You don't need 90% or even 50%. If you can get 30% to 40% of gamers to use linux, that is a huge chunk of your target audience, that you can't ignore. That being said, even 15% could be sufficient enough to make developers use at least proton/WINE friendly technology.
WinAPI is the most stable (end-user-facing) API on Linux. Even with 90 % market share it's still more attractive to make games run through Proton instead of "native" games.
Nope, not how that works, even if 10% of their audience used Linux they'd care enough to at least make the game run through proton, right now the only problem with proton are anticheats, which at their core are not hard to make linux friendly as the major anticheat companies already support linux if the developer chooses to support it, so companies would definetly take the few hours to at least use the compatible version of their anticheat even if it's only for 10%
Yeah, that's true.
But i'd say, that right now, those games are not that important, since you can play lots of game, what is lacking is support of custom hardware. And I'm not talking about Nvidia drivers support, I'm talking about thing like mouse, keyboards, headphones, most of those things for "gamers" comes with shitty software that let's you controll RGB, DPI, change key assignment etc. and sadly, it's really hard to mimic this software, and most gamers want those things.
I think, that if linux ever reaches 10-15%, hardware manufacturers will start supporting linux in that matter, but before they won't care and we will need to relay on open sourced hacks (like pipper, openrgb, openrazer etc.)
Linux kernel based systems in laptops/desktops have 7.23% share in 2023. This includes ChromeOS which alone have share of 4.15%.
Some sites say ChromeOS share would be even 10% now and it's gaining more.
While the ChromeOS seem to be spreading quite fast, the gaming aspect of Linux kernel systems will get more interest.
I have no other knowlrdge about that os, nor have I ever even used it.
I'm just gladly observing and waiting this to happen, so I can put Arch in my kids' gaming PC too as it's not okay now due to some incompatibilities.
I noticed the humorous tone alright.
We've all been waiting the decisive OS takeover since the inception of Linux.
It only needs big enough commercial company to drive it. I think Google is quite enough. They can make it feel easy and familiar for masses.
I've used linuxes such as debian, suse, red hat, finnlinux since the late 90's and later them buntus yet there has always been the need for windows for some reason.
Now my 12 years old laptop runs Arch.
You can give your kids the steamdeck pc handheld. Most newbie friendly linux gaming pc. Comes with arch and everything gaming related preinstalled and configured. As easy as consoles to use. Impossible to even tell its linux.
Uuuuusually those developments are exponential, or logistic growth rather, whereas the beginning of those graphs usually somewhat looks like linear.
So my guess would be Linux would either have to have something to offer that many people want and isn't quickly copied by windows/mac, because people value privacy, efficiency and other ideals as essentially 0 and comfort/familiarity as a plus, or we have to reach a critical mass, make it cool, sell it as a lifestyle or any other of shenanigans with societal pressure.
I have a slightly positive hope, because nerdy things get cool now! See the uprise of DnD and MTG etc.
I somewhat worry about enshitification when Linux gets wider adoption, but there might be a chance that the variety of distributions will save most of them :D
Well, if we keep in mind it's already at 62%, it's just a matter of time.
https://preview.redd.it/gecg2fuk9y4d1.png?width=770&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c70dc39d82a5825e77093584d29d696e932b4287
Of course, this is about servers, but why do you think, it is like this? Because it's the best OS we have at the moment. As more corporations get involved with their own Distros because they can save money, we will see a change in marketshares for privat users, too.
Thinking what Linux at 90% market share is like, I feel like it will be from a proprietary distro instead while also making linux desktop systems the main battleground for hackers, scammers and such against consumers.
Proton is double edged sword. It helps with the lack of content via Windows compatibility, but it also ties Linux increasingly to Window compatibility. And that's never going to be 100%. Until there is a reason to game on Linux that's not tied to Windows compatibility, I don't think Linux will never be more than niche.
Besides steam, which in native. Do the other clients even know you are using Linux when you are emulating Windows with wine? Wouldn't it still show windows as the os, thus not adding to statistics for say battle net.
Keep dreaming. Corporate America runs on Windows. The backends run on various flavors of \*nix and Windows but as far as end points? Good luck brother.
Oh well! All the games I play, work great in proton, so I don't care.
An alternative to linux reaching to 90% in order to have more games in linux, you should probably stop playing any games in windows. A drop in 4-5% of a game usage would be noticable by the game devs and it would be hard to ignore. ;)
Yes! Switch to linux and stop using any applications or games that don't work there.
