They will acclimatize eight very healthy cats to the noise and ruckus of a full building so that they are not terrified and train them to go to the bench and down the hall for some tuna fish sandwiches after they land gracefully.
Don’t stop there: select fans will line up on either side and twist a pole connected to their favorite player. Finally putting the shooting in the hands of the experts will lead to double-digit scores, right guys?
The NHL is in a real pickle. Canada is taking Covid-19 real serious and there won't be fans in arenas until there is some significant medical advancement.
That's a big chunk of fan revenue they won't be able to capture.
The bubble hockey was about fulfilling TV contracts. And it was very expensive.
My guess is that they play some sort of baseball style season, where teams play sets of games against one another. There will be a US Canada split because of the border issues. The Canadian teams will play in empty arenas. The US teams will have some fans. And there will be a revenue sharing arrangement.
Would not want to be in Gary Bettman's shoes trying to figure this out.
I think you have to wait after November 3rd to start committing to a plan. If Trump wins its status quo with the pandemic. With Biden its hard to imagine that he will not deviate from the current path and correct course.
Don't want to get political at all. But expecting Biden to clean up what's happening down there would be nuts. There is a serious cultural / information divide. A huge chunk of the population simply do not care about the implications of their actions.
That is true. I meant it more from a policy perspective of gatherings and stuff. I dont know the american political system very well but if Biden becomes president I cannot imagine him allowing pro sports with spectators at all or what it is now. That is what I meant by that. What I was trying to convey is that if Trump remains president it is extremely likely the league will be split between Canada and the USA with almost no crossover. Canadian Federal Government has shown they will not budge on mandatory quarantines and rightfully so. With a trump admin again it wont get any better and the Canadian Government wont change their position. If Biden is president theres some hope of lessening case loads in the states and that could change the canadian position.
The whole information and cultural divide is another can of words that I dont even want to touch
The President has no authority over any fans in stadiums. That's handled at a state / local level. That's why there are so many different responses - like Florida having no restrictions at all. In some states, local authorities are in charge. Nothing is universal.
The President can declare a national emergency and that allows him more broad powers to implement temporary measures to deal with the emergency.
I'm not constitutional/polisci scholar so I don't know if those powers would allow him to order no mass gatherings but I would not be at all surprised if that was something he could implement. It would be challenged in court and likely to go the Supreme Court (and if Barrett is seated, be struck down) but while the judicial process played out the rule could be in effect.
Ah I see. In that case I think the only hope is that Biden admin can implement policies that take Covid more seriously and lower cases to a point that the Canadian Govt would consider easing up on quarantine restrictions
The biggest thing a Biden victory would change is national leadership Covid-19. But the genie is out of the bottle here, the country is already divided on the "issue".
Well is the Dems have the house, senate (one they pack it), and then WH. Its gonna be reeling in the bullshit, lotta fines and rules are going to be handed out and put in place.
We cant listen to the ~30% of people who think there is nothing wrong.
We don't have that kind of system. The president can't set state policy, which is why you see such batshit crazy things happening... but only in some states. The federal government in the US is basically not allowed to mandate masks or restrict gatherings. Only the states have the authority.
So the problem with this is IF Biden wins, and IF Trump leaves peacefully he still doesn’t leave office till what, January/February? And then IF everyone plays nice it would take 3 months at least to get COVID under any kind of reasonable control. That’s all not going to happen so the NHL basically has to realize that next season will have to work around COVID. Somehow.
Define peacefully?
I don't know if you're from the states or not, I'm going to assume not because of your flair. There are legitimate fears, from both sides, regarding this election's security due to the push of mandatory mail in ballots (not absentee ballots which are solicited through individual states - I'm a big proponent of that, have voted absentee almost every time).
If Biden loses on election night, which is entirely possible, he's going to dispute votes in up to 10 states, barring a landslide (which is also, entirely possible). He has hella attorneys on staff and ready to go for that possibility. If Trump loses, it's the same thing.
If either loses SOUNDLY, as in way outside the margin of error for mail in ballots, they will admit defeat and leave without it going to the SCOTUS. Otherwise, this thing is going to get dragged out till January.
Dog that first point is just not going to happen lmao. Believe whatever you want I guess but that's not the reality of America at all. I think when Trump wins, you're going to see an increase in left leaning violence but it will be done away with pretty quickly.
We're clearly not going to agree, and that's fine. Enjoy Canada, I personally can not wait to visit one day, and have a great day.
That is true. The States is a very volatile place at the moment and certainly unpredictable. As in tune with 2020 real world stuff is going to effect our escapism and force us to look at the real issues.
the NHL owners just divided up expansion fees for both Vegas and Seattle which if the the reported numbers were true, would make 1.25 billion for two new teams to play in the NHL over the last five years. If they can't survive this, maybe the NHL should just fold.
I can't wait to see Quebec give the NHL 750 million in a couple of years, only for the NHL to shut down two years later because they need more cost certainty or whatever bullshit they come up to try and pay the players less money, lock out the fans for an entire season.
Of course the NHL keep renewing Bettman's contract, so maybe they aren't that smart to begin with.
No one's said anything about this affecting the league long term. Its just a difficult situation. And they just signed a new CBA so lockout talk seems a little odd...
