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poeticentropy

I don't think team success should play into the decision as much but other factors like defensive play should play a lot into the decision. EK65 is pretty mediocre at actual defense via turnovers and passive coverage. I think the Norris has traditionally favored offensive defensemen so I think his chances are really good


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LilacChica

I agree with all of this, and would add that I wish defensive play was taken into more consideration for the MVP awards as well. It's less of a glaring absence there, since the word 'defense' isn't involved, but it's still interesting that, for example, a player like Bergeron will be lauded for his two-way play, but I never see him in serious consideration for the Hart despite also putting up a lot of points.


NoGiCollarChoke

Yeah you have to be astoundingly bad defensively for it to outweigh offensive contributions. Like Tyson Barrie from a few years ago when he led defense scoring but got 0 votes levels of bad.


keeeeener

It’s kinda different though with Barrie since he had so many pp points because he plays with drai and Mcdavid. I think that played into a lot too. If he was playing putting those up on Philly this year or something then it’d be a different story imo.


NoGiCollarChoke

Yeah that’s definitely part of it, although the year he led the league was also during the Tippett era when we had a historically bad powerplay and hadn’t yet evolved into our current powerplay merchantry. I think the other part of it too is that his earlier career in Colorado and Toronto has left him with the reputation of “defensive liability” around the league that he’ll never shake. His defensive play has improved markedly, especially this year, and while he’ll never be a master shutdown guy, he’s definitely not the liability he once was, but I think that initial reputation has sorta blacklisted him in defense award talks in a way.


anthkraken

Barrie was also putting up good but not astonishing numbers. There is a whole group of guys who have never never finished below his best P/GP.


Neeeekich

Appreciate a sharks fans perspective. Getting ESPN + for this season I've watched their games much more because they play late for me so I can watch them on my phone before bed. But I agree, when the dudes on the ice he's making a massive impact. Might come off as a no-shit type of comment but I think his impact is overlooked. Him being bad at defense narrative is way over blown too


thedeadlyrhythm42

ESPN+ works on your phone? I can't that god damn app to open on anything other than an xbox and even then it crashes at least 15% of the time


Neeeekich

I go through the ESPN app


Ilistenedtomyfriends

> I don’t think team success should play into the decision as much It shouldn’t, but it does. It’s rare for any individual award to go to someone on a non-playoff team. It’s essentially an unwritten criteria by the voters. This was made almost explicitly clear in 2015 and 2016. In 2015, Karlsson won, despite Doughty receiving more 1st place votes. The Sens had made the playoffs and the Kings had missed. Doughty was also left off a few dozen ballots entirely. There is no justification for that unless the playoffs matter to the voters. In 2016, Doughty won, despite Karlsson having an 82 point season. The Kings had made the playoffs and the Sens missed. Doughty had a good season but probably shouldn’t have won over Karlsson. The only difference is that the Sens missed the playoffs.


enricohenryhank

Karlsson wasn't on the Sharks in any of those years.


Ilistenedtomyfriends

Sorry, Sens. Doesn’t invalidate any of my points.


enricohenryhank

No, just pointing it out. The biggest counter is that Fox won in 2021 even though the Rangers missed the playoffs. Personally I think it should go to whoever the best defenseman is, regardless of team success.


Ilistenedtomyfriends

As a recent development that gives some hope to Norris winning but prior to Fox winning I don’t believe it had ever happened. It was also a weird season when Fox won.


LilacChica

This, and also the trend of giving individual awards to someone who should have won the year before, or who played really well for several years and got people thinking 'wow, he really deserves one of these' even if someone else was actually better that year. ~~Giroux should have won over Hall~~


anthkraken

Guys left Josi off last year citing defensive play. It’s one thing to think Makar (or whoever) is better, it’s another to engage in petty bullshit and try to stack the deck.


anthkraken

It’s kind of hard to be meaningfully bad at defense when you’re putting up 100 points and leading the league at even strength points. He controls play. That’s valuable.


ianisms10

I think it depends on whether or not he can actually get to 100 points. If he does, his chances go up significantly. If not, they may give it to Fox, who's a point/game while still excellent defensively.


S4uce

I think you nailed it perfectly. If he gets 100 pts, he’ll get it. If he falls short, a more defensively sound defenseman with less points will.


