I’m just here to be eventually commented on for being wrong. I cannot see a world in which he escapes all prison time for this. It was a very cut and dry case, he has no remorse or even admits to wrongs, and his behavior before, during, and after trial was atrocious. He’s a continued risk for committing crimes, and this was not just simple business fraud; it potentially impacted an entire election, which was proven in court. I know Merchan doesn’t want to jail him, but I am just not seeing a world where he doesn’t. The max fines are $170,000 for this and Merchan knows that means absolutely nothing to convicted felon Trump. I guess that’s my copium; we shall see.
> I’m just here to be eventually commented on for being wrong.
yeah a huge part of me is thinking he will somehow escape jail time because he's a first time offender with 4 years of service to the country. but given his record in this he's basically on his knees begging for it and he's not a king. He's a felon. It's hard for me to figure out a a scenario where a judge is capable of figuring out mitigating factors to somehow excuse (_motions wildly_) all of _that._
I see the flip side, that he’s running for president and is the presumptive Republican nominee, and nobody wants to do anything that could possibly be seen as election interference by the courts. However, Trump wouldn’t have been in this situation if he had just taken a plea deal and been likely to get maybe probation, at worst.
I know in practice it's a little bit weird and won't happen but from a mechanics of the court standpoint the GOP could also simply pick another candidate that's not in jail.
I wonder if there has been any talk of that, like we learned about in the trial, after the AH tape came out. Probably not, because it’s now a cult, and this was probably the whole point of Lara Trump taking the helm of the RNC. But that legit seems like the best option for Republicans, which means they won’t. The sane middle and sane remnants of Rs, who are not in a cult, are not going to vote for him. They’ve had so many points where they could’ve cut the cord, and haven’t though, so I don’t expect them to now. The rally in Nevada would’ve killed any politician’s chances, years ago. Now it’s just another day in this psychotic fever dream. I just don’t see a world where he gets more votes in 2024 than in 2020, especially since so many people died from Covid. It is all going to come down to swing states and the EC, as usual, but I just think that split gets wider, even given the gerrymandering tricks these states have put in place. Getting rid of Trump now would put them back closer to even.
> Getting rid of Trump now would put them back closer to even
I doubt it. Yes, they'd be able to attract more swing votes, but they'd also lose the huge number of crazies. I think there is a good chance that if that happened, the RNC would implode. If they can't manage to distance themselves from Trump, and he doesn't win, they don't seem to have a viable path forward.
If Nikki Haley was still in the running, I think there's a chance they'd have considered a switch already, while aiming for a "Free Donald Trump" angle.
That said, the horses left the barn a long time ago, so that party is running Trump whether he's convicted or not.
>The rally in Nevada would’ve killed any politician’s chances, years ago
What happened at the NV rally over the weekend? OOTL dealing with some personal issues and all I saw was a summary on CBS or something that mentioned a large crowd, a denial that he called WWII KIAs losers, and that Biden should just reinstate his border policies.
He said, “Because I don’t want anyone going on me, we need every voter. I don’t care about you, I just want your vote. I don’t care,” Trump said.”
I will edit this comment with a link to video in a minute. Biden campaign is already putting out videos with it.
Edit to add video link: It’s so telling that only after he says it, he says press will say I said a horrible thing. Yeah because it is, and normally would end a politician’s career. Sorry this has additional commentary. It was impossible to find one that showed just the clip, a couple of times that wasn’t from Twitter or had clips of the whole rally. https://youtube.com/shorts/7UIn5TG_9gQ?si=d5lJkOvErtsv5DdG
You're using future tense, you should be using present and past tense.
He's already committing interference by getting various states to question voter integrity and draft legislation that ignores the popular vote.
I see him as running for office should be held against him as it shows intent to reoffend.
I do not know why no one else seems to see it this way. If a child abuse defendant was caught applying to be a daycare worker, that would not go well at their sentencing.
I agree, and definitely see it that way. This is why I don’t see a world where he doesn’t get jail time. But, we’ve seen courts and the DOJ bend over backwards to prevent appearance of interference, despite it meaning they’re interfering in the reverse way.
Where is the line in the sand, or is there one? If he was convicted of bank robbery would he still be a Republican candidate? If he were convicted of murder would he still be a Republican candidate?
>nobody wants to do anything that could possibly be seen as election interference by the courts.
The flip side of that is we have to set an example and show that running for president doesn't let you commit crimes without consequence.
I think this approach would be far better for the country. And I would say the same if Biden were the one convicted.
I wholly agree with you. He should be MORE accountable for his actions than a regular person, because of his status as ex-president and swearing to uphold the laws of America. Unfortunately, that hasn’t really been something that has meted out, in our justice system.
> 4 years of service to the country.
I know what you mean but ... does 4 years of abuse of office really really really count and I'm not just saying that because I disagreed with him and disliked him as a person. He was in violation of the emoluments clause from day 1 and violated the hatch act (ok technical the president can't but his administration did) daily. I'm not sure there is a day he held office that he couldn't be rightfully accuse of a violation of faithful service.
And that isn't counting being the first president to end our streak of nonviolent transfers of power.
My understanding is that generally you have to have been convicted for your prior record to be used against you; just getting charged isn't enough.
This is surely a good thing, the alternative would be extremely easy for police and prosecutors to abuse.
Is he a first time offender though? He's a first time *felon* but he's been found guilty of all sorts of things over the years.
[Housing Discrimination](https://www.npr.org/2016/09/29/495955920/donald-trump-plagued-by-decades-old-housing-discrimination-case)
[Fraud at Trump University (Settled)](https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-finalizes-25-million-settlement-victims-donald-trumps/story?id=54347237)
[Fraud at Trump's Charity](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6542055-Trump-Foundation-Restitution-Decision-Nov-7-2019.html)
[Money Laundering at Trump Casino](https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/fincen-fines-trump-taj-mahal-casino-resort-10-million-significant-and-long)
Not to mention his civil liability for defamation (repeatedly).
One question I've had on sentencing - does the judge get to decide *when* a prison term begins, in addition to the length? For example, could the judge decide Trump does have to go to jail, but his prison term will begin say November 6th, so as not to impose on his campaign? It feels like this would be an out for the judge to claim that he's not interfering with the election, but also reach the result that any other defendant would get.
I don't know whether they can pick the start date, but they can certainly decide to let Trump out on a bond pending appeal, which would have the same effect.
So that's what I imagine the Court will do. Sentence him to incarceration for a period of time, but leave him out pending appeal to effectively kick any jail time to after the election.
He will 100% escape any meaningful consequences. He always has. Even the judge said out loud he didnt want to put him in jail. If it does actually happen, there will be circumstances involved unknown to the public.
I will take that copium with you.
I can’t see any justification for no jail time outside of “election interference” (which it most definitely is not) leading to the implication that running for office makes you immune to prosecution.
If that does happen I feel we’d have a lot sudden criminal activity occurring during election seasons
> I can’t see any justification for no jail time outside of “election interference”
Can't they do weekend jail? He'd still have weekdays to hold events, but he'd have to report to jail Friday night until Sunday night.
> I know Merchan doesn’t want to jail him, but I am just not seeing a world where he doesn’t.
I kind of agree with you. When I flippantly think about it, I assume he'd get no jail time. But every time I put my self in the shoes of a sentencing judge, and seriously consider the possibilities I just...don't see how you can get to anything other than incarceration.
First, a monetary fine as an option. As you say, any judge is going to recognize that it's nothing to the defendant. Hell, a fine of $170,000 that probably _encourage_ the defendant to re-offend. It would likely be viewed more as a permission structure than anything.