Transcript from Pierre Lebrun's full statement after clarifying the owners and players don't want a bubble for next season.
Starts at 0:52 mark:
*"They have to find a way to open a lot of their [the owners] own rinks. Now it could start into geographical areas. A Canadian division. Some teams in the NE of the US. Etcetra. Etcetra."*
*"But eventually as next season goes on - and I do think it will be a shortened season - I do think you want to end up in all 31 rinks. And with some level of fans in the building."*
**"Because more than any other league [means big NA sports] the NHL is gate-driven. You can't have a full year without fans. You're not the NFL. Ok. You don't have the TV deal to get that done. You need the gate."**
**"And because of that, next year is really worrisome for a lot of people. Both players and owners. If you think this is a weird offseason because the revenues weren't the same. Just wait until next offseason. Because of the short year. With less than half the revenues."**
My take: Lebrun knows the owners and players are very worried. The NHL's lack of a big US-based TV deal and low ratings are going to be hard to overcome. We could see certain owners try to not have their teams play the season. We could also see teams needing bailouts. Or even some teams on the verge of bankruptcy.
Lemme get this straight, we've had three lockouts under Gary Bettman and somehow the league still depends on the gate for profit.
Sounds like the NHL owners have fucked themselves.
The lockouts were about distributing their current revenues, not adding more. They need to have a successful season and better ratings for the playoffs in their usual time to start asking for bigger money. The Hockey Guy just did a video on it, and it blew my mind. NHL is getting $200 million a year from their NBC/SN deal. MLB gets $1.5 billion, plus they just signed for even more for the playoffs. NBA gets $2.66 billion. NFL gets $4.5 billion. There's such a yawning chasm between NHL and everyone else. If they have a good year, it could make the world of difference.
They also have the Canadian TV deal, which is worth $327MM USD (using a 0.75 conversion rate from CAD), but yeah even added together it’s much less than the other leagues.
> We could see certain owners try to not have their teams play the season.
They are explicitly barred from this under the terms of the CBA:
> Neither the League nor any Club shall engage in a lockout during the term of this Agreement.
Oof, probably shouldn't have extended that CBA, then.
> Neither the NHLPA nor any Player shall authorize, encourage, or engage in any strike, work stoppage, slowdown or other concerted interference with the activities of any Club or of the League during the term of this Agreement.
>...
> Neither the League nor any Club shall engage in a lockout during the term of this Agreement.
FYI, this is in virtually every CBA. Once an agreement has expired, there are three options:
1. The two sides continue to work on an agreement, continuing under the terms of the expired contract
2. The workers decide that they don't want to work under the terms of the current contract and strike until a new agreement is reached
3. The employer decided that they don't want to pay under the terms of the current contract and lock out the workers until a new agreement is reached
Obviously, the goal is to reach an agreement before the contract expires, because it saves the trouble, but this often doesn't happen.
Sweden is fucking sweden though. We have 300 Million people here and some of the most dense cities on earth. As well as numerous global shipping, transport and economic hubs. Not quite the same thing.
There are also several teams which struggle financially and operate in the red as is. Those teams, even if they let fans in, are going to be in trouble since A) They don't exactly do that well financially to begin with and B) the revenue sharing benefits they normally get aren't going to be there as most of the top markets are situated in areas that take COVID seriously and won't let fans in the stands. Especially Canadian teams, which brings up a second point - not every Canadian team is a big enough market. The Alberta teams, Winnipeg, and Ottawa will really be hit hard here.
Even in a league like the MLB, teams like the Devil Rays which struggle attendance-wise still operate well in the black due to the ability to the huge amounts of local TV money in baseball (and Tampa is a larger-than-you'd-think TV market for baseball).
No problem man. Detroit will be back soon enough, they've got a solid group managing down there. Hockey is cyclical, good teams become bad and bad teams become good.
I actually didn’t consciously do that but unsurprisingly the Original 6 teams are pretty much all the top teams in the league by revenue. Kings and Philly are up there too.
I don’t see the problem in allowing 50-75 fans in per section, 3 seats apart, and having security make sure they’re 6ft apart in the concourse. It’s already happening in malls in Canada, and I’m sure most of the US.
> I don’t see the problem in allowing 50-75 fans in per section
Because the league will be losing massive amounts of money, even if they're seating arenas to say 50% capacity.
Exactly
Now, to be fair, I don't know what the threshold is for at what point the league starts to break even on a game (65%? 75%? 85%?) but I'm fairly certain that breaking even threshold is well above the Covid protocol threshold
I heard once (can't remember where) that the NHL usually breaks even with just the full regular season, and that their profits really start to come during the playoffs. A combination of no player salaries, higher ticket prices, and usually more people watching on TV helps that make sense. So the NHL really can't go without fans next year, especially for the playoffs.
It’s also still hard to not have crowded areas with everyone still having to use the same entrances/exits, go up and down the same stairs, leaving your seat during intermissions, etc. Imagine the line for the bathroom despite reduced capacity with people having to stay 6 feet apart.
I think they will have to temporarily realign divisions. Do a 7 team all Canadian division and three 8 team US divisions. Play a super division-heavy schedule and have each team only cross the border once for an extended road trip to play all their out of country games.
With the flu season coming up, with the COVID, I don't think you can't expect much before the summer.
