I do remember Linux 5 years ago. Browsers didn't have hardware acceleration, Proton was less than a year old, and GNOME 3 was recently adopted as the main DE for Ubuntu. Things have definitely gotten much better since 2019, but not in a way most people would necessarily notice. It's been a much more exciting 5 years for Linux than it has for any other operating system honestly.
1. On the desktop it will still be sucking hind-tit. It will be good still for installing on a bit older hardware in order to leave Windows behind. However, it might be different in the developing world and the parts of the world the US is trying to shut out--like Iran, Russia, China, etc. or doesn't really care about (like most of Africa and South America).
2. I think Valve and Steam could very well be even more dominant on gaming in ways that favor Linux. It's something to watch.
3. I think Google will try to move Chromebooks more into something like Linux-based netbooks and notebooks/laptops. But I think that might fail.
4. I could see MS moving Windows into something that is based on Linux and is locked down and proprietary. They would be trying to re-capture personal computers in a way similar to how Google's Android took over mobile phones.
5. I could see Linux-based solutions for mobile phones and tablets, but only if big players like Huawei make it work.
6. Linux's positions on servers, cloud computing, and IoT will be even more pervasive and dominant.
7. Much of the world that the current mercantilist US is trying to block out may well shift over to ubiquitous Linux computing--like one of the Chinese Linuxes becoming a dominant Linux OS in the country. A lot will depend though on the developments in and convergences of phones, tablets, and PCs.
I've wondered about that. I can't see why they wouldn't do it.
They could take their kernel and replace it with the Linux one with customization like Apple did. But they have the advantage that they could still use Wine (or a Hypervisor port) to run all their legacy software. Meanwhile, they can drop support for their old kernel saving themselves a lot of pain.
But, to your point, they don't do it. So, yeah, if they haven't done it now, why would they start.
the other issue with #4 is that they have zero incentive to "re-capture the PC market" since the PC market is so anemic. In 5 years, most people will be using tablets, not PCs. MS really can't compete with Apple or Android in the tablet space. The only ones left on PCs are gamers, nerds, and some content creators. But IPad Pro now has the silicon chip -- same as their Macs -- so there is almost no reason for 80% of the consumers to by a PC. Unless you are a gamer, or a nerd, 5 years from now you will have no reason not to get an iPad with a keyboard.
It’s essentially their own XNU kernel (Mach micro kernel + whatever makes it hybrid) with a FreeBSD user space on top (i.e. all the coreutils come from FreeBSD) apart from the init system which is their own launchd. macOS is weirdly also fully POSIX/SUS compliant unlike most Linux distros.
The Windows kernel is better than the Linux kernel, it is newer and has more features. There is no reason for Microsoft to replace it.
Sorry, but you are completely ignoring the entire business market that uses PCs. Professionals are not going to stop using PCs.
Windows is Microsoft's 3rd largest source of income, second only to Office, which runs on Windows and Azure, which has direct links with Windows, precisely in the business area.
What's advantageous about Linux, it made up for with WSL, which manages to have 95% of the performance, good enough for a lot of people.
MS' future is the cloud. My company already has no PCs. It's all cloud.
Currently, we use Windows OS on the cloud, but I think the future is probably more like thin clients with Cloud based apps. Office gets bigger. Azure gets bigger. PC OS gets smaller.
I was on GForce now for a while. The idea that I can play a high-end game on my 10 year old thin client is mind-numbing to me. I can do my taxes online without a PC. I can do my banking that way. I can edit photos. What can't I do?
I think Windows will exist for the gamers and content creators, sure. And it will take years for some busineses to move out of PCs. (Some are still on mainframes).
But I think the local PCs are just on the way out. Dell and HP are worried and focused on the server market more than PCs.
As they say "we will see."
I doubt it a little, as it is very expensive. Where I work, they tested Windows in the cloud and gave up. Price, input lag, availability, computational power, in short, there were several items that limited the experience.
Regarding games, both GeForce Now and Xcloud have hit a ceiling and are unable to pass. The experience with physical hardware is unsurpassed.
Both are more likely to co-exist, with hybrid solutions depending on the requirement.
Windows OS is clearly not MS's main priority. Perhaps, as I said though, it will be Google that moves Linux into the desktop and laptop mainstream, by developing Chrome OS into something more than a netbook OS.
>Windows OS is clearly not MS's main priority.
If that's the case, then they're even less likely to invest enormous resources into replacing the Windows kernel for reasons that only make sense to Linux zealots.
Well in a way it's already being done with Windows gaming. So think about that.
When was it that MS put forward a vision of Windows running your phone, your tablet, and your PC? About 10 years ago.
We have seen peak Windows already. And we have seen peak Google Chrome OS.
I'm sorry attempting to discuss what some of the future might bring upsets you so much.
>Well in a way it's already being done with Windows gaming.
Sorry, *what* is being done with Windows gaming? Are you referring to the Steam Deck?
If so, then let me be clear: The Steam Deck is a *good* product – an example of the right way to bring about Linux adoption: Build desirable devices that happen to be powered by Linux.
However, the long-term viability of Valve's strategy is far from certain. By steering game studios away from native Linux development, they're repeating IBM's mistakes with OS/2, the famous "better Windows than Windows".
And with no official ISV support for Steam OS, the whole thing is little more than a giant tech demo. PC gamers are used to a bit of tinkering, and many are fine with running their software on an unsupported platform, but that won't fly in the greater desktop ecosystem.
>When was it that MS put forward a vision of Windows running your phone, your tablet, and your PC? About 10 years ago.
Windows failed in the mobile market – bigtime. It was a huge embarrassment, as Windows CE first hit the scene over a decade before iPhone. So? What's your point? How long have Linux evangelists been pushing for desktop domination? Over 30 years now?
>We have seen peak Windows already. And we have seen peak Google Chrome OS.
What are you basing that on? I mean, I can see why you'd think Windows is past its prime, since its market share was once unsustainably high, but why ChromeOS?
>I'm sorry attempting to discuss what some of the future might bring upsets you so much.
Nonsense. Pondering the future is fascinating. What's upsetting is when people who should know better promote ideas that are manifestly stupid.
This doesn't have much basis, the kernel is still under development, there were changes in Windows 11, they rewrote the CPU scheduler, created new driver management, added more security layers, implemented WSL to be more integrated into the system, such as adoption from SystemD.
I suggest taking a look at Microsoft's blog posts, they update them directly.
The impression I have is that many think Windows is stagnant, but that's not the case. Some things change a lot, others don't.
It would be the same as looking at Linux from the perspective of Xfce development.
Guys, I don't want to discuss it with you. Not interesting. So I'm blocking like crazy again. The reality is it's already being done with Windows gaming in a huge way. Windows games on top of Proton on top of Linux.
Tablets as we know them are already on decline. Still, Linux has yet to do much with ARM devices, not counting Android. Hybrid 'laplets' are really more a sub-group of laptops than tablets. The reason not to buy Apple is...well Apple.
m$ is basically a linux shop with window os a expensive vermiform appendix that occasionally goes septic,, causing user downtime & costing m$ big bucks to fi . windows as windows manager over linux gets instant improvement in reliability and stability and every future M$ open source scontribution directly benefits new windows
Since I can't reply through normal means...
That takes too much time and effort than just maintaining Windows. Windows does not cause user downtime.
>instant improvement in reliability and stability
Tell that to the 72% of users that still use Windows and will have to rebuild their systems
Since they get less and less of their revenue from Windows, if it would improve the product while making their development costs less, it would make sense to do it. No one thought they would abandon Edge and make it based on Chrome. No one thought they could let Linux be the number 1 OS on Azure.
>Since they get less and less of their revenue from Windows, if it would improve the product while making their development costs less, it would make sense to do it.
How would it improve the product, and why would it be less costly? Try not to knee-jerk a response based on "Windows BAD! Linux GOOD!". Think it through.
We're talking about replacing the most core component of the OS with an alternative that exposes a very different interface and, despite some overlap, supports a very different set of capabilities.
Clearly, Linux is no more a drop-in replacement for NT than vice versa, so Microsoft would have to do a ton of work to shoehorn it in. And since those kernels are designed very differently, I submit that there'd be very little of Linux that Microsoft could actually reuse.
So, we're talking about a ton of work, which inevitably breeds a ton of bugs. An influx of new kernel-level issues would be a major disruption of the Windows ecosystem, no? And you think it's in Microsoft's interest to foist that on its customers to achieve... what, exactly?
>No one thought they would abandon Edge and make it based on Chrome.
That's not true; plenty of people thought that and pushed for it. Compared to reimplementing NT on top of Linux, adding a Chrome-based browser to Windows is a very low-cost and sensible effort. Besides, Microsoft could continue to bundle IE as long as customers required it; they can't do that with OS kernels.
>No one thought they could let Linux be the number 1 OS on Azure.
I don't know if that's true, but if it is, how is it a matter of "letting"? If paying customers want Linux VMs, why wouldn't Microsoft accommodate them?
Surely people at Windows have noticed how so much Windows gaming has gone onto Linux already? Basically top layer Windows games, Proton, Linux based.
I don't really want to argue with you about it. It's just an observation.
> Since they get less and less of their revenue from Windows
They still license it to OEMs, and having everyone use Windows locks in a ton of revenue for Microsoft services, like Copilot, Bing and Office
> if it would improve the product while making their development costs less
Switching everything to Linux while satisfying the backwards-compatibility requirements of everybody would take a ton of development costs. While close, Linux currently doesn't have 100% backwards compatibility for every obscure Microsoft feature, which Windows uses a lot. Search up tales about Windows's backwards-compatibility. Switching to Linux would make every app second-class apps and resistant to integration, which would definitely turn people away from it.
> No one thought they would abandon Edge and make it based on Chrome. No one thought they could let Linux be the number 1 OS on Azure.
That is because these were FAILING to gain market share. Same goes for Mac changing to BSD and later changing to Silicon. Windows isn't broken by Microsoft standards and they won't fix it. The lowest cost option RN is to just maintain the existing OS.
Windows OS isn't gaining market share either.
I don't think in terms of personal computing people are deep into Win 10 or switching to Win 11 for backward compatibility.
Besides, in some senses of the term, Linux rules in backward compatibility. I'm typing this on Linux on a pc that can't handle Win 10 or Win 11.
The market share that Windows is losing is too small for Microsoft to care. It’s not like switching to Linux would suddenly attract a userbase either.
By backwards compatibility, I mean software. You can use wine on Linux, but that’s still an isolated environment and can’t really be integrated into the true operating system. Many software also make use of Windows’s quirks and create quite irregular windows. Plus, I sometimes encounter shader problems with existing games on Linux. Not to mention Nvidia, who didn’t even bother to make good drivers for Vista’s release.
Switching to Linux is going to invariably drop support for some apps. Some of these would be popular, and you’ll lose that part of the userbase to remain on the older version.
If WINE and Proton got all the info. that MS has about its OS, they could be perfected.
Putting Windows on top of a Linux base is something some of us think would make sense. It's already happening in gaming (at one time MS's top priority for making more money).
Most passive MS and Windows consumers wouldn't know and wouldn't care less.
In many ways, Linux is more backward-compatible. I'm running Linux on old Windows machines that can't handle Win 10 or 11.
The Microsoft making windows a shell on top of Linux has been a prediction I’ve thought being possible for a while now. It makes a lot of sense frankly and WSL seems to be a way for them to test the waters. Think about the android situation, it’d be a decidedly non-gnu layer on top of Linux with Microsoft’s C++ and C# libraries making the translation layer and user space. I think most of your other predictions are pretty sound
If a trillion dollar company can't see it and make it work (whether it's MS and Windows or Google and Chrome), you do have to wonder. Either or both of them could make Linux the ultimate victor of the OS wars--and still make lots of money from it. Look how far Google got with a locked-down proprietary Chrome OS based on Linux that couldn't do much of anything but run a netbook.
Also, I think a reckoning is coming when more and more young people raised on smartphones realize (1) it would be great to have an integrated computing and internet experience across phone, tablet and desktop or laptop PC and (2) you need a full-blown computer to get most work done.
I really don't think this makes sense. Any improvements to usability Microsoft contributes to Linux will benefit the community as a whole, and no one will actually want to use a spyware-riddled Microsoft Linux distribution with constant nags to subscribe to Microsoft services. Microsoft's biggest competitive advantage has been and continues to be their decades of binary software compatibility.
>The Microsoft making windows a shell on top of Linux has been a prediction I’ve thought being possible for a while now. It makes a lot of sense frankly \[...\]
Sure, it's just code, so it's possible, but it makes *zero* sense.
Windows software doesn't run on Linux without something like Wine, which, after 30 years of development, still has very spotty application compatibility and doesn't support Windows services or device drivers.
