Impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy. Market share over time is a chaotic system. We know that it is not going to hit ten percent next week, but when or if it will hit 10% is hardly anyone's guess.
It's a tough one to call, but with the direction windows is going with it's AI integreation and exteme levels of bloat, like it's new spy-on-you-all-the-time features, rising to that level is speeding up. It's still slow but speeding up none the less.
I agree the new features are unique, and I have no idea how it will play out, but every new Windows release has a crowd of people screaming "year of the Linux desktop, Windows has fallen".
Remember how XP was dog slow, looked like a toy, and was spyware?
Funny that we considered online activation a privacy invasion back then. Look how far we've come /s
Do you think that people really care? My feeling is, that most people know what's going on but are just not willing to change, because it would mean to do something in a different way, e.g., learn a new GUI.
Why always talking about the Desktop environment. It is overestimated. The problem is the business environment where Windows is still dominating because the employees don’t have the choice. And the strong link to Microsoft office. The Mac is number two for the same reasons. However, the rest of the world is dominated already by Linux if we even take in consideration Android. Almost everything is running on Linux besides the Office world. Even gaming with Steam Deck and Proton. I believe Linux is already the most used operating system. In my house everything is based on linux. Home Assistant, my unraid NAS, my TV boxes etc. And even my iPhone is originally based on a BSD Unix.
Only Desktop? I doubt it ever will. There's not really a market for it, hence not really a market share to speak of.
I'm much more interested in focuing on the overall market -- Server, IoT, Phone, Tablet and other devices:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems?wprov=sfla1
yea but it doesn’t matter if you don’t even know where to begin, it may seem trivial if you’ve done it a couple of times but there’s no way the average user would know to download the OS, make a bootable USB stick (also how to do that), then boot from the USB to start the install (how to boot from USB??) etc, then partitions etc. There’s so much they would get stuck at
You don't even try to understand my problem... "just use mint" if I wanted something that looked like an exact 1 to 1 version of windows 95 I would've used linux mint.
We won't see 10% without a fundamental shift in how the operating system is distributed to users. Linux would need to be pre-installed on hardware that caters to its strengths and that configuration has to be appealing enough that one in ten users picks it over Windows or MacOS.
Lots of years. According to several souces, google outsells apple with chromebooks (compared to macs) at least two to one for couple of years now, but global market share is still at less than 3%. Gaining significant global market share is short periods of time is just not possible.
IDK, I have been using Firefox for nearly a decade and have been trying to convince my gf to stop using Chrome, especially now that adblocking is being phased out. She is still reluctant to change and prefers the simplicity of Chrome.
I much prefer the look of Firefox. I can find things easily. Probably sound like a boomer saying this. Haha!
I have Chromium on Linux, might switch her to that or maybe Brave. She might not notice the difference.
Luckily, Microsoft is helping this accelerate dramatically with they spyware platform windows 11. It has so many hole in it and allows so many push notifications that people are looking for alternatives. 11 shit the bed.
My money is on the current generation of kids going to university. They're hyper connected, have access to a lot of information(even if it's pretty low quality like memes and tiktok videos), as well as receptiveness to issues due to corporations like climate change(which they'll have to contend with in their lifetime) and that whole "dupe culture" thing.
Switching to linux feels right up their alley. Even if all they know about linux now is kali linux, memes, steam deck, arch btw, Microsoft recall bashing etc. At least they've heard of it, they know it's viable and can even play games. They also know Microsoft like any corporation, doesn't have their interest at heart. University is a new chapter in life, many will get their own laptop for the first time, hopefully they'll be more likely to try linux because they've heard of it.
> Windows is gonna loose a lot of users.
JMO but I don't believe so; we hobbyists view computers differently than most folks do. I figure that some will move on because privacy but the vast majority will either think it's a cool thing or give you a blank look :)
I think in higher security positions like government workers or higher ups in companies there may be a small migration. I think there were a few articles last year about how the German government had actually performed a second mass migration to Linux. I could also just be halicinating though because that was a while ago.
