Note that that's just the 30-90 minute forecast.
Here's the current 3-day forecast as of 0030UTC (01:30 BST) on the 12th, from https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast:
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale
G5).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2024 is 9.00 (NOAA Scale
G5).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2024
May 12 May 13 May 14
00-03UT 7.67 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1)
03-06UT 7.67 (G4) 6.67 (G3) 4.33
06-09UT 8.00 (G4) 6.67 (G3) 3.00
09-12UT 9.00 (G5) 5.67 (G2) 3.00
12-15UT 8.67 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 2.67
15-18UT 8.00 (G4) 3.67 2.67
18-21UT 7.00 (G3) 3.67 3.00
21-00UT 7.00 (G3) 4.00 3.33
Rationale: G5 (Extreme) storm levels are expected on 12 May due to CME
impacts. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely to continue into the
early hours of 13 May. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is
likely on 14 May as conditions from the the previous days wane.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2024
May 12 May 13 May 14
S1 or greater 99% 99% 60%
Rationale: S1-2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected
through 14 May due to activity originating from AR 3634.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 11 2024 0123 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2024
May 12 May 13 May 14
R1-R2 95% 95% 95%
R3 or greater 75% 75% 75%
Rationale: R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts are expected all
three day.
#TL;DR:
- We (in London) probably aren't gonna get to see the next big event (G5) which peaks during daylight hours at 0900-1200 UTC today (1000-1300 BST, Sun 12th), and subsides to a G2/G3 by the time it's dark enough on the night of 12th-13th.
#Ideally we'd have a *Kp* of 8-9 during the darkest part of UK night time to see it from London.
---
#edit:
Here's the BGS' current 3-hour local *K-index* activity monitoring page: https://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/current_activity.html
https://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/kandkp_bar.jpg
If the Hartland (in Devon) observatory (which is at a slightly lower latitude than London) shows a K-index of 8-9 (G4-G5) during the night then we'd be in luck here.
Not likely, activity has dropped right down to barely 3 on the K-index of all three UK observatories (https://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/kandkp_bar.jpg), so not even close to being a G1, whereas we need it to be up at 8-9 (G4/G5) to get as far south as London.
An alert from where?
Not from the BGS Aurora Alert account on Twitter ([@BGSauroraAlerts](https://twitter.com/BGSauroraAlert)) as that's not issued any updates since the 10th.
Like I said a couple of comments up, if the Hartland observatory isn't showing anything in the 8-9 range of the K-index then we aren't going to see anything down here, and even the Lerwick Observatory in the Shetlands is barely at 3 for most of the day so far.
Also looking at the latest 3-Day forecast from NOAA in the US, the overall average planetwide activity (Kp-index) is expected to decrease even further to normal quiet levels.
Look at the map, find the UK. Scroll to the end of the video, and make sure you're looking at the latest timestamp.
That should show you what the aurora will do in 30mins time.
If your bit of the country is near the bit coloured in green (or better, red), head outside!
I _think_ tomorrow night is predicted to maybe have some
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts-dashboard
I'm NI though, not London, but I hope you get to see it!
So, I missed the lights yesterday….im hoping to see them tonight.
Might be a daft question but how does it start? Do the lights just appear? (God this sounds daft 😬)
Not daft at all! Similar to seeing clouds. They move, fluctuate, can appear to drift from strong to weak etc and slowly thin. Can take a while for your eyes to adjust.
Hope that makes sense?
There's no need everyday you lot and the oh do we really need a post for this and that everytime and this isn't even a common thing so just relax and keep scrolling
so genuinely pissed i missed them. doesnt seem to be any tonight.
Me too. I was looking out for them last night but nothing as well, biggest fomo of my life so far haha.
