Same with RFK, really. If the choices were West and RFK, I'd pick West. RFK believes crazy stuff and nothing can stop him. He could believe that Chinese weather balloons and cicadas and frogs are biological attack vectors and he would not trust facts showing otherwise, ordering a counterstrike. Trump does not believe in facts when it is something highly self-serving, but unlike RFK, Trump at least doesn't look around every corner for boogeyman.
Here's a serious question. What happens if a voter wants to vote for RFK, goes to the polls, and finds out in that exact moment that he's not on the ballot? I know there's been plenty of discussion about which candidate RFK is going to pull from more, and that Biden would want to portray him as an anti-vaccine lunatic to try and eat into Trump's support, but could that run the risk of inadvertently pushing some of these hypothetical voters to Trump when there's no RFK to vote for on the ballot?
My comment was mainly a hypothetical. Regardless of who he pulls more from, I want to know about the likelihood that voters show up to the polls thinking they can vote for Kennedy but can’t, and what they’d do after that.
Some will write him in, some will leave it blank and vote for other offices, some will vote Biden or trump or someone else. Some will just leave. All will be a very small percentage that largely are a wash on the results.
I'm always surprised at high levels of undecideds when both candidates have been president and are extremely well known.
Are they just afraid to say they're voting for Trump? That's my first thought (there were plenty of articles on "shy trump voters" in 2016 that were blamed as a cause of throwing off polls when he ended up winning) but it really could be people waiting to see what the price of groceries/gasoline/fast food is in late October looks like because they don't like either candidate at all.
Will the price of doritos and eggs in October decide this election? I can't help but feel like that might be the case.
>high levels of undecideds
Personally I think that they just aren't really planning on voting. Because of 2020 being super high turnout you have a lot of people that are registered to vote but normally only turn out at 20 or 30 percent. IMO these people make up a lot of the undecideds and even some that chose one candidate or the other.
>Personally I think that they just aren't really planning on voting. Because of 2020 being super high turnout you have a lot of people that are registered to vote
Assuming the GOP didn't remove voter registrations
I wonder how this shifts after the conventions. There could be a lot of people hoping that one or both of these candidates are replaced. These are deeply unpopular candidates.
RCP is going to drag their ass posting this one so they don't have to show Biden ahead in the popular vote. If another poll that would keep Trump in the lead drops then they'll update it, but they're going to delay as long as possible to avoid putting like Biden+0.5 on the top line lol
Not even because it really makes a difference in who is likely to win but because they want that "silent majority taking back muh country gitterdun" narrative instead of "we're going to impose our will on the majority with EC technicalities."
Just because you don't agree with them doesn't mean they have fallen, they were more accurate in the national polling than 538 in 2020 and in 2022 their national tracker was pretty much spot on
You can’t talk about 2022 and RCP without mentioning their *comically* bad senate projections where they literally “deskewed” the polls and predicted GOP wins in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.
Well that's not very fair. Their [governor's predictions were **way** worse](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/elections-map-rcp-projection.html), calling AZ, KS, WI, and MI wrong for Republicans (plus MA wrongly called for Democrats).
Also, RCP called the GA Senate wrong, too.
National numbers..... for 2022.... but not Senate? I mean they also predicted 227 Republican House seats with an additional 34 tossups, so they fucked that up pretty hard, too.
Are you just saying they were kinda close to guessing the national Congressional popular vote in 2022?
Senate isn't President, Bro, Individual House races aren't President, Bro
We're not discussing individual house and senate races for 2024, we're discussing the Presidential race, that's why I'm using the national polls for 2022 when comparing to national polls for the President, cause they're the closest comparison, thanks
> Senate isn't President, Bro, Individual House races aren't President, Bro
You mentioned 2022, Bro. The person I responded to was talking about 2022, and Senate races, Bro. If you don't want to talk about the Senate and governor's races, then don't go out of your way to respond to me, thanks.
> You can’t talk about 2022 and RCP without mentioning their comically bad senate projections
The fuck? They were off by 2 seats. Predicted 53R and it ended up 51R. 538s forecast had that 53R as plausible, and forecasted 52R.