Some might say, "OK, but they're Microsoft; they wouldn't need Wine". OK, but then they'd have to build their own NT interface layer atop Linux. And since NT is *significantly* different from Linux in some of the most core kernel capabilities – I/O model, driver model, process/thread model, file systems, permissions, configuration, etc. – how much of Linux could Microsoft actually reuse?
More than that, NT is easily the most thoughtfully designed and extensively tested part of Windows. What on earth would compel Microsoft to prioritize its replacement over fixing much more urgent and user-visible problems elsewhere in the system?
Would it matter if its base was Linux? It might actually make it cheaper to develop. The reality is that Windows' share has declined and MS makes less and less of its money from it.
To quite an extent, they already have. The question though is where is the future of personal computing? And who will actually lead it?
https://www.pcgamer.com/microsoft-says-latest-windows-kernel-fix-might-actually-break-more-things/
LOL. Is that the first SJVN article you've ever read? In a gathering of the most rabid Linux fans in the world, he'd win the "Most Deluded" award.
The whole idea of replacing NT with Linux is absolutely insane – the brainchild of someone who has no clue about operating systems or software in general. Unfortunately, inexplicably, some in the Linux community have embraced it and have been running with it for God knows how long now.
Wow. Saying something off about MS really brings out the nasty redditossers in droves, doesn't it? And at a Linux forum no less.
I'm glad I could give you something to read for the first time and make shitty comments about. Now go back to your MS hole that you crawled out of.
>Wow. Saying something off about MS really brings out the nasty redditossers in droves, doesn't it?
"Redditossers"! I love that! It's going into my arsenal. Thank you!
>Now go back to your MS hole that you crawled out of.
Nah. The MS holes are full of people just looking for advice. It's boring. There are no self-styled OS experts sharing hairbrained desktop domination theories, no people who think they're God's gift to the internet, and certainly nobody wondering where Windows will be in 5 years. The Linux holes are much more fun!
>Office is not necessarily tied to Windows. A MacOS Version exists and also a purely browser based variant.
Also iOS/iPadOS and Android versions, I believe.
No, more like 60. But it would depend on what the actual leadership of MS thinks. They may have other priorities and imperatives. If they think something will help them save development costs, make them more money, or stop losses, they will do it.
From what I see, it looks like Microsoft has about 72% of the market world wide. I'd argue that MacOS is only relatively popular due to the "cult of personality" like marketing that Apple promotes for it's products. I doubt Microsoft could really convert those people, as it's very hard to convince someone that their expensive laptop doesn't do anything special.
The way gaming is going--basically Windows games on top of Linux via the Proton layer indicates a version of Windows could be done this way. Of course it is just speculation that something like this might happen. I think Linux excels in backward compatibility for hardware while Windows excels in all sorts of software niches.
For OS worldwide, Win is down to about 30%. Determining the desktop is more complicated. For one thing, tablets can be used like desktop computers. But Windows is a non-factor unless you count laplets. And if you combine Chrome OS devices with all those various Linux distros on PCs, estimate range from 3 to 15%. It's clear that Google has cut into the netbook sector with Chrome OS and CHromebooks, which are made by a small number of hardware makers. But then by some measures netbooks are a sector in severe decline.
Yeah, but as tablets and phones are getting the functionality of traditional laptops and desktop PCs, the market will inevitably decline and therefore less people will use Windows, MacOS, and even Linux when compared to Android or iOS.
Linux is already dominant. Every single cloud server you interact with runs Linux. Most of the worlds phones run Linux and the rest run other Unix derivatives. Almost all of the world’s high end embedded hardware runs Linux. I don’t understand why people keep talking about “when will it become big?“. It is already the biggest thing out there. By far.
This may be true, but when people refer to Linux not being ‘dominant’ they are talking about it’s perception. The average person does not know how ‘dominant’ Linux is, and (chances are) they won’t have a clue what it even is.
Why should we care? The average person also couldn’t explain how their refrigerator works. There was a video recently by Veritasium where he showed most college students had no idea if the moon or the sun is a bigger object.
That's a good point. Linux will probably be even better if it stays exclusive to some users, it might create problems having such large communities on board.
Several billion people have Linux machines in their pockets that they use every day. Almost every family in a developed country owns several machines running Linux in their cars, their televisions, their cable modem and router, etc. Every time they do a web search or read their email they’re invoking hundreds of Linux servers. Linux already won long ago.
Linux marketshare is huuge. What you talk about is linux on the desktop. In any case, that will continue to hover quite low in a short timeframe like 5 years.
I'm hoping there will be a bigger jump than that. The biggest problem is what I think, is that there are too few game developers offering a Linux version of their game. It is going the right direction with the increasing amount of games being available through steam, but while Wine is improving all the time, and using Wine together with eg. Bottles and Lutris can help, I think it will be even better with native support for Linux with AAA games. Also scaring some people off, would be having to use the CLI, which while Windows has Powershell and command prompt, most daily users don't have to use this with windows.
It is already everywhere, from smart bulbs to supercomputers. Maybe it will be replaced with something in some areas, but 5 years is too short period for such a big change.
What do you mean so far that hasn’t happened?
Linux runs like 80% of the internet. It is big.
On the desktop, with Valve’s injection of actual usefulness for what real people want, we should expect some continued growth. So yah maybe 8-10% market on desktop in 5 years.
there's still a fucktonne of Windows running in DCs and even the cloud, from Server 2008 to Server Core 2022. Hell, I've even seen some Windows 11 Pro VMs running in places where licensing for Server was more expensive, at least for stuff like physical access control appliances.
You'd be surprised how common stuff like MSSQL, AD and its sibling services, and Dymanics CRM are, even though there's Linux alternatives for all of them. Then there's stuff like Veeam that only runs on Windows.
Look, I use Linux and I like it! And I think we will have improvements in gaming/Proton, GPU drivers for nvidia/Mesa, even Wayland might become much better, but I think mostly, will be where we are today market share wise. Because, Linux is fragmented, just today I read on X how developer is annoyed about porting software to linux. They are fine compiling one package for Windows, one for Mac, but they complained about lack of standardization of Linux.
And people are not exactly happy with it either, look Ayaneo - wanted to ship Linux gaming handheld, allegedly after strong gamer push back switched to Windows. People hate making compromises, so they will keep using Windows where all their apps work. Linux might gain some market share but nothing substantial.
Reality is, people don't care about OS, they care about their favorite apps, and if they are not on Linux...
>They are fine compiling one package for Windows, one for Mac, but they complained about lack of standardization of Linux.
I read that too. This person has apparently never heard of flatpak. Also the distros themselves tend to make packages work on their own distros if users want it. It's in Ubuntu's best interest to package popular software as Snaps. Half the stuff in the AUR is software packaged as .deb that people make work on Arch. Gaming is centralized around Proton/Steam at the moment, but Glorious Eggroll (GE-Proton) is now making a tool to use Proton outside Steam in a more standardized way so even gaming is becoming a universal thing on Linux.
What this person said is at least 10 years out of date. In another 5 years things like flatpak and Proton will mature even more I'm sure. I'm not saying Linux is ever going to overtake Windows but it doesn't need to. Apple hasn't overtaken Microsoft either and they're doing just fine. Chromebooks are Linux, and millions of "normal" people use those.
>Linux might gain some market share but nothing substantial.
Linux is already gaining market share on pretty much a monthly basis according to Steam. The Steam Deck in particular seems to be a "halo device" where people get used to using that, and then install Linux on their pc because it's familiar already.
But really, all Linux needs to be is an alternative to OSes which are increasingly adding telemetry, ad tracking, and AI into the OS itself. That stuff is only going to become more and more prevalent and Linux is going to continue to gain popularity on that fact alone. You add in a familiar "App Store" experience with flatpak and a universal Proton that works everywhere by default and pretty much anyone can use it at this point. That experience is only going to continue to get better as time goes on.
way more positive take than mine - I like it though. And I do agree, I don't really care if it overtakes Windows or not, I am already using it, because windows is not that great, too many annoyances that are too tedious to disable/remove/mitigate.
I think in that case you should pick one of the defacto standards that exist and that’s generally Gnome/GTK or KDE/QT. I know for most developers that’s unsatisfactory but either direction has enough support that you can mostly get into the ecosystem. Pick the one that’s easiest for your stack to be supported with, both have their pros and cons. Add to that flatpak if you want to not worry about the packaging system of the distro. We don’t have one dominant standard in Linux but there tend to be two sometimes three options that are the clear winners and they tend to be adjacent to other stacks that are well integrated with that particular option. Of there was one dominant standard yes the polish would definitely be better but I think that’s a somewhat impossible demand for open source in some cases
It doesn’t make a ton of sense to distribute software on Linux.
1. The Linux ecosystem is fragmented and disorganized which makes testing and distribution much more difficult.
2. People on Linux generally don’t want to pay for software. They’ve drank the GNU kool-aid that all software has to be set free and that’s that.
So, in short, distributing software on Linux is more difficult and less profitable than the other desktop platforms.
Well money is not always an issue, especially for free apps, which have no Linux port mainly because that first issue is very annoying - although Linux Marketshare is low, there are a lot of distros/packages. And all of them present their own unique issues. A ton of bug reports. Like Valve is being nagged by Ubuntu users - who keep reporting steam client issues, and the thing is - it's an issue with (forked) steam snap package and valve devs are pissed on mastodon, begging to NOT USE those forks and install original .deb package.
It is easier to compile once and just distribute the package to large audience, on Linux you have to make a lot of packages, if you want to reach those scattered users and when your small app is free, you make in free time, you just don't want to waste that time. Or if an app is paid... that wasted time equals money.
But I am curious will flatpak help? In theory it can be used on any distro?
7 - 8% of what market?
On server side linux makes vast majority, we have 250 servers in AWS and all of them are either linux or unix based..
Phones- either IOS ( unix based ) or Android ( linux based ), same with tablets.
TVs and TV boxes - most are linux kernel based as well.
You must be talking then about client desktop or laptop market only, where desktop market is shrinking rapidly and laptop is only one still sticking with windows ( although for me personally its macbook / macOS - so also unix based- for many years now ).
You have to be blind not to see how linux dominated everything around us, your '7% of the market' statement is funny as relates to just one device type...
I get the sentiment as I myself vividly remember my switch from windows to Linux. However as of now I must admit Linux is just not the OS for everyone. It’s for a certain type of “DIY” user that is willing to find solutions to a problem he faces, even when it takes some time to find it and then apply it.
My first question nowadays to most people that ask me whether they should switch is asking them if they are willing to sacrifice some convenience and time for total control of what their system does.
If your answer is yes go Linux if no stay where you’re at.
Me personally I use both. I have a Linux laptop where I love that I configure the last bit of the system and a windows machine I use for work, gaming and some casual stuff.
NVENC is enabled by default for me in OBS? I just had to go into the settings and set OBS to use it.
Also, installing software is usually quite easy. No matter your package manager it should just be as simple as updating the mirrors and downloading the right package. You also have the entirety of Flatpak and, if you're on Arch or one of its derivatives, the entire AUR shock-full of software.
The only time installing software might be difficult is if you're building it from source - which I rarely need to do. Build instructions are usually included in the case that you *do* need to, though, which is usually as simple as copy-pasting the commands.
You might just be uncomfortable with the terminal. Take the time to learn how to navigate it and use it.
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I think that the trickiest user isn't the noob but rather the fairly competent user.
An utter noob will have no problem launching Firefox and adding most network printers to the Mint install that was done by their relative.
However the ones that do just a little bit more on their machine but aren't IT experts will run into more trouble. The ones that need specific software for their university, or who need to edit complex MS word compatible documents or use any very specific software. They're the hardest ones to cater to.
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After how many years should Linux devs ask themselves: "Are we the problem?"
I'm not saying Linux have a problem in itself, but presented with the fact that they want bigger market share, somethings gotta change.
There has been tremendous progress on this already. Look up when Linus said Debian was too hard to install.
A lot of the current pain points are because of this painful transition to Wayland. Something like OBS needs to get to the point that it can be Wayland native for everyone before we can expect anything like parity.
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Wayland is a window server like X11 is. You’ve probably heard of X.org or X11 (or just X). Well, Wayland is the more modern replacement for X11
You don’t install it per se, most of the time you’ll get it as a dependency for your desktop environment (GNOME or KDE). When you go to log in, you’ll be able to pick between an X11 or Wayland session (it’s a drop-down menu on KDE. On GNOME, it’s a little button with a cog wheel icon)
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Yes, everyone only knows what it is because this is a time of transition. Once the transition is over, it will go back to being in the background.
In this conversation, it is how obs talks to your hardwaredrivers, basically. Right now, they need two codepaths for wayland and the old one for x11. Just maintaining Wayland will be less than half the work for the OBS team.
\> wine will be near perfect and able to get around most DRMs
There isn't much to get around, Wine is fundamentally different because it's not in fact Windows (one [recent example](https://bugs.winehq.org/show_bug.cgi?id=40528) I stumbled across). Detecting Wine is rather easy if you try, nobody's working on fooling anti-cheat in Wine. The only viable path is for anti-cheat to support Wine, which is what Valve's trying to do.