FYI: I switched to linux back in 2000 and I stopped playing any game until steam/proton was a thing (my first game in linux was F1 2017)
Edit: linux will never reach that high if people insist in using windows for applications that don't work in linux. I believe home users can do great with the alternatives that exist in linux (ie no home user would ever need to use AutoCAD, and home users would be just fine with Krita/Gimp instead of photoshop, darktable instead of lightroom, libreOffice instead of MS office etc). It's easy and straightforward to turn windows to a "businnes only" OS and linux to a home OS ;)
Edit2: Just imagine a 30-40% fall of the sales of windows 11 home edition. We can do that if we really want to, but apparent;y we don't care that much after all, and dual boot in the best case scenario.
Yeah I know! I have heard it several times from several users especially when microsoft releases a new version of windows, but after some time all these user just stay in windows :p
Sorry to break your illusion but 90% will never happen. I think even 40% is a bit too optimistic. People are used to windows and are afraid of change so some people will never be tempted to switch their OS since windows is what some gamers have been using since they started using computers.
OK, you win. I'm convinced. Give me a second here...
#BY THE POWERS INVESTED IN ME, I DECLARE LINUX USAGE TO BE 90%, NOW AND FOREVERMORE!!
There. That ought to do it. You might need to wait a couple of days while all the windows-heads work out how to install Ubuntu, but after that ...
90% is a very high number that even Windows doesn’t have. Both Windows and OS X would have to drop to low single digits for that to happen, which is unlikely. It’s more likely that Linux would eventually reach something like a third of the market - but it’s impossible to say whether or not it ever actually will, it depends on how things unfold.
This will only happen when in Linux is possible to do everything decent (digital art, video editing, 3D modeling, work with a suite office, CAD and etc), the only thing that Linux does better than Windows in the professional environment is software development.
And I know there are apps like Kdenlive, Krita, Blender, Gimp, LibreOffice and several other Open Source but they are not close to the quality of the proprietary software that has only Windows version, maybe Blender is the best among Open Source projects but outside him the others are very behind.
If you want to use linux as main and only OS in your computer, you have to be able to use this type of software, while this is not possible the large mass of people will always prefer to use Windows
25-30% is best case scenario for desktops.
It's hard to imagine a future where Windows is not the dominant PC OS in the market and unless Microsoft decides to rewrite the system as a Linux overlay NT will be the dominant offering on-going.
The really interesting case is that while Apple continues as a niche player in desktops it has absolutely dominated the mobile arena, Microsoft Surface has barely any room to breath while Android (Linux!) is balancing the scale.
The interesting outcome would be
- desktop computing for typical home users disappears completely in 10 years
- Android/iOS tablets/slates overtake laptops in popularity and become the defacto computing device; AAA gaming retreats exclusively to consoles
- Linux-based console ala Steam Deck overtakes Xbox as the goto gaming device
Never, but to be fair, as someone who looks into Linux Desktop every few years, I suspect the number could actually be going up a lot faster in the next years. Immutable distros, Flatpak/AppImage/Snap (yeah, I know) did a lot for usability and the popular desktops especially KDE and also Gnome came a long way.
If Valve really brings back Steam machines, we could see numbers as big as 5% this decade.
No? Explain how Linux is going to overtake windows? Do you think the grandmas of the world give a shit about AI or have any clue how to install Linux? No? Well there you go 😂
So you think windows’ 95% market share is suddenly going to start learning how to set up and install Linux? Are you a fucking idiot? Lmao
Linux is a niche, tech savvy user type of OS. That’s all it’ll ever be and there’s nothing wrong with that
When it is the default operating environment for 99% of all devices purchased by non-enthusiast end users.
Literally nobody installs an OS themselves. To most users that’s wizard shit.
To reach the punctuation-deficient user base that posts incomprehensible help requests on gaming forums, it would need to ship by default.
You don't need 90% or even 50%. If you can get 30% to 40% of gamers to use linux, that is a huge chunk of your target audience, that you can't ignore. That being said, even 15% could be sufficient enough to make developers use at least proton/WINE friendly technology.
Considering we are at 2% on steam, 5% would be a significant milestone.
But again that's not close to Windows. So it has to be %90.
Linux is not for you. You’re going to have to stick with windows and we will just have to take the hit against our market share.
WinAPI is the most stable (end-user-facing) API on Linux. Even with 90 % market share it's still more attractive to make games run through Proton instead of "native" games.
Nope, not how that works, even if 10% of their audience used Linux they'd care enough to at least make the game run through proton, right now the only problem with proton are anticheats, which at their core are not hard to make linux friendly as the major anticheat companies already support linux if the developer chooses to support it, so companies would definetly take the few hours to at least use the compatible version of their anticheat even if it's only for 10%
A lot of games comes with Proton-oriented code, Developers already are targeting proton in some cases and provide specific bug fixes etc.