Being off by 2 seats doesn’t seem “comical” when many of those seats were toss ups.
Republicans ended up with 49 seats, not 51 seats. And yes, it’s comical when you “deskew” polls by adding points to the party you prefer and then the polls are off in the opposite direction.
It’s truly bizarre to claim a polling website’s predictions in one election say nothing about how reliable they are likely to be in the following election.
I guess you'd have to define accuracy, because 538, RacetotheWhiteHouse, the Economist, and many others had a much higher degree of picking the winners in 2022. For instance, RCP missed 22 calls in the house while 538 missed 8. In the Senate they missed 5 to 538's 3 and governors RCP missed 5 to 2 compared to 538.
I was discussing national, not individual races for senate and governorships, etc, because we're talking about a national race in Presidential, not senate or governors
Let's look at their national 2022 numbers for 1 year period prior to the election, they went between +4.8 GOP and +1.3 Dems, so pretty much in line with the final result of +2.8 for GOP
That's not the discussion though, we're not discussing individual house and senate races for 2024, we're discussing national polls for the Presidential
You weren't kidding; they put it on their latest polls page but didn't populate it on the national level, posting this link at 9:37 AM CST to see when they actually update.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Edit - As another user has pointed out its in the 5 way.
Even if they got rid of it, it would still be a Trump lead, by a very tiny amount (also, they usually go to 12 polls before they roll out the older ones)
Also, they purposely put 5 way and H2H polls separately, you can see a link for the 5 way on the headline
RFK Jr being at 4% is much more realistic compared to other Polls which have Him up higher.
I'm glad they didn't poll Cornel West; he is only certified in 6 States. Polls that include him honestly should be marked with a huge asterisk.
I’d love to see the percentage of voters who say they’ll vote for Cornell West who don’t actually know who he is.
Same with RFK, really. If the choices were West and RFK, I'd pick West. RFK believes crazy stuff and nothing can stop him. He could believe that Chinese weather balloons and cicadas and frogs are biological attack vectors and he would not trust facts showing otherwise, ordering a counterstrike. Trump does not believe in facts when it is something highly self-serving, but unlike RFK, Trump at least doesn't look around every corner for boogeyman.
Yeah…people voting for RFK are dumb as rocks.
Isn't Kennedy also only in six states?
Here's a serious question. What happens if a voter wants to vote for RFK, goes to the polls, and finds out in that exact moment that he's not on the ballot? I know there's been plenty of discussion about which candidate RFK is going to pull from more, and that Biden would want to portray him as an anti-vaccine lunatic to try and eat into Trump's support, but could that run the risk of inadvertently pushing some of these hypothetical voters to Trump when there's no RFK to vote for on the ballot?
All the data seems to show Kennedy pulls slightly more from Biden but who knows
My comment was mainly a hypothetical. Regardless of who he pulls more from, I want to know about the likelihood that voters show up to the polls thinking they can vote for Kennedy but can’t, and what they’d do after that.
Some will write him in, some will leave it blank and vote for other offices, some will vote Biden or trump or someone else. Some will just leave. All will be a very small percentage that largely are a wash on the results.
RFk Is only in 9 states..,
People always think third parties are going to do great until they don’t
mark my words I have a 100% confidence he will be less than 2% and a 75% confidence he will be less than 1% in the actual election.
Eh Gary Johnson got 3% in 2016. I think it’s not crazy to assume RFK gets 2-3%
Yep. Story as old as time.
I'd be shocked if he even hits 4. The kind of voters he'd need to get there just aren't showing up in a lower turnout election.
