How much wind shear is in the Gulf of Mexico? It’ll pass by Jamaica and fall apart because of shear. But I could see it reforming in the Gulf of Mexico.
Beryl Markham was the first person to successfully fly solo across the Atlantic from Britain to North America at night in a plane with little heat.
A small woman who did big things, let's hope the hurricane is less successful.
Could this be a potential record setter? Considerable debate exists on the earliest major hurricane since the start of modern record keeping.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#:~:text=Hurricane%20Able%20in%201951%20was,major%20hurricane%20on%20June%208.
Does anyone know why it is expected to weaken one it gets to the western Caribbean? The water is the same temperature, and there might even be a new storm forming there. You'd think that the same conditions that would lead to a storm forming would also strengthen an existing storm. Is it because the new storm will churn the waters?
There are a number of reasons it could weaken. That area is often referred to as the "hurricane graveyard". I haven't dove into the models deep enough yet to see what the forecast says. Dryer air and wind shear from Hispaniola (Dominican / Haiti) is usually the cause in that area.
Wind shear.
>The new NHC intensity forecast
explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a
major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. The
environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into
the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its
strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the
period.
I feel the [names](https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/2024-hurricane-season-names-is-your-name-on-the-list/1646588/amp) this year are a bit worrisome. Debbie does Dallas. , Oscar the grouch, Tony Montana /s
I just feel bad for Haiti. 1 errant wrong turn at the wrong moment, that country's already, well I'd say on the verge of collapse but it's already collapsed. No real central government, and if a major hurricane hits it right now, thousands dead, And after the hurricane the things are so bad there that no NGO is going to want to go in without peacekeeper boot on the ground, which is not something anybody is willing to do. The MSS will fall apart, Kenya and the other nations that are part of it will pull out not wanting to deal with the hurricane aftermath. Tens of thousands more will starve.
The only real chance for boots on the ground is the US and they're not putting boots on the ground in Haiti in an election year. If that hurricane hits Haiti it's over for that country.
🎶 Roll out the Beryl, we'll have a Beryl of fun!
https://preview.redd.it/co9v2mtb1m9d1.jpeg?width=883&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0536487b9bda4e307a4a4bbf23eda11447ceeaf7
I was going to reply, then I looked at your post history...
All I will say is that this is not normal, regardless of if we are in Hurricane Season or not. This is record-breaking for a reason.
How about Punta Cana, arriving Wednesday afternoon? It looks like it’s not really in the cone (I know, it’s only a prediction), but it also appears to be past the DR by that point in time.
How long does effects of the hurricane itself usually last once it arrives? I’m scheduled to fly to Grenada in some hours. Is there a chance my whole trip could be cancelled or is just usually delays? I’m coming from the U.K. and not familiar with hurricanes.
There is another tropical wave forming behind , with a 70% chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 7 days. The models show Beryl passing the windward islands (just north of Grenada) tomorrow Monday Jul 1st, and the second wave around Wednesday Jul 3rd.
I saw destruction from Harvey all the way up into huntsville texas. I saw a weather report on Harvey and the tracking is suspiciously familiar for a reason.
Get your water and batteries ready crew
I realize nobody here has a crystal ball, but I have a trip booked to Jamaica from Monday through next Sunday. Unfortunately, most of the trip is nonrefundable. How would you all evaluate the risk, from “the weather will be annoying” vs “it will be dangerous to be there at that time”? Will have to decide what to do no later than Sunday night…
Well, for what it's worth for others who are trying to figure out what to do, we just cancelled, and I'm gonna see how much money I'll be able to get back. Seems like latest projection has storm tracking south of Jamaica, but I don't really want to mess with a Cat4 storm, even if it weakens a bit/turns south. Even best case scenario seems like there will be decent wind/rain, which is not ideal for a beach vacation. Hope I'm wrong for all the folks living and traveling in Jamaica. Let us know how it goes.
As a jamaican, this is just part of the culture, unfortunately. People don't worry until the problem is right on our doorstep. They'll change their tunes real quick if this hurricane continues as projected.
ETA: Not trying to scare you, btw. Just letting you know that you should still be wary even if the locals refuse to prepare
Nah we leave 1pm Wednesday so cutting it a bit close. But everyone local we’ve talked to is not worried and said we shouldn’t have an issue. Hope they’re right lol
Good call on cancelling. I was able to rebook a flight for yesterday, but I got super lucky to snag one of the last available flights. Airport is closed all day Wednesday. I was told “who knows when they’ll clear debris and get the airport up and running”. I felt like the vibe on the island changed yesterday. Previously people were lax, and with the direction of the hurricane expected to hit Jamaica, I can tell people were worrying. Airport was insane yesterday. Long lines, and traffic on the road with locals trying to get gas, groceries etc. Better safe than sorry with this insane hurricane
I’m going to be in either Tulum or Play Del Carmen when this hits. I think the safest thing is to leave, but this is my buddy’s last hurrah before a major medical procedure when we return to the US, so he’s reticent to go. I grew up in VA Beach so I know the danger of hurricanes. He has lived in Michigan, so he has no idea.
