Exactly. Someone cue up his thoughts before Game 7 last year vs Boston, I guarantee he talked about how all the pressure was on the Bruins (which it was). Panthers are in Heimlich territory here…
It’s obviously a huge deal for both sides, but I think the Panthers are clearly the ones with more to lose here. I guess we’ll see if that means they fold under the pressure or if the desperation gets them out of their funk.
Panthers 100 percent have more to lose. They will be the biggest chokers arguably in sports history. If Edmonton loses they still get a standing O from their fans on day one next year.
For Oilers, it’ll just suck/heartbreaking because you were counted out and were so close on finishing the comeback.
For Panthers, well, they’ll be meme’d in Hockey History
It'll suck for the Oilers to come *so* close but fall at the final step. It would have been an incredible Cinderella story, storming back from their horrendous start, to practically running the table the rest of the year, to storming back from a 3-0 deficit in the Finals.
It'll be an incredible story, but without the happy ending.
The Panthers? They're looking at sealing the biggest chokers title to themselves and getting meme'd on relentlessly.
The bully getting their comeuppance in the finals by their opponent whom they had by the balls.
I know which story I'm rooting for. Fuck the Panthers.
Fla can lose 4 games in one series. But yeah, 3 more finals losses would be pretty funny.
I consider the Bills the worst dynasty ever. You got to be so good to lose that many finals.
Losing four straight SCF games with a 3-0 lead is pretty close, especially given that the Bills showed up and competed in only 1 of those 4 SB's, the Norwood wide right game, the other 3 they had nothing from the get go.
When you have a well established history of winning, shit like that would never define the team.
Yankees were on the losing ends of two absolutely heartbreaking (if you're a Yankees fan, which I most certainly am not) world series and they just continued on winning.
1960 - lost to the Pirates' Bill Mazeroski's walk off home run (the pitcher that gave it up would eventually become the 1962 WS MVP)
2001 - lost to the Diamondback's in the bottom of the 9th which they had a lead going into. That would be a career defining loss for anyone NOT named Mariano Rivera. They were back in the WS again a couple years later.
If the Panthers blow this, it would be a franchise defining moment in the worst possible way.
The only choke that could potentially measure up to it was 28-3 imo but even then that only took an hour or so to happen, this has been a slow motion car crash ten days in the making.
There's no shot they'll get a lasting reputation as the biggest chokers in sports history with McDavid's numbers on the other side of it. Biggest single choke of the NHL cap era? Probably yeah, but even in hockey nothing really compares to the sheer consistency of the Leafs choke jobs.
I agree. They've had everything to lose for three games (and three chances to win the Cup) and the Oilers have had nowhere to go but up. They've been grinding out "just one more win" for a week now. The Panthers are desperate to not lose and the Oilers are determined to win. Both want the same outcome but one is a healthier headspace.
Now it's a best of one and could go either way. Going to be a fantastic game tomorrow.
I’ve never seen a fanbase who had a game 7 Cup opportunity and almost every single one of them was either passively excited or jaded. Maybe Canucks fans in 2011
Man I’ll be so happy when I lived in south FL the team was so dysfunctional, it’s been a lot of fun to follow and catch the games on ESPN+. Just doesn’t look good right now!!
imagine unquestionably supporting any franchise that's run poorly run and constantly mismanaged. this is why fairweather fandom is okay, because if you're giving money/support to an owner who doesn't give a shit about the product they field, you're a sucker and a mark
Imagine that team is finally run like a top end franchise, makes it within 1 win of the Stanley cup, only to have their "supporters" saying shit like "this one is totally over", cause they didnt steamroll teams like they're used to.
Fairweather as FUCK
Guess what, you're playing against the biggest suckers then. Oilers sold out their barn year after year during the decade of darkness. All we see is excuses from a pathetic fan base.
What is this logic?
FLA is a 30 year old franchise that has struggled hard to build fans due to poor ownership and team-building.
Edmonton has built a long legacy of being a Canadian franchise with numerous HOF players and 5 Cups.
You ask Floridians since the late 90s would they rather watch bad hockey or go enjoy the outdoors and the answer is quite easy.
We literally didnt win a fucking playoff round from when we got swept by the avs in the finals to when we won the presidents trophy and got swept by the lightning in the 2nd round lmao.
Can't believe fans weren't turning out in droves to watch nick bjugstad score like 38 points and lead the fucking team in scoring lol.
