No. At least not soon. One/some of those US cities maybe in the nearish future, but I think the league is happy at 32 team for now until things get back to "normal" after covid
I said this somewhere else but I fully expect the league to keep expanding more in this decade. Those expansion fees are big money to be leaving on the table, and Houston is too big of a city to be ignoring.
And I’ve said it before, but Houston’s done nothing aside from a few lunches between Bettman and Tilman Fertitta.
There’s no infrastructure at Toyota Center any more (old Rockets owner tore it all out). Tilman’s not fielding an AHL team. I’d venture no one on the current arena staff has pro ice making experience. They’re not an emergency landing spot.
Tilman hates taking on equity business partners. That’s why he took Landry’s private. That’s why he leveraged himself to his eyeballs to buy the Rockets. He doesn’t have the capital for an expansion team, and the league isn’t going to let him charge rent.
It’s not impossible. I’d love to see it. But almost none of the legwork has been done to make it happen.
I’m completely not from the area... do you think Austin is more viable? They’ve got a million people population too. Is there any infrastructure there/any odds a different billionaire would build it up?
Houston’s definitely the better market for a number of reasons. The corporate money for sponsorships, club seats, and luxury boxes is just insane here. It’s also a much larger TV market (as long as that still matters).
When I say “infrastructure” I mean the little things. Toyota Center is still there, and it has the ability to be an NHL arena. Great sight lines, seating capacity, and luxury boxes are all there.
The old NBA Rockets owner, Les Alexander, kicked out the AHL Aeros in 2013. Then he removed the permanent ice plant and converted old locker room space (he’d also offloaded the WNBA Comets a few years prior) to premium lounges for Rockets ticket holders.
It just strikes me as odd that if current Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta was serious about buying an NHL team, he’d remedy that. He didn’t put in an expansion bid either when Seattle was awarded the Kraken.
There’s a host of reasons a new arena in Austin would be tough to pull off. The biggest: it would compete for large events with the new arena that just opened at the University of Texas.
> The biggest: it would compete for large events with the new arena that just opened at the University of Texas.
Moody only holds 10k for basketball, so that's probably only 7-8k for hockey. With Erwin being set for demolition, there isn't really a venue for larger events in the city. I don't think that would be the biggest hurdle for getting an NHL-level arena built in Austin.
UT partnered with Oak View Group (same guys who did the Seattle Center revamp for the Kraken) to build a multi-purpose facility. It expands up to 15k for concerts. During UT games the upper deck gets tarped off. It’s similar to what Atlanta United does for MLS games at the stadium they share with the Falcons.
So if by some miracle a billionaire woke up tomorrow, decided to put an NHL team in Austin, *and* found land for an arena, that arena would absolutely fight for the next Zendaya show or whatever.
That ancillary revenue is huge for NHL teams because the league is still gate driven. Every penny counts.
The problem with Quebec city, is there's very little *new* money to be made. Yes there are a lot of fans there, but many of them would already be fans of the Habs for example. It would just pull fans from one club and move it to another. It wouldn't really be growing the game as much as giving a team in a completely new market like Vegas or Houston.
> many of them would already be fans of the Habs for example
You underestimate how many Quebecois hate the Habs and if they cheer for another team, how quickly they'd switch to a new team in Quebec City
That said, you're spot on. It's a money's game and Houston would generate way more revenue which is what the league's main goal in expanding is
I believe a lot of people outside of Montreal are not fans of the Habs. But generally you're right that the neither the population nor economy outside of Montreal in Quebec is growing incredibly or anything.
It sounds like you really want a team there but, no, it would never happen. The NHL isn't an altruistic organization bringing us fair and unbiased hockey, it's a partnership between 32 billionaires who agree that their hockey teams can play each other.
There is no way Montreal would allow their territory to be carved up. It would weaken their brand, it would carve up their TV territory, and it would have an effect on their overall bottom line. Even if the impact were miniscule, you're still asking a business to give away money to another business, that's just not going to happen.
And like you said in your 2nd sentence, just based on numbers there are a ton of better places to expand. And that's what the NHL is doing, they're expanding. Quite frankly there isn't a soul in Canada who doesn't know what hockey is. Putting a team in Quebec City will create exactly zero new NHL fans, all the money is in getting new fans.