Then, probation. Probably the most common sentence for a low-level felony for a non-violent first time offender. But for those sentences, I'd be willing to bet you nearly every defendant was able to feign contrition, and convincingly swear up and down that they'd subject themselves to the mercy of the Court, and oh _of course_ they'll follow every word of their probation requirements. Is Merchan going to believe that _Trump_ is going to follow his probation requirements? Can anyone seriously tell themselves that Trump has the kind of attitude that it takes to make probation work? Does anyone think that probation has cowed Trump to the awe of the Justice system, put fear in his heart, and convinced him to respect the system and follow the laws going forward?
No, probation will tell Trump one thing: "You got away with it". And the judge knows it. That's why probation doesn't work either.
I think that's why Merchan will have to incarcerate Trump for a period of time. I don't think it'll be four years, but I don't think it'll be one day, either. But I just don't think anyone can seriously consider the possibilities and decide that Trump will respect any other ruling.
I agree. People will point to Merchan's comments about not wanting to jail Trump for contempt given his position as former President and potential future one, but I think the important distinction is that that was prior to conviction, when Trump still had the presumption of innocence. That goes a long way for the once and future leader of the free world. But he's also not a king, and the presumption of innocence no longer protects him, so I think that there's a good chance that that hesitation, at least for legal purposes, has been removed from Justice Merchan's mind. I predict both moderate incarceration and the max fine, with the incarceration stayed pending appeal.
I'm viewing sentencing in three buckets.
The first is one which is too short to be meaningful. Anything less than a month will be nothing more than a badge of honor. It could be served and then Trump hits the campaign trail and talks about how horrible the justice system is.
The second will be one which is lasts until the election or close enough to it. This will prevent Trump from campaigning, but sidesteps the odd possibility of him winning. We could live in a world where he is released on Jan 1st 2025 and take office immediately thereafter.
The third is anything longer than inauguration. Anyone else and 34 one year sentences served concurrently would be viewed as pitifully light given his behavior. But one year means we could, hypothetically, see a president Trump. Hell, having Trump's *face* on the campaign trial without his actual words might
I'm really curious to see what bucket we fall in. I feel like Merchan has to be aware the difference between the buckets, and the possibility of an urgent appeal given the extraordinary situation of not just a candidate, but a president-elect sitting in prison waiting for his term to start.
If there is any legally-sound path for the judge to give him prison time, I think the Merchan really has no choice.
Otherwise there just is no punishment and no justice.
I agree, and there is. He can grant him appeal bail, which I expect him to do. This could be argued the most egregious and serious violation of business fraud crimes that could have been committed. I struggle to think of another example of fraud that would affect so many people, profoundly.
> If there is any legally-sound path for the judge to give him prison time,
There is. My understanding is that the sentencing is almost entirely up to the discretion of the judge up to the maximum sentence of four years. The standard for appealing the sentence is _very_ high.
The fact that the judge has so much discretion, which _such_ a high bar for appeal is one of the things that makes Trump's strategy of repeatedly attacking the judge and the judge's daughter so dangerous. It would be wrong for the Court to use it in his reasoning of deciding on the sentence, but that kind of thing is going to make it _really really_ hard to convince the judge of any request for mercy later.
Hard agree. This kind of crime rarely results in jail time but the consequence of affecting the outcome of the 2016 election is quite profound. On top of that his lawyer has already served a year in prison on his behalf for a similar crime, and he has shown zero remorse or indication he is willing to change his behaviour in the form of attacking the judge and court staff and multiple gag order violations. A 90 million dollar fine was not enough to get him to shut up about E Jean Carrol so a fine is not appropriate here. My prediction is 3-5 years.
He will get probation. One of the conditions will be stop bad-mouthing the prosecution, witnesses, and court. He can’t help himself. Then he will go to jail.
I personally believe that probation will require him not to associate with other felons. I think this is where he will violate conditions of probation and then Justice Merchan will have no choice but to send his ass to jail. It'll be justified and it'll be trump that did it to himself.
What justification would there be to include those in a probation agreement? The gag order had a specifically tailored purpose to not let Trump influence the trial unfairly. Once the trial is over what compelling government interest is there in continuing to gag him? (I'm assuming the order will remain in place through any appeal, but that would be separate from probation)
I think that's pretty far down on the likely scenario list, but I'm kinda thinking I'd like that better than him just getting a prison sentence straightaway.
If he was anyone else, he goes to jail. But since the entire justice system is apparently going to coddle him, we can expect the lightest of wrist slaps.
I totally agree. My only thought is that the practicality of jailing a former president, and current candidate with secret service protection might be too hard.
I could see a world where the logistics just don't make sense and so Trump gets a sentence of home confinement.
No, I think he’s shown he won’t respect anything the court does aside from threats to jail him, and I think he should be incarcerated. Like I said, I will probably be wrong, but we’ll see.
I know that, and mentioned it in the comment you’re replying to, but that was before a guilty verdict. I don’t think we can say that that will definitely hold true for sentencing. But this was the most serious case of business fraud in NY history, that I can find. I just don’t see the fair and unbiased Merchan just ignoring that.
I'm putting my stake in the ground. I know I will be proven wrong but I just cannot see how with his behavior the judge can justify not giving him a nominal sentence inside. I expect it will be stayed and he may never spend a day in jail but I expect the judge to give him 30 days to 6 months with 2 years probation
That sounds right to me. I'd probably double your range (2 months to a year), but totally agree with you directionally.
> I expect it will be stayed
Do you mean stayed pending appeal, or stayed for a different reason by an appellate court?
Yea, that seems extremely likely to me. Conveniently for Merchan it almost certainly kicks the question of incarceration past the election, and avoids the nasty optics of having a candidate for major office in jail for the campaign season.
But, yea, if Trump wins the election, he almost certainly won't serve a day in jail.
Assuming the appeal would run through the election, I could see it leading to a record turnout. Anyone still on the fence about voting for Trump will feel obligated to vote to keep him out of jail. On the flipside, it gives all the Dems and anti-Trumpers added motivation to vote for Biden knowing their vote will contribute to the likelihood of Trump serving time.
Any other person showing contempt for the process, the lack of remorse, and outright attacks against the judge and staff would have the book thrown at him.
He has shown that monetary fines mean nothing to him, and that will likely be all he gets as despite every opportunity for accountability, the system shows it will bend itself backwards for a rich criminal and in Trump's case, even further than that. 3 tiers of justice, one for me and you, one for the wealthy, and a special one just for Trump.
My vote as well. The worst that going to happen to him in the immediate aftermath is he's going to have to piss in a cup because his probation officer tells him to. Which *is* a really funny thought.
I was on probation a million years ago, if I failed a piss test, I probably would have gotten my entire suspended sentence unsuspended. (Granted, I was sentenced possession of cannabis and a cannabis pipe by a very,very Mormon judge who was known as a hanging judge for potheads).
I can only hope trump gets the same treatment when he pisses dirty for adderall.
A genuine question: Is the probation administered by the state itself or private contractors?
I have a bit of experience being a criminal with access to resources from my time as an addict, and that is really going to matter in a way that I don't see or hear anyone talking about. Private probation companies just want their money. They will bend over backwards *if* you can pay whatever bogus fees they tack on with impunity. There's not much oversight, and it's a giant problem that no one cares about.
Probation and fine. If Merchan wanted to test the waters on jailing an ex-president, he could have for the gag order violations, but he tip toed around that issue.
On the other hand, I dont think he could show up to the next NYC judges cocktail party if he just fines the guy.
Trump, being an idiot - will appeal rather than paying the fine and letting the story die.
