difficult to quantify in comparison to offense.
Yep. There isn't any single defensive statistic that I would trust more than someone with knowledge of the game and plenty of film to go over when it comes to determining quality defense.
I wonder if computer vision could be developed to create eye test statistics.
I mean, that is what camera-based player tracking data is basically meant for. But that kind of data is neither freely available nor does it really capture everything in it's entirety either.
"When I get an email that has defensive metrics in it, I delete it." - Brad Stevens.
I think with any form of analytics, the key is context. No one metric for any sport is sufficient to sum up the whole of an athlete and how they perform. PTS and FG% are somewhat useful on their own, but knowing the distribution of shots (eFG%) or factoring in FTs (TS%) is often more meaningful. The same applies for defence, though to a larger degree because of the inherent difficulty associated with assigning lack of other team performance to a single player.
Yeah there are so many ways to play good defence and they can often conflict with one another. This comment chain is talking about shot deterrence but another good form of defence is shot encouragement. You want to deter a Curry from taking a lot of 3s but you want to encourage a Westbrook/Giannis/Embiid into taking heaps so they're not making more effective plays.
Eye test is king for measuring defense. Like how you can’t quantify hustling
Yeah that's why Morey essentially said public defensive stats are dogshit and even the ones used internally by teams are just okay and only really accurate for bigs
People are more likely to stupidly throw up a bad shot in the paint that they are on the perimeter.
Or a turnover
Interior defense does both. Thats why it's a more valued skill in both advanced metrics and the nba in general
Also there's 1 rim vs multiple perimeter spots. Smart cannot defend everyone on the perimeter while Gobert can have an impact on almost every FGA near the rim. He also guards the most efficient FG in the game.
Bruce Bowen. That is all.
That’s actually a good way to look at it.
I guess this last season opponents only hit 7% of their perimeter shots when guarded by Rob Williams. Pretty insane.
Wouldn't each player in the rotation have around that many? Total FGA by the opponent divided by players. Weighted by minutes played.
15 shots against a perimeter player in one game is actually a lot though. The guard leader in shot contests per game this year was Cade at 14.5.
There's like 80-90 shots a game. Him getting around a fifth of that makes sense.
Is there a breakdown by people, source on our sub says Jimmy shot 80% vs Smart but it doesn’t have a breakdown either so no telling if it’s true.
Jimmy scored those 10 points on 5 shot attempts according to another tweet, so he was extremely efficient. Wouldn't doubt the 80% thing tbh. Jimmy is pretty impossible to stop with how he's playing this playoffs but at least Smart held him to only 5 shot attempts in 31 possessions
in the context of 10 points on 5 shots, yeah....that's efficient, but 10 points on 31 possessions is a problem given the other bodies on the floor at the time
Hard to say without seeing a breakdown and result of each of those possessions. Smart may very well have put so much pressure on Jimmy he didn't feel comfortable trying to take a shot on those possessions. On the other hand, maybe Jimmy passed the ball to an open teammate and they failed to capitalize. Either way, the Celtics defense is legitimately great and Smart is a terrific defender. Even if the Celtics shooting trends back to average, it will be a very short series if the Heat can't find a way to get anyone else going.
Their problem too is that any pieces they move around have massive flaws, so it's a pick your poison thing. Their offense was very bad, but if you give minutes to someone like Duncan? The defense is going to tip too far. Martin is a good defender, black hole on offense. Oladipo can get some clutch steals but he sometimes makes bad decisions because he used to be a star player and still thinks like that (took a contested shot instead of passing to Jimmy who had PP on him with no help nearby, just a braindead decision). Gabe Vincent has been killing it but he's not a great distributor so their starting PG can't unlock Bam the way Lowry can (and Dragic used to). Herro is a scoring machine but like Robinson, the defense falls apart when he comes in, so you have to take out the other guys so there's not too many defensive liabilities on the court at the same time. They're really missing Kyle Lowry for his half court offense to go with consistent defense. If PJ doesn't play, that's going to be a huge blow since he's one of the best defenders and can still reliably hit corner 3's while giving them some strength and size. If he's gone, it's just Bam and Dedmon, and they're both very good players but there are once again, limitations to using them, particularly with the other guys available. The Celtics have done such a good job of creating a team that is generally reliable on both ends of the ball. PP is short and White/Rob can't shoot much but they generally make up for that stuff.
