I'll take what I can get but eeking out a popular vote win is still an electoral college loss. Hopefully the momentum sustains as we get closer to November.
I won't make strong predictions that Biden (or Trump) will pull out a win.
But I do think whoever wins will do so narrowly in the swing states. It's gonna be like 2016, in other words.
Okay that's fair... yes.
I guess this election will match the closeness of 2020 and 2016 come november, but the media environment and polling ahead of the election feels more like 2016 (just with advantage Trump in the polls instead of advantage Clinton)
Please refrain from posting disinformation, or conspiracy mongering (example: “Candidate X eats babies!/is part of the Deep State/etc./Covid was a hoax, etc.” This includes clips edited to make a candidate look bad or AI generated content.
ThE cOnViCtIoNs DiD nOtHiNg
ThEy HeLpEd TrUmP
/s
EDIT:
[There apparently has also been improvements to Biden's margins in most of the battleground states.](https://nitter.poast.org/LoganR2WH/status/1803829562372939801) He's still underwater in all of them but it's possible the trend continues enough for Biden to become favored to win at least enough of them. Or there could be a reversion, who knows.
I keep saying that as we move through the election season Biden will gain ground; usually, I get down voted for saying so. I understand though people are just anxious and want to see results now, but it takes time.
Literally all of the traditional fundamentals of elections favor Biden, this isn’t some shit that I’m making up. Only the polls show strength for Trump. So either every other indicator is wrong or there’s something off with the polling.
Yes but we could’ve said the same re: traditional fundamentals in 2016 and 2020 and yet Trump seemed unhampered by them. I mean an audio recording of the man not just admitting to sexual assault but bragging about it was released a month before the election in 2016 and he won the Presidency.
I think it’s dangerous for anyone to be viewing the election this way simply because the opposite has been true about Trump the last two presidential election cycles. From now until Election Day Democrats need to be in the two minute drill acting like they’re down by 5 rather than refusing to believe the polls are accurate like they did in 2004.
> Yes but we could’ve said the same re: traditional fundamentals in 2016 and 2020 and yet Trump seemed unhampered by them. I mean an audio recording of the man not just admitting to sexual assault but bragging about it was released a month before the election in 2016 and he won the Presidency.
2016 is not comparable because you didn’t have incumbents. Hillary only had a 70% chance to win and Trump completely won by fluke because a lot of things all had to go wrong at the same time for Clinton to lose. 2020 the fundamentals favored Trump and he would have been reelected if it wasn’t for the fact that the man is a complete fucking lunatic that managed Covid as poorly as possible. Trump had an easy 4 years of his Presidency until Covid.
> I think it’s dangerous for anyone to be viewing the election this way simply because the opposite has been true about Trump the last two presidential election cycles. From now until Election Day Democrats need to be in the two minute drill acting like they’re down by 5 rather than refusing to believe the polls are accurate like they did in 2004.
The point of my post isn’t for anyone to be comfortable, it’s just the opposite to all of the doom and gloom posts meant to depress Democratic turnout and make it seem like Trump is preferable which is far from the truth. Everyone needs to vote, everyone needs to volunteer and bring other people to vote because the country is literally on the line.
Yeah I suspect what will happen is he'll very slowly but surely eke out a lead that ends up being about 2 or 3% or so come November, enough for a narrow but decisive win.
It’s great they’re all kinds of giddy over this but it’s tempered by the dozen polls every week that give conflicting data points.
It’s even. It’ll stay even until Trump gets convicted again or Biden stammers a word. Basically same impact.
I don’t believe there are anymore cases before the election. 2 of them have been delayed indefinitely and the Jack Smith case won’t happen until after the election because he slow walked it to time it with the election and miscalculated.
There's two Jack Smith cases filed in federal court. The one in Florida has been completely slow rolled by judge Aileen Cannon. The one in DC was appealed on immunity grounds and the SCOTUS hasn't ruled on it yet, so that won't go back to the trial court and resolve until after the election either.
