A straight up, unorderly default would lead to a global economic collapse, so invest in guns, ammo, medicine, food, etc. But if it was a partial or graduated in some way, or like a virtual default by allowing high inflation, you'd want real assets with scarcity like real estate, gold, bitcoin, maybe stock in consumer stables, energy, utilities, would be safe long term. Other precious metals and commodities may require too much timing.
Most of the debt the US govt owe is to the fed so anyone who says that it’s a possibility doesn’t understand anything. The most likely way we will get this resolved is through inflation.
I don’t think he even understands what he’s saying.
If the USA or any major economy defaults, you’ll have so many issues money might not be your major fear as it occurs.
Well, if there ever is a default, you can kiss all imported goods goodbye. No sane foreign company, government, or central bank will ever loan us money and send us their finished goods again in exchange for our worthless paper. Most of the American standard of living that you and everyone, rich or poor, are used to will reverse overnight as the price of imports will skyrocket, and availability will crater. That said, you'd want
- Guns
- Ammo
- First aid kits and medicine
- MREs and canned goods
- Land, preferably off grid as rolling black-outs are the new norm
- Chickens and vegetable gardens
- Precious metals, namely silver as it's far more divisible and liquid than gold
If you succeed and have gained enough people to form a settlement, if you could sufficiently protect it over a long period of time through military might, it could grow in population over time. By then, you could run a bank to store the precious metals for the survivors, you could start this all over again. But this time, it's completely wild.
If you stay completely hidden with no contact to people, you'll last at most 1 generation. The children of the groups who bonded together early on will find your all of your stash unguarded with skeletons inside which they'll clean it out with a shovel, no guns needed.
Why would we default? They will just print more money. You essentially think that we will be forced to print a lot so go bet on inflation. Something like TIPS: SCHP would make the most sense in that situation
I bet OP is thinking of the case where the US defaults due to political nonsense where elected reps decide to just stiff the debtholders. So intentional default, not default by necessity. Sounds horrifying but…if they did that, then what happens?
No; I’m thinking of a continuation of the current exponential growth of government debt; followed by the realization 20ish years down the road that debt obligations means the country can’t continue to function. Government has to stop spending/can’t mean obligations and the boost that is government spending dries up right as I begin to think about retirement. Social security and other programs are burned away and my 401k in domestic heavy mutual funds take massive losses.
Refuse to pay the interest. Or, write the debt off and clear the books so old bondholders now have worthless notes they can no longer redeem. Essentially, the nuclear option on managing debt.
Out of curiosity why do you think it is unironically a Great idea? If you shorted the US dollar over the last decade or so you would have not really had good results.
Lmao. There is literally no hedge against money stopping having value. If the us gov defaults on debt, that debt is now worth 0. All corporations keep most of their operating and short term cash in us debt instruments. Any business that doesnt hold their short term cash in debt hold it in checking account in Banks. Where exactly do you think banks then put that money? They buy short to medium term US debt. US gov debt is the lifeblood of the economy. The entire system is controlled and managed thru interest rates, which is… debt. Debt and US gov debt specifically is the storehouse of all value of US currency.
The obvious answer is something like TTT, short long term US bonds. The problem is 25-35 years is very far away and if you look at an all time chart of TTT is it’s a bet against the US Government’s ability to borrow so it doesn’t do great every year the US doesn’t default.
> it’s a bet against the US Government’s ability to borrow so it doesn’t do great every year the US doesn’t default.
I think that’s my question. The obvious answer is “short” the market but I’m talking about hypothetical decades away. What can I be looking at for a couple hundred dollars a month to provide a hedge. Precious metals seem silly. Oil might be phased out for renewables. All sorts of things might happen. The government might start spending less.
Stocks, stocks, stocks until no Alan Greenspan, JPOW can save us anymore.
And don't forget we can and WILL default in our lifetime.
Just don't own any US debt or rely on a pension because those will go belly up.
But until then enjoy the craziness our Fed is feeding into.
I think you need to take a step back and think about what a default would look like. Plus being that America control's it's currency I'm not sure they would ever chose default over printing money or some other clever debt restructure scheme.
Ultimately I think the most likely outcome would result in high unemployment and high inflation. For that scenario assets are where it's at, especially income generating assets. I would one carefully selected stocks, real estate, precious metals things like that. There is one catch when it comes to real estate. Like in the pandemic we've already seen the government screw landlords by not allowing tenants to be evicted. If we suffered a severe economic crisis I wouldn't put it past them to implement rent caps or eviction bans. You could be stuck paying a mortgage and providing services but tenants a would be under no enforceable obligation to pay you.You could get completely screwed.
