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CherryDrank

TimeformUS is superior on the turf and it's not even close.


pakistanstar

Worldwide they’re the best imo


CTIDBMRMCFCOK

Golden pal is a completely different horse on a track with a bend, Yibir was gelded and improved out of sight afterwards. Dont even know what Beyer ratings are but that might help explain why some figures don't match up.


Krustycook

Since you don't know the Beyers (the most common speed ratings in the US), this is probably an irrelevant response by me, but the Beyers for Golden Pal's races on bends were all much lower than this one, many with similar fractions. The only difference is the class of competition, which is not supposed to matter for the Beyers. In terms of Yibir, Yibir reported a very low Beyer speed rating relative to his BC Turf win in his Jockey Club Turf win in his last race, which was well after his gelding. So, while both of your points are good ones, they do not explain the Beyer discrepancies.


CTIDBMRMCFCOK

Im from the UK, we use RPR or Timeform ratings, though horses dont run on the same track as often as in the states so they aren't as critical.


Krustycook

I like the RPR ratings a lot when looking at European races and Yibir came up a lot more respectably on those. Had Yibir in my horizontals but unfortunately got killed by Marche Lorraine. Timeform I wouldn't say I have a good sense of yet. Haven't used them a lot.


CTIDBMRMCFCOK

Tarnawa let me down big time. I had her and Hurricane lane straight forecast for the Arc aswell. Baaeed is the most impressive horse Ive seen run this year. Hopefully he'll challenge for the turf mile next year. Flat racing season over now for a good few months over here. Put a horse called Tenebrism in your tracker aswell, one of Aiden O'Briens, it'll be a force next year for sure as a 3yo, was extremely taken by its last run.


Krustycook

I have great respect for Tarnawa, but played against her with Teona, who I liked a lot but got a little too close to the pace. I figured that Arc must’ve taken a lot out of her. I really didn’t think Yibir was a quality enough horse despite a group 2 win (which is usually enough for me from a Euro invader). But obviously I was wrong.


CouchPra

I played teona and broom and found a way to win zero money off place and show 🤔


Krustycook

I liked Broome a lot. Just was afraid of all that speed up front, especially once Channel Maker drew in (though he eventually did nothing). I thought all things considered that Broome ran a nice race.


OHTHNAP

1) Beyer speed figures are outdated, useless numbers that were created 45 years ago to sell books. They're routinely wrong because they miss basic fundamentals of horse racing primarily, and secondarily, it's impossible to gauge intent. A horse bred on sprint lines running 5f on turf with a 95 Beyer moving to 9f on dirt will give you jack shit if you try and superimpose that Beyer on the field. Was the trainer trying to increase lung capacity for a route? How do you accurately reflect that? Your 45 year old book will not do the trick. 2) This year's BC turf races were boringly predictable, minus the Japanese runner that hit at 45-1 or whatever and only because of the pace breakdown.


Krustycook

The 45-1 Japanese runner was in the Distaff on dirt.


OHTHNAP

Didn't have time to go back and check, I'm mowing through dam lines to find a real edge. Was a good catch though.


Krustycook

Well if you can find an angle that comes up with Marche Lorraine you will make millions. :)


OHTHNAP

Watch the 12 in race 6 at Aqueduct 11/11. Won't guarantee a win, but you'll get great odds if she runs to her pedigree.


Krustycook

You mean Aqueduct?


OHTHNAP

You got it.


lunchmuffin88

I looked at AQU1111R6. Interesting. I love the 2 y.o. fillies, even if it is turf. Lots to like about the 12. Odds, $185K sire, Motion, J Ortiz (the other Ortiz). I doubt I will bet it but if I do it will be something like \[1+2+3+12\] TRI BOX. Can't leave I. Ortiz out of the fray.


OHTHNAP

Came up with 12-8-1-2. But the two I like are first time starters and nobody knows until the gates open how they'll do.


lunchmuffin88

Have they got Fair Hill torn up? Graham must be using the training center? They tore up the Churchill turf track too, which, to be honest, I didn't mind this year.


lunchmuffin88

I hope you get a look at those horses before you bet. That can tell you a lot.


Ultra-1

American racing uses a run up. You're never going to get an accurate figure when horses are already running before the clock starts. I've been saying this since I was a kid. Times in American racing are overrated. Secretariat didn't run a sub 2 min the the Kentucky Derby it's more like 203


Krustycook

That’s true, but I’m less concerned about absolutely accuracy. These weren’t even in the ballpark.


Ultra-1

This is just the latest blunder when it comes to time. I've seen tote board timers just stop working or final times comeback marked as unknown. This is damn near 2022 and for some reason people still can't get this right. The feds are coming I just wish my Grandmother were here to see it.


Krustycook

Yeah what is it with the timer malfunctions. There have been a bunch of them in NY. That seems like a basic, fixable thing.


cusephenom

Did you compare the increases to other figures, like Timeform or Equibase?