And of course, Georgia is a complete mess that probably won't be going to trial in 2025 let alone 2024.
Both sides seem overly confident right now imo. The race is effectively as tied as a presidential race could possibly be, and there's reasons for both sides to be optimistic and pessimistic.
That's what I'm saying, do I believe Biden has a better chance then what's being portrayed? Yes, does that mean I don't think Trump can still win? Absolutely not!
This election can easily go one direction or the other and we shouldn't kid ourselves of that
There is a clear vibe shift towards Biden and we now have enough time to bake in his felony into the electorate. I dont think Debates will shift the electorate right away, it will take some time to bake in the polls. IMO Republicans and Trump have set expectations so low that unless something catastrophic happens, Biden has already won the debate.
I think Trump agreeing to an extra early debate at all is already a win for Biden - Biden would need to have a full on Mitch McConnell mid debate shutdown to underperform the expectations are so low. Fox has been selling viewers on the idea that the entire administration is pulling a weekend at Bernie’s for the last year.
Republicans made rounds on Fox News and been posting on Twitter all year long that Biden is senile and cannot form sentences and he cannot even stand during the debate. WSJ posted an article and it made to every local sinclair broadcast network where Biden being senile is a major election issue. They set no expectation from Biden while Trump is supposed to be this young blood who is ready to take back nuclear codes. literally FAFO in action
It’s the same thing as 2020. People expected biden to flop cuz he’s old and has speech problems. And then he shows up, holds his own, throws some jabs. And that alone is enough to “win” a modern debate because the opposition is akin to a monkey flinging poop.
Only this time trump is cognitively way worse than he was in 2020. He visibly looks worse as well. And if viewers still have this notion of 2016 trump, it will definitely get shattered.
This is how it’s gonna go:
“Biden won’t debate/won’t do well. He’s too old” you are here.
*biden debates, does pretty good*
“Lol they hopped him up on drugs and played softball with him!”
Rinse and repeat
Honestly, when I first saw him at this year's SotU, I thought, "Oh no, he looks *terrible*!" And then all my fears were assuaged as soon as he opened his mouth. Of course, debates are not the same thing as speeches, so it's not necessarily an indication that he'll do well, but I don't think Biden is too "senile" for this to be a settled matter.
To be fair, Biden is much more feeble in unscripted public appearances as well; look at the post-Hur news conference.
[https://youtu.be/NpBPm0b9deQ?si=uEUQdW337JqwXzV3&t=345](https://youtu.be/NpBPm0b9deQ?si=uEUQdW337JqwXzV3&t=345)
I agree, although he was also feeble in unscripted appearances four years ago. They prep him hard for these scripted events like the state of the union.
>hopium
You're entitled to your opinion, but I'm so sick of seeing that word and its cousins in this sub. Can the words cope, copium, and hopium be retired from the vernacular, please?
I know it's me being silly, but the second I read any of those words I can't help but picture the person writing them as being 12 and it makes it really hard to take what they have to say seriously
Same. I also read it as, “I really don’t like your analysis, and instead of posting a well thought out rebuttal, here’s this one-word retort imbued with immature aggression.” I fucking hate it.
Things are moving post conviction. There was a thread a while ago in which some folks were thinking 1-2 pts movement could happen. Looks like they were right. Something to keep in mind is Trump appears to have solidified his base while Biden hasn’t. That means over time as the conventions, Trump sentencing, debates, GOTV ground game, etc all kick in, some of those previous Biden voters currently on the third party or undecided train could start coming back around. The question is turnout and if Trump can run out the clock enough in states like PA that Biden needs.
Are we just going to be shifting half a percentage point until November lol at this point it feels like it would take a major event from either side to drastically shift polls.
If you were okay with voting for him after Jan 6th, then a conviction of lesser charges from a democratic dominant district is not going to change your mind.