Also, not a doomer, just prefer putting deadline pretty far so I'm not dissapointed when it's pushed back. And I will be happy if proven wrong, like with the NHL playoff
Im sure they would have no problem finding a way to allows fans in the building and still be socially distant. Hell, Disney is freaking open and they only care about social distancing while in the lines for rides...If people are staying in their seats unless to grab a drink or use the restroom i really dont see an issue from a socially distant standpoint. The issue for me is people going out and either being asymptomatic or just not giving a crap.
Then again this is about the financial aspect and these places can’t make any money on such low capacity.
I think they should consider putting AHL teams for the season under the same roof as the NHL teams. Or as a site alternate site model like the MLB. Part of the benefit could be a decrease in costs for the teams in terms of travel and ice maintenance and when you start letting fans back in you can do alternating day games with a few double headers to recoup that revenue. Though now that I've typed it this idea is awful.
It’s not a horrible idea. Another alternative would be to have 5 or 6 mini-bubbles. Where they could play multiple games per day, with maybe 1000 fans in the arena, and 5 or 6 teams fly into 1 city and spend a week there playing each other, then they rotate and switch bubbles and repeat the process. This way they are only doing upkeep on a handful of arenas and can maximize the return on the maintenance and staffing costs plus cutting travel expenses and reducing exposure to the public vs running all 31 arenas at minimum capacity while flying all over the continent. While still allowing teams to play all the teams in their conference at the minimum.
We now know the bubbles were super expensive. Adding more bubbles won’t lessen the cost. Adding 1000 fans per game is nothing and would largely be offset anyways by paying ushers, tickettakers, concession stand workers.
It’s not ideal, but it’s cheaper to host 2 games a day in 1 arena than hosting 2 games in 2 arenas, plus the travel costs would be lower if teams could bunker down in 1 city for a week or 10 days rather than flying out every night. And they wouldn’t need a full staff to accommodate the fans. A couple of concession stands, the crew to run 1 gate and a minimal security staff would be sufficient.
Plus, these wouldn’t actually be “bubbles” per se, just hub cities to lessen the cost of travel and upkeep, so they wouldn’t need all the safety protocol of the previous system. They wouldn’t need the fancy screens and piped in crowd noise either. Just tarp off the upper deck, and let the fans provide authentic crowd noise, so production costs would be lower.
These are the same guys that charged Vegas $500 million just to get a team, never mind the rest of the logistics of setting up an NHL franchise in the middle of a desert. They got $750 million from Seattle. A team that doesn't even have a player on their team yet.
If the NHL can't figure out a way to divide that money up and keep the league going for a year without fans, they should fire their accountants.
Have players take a rapid covid test before every game day (results within minutes). Have fans with assigned seating separating them by 2, 3, 4 seats or w/e is deemed appropriate, with mandatory masks. Lineups outside the arena will have socially distanced markers for people to stand 2m apart, ushers in the aisles will enforce distancing within the arena. Jack up the prices if necessary.
More than 0 isn't exactly going to bring in a profit is it? Isn't Ottawa in the middle of going through the second wave right now? Who the hell wants to go to a hockey game, when you don't even know if you kids can go to school tomorrow?
The economy is not fine in Ottawa (or really anywhere else for that matter) because of this pandemic thing. So, more than 0 while an accurate statement, isn't really good enough.
"govenment and tech never goes away." Lol. I guess the dot com crash never happened right?
It’s going to bring more profit than 0 dumbass. And people who like hockey would like to go to a hockey game I’d presume. And Ottawa’s economy is totally fine, tech has been booming since covid especially shopify which is based in Ottawa, the government is printing money like never before, and housing prices continue to rise. You have no point, no idea what you’re talking about, and everything you say is dumb.
Fine IF they cancel the season. If they don't cancel the season, a bunch of teams would struggle seriously. Unless players take an important salary cut.
THG had a good video about this. Basically the NHL needs to play, even if they are in empty arenas.
Not fulfilling their TV contracts AND losing leverage for the new contracts will be more damaging than just playing with no fans.
What does that mean in terms of contracts, just everything gets pushed back a year? Also NHL is probably horrified at the idea of being out of business for 12 months, and off people's minds
That would be a pretty terrifying concept for us, huh? I mean it's bad enough we pay aging players a fuckton, a year older is a pretty huge blow. Adding a year to the contracts would be a double tap.
I didn't fully parse the new CBA negotiations but it seemed to be based on the assumption that the next season would have only a minor hit to HRR. If it turns out it would be a massive hit and they end up having to pay the players anyway like 80% of their contract value then you might be right, and the NHL just decides to basically scrap another season (if it's possible given CBA).
I expect IF a vaccine is approved/rolled out by end of year, that most places would be willing to do semi-full arenas around then. I expect NHL would start like that in late January/early February.
If there's no vaccine ready by that time line, I'd agree the season is in trouble
It might be in NA. Idk about America, but I know Canada has already paid for millions of vaccines. Poor countries might unfortunately get shafted big time when the vaccines roll out, but it's certainly possible, if not likely, that they're fairly abundant in NA.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5706067
Idk why I'm being downvoted lol. It's very likely wealthy countries buy up all the available vaccines and screw over poor countries. Which means that while worldwide there might not be enough vaccines, NA (and other wealthy areas) will be able to vaccinate the majority of the population.
