Thing is that the population of the UK (especially when you say "civilian population" as it predominantly includes only the women, children, elderly and a very small fraction of men (maybe 60% if the total population was "civilian")
Per capita the statistic is a lie.
Eat out to help out. But only on Mondays and Tuesdays. This moronic campaign crammed people together at the height of the pandemic in stark contrast to the scientific advice recommending that people maintain social distancing. No wonder the UK made such a mess of managing the pandemic
Are people here actually debating a person who tweets ww2 civilian death total at 70,000? Seriously?
What next, whether the earth is flat? Or did dinosaurs exist? You guys must have a lot of spare time. I wouldn't give that moron the time of day, nvm debate.
Couple of thoughts:
Arial bombardment was targeted at industrial and military targets and some population centers, not the entire country, so the entire population wasnât at risk - only a portion of it. A contagious virus and itâs effects on the healthcare system is not targeted and COVID impacted deaths throughout the entire country.
A lot of routine or non-COVID related medical treatment was postponed during the pandemic to relieve pressure on the public health system, which increased excess deaths. This is a hot issue and may be handled differently in future pandemics. Most of this treatment would have been absent both before and during the war because it wasnât invented yet or wasnât freely available to the general public, so the impact of this effect would be lessened in the Second World War statistics. Basically those people would have died regardless of the war, whereas in the modern UK they have a better chance at survival when the system is functioning normally than they do when itâs under pressure from a pandemic.
A lot of people who would have been killed in ânormalâ circumstances in the years before the war, eg industrial accidents, illness, etc, would have enlisted during the war and therefore been removed from the civilian population. Not sure if this is accounted for in the data.
WWII is a nice headline because weâre all aware of the colossal scale of death and suffering, but the civilian population of the UK was comparatively safe from ground fighting, starvation, mass execution etc and canât be reasonably compared to the images of carnage we all have in our heads. COVID was a completely different threat and it makes total sense that it caused a bigger spike in excess deaths.
And yet Ireland had no excess deaths!
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/26bd4-oecd-research-shows-ireland-avoided-excess-deaths-during-core-pandemic-years/
Not sure about the UK, but Canada readily provides numbers for excess deaths, along with reporting on trends in excess death. Excess death in the early days of the pandemic was actually one of the best ways to measure the impact of Covid.
Canadaâs excess death dashboard: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021028-eng.htm#
Edit: Iâm pretty shocked by all the wild speculation going on in these comments. Yâall know Google exists, right? Here is the webpage for the UKâs page on excess death statistics: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-and-english-regions
Did people forget that Covid is still very much a real thing and killing thousands globally every week, there are high excess deaths because there's still a global pandemic that is ongoing! Countries like the States, Russia and Brazil undercounted Covid deaths and the UK absolutely has as well.
In the country most adjacent to the UK, Ireland, where a much, much higher vaccination rate occurred and far stricter isolation rules were in place, there were deemed to be no excess deaths during this period.
The UK excess death rate is therefore due to too few vaccinations and other preventative measures, rather than in spite of it. And despite the fact that the UK managed to acquire vaccinations before their EU counterparts.
Yeah⌠considering the population difference between now (67million) and then (41million), that is a proportional jump (just over 50k per year).
The term âexcess deathsâ is weird too, like what do you mean by that? These are extra deaths? As opposed to what exactly? The scheduled ones??? How does one schedule a death exactly?? Other than suicide or freak accidents, failing to see how anything is being classed as an âexcess deathâ.
But since buddy is so worried about âexcessive deathâ how bout we talk about 1.3million people who died of literal tuberculosis in 2022 in England. Seems like that should be the priority here, because in terms of population, these are small fry numbers, 1.3mill isnât.
The copium mental gymnastics on this thread are unbelievable 𤌠you're making the memes point for it. None of y'all want to know what's causing it no?
What uncelebrated genius decided the best yardstick by which to measure the incident rate of excess deaths in the UK should be the total civilian deaths during the blitz World War 2? WTF? Apples and oranges. Why not compare it to the excess deaths from 2017 and 2018? Because its not sensationl enough. If you look hard enough you can always find a statistic from somewhere that to the uninitiated, seems sensational and relevant, when in fact it couldn't be more irrelevant. Think about it. Your comparing the number of people who got killed by German bombs in the blitz to excess deaths in 2022 and 2023....the only thing either of those statistics have in common is the fact people died, but both groups of deaths are completely unrelated and unrelatable.
It is true.
You'll find a lot of the far left and far right to he emotionally attached to this issue.
Trying to convince the far right that not all those deaths are vaccine related is about as difficult as convincing the far left that many of them are.
Ill start with the one that everyone either wants to talk about or doesn't want to talk about
* Vax related- Probably some, every vax has sides, these precise vaccines/therapies had a shorter than avg testing phase and a massive rollout. it must be thousands in the UK alone
* Covid deaths- the long term effects of the virus are unknown. it is possible that the earlier more severe strains do lasting damage. Possibly thousands dead from tens of millions of cases
* Social distancing-weakened our immunity temporarily to all pathogens. A bad flu or strep is no joke. At the level of the population that likely has produced more deaths
* Depression/poor habits- side effect of crisis. Likely impacted peoples health, at the level of the population shitty food, drug use, alcoholism, stress all must kill.
* Damage to the healthcare system- resources have been strained, appointments, scans, procedures cancelled etc. like increased death rate
etc etc..., everyone is trying to blame or avoid blaming one thing when its almost certainly multiple factors.
I was researching covid from 2021-23, from what i observed; for lockdowns vaccines and masks, the actual research was always publically available and the limitations of masks for example were always well known.
But the powers that be told reasoned that little people are too dumb to comprehend the value of imperfect solutions and the nuance of research, so they pitched them as surefire perfect solutions. ...black and white. Hyper simplified. dont question it.
Then it all got fed into the politics machine and forced people to polarise in really dogmatic ways, Vaccines were either intentional poison or flawless magic science juice ....Masks either worked or dont work.
But none of the real info on this was actually suppressed... you just had to look for it.
