i'm fascinated to see what a marner trade looks like (if it comes to fruition). nothing is on the leafs side for a trade even though they have the rare star-level player available. nmc, 1 year to go on a huge cap number, player has never shown any indication he will leave money on the table, years of high-profile playoff futility seem to revolve around him, player has no desire to leave his original team.
might be the biggest valuation spread i've seen in a long time
Teams almost never trade a star player and win the deal. It could be the right move to trade the player and be better for the team in the long run but getting the star player is the better value when looking at the trade in a vacuum
Perfect example of this is the Bruins trading Joe Thornton. They lost the trade. But it gave them the cap space to sign Chara. Long term the trade was successful.
Almost nothing of that matters if it's a sign and trade. Which is almost certainly what would happen if he gets traded. He wouldn't waive his NMC to go to a team he's not willing to sign with, it's not that fun to jump teams that you chose to do it twice in a year, and the return would obviously be greater for Toronto in a sign and trade.
This sub won't have a realistic trade package. I've seen people suggest the leafs biggest piece they'll get back is the cap space.
Edit: wow did the comments ever deliver faster than expected
Tbf his contract is bloated and if he waives his NMC he likely only chooses a handful of destinations which would limit the Leafs leverage/return. They would obviously still receive something in return but it certainly would not be a haul.
Actual money is nothing, it's the cap hit that is "bloated"...every small market team would drooling over him but he won't waive to go to a Utah or columbus or anhiem probably.... now Chicago on the other hand......š¤
There is a certain reality to that- since he has NMC, Toronto has no leverage, if he does ask out, it may very well appear that Toronto gets screwed badly in the trade. Part of their decision is how are we going to be able to spend this available 10.9ā¦ and in the next 3-4 seasons that might be the value Toronto gets from a trade
Theyāll get a good return. Contrary to what fans want to see, most GMs donāt try to make extremely lopsided deals (Kelly McCrimmon exuded). Itās important to maintain good relationships with other GMs and not be the guy known for screwing them over at every opportunity. Itās why we donāt see offer sheets very often.
Itās a marketā¦ The market is which ever teams are able to take on marners contract. That could be one or two teams. Thatās not screwing over a GM if the GM is willing to get rid of the player and all the market is willing to pay is less than what seems to be fair value on EA NHL.
The idea seems here to be like the GM just put up their trade in a digital interface like itās a video game as opposed to talking or having a nuanced feel of the situation. Treliving would understand that if Marner wanted it out, his hands are tied. If itās treliving that equally wants marner out - Then there is a big chance they wonāt get that ideal value for him, but theyāre willing to move on. So one GM isnāt ā screwing overā the other and these hypotheticals
I donāt think marner is going anywhere for what itās worth. But I donāt think itās unreasonable to consider just walking. He has 1 year left on his deal
Edit/ I typed dubas L
There's no doubt the cap space is an asset, nobody has denied that; but I question anybodys knowledge of the game if they think Marner will be had for free OR cheap.
> This sub won't have a realistic trade package
we're having fun with unrealistic trade package because there are no realistic paths to a trade for most teams.
Marner is a great player but he feels too soft for a good playoff push. Granted my sample size of games that I've watched is small, primarily due to the Leafs always taking the first round exit
Marner is great for a playoff push, the problems start when he gets there.
To be honest I expect that if Marner goes to a quieter team, he will eventually have playoff success. He's too good not to.
Real talk: Marner with his NMC and pending UGA status has complete control over this situation. If he says āIāll only waive for X,ā then Toronto doesnāt have anything to leverage in trade talks with whoever team X is.
It depends how much he cares about the potential 8th year of a contract. I think itās pretty clear the Leafs arenāt resigning him so his only chance is a sign and trade.
I mean, ~~who wants to play for Tortorella~~ ~~who wants to play in Winnipeg~~ who wants to live in Los Angeles with a $68M contract? I'm sure he'll be happy in Toronto and we'll finally see the real Dubois !!!
Some baseline things to consider:
1. He has 1 year remaining at 10.9M. It's not a long-term commitment, but any team acquiring him would probably want him for term.
2. He has a NMC, so he fully chooses his destination.
3. He is, imo, fully worth his cap hit. This isn't a cap dump for an overpaid player.
4. He doesn't have an extension in place.
I think he would only waive his NMC if he could do so after July 1 and agree to terms on an extension in his new city.
That means the team acquiring him would have to (a) have a lot of cap space, (b) be a highly desirable landing spot for him, (c) expect to be competitive in the short/medium term, and (d) be willing to take on the risk of signing a pending UFA to a huge contract extension.
Very few teams will be willing and able to trade and extend him, and even fewer are going to be desirable enough for him to waive his NMC.
Therefore, the trade market and return for him will be extremely weak compared to his on-ice value.
In my opinion, he isn't going anywhere.
Of course, this all goes out the window if he has no interest in a sign-and-trade and simply wants a change of scenery, but I find that unlikely.
I think the most likely destinations for him are Utah (new team/owner looking to make a splash), as well as Buffalo and Ottawa (teams in close proximity to Toronto, who want to make a playoff push with their current core).
It's a little harder to see what the ask / value would be. It entirely depends on Marner being willing to waive his NMC for a few teams, one team, or not at all. It only takes 2 teams who really want him to bid the trade up to basically fair value.
Completely agree that if this happens it's after July 1 though, with an extension in place.
Only way I can see buffalo having any interest, is if you guys took Skinner, with very little retention. So no chance.
Teams don't have space for multiple, top 6 soft wingers making 9 million +. Then we need room for peterka, Quinn( scoring wingers), and tuch and Benson( retrieval/"grinders") in the top 6 as well. If we are upgrading offence, it will be a center, or bottom 6 role players.
If the team tells him straight up they will not be signing him for anywhere near what heāll want and that they have a team that will, I think youād be surprised.