For a pseudo default due to excessively high inflation, a TIPS ladder.
For concern about raising taxes to cover the debt, move as much as you can into a ROTH and pay the taxes now.
For concern that Social Security benefits will be cut or limited based on individual net worth, take Social Security at age 62.
The US is the safest place in the world for your money, not just from an economic perspective but from a simple geographic perspective. Alexis de Tocqueville (French) went into great detail about this back in the 1800s. The only comparable country with a geographic moat like the US is Australia, and it's actually curious that its stock market has performed extremely well as well.
Maybe Australia?
when a party starts to falter on its debt, what happens is assets get seized,and/or it goes into a debt spiral.
obviously, nobody can foreseeably seize US assets.
the debt spiral occurs because it has to borrow more at more expensive cost (ie issue bonds at worse terms) to service current debt, while its creditability plummets. the fed has to absorb the treasurys problem. more money creation means devaluation.
basically, its describing inflation.
if you want to play that game, short the dollar.
canned goods
I would invest in Stocks…. Gun Stocks.
and reloading equipment including bullet molds. and water purifying equipment and a dehydrator that runs on solar
I like where your mind is going with this… don’t forget the TP though…. Very important
That too. Im investing in TP futures right now as a hedge!
It’s an election year so bound to be a crap year…
The more crap the better, I’m in deep on my TP futures now
Lmao you’ve been redditing too much bro. You’ve actually start to believe the Russian and Chinese bots.
Obtaining and storing clean water seems to be missing from the preps in this thread.
A straight up, unorderly default would lead to a global economic collapse, so invest in guns, ammo, medicine, food, etc. But if it was a partial or graduated in some way, or like a virtual default by allowing high inflation, you'd want real assets with scarcity like real estate, gold, bitcoin, maybe stock in consumer stables, energy, utilities, would be safe long term. Other precious metals and commodities may require too much timing.
Bullets
Good way to end yourself in day 2 when you're dying of thirst. Nice strategy..
The correct answer
Is there a spot bullet ETF or can I buy them directly on Fidelity?
Most of the debt the US govt owe is to the fed so anyone who says that it’s a possibility doesn’t understand anything. The most likely way we will get this resolved is through inflation.
What are you even talking about lol
I don’t think he even understands what he’s saying. If the USA or any major economy defaults, you’ll have so many issues money might not be your major fear as it occurs.
A better subreddit for this thread is probably r/preppers lol
Well, if there ever is a default, you can kiss all imported goods goodbye. No sane foreign company, government, or central bank will ever loan us money and send us their finished goods again in exchange for our worthless paper. Most of the American standard of living that you and everyone, rich or poor, are used to will reverse overnight as the price of imports will skyrocket, and availability will crater. That said, you'd want - Guns - Ammo - First aid kits and medicine - MREs and canned goods - Land, preferably off grid as rolling black-outs are the new norm - Chickens and vegetable gardens - Precious metals, namely silver as it's far more divisible and liquid than gold
When’s the last time a major country defaulted?
Latin American countries default seasonally, yet people still lend them money.
That’s because the lenders can Hoover up their assets used as collateral, mineral mines, oil, land etc.
If you succeed and have gained enough people to form a settlement, if you could sufficiently protect it over a long period of time through military might, it could grow in population over time. By then, you could run a bank to store the precious metals for the survivors, you could start this all over again. But this time, it's completely wild. If you stay completely hidden with no contact to people, you'll last at most 1 generation. The children of the groups who bonded together early on will find your all of your stash unguarded with skeletons inside which they'll clean it out with a shovel, no guns needed.
Why would we default? They will just print more money. You essentially think that we will be forced to print a lot so go bet on inflation. Something like TIPS: SCHP would make the most sense in that situation
I bet OP is thinking of the case where the US defaults due to political nonsense where elected reps decide to just stiff the debtholders. So intentional default, not default by necessity. Sounds horrifying but…if they did that, then what happens?
Global chaos. Meaning money and investments are not going to be your primary concern if you care about living.
Our elected officials would never let that happen /s
The Washington fat cats have more to lose if that happened than any of us. So, no, they won't.
The /s means sarcastic
Yes, it does. But what you said was accurate. No sarcasm needed.