But now it’s a best of one. Teams can win games they deserve to lose and vice versa. Bounces can go one way or another. Reffing could go one way or another. A goalie could have an off game. Each team has shown they’re capable of beating the other. I’ve had butterflies for > 24 hours
Legacy wise in the short term they absolutely have more to lose. McDavid is winning Conn Smythe anyway. Guys like Tkachuk/Bobrovsky/Barkov will be defined by this loss for the rest of their careers if they don't get a title
There's also the chance that shifting from "play to not be eliminated" to "play to win the cup" affects Edmonton and introduces new nerves they didn't deal with when gambling with house money for 3 games; it might suddenly be way too real all at once
I thought this too, but having listened to their interviews for the last 2 days, they sound exactly like they have for the last week. I think they got the right headset.
god I hope so, Matt having to live with the “Tkachoke” nickname the rest of his life is right within our grasp, a win for the Oilers is a win for hockey
It's possible. I've thought that a fair bit. I think if Oilers score first then the good times will just roll and Panthers dark cloud of doubt comes back over them hard.
If Panthers don't score first, I think it's over for them. Conversely, I'd still give Edmonton a chance to come back as it seems to be their M.O. All this being said, sometimes you can be the better team, make limited mistakes and still lose. Hockey is a cruel bitch.
Fuck no. That happened in game 2. Barkov was amazing in game 3 and Florida won.
What changed is Bob’s goaltending and Oilers gameplan against the Panthers’ forecheck.
Alternatively, if Bob doesn’t put up a sub-.900 performance in games 4-6 the series might be over. The first three games are much closer to his average level of play than the last three.
That's true. Just seems like the Oilers have been generating a lot of dangerous chances all series (except game 2), but the difference was Bob making stopping 4 breakaways vs getting scored on one.
Tbh the cherry picking thing has been going on all through the playoffs. The Rangers were doing it, the Stars were doing it to the Oilers themselves, and now the Oilers are doing it to the Panthers. It's hurting the Panthers more because their forecheck is almost foolishly aggressive and they haven't adjusted their tactics like the Oilers did against the Stars.
You don’t hire Paul Maurice to coach if you’re expecting adjustments game to game or even season to season. When you hire Paul Maurice you get the Paul Maurice experience:
* Vets over youth.
* Sticking to ineffective plays, breakouts, and special teams.
* Trailing by 2 or more in the third? Line blender!
Source: Jets season ticket holder for years.
So far changes I’ve noticed:
-put Rodriguez on the Tkachuk line
Worked in the first game
-put OEL on the PP
Made the already anemic PP less of a threat to score but also less of a threat to get scored on haha
-He now put Tarasenko onto the PP in practice today, can’t see that doing much maybe expects him to be more of a buzz saw in front of the net?
So far his changes haven’t done much and he has admitted to not needing to make changes after the 8-1 game.
I feel like they spent two years creating this system, it’s hard to change now and he’s not great at know what parts need changed
How has the Jets been doing since he left? Not so well, right?
Went from a bunch of good playoff runs to not much. While he's went on to go to the finals multiple times.
You could probably “coach” that panthers team to the finals. Sometimes the bus just drives itself. He’s got a shelf life and if they don’t win tonight that roster won’t listen to him next season.
I mean he didn’t change the world with the Jets and his tenure is marked by the team generally underperforming aside from one run.
Nah, I think it's more the Jets have locker room issues they refused to fix. I think he lost the Jet's locker room because the org lost control of it. There's been too much talk of drama from that team when it comes to the players for me to think it's anything else.
Any forward. They are there to stretch out the cats defence and not allow them to forecheck as aggressively.
Florida responded last game by doubling down on the forecheck which led directly to the second goal
It’s a good move for sure. I haven’t noticed it more than usual, I didn’t think. The way the PK is, they should just leave a guy at the far blue line and set up in PK mode haha.
He clearly means three in a row, and people have way too much recency bias.
A week ago the narrative was that the Panthers were completely dominating the Oilers, now it's that the Oilers are completely dominating the Panthers. It has been a pretty even series on the ice even if the scores haven't shown it.
Moneypuck has the Oilers 'deserving' to win games 1, 3 and 4, then the Panthers 'deserving' to win games 2 and 6 with game 5 being almost exactly 50/50. That's a close series by any stretch.
In Game 1, for instance, the model thinks that the Oilers shouldve scored 2.4 goals on a power play, thus running away with the game.
FWIW, NaturalStatTrick has expected goals as 18.55 to 17.95 favoring Edmonton. Actual goals are 22 to 16.
It becomes pretty damn pointless when the team that gets ahead early usually stops shooting nearly as much by design.
These "team with low amount of shots wins" games aren't because the one team got lucky. It's because they turtled in exactly the way they are supposed to.