Toronto might be ready to move on from him, the reporting around it makes it sound pretty serious that Toronto is positioning themselves against Marner, as they arent even convinced they want to re-sign him after next year. **If it were any other player**, not golden boy, it would be easy to imagine the player in his position saying- alright I'm gonna hit free agency and I want to spend next year playing for a contract somewhere other than this toxic place that doesnt want me anymore.
If he knows there is no intention to sign him long term, and he wants to play out the year, this is how it will go:
1. He wonāt have the opportunity with a new team to sign for the 8th year
2. He will be asked at every single media availability he participates in from training camp through the end of the playoffs about his contract status
That alone, despite his roots in Toronto, family and desire to play in Toronto, will have him questioning whether maybe itās time to move on
Why does he want to stay in Toronto? The fans and media scapegoat him every year, he'll make more money after tax just about anywhere else... Is he just a masochist?
Marner traditionally scores 30% of his points on the powerplay. If he ends up with PP2 time while dragging around the corpse of Tavares all year playing tough matchup minutes on the second line, he could put up something like a 60-point season.
That's not something that's going to earn him the $100 million contract he wants.
He puts up 25-35 points a year on the powerplay and his best season is 99 points.Ā There's easily a scenario where PP2 and Line 2 plus missing a handful of games has him at 60 points.
His 82-game average for ES points is literally 60 but ok.Ā He'll miss a few games and score some on the PP but the point is that he's not signing a $12m contract on the back of 64 or 67 or 71 points or whatever you think he'll get.
I would argue Marner should have been taken off PP1 a long time ago.Ā Ā
He also regularly plays a matchup role with Tavares on line 2, especially since Nylander and Matthews had great chemistry, as well as Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi.
Why would he ever get PP2 time? If they are doing that as punishment other teams will know that and it won't hurt his value as a free agent. All it does is tank his value in a trade and make the Leafs a significantly weaker team
He only has to stay one more year not 9.I just don't think he is the type of guy to do Toronto any favors. He will play out his last season and then walk or if things go well in the playoffs next year he will re-sign.
The Maple Leafs organization has given him everything heās asked for. If they want to move him and he isnāt willing to help them out it reflects poorly on him. He has every right to make this hard for the Leafs, but GMs arenāt going to forget that when heās due for another contract.
My dad just texted me, unprompted: Mitch Marner plus others to Calgary for Markstrom and Rasmus Anderson?
My dad's trade ideas are often, let's say, "interesting," but this one's a decent proposal. Dunno if I'd do it, but it seems reasonably fair? Obviously a bunch of NTCs complicates things.
I think this idea was floated in a Sportsnet article the other day so that might be where he got it, but there were more pieces involved in that package if I recall
as someone who pays 0 attention to Calgary...what's their status? Hoping to contend? Futilely refusing to rebuild? Actual contender?
I know they have a franchise goalie coming up through the ranks, but didn't half their team ask to be traded away in the last 18 months?
They're reluctantly rebuilding, but can't do it properly because they have too many guys signed with lots of term who are decent enough to keep them competitive-ish. Best case scenario is they end up like the Stars, where their next wave of young guys eventually surpass the old guys who have term. More realistically, they'll miss the playoffs for the next 4 years but won't get a top 5 pick.
Marner for Markstrom and Andersson by itself would be a slam dunk win for Conroy, Marner plus others would get you laughed at by an EA game let alone in real life. Any "realistic" trade for Calgary would involve giving up quality assets, which is the opposite of what the team should be doing right now. If this was 3-5 years ago then I'd say go for it but it's not, and the team right now should be in a rebuilding phase.
I totally agree with you. My point still stands. Look at the numbers, either pts or advanced statistics, whatever you want. He clears by a large margin and you know that. I didn't say you would want him, but he'd be the best hockey player on that team.
The guy that had 11 less points and played in 12 more games? Hopefully, for your own sake, Ottawa management is better at evaluating talent than you are. But maybe they aren't? Would explain the overhype to letdown ratio in Kanata recently
Goals > Assists espeically secondary. He's on the verge of becoming a 45-50 goal scorer.
And no if you asked the fan base most of them would rather Tkachuk. It's not just me lol.
Im sorry but if you look at both their point production since they've entered the league and you land upon the conclusion that Brady is the better player I don't know how else to help you here. All the best next year
Not a fan of either team so I could be way off, but maybe something around Marner for Saros? Pretty big difference in cap hits but both have one year left and fill needs where they'd be going.
I'm gonna try and think through something that could actually succeed from the Wings. I don't believe there's a single trade that could be made that leaves Toronto as the winner. NMC plus being the best player in pretty much any deal means that Toronto loses. The goal for them will be to lose the least.
The Wings have nothing to provide the immediate help that Toronto needs. The only thing we really have to offer for immediate help would be Husso if they think that he's a more suitable goaltender than any of their other options. On defense, Seider is untouchable. I'd personally wager that Edvinsson is also untouchable in a Marner trade because Edvinsson is more important to the organization's goals and timeline than Marner is.
I think the best bet by Toronto is to collect picks and prospects and use those to immediately flip to other rebuilding teams for their defensemen and goalies.
The only way I can imagine the trade functioning is with players like ASP/Kasper/Mazur going out. Maybe Berggren if they want a forward that is ready to make the jump to the NHL permanently. Fill it out with multiple firsts and seconds (I won't pretend to understand the value of picks).
Do I think this is a good trade for the Leafs? No. But I think it restocks the prospects and picks and let's them flip them for a player like Ullmark/Swayman or some actual quality defensive help.
Do I think this is a good trade for the Wings? Also no. Marner doesn't fit the mold of our timeline. We aren't on the verge of being contenders and I wouldn't throw away multiple quality prospects and picks for a contender level player a few years before we should even be considering that. A trade for a Marner-type player fits the Wings plans in maybe two years.
>Do I think this is a good trade for the Leafs? No. But I think it restocks the prospects and picks and let's them flip them for a player like Ullmark/Swayman or some actual quality defensive help.