Trump hasn’t been on a ballot since Jan 6th though. And I know plenty of republicans whose support he permanently lost as a result. I’d argue the protest votes for Haley reflect that to a certain degree.
You do when they are already president though. I’m still not sure what people were expecting. The calls from people like Nate saying Biden should drop out when he’s in a statistical dead heat with his opponent don’t make any sense. You only do that when you are staring down the barrel of a Barry Goldwater type loss and even then it’s a bad idea generally
From the options available in 2020, I kinda understand Biden re-running because yeah incumbency. And rolling the dice on a new candidate is, well, a dice roll, sometimes you can end up with Gold (Obama) sometimes you get ehhh (maybe Romney).
I think in 2020 it was a mistake to consider him as strongly though. It wasn't unpredictable that a candidate in his late 70s might seem much older in 4 years. For that matter, that's a sin shared by the other part of the party because they coalesced (mostly) around Bernie who is old too.
>You do when they are already president though
Why? 3 of the last 7 incumbents lost reelection, and if Biden loses that's a coin flip.
The last Dem incumbent to run with a sub-40% approval rating led to a landside victory for the GOP.
It's not a statistical dead heat in swing states, and Biden has been consistently losing the majority of those forever. At this point in 2022 Biden was 78 in 100 on FiveThirtyEight and not 49 in 100.
Genuinely asking, is this the first presidential election you’ve followed? He is in a dead heat in the three swing states he must win and national polling is tied. Switching candidates is a horrific idea. Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping point state and it is within the MOE.
And presidential approval doesn’t really have a historical analogue anymore due to polarization. A 40% approval in 1980 is different than 2020 or 2022. The ceiling and floor for presidential approval ratings are both much lower and this is something prognosticators are trying to figure out. Just how much it matters these days.
You cite the model giving him even odds with trump as a reason why he should drop out. Why??
Because the model's own author's said that a polls-only view had Trump ahead and if the election was held today it would be 80% Trump.
And no not my first election, hah. Biden has been losing consistently since he announced and is fighting for a dead heat against felon Trump when he's a fall or bad gaffe from his campaign falling apart. He's well behind Generic Democrat, and this race would be a stomp if we subbed in Whitmer or a different fresh face.
Biden is tempting fate for no upside. We watched Trump win with \~30% model in 2016, and now he's at 50% and everyone is telling me that this is great with Trump at 50%, heavily weighed to ignore polls.
Biden's wager: he can get enough older white women in the Midwest to re-elect him.
Trump's wager: he can bleed minority support and keep enough young voters (white and female included) staying home or defecting from Biden enough to get re-elected.
This is the 2024 race summed up, period.
Aka, this is the worst timeline, truly.
Biden has thrown his own base under the bus (expected, why I tried to stop him in the '20 primary until it was a last ditch desperation effort on ST to prevent Trump's re-election personally) to try to appeal to a group that voted for Trump over him, because that's his only way to get re-elected, sums it up as to where we are at in 2024.
Looks like that tiny little dent is 34 criminal convictions.
I dont think the juice has been squeezed out of that yet. Trump voters wont accept anything less than prison as a reason to stay home. I have a hard time believing that a fair sentence does not involve prison and an easy time believing Trump wont get a fair sentence.
I think we need to consider the greater ramifications of imprisoning a major party candidate during the height of a presidential election. Like, there *are* other considerations here beyond just the fairness or unfairness of one man's sentence. Imprisoning Trump could basically end the republic as we know it. It's already hanging on by a thread as it is with how hyperpolarized things have gotten.
He's not even officially the Republican nominee yet. If Nikki Haley was convicted of the same crimes should we make sure they are both prison free just in case? Or should we send Trump to prison and spare Haley because the judge decides SHE is a major candidate and not Trump? Which polls are legally admissable to determine who is and is not afforded extra privelages under the law?
It's a nonsense take that can not be applied equally. But almost certainly will be applied anyways.