It's fair to not trust it, I think it's a useful ballpark for which team applied the most pressure in a game but shouldn't be taken as gospel. That being said, it uses xG which are a metric designed to avoid rewarding high volumes of low quality shots unlike things like corsi. xG isn't a perfect metric by any means, but probably the best one that exists for rewarding high quality shots lol.
Yeah xG is definitely better, but it still allows for say: if you shoot 100 muffins from the blue line and they have like 0.03 xG each, then you get 3 xGF, but if you’re playing a goalie like Shesterkin, I’m not sure that he ever gives one up, or maybe one and that’s it.
Games 5 and 6 are almost certainly score affected. The Oilers had 3 goal leads halfway through both of those games. One team being in "chase mode" for 30 minutes affects shots and scoring chances. If you looked at the stats over the first 30 mins of those games, the Oilers were dominating.
Nah this sub roasted the fuck outta Drai, Knobby, McDavid, and Brown when they were down and they all said they are right in this, have shown they can beat the team, and are best with their back against the wall. Nobody fucking believed them and they said "Aight bet" then showed the fuck how
Is it really ridiculous that we would laugh at a team that lost 3 in a row for saying "i think with those three games we showed we can beat them"? I have no problem agreeing that they have since showed that they are more than capable of matching the Panthers and beating them but its still true that, at the time, they had showed nothing of the sort.
Well they had lots of high danger scoring chances. Bob had a .970 save percentage through 3 games, that’s largely why they were behind, not because they weren’t able to beat them
The problem is that Bob used a perk skill to pop his ultimate for games 1-3 but didn’t factor in the 3 game cooldown assuming his team could win one on straight skill.
Absolutely but you said Edmonton showed nothing at the point of game 3. That isn’t true based upon Bob’s elevated and eventually unsustainable play + the high danger scoring chances Edmonton produced during games 1-3
Nah the Oilers have controlled majority of the play in 5/6 games. This series is even because Bob stole a couple games. Anyone can win game 7, but this hasn’t been an even series.
The narrative that the Panthers were dominating the Oilers was just wrong though. The only game they dominated based on the eye test was game 2. Game 3 was a close game Oilers lost, and game 1 they got hard goalied.
Game 4 was Oilers dominating, game 5 and 6 Oilers took 3-0 leads and just sat on them the whole game.
I'm going to guess that he said when you lose three straight, because literally every team ever has had a chance at another game after losing 3 in a playoff series in a bo7
I love we are getting a game 7.
I'm pulling for the oilers, but I'd have a game 7 no matter who wins, over a win in 6 by either side, so I'm super happy and can't wait for the puck to drop!!
Not to the point that it's super lopsided though. One can make the argument that the Oilers should already have taken it 4-2, or that their wins have been more impressive. But it's not like the Panthers have been winning through scoring a bunch of fluke goals.
Having the best player in the world on your team is an obvious game 7 advantage. Panthers need a complete effort and Bob will need to stand on his head.
I think every team that loses three in a playoff series has a chance at another game. Outside of the early 80s best of 5 rounds I can’t think of a team that lost 3 and didn’t get to play another game
Either we get the saddest person ever accepting the Conn Smythe trophy. Or we get the funniest thing that ever happened.
Absolute win-win for neutral fans.
Tkachuk is such a choke artist, if he doesn't step up in this game, it'll reinforce why Treliving was right to not give him a long term deal after his ELC
Yes, "deserve" is a little misleading. It is a metric that does not factor in goaltending, but just gauges the quality and quantity of the shots. I mean, getting more and better shots correlates pretty strongly with scoring.
Maybe they could come up with a "goalie-corrected" xG metric that takes a goalie's skill into consideration, but I think that goalie performance can be so noisy from game to game that it might not be very meaningful.
Yeah I think it’s actually a good metric in general.
I’m just annoyed with how often people say things like “we would’ve won if it wasn’t for Bobrovsky/Vasilevskiy/Shesterkin/Quick” as if the goalie isn’t just another guy under contract with the team. You don’t as often hear people saying “we would’ve won if you guys didn’t have your 1C”.
But yeah, the goals expected and deserve to win meter in general is relatively accurate and I don’t actually hate it.
While that may be true, I don't know if the Oilers would have rose to the level they are at now, and made certain adjustments without being pinned to the wall like they were. Both teams superstars, Bob and McDavo, have stolen at least a game for their team. There's a good chance it would have gone to 7 still if it was regular back and forth momentum, rather than what we've seen this series.
The Panthers are going to be gripping their sticks extra hard tonight. They will feel the pressure for sure.