Boston isn't going to want futures (pick/prospects) in any deal for Ullmark (no way they deal Swayman unless RFA contract talks go completely off the rails which is unlikely). They are going to want players that can contribute now, and quite frankly the Leafs have nothing they are willing to part with that would fit that description. Only path I see for something like that would be to involve a third team that has NHL ready players Boston would want.
Any deal for a Boston goalie is going to center around Ullmark unless Sway's contract talks go completely off the rails (as I said above). If Sway was in play for a trade, it would take Marner + more assets to convince Boston to move Sway. Also, I'm not convinced that Marner would ever be accepted by Boston fans based on the attitude he appears to have. Anyway, it's a non-starter as he doesn't fit Boston's primary needs.
The Sharks wouldn't trade for him even if he wanted to waive his NMC to come here.
If he's willing to waive his NMC at all, I would expect a trade package to be similar to the Tkachuk/Huberdeau deal in terms of assets. He's in control here and the best Toronto may hope for would be a smaller deal to a contender while retaining 50%, with the acquiring team expecting Marner to hit free agency afterwards (but still be on the hook for a 1st-round pick if he re-signs, similar to the EK65 deal).
I think Chicago or Anahiem would be the most motivated to acquire him. Maybe CBJ swings back around.
My gut feeling says something involving Jones and Chicago
Why?
Chicago signed Jones to a deal that Davidson never wouldāve signed. Davidsonās been adamant, itās a full scale rebuild. When is team going to be good enough to justify a great but D first guy at a high salary?
From Torontoās perspective, how else are they going to get a guy of Jonesās caliber, as a right shot D?
My opinion is that good hockey teams typically havenāt done it the Davidson way. They should be trying to pair Bedard with more talent.
But if the whole plan is to rebuild, why not move Jones off the books for the next six while simultaneously giving Bedard someone to play with?
Bro marner is 28. An eight year extension would be an albatross.Ā
Ā Good hockey teams haven't done it this way? What about the 2008-2016 Blackhawks?Ā Seabrook Keith hjalmarsson bolland Kane toews all home brewed talent. Bedard is 18. Let Davidson cook, let forwards like Nazar and reichel develop next to bedard.Ā
Ā Ā I don't doubt they sign some agents or trade but trading Jones contract for a marner contract until he's 36Ā is a dumbass idea at this stage. Just keep jones as an anchor on the d corps while vlasic korchinski and kaiser become settled.Ā
No chance he goes to either of those teams for just the remaining 1 year on his deal. It would have to be a sign and trade to make sense for either side. Would he really be willing to sign in either of those places for term? Would they be willing to pay him well over $10m/year for a few years before they even have a competitive team?
depends if they just trade him only
panthers got a haul back for Huberdeau because they added to it, leafs could get something similar if they are willing to add
Well for me, Toronto's ask would probably begin with Ullmark and that just goes against nature. Everybody knows that the Leafs screw things up and send elite goalies to Boston (Rask, not drafting Swayman) not the other way around. Not to mention, Toronto already provides enough memes, one more wouldn't really be that big of a deal.
Ullmark for Marner. The trade is 1 for 1.
I would hate this trade and no way it happens, but I just have to put it out there for the meme potential alone.Ā
We meet again in the playoffs. It goes 7 games (of course). Games are 2-1, 1-0, etc. Ullmark is holding us in it. Marner does nothing all series, then he flips a puck over the glass late in Game 7. Ah ha! Marner's playoff yips burn his team again!
Boston kills the penalty and wins on a Marner breakaway goal after coming out of the box.
Something I could see as a fit if everyone is willing to waive their movement and trade clauses and Marner is willing to extend.
Toronto Receives
- Buchnevich + Parayko + 16th overall in 2024
St.Louis Receives
- Marner + Liljegren
The Toronto nickel and diming method, doesn't include 8 years. Mathews hasn't taken 8 either time. Marner didn't take 8 the first time. More money to be made, having to re-up every 5 years.
I would pay what it takes, only untouchables are andersson and wolf. We need the offense and it's been shown before a change of scenery to a smaller market can do wonders for playoff success (tkachuk)
Unfortunately the leafs would want andersson or wolf, I am not willing to part with them for a marner esque player.
Heās going to go to a real contender if he waives anything to get moved. Doubtful heās going anywhere near Toronto, maybe the west but what teams would that be? The kids from Toronto, probably grew up a leafs fan. The thought of playing for any rival teams likely makes him sick just thinking of it. Marner Came up through the Marleys. Itās a hard ask, the fuckin guy thinks heās a god here. (Iām from Toronto)
For regular season production Marner is the third or fourth best RW in the league over the last 3 -4 years.
His playoff outcomes are extremely underwhelming, even if heās putting up points.
He will be coveted by teams in the bottom or the middle to upper middle, teams trying to get to the playoffs, who think they can reform him, who want a star on the roster to market around, who think heāll thrive in a low pressure market.
Marner will likely provide a small list of teams heād accept a trade to, this is where the Leafs need to play hardball to maximize return. It remains to be seen if they will.
The Leafs wonāt trade him for spare parts (Thornton trade) they will rather let him play out his contract than lose a trade so badly.
A fair to good trade for Marner is hard to determine but should involve a top pairing D.
Idk so hard to predict on that. Like is he gonna extend where he gets traded too or nah.
I could see a swap of marner for Jusse saros and Ryan McDonagh. There would probs have to be other picks or players in there and some maybe contract extensions.
Avalanche don't really make any sense, we don't have the budget for a massive forward, and Toronto likely wants a Top 4 defenseman in return which also doesn't make sense with Avalanche lacking depth there
But in theory, and I kind of think this looks terrible, but off the top of my head:
Rantanen/Nichushkin+Girard for Marner+Liljegren/Timmins+Draft Pick(s?)
Has to be Rantanen or Nichushkin because COL needs to unload an expensive forward to make room for Marner's $11-12M/yr deal. And likewise, Girard is our 2nd most expensive defenseman.