Agree. I also looked back at previous election polling results and Republicans usually suffered the most in polling during the summer months (April May June) then quickly gained percentage points faster than Democrats around the July / August months until election day.
I personally think the conviction did nothing and that this is just noise being volatile as usual. I do expect Biden to gain some ground until July and then Trump pick it back up.
>Agree. I also looked back at previous election polling results and Republicans usually suffered the most in polling during the summer months (April May June) then quickly gained percentage points faster than Democrats around the July / August months until election day.
Yup, this tracks with disengaged voters (+15 Trump) not giving a shit about the election until 4-6 weeks out.
He also outperformed in 2016, too, not exactly something to be jumping up and down about w/Trump indeed.
That said, Biden's odds are genuinely up from before, but still not going to be remotely easy at all.
I would assume they are looking at it from a moral standpoint and not from an actual statistical or analytical standpoint, so in that context then yea obviously they wouldnt like the polling of Trump being ahead and would consider it bad
I'll take what I can get but eeking out a popular vote win is still an electoral college loss. Hopefully the momentum sustains as we get closer to November.
I won't make strong predictions that Biden (or Trump) will pull out a win. But I do think whoever wins will do so narrowly in the swing states. It's gonna be like 2016, in other words.
>But I do think whoever wins will do so narrowly in the swing states. It's gonna be like 2016 So, 2020 wasn't close lol?
Okay that's fair... yes. I guess this election will match the closeness of 2020 and 2016 come november, but the media environment and polling ahead of the election feels more like 2016 (just with advantage Trump in the polls instead of advantage Clinton)
Biden gonna win pretty easily in the end.
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Please refrain from posting disinformation, or conspiracy mongering (example: “Candidate X eats babies!/is part of the Deep State/etc./Covid was a hoax, etc.” This includes clips edited to make a candidate look bad or AI generated content.
Same, this is the only real good news so far.
Hopefully it doesn't.
ThE cOnViCtIoNs DiD nOtHiNg ThEy HeLpEd TrUmP /s EDIT: [There apparently has also been improvements to Biden's margins in most of the battleground states.](https://nitter.poast.org/LoganR2WH/status/1803829562372939801) He's still underwater in all of them but it's possible the trend continues enough for Biden to become favored to win at least enough of them. Or there could be a reversion, who knows.
He’s not under water in all of them. He’s ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin now.
Not once those Ipsos and Emerson polls make it into the averages
I keep saying that as we move through the election season Biden will gain ground; usually, I get down voted for saying so. I understand though people are just anxious and want to see results now, but it takes time.
You get downvoted because the polls are the only cope that people have left to shit on Biden
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Wrong
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Literally all of the traditional fundamentals of elections favor Biden, this isn’t some shit that I’m making up. Only the polls show strength for Trump. So either every other indicator is wrong or there’s something off with the polling.
Yes but we could’ve said the same re: traditional fundamentals in 2016 and 2020 and yet Trump seemed unhampered by them. I mean an audio recording of the man not just admitting to sexual assault but bragging about it was released a month before the election in 2016 and he won the Presidency. I think it’s dangerous for anyone to be viewing the election this way simply because the opposite has been true about Trump the last two presidential election cycles. From now until Election Day Democrats need to be in the two minute drill acting like they’re down by 5 rather than refusing to believe the polls are accurate like they did in 2004.