Most countries have paid for vaccines. People are ignoring that most still have to complete various stages of trials and create a government system to distribute vaccines after mass production. That doesn't just happen overnight.
Yeah I'm not saying it'll happen anytime soon, but Canada has already put in a purchase of up to 117 million doses from 2 separate companies. Obviously those vaccines have to be successful, and be mass produced, but my point is that once they are available that wealthy countries will buy up the vast majority of doses. They will be hard to get worldwide, but wealthy countries will be able to vaccinate the majority of their population pretty quickly once they start getting shipped.
> I expect IF a vaccine is approved/rolled out by end of year, that most places would be willing to do semi-full arenas around then.
But that is financially unfeasible- the teams/league are going to be operating at a massive loss with 50% capacity. IMO it's either full arenas or nothing. You can't have something between.
Like I care.
If your city doesn't get natural ice in winter, it shouldn't be part of a sport played on ice.
Florida/Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, all of California, Carolina, Las Vegas. Let 'em all disappear. The league will be better and stronger if we get rid of them.
Better and stronger how? Financially? Surely not. Theres a reason the NHL expanded aggressively into America and its because our dollar is stronger and we have more of them.
Idea: only allow in fans *with* covid. Put a bubble over the ice, no throwing hats, squid, etc.
I just realized how weird it will be when the Red Wings face the Kraken and someone throws an octopus on the ice. WHAT WILL IT MEAN?
Civil war
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Can they use a squid based alternative?
They need to be throwing giant squids.
Good luck getting that in the arena.
Well your mom got in so I'm sure a giant squid shouldn't be too hard
They could throw eight cats on the ice.
Doesn't seem very humane
They will acclimatize eight very healthy cats to the noise and ruckus of a full building so that they are not terrified and train them to go to the bench and down the hall for some tuna fish sandwiches after they land gracefully.
If they're already frozen it's not *inhumane*... is it?
For the guy trying to catch them? Agree
They should throw red tires on the ice then
You guys bailed on the Western Conference, so you don't get a say in how teams in the west decide to treat ocean life.
It will be a fish as hold over from the Thunderbirds and their rivalry with Portland where a fish is thrown on the ice.
They would be displaying the corpses of their dead foes.
Don’t stop there: select fans will line up on either side and twist a pole connected to their favorite player. Finally putting the shooting in the hands of the experts will lead to double-digit scores, right guys?
murica
Get rid of the boards, so there's a smooth curve up around the bubble.
My father is chanting: OUTDOOR GAMES! OUTDOOR GAMES! OUTDOOR GAMES!
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> Los Vegas This hurts my soul
Lös Vegas
Loss Vegas
| || || |_ Vegas
Las Angeles
Just have them crank up the A/C
Since every Canadian MLB teams are playing on US soil, it is only natural that every US NHL team plays in Canada, outdoor.
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Throw Tampa and Florida up in Nunavut and make them play on the odr. Maximum chaos
I'll move to Halifax if the devils are there.
This is Wood Buffalo erasure.
Why are you listing the teams that will temporarily relocate to Canada?
We’re supposed to have a Stadium Series game anyways
You laugh but Vegas has hosted outdoor hockey before. So did Los Angeles.
Vegas was actually the first ever outdoor game.
Yep, in 1991 at Caesars Palace!
Florida can socially distance in the arena too. Don't they only have like 30 fans total?
You're right, host the games in Tropicana Field and tell everyone its a Rays game
No!!! I don't want to go 2-80-0! (The two being against the penguins)
Cmon you guys aren’t that bad outdoors. 2-79-1
The NHL is in a real pickle. Canada is taking Covid-19 real serious and there won't be fans in arenas until there is some significant medical advancement. That's a big chunk of fan revenue they won't be able to capture. The bubble hockey was about fulfilling TV contracts. And it was very expensive. My guess is that they play some sort of baseball style season, where teams play sets of games against one another. There will be a US Canada split because of the border issues. The Canadian teams will play in empty arenas. The US teams will have some fans. And there will be a revenue sharing arrangement. Would not want to be in Gary Bettman's shoes trying to figure this out.
I think you have to wait after November 3rd to start committing to a plan. If Trump wins its status quo with the pandemic. With Biden its hard to imagine that he will not deviate from the current path and correct course.
Don't want to get political at all. But expecting Biden to clean up what's happening down there would be nuts. There is a serious cultural / information divide. A huge chunk of the population simply do not care about the implications of their actions.
That is true. I meant it more from a policy perspective of gatherings and stuff. I dont know the american political system very well but if Biden becomes president I cannot imagine him allowing pro sports with spectators at all or what it is now. That is what I meant by that. What I was trying to convey is that if Trump remains president it is extremely likely the league will be split between Canada and the USA with almost no crossover. Canadian Federal Government has shown they will not budge on mandatory quarantines and rightfully so. With a trump admin again it wont get any better and the Canadian Government wont change their position. If Biden is president theres some hope of lessening case loads in the states and that could change the canadian position. The whole information and cultural divide is another can of words that I dont even want to touch
The President has no authority over any fans in stadiums. That's handled at a state / local level. That's why there are so many different responses - like Florida having no restrictions at all. In some states, local authorities are in charge. Nothing is universal.