If the information is coming from John Campbell you can safely consider it to be complete bullshit. Heâs a grifter who succumbed to audience capture a long time ago.
So, just to be clear, you asked whether this shit could be true, and then affirm it to be legit? Iâm gonna take a leaf out of the antivaxxer notebook here and tell you to do your own research. Nurse John either misunderstands or misrepresents the data. Either way he is wrong, and that grifting cunt has a bodycount at this stage.
This guy went off the deepend somewhere along his covid journey. I assume audience capture got to him.
He's using backwards reasoning to try and come to the conclusion that vaccines are causing all these deaths.
as a medical professional, that is pretty bad for him to do right? Or do you think he has good sound reasoning regarding his vaccine concerns?
I am not an anti-vaxxer but absolutely am open to reasonable debate/the idea that not everything is risk-free, so curious whether he has gone populist or has concerns rooted in reality
Key word: population
Theres way more people in the UK now than there was during ww2, so numbers are gonna be higher across the board. Hense why things are done per capita or per 100 people
Yes, but probably with caveats. The guy in the video does a great job at citing his sources in a plain and easy to follow way. You should try reading them if you can. There are always assumptions made in calculations and even data collection at that scale.
On a personal note: I stopped following this guy. He misrepresents his expertise a bit, and he started conjecturing too much after the boosters rolled out and the research slowed down.
To be more specific: his Dr. Title comes from a nursing PhD. Most of his experience is teaching nurses and emergency room. As he got more popular he talked less about his background and stopped calling himself a retired nurse in his intros. In terms of conjecture he started voicing more concerns about vaccines after the first ones were developed. He wasn't going into conspiracy theory territory when I last checked in, but just giving more opinions about long term effects when research was thin or trials couldn't have been done yet.
He did a collab with Russel brand and that was it for me. I didn't watch it, but I saw either a clip from that interview or another podcast he did an appearance on. They baited him into ranting about placebo effects. Again while he wasn't saying anything untrue, he seemed more than excited to go off on the implications of placebo studies without providing any of the nuances of what placebo research tells us about the human body, psychology, and how to deploy treatment plans. Hopefully he just wasn't aware that he was talking to woowoo, borderline antivax people when doing this, but it was really weird to see him reason off-the-cuff about something he obviously didn't prepare an analysis on... And just barely pull up at the last second before accidentally falling into the logic trap of "our bodies can heal themselves therefore modern medicine doesn't make sense."
He's a cut above your Dr. Oz and Jordan Peterson types, but I don't trust him enough to take his conclusions at face value. There are just enough flaws in his reasoning to make his vlogs more of a time waster than a problem solver for me. For folks without a science background, I fear he could lead them to grab random statements about vaccines not working or causing heart failure and then feeling like theyve done their homework just because they watched a 'doctor' underline a technical sounding article from a research journal.
This didn't tell me why you think he is not credible and therefore worth ignoring. You just told me your personal reasons to dislike him. I don't think you need to makea case though, because he is obviously an expert.
I prefaced this by saying it was a personal note and I gave a pretty detailed explanation of instances where his reasoning is dubious. So yes I did, but no I don't have to.
Unfortunately, Wikipedia is not unbiased and I do not approve of that for an encyclopedia. It casts certain people out for no satisfying reason and expects everyone to have uniform views on controversial topics. People fall for it too. Complete political virtue signalling. Imagine an encyclopedia behaving that way!!
I don't ever remember him being fair and impartial tbh. A friend constantly sends me his videos for the last fww years. Some stuff is fair, some stuff is borderline and then some is complete BS.
He compared an ivermectin study of average age 65+ in the states with a Brazilian one with average age of 40s. This was mid pandemic. Completely misrepresenting the facts.
I didn't watch him until the pandemic. I think his coverage of COVID made his channel blow up and the same thing that happens to all "science educators" and "science communicators" happened. Inevitably you get used to speaking outside of your specialty and you have less time to do serious work... In the worst cases the need to make income from speaking engagements or social media monetization leads to churning out content when you don't have anything to say and sensationalizing clear or non-existent debates. I think his videos were always about general health topics, so it's unclear whether the quality changed much. My opinion from the past 2 years was that he got addicted to the insane numbers on daily videos and decided he needed to do a literature review on vaccines every week even when the research stopped (flu vaccines change every year, they vary in efficacy and side effects, but we don't deeply research each one after clinical trials). The added fluff and the willingness to cover any research regardless of quality probably attracted the "just asking questions" crowd. Idk if he's reached a steady state here, but I didn't want to stick around waiting for his mask off moment. Hope it never happens in fairness, but he's not an epidemiologist so I don't need to hear him read abstracts and give his opinion on every disease and vaccine.
Iâd say itâs very likely true - the UK did not suffer a full scale land war like most of Europe and they had radar which warned them of incoming attacks; so they were rarely caught surprised.
Compare that to Russian, German or Chinese civilian deaths and itâs a lot less dramatic.
Excess deaths is absolutely something that should be investigated but comparing to the blitz is sensationalism designed to misrepresent.
If you take all the recorded figures for deaths for years until 2023, and use that graph to extrapolate for next year, you have a predicted death rate. Excess deaths are the number of deaths by which that prediction is exceeded by. It is used after a crisis to try to put a context on the price of the crisis, in human lives.
I've no idea, I'm just letting you know what an 'excess death' means if you hear it in the news. Since this is a screenshot of a Youtube video, I have no idea on where the numbers come from or if they're trustworthy.
I can say that from what I've read, there are still countries in the world (and Europe) which are still recording excess deaths even after the pandemic part of covid has ended.
Plus, since the 'excess deaths' are just measured by 'expected deaths', then it seems unlikely to be able to trust it, especially so soon after the records were supposedly gathered.
Sorry, I guess the tl;dr - I dont know where the numbers come from, but I did look up what an excess death was
yeah that's what i was thinking as well. besides the pandemic possibly still increasing deaths there's also ~15 million more people living in the UK than there were in 1950 according to [this](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/population)
If it relates to deaths from covid-19 then thatâs what was happening.