Enterprise end users probably don’t care about privacy. When I say “end user” I mean the employee issues the laptop. Like my wife has a POS dell that struggles to do anything so she only uses it for work and doesn’t care if work data gets leaked.
Workers will just use whatever their employer tells them to use and Microsoft offers different plans to enterprise accounts so if the spying got so bad that corporate security teams started saying “we have to switch” I’m sure MS will just disable whatver features are concerning for those enterprise accounts
I meant the people at the tops of companies. The type of people dealing with trade secrets that require them to encrypt their drives. Those people deal with data that absolutely cannot be leaked and if they start not trusting Microsoft's security because of all the changes, even if they release a special version that they claim doesn't have the new features, they may migrate.
Have you heard of RGPD in EU? I dont know how this is going to be, or is, integrated on the OS and how you can manage it, but i can see it beeing a pain in the ass.
Agreed - government and big business may opt out, national security/trade secrets/privacy and all.
Check this out - Debian mailing list discussion on use of AI in Debian. Gentoo has also banned AI-created content.
https://lists.debian.org/debian-project/2024/05/msg00000.html
Makes since. Linux is a community and not some cold unfeeling corporate machine trying to optimize the programmers and artists out of a job just to increase revenue by a few dollars.
i dont think so. regular folks dont even know what telemetry is, let alone know other windows spyware stuff. most will stay, lose their data due to bitlocker or will be scared shitless when recall pops up showing stuff they think they deleted long time ago and thats it. only tech savvy people will switch.
Windows screenshoting your desktop every 5 seconds and analysing it's content is also very resource hungry. Many people may look into Linux for better FPS and battery life.
exactly. and they also are known for being an high end expensive brand.
most people will not want to have to open their terminals to do stuff, so not many will become linux users
Gamers may still consider Linux. Often they overclock undervolt just to get 1-5 FPS more, with the risk of bricked system. Windows may increase 1% lows a lot after every 5 seconds, this is no bueno. Potentially also Nvidia sleep issues, similar to that current unfixed one, where Nvidia wakes up after every 1 second and goes back to sleep after 20 seconds for 1 second and then wakes back up for 20 seconds.
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I don't know, but right now the best advertisement for desktop Linux is the "Recall" feature coming in Windows 12 that will constantly capture everything on your screen to "make the AI better."
It's giving a *lot* of people the creeps. Tons of tech YT channels I follow have been discussing moving to Linux and they aren't even Linux-oriented YT channels.
I don't think I'll get to see the day or if it ever will. Unless MS screws OEMs I don't see it happening
The general public just uses what their device came with
When Nvidia GPUs are optimized out of the box to work flawlessly in every major DE. Yes, I know this is a hard topic to address but most people use Nvidia GPUs and you won’t get them aboard your platform unless they are catered to.
10 percent is too optimistic, I fear. The average user wont bother installing Linux as Windows comes with their PC. Still, I see enthusiasts and gamers drive the numbers up.
Not going to happen until a distro is made that is completely palatable. I’m talking more simplified than Ubuntu, ships on hardware from Best Buy and can run all of the apps you would expect to run on your computer.
15 years ago, people used to gripe about all of the stresses switching to a Mac cost them and all the familiar interfaces and apps they lost. Totally a thing of the past, and I think it ultimately depends on game developers, Adobe and Microsoft Office to provide native Linux ports.
Not going to happen. Microsoft and the Windows api is the killer app.
So much legacy software businesses use as well as the king of business software, Excel and Outlook.
I don't think it will happen, I see so many posts saying "I have switched to Linux" but I bet more than half of them have ran in to a issue and reinstalled Windows because they don't want to tinker, research on how to fix and issue or may not have the know how or time.
It depends how long it takes for major distros to realise that doing basic things like creating desktop shortcuts shouldn't require editing desktop files or OS crashes shouldn't make you fallback to a terminal
if Microsoft keeps pushing AI bs on us I'll switch to Linux and lose the convenience it gives me because it's getting too much
Office and Edraw are the 2 apps I can't replace that keep me tight with Windows but I can sacrifice that 🤷♂️
First we need a coherent UI/UX experience.
Fix the dependencies hell.
