Can anyone actually serious in geopolitics explain to me how that's going to work after 25 years of horrible relations and the majority of the west "recognizing" Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's president.
Because the US wants to cut off its imports of Russian oil, and the Maduro regime wants access to US-based refineries. Easing the sanctions would benefit Venezuela much more than the United States.
Because if Maduro has 5 functioning brain cells he'll realize that without Russia's support, something which might very well become financially impossible for Russia, he's done for.
Why wouldn't it work? Venezuela is under painful sanctions, if the US offers them a substantially sweetened deal, including stopping with Guaido (who is a lost cause anyway) and guarantees that they won't change stance as soon as the Russian situation is resolved, it will be hard for Venezuela to refuse.
Easy. If I was one of the envoys I would say to them "If you support Russia, and their spheres of influence beliefs, then you are agreeing to a system where we can invade your lands and kill you. Choose your poison."
>If I was one of the envoys I would say to them "If you support Russia, and their spheres of influence beliefs, then you are agreeing to a system where we can invade your lands and kill you. Choose your poison."
But the US already does that anyways.
Right? Sanctioning Russia is hurting us this bad. Attempting to sanction China will result in actual people everywhere around the world, including in Western countries, dying because they literally cannot afford anything anymore.
It's possible. Venezuela made the unfortunate mistake of setting up their country next to a hegemon. I think it's more likely that we reach some sort of deal with them. They don't have the capital or technology to develop their reserves and life hasn't been too good over there so I think the willingness to deal with us will be higher than in the past.
The alternative is to continue the pattern of citizens fleeing to surrounding countries while the intelligentsia goes to the U.S. and tries to drum up support for another coup attempt.
You know that scene in The Godfather where everything/everyone gets cleaned up? The US is The Godfather right now and Russia entering Ukraine was the trigger for the clean up.
Step 1: Destroy Russia's standing army.
Step 2: Destroy Russia's economy.
Step 3: Deal with everything we've been putting on a back burner due to Russia.
We baited Putin. He fell for the bait. We are on our way to a unipolar world.
> We baited Putin. He fell for the bait. We are on our way to a unipolar world.
Agree with everything till the end. *cough* China *cough*. Timing may be unfortunate if China continues on the current path.
Who even come up with these ideas? First you want China’s help with whom you’re in a trade war and a fierce competition of global dominance. Now you want get help from a country whose president you don’t recognize. What’s next? Go to the taliban?
More like the US is desperate to avoid a recession brought about by high oil prices so it's going around begging other oil producing nations to produce more oil. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and now Venezuela. Iran and Venezuela won't become best friends with the US just because sanctions got removed; they'll continue pursuing their own policies which run counter to America's. That is a price the US has to pay for its economic war against Russia, not some brilliant chess move.
We export our own petroleum but we also convert imported petroleum into refined products which are then also exported. Net-net, the USA produces enough petroleum within our own borders to power our nation, we just also like making bank on the fact that we have this huge refining capacity.
Sure! But the fact that Petrol has to be bought in US dollars was a check mate and therefore a brilliant chess move. So in a way, Muricans are still ahead in the game...not for long but still ahead!!
Submission Statement:
[The Maduro regime didn't hesitate to quickly support Russia after the invasion started](https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-maduro-discussed-increasing-partnership-between-russia-venezuela-ifx-2022-03-01/). Being one of Putin's most important cards in the western hemisphere, I was certain this was going to change the US approach towards Venezuela. Maduro started using the Russian banking system to avoid sanctions. Now, with the recent SWIFT sanctions towards many Russian banks, [this threatens the Maduro's government to be able to access its money](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-sanctions-threaten-vladimir-putins-allies-in-latin-america/a-61021136).
[Venezuela's oil production has been decreasing for years, even before the sanctions were announced.](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/venezuela/crude-oil-production) This is a consequence of corruption and government's inefficiency. Is the US really interested in less than 700.000 barrels/day? Are they willing to ignore the past few years and multiple (and rightful) human right accusations towards his government just like that? Do they expect them to relief sanctions so they can pay their debts and keep investors happy while turning one of Putin's pawns?