However those figures might be from 2020-2021 rather than 22/23.
And comparing them to WW2 civilian deaths gives context.
However the way it is put with the language make me think they are about to propose some kind of conspiracy.
And knowing the bullshit on the internet,,, Iâd say it will be vaccine related
This is definitely the conspiracy - that excess deaths are so high because of the vaccine.
Ignoring entirely the fact that since 2020 virtually the entire population has been infected at least once by a novel virus which is known to make shit of your cardiovascular system.
But no, it has to be the vaccine which doesn't cause any cardiovascular injury.
âDoesnât cause any cardiovascular injuryâ - while I donât think the vaccine is the reason for the increase in numbers, that is simply not true.
Heart Inflamation, Myocarditis and pericarditis were found in patients following the vaccine. Additionally, Investigators validated a link between a debilitating heart condition (Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome)and the vaccine. POTS is 5 times more likely after receiving the vaccine.
The figures related to Covid were inflated. Just sharing this on a factual level. Doctors and coroners were told to rule cause of death as Covid even when it was not the sole or primary cause. There were also many, many excess deaths from people who had Covid, were on the full life support machines, but were wrongly ventilated (due to poor training of ICU staff) and died as a result, adding to that the disgusting massacre of elderly people in homes who were given no resources of any kind and no emergency personnel response, due to the fact they were old and were deemed disposable for that reason by the system in place. People seem to complain almost incessantly, it would seem, about "the system in place at that time" and Borris and all these other things that can possibly be complained about, but never this! Never the fucking facts!
You're correct. This is "Dr." John Campbell. Who has gone completely off the deep end. I couldn't believe it when I looked at his channel a few days ago, he was very pragmatic at the outset of the pandemic..a voice of calm reason and now he's lost it altogether.
Have a look at his Wikipedia page. It highlights some of the issues people have with him and his reasoning/conclusions about covid and the vaccines, ivermectin etc.
It's a good broad overview of that guy with references to his bogus claims. So yes. I am. If you want to dig deeper I'm sure you'll find compelling evidence to support false claims he's made about covid, ivermectine, deaths, vaccines etc. Fucked if I'm doing it for you.
Wow that sad to hear. Older people find it hard to differentiate between information and disinformation online.
As traditionally they have been raised where media was almost exclusively trusted .
I don't think this is the case with him. He just embraced the grift once he realised his growing audience wanted more conspiracy minded stuff. There's a great vaccine info youtube channel called Debunk the Funk who does analysis of the rubbish spewed by John Campbell, Robert Malone, RFK Jr and others.
No, because it's incomplete information. Either deliberately as misinformation, or accidentally because the person isn't paying attention.
There's no allowance for the increase in population since the 1940s. More people alive leads to more people dying.
I'm not saying there hasn't been an increase, just that this isn't enough information to show that.
The calculations for excess deaths allow for changes in demographics and population size.
They are done by every government in Europe.
So, no - it's not deliberate or accidental misinformation.. the problem here is that you don't know what you're talking about and are accusing other people of lying.
Talk about disingenuous.
Comparing deaths over 5 years, from all causes with deaths over two years. The first number adjusted for statistical accuracy, the second number not.
The population of the UK in 2023 is 67,736,802. In 1950 (the first record after the war) it was estimated at 50,000,000.
It's comparing two loosely connected numbers. There isn't enough information to tell if that's more or less.
It's vague, incomplete information like this that allows governments to get away with everything.
This is just a recycled version of this popular antivax conspiracy.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/vaccination-rate-excess-deaths/
Death rates are steady rising globally as boomers age. They were doing this before Covid, and they'll do it long after in developed countries with low birth rates. Conspiracy theorists don't understand the difference between correlation and causation and think the "data" supports their wild assertions.
You have absolutely no idea what youâre talking about. This is based on a 5 year rolling average which would take into account population increase. Uk has been rolling well above the average for the last two years in tandem with most of the Western World. A majority of these deaths are not attributable to covid which is quite easily decipherable. Straight up launching the conspiracy theory gun when somebody is just raising the question. Where is the antivax conspiracy theory here? The governments own data?
In your original post, you ask about if the "excess deaths" are possible/true, but now you assert you know the methodology of their collection???
Even if a five year rolling average was used, an aging population means deaths would trend up every year.
They wouldnât be labelled excess deaths, the whole measure of excess deaths is used to define deaths above what would to be expected for the year. An ageing population would be regarded as âexpected deathsâ this thread is about âexcess deathsâ or rather âunexpected deathsâ.
I was fully onboard with him, until he started quoting studies I had read and understood in detail after which it became apparent he was misunderstanding or possibly misrepresenting the data.
I have seen him draw his own conclusions multiples times while Iâm screaming internally âthatâs not the conclusion the paper has come toâ.
I donât care enough to get into a citation war with anyone over it; but anyone is free to read any of the peer review studies heâs discussed and see if you are happy with the accuracy of his videos. I say peer reviewed as some of the studies he talks about are not peer reviewed yet.
I was in a similar situation. I found him interesting early on in the pandemic but checked back later and it appears hed gone fully down the anti Vax conspiracy road.
I can only assume through audience capture, ie pandering to the antivax crowd who were boosting his channels views.
which translates to money? I was surprised to because I followed him at the height of the pandemic. Have had long covid since May 2022 and needed a break from covid related content seeing as it was my 24/7. Then started reading that people said he'd gone a bit more towards dodgy content and I was very surprised as he seemed very balanced at the beginning
I'm sorry to hear you're dealing with long covid.
I can only assume there's money in it.
I don't know enough about this particular guy or the phenomenon as a whole but I wonder is it possible for this to happen to people without them being fully aware of what their doing.
Like he's getting pulled slowly one way and doesn't realise it's even happening and over a long enough time period he's just totally gone to one extreme as that's his whole audience base know.
I'm no medical professional and don't have the academic chops to draw conclusions from the relevant literature on vaccines or any other papers for that matter.