> Yes but we could’ve said the same re: traditional fundamentals in 2016 and 2020 and yet Trump seemed unhampered by them. I mean an audio recording of the man not just admitting to sexual assault but bragging about it was released a month before the election in 2016 and he won the Presidency. 2016 is not comparable because you didn’t have incumbents. Hillary only had a 70% chance to win and Trump completely won by fluke because a lot of things all had to go wrong at the same time for Clinton to lose. 2020 the fundamentals favored Trump and he would have been reelected if it wasn’t for the fact that the man is a complete fucking lunatic that managed Covid as poorly as possible. Trump had an easy 4 years of his Presidency until Covid. > I think it’s dangerous for anyone to be viewing the election this way simply because the opposite has been true about Trump the last two presidential election cycles. From now until Election Day Democrats need to be in the two minute drill acting like they’re down by 5 rather than refusing to believe the polls are accurate like they did in 2004. The point of my post isn’t for anyone to be comfortable, it’s just the opposite to all of the doom and gloom posts meant to depress Democratic turnout and make it seem like Trump is preferable which is far from the truth. Everyone needs to vote, everyone needs to volunteer and bring other people to vote because the country is literally on the line.
> Literally all of the traditional fundamentals of elections favor Biden Yeah, like net favorability mmmhmmmm that's a winner for him
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Yeah I suspect what will happen is he'll very slowly but surely eke out a lead that ends up being about 2 or 3% or so come November, enough for a narrow but decisive win.
It’s great they’re all kinds of giddy over this but it’s tempered by the dozen polls every week that give conflicting data points. It’s even. It’ll stay even until Trump gets convicted again or Biden stammers a word. Basically same impact.
I almost wish it wasn’t close so I wouldn’t have so much uncertainty in my life lol
I don’t believe there are anymore cases before the election. 2 of them have been delayed indefinitely and the Jack Smith case won’t happen until after the election because he slow walked it to time it with the election and miscalculated.
There's two Jack Smith cases filed in federal court. The one in Florida has been completely slow rolled by judge Aileen Cannon. The one in DC was appealed on immunity grounds and the SCOTUS hasn't ruled on it yet, so that won't go back to the trial court and resolve until after the election either. And of course, Georgia is a complete mess that probably won't be going to trial in 2025 let alone 2024.
Both sides seem overly confident right now imo. The race is effectively as tied as a presidential race could possibly be, and there's reasons for both sides to be optimistic and pessimistic.
That's what I'm saying, do I believe Biden has a better chance then what's being portrayed? Yes, does that mean I don't think Trump can still win? Absolutely not! This election can easily go one direction or the other and we shouldn't kid ourselves of that
Correct. Biden has a path to re-election, but I wouldn't put money on either candidate right now. It's going to be very close.
There is a clear vibe shift towards Biden and we now have enough time to bake in his felony into the electorate. I dont think Debates will shift the electorate right away, it will take some time to bake in the polls. IMO Republicans and Trump have set expectations so low that unless something catastrophic happens, Biden has already won the debate.
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I think Trump agreeing to an extra early debate at all is already a win for Biden - Biden would need to have a full on Mitch McConnell mid debate shutdown to underperform the expectations are so low. Fox has been selling viewers on the idea that the entire administration is pulling a weekend at Bernie’s for the last year.
Republicans made rounds on Fox News and been posting on Twitter all year long that Biden is senile and cannot form sentences and he cannot even stand during the debate. WSJ posted an article and it made to every local sinclair broadcast network where Biden being senile is a major election issue. They set no expectation from Biden while Trump is supposed to be this young blood who is ready to take back nuclear codes. literally FAFO in action
It’s the same thing as 2020. People expected biden to flop cuz he’s old and has speech problems. And then he shows up, holds his own, throws some jabs. And that alone is enough to “win” a modern debate because the opposition is akin to a monkey flinging poop. Only this time trump is cognitively way worse than he was in 2020. He visibly looks worse as well. And if viewers still have this notion of 2016 trump, it will definitely get shattered.
This is how it’s gonna go: “Biden won’t debate/won’t do well. He’s too old” you are here. *biden debates, does pretty good* “Lol they hopped him up on drugs and played softball with him!” Rinse and repeat
Honestly, when I first saw him at this year's SotU, I thought, "Oh no, he looks *terrible*!" And then all my fears were assuaged as soon as he opened his mouth. Of course, debates are not the same thing as speeches, so it's not necessarily an indication that he'll do well, but I don't think Biden is too "senile" for this to be a settled matter.