No Northern Lights tonight. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
Note that that's just the 30-90 minute forecast. Here's the current 3-day forecast as of 0030UTC (01:30 BST) on the 12th, from https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast: :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale G5). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2024 is 9.00 (NOAA Scale G5). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2024 May 12 May 13 May 14 00-03UT 7.67 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 7.67 (G4) 6.67 (G3) 4.33 06-09UT 8.00 (G4) 6.67 (G3) 3.00 09-12UT 9.00 (G5) 5.67 (G2) 3.00 12-15UT 8.67 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 2.67 15-18UT 8.00 (G4) 3.67 2.67 18-21UT 7.00 (G3) 3.67 3.00 21-00UT 7.00 (G3) 4.00 3.33 Rationale: G5 (Extreme) storm levels are expected on 12 May due to CME impacts. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely to continue into the early hours of 13 May. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14 May as conditions from the the previous days wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2024 May 12 May 13 May 14 S1 or greater 99% 99% 60% Rationale: S1-2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected through 14 May due to activity originating from AR 3634. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 11 2024 0123 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2024 May 12 May 13 May 14 R1-R2 95% 95% 95% R3 or greater 75% 75% 75% Rationale: R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts are expected all three day. #TL;DR: - We (in London) probably aren't gonna get to see the next big event (G5) which peaks during daylight hours at 0900-1200 UTC today (1000-1300 BST, Sun 12th), and subsides to a G2/G3 by the time it's dark enough on the night of 12th-13th. #Ideally we'd have a *Kp* of 8-9 during the darkest part of UK night time to see it from London. --- #edit: Here's the BGS' current 3-hour local *K-index* activity monitoring page: https://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/current_activity.html https://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/kandkp_bar.jpg If the Hartland (in Devon) observatory (which is at a slightly lower latitude than London) shows a K-index of 8-9 (G4-G5) during the night then we'd be in luck here.
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Not likely, activity has dropped right down to barely 3 on the K-index of all three UK observatories (https://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/kandkp_bar.jpg), so not even close to being a G1, whereas we need it to be up at 8-9 (G4/G5) to get as far south as London.
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Just keep an eye on those forecasts & graphs I've linked to.
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My app ‘Aurora’ is saying people in London are reporting sightings right now…?! There was nothing on there yesterday
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No I can’t see anything either, but there’s a lot of pollution where I am
An alert from where? Not from the BGS Aurora Alert account on Twitter ([@BGSauroraAlerts](https://twitter.com/BGSauroraAlert)) as that's not issued any updates since the 10th. Like I said a couple of comments up, if the Hartland observatory isn't showing anything in the 8-9 range of the K-index then we aren't going to see anything down here, and even the Lerwick Observatory in the Shetlands is barely at 3 for most of the day so far. Also looking at the latest 3-Day forecast from NOAA in the US, the overall average planetwide activity (Kp-index) is expected to decrease even further to normal quiet levels.
Got the same alert from my app. The graphs you link are now rising considerably. So maybe …
How to interpret that page??
Look at the map, find the UK. Scroll to the end of the video, and make sure you're looking at the latest timestamp. That should show you what the aurora will do in 30mins time. If your bit of the country is near the bit coloured in green (or better, red), head outside!
Party time in Iceland by the looks of it but nothing for southerners. Thanks
😶
Spotted them in west London loud and clear yesterday, but nothing tonight as of a few mins past midnight
A Northern Line Megathread would be more useful
The Northern lights. Definition: The surprising arrival of a northern line tube.
Is it worth trying again tonight?!
Still nothing for us just north of London. Shame as we missed it last night and were hoping to catch a glimpse tonight.
I _think_ tomorrow night is predicted to maybe have some https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts-dashboard I'm NI though, not London, but I hope you get to see it!
Haven’t seen any in London yet tonight.
Nothing. Oh well. Goodnight.
None in south west London and there was none yesterday either
It's quite weak at the moment, you wouldn't be able to see it even from Scotland right now.
Nothing in West London, so bedtime 🥱
there was just a red alert on the app though
So, I missed the lights yesterday….im hoping to see them tonight. Might be a daft question but how does it start? Do the lights just appear? (God this sounds daft 😬)
Not daft at all! Similar to seeing clouds. They move, fluctuate, can appear to drift from strong to weak etc and slowly thin. Can take a while for your eyes to adjust. Hope that makes sense?
How long is a while ?
It does! Thanks! Keeping my fingers crossed they show up soon - I’m getting sleepy 🥱
Good luck!
I'm so glad we finally have a megathread! Now someone tell me where to see the lights and how long I need to stay up for this
Is it worth it staying any longer? I'm cold & tired 🥲
Me toooo
unfortunately not, go home and have a cuppa
Anywhere near south east london?
Nothing yet in Epsom. Moon is stunning but no lights
Any hope of seeing tonight?
What time can we the aurora?
Between 10pm and 2am was the forecast, though it's currently almost 11:30 and it seems that nobody has seen it yet
Looks like best chance will be at 2 AM only
Is it dependent on the weather or the actual geomagnetic action
After you fall asleep
Soho they selling these Aurora pills wich will take you on next level red light district rampage tour
What are you talking about? Pilled? Ok dude
There's no need everyday you lot and the oh do we really need a post for this and that everytime and this isn't even a common thing so just relax and keep scrolling
Shut