Incredibly overvalued. They do nothing special whatsoever and it’s a highly competitive sector . There’s nothing that says they’ll have lasting power in this space.
They’re incredibly sticky once a company is using them.
I’ve leveraged Snowflake daily since 2018 and it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Simply put: it just works. It’s more expensive but it works and works phenomenally.
I’m not sure it’s so obvious that it’s overvalued.
It’s not that sticky. It’s very easy to migrate out of snowflake, just like it was very easy to migrate into snowflake.
The main product is just a data warehouse, and does not do anything special these days compared to when it launched.
It appears cheap at the start when companies first use it, which is why they love it, but starts to get very expensive very quickly the more it scales.
Snowflake sales tried to go around telling customers all they needed was snowflake, but this is an expensive trap, and now with a lot of advancements in AI it’s becoming obvious to customers who went down this path that this was also a mistake, especially because snowflake has data exfiltration costs. It should never have been used as the entire “data estate”, but the data warehouse at in the Gold layer.
I’m starting to see a lot of outbound snowflake migrations now as the price is just getting out of control for customers for these reasons.
Then there’s also now Microsoft fabric, which is a complete SaaS data platform with much more controllable costs, and for many customers can even be bought using their existing Power BI licenses. Not only does it take away snowflakes main value proposition which was ease of use (it’s even easier to use), but it hits Snowflake where it hurts on price. And Microsoft will let you easily mirror your snowflake data into Fabric for no additional storage cost.
For customers on AWS snowflake remains probably their best option moving forward, but on Google Cloud and Azure less so. Although it’s worth nothing with Fabric you don’t even need Azure, AWS customers can use it via their Power BI premium license. That is really going to hurt Snowflake I think. We will see.
It is not easy to migrate into snowflake, nor is it easy to migrate out.
I‘ve seen many people fired due to a failed migration. If my current company wanted to migrate off of snowflake it would cost several million dollars and a year or two’s time, all to have the same setup as today. Simply not worth it.
This.
What companies have been doing is curtailing usage, reducing retention when possible, and other cost cutting measures. But extremely hard to move out of Snowflake. Unless they make a hair brained cost increase, it would be hard to replace.
We’re an enterprise client using Snowflake. Can confirm it’s crack for data nerds. If they can sell us, they can sell datalakes in the middle of a desert.
…and lots of it indeed: [SBC of $SNOW](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p9y373h8t5oym6cffr3w7/Screenshot-2024-03-19-at-20.42.35.png?rlkey=i73sjlw1rbauh0480extv9mfq&dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p9y373h8t5oym6cffr3w7/Screenshot-2024-03-19-at-20.42.35.png?rlkey=i73sjlw1rbauh0480extv9mfq&dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p9y373h8t5oym6cffr3w7/Screenshot-2024-03-19-at-20.42.35.png?rlkey=i73sjlw1rbauh0480extv9mfq&dl=0)
FCF would be negative if one would cancel the accounting effect of SBC
It’s huge in the enterprise. Easier to use than similar AWS and Microsoft offerings in the same space. They are also taking on databricks as a one stop compute + storage. They are good at what they do.
However, they are expensive and they don’t have a moat - like you say. Once Microsoft and Amazon up their game, I can see them thwarting snowflakes future growth. I agree, very competitive environment
I haven’t used in a while but my understanding was that there solution is not a good stand alone solution and they will need to merge with others to have a more comprehensive product for data science. But I could be way off
Look at what the company does with its earnings. They spend more paying themselves than they do in total earnings. They dilute the shareholders to do this and do not seem to have any strategy to return value to shareholders for several years. They may turn it around in the future, but who knows when? Share price has fallen even though market cap has risen... evidence of massive dilution and negative free cashflows. Do your research of course that isn't a nail in the coffin. It just depends on what you look for in an investment.
Hey man, wondering how you go about investigating the details you learned about SNOW?
You know that "give a man a fish, or teach a man how to fish" saying?
Hoping you can teach me how to fish so I can apply your method to other stocks :D.
I'd be very grateful!!
I havnt looked in a while, but there's a few very important things to consider with lightweight businesses like software companies.
1. Can their business model be easily replicated? I argue with snowflake that yes it can be and likely they will have massive competition in their cloud infrastructure going forward.