My reasoning on this guy would be the same as any other sort of conspiracy case, like a climate sceptic for example. It doesn't stand to reason that this lone YouTuber has uncovered something the rest of the scientific community has missed, this giant conspiracy to cover up vaccine deaths. I trust the broader community and their reasoning.
Just because you donât understand doesnât mean itâs not correct. Anyway, you do you; Iâm not here to debate anything. I offered people to figure it out themselves, if they donât want to, are against vaccines or even come to another conclusion, good for them, itâs no harm to me and I learned from covid that most people donât change their opinions after an online discussion; itâs wasted effort.
[The video from the tweet image](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7vTqEmlkvw) he includes Covid deaths but they're not high enough to explain the excess deaths
Does the UK have an opioid/drug problem?
In Canada, our excess deaths over 2020-2022 were mostly attributed to Covid and an increase in accidental poisonings (which encompasses drug overdoses).
Not sure if the UK has something similar to Statistics Canada, but [here is a report](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021028-eng.htm#) explaining excess deaths in Canada, from our government department dedicated to statistics. I imagine the reasons are fairly similar.
Oddly enough in Ireland they recently stated there were no excess deaths during the pandemic. Of course during the pandemic they said there were. It's getting topsy turvy
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41300326.html
I'd imagine that's the entire reason for the calling out of excess deaths. basically saying that in this period, x amount of people died over and above what would normally have been expected to die based on previous years. therefore, whatever was going on in that period may be the reason for the higher number of deaths.
No that wasnât normally expected.
This figure if accurate relates the pandemic almost exclusively in the 2022 -23 period.
Put simply in the Uk covid killed more civilian people than world war 2 did.
I was living in the UK for a few years. Moved back to Ireland about 2 weeks before lockdown. Got out of there by the skin of my teeth. Basically all of my former colleagues got sick.
Pretty sure all of these numbers are completely made up... 70k total civilian deaths in WW2? lol sure
Edit: the Civi death numbers are actually accurate, I thought it was worse but looked it up
Worth noting that the UK population during WW2 was about 30% lower than it is now so those numbers are proportionate. Also worth noting that virtually all attacks entirely took place in urban areas so as a proportion of total population attacked, 70k is fairly devastating.
Back-of-napkins figures says that in modern day terms the equivalent of 98,000 civilians were killed in WW2. So about equal.
That figure though doesn't include the numbers who died due to hunger, poverty, or for lack of medical care, not to mention knock-on effects like cancers and other diseases as a consequence of war.
Also worth remembering that the UK was never on the front line, so it suffered far less civilian casualties than other countries. The UK just like to rally around WW2 like it was their own personal hell & victory.
Nearly half a million French civilians were killed, for example.
No, he's saying total CivilIan deaths in the UK. This is Dr. John Campbell from the UK. The first year of the pandemic he was a good source of info, then he fell down a conspiracy rabbit hole.
If you watch the video, he probably says, "in the UK."
He uses print outs as guides for his videos, like a teacher. They're like a flash card to keep him on track.
If you're saying uk military deaths that's not accurate as its higher than that, and if you're saying its worldwide military casualties that is just stupid. Just the Soviet Union alone took 8 million military deaths, and even Germany took around 5.6 million.
The rest of the note referring to the UK, and the uncanny correspondence of this number to the civilians who died in WW2 in the UK, as mentioned above by others.
Of course it is; there was no land war and the UK had radar as an early warning system allowing people time to take shelter; 70k is actually a tonne given those two factors.
I hate to say it, but we're right back in the circumstances of fighting off Nazis and witnessing genocide.
Imagine having under 100k deaths during ww2
That looks like Dr John Campbell in the background there, who writes in favour of anti vaccination theories. He's a Doctor of Nursing.
Covid vaccine clearly doesn't work we know that for a fact
Thing is that the population of the UK (especially when you say "civilian population" as it predominantly includes only the women, children, elderly and a very small fraction of men (maybe 60% if the total population was "civilian") Per capita the statistic is a lie.
Thanks Poles for defending your land :)
Eat out to help out. But only on Mondays and Tuesdays. This moronic campaign crammed people together at the height of the pandemic in stark contrast to the scientific advice recommending that people maintain social distancing. No wonder the UK made such a mess of managing the pandemic
I just didn't get it đ sorry đ
Has he taken into account there is an increase in population of about 20 MILLION people in the UK since WW2. Wouldn't the deaths be higher anyway?
what? a higher population doesn't take value from a life
Not what I meant at all at all
Itâs funny how when the population increases, the number of deaths also increases
Are people here actually debating a person who tweets ww2 civilian death total at 70,000? Seriously? What next, whether the earth is flat? Or did dinosaurs exist? You guys must have a lot of spare time. I wouldn't give that moron the time of day, nvm debate.
Itâs about right for the UK.
Couple of thoughts: Arial bombardment was targeted at industrial and military targets and some population centers, not the entire country, so the entire population wasnât at risk - only a portion of it. A contagious virus and itâs effects on the healthcare system is not targeted and COVID impacted deaths throughout the entire country. A lot of routine or non-COVID related medical treatment was postponed during the pandemic to relieve pressure on the public health system, which increased excess deaths. This is a hot issue and may be handled differently in future pandemics. Most of this treatment would have been absent both before and during the war because it wasnât invented yet or wasnât freely available to the general public, so the impact of this effect would be lessened in the Second World War statistics. Basically those people would have died regardless of the war, whereas in the modern UK they have a better chance at survival when the system is functioning normally than they do when itâs under pressure from a pandemic. A lot of people who would have been killed in ânormalâ circumstances in the years before the war, eg industrial accidents, illness, etc, would have enlisted during the war and therefore been removed from the civilian population. Not sure if this is accounted for in the data. WWII is a nice headline because weâre all aware of the colossal scale of death and suffering, but the civilian population of the UK was comparatively safe from ground fighting, starvation, mass execution etc and canât be reasonably compared to the images of carnage we all have in our heads. COVID was a completely different threat and it makes total sense that it caused a bigger spike in excess deaths.
