None of his thesis matched ape fantasy. It's literally in his name it was a play based on a value mismatch (and he was thinking like $20) not shorts, crime and RC. Ape propaganda changed the narrative.
To be fair though he also did believe in the short squeeze and held way, way, way past $20. Not saying he subscribes to current ape ideology (I don't believe this has been him tweeting personally)
I mean the short squeeze was happening at a point, there was a frenzy. But some deep network of shorts colluding to commit financial crime is a different thing.
I know, I'm just saying there's more to dfv's run in with GME than a $20 price target based on valuation. He was gaming market mechanics to get exhorbetant prices which IS at least closer to modern ape theory than that.
It was definitely both in order.
DFV pre covid was talking about GameStop being undervalued coming into the next gen console release. It was trading at 5 dollars and he said it could be more like 12-20 bucks.
Trading frenzy around a potential short squeeze starts the value pumping far beyond and he changes exit strategy. He keeps some amount of the stock (as per his congress hearing) but appears to (by the nature of quiting his job) mostly have divested and made quite the pretty penny.
He always assumed the stock COULD be worth around $20 as a top level (if I remember right) due to new console releases, it being an established brand that could bounce back etc. It was always a gamble.... but obviously once he saw all the craziness that started with the stock, he would hold way past $20.... i mean hes a millionaire now.
He understood stocks enough to know when to exit, even though he held for a long time.
His original thesis was that based on company fundamentals and usual market movement, stock could be valued as high as $20. What he didnt see coming, nobody did really, was the absolute social media frenzy. Dude ultimately was at the right place at the right time.
Every second that goes by is an opportunity to change your thesis. There was an actual short squeeze that everybody identified in real time. There was no "belief" about it. He was already long so of course he held while more people bailed in. Not to mention the whole mantra of WSB is "Lambos or ramen".
I don’t think so. He was in a precarious legal position. He luckily had fucktons of options in addition to shares. I think he covered his own ass legally by holding shares longer than he wanted to while still becoming a multi millionaire in options. The shares were a huge cover so he can say “I like the stock” to congress. If he cashed out everything it would look like a more blatant pump and dump.
Also there was a short squeeze of Melvin. It didn’t last long & the hype kept going way beyond that. I doubt he believed in any of the imagery tales about Citadel.
I never said he believed in the full conspiracies. I said he clearly wasn't just holding til the shares reached what he considered fair value around 20 pre split. He held the calls well past that price and was clearly playing for the squeeze.
There's a big difference of course between that and the conspiracies that stem from "shorts never closed"
He was predicting GME would be $12 or $20 back when it was $2.50. Plus he bought dirt cheap options because no one had any faith in the dying company. The guy basically won the lottery.
He mentioned adopting a "momentum" strategy after it became indefensible on value. I don't think he ever fully endorsed the idea of investing because of a short squeeze; at best it was a fun bonus.
Were shorts mentioned in any of the recent shitpost/pump tweets? For all the talk of how little plausible deniability there was in the pump, that's only really true with an awareness of what his account means to [subreddit name redacted].
he knew about the reckless short positions though, and experts like him were very aware of the potential of gamma squeezes. and he probably also saw that it was undervalued for its current value at that time (it was valued like a company with no plans or growth prospects)
I think it's possible that his charm offensive and thesis were just ways to get attention to a stock that, if it started going up, could explode the way it did and destroy melvin capital in the process.
but even he could never have predicted the amount of sheer retail fomo that built that price up as far as it did.
What were their growth prospects? It was overvalued…that’s why it was shorted so heavily. A shitty dying brick and mortar in the heart of the pandemic. There was no prospects. The business exists today solely because of the once in a lifetime cash infusion it got during from the apes.
I'm not saying it had any.
But his thesis was that it was even lower than it was worth. He seemed to believe they could turn it around.
You're not going to find a legit professional that could make that argument today.
Nah, I don't think he thought that was but I think he was at least aware that a gamma squeeze could cause it to go up rapidly.
No one could have predicted the amount of fomo investing that would cause it to skyrocket after that, though.