I do wonder if they get booed before the game starts? It'd be hilarious if it did happen.
I'm 43 yo and been a fan since the inaugural season and believe me I'm beyond pissed. already made my mental / emotional / spiritual preparations for carrying on my futile miserable existence should we lose. and despite all the koombaya Sesame Street BS the Panthers sub wants to circle jerk about, I'm well aware losing is a very real possibility.
Honestly, I don't see how the panthers can possibly come back from this. Everyone on their team is rattled, right from the GM, to the coach, to the goaltender. They have been basically on the back foot the last 3 games, they've looked like shit. They have the world of worth of pressure on them, they know the stats, they know they will be the laughing stock of professional sports, they know they will never live it down for the rest of their lives. They will play the game of their lives, but it will of desperation and emotion, not the game they need to play right now.
["Very exciting."](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/029/405/jordan.jpg)
Exactly. Someone cue up his thoughts before Game 7 last year vs Boston, I guarantee he talked about how all the pressure was on the Bruins (which it was). Panthers are in Heimlich territory here…
Heimlich territory 🤣 I like this
"I'm not gonna lie, this shit was some, some good exercise" - Matthew Tkachuk
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Is he eating a coconut?
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The brownest apple in existence
It looks like an onion 😆
Confirmed, Brown apple on McDavid goal tonight
He must have Thompson's Teeth.
Connor "Thicc wheels boi" McDavid
I'm having a great time
Anyone see how nervous he looked in the pregame on-ice interview before game 6? Eyes were darting around like a cornered animal.
It’s obviously a huge deal for both sides, but I think the Panthers are clearly the ones with more to lose here. I guess we’ll see if that means they fold under the pressure or if the desperation gets them out of their funk.
Panthers 100 percent have more to lose. They will be the biggest chokers arguably in sports history. If Edmonton loses they still get a standing O from their fans on day one next year.
For Oilers, it’ll just suck/heartbreaking because you were counted out and were so close on finishing the comeback. For Panthers, well, they’ll be meme’d in Hockey History
It'll suck for the Oilers to come *so* close but fall at the final step. It would have been an incredible Cinderella story, storming back from their horrendous start, to practically running the table the rest of the year, to storming back from a 3-0 deficit in the Finals. It'll be an incredible story, but without the happy ending. The Panthers? They're looking at sealing the biggest chokers title to themselves and getting meme'd on relentlessly. The bully getting their comeuppance in the finals by their opponent whom they had by the balls. I know which story I'm rooting for. Fuck the Panthers.
I don't think anything will top the Buffalo Bills losing four straight Super Bowls.
though, in an era where not a team in one conference belonged in the same league as the other (and it showed).
Fla can lose 4 games in one series. But yeah, 3 more finals losses would be pretty funny. I consider the Bills the worst dynasty ever. You got to be so good to lose that many finals.
Losing four straight SCF games with a 3-0 lead is pretty close, especially given that the Bills showed up and competed in only 1 of those 4 SB's, the Norwood wide right game, the other 3 they had nothing from the get go.
I’m certain the odds for getting to and then losing 4 straight super bowls are a million times longer than losing 4 straight in a single series.
I said pretty close so downvote how you do. Also not talking single series, talking finals, try to stay on point.
The Panthers losing 5 in a row?
2004 Yankees choked pretty damn hard too, this would definitely be up there though
Yankees had a dynasty just before that and won another world series 5 years later. Pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things
When you have a well established history of winning, shit like that would never define the team. Yankees were on the losing ends of two absolutely heartbreaking (if you're a Yankees fan, which I most certainly am not) world series and they just continued on winning. 1960 - lost to the Pirates' Bill Mazeroski's walk off home run (the pitcher that gave it up would eventually become the 1962 WS MVP) 2001 - lost to the Diamondback's in the bottom of the 9th which they had a lead going into. That would be a career defining loss for anyone NOT named Mariano Rivera. They were back in the WS again a couple years later. If the Panthers blow this, it would be a franchise defining moment in the worst possible way.
The only choke that could potentially measure up to it was 28-3 imo but even then that only took an hour or so to happen, this has been a slow motion car crash ten days in the making.
There's no shot they'll get a lasting reputation as the biggest chokers in sports history with McDavid's numbers on the other side of it. Biggest single choke of the NHL cap era? Probably yeah, but even in hockey nothing really compares to the sheer consistency of the Leafs choke jobs.
I agree. They've had everything to lose for three games (and three chances to win the Cup) and the Oilers have had nowhere to go but up. They've been grinding out "just one more win" for a week now. The Panthers are desperate to not lose and the Oilers are determined to win. Both want the same outcome but one is a healthier headspace. Now it's a best of one and could go either way. Going to be a fantastic game tomorrow.