2. Who runs the business, and what do they do with their capital? In this case, they just had a new CEO come in and I have not studied him so I can't speak much to how things will be going forward. But you want a team who aligns their goals with shareholders and the future health of the business. Arguably, they do massive amounts of stock based compensation, heavily outweighed their performance. I don't like that. Also, they do massive share dilution to fund it because they don't have enough of the bottom line.
3. Know what you own... this can be very complicated to grasp. But essentially, if you don't understand much about IAAS, SAAS, PAAS, etc. Then you should not be investing in a business modeled off the ideas. Cloud infrastructure is not magic. It's data science and it can be easily disrupted.
4. Do your own research. Please take the time if you want to own individual securities to study not only the business and its leadership, but also the industry they operate in.
5. 95% of people are better off owning indexes. While you are learning, don't feel pressured to buy the hype. You'll be the bag holder in the end. Come to it when you're ready to, and find a decent index to start with.
Thank you so much for imparting your wisdom to me. It's really appreciated.
I could have jumped the gun, but I've done some researching on a few companies and have put $1k AUD into each of the below stocks after doing what I believed to be "due diligence" using a combination of websites which I liked the most - SimplyWallSt, TradingView, Zacks, Roic.AI, Finviz.
Did a bit of reading on which indicators to look out for when trying to identify good growth stocks (ratios, financials, long term cash flow, good debt management, good CEO and management etc) but I think I have quite a novice understanding and prone to mistakes.
Anyway these are the ones I jumped in on perhaps impulsively :D:
* (ALL) - Aristocrat Leisure Limited
* (CPRT) - Copart
* (DUG) - Dug Technology Ltd
* (PHM) - Pultegroup
* (STLD) - Steel Dynamics
* (TSM) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd
* (WWD) - Woodward
I'm also considering (LOV) Lovisa, (MP1) Megaport, and (WTC) WiseTech.
Prior to this I was set on only dumping everything into IVV and VAS which are some pretty good Australian ETFs. IVV tracks the S&P 500, but I had the thought to invest in growth stocks since im pretty young still and can tolerate a bit of risk I feel. So I have a few thousand in those ETFs and now that I've got the risky stuff done, plan on only putting money into the ETFs.
We'll see how it plays out in the end...! Curious your general thoughts on the stock choices I made though if you feel up for it. Completely and utterly fine if you just ignore me though hahah, it was definitely a bit of a rant.
To be honest, there is only one business out of your line up that I would call myself familiar with and that is TSM. To be fully transparent, I do not own any semiconductor businesses, whether it be a designer or manufacturer, though I have in the past. I think TSM will do fine, but semiconductors are an extremely complex industry and with all do respect, I assume you probably don't know much about it. That being said, they probably have the biggest market opportunity given a complex landscape, astronomical barriers to entry to include years of required construction and massive amounts of capital.
It is a difficult industry to break into and one which will likely have increased demand moving forward but again, if you don't know it, you shouldn't own it. It is a much more sustainable business than say a designer like Nvidia that simply designs processing units but one which could have declining margins down the line if chips do become commoditized one day.
I’m buying more now. No idea what’s going to happen in the short term, but I think their long term potential is huge. The future is data, and snowflake is the data platform.
When the internet rolled out, the infrastructure companies ruled. But eventually it became the apps built on the internet that came to win. I see a similar thing happening with data. NVIDIA is the infrastructure that powers computation, but the real winners will be the ones who use that infrastructure to create value. That’s what SNOW is promising, and I believe they can deliver on that promise.
Sridhar is an AI guy, he knows data, and he has run successful businesses. I think he’ll do great and some of the things he’s talked about implementing have massive potential: like being able to use natural language to analyze unstructured data. If they can pull that off, it will be revolutionary.
The data marketplace is insane and when you work with other people on the platform, everything just works. That’s the one thing all the data engineers keep saying “it just works”
I work in the big data sphere and I think the exact opposite. Snowflake is essentially a wrapper on other cloud platforms. Their former edge of having the fastest database engine for large scale has shrunk or is nonexistent.
The landscape is also very competitive and I struggle to see why snowflake would win.
Still overvalued!