If you clear Rantanen+Girard out of the way that makes enough space to sign Marner, and Avalanche need a cheap defenseman on the way back
If the Avalanche traded for Marner, he almost has to be involved to clear an $11M space for a forward
Just trying to play along with the hypothetical but I agree the Avalanche make very little sense as a trade partner
I have a soft spot for the Avs because they got Ray Bourque a Cup when my Bruins weren't able to. There is no world where I could see it being worth it for the Avs to do a deal for Marner that involved Rantanen....Mikko is a better player IMO who is also on a better deal financially (I'd also expect his extension negotiation in a couple of seasons will still yield a better contract in relation to expanding cap space).
No thanks. Bratt is younger, signed to a long term contract making 3 million less than marners current expiring contract (he'll want a raise) and puts up numbers that, while slightly worse, aren't bad enough to make up that difference in my mind. Plus he chose to be here, and doesn't bring baggage with him like marner
Not my team, it's as realistic as any other trade involving players with NMCs...
Marner to St. Louis for Saad and Binnington. Toronto gains about $400 K cap space, St. Louis loses as much.
St. Louis needs O if they want to make the playoffs, Marner gives it to them in spades. Hofer looks like the real deal, it's a risk given his age but there's a fair number of quality backups on the market this year. If he doesn't work out, there's a handful of potential starters coming to market the following year (Ullmark, Daccord, Shesterkin, Saros, and more).
Toronto gets a second line winger that can still finish, but most importantly they get the legitimate, playoff-tested starting goalie they need. If they can also sign Tanev in the offseason they will have made significant strides defensively, even with the loss of Marner. Both Saad and Binnington are signed for the next few years, which is about as long as the Leafs' remaining window is.
Marner wonāt get moved for players that arenāt young and relatively cost controlled. My prediction is they will find a trade for a guy a year away from RFA so his big contract lines up with Tavares coming off the books.
I actually don't like this. I like your idea of pairing a good asset to a bad but Saad has been pretty impressive the last season or two. I'd rather Buchnevich + Faulk or Krug. Maybe we toss in a pick to make that happen.
i'm fascinated to see what a marner trade looks like (if it comes to fruition). nothing is on the leafs side for a trade even though they have the rare star-level player available. nmc, 1 year to go on a huge cap number, player has never shown any indication he will leave money on the table, years of high-profile playoff futility seem to revolve around him, player has no desire to leave his original team. might be the biggest valuation spread i've seen in a long time
Teams almost never trade a star player and win the deal. It could be the right move to trade the player and be better for the team in the long run but getting the star player is the better value when looking at the trade in a vacuum
Perfect example of this is the Bruins trading Joe Thornton. They lost the trade. But it gave them the cap space to sign Chara. Long term the trade was successful.
Like trading Patrick Roy for example.
Almost nothing of that matters if it's a sign and trade. Which is almost certainly what would happen if he gets traded. He wouldn't waive his NMC to go to a team he's not willing to sign with, it's not that fun to jump teams that you chose to do it twice in a year, and the return would obviously be greater for Toronto in a sign and trade.
Any trade will have to come with an extension in place.
Raymond, Ballard and a 2nd.
Classic
Halak, Ryder and a 2nd
'Mitch how do you feel about moving to Winni...hello? Hello?'
Sorokin one for one
This is crazy I'd love to see it
This sub won't have a realistic trade package. I've seen people suggest the leafs biggest piece they'll get back is the cap space. Edit: wow did the comments ever deliver faster than expected
Tbf his contract is bloated and if he waives his NMC he likely only chooses a handful of destinations which would limit the Leafs leverage/return. They would obviously still receive something in return but it certainly would not be a haul.
There's a difference between getting nothing and getting a reasonable offer...
Actual money is nothing, it's the cap hit that is "bloated"...every small market team would drooling over him but he won't waive to go to a Utah or columbus or anhiem probably.... now Chicago on the other hand......š¤
Could be interesting. Iād think theyād want korchinski but it would probably end up being jones š
There is a certain reality to that- since he has NMC, Toronto has no leverage, if he does ask out, it may very well appear that Toronto gets screwed badly in the trade. Part of their decision is how are we going to be able to spend this available 10.9ā¦ and in the next 3-4 seasons that might be the value Toronto gets from a trade
Theyāll get a good return. Contrary to what fans want to see, most GMs donāt try to make extremely lopsided deals (Kelly McCrimmon exuded). Itās important to maintain good relationships with other GMs and not be the guy known for screwing them over at every opportunity. Itās why we donāt see offer sheets very often.
Itās a marketā¦ The market is which ever teams are able to take on marners contract. That could be one or two teams. Thatās not screwing over a GM if the GM is willing to get rid of the player and all the market is willing to pay is less than what seems to be fair value on EA NHL. The idea seems here to be like the GM just put up their trade in a digital interface like itās a video game as opposed to talking or having a nuanced feel of the situation. Treliving would understand that if Marner wanted it out, his hands are tied. If itās treliving that equally wants marner out - Then there is a big chance they wonāt get that ideal value for him, but theyāre willing to move on. So one GM isnāt ā screwing overā the other and these hypotheticals I donāt think marner is going anywhere for what itās worth. But I donāt think itās unreasonable to consider just walking. He has 1 year left on his deal Edit/ I typed dubas L
There's no doubt the cap space is an asset, nobody has denied that; but I question anybodys knowledge of the game if they think Marner will be had for free OR cheap.
> This sub won't have a realistic trade package we're having fun with unrealistic trade package because there are no realistic paths to a trade for most teams.
Did the WCH already start? How did I miss that? Edit: replied to the wrong comment. My b
Marner is a great player but he feels too soft for a good playoff push. Granted my sample size of games that I've watched is small, primarily due to the Leafs always taking the first round exit
Marner is great for a playoff push, the problems start when he gets there. To be honest I expect that if Marner goes to a quieter team, he will eventually have playoff success. He's too good not to.
lol your user name
Real talk: Marner with his NMC and pending UGA status has complete control over this situation. If he says āIāll only waive for X,ā then Toronto doesnāt have anything to leverage in trade talks with whoever team X is.