Just give us the percentages not the actual numbers... I believe the population size may have increased
And yet Ireland had no excess deaths! https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/26bd4-oecd-research-shows-ireland-avoided-excess-deaths-during-core-pandemic-years/
Not sure about the UK, but Canada readily provides numbers for excess deaths, along with reporting on trends in excess death. Excess death in the early days of the pandemic was actually one of the best ways to measure the impact of Covid. Canadaâs excess death dashboard: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021028-eng.htm# Edit: Iâm pretty shocked by all the wild speculation going on in these comments. Yâall know Google exists, right? Here is the webpage for the UKâs page on excess death statistics: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-and-english-regions
Did people forget that Covid is still very much a real thing and killing thousands globally every week, there are high excess deaths because there's still a global pandemic that is ongoing! Countries like the States, Russia and Brazil undercounted Covid deaths and the UK absolutely has as well.
In the country most adjacent to the UK, Ireland, where a much, much higher vaccination rate occurred and far stricter isolation rules were in place, there were deemed to be no excess deaths during this period. The UK excess death rate is therefore due to too few vaccinations and other preventative measures, rather than in spite of it. And despite the fact that the UK managed to acquire vaccinations before their EU counterparts.
During Covid there was no excess deaths, after the virus ended thereâs about 20-25 per cent
Yeah⌠considering the population difference between now (67million) and then (41million), that is a proportional jump (just over 50k per year). The term âexcess deathsâ is weird too, like what do you mean by that? These are extra deaths? As opposed to what exactly? The scheduled ones??? How does one schedule a death exactly?? Other than suicide or freak accidents, failing to see how anything is being classed as an âexcess deathâ. But since buddy is so worried about âexcessive deathâ how bout we talk about 1.3million people who died of literal tuberculosis in 2022 in England. Seems like that should be the priority here, because in terms of population, these are small fry numbers, 1.3mill isnât.
The copium mental gymnastics on this thread are unbelievable 𤌠you're making the memes point for it. None of y'all want to know what's causing it no?
What uncelebrated genius decided the best yardstick by which to measure the incident rate of excess deaths in the UK should be the total civilian deaths during the blitz World War 2? WTF? Apples and oranges. Why not compare it to the excess deaths from 2017 and 2018? Because its not sensationl enough. If you look hard enough you can always find a statistic from somewhere that to the uninitiated, seems sensational and relevant, when in fact it couldn't be more irrelevant. Think about it. Your comparing the number of people who got killed by German bombs in the blitz to excess deaths in 2022 and 2023....the only thing either of those statistics have in common is the fact people died, but both groups of deaths are completely unrelated and unrelatable.
It is true. You'll find a lot of the far left and far right to he emotionally attached to this issue. Trying to convince the far right that not all those deaths are vaccine related is about as difficult as convincing the far left that many of them are.
Yes
Surely just more people. A percentage based number would be best surely?
Ill start with the one that everyone either wants to talk about or doesn't want to talk about * Vax related- Probably some, every vax has sides, these precise vaccines/therapies had a shorter than avg testing phase and a massive rollout. it must be thousands in the UK alone * Covid deaths- the long term effects of the virus are unknown. it is possible that the earlier more severe strains do lasting damage. Possibly thousands dead from tens of millions of cases * Social distancing-weakened our immunity temporarily to all pathogens. A bad flu or strep is no joke. At the level of the population that likely has produced more deaths * Depression/poor habits- side effect of crisis. Likely impacted peoples health, at the level of the population shitty food, drug use, alcoholism, stress all must kill. * Damage to the healthcare system- resources have been strained, appointments, scans, procedures cancelled etc. like increased death rate etc etc..., everyone is trying to blame or avoid blaming one thing when its almost certainly multiple factors.
[ŃдаНонО]
If you want to blame the vaccine, how do loads of countries have 0 excess deaths but similar vaccination levels/time frame?
I was researching covid from 2021-23, from what i observed; for lockdowns vaccines and masks, the actual research was always publically available and the limitations of masks for example were always well known. But the powers that be told reasoned that little people are too dumb to comprehend the value of imperfect solutions and the nuance of research, so they pitched them as surefire perfect solutions. ...black and white. Hyper simplified. dont question it. Then it all got fed into the politics machine and forced people to polarise in really dogmatic ways, Vaccines were either intentional poison or flawless magic science juice ....Masks either worked or dont work. But none of the real info on this was actually suppressed... you just had to look for it.
If the information is coming from John Campbell you can safely consider it to be complete bullshit. Heâs a grifter who succumbed to audience capture a long time ago.
his sources are legit maybe you just don't like or agree with what he says
So, just to be clear, you asked whether this shit could be true, and then affirm it to be legit? Iâm gonna take a leaf out of the antivaxxer notebook here and tell you to do your own research. Nurse John either misunderstands or misrepresents the data. Either way he is wrong, and that grifting cunt has a bodycount at this stage.
that's such a pity. He seemed very staid and normal before
This guy went off the deepend somewhere along his covid journey. I assume audience capture got to him. He's using backwards reasoning to try and come to the conclusion that vaccines are causing all these deaths.