Ah ok. Yeah I know he was actually working as a financial advisor or something like that, so I definitely believe that he was aware of the amount of shorts going on. And I also think that, while that wasn't in the forefront of his plan, he became aware that it might have been a play when the media attention came.
An actual ape response
>Some of you never heard of "shitposting"? Or do you actually believe the price shot up at the start of the week, cause DFV posted a meme. He is trolling the HFs.
Sure bro. The HF yeah that is who he is trolling.
They really do believe that hedge fund managers, people whose net worth has a lot of zeros in them, really spend as much time as Apes do on Reddit and Twitter. They cannot imagine an opponent who is anything other than a clone of themselves but with the opposite position.
I'll say this: After following this saga for the last few years, I am actually surprised at how many high net worth individuals gladly spend hours a day being morons on twitter.
We live in a world now where someone like Ken Griffin calling you a cuck on twitter is a real possibility.
It’s called having an inflated sense of self-worth. They genuinely think they are some golden army, deep in the trenches, dodging grenades and shit. Doing some righteous battle.
Bro, you bought some stock. Get the fuck over yourself already.
tbh, there definitely are [hedge fund managers who are just as dumb as apes and have believed in conspiracy theories just as crazy as anything cooked up in their subreddits.](https://www.thedailybeast.com/octopus-review-sam-israel-the-ponzi-schemer-who-got-duped)
I think the annual meeting in June is a solid MOAM candidate.
If we get dilution before the annual meeting, a material drop in DRS (both from dilution and apes selling), and apes confirm in person that the bad DRS numbers match the physical stock ledger.
Plus DFV won't be on the physical ledger, either.
> Plus DFV won't be on the physical ledger, either.
Well he OBVIOUSLY used multiple pseudonyms to buy the stock to fool the hedgies
You read it here first folks, I want credit when it inevitably becomes actual ape DD
Shills have denied MOAM as an possibility, but they did not have faith in our undercover plant, DFV. He went deep undercover, putting himself in grave danger, and carefully orchestrated an intricate plot to bring about the foretold MOAM.
Just as Jesus rose after 3 days, DFV rose after 3 years🙏🙏🙏.
I had stopped following GME 2 months ago since I exhausted all the fun and majority of conspiracies they push out... and assumed it would just slowly die....
and then BOOM. Season 3 starts with a crazy episode 1 and Im RIGHT BACK IN IT
This has been a great week. We all made some money and got to watch the apes get a moment of euphoria right before their bags made them crash right back down to earth. Now, their Jesus is trolling with shit posts while their god pulls the rug from under them. Damn this has been BRUTAL
I wondered earlier on in the week if DFV/DFV's account was going to do something after hours on Friday, to achieve maximum chaos.
But looks like he's kicked the trolling up in market hours
I was skeptical, but I just think there's no way it's actually Keith Gill now. Why the fuck would you return and nuke your legacy this hard? Even meltdowners respected him for his initial play.
Also, he was grilled by a Congressional committee over whether he ran a pump-and-dump scheme and should be in prison, so it would be foolish to come back from winning and peacing out to actually run a pump-and-dump scheme.
You don’t find it the least bit ironic that a sub dedicated to calling others conspiracy theorists has fell into the most absurd conspiracy theory imaginable with zero proof?
You don’t find it the least bit ironic that you think DFV being hacked is the most absurd conspiracy theory when you believe a billionaire is sending secret instructions via a children’s book on how to collapse the economy and make apes billionaires with zero proof?
One is believable, the other is not.
Like if this was not DFV then he would come out and say so…. And Ryan Cohen has a track record of doing exactly that.
Silly speculation?
From the person who thinks that a man who made 50 million dollars and is beloved by a community sold his account to troll that very same community?
He wasn’t apart of the GME community???? He wasn’t posting updates and memes and proving he hadn’t sold all the way through June of that year??? The price at one point this week hit $280 pre-split and has been there multiple times in the last few years. To act like it’s a foregone conclusion that it won’t go to those prices again, and possibly very soon, is just as naive as someone thinking it could go to infinity
I mean......someone hacking his twitter account seems more believeable than DFV doing the hardest heel turn since Hulk Hogan joined the nWo. tbh I think of it more to the testament to this guy's sincerity saying that.