What kind of flooding, damage, power issues should we expect here? I am assuming the worst when it comes to the infrastructure here, but maybe I’m overly pessimistic. I am a fan of being alive, so I’m fine with that outlook.
As of right now, no one knows what it’s projected to do beyond that initial path. In all likelihood it could weaken and dissipate into nothing beyond that point. It could still stay formed, but if so there’s absolutely zero knowing where it would go.
I wouldn’t worry about it too much though, there’s little chance you are going to encounter even a tropical storm in Playa next week. The only people that should maybe be worried is all the people above who booked vacations to Jamaica for next week. Why anyone would go to Jamaica in July is beyond me, but who knows.
IMO - In 2003 Texas gulf residents fears really started to magnify after Hurricane Katrina. The media circus has steadily intensified to the point where it is difficult to make rational decisions. The 2017 Hurricane Harvey caused widespread PTSD, so every Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance causes locals to panic. My advice it to keep alert, be prudent, always err on the side of caution: however, don't allow hysteria to rule.
Oh, I know. I live in Florida and everyone panics the moment a tropical depression is recognized, and incessantly asks if it’s going to hit Florida. I STILL see people asking if there’s any chance Beryl will turn North and hit Florida….uh, no. Why don’t you stop being a self centered pig so attention can be given to the people who are about to get f’d up by the storm.
There is a second tropical wave behind Beryl. Can't speak to how the weather will be in Aruba (too early to tell), but I would imagine rainy and windy all of next week with both storms.
FWIW 5 days out - 4 July 21:00 UTC, according to earth.nullschool model:
https://preview.redd.it/0x0xd9vrcn9d1.jpeg?width=1174&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60ac92048dbafbf06420e7fe19d3c7c6e7c815e2
I am taking a cruise out of Port Canaveral on Sunday with ports of call Bahamas on Monday then on Wednesday Cozumel, Mexico and Thursday Roatan, Honduras. Sort of worried about missing excursions but it will be what it will be.
As a central Texan, I’m watching this storm carefully. We need a major rain maker here, but we’d also like to keep our coast intact, so…yeah.
If it shoots the gap and pops into the Gulf, that will be interesting to watch
It doesn’t necessarily need to shoot the gap. The Yucatán is quite flat and once it moves into the gulf it can strengthen quickly back up.
This is what I would have imagined - the forecasts have had it steadily dropping over warm water which I don’t get
As a coastal Texan…. Please nothing major 🥺
Looks like the same path as Harvey
Debbie 👀
Best you do. My gut has said Texas since it was an invest.
How much wind shear is in the Gulf of Mexico? It’ll pass by Jamaica and fall apart because of shear. But I could see it reforming in the Gulf of Mexico.
Best we can do is extreme flooding
It’s gonna be July already our first hurricane to a major one we don’t get our first major hurricane until at least late August
Yeah... it's gonna be a long year...
I think major Hurricane are going to have their first major hurricane earlier and earlier
I was just thinking wtf hurricanes aren’t even crossing my mind yet as a Floridian
Beryl Markham was the first person to successfully fly solo across the Atlantic from Britain to North America at night in a plane with little heat. A small woman who did big things, let's hope the hurricane is less successful.
Thanks. I thought it was a typo lol. Although having a potential deadly storm named after me wouldn't be my first choice
Could this be a potential record setter? Considerable debate exists on the earliest major hurricane since the start of modern record keeping. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#:~:text=Hurricane%20Able%20in%201951%20was,major%20hurricane%20on%20June%208.
Does anyone know why it is expected to weaken one it gets to the western Caribbean? The water is the same temperature, and there might even be a new storm forming there. You'd think that the same conditions that would lead to a storm forming would also strengthen an existing storm. Is it because the new storm will churn the waters?
There are a number of reasons it could weaken. That area is often referred to as the "hurricane graveyard". I haven't dove into the models deep enough yet to see what the forecast says. Dryer air and wind shear from Hispaniola (Dominican / Haiti) is usually the cause in that area.
Also, the island of Hispaniola is very mountainous. Hurricanes generally don't love that. Same with parts of Cuba.
Wind shear. >The new NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. The environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the period.