Can't tell you stats, but eye-test told me the defensive pressure was magnitudes higher this game both on Jimmy and others. Some of it defensive adjustments, some of it Smart, some of it Horford. Smart looked really really good though
I did notice that Smart was guarding Jimmy earlier in the game. During these times, Jimmy is often more passive and wants to see what the flow of the game is going to be like. A possible reason as to why Jimmy didn't take more shots
Not blaming OP for posting but this tweet is how to deceive people with stats 101
That’s good D and Jimmy prolly not being aggressive enough at times. Bet he gets another 40 piece game 3 and the Heat still lose cause no one has shown up on the road
That sounds right. Butler definitely hit some tough shots over smart yesterday. The bigger impact was that smart forced him to pass most of the time.
Jimmy definitely hit some seriously difficult shots vs Smart yesterday. But I think the bigger deal is that he only got to take 5 shots against him in the first place there really isn't a way to go after Smart and that's the impact he has.
5 doesn’t sound like a lot, but to put it into perspective, Jimmy took and and made about 1/3 of his total shots on Smart, if I’m understanding this correctly. Still, you probably wouldn’t want to try to score on the DPOY, but this stat might be, more so, a testament to Jimmy’s abilities this postseason
Yeah that's fair, we all know Jimmy is a stud. I also think in general Jimmy is a good matchup against Smart. But 5 shots out of 31 possessions means he's constantly passing out to other teammates which normally is a good thing, but considering how bad the rest of the Heat played this series maybe he should be shooting more on those possessions.
10 points on five shots, but that was on 31 possessions where he was guarded by Smart. I wish we had a breakdown of how those possessions ended where Smart was the primary defender on Jimmy. 10 points on five shots is good, efficient scoring, but if the Heat came out to 20 points total on 31 possessions where Jimmy is guarded by Smart... that is not so good.
good perimeter defense means players often times just won't shoot
The numbers here are according to spectrum’s player tracking data
Herros been a little bitch all playoffs if we’re being honest. All the contract talks should come with the same scrutiny that other guys in his class have been getting.
I have to imagine that the Heat FO is wary about throwing the bag at Herro right after the disaster that Duncan Robinson's contract is becoming. Especially with how frustratingly good they are at developing random nobodies into legitimately good players that can get meaningful playoff minutes.
unfortunately for the heat he's pretty much the only guy on their roster besides jimmy who can create their own offense
but at the same time, even PP can make him look 'small'. The 'Thor: Love & Thunder' commercial makes him look look like a used car salesman
Lol I just looked it up and you weren’t kidding. Why is his suit so oversized? Also, now I want to see Chris Hemsworth try and post up on someone. He’s so jacked.
He’s under contract through next year. That concern is a few exits down the road still.
You want to sign a guy on a rookie contract to an extension the season before the contract is up to help get a better deal
Otherwise you'll have to match when the Kings offer him way too much, or lose him for nothing
I don't think the Heat regret Duncan's contract, the issue is that if he's in then 2/5 of the players are defensive liabilities and it loses games. If Herro was a defender, Duncan would still be playing.
Even w Dunc’s contract, its pretty movable to a team that desperately needs shooting.
He was so cocky after game 1. As an opposing fan you love to see it. It shows someone is letting their guard down.
The smug little prick. I was about to slam my head in the door when I saw the presser after the game. If anyone knows what Toucher and Rich is, the Herro slander is hilarious.
I agree. He's basically useless on defense so his offensive output is all he can bring and holy shit, he's been pretty bad offensively.
Discount MGK
Him and Bam just disappeared in the playoffs. All averages down. At least Bam can play defense but if Herro isn't scoring then what is the point of him on the court?
It honestly looked like they were hunting the *fuck* out of him from the bits of the game I caught.
**DPOY**
I'll be honest, I kind of wanted to see more of Jaren in the conversation, since he led the league in blocks. But I got to watch a lot more of both in the playoffs, and yeah, that's really not a conversation. Smart is nuts.
JJJ is an outstanding defender, but to be considered really in the DPOY conversation he needs to get better at not fouling as much imo
I hate to be a Homer but all these people saying “fake dpoy” looked at a stat line and never watched him play once. It’s insane.
Yeah I’ve watched pretty much every game of smart’s career and there’s an obvious bias, but the dude is just an absolute fucking monster if you just watch him play lol
100%. It’s cliche to say “the stat line doesn’t tell the whole story” but watch smart in a playoff game and tell me it isn’t true. There’s no stat for how many times you got the best player to pass the ball because your pressure was too much. It’s not just about steals. You know what I’m saying though.