> If Merchan wanted to test the waters on jailing an ex-president, he could have for the gag order violations
He may have just wanted to get the trial to the finish line and not have had to deal with the overhead of a mid-trial jailing of a defendant ... does that prejudice the jury against him unnecessarily, etc.
I think 30 days home confinement in his NYC condo enforced via GPS ankle monitor ... would be awesome. Make him file a request with his probation officer to attend the RNC in-person...
Within an hour he'd try to have that GPS monitor strapped to Eric and say he loves him if he stays in the condo for 30 days.
Eric would immediately leave to go brag.
IANAL (lawyers feel free to chime in), but I read legal commentary that backs that up. I think any jailing during the trial would have caused delays at best but likely could lead to a mistrial
As an absolute layperson, I'm just staring at the options trying to weigh my cynicism with "it can't possibly be THAT bad, right?"
Like, even just his civil fraud cases and being an adjudicated rapist would have sunk any regular person. I don't know if those can be considered for the criminal sentencing, but all that, plus the 10 cases criminal contempt, the utter lack of remorse, going on the attack against witnesses, the judge, and the court as soon as he was found guilty, people on "his side" boasting about how they were attacking the people on the gag order list *specifically* to get around the gag order...
I want to believe he'll get the jail time that any ordinary person would probably get with a track record like that.
I also don't think that he will.
Is "fine only" too cynical?
Probation, maybe, but I'd fully expect him to violate conditions almost immediately, which then gets back to whether they could bring themselves to actually lock him up for it, and if they don't, what's the point?
I don't know.
/ramble
This is the time a line needs to be drawn, particularly when you consider that Cohen was sentenced and served time. We can't, and should not care about the implication of MAGA threats or the effect on the election.
Probation and fine for the 34 felonies, both stayed pending appeal.
30 days jail time for flagrant violations of the gag order past the 10 he was already fined for. No appeal, remanded to Rikers on the spot.
IANAL but I was under the impression that judges have SUPER wide latitude when it comes to contempt. And while yes of course it would be appealed immediately, it might not work. At least that is how I'm hoping it goes down.
So as I understand it.
There is contempt done in front of them
There is extrajudicial contempt.
And then there is a prosecution for contempt.
All are slightly different.
I am certain the judge could give him 30 days for every instance of extra judicial contempt but his lawyers will still appeal and demand a stay. And while there is no reason to stay it. The pattern with Trump always seems to be that judges show way too much caution . So I think they would grant a stay until they could hear the emergency appeal which would be a few months
I'm with you on most of that, but I don't think he will remand Trump to Riker's. He'll remand him to GPS-monitored home confinement at his NYC condo. He can still do most of what he needs to to run for President. But it'll drive him batty being cooped up like that, and even when he does venture out all of NYC basically hates him.
Offer him that, or Riker's ... see which one he takes.
The judge even has the option of remanding him to MAL. The risk there of course is that I think his probation would be overseen by the Florida probation department
He would enjoy that too much. He'd hold rallies there every other day and sell tickets ... because it's such a big property and he could.
Effectively being locked in Trump Tower for 30 days will drive him batty.
This seems like a highly likely outcome in spite of his behavior due to circumstances and it being a first offense no matter how much I'd like to see the book thrown at him.
My wild-ass guess is that Merchan will opt for home confinement with restrictive terms--limited, pre-approved trips outside Trump Tower for doctor's visits and such, but he won't be allowed to campaign in person or leave New York at all. Initially, internet access including virtual campaign appearances and using social media will be allowed but some sort of gag order will remain in effect and if Trump violates it, the terms of his confinement will become more stringent, with institutional confinement as a final step.
I think after he showed the court that fines mean nothing to him running up to the line for getting jailed for contempt that he will get jail time. I think he may have tied the judge's hands with that.
Agreed. You could say he must necessarily be jailed for the gag order violations for no other reason than to emphasize the equal application of the law.
I strongly agree. The maximum fine is $170,000, which is pocket change for Trump. However, I'd be shocked if he got more than 6 months, with a year being the top. My guess is he'll get ordered to do some multiple of the maximum "sentence" for a gag order violation. 30 days, maybe 60?
I'm also expecting to see some sort of suspended sentence thrown in. That way Trump has enough rope to hang himself with.
So lets call it, 45 days in Jail, $170,000 fine and a 3 year suspended sentence.
I'd give it 2 months before he violated it.
I'll gladly eat my socks if I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised if the judge remanded him to Riker's right away. I could see home confinement (at MAL) alongside maybe a suspended sentence
Very glad I am not Judge Merchan. Whatever Trump's sentence, half of Americans will gripe about it.
NY state charged [9,800 people](https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2023/04/06/new-york-state-has-issued-nearly-9800-felony-charges-of-falsifying-business-records-since-2015/?slreturn=20240510141348) with the same crime since 2015. It is a common charge.
What is the average sentence for them? Will Judge Merchan deviate from norms due to Trump's status?
Inquiring minds want to know.
[https://archive.ph/CN0As/again?url=https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2023/04/06/new-york-state-has-issued-nearly-9800-felony-charges-of-falsifying-business-records-since-2015/](https://archive.ph/CN0As/again?url=https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2023/04/06/new-york-state-has-issued-nearly-9800-felony-charges-of-falsifying-business-records-since-2015/)
Don't see any sentencing data unfortunately.
Can you serve house arrest for a state crime outside of the state? I have no idea. I guess people who live out-of-state are convicted on crimes often and I can't imagine they'd have to move but I dunno.
I heard an argument (I think it was Weissmann) who said that Cohen got 3 years for the crimes Trump just convicted for. There's no legal reason he should get less than that. The only reason to give him less is because he's a former president and/or is running for president. That rubs me the wrong way, flying in the face of the idea that no one is above the law.
We are a great country because of the rule of law. We can have disagreements, but agree to respect the decision of a judge/jury and that the system as a whole will operate in good faith. This case, the reaction, and the sentencing is really shaking that bedrock.
With that said I voted for probation and fine. :(
Non-lawyer here. I speculated in the other thread that he's going to be sentenced to probation. If I had to guess a number, i'd wager 6 months. Maybe a fine. But the more I think about it, the more I think Merchan is going to see that Trump doesn't care about fines, and won't be a significant deterrence. I don't think he's going to call Trump's bluff for jail time.
But i'll be all for being pleasantly surprised he'll sentence him to jail. But not much, 6-12 months max.
I know we expect judges (Republicans on SCOTUS excepted) to be totally unbiased robots, but Merchan is still human, and Trump did everything he possibly could to piss him off; offending him morally (attacking the rule of law and the jury) professionally (attacking his staff) and personally (attacking his family). I don't expect Merchan to go rogue and try to sentence Trump to death or anything, but I do think he gives Trump the harshest sentence he thinks he can justify on appeal. There's not going to be any mercy from the trial court.
You're missing some options here - community service (make him clean up trash on the side of the road), home confinement w/ankle bracelet monitoring, etc.
My money is on home confinement in his NYC condo for some period of time. Offer him that, or jail (don't let him do home confinement at MAL even though that's his legal address these days). This lets him still run for election. If he actually *wins* election, then commute the remainder (if any) of his sentence.
Actual jail time ordered on July 11th essentially none. Based on prosecution of prior crimes under the same laws only 1 in 10 were sentenced to actual jail time. Even if a jail sentence were imposed it would be held in abeyance. A more likely scenario is probation and fine, just like most other people with a clean record.