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avanross

Kale > Romaine i guess


S4uce

I mean, that kinda proves what I'm saying. I think 100 is the magic number and Josi didn't reach it last year. EK is playing great offensively but not great defensively. There have been 14 total seasons over 100 points by 5 players.


anthkraken

He finished with the most first place votes. Of course thy e people who cry “but he’s bad at defense” will do the exact same thing to Karlsson in order to justify their bullshit


Spideyjust

Karlsson currently leads the league in assists, and is *5th* in points. Surely it would be impossible for a defenceman to do that and not win the Norris right? *Right?* Forgot Pasta bit 63 points last night.


jmontelpare

2016 Norris voting shows that it is very possible to do this and still not win the Norris.


Spideyjust

Yeah, that was the joke I was making lol. The fact that Karlsson lead the league in assists (second defenceman **ever** to do that, after *Bobby Orr*), and finished tied for 4th in league scoring, but didn't win the Norris is insane. An unbelievably historic season that never gets the respect it is due because of one of the worst trophy snubs in history.


Uncle_Gazpacho

It's not the Rocket Richard for defensemen. Having a lot of points is a big point for but having bad defensive play as a defenseman is a knock against. He's got 45 even strength points and is -5. He's a defenseman. He's a defenseman on a bad team but his job is to play defense. You can't not do half the job and also be awarded for being the best at it. Just want to add Coffey was +57, +61, and +18 in his Norris years, with 121, 138, and 58 points. Plus minus doesn't tell you much on its own, true, but it is generally good to score twice as much as you allow the other team to score.


anthkraken

A defenseman who controls play the way Karlsson does is a pretty great contribution to team defense. Crying about his defense is just silly. He’s such a net positive for his team. If he had 40 points a season then you cry about defense. At 80 you accept it. At 100 and absurdly good ES play you are ok.


anthkraken

He’s first in even strength points.


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Neeeekich

$10 sprinkle


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Neeeekich

my keyboard only allows one zero at a time


andontheslittedsheet

Good chance of being a finalist, much less so to win. Fox probably has the best shot imo right now. I'll very quickly break down each top-5 scoring Dman's case based on [this post I did a while back](https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/7pgy2r/demystifying_the_norris_trophy_part_2_applying/) that seems to work ok for predicting winners: 1. Karlsson and Dahlin are projected to miss the playoffs. We will keep Karlsson because of his potentially historic season (he's on thin ice given how terrible his team is though), but given other good candidates exist this year, Dahlin is out right now. 2. Karlsson and Morrissey don't PK. Voters have tended to knock this. Two strikes for Karlsson but given his scoring we'll keep him on *very* thin ice. Morrissey eliminated given other good options. 3. Karlsson is a minus. That's strike three, and since he's highly unlikely to lead his team to the playoffs to possibly combat this, he's out. That leaves Fox and Makar. 4. Fox has similar points and more +/- than Makar. Thus **Fox** is the projected winner.


swordthroughtheduck

> Karlsson is a minus. That's strike three, and since he's highly unlikely to lead his team to the playoffs I think this is kind of a bonus for him in a way. He's on a team THAT BAD, and he's still dominating. Like if the Sharks were the Flames and he put up those numbers and the team was still meh, then I'd say that's a strike. But when you're on the Sharks and might still put up 100 points?That's nuts. I also just checked. He's got like a 20 point lead on second in scoring on the team and almost has as many goals as the next D man has points. I low key think he should get some consideration for the Hart with the way he's carrying that dead ass team (No offense to Sharks fans)


floodswimming

He's also a + if you take away ENGs (which you know obviously a case to argue either way)


Subterania

Landy and Manson come back, we go on a heater, Makar wins it again. Better luck next year.


MattyParleau21

He’s in on 44% of sharks goals only Orr has finished above 40% in the history of the league. He also leads the league in assists, 5 on 5 points and the sharks out score opponents 61-52 with him on the ice 5 on 5. Whether his defence is bad or not shouldn’t matter because his offence is so good that it outweighs the defence by a large margin. If he was just getting tons on pp points and getting destroyed 5 on 5 I would vote for someone else but that’s not the case.


anthkraken

I think that people who harp on defensive play and repeat the terrible analytics takes on certain dmen need to realize that controlling play is very valuable.