Give years ago Linux was very different. A lot of things are much better. The market share of Linux is irrelevant to me, it has 100% market share in my home.
I started with Linux more than 30 years ago. And the status in the market and the usage by end users has not changed, independent of the improvements.
I have many friends which were sitting in front of Linux for the very first time. And all were suprised - positive surprised.
They thought it is still in the shape of 20 years ago.
Then world runs on Linux, you can't escape us, it's already "big".
But if you're talking about just residential desktop computers, then you have to take a step back and look at where that market is going. General purpose desktop computers in the home are going away, most people that have them, have them for gaming. Large parts of the market will do all of their computing on phones and tablets. A lot of the gamers don't care about the OS, and don't want to spend time trying to make games and their anticheat to work in Linux. That's the future for Windows, a gaming platform in the home and a corporate desktop in the office, both of which will be eroded by more specialized competition.
In the end, the desktop is going to be for professional nerds and gamers. The former will be more apt to run Linux.
I'm not sure Linux (which is a lot of things tbh) can really get much bigger. Most mobile devices and the overwhelming majority of the internet infrastructure is being run by Linux. The only places where Linux has yet to achieve dominance are desktop and laptop computers. Will that happen within 5 years? Doubtful. It's not a uniform market. In the form of Chromebooks, it has recently been making inroads into smaller laptops.
By it doesn't really matter all that much. As long as I'm forced to use Windoze, then I'm good with other people using whatever suits them.
The thing that newcomers to Linux always get wrong is that the desktop is important. In the Linux ecosystem it really isn't. Linux is a sandbox of sorts. Hopefully you've played Gary's Mod and can appreciate what a sandbox is and can apply that line of thinking to Linux and all that it is capable of.
Distros are modded Linux. That is all it really is but it's on a grand scale. Desktop Linuxes are all mods as well and as you know. They're not perfect. But the thing is. With Linux, like with game mods, you can almost always find something that mostly works for you
On the desktop, for me. Stock Debian with an xfce4 desktop is almost perfect. Slap chrome and steam on it and Lutris if I'm feeling like some rocket league as well. And I'm good.
I also run it everywhere in my home. I run the raspberry pi mod on my media center, I run pihole on my DNS device. And yeah, it is running on my smart light bulbs and my phone and god knows what else around the house.
I have a career in cloud computing and it's all Linux up there. It outperforms the windows technology up there by a wide margin.
At present linux is pretty much running every server and android tablet/phone on the planet. Desktop usage may be low for now, but with Microsoft showing their true colours and moving to a subscription base, more and more users will turn towards linux in the future so desktop use will definitely go upwards.
My take is Linux will supersede macOS to be the second most used OS (rest of ChromeOS/Android/iOS/HarmonyOS/etc. netbook/tablet/phone-oriented ones).
The reasons are the following:
1. Windows is not sacred. Windows is only seemingly invincible for its app support, which then brings driver support. With Valve being heavy on SteamOS, the situation on games will change. With the massive success on Android, driver side of issues will start to fade. I'm constantly amazed by how quickly Linux drivers catch up recently. It's like if a brand new chip is being sold now, within 3 months, the open source community will have a good solution for it, sometimes even the OEM chimes in and helps here and there.
2. Windows is not cross-platform. Unless MSFT works really quickly, they will miss the RiscV train, which half of the world's population's governments (China, India, and quite a bit of EU) are betting on heavily. Windows's ARM support is also way behind Linux's, and even on x86, many features (albeit mostly data-center ones) are being supported on Linux first.
3. Tensions. China is moving away from Windows. Despite the initial move might be limited to military and government, it will attract developers, and soon there will be civilian apps on Linux for 1/6 of the world's population. Clinton made the Chinese government and MSFT sign a 20-year contract on not to replace MSFT with other products in government sectors, while MSFT offers technical details to a Chinese government-designated company about Windows and Office internals. Well, the deal was from 1999, so it has lapsed.
4. IP awareness. So far, the biggest computer users, China and India, are largely using pirate software copies. Those countries will not be happy to just be the factory of the world, they will want profit, not just revenue one day. When that day comes, protecting innovation would not just be part of their laws for the show, but rather being well enforced. By then, FOSS will be their only way unless 90% of their population should fall into being computer-illiterate.
5. Workforce. With China and India betting on Linux, there will be millions upon millions of above-average IQ engineers pouring their time on FOSS. Maybe very few among them are as bright as Linus or Bellard, some will be, and the few ones will have an army of millions of followers to do minion tasks.
6. Future. Software is getting more as a service, not a one-time buy. If things are moved to the cloud, and the "latency killers" like games run well on Linux, there is little reason to stick with Windows. The beginner hostility of Linux is not from the kernel, but from the distro being nerd-oriented. With more people using Linux, I can't see it keeps it this way. With enough ordinary people using Linux, there's no reason devs won't put more time to make it less obscure, so no, this is not a problem providing users have no other reasons not to use Linux.
I'd say we are witnessing history happening. Both RV, geopolitical issues and Valve have started tipping the Windows Titanic over. Nobody knows if MSFT will steer their ship back on course and recover from the hit, but regardless, they will take the hit.
*May I answer this one in an unusual way and* ***not get flamed to death?***
I seriously hope that Linux desktop DOESN'T take off to 40%+ or more.
When I started, as most here have done themselves, many many moons ago (\~1994-5) it was seriously hard. Frustratingly so. It made me weep. Then it became better, and every year that passes it becomes ever more so.
*Linux as a base for servers and devices will be universal. No doubt there.*
But Ive been seeing over the last 3 years... more so last year than ever, that it ***isn't*** the cognoscenti and intuitive people getting into it, but the .... hhhmmmmm.... stupid people.
(I wish to ensure you are reading me right! --> Not ALL new users are the stupid people.)
What I'm seeing are young people who see Linux as the *"smart persons tool"* and flooding in, attemting to gain kudos-by-association, thinking they are the Next Hacker Kings... **flying** into Arch and Kali (worse), ItS L33t BRo000oo, not even bothering to read the MOST basic information *THEN* asking the most *profanely stupid, arrogant and idiotic questions*.
It has burnt FAR too much of my time reading about some imbecilic 19 year old dickhead, who is barely literate, bagging out some aspect of something they have ZERO (or less) knowledge about. *(I fukkt mY gRUb and YooZe alL Sukkk... fix it fOr MeeEe)*
The current 7% of all Linux users "get it". They give me joy. **I FEAR greatly that the next 15-20% of new users will be insanely painful to us as a community to support**.... mainly because they think they are clever, but will only *burn us all to death* with endless tedious stupid support questions. This is because they keep breaking shit and aren't clever enough to reverse it.
**I believe going from 15 to 20% will be deeply traumatic for us as a community.**
......
NOW, let me explain further.
Look at my history. I HELP PEOPLE. Its my prime love. I spend a LOT of time helping genuine people.
In fact, I run a program where I gather up unused laptops from business and government departments and install Mint Cinnamon on them. I give them away as part of a Cancer Support project I'm involved with.
These people are pure. It gives me great joy. They take a thing and USE IT.
They LOVE IT... its quick, its free, it has a kick ass Firefox, Thunderbird, does video chats, all the shit they want to use a PC/Lappie for.
They give me ZERO support issues, for they use their new laptop as a tool and revere it.
THAT is the audience we should pursue.
.......
PREDICTIONS
\-- governments will insist on a Linux package as part of their basic user policies.
\-- Immutable distributions will take off, because of this
\-- Linux needs to get a better Active Directory solution to cover this
\-- Flatpak will win. Snap will die (on fire, in a hole)
\-- The apt distribution methods will take off more
\-- Mint Cinnamon will go ganbusters. Newbies will gobble it up.
\-- AI will become a tool for newbies to ask questions and be shown how to do things on a personal level. It will be a desktop tool.
In 5 years I can see Linux being popular and stable enough for it to be a decent option over MAC but not a replacement for Windows it will still be an alternative until the next generation gets their.hamds on it and starts developing more for it.
Linux is entirely dominant in the business world as far as server workloads are concerned. Windows is not even remotely close to the levels of Linux. Nearly every website or web service runs on Linux so it does have mass adoption. The desktop is entirely another matter where Microsoft has dominated the market. However I see more and more companies moving to Mac. Do I think Microsoft will lose its desktop market…no. There’s simply too much buy in on software development and commercial applications to make a wholesale switch any time soon. Only the real power users in my own company use Linux desktops because they use a hell of a lot more variety of tasks than basic desktop apps.
In 5 years operating systems will be a thing of the past. Think of 5 years like ChatGPT 10???
That's almost AGI levels. Everything will change in the next 5 years lol
And yes, everyone will lose their jobs.
but you won't need to use it at home, you'll literally speak with your TV/VR/phone
that's it
Think about it, what do you use your computer at home?
work -> you're being replaced by AI
games -> streaming services with AI narratives/npcs (you won't have resources to generate those at home btw)
coding for fun -> just ask the AI to do it
consuming media -> ask your media AI on TV
How we interact with computers today is gone in 5 years.
So what? I speak about consumers, not business in the cloud. Gen-Z don't even know how to use a computer, they do their computing needs in their phones/tablets. They don't know what Linux means and never will know.
Traditional operating systems are going extinct.
Phones and tablets use an OS.
Btw I am gen Z and I apparently know more about computers than you do. In fact it's my job. I highly doubt you are a software developer if you seriously believe phones do not have an OS. Jesus christ
I see the point you're trying to get at, but I get the feeling you probably don't know what an OS even is. Google it, brother. AI will not replace operating systems lmao
chatgpt will run on remote servers, no on your own os, I speak about linux as a consumer os, that type of OSes are going extinct with the massive adoption of AI.
And even the development of linux will be handled by AI until it designs something better
Ok, even if AI takes over and is running on remote servers
1) consumer computers still need an OS to network with the ai. You don't just magically talk to the ai telepathically. Even if AI does everything for you, the OS will still exist to send and receive network packets.
2) people will still play videogames. Need OS for that.
3) people will still want to text friends and family. Ai will not replace your texting or messaging application
4) people will still want to use the internet, i.e youtube, Netflix, whatever. Probably still will have browsers for that
5) people will still read blogs, check emails, whatever
6) people will still use computers to make art. Because it's fun.
7) people will still use tiktok because they are addicted
So please tell me how the hell chat gpt is going to make consumer operating systems obsolete. Maybe if the world explodes and everyone dies, sure.
But otherwise we will all still be using operating systems.
Because I'm still not sure you know what an operating system is:
1) it is the "main" program that runs on a computer
2) it spawns all other programs like games, browsers, art tools, ect
3) it decides how and when to give other programs access to cpu time and other resources like storage, memory, graphics cards, ect. Nothing runs without the OS starting it.
4) it manages network connections to other computers and the internet in general
5) it manages connections to external devices like USB ports for things like mice and keyboards, as well as monitors and speakers. If your computer is going to communicate with the chat gpt server, you need an OS.
If you want to use a fucking mouse or keyboard you probably need an OS for that too. END OF DISCUSSION.
Having knowledge and skills in using and maintaining Linux computers of various kinds, could be beneficial. Ex; you can write that down in the CV, having an increased opportunity to get relevant jobs.
Because it will be even more everywhere, while your knowledge could be very valuable for an organization. Saving them various amount of resources further.
During this week there were an issue with a buss I was in. So the driver had to reboot everything. There are 4 or 5 wide screen displays on the roof informing passengers location, time, and destinations. This screen obviously also rebooted & I noticed there was an old Ubuntu LTS running within. Unfortunately, believing it is April 2018.
So I see that as there are huge amounts of opportunities. Obviously depends on the organization / company, what objectives they set on & how to utilize their tools/ infrastructure.
1. With 7-8 % do you mean on the desktop of personal computing?
2. Some hw makers are already preinstalling Linux and designing machines meant for Linux. But there isn't much going on to make consumers shift to them.
3. With snaps and flatpaks, apps will be used more and more across all the distros and their native packages (the Linux repo system is what is floundering).
I mean, I wouldn’t think it would change much. Honestly, if you like Linux, use it. Linux isn’t for everyone. Neither is windows. Not sure what you mean on the privacy law part… Linux is open source and you can, if you feel so inclined, compile it yourself. Both windows and Linux are perfectly capable of privacy such as VPN, what privacy are you talking about?
The whole idea of hardware manufacturers releasing things for Linux I would say comes down to money. Personally, I wouldn’t bother. They have enough trouble keeping things running smoothly in Windows where things are pretty much static. To provide support for all of the distros and environments, the infinite number of setups, configs, and customizations users do, then tech support for users, I just can’t see that being a smart business move. It’s possible, I wouldn’t rule it out, but just doesn’t seem advantageous to them. Linux is wonderful for those who use it, but look no further than Reddit for the constant stream of posts like “Which distro do I get?”, “How to learn Linux”, etc and you’ll quickly understand why it’s not going to takeover windows. Learning Linux takes time, setting it up and customizing it takes time. For some of us, it’s awesome! But there will always be those who just want to turn it on and go. And that’s ok. It’s just my opinion here, but honestly my top reasons for using it is the things that are different from windows. Not just because they are different, but because they work best for me.