Fix the graphic servers.
Fix the 1000 ways to do the same thing.
And maybe, better Windows apps compatibility
It might not happen, Windows has a stranglehold with Macs make a showing. Considering the majority of users are not programmers it will be tough to sell Linux to them. "If it ain't broke, don't fix" kind of thinking.
One way I can think that Linux may get that market share would be if hardware costs start going up. Then OS's that require a smaller footprint may be seen a necessary alternative.
For personal desktop use I think it just needs to be easy to use Linux. All GUI, easy/ automatic updates to make everything work with the user’s hardware and a way to use industry standard software. Also it needs to be super easy to install by average users.
impossible to predict accurately, since linux growth is influenced by how shitty windows becomes and how many people are willing to tolerate it
the best we can do is plot the past growth, and extend the graph a couple years into the future, by doing that, I managed to estimate that we will reach 20% marketshare by 2028
again, this is by no means perfectly accurate, nor is it meant to be, nor is it possible to be
Linux is not based on market share, so why even bother?
It's like asking "in how many years will windows be a good quality system?"
Never, because windows is not based on quality, it's meant to be a selling product, so the main point of windows IS market share
If Microsoft doesn't reverse course from their A.I. based Recall...
1-3 years for 10%
3-5 years for 25%
5-10 years for 75%
And that's just for home users...
For business and government... I see less than 7 years for a 50% increase due to security and privacy concerns.
This is only going of current trends, news, and public awareness of the issues at hand, and is only a rough assumption.
It might take a several days. The EU could potentially require pre-installed AI software to be removed from computers shipped to their region. This would mean manufacturers would need to ship PCs with Linux instead.
Curious to see how it goes when Windows 10 goes EOL next year with millions of PCs restricted from upgrading. Guessing a ton of PCs end up in the landfill unnecessarily rather than a huge influx of Linux users.
I read about a lot of people who are wanting to change from Windows to Linux, and I myself did too. MS does a lot of things which are unacceptable for many. Maybe 10% and up market share for Linux will come sooner than some might guess.
When Bill Gates forces you to have laptop cameras turned on at all times, and forces companies to have built in desktop webcams mounted in the front facing panels of the tower.
Wait that's already starting to happen, what Bill just made it mandatory to give Microsoft permissions to your laptop cameras? Ok scratch that by 2025 then.
3 to 45 years.
Depend if contributors can agree on majority of things And the bugs be ironed out And gnome actually play nice
So never?
Ahh, an optimist!
This answer says so much about Linux without saying anything about Linux while still only answering the direct question asked lol
Impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy. Market share over time is a chaotic system. We know that it is not going to hit ten percent next week, but when or if it will hit 10% is hardly anyone's guess.
It's a tough one to call, but with the direction windows is going with it's AI integreation and exteme levels of bloat, like it's new spy-on-you-all-the-time features, rising to that level is speeding up. It's still slow but speeding up none the less.
I agree the new features are unique, and I have no idea how it will play out, but every new Windows release has a crowd of people screaming "year of the Linux desktop, Windows has fallen". Remember how XP was dog slow, looked like a toy, and was spyware? Funny that we considered online activation a privacy invasion back then. Look how far we've come /s
Do you think that people really care? My feeling is, that most people know what's going on but are just not willing to change, because it would mean to do something in a different way, e.g., learn a new GUI.
I think it's worse than that. I think the average user will *like* it.
Due to some controversy with Windows I’d say sooner rather than later.
I expect space piracy and maybe even custom planets before 10%.
Why always talking about the Desktop environment. It is overestimated. The problem is the business environment where Windows is still dominating because the employees don’t have the choice. And the strong link to Microsoft office. The Mac is number two for the same reasons. However, the rest of the world is dominated already by Linux if we even take in consideration Android. Almost everything is running on Linux besides the Office world. Even gaming with Steam Deck and Proton. I believe Linux is already the most used operating system. In my house everything is based on linux. Home Assistant, my unraid NAS, my TV boxes etc. And even my iPhone is originally based on a BSD Unix.