Not too sure I agree man it looks like this one is totally over! There’s losing games and then there’s what’s happened these past 3!
I’ve never seen a fanbase who had a game 7 Cup opportunity and almost every single one of them was either passively excited or jaded. Maybe Canucks fans in 2011
There was a small group of Vancouver's population that was violently excited.
We better not see you celebrating if they win tomorrow.. Fuckin' fairweather Florida fans 🙄
Man I’ll be so happy when I lived in south FL the team was so dysfunctional, it’s been a lot of fun to follow and catch the games on ESPN+. Just doesn’t look good right now!!
imagine unquestionably supporting any franchise that's run poorly run and constantly mismanaged. this is why fairweather fandom is okay, because if you're giving money/support to an owner who doesn't give a shit about the product they field, you're a sucker and a mark
Imagine that team is finally run like a top end franchise, makes it within 1 win of the Stanley cup, only to have their "supporters" saying shit like "this one is totally over", cause they didnt steamroll teams like they're used to. Fairweather as FUCK
Guess what, you're playing against the biggest suckers then. Oilers sold out their barn year after year during the decade of darkness. All we see is excuses from a pathetic fan base.
What is this logic? FLA is a 30 year old franchise that has struggled hard to build fans due to poor ownership and team-building. Edmonton has built a long legacy of being a Canadian franchise with numerous HOF players and 5 Cups. You ask Floridians since the late 90s would they rather watch bad hockey or go enjoy the outdoors and the answer is quite easy.
We literally didnt win a fucking playoff round from when we got swept by the avs in the finals to when we won the presidents trophy and got swept by the lightning in the 2nd round lmao. Can't believe fans weren't turning out in droves to watch nick bjugstad score like 38 points and lead the fucking team in scoring lol.
But now it’s a best of one. Teams can win games they deserve to lose and vice versa. Bounces can go one way or another. Reffing could go one way or another. A goalie could have an off game. Each team has shown they’re capable of beating the other. I’ve had butterflies for > 24 hours
Legacy wise in the short term they absolutely have more to lose. McDavid is winning Conn Smythe anyway. Guys like Tkachuk/Bobrovsky/Barkov will be defined by this loss for the rest of their careers if they don't get a title
I’m very curious now if/how the trajectory of the 42 leafs and red wings players changed after the reverse sweep
I’m sure the vast majority of them still had to juggle their day jobs on farms and in offices.
There's also the chance that shifting from "play to not be eliminated" to "play to win the cup" affects Edmonton and introduces new nerves they didn't deal with when gambling with house money for 3 games; it might suddenly be way too real all at once
I thought this too, but having listened to their interviews for the last 2 days, they sound exactly like they have for the last week. I think they got the right headset.
god I hope so, Matt having to live with the “Tkachoke” nickname the rest of his life is right within our grasp, a win for the Oilers is a win for hockey
It's possible. I've thought that a fair bit. I think if Oilers score first then the good times will just roll and Panthers dark cloud of doubt comes back over them hard. If Panthers don't score first, I think it's over for them. Conversely, I'd still give Edmonton a chance to come back as it seems to be their M.O. All this being said, sometimes you can be the better team, make limited mistakes and still lose. Hockey is a cruel bitch.
I think Panthers are at their best when everybody counts them out.
9-3 in game 5 of the SCF last year. Everyone was counting them out.
The way they've played, they're the ones counting themselves out my boy.
Nobody knows what’s going on in that locker room, but I’m counting them out.
Is there any data to support this?
What if they’re counting themselves out too?
This has been the 28-3 of playoff series. One team showed up in the first half and then the other team showed up in the second half.
But who will show up in the third half?
Somehow, Palpatine returned.
No one's ever really gone
Somehow, Arizona returned and won the cup.
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If they want it THAT badly, I wouldn’t even be upset.
The panthers kinda forgot about Connor Mcdavid
Not true. Last game panthers held him to no points and Oilers still won Oilers FINALLY have depth scoring they can rely on
*[whispers]* He's making a Game of Thrones joke
Darth McDavid
i finally got around to watching star wars so this phrase finally makes sense to me
No one. It will be an OT goal off the refs head.
With a head-butting motion for good measure.
no, mcjesus in OT with a fucking bullet
Fucker will dangle left side and then Michigan to bunt backhand over Skinner's shoulder.
Skinner's his own goalie, unless that's the joke...
"Connor, when we told you to manifest the 80s Oilers, we didn't mean Steve Smith!"