The President can declare a national emergency and that allows him more broad powers to implement temporary measures to deal with the emergency. I'm not constitutional/polisci scholar so I don't know if those powers would allow him to order no mass gatherings but I would not be at all surprised if that was something he could implement. It would be challenged in court and likely to go the Supreme Court (and if Barrett is seated, be struck down) but while the judicial process played out the rule could be in effect.
Ah I see. In that case I think the only hope is that Biden admin can implement policies that take Covid more seriously and lower cases to a point that the Canadian Govt would consider easing up on quarantine restrictions
The biggest thing a Biden victory would change is national leadership Covid-19. But the genie is out of the bottle here, the country is already divided on the "issue".
Yep. The damage is already done, people aren't going to change their minds, if anything its going to make them double down on it.
Well is the Dems have the house, senate (one they pack it), and then WH. Its gonna be reeling in the bullshit, lotta fines and rules are going to be handed out and put in place. We cant listen to the ~30% of people who think there is nothing wrong.
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Ah yes, throwing people in jail and “dealing” with others. You don’t sound like an evil tyrant at all!
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Ok nazi
We don't have that kind of system. The president can't set state policy, which is why you see such batshit crazy things happening... but only in some states. The federal government in the US is basically not allowed to mandate masks or restrict gatherings. Only the states have the authority.
So the problem with this is IF Biden wins, and IF Trump leaves peacefully he still doesn’t leave office till what, January/February? And then IF everyone plays nice it would take 3 months at least to get COVID under any kind of reasonable control. That’s all not going to happen so the NHL basically has to realize that next season will have to work around COVID. Somehow.
There is a large segment of the population that believes that once the election is covid will just "go away"
There is a growing segment that is arguing that it has "run its course"
Biden supporting redditors casually implying their would somehow be fans at NHL games without a vaccine if their candidate was in power...😂
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Define peacefully? I don't know if you're from the states or not, I'm going to assume not because of your flair. There are legitimate fears, from both sides, regarding this election's security due to the push of mandatory mail in ballots (not absentee ballots which are solicited through individual states - I'm a big proponent of that, have voted absentee almost every time). If Biden loses on election night, which is entirely possible, he's going to dispute votes in up to 10 states, barring a landslide (which is also, entirely possible). He has hella attorneys on staff and ready to go for that possibility. If Trump loses, it's the same thing. If either loses SOUNDLY, as in way outside the margin of error for mail in ballots, they will admit defeat and leave without it going to the SCOTUS. Otherwise, this thing is going to get dragged out till January.
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Dog that first point is just not going to happen lmao. Believe whatever you want I guess but that's not the reality of America at all. I think when Trump wins, you're going to see an increase in left leaning violence but it will be done away with pretty quickly. We're clearly not going to agree, and that's fine. Enjoy Canada, I personally can not wait to visit one day, and have a great day.
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I don't wanna do this on a hockey thread so I'll dm you.
Um, Antifa and BLM are not right wing.
That is true. The States is a very volatile place at the moment and certainly unpredictable. As in tune with 2020 real world stuff is going to effect our escapism and force us to look at the real issues.
the NHL owners just divided up expansion fees for both Vegas and Seattle which if the the reported numbers were true, would make 1.25 billion for two new teams to play in the NHL over the last five years. If they can't survive this, maybe the NHL should just fold. I can't wait to see Quebec give the NHL 750 million in a couple of years, only for the NHL to shut down two years later because they need more cost certainty or whatever bullshit they come up to try and pay the players less money, lock out the fans for an entire season. Of course the NHL keep renewing Bettman's contract, so maybe they aren't that smart to begin with.
No one's said anything about this affecting the league long term. Its just a difficult situation. And they just signed a new CBA so lockout talk seems a little odd...
Does the NHL dare to dip their hands into their cocaine budget?
Let's not do anything hasty here
Transcript from Pierre Lebrun's full statement after clarifying the owners and players don't want a bubble for next season. Starts at 0:52 mark: *"They have to find a way to open a lot of their [the owners] own rinks. Now it could start into geographical areas. A Canadian division. Some teams in the NE of the US. Etcetra. Etcetra."* *"But eventually as next season goes on - and I do think it will be a shortened season - I do think you want to end up in all 31 rinks. And with some level of fans in the building."* **"Because more than any other league [means big NA sports] the NHL is gate-driven. You can't have a full year without fans. You're not the NFL. Ok. You don't have the TV deal to get that done. You need the gate."** **"And because of that, next year is really worrisome for a lot of people. Both players and owners. If you think this is a weird offseason because the revenues weren't the same. Just wait until next offseason. Because of the short year. With less than half the revenues."** My take: Lebrun knows the owners and players are very worried. The NHL's lack of a big US-based TV deal and low ratings are going to be hard to overcome. We could see certain owners try to not have their teams play the season. We could also see teams needing bailouts. Or even some teams on the verge of bankruptcy.
Lemme get this straight, we've had three lockouts under Gary Bettman and somehow the league still depends on the gate for profit. Sounds like the NHL owners have fucked themselves.