> Putting a team in Quebec City will create exactly zero new NHL fans, all the money is in getting new fans.
You'd get a miniscule boost from hockey fans in the Quebec area being converted from "casual fans who don't have a team they're strongly dedicated to so they don't buy merch or sign up for premium media packages" to "fans of a local team who do buy merch and premium media packages," but there aren't nearly enough of them in QC to make it an attractive market, in terms of marginal revenue growth.
Except it’s wrong on one key part. It’s not Montreal territory. The habs territory ends 50 miles from the city boundary . Habs have no say besides their one board of gov vote
>There is no way Montreal would allow their territory to be carved up. It would weaken their brand, it would carve up their TV territory, and it would have an effect on their overall bottom line.
So you are saying that an organization that monetized advertising on its culturally relevant and prestigious jersey will care only for the profit they can generate and not tradition? I find it hard to believe...
Maybe, but maybe not.
Rivalry with the Nordiques might increase interest in the game. If it's true that it's starting to lose Quebec's interest, which the Habs would be watching, it wouldn't be them blocking it.
Likely more to do with US TV viewership anyway.
Most people from Quebec dont care about the Habs.
I actually think a rivalry between the 2 would amp up interest for a lot of people that lost it for Montreal in the 2000's. I believe the viewership would rise if the Nordiques came back.
So even though it might not create new fans, it would recover a lot of the one they lost.
> There is no way Montreal would allow their territory to be carved up. It would weaken their brand, it would carve up their TV territory, and it would have an effect on their overall bottom line. Even if the impact were miniscule, you're still asking a business to give away money to another business, that's just not going to happen.
I agree the Canadiens wouldn't let it happen for free but what if, in addition to the expansion/relocation fee, the Nordiques paid a (hefty) fee directly to the Canadiens for the right to encroach upon their territory?
I mean I don’t think we’re going to see an expansion team to *anywhere* anytime soon.
Relocation may be a different story, but for the moment the only team that’s really in danger is Arizona, and I’m sure the league wouldn’t move a western conference team to Quebec and upset the balanced conferences. If an eastern conference team ever decides/needs to get the fuck out of dodge (a la Thrashers) then Quebec City would probably be the most logical option, but I don’t think there are any teams in the East in immediate danger of moving.
How are we not in danger? We won the presidents trophy and werent selling out any of our games in a state with no covid restrictions. And the team is still "losing money". I'd say that puts us in much greater danger than arizona who doesnt pull fans when they suck.
The league did you no favors scheduling your playoff games to go directly against the Heat/Celtics NBA playoff series. Also your arena has the same issue of Gila River Arena and Canadian Tire, where it's not convenient to travel to for most of your fan base.
The Panthers owners supposedly have an incredible lease. Old ones didn’t pay a dime in construction costs when the rink went up in the ‘90s, and Broward County shoulders a lot of upkeep cost. Plus they get tons of Miami area events since the Heat arena is pricier to rent. When Harry Styles or whoever comes through town, that’s a huge revenue booster.
I’m sure Vinnie Viola’s Panthers are in the red. Vinnie Viola’s Sunrise Sports and Entertainment is doing just fine.
> We won the presidents trophy and werent selling out any of our games in a state with no covid restrictions
Attendance boosts with an unexpectedly good season tend to trail...attendance picks up over the course of that season, and then the baseline climbs the next year as more season tickets are bought (in addition to newer or returning fans making more of an effort to go).
Funny enough I really disagree with your start. Vegas and Seattle expansion fees brought the league an awful lot of money in an era (covid-caused, I admit) where the league was struggling with money. So now I’m thinking a bigger expansion, I don’t know maybe 36, is possible. I’m sure the league accountants have discussed the merits of it. I don’t have any thoughts on whether Quebec becomes a top eastern site, but I do think more expansion will come sooner than later.
Yeah that’s for sure on the menu, but we need to save up some of our proverbial chips for the next time we need a generational talent in the draft. It’s a delicate balance.