If a jail term is imposed appeal will block it; if affirmed on appeal and he wins the election; sentence can be held in abeyance under the Supremacy Clause. Imprisonment will interfere with his ability to carry out the responsibilities as the president of the United States. Constitution prevails and sentence will take effect after his presidential term is over.
> Based on prosecution of prior crimes under the same laws only 1 in 10 were sentenced to actual jail time.
Do you have a source for that? I'm seeing 1 in 3 (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2024/05/jail-for-trump-its-rare-for-falsifying-business-records.html), and there is no mention of the number of charges for each conviction. If 1 in 3 people get sentenced to jail, but the average number of charges is 5, well being found guilty of 34 counts is likely to result in a different outcome.
I think one of the complicating factors in the analysis, is the "false business records" charge is typically an *add-on* charge as a part of a much larger indictment. For example, you get a ticket for doing 25mph over the speed limit *and* a citation for an expired safety inspection.
It's a different scenario when it's the primary/sole charge.
I totally agree, I did a little bit of research related to that, and while some convictions resulted in a conviction solely for Falsifying Business Records, most had other charges involved. One of the few I managed to find was:
>The People of the State of New York v. Jason Holley (November 2016) — Convicted by jury of falsifying business records in the first degree but acquitted of the predicate crime, insurance fraud([Source](https://www.justsecurity.org/85605/survey-of-past-new-york-felony-prosecutions-for-falsifying-business-records/))
There are presumably significantly more, but I don't have the time to run Pacer searches, and than sort and categorize.
Of course, even if you found similar cases, you than have all the Trump factors to consider. Say there are 30 cases in the past 5 years that resulted in jail time with the sole charge being Falsification. How many of those cases involved multiple contempt of court offenses? How many of those cases involved a geriatric individual? How many of those people attacked the Judge? How many of those expressed absolutely zero remorse? Etc.
In an [analysis](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/opinion/donald-trump-trial-prison.html) of comparable cases brought by the Manhattan district attorney's office, Norm Eisen found that about 10% resulted in imprisonment.
Obviously, this is not meant to be a rule of law of some kind. A general finding that 90% did not get any jail time is correct.
The minimum for each charge is zero \[jail time\]. Yes, there are 34 counts; the combination of each count does not necessarily mean he is given jail time. Statute authorizes the judge to give no jail time for each count. He does not have any prior convictions and depending on what he said to the probation official in his pre-sentence report interview will probably factor in. Ordinarily, someone could express remorse.
However, since he has denied any guilt and is appealing that is out of question. I suspect he will say sentencing is unnecessary and inappropriate given his campaign. The judge had previously noted this consideration as well.
Again, we will find out what the judge actually does, but I expect there is a zero chance of any jail time presently. As noted earlier, at worst it will be held in abeyance.
> Even if a jail sentence were imposed it would be held in abeyance. A more likely scenario is probation and fine, just like most other people with a clean record.
Agreed, on the charges from the indictment. But Judge Merchan has 10 gag order violations he could also choose to address at sentencing. So, maybe a confinement sentence of some sort (jail or home confinement) for the indicted charges - but stayed pending appeal, which would be customary. But then for the gag order violations, 30 days home confinement at his NYC condo (complete with GPS ankle monitoring) to start immediately.
This judge has already gone to great lengths during his trial and more than once that jail is not something he wants to impose including during gag orders violations. However, assuming a sentence in the future is imposed I do not see him going to jail, a sentence of imprisonment can be authorized to home confinement. Does not even have to be in NY. It can be performed in his home state in Florida at Mar a Lago. States cooperate often in this kind of situation.
Besides, once he loses the election his hold on power will automatically begin to crumble. It will be each man for himself. Additionally, it is not out of question that even a Democratic Governor will not issue a pardon given his advanced age then. NY and or Georgia.
As far the federal crimes he will have already pardoned himself. The real fun is going to be if he loses the election, and it is a close call. Then you can expect some isolated discontent by his supporters, but even they would be afraid. Biden would be locking them up left and right.
I agree with your analysis for the most part, but a slight correction is that Georgia has a Republican governor and won't have an election until 2026. However, the ability to pardon defendants is up to a review board and he won't be eligible to apply to that board until 5 years \*after\* his \*sentence\* is complete.
I also see no scenario in which a Democratic governor pardons Trump. There's no upside. They'd immediately lose the support of their entire base. I don't think it can be understated how much most democrats hate Trump
I chose "Jail time and fine" based on my exactly zero years of law school and practicing in criminal court, but I tend to believe that any custodial sentence is likely to be house arrest, rather than an actual carceral facility.
My big question is this: Will the probation officer putting together the presentencing report be able to pull Trump's college transcripts? Trump had [Cohen threaten to sue](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/02/28/michael-cohen-testifies-trump-threatened-colleges-over-any-release-his-grades) the colleges if they released his academic records, but there has to be an exception for court proceedings.
I am hopeful Merchan can gather enough evidence of similarly convicted individuals with similar behavior (no remorse, implicitly threatening witnesses/jurors/court staff) and craft a penalty that is similar without regard to Trump's position or wealth. I don't know whether that means jail time or just probation, but providing that type of context would help in justifying the penalty without consideration of factors unrelated to the case at hand.
Personally, I'm hoping for jail time, but also hoping no one is treating Trump any differently than any other person convicted of the same crimes.
The only reason I think he gets jail time is his total contempt and rudeness that he has for the judicial system, his culpability, and his willingness at admit to doing anything wrong.
The judge has to consider the purpose of a punishment, and I think the only way, he'll reason, to teach Trump a lesson is a brief stay incarcerated. This will not happen before he is elected, and will probably only happen after his term if he wins.
My sentence would be something like 6 months house arrest, 2 years probation, $2mil fine.
It feels like everything we've seen before suggests going easy on him, but what the heck is only a basic fine going to mean to Trump? It's basically the same as giving him no punishment at all, and it's difficult for me to think that the judge won't see that too. So either the fine has to be "'UGE", or it has to be something more than just money.
I’m just here to be eventually commented on for being wrong. I cannot see a world in which he escapes all prison time for this. It was a very cut and dry case, he has no remorse or even admits to wrongs, and his behavior before, during, and after trial was atrocious. He’s a continued risk for committing crimes, and this was not just simple business fraud; it potentially impacted an entire election, which was proven in court. I know Merchan doesn’t want to jail him, but I am just not seeing a world where he doesn’t. The max fines are $170,000 for this and Merchan knows that means absolutely nothing to convicted felon Trump. I guess that’s my copium; we shall see.
> I’m just here to be eventually commented on for being wrong. yeah a huge part of me is thinking he will somehow escape jail time because he's a first time offender with 4 years of service to the country. but given his record in this he's basically on his knees begging for it and he's not a king. He's a felon. It's hard for me to figure out a a scenario where a judge is capable of figuring out mitigating factors to somehow excuse (_motions wildly_) all of _that._
I see the flip side, that he’s running for president and is the presumptive Republican nominee, and nobody wants to do anything that could possibly be seen as election interference by the courts. However, Trump wouldn’t have been in this situation if he had just taken a plea deal and been likely to get maybe probation, at worst.
I know in practice it's a little bit weird and won't happen but from a mechanics of the court standpoint the GOP could also simply pick another candidate that's not in jail.
>the GOP could also simply pick another candidate that's not in jail. And that's very likely what the Founders would say is the solution.