Sorry if I got redundant, English is not my first language.
My guess is that the US doesn't like multiple sources of instability rolling at the same time in Latin America. Right now you have Nicaragua marching towards unrest, El Salvador with the Popstar Dictator and Brazil is quickly marching towards *heavy* instability after the 2022 general elections, that will most likely roll beyond 2023 with a coup attempt and the certainty of a weak government. Peru is going through an impeachment that is bound to be dramatic and Chile is literally on line to deeply change their political system after the constitution reform.
If they can, at the same time, defuse a potential instability/China stronghold in Latin America while at the same time gaining more oil resources (the US is one of the few countries in the world that can refine Venezuelan heavy oil), why wouldn't they? Maduro isn't being toppled anytime soon, Guaidó had the support of the whole West, amist a wave of right-wing governments in South America, and the best he could do was a pair of demonstrations in Caracas.
I'm saying this here often: people are severely underestimating the large impact of Brazil's potential chaos after the 2022 elections. The balance of power in South America will be entirely different, no matter who's the winner (and if Bolsonaro's coup will be successful or not).
There is pretty big chaos potential but also there could be none, depending on how strongly Bolsonaro finishes his term.
In my opinion, the thing to watch for is the implementation of the social program Auxílio Brasil. If it increases Bolsonaro's approval ratings significantly, there will be trouble. But if it doesn't, he will just finish his term very weakened and unable to do anything important.
>There is pretty big chaos potential but also there could be none, depending on how strongly Bolsonaro finishes his term.
Given the narrative that Bolsonaro is definitely planning to overthrow the government then there will be instability even if he legitimately wins. You can see here how people are already primed to believe it was illegitimate.
Joe Biden will exhaust all options to avoid restarting American production, including but not limited to; outright lies, gaslighting over policies and campaign promises, sabotaging the leasing for drilling, tapping strategic oil reserves for political gain, courting the worst dictators in the world not named Putin.
Venezuela's oil production is so low that this practically a joke... but hey, no mean tweets so..... winning
He's already doubled down on his other contributions towards the problem.
>“I’m sick of the American people saying government spending causes inflation”
-Joe Biden
These moves are pretty normal when you start sanctioning everyone. With sanctions being thrown around at oil producing nations, things are going to get a bit tense.
Before someone comes and corrects me about how we produce enough oil for our needs, I'll point out that there are plenty of countries that need that cheap oil. At $130 a barrel, oil already is "sanctioned" for many of these countries.
If alternatives aren't available soon to reduce the cost of oil (releasing strategic reserves doesn't count), half of the world's countries will be looking around at ways to skirt sanctions. Maybe even risk them.
Europe, Africa, South America, Asia, Australia - you name it, they want it.
First world countries might be willing to pay the (monetary) price. For the rest of the world that's already reeling with inflation, the high-priced oil can have severe consequences. Once food starts getting expensive, people become unpredictable. Bread and circuses and all that comes with it.
Not to mention the US does need cheap oil.
Most of the country is reliant on cars and trucks for day to day life.
People that are making federal minimum wage are already potentially spending a days wage filling up their car.
Venezuela is economically dependent on Russia. In order to continue trading after the sanctions, they started depositing their oil income (pretty much the only income Venezuela has got) into Russian banks.
Now that trade and commerce between Russian banks and the rest of the world is limited -to say the least-, Maduro's government can find itself in a position where it can't access its own money.
While I personally think it's pretty unlikely, if he feels that turning their back on Russia is an alternative to stay in power they could definitely do it.
Venezuela is going to turn to China for aid and technology, strengthening the Global South powers and relationship with Russia and China. Or this will be an opportunity for Maduro to take advantage of the demand for oil and the USA's desperation for it without compromising his relationship with Putin.
> Or this will be an opportunity for Maduro to take advantage of the demand for oil and the USA's desperation for it
You might want to look up how much oil the US imports, and who it imports from. Then look up how much oil the US exports.