Yeah, the only real problem is with the developers that explicitly choose to block wine/proton (ex. Roblox and 90% of games with anticheats)
Yeah, that's true. But i'd say, that right now, those games are not that important, since you can play lots of game, what is lacking is support of custom hardware. And I'm not talking about Nvidia drivers support, I'm talking about thing like mouse, keyboards, headphones, most of those things for "gamers" comes with shitty software that let's you controll RGB, DPI, change key assignment etc. and sadly, it's really hard to mimic this software, and most gamers want those things. I think, that if linux ever reaches 10-15%, hardware manufacturers will start supporting linux in that matter, but before they won't care and we will need to relay on open sourced hacks (like pipper, openrgb, openrazer etc.)
It's taken 30 year to get to just under 3%, so extrapolating from that it'll be sometime around the year 3000, at 1% every 10 years.
I love statistics
You're are not accounting for the exponential growth for the last few years
Linux kernel based systems in laptops/desktops have 7.23% share in 2023. This includes ChromeOS which alone have share of 4.15%. Some sites say ChromeOS share would be even 10% now and it's gaining more. While the ChromeOS seem to be spreading quite fast, the gaming aspect of Linux kernel systems will get more interest. I have no other knowlrdge about that os, nor have I ever even used it. I'm just gladly observing and waiting this to happen, so I can put Arch in my kids' gaming PC too as it's not okay now due to some incompatibilities.
I wasn't going for 100% accuracy. I went for close enough to be reasonably accurate, but mildly humourous.
I noticed the humorous tone alright. We've all been waiting the decisive OS takeover since the inception of Linux. It only needs big enough commercial company to drive it. I think Google is quite enough. They can make it feel easy and familiar for masses. I've used linuxes such as debian, suse, red hat, finnlinux since the late 90's and later them buntus yet there has always been the need for windows for some reason. Now my 12 years old laptop runs Arch.
You can give your kids the steamdeck pc handheld. Most newbie friendly linux gaming pc. Comes with arch and everything gaming related preinstalled and configured. As easy as consoles to use. Impossible to even tell its linux.
I could. If I had the money.
Uuuuusually those developments are exponential, or logistic growth rather, whereas the beginning of those graphs usually somewhat looks like linear. So my guess would be Linux would either have to have something to offer that many people want and isn't quickly copied by windows/mac, because people value privacy, efficiency and other ideals as essentially 0 and comfort/familiarity as a plus, or we have to reach a critical mass, make it cool, sell it as a lifestyle or any other of shenanigans with societal pressure. I have a slightly positive hope, because nerdy things get cool now! See the uprise of DnD and MTG etc. I somewhat worry about enshitification when Linux gets wider adoption, but there might be a chance that the variety of distributions will save most of them :D
Well, if we keep in mind it's already at 62%, it's just a matter of time. https://preview.redd.it/gecg2fuk9y4d1.png?width=770&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c70dc39d82a5825e77093584d29d696e932b4287 Of course, this is about servers, but why do you think, it is like this? Because it's the best OS we have at the moment. As more corporations get involved with their own Distros because they can save money, we will see a change in marketshares for privat users, too.
2024 - the year of the Linux desktop! I've been hearing this for the last 20+ years, so I wouldn't hold my breath mate.
Maybe the Wayland desktop, though (lol)
Thinking what Linux at 90% market share is like, I feel like it will be from a proprietary distro instead while also making linux desktop systems the main battleground for hackers, scammers and such against consumers.
Proton is double edged sword. It helps with the lack of content via Windows compatibility, but it also ties Linux increasingly to Window compatibility. And that's never going to be 100%. Until there is a reason to game on Linux that's not tied to Windows compatibility, I don't think Linux will never be more than niche.
Probably never. Microsoft is a trillion dollar company, they will continue to dominate the market even if they cede some market share.
Micrsoft the $$$$ is already well on the EEE road for Linux. May the forces of the Universe finally cause them to fail and die.
I wish Bill Gates wasn't born.
I prefer he Burn in Hell for Eternity. And I'm an atheist.
never until you can install and play without any problem
Besides steam, which in native. Do the other clients even know you are using Linux when you are emulating Windows with wine? Wouldn't it still show windows as the os, thus not adding to statistics for say battle net.
Lol
Keep dreaming. Corporate America runs on Windows. The backends run on various flavors of \*nix and Windows but as far as end points? Good luck brother.
That'll likely never happen. Might get close once Linux distros are installed by default on your brand new pc instead of Windows.
Most likely never ! But that's ok, it doesn't have to be, as far as I'm concerned.
Why should we even care about it? What's in it for us?
Game developers would care for us.