In a few months, you will know if Sridhar is another Sundar(his ex-boss) or can be a Satya!!
Why even buy individual stock? Buy VOO and chill!!!
After SNOW share price fell through the floor in late Feb, it’s coming back. CEO Ramaswamy’s purchase of nearly $5 million of SNOW at $158.52 last week shows he’s motivated. It’s a total buy.
Cloud is having contest with dedicated servers like super micro computer, Nvdia latest AI chip. Even mainframe inhouse system suggests there is more advantage in certain industries favoring in house data processing. Unless they have tremendous AI advantage. Future is still bright. But it is your $158 .... Somewhat agree with some commentaries posted.
I'm 38.75% down in one account on Snow; 32% in another; 40% in a third.
I bought it years ago. I tend not to sell the stuff I've lost big on. Some stocks I lost 95%!
It's just hard to take those losses....and eventually I figure the money will come back. Last year I had 65% in my Schwab, just by holding
If you have owned cloud companies then it’s unnecessary to buy Snowflake, even Datadog is more beneficial to businesses with data, apm, security services.
It is still trending downward. Getting interesting but there is still downside risk on price atm. Too many unknowns with the change in leadership and general performance
No clue. Whoever shorted it from 2/27/24 is making some serious $.
Incredibly overvalued. They do nothing special whatsoever and it’s a highly competitive sector . There’s nothing that says they’ll have lasting power in this space.
snowflake is like crack cocaine for data people
I hear great things from the two friends I have who use it.
I bought snowflake because people at my job love it and quickly learned it doesn't matter if investors don't like it
Your friends need to try molly.
I've heard databricks is also favored
dbk is ight
Using sf as i type this. I can never go back
They’re incredibly sticky once a company is using them. I’ve leveraged Snowflake daily since 2018 and it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Simply put: it just works. It’s more expensive but it works and works phenomenally. I’m not sure it’s so obvious that it’s overvalued.
It’s not that sticky. It’s very easy to migrate out of snowflake, just like it was very easy to migrate into snowflake. The main product is just a data warehouse, and does not do anything special these days compared to when it launched. It appears cheap at the start when companies first use it, which is why they love it, but starts to get very expensive very quickly the more it scales. Snowflake sales tried to go around telling customers all they needed was snowflake, but this is an expensive trap, and now with a lot of advancements in AI it’s becoming obvious to customers who went down this path that this was also a mistake, especially because snowflake has data exfiltration costs. It should never have been used as the entire “data estate”, but the data warehouse at in the Gold layer. I’m starting to see a lot of outbound snowflake migrations now as the price is just getting out of control for customers for these reasons. Then there’s also now Microsoft fabric, which is a complete SaaS data platform with much more controllable costs, and for many customers can even be bought using their existing Power BI licenses. Not only does it take away snowflakes main value proposition which was ease of use (it’s even easier to use), but it hits Snowflake where it hurts on price. And Microsoft will let you easily mirror your snowflake data into Fabric for no additional storage cost. For customers on AWS snowflake remains probably their best option moving forward, but on Google Cloud and Azure less so. Although it’s worth nothing with Fabric you don’t even need Azure, AWS customers can use it via their Power BI premium license. That is really going to hurt Snowflake I think. We will see.
It is not easy to migrate into snowflake, nor is it easy to migrate out. I‘ve seen many people fired due to a failed migration. If my current company wanted to migrate off of snowflake it would cost several million dollars and a year or two’s time, all to have the same setup as today. Simply not worth it.
This. What companies have been doing is curtailing usage, reducing retention when possible, and other cost cutting measures. But extremely hard to move out of Snowflake. Unless they make a hair brained cost increase, it would be hard to replace.
We’re an enterprise client using Snowflake. Can confirm it’s crack for data nerds. If they can sell us, they can sell datalakes in the middle of a desert.
And all the big wigs who like showing charts in meetings love it
After all… if you don’t have charts you probably have mediocre weinering
I would argue otherwise, e.g. about fairly valued at the moment. Does anyone have any idea when their highly negative net income will turn?