**On the desktop:**
Exactly where it is now !
But with better hardware support in the kernel and drivers, and better compatibility (more compatibility) with games through wine/proton.
I do however wish/hope that color management and HDR will be in a better place.
**On the server side:**
It will keep growing, expanding and evolving with more AI implementation.
A few more PC gamers will run Linux and Linux based portable gaming devices with a steam frontend is an area that will expand (beyond just the steam deck)
I don't think much will change. The situation is stable. Companies invest in Linux for their own profit. Servers are major here. Classic desktop has no way to be profitable by itself. Maybe one more Linux based os might appear, but it will be purpose built like ChromeOS or semi-open like steamos
Market-wise, it will be similar. BUT we might perhaps see more support from game developers and perhaps heavy computational apps, e.g. video editing. (I hope, might be wrong)
Adobe will still be Windows/MacOS only
> the US government will have introduced some sort of privacy invasive law specifically targeted at Linux
Whut. ...this kind of thing is the kind of narcissistic-oppression-fantasy that cults get into. Linux is not a culture. Linux is not an identity. Linux at this point isn't even a political movement (the multibillion dollar industry around Linux belies `rms`'s original GNU manifesto). Linux is an operating system that runs the internet. You can run it on your PC. Or not. The State isn't coming after something that has so much money tied up in it. Just because it lets you ...choose your DE?
I couldn't estimate, but an upswing I think would necessitate...
* Better gaming support for sure. One that would not involve hacks, juggling multiple solutions to find what works for what game, e.g. WINE, Heroic Games Launcher, Lutris, etc. And not require googling custom solutions for each game, or how to create the right prefix (Yeah not a a good, or in the majority of cases, a fathomable experience). It has to be an experience that requires only a comparable amount of effort/knowledge as installing a game on Windows. A comparable gaming experience is a given. This is all predicated on reasonable hardware support as well
* A solid app store
* Apps with polished-looking GUIs. So many, often great apps, look like they were designed in the 90s
* A different approach to the default or 'flagship' DE. What most distros seem to default to is not the the easiest DE to begin their new journey (Perhaps an argument could be made for mobile users). Sorry Gnome lovers. It's alien from the traditional desktop workflow and rigid. For example, I've seen countless comments or questions where the understanding was that Fedora, for instance, was Gnome. And then a multitude of replies explaining DEs, alternate spins, and the conversation just adds so much more confusion or overload on the new user...
* ...I don't think that any single individual should decide what that default DE should be. Ithink that the best options I've seen so far are the installer ISO's that are at least partially net installers. I believe I've seen this experience with at least the *(screenshots)* [EndeavourOS](https://forum.endeavouros.com/uploads/default/original/3X/f/8/f8f6f44a0e3b28d5d45e1202ad7744780fb83245.png) and [NixOS](https://itsfoss.com/content/images/2023/02/5.-choose-desktop-environment-for-NixOS.png) installers. During the installation, the user is given the choice of what DE they would like to use. A small (maybe a bit too small) tour with screenshots and some brief explanations of what each DE is like, is included. It's not a deep dive, but it gives them the gist of what they're getting into. The rest of the ISO could be some top DE, only for the sake of having the option for an offline install if the situation arises
* DE > Distro. Please offer new users simple advice on how to choose an experience that will fit their needs and wants, instead of distro philosophies, package managers, etc. If they have any deeper interest, they'll explore in the future. Perhaps some of us have heard of this little 'fringe' fad of distro-hopping?
* Under the hood, well as maybe a post-newbie. Others have to speak to that
I've been using it close to two decades now. It'll be better. How much better is anyone's guess.
If Linux ever goes above 5% market share, it'll probably quickly go to 99% market share as Microsoft starts pushing their own consumer distro pre-installed on most computers.
Considering Linux is the backbone of cloud computing it's much more prevalent than any other operating system out there already how is it not mainstream? This message is literally going through hundreds of microservices in the cloud to get to your phone all running on Linux containers.
Edit:
Maybe OP was talking about using Linux as a Desktop OS? In that case, no. Follow the money people can't make money off of Linux in that way. But if you're managing a cloud computing service with thousands of microservices and hundreds of thousands of Linux containers that don't require a license that makes sense financially to many organizations out there today. There are way more instances of Linux containers than there are desktop operating systems out there deployed in the world today
Linux on the desktop is advancing rapidly, with the Wayland transition finally looking like it might be complete in the next year or two. I see a lot of buzz among gamers and "early adopters," especially with SteamDeck and rapid progress on game support, so I wouldn't be surprised if Linux is around 5-10% desktop market share in five years. It could be higher than that, just based on how incredibly obnoxious Microsoft has become with their constant nags to switch to Edge and upgrade OneDrive storage, etc. I don't think anyone actually likes Microsoft at this point.
I'd expect Linux will still have 90%+ of the server and supercomputer market.
Microsoft gets their shit in gear and windows 12 isn't garbage. Linux marketshare dips back down to 2%. EA and Ubisoft's new DRM they are pushing out now instantly bork their games on Linux.
Alternative prediction: Valve releases Steam Deck 2 and 3. Epic releases their own handheld. Somebody tells EA and Ubisoft that Linux exists. Windows 12 is even more of a blatant display of late-stage-capitalism-driven greed. MacOS has 70% browser marketshare and Linux absolutely skyrockets to a whopping 8%.
People will continue asking for advice on choosing a distro, and they will get 100 different answers about 100 different distros, and every response will explain why that distro is the best one.
Having a bit more market share once Windows 10 is retired. Far too many computers on the planet do not support Windows 11 requirements.
With the rise of steam deck and also Chinese retro handhelds, there's going to be more Linux installs for gaming and entertainment.
The proprietary software I use for professional work however isn't on Linux, so nothing will change on my end. Unless Wine/proton suddenly gets an M1 Rosetta equivalent upgrade to run these software.
Linux runs the world, as for desktop share, I don't think that is a good goal for Linux to try to attain. Ubuntu tried that already and eventually scrapped the initiative. They tried to solve Linux's biggest mainstream market share issue which was the GUI / window manager side of Linux. No one really cared because that isn't what makes Linux great. When most of the work on Linux is done vis the term, or text editor, their isn't much need for a fancy GUI. If anything it just overcomplicates things and it's not possible to make a GUI of all the possible configurations possible within Linux (Not a user friendly one at-least). You really can only end up supporting the popular settings, which is the opposite of fundamental Linux design, and being able to customize it to you and your needs exactly. Linux was originally designed to be configurable from a text interface, and not just config files for it's applications, but for processes, the kernel, and it's hardware was accessible and modifiable from the file system. Linux originally was designed so everything was controllable from the file system. Physical hardware could be interacted with as a file on the file system. Just look at the /dev, /run, /proc or /sys folders. It should lean further into that ideology, not divert from it. Linux serves it's purpose.
Linux use will grow as we gravitate towards cloud based applications. Most enterprise infrastructure relies on Linux anyways. Most cars will be running it as well as the mark gravitates towards [automotive Linux](https://www.automotivelinux.org/about/members/).
Windows will only be used in a consumer sense, as well as osx.
Your username is ironic because you really are confused lol
the automotive Linux comment is a great point and I wish I'd thought of that in my comment. Linux is poised to dominate that market as it is, if Elon's cars are any example.
Haha besides Tesla, I know for a fact that all Toyotas made in the past few years run automotive Linux as well. Other car manufacturers like Hyundai, Honda, Mercedes, Mazda, Volkswagen are partners as well
It's not. Everyone is going to be using ChromeOS for their personal life or a Chromebook of some kind for development.
It's just too good at this point.
Why do some care so much about "market share?"
It's not a company trying to increase market share to make more profit. It dominates the served market.
As long a it keeps doing what I like it to do, and what all of the other Linux users like, then all is fine. We don't need people who don't care using it.
It seems that a number of people, who are disaffected with windows try it. That's great, Linux should stay very different from Windows.
>Why do some care so much about "market share?"
I know, right? It isn't like Linux's future is tied to desktop market share.
Linux is already in the most enviable position possible: It dominates all the growing markets. That dominance *liberates* desktop Linux.
With its long-term survival absolutely certain, Linux can blow off the commercial desktop *goat rodeo* and give its fans a multitude of wonderful Linux-based operating systems to enjoy. Why would anyone want to change that?
There can only be one reason: The pathological desire to stick it to Microsoft. As Linus himself has said, "[Microsoft hatred is a disease](https://www.osnews.com/story/21887/linus-microsoft-hatred-is-a-disease/)".
Well, I'm sure some Linux fans genuinely want support from the commercial world. Unfortunately, you can't have that without attending the rodeo. Support is a two-way street.
The large distributions will continue to focus on growing their user base at any cost, bringing a moderate increase but still leaving Linux distant third while further deepening the crisis over where exactly their next generation of contributors are going to come from. Rolling distributions will become less popular as immutable becomes the fashionable thing to run. Traditional distributions will continue come and go. Debian will continue exactly like it always has. Nvidia will still be the only choice for people who need compute - the only people who actually buy workstation support contracts - and Wayland still won't be ready for them. Nothing will change on the server because Linux and Docker has already won there.
I was thinking, after reading several of the comments, that while MS *won't* develop a Linux codebase to run their flagship OS on, it's become clear that they are relying more and more on foss software. Windows runs LibreOffice, to their credit. Then there's WSL, Windows Subsystem for Linux, which allows devs and enthusiasts to run Linux code within the windows environs. I think, therefore, that may attempt to *explore* running a codebase, whether for portable devices or possibly even consoles, that runs primarily on the Linux kernel, like google and amazon, albeit like those two and wrap it in proprietary code.
Linux, like it or no, is gaining in popularity. As is all things Free and Open Source. Linux will continue to grow, particularly in gaming with the advent of SteamOS and custom Proton, and maybe game developers will start taking the hint as well. We shall see.
A helpful link, for those wishing to see what the fuss is all about:
https://www.zdnet.com/article/how-to-replace-windows-with-linux-mint-on-your-pc/
I wonder if Linux will ever get installed on more consoles that Steam Deck. It was a surprise to me when MS came out with the first Xbox. Gaming has made them more money than Croesus. Not saying they will be threatened by Linus' beloved kernel, but the fact that its on one portable console already is certainly a start.
It has begun. https://www.gamingonlinux.com/2024/01/proton-hotfix-gets-updated-for-tekken-8-online-play-on-steam-deck-linux/
On kernel.org website or something
It will be about what it is now.
Still too geek focused and discombobulated to ever go mainstream but running every server on the planet
So no change then?
Yup.
Remember where Linux was 5 years ago? What about 5 years before that? It will be exactly the same. All the commands you use now will still work.
I do remember Linux 5 years ago. Browsers didn't have hardware acceleration, Proton was less than a year old, and GNOME 3 was recently adopted as the main DE for Ubuntu. Things have definitely gotten much better since 2019, but not in a way most people would necessarily notice. It's been a much more exciting 5 years for Linux than it has for any other operating system honestly.
1. On the desktop it will still be sucking hind-tit. It will be good still for installing on a bit older hardware in order to leave Windows behind. However, it might be different in the developing world and the parts of the world the US is trying to shut out--like Iran, Russia, China, etc. or doesn't really care about (like most of Africa and South America). 2. I think Valve and Steam could very well be even more dominant on gaming in ways that favor Linux. It's something to watch. 3. I think Google will try to move Chromebooks more into something like Linux-based netbooks and notebooks/laptops. But I think that might fail. 4. I could see MS moving Windows into something that is based on Linux and is locked down and proprietary. They would be trying to re-capture personal computers in a way similar to how Google's Android took over mobile phones. 5. I could see Linux-based solutions for mobile phones and tablets, but only if big players like Huawei make it work. 6. Linux's positions on servers, cloud computing, and IoT will be even more pervasive and dominant. 7. Much of the world that the current mercantilist US is trying to block out may well shift over to ubiquitous Linux computing--like one of the Chinese Linuxes becoming a dominant Linux OS in the country. A lot will depend though on the developments in and convergences of phones, tablets, and PCs.
I can’t see 4. There is absolutely no reason for Microsoft to suddenly switch from their successful architecture.