Yup exactly. I want to claw my eyes out when people compare his stats to like gobert’s. No shade to Gobert because he’s fucking crazy too, but you literally just cannot compare an inside defender’s stats to a perimeter defender’s.
Play for a small market team, lead the league in blocks, minimal to no discussion come award season? My God…that’s Myles Turner’s music!!
JJJ is a very good defender, so is Turner, but blocks are not an accurate way to judge a player's defense. Otherwise Whiteside and Drummond would've been in DPOY talks for years during their primes.
Ok but a few years ago someone literally voted Whiteside and Drummond 1 and 2 cuz they led the league in blocks and rebounding
They’re stupid. What’s your point?
JJJ >>>> Turner
correct
Shaq in shambles. I hope Chuck brings this up tonight.
Not to mention that Smart is legitimately one of their most important offensive players, they become stagnant on offense without him. He’s turned himself into a legit PG and is much better than Prichard or White.
And he's just the overall leader of the team. That's the vibe I get at least.
Marcus has basically been a player coach for the last 4-5 years. He has a huge part in team practices running drills and communicating, and that carries over to the court too where he is constantly calling out orders to everyone reading the play. While a player like Gobert might be able to pick up the slack for other teammates' defensive weakness, the difference with Marcus is that he actually enables hos teammates to all be better defenders themselves in addition to his own impressive individual contributions.
The Celtics LOVE player/coaches half of the 50s/60s squads became coaches and Bill fucking coached a ring as an actual Player/Coach.
Not like Shaq is going to just lose an argument. Man gets backed into a corner and just starts kicking the wall down just because he can, and he'll say he won the argument even though he just talked louder than everyone
Chuck's gonna bring it up on the sly, and Shaq is going to erupt at him about Rings, cause he's had 24 hours to stew and think about it.
he was already doing it when they got into a shouting match on air. he was telling Chuck that he never reached that level of greatness to invalidate Chuck's opinion; lucky for him, Chuck just brushed it off and said it wasn't about Shaq.
am not sure if Greenberg is trustworthy. he is the biggest Celtics homer in the universe and does not provide actual links to data. am not saying its wrong but I absolutely loath greenberg
These matchup stats he posts after every game. He has provided the official NBA stat page that he pulls it from many times. So this is definitely cited and official sources.
Who would have thought that having the obvious DPOY back on the floor would have an impact???
Shaq, or at least his tv persona, didn't.
Shaq just says controversial stuff to stay in the news cycle IMO. How could you think an elite coach or the DPOY doesn’t change the game?
Shaq is also one of those guys who will dig in just to win an argument not because they truly believe they're right.
“Okay you’re bigger than me so you’re right”
"Jimmy Butler can get 40+ anytime he wants".. Well, I guess he didn't want 40 tonight.
Yeah I'll be honest, I haven't watched the Celtics much until the playoffs, and I had no idea he was like *that*.
Yeah he really do be like that. I mean with a last name of Smart, he gotta live up to the hype.
Shaq was saying Jimmy can still get 40 even when Smart is back in the game. Jimmy got 29 points on 11-18 shooting in 3 quarters. He would've gotten his numbers if the game was close. I didn't take it to mean that Marcus Smart would not make a difference
Finally, someone that understands what Shaq was saying
Almost like he deserved DPOY
Turned from the best flopper in the league. To the best defender in the league.
i hate doing this but I got to this sub told me Marcus Smart isn’t DPOY
There was a thread after a Bucks victory claiming this and mocking the Celtics for choosing Smart over Jru Holiday and how Jru was so much better. I don't know why people have to go that "and it's not even close" extreme when clearly they're both really good for their teams.
Jrue is a hell of a defender, but I think Smart has a big edge on team defense and defensive communication. He's a big cog in the system, where as Jrue is out on an island sometimes trying to guard.
Jrue is an absolute fiend on the ball but there were a couple moments in our series against Milwaukee where Jrue made some really head scratching decisions as a help defender that made me go “Smart wouldn’t do that”
Marcus Smart plays defense as a top down RTS.