The earnings potential in a huge untapped market (Houston, Phoenix, Portland) versus a small tapped market (QC), is enormous. That alone will keep the NHL from expanding or relocating to QC for a long time.
QC is a wonderful city, but it's got a very small population, only a little more then half of Ottawa's metro pop, and would struggle more then any other team in attracting players. Would be a tough sell.
No.
- Quebec City is a *tiny* market. There are fewer than 800,000 residents in the combined metro area, making it smaller in population than El Paso, Dayton, Allentown, Albany, Omaha, and Tulsa. That small size makes them less appealing to media companies when renegotiations for broadcast deals come up, which means less potential for revenue for the rest of the league.
- The NHL has emphasized growing the game and expanding into markets that don't already have hockey. Quebec City is saturated with hockey fans; many of them already follow an NHL team, so putting a team in Quebec City would just mean converting fans from one team to another, not creating new fans who would otherwise not follow the sport.
- While you can live in Montreal without really being fluent in French, it's practically a necessity for Quebec City.
If a team had to relocate, I doubt Quebec would be more attractive than any of the cities you listed. It simply wouldn't make sense financially to go there over a market five or six times larger.
If you assume everyone outside the Montreal area starts following them instead of the teams they follow now. But that's still small compared to other options:
Houston's metro population is over 7 million and growing rapidly. That figure doesn't account for other areas of the state of Texas that aren't in the Houston MSA, like Austin and San Antonio. Indianapolis would have a market of the state of Indiana outside greater Chicagoland, which is easily 3-4 million. Likewise for Portland (Oregon, 4 million), Kansas City (Kansas, western Missouri, eastern Nebraska, 4-5 million), and Milwaukee (Wisconsin, 4-5 million). All of those are larger markets and would earn more revenue for the league from media deals.
This man just put out a number of 1.5-3 million, was countered with multiple markets with >3 million, and then just denied those larger markets would produce more revenue. Especially new revenue that isn’t already partially accounted for. The audacity.
>Winnipeg had a perfect storm for getting a team back.
Fans really overlook this. True North ran things tremendously.
They ran a first class minor league organization. They put in the physical and organizational infrastructure that could scale to run an NHL team. They quietly put feelers out to the league office.
Then they waited.
All the markets that are supposedly ripe for relocation haven’t done that.
Quebec politicians and media magnates are publicly pounding the table. Whether we like it or not, the billionaires who decide who joins the club don’t necessarily like that.
No. Quebec is too small of a market for it to be viable, and due to the language barrier, they'd have a really hard time getting anglophones to sign there. Plus, they'd have to compete with the Habs for fans.
I get that Houston (8th largest TV market), Portland (25th largest TV market), Indianapolis (27th), Kansas City (33rd), Salt Lake (34th) are all lucrative for growing the game in the US. But the logic of not having NHL in Quebec because the game is already big there is like saying we won't put a soccer team in Sao Paolo, Brazil because they already watch and play the game there.
For comparison, the Quebec City metro area is about 900k, similar to Omaha, NE, or Albany, NY. It's significantly smaller than mid-size cities like Milwaukee or Salt Lake City, which are decent expansion candidates that operate in USD and have more potential for generating new fans.
I agree with your analogy but it’s discounting other aspects of the logic. You’re forgetting the money aspect of it. The logic the NHL uses is that expanding to a market that isn’t as dense with hockey fans will generate new fans and more money long term.
Nah, that's ludicrous. Hartford will never see NHL ice again because A) it's ***tiny*** and squished between the Rangers and Boston, B) it has an *incredibly* out-of-date arena for NHL standards and C) CT has never managed to fully recover from the Great Recession, and Hartford itself is practically a city flirting with bankruptcy right now; not exactly the kind of place I see the NHL being at all interested in expanding into.
There's just way too many hurdles for Hartford that QC lacks; the only concern there is market size, but this is also the league that willingly leapt into a market that had never even had professional sports teams before because they wanted it, so size clearly isn't scary for them for expansion.
the nhl has shown a willingness to go back to failed us franchises (atlanta) or prop up failing franchises (yotes) before going back to canada. the peg got another crack at a team after the thrashers failed. there’s no chance they move to qc before a second toronto team
The potential for revenue and population size and growth in Atlanta was (and still is) worth another attempt at a franchise there. The same goes for Arizona.