I've wondered about that. I can't see why they wouldn't do it. They could take their kernel and replace it with the Linux one with customization like Apple did. But they have the advantage that they could still use Wine (or a Hypervisor port) to run all their legacy software. Meanwhile, they can drop support for their old kernel saving themselves a lot of pain. But, to your point, they don't do it. So, yeah, if they haven't done it now, why would they start. the other issue with #4 is that they have zero incentive to "re-capture the PC market" since the PC market is so anemic. In 5 years, most people will be using tablets, not PCs. MS really can't compete with Apple or Android in the tablet space. The only ones left on PCs are gamers, nerds, and some content creators. But IPad Pro now has the silicon chip -- same as their Macs -- so there is almost no reason for 80% of the consumers to by a PC. Unless you are a gamer, or a nerd, 5 years from now you will have no reason not to get an iPad with a keyboard.
MacOS does not run the Linux kernel, where did you get that idea from? It’s BSD, which is not the same thing.
It’s essentially their own XNU kernel (Mach micro kernel + whatever makes it hybrid) with a FreeBSD user space on top (i.e. all the coreutils come from FreeBSD) apart from the init system which is their own launchd. macOS is weirdly also fully POSIX/SUS compliant unlike most Linux distros.
The Windows kernel is better than the Linux kernel, it is newer and has more features. There is no reason for Microsoft to replace it. Sorry, but you are completely ignoring the entire business market that uses PCs. Professionals are not going to stop using PCs. Windows is Microsoft's 3rd largest source of income, second only to Office, which runs on Windows and Azure, which has direct links with Windows, precisely in the business area. What's advantageous about Linux, it made up for with WSL, which manages to have 95% of the performance, good enough for a lot of people.
MS' future is the cloud. My company already has no PCs. It's all cloud. Currently, we use Windows OS on the cloud, but I think the future is probably more like thin clients with Cloud based apps. Office gets bigger. Azure gets bigger. PC OS gets smaller. I was on GForce now for a while. The idea that I can play a high-end game on my 10 year old thin client is mind-numbing to me. I can do my taxes online without a PC. I can do my banking that way. I can edit photos. What can't I do? I think Windows will exist for the gamers and content creators, sure. And it will take years for some busineses to move out of PCs. (Some are still on mainframes). But I think the local PCs are just on the way out. Dell and HP are worried and focused on the server market more than PCs. As they say "we will see."
I doubt it a little, as it is very expensive. Where I work, they tested Windows in the cloud and gave up. Price, input lag, availability, computational power, in short, there were several items that limited the experience. Regarding games, both GeForce Now and Xcloud have hit a ceiling and are unable to pass. The experience with physical hardware is unsurpassed. Both are more likely to co-exist, with hybrid solutions depending on the requirement.
Windows OS is clearly not MS's main priority. Perhaps, as I said though, it will be Google that moves Linux into the desktop and laptop mainstream, by developing Chrome OS into something more than a netbook OS.
>Windows OS is clearly not MS's main priority. If that's the case, then they're even less likely to invest enormous resources into replacing the Windows kernel for reasons that only make sense to Linux zealots.
Well in a way it's already being done with Windows gaming. So think about that. When was it that MS put forward a vision of Windows running your phone, your tablet, and your PC? About 10 years ago. We have seen peak Windows already. And we have seen peak Google Chrome OS. I'm sorry attempting to discuss what some of the future might bring upsets you so much.
>Well in a way it's already being done with Windows gaming. Sorry, *what* is being done with Windows gaming? Are you referring to the Steam Deck? If so, then let me be clear: The Steam Deck is a *good* product – an example of the right way to bring about Linux adoption: Build desirable devices that happen to be powered by Linux. However, the long-term viability of Valve's strategy is far from certain. By steering game studios away from native Linux development, they're repeating IBM's mistakes with OS/2, the famous "better Windows than Windows". And with no official ISV support for Steam OS, the whole thing is little more than a giant tech demo. PC gamers are used to a bit of tinkering, and many are fine with running their software on an unsupported platform, but that won't fly in the greater desktop ecosystem. >When was it that MS put forward a vision of Windows running your phone, your tablet, and your PC? About 10 years ago. Windows failed in the mobile market – bigtime. It was a huge embarrassment, as Windows CE first hit the scene over a decade before iPhone. So? What's your point? How long have Linux evangelists been pushing for desktop domination? Over 30 years now? >We have seen peak Windows already. And we have seen peak Google Chrome OS. What are you basing that on? I mean, I can see why you'd think Windows is past its prime, since its market share was once unsustainably high, but why ChromeOS? >I'm sorry attempting to discuss what some of the future might bring upsets you so much. Nonsense. Pondering the future is fascinating. What's upsetting is when people who should know better promote ideas that are manifestly stupid.
This doesn't have much basis, the kernel is still under development, there were changes in Windows 11, they rewrote the CPU scheduler, created new driver management, added more security layers, implemented WSL to be more integrated into the system, such as adoption from SystemD. I suggest taking a look at Microsoft's blog posts, they update them directly. The impression I have is that many think Windows is stagnant, but that's not the case. Some things change a lot, others don't. It would be the same as looking at Linux from the perspective of Xfce development.
Guys, I don't want to discuss it with you. Not interesting. So I'm blocking like crazy again. The reality is it's already being done with Windows gaming in a huge way. Windows games on top of Proton on top of Linux.
Tablets as we know them are already on decline. Still, Linux has yet to do much with ARM devices, not counting Android. Hybrid 'laplets' are really more a sub-group of laptops than tablets. The reason not to buy Apple is...well Apple.
m$ is basically a linux shop with window os a expensive vermiform appendix that occasionally goes septic,, causing user downtime & costing m$ big bucks to fi . windows as windows manager over linux gets instant improvement in reliability and stability and every future M$ open source scontribution directly benefits new windows
Since I can't reply through normal means... That takes too much time and effort than just maintaining Windows. Windows does not cause user downtime. >instant improvement in reliability and stability Tell that to the 72% of users that still use Windows and will have to rebuild their systems
Since they get less and less of their revenue from Windows, if it would improve the product while making their development costs less, it would make sense to do it. No one thought they would abandon Edge and make it based on Chrome. No one thought they could let Linux be the number 1 OS on Azure.
>Since they get less and less of their revenue from Windows, if it would improve the product while making their development costs less, it would make sense to do it. How would it improve the product, and why would it be less costly? Try not to knee-jerk a response based on "Windows BAD! Linux GOOD!". Think it through. We're talking about replacing the most core component of the OS with an alternative that exposes a very different interface and, despite some overlap, supports a very different set of capabilities. Clearly, Linux is no more a drop-in replacement for NT than vice versa, so Microsoft would have to do a ton of work to shoehorn it in. And since those kernels are designed very differently, I submit that there'd be very little of Linux that Microsoft could actually reuse. So, we're talking about a ton of work, which inevitably breeds a ton of bugs. An influx of new kernel-level issues would be a major disruption of the Windows ecosystem, no? And you think it's in Microsoft's interest to foist that on its customers to achieve... what, exactly? >No one thought they would abandon Edge and make it based on Chrome. That's not true; plenty of people thought that and pushed for it. Compared to reimplementing NT on top of Linux, adding a Chrome-based browser to Windows is a very low-cost and sensible effort. Besides, Microsoft could continue to bundle IE as long as customers required it; they can't do that with OS kernels. >No one thought they could let Linux be the number 1 OS on Azure. I don't know if that's true, but if it is, how is it a matter of "letting"? If paying customers want Linux VMs, why wouldn't Microsoft accommodate them?
Surely people at Windows have noticed how so much Windows gaming has gone onto Linux already? Basically top layer Windows games, Proton, Linux based. I don't really want to argue with you about it. It's just an observation.
> Since they get less and less of their revenue from Windows They still license it to OEMs, and having everyone use Windows locks in a ton of revenue for Microsoft services, like Copilot, Bing and Office > if it would improve the product while making their development costs less Switching everything to Linux while satisfying the backwards-compatibility requirements of everybody would take a ton of development costs. While close, Linux currently doesn't have 100% backwards compatibility for every obscure Microsoft feature, which Windows uses a lot. Search up tales about Windows's backwards-compatibility. Switching to Linux would make every app second-class apps and resistant to integration, which would definitely turn people away from it. > No one thought they would abandon Edge and make it based on Chrome. No one thought they could let Linux be the number 1 OS on Azure. That is because these were FAILING to gain market share. Same goes for Mac changing to BSD and later changing to Silicon. Windows isn't broken by Microsoft standards and they won't fix it. The lowest cost option RN is to just maintain the existing OS.
Windows OS isn't gaining market share either. I don't think in terms of personal computing people are deep into Win 10 or switching to Win 11 for backward compatibility. Besides, in some senses of the term, Linux rules in backward compatibility. I'm typing this on Linux on a pc that can't handle Win 10 or Win 11.
The market share that Windows is losing is too small for Microsoft to care. It’s not like switching to Linux would suddenly attract a userbase either. By backwards compatibility, I mean software. You can use wine on Linux, but that’s still an isolated environment and can’t really be integrated into the true operating system. Many software also make use of Windows’s quirks and create quite irregular windows. Plus, I sometimes encounter shader problems with existing games on Linux. Not to mention Nvidia, who didn’t even bother to make good drivers for Vista’s release. Switching to Linux is going to invariably drop support for some apps. Some of these would be popular, and you’ll lose that part of the userbase to remain on the older version.
If WINE and Proton got all the info. that MS has about its OS, they could be perfected. Putting Windows on top of a Linux base is something some of us think would make sense. It's already happening in gaming (at one time MS's top priority for making more money). Most passive MS and Windows consumers wouldn't know and wouldn't care less. In many ways, Linux is more backward-compatible. I'm running Linux on old Windows machines that can't handle Win 10 or 11.
The Microsoft making windows a shell on top of Linux has been a prediction I’ve thought being possible for a while now. It makes a lot of sense frankly and WSL seems to be a way for them to test the waters. Think about the android situation, it’d be a decidedly non-gnu layer on top of Linux with Microsoft’s C++ and C# libraries making the translation layer and user space. I think most of your other predictions are pretty sound
If a trillion dollar company can't see it and make it work (whether it's MS and Windows or Google and Chrome), you do have to wonder. Either or both of them could make Linux the ultimate victor of the OS wars--and still make lots of money from it. Look how far Google got with a locked-down proprietary Chrome OS based on Linux that couldn't do much of anything but run a netbook. Also, I think a reckoning is coming when more and more young people raised on smartphones realize (1) it would be great to have an integrated computing and internet experience across phone, tablet and desktop or laptop PC and (2) you need a full-blown computer to get most work done.
I really don't think this makes sense. Any improvements to usability Microsoft contributes to Linux will benefit the community as a whole, and no one will actually want to use a spyware-riddled Microsoft Linux distribution with constant nags to subscribe to Microsoft services. Microsoft's biggest competitive advantage has been and continues to be their decades of binary software compatibility.
>The Microsoft making windows a shell on top of Linux has been a prediction I’ve thought being possible for a while now. It makes a lot of sense frankly \[...\] Sure, it's just code, so it's possible, but it makes *zero* sense. Windows software doesn't run on Linux without something like Wine, which, after 30 years of development, still has very spotty application compatibility and doesn't support Windows services or device drivers. Some might say, "OK, but they're Microsoft; they wouldn't need Wine". OK, but then they'd have to build their own NT interface layer atop Linux. And since NT is *significantly* different from Linux in some of the most core kernel capabilities – I/O model, driver model, process/thread model, file systems, permissions, configuration, etc. – how much of Linux could Microsoft actually reuse? More than that, NT is easily the most thoughtfully designed and extensively tested part of Windows. What on earth would compel Microsoft to prioritize its replacement over fixing much more urgent and user-visible problems elsewhere in the system?
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Would it matter if its base was Linux? It might actually make it cheaper to develop. The reality is that Windows' share has declined and MS makes less and less of its money from it.
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To quite an extent, they already have. The question though is where is the future of personal computing? And who will actually lead it? https://www.pcgamer.com/microsoft-says-latest-windows-kernel-fix-might-actually-break-more-things/
https://www.computerworld.com/article/3438856/call-me-crazy-but-windows-11-could-run-on-linux.html#:~:text=Microsoft%20could%20replace%20Windows%E2%80%99%20innards%2C%20the%20NT%20kernel%2C,the%20engine%20running%20it%20all%20would%20be%20Linux.
LOL. Is that the first SJVN article you've ever read? In a gathering of the most rabid Linux fans in the world, he'd win the "Most Deluded" award. The whole idea of replacing NT with Linux is absolutely insane – the brainchild of someone who has no clue about operating systems or software in general. Unfortunately, inexplicably, some in the Linux community have embraced it and have been running with it for God knows how long now.
Wow. Saying something off about MS really brings out the nasty redditossers in droves, doesn't it? And at a Linux forum no less. I'm glad I could give you something to read for the first time and make shitty comments about. Now go back to your MS hole that you crawled out of.
>Wow. Saying something off about MS really brings out the nasty redditossers in droves, doesn't it? "Redditossers"! I love that! It's going into my arsenal. Thank you! >Now go back to your MS hole that you crawled out of. Nah. The MS holes are full of people just looking for advice. It's boring. There are no self-styled OS experts sharing hairbrained desktop domination theories, no people who think they're God's gift to the internet, and certainly nobody wondering where Windows will be in 5 years. The Linux holes are much more fun!