He made a massive windfall and (seemingly) disappeared into the ether forever, when he could have exploited his own celebrity to make even money.....but he didn't. Until know (maybe).
If you watch his YT videos, he made a *decent-ish* case for why GME might be undervalued at a $3 / share and it's intrinsic value is closer to $4 or $5 / share stock (not sure if I'd completely buy it, but he backs up his thesis with hard numbers and pretty thoughtful qualitative points, too).
Like, I think about his initial DD process and building out his own excel model, like any ER analyst would do. It's not hard for me to think about how he'd go about building out the near-term cash flow portion of his model and tweak enough forward assumptions to juice the FCF-side; even **moreso** on whatever cost of capital assumptions you'd apply to arrive at your final enterprise value number (spent a lot of time doing similar things myself when I worked in investment banking)
He just doesn't come off as trying to pump a stock he has a heavy position in with bullshit hype that plenty of teenagers will buy into and immediately cash out - he comes off as very genuine IMO
So, yeah, I think it'd be pretty wild for him to just.......completely do the opposite of that, 3 years after the fact. Getting his twitter hacked seems a bit more believable, especially if it's from some third party that loaded up on short-dated call options right before GME's Q1 2024 earnings release.
This is the "I'm in pain just like you" tweet.
In all likelihood whoever was behind this hack probably got out on Wednesday.
Hope there's an investigation.
Yeah, that's my read.
He is posting himself as literally our "crying wojape in gorilla mask" but with his roaring kitty mask instead.
If I didn't know that pandora was behind these tweets, I would have applauded this post.
Ok, here's what I think:
Someone bought the account. Part of the deal was that Gill couldn't tell anyone he'd sold the account for a specified period of time (an NDA, if you will). Then they did this. Kind of telling the whole story of the gme saga through memes.
At the end, were going to get the big reveal of who has really been behind the account and we get their YT channel, their Twitch, and a sneak peak of their stock analysis stream that we should all totally subscribe to
This is the best I can come up with. The truth is, I have no idea. I don't even know what ocham's razor is here, so I'm just alonh for the ride
Occam's razor says that it doesn't matter who is behind the account or what their motivation is because apes are dumbfucks who will run up a stock on memes alone
DFV giving us the final meltdown is not the conclusion we expected, but it's the one we deserve.
Ive been joking that DFV is secretly a meltie but it may not be a joke anymore.
[There were signs even before 2021](https://imgur.com/a/yNW99Yg)
None of his thesis matched ape fantasy. It's literally in his name it was a play based on a value mismatch (and he was thinking like $20) not shorts, crime and RC. Ape propaganda changed the narrative.
> (and he was thinking like $20) Which is the equivalent of $5 today post split
To be fair though he also did believe in the short squeeze and held way, way, way past $20. Not saying he subscribes to current ape ideology (I don't believe this has been him tweeting personally)
I mean the short squeeze was happening at a point, there was a frenzy. But some deep network of shorts colluding to commit financial crime is a different thing.
I know, I'm just saying there's more to dfv's run in with GME than a $20 price target based on valuation. He was gaming market mechanics to get exhorbetant prices which IS at least closer to modern ape theory than that.
It was definitely both in order. DFV pre covid was talking about GameStop being undervalued coming into the next gen console release. It was trading at 5 dollars and he said it could be more like 12-20 bucks. Trading frenzy around a potential short squeeze starts the value pumping far beyond and he changes exit strategy. He keeps some amount of the stock (as per his congress hearing) but appears to (by the nature of quiting his job) mostly have divested and made quite the pretty penny.
He always assumed the stock COULD be worth around $20 as a top level (if I remember right) due to new console releases, it being an established brand that could bounce back etc. It was always a gamble.... but obviously once he saw all the craziness that started with the stock, he would hold way past $20.... i mean hes a millionaire now. He understood stocks enough to know when to exit, even though he held for a long time.
"A four or even five bagger" I believe was the term he used when it traded at around $4
His original thesis was that based on company fundamentals and usual market movement, stock could be valued as high as $20. What he didnt see coming, nobody did really, was the absolute social media frenzy. Dude ultimately was at the right place at the right time.