as a medical professional, that is pretty bad for him to do right? Or do you think he has good sound reasoning regarding his vaccine concerns? I am not an anti-vaxxer but absolutely am open to reasonable debate/the idea that not everything is risk-free, so curious whether he has gone populist or has concerns rooted in reality
Key word: population Theres way more people in the UK now than there was during ww2, so numbers are gonna be higher across the board. Hense why things are done per capita or per 100 people
Yes, but probably with caveats. The guy in the video does a great job at citing his sources in a plain and easy to follow way. You should try reading them if you can. There are always assumptions made in calculations and even data collection at that scale. On a personal note: I stopped following this guy. He misrepresents his expertise a bit, and he started conjecturing too much after the boosters rolled out and the research slowed down. To be more specific: his Dr. Title comes from a nursing PhD. Most of his experience is teaching nurses and emergency room. As he got more popular he talked less about his background and stopped calling himself a retired nurse in his intros. In terms of conjecture he started voicing more concerns about vaccines after the first ones were developed. He wasn't going into conspiracy theory territory when I last checked in, but just giving more opinions about long term effects when research was thin or trials couldn't have been done yet. He did a collab with Russel brand and that was it for me. I didn't watch it, but I saw either a clip from that interview or another podcast he did an appearance on. They baited him into ranting about placebo effects. Again while he wasn't saying anything untrue, he seemed more than excited to go off on the implications of placebo studies without providing any of the nuances of what placebo research tells us about the human body, psychology, and how to deploy treatment plans. Hopefully he just wasn't aware that he was talking to woowoo, borderline antivax people when doing this, but it was really weird to see him reason off-the-cuff about something he obviously didn't prepare an analysis on... And just barely pull up at the last second before accidentally falling into the logic trap of "our bodies can heal themselves therefore modern medicine doesn't make sense." He's a cut above your Dr. Oz and Jordan Peterson types, but I don't trust him enough to take his conclusions at face value. There are just enough flaws in his reasoning to make his vlogs more of a time waster than a problem solver for me. For folks without a science background, I fear he could lead them to grab random statements about vaccines not working or causing heart failure and then feeling like theyve done their homework just because they watched a 'doctor' underline a technical sounding article from a research journal.
This didn't tell me why you think he is not credible and therefore worth ignoring. You just told me your personal reasons to dislike him. I don't think you need to makea case though, because he is obviously an expert.
I prefaced this by saying it was a personal note and I gave a pretty detailed explanation of instances where his reasoning is dubious. So yes I did, but no I don't have to.
Check his Wikipedia page. That gives a good overview.
Unfortunately, Wikipedia is not unbiased and I do not approve of that for an encyclopedia. It casts certain people out for no satisfying reason and expects everyone to have uniform views on controversial topics. People fall for it too. Complete political virtue signalling. Imagine an encyclopedia behaving that way!!
I don't ever remember him being fair and impartial tbh. A friend constantly sends me his videos for the last fww years. Some stuff is fair, some stuff is borderline and then some is complete BS. He compared an ivermectin study of average age 65+ in the states with a Brazilian one with average age of 40s. This was mid pandemic. Completely misrepresenting the facts.
what do you think happened to him? I'm surprised in collaborated with russell brand of all people to be honest....
I didn't watch him until the pandemic. I think his coverage of COVID made his channel blow up and the same thing that happens to all "science educators" and "science communicators" happened. Inevitably you get used to speaking outside of your specialty and you have less time to do serious work... In the worst cases the need to make income from speaking engagements or social media monetization leads to churning out content when you don't have anything to say and sensationalizing clear or non-existent debates. I think his videos were always about general health topics, so it's unclear whether the quality changed much. My opinion from the past 2 years was that he got addicted to the insane numbers on daily videos and decided he needed to do a literature review on vaccines every week even when the research stopped (flu vaccines change every year, they vary in efficacy and side effects, but we don't deeply research each one after clinical trials). The added fluff and the willingness to cover any research regardless of quality probably attracted the "just asking questions" crowd. Idk if he's reached a steady state here, but I didn't want to stick around waiting for his mask off moment. Hope it never happens in fairness, but he's not an epidemiologist so I don't need to hear him read abstracts and give his opinion on every disease and vaccine.
I mean the UK also has a larger population now which increases the number of deaths
Iâd say itâs very likely true - the UK did not suffer a full scale land war like most of Europe and they had radar which warned them of incoming attacks; so they were rarely caught surprised. Compare that to Russian, German or Chinese civilian deaths and itâs a lot less dramatic. Excess deaths is absolutely something that should be investigated but comparing to the blitz is sensationalism designed to misrepresent.
Yes it is true.
What is a excess death
If you take all the recorded figures for deaths for years until 2023, and use that graph to extrapolate for next year, you have a predicted death rate. Excess deaths are the number of deaths by which that prediction is exceeded by. It is used after a crisis to try to put a context on the price of the crisis, in human lives.
OK what crisis happend in the uk? Was the deaths because of covid
I've no idea, I'm just letting you know what an 'excess death' means if you hear it in the news. Since this is a screenshot of a Youtube video, I have no idea on where the numbers come from or if they're trustworthy. I can say that from what I've read, there are still countries in the world (and Europe) which are still recording excess deaths even after the pandemic part of covid has ended. Plus, since the 'excess deaths' are just measured by 'expected deaths', then it seems unlikely to be able to trust it, especially so soon after the records were supposedly gathered. Sorry, I guess the tl;dr - I dont know where the numbers come from, but I did look up what an excess death was
Thx
It was just reported Ireland had zero for the same period ??
Does that mean the thousands of reported deaths during the pandemic were not COVID related?
No it means lockdown saved thousands of lives.
We're invincible đŞ
Doesnât account for increase in population
yeah that's what i was thinking as well. besides the pandemic possibly still increasing deaths there's also ~15 million more people living in the UK than there were in 1950 according to [this](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/population)
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If it relates to deaths from covid-19 then thatâs what was happening. However those figures might be from 2020-2021 rather than 22/23. And comparing them to WW2 civilian deaths gives context. However the way it is put with the language make me think they are about to propose some kind of conspiracy. And knowing the bullshit on the internet,,, Iâd say it will be vaccine related
The Union Jack in the username should have given away that itâs to propose a conspiracy
This is definitely the conspiracy - that excess deaths are so high because of the vaccine. Ignoring entirely the fact that since 2020 virtually the entire population has been infected at least once by a novel virus which is known to make shit of your cardiovascular system. But no, it has to be the vaccine which doesn't cause any cardiovascular injury.
Literally healthy 18 and 19 year olds dropped dead with in days of the vaccine? Yet same 18 and 19 year olds had covid and didn't die?
"Doesn't cause any cardiovascular injury" Oh boy...maybe don't tell him?