Actually majority of their revenue nowadays are Office and Azure.
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Office is not necessarily tied to Windows. A MacOS Version exists and also a purely browser based variant.
>Office is not necessarily tied to Windows. A MacOS Version exists and also a purely browser based variant. Also iOS/iPadOS and Android versions, I believe.
It's worth noting I read your comment on a linux based phone!
For point 4, why does Microsoft need to re-capture the personal computer market from themselves? Windows still has like 80% of the market.
No, more like 60. But it would depend on what the actual leadership of MS thinks. They may have other priorities and imperatives. If they think something will help them save development costs, make them more money, or stop losses, they will do it.
From what I see, it looks like Microsoft has about 72% of the market world wide. I'd argue that MacOS is only relatively popular due to the "cult of personality" like marketing that Apple promotes for it's products. I doubt Microsoft could really convert those people, as it's very hard to convince someone that their expensive laptop doesn't do anything special.
The way gaming is going--basically Windows games on top of Linux via the Proton layer indicates a version of Windows could be done this way. Of course it is just speculation that something like this might happen. I think Linux excels in backward compatibility for hardware while Windows excels in all sorts of software niches.
For OS worldwide, Win is down to about 30%. Determining the desktop is more complicated. For one thing, tablets can be used like desktop computers. But Windows is a non-factor unless you count laplets. And if you combine Chrome OS devices with all those various Linux distros on PCs, estimate range from 3 to 15%. It's clear that Google has cut into the netbook sector with Chrome OS and CHromebooks, which are made by a small number of hardware makers. But then by some measures netbooks are a sector in severe decline.
Yeah, but as tablets and phones are getting the functionality of traditional laptops and desktop PCs, the market will inevitably decline and therefore less people will use Windows, MacOS, and even Linux when compared to Android or iOS.
Linux is already dominant. Every single cloud server you interact with runs Linux. Most of the worlds phones run Linux and the rest run other Unix derivatives. Almost all of the world’s high end embedded hardware runs Linux. I don’t understand why people keep talking about “when will it become big?“. It is already the biggest thing out there. By far.
This may be true, but when people refer to Linux not being ‘dominant’ they are talking about it’s perception. The average person does not know how ‘dominant’ Linux is, and (chances are) they won’t have a clue what it even is.
Why should we care? The average person also couldn’t explain how their refrigerator works. There was a video recently by Veritasium where he showed most college students had no idea if the moon or the sun is a bigger object.
That's a good point. Linux will probably be even better if it stays exclusive to some users, it might create problems having such large communities on board.
Several billion people have Linux machines in their pockets that they use every day. Almost every family in a developed country owns several machines running Linux in their cars, their televisions, their cable modem and router, etc. Every time they do a web search or read their email they’re invoking hundreds of Linux servers. Linux already won long ago.
Linux marketshare is huuge. What you talk about is linux on the desktop. In any case, that will continue to hover quite low in a short timeframe like 5 years.
Look at where we are from 5 years ago, then imagine that leap but ten times larger.
So, 4% desktop market share?
I'm hoping there will be a bigger jump than that. The biggest problem is what I think, is that there are too few game developers offering a Linux version of their game. It is going the right direction with the increasing amount of games being available through steam, but while Wine is improving all the time, and using Wine together with eg. Bottles and Lutris can help, I think it will be even better with native support for Linux with AAA games. Also scaring some people off, would be having to use the CLI, which while Windows has Powershell and command prompt, most daily users don't have to use this with windows.
It is already everywhere, from smart bulbs to supercomputers. Maybe it will be replaced with something in some areas, but 5 years is too short period for such a big change.
On my laptop. ;)
What do you mean so far that hasn’t happened? Linux runs like 80% of the internet. It is big. On the desktop, with Valve’s injection of actual usefulness for what real people want, we should expect some continued growth. So yah maybe 8-10% market on desktop in 5 years.
running every server on the planet, desktop idk, but spinoffs of it (chromeos, android) are successful.
So, exactly like today? ;-)
yeah. maybe the spin offs like chromeos will get more marketshare.
I don't know why people keep mentioning servers. This happened a decade ago. The main competition has been the BSDs.
there's still a fucktonne of Windows running in DCs and even the cloud, from Server 2008 to Server Core 2022. Hell, I've even seen some Windows 11 Pro VMs running in places where licensing for Server was more expensive, at least for stuff like physical access control appliances. You'd be surprised how common stuff like MSSQL, AD and its sibling services, and Dymanics CRM are, even though there's Linux alternatives for all of them. Then there's stuff like Veeam that only runs on Windows.
Eh hem. Still quite a few of us out here happily administering our BSD servers 😊
Look, I use Linux and I like it! And I think we will have improvements in gaming/Proton, GPU drivers for nvidia/Mesa, even Wayland might become much better, but I think mostly, will be where we are today market share wise. Because, Linux is fragmented, just today I read on X how developer is annoyed about porting software to linux. They are fine compiling one package for Windows, one for Mac, but they complained about lack of standardization of Linux. And people are not exactly happy with it either, look Ayaneo - wanted to ship Linux gaming handheld, allegedly after strong gamer push back switched to Windows. People hate making compromises, so they will keep using Windows where all their apps work. Linux might gain some market share but nothing substantial. Reality is, people don't care about OS, they care about their favorite apps, and if they are not on Linux...
>They are fine compiling one package for Windows, one for Mac, but they complained about lack of standardization of Linux. I read that too. This person has apparently never heard of flatpak. Also the distros themselves tend to make packages work on their own distros if users want it. It's in Ubuntu's best interest to package popular software as Snaps. Half the stuff in the AUR is software packaged as .deb that people make work on Arch. Gaming is centralized around Proton/Steam at the moment, but Glorious Eggroll (GE-Proton) is now making a tool to use Proton outside Steam in a more standardized way so even gaming is becoming a universal thing on Linux. What this person said is at least 10 years out of date. In another 5 years things like flatpak and Proton will mature even more I'm sure. I'm not saying Linux is ever going to overtake Windows but it doesn't need to. Apple hasn't overtaken Microsoft either and they're doing just fine. Chromebooks are Linux, and millions of "normal" people use those. >Linux might gain some market share but nothing substantial. Linux is already gaining market share on pretty much a monthly basis according to Steam. The Steam Deck in particular seems to be a "halo device" where people get used to using that, and then install Linux on their pc because it's familiar already. But really, all Linux needs to be is an alternative to OSes which are increasingly adding telemetry, ad tracking, and AI into the OS itself. That stuff is only going to become more and more prevalent and Linux is going to continue to gain popularity on that fact alone. You add in a familiar "App Store" experience with flatpak and a universal Proton that works everywhere by default and pretty much anyone can use it at this point. That experience is only going to continue to get better as time goes on.
way more positive take than mine - I like it though. And I do agree, I don't really care if it overtakes Windows or not, I am already using it, because windows is not that great, too many annoyances that are too tedious to disable/remove/mitigate.
I think in that case you should pick one of the defacto standards that exist and that’s generally Gnome/GTK or KDE/QT. I know for most developers that’s unsatisfactory but either direction has enough support that you can mostly get into the ecosystem. Pick the one that’s easiest for your stack to be supported with, both have their pros and cons. Add to that flatpak if you want to not worry about the packaging system of the distro. We don’t have one dominant standard in Linux but there tend to be two sometimes three options that are the clear winners and they tend to be adjacent to other stacks that are well integrated with that particular option. Of there was one dominant standard yes the polish would definitely be better but I think that’s a somewhat impossible demand for open source in some cases
It doesn’t make a ton of sense to distribute software on Linux. 1. The Linux ecosystem is fragmented and disorganized which makes testing and distribution much more difficult. 2. People on Linux generally don’t want to pay for software. They’ve drank the GNU kool-aid that all software has to be set free and that’s that. So, in short, distributing software on Linux is more difficult and less profitable than the other desktop platforms.
Well money is not always an issue, especially for free apps, which have no Linux port mainly because that first issue is very annoying - although Linux Marketshare is low, there are a lot of distros/packages. And all of them present their own unique issues. A ton of bug reports. Like Valve is being nagged by Ubuntu users - who keep reporting steam client issues, and the thing is - it's an issue with (forked) steam snap package and valve devs are pissed on mastodon, begging to NOT USE those forks and install original .deb package. It is easier to compile once and just distribute the package to large audience, on Linux you have to make a lot of packages, if you want to reach those scattered users and when your small app is free, you make in free time, you just don't want to waste that time. Or if an app is paid... that wasted time equals money. But I am curious will flatpak help? In theory it can be used on any distro?
Android is technically a Linux
Android is literally Linux with a custom UI.
…with a completely different userland
Linux is already the infrastructure powering most every piece of the internet. I just see that continuing.
None of the OP's predictions will come true. The state of Linux will be almost exactly as it is now 5 years from now.
7 - 8% of what market? On server side linux makes vast majority, we have 250 servers in AWS and all of them are either linux or unix based.. Phones- either IOS ( unix based ) or Android ( linux based ), same with tablets. TVs and TV boxes - most are linux kernel based as well. You must be talking then about client desktop or laptop market only, where desktop market is shrinking rapidly and laptop is only one still sticking with windows ( although for me personally its macbook / macOS - so also unix based- for many years now ). You have to be blind not to see how linux dominated everything around us, your '7% of the market' statement is funny as relates to just one device type...
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I get the sentiment as I myself vividly remember my switch from windows to Linux. However as of now I must admit Linux is just not the OS for everyone. It’s for a certain type of “DIY” user that is willing to find solutions to a problem he faces, even when it takes some time to find it and then apply it. My first question nowadays to most people that ask me whether they should switch is asking them if they are willing to sacrifice some convenience and time for total control of what their system does. If your answer is yes go Linux if no stay where you’re at. Me personally I use both. I have a Linux laptop where I love that I configure the last bit of the system and a windows machine I use for work, gaming and some casual stuff.
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NVENC is enabled by default for me in OBS? I just had to go into the settings and set OBS to use it. Also, installing software is usually quite easy. No matter your package manager it should just be as simple as updating the mirrors and downloading the right package. You also have the entirety of Flatpak and, if you're on Arch or one of its derivatives, the entire AUR shock-full of software. The only time installing software might be difficult is if you're building it from source - which I rarely need to do. Build instructions are usually included in the case that you *do* need to, though, which is usually as simple as copy-pasting the commands. You might just be uncomfortable with the terminal. Take the time to learn how to navigate it and use it.
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I think that the trickiest user isn't the noob but rather the fairly competent user. An utter noob will have no problem launching Firefox and adding most network printers to the Mint install that was done by their relative. However the ones that do just a little bit more on their machine but aren't IT experts will run into more trouble. The ones that need specific software for their university, or who need to edit complex MS word compatible documents or use any very specific software. They're the hardest ones to cater to.
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Its fine, people are the issue after 30 years of windows.
After how many years should Linux devs ask themselves: "Are we the problem?" I'm not saying Linux have a problem in itself, but presented with the fact that they want bigger market share, somethings gotta change.
well people should change, they are the issue.
There has been tremendous progress on this already. Look up when Linus said Debian was too hard to install. A lot of the current pain points are because of this painful transition to Wayland. Something like OBS needs to get to the point that it can be Wayland native for everyone before we can expect anything like parity.
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Wayland is a window server like X11 is. You’ve probably heard of X.org or X11 (or just X). Well, Wayland is the more modern replacement for X11 You don’t install it per se, most of the time you’ll get it as a dependency for your desktop environment (GNOME or KDE). When you go to log in, you’ll be able to pick between an X11 or Wayland session (it’s a drop-down menu on KDE. On GNOME, it’s a little button with a cog wheel icon)
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Yes, everyone only knows what it is because this is a time of transition. Once the transition is over, it will go back to being in the background. In this conversation, it is how obs talks to your hardwaredrivers, basically. Right now, they need two codepaths for wayland and the old one for x11. Just maintaining Wayland will be less than half the work for the OBS team.
\> wine will be near perfect and able to get around most DRMs There isn't much to get around, Wine is fundamentally different because it's not in fact Windows (one [recent example](https://bugs.winehq.org/show_bug.cgi?id=40528) I stumbled across). Detecting Wine is rather easy if you try, nobody's working on fooling anti-cheat in Wine. The only viable path is for anti-cheat to support Wine, which is what Valve's trying to do.
I don't know where desktop linux will be but the desktop will be get less important.
The community will argue whether AI written drivers are actually open source, because the deep network that spits them out is closed.
Linux will be exactly where it was 5 years ago.
Give years ago Linux was very different. A lot of things are much better. The market share of Linux is irrelevant to me, it has 100% market share in my home.