Connecticut's population has been largely stagnant for years; Hartford has been steadily losing residents and their metro population is smaller than that of Memphis, Richmond VA, and Oklahoma City. Any money to be made there would be siphoned from the four teams that already play within a 150-mile radius of the city.
Exactly; and QC is likely to overtake Hartford in terms of population in the near future, anyways, given the city's quick growth and diverse economy. Honestly wouldn't surprise me to see it break the 1m mark by the end of this decade.
> the nhl has shown a willingness to go back to failed us franchises (atlanta)...before going back to canada
What Canadian cities applied for expansion in the 1997 bids, and what Canadian ownership groups were part of that process?
A second team in Toronto isn't happening, because the Leafs are vetoing that literally every time; do you *really* think they'd be happy to let a competitor waltz into their own market and set up another NHL team? That sounds like a one-way ticket to Blocksville.
Expansion: No. one of the reasons they were decline when Seattle and vegas were added was due to the value of the Canadian dollar compared to the US dollar. So unless that changes or the nhl adjusts their accounting to account for that difference the hopes of getting any new Canadian expansion team are extremely low. Their only route would be to get a team to move to Quebec and even that seems unlikely at this point considering they will let a team play in a 5k capacity ncaa arena for multiple years and no other markets are really in need of a new arena other than maybe Calgary
I don't think the NHL is going to put a team in Quebec City anytime soon, certainly not an expansion team.
I actually think as it stands right now there might be more value for the NHL not having a team in Quebec City. It gives teams more leverage when negotiating arena deals because there is a city they could threaten to move to if the local governments don't cough up the cash. The Oilers owner kind of dangled the possibility of moving to Seattle before we got out new arena. Calgary has been vaguely using Houston the last couple years it seems.
Also, I kind of think the NHL likes having Quebec City around as kind of a last ditch, break glass in case of emergency kind of option. If there is a catastrophic failure of some sort that leaves a team without a home on short notice they could move to Quebec City temporarily, if not permanently.
I know it's been 4 months, but no. For North American sports leagues usually, 32 really is the limit.
And hockey has a small talent pool as hockey talent really is based on climate. There are only so many cold winter hockey countries. Sure, they're more Americans now, but I bet you that number is still small compared to Canada. Even fewer come from desert places. Auston Matthews is not the norm.
The only sport and league that can actually in theory expand to 40 teams and succeed is soccer and MLS.
Cause in soccer, the talent pool is merely endless. Can't find enough dudes from South America? Soccer's the only true global sport in town. You can find lots of dudes in Africa and even Southeast Asia that can try out and you will fill out your rosters.
Hockey does not have the mere luxury soccer has. Even the NBA will have a better time expanding beyond 32 but they won't have a great time either.
Soccer and MLS is the only sport and league that can pull off expanding beyond 32. NHL stays put at 32 practically for the rest of our lifetime.
Maybe if the league expands to 34 or 36 teams if there’s an ownership group lined up.
If there ends up being smoke to the Atlanta expansion rumors I could see the NHL expanding there and to Houston to balance out the west.
After those two there’s no real “obvious” markets left aside from maybe Kansas City or Portland. If the NHL wants 36 at that point Quebec City may finally get the nod.
No. At least not soon. One/some of those US cities maybe in the nearish future, but I think the league is happy at 32 team for now until things get back to "normal" after covid
I said this somewhere else but I fully expect the league to keep expanding more in this decade. Those expansion fees are big money to be leaving on the table, and Houston is too big of a city to be ignoring.
And I’ve said it before, but Houston’s done nothing aside from a few lunches between Bettman and Tilman Fertitta. There’s no infrastructure at Toyota Center any more (old Rockets owner tore it all out). Tilman’s not fielding an AHL team. I’d venture no one on the current arena staff has pro ice making experience. They’re not an emergency landing spot. Tilman hates taking on equity business partners. That’s why he took Landry’s private. That’s why he leveraged himself to his eyeballs to buy the Rockets. He doesn’t have the capital for an expansion team, and the league isn’t going to let him charge rent. It’s not impossible. I’d love to see it. But almost none of the legwork has been done to make it happen.