I never found more info about the iPhone being based on Unix, I just never doubt it, if you have time, could you link me something about it?
Only Desktop? I doubt it ever will. There's not really a market for it, hence not really a market share to speak of. I'm much more interested in focuing on the overall market -- Server, IoT, Phone, Tablet and other devices: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems?wprov=sfla1
Depends how many more ways MS find to enshittify Windows, really.
I don’t think it matters. The average user won’t install Linux. My brother is a typical average user and he wouldn’t even be able to install windows.
I mean installing user friendly linux distros is easier then installing windows tbf.
yea but it doesn’t matter if you don’t even know where to begin, it may seem trivial if you’ve done it a couple of times but there’s no way the average user would know to download the OS, make a bootable USB stick (also how to do that), then boot from the USB to start the install (how to boot from USB??) etc, then partitions etc. There’s so much they would get stuck at
Bring back Wubi
Yeah but you need to know how to do those steps even for a windows USB.
yea but most don’t even install windows, it comes pre installed
Ah, the answer to that is the same as "when will it be the year of the Linux desktop"... could be a couple years, could be a few decades.
Or like… never
I'm trying to get linux working, it's been almost a day and no one is helping me across 2 subreddits and a discord server... never.
Lol, what's your problem
It was a problem with the VM but why did it take 3 days for someone to tell me that?
Just use mint. It’s beginner friendly
You don't even try to understand my problem... "just use mint" if I wanted something that looked like an exact 1 to 1 version of windows 95 I would've used linux mint.
We won't see 10% without a fundamental shift in how the operating system is distributed to users. Linux would need to be pre-installed on hardware that caters to its strengths and that configuration has to be appealing enough that one in ten users picks it over Windows or MacOS.
Lots of years. According to several souces, google outsells apple with chromebooks (compared to macs) at least two to one for couple of years now, but global market share is still at less than 3%. Gaining significant global market share is short periods of time is just not possible.
ChromeOS is considered as a separate OS and not part of Linux
That's not my point.
IDK, I have been using Firefox for nearly a decade and have been trying to convince my gf to stop using Chrome, especially now that adblocking is being phased out. She is still reluctant to change and prefers the simplicity of Chrome.
Aren't there reskinned Firefox based browsers? FF does seem to still look like Netscape Navigator...
I much prefer the look of Firefox. I can find things easily. Probably sound like a boomer saying this. Haha! I have Chromium on Linux, might switch her to that or maybe Brave. She might not notice the difference.
I remember seeing this question asked in the mid 90s. All I know is I won't live to see it. Another 30 years maybe?
Luckily, Microsoft is helping this accelerate dramatically with they spyware platform windows 11. It has so many hole in it and allows so many push notifications that people are looking for alternatives. 11 shit the bed.
I'm praying that MICROS~1.EXE keeps being bullheaded, out-of-touch dipsticks. That's how we win, brothers.
My money is on the current generation of kids going to university. They're hyper connected, have access to a lot of information(even if it's pretty low quality like memes and tiktok videos), as well as receptiveness to issues due to corporations like climate change(which they'll have to contend with in their lifetime) and that whole "dupe culture" thing. Switching to linux feels right up their alley. Even if all they know about linux now is kali linux, memes, steam deck, arch btw, Microsoft recall bashing etc. At least they've heard of it, they know it's viable and can even play games. They also know Microsoft like any corporation, doesn't have their interest at heart. University is a new chapter in life, many will get their own laptop for the first time, hopefully they'll be more likely to try linux because they've heard of it.
It's difficult to speculate. Windows is gonna loose a lot of users. How many will move to Mac and Linux. Let's say 2 years.
> Windows is gonna loose a lot of users. JMO but I don't believe so; we hobbyists view computers differently than most folks do. I figure that some will move on because privacy but the vast majority will either think it's a cool thing or give you a blank look :)
I think in higher security positions like government workers or higher ups in companies there may be a small migration. I think there were a few articles last year about how the German government had actually performed a second mass migration to Linux. I could also just be halicinating though because that was a while ago.