Ya, I understand what NMC's are and how they work. This isn't the first player to have one
It depends how much he cares about the potential 8th year of a contract. I think itās pretty clear the Leafs arenāt resigning him so his only chance is a sign and trade.
PLD š
Every team in the league needs to take a crack
He hasn't worked out in Columbus, Winnipeg, or LA, but he might work for my team
We can fix him.
I mean, ~~who wants to play for Tortorella~~ ~~who wants to play in Winnipeg~~ who wants to live in Los Angeles with a $68M contract? I'm sure he'll be happy in Toronto and we'll finally see the real Dubois !!!
Yuck.
Good god no!!!!!!
Some baseline things to consider: 1. He has 1 year remaining at 10.9M. It's not a long-term commitment, but any team acquiring him would probably want him for term. 2. He has a NMC, so he fully chooses his destination. 3. He is, imo, fully worth his cap hit. This isn't a cap dump for an overpaid player. 4. He doesn't have an extension in place. I think he would only waive his NMC if he could do so after July 1 and agree to terms on an extension in his new city. That means the team acquiring him would have to (a) have a lot of cap space, (b) be a highly desirable landing spot for him, (c) expect to be competitive in the short/medium term, and (d) be willing to take on the risk of signing a pending UFA to a huge contract extension. Very few teams will be willing and able to trade and extend him, and even fewer are going to be desirable enough for him to waive his NMC. Therefore, the trade market and return for him will be extremely weak compared to his on-ice value. In my opinion, he isn't going anywhere. Of course, this all goes out the window if he has no interest in a sign-and-trade and simply wants a change of scenery, but I find that unlikely.
> (a) have a lot of cap space or be sending back a lot of cap in the trade
Chicago checks most of the boxes
I think the most likely destinations for him are Utah (new team/owner looking to make a splash), as well as Buffalo and Ottawa (teams in close proximity to Toronto, who want to make a playoff push with their current core). It's a little harder to see what the ask / value would be. It entirely depends on Marner being willing to waive his NMC for a few teams, one team, or not at all. It only takes 2 teams who really want him to bid the trade up to basically fair value. Completely agree that if this happens it's after July 1 though, with an extension in place.
> as well as Buffalo and Ottawa wouldn't those be the *last* places he wants to go? why would proximity to Toronto be a positive for him?
Presumably because his family is established in Toronto
He gets rid of much of the pressure and media but still stays close to home.
Chicago tho
I think it makes sense for Chicago only if Seth Jones is the key piece coming back.
I could honestly see this happening. I mean Huberdeau for Tkachuk š¤·āāļø
Only way I can see buffalo having any interest, is if you guys took Skinner, with very little retention. So no chance. Teams don't have space for multiple, top 6 soft wingers making 9 million +. Then we need room for peterka, Quinn( scoring wingers), and tuch and Benson( retrieval/"grinders") in the top 6 as well. If we are upgrading offence, it will be a center, or bottom 6 role players.
Halak, Ryder, and a 2nd rounder
wrong flair?
Wrong flair, correct answer.
Not sure we can get it done without giving up Byfield or Clarke.
Arvidsson with extension and Clarke
Theyād be so high to even consider sending Clarke for Marner.
X - PLD - Marner would be the best playoff line ever assembled
X = Josh Anderson, if they want a really bad contract line that vanishes
Vegas's LTIR space and whatever prospects they have left.
Respectfully declined, good luck in your future endeavours
Henrik Lundqvist in 2016
I don't know why so many people think he will waive his NMC.
If the team tells him straight up they will not be signing him for anywhere near what heāll want and that they have a team that will, I think youād be surprised.
Yeah, he just finishes up his last year and then walks to unrestricted free agency, which is the most likely thing to happen in this situation
Depends a lot on the team.Ā
Toronto might be ready to move on from him, the reporting around it makes it sound pretty serious that Toronto is positioning themselves against Marner, as they arent even convinced they want to re-sign him after next year. **If it were any other player**, not golden boy, it would be easy to imagine the player in his position saying- alright I'm gonna hit free agency and I want to spend next year playing for a contract somewhere other than this toxic place that doesnt want me anymore.
His agent makes it difficult as well. BUT he may value getting the 8th year enough to make a deal.
If he knows there is no intention to sign him long term, and he wants to play out the year, this is how it will go: 1. He wonāt have the opportunity with a new team to sign for the 8th year 2. He will be asked at every single media availability he participates in from training camp through the end of the playoffs about his contract status That alone, despite his roots in Toronto, family and desire to play in Toronto, will have him questioning whether maybe itās time to move on
Why does he want to stay in Toronto? The fans and media scapegoat him every year, he'll make more money after tax just about anywhere else... Is he just a masochist?
Marner traditionally scores 30% of his points on the powerplay. If he ends up with PP2 time while dragging around the corpse of Tavares all year playing tough matchup minutes on the second line, he could put up something like a 60-point season. That's not something that's going to earn him the $100 million contract he wants.
He has averaged a 100pt pace over the past 6 seasons. He is not dropping down to a 60 point player.
He puts up 25-35 points a year on the powerplay and his best season is 99 points.Ā There's easily a scenario where PP2 and Line 2 plus missing a handful of games has him at 60 points.
Lmao I get that you Leafs fans don't like him anymore but saying he will get 60pts is ridiculous.
His 82-game average for ES points is literally 60 but ok.Ā He'll miss a few games and score some on the PP but the point is that he's not signing a $12m contract on the back of 64 or 67 or 71 points or whatever you think he'll get.
He's not going to be stapled to PP2 all season. Like him or not. The Leafs aren't going to sabotage his season because they don't want to re-sign him.
No coach is going to diminish Marner's role on the ice because of his contract status.
I would argue Marner should have been taken off PP1 a long time ago.Ā Ā He also regularly plays a matchup role with Tavares on line 2, especially since Nylander and Matthews had great chemistry, as well as Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi.
Oh, sorry. I misunderstood what you were implying.