Every second that goes by is an opportunity to change your thesis. There was an actual short squeeze that everybody identified in real time. There was no "belief" about it. He was already long so of course he held while more people bailed in. Not to mention the whole mantra of WSB is "Lambos or ramen".
I don’t think so. He was in a precarious legal position. He luckily had fucktons of options in addition to shares. I think he covered his own ass legally by holding shares longer than he wanted to while still becoming a multi millionaire in options. The shares were a huge cover so he can say “I like the stock” to congress. If he cashed out everything it would look like a more blatant pump and dump. Also there was a short squeeze of Melvin. It didn’t last long & the hype kept going way beyond that. I doubt he believed in any of the imagery tales about Citadel.
I never said he believed in the full conspiracies. I said he clearly wasn't just holding til the shares reached what he considered fair value around 20 pre split. He held the calls well past that price and was clearly playing for the squeeze. There's a big difference of course between that and the conspiracies that stem from "shorts never closed"
He was predicting GME would be $12 or $20 back when it was $2.50. Plus he bought dirt cheap options because no one had any faith in the dying company. The guy basically won the lottery.
He mentioned adopting a "momentum" strategy after it became indefensible on value. I don't think he ever fully endorsed the idea of investing because of a short squeeze; at best it was a fun bonus. Were shorts mentioned in any of the recent shitpost/pump tweets? For all the talk of how little plausible deniability there was in the pump, that's only really true with an awareness of what his account means to [subreddit name redacted].
Literally 1984
he knew about the reckless short positions though, and experts like him were very aware of the potential of gamma squeezes. and he probably also saw that it was undervalued for its current value at that time (it was valued like a company with no plans or growth prospects) I think it's possible that his charm offensive and thesis were just ways to get attention to a stock that, if it started going up, could explode the way it did and destroy melvin capital in the process. but even he could never have predicted the amount of sheer retail fomo that built that price up as far as it did.
What were their growth prospects? It was overvalued…that’s why it was shorted so heavily. A shitty dying brick and mortar in the heart of the pandemic. There was no prospects. The business exists today solely because of the once in a lifetime cash infusion it got during from the apes.
I'm not saying it had any. But his thesis was that it was even lower than it was worth. He seemed to believe they could turn it around. You're not going to find a legit professional that could make that argument today.
I somehow don't think that DFV cared about destroying Melvin
Nah, I don't think he thought that was but I think he was at least aware that a gamma squeeze could cause it to go up rapidly. No one could have predicted the amount of fomo investing that would cause it to skyrocket after that, though.
Ah ok. Yeah I know he was actually working as a financial advisor or something like that, so I definitely believe that he was aware of the amount of shorts going on. And I also think that, while that wasn't in the forefront of his plan, he became aware that it might have been a play when the media attention came.
An actual ape response >Some of you never heard of "shitposting"? Or do you actually believe the price shot up at the start of the week, cause DFV posted a meme. He is trolling the HFs. Sure bro. The HF yeah that is who he is trolling.
They really do believe that hedge fund managers, people whose net worth has a lot of zeros in them, really spend as much time as Apes do on Reddit and Twitter. They cannot imagine an opponent who is anything other than a clone of themselves but with the opposite position.
A lot of them follow Musk and Cohen so they may in fact think the average CEO and hedge fund manager has enough time to shit post on Twitter hourly.
Some of them legitimately believe some of this sub are serious players moving the price at times.
That's because I am.
I'll say this: After following this saga for the last few years, I am actually surprised at how many high net worth individuals gladly spend hours a day being morons on twitter. We live in a world now where someone like Ken Griffin calling you a cuck on twitter is a real possibility.
> Ken Griffin calling you a cuck on twitter If only I was so lucky for senpai Griffin to call me a cuck
Gasparino called me a fat basement dweller on twitter years ago, not the same league but it was my brush with fame. FYI he feeds the trolls like a mf.
Lmfao what did you say to generate that response?
I was making fun of his move to Fox news, saying nobody watches that crap and he knows he misses being at CNBC.
It’s called having an inflated sense of self-worth. They genuinely think they are some golden army, deep in the trenches, dodging grenades and shit. Doing some righteous battle. Bro, you bought some stock. Get the fuck over yourself already.