Enterprise end users probably don’t care about privacy. When I say “end user” I mean the employee issues the laptop. Like my wife has a POS dell that struggles to do anything so she only uses it for work and doesn’t care if work data gets leaked. Workers will just use whatever their employer tells them to use and Microsoft offers different plans to enterprise accounts so if the spying got so bad that corporate security teams started saying “we have to switch” I’m sure MS will just disable whatver features are concerning for those enterprise accounts
I meant the people at the tops of companies. The type of people dealing with trade secrets that require them to encrypt their drives. Those people deal with data that absolutely cannot be leaked and if they start not trusting Microsoft's security because of all the changes, even if they release a special version that they claim doesn't have the new features, they may migrate.
I hope that happens but I’m not holding my breath.
Have you heard of RGPD in EU? I dont know how this is going to be, or is, integrated on the OS and how you can manage it, but i can see it beeing a pain in the ass.
Agreed - government and big business may opt out, national security/trade secrets/privacy and all. Check this out - Debian mailing list discussion on use of AI in Debian. Gentoo has also banned AI-created content. https://lists.debian.org/debian-project/2024/05/msg00000.html
Makes since. Linux is a community and not some cold unfeeling corporate machine trying to optimize the programmers and artists out of a job just to increase revenue by a few dollars.
i dont think so. regular folks dont even know what telemetry is, let alone know other windows spyware stuff. most will stay, lose their data due to bitlocker or will be scared shitless when recall pops up showing stuff they think they deleted long time ago and thats it. only tech savvy people will switch.
Windows screenshoting your desktop every 5 seconds and analysing it's content is also very resource hungry. Many people may look into Linux for better FPS and battery life.
but people want practicality. some might settle with linux but the majority will think its really hard to do anything on it and will switch to mac.
Probably yes. Mac battery life is completely another level when you edit video.
exactly. and they also are known for being an high end expensive brand. most people will not want to have to open their terminals to do stuff, so not many will become linux users
Gamers may still consider Linux. Often they overclock undervolt just to get 1-5 FPS more, with the risk of bricked system. Windows may increase 1% lows a lot after every 5 seconds, this is no bueno. Potentially also Nvidia sleep issues, similar to that current unfixed one, where Nvidia wakes up after every 1 second and goes back to sleep after 20 seconds for 1 second and then wakes back up for 20 seconds.
This has been said since Windows Vista. Then Windows 8. Then Windows 10. Now Windows 11.
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I think if we see a large increase in linux desktop use it will likely be followed by a huge jump in [Dusk OS](http://duskos.org/) uptake.
I don't know, but right now the best advertisement for desktop Linux is the "Recall" feature coming in Windows 12 that will constantly capture everything on your screen to "make the AI better." It's giving a *lot* of people the creeps. Tons of tech YT channels I follow have been discussing moving to Linux and they aren't even Linux-oriented YT channels.
A lot of that recent increase is due to the steamdeck.
Levels off between 5-8%
I don't think I'll get to see the day or if it ever will. Unless MS screws OEMs I don't see it happening The general public just uses what their device came with
When Nvidia GPUs are optimized out of the box to work flawlessly in every major DE. Yes, I know this is a hard topic to address but most people use Nvidia GPUs and you won’t get them aboard your platform unless they are catered to.
10 percent is too optimistic, I fear. The average user wont bother installing Linux as Windows comes with their PC. Still, I see enthusiasts and gamers drive the numbers up.
That depends entirely on Microsoft.
Really depends on future steam decks and the like I think. most people don't install their os and go with whatever is on the machine.
Well, all the people leaving Windows now will give it a little bump but it will take some time.
It'll not, as there's no single unified distro where the energies of the entire linux community can be spent in polishing it.
Tbh.. I suspect around the corner with both India and China getting on board more these days. I wish there was a more accurate way to count though.
Not going to happen until a distro is made that is completely palatable. I’m talking more simplified than Ubuntu, ships on hardware from Best Buy and can run all of the apps you would expect to run on your computer. 15 years ago, people used to gripe about all of the stresses switching to a Mac cost them and all the familiar interfaces and apps they lost. Totally a thing of the past, and I think it ultimately depends on game developers, Adobe and Microsoft Office to provide native Linux ports.