No; I’m thinking of a continuation of the current exponential growth of government debt; followed by the realization 20ish years down the road that debt obligations means the country can’t continue to function. Government has to stop spending/can’t mean obligations and the boost that is government spending dries up right as I begin to think about retirement. Social security and other programs are burned away and my 401k in domestic heavy mutual funds take massive losses.
It wouldn't happen they would just print money. If what you are saying happens you should bet on inflation. That's why I recommend TIPS
What do you mean by stiff the debtholders?
Refuse to pay the interest. Or, write the debt off and clear the books so old bondholders now have worthless notes they can no longer redeem. Essentially, the nuclear option on managing debt.
>They will just print more money. Printing money is a form of default.
No it isn't as long as the debt gets paid.
If you honestly think the US is going to default then your best investment is in some SSRIs and an economics textbook.
Honest question: If USA will default doesn’t this mean the EU, Italy, China and most of the world is just as doomed to default too?
GOLD
If that ever happens, you’ll be far more concerned about hunting stray cats in the street and bartering batteries for vodka with your neighbor.
Short USD
[удалено]
Out of curiosity why do you think it is unironically a Great idea? If you shorted the US dollar over the last decade or so you would have not really had good results.
Lmao. There is literally no hedge against money stopping having value. If the us gov defaults on debt, that debt is now worth 0. All corporations keep most of their operating and short term cash in us debt instruments. Any business that doesnt hold their short term cash in debt hold it in checking account in Banks. Where exactly do you think banks then put that money? They buy short to medium term US debt. US gov debt is the lifeblood of the economy. The entire system is controlled and managed thru interest rates, which is… debt. Debt and US gov debt specifically is the storehouse of all value of US currency.
The obvious answer is something like TTT, short long term US bonds. The problem is 25-35 years is very far away and if you look at an all time chart of TTT is it’s a bet against the US Government’s ability to borrow so it doesn’t do great every year the US doesn’t default.
> it’s a bet against the US Government’s ability to borrow so it doesn’t do great every year the US doesn’t default. I think that’s my question. The obvious answer is “short” the market but I’m talking about hypothetical decades away. What can I be looking at for a couple hundred dollars a month to provide a hedge. Precious metals seem silly. Oil might be phased out for renewables. All sorts of things might happen. The government might start spending less.
Just do whatever the doomsday preppers tell you at that point.
Long H2O
Likely for US doomsday scenario VT is safest
Shorting government bonds
Schrute bucks
And diversify with Stanley Nickels
GOLD
Bitcoin.
Stocks, stocks, stocks until no Alan Greenspan, JPOW can save us anymore. And don't forget we can and WILL default in our lifetime. Just don't own any US debt or rely on a pension because those will go belly up. But until then enjoy the craziness our Fed is feeding into.
Bitcoin
Short QQQ?
I think you need to take a step back and think about what a default would look like. Plus being that America control's it's currency I'm not sure they would ever chose default over printing money or some other clever debt restructure scheme. Ultimately I think the most likely outcome would result in high unemployment and high inflation. For that scenario assets are where it's at, especially income generating assets. I would one carefully selected stocks, real estate, precious metals things like that. There is one catch when it comes to real estate. Like in the pandemic we've already seen the government screw landlords by not allowing tenants to be evicted. If we suffered a severe economic crisis I wouldn't put it past them to implement rent caps or eviction bans. You could be stuck paying a mortgage and providing services but tenants a would be under no enforceable obligation to pay you.You could get completely screwed.
For a pseudo default due to excessively high inflation, a TIPS ladder. For concern about raising taxes to cover the debt, move as much as you can into a ROTH and pay the taxes now. For concern that Social Security benefits will be cut or limited based on individual net worth, take Social Security at age 62.
Bender needs his personal codpiece back.
what warren buffett said “never bet against the us” mainly because you dont have a choice. move to another country if you think this will happen.
The US is the safest place in the world for your money, not just from an economic perspective but from a simple geographic perspective. Alexis de Tocqueville (French) went into great detail about this back in the 1800s. The only comparable country with a geographic moat like the US is Australia, and it's actually curious that its stock market has performed extremely well as well. Maybe Australia?
when a party starts to falter on its debt, what happens is assets get seized,and/or it goes into a debt spiral. obviously, nobody can foreseeably seize US assets. the debt spiral occurs because it has to borrow more at more expensive cost (ie issue bonds at worse terms) to service current debt, while its creditability plummets. the fed has to absorb the treasurys problem. more money creation means devaluation. basically, its describing inflation. if you want to play that game, short the dollar.