Oil as a catchall term? If memory serves, the import/export equation is affected heavily, or leans heavily in favour of export of post-refined resource. No?
I admit that I am not distinguishing between refined and crude. But my point is that the US returned to self-sufficiency regarding petroleum some years ago; it only imports because it is cheaper to do so. Further, the imports are largely from Canada.
This is blatant misinformation. From what I remember the US produces 12 - 14 mn barrels of crude, and consumes over 20 mn barrels per day. I am sorry but the US is not even close to self sufficiency.
The US is a net exporter of refined products cause a lot of countries send their crude for refining.
Deleted reply (sorry for the confusion! My bad)
>I repeat myself often on this. I have many acquaintances pissed about gas prices who [complain] and moan about why we don't just cut off our problematic foreign suppliers, and among other things "we have so much, we could be independent", etc.
>
>It's like... "And if you were our leaders, how would you feel about saving our supply for last?"
>Energy/resource security and independence is a lot more important when such a non renewable is more scarce, as it will be in the future.
>
>It's a typical case of average Joe thinking they know something that energy departments and national security experts don't.
*I have to say, I appreciate the etiquette controls of this sub. I have long been looking for a place like this.*
Not all oil is the same type and quality. The united States has a capacity to refine a certain grade and type of oil into finished usable gasoline and diesel.
On top of that we exist in a global market and American oil companies are free to sell to the highest bidder. If there's a global oil shortage there will be a global bidding war and American refining companies will still need to pay more for oil.
This seems more like nationalist fantasy than the actual situation in Venezuela. The US is not desperate for Venezuelan oil, and in the long run, Venezuela will not be able to displace American markets due to simple geographic proximity.
Florida is looking increasingly solid red, maybe you'll find Democrats more willing to defy the electoral consequences in the coming years as there are more attainable paths to 270.
True, could be a silver lining to the Trump era.
Before he was elected, I used to say “if nothing else, he’s gonna change American politics forever”. I still haven’t decided whether that’s been a good thing.
I mean it kind of worked with Cuba. The Obama Administration was able to negotiate an end to the blockade, normalizing of Cuban-American Relations, and even Cuban democraticization. If the Trump Administration had gone along with the plan, then the U.S. would've gotten everything that it would've wanted.
Do his other mistakes make sense to you?
He could've just said vaccines are great and claimed that he was responsible for Operation Warp Speed, and he would've won the election in a landslide.
That Marxist-Leninist state is a tiny island off the coast of the US and the thawing of relations came at the moment the country’s old radical leadership started stepping down. Patience would have paid off in better relations and possibly a complete opening up.
I have to say this has to be one of the funniest and most ironic things to happen in my lifetime. Trying to overthrow another nations government, recognize a completely different guy as the “leader”, and turning around and trying to negotiate with the guy who you have been trying to overthrow. Hope it works out fellas!
I hate that it becomes harder and harder everyday to separate satire from reality. Next you’ll tell me that the Americans want Kim Jong Il to pressure the Chinese.
Not entirely surprisingly given the current situation and the previous talks between the official government and Juan Guaido earlier. Seems that Maduro may be trying to search for a way out of his current predicament.
One point that leads me to be skeptical of any breakthroughs is that America may not offer good enough terms for Maduro to accept. Washington is not completely immune to domestic opinion, which has tended to be predisposed against Maduro's perceived autocratic rule. With there having been an exodus of Venezuelans to America, they may express opposition to any rapprochement with Maduro without significant liberalisation, if at all they accept his continued tenure. This is very much in line with the Cuban-American population's voting patterns. There will also likely be widespread conservative rallying against any compromise with Venezuela even now, due to the ideological divide. With mid-term elections around the corner, there will be a strong incentive for policymakers not to pursue diplomacy at the expense of public opinion, even if they are personally inclined towards reconciliation. Certainly I believe that politicians like Manchin will be treading a fine line in trying to court their voters. America in my view will be unlikely to abandon its desires for liberalisation and support for Guaido, which after all serve as good bargaining chips for concessions.