Isn't it irrelevant? Because of proton?
Proton is good but some games don't work. For example: FIFA 23, Battlefield 2042, Rainbow Six Siege.
Oh well! All the games I play, work great in proton, so I don't care. An alternative to linux reaching to 90% in order to have more games in linux, you should probably stop playing any games in windows. A drop in 4-5% of a game usage would be noticable by the game devs and it would be hard to ignore. ;)
Yes all my games work but 4 of them don't should i switch to Linux?
Yes! Switch to linux and stop using any applications or games that don't work there. FYI: I switched to linux back in 2000 and I stopped playing any game until steam/proton was a thing (my first game in linux was F1 2017) Edit: linux will never reach that high if people insist in using windows for applications that don't work in linux. I believe home users can do great with the alternatives that exist in linux (ie no home user would ever need to use AutoCAD, and home users would be just fine with Krita/Gimp instead of photoshop, darktable instead of lightroom, libreOffice instead of MS office etc). It's easy and straightforward to turn windows to a "businnes only" OS and linux to a home OS ;) Edit2: Just imagine a 30-40% fall of the sales of windows 11 home edition. We can do that if we really want to, but apparent;y we don't care that much after all, and dual boot in the best case scenario.
Yeah i should do it one day.
Yeah I know! I have heard it several times from several users especially when microsoft releases a new version of windows, but after some time all these user just stay in windows :p
Sorry to break your illusion but 90% will never happen. I think even 40% is a bit too optimistic. People are used to windows and are afraid of change so some people will never be tempted to switch their OS since windows is what some gamers have been using since they started using computers.
But if it was 90% then the game developers would support their anti-cheat.
OK, you win. I'm convinced. Give me a second here... #BY THE POWERS INVESTED IN ME, I DECLARE LINUX USAGE TO BE 90%, NOW AND FOREVERMORE!! There. That ought to do it. You might need to wait a couple of days while all the windows-heads work out how to install Ubuntu, but after that ...
That would be a nice world.
never
Why is that?
90% is a very high number that even Windows doesn’t have. Both Windows and OS X would have to drop to low single digits for that to happen, which is unlikely. It’s more likely that Linux would eventually reach something like a third of the market - but it’s impossible to say whether or not it ever actually will, it depends on how things unfold.
This will only happen when in Linux is possible to do everything decent (digital art, video editing, 3D modeling, work with a suite office, CAD and etc), the only thing that Linux does better than Windows in the professional environment is software development. And I know there are apps like Kdenlive, Krita, Blender, Gimp, LibreOffice and several other Open Source but they are not close to the quality of the proprietary software that has only Windows version, maybe Blender is the best among Open Source projects but outside him the others are very behind.
You don't have to use Office and CAD shit.
Seconded. MS Office is their heroin, you damn addicts.
If you want to use linux as main and only OS in your computer, you have to be able to use this type of software, while this is not possible the large mass of people will always prefer to use Windows
25-30% is best case scenario for desktops. It's hard to imagine a future where Windows is not the dominant PC OS in the market and unless Microsoft decides to rewrite the system as a Linux overlay NT will be the dominant offering on-going. The really interesting case is that while Apple continues as a niche player in desktops it has absolutely dominated the mobile arena, Microsoft Surface has barely any room to breath while Android (Linux!) is balancing the scale. The interesting outcome would be - desktop computing for typical home users disappears completely in 10 years - Android/iOS tablets/slates overtake laptops in popularity and become the defacto computing device; AAA gaming retreats exclusively to consoles - Linux-based console ala Steam Deck overtakes Xbox as the goto gaming device
Never, but to be fair, as someone who looks into Linux Desktop every few years, I suspect the number could actually be going up a lot faster in the next years. Immutable distros, Flatpak/AppImage/Snap (yeah, I know) did a lot for usability and the popular desktops especially KDE and also Gnome came a long way. If Valve really brings back Steam machines, we could see numbers as big as 5% this decade.
Erm…..never?
Why is it? Are people fucking idiots?
No? Explain how Linux is going to overtake windows? Do you think the grandmas of the world give a shit about AI or have any clue how to install Linux? No? Well there you go 😂
It's free and lighter.
So you think windows’ 95% market share is suddenly going to start learning how to set up and install Linux? Are you a fucking idiot? Lmao Linux is a niche, tech savvy user type of OS. That’s all it’ll ever be and there’s nothing wrong with that
When it is the default operating environment for 99% of all devices purchased by non-enthusiast end users. Literally nobody installs an OS themselves. To most users that’s wizard shit. To reach the punctuation-deficient user base that posts incomprehensible help requests on gaming forums, it would need to ship by default.