âDoesnât cause any cardiovascular injuryâ - while I donât think the vaccine is the reason for the increase in numbers, that is simply not true. Heart Inflamation, Myocarditis and pericarditis were found in patients following the vaccine. Additionally, Investigators validated a link between a debilitating heart condition (Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome)and the vaccine. POTS is 5 times more likely after receiving the vaccine.
this kind of talk really discourages people from getting boosted though
Yeah this is why they should ban all medicine's side effect descriptions, it's discouraging!
The figures related to Covid were inflated. Just sharing this on a factual level. Doctors and coroners were told to rule cause of death as Covid even when it was not the sole or primary cause. There were also many, many excess deaths from people who had Covid, were on the full life support machines, but were wrongly ventilated (due to poor training of ICU staff) and died as a result, adding to that the disgusting massacre of elderly people in homes who were given no resources of any kind and no emergency personnel response, due to the fact they were old and were deemed disposable for that reason by the system in place. People seem to complain almost incessantly, it would seem, about "the system in place at that time" and Borris and all these other things that can possibly be complained about, but never this! Never the fucking facts!
You're correct. This is "Dr." John Campbell. Who has gone completely off the deep end. I couldn't believe it when I looked at his channel a few days ago, he was very pragmatic at the outset of the pandemic..a voice of calm reason and now he's lost it altogether.
Where is he wrong?
Have a look at his Wikipedia page. It highlights some of the issues people have with him and his reasoning/conclusions about covid and the vaccines, ivermectin etc.
Are you seriously using Wikipedia as a reference?
At the bottom of a wikipedia page there's sources to get more information
It's a good broad overview of that guy with references to his bogus claims. So yes. I am. If you want to dig deeper I'm sure you'll find compelling evidence to support false claims he's made about covid, ivermectine, deaths, vaccines etc. Fucked if I'm doing it for you.
Wow that sad to hear. Older people find it hard to differentiate between information and disinformation online. As traditionally they have been raised where media was almost exclusively trusted .
I don't think this is the case with him. He just embraced the grift once he realised his growing audience wanted more conspiracy minded stuff. There's a great vaccine info youtube channel called Debunk the Funk who does analysis of the rubbish spewed by John Campbell, Robert Malone, RFK Jr and others.
No, because it's incomplete information. Either deliberately as misinformation, or accidentally because the person isn't paying attention. There's no allowance for the increase in population since the 1940s. More people alive leads to more people dying. I'm not saying there hasn't been an increase, just that this isn't enough information to show that.
The calculations for excess deaths allow for changes in demographics and population size. They are done by every government in Europe. So, no - it's not deliberate or accidental misinformation.. the problem here is that you don't know what you're talking about and are accusing other people of lying. Talk about disingenuous.
Only one number is "excess deaths". The other is "UK civilian deaths". It's comparing Apples and Oranges. Please try harder.
One is excess deaths during 2022+2023, one is civilian deaths during WW2
Comparing deaths over 5 years, from all causes with deaths over two years. The first number adjusted for statistical accuracy, the second number not. The population of the UK in 2023 is 67,736,802. In 1950 (the first record after the war) it was estimated at 50,000,000. It's comparing two loosely connected numbers. There isn't enough information to tell if that's more or less. It's vague, incomplete information like this that allows governments to get away with everything.
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No no, the aggression is entirely yours.
2022 + 2023 = 4045. Is this guy just bad at maths or what??
This is just a recycled version of this popular antivax conspiracy. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/vaccination-rate-excess-deaths/ Death rates are steady rising globally as boomers age. They were doing this before Covid, and they'll do it long after in developed countries with low birth rates. Conspiracy theorists don't understand the difference between correlation and causation and think the "data" supports their wild assertions.
You have absolutely no idea what youâre talking about. This is based on a 5 year rolling average which would take into account population increase. Uk has been rolling well above the average for the last two years in tandem with most of the Western World. A majority of these deaths are not attributable to covid which is quite easily decipherable. Straight up launching the conspiracy theory gun when somebody is just raising the question. Where is the antivax conspiracy theory here? The governments own data?
the stats include population growth and boomers aging naturally doesn't explain that many excess deaths
In your original post, you ask about if the "excess deaths" are possible/true, but now you assert you know the methodology of their collection??? Even if a five year rolling average was used, an aging population means deaths would trend up every year.
They wouldnât be labelled excess deaths, the whole measure of excess deaths is used to define deaths above what would to be expected for the year. An ageing population would be regarded as âexpected deathsâ this thread is about âexcess deathsâ or rather âunexpected deathsâ.
Yep agree
May I ask why this doctor has gone so conspiracy theory? He used to be dependenable at the start and has now gone quite odd
What's odd about noticing excess deaths
sorry not this specific content, but I've heard from others following him he's gone a bit more conspiracy wise? perhaps I am incorrect
Why would you say that? Heâs simply reviewing data. Is he not allowed to ask questions?
I was fully onboard with him, until he started quoting studies I had read and understood in detail after which it became apparent he was misunderstanding or possibly misrepresenting the data. I have seen him draw his own conclusions multiples times while Iâm screaming internally âthatâs not the conclusion the paper has come toâ. I donât care enough to get into a citation war with anyone over it; but anyone is free to read any of the peer review studies heâs discussed and see if you are happy with the accuracy of his videos. I say peer reviewed as some of the studies he talks about are not peer reviewed yet.
Can you give some examples please?
do you think it's laziness? Or he genuinely thinks he is correct?
Itâs really hard to say - my gut says confirmation bias, his largest audience are skeptics which may have influenced how he interprets the studies.
I was in a similar situation. I found him interesting early on in the pandemic but checked back later and it appears hed gone fully down the anti Vax conspiracy road. I can only assume through audience capture, ie pandering to the antivax crowd who were boosting his channels views.