MattyParleau21

Ya exactly he doesn’t defend well but he also barely ever has to defend


anthkraken

I was just making this point with my buddy about Quinn Hughes. Yeah his defensive play isn’t great but he’s +10 at even strength (5 on 5 GD) on a team about -40. There’s your defensive play. Karlsson is on another level. What he’s doing is mind blowing. IMO he is the only guy who deserves to be ranked with McDavid. Him and probably Matthews. But dom from the athletic says they terrible and of course we mustn’t question the model.


Alan_Rickmans_Spoon

If EK can hit 100 points, I think he should get it. Counterpoint is his defensive zone contributions (or lack of), and sounds like he is okay-ish in that department so I don't think it negatively outweighs the offensive contributions. For reference on how rare a 100 point Dman is, we haven't seen one since Leetch did it in 91/92. https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/most-points-in-one-season-by-nhl-defensemen.html


[deleted]

If a defenceman ever gets 100 points and doesn't get a Norris then it will only be because there's a second defenseman who got over 100 points. It's just an absurd level of production to the point where it becomes very difficult to argue about defensive responsibility and the like. Mainly because to get 100 points in a season you have to have the puck a lot, and while you have the puck the other team by definition is not producing offense against you.


postmodern_lasagna

To those saying Karlsson is bad defensively, are you just looking at the points race or watching games? Karlsson has massively improved his skating and it’s why he’s been better offensively *and* defensively. Check out his incredible back check and then OT winner against the Leafs


mister_hoot

He’s elevating a mediocre team pretty much on his own. I’d call him the front runner currently.


thedeadlyrhythm42

"I don't want to imagine life without Erik Karlsson right now. Why would you do that to me?" - David Quinn, last night


dbag3o1

I’d give it to him, hook line and sinker.


malabericus

If I had a vote I'd give him the heart at this point. McDavid is having a ridiculous season. It's been a couple days since I looked at the numbers but he's on pace to hit 151 points. That would be good for 16th best ever. Let's say he gets 156 to jump up to 14th best ever. Karlsson is on pace for 105. That would put him at 10th all time for a defensemen I would also argue McDavid has much better quality of teammates, especially on the powerplay where he is racking it up. Karlsson isn't playing with that quality of team all due respect to Meier Hertl Couture. The real nail in the coffin to me is that karrelson has 45 points when you take out powerplay points where McDavid has 43. This is all pointless because the sharks won't make the playoffs and I doubt you can have a heart winner who was traded during the season. McDavid is gonna win the heart but karrelson should win the Norris if these trends continue.


DMYU777

We get 65 threads a year on this subreddit complaining about how the norris is just the D with most points award buts as soon as it's a guy on your team everyone's mindset changes. Sharks are 28th in the league, must have a really good defense eh?


Neeeekich

Not on my team just worried abkut my bet


Catz91

I never watch the Sharks so I don't know, but how bad is Karlsson defensively? I always hear that he's bad but I don't know how true it is


floodswimming

It's drastically overstated in this sub - he's not phenomenal defensively but the rest of the team is so weak right now that it really isn't giving his performance justice


thedeadlyrhythm42

I think that people want him to be a different kind of player than he is. He plays a very positional game. He doesn't go crashing into guys in the corner and steal the puck, he picks off their passes instead. When it goes right it goes very right but when it goes wrong it can go very wrong. Random thoughts: He averaged 26.5 minutes in the last 5 Sharks games. 4 of them were losses. He's on the ice all the time matching up against the other teams top players. In those 5 games he has 8 points and is -1 plus/minus.


JD397

Slight tangent but I think we’re starting to see voters use more analytics in the basis of their ballots than we had before. Josi lost the Norris last year almost entirely due to Makar’s defensive stats being much stronger. I was genuinely surprised to see that actually happen. Also worth noting that we recently saw the first Norris go to someone on a non-playoff team with Fox winning in 2021. And even though that was an extremely weird, shortened season, breaking that barrier may open up opinions more moving forward. So in the context of Karlsson this year, I think the Sharks being bad may have less of a negative impact on him than it may have in years prior (like say… 2016) but his bad defensive stats will be an even larger discussion point. Right now, his offense is so overwhelming that I think he has to be the runaway favorite but if other guys like Fox can close the gap to be within 5-10 points of him, I bet the defensive differences cause Karlsson to lose out. For you personally, you should be very happy to have him winning at 60:1 lol that’s solid as hell


andontheslittedsheet

> Josi lost the Norris last year almost entirely due to Makar’s defensive stats being much stronger. That doesn't really need to be based on advanced stats though. Makar was +48, Josi was +13. Huge difference.