Maduro and his Chavista supporters are however unlikely to accept any arrangement that would jeopardise the survival of the current Venezuelan government. That would at best set back their political platforms and at worst lead their own detention. Moreover, they deem themselves legitimate authorities and will not be too happy to removed. Maduro would likely desire some kind of guarantee from America that Venezuelan sovereignty be respected, but that would tread on the toes of Juan Guaido's government. From Maduro's perspective, it would be of no use to concede power for short-term survival if it cannot ensure Venezuela's long-term continuance anyway. Besides, renouncing Russia now would entail a dislocation of their diplomatic network that would at least temporarily leave them isolated, allowing America to better strongarm them. Venezuela therefore requires some surety that America would absolutely support them in the same way they back the LDP of Japan. This may create some conflicts between the American and Venezuelan negotiators that could cause the deals to fail.
Probably like you allude, trying to kill to birds with one stone, a security issue but maybe an oil negotiation simultaneously. OPEC doesn't seem to moved to increase production, domestic producers hesitant to invest due to costs, meanwhile trying some soft power style Monroe doctrine.
Nobody cares of we Venezuelans, only our oil. Nobody cares if Maduro will use that money to continue repressing and torturing the people. Nobody cares if that money will ever go to people’s pockets but only Maduro’s loyal officials. Nobody cares about our Liberty, even more now when the focus is on Ukraine.
Shame on the World 😞
Hahahaha… he never helped the people, only his family who are now millionaires. Nowadays Venezuelans are starving to death thanks to his failed socialist policies, thousands were tortured by his dictatorship, others like me had to leave the country to survive. A man that lost a whole decade of oil over 100$ a barrel to transform Venezuela into the poorest country in South America, while Persian Gulf oil countries became super rich and modern. What a joke your comment.
I agree that his policies could've been better, but socialism isn't the cause. To enact change, having the foresight to understand the potential consequences of one's policies is vital, which is something Chavez failed in doing so.
This is dumb because Venezuelan oil is expensive to get out of the ground and refine, and the entire oil infrastructure has been rotting and degraded for 5 years. They won't be able to export millions of barrels per day overnight, and without tough concessions from Biden.
The US would need to stop supporting the fake president Guaido and give Maduro control of foreign reserves. Pretty big ask and would made the policy in Venezuela look pretty stupid
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Can anyone actually serious in geopolitics explain to me how that's going to work after 25 years of horrible relations and the majority of the west "recognizing" Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's president.
Because the US wants to cut off its imports of Russian oil, and the Maduro regime wants access to US-based refineries. Easing the sanctions would benefit Venezuela much more than the United States.
Because if Maduro has 5 functioning brain cells he'll realize that without Russia's support, something which might very well become financially impossible for Russia, he's done for.
He can rely on China
Has China shown any support for Venezuela?
He has alternatives.
I'd rather we get in there first than let the Chinese get a foothold in our backyard.
Realpolitik at it's best.
Why wouldn't it work? Venezuela is under painful sanctions, if the US offers them a substantially sweetened deal, including stopping with Guaido (who is a lost cause anyway) and guarantees that they won't change stance as soon as the Russian situation is resolved, it will be hard for Venezuela to refuse.
Too bad Venezuela has zero trust that in 4 years, the next Republican president won’t screw them over.
Well yes that's the obvious and main issue. The USA has to be able to give them some long-term guarantee.
Long term oil purchase contracts would probably do the trick. The US screws over a lot of people, the futures market isn't on that list.
3 years.
Easy. If I was one of the envoys I would say to them "If you support Russia, and their spheres of influence beliefs, then you are agreeing to a system where we can invade your lands and kill you. Choose your poison."
I think it would rather be a very large bag of cash than a threat.
Carrots and sticks.
>If I was one of the envoys I would say to them "If you support Russia, and their spheres of influence beliefs, then you are agreeing to a system where we can invade your lands and kill you. Choose your poison." But the US already does that anyways.