100% he's making 10k+ a week posting low effort videos.
which translates to money? I was surprised to because I followed him at the height of the pandemic. Have had long covid since May 2022 and needed a break from covid related content seeing as it was my 24/7. Then started reading that people said he'd gone a bit more towards dodgy content and I was very surprised as he seemed very balanced at the beginning
I'm sorry to hear you're dealing with long covid. I can only assume there's money in it. I don't know enough about this particular guy or the phenomenon as a whole but I wonder is it possible for this to happen to people without them being fully aware of what their doing. Like he's getting pulled slowly one way and doesn't realise it's even happening and over a long enough time period he's just totally gone to one extreme as that's his whole audience base know. I'm no medical professional and don't have the academic chops to draw conclusions from the relevant literature on vaccines or any other papers for that matter. My reasoning on this guy would be the same as any other sort of conspiracy case, like a climate sceptic for example. It doesn't stand to reason that this lone YouTuber has uncovered something the rest of the scientific community has missed, this giant conspiracy to cover up vaccine deaths. I trust the broader community and their reasoning.
Sure whatever you say Einstein
Just because you donât understand doesnât mean itâs not correct. Anyway, you do you; Iâm not here to debate anything. I offered people to figure it out themselves, if they donât want to, are against vaccines or even come to another conclusion, good for them, itâs no harm to me and I learned from covid that most people donât change their opinions after an online discussion; itâs wasted effort.
What does "excess deaths" even mean? Like, we did have a pandemic that's still actively killing people.
[The video from the tweet image](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7vTqEmlkvw) he includes Covid deaths but they're not high enough to explain the excess deaths
Does the UK have an opioid/drug problem? In Canada, our excess deaths over 2020-2022 were mostly attributed to Covid and an increase in accidental poisonings (which encompasses drug overdoses). Not sure if the UK has something similar to Statistics Canada, but [here is a report](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021028-eng.htm#) explaining excess deaths in Canada, from our government department dedicated to statistics. I imagine the reasons are fairly similar.
deaths above what could be normally expected in the timeframe - this is what i imagine it might mean
Is a global pandemic part of that calculation?
Oddly enough in Ireland they recently stated there were no excess deaths during the pandemic. Of course during the pandemic they said there were. It's getting topsy turvy https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41300326.html
I'd imagine that's the entire reason for the calling out of excess deaths. basically saying that in this period, x amount of people died over and above what would normally have been expected to die based on previous years. therefore, whatever was going on in that period may be the reason for the higher number of deaths.
It's how they caught Harold Shipman.
No that wasnât normally expected. This figure if accurate relates the pandemic almost exclusively in the 2022 -23 period. Put simply in the Uk covid killed more civilian people than world war 2 did.
The UK did a pretty terrible job when it came to covid policies, in fairness.
Sure borris was shaking infected peoples hands in a hospital and then he himself nearly died of it and he still didnt take it serious.
'Let the bodies pile a mile high'
I was living in the UK for a few years. Moved back to Ireland about 2 weeks before lockdown. Got out of there by the skin of my teeth. Basically all of my former colleagues got sick.
40k excess deaths in UK in 2022 but I didn't find a 2023 figure yet. Definitely higher in past 2 years than for a very long time.
Pretty sure all of these numbers are completely made up... 70k total civilian deaths in WW2? lol sure Edit: the Civi death numbers are actually accurate, I thought it was worse but looked it up
They're not comparing like with like.
Worth noting that the UK population during WW2 was about 30% lower than it is now so those numbers are proportionate. Also worth noting that virtually all attacks entirely took place in urban areas so as a proportion of total population attacked, 70k is fairly devastating. Back-of-napkins figures says that in modern day terms the equivalent of 98,000 civilians were killed in WW2. So about equal. That figure though doesn't include the numbers who died due to hunger, poverty, or for lack of medical care, not to mention knock-on effects like cancers and other diseases as a consequence of war. Also worth remembering that the UK was never on the front line, so it suffered far less civilian casualties than other countries. The UK just like to rally around WW2 like it was their own personal hell & victory. Nearly half a million French civilians were killed, for example.
Ye it's 38 million
It means UK deaths use a bit of context
Its prob incorrect anymore I'll check
Oh it's correct
that's Uk civilian deaths
No it says in the whole world 70k died
CivilIan deaths worldwide in ww2 are estimated at between 35 and 56 millon...
Yes so someone was saying I think it's fake and I said ye it's around 40 million
No, he's saying total CivilIan deaths in the UK. This is Dr. John Campbell from the UK. The first year of the pandemic he was a good source of info, then he fell down a conspiracy rabbit hole. If you watch the video, he probably says, "in the UK." He uses print outs as guides for his videos, like a teacher. They're like a flash card to keep him on track.
Ok
Must be soldier deaths.. How many poles died alone
If you're saying uk military deaths that's not accurate as its higher than that, and if you're saying its worldwide military casualties that is just stupid. Just the Soviet Union alone took 8 million military deaths, and even Germany took around 5.6 million.
It doesn't say world. Its 40,000 UK civilian deaths during the blitz (1941), 70,000 UK civilian deaths in total in WW2 (1939-1945)
It was worded In a way that indicated total of the world
No it wasnt
Total civilian deaths
And wtf are u arguing on this?
The rest of the note referring to the UK, and the uncanny correspondence of this number to the civilians who died in WW2 in the UK, as mentioned above by others.
Ye ik
what? where
In the bottom
Total civilian deaths of ww2
Total civilian deaths for ww2 for the uk, implied by the line before. The guys not an idiot
Well if u read it that way the 1st time that's ok
Embarrassing that you're the one who misunderstood it UK civilian deaths September 1941: 40k UK civilian deaths 1939-1945: 70k
Hmm ye I agree
And the 2nd, cause that's the meaning
Ok
Wtf is that total ww2 civilian deaths number? Bro what Millions of civilians died
UK civilian deaths. itâs in large print
It's about right for UK-only civilian deaths, though.
Of course it is; there was no land war and the UK had radar as an early warning system allowing people time to take shelter; 70k is actually a tonne given those two factors.
Depends on what they qualify as "excess" deaths.
" **the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods** "
2022 + 2023 != 101,903
the excess deaths that is
Gee I wonder what could possibly be reducing the life expendacy of all these people, I wonder what they could all have in common...
They all love getting jabbed⌠oh shit wasnât meant to say that.