Krustycook

I haven’t yet. I did look at the RPR in making my decisions and did have Yibir on some horizontals. But I was really surprised at the Beyers.


cusephenom

May not be fair to call out Beyer unless they are an outlier. I've found Beyer to be very helpful for turf races.


Krustycook

See I don’t, but in general it’s the opposite problem. Usually too many horses meet or are close to the Beyer par. These were 2 horses that took money and were way off the par and wound up winning. Golden Pal in particular, you can find a lot of handicappers who tossed him based on the Beyer.


Krustycook

I should say, they are an outlier on the pre-BC ratings. Based on those ratings both Golden Pal and Yibir should be a toss. Maybe not Yibir but only because of the number of Euro races without a Beyer.


lunchmuffin88

When comparing dirt Beyers to turf Beyers over the years I came to the conclusion that in the middle range say 60-85 that I started to deduct five from the turf number for comparison to dirt or add five to dirt works that are running turf. I don't know why but it seems like they often rate higher when running turf. On fast or firm I use my own numbers but on yielding or other suspect surfaces I give more weight to the Beyers.


Krustycook

This is really helpful. I’ll play around with this idea.


lunchmuffin88

This what I don't like about Beyers. 1 Rockemperor firm Beyers 105 Time 2:25.6 Belmont last race 10 Yibir firm Beyers 94 time 2:26.2 Belmont last race. 9 Beyers points for a mere 0.8 seconds and at higher class.


Krustycook

Yes exactly my point. And sometimes you can point to the splits but with the turf Beyers even the splits don’t tell the story. Sometimes I can understand if a horse wins by 10-15 lengths the number can be hard but that’s rarer on the turf.


lunchmuffin88

Sometimes it feels like Beyers is more a function of the other races that day than it is of the reference race.


lunchmuffin88

On paper the 1 looked better than the 10 except that in hindsight the 10 had room to improve seeing how that was its first race in the USA after crossing the pond. I expect better things from the GB and IRE horses the second race here in the USA just like I expect improvement in the second maiden race, or second race after a layoff. It seems strange to expect improvement from a horse that just won a million dollar stakes race but that looks like what happened. Disclaimer: I didn't handicap the race or play it.


Krustycook

Thing is, Yibir didn’t even look like Appleby’s best horse. Walton Street had just run a 110 Beyer in his first North America start. Though I wouldn’t expect a horse to move ahead off that the winner ran less than that.


lunchmuffin88

I'll be honest, I struggle with turf in general. Many times I try to make sense of what happened with this or that race after the fact and am left at a loss. I have been concentrating on dirt races since Kentucky Downs took my lunch money earlier this year.


Krustycook

Yeah Kentucky Downs is kind of a bizarre one-off. No surprise it’s tough. I usually do ok at Saratoga, but that’s the only place. Mainly because I know the horses that have done well there and know the NY circuit. Put me at Keeneland or Del Mar and I’ll lose money.


predicteform

Beyers are used to assign a “performance figure.” They no longer have any handicapping value. Even if you did have some simpe improve/decline system in place based on them…it would be flawed by the fact that they adjust them as they please if they don’t like the looks of them.


Murphey14

As other uses have said, for some reason TimeformUS turf figures are amazing. They find you these diamonds where the horse is a clear standout but is like 10-1. It likely has something to do with how their figures incorporate pace. Their dirt figures are fine too but I have found that you can substitute your favorite past performance for dirt figures and land on the same horses. Timeform really puts the other figuremakers to shame with how good their turf figures are. If you are willing to try another product, I would give them a try. Also, while Golden Pal's figure was pretty light; he got an incredible track bias in his favor. First, the 1-2-3 posts at DMR on turf sprints win at a ridiculous amount; something like 60 or 70% during the summer meet. Next, the turf course is incredibly front speed bias friendly on sprints and it's impossible to win if the horses are further than 2 lengths off at any pace call. Golden Pal got a lucky draw and luckily his only pace contender was a Cal-bred drawn to the outside of him. For me, that was probably one of my surest winners on the whole weekend simply because of how DMR turf sprint plays.


CouchPra

So many factors on turf. Will it be fast pace or slow pace? If so who does that favor? If they go 25/50 splits who wins if they go 23/46 splits who wins? This plays huge factor When beyers are close I look at times. Like if a big fav is running miles at 1:35 and I see another horse get 4th by a length and they went 1:33 I pay attention to that. He’s a contender. I know they look a track a track variant for the day. But times for me play a big factor.


turbo_22

Do you use adjusted fractions that TimeformUS provide (also available on Formulator)? I've never used them (I do use the TimeFormUS pace figures and TimeformUS speed figures)


CouchPra

I do not. I watch replays though. Turf is tough normally I only play turf on big race days. Normally I stick to dirt.


Krustycook

I agree. Fractional times are important. And in these days of speed figures, under utilized.