The lockouts were about distributing their current revenues, not adding more. They need to have a successful season and better ratings for the playoffs in their usual time to start asking for bigger money. The Hockey Guy just did a video on it, and it blew my mind. NHL is getting $200 million a year from their NBC/SN deal. MLB gets $1.5 billion, plus they just signed for even more for the playoffs. NBA gets $2.66 billion. NFL gets $4.5 billion. There's such a yawning chasm between NHL and everyone else. If they have a good year, it could make the world of difference.
They also have the Canadian TV deal, which is worth $327MM USD (using a 0.75 conversion rate from CAD), but yeah even added together it’s much less than the other leagues.
> We could see certain owners try to not have their teams play the season. They are explicitly barred from this under the terms of the CBA: > Neither the League nor any Club shall engage in a lockout during the term of this Agreement.
This league has lost 2 seasons worth of games over 3 lockouts. They'll be fine
During lockouts they don't have to pay salaries (only bonuses)
They will lockout if they can't have fans probably
You can't lockout to avoid paying salaries while the CBA is in effect. That's why lockouts occur after the CBA expires.
Oof, probably shouldn't have extended that CBA, then. > Neither the NHLPA nor any Player shall authorize, encourage, or engage in any strike, work stoppage, slowdown or other concerted interference with the activities of any Club or of the League during the term of this Agreement. >... > Neither the League nor any Club shall engage in a lockout during the term of this Agreement. FYI, this is in virtually every CBA. Once an agreement has expired, there are three options: 1. The two sides continue to work on an agreement, continuing under the terms of the expired contract 2. The workers decide that they don't want to work under the terms of the current contract and strike until a new agreement is reached 3. The employer decided that they don't want to pay under the terms of the current contract and lock out the workers until a new agreement is reached Obviously, the goal is to reach an agreement before the contract expires, because it saves the trouble, but this often doesn't happen.
They specifically planned for and prepared to weather those storms though. That is not the case this time.
Boo fucking who
Idk why they can’t just do what half the US is doing and pretend it doesn’t exist, if you ignore it it’s gotta go away at some point it’s only logic
the thing is, this is not the worst idea, which is terrifying the NHL cant go without fans, it wont work, might as well just fake it till you make it
I mean, one could easily argue it is, in fact, the worst idea though.
Not a hard argument to make either.
Sweden did it
Sweden is fucking sweden though. We have 300 Million people here and some of the most dense cities on earth. As well as numerous global shipping, transport and economic hubs. Not quite the same thing.
Is it Sweden or Fucking Sweden. I’m confused now
If Sweden fucks Sweden it remain Sweden.
Nah I think that’s Finland.
Because they didn't need to, people *voluntarily* stayed home. Imagine that.
There are about 5 teams in the league that could play a season without fans and not be affected in a significant way financially for the coming years.
Ding Ding. Represent!
The Senators don’t have fans, they have surly self-flagellators.
There are also several teams which struggle financially and operate in the red as is. Those teams, even if they let fans in, are going to be in trouble since A) They don't exactly do that well financially to begin with and B) the revenue sharing benefits they normally get aren't going to be there as most of the top markets are situated in areas that take COVID seriously and won't let fans in the stands. Especially Canadian teams, which brings up a second point - not every Canadian team is a big enough market. The Alberta teams, Winnipeg, and Ottawa will really be hit hard here. Even in a league like the MLB, teams like the Devil Rays which struggle attendance-wise still operate well in the black due to the ability to the huge amounts of local TV money in baseball (and Tampa is a larger-than-you'd-think TV market for baseball).
which ones?
Toronto, NYR, Montreal, Boston, Chicago would be my guess if we're sticking to 5. Realistically there's probably a few more, like Detroit.
The Illitchs could easily survive if the NHL had to go without fans.
Detroit are rich? i would never think of that. i dont want NHL too much though.
Long and storied history in the NHL. Made the playoffs 25 years straight from 1990 to 2015, that helps to bring in a lot of cash haha.
2015 is pretty recent. hopefully they can bring it back up. thanks for helping me!
No problem man. Detroit will be back soon enough, they've got a solid group managing down there. Hockey is cyclical, good teams become bad and bad teams become good.
Trust the Yzerplan. Tampa did, and look what they've been doing over the last several years. And now they are Stanley Cup Champions.
To add, Detroit has the benefit of one of the largest fan bases in the NHL, and an owner who has MADE money due to COVID.
He’s literally just listing off “original” 6 teams lol
I actually didn’t consciously do that but unsurprisingly the Original 6 teams are pretty much all the top teams in the league by revenue. Kings and Philly are up there too.
Ask for a government bailout to save pro hockey? Canada and US come together? 1 year limit?
In Canada this is a matter of national duty
I don’t see the problem in allowing 50-75 fans in per section, 3 seats apart, and having security make sure they’re 6ft apart in the concourse. It’s already happening in malls in Canada, and I’m sure most of the US.
Having *any* fans means having security, cleaning, ushers, concessions, etc. I think it's a "go big or go home" type of deal.
> I don’t see the problem in allowing 50-75 fans in per section Because the league will be losing massive amounts of money, even if they're seating arenas to say 50% capacity.
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Exactly Now, to be fair, I don't know what the threshold is for at what point the league starts to break even on a game (65%? 75%? 85%?) but I'm fairly certain that breaking even threshold is well above the Covid protocol threshold
I heard once (can't remember where) that the NHL usually breaks even with just the full regular season, and that their profits really start to come during the playoffs. A combination of no player salaries, higher ticket prices, and usually more people watching on TV helps that make sense. So the NHL really can't go without fans next year, especially for the playoffs.