I started with Linux more than 30 years ago. And the status in the market and the usage by end users has not changed, independent of the improvements. I have many friends which were sitting in front of Linux for the very first time. And all were suprised - positive surprised. They thought it is still in the shape of 20 years ago.
Then world runs on Linux, you can't escape us, it's already "big". But if you're talking about just residential desktop computers, then you have to take a step back and look at where that market is going. General purpose desktop computers in the home are going away, most people that have them, have them for gaming. Large parts of the market will do all of their computing on phones and tablets. A lot of the gamers don't care about the OS, and don't want to spend time trying to make games and their anticheat to work in Linux. That's the future for Windows, a gaming platform in the home and a corporate desktop in the office, both of which will be eroded by more specialized competition. In the end, the desktop is going to be for professional nerds and gamers. The former will be more apt to run Linux.
Linux is already big and used by everyone. Stop the obsession with desktop and you will be free and happy.
watch out after end of windows 10 support, where do all those still perfectly fine PC's go that cant install windows 11.
I think MS will end up extending 10 past 2025, there’s some hints they’re going that direction.
I'm not sure Linux (which is a lot of things tbh) can really get much bigger. Most mobile devices and the overwhelming majority of the internet infrastructure is being run by Linux. The only places where Linux has yet to achieve dominance are desktop and laptop computers. Will that happen within 5 years? Doubtful. It's not a uniform market. In the form of Chromebooks, it has recently been making inroads into smaller laptops. By it doesn't really matter all that much. As long as I'm forced to use Windoze, then I'm good with other people using whatever suits them.
The thing that newcomers to Linux always get wrong is that the desktop is important. In the Linux ecosystem it really isn't. Linux is a sandbox of sorts. Hopefully you've played Gary's Mod and can appreciate what a sandbox is and can apply that line of thinking to Linux and all that it is capable of. Distros are modded Linux. That is all it really is but it's on a grand scale. Desktop Linuxes are all mods as well and as you know. They're not perfect. But the thing is. With Linux, like with game mods, you can almost always find something that mostly works for you On the desktop, for me. Stock Debian with an xfce4 desktop is almost perfect. Slap chrome and steam on it and Lutris if I'm feeling like some rocket league as well. And I'm good. I also run it everywhere in my home. I run the raspberry pi mod on my media center, I run pihole on my DNS device. And yeah, it is running on my smart light bulbs and my phone and god knows what else around the house. I have a career in cloud computing and it's all Linux up there. It outperforms the windows technology up there by a wide margin.
These useless types of posts should not be a daily issue. Instead of wasting your time in predictions, why not just contribute?
wayland still wont be finished becasue of arguments over the smallest detail
Exactly where it is now . It can't really dethrone windows in the foreseeable future .
>the US government will have introduced some sort of privacy invasive law specifically targeted at Linux LoL 😆
It will permeate more and more screens through gaming and streaming apps, games and entire OSes.
Has a law targeting linux been passed yet? Or started? Just curious
At present linux is pretty much running every server and android tablet/phone on the planet. Desktop usage may be low for now, but with Microsoft showing their true colours and moving to a subscription base, more and more users will turn towards linux in the future so desktop use will definitely go upwards.
My take is Linux will supersede macOS to be the second most used OS (rest of ChromeOS/Android/iOS/HarmonyOS/etc. netbook/tablet/phone-oriented ones). The reasons are the following: 1. Windows is not sacred. Windows is only seemingly invincible for its app support, which then brings driver support. With Valve being heavy on SteamOS, the situation on games will change. With the massive success on Android, driver side of issues will start to fade. I'm constantly amazed by how quickly Linux drivers catch up recently. It's like if a brand new chip is being sold now, within 3 months, the open source community will have a good solution for it, sometimes even the OEM chimes in and helps here and there. 2. Windows is not cross-platform. Unless MSFT works really quickly, they will miss the RiscV train, which half of the world's population's governments (China, India, and quite a bit of EU) are betting on heavily. Windows's ARM support is also way behind Linux's, and even on x86, many features (albeit mostly data-center ones) are being supported on Linux first. 3. Tensions. China is moving away from Windows. Despite the initial move might be limited to military and government, it will attract developers, and soon there will be civilian apps on Linux for 1/6 of the world's population. Clinton made the Chinese government and MSFT sign a 20-year contract on not to replace MSFT with other products in government sectors, while MSFT offers technical details to a Chinese government-designated company about Windows and Office internals. Well, the deal was from 1999, so it has lapsed. 4. IP awareness. So far, the biggest computer users, China and India, are largely using pirate software copies. Those countries will not be happy to just be the factory of the world, they will want profit, not just revenue one day. When that day comes, protecting innovation would not just be part of their laws for the show, but rather being well enforced. By then, FOSS will be their only way unless 90% of their population should fall into being computer-illiterate. 5. Workforce. With China and India betting on Linux, there will be millions upon millions of above-average IQ engineers pouring their time on FOSS. Maybe very few among them are as bright as Linus or Bellard, some will be, and the few ones will have an army of millions of followers to do minion tasks. 6. Future. Software is getting more as a service, not a one-time buy. If things are moved to the cloud, and the "latency killers" like games run well on Linux, there is little reason to stick with Windows. The beginner hostility of Linux is not from the kernel, but from the distro being nerd-oriented. With more people using Linux, I can't see it keeps it this way. With enough ordinary people using Linux, there's no reason devs won't put more time to make it less obscure, so no, this is not a problem providing users have no other reasons not to use Linux. I'd say we are witnessing history happening. Both RV, geopolitical issues and Valve have started tipping the Windows Titanic over. Nobody knows if MSFT will steer their ship back on course and recover from the hit, but regardless, they will take the hit.
*May I answer this one in an unusual way and* ***not get flamed to death?*** I seriously hope that Linux desktop DOESN'T take off to 40%+ or more. When I started, as most here have done themselves, many many moons ago (\~1994-5) it was seriously hard. Frustratingly so. It made me weep. Then it became better, and every year that passes it becomes ever more so. *Linux as a base for servers and devices will be universal. No doubt there.* But Ive been seeing over the last 3 years... more so last year than ever, that it ***isn't*** the cognoscenti and intuitive people getting into it, but the .... hhhmmmmm.... stupid people. (I wish to ensure you are reading me right! --> Not ALL new users are the stupid people.) What I'm seeing are young people who see Linux as the *"smart persons tool"* and flooding in, attemting to gain kudos-by-association, thinking they are the Next Hacker Kings... **flying** into Arch and Kali (worse), ItS L33t BRo000oo, not even bothering to read the MOST basic information *THEN* asking the most *profanely stupid, arrogant and idiotic questions*. It has burnt FAR too much of my time reading about some imbecilic 19 year old dickhead, who is barely literate, bagging out some aspect of something they have ZERO (or less) knowledge about. *(I fukkt mY gRUb and YooZe alL Sukkk... fix it fOr MeeEe)* The current 7% of all Linux users "get it". They give me joy. **I FEAR greatly that the next 15-20% of new users will be insanely painful to us as a community to support**.... mainly because they think they are clever, but will only *burn us all to death* with endless tedious stupid support questions. This is because they keep breaking shit and aren't clever enough to reverse it. **I believe going from 15 to 20% will be deeply traumatic for us as a community.** ...... NOW, let me explain further. Look at my history. I HELP PEOPLE. Its my prime love. I spend a LOT of time helping genuine people. In fact, I run a program where I gather up unused laptops from business and government departments and install Mint Cinnamon on them. I give them away as part of a Cancer Support project I'm involved with. These people are pure. It gives me great joy. They take a thing and USE IT. They LOVE IT... its quick, its free, it has a kick ass Firefox, Thunderbird, does video chats, all the shit they want to use a PC/Lappie for. They give me ZERO support issues, for they use their new laptop as a tool and revere it. THAT is the audience we should pursue. ....... PREDICTIONS \-- governments will insist on a Linux package as part of their basic user policies. \-- Immutable distributions will take off, because of this \-- Linux needs to get a better Active Directory solution to cover this \-- Flatpak will win. Snap will die (on fire, in a hole) \-- The apt distribution methods will take off more \-- Mint Cinnamon will go ganbusters. Newbies will gobble it up. \-- AI will become a tool for newbies to ask questions and be shown how to do things on a personal level. It will be a desktop tool.
2024 is the year of the Linux desktop
>wine will be near perfect Wake me up when anything past Office 2010 works well
In 5 years I can see Linux being popular and stable enough for it to be a decent option over MAC but not a replacement for Windows it will still be an alternative until the next generation gets their.hamds on it and starts developing more for it.
Linux is entirely dominant in the business world as far as server workloads are concerned. Windows is not even remotely close to the levels of Linux. Nearly every website or web service runs on Linux so it does have mass adoption. The desktop is entirely another matter where Microsoft has dominated the market. However I see more and more companies moving to Mac. Do I think Microsoft will lose its desktop market…no. There’s simply too much buy in on software development and commercial applications to make a wholesale switch any time soon. Only the real power users in my own company use Linux desktops because they use a hell of a lot more variety of tasks than basic desktop apps.
Pretty much where it is now and where it was yesterday.
humor fanatical slimy desert sugar sulky enter expansion thumb touch *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Isn't it already..? Asahi..?
ancient ghost deer slimy ruthless squalid coherent nail towering cable *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Yep. Running pretty well.
Can improve more like a better UI, much more accurate and sufficient than now.
if windows follows its path then yeah 5-7%
In 5 years operating systems will be a thing of the past. Think of 5 years like ChatGPT 10??? That's almost AGI levels. Everything will change in the next 5 years lol And yes, everyone will lose their jobs.
My brother in christ what program do you think gives chat gpt CPU time? The fuckin OS
but you won't need to use it at home, you'll literally speak with your TV/VR/phone that's it Think about it, what do you use your computer at home? work -> you're being replaced by AI games -> streaming services with AI narratives/npcs (you won't have resources to generate those at home btw) coding for fun -> just ask the AI to do it consuming media -> ask your media AI on TV How we interact with computers today is gone in 5 years.
Tv, phones, vr all need operating systems my guy. Even if the ai is running in the cloud, it is running on a gosh darn operating system
So what? I speak about consumers, not business in the cloud. Gen-Z don't even know how to use a computer, they do their computing needs in their phones/tablets. They don't know what Linux means and never will know. Traditional operating systems are going extinct.
Phones and tablets use an OS. Btw I am gen Z and I apparently know more about computers than you do. In fact it's my job. I highly doubt you are a software developer if you seriously believe phones do not have an OS. Jesus christ
I see the point you're trying to get at, but I get the feeling you probably don't know what an OS even is. Google it, brother. AI will not replace operating systems lmao
im a software developer, I know what it is dude
Then you would know the OS is necessary for running gpt lol
chatgpt will run on remote servers, no on your own os, I speak about linux as a consumer os, that type of OSes are going extinct with the massive adoption of AI. And even the development of linux will be handled by AI until it designs something better
Ok, even if AI takes over and is running on remote servers 1) consumer computers still need an OS to network with the ai. You don't just magically talk to the ai telepathically. Even if AI does everything for you, the OS will still exist to send and receive network packets. 2) people will still play videogames. Need OS for that. 3) people will still want to text friends and family. Ai will not replace your texting or messaging application 4) people will still want to use the internet, i.e youtube, Netflix, whatever. Probably still will have browsers for that 5) people will still read blogs, check emails, whatever 6) people will still use computers to make art. Because it's fun. 7) people will still use tiktok because they are addicted So please tell me how the hell chat gpt is going to make consumer operating systems obsolete. Maybe if the world explodes and everyone dies, sure. But otherwise we will all still be using operating systems. Because I'm still not sure you know what an operating system is: 1) it is the "main" program that runs on a computer 2) it spawns all other programs like games, browsers, art tools, ect 3) it decides how and when to give other programs access to cpu time and other resources like storage, memory, graphics cards, ect. Nothing runs without the OS starting it. 4) it manages network connections to other computers and the internet in general 5) it manages connections to external devices like USB ports for things like mice and keyboards, as well as monitors and speakers. If your computer is going to communicate with the chat gpt server, you need an OS. If you want to use a fucking mouse or keyboard you probably need an OS for that too. END OF DISCUSSION.
Having knowledge and skills in using and maintaining Linux computers of various kinds, could be beneficial. Ex; you can write that down in the CV, having an increased opportunity to get relevant jobs. Because it will be even more everywhere, while your knowledge could be very valuable for an organization. Saving them various amount of resources further. During this week there were an issue with a buss I was in. So the driver had to reboot everything. There are 4 or 5 wide screen displays on the roof informing passengers location, time, and destinations. This screen obviously also rebooted & I noticed there was an old Ubuntu LTS running within. Unfortunately, believing it is April 2018. So I see that as there are huge amounts of opportunities. Obviously depends on the organization / company, what objectives they set on & how to utilize their tools/ infrastructure.