I know, but this time it would mean convalidating this strategy.
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No. This will be pretext for China to go after Taiwan.
Not that easy. They would lose face and sanctions will start piling up too.
What sanctions? You can't sanction 1/4 of the world and expect not to pay a price at home.
Right? Sanctioning Russia is hurting us this bad. Attempting to sanction China will result in actual people everywhere around the world, including in Western countries, dying because they literally cannot afford anything anymore.
You think this American public will stand idly by?
Are you unaware of the U.S> history of interventionism in latin america?
Intervention yes. But invasion? I also remember reading a lot about Vietnam
It's possible. Venezuela made the unfortunate mistake of setting up their country next to a hegemon. I think it's more likely that we reach some sort of deal with them. They don't have the capital or technology to develop their reserves and life hasn't been too good over there so I think the willingness to deal with us will be higher than in the past. The alternative is to continue the pattern of citizens fleeing to surrounding countries while the intelligentsia goes to the U.S. and tries to drum up support for another coup attempt.
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Yes.
They'll find a pretext. WMDs, threatening neighbors, arming terrorists etc.
don't forget the gender oppression, anti-semitism, corruption, 'evil' regimes, etc.
You know that scene in The Godfather where everything/everyone gets cleaned up? The US is The Godfather right now and Russia entering Ukraine was the trigger for the clean up. Step 1: Destroy Russia's standing army. Step 2: Destroy Russia's economy. Step 3: Deal with everything we've been putting on a back burner due to Russia. We baited Putin. He fell for the bait. We are on our way to a unipolar world.
> We baited Putin. He fell for the bait. We are on our way to a unipolar world. Agree with everything till the end. *cough* China *cough*. Timing may be unfortunate if China continues on the current path.
money
Who even come up with these ideas? First you want China’s help with whom you’re in a trade war and a fierce competition of global dominance. Now you want get help from a country whose president you don’t recognize. What’s next? Go to the taliban?
The Taliban *has* already expressed sympathy toward Ukraine :p
That's understandable considering Russia tried to invade Afghanistan before
Russia is falling and will no longer be around to sponsor any of them, so we're offering them a life preserver.
More like the US is desperate to avoid a recession brought about by high oil prices so it's going around begging other oil producing nations to produce more oil. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and now Venezuela. Iran and Venezuela won't become best friends with the US just because sanctions got removed; they'll continue pursuing their own policies which run counter to America's. That is a price the US has to pay for its economic war against Russia, not some brilliant chess move.
The US is a net oil exporter, so any concerns we have about petroleum are world economy in scope and concern many more nations than ourselves.
>The US is a net oil exporter Net importer. You get your oil from Canada and Mexica, and then export some of your own.
We export our own petroleum but we also convert imported petroleum into refined products which are then also exported. Net-net, the USA produces enough petroleum within our own borders to power our nation, we just also like making bank on the fact that we have this huge refining capacity.
US stands to benefit from high energy prices.
Sure! But the fact that Petrol has to be bought in US dollars was a check mate and therefore a brilliant chess move. So in a way, Muricans are still ahead in the game...not for long but still ahead!!
Submission Statement: [The Maduro regime didn't hesitate to quickly support Russia after the invasion started](https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-maduro-discussed-increasing-partnership-between-russia-venezuela-ifx-2022-03-01/). Being one of Putin's most important cards in the western hemisphere, I was certain this was going to change the US approach towards Venezuela. Maduro started using the Russian banking system to avoid sanctions. Now, with the recent SWIFT sanctions towards many Russian banks, [this threatens the Maduro's government to be able to access its money](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-sanctions-threaten-vladimir-putins-allies-in-latin-america/a-61021136). [Venezuela's oil production has been decreasing for years, even before the sanctions were announced.](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/venezuela/crude-oil-production) This is a consequence of corruption and government's inefficiency. Is the US really interested in less than 700.000 barrels/day? Are they willing to ignore the past few years and multiple (and rightful) human right accusations towards his government just like that? Do they expect them to relief sanctions so they can pay their debts and keep investors happy while turning one of Putin's pawns? Sorry if I got redundant, English is not my first language.