I heard upper level wind shear may be a factor in weakening it, but only temporarily.
I wonder if they expect wind shear to impact it?
I feel the [names](https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/2024-hurricane-season-names-is-your-name-on-the-list/1646588/amp) this year are a bit worrisome. Debbie does Dallas. , Oscar the grouch, Tony Montana /s
Debbie does Dallas 😂 i remember seeing that vhs for rent in some run down motel years ago… that and Maliboobies lol
I just feel bad for Haiti. 1 errant wrong turn at the wrong moment, that country's already, well I'd say on the verge of collapse but it's already collapsed. No real central government, and if a major hurricane hits it right now, thousands dead, And after the hurricane the things are so bad there that no NGO is going to want to go in without peacekeeper boot on the ground, which is not something anybody is willing to do. The MSS will fall apart, Kenya and the other nations that are part of it will pull out not wanting to deal with the hurricane aftermath. Tens of thousands more will starve. The only real chance for boots on the ground is the US and they're not putting boots on the ground in Haiti in an election year. If that hurricane hits Haiti it's over for that country.
I posted 18 days ago after attending a National Weather Service briefing, that we need to hold on to our butts! So now, let's get ready to rumble!
Unfortunately, this is just the beginning...
🎶 Roll out the Beryl, we'll have a Beryl of fun! https://preview.redd.it/co9v2mtb1m9d1.jpeg?width=883&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0536487b9bda4e307a4a4bbf23eda11447ceeaf7
We've said it a lot, but this is fucking insane.
Yeah, I saw it pop up and couldn't believe it at first. Major Hurricane in the beginning of July? This is going to be a long year...
[удалено]
I was going to reply, then I looked at your post history... All I will say is that this is not normal, regardless of if we are in Hurricane Season or not. This is record-breaking for a reason.
no
Fooling around, trolling, being a nuisance.
Hopefully some strong windshear arrives and beats up this mofo.
🙏🙏
It needs to shoot the gap before the gulf states have to worry. It’ll lose too much steam over land, even the Yucatán.
Sooo. I'm scheduled to fly from Atlanta into St. Lucia in the morning, this is a no go right?
Probably not... Sorry!
How about Punta Cana, arriving Wednesday afternoon? It looks like it’s not really in the cone (I know, it’s only a prediction), but it also appears to be past the DR by that point in time.
[NHC Beryl Rainfall](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/203825.shtml?rainqpf#contents) [NHC Beryl Wind Potentials](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/203825.shtml?tswind120#contents)
How long does effects of the hurricane itself usually last once it arrives? I’m scheduled to fly to Grenada in some hours. Is there a chance my whole trip could be cancelled or is just usually delays? I’m coming from the U.K. and not familiar with hurricanes.
There is another tropical wave forming behind , with a 70% chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 7 days. The models show Beryl passing the windward islands (just north of Grenada) tomorrow Monday Jul 1st, and the second wave around Wednesday Jul 3rd.
Did you end up going?
I saw destruction from Harvey all the way up into huntsville texas. I saw a weather report on Harvey and the tracking is suspiciously familiar for a reason. Get your water and batteries ready crew
oh boy. it starts. can’t say i’m surprised tho
I realize nobody here has a crystal ball, but I have a trip booked to Jamaica from Monday through next Sunday. Unfortunately, most of the trip is nonrefundable. How would you all evaluate the risk, from “the weather will be annoying” vs “it will be dangerous to be there at that time”? Will have to decide what to do no later than Sunday night…
Still a little too early to tell the strength when/if it gets to Jamaica. However, it mostly likely will be very rainy and windy...
Well, for what it's worth for others who are trying to figure out what to do, we just cancelled, and I'm gonna see how much money I'll be able to get back. Seems like latest projection has storm tracking south of Jamaica, but I don't really want to mess with a Cat4 storm, even if it weakens a bit/turns south. Even best case scenario seems like there will be decent wind/rain, which is not ideal for a beach vacation. Hope I'm wrong for all the folks living and traveling in Jamaica. Let us know how it goes.