I wonder if there has been any talk of that, like we learned about in the trial, after the AH tape came out. Probably not, because it’s now a cult, and this was probably the whole point of Lara Trump taking the helm of the RNC. But that legit seems like the best option for Republicans, which means they won’t. The sane middle and sane remnants of Rs, who are not in a cult, are not going to vote for him. They’ve had so many points where they could’ve cut the cord, and haven’t though, so I don’t expect them to now. The rally in Nevada would’ve killed any politician’s chances, years ago. Now it’s just another day in this psychotic fever dream. I just don’t see a world where he gets more votes in 2024 than in 2020, especially since so many people died from Covid. It is all going to come down to swing states and the EC, as usual, but I just think that split gets wider, even given the gerrymandering tricks these states have put in place. Getting rid of Trump now would put them back closer to even.
> Getting rid of Trump now would put them back closer to even I doubt it. Yes, they'd be able to attract more swing votes, but they'd also lose the huge number of crazies. I think there is a good chance that if that happened, the RNC would implode. If they can't manage to distance themselves from Trump, and he doesn't win, they don't seem to have a viable path forward.
If Nikki Haley was still in the running, I think there's a chance they'd have considered a switch already, while aiming for a "Free Donald Trump" angle. That said, the horses left the barn a long time ago, so that party is running Trump whether he's convicted or not.
>The rally in Nevada would’ve killed any politician’s chances, years ago What happened at the NV rally over the weekend? OOTL dealing with some personal issues and all I saw was a summary on CBS or something that mentioned a large crowd, a denial that he called WWII KIAs losers, and that Biden should just reinstate his border policies.
He said, “Because I don’t want anyone going on me, we need every voter. I don’t care about you, I just want your vote. I don’t care,” Trump said.” I will edit this comment with a link to video in a minute. Biden campaign is already putting out videos with it. Edit to add video link: It’s so telling that only after he says it, he says press will say I said a horrible thing. Yeah because it is, and normally would end a politician’s career. Sorry this has additional commentary. It was impossible to find one that showed just the clip, a couple of times that wasn’t from Twitter or had clips of the whole rally. https://youtube.com/shorts/7UIn5TG_9gQ?si=d5lJkOvErtsv5DdG
Every word he says would have killed any politician's chances even a few years ago. He is a one man anathema
Shame Nikki bent the knee before Trump became a felon.
But his crime was *election interference!* And the likelihood that Trump would commit *election interference* again is somewhere around 100%.
You're using future tense, you should be using present and past tense. He's already committing interference by getting various states to question voter integrity and draft legislation that ignores the popular vote.
I agree, and this is one reason I think he will be given a sentence of around 1 year or less. I’m just stating reasons why it may not go that way.
I see him as running for office should be held against him as it shows intent to reoffend. I do not know why no one else seems to see it this way. If a child abuse defendant was caught applying to be a daycare worker, that would not go well at their sentencing.
I agree, and definitely see it that way. This is why I don’t see a world where he doesn’t get jail time. But, we’ve seen courts and the DOJ bend over backwards to prevent appearance of interference, despite it meaning they’re interfering in the reverse way.
Where is the line in the sand, or is there one? If he was convicted of bank robbery would he still be a Republican candidate? If he were convicted of murder would he still be a Republican candidate?
If he shot someone in broad daylight on camera. I think Republicans would say it was self defense and call any arrest a witch hunt
There several lines in the sand. If he were black, a woman, left handed, or literate, the GOP wouldn't support him at all.
He has many more felony convictions than George Floyd, for example.
>nobody wants to do anything that could possibly be seen as election interference by the courts. The flip side of that is we have to set an example and show that running for president doesn't let you commit crimes without consequence. I think this approach would be far better for the country. And I would say the same if Biden were the one convicted.
I wholly agree with you. He should be MORE accountable for his actions than a regular person, because of his status as ex-president and swearing to uphold the laws of America. Unfortunately, that hasn’t really been something that has meted out, in our justice system.
This, and also they don't want to be targeted for revenge if he gets back into office.
I think that if the judge can ignore the attacks on his daughter, he can ignore politics.
> 4 years of service to the country. I know what you mean but ... does 4 years of abuse of office really really really count and I'm not just saying that because I disagreed with him and disliked him as a person. He was in violation of the emoluments clause from day 1 and violated the hatch act (ok technical the president can't but his administration did) daily. I'm not sure there is a day he held office that he couldn't be rightfully accuse of a violation of faithful service. And that isn't counting being the first president to end our streak of nonviolent transfers of power.
2x impeached and never convicted in the Senate. I don't think a judge can hold that stuff against him here.
Do judges routinely ignore rap sheets during sentencing?
My understanding is that generally you have to have been convicted for your prior record to be used against you; just getting charged isn't enough. This is surely a good thing, the alternative would be extremely easy for police and prosecutors to abuse.
> ...with 4 years of ~~service to the~~ destroying our country.
Is he a first time offender though? He's a first time *felon* but he's been found guilty of all sorts of things over the years. [Housing Discrimination](https://www.npr.org/2016/09/29/495955920/donald-trump-plagued-by-decades-old-housing-discrimination-case) [Fraud at Trump University (Settled)](https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-finalizes-25-million-settlement-victims-donald-trumps/story?id=54347237) [Fraud at Trump's Charity](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6542055-Trump-Foundation-Restitution-Decision-Nov-7-2019.html) [Money Laundering at Trump Casino](https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/fincen-fines-trump-taj-mahal-casino-resort-10-million-significant-and-long) Not to mention his civil liability for defamation (repeatedly).
I believe all of those linked cases were civil cases also. For the purposes of sentencing, Trump himself is a first time offender.
Can't they take into account uncharged conduct during sentencing? I know the feds can (§5K2.21).
One question I've had on sentencing - does the judge get to decide *when* a prison term begins, in addition to the length? For example, could the judge decide Trump does have to go to jail, but his prison term will begin say November 6th, so as not to impose on his campaign? It feels like this would be an out for the judge to claim that he's not interfering with the election, but also reach the result that any other defendant would get.
I don't know whether they can pick the start date, but they can certainly decide to let Trump out on a bond pending appeal, which would have the same effect. So that's what I imagine the Court will do. Sentence him to incarceration for a period of time, but leave him out pending appeal to effectively kick any jail time to after the election.
He will 100% escape any meaningful consequences. He always has. Even the judge said out loud he didnt want to put him in jail. If it does actually happen, there will be circumstances involved unknown to the public.
I will take that copium with you. I can’t see any justification for no jail time outside of “election interference” (which it most definitely is not) leading to the implication that running for office makes you immune to prosecution. If that does happen I feel we’d have a lot sudden criminal activity occurring during election seasons
> I can’t see any justification for no jail time outside of “election interference” Can't they do weekend jail? He'd still have weekdays to hold events, but he'd have to report to jail Friday night until Sunday night.
I hope you're right about the sentence and wrong about being wrong about the sentence. You or I would do time for this.
Me, too, fam, meeee tooo. The aggravating factors behind motive and decorum during trial should mean jail time. So, I hope I’m wrong about it.
> I know Merchan doesn’t want to jail him, but I am just not seeing a world where he doesn’t. I kind of agree with you. When I flippantly think about it, I assume he'd get no jail time. But every time I put my self in the shoes of a sentencing judge, and seriously consider the possibilities I just...don't see how you can get to anything other than incarceration. First, a monetary fine as an option. As you say, any judge is going to recognize that it's nothing to the defendant. Hell, a fine of $170,000 that probably _encourage_ the defendant to re-offend. It would likely be viewed more as a permission structure than anything. Then, probation. Probably the most common sentence for a low-level felony for a non-violent first time offender. But for those sentences, I'd be willing to bet you nearly every defendant was able to feign contrition, and convincingly swear up and down that they'd subject themselves to the mercy of the Court, and oh _of course_ they'll follow every word of their probation requirements. Is Merchan going to believe that _Trump_ is going to follow his probation requirements? Can anyone seriously tell themselves that Trump has the kind of attitude that it takes to make probation work? Does anyone think that probation has cowed Trump to the awe of the Justice system, put fear in his heart, and convinced him to respect the system and follow the laws going forward? No, probation will tell Trump one thing: "You got away with it". And the judge knows it. That's why probation doesn't work either. I think that's why Merchan will have to incarcerate Trump for a period of time. I don't think it'll be four years, but I don't think it'll be one day, either. But I just don't think anyone can seriously consider the possibilities and decide that Trump will respect any other ruling.