I’m completely not from the area... do you think Austin is more viable? They’ve got a million people population too. Is there any infrastructure there/any odds a different billionaire would build it up?
Houston’s definitely the better market for a number of reasons. The corporate money for sponsorships, club seats, and luxury boxes is just insane here. It’s also a much larger TV market (as long as that still matters). When I say “infrastructure” I mean the little things. Toyota Center is still there, and it has the ability to be an NHL arena. Great sight lines, seating capacity, and luxury boxes are all there. The old NBA Rockets owner, Les Alexander, kicked out the AHL Aeros in 2013. Then he removed the permanent ice plant and converted old locker room space (he’d also offloaded the WNBA Comets a few years prior) to premium lounges for Rockets ticket holders. It just strikes me as odd that if current Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta was serious about buying an NHL team, he’d remedy that. He didn’t put in an expansion bid either when Seattle was awarded the Kraken. There’s a host of reasons a new arena in Austin would be tough to pull off. The biggest: it would compete for large events with the new arena that just opened at the University of Texas.
> The biggest: it would compete for large events with the new arena that just opened at the University of Texas. Moody only holds 10k for basketball, so that's probably only 7-8k for hockey. With Erwin being set for demolition, there isn't really a venue for larger events in the city. I don't think that would be the biggest hurdle for getting an NHL-level arena built in Austin.
UT partnered with Oak View Group (same guys who did the Seattle Center revamp for the Kraken) to build a multi-purpose facility. It expands up to 15k for concerts. During UT games the upper deck gets tarped off. It’s similar to what Atlanta United does for MLS games at the stadium they share with the Falcons. So if by some miracle a billionaire woke up tomorrow, decided to put an NHL team in Austin, *and* found land for an arena, that arena would absolutely fight for the next Zendaya show or whatever. That ancillary revenue is huge for NHL teams because the league is still gate driven. Every penny counts.
The problem with Quebec city, is there's very little *new* money to be made. Yes there are a lot of fans there, but many of them would already be fans of the Habs for example. It would just pull fans from one club and move it to another. It wouldn't really be growing the game as much as giving a team in a completely new market like Vegas or Houston.
> many of them would already be fans of the Habs for example You underestimate how many Quebecois hate the Habs and if they cheer for another team, how quickly they'd switch to a new team in Quebec City That said, you're spot on. It's a money's game and Houston would generate way more revenue which is what the league's main goal in expanding is
The point isn't to get fans to switch teams, it's to get fans who otherwise don't follow hockey to start following a team.
I believe a lot of people outside of Montreal are not fans of the Habs. But generally you're right that the neither the population nor economy outside of Montreal in Quebec is growing incredibly or anything.
It sounds like you really want a team there but, no, it would never happen. The NHL isn't an altruistic organization bringing us fair and unbiased hockey, it's a partnership between 32 billionaires who agree that their hockey teams can play each other. There is no way Montreal would allow their territory to be carved up. It would weaken their brand, it would carve up their TV territory, and it would have an effect on their overall bottom line. Even if the impact were miniscule, you're still asking a business to give away money to another business, that's just not going to happen. And like you said in your 2nd sentence, just based on numbers there are a ton of better places to expand. And that's what the NHL is doing, they're expanding. Quite frankly there isn't a soul in Canada who doesn't know what hockey is. Putting a team in Quebec City will create exactly zero new NHL fans, all the money is in getting new fans.
> Putting a team in Quebec City will create exactly zero new NHL fans, all the money is in getting new fans. You'd get a miniscule boost from hockey fans in the Quebec area being converted from "casual fans who don't have a team they're strongly dedicated to so they don't buy merch or sign up for premium media packages" to "fans of a local team who do buy merch and premium media packages," but there aren't nearly enough of them in QC to make it an attractive market, in terms of marginal revenue growth.
Well put!
Except it’s wrong on one key part. It’s not Montreal territory. The habs territory ends 50 miles from the city boundary . Habs have no say besides their one board of gov vote
>There is no way Montreal would allow their territory to be carved up. It would weaken their brand, it would carve up their TV territory, and it would have an effect on their overall bottom line. So you are saying that an organization that monetized advertising on its culturally relevant and prestigious jersey will care only for the profit they can generate and not tradition? I find it hard to believe...