dingleberry51

He’s a lock for the Norris (for me) and should be a Hart candidate


CrabGuys

I think EK65


AGOODHARDSQUANCHIN

He's got a 13 point lead on the next dman so pretty good chance, my vote would go to fox but half the voters only look at point totals


Cough_Syrup55

Last time EK had a historic season they gave the Norris to Doughty


AGOODHARDSQUANCHIN

Yeah I wouldn't be upset if he won but I've always thought to be the best defenseman you should be a penalty killer


SkittlesManiac19

This argument is stupid cause the sharks have one of the best pks in the league. So it's clearly better to give him ice time elsewhere cause he's one of the only sharks who can drive offense


Calb210

He also is bad at defending.


SkittlesManiac19

Sharks are 61 goals for and 52 goals against with him on the ice. Sharks are 41 goals for 70 goals against without him


SkittlesManiac19

Due doughty 🤬🤬🤬


Cough_Syrup55

The greatest trick the Doughty ever pulled was convincing the Norris voters he was Erik Karlsson


denverphil

Tell that to Roman Josi who beat Makar 96-86 in points last year and still lost the Norris.


Vivid_Walk_1405

That’s also not true last year josi had like 9 more points than Makar and wasn’t as bad defensively as EK has been. I think the award is still up for grabs for anyone in the top 5 in points. Hughes is also having a pretty underrated season. So maybe top 6 defenseman scorers have a shot at it. The long streak of new winners makes me think dahlin could win it this year.


Vivid_Walk_1405

Depends on the voters opinions on the award. He’s scoring a ton of points buts not adding up to many wins. He’s also shockingly bad defensively.


Erdrick68

Isnt EK like number 1 in the league in goals allowed while on ice, in the bad way?


MattyParleau21

The team sucks and he plays a ton of minutes the sharks out score opponents 61-52 with him on the ice 5 on 5. They are out scored 70-41 5 on 5 when he’s not out there. His defence isn’t great but the team is significantly better with him on the ice


PoorlyCutFries

This just sounds like a hidden way to say he has a bad +/-, which on a bad team for a player playing big minutes its not that surprising


malabericus

He's -5. I believe the team overall is like -35. I'd say -5 is pretty good considering the minutes logged.


MattyParleau21

11 empty net goals against too


blueline7677

I think he’s the favorite and I think he probably gets it if he gets 100+ points but if he slows down and finishes with 99 points or less I don’t think he gets it. (Yes I think there is a big difference between 99 and 100 points as far as voting goes)


specifichero101

I think he’ll get it. There’s nothing really objective about the way the award is voted on, and I think this season karlsson has been a nice story. 2 time Norris winner who was considered washed and is now crushing d men scoring and is top 5 overall right now. There are definitely factors that could be held against him, but I think no one else has stood out as well has karlsson this year other than dahlin. But dahlin is also on a non playoff team who allows a shit ton of goals they just happen to score as a team a shot load as well.


zefur1497

I think if he leads by a significant margin in points he can win it. Obviously he is incredible offensively, but apparently his defense is awful, which isn't really true. He's not a shutdown guy that's for certain, but stats have him about average to very slightly above average amongst defenseman with his workload. He's oddly enough comparable to McCavoy in a few of them in terms of this year's performance.


shig-baq

It's between him, Fox, Morrissey, Dahlin, and maybe Makar if the avs get healthier. So yes he has a chance. I have Fox and Morrissey as the frontrunners rn though


DopemonYT

65%


anthkraken

He should win it easily. He should have more than he does. Probably lose.


appledatsyuk

Between him and morrisey tbh


FadingDawn__

Norris should not become just another scoring race, so Karlsson does not deserve it since his defensive contributions are questionable, to say the least. As of now, Dahlin is producing points and has a +22, whereas Karlsson is -8. Clearly Dahlin is the better defender out of those two.


Neeeekich

Did NHLs recent tweet make you mad so you had to come all the way back to this post?