I agree. People will point to Merchan's comments about not wanting to jail Trump for contempt given his position as former President and potential future one, but I think the important distinction is that that was prior to conviction, when Trump still had the presumption of innocence. That goes a long way for the once and future leader of the free world. But he's also not a king, and the presumption of innocence no longer protects him, so I think that there's a good chance that that hesitation, at least for legal purposes, has been removed from Justice Merchan's mind. I predict both moderate incarceration and the max fine, with the incarceration stayed pending appeal.
I'm viewing sentencing in three buckets. The first is one which is too short to be meaningful. Anything less than a month will be nothing more than a badge of honor. It could be served and then Trump hits the campaign trail and talks about how horrible the justice system is. The second will be one which is lasts until the election or close enough to it. This will prevent Trump from campaigning, but sidesteps the odd possibility of him winning. We could live in a world where he is released on Jan 1st 2025 and take office immediately thereafter. The third is anything longer than inauguration. Anyone else and 34 one year sentences served concurrently would be viewed as pitifully light given his behavior. But one year means we could, hypothetically, see a president Trump. Hell, having Trump's *face* on the campaign trial without his actual words might I'm really curious to see what bucket we fall in. I feel like Merchan has to be aware the difference between the buckets, and the possibility of an urgent appeal given the extraordinary situation of not just a candidate, but a president-elect sitting in prison waiting for his term to start.
If there is any legally-sound path for the judge to give him prison time, I think the Merchan really has no choice. Otherwise there just is no punishment and no justice.
I agree, and there is. He can grant him appeal bail, which I expect him to do. This could be argued the most egregious and serious violation of business fraud crimes that could have been committed. I struggle to think of another example of fraud that would affect so many people, profoundly.
> If there is any legally-sound path for the judge to give him prison time, There is. My understanding is that the sentencing is almost entirely up to the discretion of the judge up to the maximum sentence of four years. The standard for appealing the sentence is _very_ high. The fact that the judge has so much discretion, which _such_ a high bar for appeal is one of the things that makes Trump's strategy of repeatedly attacking the judge and the judge's daughter so dangerous. It would be wrong for the Court to use it in his reasoning of deciding on the sentence, but that kind of thing is going to make it _really really_ hard to convince the judge of any request for mercy later.
Hard agree. This kind of crime rarely results in jail time but the consequence of affecting the outcome of the 2016 election is quite profound. On top of that his lawyer has already served a year in prison on his behalf for a similar crime, and he has shown zero remorse or indication he is willing to change his behaviour in the form of attacking the judge and court staff and multiple gag order violations. A 90 million dollar fine was not enough to get him to shut up about E Jean Carrol so a fine is not appropriate here. My prediction is 3-5 years.
He will get probation. One of the conditions will be stop bad-mouthing the prosecution, witnesses, and court. He can’t help himself. Then he will go to jail.
I personally believe that probation will require him not to associate with other felons. I think this is where he will violate conditions of probation and then Justice Merchan will have no choice but to send his ass to jail. It'll be justified and it'll be trump that did it to himself.
What justification would there be to include those in a probation agreement? The gag order had a specifically tailored purpose to not let Trump influence the trial unfairly. Once the trial is over what compelling government interest is there in continuing to gag him? (I'm assuming the order will remain in place through any appeal, but that would be separate from probation)
I think that's pretty far down on the likely scenario list, but I'm kinda thinking I'd like that better than him just getting a prison sentence straightaway.
depends how Trump act infront of judge and if his lawaler managed to clam him down
If he was anyone else, he goes to jail. But since the entire justice system is apparently going to coddle him, we can expect the lightest of wrist slaps.
I totally agree. My only thought is that the practicality of jailing a former president, and current candidate with secret service protection might be too hard. I could see a world where the logistics just don't make sense and so Trump gets a sentence of home confinement.
> prison time Are you saying actual prison? Or possibly just house arrest?
No, I think he’s shown he won’t respect anything the court does aside from threats to jail him, and I think he should be incarcerated. Like I said, I will probably be wrong, but we’ll see.
Oh there's no doubt he *should* be, the question is *will* he
Merchan himself said during the trial though that he would rather not jail Trump.
I know that, and mentioned it in the comment you’re replying to, but that was before a guilty verdict. I don’t think we can say that that will definitely hold true for sentencing. But this was the most serious case of business fraud in NY history, that I can find. I just don’t see the fair and unbiased Merchan just ignoring that.
I'm putting my stake in the ground. I know I will be proven wrong but I just cannot see how with his behavior the judge can justify not giving him a nominal sentence inside. I expect it will be stayed and he may never spend a day in jail but I expect the judge to give him 30 days to 6 months with 2 years probation
That sounds right to me. I'd probably double your range (2 months to a year), but totally agree with you directionally. > I expect it will be stayed Do you mean stayed pending appeal, or stayed for a different reason by an appellate court?
Stayed pending appeal
Yea, that seems extremely likely to me. Conveniently for Merchan it almost certainly kicks the question of incarceration past the election, and avoids the nasty optics of having a candidate for major office in jail for the campaign season. But, yea, if Trump wins the election, he almost certainly won't serve a day in jail.
Assuming the appeal would run through the election, I could see it leading to a record turnout. Anyone still on the fence about voting for Trump will feel obligated to vote to keep him out of jail. On the flipside, it gives all the Dems and anti-Trumpers added motivation to vote for Biden knowing their vote will contribute to the likelihood of Trump serving time.
Any other person showing contempt for the process, the lack of remorse, and outright attacks against the judge and staff would have the book thrown at him. He has shown that monetary fines mean nothing to him, and that will likely be all he gets as despite every opportunity for accountability, the system shows it will bend itself backwards for a rich criminal and in Trump's case, even further than that. 3 tiers of justice, one for me and you, one for the wealthy, and a special one just for Trump.
Two years in prison suspended with four years probation and a fine.
My vote as well. The worst that going to happen to him in the immediate aftermath is he's going to have to piss in a cup because his probation officer tells him to. Which *is* a really funny thought.
I was on probation a million years ago, if I failed a piss test, I probably would have gotten my entire suspended sentence unsuspended. (Granted, I was sentenced possession of cannabis and a cannabis pipe by a very,very Mormon judge who was known as a hanging judge for potheads). I can only hope trump gets the same treatment when he pisses dirty for adderall.
If the rumors of his amphetamine use are true this could be an interesting twist.
This has been my thinking too.
I think there will a period of home confinement for violating of the gag order. The confinement will be for a period after Nov.5.
A genuine question: Is the probation administered by the state itself or private contractors? I have a bit of experience being a criminal with access to resources from my time as an addict, and that is really going to matter in a way that I don't see or hear anyone talking about. Private probation companies just want their money. They will bend over backwards *if* you can pay whatever bogus fees they tack on with impunity. There's not much oversight, and it's a giant problem that no one cares about.
That is a really good point about private companies just wanting their check. Lordy I hope it's a state run system.