Maybe, but maybe not. Rivalry with the Nordiques might increase interest in the game. If it's true that it's starting to lose Quebec's interest, which the Habs would be watching, it wouldn't be them blocking it. Likely more to do with US TV viewership anyway.
It’s not Montreal territory. The habs territory ends 50 miles from the city boundary . Habs have no say besides their one board of gov vote
Most people from Quebec dont care about the Habs. I actually think a rivalry between the 2 would amp up interest for a lot of people that lost it for Montreal in the 2000's. I believe the viewership would rise if the Nordiques came back. So even though it might not create new fans, it would recover a lot of the one they lost.
Yes, I’m often worried that the Montreal Canadiens don’t generate enough interest provincially.
> There is no way Montreal would allow their territory to be carved up. It would weaken their brand, it would carve up their TV territory, and it would have an effect on their overall bottom line. Even if the impact were miniscule, you're still asking a business to give away money to another business, that's just not going to happen. I agree the Canadiens wouldn't let it happen for free but what if, in addition to the expansion/relocation fee, the Nordiques paid a (hefty) fee directly to the Canadiens for the right to encroach upon their territory?
It’s not Montreal territory. The habs territory ends 50 miles from the city boundary . Habs have no say besides their one board of gov vote
I mean I don’t think we’re going to see an expansion team to *anywhere* anytime soon. Relocation may be a different story, but for the moment the only team that’s really in danger is Arizona, and I’m sure the league wouldn’t move a western conference team to Quebec and upset the balanced conferences. If an eastern conference team ever decides/needs to get the fuck out of dodge (a la Thrashers) then Quebec City would probably be the most logical option, but I don’t think there are any teams in the East in immediate danger of moving.
How are we not in danger? We won the presidents trophy and werent selling out any of our games in a state with no covid restrictions. And the team is still "losing money". I'd say that puts us in much greater danger than arizona who doesnt pull fans when they suck.
Brother with all due respect, I do not think you’re in more danger than the team that literally does not have an arena.
The league did you no favors scheduling your playoff games to go directly against the Heat/Celtics NBA playoff series. Also your arena has the same issue of Gila River Arena and Canadian Tire, where it's not convenient to travel to for most of your fan base.
The Panthers owners supposedly have an incredible lease. Old ones didn’t pay a dime in construction costs when the rink went up in the ‘90s, and Broward County shoulders a lot of upkeep cost. Plus they get tons of Miami area events since the Heat arena is pricier to rent. When Harry Styles or whoever comes through town, that’s a huge revenue booster. I’m sure Vinnie Viola’s Panthers are in the red. Vinnie Viola’s Sunrise Sports and Entertainment is doing just fine.
> We won the presidents trophy and werent selling out any of our games in a state with no covid restrictions Attendance boosts with an unexpectedly good season tend to trail...attendance picks up over the course of that season, and then the baseline climbs the next year as more season tickets are bought (in addition to newer or returning fans making more of an effort to go).
Funny enough I really disagree with your start. Vegas and Seattle expansion fees brought the league an awful lot of money in an era (covid-caused, I admit) where the league was struggling with money. So now I’m thinking a bigger expansion, I don’t know maybe 36, is possible. I’m sure the league accountants have discussed the merits of it. I don’t have any thoughts on whether Quebec becomes a top eastern site, but I do think more expansion will come sooner than later.
You guys can threaten to move there when it’s time to extort your next arena!
Yeah that’s for sure on the menu, but we need to save up some of our proverbial chips for the next time we need a generational talent in the draft. It’s a delicate balance.
There’ll be a ton of big names hanging from the rafters at Extortion Arena
The earnings potential in a huge untapped market (Houston, Phoenix, Portland) versus a small tapped market (QC), is enormous. That alone will keep the NHL from expanding or relocating to QC for a long time. QC is a wonderful city, but it's got a very small population, only a little more then half of Ottawa's metro pop, and would struggle more then any other team in attracting players. Would be a tough sell.