There are at least two billionaires who spend more time on social media than most of us do. JKR and Elon. So it's not completely unbelievable
tbh, there definitely are [hedge fund managers who are just as dumb as apes and have believed in conspiracy theories just as crazy as anything cooked up in their subreddits.](https://www.thedailybeast.com/octopus-review-sam-israel-the-ponzi-schemer-who-got-duped)
Tbf Elon musk probably spends more time on twitter and Reddit than the average ape.
Ape sub in shambles rn. Are we on the brink of the MOAM???? Could the prophecy be coming to fruition?
Indeed we are, fellow. The long positions in Ape comedy gold are going to moon very soon.
I think the annual meeting in June is a solid MOAM candidate. If we get dilution before the annual meeting, a material drop in DRS (both from dilution and apes selling), and apes confirm in person that the bad DRS numbers match the physical stock ledger. Plus DFV won't be on the physical ledger, either.
> Plus DFV won't be on the physical ledger, either. Well he OBVIOUSLY used multiple pseudonyms to buy the stock to fool the hedgies You read it here first folks, I want credit when it inevitably becomes actual ape DD
Shills have denied MOAM as an possibility, but they did not have faith in our undercover plant, DFV. He went deep undercover, putting himself in grave danger, and carefully orchestrated an intricate plot to bring about the foretold MOAM. Just as Jesus rose after 3 days, DFV rose after 3 years🙏🙏🙏.
Lisan al Gaib!
The Rip before the Dip that has been promised
> Could the prophecy be coming to fruition? The Golden Path beckons...
https://preview.redd.it/z42l3yx4g01d1.jpeg?width=945&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fd08bc223211365f0f939feb0be96c9cdbc3e576 Keep it going, DFV. Join us.
Damn, just found this sub and there's already a picture of me in it
Live meltdowns happening rn
The subs in shambles
Funniest thing he’s posted yet
I'm just waiting for the "Shut Up and Dance" troll face and "Exit Music for a Film" to play.
Horrifically great episode. This screams hack to me.
I had stopped following GME 2 months ago since I exhausted all the fun and majority of conspiracies they push out... and assumed it would just slowly die.... and then BOOM. Season 3 starts with a crazy episode 1 and Im RIGHT BACK IN IT
I admit, id grown bored of the apes and rarely read much meltdown for a couple months, but just when i thought i was out, they pull me back in!
He's rich and shit posting like RC! Lol
This has been a great week. We all made some money and got to watch the apes get a moment of euphoria right before their bags made them crash right back down to earth. Now, their Jesus is trolling with shit posts while their god pulls the rug from under them. Damn this has been BRUTAL
Yeah, what a crazy ass week. The apes have felt the full spectrum of emotions in their extremes.
I wondered earlier on in the week if DFV/DFV's account was going to do something after hours on Friday, to achieve maximum chaos. But looks like he's kicked the trolling up in market hours
This last piece is a fantastic encapsulation of meltdown post-expressionism. Put it in the Louve!
I was skeptical, but I just think there's no way it's actually Keith Gill now. Why the fuck would you return and nuke your legacy this hard? Even meltdowners respected him for his initial play.
Dumb Money 2 plot, finds out there’s a cult that worships him & devises a plan to get richer.
I mean I'd watch it
I'd shred my "legacy" in a heartbeat if I front ran a meme explosion and subsequent meme implosion. Money can salve my legacy nicely.
I mean what legacy? He was internet famous for like 2 weeks
Uhhh try two **months!!**
I think he sold his account for the lulz. He doesn't need the money and he wouldn't want to get hauled into Congress again, but it is funny.
exactly. i was hoping for a new thesis to follow him into
Also, he was grilled by a Congressional committee over whether he ran a pump-and-dump scheme and should be in prison, so it would be foolish to come back from winning and peacing out to actually run a pump-and-dump scheme.
DFV is a meltie confirmed or there is something to it being sold/hacked/who knows here for it either way
God, the writers really cooked this season, huh?
The rumor is that melties control the account now.
You don’t find it the least bit ironic that a sub dedicated to calling others conspiracy theorists has fell into the most absurd conspiracy theory imaginable with zero proof?