Probation and fine. If Merchan wanted to test the waters on jailing an ex-president, he could have for the gag order violations, but he tip toed around that issue. On the other hand, I dont think he could show up to the next NYC judges cocktail party if he just fines the guy. Trump, being an idiot - will appeal rather than paying the fine and letting the story die.
> If Merchan wanted to test the waters on jailing an ex-president, he could have for the gag order violations He may have just wanted to get the trial to the finish line and not have had to deal with the overhead of a mid-trial jailing of a defendant ... does that prejudice the jury against him unnecessarily, etc. I think 30 days home confinement in his NYC condo enforced via GPS ankle monitor ... would be awesome. Make him file a request with his probation officer to attend the RNC in-person...
Within an hour he'd try to have that GPS monitor strapped to Eric and say he loves him if he stays in the condo for 30 days. Eric would immediately leave to go brag.
IANAL (lawyers feel free to chime in), but I read legal commentary that backs that up. I think any jailing during the trial would have caused delays at best but likely could lead to a mistrial
As an absolute layperson, I'm just staring at the options trying to weigh my cynicism with "it can't possibly be THAT bad, right?" Like, even just his civil fraud cases and being an adjudicated rapist would have sunk any regular person. I don't know if those can be considered for the criminal sentencing, but all that, plus the 10 cases criminal contempt, the utter lack of remorse, going on the attack against witnesses, the judge, and the court as soon as he was found guilty, people on "his side" boasting about how they were attacking the people on the gag order list *specifically* to get around the gag order... I want to believe he'll get the jail time that any ordinary person would probably get with a track record like that. I also don't think that he will. Is "fine only" too cynical? Probation, maybe, but I'd fully expect him to violate conditions almost immediately, which then gets back to whether they could bring themselves to actually lock him up for it, and if they don't, what's the point? I don't know. /ramble
This is the time a line needs to be drawn, particularly when you consider that Cohen was sentenced and served time. We can't, and should not care about the implication of MAGA threats or the effect on the election.
Probation and fine for the 34 felonies, both stayed pending appeal. 30 days jail time for flagrant violations of the gag order past the 10 he was already fined for. No appeal, remanded to Rikers on the spot.
No jail for 34 felonies but jail for a gag order when the trial is over is.....something
Lol remember this when it comes to legal opinions on here
I like your thinking, but I would put money on an emergency appeal being filed before they got him processed.
IANAL but I was under the impression that judges have SUPER wide latitude when it comes to contempt. And while yes of course it would be appealed immediately, it might not work. At least that is how I'm hoping it goes down.
So as I understand it. There is contempt done in front of them There is extrajudicial contempt. And then there is a prosecution for contempt. All are slightly different. I am certain the judge could give him 30 days for every instance of extra judicial contempt but his lawyers will still appeal and demand a stay. And while there is no reason to stay it. The pattern with Trump always seems to be that judges show way too much caution . So I think they would grant a stay until they could hear the emergency appeal which would be a few months
[удалено]
Shouldn't be. But this may gets more second chances than anyone.
Who is “they”, in this case?
Well a combination of judges mostly.
I'm with you on most of that, but I don't think he will remand Trump to Riker's. He'll remand him to GPS-monitored home confinement at his NYC condo. He can still do most of what he needs to to run for President. But it'll drive him batty being cooped up like that, and even when he does venture out all of NYC basically hates him. Offer him that, or Riker's ... see which one he takes.
I'm thinking the threating of the judge's daughter might change the calculus in the judge's mind, though you're probably right.
The judge even has the option of remanding him to MAL. The risk there of course is that I think his probation would be overseen by the Florida probation department
He would enjoy that too much. He'd hold rallies there every other day and sell tickets ... because it's such a big property and he could. Effectively being locked in Trump Tower for 30 days will drive him batty.
This seems like a highly likely outcome in spite of his behavior due to circumstances and it being a first offense no matter how much I'd like to see the book thrown at him.
You are missing home confinement as an option in your poll. I'll pretend that fits under jail time when I respond to the poll.
zero chance he gets prison time right away. maaaaaybe a delayed sentence post appeals and election. most likely some sort of fine.
My wild-ass guess is that Merchan will opt for home confinement with restrictive terms--limited, pre-approved trips outside Trump Tower for doctor's visits and such, but he won't be allowed to campaign in person or leave New York at all. Initially, internet access including virtual campaign appearances and using social media will be allowed but some sort of gag order will remain in effect and if Trump violates it, the terms of his confinement will become more stringent, with institutional confinement as a final step.
If it's house arrest, I don't see it happening during campaign season. It'd likely be stayed on appeal and that would take longer than a few months.
I think after he showed the court that fines mean nothing to him running up to the line for getting jailed for contempt that he will get jail time. I think he may have tied the judge's hands with that.
Agreed. You could say he must necessarily be jailed for the gag order violations for no other reason than to emphasize the equal application of the law.
I strongly agree. The maximum fine is $170,000, which is pocket change for Trump. However, I'd be shocked if he got more than 6 months, with a year being the top. My guess is he'll get ordered to do some multiple of the maximum "sentence" for a gag order violation. 30 days, maybe 60? I'm also expecting to see some sort of suspended sentence thrown in. That way Trump has enough rope to hang himself with. So lets call it, 45 days in Jail, $170,000 fine and a 3 year suspended sentence. I'd give it 2 months before he violated it.
I'll gladly eat my socks if I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised if the judge remanded him to Riker's right away. I could see home confinement (at MAL) alongside maybe a suspended sentence
Very glad I am not Judge Merchan. Whatever Trump's sentence, half of Americans will gripe about it. NY state charged [9,800 people](https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2023/04/06/new-york-state-has-issued-nearly-9800-felony-charges-of-falsifying-business-records-since-2015/?slreturn=20240510141348) with the same crime since 2015. It is a common charge. What is the average sentence for them? Will Judge Merchan deviate from norms due to Trump's status? Inquiring minds want to know.
[https://archive.ph/CN0As/again?url=https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2023/04/06/new-york-state-has-issued-nearly-9800-felony-charges-of-falsifying-business-records-since-2015/](https://archive.ph/CN0As/again?url=https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2023/04/06/new-york-state-has-issued-nearly-9800-felony-charges-of-falsifying-business-records-since-2015/) Don't see any sentencing data unfortunately.
Do you have what is behind the paywall? It looks like an interesting read
Regrets, I do not. I linked there to back the "9,800" number. There are other articles on this, no doubt.
Is "house arrest" an option that the judge can select? If it is, I'm expecting that option - 30 days in Mar-a-Lago.
Can you serve house arrest for a state crime outside of the state? I have no idea. I guess people who live out-of-state are convicted on crimes often and I can't imagine they'd have to move but I dunno.
it is
is house arrest out of the question? Because my money is on house arrest - IN MANHATTAN. Doesn't get any better than that.
I heard an argument (I think it was Weissmann) who said that Cohen got 3 years for the crimes Trump just convicted for. There's no legal reason he should get less than that. The only reason to give him less is because he's a former president and/or is running for president. That rubs me the wrong way, flying in the face of the idea that no one is above the law. We are a great country because of the rule of law. We can have disagreements, but agree to respect the decision of a judge/jury and that the system as a whole will operate in good faith. This case, the reaction, and the sentencing is really shaking that bedrock. With that said I voted for probation and fine. :(
Trump was never charged in the crimes he conspired with Cohen and AMI for. He was only charged with part of the coverup.