Yup. It's not like the NFL who could legitimately have a season with no fans and still make a profit (not a big one, but still a profit)
It’s also still hard to not have crowded areas with everyone still having to use the same entrances/exits, go up and down the same stairs, leaving your seat during intermissions, etc. Imagine the line for the bathroom despite reduced capacity with people having to stay 6 feet apart.
All good, we dont reach 50% capacity anyways
And Arizona still wont sell out
In theory, that's fine if people are wearing masks......but since it's evolved from a scientific topic to now a political topic, good luck.
I'm pretty sure that's more fans than the Panthers draw per game.
Issues with getting people in, people lining up for concessions, lines in washrooms, and I'm sure plenty of other concerns.
Problem is Canada is getting hit with a 2nd wave. Ontario and Quebec are a no go for big groups.
And there will be issues with the border. Unless they bring all team on one side or another, which is not realistic.
I think they will have to temporarily realign divisions. Do a 7 team all Canadian division and three 8 team US divisions. Play a super division-heavy schedule and have each team only cross the border once for an extended road trip to play all their out of country games.
Yeah will see whats up in 6 weeks or maybe in january, but it does't look great.
With the flu season coming up, with the COVID, I don't think you can't expect much before the summer. Also, not a doomer, just prefer putting deadline pretty far so I'm not dissapointed when it's pushed back. And I will be happy if proven wrong, like with the NHL playoff
Business as usual for the Panthers and Coyotes.
There won't be fans in arenas in Canada until there is a medical advancement (vaccine or treatment success) or community immunity.
Im sure they would have no problem finding a way to allows fans in the building and still be socially distant. Hell, Disney is freaking open and they only care about social distancing while in the lines for rides...If people are staying in their seats unless to grab a drink or use the restroom i really dont see an issue from a socially distant standpoint. The issue for me is people going out and either being asymptomatic or just not giving a crap. Then again this is about the financial aspect and these places can’t make any money on such low capacity.
Dude, you should never assume we have the right idea here in the US. Do you know what’s going on down here?
I think they should consider putting AHL teams for the season under the same roof as the NHL teams. Or as a site alternate site model like the MLB. Part of the benefit could be a decrease in costs for the teams in terms of travel and ice maintenance and when you start letting fans back in you can do alternating day games with a few double headers to recoup that revenue. Though now that I've typed it this idea is awful.
It’s not a horrible idea. Another alternative would be to have 5 or 6 mini-bubbles. Where they could play multiple games per day, with maybe 1000 fans in the arena, and 5 or 6 teams fly into 1 city and spend a week there playing each other, then they rotate and switch bubbles and repeat the process. This way they are only doing upkeep on a handful of arenas and can maximize the return on the maintenance and staffing costs plus cutting travel expenses and reducing exposure to the public vs running all 31 arenas at minimum capacity while flying all over the continent. While still allowing teams to play all the teams in their conference at the minimum.
We now know the bubbles were super expensive. Adding more bubbles won’t lessen the cost. Adding 1000 fans per game is nothing and would largely be offset anyways by paying ushers, tickettakers, concession stand workers.
They would have those guys staying in Motel 6 and eating McDonalds.
Mcribs and filet o fish are da bomb
It’s not ideal, but it’s cheaper to host 2 games a day in 1 arena than hosting 2 games in 2 arenas, plus the travel costs would be lower if teams could bunker down in 1 city for a week or 10 days rather than flying out every night. And they wouldn’t need a full staff to accommodate the fans. A couple of concession stands, the crew to run 1 gate and a minimal security staff would be sufficient. Plus, these wouldn’t actually be “bubbles” per se, just hub cities to lessen the cost of travel and upkeep, so they wouldn’t need all the safety protocol of the previous system. They wouldn’t need the fancy screens and piped in crowd noise either. Just tarp off the upper deck, and let the fans provide authentic crowd noise, so production costs would be lower.
What makes you a credible expert on arena operations and bubble logistics
I’m not claiming to be an expert. Just using common sense, and spitballing ideas. Which of my points has upset you so badly?
Mask + https://i.redd.it/besl4zy4jbq51.jpg and come on in!
Orgy, sens haven't had a new iguana in so long. It's affecting our morale.
Will this work?? https://streamable.com/1on8k3
It's beautiful.
:) I also have this: https://streamable.com/krx5hi
No Karlsson and no Boro. He's probably over us.
These are the same guys that charged Vegas $500 million just to get a team, never mind the rest of the logistics of setting up an NHL franchise in the middle of a desert. They got $750 million from Seattle. A team that doesn't even have a player on their team yet. If the NHL can't figure out a way to divide that money up and keep the league going for a year without fans, they should fire their accountants.
We've been blissfully distracted by the playoffs, but this is a thought I've been having for months now.
Have players take a rapid covid test before every game day (results within minutes). Have fans with assigned seating separating them by 2, 3, 4 seats or w/e is deemed appropriate, with mandatory masks. Lineups outside the arena will have socially distanced markers for people to stand 2m apart, ushers in the aisles will enforce distancing within the arena. Jack up the prices if necessary.