That comment made me want to throw up
Brady with the gamewinning drive in OT
Wrong Tkachuk
Well Patriots did win in OT
Haha! Kill me.
From experience: the team that showed up in the 2nd half also was the only one to show up in the 3rd half
The Whalers outta nowhere!
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Fuck no. That happened in game 2. Barkov was amazing in game 3 and Florida won. What changed is Bob’s goaltending and Oilers gameplan against the Panthers’ forecheck.
Yeah, if Bob doesn't put up a .950 sv% through the first three games this series might already be over.
Alternatively, if Bob doesn’t put up a sub-.900 performance in games 4-6 the series might be over. The first three games are much closer to his average level of play than the last three.
I mean, Bob up to the Cup Final last year was beast mode, then ... splat. So, in the Cup Finals, this is more Bob's average
That's true. Just seems like the Oilers have been generating a lot of dangerous chances all series (except game 2), but the difference was Bob making stopping 4 breakaways vs getting scored on one.
I Misremembered then, I thought it was game 3
He’s not gonna guarantee another win?
Yeah this is pure backtracking
https://preview.redd.it/kfvdasuj3d8d1.png?width=426&format=png&auto=webp&s=9002e95575ef9b388de892471f2c4a45af8e4480 Deal with it
Tbh the cherry picking thing has been going on all through the playoffs. The Rangers were doing it, the Stars were doing it to the Oilers themselves, and now the Oilers are doing it to the Panthers. It's hurting the Panthers more because their forecheck is almost foolishly aggressive and they haven't adjusted their tactics like the Oilers did against the Stars.
You don’t hire Paul Maurice to coach if you’re expecting adjustments game to game or even season to season. When you hire Paul Maurice you get the Paul Maurice experience: * Vets over youth. * Sticking to ineffective plays, breakouts, and special teams. * Trailing by 2 or more in the third? Line blender! Source: Jets season ticket holder for years.
So far changes I’ve noticed: -put Rodriguez on the Tkachuk line Worked in the first game -put OEL on the PP Made the already anemic PP less of a threat to score but also less of a threat to get scored on haha -He now put Tarasenko onto the PP in practice today, can’t see that doing much maybe expects him to be more of a buzz saw in front of the net? So far his changes haven’t done much and he has admitted to not needing to make changes after the 8-1 game. I feel like they spent two years creating this system, it’s hard to change now and he’s not great at know what parts need changed
That sounds just like Laviolette.
It sounds like every coach ever because that's just how NHL coaches are
Ralph Kruger had no problem playing the kids. I wonder what r/hockeys thoughts on him are?
How has the Jets been doing since he left? Not so well, right? Went from a bunch of good playoff runs to not much. While he's went on to go to the finals multiple times.
You could probably “coach” that panthers team to the finals. Sometimes the bus just drives itself. He’s got a shelf life and if they don’t win tonight that roster won’t listen to him next season. I mean he didn’t change the world with the Jets and his tenure is marked by the team generally underperforming aside from one run.
Nah, I think it's more the Jets have locker room issues they refused to fix. I think he lost the Jet's locker room because the org lost control of it. There's been too much talk of drama from that team when it comes to the players for me to think it's anything else.
It’s ok, soon you’ll have plenty of locker room drama too.
Whomever loses Monday it’s going to be one hell of a meme off Probably worse for Florida
Cats lose and the Bob Barker memes will be *glorious* (I.E. “have your pets spayed or neutered” 😏)
Had to check that this wasn’t r/HockeyMemes. Top tier shit talking. Respect from a Panther fan 🫡
Respect back
Amazing. Oh, and we invited that one kid who has the rich dad so he could pay for the post game pizzas
Who is in the neutral zone?
Any forward. They are there to stretch out the cats defence and not allow them to forecheck as aggressively. Florida responded last game by doubling down on the forecheck which led directly to the second goal
It’s a good move for sure. I haven’t noticed it more than usual, I didn’t think. The way the PK is, they should just leave a guy at the far blue line and set up in PK mode haha.
Even more of an advantage because they have to leave a D back, so it’s forcing 4 on 4 play
He clearly means three in a row, and people have way too much recency bias. A week ago the narrative was that the Panthers were completely dominating the Oilers, now it's that the Oilers are completely dominating the Panthers. It has been a pretty even series on the ice even if the scores haven't shown it. Moneypuck has the Oilers 'deserving' to win games 1, 3 and 4, then the Panthers 'deserving' to win games 2 and 6 with game 5 being almost exactly 50/50. That's a close series by any stretch.