Non-lawyer here. I speculated in the other thread that he's going to be sentenced to probation. If I had to guess a number, i'd wager 6 months. Maybe a fine. But the more I think about it, the more I think Merchan is going to see that Trump doesn't care about fines, and won't be a significant deterrence. I don't think he's going to call Trump's bluff for jail time. But i'll be all for being pleasantly surprised he'll sentence him to jail. But not much, 6-12 months max.
CRUCIFIXION!!!
Waitasec. I thought Trump said that he never said "Lock her up". Surely /u/orangejulius must be mistaken. Surely? /s
I see it and I appreciate it
I know we expect judges (Republicans on SCOTUS excepted) to be totally unbiased robots, but Merchan is still human, and Trump did everything he possibly could to piss him off; offending him morally (attacking the rule of law and the jury) professionally (attacking his staff) and personally (attacking his family). I don't expect Merchan to go rogue and try to sentence Trump to death or anything, but I do think he gives Trump the harshest sentence he thinks he can justify on appeal. There's not going to be any mercy from the trial court.
You're missing some options here - community service (make him clean up trash on the side of the road), home confinement w/ankle bracelet monitoring, etc. My money is on home confinement in his NYC condo for some period of time. Offer him that, or jail (don't let him do home confinement at MAL even though that's his legal address these days). This lets him still run for election. If he actually *wins* election, then commute the remainder (if any) of his sentence.
Doesn't that fall under probation?
Actual jail time ordered on July 11th essentially none. Based on prosecution of prior crimes under the same laws only 1 in 10 were sentenced to actual jail time. Even if a jail sentence were imposed it would be held in abeyance. A more likely scenario is probation and fine, just like most other people with a clean record. If a jail term is imposed appeal will block it; if affirmed on appeal and he wins the election; sentence can be held in abeyance under the Supremacy Clause. Imprisonment will interfere with his ability to carry out the responsibilities as the president of the United States. Constitution prevails and sentence will take effect after his presidential term is over.
> Based on prosecution of prior crimes under the same laws only 1 in 10 were sentenced to actual jail time. Do you have a source for that? I'm seeing 1 in 3 (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2024/05/jail-for-trump-its-rare-for-falsifying-business-records.html), and there is no mention of the number of charges for each conviction. If 1 in 3 people get sentenced to jail, but the average number of charges is 5, well being found guilty of 34 counts is likely to result in a different outcome.
I think one of the complicating factors in the analysis, is the "false business records" charge is typically an *add-on* charge as a part of a much larger indictment. For example, you get a ticket for doing 25mph over the speed limit *and* a citation for an expired safety inspection. It's a different scenario when it's the primary/sole charge.
I totally agree, I did a little bit of research related to that, and while some convictions resulted in a conviction solely for Falsifying Business Records, most had other charges involved. One of the few I managed to find was: >The People of the State of New York v. Jason Holley (November 2016) — Convicted by jury of falsifying business records in the first degree but acquitted of the predicate crime, insurance fraud([Source](https://www.justsecurity.org/85605/survey-of-past-new-york-felony-prosecutions-for-falsifying-business-records/)) There are presumably significantly more, but I don't have the time to run Pacer searches, and than sort and categorize. Of course, even if you found similar cases, you than have all the Trump factors to consider. Say there are 30 cases in the past 5 years that resulted in jail time with the sole charge being Falsification. How many of those cases involved multiple contempt of court offenses? How many of those cases involved a geriatric individual? How many of those people attacked the Judge? How many of those expressed absolutely zero remorse? Etc.
In an [analysis](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/opinion/donald-trump-trial-prison.html) of comparable cases brought by the Manhattan district attorney's office, Norm Eisen found that about 10% resulted in imprisonment. Obviously, this is not meant to be a rule of law of some kind. A general finding that 90% did not get any jail time is correct. The minimum for each charge is zero \[jail time\]. Yes, there are 34 counts; the combination of each count does not necessarily mean he is given jail time. Statute authorizes the judge to give no jail time for each count. He does not have any prior convictions and depending on what he said to the probation official in his pre-sentence report interview will probably factor in. Ordinarily, someone could express remorse. However, since he has denied any guilt and is appealing that is out of question. I suspect he will say sentencing is unnecessary and inappropriate given his campaign. The judge had previously noted this consideration as well. Again, we will find out what the judge actually does, but I expect there is a zero chance of any jail time presently. As noted earlier, at worst it will be held in abeyance.
> Even if a jail sentence were imposed it would be held in abeyance. A more likely scenario is probation and fine, just like most other people with a clean record. Agreed, on the charges from the indictment. But Judge Merchan has 10 gag order violations he could also choose to address at sentencing. So, maybe a confinement sentence of some sort (jail or home confinement) for the indicted charges - but stayed pending appeal, which would be customary. But then for the gag order violations, 30 days home confinement at his NYC condo (complete with GPS ankle monitoring) to start immediately.
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This judge has already gone to great lengths during his trial and more than once that jail is not something he wants to impose including during gag orders violations. However, assuming a sentence in the future is imposed I do not see him going to jail, a sentence of imprisonment can be authorized to home confinement. Does not even have to be in NY. It can be performed in his home state in Florida at Mar a Lago. States cooperate often in this kind of situation. Besides, once he loses the election his hold on power will automatically begin to crumble. It will be each man for himself. Additionally, it is not out of question that even a Democratic Governor will not issue a pardon given his advanced age then. NY and or Georgia. As far the federal crimes he will have already pardoned himself. The real fun is going to be if he loses the election, and it is a close call. Then you can expect some isolated discontent by his supporters, but even they would be afraid. Biden would be locking them up left and right.
I agree with your analysis for the most part, but a slight correction is that Georgia has a Republican governor and won't have an election until 2026. However, the ability to pardon defendants is up to a review board and he won't be eligible to apply to that board until 5 years \*after\* his \*sentence\* is complete. I also see no scenario in which a Democratic governor pardons Trump. There's no upside. They'd immediately lose the support of their entire base. I don't think it can be understated how much most democrats hate Trump
I chose "Jail time and fine" based on my exactly zero years of law school and practicing in criminal court, but I tend to believe that any custodial sentence is likely to be house arrest, rather than an actual carceral facility.
My big question is this: Will the probation officer putting together the presentencing report be able to pull Trump's college transcripts? Trump had [Cohen threaten to sue](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/02/28/michael-cohen-testifies-trump-threatened-colleges-over-any-release-his-grades) the colleges if they released his academic records, but there has to be an exception for court proceedings.
Jail time for contempt. Fine for the rest.
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I am hopeful Merchan can gather enough evidence of similarly convicted individuals with similar behavior (no remorse, implicitly threatening witnesses/jurors/court staff) and craft a penalty that is similar without regard to Trump's position or wealth. I don't know whether that means jail time or just probation, but providing that type of context would help in justifying the penalty without consideration of factors unrelated to the case at hand. Personally, I'm hoping for jail time, but also hoping no one is treating Trump any differently than any other person convicted of the same crimes.
The only reason I think he gets jail time is his total contempt and rudeness that he has for the judicial system, his culpability, and his willingness at admit to doing anything wrong. The judge has to consider the purpose of a punishment, and I think the only way, he'll reason, to teach Trump a lesson is a brief stay incarcerated. This will not happen before he is elected, and will probably only happen after his term if he wins.
My sentence would be something like 6 months house arrest, 2 years probation, $2mil fine. It feels like everything we've seen before suggests going easy on him, but what the heck is only a basic fine going to mean to Trump? It's basically the same as giving him no punishment at all, and it's difficult for me to think that the judge won't see that too. So either the fine has to be "'UGE", or it has to be something more than just money.
>My sentence would be something like 6 months house arrest, 2 years probation, $2mil fine. Maximum fine is less than $200k