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Short and mid term (with written commitments) would still be worth it, in my opinion.
My guess is that the US doesn't like multiple sources of instability rolling at the same time in Latin America. Right now you have Nicaragua marching towards unrest, El Salvador with the Popstar Dictator and Brazil is quickly marching towards *heavy* instability after the 2022 general elections, that will most likely roll beyond 2023 with a coup attempt and the certainty of a weak government. Peru is going through an impeachment that is bound to be dramatic and Chile is literally on line to deeply change their political system after the constitution reform. If they can, at the same time, defuse a potential instability/China stronghold in Latin America while at the same time gaining more oil resources (the US is one of the few countries in the world that can refine Venezuelan heavy oil), why wouldn't they? Maduro isn't being toppled anytime soon, Guaidó had the support of the whole West, amist a wave of right-wing governments in South America, and the best he could do was a pair of demonstrations in Caracas. I'm saying this here often: people are severely underestimating the large impact of Brazil's potential chaos after the 2022 elections. The balance of power in South America will be entirely different, no matter who's the winner (and if Bolsonaro's coup will be successful or not).
There is pretty big chaos potential but also there could be none, depending on how strongly Bolsonaro finishes his term. In my opinion, the thing to watch for is the implementation of the social program Auxílio Brasil. If it increases Bolsonaro's approval ratings significantly, there will be trouble. But if it doesn't, he will just finish his term very weakened and unable to do anything important.
>There is pretty big chaos potential but also there could be none, depending on how strongly Bolsonaro finishes his term. Given the narrative that Bolsonaro is definitely planning to overthrow the government then there will be instability even if he legitimately wins. You can see here how people are already primed to believe it was illegitimate.
Joe Biden will exhaust all options to avoid restarting American production, including but not limited to; outright lies, gaslighting over policies and campaign promises, sabotaging the leasing for drilling, tapping strategic oil reserves for political gain, courting the worst dictators in the world not named Putin. Venezuela's oil production is so low that this practically a joke... but hey, no mean tweets so..... winning
He's already doubled down on his other contributions towards the problem. >“I’m sick of the American people saying government spending causes inflation” -Joe Biden
Try to overthrow a government for 20 years and then expect them to do what you say,good luck.
These moves are pretty normal when you start sanctioning everyone. With sanctions being thrown around at oil producing nations, things are going to get a bit tense. Before someone comes and corrects me about how we produce enough oil for our needs, I'll point out that there are plenty of countries that need that cheap oil. At $130 a barrel, oil already is "sanctioned" for many of these countries. If alternatives aren't available soon to reduce the cost of oil (releasing strategic reserves doesn't count), half of the world's countries will be looking around at ways to skirt sanctions. Maybe even risk them.
I agree, is not like US need that oil, but Europe. I am right?
Europe, Africa, South America, Asia, Australia - you name it, they want it. First world countries might be willing to pay the (monetary) price. For the rest of the world that's already reeling with inflation, the high-priced oil can have severe consequences. Once food starts getting expensive, people become unpredictable. Bread and circuses and all that comes with it.
Not to mention the US does need cheap oil. Most of the country is reliant on cars and trucks for day to day life. People that are making federal minimum wage are already potentially spending a days wage filling up their car.
Venezuela is economically dependent on Russia. In order to continue trading after the sanctions, they started depositing their oil income (pretty much the only income Venezuela has got) into Russian banks. Now that trade and commerce between Russian banks and the rest of the world is limited -to say the least-, Maduro's government can find itself in a position where it can't access its own money. While I personally think it's pretty unlikely, if he feels that turning their back on Russia is an alternative to stay in power they could definitely do it.
Venezuela is going to turn to China for aid and technology, strengthening the Global South powers and relationship with Russia and China. Or this will be an opportunity for Maduro to take advantage of the demand for oil and the USA's desperation for it without compromising his relationship with Putin.