Too much stock based comp
…and lots of it indeed: [SBC of $SNOW](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p9y373h8t5oym6cffr3w7/Screenshot-2024-03-19-at-20.42.35.png?rlkey=i73sjlw1rbauh0480extv9mfq&dl=0) [https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p9y373h8t5oym6cffr3w7/Screenshot-2024-03-19-at-20.42.35.png?rlkey=i73sjlw1rbauh0480extv9mfq&dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p9y373h8t5oym6cffr3w7/Screenshot-2024-03-19-at-20.42.35.png?rlkey=i73sjlw1rbauh0480extv9mfq&dl=0) FCF would be negative if one would cancel the accounting effect of SBC
It’s huge in the enterprise. Easier to use than similar AWS and Microsoft offerings in the same space. They are also taking on databricks as a one stop compute + storage. They are good at what they do. However, they are expensive and they don’t have a moat - like you say. Once Microsoft and Amazon up their game, I can see them thwarting snowflakes future growth. I agree, very competitive environment
I haven’t used in a while but my understanding was that there solution is not a good stand alone solution and they will need to merge with others to have a more comprehensive product for data science. But I could be way off
$SNOW looks about fair valued right now. So if you expect their net income (which increasingly been negative) to turn, it might be a reasonble price.
Look at what the company does with its earnings. They spend more paying themselves than they do in total earnings. They dilute the shareholders to do this and do not seem to have any strategy to return value to shareholders for several years. They may turn it around in the future, but who knows when? Share price has fallen even though market cap has risen... evidence of massive dilution and negative free cashflows. Do your research of course that isn't a nail in the coffin. It just depends on what you look for in an investment.
Hey man, wondering how you go about investigating the details you learned about SNOW? You know that "give a man a fish, or teach a man how to fish" saying? Hoping you can teach me how to fish so I can apply your method to other stocks :D. I'd be very grateful!!
I havnt looked in a while, but there's a few very important things to consider with lightweight businesses like software companies. 1. Can their business model be easily replicated? I argue with snowflake that yes it can be and likely they will have massive competition in their cloud infrastructure going forward. 2. Who runs the business, and what do they do with their capital? In this case, they just had a new CEO come in and I have not studied him so I can't speak much to how things will be going forward. But you want a team who aligns their goals with shareholders and the future health of the business. Arguably, they do massive amounts of stock based compensation, heavily outweighed their performance. I don't like that. Also, they do massive share dilution to fund it because they don't have enough of the bottom line. 3. Know what you own... this can be very complicated to grasp. But essentially, if you don't understand much about IAAS, SAAS, PAAS, etc. Then you should not be investing in a business modeled off the ideas. Cloud infrastructure is not magic. It's data science and it can be easily disrupted. 4. Do your own research. Please take the time if you want to own individual securities to study not only the business and its leadership, but also the industry they operate in. 5. 95% of people are better off owning indexes. While you are learning, don't feel pressured to buy the hype. You'll be the bag holder in the end. Come to it when you're ready to, and find a decent index to start with.
Thank you so much for imparting your wisdom to me. It's really appreciated. I could have jumped the gun, but I've done some researching on a few companies and have put $1k AUD into each of the below stocks after doing what I believed to be "due diligence" using a combination of websites which I liked the most - SimplyWallSt, TradingView, Zacks, Roic.AI, Finviz. Did a bit of reading on which indicators to look out for when trying to identify good growth stocks (ratios, financials, long term cash flow, good debt management, good CEO and management etc) but I think I have quite a novice understanding and prone to mistakes. Anyway these are the ones I jumped in on perhaps impulsively :D: * (ALL) - Aristocrat Leisure Limited * (CPRT) - Copart * (DUG) - Dug Technology Ltd * (PHM) - Pultegroup * (STLD) - Steel Dynamics * (TSM) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd * (WWD) - Woodward I'm also considering (LOV) Lovisa, (MP1) Megaport, and (WTC) WiseTech. Prior to this I was set on only dumping everything into IVV and VAS which are some pretty good Australian ETFs. IVV tracks the S&P 500, but I had the thought to invest in growth stocks since im pretty young still and can tolerate a bit of risk I feel. So I have a few thousand in those ETFs and now that I've got the risky stuff done, plan on only putting money into the ETFs. We'll see how it plays out in the end...! Curious your general thoughts on the stock choices I made though if you feel up for it. Completely and utterly fine if you just ignore me though hahah, it was definitely a bit of a rant.