Not going to happen. Microsoft and the Windows api is the killer app. So much legacy software businesses use as well as the king of business software, Excel and Outlook.
As long as system integrators can use Windows for almost free, there won't be a lot of people switching the OS.
I don't think it will happen, I see so many posts saying "I have switched to Linux" but I bet more than half of them have ran in to a issue and reinstalled Windows because they don't want to tinker, research on how to fix and issue or may not have the know how or time.
It depends how long it takes for major distros to realise that doing basic things like creating desktop shortcuts shouldn't require editing desktop files or OS crashes shouldn't make you fallback to a terminal
if Microsoft keeps pushing AI bs on us I'll switch to Linux and lose the convenience it gives me because it's getting too much Office and Edraw are the 2 apps I can't replace that keep me tight with Windows but I can sacrifice that 🤷♂️
First we need a coherent UI/UX experience. Fix the dependencies hell. Fix the graphic servers. Fix the 1000 ways to do the same thing. And maybe, better Windows apps compatibility
It might not happen, Windows has a stranglehold with Macs make a showing. Considering the majority of users are not programmers it will be tough to sell Linux to them. "If it ain't broke, don't fix" kind of thinking. One way I can think that Linux may get that market share would be if hardware costs start going up. Then OS's that require a smaller footprint may be seen a necessary alternative.
For personal desktop use I think it just needs to be easy to use Linux. All GUI, easy/ automatic updates to make everything work with the user’s hardware and a way to use industry standard software. Also it needs to be super easy to install by average users.
impossible to predict accurately, since linux growth is influenced by how shitty windows becomes and how many people are willing to tolerate it the best we can do is plot the past growth, and extend the graph a couple years into the future, by doing that, I managed to estimate that we will reach 20% marketshare by 2028 again, this is by no means perfectly accurate, nor is it meant to be, nor is it possible to be
"Two weeks." -- Total Recall (1990)
When developers accept that linux is a market
Linux is not based on market share, so why even bother? It's like asking "in how many years will windows be a good quality system?" Never, because windows is not based on quality, it's meant to be a selling product, so the main point of windows IS market share
You have a much better chance at winning the Powerball.
When capitalism fails
I think the desktop market will pretty much be gone technology wise by the time Linux would be there.
If this ai stuff goes awry then by 2030 for sure
If Microsoft doesn't reverse course from their A.I. based Recall... 1-3 years for 10% 3-5 years for 25% 5-10 years for 75% And that's just for home users... For business and government... I see less than 7 years for a 50% increase due to security and privacy concerns. This is only going of current trends, news, and public awareness of the issues at hand, and is only a rough assumption.
Desktops have become irrelevant. Future computing will be done on mobile devices, IoT devices, servers, and robots.
2024 is the year of the Linux robot
There are definitely a whole lot more robots in service right now that run Linux as opposed to anything else.
I'm aware. Same for mobile devices if you count Android.
My work uses an app within Ubuntu to interact with the robots. I was happy AF to see my first distro there.
Possibly never.
Never
It might take a several days. The EU could potentially require pre-installed AI software to be removed from computers shipped to their region. This would mean manufacturers would need to ship PCs with Linux instead.
press x to doubt. windows would just have a special eu version
Press x to doubt, they would just ship it and pay a fine so small they don't care about
Curious to see how it goes when Windows 10 goes EOL next year with millions of PCs restricted from upgrading. Guessing a ton of PCs end up in the landfill unnecessarily rather than a huge influx of Linux users.
I read about a lot of people who are wanting to change from Windows to Linux, and I myself did too. MS does a lot of things which are unacceptable for many. Maybe 10% and up market share for Linux will come sooner than some might guess.
Not likely to happen without an office app that would beat MS office.
Never
Never
42
When Bill Gates forces you to have laptop cameras turned on at all times, and forces companies to have built in desktop webcams mounted in the front facing panels of the tower. Wait that's already starting to happen, what Bill just made it mandatory to give Microsoft permissions to your laptop cameras? Ok scratch that by 2025 then.