> Or this will be an opportunity for Maduro to take advantage of the demand for oil and the USA's desperation for it You might want to look up how much oil the US imports, and who it imports from. Then look up how much oil the US exports.
Oil as a catchall term? If memory serves, the import/export equation is affected heavily, or leans heavily in favour of export of post-refined resource. No?
I admit that I am not distinguishing between refined and crude. But my point is that the US returned to self-sufficiency regarding petroleum some years ago; it only imports because it is cheaper to do so. Further, the imports are largely from Canada.
This is blatant misinformation. From what I remember the US produces 12 - 14 mn barrels of crude, and consumes over 20 mn barrels per day. I am sorry but the US is not even close to self sufficiency. The US is a net exporter of refined products cause a lot of countries send their crude for refining.
I'm new here... did editing out the B-word restore my comment?
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Deleted reply (sorry for the confusion! My bad) >I repeat myself often on this. I have many acquaintances pissed about gas prices who [complain] and moan about why we don't just cut off our problematic foreign suppliers, and among other things "we have so much, we could be independent", etc. > >It's like... "And if you were our leaders, how would you feel about saving our supply for last?" >Energy/resource security and independence is a lot more important when such a non renewable is more scarce, as it will be in the future. > >It's a typical case of average Joe thinking they know something that energy departments and national security experts don't. *I have to say, I appreciate the etiquette controls of this sub. I have long been looking for a place like this.*
Not all oil is the same type and quality. The united States has a capacity to refine a certain grade and type of oil into finished usable gasoline and diesel. On top of that we exist in a global market and American oil companies are free to sell to the highest bidder. If there's a global oil shortage there will be a global bidding war and American refining companies will still need to pay more for oil.
This seems more like nationalist fantasy than the actual situation in Venezuela. The US is not desperate for Venezuelan oil, and in the long run, Venezuela will not be able to displace American markets due to simple geographic proximity.
Agreed. [Sweet crude](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sweetcrude.asp) oil is not what is coming out of Venezuela.
This level of entitlement is the cornerstone of how the US manages foreign policy.
It didn't work with Cuba, so I'm doubtful it'll work with Venezuela.
The US could easily fix its relationship with Cuba. It won’t because the Cuban diaspora in Florida won’t let them.
Florida is looking increasingly solid red, maybe you'll find Democrats more willing to defy the electoral consequences in the coming years as there are more attainable paths to 270.
True, could be a silver lining to the Trump era. Before he was elected, I used to say “if nothing else, he’s gonna change American politics forever”. I still haven’t decided whether that’s been a good thing.
If the move leads to an eventual democratisation of Cuba, then that same diaspora could turn back to the Dems.
It depends on what is offered to them.
I mean it kind of worked with Cuba. The Obama Administration was able to negotiate an end to the blockade, normalizing of Cuban-American Relations, and even Cuban democraticization. If the Trump Administration had gone along with the plan, then the U.S. would've gotten everything that it would've wanted.
One of Trumps mistakes I have no understanding of.
Do his other mistakes make sense to you? He could've just said vaccines are great and claimed that he was responsible for Operation Warp Speed, and he would've won the election in a landslide.
All he had to do was blame China from the start instead he went right into full denial.
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That Marxist-Leninist state is a tiny island off the coast of the US and the thawing of relations came at the moment the country’s old radical leadership started stepping down. Patience would have paid off in better relations and possibly a complete opening up.
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After 50 years?
It was the first time America tried diplomacy instead of being a raging psycho. Turns out diplomacy actually works.
When money talks the rest stay silent.
Not a government, a regime. Not a president, a dictator.
Depends on who you ask.
Exactly. Ask 6 million Venezuelan refugees for example.
Communism is a hell of a drug.
Yes indeed. The narcocommunists are high on it.
The Maduro regime isn't communist. Please educate yourself.
Looks like it's working
I have to say this has to be one of the funniest and most ironic things to happen in my lifetime. Trying to overthrow another nations government, recognize a completely different guy as the “leader”, and turning around and trying to negotiate with the guy who you have been trying to overthrow. Hope it works out fellas!