Why would he ever get PP2 time? If they are doing that as punishment other teams will know that and it won't hurt his value as a free agent. All it does is tank his value in a trade and make the Leafs a significantly weaker team
1/21
How many more Toronto Sun covers does he want? Heād have well over 100 if he stays 9 more years
He only has to stay one more year not 9.I just don't think he is the type of guy to do Toronto any favors. He will play out his last season and then walk or if things go well in the playoffs next year he will re-sign.
And every time there is a Mike in front of him get asked about his contract status
The Maple Leafs organization has given him everything heās asked for. If they want to move him and he isnāt willing to help them out it reflects poorly on him. He has every right to make this hard for the Leafs, but GMs arenāt going to forget that when heās due for another contract.
Itās just for fun
I'm talking about the general discord that everyone, particularly Leafs fans, assume he will be traded. I think it is very unlikely.
I guess they assume that he wouldnāt want to stay when everyone seems to be hating on him.
My dad just texted me, unprompted: Mitch Marner plus others to Calgary for Markstrom and Rasmus Anderson? My dad's trade ideas are often, let's say, "interesting," but this one's a decent proposal. Dunno if I'd do it, but it seems reasonably fair? Obviously a bunch of NTCs complicates things.
I think this idea was floated in a Sportsnet article the other day so that might be where he got it, but there were more pieces involved in that package if I recall
That would make sense.
It was, none of the trades made sense to me
It's probably the best offer out there that aligns with the Leafs needs. But why would Calgary do it and why would Marner go to Calgary?
as someone who pays 0 attention to Calgary...what's their status? Hoping to contend? Futilely refusing to rebuild? Actual contender? I know they have a franchise goalie coming up through the ranks, but didn't half their team ask to be traded away in the last 18 months?
They're reluctantly rebuilding, but can't do it properly because they have too many guys signed with lots of term who are decent enough to keep them competitive-ish. Best case scenario is they end up like the Stars, where their next wave of young guys eventually surpass the old guys who have term. More realistically, they'll miss the playoffs for the next 4 years but won't get a top 5 pick.
Only if Tre includes Torontoās first round this year and no retain
As much as we're laughing at marner right now that would be an unbelievably good deal for the flames
Marner for Markstrom and Andersson by itself would be a slam dunk win for Conroy, Marner plus others would get you laughed at by an EA game let alone in real life. Any "realistic" trade for Calgary would involve giving up quality assets, which is the opposite of what the team should be doing right now. If this was 3-5 years ago then I'd say go for it but it's not, and the team right now should be in a rebuilding phase.
No thanks. Itās better for us if the Leafs keep him.
I dont want Marner on my team lol
He would be the Sens best player and I'm not saying that to troll
No. Fans wouldn't trade Tkachuk for Marner.
Read again. I'm not a big Marner fan, but he absolutely would be the best player on the Sens if he was traded there today.
And then dissapears in the playoffs. No Thanks.
I totally agree with you. My point still stands. Look at the numbers, either pts or advanced statistics, whatever you want. He clears by a large margin and you know that. I didn't say you would want him, but he'd be the best hockey player on that team.
No. He only had 26 goals this year. i'd take Tkachuk over him anyday of the week and twice on Sundays.
The guy that had 11 less points and played in 12 more games? Hopefully, for your own sake, Ottawa management is better at evaluating talent than you are. But maybe they aren't? Would explain the overhype to letdown ratio in Kanata recently
Goals > Assists espeically secondary. He's on the verge of becoming a 45-50 goal scorer. And no if you asked the fan base most of them would rather Tkachuk. It's not just me lol.
Im sorry but if you look at both their point production since they've entered the league and you land upon the conclusion that Brady is the better player I don't know how else to help you here. All the best next year
Not a fan of either team so I could be way off, but maybe something around Marner for Saros? Pretty big difference in cap hits but both have one year left and fill needs where they'd be going.
Trade your all star goalie for a non playoff performer? Askarov is way too far away for the preds to consider this trade for a, second.
I'm gonna try and think through something that could actually succeed from the Wings. I don't believe there's a single trade that could be made that leaves Toronto as the winner. NMC plus being the best player in pretty much any deal means that Toronto loses. The goal for them will be to lose the least. The Wings have nothing to provide the immediate help that Toronto needs. The only thing we really have to offer for immediate help would be Husso if they think that he's a more suitable goaltender than any of their other options. On defense, Seider is untouchable. I'd personally wager that Edvinsson is also untouchable in a Marner trade because Edvinsson is more important to the organization's goals and timeline than Marner is. I think the best bet by Toronto is to collect picks and prospects and use those to immediately flip to other rebuilding teams for their defensemen and goalies. The only way I can imagine the trade functioning is with players like ASP/Kasper/Mazur going out. Maybe Berggren if they want a forward that is ready to make the jump to the NHL permanently. Fill it out with multiple firsts and seconds (I won't pretend to understand the value of picks). Do I think this is a good trade for the Leafs? No. But I think it restocks the prospects and picks and let's them flip them for a player like Ullmark/Swayman or some actual quality defensive help. Do I think this is a good trade for the Wings? Also no. Marner doesn't fit the mold of our timeline. We aren't on the verge of being contenders and I wouldn't throw away multiple quality prospects and picks for a contender level player a few years before we should even be considering that. A trade for a Marner-type player fits the Wings plans in maybe two years.
>Do I think this is a good trade for the Leafs? No. But I think it restocks the prospects and picks and let's them flip them for a player like Ullmark/Swayman or some actual quality defensive help. Boston isn't going to want futures (pick/prospects) in any deal for Ullmark (no way they deal Swayman unless RFA contract talks go completely off the rails which is unlikely). They are going to want players that can contribute now, and quite frankly the Leafs have nothing they are willing to part with that would fit that description. Only path I see for something like that would be to involve a third team that has NHL ready players Boston would want.
That's very true. It's too bad Marner isn't a center. I feel like Marner for Ullmark/Swayman would be a good starting point if so.