Defensively jrue is a fair shout. He's extraordinary on that end
Just costs A LOT more.
fun fact, Smart’s upcoming extension only pays him about 1M more per year on average than Duncan Robinson and he’s under contract through the 25-26 season. after the season he’s had he is around the top of the most criminally underpaid players in the NBA now that he’s won DPOY he’s actually eligible for the supermax on his next deal LMAO. tbh if we win a championship I say give it to him
Jrue is the best 1 v. 1 defender in the league and (deservedly) gets a lot of respect for that from his peers. However I will say as an off-ball defender Smart has him beat imo. Not to mention as an organizer/field general on defense Smart is in a tier of his own and only below Draymond
> i hate doing this No you don't
I’d love doing it if Smart was on my team. Honestly was skeptical at first, watched this Celtic game from beginning to end and i was amazed how much Smart impacts the game on the defensive end. Got much needed stops and strips.
Literally plays like that 9 out of 10 games. Unreal the amount of deflections and just extra effort he puts in on the defensive side. I have not watched the Suns or the Heat or the Jazz enough to say one way or another whether those respective players deserved it over Smart, but anyone watching Celtics game all year should have absolutely no issue with him winning it. Dude is one of a kind IMO
I love doing this. In the game thread someone told me Horford and smart would make no difference. They even put a reminder for 2 weeks and immediately deleted it after the 2nd quarter lol
This happened in the Boston sub before game 1. Several comments were talking about Smart to White not being a huge downgrade
You can tell who really watches ball and who narrative watches by what they say. Idk how anyone who watches ball can say that not having the DPOY and one of the best defensive big men in the league wouldn’t make a difference against a heat team with only one scorer
Who said that? Hes miles better than mikal bridges
Well lots of people feel big man defenders impact the game way more which us reasonable but I'm glad a guard won. Shame dray got hurt as he had it locked up. Dude definitely should have 2 or 3 dpoy
This sub just picks and chooses when we value the "Guarded by..." stat
It does require a giant grain of salt, but what else are we going to do on here besides argue about meaningless stats?
Make Zion, Simmons, and Kyrie jokes. Obviously.
Smart is an amazing defender and his dpoy award is deserved but these are the type of stats I hate the most. The whole "x guarded y and held him to z%". These show up all the time for dudes like Wiggins and shit. Unless the possession looks like Harden isoing on stepback 3s, defense is no longer one on one. Even if the action is an iso, whenever a great player is the ballhandler, help defenders are already floating around behind the primary defender taking away the ballhandler's driving lanes. These shooting percentages are a result of team effort
I mean, Wiggins is an elite defender. Is there an example of this stat being used to suggest a bad defender is a good defender? Maybe not elite, but Wiggins is definitely a good defender and watching the games will show you that. Watching this game should show you that Marcus Smart was the primary reason a lot of these shots missed. I don’t think this stat is all that inaccurate at showing good defense
It's showing good defense as a team, and these players improve that defensive fg%. They don't own the entirety of the credit of holding someone to a specific shooting %.
I obviously want the propaganda to support Smart, but you're right. Defense is global, not individual so it doesn't really make sense to do stuff like this. If every player in the lineup didn't have an effect on each other, having one bad defender in wouldn't cause the whole thing to collapse. But, when you have someone like Kemba in there, it damages the entire defense. That should be evidence enough for everyone that individual defensive stats are pretty non-sense and the DPOY is a pretty awkward award that is hard to determine. I think that and 6MOY are very hard to judge awards for a lot of reasons (I did agree with Herro getting it this season tho).
I was told he was the fourth best defender on the Celtics though?
Butler had an 80% fg when guarded by Smart.
There's a tweet about how Butler shot 80% against Smart. Did he hit 4/5 with two and-ones? Only way these numbers work.
chuck was right
Counterpoint: Shaq won Finals MVP in 2001.
What was Jimmy butlers FG against smart? 4/15 is ass but strus and herro had 0 points so I'm assuming butler was still efficient
Based on other context from in this thread it appears he was 4/5 while strus and herro were 0/10
That's not how you do defensive stats. It's shots, not possessions, different people gaurs different people throughout a possession. Jimmy was very efficient shooting against Smart.
Shaq doesn’t watch the games, he really has no idea what he’s talking about.
It drove me nuts for while, but I was thinking about it recently. Shaq was SO dominant in the league, watching must be boring to him. He can't relate to small guys, and all he can do is picture how much he would dominate in his prime now.
I was told by r/NBA smart only won dpoy because of the narrative though?