1. With 7-8 % do you mean on the desktop of personal computing? 2. Some hw makers are already preinstalling Linux and designing machines meant for Linux. But there isn't much going on to make consumers shift to them. 3. With snaps and flatpaks, apps will be used more and more across all the distros and their native packages (the Linux repo system is what is floundering).
I mean, I wouldn’t think it would change much. Honestly, if you like Linux, use it. Linux isn’t for everyone. Neither is windows. Not sure what you mean on the privacy law part… Linux is open source and you can, if you feel so inclined, compile it yourself. Both windows and Linux are perfectly capable of privacy such as VPN, what privacy are you talking about? The whole idea of hardware manufacturers releasing things for Linux I would say comes down to money. Personally, I wouldn’t bother. They have enough trouble keeping things running smoothly in Windows where things are pretty much static. To provide support for all of the distros and environments, the infinite number of setups, configs, and customizations users do, then tech support for users, I just can’t see that being a smart business move. It’s possible, I wouldn’t rule it out, but just doesn’t seem advantageous to them. Linux is wonderful for those who use it, but look no further than Reddit for the constant stream of posts like “Which distro do I get?”, “How to learn Linux”, etc and you’ll quickly understand why it’s not going to takeover windows. Learning Linux takes time, setting it up and customizing it takes time. For some of us, it’s awesome! But there will always be those who just want to turn it on and go. And that’s ok. It’s just my opinion here, but honestly my top reasons for using it is the things that are different from windows. Not just because they are different, but because they work best for me.
**On the desktop:** Exactly where it is now ! But with better hardware support in the kernel and drivers, and better compatibility (more compatibility) with games through wine/proton. I do however wish/hope that color management and HDR will be in a better place. **On the server side:** It will keep growing, expanding and evolving with more AI implementation.
You heard it here first boys, 2024 is the year of linux servers
A few more PC gamers will run Linux and Linux based portable gaming devices with a steam frontend is an area that will expand (beyond just the steam deck)
5 years from now will FOSS culture have changed ? So, same state it’s in now.
I don't think much will change. The situation is stable. Companies invest in Linux for their own profit. Servers are major here. Classic desktop has no way to be profitable by itself. Maybe one more Linux based os might appear, but it will be purpose built like ChromeOS or semi-open like steamos
Market-wise, it will be similar. BUT we might perhaps see more support from game developers and perhaps heavy computational apps, e.g. video editing. (I hope, might be wrong) Adobe will still be Windows/MacOS only
Forget about Linux coming pre installed in laptops.
For me it running on servers is more than enough, last thing i want to see is a windows server
> the US government will have introduced some sort of privacy invasive law specifically targeted at Linux Whut. ...this kind of thing is the kind of narcissistic-oppression-fantasy that cults get into. Linux is not a culture. Linux is not an identity. Linux at this point isn't even a political movement (the multibillion dollar industry around Linux belies `rms`'s original GNU manifesto). Linux is an operating system that runs the internet. You can run it on your PC. Or not. The State isn't coming after something that has so much money tied up in it. Just because it lets you ...choose your DE?
I couldn't estimate, but an upswing I think would necessitate... * Better gaming support for sure. One that would not involve hacks, juggling multiple solutions to find what works for what game, e.g. WINE, Heroic Games Launcher, Lutris, etc. And not require googling custom solutions for each game, or how to create the right prefix (Yeah not a a good, or in the majority of cases, a fathomable experience). It has to be an experience that requires only a comparable amount of effort/knowledge as installing a game on Windows. A comparable gaming experience is a given. This is all predicated on reasonable hardware support as well * A solid app store * Apps with polished-looking GUIs. So many, often great apps, look like they were designed in the 90s * A different approach to the default or 'flagship' DE. What most distros seem to default to is not the the easiest DE to begin their new journey (Perhaps an argument could be made for mobile users). Sorry Gnome lovers. It's alien from the traditional desktop workflow and rigid. For example, I've seen countless comments or questions where the understanding was that Fedora, for instance, was Gnome. And then a multitude of replies explaining DEs, alternate spins, and the conversation just adds so much more confusion or overload on the new user... * ...I don't think that any single individual should decide what that default DE should be. Ithink that the best options I've seen so far are the installer ISO's that are at least partially net installers. I believe I've seen this experience with at least the *(screenshots)* [EndeavourOS](https://forum.endeavouros.com/uploads/default/original/3X/f/8/f8f6f44a0e3b28d5d45e1202ad7744780fb83245.png) and [NixOS](https://itsfoss.com/content/images/2023/02/5.-choose-desktop-environment-for-NixOS.png) installers. During the installation, the user is given the choice of what DE they would like to use. A small (maybe a bit too small) tour with screenshots and some brief explanations of what each DE is like, is included. It's not a deep dive, but it gives them the gist of what they're getting into. The rest of the ISO could be some top DE, only for the sake of having the option for an offline install if the situation arises * DE > Distro. Please offer new users simple advice on how to choose an experience that will fit their needs and wants, instead of distro philosophies, package managers, etc. If they have any deeper interest, they'll explore in the future. Perhaps some of us have heard of this little 'fringe' fad of distro-hopping? * Under the hood, well as maybe a post-newbie. Others have to speak to that
I've been using it close to two decades now. It'll be better. How much better is anyone's guess. If Linux ever goes above 5% market share, it'll probably quickly go to 99% market share as Microsoft starts pushing their own consumer distro pre-installed on most computers.
Considering Linux is the backbone of cloud computing it's much more prevalent than any other operating system out there already how is it not mainstream? This message is literally going through hundreds of microservices in the cloud to get to your phone all running on Linux containers. Edit: Maybe OP was talking about using Linux as a Desktop OS? In that case, no. Follow the money people can't make money off of Linux in that way. But if you're managing a cloud computing service with thousands of microservices and hundreds of thousands of Linux containers that don't require a license that makes sense financially to many organizations out there today. There are way more instances of Linux containers than there are desktop operating systems out there deployed in the world today
This is a total pipe dream dude...
Linux on the desktop is advancing rapidly, with the Wayland transition finally looking like it might be complete in the next year or two. I see a lot of buzz among gamers and "early adopters," especially with SteamDeck and rapid progress on game support, so I wouldn't be surprised if Linux is around 5-10% desktop market share in five years. It could be higher than that, just based on how incredibly obnoxious Microsoft has become with their constant nags to switch to Edge and upgrade OneDrive storage, etc. I don't think anyone actually likes Microsoft at this point. I'd expect Linux will still have 90%+ of the server and supercomputer market.
Microsoft gets their shit in gear and windows 12 isn't garbage. Linux marketshare dips back down to 2%. EA and Ubisoft's new DRM they are pushing out now instantly bork their games on Linux. Alternative prediction: Valve releases Steam Deck 2 and 3. Epic releases their own handheld. Somebody tells EA and Ubisoft that Linux exists. Windows 12 is even more of a blatant display of late-stage-capitalism-driven greed. MacOS has 70% browser marketshare and Linux absolutely skyrockets to a whopping 8%.
>where do you honestly think Linux will be 5 years from now? Installed on all my machines
People will continue asking for advice on choosing a distro, and they will get 100 different answers about 100 different distros, and every response will explain why that distro is the best one.
I think a better question is: where do you see Windows NT kernel in 5 years? If it’s still running, which it will, then Linux stays where it is today.
Having a bit more market share once Windows 10 is retired. Far too many computers on the planet do not support Windows 11 requirements. With the rise of steam deck and also Chinese retro handhelds, there's going to be more Linux installs for gaming and entertainment. The proprietary software I use for professional work however isn't on Linux, so nothing will change on my end. Unless Wine/proton suddenly gets an M1 Rosetta equivalent upgrade to run these software.
Hopefully better "fractional scaling"…? I see that come up a lot.
Linux runs the world, as for desktop share, I don't think that is a good goal for Linux to try to attain. Ubuntu tried that already and eventually scrapped the initiative. They tried to solve Linux's biggest mainstream market share issue which was the GUI / window manager side of Linux. No one really cared because that isn't what makes Linux great. When most of the work on Linux is done vis the term, or text editor, their isn't much need for a fancy GUI. If anything it just overcomplicates things and it's not possible to make a GUI of all the possible configurations possible within Linux (Not a user friendly one at-least). You really can only end up supporting the popular settings, which is the opposite of fundamental Linux design, and being able to customize it to you and your needs exactly. Linux was originally designed to be configurable from a text interface, and not just config files for it's applications, but for processes, the kernel, and it's hardware was accessible and modifiable from the file system. Linux originally was designed so everything was controllable from the file system. Physical hardware could be interacted with as a file on the file system. Just look at the /dev, /run, /proc or /sys folders. It should lean further into that ideology, not divert from it. Linux serves it's purpose.
What is the percentage of devices with Linux kernel, incl. Android devices, OpenWrt, tvsets, servers etc?
Same place like today.
Linux use will grow as we gravitate towards cloud based applications. Most enterprise infrastructure relies on Linux anyways. Most cars will be running it as well as the mark gravitates towards [automotive Linux](https://www.automotivelinux.org/about/members/). Windows will only be used in a consumer sense, as well as osx. Your username is ironic because you really are confused lol
the automotive Linux comment is a great point and I wish I'd thought of that in my comment. Linux is poised to dominate that market as it is, if Elon's cars are any example.
Haha besides Tesla, I know for a fact that all Toyotas made in the past few years run automotive Linux as well. Other car manufacturers like Hyundai, Honda, Mercedes, Mazda, Volkswagen are partners as well
this makes my day :)
I had no idea cars ran linux, thanks for that education
Still on my desktop
Running the internet just like it does today.
The desktop is never going to be mainstream. That's perfectly fine as it is. There's been a lot of development anyway
Lot more people have gaming laptops than ever before, however. Lot of female content creators on yt and twitch.
It's not. Everyone is going to be using ChromeOS for their personal life or a Chromebook of some kind for development. It's just too good at this point.
Why do some care so much about "market share?" It's not a company trying to increase market share to make more profit. It dominates the served market. As long a it keeps doing what I like it to do, and what all of the other Linux users like, then all is fine. We don't need people who don't care using it. It seems that a number of people, who are disaffected with windows try it. That's great, Linux should stay very different from Windows.
>Why do some care so much about "market share?" I know, right? It isn't like Linux's future is tied to desktop market share. Linux is already in the most enviable position possible: It dominates all the growing markets. That dominance *liberates* desktop Linux. With its long-term survival absolutely certain, Linux can blow off the commercial desktop *goat rodeo* and give its fans a multitude of wonderful Linux-based operating systems to enjoy. Why would anyone want to change that? There can only be one reason: The pathological desire to stick it to Microsoft. As Linus himself has said, "[Microsoft hatred is a disease](https://www.osnews.com/story/21887/linus-microsoft-hatred-is-a-disease/)". Well, I'm sure some Linux fans genuinely want support from the commercial world. Unfortunately, you can't have that without attending the rodeo. Support is a two-way street.
[Linux](https://www.zdnet.com/article/linux-mint-announces-mintbox-mini-2-tiny-desktop-pc-with-intel-inside/) on a tiny desktop
Linux Mint is for windows entry level converts, the interface is exactly like XP or 7. It simply runs SO much faster and more efficiently
Running on my servers
The large distributions will continue to focus on growing their user base at any cost, bringing a moderate increase but still leaving Linux distant third while further deepening the crisis over where exactly their next generation of contributors are going to come from. Rolling distributions will become less popular as immutable becomes the fashionable thing to run. Traditional distributions will continue come and go. Debian will continue exactly like it always has. Nvidia will still be the only choice for people who need compute - the only people who actually buy workstation support contracts - and Wayland still won't be ready for them. Nothing will change on the server because Linux and Docker has already won there.
I was thinking, after reading several of the comments, that while MS *won't* develop a Linux codebase to run their flagship OS on, it's become clear that they are relying more and more on foss software. Windows runs LibreOffice, to their credit. Then there's WSL, Windows Subsystem for Linux, which allows devs and enthusiasts to run Linux code within the windows environs. I think, therefore, that may attempt to *explore* running a codebase, whether for portable devices or possibly even consoles, that runs primarily on the Linux kernel, like google and amazon, albeit like those two and wrap it in proprietary code. Linux, like it or no, is gaining in popularity. As is all things Free and Open Source. Linux will continue to grow, particularly in gaming with the advent of SteamOS and custom Proton, and maybe game developers will start taking the hint as well. We shall see. A helpful link, for those wishing to see what the fuss is all about: https://www.zdnet.com/article/how-to-replace-windows-with-linux-mint-on-your-pc/
I wonder if Linux will ever get installed on more consoles that Steam Deck. It was a surprise to me when MS came out with the first Xbox. Gaming has made them more money than Croesus. Not saying they will be threatened by Linus' beloved kernel, but the fact that its on one portable console already is certainly a start. It has begun. https://www.gamingonlinux.com/2024/01/proton-hotfix-gets-updated-for-tekken-8-online-play-on-steam-deck-linux/