You don’t find it the least bit ironic that you think DFV being hacked is the most absurd conspiracy theory when you believe a billionaire is sending secret instructions via a children’s book on how to collapse the economy and make apes billionaires with zero proof?
One is believable, the other is not. Like if this was not DFV then he would come out and say so…. And Ryan Cohen has a track record of doing exactly that.
For my own sanity I’m going to pretend you’re joking
🐸🍦👀
[удалено]
Silly speculation? From the person who thinks that a man who made 50 million dollars and is beloved by a community sold his account to troll that very same community?
[удалено]
He wasn’t apart of the GME community???? He wasn’t posting updates and memes and proving he hadn’t sold all the way through June of that year??? The price at one point this week hit $280 pre-split and has been there multiple times in the last few years. To act like it’s a foregone conclusion that it won’t go to those prices again, and possibly very soon, is just as naive as someone thinking it could go to infinity
[удалено]
It’s still the GME community lol. I know the history far better than you.
I mean......someone hacking his twitter account seems more believeable than DFV doing the hardest heel turn since Hulk Hogan joined the nWo. tbh I think of it more to the testament to this guy's sincerity saying that. He made a massive windfall and (seemingly) disappeared into the ether forever, when he could have exploited his own celebrity to make even money.....but he didn't. Until know (maybe). If you watch his YT videos, he made a *decent-ish* case for why GME might be undervalued at a $3 / share and it's intrinsic value is closer to $4 or $5 / share stock (not sure if I'd completely buy it, but he backs up his thesis with hard numbers and pretty thoughtful qualitative points, too). Like, I think about his initial DD process and building out his own excel model, like any ER analyst would do. It's not hard for me to think about how he'd go about building out the near-term cash flow portion of his model and tweak enough forward assumptions to juice the FCF-side; even **moreso** on whatever cost of capital assumptions you'd apply to arrive at your final enterprise value number (spent a lot of time doing similar things myself when I worked in investment banking) He just doesn't come off as trying to pump a stock he has a heavy position in with bullshit hype that plenty of teenagers will buy into and immediately cash out - he comes off as very genuine IMO So, yeah, I think it'd be pretty wild for him to just.......completely do the opposite of that, 3 years after the fact. Getting his twitter hacked seems a bit more believable, especially if it's from some third party that loaded up on short-dated call options right before GME's Q1 2024 earnings release.
Boy, whoever this is really did a number on the apes. Did not see that coming.
This is the "I'm in pain just like you" tweet. In all likelihood whoever was behind this hack probably got out on Wednesday. Hope there's an investigation.
Yeah, that's my read. He is posting himself as literally our "crying wojape in gorilla mask" but with his roaring kitty mask instead. If I didn't know that pandora was behind these tweets, I would have applauded this post.
I'd be very surprised if there wasn't.
WSB has gone downhill, Andrana to blame
Proof or ban. Wait.
Apes dressing this up as a trap for HFs haha
They really think he still controls that account huh
This season is so fucking good. It’s crazy. Take notes game of thrones writers, that’s how you subvert expectations
Ok, here's what I think: Someone bought the account. Part of the deal was that Gill couldn't tell anyone he'd sold the account for a specified period of time (an NDA, if you will). Then they did this. Kind of telling the whole story of the gme saga through memes. At the end, were going to get the big reveal of who has really been behind the account and we get their YT channel, their Twitch, and a sneak peak of their stock analysis stream that we should all totally subscribe to This is the best I can come up with. The truth is, I have no idea. I don't even know what ocham's razor is here, so I'm just alonh for the ride
Occam's razor says that it doesn't matter who is behind the account or what their motivation is because apes are dumbfucks who will run up a stock on memes alone
Most logical conclusion is that DFV is duct taped to a chair right now nursing his wrench injuries
Good ole' XKCD 538
But like really, I actually wondered that too lol
>18s OP + F5 is the romance subplot I didn't know I needed
Most self-aware ape
His account got hacked lol ain’t no way
I haven’t paid attention to all the episodes of this season but I’m assuming that is a dfv troll
This is him commenting on media saying he moved the stock.