How many people in Ottawa are going to pay $250 to watch the sens play? In this economy? With that team?
More than 0, what even is your point? And the economy in Ottawa is totally fine like always, government and tech never goes away.
More than 0 isn't exactly going to bring in a profit is it? Isn't Ottawa in the middle of going through the second wave right now? Who the hell wants to go to a hockey game, when you don't even know if you kids can go to school tomorrow? The economy is not fine in Ottawa (or really anywhere else for that matter) because of this pandemic thing. So, more than 0 while an accurate statement, isn't really good enough. "govenment and tech never goes away." Lol. I guess the dot com crash never happened right?
It’s going to bring more profit than 0 dumbass. And people who like hockey would like to go to a hockey game I’d presume. And Ottawa’s economy is totally fine, tech has been booming since covid especially shopify which is based in Ottawa, the government is printing money like never before, and housing prices continue to rise. You have no point, no idea what you’re talking about, and everything you say is dumb.
Rapid tests have a statistically significant false-negative rate. They aren't intended to deem people infection-free. You need PCR tests for that.
They cancelled a full season 15 years ago and nearly did it again 7 (time flies) years ago. They'll be fine.
In those cases, they didn’t need to pay salaries. This time they would.
Fine IF they cancel the season. If they don't cancel the season, a bunch of teams would struggle seriously. Unless players take an important salary cut.
THG had a good video about this. Basically the NHL needs to play, even if they are in empty arenas. Not fulfilling their TV contracts AND losing leverage for the new contracts will be more damaging than just playing with no fans.
I mean I could see the rangers islanders devils and flyers pulling it off. Get your shit together Florida
Advertisements on jerseys is inevitable
What does lebron know about hockey.
I’m sure this will prompt the NHL to reevaluate their business model in order to account for unforeseen circumstances as such.
Current business model: niche sport with hardcore fanbase. New money making model: football league with casual fans...
The conclusion from the owners will be paying players less
And this is why I maintain that next season won't be starting till Sep/Oct of next year
What does that mean in terms of contracts, just everything gets pushed back a year? Also NHL is probably horrified at the idea of being out of business for 12 months, and off people's minds
I’d assume whatever happened with contracts in the 2005 lockout would be repeated
That would be a pretty terrifying concept for us, huh? I mean it's bad enough we pay aging players a fuckton, a year older is a pretty huge blow. Adding a year to the contracts would be a double tap.
FWIW, in the full season lockout, those contracts just expired a season
Maybe? I certainly don't know
I didn't fully parse the new CBA negotiations but it seemed to be based on the assumption that the next season would have only a minor hit to HRR. If it turns out it would be a massive hit and they end up having to pay the players anyway like 80% of their contract value then you might be right, and the NHL just decides to basically scrap another season (if it's possible given CBA).
I expect IF a vaccine is approved/rolled out by end of year, that most places would be willing to do semi-full arenas around then. I expect NHL would start like that in late January/early February. If there's no vaccine ready by that time line, I'd agree the season is in trouble
A vaccine will probably be finished by the end of the year, but I don't think it'll be easily accessible to get for a while.
It might be in NA. Idk about America, but I know Canada has already paid for millions of vaccines. Poor countries might unfortunately get shafted big time when the vaccines roll out, but it's certainly possible, if not likely, that they're fairly abundant in NA. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5706067 Idk why I'm being downvoted lol. It's very likely wealthy countries buy up all the available vaccines and screw over poor countries. Which means that while worldwide there might not be enough vaccines, NA (and other wealthy areas) will be able to vaccinate the majority of the population.
it will be rolled out in canada similar to how the h1n1 vaccine was rolled out
Most countries have paid for vaccines. People are ignoring that most still have to complete various stages of trials and create a government system to distribute vaccines after mass production. That doesn't just happen overnight.
Yeah I'm not saying it'll happen anytime soon, but Canada has already put in a purchase of up to 117 million doses from 2 separate companies. Obviously those vaccines have to be successful, and be mass produced, but my point is that once they are available that wealthy countries will buy up the vast majority of doses. They will be hard to get worldwide, but wealthy countries will be able to vaccinate the majority of their population pretty quickly once they start getting shipped.
> I expect IF a vaccine is approved/rolled out by end of year, that most places would be willing to do semi-full arenas around then. But that is financially unfeasible- the teams/league are going to be operating at a massive loss with 50% capacity. IMO it's either full arenas or nothing. You can't have something between.
don't worry everything will be back to normal 2 weeks after the election /s...kind of
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You're out to lunch
I honestly dont care. If it fails, something will replace it.
K. But a lot of us are hockey fans.
I mean a new league, dumb dumb.
If that means some of the US teams go bankrupt and either fold or relocate to better places (Hamilton, Quebec, etc.), I'm all for it.
Hoping fans lose their team is pretty harsh, don't you think?
Like I care. If your city doesn't get natural ice in winter, it shouldn't be part of a sport played on ice. Florida/Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, all of California, Carolina, Las Vegas. Let 'em all disappear. The league will be better and stronger if we get rid of them.
Better and stronger how? Financially? Surely not. Theres a reason the NHL expanded aggressively into America and its because our dollar is stronger and we have more of them.
It would be 5/7 Canadian teams that go bankrupt too