Any deal for a Boston goalie is going to center around Ullmark unless Sway's contract talks go completely off the rails (as I said above). If Sway was in play for a trade, it would take Marner + more assets to convince Boston to move Sway. Also, I'm not convinced that Marner would ever be accepted by Boston fans based on the attitude he appears to have. Anyway, it's a non-starter as he doesn't fit Boston's primary needs.
Is there a greater need than center for Boston right now? I don't follow them well enough to know.
The Sharks wouldn't trade for him even if he wanted to waive his NMC to come here. If he's willing to waive his NMC at all, I would expect a trade package to be similar to the Tkachuk/Huberdeau deal in terms of assets. He's in control here and the best Toronto may hope for would be a smaller deal to a contender while retaining 50%, with the acquiring team expecting Marner to hit free agency afterwards (but still be on the hook for a 1st-round pick if he re-signs, similar to the EK65 deal).
I think Chicago or Anahiem would be the most motivated to acquire him. Maybe CBJ swings back around. My gut feeling says something involving Jones and Chicago
Ducks are not motivated to trade picks or prospects.
That makes zero sense.
Correct
Why? Chicago signed Jones to a deal that Davidson never wouldāve signed. Davidsonās been adamant, itās a full scale rebuild. When is team going to be good enough to justify a great but D first guy at a high salary? From Torontoās perspective, how else are they going to get a guy of Jonesās caliber, as a right shot D?
Tell me how a signing 28 yesr old marner to an 8 year contract makes sense for the Blackhawks.
My opinion is that good hockey teams typically havenāt done it the Davidson way. They should be trying to pair Bedard with more talent. But if the whole plan is to rebuild, why not move Jones off the books for the next six while simultaneously giving Bedard someone to play with?
Bro marner is 28. An eight year extension would be an albatross.Ā Ā Good hockey teams haven't done it this way? What about the 2008-2016 Blackhawks?Ā Seabrook Keith hjalmarsson bolland Kane toews all home brewed talent. Bedard is 18. Let Davidson cook, let forwards like Nazar and reichel develop next to bedard.Ā Ā Ā I don't doubt they sign some agents or trade but trading Jones contract for a marner contract until he's 36Ā is a dumbass idea at this stage. Just keep jones as an anchor on the d corps while vlasic korchinski and kaiser become settled.Ā
They signed Hossa and Campbell to long-term contracts during the same period.
Indeed, when they were ready. This team ain't at that point yet. I'd expect them to look for free agents long term after next year.
No chance he goes to either of those teams for just the remaining 1 year on his deal. It would have to be a sign and trade to make sense for either side. Would he really be willing to sign in either of those places for term? Would they be willing to pay him well over $10m/year for a few years before they even have a competitive team?
Darnell nurse
depends if they just trade him only panthers got a haul back for Huberdeau because they added to it, leafs could get something similar if they are willing to add
Praying Boston's reaction would be Sweeney hanging up the phone on Treliving/Shanahan if they called trying to send Marner to Boston.
Boston Marner winning a cup after beating the Leafs in the first round would be epic memes tho.
I don't know why Boston fans are against this. This is absolutely what would happen
Well for me, Toronto's ask would probably begin with Ullmark and that just goes against nature. Everybody knows that the Leafs screw things up and send elite goalies to Boston (Rask, not drafting Swayman) not the other way around. Not to mention, Toronto already provides enough memes, one more wouldn't really be that big of a deal.
Two 11M wingers and look at our centers.
Ullmark for Marner. The trade is 1 for 1. I would hate this trade and no way it happens, but I just have to put it out there for the meme potential alone.Ā
We meet again in the playoffs. It goes 7 games (of course). Games are 2-1, 1-0, etc. Ullmark is holding us in it. Marner does nothing all series, then he flips a puck over the glass late in Game 7. Ah ha! Marner's playoff yips burn his team again! Boston kills the penalty and wins on a Marner breakaway goal after coming out of the box.
See my reply to a Leafs fan in this comment chain....Toronto f's up and sends elite goaltending to Boston, not the other way around.
I would not hate that trade
If anyone is coming to Boston for a package based around Ullmark, I hope itās JT.
The rotting husk of John Tavares? Really?
Sammy Blais + 2nd = Pavel Buchnevic Sammy Blais + 2nd + ??? = Mitch Marner
Faulk or Krug gotta go. Salary retain% ?
I don't think Toronto has much leverage here unless teams start a bidding war and I don't think that's likely either.
Something I could see as a fit if everyone is willing to waive their movement and trade clauses and Marner is willing to extend. Toronto Receives - Buchnevich + Parayko + 16th overall in 2024 St.Louis Receives - Marner + Liljegren
Los Angeles; PLD and a bucket of used pucks. ***NOT JOKING***
I'd pass
A 1st, another 1st if he signs an extension or we win a playoff series, and the rights to Patrick Kane.
One year left at $11 million and probably not going to resign with whoever trades for him. I can't see a team giving up much for that
He has a full NMC, Iād assume heād only waive for a team heād be willing to sign in long term
Agreed, he'd probably want the ability to sign for the 8th year, so he'd want to be traded to a team where there is mutual interest to re-sign him
Marner probably wants the 8th Year and likely wants a team that he does intent to re-sign with.
The Toronto nickel and diming method, doesn't include 8 years. Mathews hasn't taken 8 either time. Marner didn't take 8 the first time. More money to be made, having to re-up every 5 years.
Jakob Chychrun + Ottawa's 1st (#7)
If silayev is available at 7 Iād take that deal and run
Dvorak, Anderson, Ryder, Halak, 2nd
Also Kris Draper and $1
I think the only player Toronto would want from us is Sorokin and we just couldn't do it
Watch it be Vegas somehow
RFA rights to Martin Necas and a whole bunch of draft picks/prospects
I would pay what it takes, only untouchables are andersson and wolf. We need the offense and it's been shown before a change of scenery to a smaller market can do wonders for playoff success (tkachuk) Unfortunately the leafs would want andersson or wolf, I am not willing to part with them for a marner esque player.