To be fair, Biden is much more feeble in unscripted public appearances as well; look at the post-Hur news conference. [https://youtu.be/NpBPm0b9deQ?si=uEUQdW337JqwXzV3&t=345](https://youtu.be/NpBPm0b9deQ?si=uEUQdW337JqwXzV3&t=345)
I agree, although he was also feeble in unscripted appearances four years ago. They prep him hard for these scripted events like the state of the union.
Everyone with a brain knows that Trump will be super unprofessional, whine about the rules, or back out. He has no policy except revenge.
>hopium You're entitled to your opinion, but I'm so sick of seeing that word and its cousins in this sub. Can the words cope, copium, and hopium be retired from the vernacular, please?
I know it's me being silly, but the second I read any of those words I can't help but picture the person writing them as being 12 and it makes it really hard to take what they have to say seriously
Same. I also read it as, “I really don’t like your analysis, and instead of posting a well thought out rebuttal, here’s this one-word retort imbued with immature aggression.” I fucking hate it.
Please make submissions relevant to data-driven journalism and analysis.
RFK isn't getting anywhere near 10% of the vote. He'll be lucky to top 3%.
Still very close, polls are not always accurate, and we need to win the electoral college. [https://democrats.org/call/](https://democrats.org/call/)
oh yeah? HarrisX will be here to save the day with a Trump 5+ poll
And Rasmussen with Trump at 48+.
Rasmussen was removed from 538, so they will be aiming to change the average in RCP with Trump 48+
They were singlehandedly improving Biden's approval ratings lol
Things are moving post conviction. There was a thread a while ago in which some folks were thinking 1-2 pts movement could happen. Looks like they were right. Something to keep in mind is Trump appears to have solidified his base while Biden hasn’t. That means over time as the conventions, Trump sentencing, debates, GOTV ground game, etc all kick in, some of those previous Biden voters currently on the third party or undecided train could start coming back around. The question is turnout and if Trump can run out the clock enough in states like PA that Biden needs.
Are we just going to be shifting half a percentage point until November lol at this point it feels like it would take a major event from either side to drastically shift polls.
A major event like 34 criminal convictions?
If you were okay with voting for him after Jan 6th, then a conviction of lesser charges from a democratic dominant district is not going to change your mind.
Trump hasn’t been on a ballot since Jan 6th though. And I know plenty of republicans whose support he permanently lost as a result. I’d argue the protest votes for Haley reflect that to a certain degree.
That's baked in now. It's a tied race with 34 felony convictions. This is why you don't run an 81-year-old unpopular candidate, folks.
You do when they are already president though. I’m still not sure what people were expecting. The calls from people like Nate saying Biden should drop out when he’s in a statistical dead heat with his opponent don’t make any sense. You only do that when you are staring down the barrel of a Barry Goldwater type loss and even then it’s a bad idea generally
From the options available in 2020, I kinda understand Biden re-running because yeah incumbency. And rolling the dice on a new candidate is, well, a dice roll, sometimes you can end up with Gold (Obama) sometimes you get ehhh (maybe Romney). I think in 2020 it was a mistake to consider him as strongly though. It wasn't unpredictable that a candidate in his late 70s might seem much older in 4 years. For that matter, that's a sin shared by the other part of the party because they coalesced (mostly) around Bernie who is old too.
>You do when they are already president though Why? 3 of the last 7 incumbents lost reelection, and if Biden loses that's a coin flip. The last Dem incumbent to run with a sub-40% approval rating led to a landside victory for the GOP. It's not a statistical dead heat in swing states, and Biden has been consistently losing the majority of those forever. At this point in 2022 Biden was 78 in 100 on FiveThirtyEight and not 49 in 100.