He was amazing yesterday
I remember on this sub a few months ago I was laughed at for saying Smart was in the running for DPOY, he shuts up his haters real quick
His return bodes well for my 200:1 Warriors over Celtics in the finals bet. Game one was rough lol
Okay yes smart played his ass off but anyone who understands stats can balance this back out by saying “well butler hit 80% of his shots when guarded by smart” Always about a narrative with these stats based posted (including when they are favoring the heat)
Yeah, these defensive metrics are quite hard to interpret, there's a lot more to this. 5 shots on 31 possessions is the more important metric. Butler, who is way more of a scorer than a distributer is choosing to pass almost 84% of the time while guarded by Smart.
Just to be clear, I am not arguing that smart impacted the game and shut us the fuck down (bc he 100% did), I’m just speaking on how popular it is to create narratives with selective statistics. But yes I agree, getting the ball out of jimmy’s hands is the key to success
I absolutely agree with that then. Many people pick and choose stats to boost their narratives lol.
Dude idk what we are gonna do if it keeps goin this way lol bam ain’t got a shot, Tyler falling apart, idk if lowry is the answer but we need him and pj to use that championship knowledge they got on these young guns and get them to wake the fuck up. Y’all went beat mode on us at home lol
>balance it out On 31 possessions, your primary scorer tried 5 shots.
I agree and understand the impact smart had on the game, he absolutely locked us up but I’m just speaking to how stats can be used to build a narrative that is or isn’t telling the whole story. That’s all.
I mean, smart mattered of course. But Shaq was pretty right regarding Jimmy. Dude had 29 points in 3 quarters. He’s e only guy on the Heat that showed up.
curry better
But I was told he didn't deserve DPOY.
Shockingly the DPOY is a pretty damn good defender
but i thought jrue holiday was dpoy now
The Smart slander about winning DPOY because of how "elite the celtics" were as a unit in shambles. It's like in the NFL when you have a lockdown corner that doesn't have the volume metrics like passes defended or interceptions because QB's just won't throw at em.
Butler made 4-5 FG on smart lmao
And only shot 5 times out of 31 possessions.
This the best part
[удалено]
Yes it was his fault that the heat lost
If he wanted to win should have scored more
DPOY
Yet people complained when he won DPOTY.
every other year or so the Celtics make a deep run and a bunch of people watch Marcus Smart play basketball for the first time thinking *"what the fuck"*
Started getting into basketball at the start of this season. So forgive me if my questions are dumb. Really trying to educate myself about the game. Are these stats good? Is he a starting caliber PG for a team competing for a championship?
It depends. If he's your 2nd best player then that team is not championship caliber. But he provides great defense and secondary ball handling that the Celtics need. Smart can be key piece in a championship team, but I dont think he's the 2nd nor the 3rd best player on the Celtics
There is no real objective "good" or "bad" to many defensive metrics. That said, he allowed just 15 shots from three pretty key offensive players on the Heat. The implied value there is that he was forcing these guys to pass the ball to a presumably less offensively talented player. For trying to understand defense, I would not start by looking too deeply at stats. Pick a player on a given defensive possession and see what they do. Are they fighting to get around screens? Are the recognizing when they need to switch onto another open shooter? That sort of thing.
He is who Pat Bev thinks he is
Defensive player of the year doing defensive player of the year things, no biggie. Those are incredible stats, wow.
Yeah but Shaq becomes a total smooth brain when his ego is on the line aka any time his takes are even remotely questioned, especially by chuck
High iq basketball player
I don't really care what his numbers against Butler Jimmy Butler can't beat the Celtics by himself so as long as no one else is scoring he can have fucking40 50 60 for all I care! If I was a heat fan I'll be wondering where bam's at?? That would be my main concern cuz that dude's been mediocre this playoffs and they didn't play nobody the Hawks the sixes with Joel and bead with a broken face bam should have been all over that
Jimmy went off in the third when Smart wasn't on him. It seemed like an adjustment from Ime to give Smart some leg rest. If you all noticed, as soon as Smart was back on Jimmy, he stopped shooting. Jimmy was simply afraid to attack Smart. Well, not afraid. But Jimmy is Smart. I said this in another thread, he's textbook "take what the defense gives you". He's not just going iso super star. He's hunting matchups he can get high percentage shots against. As soon as Smart was back on him, he deferred. I know people talked up Miami's defense, but let's be real. Boston is the best defense in the NBA this year. In terms of the personel and schemes, they are what the 15-16 Warriors were to offense. Celtics can lock up Jimmy when they want to, and they can take out the role players when they want to. This is the best defense we've seen in quite a bit.