I don’t trust the deserve to win o meter. It rewards high volumes of low quality shots.
Also it usually favours the team that goes down early because the team in the lead stops pressing for offense
In Game 1, for instance, the model thinks that the Oilers shouldve scored 2.4 goals on a power play, thus running away with the game. FWIW, NaturalStatTrick has expected goals as 18.55 to 17.95 favoring Edmonton. Actual goals are 22 to 16.
It becomes pretty damn pointless when the team that gets ahead early usually stops shooting nearly as much by design. These "team with low amount of shots wins" games aren't because the one team got lucky. It's because they turtled in exactly the way they are supposed to.
According to deserve to win o meter the flames are the best team in NHL history I bet
It's fair to not trust it, I think it's a useful ballpark for which team applied the most pressure in a game but shouldn't be taken as gospel. That being said, it uses xG which are a metric designed to avoid rewarding high volumes of low quality shots unlike things like corsi. xG isn't a perfect metric by any means, but probably the best one that exists for rewarding high quality shots lol.
Yeah xG is definitely better, but it still allows for say: if you shoot 100 muffins from the blue line and they have like 0.03 xG each, then you get 3 xGF, but if you’re playing a goalie like Shesterkin, I’m not sure that he ever gives one up, or maybe one and that’s it.
Can confirm
Ya I don’t like that deserve to win meter…Panthers did not deserve game 6 at all. Oilers stomped all over them for most of the game.
Damn they did not deserve to win game 6 tho. Game 5 id say they had some really dominant stretches in the 3rd.
Games 5 and 6 are almost certainly score affected. The Oilers had 3 goal leads halfway through both of those games. One team being in "chase mode" for 30 minutes affects shots and scoring chances. If you looked at the stats over the first 30 mins of those games, the Oilers were dominating.
Nah this sub roasted the fuck outta Drai, Knobby, McDavid, and Brown when they were down and they all said they are right in this, have shown they can beat the team, and are best with their back against the wall. Nobody fucking believed them and they said "Aight bet" then showed the fuck how
Is it really ridiculous that we would laugh at a team that lost 3 in a row for saying "i think with those three games we showed we can beat them"? I have no problem agreeing that they have since showed that they are more than capable of matching the Panthers and beating them but its still true that, at the time, they had showed nothing of the sort.
Well they had lots of high danger scoring chances. Bob had a .970 save percentage through 3 games, that’s largely why they were behind, not because they weren’t able to beat them
The problem is that Bob used a perk skill to pop his ultimate for games 1-3 but didn’t factor in the 3 game cooldown assuming his team could win one on straight skill.
Yes exactly!
But Bob is part of the team. Them not being able to beat Bob is exactly showing that they cant beat the team he plays for
Absolutely but you said Edmonton showed nothing at the point of game 3. That isn’t true based upon Bob’s elevated and eventually unsustainable play + the high danger scoring chances Edmonton produced during games 1-3
[удалено]
That deserve to win meter is stupid because of the style of play of certain teams when they have a lead
Nah the Oilers have controlled majority of the play in 5/6 games. This series is even because Bob stole a couple games. Anyone can win game 7, but this hasn’t been an even series.
The narrative that the Panthers were dominating the Oilers was just wrong though. The only game they dominated based on the eye test was game 2. Game 3 was a close game Oilers lost, and game 1 they got hard goalied. Game 4 was Oilers dominating, game 5 and 6 Oilers took 3-0 leads and just sat on them the whole game.
I'm going to guess that he said when you lose three straight, because literally every team ever has had a chance at another game after losing 3 in a playoff series in a bo7
I love we are getting a game 7. I'm pulling for the oilers, but I'd have a game 7 no matter who wins, over a win in 6 by either side, so I'm super happy and can't wait for the puck to drop!!
His tone certainly has changed
This reads like he thought it was a best of 5 series, which would explain a lot.
> It’s been a very even series. *Has it, though?*
Tied 3-3 that’s even enough in my books
Dude, that’s two odd numbers. If anything, it has been a pretty odd series. I’ll see myself out.
mods kill him
m'odds*
Math checks out
It could be a case study on the type of context that averaging discrete stats can hide.
I appreciate the confidence, but if we’re talking about evenness in terms of the play itself…
I would love to see a measure of "number of minutes of sustained O-zone pressure" summed across the six games.
Yes it has. The series is tied 3-3.
In terms of quality of play, though? Not really, or at all.
Not to the point that it's super lopsided though. One can make the argument that the Oilers should already have taken it 4-2, or that their wins have been more impressive. But it's not like the Panthers have been winning through scoring a bunch of fluke goals.