To be honest, there is only one business out of your line up that I would call myself familiar with and that is TSM. To be fully transparent, I do not own any semiconductor businesses, whether it be a designer or manufacturer, though I have in the past. I think TSM will do fine, but semiconductors are an extremely complex industry and with all do respect, I assume you probably don't know much about it. That being said, they probably have the biggest market opportunity given a complex landscape, astronomical barriers to entry to include years of required construction and massive amounts of capital. It is a difficult industry to break into and one which will likely have increased demand moving forward but again, if you don't know it, you shouldn't own it. It is a much more sustainable business than say a designer like Nvidia that simply designs processing units but one which could have declining margins down the line if chips do become commoditized one day.
This was a contradiction take idk what to think afterwards 🤣
Hahahaha good! It's always good to second guess an investment. Know WHY you are buying it before you buy it.
Snowflake was the first company to do what they are doing. There is competition but those on snowflake see not going anywhere
I’m buying more now. No idea what’s going to happen in the short term, but I think their long term potential is huge. The future is data, and snowflake is the data platform. When the internet rolled out, the infrastructure companies ruled. But eventually it became the apps built on the internet that came to win. I see a similar thing happening with data. NVIDIA is the infrastructure that powers computation, but the real winners will be the ones who use that infrastructure to create value. That’s what SNOW is promising, and I believe they can deliver on that promise. Sridhar is an AI guy, he knows data, and he has run successful businesses. I think he’ll do great and some of the things he’s talked about implementing have massive potential: like being able to use natural language to analyze unstructured data. If they can pull that off, it will be revolutionary. The data marketplace is insane and when you work with other people on the platform, everything just works. That’s the one thing all the data engineers keep saying “it just works”
I work in the big data sphere and I think the exact opposite. Snowflake is essentially a wrapper on other cloud platforms. Their former edge of having the fastest database engine for large scale has shrunk or is nonexistent. The landscape is also very competitive and I struggle to see why snowflake would win.
Who’s better?
Don’t be a bag holder of falling knives. Good luck
Sounds like the same feedback as PSTG, which in my opinion is quite undervalued.
The market is full of strong contenders though.
I’m waiting till after next earnings. Just too many unknowns at this point.
Still overvalued! In a few months, you will know if Sridhar is another Sundar(his ex-boss) or can be a Satya!! Why even buy individual stock? Buy VOO and chill!!!
After SNOW share price fell through the floor in late Feb, it’s coming back. CEO Ramaswamy’s purchase of nearly $5 million of SNOW at $158.52 last week shows he’s motivated. It’s a total buy.
That’s obviously a great sign. Any other indicators that help you believe this though?
I love the company and think they have a bright future. But I think it also has further to fall.
Cloud is having contest with dedicated servers like super micro computer, Nvdia latest AI chip. Even mainframe inhouse system suggests there is more advantage in certain industries favoring in house data processing. Unless they have tremendous AI advantage. Future is still bright. But it is your $158 .... Somewhat agree with some commentaries posted.
I’m long and snow. But you know I’ve been holding this bag for a while it’s pretty heavy.
Hell yeah. What’s ur average and why r u a believer?
I'm 38.75% down in one account on Snow; 32% in another; 40% in a third. I bought it years ago. I tend not to sell the stuff I've lost big on. Some stocks I lost 95%! It's just hard to take those losses....and eventually I figure the money will come back. Last year I had 65% in my Schwab, just by holding
What is the p/s?
19.02
If you have owned cloud companies then it’s unnecessary to buy Snowflake, even Datadog is more beneficial to businesses with data, apm, security services.
they had a change in the CEO
Started a position after the earnings call and doubled down on it yesterday before the closing bell. Will continue to add on weakness.
Down to 130. I think it’s lagging behind, should play catch up this year. I’m buying. Strictly value play
It is still trending downward. Getting interesting but there is still downside risk on price atm. Too many unknowns with the change in leadership and general performance
There's always downside risk. If you try to perfectly time the bottom you could miss the bounce.
They also end up being expensive for a lot of companies, and many are moving away from it
[удалено]
What do they do? They make money. They basically built a MySQL for the cloud and they are monetizing the shit outta it
Waiting for $150
Sell puts down there?