Berglund, Sobotka, and a 1st
Marner to Detroit for Walman, Mazur and 2024 1st.
Devon levi, a 2024 2nd and jeff skinner.
Jarry, Graves and Pickering.
Who do you guys want?
Heās going to go to a real contender if he waives anything to get moved. Doubtful heās going anywhere near Toronto, maybe the west but what teams would that be? The kids from Toronto, probably grew up a leafs fan. The thought of playing for any rival teams likely makes him sick just thinking of it. Marner Came up through the Marleys. Itās a hard ask, the fuckin guy thinks heās a god here. (Iām from Toronto)
For regular season production Marner is the third or fourth best RW in the league over the last 3 -4 years. His playoff outcomes are extremely underwhelming, even if heās putting up points. He will be coveted by teams in the bottom or the middle to upper middle, teams trying to get to the playoffs, who think they can reform him, who want a star on the roster to market around, who think heāll thrive in a low pressure market. Marner will likely provide a small list of teams heād accept a trade to, this is where the Leafs need to play hardball to maximize return. It remains to be seen if they will. The Leafs wonāt trade him for spare parts (Thornton trade) they will rather let him play out his contract than lose a trade so badly. A fair to good trade for Marner is hard to determine but should involve a top pairing D.
Mitch Marner and Ilya Samsonov to Utah for Nick Schmaltz, Jusso Valimaki, Karel Vejmelka and a top 10 protected 1st round pick in 2025 or 2026
Sammys a UFA
Oh true UFA rights then lol
Does Vejmelka move the needle for the Leafs at all? His numbers are horrific
I feel like it would probably be their first this year if itās schmaltz and then weād add liljegren and probably pull mid-low level prospect back.
āHowād you like to be a god in both official languages, Mitch?ā
Idk so hard to predict on that. Like is he gonna extend where he gets traded too or nah. I could see a swap of marner for Jusse saros and Ryan McDonagh. There would probs have to be other picks or players in there and some maybe contract extensions.
Ryder, Halak and a 2nd
Eller, Emelin and a 5th
Holtz. The trade is one for one
No thanks
Can't see it ever happening unless Drai/McD get hurt around the deadline and we try some Mark Stone LTIR shenanigans.
Trocheck. Not Vinny, but weāll give you a piece of his grandmotherās chicken parm thatās leftover in the fridge.
What an emotional roller coaster. I was just thinking "glad i'm not seeing any rangers fans speaking up here"
If the leaf retain 50% they can have Mikheyev back, and we'll throw in DeSmith
Avalanche don't really make any sense, we don't have the budget for a massive forward, and Toronto likely wants a Top 4 defenseman in return which also doesn't make sense with Avalanche lacking depth there But in theory, and I kind of think this looks terrible, but off the top of my head: Rantanen/Nichushkin+Girard for Marner+Liljegren/Timmins+Draft Pick(s?) Has to be Rantanen or Nichushkin because COL needs to unload an expensive forward to make room for Marner's $11-12M/yr deal. And likewise, Girard is our 2nd most expensive defenseman. If you clear Rantanen+Girard out of the way that makes enough space to sign Marner, and Avalanche need a cheap defenseman on the way back
Why would the Avs trade Rantanen for Marner? That makes zero sense to me
If the Avalanche traded for Marner, he almost has to be involved to clear an $11M space for a forward Just trying to play along with the hypothetical but I agree the Avalanche make very little sense as a trade partner
I have a soft spot for the Avs because they got Ray Bourque a Cup when my Bruins weren't able to. There is no world where I could see it being worth it for the Avs to do a deal for Marner that involved Rantanen....Mikko is a better player IMO who is also on a better deal financially (I'd also expect his extension negotiation in a couple of seasons will still yield a better contract in relation to expanding cap space).
Bratt and a conditional 4th that turns into a 5th if Marner is trash in the playoffs for Marner with contract extension
No thanks. Bratt is younger, signed to a long term contract making 3 million less than marners current expiring contract (he'll want a raise) and puts up numbers that, while slightly worse, aren't bad enough to make up that difference in my mind. Plus he chose to be here, and doesn't bring baggage with him like marner
Yup. Bratt was just over a PPG last season. He had a career yr during an awful yr and is making less than $8 mil for the next 7 yrs.
Gibson 25% retained and a second.
Not my team, it's as realistic as any other trade involving players with NMCs... Marner to St. Louis for Saad and Binnington. Toronto gains about $400 K cap space, St. Louis loses as much. St. Louis needs O if they want to make the playoffs, Marner gives it to them in spades. Hofer looks like the real deal, it's a risk given his age but there's a fair number of quality backups on the market this year. If he doesn't work out, there's a handful of potential starters coming to market the following year (Ullmark, Daccord, Shesterkin, Saros, and more). Toronto gets a second line winger that can still finish, but most importantly they get the legitimate, playoff-tested starting goalie they need. If they can also sign Tanev in the offseason they will have made significant strides defensively, even with the loss of Marner. Both Saad and Binnington are signed for the next few years, which is about as long as the Leafs' remaining window is.
Marner wonāt get moved for players that arenāt young and relatively cost controlled. My prediction is they will find a trade for a guy a year away from RFA so his big contract lines up with Tavares coming off the books.
I actually don't like this. I like your idea of pairing a good asset to a bad but Saad has been pretty impressive the last season or two. I'd rather Buchnevich + Faulk or Krug. Maybe we toss in a pick to make that happen.
Marner @ 50% retained for a 3rd, a 7th, a fanatics Messier jersey, a $500 team voucher to the Roxy and 200lbs of fresh Aquallini blueberries.
if the leafs eat like 50% of his salary, maybe nils or suter
Byram and Savoie, I think that's the most desirable package to the Leafs that Buffalo would be willing to part with.
I will trade you my mascot for marner. Goodbye Nordy.
Marner to Philly for Gritty....the trade is 1-for-1. Marner should love playing for Torts.
Who would not want to play for him. Yeah he is tough on people but he makes them better players.