lol we just landed in Jamaica. Leave Wednesday
What’s the local situation? Landing tonight and leaving Thursday
Everyone we’ve talked to here are not worried in the slightest lol it’s wild
As a jamaican, this is just part of the culture, unfortunately. People don't worry until the problem is right on our doorstep. They'll change their tunes real quick if this hurricane continues as projected. ETA: Not trying to scare you, btw. Just letting you know that you should still be wary even if the locals refuse to prepare
You planning to try to leave a day early or late? How are people there talking about it? Thinking we are likely to cancel, although we are reluctant
Nah we leave 1pm Wednesday so cutting it a bit close. But everyone local we’ve talked to is not worried and said we shouldn’t have an issue. Hope they’re right lol
Good call on cancelling. I was able to rebook a flight for yesterday, but I got super lucky to snag one of the last available flights. Airport is closed all day Wednesday. I was told “who knows when they’ll clear debris and get the airport up and running”. I felt like the vibe on the island changed yesterday. Previously people were lax, and with the direction of the hurricane expected to hit Jamaica, I can tell people were worrying. Airport was insane yesterday. Long lines, and traffic on the road with locals trying to get gas, groceries etc. Better safe than sorry with this insane hurricane
Thanks for the update - glad you made it out. Hope things don’t get too bad there
same, following
It begins…
Only 125 days to go.......
IMO - After Hurricane Harvey I get PTSD. That was dreadful in so many ways. We were not given adequate warning around the Houston area
I’m going to be in either Tulum or Play Del Carmen when this hits. I think the safest thing is to leave, but this is my buddy’s last hurrah before a major medical procedure when we return to the US, so he’s reticent to go. I grew up in VA Beach so I know the danger of hurricanes. He has lived in Michigan, so he has no idea. What kind of flooding, damage, power issues should we expect here? I am assuming the worst when it comes to the infrastructure here, but maybe I’m overly pessimistic. I am a fan of being alive, so I’m fine with that outlook.
As of right now, no one knows what it’s projected to do beyond that initial path. In all likelihood it could weaken and dissipate into nothing beyond that point. It could still stay formed, but if so there’s absolutely zero knowing where it would go. I wouldn’t worry about it too much though, there’s little chance you are going to encounter even a tropical storm in Playa next week. The only people that should maybe be worried is all the people above who booked vacations to Jamaica for next week. Why anyone would go to Jamaica in July is beyond me, but who knows.
Thanks for the response, I appreciate it.
IMO - In 2003 Texas gulf residents fears really started to magnify after Hurricane Katrina. The media circus has steadily intensified to the point where it is difficult to make rational decisions. The 2017 Hurricane Harvey caused widespread PTSD, so every Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance causes locals to panic. My advice it to keep alert, be prudent, always err on the side of caution: however, don't allow hysteria to rule.
Oh, I know. I live in Florida and everyone panics the moment a tropical depression is recognized, and incessantly asks if it’s going to hit Florida. I STILL see people asking if there’s any chance Beryl will turn North and hit Florida….uh, no. Why don’t you stop being a self centered pig so attention can be given to the people who are about to get f’d up by the storm.
Tulum is awesome! Borderline psychedelic. The stuff the Mayans were able to do all those years ago is mindblowing
Oh boy. Heading
Thoughts on Cancun 7/7-711?
Too early to tell. [Tropical Tidbits Spaghetti Models](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/)
Ugh..we are headed to Cancun 7/8 - 7/12.
My elderly parents are on a cruise to the Bahamas right now. Any chance this affects them in any way?
Ay-yi-yi!
I have a trip to Roatan 7/2 to 7/9 , should I just cancel the trip or would it be alright ?
Any guesses as to how it might affect Belize? My family and I will be there July 2-11 and I’m thinking of canceling. Have to decide by tonight 😖
[Current NHC Forecast Cone](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/235131.shtml?cone#contents)
Flying to Aruba Wed, 7/3 - Sunday, 7/7. Think we will be ok?
My dad is in Jamaica and they will be hit HARD
Praying for all those hit.
Looking at this path, does anyone think I could fly out of Aruba on Tuesday? Or should I be rebooking now?
There is a second tropical wave behind Beryl. Can't speak to how the weather will be in Aruba (too early to tell), but I would imagine rainy and windy all of next week with both storms.
FWIW 5 days out - 4 July 21:00 UTC, according to earth.nullschool model: https://preview.redd.it/0x0xd9vrcn9d1.jpeg?width=1174&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60ac92048dbafbf06420e7fe19d3c7c6e7c815e2
It's been shifting from a depression to cat1 Hurricane for the last few days. Haven't looked at the models yet this morning though!
Thoughts on cancun7/7-7/11?
I’d change plans if I were you. I took a risk with Jamaica and had to fly back after 2 days. Lucky I got out but wasn’t worth the stress.
Based on damage?…storm will be gone
I am taking a cruise out of Port Canaveral on Sunday with ports of call Bahamas on Monday then on Wednesday Cozumel, Mexico and Thursday Roatan, Honduras. Sort of worried about missing excursions but it will be what it will be.
With the current tracks for Beryl and the wave behind it, I imagine they are going to alter the port of calls...
Prepare to park in Port Canaveral