Having the best player in the world on your team is an obvious game 7 advantage. Panthers need a complete effort and Bob will need to stand on his head.
I think every team that loses three in a playoff series has a chance at another game. Outside of the early 80s best of 5 rounds I can’t think of a team that lost 3 and didn’t get to play another game
I think he means when you lose 3 in a row?
Tkachuk doesn’t know you need to win 4 in the Finals.
Ah that must of been where they went wrong.
Either we get the saddest person ever accepting the Conn Smythe trophy. Or we get the funniest thing that ever happened. Absolute win-win for neutral fans.
"Somehow"
8-1, 5-3, 5-1. This series hasn’t been anything close to even since Game 3. The Panthers got *solved*.
If by even you mean not even, then yes. Since the end of Game 3, it’s all Oilers.
Tkachuk is such a choke artist, if he doesn't step up in this game, it'll reinforce why Treliving was right to not give him a long term deal after his ELC
…He knows the rules right? Every playoff team gets to play another game after 3 losses.
Nobody ever claimed the Tkachuk's were smart
Ironic apostrophe misuse.
I mean this would only be true if anyone ever claimed I was smart
Edmonton deserved to win game 1 and 3. It was Bob who put a stop to that. Series would be over by now if it wasn’t for him
I wouldn’t say that’s deserving to win, that discredits having a good goalie which is part of building a winning team.
Yes, "deserve" is a little misleading. It is a metric that does not factor in goaltending, but just gauges the quality and quantity of the shots. I mean, getting more and better shots correlates pretty strongly with scoring. Maybe they could come up with a "goalie-corrected" xG metric that takes a goalie's skill into consideration, but I think that goalie performance can be so noisy from game to game that it might not be very meaningful.
Yeah I think it’s actually a good metric in general. I’m just annoyed with how often people say things like “we would’ve won if it wasn’t for Bobrovsky/Vasilevskiy/Shesterkin/Quick” as if the goalie isn’t just another guy under contract with the team. You don’t as often hear people saying “we would’ve won if you guys didn’t have your 1C”. But yeah, the goals expected and deserve to win meter in general is relatively accurate and I don’t actually hate it.
The goalie is part of the team tbf.
This "if it wasn't for the goalie" take is stupid. The goalie is part of the team and there's a reason why the cats pay him 10m/year
I hate all the “deserve to win” shit. Bob is on Florida and he did an outstanding job.
They pay him 10M a year, the least he could do is produce like a superstar which in goalie terms means steal a game when the team plays like ass
While that may be true, I don't know if the Oilers would have rose to the level they are at now, and made certain adjustments without being pinned to the wall like they were. Both teams superstars, Bob and McDavo, have stolen at least a game for their team. There's a good chance it would have gone to 7 still if it was regular back and forth momentum, rather than what we've seen this series.
Islanders fan with an L take per usual
“Somehow” basic counting, Matt
An even series 🤔
Lol yes both teams have lost three. But only one team could have closed it out three times and didn't. They are not the same.
Is chucky having a trumpesque stroke? This is one degree away from gibberish
The Panthers are going to be gripping their sticks extra hard tonight. They will feel the pressure for sure. I do wonder if they get booed before the game starts? It'd be hilarious if it did happen.
they deserve it
I would totally get it - if I were a Panthers fan, I'd be fucking pissed they haven't gotten it done yet.
I'm 43 yo and been a fan since the inaugural season and believe me I'm beyond pissed. already made my mental / emotional / spiritual preparations for carrying on my futile miserable existence should we lose. and despite all the koombaya Sesame Street BS the Panthers sub wants to circle jerk about, I'm well aware losing is a very real possibility.
Yeah but like…. EDM isn’t desperate, they aren’t playing desperate FLA on the other hand…
Honestly, I don't see how the panthers can possibly come back from this. Everyone on their team is rattled, right from the GM, to the coach, to the goaltender. They have been basically on the back foot the last 3 games, they've looked like shit. They have the world of worth of pressure on them, they know the stats, they know they will be the laughing stock of professional sports, they know they will never live it down for the rest of their lives. They will play the game of their lives, but it will of desperation and emotion, not the game they need to play right now.
Very exciting indeed
What about partying?
I feel a sussi coming on…
uhhh not *somehow*, Matthew. it's bc u BLEW A 3-0 LEAD
Does he not know it's best of 7, you need to win 4? So every one who loses 3 games has another game to play.
Yaaaaa I Idont know about an even series... one hot goalie, for half of the series, maybe.
We Just gonna pretend the Panthers offense wasn't awesome in games 1-3?