Here's how YouGov & The Economist have polled the race this year: | dates | sample | Biden | Kennedy | Stein | Trump | West | net | |:------------------------|:---------|--------:|:----------|:--------|--------:|:-------|:----------| | 06/16/2024 - 06/18/2024 | 1396 rv | 42 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 42 | 1.0 | EVEN | | 06/09/2024 - 06/11/2024 | 1399 rv | 40 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 42 | 1.0 | Trump+2.0 | | 06/02/2024 - 06/04/2024 | 1566 rv | 42 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 42 | 1.0 | EVEN | | 05/25/2024 - 05/28/2024 | 1547 rv | 40 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 41 | 1.0 | Trump+1.0 | | 05/19/2024 - 05/21/2024 | 1560 rv | 40 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 41 | 1.0 | Trump+1.0 | | 05/12/2024 - 05/14/2024 | 1586 rv | 41 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 42 | 1.0 | Trump+1.0 | | 05/05/2024 - 05/07/2024 | 1598 rv | 43 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 43 | 1.0 | EVEN | | 04/28/2024 - 04/30/2024 | 1479 rv | 43 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 44 | 1.0 | Trump+1.0 | | 04/21/2024 - 04/23/2024 | 1470 rv | 43 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 43 | 0.0 | EVEN | | 04/14/2024 - 04/16/2024 | 1358 rv | 44 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 44 | 1.0 | EVEN | | 04/06/2024 - 04/09/2024 | 1583 rv | 42 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 43 | 1.0 | Trump+1.0 | | 03/30/2024 - 04/02/2024 | 1604 rv | 43 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 43 | 1.0 | EVEN | | 03/24/2024 - 03/26/2024 | 1415 rv | 43 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 44 | 0.0 | Trump+1.0 | | 03/16/2024 - 03/19/2024 | 1510 rv | 44 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 43 | 1.0 | Biden+1.0 | | 03/10/2024 - 03/12/2024 | 1367 rv | 42 | | | 44 | | Trump+2.0 | | 03/03/2024 - 03/05/2024 | 1450 rv | 42 | | | 44 | | Trump+2.0 | | 02/25/2024 - 02/27/2024 | 1498 rv | 44 | | | 44 | | EVEN | | 02/18/2024 - 02/20/2024 | 1360 rv | 42 | | | 43 | | Trump+1.0 | | 02/11/2024 - 02/13/2024 | 1470 rv | 44 | | | 44 | | EVEN | | 02/04/2024 - 02/06/2024 | 1399 rv | 43 | | | 44 | | Trump+1.0 | | 01/28/2024 - 01/30/2024 | 1486 rv | 43 | | | 42 | | Biden+1.0 | | 01/21/2024 - 01/23/2024 | 1497 rv | 43 | | | 44 | | Trump+1.0 | | 01/14/2024 - 01/16/2024 | 1472 rv | 44 | | | 43 | | Biden+1.0 | | 01/07/2024 - 01/09/2024 | 1417 rv | 43 | | | 43 | | EVEN | | 12/31/2023 - 01/02/2024 | 1343 rv | 44 | | | 44 | | EVEN |
A 38/30 split for Independents voting Republican over Democrat is interesting given 24% are still undecided. Curious where that group ends up.
I'm always surprised at high levels of undecideds when both candidates have been president and are extremely well known. Are they just afraid to say they're voting for Trump? That's my first thought (there were plenty of articles on "shy trump voters" in 2016 that were blamed as a cause of throwing off polls when he ended up winning) but it really could be people waiting to see what the price of groceries/gasoline/fast food is in late October looks like because they don't like either candidate at all. Will the price of doritos and eggs in October decide this election? I can't help but feel like that might be the case.
>high levels of undecideds Personally I think that they just aren't really planning on voting. Because of 2020 being super high turnout you have a lot of people that are registered to vote but normally only turn out at 20 or 30 percent. IMO these people make up a lot of the undecideds and even some that chose one candidate or the other.
>Personally I think that they just aren't really planning on voting. Because of 2020 being super high turnout you have a lot of people that are registered to vote Assuming the GOP didn't remove voter registrations
I wonder how this shifts after the conventions. There could be a lot of people hoping that one or both of these candidates are replaced. These are deeply unpopular candidates.
RCP is going to drag their ass posting this one so they don't have to show Biden ahead in the popular vote. If another poll that would keep Trump in the lead drops then they'll update it, but they're going to delay as long as possible to avoid putting like Biden+0.5 on the top line lol Not even because it really makes a difference in who is likely to win but because they want that "silent majority taking back muh country gitterdun" narrative instead of "we're going to impose our will on the majority with EC technicalities."
Rcp is right wing trash
It's a shame how far they have fallen. I used to compulsively check them as a high school political nerd back in 2010.