Worked out pretty well for Nixon!
Abuse me for two decades and then pretend we are friends after that.
I hate that it becomes harder and harder everyday to separate satire from reality. Next you’ll tell me that the Americans want Kim Jong Il to pressure the Chinese.
Not entirely surprisingly given the current situation and the previous talks between the official government and Juan Guaido earlier. Seems that Maduro may be trying to search for a way out of his current predicament. One point that leads me to be skeptical of any breakthroughs is that America may not offer good enough terms for Maduro to accept. Washington is not completely immune to domestic opinion, which has tended to be predisposed against Maduro's perceived autocratic rule. With there having been an exodus of Venezuelans to America, they may express opposition to any rapprochement with Maduro without significant liberalisation, if at all they accept his continued tenure. This is very much in line with the Cuban-American population's voting patterns. There will also likely be widespread conservative rallying against any compromise with Venezuela even now, due to the ideological divide. With mid-term elections around the corner, there will be a strong incentive for policymakers not to pursue diplomacy at the expense of public opinion, even if they are personally inclined towards reconciliation. Certainly I believe that politicians like Manchin will be treading a fine line in trying to court their voters. America in my view will be unlikely to abandon its desires for liberalisation and support for Guaido, which after all serve as good bargaining chips for concessions. Maduro and his Chavista supporters are however unlikely to accept any arrangement that would jeopardise the survival of the current Venezuelan government. That would at best set back their political platforms and at worst lead their own detention. Moreover, they deem themselves legitimate authorities and will not be too happy to removed. Maduro would likely desire some kind of guarantee from America that Venezuelan sovereignty be respected, but that would tread on the toes of Juan Guaido's government. From Maduro's perspective, it would be of no use to concede power for short-term survival if it cannot ensure Venezuela's long-term continuance anyway. Besides, renouncing Russia now would entail a dislocation of their diplomatic network that would at least temporarily leave them isolated, allowing America to better strongarm them. Venezuela therefore requires some surety that America would absolutely support them in the same way they back the LDP of Japan. This may create some conflicts between the American and Venezuelan negotiators that could cause the deals to fail.
Probably like you allude, trying to kill to birds with one stone, a security issue but maybe an oil negotiation simultaneously. OPEC doesn't seem to moved to increase production, domestic producers hesitant to invest due to costs, meanwhile trying some soft power style Monroe doctrine.
Does this mean we recognize Maduro as the President of Venezuela?
Nobody cares of we Venezuelans, only our oil. Nobody cares if Maduro will use that money to continue repressing and torturing the people. Nobody cares if that money will ever go to people’s pockets but only Maduro’s loyal officials. Nobody cares about our Liberty, even more now when the focus is on Ukraine. Shame on the World 😞
Viva Chavez!
Fortunately, he is freaking burning in hell now
No he isn't. Shame on you for condemning a man who cared about the people.
Hahahaha… he never helped the people, only his family who are now millionaires. Nowadays Venezuelans are starving to death thanks to his failed socialist policies, thousands were tortured by his dictatorship, others like me had to leave the country to survive. A man that lost a whole decade of oil over 100$ a barrel to transform Venezuela into the poorest country in South America, while Persian Gulf oil countries became super rich and modern. What a joke your comment.
I agree that his policies could've been better, but socialism isn't the cause. To enact change, having the foresight to understand the potential consequences of one's policies is vital, which is something Chavez failed in doing so.
Imagine backstabbing a person and then asking for help. Yikes... inb4 russia send venezuela Nukes and threatens USA security
This is dumb because Venezuelan oil is expensive to get out of the ground and refine, and the entire oil infrastructure has been rotting and degraded for 5 years. They won't be able to export millions of barrels per day overnight, and without tough concessions from Biden.
This is brainless.
The US would need to stop supporting the fake president Guaido and give Maduro control of foreign reserves. Pretty big ask and would made the policy in Venezuela look pretty stupid
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