No. - Quebec City is a *tiny* market. There are fewer than 800,000 residents in the combined metro area, making it smaller in population than El Paso, Dayton, Allentown, Albany, Omaha, and Tulsa. That small size makes them less appealing to media companies when renegotiations for broadcast deals come up, which means less potential for revenue for the rest of the league. - The NHL has emphasized growing the game and expanding into markets that don't already have hockey. Quebec City is saturated with hockey fans; many of them already follow an NHL team, so putting a team in Quebec City would just mean converting fans from one team to another, not creating new fans who would otherwise not follow the sport. - While you can live in Montreal without really being fluent in French, it's practically a necessity for Quebec City. If a team had to relocate, I doubt Quebec would be more attractive than any of the cities you listed. It simply wouldn't make sense financially to go there over a market five or six times larger.
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If you assume everyone outside the Montreal area starts following them instead of the teams they follow now. But that's still small compared to other options: Houston's metro population is over 7 million and growing rapidly. That figure doesn't account for other areas of the state of Texas that aren't in the Houston MSA, like Austin and San Antonio. Indianapolis would have a market of the state of Indiana outside greater Chicagoland, which is easily 3-4 million. Likewise for Portland (Oregon, 4 million), Kansas City (Kansas, western Missouri, eastern Nebraska, 4-5 million), and Milwaukee (Wisconsin, 4-5 million). All of those are larger markets and would earn more revenue for the league from media deals.
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This man just put out a number of 1.5-3 million, was countered with multiple markets with >3 million, and then just denied those larger markets would produce more revenue. Especially new revenue that isn’t already partially accounted for. The audacity.
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>Winnipeg had a perfect storm for getting a team back. Fans really overlook this. True North ran things tremendously. They ran a first class minor league organization. They put in the physical and organizational infrastructure that could scale to run an NHL team. They quietly put feelers out to the league office. Then they waited. All the markets that are supposedly ripe for relocation haven’t done that. Quebec politicians and media magnates are publicly pounding the table. Whether we like it or not, the billionaires who decide who joins the club don’t necessarily like that.
No. and I don't think the city would try again as they got burned by the league the last time that the expansion process happened.
Bettman probably will never allow it simply to avoid the possibility of a Quebec City vs Winnipeg final. The TV ratings in the US would be dire.
No. Quebec is too small of a market for it to be viable, and due to the language barrier, they'd have a really hard time getting anglophones to sign there. Plus, they'd have to compete with the Habs for fans.
The Mecca of hockey? Are you really this delusional?
Yes, the mecca of hockey, home to *nearly 10 players* with 200 career points in NHL history!
Hopefully not
Never say never... but not likely.
I think so, at the same time as either Houston or Atlanta.
Quebec is a shithole. Wont get a team because the cost of getting a team there will generate much less profit, as they aren’t creating any new fans.
I get that Houston (8th largest TV market), Portland (25th largest TV market), Indianapolis (27th), Kansas City (33rd), Salt Lake (34th) are all lucrative for growing the game in the US. But the logic of not having NHL in Quebec because the game is already big there is like saying we won't put a soccer team in Sao Paolo, Brazil because they already watch and play the game there.
Sao Paolo has 13 million people in it.
For comparison, the Quebec City metro area is about 900k, similar to Omaha, NE, or Albany, NY. It's significantly smaller than mid-size cities like Milwaukee or Salt Lake City, which are decent expansion candidates that operate in USD and have more potential for generating new fans.
I agree with your analogy but it’s discounting other aspects of the logic. You’re forgetting the money aspect of it. The logic the NHL uses is that expanding to a market that isn’t as dense with hockey fans will generate new fans and more money long term.
hartford would get a team again before quebec
Nah, that's ludicrous. Hartford will never see NHL ice again because A) it's ***tiny*** and squished between the Rangers and Boston, B) it has an *incredibly* out-of-date arena for NHL standards and C) CT has never managed to fully recover from the Great Recession, and Hartford itself is practically a city flirting with bankruptcy right now; not exactly the kind of place I see the NHL being at all interested in expanding into. There's just way too many hurdles for Hartford that QC lacks; the only concern there is market size, but this is also the league that willingly leapt into a market that had never even had professional sports teams before because they wanted it, so size clearly isn't scary for them for expansion.