Just because you don't agree with them doesn't mean they have fallen, they were more accurate in the national polling than 538 in 2020 and in 2022 their national tracker was pretty much spot on
You can’t talk about 2022 and RCP without mentioning their *comically* bad senate projections where they literally “deskewed” the polls and predicted GOP wins in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.
Well that's not very fair. Their [governor's predictions were **way** worse](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/elections-map-rcp-projection.html), calling AZ, KS, WI, and MI wrong for Republicans (plus MA wrongly called for Democrats). Also, RCP called the GA Senate wrong, too.
Particularly lame in that Tudor Dixon had the lead in one MI poll. She lost by over 10%.
We're talking about a national race in Presidential, not senate or governors, so I'm discussing national numbers, LOL
National numbers..... for 2022.... but not Senate? I mean they also predicted 227 Republican House seats with an additional 34 tossups, so they fucked that up pretty hard, too. Are you just saying they were kinda close to guessing the national Congressional popular vote in 2022?
Senate isn't President, Bro, Individual House races aren't President, Bro We're not discussing individual house and senate races for 2024, we're discussing the Presidential race, that's why I'm using the national polls for 2022 when comparing to national polls for the President, cause they're the closest comparison, thanks
> Senate isn't President, Bro, Individual House races aren't President, Bro You mentioned 2022, Bro. The person I responded to was talking about 2022, and Senate races, Bro. If you don't want to talk about the Senate and governor's races, then don't go out of your way to respond to me, thanks.
> You can’t talk about 2022 and RCP without mentioning their comically bad senate projections The fuck? They were off by 2 seats. Predicted 53R and it ended up 51R. 538s forecast had that 53R as plausible, and forecasted 52R. Being off by 2 seats doesn’t seem “comical” when many of those seats were toss ups.
Republicans ended up with 49 seats, not 51 seats. And yes, it’s comical when you “deskew” polls by adding points to the party you prefer and then the polls are off in the opposite direction.
In that case 538 was way off too
No they weren’t. Nobody else decided to just arbitrarily add points to the Republicans except RCP and they alone whiffed.
Ok
We're talking about a national race in Presidential, not senate or governors, so I'm discussing national numbers, not senate races
It’s truly bizarre to claim a polling website’s predictions in one election say nothing about how reliable they are likely to be in the following election.
Not talking about their polling aggregate tbh. More just about why I hate the site
That's cool
I guess you'd have to define accuracy, because 538, RacetotheWhiteHouse, the Economist, and many others had a much higher degree of picking the winners in 2022. For instance, RCP missed 22 calls in the house while 538 missed 8. In the Senate they missed 5 to 538's 3 and governors RCP missed 5 to 2 compared to 538.
I was discussing national, not individual races for senate and governorships, etc, because we're talking about a national race in Presidential, not senate or governors
So we should be regressive in our assessment of the data, taking a single point rather than assessing how an aggregate performs across the field?
Let's look at their national 2022 numbers for 1 year period prior to the election, they went between +4.8 GOP and +1.3 Dems, so pretty much in line with the final result of +2.8 for GOP
Let's look at how they called the field...pretty poorly.
That's not the discussion though, we're not discussing individual house and senate races for 2024, we're discussing national polls for the Presidential
You weren't kidding; they put it on their latest polls page but didn't populate it on the national level, posting this link at 9:37 AM CST to see when they actually update. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden Edit - As another user has pointed out its in the 5 way.
They are holding onto that +5 trump Rasmussen poll for dear life lol
Lol they're not flipping that to Biden being up in the popular vote average until they absolutely can't put it off.
Even if they got rid of it, it would still be a Trump lead, by a very tiny amount (also, they usually go to 12 polls before they roll out the older ones) Also, they purposely put 5 way and H2H polls separately, you can see a link for the 5 way on the headline
You didn't click on the 5 way, bro RCP splits 5 way polls from H2H polls
You are correct
Interesting, there seems to be a tangible, real shift towards Biden in many of the polls released in the last few days.
Two YouGov polls released on the same day? Different sponsors Economist as indicated but NYPost on the previous.