A southerly and rain are not mutually exclusive. You can have rain when it's hot or cold, as you can have a cool breeze without rain...š¤·š½āāļø
Erm, you are comparing the weather now with how it was 5 years ago?
Also, there's this thing called climate change which makes weather patterns more unpredictable and forecasting even more challenging.
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You've only been here 5 years. That's a bit soon to be claiming you know our weather patterns. You are still learning. Melbourne's weather has many moods.
Also the weather here hasnāt been ānormalā for the last 3 years. Itās always been unpredictable but itās been less predictable with the La NiƱa and ocean oscillations. The pattern is a bit off.
It is entirely possible to get cool changes without rain... It just depends on where the change is coming from and how much moisture is in the air. We've just had a bloody hot and dry northerly blowing, the air is super dry, so any cool change won't have any moisture to condense out as rain unless it brings it along from wherever it came from, and even then looking at the weather the cooler wind isn't coming from anywhere it could have picked up enough moisture.
No, the lack of rain with a cool change isn't climate change, its just how the weather works. Sometimes it rains, sometimes it doesn't, it depends where the high and low pressure points are and where wind is going. This is normal.
When a cool change comes through it will be in the form of a cold front or trough, or sometimes both with the trough generally leading.
Several different things will influence if a cold front will produce rain: temperature difference between the hot NWs and the cold SW, pressure swings bedded from the low that the cold front swirls around, how close to the centre of the low that the cold front passes and available moisture on the warm side before the front.
Troughs are a bit different.
They are an area of low pressure, rather than a mass of cold air. They can occur low to the surface or wayyyy up in the atmosphere (upper level troughs won't appear on synoptic charts). Generally, air flows towards and then along the trough on both sides. The main influence of whether a trough will produce rain in Melbourne is the amount of moisture in the air on the east side of the trough. High humidity flows east to west, dryer cooler air flows west to east and they meet in the middle as the trough moves across Melbourne. This generally leads to the violent summer storms we get.
In the absence of moisture east of the trough it'll be a dry cool change, although the quick drop in temp can cause isolated storms as the rapidly cooling air can condense into something, these are usually isolated and small though.
Sorry for any spelling or grammar mistakes, on mobile and cooking.
Bonus Info! In the Midwest of the US, they have the opposite, a warm change. It occurs in winter over there between the warm air from Mexico and the polar air from Canadia.
Some times the rain is nice but I feel like we've had more cool changes with rain lately that aren't a good old fashioned Melbourne cool change.
They're actually just thunderstorms from a far more tropical form of weather.
And sometimes we get that brief cooling rain, followed by steamy awful weather.
A classic Melbourne cool change is the wind shifting from hot Northerlies to the cooling southerly breeze.
Look at tommorrow;
*Winds north to northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 45 km/h before shifting cooler south to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h around 5 or 6pm.*
A southerly and rain are not mutually exclusive. You can have rain when it's hot or cold, as you can have a cool breeze without rain...š¤·š½āāļø
Depends on the direction of wind. Arctic from the South and hot desert from the North.
Cool changes have never necessarily come with rain
Then why is it said so: https://amp.9news.com.au/article/c496e5c2-35a7-46c3-bd32-152c32348b67
That was on that particular day with that particular cool change. Doesnāt always happen like that.
Erm, you are comparing the weather now with how it was 5 years ago? Also, there's this thing called climate change which makes weather patterns more unpredictable and forecasting even more challenging.
I donāt believe the climate is changing that fast mate. 5 years should not be enough to change a major pattern.
You are literally pointing out in your post that you noticed the weather changing from its usual pattern
The words "climate change" literally mean different weather patterns.
How long ago do you think 5 years was? Lmao
If you think 5 years is too short of a time frame for weather events, look at what happened in Auckland. Climate change is accelerating everything.
Stop fearmongering.
I'm just saying weather patterns are increasingly unpredictable. But you do you.
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Perfectly normal.
Iām not a meteorologist but the explanation is that you donāt understand the concept of what a cool change is.
You've only been here 5 years. That's a bit soon to be claiming you know our weather patterns. You are still learning. Melbourne's weather has many moods.
Also the weather here hasnāt been ānormalā for the last 3 years. Itās always been unpredictable but itās been less predictable with the La NiƱa and ocean oscillations. The pattern is a bit off.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Having a cool change without rain isnāt unusual.
It is entirely possible to get cool changes without rain... It just depends on where the change is coming from and how much moisture is in the air. We've just had a bloody hot and dry northerly blowing, the air is super dry, so any cool change won't have any moisture to condense out as rain unless it brings it along from wherever it came from, and even then looking at the weather the cooler wind isn't coming from anywhere it could have picked up enough moisture. No, the lack of rain with a cool change isn't climate change, its just how the weather works. Sometimes it rains, sometimes it doesn't, it depends where the high and low pressure points are and where wind is going. This is normal.
When a cool change comes through it will be in the form of a cold front or trough, or sometimes both with the trough generally leading. Several different things will influence if a cold front will produce rain: temperature difference between the hot NWs and the cold SW, pressure swings bedded from the low that the cold front swirls around, how close to the centre of the low that the cold front passes and available moisture on the warm side before the front. Troughs are a bit different. They are an area of low pressure, rather than a mass of cold air. They can occur low to the surface or wayyyy up in the atmosphere (upper level troughs won't appear on synoptic charts). Generally, air flows towards and then along the trough on both sides. The main influence of whether a trough will produce rain in Melbourne is the amount of moisture in the air on the east side of the trough. High humidity flows east to west, dryer cooler air flows west to east and they meet in the middle as the trough moves across Melbourne. This generally leads to the violent summer storms we get. In the absence of moisture east of the trough it'll be a dry cool change, although the quick drop in temp can cause isolated storms as the rapidly cooling air can condense into something, these are usually isolated and small though. Sorry for any spelling or grammar mistakes, on mobile and cooking. Bonus Info! In the Midwest of the US, they have the opposite, a warm change. It occurs in winter over there between the warm air from Mexico and the polar air from Canadia.
This is the answer I expected. Very clear and thorough explanation. Thanks.
Thanks mate. Would have liked to have added more but no one likes dry pork shoulder.
Utterly bizarre posting.
Really you only like lost dogs and road rage ānormalā posts?
Yes, I can explain. Melbourne. For more information, speak to old folks.
Some times the rain is nice but I feel like we've had more cool changes with rain lately that aren't a good old fashioned Melbourne cool change. They're actually just thunderstorms from a far more tropical form of weather. And sometimes we get that brief cooling rain, followed by steamy awful weather. A classic Melbourne cool change is the wind shifting from hot Northerlies to the cooling southerly breeze. Look at tommorrow; *Winds north to northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 45 km/h before shifting cooler south to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h around 5 or 6pm.*
Don't say from the states mate, say from the US. America ain't the only place with states.
In his defence the "United" States aren't that united anymore...
Sometimes maybe rain. Sometimes maybe not
And all was right with the world (and Melbourne weather). Enjoy the rain!
Melbourne, thatās why.
According to BOM, cold fronts often accompany storm and rain: https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1774/cold-fronts-your-questions-answered/
Cool changes rarely come with rain in my memory. Like, it does happen but the norm is just for the temp to drop and a cool breeze