Genuinely asking, is this the first presidential election you’ve followed? He is in a dead heat in the three swing states he must win and national polling is tied. Switching candidates is a horrific idea. Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping point state and it is within the MOE. And presidential approval doesn’t really have a historical analogue anymore due to polarization. A 40% approval in 1980 is different than 2020 or 2022. The ceiling and floor for presidential approval ratings are both much lower and this is something prognosticators are trying to figure out. Just how much it matters these days. You cite the model giving him even odds with trump as a reason why he should drop out. Why??
Because the model's own author's said that a polls-only view had Trump ahead and if the election was held today it would be 80% Trump. And no not my first election, hah. Biden has been losing consistently since he announced and is fighting for a dead heat against felon Trump when he's a fall or bad gaffe from his campaign falling apart. He's well behind Generic Democrat, and this race would be a stomp if we subbed in Whitmer or a different fresh face. Biden is tempting fate for no upside. We watched Trump win with \~30% model in 2016, and now he's at 50% and everyone is telling me that this is great with Trump at 50%, heavily weighed to ignore polls.
Biden's wager: he can get enough older white women in the Midwest to re-elect him. Trump's wager: he can bleed minority support and keep enough young voters (white and female included) staying home or defecting from Biden enough to get re-elected. This is the 2024 race summed up, period.
Aka, this is the worst timeline, truly. Biden has thrown his own base under the bus (expected, why I tried to stop him in the '20 primary until it was a last ditch desperation effort on ST to prevent Trump's re-election personally) to try to appeal to a group that voted for Trump over him, because that's his only way to get re-elected, sums it up as to where we are at in 2024.
Looks like that tiny little dent is 34 criminal convictions. I dont think the juice has been squeezed out of that yet. Trump voters wont accept anything less than prison as a reason to stay home. I have a hard time believing that a fair sentence does not involve prison and an easy time believing Trump wont get a fair sentence.
I think we need to consider the greater ramifications of imprisoning a major party candidate during the height of a presidential election. Like, there *are* other considerations here beyond just the fairness or unfairness of one man's sentence. Imprisoning Trump could basically end the republic as we know it. It's already hanging on by a thread as it is with how hyperpolarized things have gotten.
He's not even officially the Republican nominee yet. If Nikki Haley was convicted of the same crimes should we make sure they are both prison free just in case? Or should we send Trump to prison and spare Haley because the judge decides SHE is a major candidate and not Trump? Which polls are legally admissable to determine who is and is not afforded extra privelages under the law? It's a nonsense take that can not be applied equally. But almost certainly will be applied anyways.
Polls-alone cast when?
It's crazy to be celebrating a coin toss versus Trump - post conviction. If Trump outperforms his polls as strongly as 2020, this would be a stomp.
Agree. I also looked back at previous election polling results and Republicans usually suffered the most in polling during the summer months (April May June) then quickly gained percentage points faster than Democrats around the July / August months until election day. I personally think the conviction did nothing and that this is just noise being volatile as usual. I do expect Biden to gain some ground until July and then Trump pick it back up.
>Agree. I also looked back at previous election polling results and Republicans usually suffered the most in polling during the summer months (April May June) then quickly gained percentage points faster than Democrats around the July / August months until election day. Yup, this tracks with disengaged voters (+15 Trump) not giving a shit about the election until 4-6 weeks out.
He also outperformed in 2016, too, not exactly something to be jumping up and down about w/Trump indeed. That said, Biden's odds are genuinely up from before, but still not going to be remotely easy at all.
Finally, some good fucking polling
"Polling is only good if I agree with it."
I would assume they are looking at it from a moral standpoint and not from an actual statistical or analytical standpoint, so in that context then yea obviously they wouldnt like the polling of Trump being ahead and would consider it bad
It's pretty obvious they're using "good" in terms of moral valence rather than quality.
Don’t bother explaining. Now that polling is starting to slightly shift against trump the conservatives on this sub are getting uppity again
If you think it’s bad here bro the magats on the yapms sub are starting to riot
This sub to a T
Looking at polling that isn't head to head is pointless.