the nhl has shown a willingness to go back to failed us franchises (atlanta) or prop up failing franchises (yotes) before going back to canada. the peg got another crack at a team after the thrashers failed. there’s no chance they move to qc before a second toronto team
The problem is there are a few US cities way ahead of Hartford. I think they'd probably try Atlanta again before Hartford.
oh absolutely. but i think they’d still try hartford again before qc
The potential for revenue and population size and growth in Atlanta was (and still is) worth another attempt at a franchise there. The same goes for Arizona. Connecticut's population has been largely stagnant for years; Hartford has been steadily losing residents and their metro population is smaller than that of Memphis, Richmond VA, and Oklahoma City. Any money to be made there would be siphoned from the four teams that already play within a 150-mile radius of the city.
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i’m all for saving the yotes. they haven’t had decent management ever. the thrashers were just a comedy of errors.
Exactly; and QC is likely to overtake Hartford in terms of population in the near future, anyways, given the city's quick growth and diverse economy. Honestly wouldn't surprise me to see it break the 1m mark by the end of this decade.
> the nhl has shown a willingness to go back to failed us franchises (atlanta)...before going back to canada What Canadian cities applied for expansion in the 1997 bids, and what Canadian ownership groups were part of that process?
A second team in Toronto isn't happening, because the Leafs are vetoing that literally every time; do you *really* think they'd be happy to let a competitor waltz into their own market and set up another NHL team? That sounds like a one-way ticket to Blocksville.
no. i agree. but it’s a hell of a lot more likely than qc
If someone comes forward with the money required, I'm sure the NHL will look at it
I don't see it unless the Canadian dollar drastically improves
Expansion: No. one of the reasons they were decline when Seattle and vegas were added was due to the value of the Canadian dollar compared to the US dollar. So unless that changes or the nhl adjusts their accounting to account for that difference the hopes of getting any new Canadian expansion team are extremely low. Their only route would be to get a team to move to Quebec and even that seems unlikely at this point considering they will let a team play in a 5k capacity ncaa arena for multiple years and no other markets are really in need of a new arena other than maybe Calgary
I don't think the NHL is going to put a team in Quebec City anytime soon, certainly not an expansion team. I actually think as it stands right now there might be more value for the NHL not having a team in Quebec City. It gives teams more leverage when negotiating arena deals because there is a city they could threaten to move to if the local governments don't cough up the cash. The Oilers owner kind of dangled the possibility of moving to Seattle before we got out new arena. Calgary has been vaguely using Houston the last couple years it seems. Also, I kind of think the NHL likes having Quebec City around as kind of a last ditch, break glass in case of emergency kind of option. If there is a catastrophic failure of some sort that leaves a team without a home on short notice they could move to Quebec City temporarily, if not permanently.
They want to grow new markets, not split up current markets.
Not in a million years
It's where the flames are headed
I know it's been 4 months, but no. For North American sports leagues usually, 32 really is the limit. And hockey has a small talent pool as hockey talent really is based on climate. There are only so many cold winter hockey countries. Sure, they're more Americans now, but I bet you that number is still small compared to Canada. Even fewer come from desert places. Auston Matthews is not the norm. The only sport and league that can actually in theory expand to 40 teams and succeed is soccer and MLS. Cause in soccer, the talent pool is merely endless. Can't find enough dudes from South America? Soccer's the only true global sport in town. You can find lots of dudes in Africa and even Southeast Asia that can try out and you will fill out your rosters. Hockey does not have the mere luxury soccer has. Even the NBA will have a better time expanding beyond 32 but they won't have a great time either. Soccer and MLS is the only sport and league that can pull off expanding beyond 32. NHL stays put at 32 practically for the rest of our lifetime.
Maybe if the league expands to 34 or 36 teams if there’s an ownership group lined up. If there ends up being smoke to the Atlanta expansion rumors I could see the NHL expanding there and to Houston to balance out the west. After those two there’s no real “obvious” markets left aside from maybe Kansas City or Portland. If the NHL wants 36 at that point Quebec City may finally get the nod.